August 22, 2024 • 51 mins
Are the San Francisco 49ers destined to regress? Can the Rams make another playoff push? Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are back for their eighth and final Division Preview talking NFC West.
Together they talk about the Arizona Cardinals' tough schedule, Simon's love affairs with the Seattle Seahawks' wide receiver room and much more.
Plus, for those interested in betting college football this season, Action's own Big Bets On Campus now has its own YouTube channel. Subscribe now for free early access to our conference preview episodes, our best bets, along with exclusive content all season long. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
my Campadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, so ointment.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Hello Chad. How you doing? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I feel kind of great. You know. I was in
the city for the past two days, and I got
home last night and I was sitting on the couch
with my wife. I was able to distract her long
enough from watching yet another season of Arrested Development to
talk about how excited I am that we're getting to
(00:59):
the star of the season every year in August. You
might feel this way too as a professional Better, Like,
I feel like we are on the precipice of falling
apart until these games start. Like everyone is so antsy,
everyone is so ready, everyone is so excited, Like we
just got to get to some freaking games. We got
college football Week zero starting on Saturday. We got Week
(01:23):
one for college football the week after. Then we are
into NFL. We are in our final installment of our
annual NFL Division Preview series. We are discussing the Nfcwash,
which I'm psyched about because you have said all offseason
the Niners to you have the best roster in the NFL.
(01:43):
We are going to put that theory to the test.
I will also tell you, Simon, I got a lot
of text from people over the last forty eight hours
about how high you are on the Raiders. One body
texted me and said, I nearly fell off the elliptical
when I heard Simon say how much he loved the Raiders.
(02:04):
And then I got another text from Mike Kerns, who
you know is the partner at the Churning Group who
approached me to launch Action in May of twenty seventeen,
before any of this existed. He's all on board with
you on the Raiders. All on board.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
It's a sad day when everyone is shocked that someone
said the Raiders can go eight to nine. It's dark
days right now for the Raiders. But yeah, this this
division is gonna be a little different the last division.
Right this division actually has some themes that we think
can make it to Super Bowl and like the last division,
so I'm excited to break this one down. Like you said,
the Air is getting Cripschad That's how you know football
(02:47):
is here. You go outside, it's sixty degrees out in
the northeast, are like, okay, this is football weather.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
It totally feels like that. Oh my god. I was
walking around yesterday and like jeans and a longsleeve shirt,
and I'm thinking to myself, this is my favorite weather
for clothes.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
It's the best.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Like I could wear these kind of clothes all day
every day. Maybe a light fleece, you know, maybe a
farty blazer. That's it. That's perfect. As a reminder of
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Action Networks popular college football podcast, Big Bets on Campus,
now has its own YouTube channel. In our next episode,
(04:12):
our next episode will be joined by the heartbeat of
the BBOC channel. Our experts Stucky and Colin Wilson to
Action Network Ogs, We're going to talk college football Week one.
Be sure to head to YouTube and subscribed to the
BPOC channel for early access to the best college football
(04:32):
betting coverage anywhere, or just follow the link in the
episode description. All Right, my enthusiasm, my optimism right now
is off the charts. Like fall weather in New York
is conquer the city weather. You walk around in the
streets and you're like, I got this thing on lockdown,
so I am ready to roll today. Simon Foe of
(04:57):
Vim and Vigor. As a reminder, as of said in
every one of our division preview episodes, nineteen of the
past twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone from
worst to first in its division. Well, it happened in
the NFC West last year, first place San Francisco forty
nine Ers, last place Arizona Cardinals. Here we go to
(05:23):
Sisco San Francisco forty nine Ers right now six to
one to win the Super Bowl. Minus one ninety five
in the division, eleven and a half is the win total.
Their strength of schedule fifteenth most difficult overall, it doesn't
(05:46):
appear to be that hard by ranking, but as we've
discussed with Warren Sharp, as Chris Raybond has said in
the Action Network podcast with Stuckey, which everybody should be
listening to, they have one of the worst rested advantages
in the league and they have three short week road games.
(06:07):
That is not easy. This is a team that historically,
as we've already seen in the preseason, will suffer from injuries.
Suffer from injuries. Two key players, whether it's McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Debo, whomever,
that could have an impact on their ability to reach
more than eleven and a half wins. O Line rank
(06:29):
twenty four. Surprisingly, we're part of the team only Trent
Williams is really the standout. We know there's issues there,
doesn't really matter though, like I know, we're going to
talk about this, but Shanahan's scheme is so good they
can get away with a weaker offensive line maybe d
line rank second Nick Bosa, Perennial DPOY candidate number three,
(06:49):
overall ed rusher Javon Vargrave, Top twenty five, Greater interior alignment.
According to PFF, you love this team, You love this roster,
super Bowl hangover, he's brought party a manager. Bill Barnwell
doesn't think they should pay him big bucks. I don't know, Simon,
can we be fading eleven and a half wins with
(07:12):
this a Francisco forty nine ers?
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Even a month ago, I would have said, no, this
is this is the perctly built teams. They're ready to
go on one last run before it all kind of
falls apart. It might be falling apart. Chat like, I
know the most important guy on this team, Trent Williams,
a man you mentioned. I wish you had brought up
that stat. You had this amazing stat last season where
we kept fading them when he didn't play, and it
was just basically, they're a totally different team. Kyle Shannan
(07:38):
team is totally different when he is not on the field,
and it's we're talking you know, seven years of data
right when he when he first got there, the first
thing he did was bring him along from Washington. This
is a big deal, Like, this isn't something where you
can just say, well, like you, I just told you
their offensive line was already really bad talked about. He
(08:00):
was the key, like he is the guy that makes
it all work. He's the one that he calls all
the signs, he knows everything for that defense, for that
offensive line. So the fact that he's not in the building,
and you know, the fact that if you if you
can't you know, understand how big of a deal Brandon
a Yuki is to blocking. It's a big deal. Like
(08:22):
he's one of the best blocking receivers in football. And
then you add to the fact that you know, this
guy had over one thousand and four yards and only
seventy five receptions. It's crazy, it really is. So you know,
this this is a team that right now, if at
a top five most important guys on their offensive side
of the ball, I would say they're missing number one
and number five right now. Like to me, they're they're
(08:44):
missing some really important pieces to this offense. And it's
Chad you said it were two weeks away, like literally
from two weeks mean, Chad will be in New York
and it's totally over. So it's it's a big deal.
So this is a team that I wanted to be
high on and now we might not. You know, not
that not that I don't have a dollar invest in
(09:05):
this team, but I haven't put a dollar more since
August first. Right, this is a team I've just been
I took a step back on just because what you
just said. Chat because I told you, if they don't
have these guys end of the season, now we're dropping
them down my list, like they're not, you know, a
top four, top five team if they have these two
guys out, Like that's such a huge deal to this
team where rock Curty needs all these guys to make
(09:27):
it work. As great as he's been, he's great because
the pieces around him, Like we say, he is a
good player, but he needs the pieces around him. And
in his career, his huge advantage was he's never lost
in his career to anyone in this division. Chef. Again,
it doesn't sound real, people, but that's the truth. Now
there is some weakness there, like there is something we
can build on with these other teams and try to
(09:49):
take advantage of So this went from being a really
boring division that we thought it would just kind of
kind of be business as usual too. They're all the
teams in this division should have some type of hope
if this is really how their season is going to start,
Because if Trent Williams does come in, you think he's
just going to pick right up. The dude's like thirty six.
He's gonna need a couple of weeks to get his
body right, give his legs back. Same goes with AYUK.
(10:11):
So it is a really interesting scenario right now, Chada,
where I want to tell people to take their under
but I'm a little hesitant too. I'd rather take value
other places in this division rather than giving this one out.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Well, look, Trent Williams, just so we're clear, there are
contract situations with AYUK. There are contract situations with Trent Williams.
Kyle Shanahan as recently as yesterday, less than twenty four
hours ago, said he's in contact with Trent Williams. Said
he feels like they are getting close to a new
deal that will get Trent Williams back into camp and
(10:44):
back on the team. But that is a tricky one,
and the stat you're talking about was last year. I
don't have it in front of me, but this is
directionally accurate enough to show his influence. When Trent william
and Deebo Samuel were on the field, the Niners were
undefeated and winning games by multiple touchdowns. When Trent Williams
(11:08):
and Deebo Samuel were not on the field, the Niners
were a five hundred team. Like they are. The lynchpins
to this offense. What Trent Williams is able to do
along the foundational elements of the offensive line with Deebo
Samuel can do out of multiple positions, whether there's a
wide receiver or at running back. They need both of
(11:29):
these guys to make it go. Trant Williams isn't there.
That is a huge loss for an offensive line. That
is kind of you know, mid as. The kids like
to say, it's meh, mid blah whatever.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Whatever.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
The like least enthusiastic, most dismissive face a teenager can give.
That is the forty nine Ers offensive line. But here's
what gets interesting to me always. I don't think there's
a coach in the NFL other than Kyle Shanahan, who
(12:05):
there's not a coach in the NFL who enjoys playing
with the pieces and is less phased by losing pieces
than Kyle Shanahan. His scheme is so good and he
is so smart about game planning and building plays like
it worries me, but I'm not going to fade him.
(12:29):
It makes me less confident they're the best team in
the NFC. But he is such a good coach, such
a good game planning coach.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
He is, but used to read a crazy study. He
was like a below five hundred coach for most of
his career, and we always said it's because he never
had his guy at quarterback.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
He never knows his quarterback and he goes through like
this team has just been snake bit with injuries. I mean,
how many years has this team been hurt with had
a key players injured for linked period of times and
then a domino effect, right, Like there have been years
where they're playing second thirsteen quarterbacks the entire season. So
(13:07):
I give him some benefit of the doubt, like when
the team is healthy. He also takes the NFC title
games into the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
I agree, But that's that's the problem here though, is
that we're talking about a team that the coach that
not that he needs things perfect, but he had it
perfect right. All the pieces are here right now. It's
really the defense. Even if their biggest weakness was the
secondary of the quarterback position, even that's been improved. Like
it's it's all built for right now. And it feels
(13:37):
like they're shooting themselves in the foot chat just not
getting these deals done. And the Trent Williams things just
mind blowing the fact that he has not been in
camp and the season starts in two weeks. It's just
it is crazy where I get it. He's older, so
it's like, well, they weren't going to push him that
hard anyway. He needs to get his body right, Like
even when I think Jason Kelsey was talking about it,
like you need to be in camp, you need to
(13:58):
get those football players underneath their belly because it just
gets you back into that rhythm. So he was saying
when he got older, Kelsey said, it takes a minute
to get his body right and get back into that
football shape. Like we said, Chad, the guy has less
than two weeks. I mean, okay, we hop off the
show he signs. Maybe I'll be like, Okay, I can
see why you want to take their over and maybe
take their division, but we're going to go through this
(14:19):
division here, these different teams. I think this is the
best this division's been and I don't know, five six years,
so it's the worst possible year for this team to
kind of be coming in a week. That's why I'm
just sounding the alarm here because it is such a
big deal. Yeap.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
Before we go on to the next thing, here's a
quick word from our producer, Matt Mitchell.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Okay, last, but not least, Uncle Mitch.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
Hey, Thanks Chad. I want to thank everyone for listening
to the show. I also want to thank all of
our loyal listeners for leaving so many reviews on Apple
Podcasts for us. As we say, every episode, feedback is
indeed a gift, and that's true now that ever before,
I also want to thank are most loyalisteners, without whom
(15:03):
I would not have a job. So I love and
appreciate every single one of you always, But many of
our most loyal listeners have voiced their concerns and irritations
regarding the amount of advertising on this program since our
move over to the volume. I see you I hear you.
I acknowledge you. I work in audio brothers and sisters,
(15:25):
I get it. But there's nothing I can do about that.
There's nothing chatter Simon can do about that. We're part
of volume now, that's part of iHeart. That's just how
the sausage is made in this particular sausage factory. So
I'm sorry about that. I'll just add it to the
ten thousand things in my life that I don't like
but over which I have zero control. So please enjoy
(15:49):
the free podcast. I hope you have a great season.
Let's win lots of bunny go bills, hug your mother,
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Speaker 1 (16:00):
All right, let's talk about the Rams, because the Rams
continue to be one of those teams that I think
you and I are impressed by and for some reason,
have been the last two seasons undervalued in the market.
Rams thirty to one to win the Super Bowls plus
three point thirty to win the division. Season win totals
(16:24):
eight and a half. Strength of schedule. Again, strength of
schedule is based on the projected win loss totals for
the season of their opponents, based on what oddsmakers are
saying sixteenth, most difficult O line rank sixteenth, really really
(16:46):
strong run blocking unit. Kevin Dotson second highest rated overall
guard according to Pro Football Focused in twenty twenty three,
got a massive new contract. D line ranks twenty three. Obviously,
the loss of Aaron Donald huge impact on the overall
skill of this unit. They have loaded up on D
line prospects. Right Kobe Turner one of the many second
(17:07):
year players who performed brilliantly as a rookie for them
last year, along with Kyron Williams, along with Pukin Nakua.
He was actually, believe it or not, Kobe Turner top
ten on PFF's list of overall interior alignments. So this
is a team I think we were super impressed with
their draft. We've been super impressed with how Sean McVay
(17:29):
and the executive staff there have turned this roster around
and went from all in got to win the Super
Bowl to now coaching young players up. On my mind
is over eight and a half.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
I don't mind it, but it's definitely a team that
coming into the year I was gonna be really high on.
And not that the Aaron Donald stuff suck there out
of the room, but it did a little bit for
me chat and then you add in the top that
this is most likely Staffs last year for the Rams,
Like it seems like they're kind of cooking the books
and get ready to kind of you know, not saying
they're one of the teams like the Raiders or the
(18:08):
Jets who want Dak Prescott, but that's what you year
behind the scenes, like these are the teams that have
been chatting that you know, that's the plan for next year,
right is trying to go after Dak. And it sounds crazy,
but they turned Stafford's deal into one year deals. So
I don't want to make it sound like it's all
good for the Rams, like this is by far the
best team, the second best team this division. I fought
(18:31):
that last year. This year it's a little different, like
I actually do like again we're gonna do. I like
the Seawk, I like Arizona. So it's it's easy to
see this team. You know, some people think they can
win it. I also could see this team being the
last place team in this division, like a lot of
there's a lot of options on the table for this
team right now, and it's all because of the unknown,
Like the fact they lost, you know, they did your DC.
(18:55):
That's I want to act like it's not a big deal,
But there's a reason he got that job in Atlanta.
Like he took a young group of guys last year
and turned them into something special. Now he's gone, and
we still believe in Sean McVay, right, that's the whole
point of betting this line right now. It's like I
didn't bet them last year because I knew Puka was
gonna be this incredible sleeper. It was like, Okay, I
had Stafford and I had you know, McVeigh at six
(19:17):
and a half wins. That was crazy to me. I
was getting butchered for I don't know nine weeks. They
were three and six and like literally it was never
any amount of people just just killing me. They went
seven to one end of the season like this. That's
how you want your better teams to be, right. It
takes them in to get going then once they figure
it out. I mean Stafford had them rolling on offense
(19:39):
like they were so good towards the end of the year.
He was barely even passing the ball. They could just
run the ball down your throat and there was nothing
you could do, so eight and a half chat, I'll
bet it with you. I like their over and it's
like an overwill take just because if he does stay
healthy Stafford, how do they not get to this number?
Like this is one of the best offenses in football,
And yeah, their defense is really young, but it's we're
(19:59):
not relying on them to win us games, right. But
the biggest issue at the end of the day, the
reason I won't tell you about the Super Bowl future
is just because Aaron Donald. Like I wish people could
understand why, Like because again people just trying to watch
a film like that. Why people in football just hype
this man so much? But like, Aaron Donald to me
is the best football player I've seen in my life.
(20:20):
Like I didn't see Lawrence Taylor play like I just
Aaron Donald to me. Anytime I put the tape on
the Rage, the control Raged. He played with fighting through
three to you know, two to three different blockers to
get to the quarterback and he do it was just
like incredible. Now that's gone. What I love. Two cha.
I saw they still have his locker untouched, so they're
still opening he comes back, which you know, my tune
(20:42):
might change if he does come back. Mid season. But
you know right now this is a team that there's
other teams in this division. I'd rather put Super Bowl futures
on than the Rams, just because you know there's there's
too there's too many little questions right now in their
defense for me to really get behind them long term.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
I feel like Aaron Donald had one of the most
perfect NFL careers. I'm not sure what the comp is
for other sports in the modern era. Steph Curry is
having something similar I think to Aaron Donald, in that
(21:20):
you are synonymous with one team, you win your title,
you are readily acknowledged at the best at your position,
you are readily acknowledged as a transformative player, you are
beloved by a franchise, and then you get out. And
(21:43):
he did it in a modern era where there is
so much changeover made so much money. It's easier to
do it when you're George Brett or Walter Payton, or
even a little bit Barry Sanders like to do it
the way that he has done, or a guy like
Steph Curry, those are the two things that that's the
(22:03):
guy who immediately comes to mind. We're in an age
of transition, an age of being able to move because
of the money when you were at the top of
your game. It's just amazing that he did what he
did and got out the way he did and.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
In his prime like he was. I think he was
the third highest graded the tackle in football last year.
I think at the end of the day, we all
know how much work these guys put in, and he
just said, like, I don't got the love for it anymore,
Like he doesn't. That's what made him so special is
he loved the work, like he was just putting so
much work in the off season. He said, she's the
off season hit. He realized, like, I just don't love
(22:40):
the grind anymore. So, Yeah, it's it's honestly, if you're
a football fan, it's a it's sad, sad day to
think about him not playing football this year. It's just
one of the all time greats and now he's just going.
Speaker 1 (22:52):
Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan. It's the eternal question, who would
you rather have coaching your team?
Speaker 2 (23:01):
Well, I mean we talk all the time head to head,
Kyle Shanahan. He owns McVeigh right, ched. I mean we
always talk whenever they play. We like to take whoever
the dog is in the matchup, and you know historically
we've covered but the team that's the dog just does
not win, Like whoever's the favorite usually wins these matchups.
(23:22):
So yeah, if I had to pick one, I'm with you.
Though McVay has got the jewelry. I just there's something
about that Kyle Shanahan run blocking scheme. I just can't
get away from it.
Speaker 1 (23:33):
It is so weird, right because if you look at it,
Kyle Shannan has a lot of guys who have gone
on to be NFL coaches from his staff. Sean McVay, basically,
you shook the guy's hand at some point in your
coaching career for about four years there you were getting
a job as a coach in the NFL, Right, And
(23:56):
I do think there's something that feels the term of
the moment, if you're paying any attention to politics, I'm
not making a political statement. Is joy. There's something joyful
about the way Sean McVay coaches, something enthusiastic that feels
(24:17):
different than sort of the very business like approach you
get from Kyle Shanahan. Even in like the way you
see them communicate with their teams. You've seen you know,
the behind the scenes or the hard knocks with Sean
McVay and the way he's communicating with the Rams. And
we've seen some of the behind the scenes stuff from
the Receiver show on Netflix with Kittle and Samuel and
(24:40):
the way Kyle Shanahan communicated with his players. I don't
doubt his players love them, but it just feels like
there's a little bit more boyish enthusiasm with Sean McVay.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Yeah, I'm with you on that one.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
I wonder if I'd rather play for Sean McVay than
Kyle shann I do, like I wonder if I think
Kyle shann is a genius, He's going to alway, He's
put me in a position to succeed no matter the situation,
unless it's overtime in the Super Bowl. Oh what I
read a play for Sean McVay, who's clearly great at coaching,
but also just might make it ten percent more fun.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
Would you take the Rams over?
Speaker 1 (25:15):
And now, Yeah, I totally would. Yeah, because of Matthew Stafford.
At the end of the day, I think about what C. J.
Straus said.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
I'm saying and I feel like.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
You said this, and this is stuck in my head
for two years now, we were underestimating how great Matthew
Stafford is, and I think we have now seen because
he was injured and then came back, and this team
got so much better when he's on, He's on in
any kind of system, and with the talent that they
have Cooper Cup, Puka naku A, Kyron Williams, you know
that is a good offensive team with a lot of confidence.
(25:48):
And I keep thinking about what C. J. Shroud said, like,
if there's one guy he's watching, it's Matthew Stafford that
says everything to me.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Yeah, I agree, I mean I again, people know my
love for this Rams team. I wish I was higher
on them. It's just I have to take a step back.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Yep, I get it. I get it all right. So
you mentioned Seattle sixty five to one to win the
Super Bowl plus seven hundred to win the Division. Seven
and a half is the win totals, strength the schedule
fifteenth easiest O line rank thirty one, loaded with backups,
(26:23):
D line of rank seventeen. But I do think it's
to me, it's seventeen. And if you've got arrows next
to it, it's a green arrow pointing up because I
think this unit has a lot of potential because of
Mike McDonald's scheme. But I was surprised to say you're
high on Seattle. I know we're going to get to Arizona,
but I'm surprised to say you're high on Seattle. I
(26:44):
didn't have that in our in our sort of cool.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Yeah, I'm high in that. I thought they're gonna be
the worst team in football coming to this season. I
was like all in on fading this team, and luckily
someone spoke to me just about what you just said,
Mike McDonald, where it's like I should give this guy
more credit for what he did with the Ravens last year.
Like he was an incredible defensive schemer. He put all
his players in the best positions they could possibly be in,
(27:12):
and even that playoff loss that was not on him,
Like he did really well against that Chiefs team in
the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
We all know what that playoff loss was about.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
Yeah, exactly. So I hated this team coming to the
season just because Chad just said, you have Gino Smith
behind arguably one of the worst offensive lines of football.
To me, that screams disaster, right, Chad, Like, I don't
know how they're going to make that work. But now
you're gonna mix in. They have such a great mind
on defense where it's like, okay, maybe they'll just play
(27:42):
super smart conservative, like they can make it work. Can
they win this division? No, But we got a team
coming up that might be able to. But this isn't
the team I'm really gonna bet large futures on just
for them winning the division. But it is a team that,
you know, I do have him at seven wins the
or over runner seven and a half. Thankfully I'm towards
the under. I don't mind if they're a little on
(28:04):
the over here. Again, I just like this division. It's
like I can see it breaking the right way for
them that you know, if it's Sam Howard, you know
Smith that quarterback. They have the weapons, like we talked about,
they have really good guys on the outside. It's just
what are we gonna get from this offensive line. It's
like that's the biggest question, or that's why I can't
bet them to win this division because it's like, even
(28:24):
if I'm running the perfect simulation of the perfect world
where everything breaks right for them, I never had them
breaking eleven wins, and I think you need to have
over eleven wins to win this division. So this is
the team I am really excited about. But that's the biggest,
the biggest fear right now. It's just the old line,
like you're one of the worst in football. It doesn't
look like there's anything on the horizon. Look, there's no
(28:44):
guys out there that could add or trades they can
make to really improve it. At this point, it is
what it is right So to me, this is the
team that we're gonna learn really quickly by October kind
of what their identity is, what their personality is, are
their new head coach and if he is the savior
of with this defense, because you like, they got the guys,
Like on defense, they do have a lot of really
good pieces, even to the secondary. It's like they've been
(29:06):
drafting for the secondary the last couple of years and
it's like, okay, now you have you have the players,
you have the first round picks. You just needed the
teacher to come in and kind of make it work.
So Pete Carroll got a little bit of a rod deal,
but they're much better at where they're at right now,
going with a really sharp defensive mind. When the best
on football, and they would have been rolling it back
with another year of Pete Carroll, which got nothing against Pete.
(29:28):
I just think of all the older coaches, I understood
the most why they were like, Okay, we need change here.
So you know, a ton of pressure on Meg McDonald
year one. It could be a total disaster. I mean
that's what I really thought it was going to be
a couple of months ago. But I've just come around
on his coaching style where it's like, now you're gonna
have this defense ready every week. They're gonna be on
the more prepared teams. The biggest question chat is going
(29:50):
to be offensive line and can they keep that quarterback healthy.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
I really wish Matt Mitchell you might have to find
the drop. I believe it was this time last year
where Simon Hunter might have declared Jackson Smith and Jigba,
Tyler Lockett and DK metcalf as the greatest trio of
receivers in history. Am I am? I misremembering that?
Speaker 2 (30:19):
You are? You keep mis remembering the end sentence. Possibly
I don't remember. I left myself. Yeah, don't worry, I
left myself and out. We went back and looked I
left myself and out.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
So I don't remember any qualifiers. I just remember the
enormity of the statement.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
The phrase he used was arguably the best wide receiver
room in history. So arguably was the qualifier. Like saying,
you know, buffalo wings are arguably better with ranch versus
blue cheese.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
It's just factually incorrect and it makes you look like
kind of an asshole.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
Well, I just don't because people don't understand because they're
up in the middle of nowhere the West Coast. It's
like DK is a stud, Tyler Lockett's a stud, and
Jim Budd is just I don't know. I loved him
at Ohio State, so I.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
Didn't you're he was great last there's no yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
But at the end of that I put that on
Geno Smith, like he has the weapons, but apparently he
does not have the old line.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
He does not have the old line. It's interesting. We've
had so many conversations about coaches in the last two episodes.
The literal investment we make in some of them. Right,
you talked about Antonio Peers with the Raiders, and you
you are making an investment if you bet the over
with the Raiders that he is going to be a
(31:37):
version of Mike Tomlin, a version of Mike Tomlin who
can get so much out of this team. Like we
saw at the end of last year, they are not
very talented. And although there are incredible hype videos of
Gardner Minshew working out looking like he's out of the
(32:01):
nineteen seventies, I don't know that Gardner Minshew is going
to turn this team into what we think it can
really what we might expect it to be. Over six
and a half wins, who knows. You're really investing in
Antonio Pearce in his ability to turn that team around.
We just said the same thing about Kyle Shanahan. If
you're investing in the Niners at over eleven and a half,
or even the Rams at over eight and a half,
(32:22):
you're investing in the coach's ability to draw out the
best of their players with their scheme, being able to
overcome injuries, being able to overcome contract holdouts, etc.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Etc.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
Mike McDonald, great coordinator at Michigan, great coordinator with Baltimore.
That's a huge investment and a huge statement to be
able to say I would go over seven and a
half because I believe this coach is going to be smart,
enough to figure out what to do with his defense
and keep them in the game and keep the defense
off the field because they're running something conservatively offensively old statement.
Speaker 2 (32:56):
That's times what I would do, though, it just seems
like their identity should be their defense, where it's like
they just don't have the pieces yet on offense to
really make that their identity.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
Almost as bold as saying Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and
Jackson Smith in Jigma and Jigma are the greatest trio
of receivers in NFL history, not possibly possibly greatest trio
of receivers ever. All right, last team in the NFC West.
I want to love this team, Yeah, I want to
(33:27):
love this team so much. The Arizona Cardinals. One hundred
to one to win the Super Bowl plus thirteen hundred
to win the Division. Six and a half is the
win total seventeenth hardest schedule. This is what started to
worry me when I dug in, because you and I
like superficially been talking about the Cardinals all off season
(33:47):
and a Kyler Murray upswing. And this is when I
got scared. All Line rank twenty six, D line rank
thirty second. They're only thirty two teams in the NFL.
So their pff D line rank heading into the year
thirty second. They played so hard last year they were
(34:13):
two and five in one score games. I know we
all made fun of Jonathan Gannon before the season began
last year. He was so awkward socially in those videos
when he's meeting Kyler Murray or giving pep talks. But
I thought he coached him up and I thought he
had them playing hard no matter the circumstance. And even
(34:34):
Kyler Murray, who had a reputation as being someone who
could be aloof, seemed to be invested in working really hard.
Keep me on the ledge here.
Speaker 2 (34:47):
Yeah, this is like the Panthers. The Panthers, we were
what we took them at eleven, ten to one, nine
to one to come worse the first. That's how I
feel about the Cardinals here, Like this is the team
that I'm betting that thirteen to one to win this division.
It's just a team that could shock the world just
because it's all there offensively, Chad like, they got all
(35:08):
the pieces they need. They have a defensive coach. I
think he'll be able to figure it out on defense.
Like do you really think this team's gonna win twelve
thirteen games. No, but there is a world where they
can do it. Like there is a world where this
team can turn around and really have an incredible season.
It's like we've seen that time and time again, and
it happened in the football right. The team gets in
the right scenario with the right offensive pieces and they
(35:29):
can make it work. And that's how I feel here.
Like the fact they took marmon Aris Junior is my
favorite draft pick up the whole draft. Like I love
they could have traded out right, they could have traded back,
maybe got a couple of D lineman Chad. Instead, they
went for the once in a lifetime generational talent, which
I want teams to do. It's like you get the guy,
you get your Larry Fitzgerald. Now they're good, hopefully for
(35:52):
ten to fifteen years at the wire position with marmon
Aris Junior. And you know McBride the tight end and
no one talks about this guy is an absolute stud.
If you look down the stretch, he's one of the
best tight ends in all football. And Kyler Murray loved
using him, like he felt comfortable throwing to this guy.
So you know, we got Kyler year two after the
ACL injury, right, I believe that's what he injured. It's
a big deal, like we should see him back to
(36:14):
his old running self and I mean being Chad's worst
lost of our lives. I think it was on the Raiders.
We had the Raiders against Arizona. I believe they are up,
you know, fourteen, with a couple of minutes to go,
and Arizona comes all the way back and Kyler Murray
ran the length of two football fields on the two
point conversion and just found a guy in the back
of the end zone. Like that's that's what we're hoping here.
(36:34):
It's like this kid does have magic. There's a reason
he was a number one pick, you know, there's a
reason that he's still the guy for this team. And
when I talked to you know, different people that are around
the team and read stuff by the beat writers, it
seems like it seems like Chad that he's gotten over,
you know, his childish stuff of leaving early to go
play video games. It seems like he's growing up where
(36:55):
he is the first guy in, last guy out, which
I know it sounds corny, but to me, that's such
a big deal when you're the quarterback, like you're setting
the example. If you're not working the hardest, what's the point,
Like you're the guy, like you know, at the end
of the day, all that matters is how hard, how
much execution, how much preparedness this quarterback has. And I
(37:15):
feel like Kyle Leer's kind of turned that corner. You
kind of realize you turn into a little bit of
a joke in this league. So I'm just so excited
for this team. It sucks too where they're Of all
the teams we talked about three four months ago, I
felt like this was the most beloved team by most professionals, right, Chad,
like even talking Week one, like the pros love them
when they're plus seven to seven and a half against
(37:36):
the Bills. I think that linees down to six and
a half now for Week one. But this is just
a team that the professionals love, and I think even
these last moments, I've noticed the fantasy football community loves
this team now. Right, they do have these guys on
offense that they do really love. Even if James Connor
goes down. I like the backup trade Benson, like they
have good, good pieces all across the offense. You just
(37:59):
said the question years what is this defense going to be?
Like they gutted this defense and this was a lot
of head coach doing it too right, you wanted to
make this team there's own identity. You're right, Like, could
this team be one of what the worst rush defenses
in all football? They could? Like I have them greater
right next to the Chargers. I do have as the
thirty second worst rush defense. So Arizona could struggle or
(38:22):
I could be totally wrong, and the scheme fixes all
their weaknesses. Right, That's that's the credible part about football,
is the right scheme can fix so many weaknesses. So
this is a team I'm extremely high on. And maybe
maybe I'm drinking a little bit of or having a
little bit of fools goal here, Chad, but I'm just
really excited about this team, what they can be and
the prospects of getting them at thirteen to one to
(38:43):
win this division. Like it just feels like no one's
really believing in them, where I don't think they're that
far away from this Rams team, Like the difference between
those two teams don't feel that different. Where last year
at the same exact time, the Rams defense with the
thirtieth ranked defense and all the football because they were
so young and they gutted that whole team. They turned
(39:03):
it around after a year. And that's what again, that's
what good coaching can do in this league. It's we
talk all the time the difference between the best player
on the starting team and the worst bench player on
a different team is only that much. Like, that's how
incredibly good all these guys in the NFL. I mean,
we joke all the time. You take people like, hey,
watch the preseason. You're like, literally preseason football. These guys
(39:27):
would like the worst preseason team. They would wax Georgia
from last year. Like that's the different step up from
college football the NFL. So my whole thing in people
realizing is that that's how why we talk so much
about coaching, because you know, to me, it goes obviously,
number one always is gonna be the quarterback, but number
two is always the coach. Like when I'm thinking about
the most important pieces to different teams, that's always wherey
(39:49):
lan And you're right, do I have the most extreme
faith in this head coach and uh what he can
bring to the table, I don't. I do have questions,
but then I go back in. There's certain games last
year I watch, I'm just like, he can prepare his
team right and scheme right. I mean that Dallas Cowboys game.
He was in his bag in that game, like he
(40:10):
really knew how to attack Dak because he had seen Dak,
you know, multiple times being on the Eagles staff, right,
he kind of knew had a rhythm to what to
do for putting his team in the best position. So
I think he'll run what he did with the Eagles team,
which is basically just a prevent defense. It's like, Okay,
we'll give up five six yards passing, three four yards rushing.
(40:31):
We'll let you guys go all the way down the field.
Once we get in the red zone, that's when we
clamp down. I think that's exactly the type of defense
he's gonna run this year, where it's like they're just
gonna let teams kind of run it down the field
and then clamp down the red zone. They're gonna trade
out score teams, which again I think they have the
pieces chat on offense to do it. So Yeah, just
like the Panthers, this is another worst the first team.
I'm really excited about like, I just really love all
(40:52):
the pieces they have there, and I could be a
year early. That's the only fear here is I'm a
year early just because they do have some holes they
need to fill. But I can't help it. I'm just
I'm already into it. I'm already so excited for this team.
And yeah, I'm really hoping bank on Kyler Murray taking
that next step, which we all expect he will now
that he's putting the work in, he's kind of grown
up more. I do believe this team will take another
(41:14):
step and you know, shock the world and win this
division at thirteen to one.
Speaker 1 (41:19):
Chad, look, I was laughing a second ago as I
put on my glasses and I was looking at my
notes because I can't wait when I wrap this up
to remind people of some of our favorite bets from
our division reviews. And it's so in keeping with how
(41:41):
disgusting everything we do inbedding and what we ask of
our listeners to do. It's actually astonishing the three teams
where if I have notes on this that we are
most excited about, we have spent the most time talking about,
we have been most enthusiastic about. I wish I wish
this could be the show like first Take, where all
(42:05):
we do is talk about the Cowboys. I wish it
would make everything so much easier. We just can't do it.
We're just going to end up investing time in the
Arizona Cardinals, and that's where the opportunity is. Kyler Murray's
growing up. I really hope it's true. Kids do grow up, right.
I have a twenty one year old. I have a
seventeen year old. If you had told me when they
(42:27):
were eleven and seven that they would be what they
are today, which is the opposite of completely idiotic boys,
I would have been shocked. But they grow up and
they get smarter, and they get more mature, and they
calm down and they understand their responsibilities and they reprioritize things.
It's just what happens, and hopefully Kyler Murray has done that.
(42:49):
I was certainly really impressed with how we played last year,
how we played in turmoil. Last year. A new situation.
He has a number one receiver, first time he's having
that other than DeAndre Hopkins, and he really didn't get
to play with him as much as he possibly could
have because of injuries and here's what does give me
hope for this team. Okay, outside their division, they have
(43:12):
the Patriots, they have the Commanders, they have the Chargers,
they have the Bears, which we know. I believe they
will go under their overhyped over expected season win total,
which I respect.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Is when every time I could don't watch a Hard Knocks,
I'm like, God, damn, this team is good. So I
respect you're kind of pulling it back because they are
a team.
Speaker 1 (43:35):
Listen, I haven't watched this week's episode yet because I
was in the city Tuesday and Wednesday night and got
home late last night and my kid was out doing
his fantasy draft so he wasn't home and I like
to watch.
Speaker 2 (43:46):
It with him.
Speaker 1 (43:46):
But and they got the Vikings. That's five winnable games
outside the division to me for a team that has
six and a half wins, and they could steal one, right,
they did it last year. They old games against better teams.
I'm not afraid of what we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (44:04):
And they're a team where they have important divisional games
early in the year, like you know, they started to
hear with Buffalo. That's that's really tough obviously, but then
they get to come home and play the Rams, right,
and then a couple of weeks later they get to
go to the forty nine ers, Like, we're gonna know
really early on, this team's gonna be battle tested really early, right,
they go Bills Rams Detroit, then they come home there
(44:25):
against Washington. Then they're at the forty nine ers and
then at Green Bay, Like, we're gonna know really really
quick if this was a really dumb better, if this
is like a really good team that you know, was
slept on by people. So I love how their schedule
is because it's like they're gonna get some really good
looks at what kind of offense they're gonna be early
on against pretty talented defenses.
Speaker 1 (44:46):
So I was laughing before because I'm looking at my
notes from the past what eight episodes of preview of
previews for the division. The teams that we have been
so enthusiastic about that we've gone all in on that
we are begging people to bet Carolina Panthers over in
(45:12):
the division, the Las Vegas Raiders over six and a half,
the Arizona Cardinals over in the division. The good news
is we love the Bengals and we have been on
that since early in the offseason, so I do feel
pretty good about that we have.
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Still if you want me to be boring, I think
I've told you my biggest bets right now for division.
One of them is Detroit that's pretty boring. Another one's
the Chiefs, pretty boring, another one's the Eagles, pretty boring.
And then the fourth one I guess is a little
more exciting is the Jets. I just love that Jets team.
So if you're like, I don't want to bet that
ugly Simon, I get it. I do have some chalk
(45:54):
out there for you guys if you wouldn't just want
to go chalk, which I got no issue doing. If
I'm going to tie my money for six seven months,
go chalk. But if you do love this show, I'm
gonna need you to go put a futures on the
Panthers and win their division, and go put it futures
on the Cardinals. Like that's what we love and makes
a show so great. I know it sounds dumb and crazy.
Two years ago we gave up the Jags at ten
(46:15):
to one to eleven to one to win their division.
It came through. So it's like, you know, we're not
just blindly making these bets. Not We're not just giving
out these fourth place teams all the times. It's like, Okay,
there's a little method to this madness, and that's that's
what I'm looking for you. It's like, Okay, a team
that people are really down from last year that me
and Chat think the talent's risen above what people perceive
as it has from the previous year. So those are
(46:37):
the teams where even this offseason, like every day I'm
checking the beat writers down to Carolina because I'm just
I can't believe how excited for this Panthers team. But
it's like, I just I love buying low on teams
when they got a new coach, come in when they
have a high draft pick like Bryce Young. So it
just fits our criteria of teams we like to bet,
and you know, I hope people can get there with us.
(46:59):
But I told totally even when you're reading out loud,
I totally get if people are just like I can't
do it. It's like, you know, at Savior Bank Role,
we start some real games in two weeks.
Speaker 1 (47:08):
And look, we're going to talk about our best bets
next week. We're gonna have Kyle, like we said, We're
gonna have Stucky and Colin on talking college football Week one,
and Simon and I will also have the last episode
before we get into NFL season, our best Futures Bets
summary of everything, anything we've left off the board. We're
(47:29):
definitely going to talk about the rond Robin bets we
make of Super Bowl matchups, which I love and will
one want to talk about in depth.
Speaker 2 (47:40):
But we'll try to find another one. We get at
Tyreek Hill last year, one or two of those as well.
Speaker 1 (47:47):
Yeah, absolutely, I think we loved, we loved. Uh. I
think it was Kayleb Williams over thirty six hundred passing yards.
Speaker 2 (47:55):
I checked it was thirty thirty two.
Speaker 1 (47:59):
Yeah, that's just stealing. Had ain't right Even if I
have a rational exuberance, which I know, which I don't.
All you got to do is watch him roll out
fling it like just a flick of the wrist, eight
million yards to Roma Dunes against that defense. Oh you
(48:22):
know what I wanted to say, here we go. No, No,
you made a really good point about bad teams in
the NFL. A couple of years ago, my buddy Matt
called me and he's like, do you think the and
Bama was killing everybody. He's like, I was just having
this debate with one of my kids, do you think
(48:42):
Bama could beat Jacksonville? And I'm like, that's idiotic. He
goes why. I go, let me ask you a question.
How many people on the Alabama roster right now will
end up playing in the NFL. Say there's an eighty
man roster, how many of those guys will play in
(49:02):
the NFL. We landed at like, over that four year cycle,
maybe twenty five guys, And that would be a lot.
So let's say it's that that would be over exaggeration.
So then I said to him, to a little bit
of a trick, question, how many guys in the Jaguars
can play in the NFL? And except how many guys
(49:26):
in the Jaguars roster can play in the NFL? He
goes out, He goes, I don't know, I go all
fifty two of them, You fucking idiot. They're just better
football players. They're better, they're stronger, they're faster, they're older.
The best of every single college team is playing on
the worst NFL team. There's no way a college football
(49:51):
team is ever going to beat an NFL team.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
Yeah, And a joke I always tellt was when I
first went to Vegas, I was a runner. I was
talking to a guy about the basically exactly what you
just said, and he goes, see that guy there, he's
probably the third best cornerback in all football. I think
he was on either BAMO or LSU at the time.
He goes he's going to get drafted by a team.
He's going to sit behind a guy that played at
Stony Brook and UCLA for two years. Like, you don't
(50:16):
get it, Like you're just because you're this big bag
dog right now, once you get to the league, you're
behind even bigger batter dog. So yeah, that's that's the
thing people can't really wrap their head around. That's that's
my whole point. Though. It's just coaching so important because
all these guys have talent. It's the coaches that can
harness the talent put the guys in the best, best situations.
Speaker 1 (50:34):
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(51:17):
restrictions apply. Simon and I are back with our next
episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page.
Tuesday one forty five pm Eastern College Football Week one.
Download us from Spotify, Apple podcast wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribe, We this five stars, say whatever you
want feedback as a gift until next time, Love you.
(51:45):
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Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
my Campadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, so ointment.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Hello Chad. How you doing? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I feel kind of great. You know. I was in
the city for the past two days, and I got
home last night and I was sitting on the couch
with my wife. I was able to distract her long
enough from watching yet another season of Arrested Development to
talk about how excited I am that we're getting to
(00:59):
the star of the season every year in August. You
might feel this way too as a professional Better, Like,
I feel like we are on the precipice of falling
apart until these games start. Like everyone is so antsy,
everyone is so ready, everyone is so excited, Like we
just got to get to some freaking games. We got
college football Week zero starting on Saturday. We got Week
(01:23):
one for college football the week after. Then we are
into NFL. We are in our final installment of our
annual NFL Division Preview series. We are discussing the Nfcwash,
which I'm psyched about because you have said all offseason
the Niners to you have the best roster in the NFL.
(01:43):
We are going to put that theory to the test.
I will also tell you, Simon, I got a lot
of text from people over the last forty eight hours
about how high you are on the Raiders. One body
texted me and said, I nearly fell off the elliptical
when I heard Simon say how much he loved the Raiders.
(02:04):
And then I got another text from Mike Kerns, who
you know is the partner at the Churning Group who
approached me to launch Action in May of twenty seventeen,
before any of this existed. He's all on board with
you on the Raiders. All on board.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
It's a sad day when everyone is shocked that someone
said the Raiders can go eight to nine. It's dark
days right now for the Raiders. But yeah, this this
division is gonna be a little different the last division.
Right this division actually has some themes that we think
can make it to Super Bowl and like the last division,
so I'm excited to break this one down. Like you said,
the Air is getting Cripschad That's how you know football
(02:47):
is here. You go outside, it's sixty degrees out in
the northeast, are like, okay, this is football weather.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
It totally feels like that. Oh my god. I was
walking around yesterday and like jeans and a longsleeve shirt,
and I'm thinking to myself, this is my favorite weather
for clothes.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
It's the best.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Like I could wear these kind of clothes all day
every day. Maybe a light fleece, you know, maybe a
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(04:32):
betting coverage anywhere, or just follow the link in the
episode description. All Right, my enthusiasm, my optimism right now
is off the charts. Like fall weather in New York
is conquer the city weather. You walk around in the
streets and you're like, I got this thing on lockdown,
so I am ready to roll today. Simon Foe of
(04:57):
Vim and Vigor. As a reminder, as of said in
every one of our division preview episodes, nineteen of the
past twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone from
worst to first in its division. Well, it happened in
the NFC West last year, first place San Francisco forty
nine Ers, last place Arizona Cardinals. Here we go to
(05:23):
Sisco San Francisco forty nine Ers right now six to
one to win the Super Bowl. Minus one ninety five
in the division, eleven and a half is the win total.
Their strength of schedule fifteenth most difficult overall, it doesn't
(05:46):
appear to be that hard by ranking, but as we've
discussed with Warren Sharp, as Chris Raybond has said in
the Action Network podcast with Stuckey, which everybody should be
listening to, they have one of the worst rested advantages
in the league and they have three short week road games.
(06:07):
That is not easy. This is a team that historically,
as we've already seen in the preseason, will suffer from injuries.
Suffer from injuries. Two key players, whether it's McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Debo, whomever,
that could have an impact on their ability to reach
more than eleven and a half wins. O Line rank
(06:29):
twenty four. Surprisingly, we're part of the team only Trent
Williams is really the standout. We know there's issues there,
doesn't really matter though, like I know, we're going to
talk about this, but Shanahan's scheme is so good they
can get away with a weaker offensive line maybe d
line rank second Nick Bosa, Perennial DPOY candidate number three,
(06:49):
overall ed rusher Javon Vargrave, Top twenty five, Greater interior alignment.
According to PFF, you love this team, You love this roster,
super Bowl hangover, he's brought party a manager. Bill Barnwell
doesn't think they should pay him big bucks. I don't know, Simon,
can we be fading eleven and a half wins with
(07:12):
this a Francisco forty nine ers?
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Even a month ago, I would have said, no, this
is this is the perctly built teams. They're ready to
go on one last run before it all kind of
falls apart. It might be falling apart. Chat like, I
know the most important guy on this team, Trent Williams,
a man you mentioned. I wish you had brought up
that stat. You had this amazing stat last season where
we kept fading them when he didn't play, and it
was just basically, they're a totally different team. Kyle Shannan
(07:38):
team is totally different when he is not on the field,
and it's we're talking you know, seven years of data
right when he when he first got there, the first
thing he did was bring him along from Washington. This
is a big deal, Like, this isn't something where you
can just say, well, like you, I just told you
their offensive line was already really bad talked about. He
(08:00):
was the key, like he is the guy that makes
it all work. He's the one that he calls all
the signs, he knows everything for that defense, for that
offensive line. So the fact that he's not in the building,
and you know, the fact that if you if you
can't you know, understand how big of a deal Brandon
a Yuki is to blocking. It's a big deal. Like
(08:22):
he's one of the best blocking receivers in football. And
then you add to the fact that you know, this
guy had over one thousand and four yards and only
seventy five receptions. It's crazy, it really is. So you know,
this this is a team that right now, if at
a top five most important guys on their offensive side
of the ball, I would say they're missing number one
and number five right now. Like to me, they're they're
(08:44):
missing some really important pieces to this offense. And it's
Chad you said it were two weeks away, like literally
from two weeks mean, Chad will be in New York
and it's totally over. So it's it's a big deal.
So this is a team that I wanted to be
high on and now we might not. You know, not
that not that I don't have a dollar invest in
(09:05):
this team, but I haven't put a dollar more since
August first. Right, this is a team I've just been
I took a step back on just because what you
just said. Chat because I told you, if they don't
have these guys end of the season, now we're dropping
them down my list, like they're not, you know, a
top four, top five team if they have these two
guys out, Like that's such a huge deal to this
team where rock Curty needs all these guys to make
(09:27):
it work. As great as he's been, he's great because
the pieces around him, Like we say, he is a
good player, but he needs the pieces around him. And
in his career, his huge advantage was he's never lost
in his career to anyone in this division. Chef. Again,
it doesn't sound real, people, but that's the truth. Now
there is some weakness there, like there is something we
can build on with these other teams and try to
(09:49):
take advantage of So this went from being a really
boring division that we thought it would just kind of
kind of be business as usual too. They're all the
teams in this division should have some type of hope
if this is really how their season is going to start,
Because if Trent Williams does come in, you think he's
just going to pick right up. The dude's like thirty six.
He's gonna need a couple of weeks to get his
body right, give his legs back. Same goes with AYUK.
(10:11):
So it is a really interesting scenario right now, Chada,
where I want to tell people to take their under
but I'm a little hesitant too. I'd rather take value
other places in this division rather than giving this one out.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Well, look, Trent Williams, just so we're clear, there are
contract situations with AYUK. There are contract situations with Trent Williams.
Kyle Shanahan as recently as yesterday, less than twenty four
hours ago, said he's in contact with Trent Williams. Said
he feels like they are getting close to a new
deal that will get Trent Williams back into camp and
(10:44):
back on the team. But that is a tricky one,
and the stat you're talking about was last year. I
don't have it in front of me, but this is
directionally accurate enough to show his influence. When Trent william
and Deebo Samuel were on the field, the Niners were
undefeated and winning games by multiple touchdowns. When Trent Williams
(11:08):
and Deebo Samuel were not on the field, the Niners
were a five hundred team. Like they are. The lynchpins
to this offense. What Trent Williams is able to do
along the foundational elements of the offensive line with Deebo
Samuel can do out of multiple positions, whether there's a
wide receiver or at running back. They need both of
(11:29):
these guys to make it go. Trant Williams isn't there.
That is a huge loss for an offensive line. That
is kind of you know, mid as. The kids like
to say, it's meh, mid blah whatever.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Whatever.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
The like least enthusiastic, most dismissive face a teenager can give.
That is the forty nine Ers offensive line. But here's
what gets interesting to me always. I don't think there's
a coach in the NFL other than Kyle Shanahan, who
(12:05):
there's not a coach in the NFL who enjoys playing
with the pieces and is less phased by losing pieces
than Kyle Shanahan. His scheme is so good and he
is so smart about game planning and building plays like
it worries me, but I'm not going to fade him.
(12:29):
It makes me less confident they're the best team in
the NFC. But he is such a good coach, such
a good game planning coach.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
He is, but used to read a crazy study. He
was like a below five hundred coach for most of
his career, and we always said it's because he never
had his guy at quarterback.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
He never knows his quarterback and he goes through like
this team has just been snake bit with injuries. I mean,
how many years has this team been hurt with had
a key players injured for linked period of times and
then a domino effect, right, Like there have been years
where they're playing second thirsteen quarterbacks the entire season. So
(13:07):
I give him some benefit of the doubt, like when
the team is healthy. He also takes the NFC title
games into the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
I agree, But that's that's the problem here though, is
that we're talking about a team that the coach that
not that he needs things perfect, but he had it
perfect right. All the pieces are here right now. It's
really the defense. Even if their biggest weakness was the
secondary of the quarterback position, even that's been improved. Like
it's it's all built for right now. And it feels
(13:37):
like they're shooting themselves in the foot chat just not
getting these deals done. And the Trent Williams things just
mind blowing the fact that he has not been in
camp and the season starts in two weeks. It's just
it is crazy where I get it. He's older, so
it's like, well, they weren't going to push him that
hard anyway. He needs to get his body right, Like
even when I think Jason Kelsey was talking about it,
like you need to be in camp, you need to
(13:58):
get those football players underneath their belly because it just
gets you back into that rhythm. So he was saying
when he got older, Kelsey said, it takes a minute
to get his body right and get back into that
football shape. Like we said, Chad, the guy has less
than two weeks. I mean, okay, we hop off the
show he signs. Maybe I'll be like, Okay, I can
see why you want to take their over and maybe
take their division, but we're going to go through this
(14:19):
division here, these different teams. I think this is the
best this division's been and I don't know, five six years,
so it's the worst possible year for this team to
kind of be coming in a week. That's why I'm
just sounding the alarm here because it is such a
big deal. Yeap.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
Before we go on to the next thing, here's a
quick word from our producer, Matt Mitchell.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Okay, last, but not least, Uncle Mitch.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
Hey, Thanks Chad. I want to thank everyone for listening
to the show. I also want to thank all of
our loyal listeners for leaving so many reviews on Apple
Podcasts for us. As we say, every episode, feedback is
indeed a gift, and that's true now that ever before,
I also want to thank are most loyalisteners, without whom
(15:03):
I would not have a job. So I love and
appreciate every single one of you always, But many of
our most loyal listeners have voiced their concerns and irritations
regarding the amount of advertising on this program since our
move over to the volume. I see you I hear you.
I acknowledge you. I work in audio brothers and sisters,
(15:25):
I get it. But there's nothing I can do about that.
There's nothing chatter Simon can do about that. We're part
of volume now, that's part of iHeart. That's just how
the sausage is made in this particular sausage factory. So
I'm sorry about that. I'll just add it to the
ten thousand things in my life that I don't like
but over which I have zero control. So please enjoy
(15:49):
the free podcast. I hope you have a great season.
Let's win lots of bunny go bills, hug your mother,
and without further ado, here's some ads.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
All right, let's talk about the Rams, because the Rams
continue to be one of those teams that I think
you and I are impressed by and for some reason,
have been the last two seasons undervalued in the market.
Rams thirty to one to win the Super Bowls plus
three point thirty to win the division. Season win totals
(16:24):
eight and a half. Strength of schedule. Again, strength of
schedule is based on the projected win loss totals for
the season of their opponents, based on what oddsmakers are
saying sixteenth, most difficult O line rank sixteenth, really really
(16:46):
strong run blocking unit. Kevin Dotson second highest rated overall
guard according to Pro Football Focused in twenty twenty three,
got a massive new contract. D line ranks twenty three. Obviously,
the loss of Aaron Donald huge impact on the overall
skill of this unit. They have loaded up on D
line prospects. Right Kobe Turner one of the many second
(17:07):
year players who performed brilliantly as a rookie for them
last year, along with Kyron Williams, along with Pukin Nakua.
He was actually, believe it or not, Kobe Turner top
ten on PFF's list of overall interior alignments. So this
is a team I think we were super impressed with
their draft. We've been super impressed with how Sean McVay
(17:29):
and the executive staff there have turned this roster around
and went from all in got to win the Super
Bowl to now coaching young players up. On my mind
is over eight and a half.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
I don't mind it, but it's definitely a team that
coming into the year I was gonna be really high on.
And not that the Aaron Donald stuff suck there out
of the room, but it did a little bit for
me chat and then you add in the top that
this is most likely Staffs last year for the Rams,
Like it seems like they're kind of cooking the books
and get ready to kind of you know, not saying
they're one of the teams like the Raiders or the
(18:08):
Jets who want Dak Prescott, but that's what you year
behind the scenes, like these are the teams that have
been chatting that you know, that's the plan for next year,
right is trying to go after Dak. And it sounds crazy,
but they turned Stafford's deal into one year deals. So
I don't want to make it sound like it's all
good for the Rams, like this is by far the
best team, the second best team this division. I fought
(18:31):
that last year. This year it's a little different, like
I actually do like again we're gonna do. I like
the Seawk, I like Arizona. So it's it's easy to
see this team. You know, some people think they can
win it. I also could see this team being the
last place team in this division, like a lot of
there's a lot of options on the table for this
team right now, and it's all because of the unknown,
Like the fact they lost, you know, they did your DC.
(18:55):
That's I want to act like it's not a big deal,
But there's a reason he got that job in Atlanta.
Like he took a young group of guys last year
and turned them into something special. Now he's gone, and
we still believe in Sean McVay, right, that's the whole
point of betting this line right now. It's like I
didn't bet them last year because I knew Puka was
gonna be this incredible sleeper. It was like, Okay, I
had Stafford and I had you know, McVeigh at six
(19:17):
and a half wins. That was crazy to me. I
was getting butchered for I don't know nine weeks. They
were three and six and like literally it was never
any amount of people just just killing me. They went
seven to one end of the season like this. That's
how you want your better teams to be, right. It
takes them in to get going then once they figure
it out. I mean Stafford had them rolling on offense
(19:39):
like they were so good towards the end of the year.
He was barely even passing the ball. They could just
run the ball down your throat and there was nothing
you could do, so eight and a half chat, I'll
bet it with you. I like their over and it's
like an overwill take just because if he does stay
healthy Stafford, how do they not get to this number?
Like this is one of the best offenses in football,
And yeah, their defense is really young, but it's we're
(19:59):
not relying on them to win us games, right. But
the biggest issue at the end of the day, the
reason I won't tell you about the Super Bowl future
is just because Aaron Donald. Like I wish people could
understand why, Like because again people just trying to watch
a film like that. Why people in football just hype
this man so much? But like, Aaron Donald to me
is the best football player I've seen in my life.
(20:20):
Like I didn't see Lawrence Taylor play like I just
Aaron Donald to me. Anytime I put the tape on
the Rage, the control Raged. He played with fighting through
three to you know, two to three different blockers to
get to the quarterback and he do it was just
like incredible. Now that's gone. What I love. Two cha.
I saw they still have his locker untouched, so they're
still opening he comes back, which you know, my tune
(20:42):
might change if he does come back. Mid season. But
you know right now this is a team that there's
other teams in this division. I'd rather put Super Bowl futures
on than the Rams, just because you know there's there's
too there's too many little questions right now in their
defense for me to really get behind them long term.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
I feel like Aaron Donald had one of the most
perfect NFL careers. I'm not sure what the comp is
for other sports in the modern era. Steph Curry is
having something similar I think to Aaron Donald, in that
(21:20):
you are synonymous with one team, you win your title,
you are readily acknowledged at the best at your position,
you are readily acknowledged as a transformative player, you are
beloved by a franchise, and then you get out. And
(21:43):
he did it in a modern era where there is
so much changeover made so much money. It's easier to
do it when you're George Brett or Walter Payton, or
even a little bit Barry Sanders like to do it
the way that he has done, or a guy like
Steph Curry, those are the two things that that's the
(22:03):
guy who immediately comes to mind. We're in an age
of transition, an age of being able to move because
of the money when you were at the top of
your game. It's just amazing that he did what he
did and got out the way he did and.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
In his prime like he was. I think he was
the third highest graded the tackle in football last year.
I think at the end of the day, we all
know how much work these guys put in, and he
just said, like, I don't got the love for it anymore,
Like he doesn't. That's what made him so special is
he loved the work, like he was just putting so
much work in the off season. He said, she's the
off season hit. He realized, like, I just don't love
(22:40):
the grind anymore. So, Yeah, it's it's honestly, if you're
a football fan, it's a it's sad, sad day to
think about him not playing football this year. It's just
one of the all time greats and now he's just going.
Speaker 1 (22:52):
Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan. It's the eternal question, who would
you rather have coaching your team?
Speaker 2 (23:01):
Well, I mean we talk all the time head to head,
Kyle Shanahan. He owns McVeigh right, ched. I mean we
always talk whenever they play. We like to take whoever
the dog is in the matchup, and you know historically
we've covered but the team that's the dog just does
not win, Like whoever's the favorite usually wins these matchups.
(23:22):
So yeah, if I had to pick one, I'm with you.
Though McVay has got the jewelry. I just there's something
about that Kyle Shanahan run blocking scheme. I just can't
get away from it.
Speaker 1 (23:33):
It is so weird, right because if you look at it,
Kyle Shannan has a lot of guys who have gone
on to be NFL coaches from his staff. Sean McVay, basically,
you shook the guy's hand at some point in your
coaching career for about four years there you were getting
a job as a coach in the NFL, Right, And
(23:56):
I do think there's something that feels the term of
the moment, if you're paying any attention to politics, I'm
not making a political statement. Is joy. There's something joyful
about the way Sean McVay coaches, something enthusiastic that feels
(24:17):
different than sort of the very business like approach you
get from Kyle Shanahan. Even in like the way you
see them communicate with their teams. You've seen you know,
the behind the scenes or the hard knocks with Sean
McVay and the way he's communicating with the Rams. And
we've seen some of the behind the scenes stuff from
the Receiver show on Netflix with Kittle and Samuel and
(24:40):
the way Kyle Shanahan communicated with his players. I don't
doubt his players love them, but it just feels like
there's a little bit more boyish enthusiasm with Sean McVay.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Yeah, I'm with you on that one.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
I wonder if I'd rather play for Sean McVay than
Kyle shann I do, like I wonder if I think
Kyle shann is a genius, He's going to alway, He's
put me in a position to succeed no matter the situation,
unless it's overtime in the Super Bowl. Oh what I
read a play for Sean McVay, who's clearly great at coaching,
but also just might make it ten percent more fun.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
Would you take the Rams over?
Speaker 1 (25:15):
And now, Yeah, I totally would. Yeah, because of Matthew Stafford.
At the end of the day, I think about what C. J.
Straus said.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
I'm saying and I feel like.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
You said this, and this is stuck in my head
for two years now, we were underestimating how great Matthew
Stafford is, and I think we have now seen because
he was injured and then came back, and this team
got so much better when he's on, He's on in
any kind of system, and with the talent that they
have Cooper Cup, Puka naku A, Kyron Williams, you know
that is a good offensive team with a lot of confidence.
(25:48):
And I keep thinking about what C. J. Shroud said, like,
if there's one guy he's watching, it's Matthew Stafford that
says everything to me.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Yeah, I agree, I mean I again, people know my
love for this Rams team. I wish I was higher
on them. It's just I have to take a step back.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Yep, I get it. I get it all right. So
you mentioned Seattle sixty five to one to win the
Super Bowl plus seven hundred to win the Division. Seven
and a half is the win totals, strength the schedule
fifteenth easiest O line rank thirty one, loaded with backups,
(26:23):
D line of rank seventeen. But I do think it's
to me, it's seventeen. And if you've got arrows next
to it, it's a green arrow pointing up because I
think this unit has a lot of potential because of
Mike McDonald's scheme. But I was surprised to say you're
high on Seattle. I know we're going to get to Arizona,
but I'm surprised to say you're high on Seattle. I
(26:44):
didn't have that in our in our sort of cool.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Yeah, I'm high in that. I thought they're gonna be
the worst team in football coming to this season. I
was like all in on fading this team, and luckily
someone spoke to me just about what you just said,
Mike McDonald, where it's like I should give this guy
more credit for what he did with the Ravens last year.
Like he was an incredible defensive schemer. He put all
his players in the best positions they could possibly be in,
(27:12):
and even that playoff loss that was not on him,
Like he did really well against that Chiefs team in
the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
We all know what that playoff loss was about.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
Yeah, exactly. So I hated this team coming to the
season just because Chad just said, you have Gino Smith
behind arguably one of the worst offensive lines of football.
To me, that screams disaster, right, Chad, Like, I don't
know how they're going to make that work. But now
you're gonna mix in. They have such a great mind
on defense where it's like, okay, maybe they'll just play
(27:42):
super smart conservative, like they can make it work. Can
they win this division? No, But we got a team
coming up that might be able to. But this isn't
the team I'm really gonna bet large futures on just
for them winning the division. But it is a team that,
you know, I do have him at seven wins the
or over runner seven and a half. Thankfully I'm towards
the under. I don't mind if they're a little on
(28:04):
the over here. Again, I just like this division. It's
like I can see it breaking the right way for
them that you know, if it's Sam Howard, you know
Smith that quarterback. They have the weapons, like we talked about,
they have really good guys on the outside. It's just
what are we gonna get from this offensive line. It's
like that's the biggest question, or that's why I can't
bet them to win this division because it's like, even
(28:24):
if I'm running the perfect simulation of the perfect world
where everything breaks right for them, I never had them
breaking eleven wins, and I think you need to have
over eleven wins to win this division. So this is
the team I am really excited about. But that's the biggest,
the biggest fear right now. It's just the old line,
like you're one of the worst in football. It doesn't
look like there's anything on the horizon. Look, there's no
(28:44):
guys out there that could add or trades they can
make to really improve it. At this point, it is
what it is right So to me, this is the
team that we're gonna learn really quickly by October kind
of what their identity is, what their personality is, are
their new head coach and if he is the savior
of with this defense, because you like, they got the guys,
Like on defense, they do have a lot of really
good pieces, even to the secondary. It's like they've been
(29:06):
drafting for the secondary the last couple of years and
it's like, okay, now you have you have the players,
you have the first round picks. You just needed the
teacher to come in and kind of make it work.
So Pete Carroll got a little bit of a rod deal,
but they're much better at where they're at right now,
going with a really sharp defensive mind. When the best
on football, and they would have been rolling it back
with another year of Pete Carroll, which got nothing against Pete.
(29:28):
I just think of all the older coaches, I understood
the most why they were like, Okay, we need change here.
So you know, a ton of pressure on Meg McDonald
year one. It could be a total disaster. I mean
that's what I really thought it was going to be
a couple of months ago. But I've just come around
on his coaching style where it's like, now you're gonna
have this defense ready every week. They're gonna be on
the more prepared teams. The biggest question chat is going
(29:50):
to be offensive line and can they keep that quarterback healthy.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
I really wish Matt Mitchell you might have to find
the drop. I believe it was this time last year
where Simon Hunter might have declared Jackson Smith and Jigba,
Tyler Lockett and DK metcalf as the greatest trio of
receivers in history. Am I am? I misremembering that?
Speaker 2 (30:19):
You are? You keep mis remembering the end sentence. Possibly
I don't remember. I left myself. Yeah, don't worry, I
left myself and out. We went back and looked I
left myself and out.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
So I don't remember any qualifiers. I just remember the
enormity of the statement.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
The phrase he used was arguably the best wide receiver
room in history. So arguably was the qualifier. Like saying,
you know, buffalo wings are arguably better with ranch versus
blue cheese.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
It's just factually incorrect and it makes you look like
kind of an asshole.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
Well, I just don't because people don't understand because they're
up in the middle of nowhere the West Coast. It's
like DK is a stud, Tyler Lockett's a stud, and
Jim Budd is just I don't know. I loved him
at Ohio State, so I.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
Didn't you're he was great last there's no yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
But at the end of that I put that on
Geno Smith, like he has the weapons, but apparently he
does not have the old line.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
He does not have the old line. It's interesting. We've
had so many conversations about coaches in the last two episodes.
The literal investment we make in some of them. Right,
you talked about Antonio Peers with the Raiders, and you
you are making an investment if you bet the over
with the Raiders that he is going to be a
(31:37):
version of Mike Tomlin, a version of Mike Tomlin who
can get so much out of this team. Like we
saw at the end of last year, they are not
very talented. And although there are incredible hype videos of
Gardner Minshew working out looking like he's out of the
(32:01):
nineteen seventies, I don't know that Gardner Minshew is going
to turn this team into what we think it can
really what we might expect it to be. Over six
and a half wins, who knows. You're really investing in
Antonio Pearce in his ability to turn that team around.
We just said the same thing about Kyle Shanahan. If
you're investing in the Niners at over eleven and a half,
or even the Rams at over eight and a half,
(32:22):
you're investing in the coach's ability to draw out the
best of their players with their scheme, being able to
overcome injuries, being able to overcome contract holdouts, etc.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Etc.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
Mike McDonald, great coordinator at Michigan, great coordinator with Baltimore.
That's a huge investment and a huge statement to be
able to say I would go over seven and a
half because I believe this coach is going to be smart,
enough to figure out what to do with his defense
and keep them in the game and keep the defense
off the field because they're running something conservatively offensively old statement.
Speaker 2 (32:56):
That's times what I would do, though, it just seems
like their identity should be their defense, where it's like
they just don't have the pieces yet on offense to
really make that their identity.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
Almost as bold as saying Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and
Jackson Smith in Jigma and Jigma are the greatest trio
of receivers in NFL history, not possibly possibly greatest trio
of receivers ever. All right, last team in the NFC West.
I want to love this team, Yeah, I want to
(33:27):
love this team so much. The Arizona Cardinals. One hundred
to one to win the Super Bowl plus thirteen hundred
to win the Division. Six and a half is the
win total seventeenth hardest schedule. This is what started to
worry me when I dug in, because you and I
like superficially been talking about the Cardinals all off season
(33:47):
and a Kyler Murray upswing. And this is when I
got scared. All Line rank twenty six, D line rank
thirty second. They're only thirty two teams in the NFL.
So their pff D line rank heading into the year
thirty second. They played so hard last year they were
(34:13):
two and five in one score games. I know we
all made fun of Jonathan Gannon before the season began
last year. He was so awkward socially in those videos
when he's meeting Kyler Murray or giving pep talks. But
I thought he coached him up and I thought he
had them playing hard no matter the circumstance. And even
(34:34):
Kyler Murray, who had a reputation as being someone who
could be aloof, seemed to be invested in working really hard.
Keep me on the ledge here.
Speaker 2 (34:47):
Yeah, this is like the Panthers. The Panthers, we were
what we took them at eleven, ten to one, nine
to one to come worse the first. That's how I
feel about the Cardinals here, Like this is the team
that I'm betting that thirteen to one to win this division.
It's just a team that could shock the world just
because it's all there offensively, Chad like, they got all
(35:08):
the pieces they need. They have a defensive coach. I
think he'll be able to figure it out on defense.
Like do you really think this team's gonna win twelve
thirteen games. No, but there is a world where they
can do it. Like there is a world where this
team can turn around and really have an incredible season.
It's like we've seen that time and time again, and
it happened in the football right. The team gets in
the right scenario with the right offensive pieces and they
(35:29):
can make it work. And that's how I feel here.
Like the fact they took marmon Aris Junior is my
favorite draft pick up the whole draft. Like I love
they could have traded out right, they could have traded back,
maybe got a couple of D lineman Chad. Instead, they
went for the once in a lifetime generational talent, which
I want teams to do. It's like you get the guy,
you get your Larry Fitzgerald. Now they're good, hopefully for
(35:52):
ten to fifteen years at the wire position with marmon
Aris Junior. And you know McBride the tight end and
no one talks about this guy is an absolute stud.
If you look down the stretch, he's one of the
best tight ends in all football. And Kyler Murray loved
using him, like he felt comfortable throwing to this guy.
So you know, we got Kyler year two after the
ACL injury, right, I believe that's what he injured. It's
a big deal, like we should see him back to
(36:14):
his old running self and I mean being Chad's worst
lost of our lives. I think it was on the Raiders.
We had the Raiders against Arizona. I believe they are up,
you know, fourteen, with a couple of minutes to go,
and Arizona comes all the way back and Kyler Murray
ran the length of two football fields on the two
point conversion and just found a guy in the back
of the end zone. Like that's that's what we're hoping here.
(36:34):
It's like this kid does have magic. There's a reason
he was a number one pick, you know, there's a
reason that he's still the guy for this team. And
when I talked to you know, different people that are around
the team and read stuff by the beat writers, it
seems like it seems like Chad that he's gotten over,
you know, his childish stuff of leaving early to go
play video games. It seems like he's growing up where
(36:55):
he is the first guy in, last guy out, which
I know it sounds corny, but to me, that's such
a big deal when you're the quarterback, like you're setting
the example. If you're not working the hardest, what's the point,
Like you're the guy, like you know, at the end
of the day, all that matters is how hard, how
much execution, how much preparedness this quarterback has. And I
(37:15):
feel like Kyle Leer's kind of turned that corner. You
kind of realize you turn into a little bit of
a joke in this league. So I'm just so excited
for this team. It sucks too where they're Of all
the teams we talked about three four months ago, I
felt like this was the most beloved team by most professionals, right, Chad,
like even talking Week one, like the pros love them
when they're plus seven to seven and a half against
(37:36):
the Bills. I think that linees down to six and
a half now for Week one. But this is just
a team that the professionals love, and I think even
these last moments, I've noticed the fantasy football community loves
this team now. Right, they do have these guys on
offense that they do really love. Even if James Connor
goes down. I like the backup trade Benson, like they
have good, good pieces all across the offense. You just
(37:59):
said the question years what is this defense going to be?
Like they gutted this defense and this was a lot
of head coach doing it too right, you wanted to
make this team there's own identity. You're right, Like, could
this team be one of what the worst rush defenses
in all football? They could? Like I have them greater
right next to the Chargers. I do have as the
thirty second worst rush defense. So Arizona could struggle or
(38:22):
I could be totally wrong, and the scheme fixes all
their weaknesses. Right, That's that's the credible part about football,
is the right scheme can fix so many weaknesses. So
this is a team I'm extremely high on. And maybe
maybe I'm drinking a little bit of or having a
little bit of fools goal here, Chad, but I'm just
really excited about this team, what they can be and
the prospects of getting them at thirteen to one to
(38:43):
win this division. Like it just feels like no one's
really believing in them, where I don't think they're that
far away from this Rams team, Like the difference between
those two teams don't feel that different. Where last year
at the same exact time, the Rams defense with the
thirtieth ranked defense and all the football because they were
so young and they gutted that whole team. They turned
(39:03):
it around after a year. And that's what again, that's
what good coaching can do in this league. It's we
talk all the time the difference between the best player
on the starting team and the worst bench player on
a different team is only that much. Like, that's how
incredibly good all these guys in the NFL. I mean,
we joke all the time. You take people like, hey,
watch the preseason. You're like, literally preseason football. These guys
(39:27):
would like the worst preseason team. They would wax Georgia
from last year. Like that's the different step up from
college football the NFL. So my whole thing in people
realizing is that that's how why we talk so much
about coaching, because you know, to me, it goes obviously,
number one always is gonna be the quarterback, but number
two is always the coach. Like when I'm thinking about
the most important pieces to different teams, that's always wherey
(39:49):
lan And you're right, do I have the most extreme
faith in this head coach and uh what he can
bring to the table, I don't. I do have questions,
but then I go back in. There's certain games last
year I watch, I'm just like, he can prepare his
team right and scheme right. I mean that Dallas Cowboys game.
He was in his bag in that game, like he
(40:10):
really knew how to attack Dak because he had seen Dak,
you know, multiple times being on the Eagles staff, right,
he kind of knew had a rhythm to what to
do for putting his team in the best position. So
I think he'll run what he did with the Eagles team,
which is basically just a prevent defense. It's like, Okay,
we'll give up five six yards passing, three four yards rushing.
(40:31):
We'll let you guys go all the way down the field.
Once we get in the red zone, that's when we
clamp down. I think that's exactly the type of defense
he's gonna run this year, where it's like they're just
gonna let teams kind of run it down the field
and then clamp down the red zone. They're gonna trade
out score teams, which again I think they have the
pieces chat on offense to do it. So Yeah, just
like the Panthers, this is another worst the first team.
I'm really excited about like, I just really love all
(40:52):
the pieces they have there, and I could be a
year early. That's the only fear here is I'm a
year early just because they do have some holes they
need to fill. But I can't help it. I'm just
I'm already into it. I'm already so excited for this team.
And yeah, I'm really hoping bank on Kyler Murray taking
that next step, which we all expect he will now
that he's putting the work in, he's kind of grown
up more. I do believe this team will take another
(41:14):
step and you know, shock the world and win this
division at thirteen to one.
Speaker 1 (41:19):
Chad, look, I was laughing a second ago as I
put on my glasses and I was looking at my
notes because I can't wait when I wrap this up
to remind people of some of our favorite bets from
our division reviews. And it's so in keeping with how
(41:41):
disgusting everything we do inbedding and what we ask of
our listeners to do. It's actually astonishing the three teams
where if I have notes on this that we are
most excited about, we have spent the most time talking about,
we have been most enthusiastic about. I wish I wish
this could be the show like first Take, where all
(42:05):
we do is talk about the Cowboys. I wish it
would make everything so much easier. We just can't do it.
We're just going to end up investing time in the
Arizona Cardinals, and that's where the opportunity is. Kyler Murray's
growing up. I really hope it's true. Kids do grow up, right.
I have a twenty one year old. I have a
seventeen year old. If you had told me when they
(42:27):
were eleven and seven that they would be what they
are today, which is the opposite of completely idiotic boys,
I would have been shocked. But they grow up and
they get smarter, and they get more mature, and they
calm down and they understand their responsibilities and they reprioritize things.
It's just what happens, and hopefully Kyler Murray has done that.
(42:49):
I was certainly really impressed with how we played last year,
how we played in turmoil. Last year. A new situation.
He has a number one receiver, first time he's having
that other than DeAndre Hopkins, and he really didn't get
to play with him as much as he possibly could
have because of injuries and here's what does give me
hope for this team. Okay, outside their division, they have
(43:12):
the Patriots, they have the Commanders, they have the Chargers,
they have the Bears, which we know. I believe they
will go under their overhyped over expected season win total,
which I respect.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Is when every time I could don't watch a Hard Knocks,
I'm like, God, damn, this team is good. So I
respect you're kind of pulling it back because they are
a team.
Speaker 1 (43:35):
Listen, I haven't watched this week's episode yet because I
was in the city Tuesday and Wednesday night and got
home late last night and my kid was out doing
his fantasy draft so he wasn't home and I like
to watch.
Speaker 2 (43:46):
It with him.
Speaker 1 (43:46):
But and they got the Vikings. That's five winnable games
outside the division to me for a team that has
six and a half wins, and they could steal one, right,
they did it last year. They old games against better teams.
I'm not afraid of what we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (44:04):
And they're a team where they have important divisional games
early in the year, like you know, they started to
hear with Buffalo. That's that's really tough obviously, but then
they get to come home and play the Rams, right,
and then a couple of weeks later they get to
go to the forty nine ers, Like, we're gonna know
really early on, this team's gonna be battle tested really early, right,
they go Bills Rams Detroit, then they come home there
(44:25):
against Washington. Then they're at the forty nine ers and
then at Green Bay, Like, we're gonna know really really
quick if this was a really dumb better, if this
is like a really good team that you know, was
slept on by people. So I love how their schedule
is because it's like they're gonna get some really good
looks at what kind of offense they're gonna be early
on against pretty talented defenses.
Speaker 1 (44:46):
So I was laughing before because I'm looking at my
notes from the past what eight episodes of preview of
previews for the division. The teams that we have been
so enthusiastic about that we've gone all in on that
we are begging people to bet Carolina Panthers over in
(45:12):
the division, the Las Vegas Raiders over six and a half,
the Arizona Cardinals over in the division. The good news
is we love the Bengals and we have been on
that since early in the offseason, so I do feel
pretty good about that we have.
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Still if you want me to be boring, I think
I've told you my biggest bets right now for division.
One of them is Detroit that's pretty boring. Another one's
the Chiefs, pretty boring, another one's the Eagles, pretty boring.
And then the fourth one I guess is a little
more exciting is the Jets. I just love that Jets team.
So if you're like, I don't want to bet that
ugly Simon, I get it. I do have some chalk
(45:54):
out there for you guys if you wouldn't just want
to go chalk, which I got no issue doing. If
I'm going to tie my money for six seven months,
go chalk. But if you do love this show, I'm
gonna need you to go put a futures on the
Panthers and win their division, and go put it futures
on the Cardinals. Like that's what we love and makes
a show so great. I know it sounds dumb and crazy.
Two years ago we gave up the Jags at ten
(46:15):
to one to eleven to one to win their division.
It came through. So it's like, you know, we're not
just blindly making these bets. Not We're not just giving
out these fourth place teams all the times. It's like, Okay,
there's a little method to this madness, and that's that's
what I'm looking for you. It's like, Okay, a team
that people are really down from last year that me
and Chat think the talent's risen above what people perceive
as it has from the previous year. So those are
(46:37):
the teams where even this offseason, like every day I'm
checking the beat writers down to Carolina because I'm just
I can't believe how excited for this Panthers team. But
it's like, I just I love buying low on teams
when they got a new coach, come in when they
have a high draft pick like Bryce Young. So it
just fits our criteria of teams we like to bet,
and you know, I hope people can get there with us.
(46:59):
But I told totally even when you're reading out loud,
I totally get if people are just like I can't
do it. It's like, you know, at Savior Bank Role,
we start some real games in two weeks.
Speaker 1 (47:08):
And look, we're going to talk about our best bets
next week. We're gonna have Kyle, like we said, We're
gonna have Stucky and Colin on talking college football Week one,
and Simon and I will also have the last episode
before we get into NFL season, our best Futures Bets
summary of everything, anything we've left off the board. We're
(47:29):
definitely going to talk about the rond Robin bets we
make of Super Bowl matchups, which I love and will
one want to talk about in depth.
Speaker 2 (47:40):
But we'll try to find another one. We get at
Tyreek Hill last year, one or two of those as well.
Speaker 1 (47:47):
Yeah, absolutely, I think we loved, we loved. Uh. I
think it was Kayleb Williams over thirty six hundred passing yards.
Speaker 2 (47:55):
I checked it was thirty thirty two.
Speaker 1 (47:59):
Yeah, that's just stealing. Had ain't right Even if I
have a rational exuberance, which I know, which I don't.
All you got to do is watch him roll out
fling it like just a flick of the wrist, eight
million yards to Roma Dunes against that defense. Oh you
(48:22):
know what I wanted to say, here we go. No, No,
you made a really good point about bad teams in
the NFL. A couple of years ago, my buddy Matt
called me and he's like, do you think the and
Bama was killing everybody. He's like, I was just having
this debate with one of my kids, do you think
(48:42):
Bama could beat Jacksonville? And I'm like, that's idiotic. He
goes why. I go, let me ask you a question.
How many people on the Alabama roster right now will
end up playing in the NFL. Say there's an eighty
man roster, how many of those guys will play in
(49:02):
the NFL. We landed at like, over that four year cycle,
maybe twenty five guys, And that would be a lot.
So let's say it's that that would be over exaggeration.
So then I said to him, to a little bit
of a trick, question, how many guys in the Jaguars
can play in the NFL? And except how many guys
(49:26):
in the Jaguars roster can play in the NFL? He
goes out, He goes, I don't know, I go all
fifty two of them, You fucking idiot. They're just better
football players. They're better, they're stronger, they're faster, they're older.
The best of every single college team is playing on
the worst NFL team. There's no way a college football
(49:51):
team is ever going to beat an NFL team.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
Yeah, And a joke I always tellt was when I
first went to Vegas, I was a runner. I was
talking to a guy about the basically exactly what you
just said, and he goes, see that guy there, he's
probably the third best cornerback in all football. I think
he was on either BAMO or LSU at the time.
He goes he's going to get drafted by a team.
He's going to sit behind a guy that played at
Stony Brook and UCLA for two years. Like, you don't
(50:16):
get it, Like you're just because you're this big bag
dog right now, once you get to the league, you're
behind even bigger batter dog. So yeah, that's that's the
thing people can't really wrap their head around. That's that's
my whole point. Though. It's just coaching so important because
all these guys have talent. It's the coaches that can
harness the talent put the guys in the best, best situations.
Speaker 1 (50:34):
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(51:17):
restrictions apply. Simon and I are back with our next
episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page.
Tuesday one forty five pm Eastern College Football Week one.
Download us from Spotify, Apple podcast wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribe, We this five stars, say whatever you
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(51:45):
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