The Favorites - NFL Week 1 Betting Preview - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I'm smiling. We are live from our Tommy John Home Studios.
That's right. We have stepped up into the big leagues

(00:31):
with our friends at Tommy John. I'm joined as always
by my co host, my companion, Mike campadre my BFF
professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
Hello Chad.

Speaker 3 (00:46):
I was wondering why I look so good and sounds
so clean. Now I know Tommy John Studios.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
That's right. But listen, we could talk about Tommy John
all day.

Speaker 2 (00:55):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
We finally arrived at week one of the NFL season.
For those of you who are new here, every week
we record three episodes of this show. It's live only
on the Action Network YouTube channel and in the Action
Network app. Subscribe to the YouTube channel. That's where you're

(01:16):
going to get our information in the moment. Sometimes these
lines move, so you want to check it out. Every
Tuesday at one thirty, Simon and I do our betting
preview episodes. We go through every game on the slate.
We do our Foxhole Pick, our executive decision, pick our
Simon says Pick. Every Thursday, eleven am Eastern, we do
our Best Bets episode. That's where Simon and I narrow

(01:39):
down to our top five picks for our huge free
to play one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.
We also on that Thursday do a round of Sharp Calls.
That's where we get input from the wise guys who
listen to the Tuesday show. They might have critiques, they
might agree with us. We also do now We're New,

(02:01):
Tommy John, Big Balls, Bet of the Week, our Underdog
money Line, RLA, and more. And then on Sunday seven
thirty Eastern, we do our NFL recap show. We talk
about how our bets did, We wrap up before kickoff
of Sunday Night of Football, and we start looking ahead
of the lines for the following week. Once again, if

(02:21):
you're listening to the show and you're not signing up
for this contest, it doesn't make sense to me, because
it's free money. You should be joining our free, free
Free Favorites podcast. One hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em
Contest presented by Bet three six five five picks against
the spread. Every week, over one hundred thousand dollars in

(02:41):
cash prizes up for grabs, including a first place prize
of forty thousand dollars. Sign up Favorites dot action network
dot com. We know some people had some problems signing
up when we started talking about the contest. Got that fixed.
If you run into an issue, try end of the season.
The top ten finishers get paid. First place is forty thousand,

(03:04):
second place ten thousand. Every single week a first place
finisher is getting a grand all for signing up and
winning a contest. You're going to be making the bets anyways.
You might as well go Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com Again.
We'll be talking about this contest every week for the
next eighteen weeks. You are competing against me and Simon. Okay,
this is like your chance to compete against us. Don't

(03:25):
get left out. Sign up for your chance at a
forty thousand dollars first first place prize Favorites at actionnetwork
dot Com. Before we dive into the week one slate,
the favorites is presented by Bet three six five. Bet
three six five doesn't do ordinary, That's why you get
more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every day
they pow up the odds one hundred to bets to
give you a chance to win more. Bet three sixty

(03:46):
five boost specific market to your winnings and even parlays.
They don't stop there. Keep an eye out for their
biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost. Check
out the boosts see why It's never ordinary at Bet
three six five. Must be twenty one or older in
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

(04:06):
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right, as we did
last year. There's a couple of season long props that
we want to make sure we're keeping track of. You
guys can still jump in on these. We will track
them all season long on the show. Trevor Lawrence lead
the league in passing at twenty two to one. Max

(04:26):
Crosby DPO WI Defensive Player of the Year seven to one.
Aiden Hutchinson to lead the league in sacks fourteen to one. Simon,
I'm adding Cooper Cup most receiving yards three. Yeah, you
talked about that on Green Dot Daily today. I loved it.
I'm gonna add that into my list no more than
Jilly Tally Simon.

Speaker 2 (04:45):
We gotta talk about a game.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
Pa, Take then.

Speaker 2 (04:53):
To the squee below.

Speaker 1 (04:58):
Cannes City, Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs layoff rematch. I
want to remind you that this is the moment we
were convinced the Ravens were the right side in this
playoff game. This was the moment when the Ravens abandoned
the run game, reverted back to the habits that cost
them in years pass and lost the game. This was

(05:20):
the moment when we decided that there was no way
we could bet against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl,
even though we liked the Niners and they probably had
the better overall team, because no one wins betting against
Patrick Mahomes. Simon, please tell the listeners what we are
doing in this game.

Speaker 3 (05:37):
Yeah, it's going to be back Chad week one lines.
And what a great game to start with. I mean,
come on, NFL gave us a great game here. I
know a lot of people thought it would be the
Chiefs Houston, but I love that they're going with the.

Speaker 2 (05:48):
AFC Championship games start the season off.

Speaker 3 (05:50):
It's just like two teams that you know, not that
they are new identities, but they're not what they were
last year. I think the line reflects that, Chad, right,
I mean, this is an eight point swing. That line
was five last year in the playoffs. Now it's plus three.
So clearly there's a lot of movement and a lot
of public perception here, and me and Chad are gonna
overthink this one.

Speaker 2 (06:09):
If this was two and a half.

Speaker 3 (06:11):
I bet you me and Chad would like the Chiefs
here because Evan He's I mean, just killed us with
that stat. At anytime, anytime you get my Homes under
a field goal, you take it. It doesn't matter if
it's two and a half or if he's a three
point dog. Long term, you just bet Mahomes. And that's
the exact scenario. On the flip side. Me and you
talk about all the time we bet Lamar as a dog.
I think this year we're gonna have many opportunities like this,

(06:33):
betting him as a dog, just because they are not
as strong as they were last year, right, I think
there are more questions across their offensive line and their
defensive line, Like there are question marks there, and now
you're throwing the loser McDonald to the Seattle Seahawks. It's like, Okay,
their brilliant defensive coordinators left now and he's in Seattle.

Speaker 2 (06:52):
What's this defense gonna look like this? Kyle Hamilton still
the same freedom, So a lot of unknowns here.

Speaker 3 (06:57):
Luckily, this couldn't be one of our fives anyway, right
because this doesn't fit our contest criteria. So I feel
luckier because this would have been a hard decision. Honestly,
at two and a half, I might have been convinced
to put this one in chet. That's how that's how
strong I feel about Mahomes and this this Chief team
coming to this season. And that's my question mark to
this Ravens team. But plus three, come on, we're playing
the numbers, we're playing the odds.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
We will take a little more at that number.

Speaker 1 (07:19):
Se So I thing isn't our favor to play the
Ravens in this spot. We know we hate going against
Patrick Mahomes. And for the record, Patrick Mahomes, he's not
great as a favorite in his career, but you have
to discount the fact that so many of those games
when he is playing as a favorite, he is a
massive favorite. As a favorite of a field goal, He's
actually eleven and seven in his career. However, Lamar Jackson

(07:45):
twelve and one in his career as an underdog's past
over the past three seasons, seven and zero against the
spread as a dog. John Harbaugh, let's talk about Harbaugh
for a second. Okay, John Harbaugh, Like, this guy is
bonkers as a head coach. Can you name the most

(08:07):
profitable Week one NFL coach in the Action Labs database
going back twenty years? Simon, John.

Speaker 4 (08:20):
John?

Speaker 2 (08:21):
I remember I thought it was McVeigh because all those
years of gone.

Speaker 1 (08:24):
Guy, I just set you up.

Speaker 2 (08:25):
It's John freaking ar Harbal right.

Speaker 1 (08:27):
John Harbaugh is so good on extra rest, big bad
John right, which is essentially, he's had ten months of preparation.
Ravens twenty seven and eight straight up, twenty thirteen and
two against the spread. If he looked just at Week one,

(08:48):
twelve and four, has failed to cover just once in
the past eight years. I know it's scary, we're gonna
be asking you to do so many scary, gross, disgusting
things in this show. This is not the show where
we're going to tell you bet the Chiefs, bet the
Cowboys outright whatever, every single week. This is the show

(09:09):
where we tell you who to bet, no matter how
ugly it is. Bet the Ravens plus three up.

Speaker 2 (09:17):
Gotta do it all right.

Speaker 1 (09:20):
This is a pro joe game right now, and it's
interesting because the public is on the Packers and the
pros are on the Eagles. The game is lined at
two and a half Eagles minus two and a half.
Got I got a lot of stuff like that are
applicable here. If you're looking at short dogs to start
the season, then you need to think about the fact

(09:42):
that favorites of by the way one to three and
a half, which both the Ravens and the Packers fit in.
They're terrible in September. That's all I'm going to say.
What do we think of the Packers here against your team,
against a team you think has the best roster in
the NFL?

Speaker 3 (09:57):
Another game, though, if you could avoid, I'd avoid it,
like we're talking about a game in Brazil. It's truly.
This is a cash grab for the NFL, and it's
like too many unknowns are really trying to handicap it.
It's a ten hour flight, Like that's a big deal.
These guys are flying all the way down there, and
you know we talk all the time. Like the craziest
part about this game is the Eagles lose a home

(10:18):
game here to Green Bay and these are two teams
that we both talked about chat. We think these are
guys gonna be fighting for a playoff spot. So like
this week one game in Brazil might decide playoff scene.
It's a very bizarre scenario, so to me, like if
you're in a contest or I know a lot of
people already reached out to me they're pickpools.

Speaker 2 (10:35):
This line locked a one and a half. That's pretty
good value.

Speaker 3 (10:37):
Like if you want to roll the dice and you know,
take the one point one and a half points of
value and play this number, you can do it. I
think Chad's are the right mentality are saying, like if
this is three, why would you not take Green Bay
with the plus three? Like with all the unknowns and
the Eagles have new coordinators. It's Lafleor is a dog,
which Sheddy even mentioned, like Lafour is a dog, it's

(10:58):
been very profitful to us, even as Rogers years like
when he's a dog. It's a nice bet to make,
so to me, too many questions, I would even if
you had one and a half, I would honestly avoid
this one into the contest just because again it's in Brazil,
it's week one, and there's so many other things going on. Logistically,
I just I'd rather pass on this one and play

(11:19):
on more stable games here in America. So I definitely
definite cash grab for the league and you know, a
game that could have huge effects come January. So definitely
a great game though, right a spotlight game on a
Friday night. I don't want to complain about that, Like
I love we have a Thursday Friday game because that
was always the worst, right Chad, the two days in
between the Sunday. But yeah, still Eagles, Eagles fans, Green

(11:43):
Bay fans that are mad about this game.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
I totally get it.

Speaker 1 (11:47):
Matt before, second most profitable coach against the spread the
past five years, behind just Dan Campbell, And.

Speaker 2 (11:56):
As honest as I can, I don't. I really don't
even know how to respond that, you know, I mean,
I'm shocked by that.

Speaker 1 (12:04):
Also in the first three weeks of the regular season.
So think about this for next week. Matt Lafloor thirteen
and two against the spread.

Speaker 3 (12:10):
So again, just take the plus three, sad just laying
it out for you.

Speaker 1 (12:14):
Take the plus three if you can get it. Right now,
It's a two and a half for me this game, like,
I don't really want to touch it. I just want
to watch it, enjoy it because I know that the
night before I'll need at least twenty four hours to recover.
All right, Now we can get into games that we know,
we can talk about putting in the contest. Yeah, and
this first game is just it's testing everything about what
we believe and what we are seeing right now. Pittsburgh

(12:39):
plus three at Atlanta. We love Pittsburgh, we hate Atlanta.
We don't know anything about the new coach in this environment.
Rahuemoris for the Falcons. We love Mike Tomlin.

Speaker 2 (12:51):
Football is our game. Our business is winning.

Speaker 1 (12:55):
We don't like Russell Wilson, we don't like Kirk Cousins,
but I don't want to get bet against Mike Tomlin.
Don't forget the short dog in week one. I just
read you the stat covering at a very consistent rate
sixty four percent since twenty eighteen.

Speaker 2 (13:13):
You gotta win it.

Speaker 1 (13:14):
That's we got a lot to say about this game.
But I want to hear your take first instinct.

Speaker 2 (13:19):
Yeah, the bookmakers.

Speaker 3 (13:20):
I talked to you, Chad, this is another pros verse
shows the pros love.

Speaker 2 (13:24):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (13:24):
I mean, uh, Pittsburgh here and the public are really
heavy on Atlanta and you know, Chat just talk about
all the question marks with the Pittsburgh. This number is
bumped back up to three. It was down to two
and a half. But it's just kind of been all
a negative, right, Chat, This whole August kind of felt
like it's been negative for this Pittsburgh team.

Speaker 2 (13:40):
Where to me, there's no other guy rather back than Domin.

Speaker 3 (13:43):
When it's all negative, right, He's the best at just
canceling out the noise. So the fact that it's his
plus three, it's Kirk cousins first game coming off of
major surgery on his achilles, going against one of the
best pass rush and you know, defense is all football.
It's hard not to like Pittsburgh here at plus three.
But Chad's right, like there's a games across the board

(14:04):
that we might like better. But again, if this is Thursday, chat,
and we're going plus three and a half with Pittsburgh.
That's mighty tempting, my friend, Like, that's really tempting to
take that number with this defense, and I know your questions.
On offense, I think it's gonna be a light years
better than it was last year. Our negative view of
them is because their schedule is so brutal down towards

(14:24):
the end of the year. Yes, these are this is
the fluffy part, Like these are the games that Pittsburgh
desperately needs to win.

Speaker 2 (14:29):
I know Tomlin knows.

Speaker 3 (14:30):
That, so you know, to me, I have a lot
more questions right now about Atlanta and what they're gonna be, right,
all these new pieces they add to their defense, all
these new systems, Like I kind of like Pittsburgh and.

Speaker 2 (14:43):
A sneaky prop play.

Speaker 3 (14:44):
I'll give out a couple here and there is Credell
Patterson over rushing yards like we even talk about they
have some injuries right now. The Pittsburgh to the running
back room. Kudel Patterson might be like their number two
running back in this game, and that's a great revenge
spot for him.

Speaker 1 (14:56):
So, yes, there's a.

Speaker 2 (14:58):
Lot to love with Pittsburgh.

Speaker 3 (14:59):
I know it's tough to look at people here, but
you're forgetting how great of a defense this Pittsburgh team
does have.

Speaker 1 (15:05):
Look, when TJ. Watt is playing, it's an entirely different team.
It's an entirely different team straight up, it's an entirely
different team against the spread. He's a game wrecker. We've
talked about Miles Garrett as sort of being a guy
that bookmakers have to account for when talking about the
spread and factoring in if he's playing or if he's
not playing, and that could be worth half a point
to a point. TJ. Watt doesn't get the same sort

(15:27):
of respect from bookmakers and downgrading the Steelers from a
point spread point of view, But there is a psychic
effect and there is a real on field effect to
how this team performs in both categories straight up and
against the spread. When he's on and when Mike Tomlin
is coaching. You got to take the Steelers and like
we've kind of talked ourselves into it that they will

(15:48):
be one of these six to seven teams on Thursday.
I want to hear what the sharp calls are about.
But don't forget Mike Tomlin as a dog most profitable
coach as an underdog the past twenty years.

Speaker 2 (15:59):
All Right, hit that home dance.

Speaker 1 (16:01):
I know we got a full slate. We have games
we really love. This may sneak into it. This will
be in the conversation.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
Not at two and a half, right, but three and
a half if we get that extra half point in
our contest, Like, how do we not at least have
a discussion?

Speaker 1 (16:17):
All right, Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Miami Dolphins. Right now,
at bet three sixty five, the Miami Dolphins are three
point favorites. Listen, when I started doing the script yesterday
and I was this beautiful day, It's Labor Day, seventy degrees.
I'm sitting on the patio, sitting next to my son.

(16:38):
He's working on his college essays. We're having like some
real good father son bonding and I'm thinking to myself,
I'm starting to like this game because we don't like
the Dolphins at all. We actually are down on the
Dolphins quite a bit. I think their defense is going
to suffer. I think they're lacking a lot of talent

(17:01):
on that side of the ball. Wattle, Jalen Wattle, and
Tyreek Hill have not practiced consistently during the preseason. We're
not huge fans of two. Uh, we're in on Trevor
Lawrence twenty two to one to lead the league in
passing yardage. Let me give you a stat road underdogs

(17:21):
week one one, thirteen ninety six and eight against the
spread over the past twenty years, so that's basically covering
around sixty percent. Basically teams that did not make the
playoffs that are underdogs, those teams are also sixty percent
against the spread. So I like the Jacks here.

Speaker 3 (17:39):
Yeah, it's unfortunate. Chat, this was three and a half
for three months. Some news came out the Wattle and
tyre Kill were a little banged up, so the number
dipped down to three two and a half of a
couple of books. Now it's settled back into three, even
though those guys have been cleared for practice and they're
fully practicing.

Speaker 2 (17:53):
But how are we not going to like the Jaguars
here right? Half Like the Jaguars.

Speaker 3 (17:57):
They do have a pass rush like we did we
talked about during when we're doing win totals, Like they
have two guys that can get there. You know, Say
what you want about the Jaguars and their weakness in
the middle of the field right their linebacker position. But
they have some good edge rushers. And we're talking about
a Miami team that their offensive line is a weak
point for this team. Like, if you're spending all that
money on your number one, number two receiver and your quarterback,

(18:20):
you're gonna have to go cheap in other areas. And
one of the areas they went cheap is offensive line.
So the issue here, Chad is weather. Like finally some
weather talk, but Miami might have a monsoon for this game.
And we made a rule a year ago and it's
been good to us. We do not ever bet Trevor
Lawrence when it's down pouring rain. The guy he fumbles

(18:40):
like this is a negative thing.

Speaker 2 (18:42):
I know.

Speaker 3 (18:42):
Warren Sharp had an amazing article about it that he
is one of the most turnover heavy quarterbacks when it
comes to fumbling, Like he's just a guy that when
the weather is bad, he does have major turnovers. So
that to me is a like I was gonna make this.
Simon says, I'm not going through just because I don't
want you to bet that now, and then me sending
out you know, talking on Thursday or some of the
tweet out Saturday being like, Okay, the weather is supposed

(19:03):
to be terrible, but you know, to me, if we
have good weather, we're catching three, three and a half
with this Jaguars team, where I have this number at two,
So we're getting either a point of value or a
full point a half of value. I love the Jaguar especially.
We don't even talk about our offensive side, like all
their pieces are their offensively, everyone's fully healthy right now
on the Jaguars team, where the sam can't be said
for Miami. It feels like they're you know, coming in

(19:25):
a little banged up into this game. So I'm shocked
and someone went back up to three. I thought it
for sure it'd stayed down to two and a half.
But I'll take the value. I'll take the three on
the Jaguars team.

Speaker 1 (19:35):
Yeah. Look, don't forget the Jags last year of mid season,
before Trevor Lawrence got hurt, they were leading the division
that was going to be their division, and there there's
a different conversation around the Texans if the Jags win
that division and Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt. So yeah,
we're gonna take the Jags as long as there's not
a monsoon that's you're right. There are very few absolutes

(19:58):
in life, Simon. One, you don't eat sushi that's been
sitting out for more than forty eight hours.

Speaker 2 (20:07):
I'm a little nauseous. Yeah, that's outrageous.

Speaker 1 (20:10):
Two, you don't bet Trevor Lawrence in a month. Soon
there you go. Also another absolute some people might have.
You don't bet on Daniel Jones and the New York
Football Giants. Fortunately, that's not one of our absolutes because
we have the vikings at the Giants, the Giants one

(20:32):
and a half point home underdogs. This is where we
start to ask people to do unpopular things.

Speaker 2 (20:44):
Yeah, probably give me a contest played people.

Speaker 1 (20:46):
Yeah, you were so excited about it. I couldn't even
get the words out of my mouth.

Speaker 2 (20:53):
It's gross.

Speaker 3 (20:54):
I think the only grosser bet on the board might
be the Patriots like taking their points again Cincy, which
being might also do.

Speaker 1 (21:01):
Is this going to be an exec decision of Foxhole?
As Simon says, right now.

Speaker 3 (21:06):
I got Simon hasn't. Simon says, in mind, but I'm
worried you might steal it, so we can come back
to it if I have to. But yeah, this this
my view of this game is simple, Like we think
the Giants are severely undervalued. This is a team that
last year with Tommy de Vido got six wins like
Brian Dabel. Just the Hay's gone too far, too far

(21:27):
for this this man and this team, Like of all
the teams Daniel Jones has had, this to me is
the best team he's had. Right, He's got a legit
wep on the outside, which neighbors. If we're talking about
prop bets, you can get him over fifty five s
fifty five for sivien yards and prop bets. That's amazing.
His over reception now is five and a half. I
think it's plus one thirty. So this is a guy

(21:47):
that in just their Preseson game he played one half,
he had four catches for fifty yards. Like I feel
like they're gonna be forced feed Hi, especially against a
terrible secondary like Minnesota has. So there's a lot to
love there. And then the biggest one that Chad knows
is we're fading. Sam Donald's a row favorite. Like Chad
might hit you with these stats again, but historically we

(22:08):
make good money here betting against Sam Donald is a
road favorite. We always have, we always will and nothing
changes here, like at one point this guy and this
team will be severely undervalued and that we'll come back
on the other side.

Speaker 2 (22:19):
Right now, they're a darling to a lot of people.

Speaker 3 (22:22):
Like if I open up the action app, the money,
the bets all there right now is on Minnesota on
the road. So yeah, I love love the Giants here
in this this spot chat, and it's definitely a pick
where you gotta hold your nose and take it.

Speaker 1 (22:34):
This feels like a foxhole, like the money is on them,
the public is on them. This line, by the way,
Evan notes Evan Abrams are director of Research Brilliant Director
of Research who's a regular part of the show. He
notes in the chat that this line was at one
and a half by the Giants for one and a
half point favorites in May. This line actually recently got

(22:55):
down to pick just about I think it was Viking's
minus a half. It's good going back up to Vikings
minus one and a half. I think there's a couple
of things going on. I think number one, I think
that people have a little bit of anti bias against
the Giants because of what they saw with that team

(23:16):
in Hard Knocks during the offseason, and that played heading
into the preseason. I think they just don't like the
Giants right now. I also think, you know, we have
talked about the Vikings. I have made the Vikings my
bet for worst record in the NFL this year, fifteen
to one. I think after they play the Giants, they
could go on a streak where they don't win another

(23:36):
game until two months into the year. As an underdog
in weeks one and two, dogs of one to six
and a half points covers sixty one percent since twenty sixteen.
That is profitable against the spread every single year the
last eight years. I think we're in the Foxhall a Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (23:59):
Foxhall's do it. Let's climb down into the Foxhole.

Speaker 1 (24:07):
Foxhole. We're in the Foxhole. You know what else? We're in, Simon,
At least I am today. I'm in my Tommy John
underwear that my wife got me as a gift. Long
before Tommy John was our new sponsor or. I was
coming to you live from our Tommy John home studio.

(24:31):
That's right. If you don't know, Tommy John is like
a second skin to me. It is so comfortable. It
is the only underwear I can wear around the house.
With nothing else on, where my wife and kids don't
say Dad, put something on because they're so focused on
how nice the underwear is. This is the Joe Burrow

(24:55):
of underwear. It is cool, it is comfortable, it never
lets you. It's just fantastic. So if you like Simon
and I, if you like this show, you'll love Tommy
and John. Today is the last day to get thirty
percent off at Tommy John's Big Labor Day sale at

(25:20):
Tommy john dot com slash favorites. Save thirty percent at
Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Guys, I am enthusiastically
telling you I use this product. I love this product.
It is fantastic. We also we had a call with
the Tommy John people a couple weeks ago. I loved

(25:42):
the Tommy John people. They were enthusiastic about our enthusiasm.
I want everyone to enjoy themselves in Tommy John. All right,
let's get you like how excited I have about this
Tommy John right, all right, now, we got to talk
about something that I'm a little less excited about. Titan's
at Bears. We've had a couple of lines move just
this morning. That's how you know, we're into the week.

(26:02):
Is the Titans at the Bears was at four and
a half yesterday when I was doing my notes at
four this morning now is at three and a half?
Money coming in on the Titans. For the record, I
know you and I both bet the Titans at plus
four and a half a while ago. I like it
less at three and a half. And if that's the contest,
it falls a little bit out of range for me

(26:23):
because I think we'll find some better numbers. But I
don't hate the Titans here.

Speaker 2 (26:27):
Yeah, and jokes on me.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
I actually bought out of my four and a half
position chat like two weeks ago on that woe because
I just I've come around in Chicago, like I like
this team and I think it's all about matchups with them.
Like if Titans had an incredible run blocking scheam, I'd
be on them because to me, that's going to be
your team's weakness. Like teams I can run the ball,
control the clock. That's going to be the weakness for

(26:49):
the Bears, right Keeping Williams out of a rhythm and
then not attacking your secondary. Your secondary is to me,
the best part of your defense. Like you guys, you
got incredible players at the corner position.

Speaker 2 (27:01):
What does this team want to do?

Speaker 3 (27:03):
Tennessee wants to push the ball downfield and they're historically
what we've seen from will Levis is an inconsistent guy
who you know, he gets flustered if it's third and eight.
Instead of trying to get those eight yards, he's trying
to get fifteen twenty yards. He's gonna fail doing that
against his Bears team. Chat so me, I'll wait now,
like I was gonna bet this at four and a half,
maybe the pros will keep hitting this and I'll get

(27:24):
a three and again I could get sharp calls on this.
And maybe I'm totally reading this wrong or wrong, but
I like the Bears here. Like to me, this isn't
a position to fade them. If you if you wanted
to talk me in to maybe fade them the first half,
that to me would make more sense, right.

Speaker 2 (27:38):
I know, KiB william says he doesn't get nervous. Yeah
you do.

Speaker 3 (27:42):
Everyone gets nervous, even you know guys who say they're
the coolest coolcom dude.

Speaker 2 (27:47):
Ever. It's gonna be different.

Speaker 3 (27:49):
He's gonna be walking on that field and how's he
not gonna feel the waight of the city on him, right,
That's that's gonna be an incredible moment for him.

Speaker 2 (27:55):
It's a dream of his right.

Speaker 3 (27:56):
He's gonna be run out of that tunnel to be
a starting quarterback in this league. So if you want
to talk to me in to taking Tennessee first half,
I get it. But full game, even if this is
three and a half, who goes back up to four?
I'mna be taking Chicago. I just like this matchup for them.
I'm not saying, Chad, they're gonna blow them out here
in Chicago is going to be the most annoying fan
base of Week one, but I could see them rolling

(28:17):
like just defensively, they matchup great offensively as well.

Speaker 2 (28:20):
Not trying to get too far ahead of it, but.

Speaker 3 (28:22):
If this gets down to three and this is two
and a half, in contest, Chad, this this is easily
to to be the favorite we put.

Speaker 4 (28:27):
In Chicago, Chicago at the title in town Chicago, Chicago,
I will show you around.

Speaker 2 (28:40):
I love it.

Speaker 1 (28:41):
You discussed me literally since May. You've been telling me,
don't get too excited about the Bears, don't put your
season one reason Bears had on We've talked about this
game so much we've talked about the Titans. I will
take take issue with one thing you said, we don't

(29:02):
really know what the Titans run blocking scheme is going
to be. I don't take that much away from what
we see in three preseason games. What I will tell
you is that, to me, one of the most interesting,
underrated and potentially important moves in the offseason from a
coaching point of view was Brian Callahan, who had been

(29:24):
the offensive coordinator for the Beankals, not the play caller,
but the offensive coordinator, new head coach for the Tennessee Titans.
One of the first hires he made his father, Bill Callahan.
For those who don't know, Bill Callahan, is one of
the most respected offensive line coaches in the history of
the NFL. Everywhere he has gone as an offensive line coach,

(29:46):
his teams have dominated the run game, most recently in Cleveland.
Remember how often Cleveland was without Nick Chubb and how
often their running game continue to dominate. So I do
think there are going to be ways that they are
going to take advantage of the Bears weakness as a
run defense. I agree with you about their secondary. Their
secondary flies of the ball, and they're great, but there

(30:06):
are going to be opportunities and I don't think they're
going to want to put the ball in We'll and
Will Levis's hands. He's my you know, early in the season,
in this opportunity at home field for against the Bears
in Chicago. So I still like the Times four and
a half. I'm not buying out. I'm not afraid. I'm
not afraid.

Speaker 3 (30:26):
Then you cannot be gloating any your next Tuesday. I
don't want to see any gloating by you next Tuesday, Simon.

Speaker 1 (30:32):
I don't gloat. Yeah, right night, listen. It's my team,
but I'm not on the team. What do I get
if they win? I don't get anything. All right, Another
line that's moving, and it's moved a bit since even yesterday.
Carolina at New Orleans. New Orleans was four and a half.

(30:54):
We've been hyping up the Carolina Panthers four months. You
haven't a non natural allegiance to losers. It's not like you.
We did a preseason futures version of Convince Me our
show on Sunday mornings live at eleven am, Action Network
YouTube and in the Action Network app me You, Chris Raybond,

(31:14):
Sean Crooner. The Panthers were basically in every segment some
combination of the Panthers and betting their overwin total whatever
it is, was constant. I bet the Panthers at four
and a half. I think the Saints are terrible. This
is going to be in our contest. Would you like

(31:35):
the floor to choose it for any other topical themed
named bet today? No.

Speaker 3 (31:44):
I love this and I just want the season to
start so we can get a good number here. Because
this was five and a half. We talked about it
in May, and like you said, there's some books now
showing three and a half. Chat so this this a
pro game. The pros are gonna come in on this one.
There's so many games across the board. Why would anyone
bet this game?

Speaker 2 (32:01):
Right?

Speaker 3 (32:01):
Like to me, that's that's why I love these kind
of games where it's just gonna be basically.

Speaker 2 (32:05):
Pros versus pros.

Speaker 3 (32:06):
There's some pros that are dugging on the Saints and
they think this team could win this division.

Speaker 2 (32:10):
They're better than people realize.

Speaker 3 (32:11):
And those other pros like us who we love Carolina
like we just like you said, we've we've been talking
about Chris has been talking about it. Brandon Anderson's been
talking about like, we like the Panthers this year and
this this starts right here like money money line round Robin.
People knew, you know, three months ago this was gonna
be on money on a round Robert for us.

Speaker 2 (32:29):
We just love this Panthers team.

Speaker 3 (32:31):
So looking at the matchups, you know, there are some
things that Saints could do to attack this team. Like
Chris Olave, if you want to take his prop is
over receiving yards. Totally get it. The Panthers might have
one of the worst secondaries in all of football. But offensively,
I don't know how the Saints are gonna be able
to stop this Panthers team. I know that sounds weird

(32:51):
coming off last year, but oh it.

Speaker 1 (32:53):
Sounds weird as soon as he said that.

Speaker 3 (32:56):
I know the Panthers they're going to be different than
when people are used to seeing last year, Like last
year they try to run a traditional standard offense, or
this year, I think we see a lot more four
wide out, five white out sets. Chat like this is
gonna be a team that's gonna spread it out and
they're really gonna run a West Coast offense. They're gonna
just dink and dunk on you and cut you a
thousand times. And this is a team that's still being
slept on. Like this number. I have it at three,

(33:18):
so now it's getting more closer to what it should be.
But like Chad just said, well, I'm looking at a
book right now, this is still four and a half.
So why would you not go get that four and
a half? You can still get it? Like this is
just this team's not as bad as we perceive. And
I don't think they're gonna get blown out in this
opening week. Mean chat might be sending you a dun
Tats next Tuesday for love and this Panthers team so much,
but it is week one. We're not gonna react to it.

(33:41):
This is a divisional game. It's these things can't get
a little wonky. But I do feel very confident comfortable
taking this number. And mean Chat might have to lock
in our contest today just so we can get a
four and a half on this Panthers number.

Speaker 1 (33:54):
Yeah, we're gonna we will lock in some picks. They
won't be our official picks, but you know these numbers
in the contest favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com go sign up.
It's so much fun. Simon and I can't win the money,
but you still we still want to beat all of you,
and we take a lot of pride and in where
we are finishing in this contest. We will lock in
some games today. I'm just going to say it right now,

(34:16):
Panthers are my executive decision. Wow by boom.

Speaker 3 (34:20):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

Speaker 2 (34:24):
Are you heavy?

Speaker 5 (34:25):
Honors text acute executive decision. Look, we talked about the
heavy on the dogs. Right now we got to start
find it some favorites here disgusting.

Speaker 1 (34:36):
Look, we talked about the trends, the non playoff dogs
in week one trend. We talked about the short dog
in week one, Division underdogs in week one since two
thousand to seventy one percent covering the spread by nearly
five points per game. Okay, all that is great. All

(34:57):
that is great. All of it supports betting the Panthers
even if we weren't higher on the Panthers. And I
do think this might be the best time to get
value on the Panthers because if they do win this week,
then that's gonna change in the week's going forward. And
now this is where we get to bash Dennis Allen
because we hate Dennis Allen.

Speaker 2 (35:15):
Can we get serious now?

Speaker 1 (35:17):
We think Dennis Allen is a horrible, horrible, horrible coach.
We cannot figure out why the Saints hired him, what
he has brought to the table to keep his job okay.
In his coaching career, he's twenty four and forty six
straight up worst among all active head coaches. In five

(35:37):
years and seventy games of coaching, he is twenty two
games below five hundred, the only coaches since two thousand
two realignment to have seventy games or less under their
belt and be twenty two games below five hundred. Dennis Allen,
frich Shermer, Hugh Jaction, Steve Spagnolo, and Gus Bradley as

(35:58):
a favorite, Dennis Allen eight six team and one that
includes one to seven and one as a favorite in
his team's first four games of this season. And then
there's Derek Carr, who, by the way, is ranked one
hundred and sixty fifth of one hundred and sixty six
quarterbacks against the spread, ahead of only Matt Ryan since

(36:20):
two thousand four. Team. This is also a game where
I feel like the stakes are huge for us. We
have been talking about the Panthers so much it has
to be one of our name brand bets. Executive decision,
Carolina Panthers.

Speaker 2 (36:40):
Don't overreact like Chad. Though it's just week one.

Speaker 3 (36:44):
I'm gonna love the Panthers throughout the season. I think
I'm with you. It definitely would hurt and be a
little bit embarrassed. I think, to me, my biggest game,
especially money wise, deciding fact there, it's gonna be that
Giants Vikings game. Like, I have so much investment on
the Vikings just being bad. That's the kind of game
they lose that game win to on my drop to five,
five and a half, four and a half. That's a
huge game in that Vikings number.

Speaker 1 (37:06):
Well, look, we've now we've identified the foxhole, we've identified
the exact decision. We still got. Assignmon says, we will,
by the way, go over your biggest bets on Thursday.
We got right now, no favorites on our list right now.
Pittsburgh plus three, Jags plus three, Giants plus one and
a half, Carolina plus four. Okay, Arizona at Buffalo Buffalo

(37:33):
is a six point favorite. You love the Cardinals. Yeah,
I feel like the Cardinals have basically become the public
darling for everybody who's following football. They love Kyler Murray,
they love Marvin Harrison Junior. They're hopeful this defense is better.
We saw some flash of life last year and a
couple of big games for them. They have all the stats,

(37:56):
all the trends, everything we've talked about fits them. Are
we sucker at this point?

Speaker 3 (38:02):
I'm definitely worried about the being a public dog. But
I've talked to a few bookmakers over the last couple
of weeks, and the Bills are one of the most
teased teams in all football. Like the Bills Cincinnati teaser.
If one of these legs gets broken, that's gonna be
a huge winner for the sports books because that's that's
one of the most teased games right now. Are those
two teams together? People just love the Bengals obviously. You know,
people still have doubts about Arizona. The biggest doubt is

(38:24):
their defense, and it's Josh Allen. Like Josh Allen, he's
just like Mahomes. He's not dead, like you got to
put ten bullets into his head to really kill the guy.
Like he just keeps fighting even when he loses games.
He only loses by a couple of points. Right, he
never gets blown out. That's why you know me and
you have so much respect for Josh. I think us
questioning them here is warranted though, right, Like, they have

(38:46):
a lot of moving pieces, they have a new identity.

Speaker 2 (38:48):
They're gonna be a run for his team.

Speaker 3 (38:50):
Is Josh gonna be more selective with his passing? Is
he still going to have those red zone turnovers that's
kind of plagued his career for so many years now,
It's like we have a lot of those questions with Arizona.

Speaker 2 (39:01):
There's a lot of reasons why we love.

Speaker 3 (39:03):
Them, Chad, Like they're this fun new, up and coming
team with a bunch of young, new talent that you know,
the Bills didn't reload like this like one other time
in all football. Is like a receiver being taken in
the top five with a quarterback that was a number
one pick and what happened Jamar Chase had like a thousand,
three hundred yards and what thirteen touchdowns? So the bar
has been set very high from Marvin Ayerson. If we

(39:25):
if we bet this sad, we're kind of betting on
him to show up, right, Like, that's the only way
they can cover and kind of stay in this game
is if he shows up. So we're really heavy on
the dogs, right. I didn't realize we were so heavy
until we started talking here. I do have some coverage
coming up, don't worry people, But this number was seven
seven and a half. The pros have clear to come
in and some books he's down to five and a half.
So if we're still getting six six and a half

(39:47):
in contest, that's a pretty good number against the Again,
a team the Bills that we have a lot of
question marks.

Speaker 2 (39:52):
It feels like we're always gonna.

Speaker 3 (39:54):
Have opportunity for the backtory or with Kyler Murray, like
it's just the Bills defense isn't what he used to
be as well.

Speaker 2 (39:59):
So you're you're right.

Speaker 3 (40:01):
This is a team that back to back, going from
Carolina to them. These are two teams I really love
and have high hopes for, so it's kind of hard
not to not to take this one.

Speaker 2 (40:10):
I just love this number.

Speaker 1 (40:12):
I'm riding with you on this one. I hear what
everybody is saying. There are a couple teams, especially in
the NFC West. I think you're high on Seattle, You're
high in Arizona. I have not been able to wrap
my head around either of those teams yet. But I'm
with you. I'm with you. You're my ride or die. So

(40:33):
this ends up in the contest. I'm with you one
hundred percent. The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same
way that they started it, with a.

Speaker 2 (40:43):
Die hard commitment. The Bengals battle tenaciously.

Speaker 1 (40:48):
Pats at Cincy, New England at Cincinnati. Look, Cincinnati, We've
been talking about all off season, and we've been so
hopeful for this team. We've been so hopeful that this
is you know, Joe Burrow ends up being Patrick Mahomes kryptonite,
and that we got the Bengals around eighteen to one,
twenty to one to win the Super Bowl before their

(41:08):
odds have shrunk to about thirteen to one. I do
all of a sudden have concerns like Jamar Chase is
just fucking this whole thing up right. The Bengals finally
have Joe Burrow in camp, practicing for the first time
in years after having so many injuries and missing camp.
That leads to a very slow start for this team,
and every win is going to count for them in

(41:29):
a really hard division. And now Jamar Chase is doing
this hold in where you never know if he's going
to show up. We don't know if he's going to practice,
and now we don't even know if he's going to
play this week. So I am a little bummed right now,
and it makes me want to take the Patriots with
a veteran quarterback who we kind of trust because it's

(41:50):
a big number, but I don't want to do it.

Speaker 3 (41:54):
Do it.

Speaker 2 (41:55):
I don't want to do it.

Speaker 3 (41:56):
Yeah, we probably won't force it, and even though we
probably should, because this is this is like you said,
this is nobody. Nobody is betting this Patriots team. I
think when they announced Brissette was gonna be the starter,
or dropped to eight and then quickly went right back
up to nine at most books. So yeah, look looking
at a team that just every week the books are

(42:17):
going to need and we're probably gonna be get a
point or to a value. I'm not gonna be a
sucker like I was last with Carolina. Like I'm not
going to just keep betting these teams because that you know,
my model has this as two three points of value,
where right here I do like I think this number
should be lower closer to seven and a half, it's
all way up to nine. Like that's that's that really
is crazy for week one for a number being this big,

(42:38):
especially where you know the Patriots, as bad as they
might be, we have some questions right.

Speaker 2 (42:44):
About since and that I think you touched on a
little bit.

Speaker 3 (42:46):
We also have questions about their defense right now, like
they're not going to be this, you know, juggering out
of a defense either. So that's a lot of point
for a defense that seems a little suspect to me.
But you're right, Yeah, there's other dogs I like better.
So as we say around two, we'll be passing on
this one for now.

Speaker 1 (43:03):
A dog that we like a lot, Indianapolis Colts at
home plus two and a half hosting the Houston Texans.
I don't know how this one doesn't make it in
I know it, you know it. Division dogs seventy one
percent in week one since twenty fourteen. I said that

(43:24):
when we were talking about the Panthers Division home dogs
twenty five thirteen, the past twenty years, nine and two
since twenty eighteen. Look, we are high on the Colts.
We're high on Anthony Richardson. We think he's the real deal.
We love Shane Steichn. We love the Colts largely because
of what we saw him do with Gardner Minshew in
that team last year. Give me the Colts plus two

(43:47):
and a half. Put it in the contest.

Speaker 2 (43:48):
Let's go, Simon says. When Simon says, do it, we do.

Speaker 1 (43:53):
What Simon says, Simon says.

Speaker 2 (43:57):
I know where you're going to take a chat now.

Speaker 1 (44:00):
Honestly, I knew you wanted this one week scheme four
months so I knew you wanted this one.

Speaker 2 (44:06):
Yeah, it's we respect. We like Houston.

Speaker 3 (44:09):
What was Houston's weakness last year was going on the road.
I don't know if that's changed. What was another one
of their weaknesses playing against the Colts who played them
really tough with Gardon Minshew. Now we have our guy back,
Anthony Richardson, which I love. Alburne's panicking because he had,
you know, a rough go in the preseason. It's just
like it's the preseason. They're trying to work kinks out.
It was his first active game and you know, months

(44:32):
since he had been injured. So I'm excited about this chat.

Speaker 2 (44:35):
I'm hoping it.

Speaker 3 (44:36):
Gets the three like this to me man, every like
I don't know, Sam, I've talked in the last two weeks. Chad,
this is the most most bed side of any side.

Speaker 1 (44:48):
Yeah, it's not getting it. I don't think it's getting
to three because I think the book makers know the
second it gets to three, the wise guys are buying
it back.

Speaker 3 (44:57):
That is again, all books are not great equally. Some
books need the pro money on the other side. You know,
they got to cut down that liability. That's why I'm
hoping they'll you know, I'll get a couple of calls
or a couple of texts, Hey, we're going to three
in the next hour. Do you want some of this action?
Like that's that's literally how I make my living, Chad.
These they reach out. I play the other side and
we kind of help help them weight the books down.
So this is gonna keep going up, you know it is, Chad.

(45:21):
Ninety percent of the sports betters had not placed their
first bet yet. They will come Friday afternoon. Like that's
literally when the rush starts Friday into Sunday at one o'clock.
So you know, I have faith we might get that three.
I'm taking the two and a half right now because
what you just said, we're not the only ones that
know all these trends, and the pros will eventually be impatient,

(45:42):
like they want to lock their money up early in
the week.

Speaker 2 (45:44):
They don't want to be going.

Speaker 3 (45:45):
With the sportsbooks Friday, Saturday or Sunday, like this is
their kind of time to get the money in, so
grabbing it now just in case it does dip down.
But we love this game so much, Like I just
not only do I love the matchups, I just love
the idea of no one's in this cold steam of chance,
right everyone's kind of them out where. It's just they're
not that far away from Houston. Like Great talked about

(46:06):
if Anthony Richardson does take that year two step. This
kid has all the tools, like he is so incredibly gifted.
This year with him is reps, Like the kid didn't
have enough reps in college. You got her last year,
Like just not enough reps. So understands people's hesitation here,
But I'm hoping they just play the numbers and the
trends where you're just giving out here. It's like these

(46:27):
first two weeks, I'm very heavy on trends Week one
and two, Like there's plenty of trends you'll see next week.
That are moneymakers, like we bet them long term and
we will make money off it. Now, you know, I
had a couple of reach out there, like, well, you
told us to blindly bet this divisional home dog in
this spot, and I did it last year with the
Giants and we lost forty and nothing to the Cowboys. Guys,
there's no one hundred percent hit right here. Okay, there's

(46:49):
always going to be El's like, that's just how it is.
That's that's kind of why we call it gambling. Chad
just told you it's seventy percent, So okay, you have
a twenty nine percent chance of this not hitting.

Speaker 2 (47:00):
Take those odds and run with it.

Speaker 3 (47:01):
It's like, this is such a good number, especially now
that we're getting closer to that three and we already
talked about I love two and a half because two
and a half is such a key number. Now we
see it time and time again. The extra point is
no guaranteed anymore. So Yeah, Simon says, two and a
half give me the Colts.

Speaker 1 (47:16):
Yeah. Look, people need to remember we look at these trends,
and trends are huge. In the first two weeks of
the year. You need to start to see what these
teams are like.

Speaker 2 (47:22):
You got it, because no one knows what these teams
are like. Right.

Speaker 1 (47:24):
But also to your point, some of these trends fifty four,
fifty eight, sixty, it still means four out of ten times,
four and a half out of ten times.

Speaker 2 (47:35):
Yeah, that's the dream.

Speaker 1 (47:37):
You're still losing. But you got to bet at all
ten times in order to take advantage of that. That's why,
that's why you do it. So you just said the
colts were Simon says, I just want to I really
want to emphasize this right now. The three picks that
we've said we love that will most certainly end up
in the contest. And we haven't gotten to wear big

(47:58):
balls yet, but we will on Thursday.

Speaker 2 (48:01):
Don't worry, I got favorites coming chat, don't you.

Speaker 1 (48:03):
Wis plus two and a half. Uh, Panthers plus four
is the exec decision the New York Giants plus one
and a half. So reminder, if you think no more,
we're we're telegraphing what we're putting in our context. This
is your chance to prove it that you know more

(48:23):
than we do. We love it. The Favorites Contest The
Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them
Contest presented by bet three six five Minutes Back. It's
free to play five picks against the spread every week.
One hundred and k in cash prizes up for grabs,
including the first place prize of forty thousand dollars. Sign
Up Favorites Dot Actionnetwork dot Com. Reminder, we know people

(48:47):
had a problem signing up in the first week we
were promoting it. Please go try to sign up again.
We apologize. Top ten finishers get paid every single week.
The first place finisher gets at that sign up at
Favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com Denver at Seattle.

Speaker 2 (49:08):
On at Denver, Broncoast.

Speaker 1 (49:11):
Seattle minus six. I don't have a feel for this game.
You've liked both teams. I don't need to get ahead
of the market on both teams. I feel like you're
gonna tell me take the Seahawks.

Speaker 3 (49:22):
Yeah, I'm not gonna try. I'm trying not to overthink
this one, Chad. I'm gonna take Seahawks here. I know I,
me and you are both down on them just because
their offensive line is what thirtyth thirty first ranked in
the league. But the hope is here when you go
against a defense as bad as Denver, that don't matter,
right Denver. I think they are great as a twenty
ninth defense head into the season and across the board offensively, Sure,

(49:46):
we're excited for bow This is a really tough spot
to be your first start against the twelfth man and
a d the new head coach is what we think,
one of the best defensive minds in all football. So
you know, Mike McDonald comes in here and it's it's
gonna take a year. From what I've read and what
I've heard from people that really have to know, it's
gonna take a year for the Seattle defense to really

(50:07):
figure out his defensive scheme.

Speaker 2 (50:09):
Apparently it is tough, but you know they're gonna be prepared,
and especially for a team like this where you know
Sean Payne's not trying to reinvent the wheel. His offense
is incredibly simple.

Speaker 3 (50:20):
For bone Nicks, it's all about how accurate and all
the time can Bonicks be. I think with all the
disguise and the Seahawks will throw it him and all
the different looks.

Speaker 2 (50:27):
They'll be able to rattle this kid.

Speaker 3 (50:29):
And you know that's why this number is so Hi,
I've got a couple people ask about this game, because
this is another game that's really heavily teased. I said,
I don't mind teasing the Seattle down, like I really
honestly don't, just because I like this spot for this team,
against this rookie quarterback on the road, and Evan gave
us an amazing stat. This is why I'm not going
to make this one of our five. The books have

(50:49):
kind of built it into it, right. I think his
stat was basically against the spread, rookie quarterbacks making their
first roun on the road, They're twelve to thirteen against
the spread. Where they struggle is on the money line.
I just do not win in these spots. So this
this to meet you out. Instead of being a contest game,
this is a fun teaser game, Like this is a
game I'm definitely gonna throw on with teasers. We've already
given you a bunch of great dogs with key numbers.

(51:11):
You can tease the Panthers one if it's four and
a half, you tease at six points. That's ten and
a half. Like, that's a great teaser numbers. So same
goes with Seattle here. I just I can't see Seattle
losing this home opener at home against a rookie quarterback.

Speaker 1 (51:25):
The Raiders at the Chargers. The Chargers are minus three.
This is one that's interesting to me. You love the Raiders, Rose,
you love the Raiders. The pros love the Raiders. Yeah,
right now, seventy percent of the money is on the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (51:41):
Damn.

Speaker 1 (51:41):
Friends love the Raiders. The division dogs, the short dogs,
the non playoff teams, fading small favorites, all of it
loves the Raiders. I'm not a Raiders believer like you are.
In fact, I probably have more faith than Jim Harbaugh. Yeah,
I don't think this makes our final five.

Speaker 3 (51:58):
No, because of three and a half gone, and I
did look in our contests. I believe it was two
and a half, and I did love the three and
a half. But you're right, like, we have so many
other dogs right now. I honestly like them better than
this one.

Speaker 2 (52:09):
But this is the start.

Speaker 3 (52:11):
Like, maybe I can convince you to throw in our
money line around Robin, because this, to me is like,
not that this dictates these two team seasons, but it
feels like it's going to dictate a lot of people's perceptions.
And this is another game where it's like, the reason
I want to put the Raiders in this one because
this wouldn't be the worst thing the Raiders did lose
this one, because I would get amazing value on them
next week, which is like kind of where I want
to take them anyway, because this is a tough spot

(52:33):
right on the road here making this start, even though
there should be more Raider fans right this is kind
of a homecoming from going back to LA But like
you just said, it's it's horrible, like this is going
to be a totally new identity. We have no idea
what this Chargers team is about to look like. And
that's the scary thing is we're truly betting the unknown
trying to.

Speaker 2 (52:52):
Go against it here, Chad. So I'm with you on it.
It's like I'm happy waiting see especially the fact.

Speaker 3 (52:57):
That you know it was three and a half for
three months and now it's gone as at three and
I just don't think it's gona get back to three
and a half.

Speaker 2 (53:03):
So I'm with you. I'll pass on this one.

Speaker 1 (53:06):
Why would we put the Raiders in the contest when
we can put the Giants or the Panthers, or the
Cardinals or the Colts or you know, the Jaguars or
the Steelers or anybody else like that. So why risk
it with the Raiders. We have so many sure things.
Dallas at Cleveland Cleveland minus two and a half. In

(53:28):
my heart, I want to bet the Browns as a
short home favorite. The Browns defense was the most dominant
home defense in NFL history. The Cowboys offense one of
the most prolific in a generation. I think the Browns
QB a suspect. I think the Cowboys coaches suspect. I
think we have a full slate to choose from. I

(53:50):
feel like all the trends back Dallas, but I think
the roster might back in the situation, might back the Browns.
Kind of a pass for me.

Speaker 2 (54:00):
I love Dallas here, I love Dallas.

Speaker 3 (54:03):
Kidding me, I was hoping he was going to get
the three, but I don't think it's gonna get there.

Speaker 2 (54:09):
Yeah, it's just all right.

Speaker 3 (54:11):
It was functioning on Dallas the whole offseason, like their
owner as a joke, Dak Prescott. The deal didn't get
worked out. This dude's playing on a one year deal.
I get all the hate and everything like that, but
we're talking just on field. Deshaun Watson's played what ten
games and four years? Chat, I mean, what are we
talking about? I mean, I don't even how many games

(54:31):
he's played. This guy he has not played at all.
And when you see footage of him, he's just not
throwing it right. Like even when they're practicing against air,
which all in rhythm throws, it's supposed to be very simple,
his throws are still ugly, still hitting guys in the feet,
still throwing too high. It's like I've been watching film
with him for a month now, just because his injuries
to his arm is a big deal, Like that's a

(54:54):
big deal and it's their throwing shoulder. So you know,
I'm with you, Chad, Like if I can't get you
there on Dallas, I totally get it, just because again
we are so dog heavy, but Dallas is getting too
much hate. Like Brown's defense at home last year was incredible?
Does that translate back to back seasons? That was kind

(55:16):
of an anomaly, Like that was just pure randomness that
does stuff doesn't really carry weight season this season, especially
when you look at the quarterbacks they face, Like this
is a great spot for Dak because we said all
the time Dak regular season. We love him like Dak
in regular season is good to us. He covers for us,
especially at home against bad teams. He covers big even
on the road in these kind of spots. He's not

(55:38):
that terrible, especially as a dog. So maybe I'll hit
up Evan trying to get some ATS numbers to back
it up. But I feel like we bet him usually
in this spot, Dek like the hate's gone too far, Like.

Speaker 2 (55:49):
This should be what it was.

Speaker 3 (55:50):
This was a pick and when CD held out, I
was like, okay, move it up another point and a half,
two and a half points, Like and Brown's Offecha just
said they lost their savior on the offensive line. Their
best offensive line coach is now in Tennessee. They have
injuries all across their offensive line. They're literally placing guys
in and out there.

Speaker 2 (56:11):
So man, there's.

Speaker 3 (56:15):
A lot of questions, a lot of questions about this
Browns team. That's why I'm I'm willing to take this
two and a half. I just think the hate is
carried over from the summer. It's the futures market, all
this stuff that's all done with, Like we're talking just
this season. I would take Dak here maybe late in
the season. I would not take that in this situation,
but right here, I think this is a good number

(56:38):
for this Dallas team.

Speaker 1 (56:39):
All right, well, look, we got to put five in
and right now we only got three games that we
really freaking hate, so we might as well add the
Cowboys to the list. I don't have a strong opinion
on it. I kind of want to pass, but I
can be convinced based on what you're saying and your
decided expertise. Here, Washington at Tampa Bay Temp Bay Buccaneers

(57:01):
are three and a half point favorites in this game.
I know there are trends about rookie quarterbacks going on
the road, playing in their first game. It's not good,
but so many other trends back the Commanders in this spot.
The short road underdog, the underdog who was not in

(57:24):
the playoffs, that is playing on the road as an underdog.
I've mentioned all these already, I think the most important thing,
and for people who are new to the show, we
talk a lot about the Luck Rankings, which is this
formula put together by the Action Analytics team. Sean Kerner,
Nick Giffen, Billy Ward and Nick Giffin has been on

(57:46):
the show talking about this. I'm not going to go
into detail on the formula. You should go to actionnetwork
dot com. Look for luck Rankings type type Action Network
Luck Rankings in your search bar. It'll come up for
twenty twenty four. All you need to know is that
the Bucks were one of the luckiest teams in the
NFL last year. The Commanders were one of the most
unlucky about in the bottom ten of unlucky situations. The

(58:13):
delta for this game will be one of the bigger
ones we see in week one. That alone makes me
want to bet on the Commanders the Bucks. Look, we
are fading the Bucks this year. We are taking there
under I know Nick Giffin, he likes them to finish
last in the NFC South. If you can find that that,
this is gonna have to be on the table taking

(58:34):
the Commanders.

Speaker 3 (58:36):
It's fair like it's the same thing with the Miami
Jackson gal They might be gained by those same storms
And it's like, what am I doing here? Like that's
why you know the Jags game. I have a better
feel for this one. I feel like a lot of
stuff you said, I don't really have a feel for
it where it's just like this this of offense for Washington.

Speaker 2 (58:54):
I don't know what they're about to be.

Speaker 3 (58:55):
Is this really going to be just the Terry McLaurin show,
And it's just Jeane Daniel was force feeding him. And
I'm happy to sit this one out, like I've I've id,
I did bet this one.

Speaker 2 (59:07):
I did take Washington.

Speaker 3 (59:08):
I think there were plus four, but I really never
thought this would ever be one of our five. It's
just like there's some other games I like and I
have a feel for. With this one, I really feel
like it's a ton of unknown and Chad just nailed.
It's like I'm so negative and down the bucks. I
might be totally missing on them right now. It's just
everything I see it's not good, Like I already didn't
like them from my model, and then I have Nick

(59:30):
Giffen coming in and give me all that luck stuff
where it's like it's one of the luckiest teams in
all football last year.

Speaker 2 (59:34):
That has to regress.

Speaker 3 (59:35):
So Chad's right, like I probably would still be on Washington.
It's just they're down to plus three to a lot
of books. Now, that's that's tough. Tough to take that
number there, So I'll pass on her for now.

Speaker 1 (59:47):
All right, two more games left. The Marquee matchups center
a football miner football Rams are visiting the Lions, a
playoff rematch. Lions or minus three and a half, Simon,
I'm going to see you up again. I hope you
get this one right. Who is the most profitable quarterback

(01:00:08):
against the spread in Week one over the past twenty years?

Speaker 2 (01:00:13):
Well, I thought it was Sean McVeigh. I'm kidding. It's
Jared Goff.

Speaker 1 (01:00:17):
Jared Goff seven and oh against the spread in his opener,
four and oh straight up against the spread with the Rams,
one and two straight out, three and zero against the
spread with the Lions. Who is the most profitable coach
against the spread the past five years?

Speaker 2 (01:00:37):
I mean, is it not Jim Harball?

Speaker 1 (01:00:39):
Dude? It's Dan Campbell. I already gave you the answer.

Speaker 2 (01:00:44):
It doesn't matter if you have one ass cheek and
three toes, I will beat your wraps numbers.

Speaker 1 (01:00:49):
Look, we love the Rams. We love Matthew Stafford, we
love Sean McVeigh. I really want to bet the Lions.

Speaker 2 (01:00:57):
Here, me too, I flish.

Speaker 3 (01:01:00):
I'm so sorry to everyone listening, our diehard fans. They
probably bet the Rams with me months ago.

Speaker 2 (01:01:06):
I flipped.

Speaker 3 (01:01:08):
I do love the Rams. I have questions about their
offensive line. They have injuries, they're trying to fix fix
it here head into Week one, and I think Detroit
is a pretty damn good d line. Then on top
of that, they have they have a new kind of
a new system here on defense, Like it's gonna be
a different look for this Rams team defensively, and I
think there couldn't be in a worse spot trying to
get fixed against this Detroit team.

Speaker 2 (01:01:29):
So I was I.

Speaker 3 (01:01:32):
Wanted to be on the Rams here, and I have
flipped on Detroit. They're one of my favorite favorite picks.

Speaker 2 (01:01:37):
Obviously.

Speaker 3 (01:01:38):
Our dream scenario chat is the public to come in
or some pros to come in on the Rams and
we can get this at three. That's why I wouldn't
make the Simon says or anything like that. But if
we come back on Thursday and this is a three,
I'm tempted to put it in, brother like, even at
three and a half. I don't hate putting in our
contest as one of our favorites. So I definitely like
this Detroit team in the spot.

Speaker 1 (01:01:58):
I love when you and I are mind melding so
early in this week, you know. Look, it's like, and
we went through this in the conference division previews. I've
been wanting to find reasons to fade the Rams all
off season because yeah, well it's just like it felt
like there was too much hype and that the variance

(01:02:23):
on their success is so wide because of the way
Dan Campbell coaches. And we saw that in the NFC
title game, right Like, they're up by double digits in
the first half and they lose the game because Dan
Campbell always takes the riskier position as a coach, always

(01:02:48):
makes the riskier decision, even if analytically he's making the
right call. When those don't pan out, the consequence is massive,
and so I feel that eventually catches up with you.
And so I wanted to and I felt like there
was just too much hype, too much glow for the Lions.
But the problem is it's like a good stock. Their

(01:03:09):
fundamentals are so sound, Their offensive line is so good
Aiden Hutchinson, and that defensive line is so good. Just
at the line of scrimmage, they are as good as anybody,
if not better than anybody, As two units in the NFL.
I want to bet them at home. I want to
bet Jared Goff, I want to bet on the fundamentals.

(01:03:29):
Like I just like this team. I feel like it's
going to be the one favorite that we end up
putting into the contest. We still haven't settled on a
big balls and we've already used like the Giants, the Panthers,
the Colts as our other bets, so we still have
to find the big balls. This could be it on Thursday.
But that's interesting. I'm glad we both aligned on the Lions.

(01:03:58):
All right. Look, Jets at Niners. This moving around too.
A lot of lines moving this morning, and this one
is actually moving in an opposite direction than you and
I would think it was three and a half? Was
it five and a half in the off season? Yeah,
got that all the way down yesterday to three and
a half some buyback today, I think because of Trent

(01:04:18):
Williams is what I would imagine. Go ahead, give your take.
I know we both agree on this game, so you
sort of share with the listeners where your head is at.

Speaker 3 (01:04:27):
Yeah, and I think listeners already know all my respect
for Trent Williams and how big of a deal is
the book show it too. They moved the lineup by
a point like this, this guy is the best left
tackle in football.

Speaker 2 (01:04:38):
Their line is bad without them. We already talked about it.
It's like, you know, it doesn't matter all the miracles.

Speaker 3 (01:04:43):
You can run. You can run a run blocking scheme,
you get an evention. You guys are be able to
go and.

Speaker 2 (01:04:47):
Pass pro and make blocks.

Speaker 3 (01:04:48):
And if you're losing him against team's number one DNS,
that would have been disastrous. So I'm excited for them
to getting the deal done. You know you that was
I'm happy got him too, because that's a huge dealt
to this team at the end of today.

Speaker 2 (01:05:02):
I mean you talked about Trium Williams.

Speaker 3 (01:05:03):
Was the guy, like they had to get the deal done.
They needed him in the building. Is a little too late,
like this is this.

Speaker 2 (01:05:10):
Is This game is in what five days? Six days?
So I know they claimed us me in practice.

Speaker 3 (01:05:16):
I've been checking social media since we've been here because
I want to see him if he's actually out there
in pads while we're doing this show.

Speaker 2 (01:05:21):
But I haven't seen yet. But that's a huge deal,
Like what has he been up to?

Speaker 3 (01:05:26):
Like this, this guy who is thirty six just missed
all these important reps and you go, well, he's a veteran,
he probably would't have been doing that many reps anyway,
he'd been doing mental reps. That is a big deal
him not being there like Nick Bosa, who you both respect,
he said, NFL right till middle of the season. We've
heard this from other guys who've sat out camp and
then come back. It's just different when you've missed all

(01:05:48):
those reps. So for this game, I think I still
like the Jets. Like I could easily bottom my position
if I wanted to go on the forty nine ers
at this point, but like, you know, the Jets in
this spot obviously, you know I wanted originally, I wanted
to be on the forty nine ers. I'm not gonna
lie because I just thought the Jets love had gone

(01:06:09):
too far and I was like, this is gonna be
such a nice spot to buy back going on this team.
I think Evan gave us that amazing stat about the
Super Bowl hangover. Teams just historically struggle in this week
one team from the previous year, just because the expectations
are that team from that Super Bowl run last year.
This ain't that team, Like, even if they have a
lot of the same guys, back. It's so different, especially

(01:06:30):
you know, starting a new season. They're looking at They're
at the bottom of the mount route, right, I'll looking
at the very top. It's like it's totally different mentalities.
So I like the Jets like them at four and
a half. Will this be one of our five?

Speaker 2 (01:06:43):
Maybe? I don't know if I'm like.

Speaker 3 (01:06:44):
Dak and this just because of Aaron Rodgers factor, right,
I think me you are at the same page with
Aaron Rodgers's like I kind of want to wait and
see it, Like I wouldn't mind waiting to see it,
just because the Aaron Rodgers we all know and love.
I mean, we really haven't seen in three years. Like
the last time we saw him play for a season,
he was bad, and you know.

Speaker 2 (01:07:04):
Last year we only got four plays.

Speaker 3 (01:07:07):
Everything I've seen in camp, he looks smooth and looks
like the old Rodgers, Like he looks ready. I don't
know if I want to make it on my five
because of that chat. So I don't know where you're
at with that right now, but that would be my
biggest hesitation is just Aaron Rodgers against this defense because
I feel like we know we're gonna get for the
forty nine ers, like they're a Minimum'm gonna put up
twenty twenty one points Ken Aaron Rodgers gets that twenty

(01:07:28):
four points that that, to me is the question.

Speaker 1 (01:07:31):
So I agree with everything you've said. I think that
if there is an advantage for the Jets, it's because
Trent Williams is signing so late in camp. I don't
forget Brendon I you signing so late in camp too.
I do think that matters. And look that the Niners
will get it right. We are massive, Kyle Shannon.

Speaker 2 (01:07:50):
They're probably gonna be my number one power rated team
in four weeks. But I think it's I think it's
gonna take it, unbelie.

Speaker 1 (01:07:55):
I think we get a little bit of value for
a couple of weeks, and I think it's it's yeah,
I do think for I think the Jets end up
making it. They've got they've got some big balls potential,
and for the second year in a row, we're going
to have to go into money at football leading the
freaking Jets.

Speaker 2 (01:08:15):
It's like keep.

Speaker 3 (01:08:16):
Going up though, Like rapport we just got from Teita,
Rapport just reported Trent's in practice practice today. So if
you want to wait, people, yeah, let's wait see if
it goes up to five. If I've already grabbed the
four and a half, so I'm already invested here in
the Jets. If you want to wait and see if
it keeps going up, let it, because this is going
to be another heavily beat team.

Speaker 2 (01:08:32):
Like people have the same questions we do.

Speaker 3 (01:08:34):
I mean, it's Aaron Rodgers on the road in week
one after he's not looked himself in a long time,
so easily this number could keep going up.

Speaker 1 (01:08:41):
By the way, from Evan, that's stat that you just
mentioned super Bowl hangover the loser of the Super Bowl
since two thousand in Week one the following season ten
and fourteen straight up five and nineteen against the.

Speaker 2 (01:08:54):
Spread, five and nineteen, five.

Speaker 1 (01:08:56):
And nineteen four and nine against the spread when they
are favored by over the field goal. So the Niners.
It's not a great trend for the Niners, which is
why I feel a little bit take Aaron Rodgers and
the Jets and our history with the Jets and meeting
the Jets last year to save our opening week in isolation,

(01:09:16):
this is a spot where you back the Jets.

Speaker 3 (01:09:19):
I love that still on your mind, that you're still
thinking about that last Monday was Zach Wilson.

Speaker 1 (01:09:23):
Dude, that's hilarious. I can remember having lunch with a
buddy who worked at WWE, and he was leaving Stamford
to go back to LA and he and I had
lunch that Monday, and I had to drive down to Stamford,
which is about ninety minutes from my house, and I'm

(01:09:45):
all I'm thinking about is that we went one in
three in the opening week and I'm feeling sick to
my stomach, even though Action had had its greatest opening
weekend for NFL across every platform ever. And then I
got a drive back and I'm listening to Evan and
Joe Gallant on the wrap up pod for Monday, and
I'm trying to get my head in the game. And

(01:10:05):
all I'm thinking is we need the Jets. And then
Aaron Rodgers go down and like I wanted to crawl
into a hole, but you know what, it all worked out.

Speaker 2 (01:10:14):
You trust trust the numbers, brother.

Speaker 1 (01:10:16):
Trust the numbers. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is
presented by BED three sixty five. Bet three sixty five
doesn't do ordinary That's why you get more boosts with
them than with anyone else. Every day they part up
the odds one hundreds of bets to give you a
chance to win more. Bet three six five boost specific
markets your winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there.
Keep an eye for their biggest and best odds with
the incredible super Booz. Check out the Boost and see

(01:10:39):
why it's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must
be twenty one or older in presenton, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply once again. Make sure we're talking a lot

(01:11:01):
about the contest. Because we have so much fun playing it,
we want you to play with us. You can compete
against us, win cash, cash money just for getting in
the game. You gotta sign up for free get in
the game sign up at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.
Our issues are solved. We have confirmation. Sign up now.
Don't miss Week one kickoff. Simon and I return with

(01:11:24):
our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network
YouTube page Thursday, eleven am Eastern to cover our final
NFL Week one best bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe, leave us
five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift,
so next time, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

(01:11:54):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help us available twenty four to seven at one time.
And Adred Gambler

All Episodes

The Favorites - NFL Week 1 Betting Preview

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Colin Cowherd

Jason McIntyre

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}The Favorites - NFL Week 1 Betting Preview