Hoops Tonight - Top 25 NBA Players: Kawhi Leonard & Jimmy Butler still DANGEROUS for Clippers & Heat

Jason Timpf continues ranking his Top 25 NBA players with Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. Jason discusses why Kawhi is still an elite star in the NBA and whether he expects the Los Angeles Clippers to be competing for the NBA Finals next season. Is it too late for Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat to win a title together? Later, Jason answers listener questions during an NBA Mailbag segment.

Watch the players 15-14 here: https://youtu.be/BAI2IugNGDk

Timeline:

02:00 - Introduction

04:00 - #13: Kawhi Leonard

17:35 - #12: Jimmy Butler

25:00 - NBA Mailbag

#Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
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(01:42):
welcome to tonight. You're at the volume heavy Friday. Everybody
ohe ball. If you guys have had a great week.
We are continuing our player rankings today with number thirteen
and number twelve, and then as usual at the tail
end of the show, I've got a mail bag full
of a bunch of different counterpoints and arguments from you
guys about the list that will kind of bounce back
and forth in a mailbag format. You guys know the
drill before we get started. Subscribed to the Hoops Tonight

(02:04):
YouTube channels so you don't miss any more of our videos.
Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't
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ore if you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. Don't
forget it's also helpfullly leave a rating and a review
on that front. And the last, but not least, keep
dropping mailbag questions in those YouTube comments. I want you
guys to argue if you disagree with the ranking. If
there's something that you have a basketball case for, lay

(02:25):
it out and we will go over it in the
mail bag at the tail end of these player rankings videos.
As we head into next week, all right, let's talk
some basketball. So this is our last video before we
enter into our Superstar tier, which is actually two tiers,
but the top eleven players in the league I consider
to be like the bonafide superstar tier. This is kind

(02:48):
of like a gap tier, these last two guys before
we get into that stretch. Both of these players are
guys that I consider to be superstars when they are healthy,
but they've had major availability issues and so it's kind
of a funky spot to put them. And I'm less
concerned about the numbers here. It's more as a sign
of respect because there are guys that are behind these

(03:10):
two guys that are very likely to be more available
and be more productive this year. However, if these guys
are healthy, you can't write them off because they're so
damn good, and so this is kind of like a
weird tier here that's between the superstars and those lower
level stars where I decided to put these two guys,
and we're starting with number thirteen, Kawhi Leonard. He's averaged

(03:33):
just forty three games played in the regular season over
his last four seasons. He has either failed to appear
entirely or failed to finish his team's playoff run in
each of the last four seasons, and so that makes
him a very difficult player to rank as a result,
because the reality is, when he's healthy, he's a guy

(03:56):
who contributes to winning at a top five level as
a playoff player with the Clippers, not counting last year
because last year he played hurt and so he played
two games he looked bad. I think he averaged like
twelve points a game, So he probably just shouldn't even
have played in those games, right, and that was why
he ended up leaving the series. But if you take
those two games out, as a playoff player with the Clippers,

(04:16):
in twenty six games before last season, he averaged thirty points,
eight rebounds, and five assists on sixty three percent true
shooting and was an outstanding defender. That's not just superstar production.
That's like with the best guys in the league type
of production. There was literally a moment this year. Just
go back to March, so we're talking what's that five

(04:37):
months ago? Five months ago, there was a stretch where
the Clippers were dominating the league and Kawhi looked like
the best player on the best team in the league.
From November seventeenth to March ninth, the Clippers went thirty
eight and fourteen, and Kawhi averaged twenty five points on
fifty four percent from the field forty three per sent

(05:00):
from three on five attempts per game in ninety one.
At the line, that's that's insane. He looked like the
best player are the best team in the league. And
so this is complicated because on one hand, they're everyone above him.
You're easily taking over him to start a franchise for
the next season at least, because you just can count

(05:20):
on those guys to be available, at least to a
much greater extent than Kawhi. But at the same time,
if two equal teams were facing off tomorrow in a
playoff series and we knew Kawhi was healthy, you would
you take him over Tatum? I would would you take
him over Anthony Edwards? I would would you take him
over Joe Lmbat? I would would you take them over

(05:42):
shake yild justs Alexander? I would even the guys at
the top of the league, like Luca and Giannis or
the perennial great you know, a playoff players like Lebron
James and Steph Curry. I still think Kawhi can go
head to head with those guys. So like, it just
makes this really complicated, and honestly, like when we're looking

(06:03):
at this type of list, it just is it's almost
a sign of respect because I can make this list
and we can make fun of the Clippers all we want,
and we can talk about how Kawhi hasn't been available
in all of that. But if for whatever reason, we
fast forward to May and he is out there, he's

(06:26):
gonna be one of the top guys. So that's why
I thought this thirteen to twelve area made the most
sense for these two particular guys, because it's like a
gap tier. And obviously it's not an exact science, because
for example, I'd rather have a guy like Jalen Brown
on my team next year to lead my team, just
because I know Jaylen Brown's gonna play seventy games and
I know his body's gonna hold up for the playoff runt.

(06:48):
He's just a safer bet. But if Kawhi ran into
Jalen Brown in a playoff series and they were both healthy,
Kawhi's eating Jalen Brown's lunch in a seven gamer. So
it's just a tough thing to quantify. And so that
that's why I'm kind of using this gap tire so
really quickly. Last year, Kwhi Leonard sixty eight games, played
twenty three point seven points per game, fifty three percent
from the field, forty two percent from three to eighty

(07:09):
nine percent from the line. That amounts to fifty nine
percent an effective field goal percentage and sixty three percent
in true shooting percentage. Jump shooting stats from Synergy one
point zero nine points per jumper, one point two six
points per catch and shoot jumper. He shot forty eight
percent in field goal percentage on jump shots when he
was unguarded. So like, if you left Kawi open, it

(07:30):
was going in at least half the time, which is crazy.
One point zero. I shouldn't say at least half the time,
but basically half the time. One point zero one points
per pull up jumper. He shot forty five percent on
them overall. The only reason he's not as efficient as
some of the top guys as he takes a lot
of long twos. He also got one point three points
per face up jumper, which is excellent. He shot fifty
nine percent on floaters, took about one per game, fifty

(07:50):
percent on hooks, and seventy two percent at the rim.
All those numbers are insane. Play type data PERCENTERGY one
point zero four points per pick and roll including passes.
That's seventy fifth percentile, although he only ran three hundred
and sixty seven of them obviously because James Harden was
taking most of the pick and roll volume. He got
one point twenty five points per ISO including passes on
three hundred and sixty six reps. That puts him on

(08:10):
a high volume list. Kawhi Leonard was the best ISO
player in the league last year by a massive margin.
The second best player out of the twenty four players
run at least two hundred and fifty ISOs including passes
was DeMar derozen and Tomorrow is a full tenth, more
than a full tenth of a point per possession below Kawhi,

(08:34):
he was just by far the best in straight iso situations.
He also got one point one to four points per
pose up that's seventy eight percentile. And this really is
the crux of what makes Kawhi Leonard such an intriguing
basketball player. When he's healthy, he's almost robotic with his efficiency.
Every shot looks the same, it goes in damn near

(08:55):
every single time. He's so damn strong that nobody can
keep him from his spots. I talk about the every
year when we do Kawhi and the player rankings, but
like he's the case study for why going to the
weight room is one of the most important things a
young basketball player can do. Obviously, a guy like Lebron
is really strong, but he's also this like unbelievable supreme athlete.
Kawhi Leonard is a good athlete, but he's not like

(09:17):
a Lebron James level athlete. What makes him so impossible
to guard is he's just so damn strong that when
you're guarding him face up and he rips through to
the right, you could put your hands on him if
you want. He's just ripping through you. If you don't
cleanly beat him to his spot and chest up his shoulder.
If he gets his shoulder into your shoulder, he's going

(09:38):
through your shoulder. He's going through you to get to
his spot. If you're fouling him, if you're hacking him,
he's not as susceptible to that. If you hit him
a little bit when he's rising up into a jumper,
he's just gonna power through. If you try to foul
him at the rim, he's gonna power through seventy two
percent at the rim. And like, we talk about this
all the time, but like if you have the moves
and you have the IQ to get to the s,

(10:01):
but it's a really physical game and you don't have
the strength, then it's borderline useless. Having that strength is
a huge asset, and in my opinion, one of the
big reasons why Kawhi Leonard translates his game so well
to the postseason. As the physicality ramps up, he becomes
one of the guys that is most durable. I shouldn't

(10:21):
say durable is the wrong word. He becomes the most
resilient in terms of his ability to actually get to
those spots durability definitely not the strong point for Kawilener
and misspoke there, but that's what makes everything so interesting
with him. I think his strength is a real differentiator,
and he's covered for his weaknesses as a playmaker over
the years enough that he's become really resilient to different

(10:44):
coverages into different schemes, and that's why he's become such
a dominant playoff player. Here's the thing. Is Kawhi really
a threat this year? No, because none unless the Clippers
make some improvements. They lost Paul George for nothing, and
so even beyond the health stuff, I don't think they
have the firepower to make it out of that blood
bath of a Western Conference. But when he's healthy, he's

(11:06):
still one of the top tier superstars in this league
and he should be respected as such, even if he
shouldn't necessarily be feared. And so that's why I have
him where I have him on the list this year,
even though there are some guys behind him on this
list that theoretically are most likely to provide more value
within this season, you have to quantify the what if
he is healthy element, even though it's a little weird

(11:27):
now that he's been unhealthy four years in a row.

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Speaker 1 (12:15):
Number twelve. Jimmy Butler last year sixty games played. He's
averaged just fifty eight games played per season. Since coming
to Miami, he averaged twenty one points per game, five rebounds,
five assists, fifty percent from the field, forty one percent
from three to eighty six percent from the line, so
nearly a fifty to forty ninety season. That amounts to
fifty four percent in effective field goal percentage, sixty three

(12:36):
percent in true shooting. I'll be that. Albeit that was
actually down from his previous year. We're going to get
to that in a little bit. Shooting stats. He had
a really good jump shooting season. One point zero four
points per shot, one point three seven points per catch
and shoot jump shot. That's awesome. Not a good off
the dribble season though, zero point eight to one off
the dribble. Out of one hundred and five players to
attempt at least one hundred and fifty pull up jump shots,

(12:56):
Jimmy Butler ranked ninety six on that list. Not a
great You'll get your notices them going through these numbers.
A lot of really good numbers for Jimmy and then
a lot of really bad ones too. Forty three percent
on floaters, that's average, fifty eight percent at the rim.
That is not great. For not good, I should say
for a player of his size and athleticism. He got
zero point eighty nine points per pick and roll including passes.

(13:19):
That's in the thirty fifth percentile. That's not good. One
point one three points per ISO, including passes that made
or high volume list, and ranked third out of the
twenty four players to run at least two hundred and fifties.
So like, that's kind of what I mean by all
the up and down one hundred ninety eight points one
hundred ninety eight post ups. You guys can do the
math on that one. That was in the forty sixth percentile,

(13:39):
So slightly below average to me. Jimmy Butler's basically like
a lesser version of Kawhi that has been more available
to his team. But there are a lot of similarities.
Like Kawhi operates in ISO more than pick and roll.
Jimmy Butler is a guy that I shouldn't say more,
but he's a higher volume ISO guy compared to most
guys in the league and a lower volume pick and
roll guy compared to most guys in league. So is

(14:00):
Jimmy Butler. Kawhi Leonard uses his size and strength against
smaller perimeter players as his primary advantage. So does Jimmy Butler.
Both of them are capable of being dominant defensive players.
The main differences are, obviously, their personalities are very different.
But Jimmy's a little bit smaller, and he's been more
available more consistently to his team than Kawhi Leonard, even

(14:22):
in light of what happened last year in the postseason.
So that's why I have Jimmy above Kawhi in this
particular tier. But I actually think Jimmy's a little bit
under the radar going into this season. He obviously went
down a slight level from last year, like we're actually
starting to see just that little bit of a downturn
from Jimmy Butler. He just was a little bit worse
set most things last year, and then he also missed

(14:44):
the playoff run due to injury. Albeit it was kind
of a fluky fluky playing transition in the playing game,
but that obviously is less than ideal when you're talking
about these player rankings. But he's also fourteen months removed
from being the best player on a team that made
it to within three wins of an NBA championship. So
I just think it's too early to write him off.
The unfortunate thing is, and I'm sure Miami Heat fans

(15:05):
are starting to feel this a little bit, but it
felt like Jimmy and Bam was this awesome championship foundation,
and they just needed some higher level role players, particularly
a higher level offensive player in there somewhere. And there
are all these opportunities over the years where Miami could
have pounced on somebody, but they didn't. And now it
might be too late because Jimmy's starting to decline a
little bit, and so I don't know if they're even

(15:28):
looking in that direction anymore, or if they're actually looking
to move on from Jimmy sooner than later. Who knows
what the heater are going to try to do here,
But it felt like there was a window there in
that twenty twenty two to twenty twenty four timeline to
try to capitalize on the Jimmy Bam cord. It feels
like Miami might have missed out on that window. That said,
Jimmy has a lot more good basketball to play. I've
always referred to Jimmy as the bouncer at the championship club.

(15:51):
He's not actually in the club, but he's the bouncer outside.
He's obviously not as good as the top tier superstars
at the top of the league. But if your star
is not a legitimate championship level superstar in that tier
and he faces off with Jimmy. Jimmy will expose him,
and that basically is the best way to describe the
Miami Heat as a whole during this era. They expose

(16:15):
teams that aren't good enough, aren't made of the right
stuff to win a championship, but they end up losing
to the real championship caliber teams when they inevitably face them.
Last year, they end up losing to the eventual champion.
Even without Jimmy Butler, they lose to the eventual champion
in Boston. The year before they make it to the finals,
they lose to the eventual champion in Denver twenty twenty two.

(16:36):
That Boston team was fa but if I'm not missaying,
they were favored to win the championship. I ended up
picking Golden State in that series, and Golden State ended
up winning. But Boston was the most talented team in
the league that year and probably should have won that series.
They were up to one and had Game four at home,
But that's the team that ended up beating the Heat, right,
And then go back to twenty twenty one, who beat
them the Bucks the championship team. Go back to twenty

(16:58):
twenty who beat them, the Lakers, the championship team, Right,
So you guys kind of get the point, like, that's
just kind of what Jimmy Butler and Miami have been
in the Eastern Conference. They've been the bouncer, and it's
just unfortunate because had they invested more and been a
little bit more aggressive to try to put more talent
around this group, a group they very well might have
gotten a championship, especially in one of the open seasons

(17:18):
like twenty twenty two and twenty twenty one in particular.
We're both kind of wide open. Yeah, Jimmy at twelve,
just don't write him off yet. I think he's got
a lot of good basketball left in him. So all right,
let's get to our mail bag. A ton of really
good questions from you. Guys are going to be arguing

(17:38):
a bunch of different stuff for a bunch of different
players today. Hey, Jason, great video, and I like the
series so far. Admittedly biased as a Celtics fan, but
here's my basketball argument as to why JB should be
higher than Booker. While I can see that Booker, all
things equal, teammates, coaching staff, etcetera, is a better offensive
player overall than Jalen is. I think Jalen's offensive game
is much more valuable to a team concept and works

(18:00):
better in the postseason. You mentioned specifically that Booker generates
easier shots for teammates in the half court. Looking back
at the Suns getting swept by the Wolves, I think
Booker struggled to play off the ball and that made
the Suns more predictable and easier to guard. Also, Booker
isn't as athletic, or isn't athletic enough to blow by
his defenders or finish through contact nearly as often as

(18:20):
Jalen can. Booker is great at making tough shots. I
watched him score seventy on US a few years ago,
so I definitely respect that kind of skill, But that
doesn't work against a great defensive team. Well, the Wolves
swept them, and we kick their ass both times they
played US. I respect your basketball philosophy that half court
shot creation is king, but when you consider play style
on what works in the postseason, taking JB over Booker

(18:41):
and even a couple other guys that I'm sure you
will be highlighting in future VIDs, appreciate the content, and
I specifically love your player rankings discussion. So keep them coming.
Thank you for supporting the show, and thank you for
taking the time to break down the basketball case for
why you disagree a couple things. I agree that Booker
had a rough series, but for a different reason than
you think. I actually thought it was more of an
on ball issue and just him getting rushed and not

(19:03):
making the easy reads that were available hits him that
he had been making over the tail end of the season,
and I think the Suns kind of identified that because
look at the point guards that they've targeted this summer
to try to have Booker play more off the ball.
I actually think Booker is just a like ten out
of ten off ball player, just an incredible close out attacker,
an incredible knockdown shooter. You saw that with Team USA.

(19:24):
I mean that look how good he was in that
particular role. But I do agree that that Devin Booker
had a rough series. That said, he also has been
pretty reliably great in the playoffs for the most part
in his career. I mean, he's been hitting pull up
jump shots. I mean he lit up the Lakers in
twenty twenty one. I had to watch that. That was
hard for me to watch. I mean, obviously Anthony Davis

(19:45):
wasn't out there, but I watched Devin Booker just hit
every dayn pull up jump shot against the Laker team
that I was rooting for. Look at that NBA Finals run, Like,
how many times did you see him hit tough, contested
pull up jump shots in Drew Holliday's face, And Drew
was playing great defense. Like, Booker was pretty damn good
in that NBA Final series. Obviously made a couple of

(20:06):
big mistakes. He had that big turnover. I think it
was at the end of Game four if I remember correctly,
but for the most part it might have been Game five.
But yeah, like I think I thought last year was
kind of somewhat of an outlier in that Booker had
a rough series and it was kind of a tough
matchup for him. But I actually think generally he's been
a very reliable offensive player. I do think Jalen Brown
is a bit underrated as an offensive player, But I

(20:28):
disagree with your point that you think Jalen's offensive game
is more valuable to a team concept. I actually think
it's the opposite. I think like Booker is especially good
at playing with other good players. I think we saw
that with Team USA, and so I think he actually
accentuates the talents of those around him. A very good
point about Jalen's rim pressure. It's a specific skill that
I think is underrated and very very important for all

(20:51):
the positive impact that it gives to a team. But
if you remember yesterday, I kind of read off the numbers.
I can't remember him off the top of my head,
but Devin Booker actually gets to the rim more than
most guards. I think he was like, if I remember correctly,
there was only four guards below six five or below
sixty six or less, and Jalen was one of the
guys who was above him. But there's only four guys
above Devin Booker. Devin Booker actually gets to the rim

(21:12):
a ton. We did a breakdown on that yesterday. The
main differentiator to me is the playmaking piece. Jalen's gotten better.
We talked about that yesterday, but there's still a massive
gap there. To me between Devin Booker and Jalen. Brown
is a playmaker, and that I think makes him just
a more impactful, substantially more impactful half court offensive player.
Substantially is maybe a little aggressive, but I think he's

(21:32):
a more impactful half court offensive player, and as we've
talked about, that's something I value a great deal. But
really good points made, and thank you for laying it
all out. And again, these are all really tough decisions
to make, and that's why they were all right next
to each other in the rankings. Hey, Jason, I think
you're underestimating how well JB plays when he's the go
to number one option offensively. Tatum doesn't miss many games,

(21:53):
but when he does, JB averages like thirty points a game.
He's an elite scorer now and that can be a
number one player on offense, I agree, which is a
prerequisite for him to be in the tier of can
be the best player on a championship team, even if
it is with overwhelming support. That said, like I think
Tatum is a clear like I have Tatum still a
tier above Jalen Brown. I think he's encroaching on it,

(22:15):
and there's a chance that in the future they're on
the same tier. But right now, Tatum is just a
way better passer than Jalen Brown, and I think that's
a big differentiator between the two of them. But again,
the gap is closing. Tatum's going down a little level
as his jump shot gets less reliable, and Jalen Brown's
extending a level as his playmaking gets more reliable and
his feel for the game and commitment to defense is improving,

(22:35):
like the gap is closing. But I still think that
and I do agree that Jalen Brown is good enough
to be the best player on a championship team. That's
why he's in this tier that I still have Jason
Tatum a full tier above him. Are you just projecting
for the future or do you actually think Aunt is
better than Booker right now? By no metric, is Aunt
substantially better than Booker and he is definitively not on
a different tier. So I actually got into a discussion

(22:58):
about this today with a buddy of mine covers the Suns.
But I'm not going to talk about I had a
lot of comments from people complaining about how high of Ant,
which we haven't even gotten to Ant yet, and so
I don't want to talk about necessarily how high he
is until we get to Ant in the rankings, just
because we're gonna have plenty of time to talk about
that in the next couple of weeks. But specifically with Booker,

(23:19):
this is all I'm gonna say for now, I'm not
gonna talk about Ant in the context of the league
until we get to Ant, but specifically with Ant and Booker,
I do think Booker is actually on a different tier
than Ant as a supporting player. So if you put
him as like a secondary or tertiary star, or if
you put him on tmusa where he's playing alongside a
bunch of stars, I'd rather have Devin Booker. He just

(23:42):
is a much more versatile basketball player in terms of
his ability to fit his game into different types of
small roles and to play alongside other stars, but specifically
to be the best player on the team. I think
Ant is on a different tier than Devin Booker. He's
so transcendently athletic that it is just like a force

(24:02):
of nature. Over the course of eighty two games, Anthony
Edwards was one of only two guards in the entire
league last year to average at least six shot attempts
in the restricted area per game and shoot at least
sixty five percent while he was there. And he did
that with Rudy go Bear's awkward ass clogging things up
in the paint, inable to catch anything and finish anything

(24:25):
like I can only imagine what Anthony Edwards would look
like if you picked him up and you dropped him
in like a situation with some real spacing, Like if
you dropped Anthony Edwards in Boston's five out attack, I
think he'd be like a Yannis Zion level rim attacker.
I think he'd literally get nine to ten restricted area

(24:47):
attempts per game. Like that's how difficult it is to
keep him in front off the dribble. The problem is
teams can really load up the strong side. Against Minnesota.
It is their biggest weakness. It's why their offense fell
upon against Denver in the middle part of that series,
and their defense was the thing that was able to
pull them out of that mess. But when they went
down three to two and then against Dallas, their offense

(25:08):
completely fell apart for that exact same reason. Dallas knew,
load up the strong side, bring your you know, just
literally loaded up and take away the paint and they're
just not gonna make enough jump shots. And that's literally
what ended up happening. But like I think, Ant is
a one of the very very few transcendently athletic players
in the league. The other thing with Ant is, in

(25:29):
addition to making strides as a playmaker in addition to
making strides as a defender. Ant is on this crazy
run now where he's turned into like a pretty deadly
accurate jump shooter, especially off the dribble. And so again, like,
if I need a guy to play alongside another star
or to play a small role on Team USA, give
me Devin Booker ten out of ten times. But if
I need a player to build a team around and

(25:52):
to be my number one option for eighty two games
and four rounds, I take Ant ten out of ten times.
So that's the specific dynamic for those two guys. But
we'll talk more about Ant and his overall value because
I have a bunch of stuff that I want to
get into with Ant, but I just want to save
it for later on when we actually cover him, because
it just doesn't make sense to do it at this
point in the greater scheme. I think you're right, there's

(26:14):
very little room between the four players you have from
seventeen to fourteen. I would argue that one thing you
underestimate is the ball security that Brunson brings to the table.
His assist atorney over ratio is a huge factor and
why the Knicks offense is successful similar to their offensive
rebounding edge, which nets them in extra possessions and extra
scoring chances. That's a huge part of why Brunson is
such a great offensive creator, as well as their transition defense,

(26:36):
because he doesn't turn it over and the Knicks don't
get caught for easy transition baskets and get to dictate
the pace of the game. So I'm not going to
actually rebuttal this because I've talked a lot about why
I've Brunson where he's ranked in yesterday's video, But I
just thought this was a really interesting point about ball
security and something that makes Brunson a very impactful half
court shot creator. So I just wanted to share that

(26:56):
with you guys, So thank you for the comment. I
thought that was a really interesting point about what makes
Bruntson so good. And again, as far as like the rankings,
as we talked about, they're all just really close to
each other. I told you guys yesterday, if you put
Brunson at twelve, I would totally get that. And it's
these guys just wait, I'm already thinking about the top
eleven and I still don't even know who I'm gonna

(27:17):
put out eleven. I have a guy in mind right now,
but I'm like tempted to switch it, and I'm gonna
sleep on it all weekend and we'll see. But like,
just try ranking your top eleven players. It's insane. Like
it's insane. Whoever gets put at eleven, it's gonna be
a problem. Like whoever it is, like it, it's gonna
be really interesting to see how that shakes out. Uh,

(27:42):
here we go. If you thought Jalen put in work
for the slander he got last season, just wait until
we see Tatum and Brown next season. One of them
absolutely deserving of a huge role on the Olympic team
where he barely got minutes, and the other feels strongly
that he should have made the team and didn't even
make the roster at all. Those two who are going
to come out next season to prove themselves even more
than the last season. I agree Jalen Brown. I tweeted
out today that he's having a great summer. I don't

(28:02):
think that was about vacation. I think that was about
the work he's putting in behind the scenes. I think
Jalen Brown took the USA snub as well as just
him getting a Finals MVP is just like a boost
of confidence and a boost of motivation. And I actually
think Jaylen Brown is poised to go up another level.
And then I agree, I think I think Tatum's pissed.
I think Tatum's pissed that he didn't play well. I
think tatums piss that he didn't play well in the
postseason run. I shared this stat the other day. He

(28:24):
shout out for fifty percent just three times in the
entire playoff run. Like that's embarrassing for Jason Tatum. So
like like, I think Jayson Tatum's gonna have a big
bounce back year next year, and I think his jump
SHOT's going to be fine. So I tend to agree
with you. I think the Celtics. I mean, I haven't
done my preseason rankings or anything, but I'm basically one
hundred percent certain the Celtics are going to be my
title favorite. I think anybody would be foolish to pick

(28:46):
against them at this point. There are lots of teams
that can win the title, and I wouldn't be shocked
at all if Boston didn't win the title. If I
have to choose the Field or Boston, I'd probably take
the field, But Boston to me is a clear favorite,
and I think it stems from the fact that they
won the title despite the fact that Tatum didn't play
particularly well and he's going to get better, and you know,
in addition to the issues that Porzingis was having with

(29:07):
his health. I think your logic is flawed when considering
defense versus offense. I do think offense is slightly more important,
but stars who aren't very good defensively will hurt your
team no matter how good they are defensively. Look at
Minnesota versus Phoenix. You have two Phoenix players in your
top fourteen because they are offensive stars, that being Kevin
Durant and Devin Booker. They were shut down by superior defense.

(29:28):
With defensive stars, the idea that offensive stars can play
their way out of being bad on defense is just wrong.
The main difference between Phoenix and a team like Dallas
is Dallas had the guys that can do the tough
jobs like we talked about right, So, like they had
Derek Jones Junior who could guard the ball, they had
Derek Lively and Daniel Gafford who could both defend in
different ways in their ball screen coverages. They had PJ. Washington,

(29:50):
who could be like a legitimate low man like backside
four who could get defensive rebounds and help and pick
and roll coverages. Right, So like they had those guys,
Phoenix didn't. Phoenix had a Kogi is a guy who
could guard at the point of attack, but was nowhere
near as good offensively as Derek Jones Junior was, who
had turned himself into a pretty solid close out attacker
and a guy that was couldn't make above the break

(30:12):
threes as much as they needed him to, but hit
enough shots Like Derek Jones was just better offensive player
than Josh Kogi, And use of Nurkic is a disaster
defensively compared to the Lively Gafford guys, Like specifically Lively,
I thought that Nurkic competed defensively and was a little
underrated for how well he worked with his hands and
got deflections and at least tried on defense, but he

(30:35):
was certainly not a defensive anchor at the center position.
And so like that's my point is like I'm not
saying that you can't. I'm not saying that you can
build a good defense with offensive minded stars that don't
defend I'm saying you can do that as long as
you have guys that can fill the other roles on

(30:55):
the floor that are the tougher defensive roles, which Phoenix
did not have. Again, like, I'm of the opinion that
if you just picked up Derek Lively and put him
on the Suns, that they could craft a top ten
defense there, because then at that point, it's like you
asked Kadie to be the low man. You've got Derek
Lively to be your pick and roll defender. You've got
you can put a guy like a Josha Kogi at

(31:16):
the point of attack and you still have enough offensive
talent around it. That's my thing is like Phoenix's issue
isn't that their stars don't defend. It's that their stars
don't defend, and they didn't have role players that could
play defense at a really high level. That's the issue.
Dallas didn't have that problem. To their credit, they built
a roster that could accommodate that. Is this ranking more
based on the twenty twenty three to twenty twenty four

(31:37):
performance or on the twenty twenty four to twenty twenty
five expectation. I think that's important to clarify. Thank you
so much, Jason, love the show, love your analysis. Although
there's probably some different opinions, especially on those older superstars,
I've already learned so much from your content. Thank you,
Thank you for the sport, thank you for the kind words.
To be clear, this is meant from now Ford. If
I was the entire purpose of the drill is or
the list is if we had thirty teams and all

(31:59):
four hundred and fifty players and we were doing a
snake draft right now, I should just say a draft
right now, because we're only doing twenty five players. Who
would you take if with your first pick to build
your franchise for this particular season upcoming and any in
a vacuum, so irrespective of surrounding talent and within the

(32:19):
context of being the best player on your team. Next question.
Before the Mitchell Robinson injury, Hartenstein looked was looked at
as a backup big Since getting an opportunity, he has
now earned himself an eighty million dollar contract. Wasn't it
a ninety million? I thought it was three years ninety million.
It could be wrong. How many other players are there

(32:40):
in the NBA with the right opportunity that would be
able to do what Hartenstein has done. So it's just
a huge influx in like a perceived value of the
center position. I thought it was really fascinating between Jared Allen,
who's like somewhere around like the eighth or ninth best
starting center in the league, to Isaiah Hartenstein to Nick Claxton.
Those guys are in somewhere in the ten to twenty range, right, Like,

(33:01):
these are all guys that are in the middle tier
of starting centers, the top tier being obviously Jokicic and
Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid and bam Adebaio and like
Victor wimb Yama, and then you go down to this
like next tier of like like role players starting centers
or like mid level starting centers. Nick Claxton got twenty
five million a year, Hartenstein got I want to say,

(33:24):
just under thirty, right, Like Jared Allen got just over thirty.
And so the league is telling you that you need
that position. And I think there's a couple different reasons
why one pick and roll defense is so important and
the ability to compete on the glass is so important,
But another big part of it is just five out offense.
You need bigs that can set screens and roll hard
to the rim and keep the ball moving from side
to side. There's just a lot of value in that

(33:45):
specific position. Like within Cleveland, like Evan Mobley's really struggling
to score on the role, Jared Allen is not, so
he's just such an important foundational piece for them, right.
Isaia Hartenstein excellent, five out big. I haven't watched a
ton of the Nets over the last couple of years,
but Nick Claxton kind of fits into that tier as well.
If eighty and Lebron are both top ten players and
clearly on a whole different tier from Jalen Brunson, why

(34:07):
were the Lakers a playing team in the Knicks a
two seed Brunson carried the Knicks not a big deal.
Just doesn't make much sense to me. A couple things.
First of all, the Lakers had forty seven wins and
the Knicks had fifty wins, so there wasn't like some
substantial gap there. Second of all, last year, the East
was incredibly weak at the bottom. As a matter of fact,
the West went six hundred and fifty and five hundred

(34:28):
and eighty against the East, so the West was seventy
games over five hundred and had to head matchups with
the Eastern Conference. An easy way to demonstrate the difference
in the competition between the two conferences is the Lakers
were seventeen and fifteen against teams that were in the
top ten in point differential according to Cleaning the Glass.
The Knicks were nine and fifteen. So there's two things

(34:51):
we can take away from that. One, the Knicks played
top ten teams eight fewer times than the Lakers did.
Second piece of that is that the the Lakers were
just way they were above five hundred and the Knicks
were well below five hundred in those matchups. So like,
the Lakers are one of those teams, they're kind of weird.
They I actually, I think the Lakers were one of

(35:11):
the better teams in the league last year. Not in
the contender tier, but they were in that next tier
of teams. I remember exactly where I put them in
my championship rankings, but I want to say they were
like fifth or sixth or something like that. But a
big part of that was the Lakers were a really
good team that had a bad stretch. If you look
at their entire season, forty seven wins, but they had

(35:32):
a three to ten stretch right after the n season tournament.
They were dominant up through winning the Ncason Tournament, and
then they relaxed and played shit basketball for a month
and it cost them in the standings. But outside of that,
on both ends of that bracket, they were a really
good team. And I mean look at that. I mean,
if you guys watched them against Denver, they outplayed Denver
the majority of that series. They got gamed by Jamal

(35:52):
Murray twice, like the Nuggets pulled their crazy Houdini act
in the crunch time on the Lakers twice. Otherwise, the
Lakes straight up out played the Nuggets in three of
the five games, so like, and even Nuggets Nuggets players
after the series talked about how the Lakers could have
beaten them, you know what I mean. So like, I
don't think the Lakers are a top tier championship contender.

(36:14):
I don't think last year's Nicks were. But I thought
last year's Lakers were better than last year's Knicks. And
I think, like a lot of times, people look at
the playing tournament and they go like, oh, these two
like eighty and Lebron are both top ten and they're
not winning enough games, and it's like, actually, the West
is just a damn bloodbath, and the Lakers were also
incredibly poorly coached. The last piece of it, too, is

(36:35):
just the quality of role players. And this is the
main issue here, because like Jalen, Brunson still won fifty
games without a guy like eighty or Lebron next to him,
and Lebron and eighty had each other. So I get
your point. To be clear, I get the point you're
trying to make. The main issue is quality of role players.
I talked about this before the Lakers surrounded Anthony Davis

(36:55):
and Lebron with a bunch of specialists who are really
good at specific things, but all have mass of glaring weaknesses.
I actually was thinking about this the other day. Who
is the best two way player on the Lakers other
than Lebron and Ad. It's probably Austin Reeves. But Austin
Reeves is at best an average to slightly above average

(37:16):
point of attack defender at best, and he's your third
best player. D'Angelo Russell disaster on defense, Rouey Hachimura disaster
on defense, Jared Vanderbilt disaster on offense. You know, guys
like Jackson Hayes and Christian Jackson. Hayes was a disaster
on defense. Christian Wood disaster on defense. He was good

(37:37):
defensive rebounder, but struggled in a bunch of other areas.
So like the Lakers didn't have any guys that could
play both ends of the floor. Look at the Knicks,
even with their injuries. It's like Dante DiVincenzo, like a
really solid two way player plays both ends of the
floor really well. Like Josh hart Like a really solid
two way player plays both ends of the floor really well.
You know, ogn and Obi Just like a rock solid

(37:58):
two way wing that plays both ends of the four
really well. Isai Hartenstein, I think is a functional, solid
defensive center and a really good offensive center. Like the
Knicks were a really good basketball team, by the way,
I have them entering into my top tier championship contenders
this year with the return of Julius Randall in the
addition of Michale Bridges. Like I understand that Jalen Brunson

(38:19):
overcame some adversity last year and I really enjoyed watching him,
But I also think the Knicks were good. I think
the Knicks were good, Like I think if you just
take Dante DiVincenzo and Josh Hart and swap him with
D'Angelo Russell and Ruy Hatcher Mura. The Lakers become a
much better team immediately, because now, all of a sudden,
you got like these really good two way role players
that you can put around Lebron James and Anthony Davis.

(38:40):
And that, to me is the main issue that the
Lakers are having. And man, I hope they can figure
it out at some point before they get into the
postseason next year. But I do appreciate the point you're
trying to make, and I do appreciate the comment. In
no world could book be the best player on a
championship team. Totally disagree. The twenty twenty one Sons were
up two to OHO in the finals and just lost
a couple clutch games at the end of the series.

(39:01):
I think Booker's clearly in that tier. I see a
lot of young players jumping up a year from now.
Bancaro will make a huge jump this year. So Paalow
was my twenty sixth man, if I remember correctly. This year,
I think I was torn between him and Paul George,
if I remember correctly. So I tend to agree that
Palo is one of those guys that very well could

(39:22):
have been on this list, and I also agree with
you that I think the list is going to look
very different next year because I think a bunch of
young players are going to take leaps, and I also
think some of our older guys are going to take
drops after this year. Two more questions. You said you
had Luca higher than Giannis when considering that you had
Booker over JB because being an offensive engine is just
a much better value than being an overduiced role player. However,

(39:43):
seeing how bad Luca was as a player defensively where
they will deliberately attack him, and offensively he was missing
crucial three throws. He also struggled to shoot threes in
that series and will steam out at the end of
games while being turnover prone, compared to Giannis, who is
as bad as he might be offensively still gives you
thirty and fifteen with his best top ten defense. At least,
you can't take the supporting cast being bad as an

(40:03):
argument for Luca when people were bashing Giannis last year
for underperforming in the Heat series while averaging thirty and
thirteen ish and not getting deliberately attacked on defense. Both
have a second option highly skilled, undersized guards as a
second option. In my opinion, this is pretty much like
a remake of the twenty nineteen MVP, but one here
is still a thirty to fifteen to five guy while
not being less than a top fifteen defender in the league,

(40:25):
while the other is arguably the best offensive player in
the league with conditioning issues while having the potential to
be the worst defensive player on the court despite having
a great defensive coach like Jason Kidd. I actually saw
a video of Luca's game winner against the Clippers the
other this morning, and it was crazy to see how
thin Luca looked, and it kind of got me concerned
because then I was like, Okay, so we're all talking

(40:46):
about how Luca needs to get in shape, but he
seems to be kind of trending in the wrong direction
in that specific department. A couple things. Luca had a
disastrous defensive series against the Celtics, is the worst defensive
series I've ever seen from a star ever. But the
Celtics present a very unique challenge, one that's basically unprecedented

(41:10):
in NBA history, which is they put out five players
that can all shoot, pass, dribble and defend, and that
it's basically unprecedented and I don't think we'll ever see
it again because those guys are all super expensive in
an open market. They have five thirty million dollar players

(41:32):
and a lot of those guys are in existing contracts
that in the future it would be sixty seventy million
dollar contracts. So like, here's the thing, Luca embarrassed himself
defensively in the finals. It needs to be talked about,
and again for the record, trust me, it's getting factored
in and it will it will matter when we get
later in the list. But the Celtics would have done

(41:54):
that to a lot of different stars that have defensive issues.
There are a lot of offensive minded stars that get
hidden on defense. And it works against twenty nine of
the teams usually or twenty eight of the teams, I
should say, because they don't have five guys that can drill,
a pass, shoot and defend like Boston does. So like
some of that is like you got to tip the
cap to Boston for just the type of roster they have.
But yeah, of course it was embarrassing for Luca. Of

(42:15):
course it needs to be factored in. To me, though,
I've seen plenty of examples of Giannis in his team
losing playoff series because he can't execute in the clutch.
You mentioned the series against the Heat in twenty twenty three.
In that series, there were a couple of clutch games
where Jimmy just walked down Yannis and Janis couldn't even
make a little hook shot in the lane, and that

(42:35):
continues to be his biggest issue. And so for me,
I feel like in the majority of matchups, I feel
like I can cover for Luca defensively and he's still
one of the best offensive players in the world, and
that's why I have him over Yiannis on this list
when we get to that point. But interesting argument, and
I appreciate you taking the time to break it down.
Last one. It makes me crazy when you make up
shit like this. The Mavericks held the number one offense

(42:56):
in the NBA to one hundred and one points per
game and never let them score more than a hundred
seven any game of the series. They didn't have vast
stretches where their defense was swamped. That's a complete lie
and it's provable by the statistics. Stop making shit up.
We have an angry Mavericks fan here, I'll just read
some real basic numbers. In the first half of Game one,

(43:18):
they gave up one hundred and thirty four offensive rating
to Boston. In Game two and a sixteen minute span
over the second and third quarters, they allowed forty four
points as Boston blew built the one point lead into
a thirteen point lead. In Game three, in the second half,
they gave up nineteen points in four minutes as Boston
blew a seven point game into a twenty one point game.
And in Game five, Boston had a one hundred and

(43:40):
forty six offensive rating in the first half. So I
don't know what fantasy land that Mavericks fan is living in,
all right, guys. That is all I have for today
is always as sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show.
We are taking the rest of the weekend off we have.
This is actually airing on Saturday. The Mailbag is gonna
air on a Sunday. Monday morning, are starting our Superstar tears.

(44:02):
Still don't know who I'm gonna have at number eleven.
I have my list. I haven't changed it yet, but
I've been thinking about changing it. So we'll see what
I end up deciding on Monday morning it should be
fun again. I appreciate you guys for supporting the show
and for rocking with me. I'll see you guys on Monday.

(44:39):
The Volume