September 5, 2024 • 53 mins
A new NFL season kicks off tonight in Kansas City! To celebrate, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their best bets across the NFL Week 1 slate.
Together they narrow down their picks for their free Favorites Podcast $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest presented by bet365, which is still open for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com and awarding huge cash prizes all season long!
We also get their famous Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, a boosted moneyline underdog parlay, a long discussion on the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, and so much more. #Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the Podcast, presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
We are live from our.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Midtown Manhattan studios, the Tommy John Studio at Action Network HQ.
I'm joined as always by my cos my companion, my
campadre might b FF, Simon Hunter l Osimon.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
We made a brother, we made it.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
We get to see each other face to face.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Last night, you and I went to dinner together and
we talked about all the things that bff's talk about
when they're at dinner together. Most importantly, are we overinvested
in the Carolina Panthers?
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Have we made a mistake on the Giants?
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Can you convince me to actually bet the Bears instead
of the Titans.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
We are going to get to all of it.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Today is our NFL Week one Best Bets episode. Simon
or nine narrowed down our five picks and the Favorites
podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest
presented by BET three six five. Don't forget you can
still sign up at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. On
(01:29):
today's show, as we will do every Thursday this season.
We'll do sharp calls, our big balls, bet of the week,
the underdog, moneyline, parlay Survivor, pool picks, Simon's biggest bets.
Our director of Research, Evan Abrams, will join us, and
(01:50):
so much more. But first, as a reminder, the Favorites
Podcast is presented by Bet three six five and this
just in new Bet three sixty five customers now get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Sign up using promo code.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Favorites, deposit ten dollars and place a bet for five
dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
And more.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty
five must be twenty one. We're older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms conditioning
restrictions apply once again. If you want to sign up
(02:42):
for the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
Them contest, free to play five picks every single week
season long. If you want to get in before week one,
now is the time to do it.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
You will have.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
Chances to get in over the next couple of weeks
because we drop a couple of scores, but now is
the time to get in if you want to have
the full slate for the next eighteen weeks. That's all
the way into the new year.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Folks.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Don't get left behind. It's totally free to play. Like
I said, just five picks against it spread every single week.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Over one hundred grand in cash prizes up for grabs.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
You will be competing against me and Simon the picks
that we talk about on this show. What we narrow
it down to that is what will end up in
the contest. First place in this contest takes home forty
grand every single week. The first place finisher, the person
who has the best record during the week, gets one
thousand dollars. If they nail the tiebreaker exactly, that one
thousand grows to two thousand. We did hear people have
(03:41):
problems signing for the contest. We've gotten through that. Go
sign up now. Favorites dot actionnetwork, dot com. All right,
as always, we like to hear how the wise guys
are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we
are as a podcast, Simon. The lines move based on
our conversations. It happen on Tuesday. We've seen it happen
(04:01):
over the last forty eight hours. The pros also feel
compelled the our own little sort of Roman senate, telling
us constantly what they think of our opinions. All right, Simon,
let's go to some sharp calls. Just give me the
highlights here. What games have the guy said, we're right
and we're wrong. Before we dive in a little bit deeper.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody said,
let's start with they hated Chad, because that's that's really
what people want to know. What the what are the
pros hate that we picked off the top? They hate
our lions pick they do. Yeah, they think we're walking
(04:47):
into it, and I disagree. I think this sets up
nice for this Detroit team at home in the scenario.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
I think I love that they hate it because we're
going to come back around and it.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Raises the stakes.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
Yeah, a little bit on this bet for later in Well,
I just said to them it's brutal because it's the
only favorite. Mean you agreed on really, so you are okay?
That was one off the top. The number two is
a game you like. I know our guy Chris Raybaund likes.
They all like Tennessee. They keep throwing that stat in
my face, right, number one pick? Overall? What are they owe?
Fourteen and one in the last fifteen starts against the spread.
(05:20):
We'll get into that game because they got a lot
of opinions on the Chicago game, but I haven't budget
on that. I still love Chicago, so it's not shocking
to here. They love the Titans so much. The Detroit
one shocked me more the fact they love the Rams
so much, but this one didn't. For the last one
that they think we got wrong, Chad, I can't believe
it. It's the Giants they like. They like the Vikings. So
(05:43):
that's another one we're going to dive into. I just
don't think people understand that this Giants team isn't as
bad as they perceive. And that's what I'm trying to
get into people's heads here. That's why I try to
get to their heads. Man, I thought that was gonna
be the pros verse shows. I thought the public would
be on the Vikings, the pros would be on the Giants.
It's honestly split right in the middle of I've talked
(06:03):
to pros you like our side, and pros you really
hate that bet we have made. So that's off the
top for the ones they love. I think a couple
of the ones we knew they were gonna love, right,
the Panthers, that's a pros game. We knew the pros
would love that. Unfortunately, it sounds like it's a little
bit of the public game as well. The public has
come around on this Panthers team. It is, but again
(06:24):
I think it's because of the number. Right. We've seen
the four and a half now drop down to four
three and a half in a couple of books. So
to me, again that makes sense. The pros like the number.
I don't think we played the same as that three
and a half as we would at four and a half,
So to me, that's the big difference there. And the
last one is the Jets like the pros love the
Jets like the forty nine ers. They've had so much turmoil,
(06:45):
it makes sense why the public would be on the
Jets as well. And then you throw into the trends
all the numbers you want to be on the Jets
of four and a half. Even though even I get
the fear because there's been a lot of buyback on
the forty nine ers, I think it's just because it's
the money night game, right guys, we talk all the time.
People are gonna have their parlays, all their teasers tied
(07:05):
to this forty Niners team. So I'm not too shocked
the number's gone up. It's it's holding now four and
a half. Now, if me and you come into our
show Sunday night and then numbers up to six, I'm
gonna be scared because that's some big professional money coming
in on the fortnes But right now, to me, it's
business as usual. So as far as you guys for
sharp calls, we got a couple of picks they hate
(07:25):
chat and a couple of picks they love.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Well, it's good because it also allows us to dig
in a little bit deeper on some of these games.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
The Giants game in particular the Lions game.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
I know we talked about what are big balls bet
of the week presented by time of John by the way,
but what it might be before the show.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Yeah, I think we need to call an audible. I'm
gonna call the audible based on the sharp calls.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Okay, when we get to it, all right, So listen,
Simon and I discussed on Tuesday that you know, early
end of the season, we lean into these trends a
bit more than normal because we don't know a ton
about these teams yet, Like quarterbacks aren't playing a lot
during the regulars during the preseason, so it's hard to
judge the real tendencies of these teams at this point.
(08:11):
So we can't play spots, we can't take advantage of
a lot of mispricing.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
All of that is just harder in weeks one and
week two. So there are a couple trends.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
There's about three trends that I just want to highlight
right now if I refer back to them during the
show when I say this team follows the trends, it's
these trends just so I don't have to repeat them
every single time. Number one, again, all from the brilliant
mind of our director of research, Evan Abrams. Underdogs between
one and five and a half points in Week one
(08:41):
cover at a sixty four percent clip since twenty eighteen
to sample size of nearly one hundred and fifty games.
By the way, they're also fifty eight percent over the
past decade. Really good trend for underdogs in that one
to five and a half. Ranch favorites of one to
three and a half points cover only forty three of
the time in September based off of sample size and
(09:04):
more than five hundred and fifty games. Road dogs who
missed the playoffs the year before fifty eight percent against
the spread the past twenty years. A lot of games
that fit into all these trends, plus some divisional stuff
that we're going to talk about. Look, the first game
that is sort of on the edge of our top five,
(09:26):
Pittsburgh in Atlanta. Atlanta is a three point favorite. We've
been holding out hoping to get three and a half.
It's one of the few games that hasn't moved a
lot of games have. The juice is on the minus
three at minus one twenty, so it could go to
three and a half. They're asking us to pay the
price to get the three. I just think it's like,
the more I think about this game, so hard not
to back the Steelers here right It is like one
(09:50):
of those bets that did not get a lot of
my attention in the last until the past forty eight hours.
I'd even make it a candidate for underdog parlay, which
we're gonna get to.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Maybe it won't get there, but look the stats I
ticked off at the top of the show. Irrelevant.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
Mike Tomlin the best underdog coach against the spread the
past twenty years.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
all the time, Like, that's what the hell we paid
to do?
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Is gonna make our final five? Do we like Pittsburgh
right now?
Speaker 3 (10:15):
We like Pittsburgh. You said, there's a lot of books
out there that have this at three and a half.
The book we're working with as it at three. Are
we really going to force it in at a two
and a half at a bad number when there's three
and a halfs out there?
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Good point?
Speaker 3 (10:25):
No, Like that's just something we never do. So we
like this number. This is another game though the pros
are split on. I think there's some professionals that really
love this Atlanta team. They got them pegged as eleven
twelve win team, a top seed in the NFC, and this,
to them is a game that kind of sets that
benchmark because Alanta does have some tough games here early
in the slate. So looking at this matchup, I think
(10:47):
me and Chat said what we need to say about
this one, where it's like we like the coaching matchup
better for Pittsburgh. We like Pittsburgh's defense much more than
we trust Atlanta's offense, especially again, Kirk Cousins first game
after coming off this injury. You know, Achilles is a
big deal, especially if someone that's putting all their power
and their weight onto that back keel every time they
push off. Every throw he makes is on that back heel.
(11:09):
So my hesitation for Atlanta is valid. The numbers though,
that's what we're playing here. Like three and a half.
I love Pittsburgh. If if it's two and a half,
there's no chance, there's no chance out of anything about.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Prose in the contest, We're not going to play it
a two and a half.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
But three and a half. I bet Pittsburgh every day, and.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
It's very possible that if we wait because the contest plays.
We can go until Sunday and the lines are dynamic.
The Steelers get to three and a half. And if
I've got the Steelers at three and a half on
the road with Mike Tomlin against a coach who is
not a rookie head coach and Rhuemorris but is new
with this team, and Kirk Cousins coughing off in.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Achilles, and like TJ.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Watt on the edge against Kirk Cousins off in Achilles,
that will be a very hard game.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
You ain't know to us no more now, you know
what I mean? And they just they just paid Cam Heyward,
Like it's yeah, that defense for Pittsburgh, I mean we
can make fun of their offense that is incredible, Like
they just got skills across every every line. The secondary
is incredible. So's that's our real big hesitation, right we
want to play this one. There's the numbers not there
for us right now?
Speaker 1 (12:10):
All right, Jags in Miami Dolphins three and a half.
We had been on monsoon watch for this game. It
looks like the weather is going to be clear. The
line has moved in Miami's direction the past forty hours.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
I don't know why. I don't know if you have
any insights there weather.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
If it's gonna be good weather, that definitely favors Miami.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
But if that doesn't make any sense, because you can't
logically look at these teams and say, all of a sudden,
Miami is a field goal better. You only have to
look at the first eight weeks of the Jaguars last year,
and no, this was a team that was going to
win their division if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
And I think, honestly, that's why we like this number
so much. It feels like too much respect is being
paid to Miami what they did last year, how dominant
and great they were at home. And another thing you
could throw in we didn't even talk about it is
they struggled against good teams, right, Like I think there
were one and seven last year against playoff teams. Yeah,
the Jaguars run a playoff team. Last year. We just
said it. They were gonna be a good team. They're
a really good team. Like if they didn't have injuries
(13:06):
and they didn't fall off the cliff, they would have
been in the playoffs last year. So I'm going to
complete agreeance to chat here. It's just the hate for
the Jaguars has gone too far, and a game of
week both expect will be a shootout. I love the
Jaguars to stay in this game, like everything they do.
I never feel like, even if they're down ten, it
feels like me Chad will get that back towards the
end of the game. So to me, the key number
(13:26):
three and a half, I'm right there with you, Chad.
I would not be shocked this is one of our five.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Yeah, it's so interesting to me if you look at
the Dolphins, no Ramsey, Jaylen Ramsey, no Chubb on the edge,
Christian Wilkins is gone, their defense has no real game changers.
We have Trevor Lawrence to twenty two to one to
(13:51):
lead the league in passing yards, Like we believe in
this Jaguars team, probably a lot more obviously than them.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
It does. Man, I'm putting them on the list.
Speaker 3 (14:03):
Them on the list, just like I'm.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Not saying they're going to be in the finals. But
it's really hard not to consider.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
It's a really nice number with how much we like them.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Our foxhold bet on Tuesday was Vike's.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
At Giants Giants plus one and a half. We've been
talking about the Giants plus one and a half since
the off season when these lines first posted. We have
planted a flag in the sand. We have pushed our
chips in the middle of the table. Like I said,
you and I had dinner last night, we're talking about
all these games. This morning, before I came in, I
(14:44):
listened to Stucky in Raybon on the Action Network pod.
They do their Sunday six pack, which I love. I
like to listen to them because I like to see like,
are they are we on the same side of some
of their games? And we were on the same side
of a lot of the games.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
They love the vikings here. Yeah, you've mentioned this.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
From sharp calls, like in every way we are invested
in the Giants on this one now, I feel like
we're really in a foxhole. We're against Ducky and Rayvaon
and we're against the wise guys. Are you gonna have
to talk me off a wedge?
Speaker 3 (15:18):
No, because I think they're painting as if it's a
perfect world. Where I get it, the Giants secondary is
where you can attack them. What's the strength of this
Vie can see their wideouts right, But it's Sam Donald
at the end of the day, it is Sam Darnald
And like, to me, there's a bunch of things where, yeah,
maybe chat when we're down fourteen to three in the
first quarter, I'm gonna feel like an idiot because it's like,
(15:39):
why did we back this team? But I just can't
see a plane out that way, Like, I just think
Davo's gonna have this team so prepared. This Giants team,
like everything I've read and seen this team. Daniel Jones
has kind of gotten off those early seasons coming back
from big injury. Right, he did not look right for
the first two weeks of camp, but I totally agree
with those people. These last three weeks, he's really put
together a lot of a lot of good camps to
(16:00):
get practices. Then you mix in. I don't think these
enough people are a factor in neighbors, Like he's never
had a neighbors. Like, as much as we want to
praise Saquon Barkley, do running backs move the needle? Chad?
Not for us. Like, if it's a running back going
to do a great team like McCaffrey, that's a big
deal to me and you like we always talk about
how big of a deal that was that Carolina trade
(16:22):
other scenarios, It doesn't really make that big if you're
a bad team. Their running backs not the key. Like,
you need a got on the outside that can win
one on ones, and I think Neighbors is that guy
for this team. Again, Marvin Harrison Junior was not in
this draft, Chad, he would have been a number one receiver,
easily would have been a top five pick. Most likely.
This kid is that gifted. So to me, I still
think not all lough Love's being paid to this Giants team.
(16:44):
The only hesitation for me is their defensive corner who
we respected a lot. He left and went to Ohio State, right,
so that means their defense is gonna be a little
different this year. They bad at pieces Like to me,
their linebacking corps is really good. The fact they brought
in Burns to try to stify someone on the outside
because again already know inside they're great inside the detackled position.
They have one of the best attacks on football, So
(17:05):
you know, to me, it just keeps adding up to
This Giants team got the six wins last year with
Tommy DeVito and good coaching. Now they have a better
rush than they've had in David's whole career there, and
people are selling them. They're just totally out on this team,
and we're getting them as a home dog against Sam
Darnod on the road, a guy who is I don't
remember if I have. I think Evan Sady's four and
(17:25):
ten is a favorite. So it's like it's just all
adding up. We like the trends, we like the team,
we like the matchup. I think the hate, the public perception,
the hate on the Giants has gone too far, and
that's where we're getting such a good number on this
where you know, if this was late in the season,
there's no chance the Giants would be an underdog in
the spot. I think it's just really public public perceptions
(17:46):
really dictating this iron now. And like I said, you
said it too, there's pros on both sides here. So
this is definitely a standoff between the professionals on this
side where the public probably is not having to bet
this game because it's just when you look at the board,
they want nothing to do with this one. And so
these are the kind of games I love because this
really sets up both these teams for the season. People's
opinions on both teams.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
I feel like this also answers so many debates two
years ago. Day Ball and Kevin O'Connell are rookie head coaches. Right,
they both have the kind of years they were one
and two in one score games. It was just a miracle.
Every single week one of them was winning a one
score game. They get to the playoffs. Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins,
(18:28):
Brian Dayball, Kevin O'Connell and the Giants beat the Vikings
at home. Right, Dayball wins Coach of the Year. He's
getting all the accolades. Like you said, like the pendulum
has swung so much. I feel like this is a
really interesting coaching definition game because of what we saw.
(18:49):
Like I have wondered for the past season that Kevin
O'Connell not get enough credit and you're always.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
Like he lost at home in the playoffs to the
guy that we're saying is terrible, it deserves more credit.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
So now both teams stink, both qbs are suspect. We
get a chance to see who deserves any hype as
a coach. I think this is a huge, huge game
for the trajectory of both of their coaching careers. You
talk me back into the house. Yeah, I was on
the ledge. I feel much more confident now it is
our foxhole. I am hyper invested in the Vikings. At
(19:23):
fifteen to one to have the worst record in the NFL,
I would very much like to kick it off with
a positive way. All right, Carolina at New Orleans. This
number is at four. This was my exec decision. The
Panthers may be the closest thing we have to a
consensus pick for the over this season. According to everybody
(19:46):
at the Action Network.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
Yeah, win totals.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
We have expectation busting bets on the Carolina Panthers right now.
They've upgraded the offensive line at both cars a wide receiver,
they've upgraded at coaching. All of the trends that I
mentioned at the top are applicable here.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
One more I'll add for you.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
NFL Division underdogs thirty seven fifteen and one against the
spread seventy one percent in week one since twenty fourteen,
covering by nearly five points per game. Couldn't feel better
about this Carolina vent except for the fact everybody in
(20:33):
the world is now on Carolina.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Well, actually, if you look even in the Action app
the tickets are slanted towards the Saints, but it's the
money is overwhelmingly on the Panthers. Like that's we say
the time, that's professional.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
That's good, right, that's what we want.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
And I think that's why even now I just opened
up to two of the most public sports books out there,
they're both they both have moved to three and a half,
which is shocking, like the books that don't take professional money. Somehow,
we're at three and a half. So it does show
the public yuck. You just said they are starting to
come in on this Panthers team. But like I said
to I think it's just because of the number, Like
four and a half. I felt like it was way
(21:09):
too high. Three and a half feels honestly right like this,
I have this number grade at three, So getting to
three and a half that sounds right to me. If
they got to three, I might be able to be
talking to taking the Saints because that's when the valley
does switch to them. But we're we're getting four and
a half right now in our contest, and you can
still get four and a half at a couple of
books out there. I know our sponsor a bet three
five is at four, but that's a good number, like
(21:30):
to me, this is going to be a closed game. Like,
who do you think is gonna make the mistake here?
I think it's the Saints. Like I have more faith
than Bryce Young playing smart, playing safe, protecting the ball
where Derek Carr he's looking over his shoulder already. He
knows that Spencer Ratler's coming for that job. And even
the fans, the Saints fans are pushing for this kid.
(21:52):
So to me, I feel like Bryce Young is gonna
be playing free and care free in this new offense.
And like, again, we already talked at NASA about it
during his new head coach. We love everything we've read
and heard coming out of the Panthers camp. The question
for us is their secondary. Like, at the end of
the day, they do have one of the worst secondaries
of football people. And I understand why you're like, well,
(22:13):
that's why I'm taking a love is over and that's
why I kind of like the Saints sustaining this game.
But do you like them at this number? That's my
question of people. It's like, in this divisional game, how
do you not take the Panthers that are basically equals
with this Saints team. I know they don't look that
way because the win totals and the pup perception from
last year. But to me, starting fresh with a brand
new season, this isn't last year, right, This isn't this
(22:35):
terrible bums we bet last year in this Panthers team.
This is a new Panthers team with a new identity,
whole new coaching staff. So yeah, to me, we're banking
on a big Bryce Shung bounce back this season. It's
got to start here, like if this guy's gonna wins
our divisional bet, Chad, he's got to win this week
one game. So again, we're gonna get into our money
line around robin bet later on. This is probably gonna
(22:56):
sneak in there for this money line a round robin. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
I think look, when we talk about the Panthers and
the reason why everybody action is so all over the Panthers,
partially because of their luck factors last year and all
the games that they lost, they were in a position
to win because of bad coaching, unlucky turnovers, things that
just happened that over the course of time regress back
(23:21):
for them in a good way. You mentioned Dave Canalis,
people who don't understand when Gino Smith went from sort
of me, you know, wandering quarterback, journeyman quarterback to pro bowler.
It was because Dave Canallis was his coach. Last season
in Tampa Bay, when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman quarterback
(23:43):
to Bucks in the playoffs, Dave Canalis was his coach.
So we're all investing a lot in a regression to
the mean for their luck. We're investing a lot in
what Dave Canallice can do as a coach. We're investing
in improvements on the offensive line. We're investing in Bryce
Young being a little bit better. We're also fading in
a big way. What you just said, Dennis Allen, Derek
(24:03):
Carr truly at the bottom of their respective rankings when
it comes to coaches and quarterbacks against the spread during
their time in the league. I mean, these guys are
awful at this. And you mentioned Derek Carr already looking
over his shoulder. There was a study of a survey
(24:23):
the fan base with the least amount of optimism is
the New Orleans Saints very possible Spencer Rattler is starting
a quarterback for the Saints with a different coach. By
the time we're talking about this, team four weeks from now.
I believe it before Halloween for sure. All right, Arizona Buffalo.
(24:44):
I don't feel like we want to put this one in.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
No skip it.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
I will say that we didn't even talk about sharp calls,
but that was definitely one where if you're a fan
of the show and you listened to us back in May,
I love the Bills. I thought we were getting a
good night. One of the Bills basically got a bunch
of sharp calls bullied me to getting off my position
on that, moving towards Arizona, which people know if they
listen all summer, I do love Arizona. There's too many
questions here, Chad. There's too many questions, and I don't
(25:09):
like how the number has been moving. It went from
five and a half up to six and a half.
Now people are saying, well, if you like the Cardinals,
why don't you just wait and hope to get a seven.
Because I told you guys on Tuesday show, this will
be one of the biggest teas teams. The Bills will
be in a lot of teasers, just like I said,
Seattle and Cincinnati, Well, this is just they fit the profile, right,
So I'm happy with waiting seeing right, we want to
(25:30):
see the connection with with Kyler and Marvin Harris. So
you know, I got no issue sitting this one out,
but I'm with you. It's it's a game where I
didn't think we'd have it as one of our five,
and how as the days have gone along here, it's
just like, you know what, why don't we just say
it and wait and see? On that one?
Speaker 2 (25:43):
Dude? You know it's Marvin Harrison, right.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
Yeah, you know the whole joke right now. You'd never
say the man's name. Why, Well, I can tell you why.
But there's a reason you never say that man's name
like Voldemort.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
I don't know the joke. And now I know what.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
I don't eve want to press Philly, you don't know.
Speaker 2 (25:59):
I don't want to lie. I think I know where
this is going.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Having done some stories on Marvin Harrison, I don't want
to give Matt Mitchell anything. He's got to cut out
Houston and Indy. This was our Simon says. It's now
at three at bet three six y five, so it's
ticked up.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
This is public money. I think this is a game
that's going to go higher.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
We are investing in something that we believe in, not
something we've seen with Anthony Richardson, but that divisional dog
trend that I mentioned earlier in the show that is
in play here, the same one that the Panthers have
the advantage over the Saints the dogs between one and
five and a half.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
That's a check.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Fading the short favorite on the road especially, that's a check.
I don't know, maybe wait until Sunday to say if
we can get a better number, but like obviously we're
going to go with the culture contest.
Speaker 3 (26:53):
Yeah, I don't mind taking the two and a half.
But I think me and you joked last night about it,
right where you were saying, what's your hesitation here? I said,
the kids made seventeen starts since high school. Like Anthony Richardson,
he doesn't have the reps. That's the fear, and that's
why I understand why public the public is coming in
so heavy on Houston alsto. You mix in the fact
the Colts have won what one game and the Week
(27:14):
one in like ten years. I mean, they're one of
the worst teams historically in this Week one, and that's
people playing the trends right. They're just back on their
trends there. What really signaled to me, Chad was his
tweet I saw yesterday. Bookmakers say they have four times
the amount of money right now on Houston. Then they
have colts that this will literally dictate this one game
(27:35):
will dictate their entire Sunday compared to any other game.
If you listen to the show long enough. This is
where I want to be. I want to be with
the books. Even if this doesn't doesn't hit. This is
a long term winner the book. Like we say all
the time, there's a reason all those hotels exist in
Atlantic City in Las Vegas, right the book's long term.
They're gonna win these ones. So to me, when I
hear bookmakers saying they have four times the amount of
(27:57):
money on Houston than they do on any other side,
oh my god, it feels so good. Like that's why
I'm so happy we got the three now. Even in
our contest, if it's two and a half, I have
no hesitation.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
Oh see, I was going to say to you in
the contest, do we feel strongly enough at two and
a half?
Speaker 2 (28:11):
I do, okay, because like all of a sudden, well
this number is not layding on three. Well, I'm just saying, like, all.
Speaker 1 (28:18):
Of a sudden, it could be we're faced with an
option of Jags at three and a half or Colts
at two and a half.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
Honestly, I would go Colts there.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
The closest one I am to being bullied and taken
out of is that Giants game we talked about just
because of respect that half for all these other professionals,
where it's like I get their hesitation with it, I'm
kind of digging my heels in on that one, where
this one it's not so much. I'm just playing the
numbers right like this This one is purely I feel
like this game should be one. Houston should be fair
by one. Maybe I had to pick. The number has
(28:50):
just grown too much. There's just been too much going
on for this summer.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
I have no problem taking the Vikings Giants game out
of our five and not having to sweat that on
Sunday night. Or you know, like we got so many
other games we like and this one we're getting so
many conflicting signals. I kind of want to skip Denver Seattle.
(29:15):
I don't think it's gonna make our I don't think
it's gonna be.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
And especially i've seen a lot of books already shifted
up to the six. For us, I was hoping this
would drop down to five and a half. Maybe we
would get lucky into professional money with coming on Denver.
They're the same view as us. It's a rookie bone
Knicks on the road against the twelfth man and what
we've perceived one of the better defensive minds of football,
so that that money is never gonna shift. This number
(29:40):
is what it is, right It's kind of stuck where
it's at. So I'm agreen swe I just can't be
this being our one favorite.
Speaker 1 (29:45):
We put in Washington at Tampa Tampa three and a
half right now, this one, like all the trends are
sort of leaning in the direction we want them to.
And I've talked about the luck rankings earlier. The luck
rankings are in my head a little bit like I
know everything about rookie QBS and Jayden Daniels and sort
(30:06):
of the trends against betting that. But Baker is fourteen
and twenty six as a favorite, Todd Bowles is seven
and fourteen is a favorite.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Of three or more.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
We have talked about the Panthers a lot because of
the luck rankings at the opposite end of that. One
of the luckier teams last year was the Bucks. We
are fading the Bucks. We like their season win total
under I know Nick Giffen has been saying two fans,
go find a Bucks to finish last in the NFC
South bet. I don't want to put this in the contest,
(30:46):
but I feel obligated to at least finish the conversation.
Speaker 3 (30:50):
Yeah, I have no read on this one, honestly. Okay,
my god, this is the game where I bet props.
I bet Mike Evans over receiving and props. Just because
we talked about bad second arys. Washington is another team
that has a home horrible secondary. So I'm looking forward
to just watching Jaden and Daniels. I didn't want to
put too much money this one because Chad's right, Like,
in my soul, I wanted to bet Baker, especially when
(31:11):
this touch three. This was at three almost all that
yesterday at a couple of books. That's as where I
wanted to be at. I wanted to take Baker at three.
Now this up to three and a half. Yeah, of course,
the better of me is like, why don't you just
take the three and a half with Jayden Daniels like this.
This feels like a coin flip game. I just can't
do it. I can't pull that you're going. There's just
too many unknowns for me.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
Chad Good.
Speaker 1 (31:28):
Now we're narrowing it down. If you are in the
production room, listen to me. Come to camera one because
guess what it is Time for the big.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Balls Better the Week.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Presented by Tommy John. That's right, our big Balls bet
of the Week is presented by our newest sponsor, Tommy John. Listen,
you guys who listened to the first show. You know
how much I love Tommy John. I was trying to
think of a way before I came in this morning
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I start to think about like affordable luxury. These are
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It is Tommy John. It's softer than other underwear, it's lighter.
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Tommy John has just told us it's time for the
big Balls bet of the week.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
We were gonna make it.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
A different game, and then I just called an audible
because it feels like we are dug in on the
Lions and the wise guys like the Rams, Like we
say these about trends, right, we like these trends when
they're fifty eight percent, sixty percent, seventy one percent.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
We're talking about divisional games.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
But that also means that like five and a half
out of ten, four out of ten, you're gonna lose
that bet. Also, I feel like we're trying to thread
the needle with this Lions team here, and look like
this this could go to four. So I think if
people want to get it, they got to get it now.
Because the juice is on three and a half minus
one twenty, but there's more money on the Lions. I
(33:56):
would have no problem putting in the contest. If we
are looking to put in a favorite. The Lions have
the best three year stretch against the spread since the
Patriots in that twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen range. Jared
Goff twenty five and nine against the spread indoors, Jared
Goff undefeated against the spread as a starter during his career.
(34:17):
Like we do have concerns about the Rams defense without
Aaron Donald, we love the Lions foundationally, offensive line, defensive line.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
I'm not afraid.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
Yeah, this is gonna be to buy far our chalky
is bad, maybe even of this season like this. This
doesn't get more chalky than this. I talked to two
bookmakers yesterday. I asked them, what's your guys viewing this game?
How the numbers look in It's about two to three
times the amount of money right now is on the
lines than it is on the Rams. And that's right, No,
because I view it as I'm not afraid we think
this n we're should be four to four and a half.
(34:48):
It's three and a half, and we have questions right
now about the Rams. We have questions about the Rams
offensive line, We have questions what their identity is gonna
be without Aaron Donald and that young secondary. None of that,
none of that at all with this this Detroit team.
Maybe we do have some questions about the new pieces
they added to their secondary, but I just feel so
confident this offense and I think the argument will run
(35:11):
this ball down the Rams throat, Like that's where we're
gonna see the biggest difference of losing Aaron Donald what
he did in that middle, not just in pass rushing,
but eating up two to three blockers on rushing. Like
this guy was just an animal, and you know, not
the everyday person realizes that, but this guy was really
that important to this team. So you know, the Gibbs
David Montgomery two headed horse we think Detroit has in
(35:33):
that backfield that's gonna set up Laporta and al'mond Saint
Brown Like that, to me is the big difference here.
And we already talked about people know we love this
offensive line. Like the lines, I'd have to go back
and grade it, but I think they're either my second
or number one offensive line head into this season. It's
like this team is so complete. That's why we joked
like they should be the one seed in the NFC,
(35:54):
like it's all there for this.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
It's just hard to say that about the line.
Speaker 3 (35:57):
It's hard to say about the line here in Week
one at home. That doesn't worry in me at all.
So don't think where the chalk is. We do Chalky
picks like this. This is just line up with us.
Speaker 2 (36:07):
Think like we're just saying that to new people.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
Like we've asked people so far to bet on the Giants,
the Panthers, the Colts. We're talking about Daniel Jones, Bryce Young,
Anthony Richardson, who you said has played seventeen games. We
don't have to defend ourselves from making a smart Chalky
pick that is the right pick. You might have to
(36:30):
defend yourself for saying, like for not being afraid of
taking the lines, but being afraid to say, Marvin Harrison.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Like you're playing fire. You don't even know.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
We'll see how it goes when we eventually do our
you know, live show.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
That's what I'm saying. You're going to Philly.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
We're going.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Don't think you know what you're.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
Doing, right, We're going to Philly, all right? Last game
on the board. We want to talk about New York
Jet at San Francisco. Look like, seriously, right, Trent Williams
effect this line was at three and a half, Trent
Williams signs it goes up to four.
Speaker 2 (36:58):
Now it's at four and a half. Yeah, Like that
is rare for an.
Speaker 1 (37:02):
Offensive lineman to have that much of an impact on
a point spread. That's the only reason this thing is moving.
Reminders since the two thousand Super Bowl, the Super since
two thousand season, the Super Bowl losers ten and fourteen
straight up, five and nineteen against the spread when they're
favored by over a field goal, four to nine against
the spread. So like we like the Jets. We liked
(37:24):
him at three and a half, I like him at four.
I like him at four and a half.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
Again, Jad, I hit you with that trend. That's the
big thing. But the biggest sticking point is for me
and Chad, we feel like this Jets team coming in
here is just being undervalued. And that's a simple fact
of Aaron Rodgers has not played football in a long time,
but when he has played, he's played really well. And again,
I know it's been two years, but this team mclee
(37:51):
all agree. This Jets team right here is probably better
than those Green Bay teams from back then. Like they
went out and they did improve this offensive line this offseason,
Like they did go out and get him a number
two receiver on Mike Williams, who is healthy for this game,
we perceive, but even if it's not, they've gone out
and got a rookie receiver. They went out and got
Lizard who I know people think that's a joke, but
Lazarre has a rhythm and a repertoire with Rogers, which
(38:13):
is a big deal of these kind of games. So
the Trent Williams moving this by a point makes total
sense when he is the best left tackle in football,
so he should be moving this line like he did.
But can we all agree, It's just it has not
felt right with this forty nine Ers team now things
that might have got corrected because they do have the
(38:33):
structure there right, They have a great front office. I mean,
people want to knock John Lynch for some of his
first round picks, doesn't really matter when he's nailing all
of his other late round picks. Like this guy for
all his bad you know, Trey Lance picks, He's got
Brock Purdy like this is a home run hit by him,
this guy, So I do want to give him his
flowers and Jed York for stepping up and paying these guys,
(38:55):
which was just bizarro world, not just getting Ayuk or
him in the building. But I think we need appalized
earlier in the season of Trent William's missing camp, i
Uk only being there for a week, Like, come on,
if there's gonna be a stumble for this forty nine
ers team in the season, it feels like it's gonna
year out of the gate, right like this is this
is kind of where it is. And you know, McCaffrey
(39:15):
didn't practice for a month. I know he is back now,
but there's just a lot to pick at where the Jets.
Oh my god, Aaron Rodgers went to Egypt and back
in May like that that's been the knock or Hassan Reddick,
a guy who's never being played on their team, never
showed up the camp. It doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
He hasn't played on the team and on a defensive
line that is one of the best defensive lines in
football already.
Speaker 3 (39:36):
Yeah, and obviously, yes, it'd be much better if he
was there. And they do have a depth issue on
that defensive line, but maybe you know just as good
linebacking corps. I mean, just because Navar Bowman is not
who he was because he's coming back off an injury.
It's like, there is a lot to love with this
Jets team. So if we're just going matchup scheme wise,
they remind me a lot of what that Ravens team
(39:58):
was last year that gave so much trouble to this
forty nine ers offense. And that's really what I'm banking
on here. So another team, Chad that we debated about
putting our money line around Robin because we do love
the money line here. How do you not love the
four and a half right? This game feels like it
will come down to a field goal or a four
point finish, So love it that it's back up at
the four and a half. I know there's a couple
(40:18):
of books out there at three and a half. I
expect once one the public money keeps coming and this
will keep going up to four and a half in
most books.
Speaker 1 (40:26):
You mentioned our underdog money line parlay. We did ask
our sponsor Bet three six five to give us an
underdog money line parlay and odds boost nice this season
and guess what, Because they love us and they love you,
they said yes. So each week we will give out
a two team money line dog parlay. Bet three six
(40:50):
five will have that highlighted on their site all weekend
with boosted odds. You know where you can get beat
three six five the states where you're eligible twice a show,
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Speaker 3 (41:06):
My Dog Blucks Your Dogs, Your Dog Blucks mot.
Speaker 1 (41:10):
Dog Your week one boosted underdog parlay that will be
highlighted at bet three sixty five. Get Ready Carolina and
Bryce Young and the Panthers beating the Saints Anthony Richardson
Shane Steich in Indianapolis, Colts beating the Texans in Indianapolis.
(41:34):
The boosts will be featured on bet three six fives soon.
The more listeners who bet these boosts, by the way,
the more picks we can get boosted. Both games are
also eligible for Bet three six five's early payout promo.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
This is one of my favorite things they did last season.
Speaker 1 (41:48):
Your moneyline pick gets marked as a win if they
take a seventeen point lead, even if they go on
to blow the game. So this matters whether you're betting
an underdog or a favorite doesn't matter that team goes
up by say seventeen points, you win the bet.
Speaker 2 (42:03):
Definitely bet it at Bet three six five. I simon
Survivors the Survivor pool pick of the week.
Speaker 1 (42:17):
Seattle or Bengals. That's sort of where I'm landing. But
you got any thoughts.
Speaker 3 (42:22):
If you're in two survivor pools, split them up. Never
put all your eggs in one basket. Cincinnati is basically
the one everyone's gonna bank on to lose because they
figure everyone Joe Public's gonna pick them. But it's also
like this is a this is a nice time to
use Cincinnati, right the historically people are gonna keep pointing to, well,
they've struggled in Week one. Didn't we already talk about that, Chad.
(42:42):
It's like Joe Burrow's never had an offseason, right. He
never every camp He's always either injured or he's missing
days in camp. This year, he never missed a day
in camp. He was there all all camp. The hesitation
with Chase I understand if this was an incredibly tough matchup.
So New England Patriots one of the worst teams we
perceive in all of football, with.
Speaker 2 (43:03):
You know, basically playing a backup quarterback.
Speaker 3 (43:06):
Yes, with a with an offensive line that we view
as one of the more suspect offensive lines in all football.
So I think we will have eventually have a time
where we'll start backing New England in these type of spots,
and we might even put them on our moneylane around Robin. Uh,
this is not that spot right. So for me, if
you want to go really safe, I trust Cincinnati. If
(43:30):
you want to be a little different and use a
team that we don't know when else, we're going to
be able to use them just because their division is
so hard. I like Seattle. Like Seattle we already talked about.
I have a lot of respect right now for the
NFC West. I don't think the Cardinals will be all walkover,
which would be an easy pickt for Seattle and Survivor.
So yeah, for our because we have to pick one
in our for our show. Do you just want to
(43:53):
go SINCEI? Or where do you want to go there?
Let's goin, let's go SINCEY. Yeah. So we're going the
most public pick for Survivor Week.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
One, and we're making a huge public bet on the Lions,
which we are sure we'll get in our final five,
which I'll review at the end of the show.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
Signed.
Speaker 1 (44:06):
We got a couple more segments. Simon's biggest bets right now?
Are you going to place a bet or what Giants?
Speaker 3 (44:13):
The Giants are definitely up there. I would say the
Colts and the Jets. I've just put the most in again.
The Jets i'd been betting for the last month when
I really did think we wouldn't see Trent Williams until October.
Him coming back and his reasonings were coming back. They're
very human, right. He saw his teammate almost lose his
life and it kind of put perspective for him and
he was just like, what am I doing here? Why
(44:34):
am I staying home over a couple of million where
I need to be with my guys. So getting him
back was a big deal. Hasn't really shifted my view
of it. It's like I betted at four and a half.
Now it's back up the four and a half. I
still love it at four and a half. Chad's right though,
like I really love the Giants the Panthers, right, I
started betting them and when they're at six, take me
a five and a half. I've taken them a four
(44:56):
and a half. If you're still late to the port
ay and there's a four out there, I don't mind
taking the four as well. So right now, those are
definitely my three biggest bets. I suspect come Sunday, I
probably will have a lot more on This line's team
is the weekly on along. I've just really loved them
and just how it lays out for their matchup against
(45:17):
this Rams team. So right now, those are definitely my
three biggest bets.
Speaker 1 (45:21):
All right, So now we got to new Scoot Roulette
for those who are new to the show, those.
Speaker 2 (45:24):
Who we're bringing it back, We're bringing it back.
Speaker 1 (45:27):
Bob Scucci, who is a guy that I wrote about
in my best selling book called The Odds, about guys
who were betting on sports for a living. He was
the bookmaker at the start of the Hotel. He was
a longtime co host of this podcast with me when
I started it at ESPN, and then brought it over
when we launched Action. He and I used to play
a game every week on to one on one head
(45:50):
to head matchup. We called it scoot Roulette. Simon and
I have carried on that tradition Scoot Roulette.
Speaker 2 (45:56):
Simon.
Speaker 1 (45:57):
I will let you go first, give me the pick
you want to make. I feel like I know exactly
what it should be.
Speaker 3 (46:02):
You don't. I'm gonna shock people just because we didn't
talk about this game and it's totally off board and
Chad will never see it coming. I'm gonna go with
the homerk pick and take the Eagles at minus two Wow.
In the NFL International Series, favorites are thirty three, ten
and one straight up, twenty nine and fifteen sixty six
percent against the spread in international games. So give me
(46:23):
them Birds. Now that it's under three. I love I
love Green bead three. Now that I'm getting two to
two and a half with this Eagles team, I think
this will this will come down to a field goal.
I'll take the Eagles here.
Speaker 1 (46:35):
Chad Millman, who proudly hails from Chicago here we Go,
loves the city like no other, even though he hasn't
lived there in thirty something years.
Speaker 3 (46:48):
Are you gonna tell us how there's no place like
Chicago in the summer.
Speaker 2 (46:51):
It's greatest city in the world. L this summer.
Speaker 1 (46:53):
I was just there about a month ago. It's the
freaking best. I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus five.
Speaker 2 (46:59):
Oh, God, there we go.
Speaker 1 (47:01):
Evan Abrams. It's time to bring in our buddy, Evan
before we get out of here. He is our director
of research. He's going to give us the final word
on a couple of things that we need to know.
Evan the last word with Evan Abrams.
Speaker 2 (47:17):
We're finished talking.
Speaker 3 (47:18):
What's up, fellas?
Speaker 4 (47:19):
I got two things for you today and I'll start
with this only at the Action Network. Could we have
a game with this month's contention and it be Giants
and Vikings this weekend with all the great games we have.
But if you like the Giants, you probably do because
you have faith in Brian Dables. So Dable is sixty
three percent against the spread and his coaching career with
the Giants that is highest among all head coaches over
(47:41):
the last twenty years with a minimum of ten games coach.
And the greatest part about it, Dabel has had four
different starting quarterbacks. All four are above five hundred against
the spread with the team. Listen to this murderer's row,
Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Danny DeVito, the trash is a
gold mine, and Davis Webb. Brian Dable does an incredible
(48:01):
job with whatever he has so in this situation getting
the point and a half, I can understand it.
Speaker 3 (48:06):
I'll give you one more on Dable.
Speaker 4 (48:07):
So the Giants actually opened as a favorite and looks
like they're going to close as the underdog. That's already
happened to Dable six times in New York. He's covered
five of those six, so he kind of likes the number.
Maybe they lose by one and you get the hook here.
So I knew you guys liked the Giants. I had
to toss in there.
Speaker 3 (48:25):
Yeah, you don't have to worry about that. He keeps
his composure pretty simple.
Speaker 4 (48:28):
Go out there and rip that sound bitch, and then
here's a great one. I found this literally last night.
I messaged Matt Mitchell. I tell him I can't believe
this is true. It's just really fun. So Derek Carr
has won fifty seven percent of his game straight up
as a favorite. Nothing crazy there in his career, about
what you'd expect when he plays as a favorite indoors
(48:50):
perfect conditions. He's actually only nine and thirteen straight up.
That's four games under five hundred in the last twenty years.
Only one quarterback is four plus games under five hundred
as an indoor favorite. That is Derek's brother, David Carr,
who is zero and four straight up in that spot.
(49:10):
You come home, brother, So the Cars nine and seventeen
straight up. I know everyone's on Carolina. I just couldn't
believe it when I saw David's name, But the spot's there.
Speaker 2 (49:27):
Everything he's telling us is giving me so much confidence.
Speaker 3 (49:29):
Oh, you're the best at it. I appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (49:31):
It's almost like I'm almost buoyed. I'm gonna walk out
of here on air. Thank you, Evan Simon. I feel
like we got I see seven games right now that
we've whittled it down that we want to choose from
the games that are still on my list. Steelers three
(49:52):
and a half, Jags three and a half, Giants one
and a half, Panthers plus four Colts.
Speaker 2 (49:58):
If we can get to three and.
Speaker 1 (49:59):
A half, probably two and a half, Lions three and
a half, Jets four and a half. So yeah, either
either we're getting rid of the Steelers and Jazz with
a late entrance.
Speaker 3 (50:08):
I definitely see the Steelers not making it right. I
just don't think we'll ever get that number we want,
but that Jag one is tough, Like I want to
get that in.
Speaker 2 (50:16):
But yeah, after you hear from our guy Evan on
the Giants.
Speaker 3 (50:19):
You gotta to probably that on my dead hands, Like
I'm so in on this Giants team. He's just he's
a great coach and people are just under rating them.
I mean, it's it's ridiculous how much hate this team's goetting.
Speaker 1 (50:29):
All right, So here's how this is going to go.
For people who follow along and are playing in the contest.
Simon and I are going to put our picks in
the contest after the show preliminarily, and then we will
judge it again on Sunday after we do Convince Me
our live show eleven am watching on Action Network YouTube.
Subscribe like to what you're watching now, follow the show,
Convince Me and this and all of our shows in
(50:49):
the Action app. After we do Convince Me on Sunday morning,
Simon and I will put our picks into the app
the Phase five feed. Follow that handle in the app
and you'll see what we areultimately end up with. But
we're probably going to put five in now just to
lock in some numbers and see how things change. As
a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet three
(51:10):
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Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
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Don't forget if you're watching us on YouTube, like subscribe
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Simon and I will return with our next episode of
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(52:48):
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Say whatever you want feedback is a gift. Until next time.
Love You.
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Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
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Welcome to The Favorites, the Podcast, presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
We are live from our.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Midtown Manhattan studios, the Tommy John Studio at Action Network HQ.
I'm joined as always by my cos my companion, my
campadre might b FF, Simon Hunter l Osimon.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
We made a brother, we made it.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
We get to see each other face to face.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Last night, you and I went to dinner together and
we talked about all the things that bff's talk about
when they're at dinner together. Most importantly, are we overinvested
in the Carolina Panthers?
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Have we made a mistake on the Giants?
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Can you convince me to actually bet the Bears instead
of the Titans.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
We are going to get to all of it.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Today is our NFL Week one Best Bets episode. Simon
or nine narrowed down our five picks and the Favorites
podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest
presented by BET three six five. Don't forget you can
still sign up at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. On
(01:29):
today's show, as we will do every Thursday this season.
We'll do sharp calls, our big balls, bet of the week,
the underdog, moneyline, parlay Survivor, pool picks, Simon's biggest bets.
Our director of Research, Evan Abrams, will join us, and
(01:50):
so much more. But first, as a reminder, the Favorites
Podcast is presented by Bet three six five and this
just in new Bet three sixty five customers now get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Sign up using promo code.
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Favorites, deposit ten dollars and place a bet for five
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bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.
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And more.
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Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty
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(02:42):
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Speaker 2 (02:54):
You will have.
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Chances to get in over the next couple of weeks
because we drop a couple of scores, but now is
the time to get in if you want to have
the full slate for the next eighteen weeks. That's all
the way into the new year.
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Folks.
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Don't get left behind. It's totally free to play. Like
I said, just five picks against it spread every single week.
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Over one hundred grand in cash prizes up for grabs.
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You will be competing against me and Simon the picks
that we talk about on this show. What we narrow
it down to that is what will end up in
the contest. First place in this contest takes home forty
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(03:41):
problems signing for the contest. We've gotten through that. Go
sign up now. Favorites dot actionnetwork, dot com. All right,
as always, we like to hear how the wise guys
are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we
are as a podcast, Simon. The lines move based on
our conversations. It happen on Tuesday. We've seen it happen
(04:01):
over the last forty eight hours. The pros also feel
compelled the our own little sort of Roman senate, telling
us constantly what they think of our opinions. All right, Simon,
let's go to some sharp calls. Just give me the
highlights here. What games have the guy said, we're right
and we're wrong. Before we dive in a little bit deeper.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody said,
let's start with they hated Chad, because that's that's really
what people want to know. What the what are the
pros hate that we picked off the top? They hate
our lions pick they do. Yeah, they think we're walking
(04:47):
into it, and I disagree. I think this sets up
nice for this Detroit team at home in the scenario.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
I think I love that they hate it because we're
going to come back around and it.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Raises the stakes.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
Yeah, a little bit on this bet for later in Well,
I just said to them it's brutal because it's the
only favorite. Mean you agreed on really, so you are okay?
That was one off the top. The number two is
a game you like. I know our guy Chris Raybaund likes.
They all like Tennessee. They keep throwing that stat in
my face, right, number one pick? Overall? What are they owe?
Fourteen and one in the last fifteen starts against the spread.
(05:20):
We'll get into that game because they got a lot
of opinions on the Chicago game, but I haven't budget
on that. I still love Chicago, so it's not shocking
to here. They love the Titans so much. The Detroit
one shocked me more the fact they love the Rams
so much, but this one didn't. For the last one
that they think we got wrong, Chad, I can't believe
it. It's the Giants they like. They like the Vikings. So
(05:43):
that's another one we're going to dive into. I just
don't think people understand that this Giants team isn't as
bad as they perceive. And that's what I'm trying to
get into people's heads here. That's why I try to
get to their heads. Man, I thought that was gonna
be the pros verse shows. I thought the public would
be on the Vikings, the pros would be on the Giants.
It's honestly split right in the middle of I've talked
(06:03):
to pros you like our side, and pros you really
hate that bet we have made. So that's off the
top for the ones they love. I think a couple
of the ones we knew they were gonna love, right,
the Panthers, that's a pros game. We knew the pros
would love that. Unfortunately, it sounds like it's a little
bit of the public game as well. The public has
come around on this Panthers team. It is, but again
(06:24):
I think it's because of the number. Right. We've seen
the four and a half now drop down to four
three and a half in a couple of books. So
to me, again that makes sense. The pros like the number.
I don't think we played the same as that three
and a half as we would at four and a half,
So to me, that's the big difference there. And the
last one is the Jets like the pros love the
Jets like the forty nine ers. They've had so much turmoil,
(06:45):
it makes sense why the public would be on the
Jets as well. And then you throw into the trends
all the numbers you want to be on the Jets
of four and a half. Even though even I get
the fear because there's been a lot of buyback on
the forty nine ers, I think it's just because it's
the money night game, right guys, we talk all the time.
People are gonna have their parlays, all their teasers tied
(07:05):
to this forty Niners team. So I'm not too shocked
the number's gone up. It's it's holding now four and
a half. Now, if me and you come into our
show Sunday night and then numbers up to six, I'm
gonna be scared because that's some big professional money coming
in on the fortnes But right now, to me, it's
business as usual. So as far as you guys for
sharp calls, we got a couple of picks they hate
(07:25):
chat and a couple of picks they love.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Well, it's good because it also allows us to dig
in a little bit deeper on some of these games.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
The Giants game in particular the Lions game.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
I know we talked about what are big balls bet
of the week presented by time of John by the way,
but what it might be before the show.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Yeah, I think we need to call an audible. I'm
gonna call the audible based on the sharp calls.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Okay, when we get to it, all right, So listen,
Simon and I discussed on Tuesday that you know, early
end of the season, we lean into these trends a
bit more than normal because we don't know a ton
about these teams yet, Like quarterbacks aren't playing a lot
during the regulars during the preseason, so it's hard to
judge the real tendencies of these teams at this point.
(08:11):
So we can't play spots, we can't take advantage of
a lot of mispricing.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
All of that is just harder in weeks one and
week two. So there are a couple trends.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
There's about three trends that I just want to highlight
right now if I refer back to them during the
show when I say this team follows the trends, it's
these trends just so I don't have to repeat them
every single time. Number one, again, all from the brilliant
mind of our director of research, Evan Abrams. Underdogs between
one and five and a half points in Week one
(08:41):
cover at a sixty four percent clip since twenty eighteen
to sample size of nearly one hundred and fifty games.
By the way, they're also fifty eight percent over the
past decade. Really good trend for underdogs in that one
to five and a half. Ranch favorites of one to
three and a half points cover only forty three of
the time in September based off of sample size and
(09:04):
more than five hundred and fifty games. Road dogs who
missed the playoffs the year before fifty eight percent against
the spread the past twenty years. A lot of games
that fit into all these trends, plus some divisional stuff
that we're going to talk about. Look, the first game
that is sort of on the edge of our top five,
(09:26):
Pittsburgh in Atlanta. Atlanta is a three point favorite. We've
been holding out hoping to get three and a half.
It's one of the few games that hasn't moved a
lot of games have. The juice is on the minus
three at minus one twenty, so it could go to
three and a half. They're asking us to pay the
price to get the three. I just think it's like,
the more I think about this game, so hard not
to back the Steelers here right It is like one
(09:50):
of those bets that did not get a lot of
my attention in the last until the past forty eight hours.
I'd even make it a candidate for underdog parlay, which
we're gonna get to.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Maybe it won't get there, but look the stats I
ticked off at the top of the show. Irrelevant.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
Mike Tomlin the best underdog coach against the spread the
past twenty years.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
all the time, Like, that's what the hell we paid
to do?
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Is gonna make our final five? Do we like Pittsburgh
right now?
Speaker 3 (10:15):
We like Pittsburgh. You said, there's a lot of books
out there that have this at three and a half.
The book we're working with as it at three. Are
we really going to force it in at a two
and a half at a bad number when there's three
and a halfs out there?
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Good point?
Speaker 3 (10:25):
No, Like that's just something we never do. So we
like this number. This is another game though the pros
are split on. I think there's some professionals that really
love this Atlanta team. They got them pegged as eleven
twelve win team, a top seed in the NFC, and this,
to them is a game that kind of sets that
benchmark because Alanta does have some tough games here early
in the slate. So looking at this matchup, I think
(10:47):
me and Chat said what we need to say about
this one, where it's like we like the coaching matchup
better for Pittsburgh. We like Pittsburgh's defense much more than
we trust Atlanta's offense, especially again, Kirk Cousins first game
after coming off this injury. You know, Achilles is a
big deal, especially if someone that's putting all their power
and their weight onto that back keel every time they
push off. Every throw he makes is on that back heel.
(11:09):
So my hesitation for Atlanta is valid. The numbers though,
that's what we're playing here. Like three and a half.
I love Pittsburgh. If if it's two and a half,
there's no chance, there's no chance out of anything about.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Prose in the contest, We're not going to play it
a two and a half.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
But three and a half. I bet Pittsburgh every day, and.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
It's very possible that if we wait because the contest plays.
We can go until Sunday and the lines are dynamic.
The Steelers get to three and a half. And if
I've got the Steelers at three and a half on
the road with Mike Tomlin against a coach who is
not a rookie head coach and Rhuemorris but is new
with this team, and Kirk Cousins coughing off in.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Achilles, and like TJ.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Watt on the edge against Kirk Cousins off in Achilles,
that will be a very hard game.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
You ain't know to us no more now, you know
what I mean? And they just they just paid Cam Heyward,
Like it's yeah, that defense for Pittsburgh, I mean we
can make fun of their offense that is incredible, Like
they just got skills across every every line. The secondary
is incredible. So's that's our real big hesitation, right we
want to play this one. There's the numbers not there
for us right now?
Speaker 1 (12:10):
All right, Jags in Miami Dolphins three and a half.
We had been on monsoon watch for this game. It
looks like the weather is going to be clear. The
line has moved in Miami's direction the past forty hours.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
I don't know why. I don't know if you have
any insights there weather.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
If it's gonna be good weather, that definitely favors Miami.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
But if that doesn't make any sense, because you can't
logically look at these teams and say, all of a sudden,
Miami is a field goal better. You only have to
look at the first eight weeks of the Jaguars last year,
and no, this was a team that was going to
win their division if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
And I think, honestly, that's why we like this number
so much. It feels like too much respect is being
paid to Miami what they did last year, how dominant
and great they were at home. And another thing you
could throw in we didn't even talk about it is
they struggled against good teams, right, Like I think there
were one and seven last year against playoff teams. Yeah,
the Jaguars run a playoff team. Last year. We just
said it. They were gonna be a good team. They're
a really good team. Like if they didn't have injuries
(13:06):
and they didn't fall off the cliff, they would have
been in the playoffs last year. So I'm going to
complete agreeance to chat here. It's just the hate for
the Jaguars has gone too far, and a game of
week both expect will be a shootout. I love the
Jaguars to stay in this game, like everything they do.
I never feel like, even if they're down ten, it
feels like me Chad will get that back towards the
end of the game. So to me, the key number
(13:26):
three and a half, I'm right there with you, Chad.
I would not be shocked this is one of our five.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Yeah, it's so interesting to me if you look at
the Dolphins, no Ramsey, Jaylen Ramsey, no Chubb on the edge,
Christian Wilkins is gone, their defense has no real game changers.
We have Trevor Lawrence to twenty two to one to
(13:51):
lead the league in passing yards, Like we believe in
this Jaguars team, probably a lot more obviously than them.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
It does. Man, I'm putting them on the list.
Speaker 3 (14:03):
Them on the list, just like I'm.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Not saying they're going to be in the finals. But
it's really hard not to consider.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
It's a really nice number with how much we like them.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Our foxhold bet on Tuesday was Vike's.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
At Giants Giants plus one and a half. We've been
talking about the Giants plus one and a half since
the off season when these lines first posted. We have
planted a flag in the sand. We have pushed our
chips in the middle of the table. Like I said,
you and I had dinner last night, we're talking about
all these games. This morning, before I came in, I
(14:44):
listened to Stucky in Raybon on the Action Network pod.
They do their Sunday six pack, which I love. I
like to listen to them because I like to see like,
are they are we on the same side of some
of their games? And we were on the same side
of a lot of the games.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
They love the vikings here. Yeah, you've mentioned this.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
From sharp calls, like in every way we are invested
in the Giants on this one now, I feel like
we're really in a foxhole. We're against Ducky and Rayvaon
and we're against the wise guys. Are you gonna have
to talk me off a wedge?
Speaker 3 (15:18):
No, because I think they're painting as if it's a
perfect world. Where I get it, the Giants secondary is
where you can attack them. What's the strength of this
Vie can see their wideouts right, But it's Sam Donald
at the end of the day, it is Sam Darnald
And like, to me, there's a bunch of things where, yeah,
maybe chat when we're down fourteen to three in the
first quarter, I'm gonna feel like an idiot because it's like,
(15:39):
why did we back this team? But I just can't
see a plane out that way, Like, I just think
Davo's gonna have this team so prepared. This Giants team,
like everything I've read and seen this team. Daniel Jones
has kind of gotten off those early seasons coming back
from big injury. Right, he did not look right for
the first two weeks of camp, but I totally agree
with those people. These last three weeks, he's really put
together a lot of a lot of good camps to
(16:00):
get practices. Then you mix in. I don't think these
enough people are a factor in neighbors, Like he's never
had a neighbors. Like, as much as we want to
praise Saquon Barkley, do running backs move the needle? Chad?
Not for us. Like, if it's a running back going
to do a great team like McCaffrey, that's a big
deal to me and you like we always talk about
how big of a deal that was that Carolina trade
(16:22):
other scenarios, It doesn't really make that big if you're
a bad team. Their running backs not the key. Like,
you need a got on the outside that can win
one on ones, and I think Neighbors is that guy
for this team. Again, Marvin Harrison Junior was not in
this draft, Chad, he would have been a number one receiver,
easily would have been a top five pick. Most likely.
This kid is that gifted. So to me, I still
think not all lough Love's being paid to this Giants team.
(16:44):
The only hesitation for me is their defensive corner who
we respected a lot. He left and went to Ohio State, right,
so that means their defense is gonna be a little
different this year. They bad at pieces Like to me,
their linebacking corps is really good. The fact they brought
in Burns to try to stify someone on the outside
because again already know inside they're great inside the detackled position.
They have one of the best attacks on football, So
(17:05):
you know, to me, it just keeps adding up to
This Giants team got the six wins last year with
Tommy DeVito and good coaching. Now they have a better
rush than they've had in David's whole career there, and
people are selling them. They're just totally out on this team,
and we're getting them as a home dog against Sam
Darnod on the road, a guy who is I don't
remember if I have. I think Evan Sady's four and
(17:25):
ten is a favorite. So it's like it's just all
adding up. We like the trends, we like the team,
we like the matchup. I think the hate, the public perception,
the hate on the Giants has gone too far, and
that's where we're getting such a good number on this
where you know, if this was late in the season,
there's no chance the Giants would be an underdog in
the spot. I think it's just really public public perceptions
(17:46):
really dictating this iron now. And like I said, you
said it too, there's pros on both sides here. So
this is definitely a standoff between the professionals on this
side where the public probably is not having to bet
this game because it's just when you look at the board,
they want nothing to do with this one. And so
these are the kind of games I love because this
really sets up both these teams for the season. People's
opinions on both teams.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
I feel like this also answers so many debates two
years ago. Day Ball and Kevin O'Connell are rookie head coaches. Right,
they both have the kind of years they were one
and two in one score games. It was just a miracle.
Every single week one of them was winning a one
score game. They get to the playoffs. Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins,
(18:28):
Brian Dayball, Kevin O'Connell and the Giants beat the Vikings
at home. Right, Dayball wins Coach of the Year. He's
getting all the accolades. Like you said, like the pendulum
has swung so much. I feel like this is a
really interesting coaching definition game because of what we saw.
(18:49):
Like I have wondered for the past season that Kevin
O'Connell not get enough credit and you're always.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
Like he lost at home in the playoffs to the
guy that we're saying is terrible, it deserves more credit.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
So now both teams stink, both qbs are suspect. We
get a chance to see who deserves any hype as
a coach. I think this is a huge, huge game
for the trajectory of both of their coaching careers. You
talk me back into the house. Yeah, I was on
the ledge. I feel much more confident now it is
our foxhole. I am hyper invested in the Vikings. At
(19:23):
fifteen to one to have the worst record in the NFL,
I would very much like to kick it off with
a positive way. All right, Carolina at New Orleans. This
number is at four. This was my exec decision. The
Panthers may be the closest thing we have to a
consensus pick for the over this season. According to everybody
(19:46):
at the Action Network.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
Yeah, win totals.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
We have expectation busting bets on the Carolina Panthers right now.
They've upgraded the offensive line at both cars a wide receiver,
they've upgraded at coaching. All of the trends that I
mentioned at the top are applicable here.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
One more I'll add for you.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
NFL Division underdogs thirty seven fifteen and one against the
spread seventy one percent in week one since twenty fourteen,
covering by nearly five points per game. Couldn't feel better
about this Carolina vent except for the fact everybody in
(20:33):
the world is now on Carolina.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Well, actually, if you look even in the Action app
the tickets are slanted towards the Saints, but it's the
money is overwhelmingly on the Panthers. Like that's we say
the time, that's professional.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
That's good, right, that's what we want.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
And I think that's why even now I just opened
up to two of the most public sports books out there,
they're both they both have moved to three and a half,
which is shocking, like the books that don't take professional money. Somehow,
we're at three and a half. So it does show
the public yuck. You just said they are starting to
come in on this Panthers team. But like I said
to I think it's just because of the number, Like
four and a half. I felt like it was way
(21:09):
too high. Three and a half feels honestly right like this,
I have this number grade at three, So getting to
three and a half that sounds right to me. If
they got to three, I might be able to be
talking to taking the Saints because that's when the valley
does switch to them. But we're we're getting four and
a half right now in our contest, and you can
still get four and a half at a couple of
books out there. I know our sponsor a bet three
five is at four, but that's a good number, like
(21:30):
to me, this is going to be a closed game. Like,
who do you think is gonna make the mistake here?
I think it's the Saints. Like I have more faith
than Bryce Young playing smart, playing safe, protecting the ball
where Derek Carr he's looking over his shoulder already. He
knows that Spencer Ratler's coming for that job. And even
the fans, the Saints fans are pushing for this kid.
(21:52):
So to me, I feel like Bryce Young is gonna
be playing free and care free in this new offense.
And like, again, we already talked at NASA about it
during his new head coach. We love everything we've read
and heard coming out of the Panthers camp. The question
for us is their secondary. Like, at the end of
the day, they do have one of the worst secondaries
of football people. And I understand why you're like, well,
(22:13):
that's why I'm taking a love is over and that's
why I kind of like the Saints sustaining this game.
But do you like them at this number? That's my
question of people. It's like, in this divisional game, how
do you not take the Panthers that are basically equals
with this Saints team. I know they don't look that
way because the win totals and the pup perception from
last year. But to me, starting fresh with a brand
new season, this isn't last year, right, This isn't this
(22:35):
terrible bums we bet last year in this Panthers team.
This is a new Panthers team with a new identity,
whole new coaching staff. So yeah, to me, we're banking
on a big Bryce Shung bounce back this season. It's
got to start here, like if this guy's gonna wins
our divisional bet, Chad, he's got to win this week
one game. So again, we're gonna get into our money
line around robin bet later on. This is probably gonna
(22:56):
sneak in there for this money line a round robin. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
I think look, when we talk about the Panthers and
the reason why everybody action is so all over the Panthers,
partially because of their luck factors last year and all
the games that they lost, they were in a position
to win because of bad coaching, unlucky turnovers, things that
just happened that over the course of time regress back
(23:21):
for them in a good way. You mentioned Dave Canalis,
people who don't understand when Gino Smith went from sort
of me, you know, wandering quarterback, journeyman quarterback to pro bowler.
It was because Dave Canallis was his coach. Last season
in Tampa Bay, when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman quarterback
(23:43):
to Bucks in the playoffs, Dave Canalis was his coach.
So we're all investing a lot in a regression to
the mean for their luck. We're investing a lot in
what Dave Canallice can do as a coach. We're investing
in improvements on the offensive line. We're investing in Bryce
Young being a little bit better. We're also fading in
a big way. What you just said, Dennis Allen, Derek
(24:03):
Carr truly at the bottom of their respective rankings when
it comes to coaches and quarterbacks against the spread during
their time in the league. I mean, these guys are
awful at this. And you mentioned Derek Carr already looking
over his shoulder. There was a study of a survey
(24:23):
the fan base with the least amount of optimism is
the New Orleans Saints very possible Spencer Rattler is starting
a quarterback for the Saints with a different coach. By
the time we're talking about this, team four weeks from now.
I believe it before Halloween for sure. All right, Arizona Buffalo.
(24:44):
I don't feel like we want to put this one in.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
No skip it.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
I will say that we didn't even talk about sharp calls,
but that was definitely one where if you're a fan
of the show and you listened to us back in May,
I love the Bills. I thought we were getting a
good night. One of the Bills basically got a bunch
of sharp calls bullied me to getting off my position
on that, moving towards Arizona, which people know if they
listen all summer, I do love Arizona. There's too many
questions here, Chad. There's too many questions, and I don't
(25:09):
like how the number has been moving. It went from
five and a half up to six and a half.
Now people are saying, well, if you like the Cardinals,
why don't you just wait and hope to get a seven.
Because I told you guys on Tuesday show, this will
be one of the biggest teas teams. The Bills will
be in a lot of teasers, just like I said,
Seattle and Cincinnati, Well, this is just they fit the profile, right,
So I'm happy with waiting seeing right, we want to
(25:30):
see the connection with with Kyler and Marvin Harris. So
you know, I got no issue sitting this one out,
but I'm with you. It's it's a game where I
didn't think we'd have it as one of our five,
and how as the days have gone along here, it's
just like, you know what, why don't we just say
it and wait and see? On that one?
Speaker 2 (25:43):
Dude? You know it's Marvin Harrison, right.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
Yeah, you know the whole joke right now. You'd never
say the man's name. Why, Well, I can tell you why.
But there's a reason you never say that man's name
like Voldemort.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
I don't know the joke. And now I know what.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
I don't eve want to press Philly, you don't know.
Speaker 2 (25:59):
I don't want to lie. I think I know where
this is going.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Having done some stories on Marvin Harrison, I don't want
to give Matt Mitchell anything. He's got to cut out
Houston and Indy. This was our Simon says. It's now
at three at bet three six y five, so it's
ticked up.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
This is public money. I think this is a game
that's going to go higher.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
We are investing in something that we believe in, not
something we've seen with Anthony Richardson, but that divisional dog
trend that I mentioned earlier in the show that is
in play here, the same one that the Panthers have
the advantage over the Saints the dogs between one and
five and a half.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
That's a check.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Fading the short favorite on the road especially, that's a check.
I don't know, maybe wait until Sunday to say if
we can get a better number, but like obviously we're
going to go with the culture contest.
Speaker 3 (26:53):
Yeah, I don't mind taking the two and a half.
But I think me and you joked last night about it,
right where you were saying, what's your hesitation here? I said,
the kids made seventeen starts since high school. Like Anthony Richardson,
he doesn't have the reps. That's the fear, and that's
why I understand why public the public is coming in
so heavy on Houston alsto. You mix in the fact
the Colts have won what one game and the Week
(27:14):
one in like ten years. I mean, they're one of
the worst teams historically in this Week one, and that's
people playing the trends right. They're just back on their
trends there. What really signaled to me, Chad was his
tweet I saw yesterday. Bookmakers say they have four times
the amount of money right now on Houston. Then they
have colts that this will literally dictate this one game
(27:35):
will dictate their entire Sunday compared to any other game.
If you listen to the show long enough. This is
where I want to be. I want to be with
the books. Even if this doesn't doesn't hit. This is
a long term winner the book. Like we say all
the time, there's a reason all those hotels exist in
Atlantic City in Las Vegas, right the book's long term.
They're gonna win these ones. So to me, when I
hear bookmakers saying they have four times the amount of
(27:57):
money on Houston than they do on any other side,
oh my god, it feels so good. Like that's why
I'm so happy we got the three now. Even in
our contest, if it's two and a half, I have
no hesitation.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
Oh see, I was going to say to you in
the contest, do we feel strongly enough at two and
a half?
Speaker 2 (28:11):
I do, okay, because like all of a sudden, well
this number is not layding on three. Well, I'm just saying, like, all.
Speaker 1 (28:18):
Of a sudden, it could be we're faced with an
option of Jags at three and a half or Colts
at two and a half.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
Honestly, I would go Colts there.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
The closest one I am to being bullied and taken
out of is that Giants game we talked about just
because of respect that half for all these other professionals,
where it's like I get their hesitation with it, I'm
kind of digging my heels in on that one, where
this one it's not so much. I'm just playing the
numbers right like this This one is purely I feel
like this game should be one. Houston should be fair
by one. Maybe I had to pick. The number has
(28:50):
just grown too much. There's just been too much going
on for this summer.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
I have no problem taking the Vikings Giants game out
of our five and not having to sweat that on
Sunday night. Or you know, like we got so many
other games we like and this one we're getting so
many conflicting signals. I kind of want to skip Denver Seattle.
(29:15):
I don't think it's gonna make our I don't think
it's gonna be.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
And especially i've seen a lot of books already shifted
up to the six. For us, I was hoping this
would drop down to five and a half. Maybe we
would get lucky into professional money with coming on Denver.
They're the same view as us. It's a rookie bone
Knicks on the road against the twelfth man and what
we've perceived one of the better defensive minds of football,
so that that money is never gonna shift. This number
(29:40):
is what it is, right It's kind of stuck where
it's at. So I'm agreen swe I just can't be
this being our one favorite.
Speaker 1 (29:45):
We put in Washington at Tampa Tampa three and a
half right now, this one, like all the trends are
sort of leaning in the direction we want them to.
And I've talked about the luck rankings earlier. The luck
rankings are in my head a little bit like I
know everything about rookie QBS and Jayden Daniels and sort
(30:06):
of the trends against betting that. But Baker is fourteen
and twenty six as a favorite, Todd Bowles is seven
and fourteen is a favorite.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Of three or more.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
We have talked about the Panthers a lot because of
the luck rankings at the opposite end of that. One
of the luckier teams last year was the Bucks. We
are fading the Bucks. We like their season win total
under I know Nick Giffen has been saying two fans,
go find a Bucks to finish last in the NFC
South bet. I don't want to put this in the contest,
(30:46):
but I feel obligated to at least finish the conversation.
Speaker 3 (30:50):
Yeah, I have no read on this one, honestly. Okay,
my god, this is the game where I bet props.
I bet Mike Evans over receiving and props. Just because
we talked about bad second arys. Washington is another team
that has a home horrible secondary. So I'm looking forward
to just watching Jaden and Daniels. I didn't want to
put too much money this one because Chad's right, Like,
in my soul, I wanted to bet Baker, especially when
(31:11):
this touch three. This was at three almost all that
yesterday at a couple of books. That's as where I
wanted to be at. I wanted to take Baker at three.
Now this up to three and a half. Yeah, of course,
the better of me is like, why don't you just
take the three and a half with Jayden Daniels like this.
This feels like a coin flip game. I just can't
do it. I can't pull that you're going. There's just
too many unknowns for me.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
Chad Good.
Speaker 1 (31:28):
Now we're narrowing it down. If you are in the
production room, listen to me. Come to camera one because
guess what it is Time for the big.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Balls Better the Week.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Presented by Tommy John. That's right, our big Balls bet
of the Week is presented by our newest sponsor, Tommy John. Listen,
you guys who listened to the first show. You know
how much I love Tommy John. I was trying to
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It is Tommy John. It's softer than other underwear, it's lighter.
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Tommy John has just told us it's time for the
big Balls bet of the week.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
We were gonna make it.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
A different game, and then I just called an audible
because it feels like we are dug in on the
Lions and the wise guys like the Rams, Like we
say these about trends, right, we like these trends when
they're fifty eight percent, sixty percent, seventy one percent.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
We're talking about divisional games.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
But that also means that like five and a half
out of ten, four out of ten, you're gonna lose
that bet. Also, I feel like we're trying to thread
the needle with this Lions team here, and look like
this this could go to four. So I think if
people want to get it, they got to get it now.
Because the juice is on three and a half minus
one twenty, but there's more money on the Lions. I
(33:56):
would have no problem putting in the contest. If we
are looking to put in a favorite. The Lions have
the best three year stretch against the spread since the
Patriots in that twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen range. Jared
Goff twenty five and nine against the spread indoors, Jared
Goff undefeated against the spread as a starter during his career.
(34:17):
Like we do have concerns about the Rams defense without
Aaron Donald, we love the Lions foundationally, offensive line, defensive line.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
I'm not afraid.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
Yeah, this is gonna be to buy far our chalky
is bad, maybe even of this season like this. This
doesn't get more chalky than this. I talked to two
bookmakers yesterday. I asked them, what's your guys viewing this game?
How the numbers look in It's about two to three
times the amount of money right now is on the
lines than it is on the Rams. And that's right, No,
because I view it as I'm not afraid we think
this n we're should be four to four and a half.
(34:48):
It's three and a half, and we have questions right
now about the Rams. We have questions about the Rams
offensive line, We have questions what their identity is gonna
be without Aaron Donald and that young secondary. None of that,
none of that at all with this this Detroit team.
Maybe we do have some questions about the new pieces
they added to their secondary, but I just feel so
confident this offense and I think the argument will run
(35:11):
this ball down the Rams throat, Like that's where we're
gonna see the biggest difference of losing Aaron Donald what
he did in that middle, not just in pass rushing,
but eating up two to three blockers on rushing. Like
this guy was just an animal, and you know, not
the everyday person realizes that, but this guy was really
that important to this team. So you know, the Gibbs
David Montgomery two headed horse we think Detroit has in
(35:33):
that backfield that's gonna set up Laporta and al'mond Saint
Brown Like that, to me is the big difference here.
And we already talked about people know we love this
offensive line. Like the lines, I'd have to go back
and grade it, but I think they're either my second
or number one offensive line head into this season. It's
like this team is so complete. That's why we joked
like they should be the one seed in the NFC,
(35:54):
like it's all there for this.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
It's just hard to say that about the line.
Speaker 3 (35:57):
It's hard to say about the line here in Week
one at home. That doesn't worry in me at all.
So don't think where the chalk is. We do Chalky
picks like this. This is just line up with us.
Speaker 2 (36:07):
Think like we're just saying that to new people.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
Like we've asked people so far to bet on the Giants,
the Panthers, the Colts. We're talking about Daniel Jones, Bryce Young,
Anthony Richardson, who you said has played seventeen games. We
don't have to defend ourselves from making a smart Chalky
pick that is the right pick. You might have to
(36:30):
defend yourself for saying, like for not being afraid of
taking the lines, but being afraid to say, Marvin Harrison.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Like you're playing fire. You don't even know.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
We'll see how it goes when we eventually do our
you know, live show.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
That's what I'm saying. You're going to Philly.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
We're going.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Don't think you know what you're.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
Doing, right, We're going to Philly, all right? Last game
on the board. We want to talk about New York
Jet at San Francisco. Look like, seriously, right, Trent Williams
effect this line was at three and a half, Trent
Williams signs it goes up to four.
Speaker 2 (36:58):
Now it's at four and a half. Yeah, Like that
is rare for an.
Speaker 1 (37:02):
Offensive lineman to have that much of an impact on
a point spread. That's the only reason this thing is moving.
Reminders since the two thousand Super Bowl, the Super since
two thousand season, the Super Bowl losers ten and fourteen
straight up, five and nineteen against the spread when they're
favored by over a field goal, four to nine against
the spread. So like we like the Jets. We liked
(37:24):
him at three and a half, I like him at four.
I like him at four and a half.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
Again, Jad, I hit you with that trend. That's the
big thing. But the biggest sticking point is for me
and Chad, we feel like this Jets team coming in
here is just being undervalued. And that's a simple fact
of Aaron Rodgers has not played football in a long time,
but when he has played, he's played really well. And again,
I know it's been two years, but this team mclee
(37:51):
all agree. This Jets team right here is probably better
than those Green Bay teams from back then. Like they
went out and they did improve this offensive line this offseason,
Like they did go out and get him a number
two receiver on Mike Williams, who is healthy for this game,
we perceive, but even if it's not, they've gone out
and got a rookie receiver. They went out and got
Lizard who I know people think that's a joke, but
Lazarre has a rhythm and a repertoire with Rogers, which
(38:13):
is a big deal of these kind of games. So
the Trent Williams moving this by a point makes total
sense when he is the best left tackle in football,
so he should be moving this line like he did.
But can we all agree, It's just it has not
felt right with this forty nine Ers team now things
that might have got corrected because they do have the
(38:33):
structure there right, They have a great front office. I mean,
people want to knock John Lynch for some of his
first round picks, doesn't really matter when he's nailing all
of his other late round picks. Like this guy for
all his bad you know, Trey Lance picks, He's got
Brock Purdy like this is a home run hit by him,
this guy, So I do want to give him his
flowers and Jed York for stepping up and paying these guys,
(38:55):
which was just bizarro world, not just getting Ayuk or
him in the building. But I think we need appalized
earlier in the season of Trent William's missing camp, i
Uk only being there for a week, Like, come on,
if there's gonna be a stumble for this forty nine
ers team in the season, it feels like it's gonna
year out of the gate, right like this is this
is kind of where it is. And you know, McCaffrey
(39:15):
didn't practice for a month. I know he is back now,
but there's just a lot to pick at where the Jets.
Oh my god, Aaron Rodgers went to Egypt and back
in May like that that's been the knock or Hassan Reddick,
a guy who's never being played on their team, never
showed up the camp. It doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
He hasn't played on the team and on a defensive
line that is one of the best defensive lines in
football already.
Speaker 3 (39:36):
Yeah, and obviously, yes, it'd be much better if he
was there. And they do have a depth issue on
that defensive line, but maybe you know just as good
linebacking corps. I mean, just because Navar Bowman is not
who he was because he's coming back off an injury.
It's like, there is a lot to love with this
Jets team. So if we're just going matchup scheme wise,
they remind me a lot of what that Ravens team
(39:58):
was last year that gave so much trouble to this
forty nine ers offense. And that's really what I'm banking
on here. So another team, Chad that we debated about
putting our money line around Robin because we do love
the money line here. How do you not love the
four and a half right? This game feels like it
will come down to a field goal or a four
point finish, So love it that it's back up at
the four and a half. I know there's a couple
(40:18):
of books out there at three and a half. I
expect once one the public money keeps coming and this
will keep going up to four and a half in
most books.
Speaker 1 (40:26):
You mentioned our underdog money line parlay. We did ask
our sponsor Bet three six five to give us an
underdog money line parlay and odds boost nice this season
and guess what, Because they love us and they love you,
they said yes. So each week we will give out
a two team money line dog parlay. Bet three six
(40:50):
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Speaker 3 (41:06):
My Dog Blucks Your Dogs, Your Dog Blucks mot.
Speaker 1 (41:10):
Dog Your week one boosted underdog parlay that will be
highlighted at bet three sixty five. Get Ready Carolina and
Bryce Young and the Panthers beating the Saints Anthony Richardson
Shane Steich in Indianapolis, Colts beating the Texans in Indianapolis.
(41:34):
The boosts will be featured on bet three six fives soon.
The more listeners who bet these boosts, by the way,
the more picks we can get boosted. Both games are
also eligible for Bet three six five's early payout promo.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
This is one of my favorite things they did last season.
Speaker 1 (41:48):
Your moneyline pick gets marked as a win if they
take a seventeen point lead, even if they go on
to blow the game. So this matters whether you're betting
an underdog or a favorite doesn't matter that team goes
up by say seventeen points, you win the bet.
Speaker 2 (42:03):
Definitely bet it at Bet three six five. I simon
Survivors the Survivor pool pick of the week.
Speaker 1 (42:17):
Seattle or Bengals. That's sort of where I'm landing. But
you got any thoughts.
Speaker 3 (42:22):
If you're in two survivor pools, split them up. Never
put all your eggs in one basket. Cincinnati is basically
the one everyone's gonna bank on to lose because they
figure everyone Joe Public's gonna pick them. But it's also
like this is a this is a nice time to
use Cincinnati, right the historically people are gonna keep pointing to, well,
they've struggled in Week one. Didn't we already talk about that, Chad.
(42:42):
It's like Joe Burrow's never had an offseason, right. He
never every camp He's always either injured or he's missing
days in camp. This year, he never missed a day
in camp. He was there all all camp. The hesitation
with Chase I understand if this was an incredibly tough matchup.
So New England Patriots one of the worst teams we
perceive in all of football, with.
Speaker 2 (43:03):
You know, basically playing a backup quarterback.
Speaker 3 (43:06):
Yes, with a with an offensive line that we view
as one of the more suspect offensive lines in all football.
So I think we will have eventually have a time
where we'll start backing New England in these type of spots,
and we might even put them on our moneylane around Robin. Uh,
this is not that spot right. So for me, if
you want to go really safe, I trust Cincinnati. If
(43:30):
you want to be a little different and use a
team that we don't know when else, we're going to
be able to use them just because their division is
so hard. I like Seattle. Like Seattle we already talked about.
I have a lot of respect right now for the
NFC West. I don't think the Cardinals will be all walkover,
which would be an easy pickt for Seattle and Survivor.
So yeah, for our because we have to pick one
in our for our show. Do you just want to
(43:53):
go SINCEI? Or where do you want to go there?
Let's goin, let's go SINCEY. Yeah. So we're going the
most public pick for Survivor Week.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
One, and we're making a huge public bet on the Lions,
which we are sure we'll get in our final five,
which I'll review at the end of the show.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
Signed.
Speaker 1 (44:06):
We got a couple more segments. Simon's biggest bets right now?
Are you going to place a bet or what Giants?
Speaker 3 (44:13):
The Giants are definitely up there. I would say the
Colts and the Jets. I've just put the most in again.
The Jets i'd been betting for the last month when
I really did think we wouldn't see Trent Williams until October.
Him coming back and his reasonings were coming back. They're
very human, right. He saw his teammate almost lose his
life and it kind of put perspective for him and
he was just like, what am I doing here? Why
(44:34):
am I staying home over a couple of million where
I need to be with my guys. So getting him
back was a big deal. Hasn't really shifted my view
of it. It's like I betted at four and a half.
Now it's back up the four and a half. I
still love it at four and a half. Chad's right though,
like I really love the Giants the Panthers, right, I
started betting them and when they're at six, take me
a five and a half. I've taken them a four
(44:56):
and a half. If you're still late to the port
ay and there's a four out there, I don't mind
taking the four as well. So right now, those are
definitely my three biggest bets. I suspect come Sunday, I
probably will have a lot more on This line's team
is the weekly on along. I've just really loved them
and just how it lays out for their matchup against
(45:17):
this Rams team. So right now, those are definitely my
three biggest bets.
Speaker 1 (45:21):
All right, So now we got to new Scoot Roulette
for those who are new to the show, those.
Speaker 2 (45:24):
Who we're bringing it back, We're bringing it back.
Speaker 1 (45:27):
Bob Scucci, who is a guy that I wrote about
in my best selling book called The Odds, about guys
who were betting on sports for a living. He was
the bookmaker at the start of the Hotel. He was
a longtime co host of this podcast with me when
I started it at ESPN, and then brought it over
when we launched Action. He and I used to play
a game every week on to one on one head
(45:50):
to head matchup. We called it scoot Roulette. Simon and
I have carried on that tradition Scoot Roulette.
Speaker 2 (45:56):
Simon.
Speaker 1 (45:57):
I will let you go first, give me the pick
you want to make. I feel like I know exactly
what it should be.
Speaker 3 (46:02):
You don't. I'm gonna shock people just because we didn't
talk about this game and it's totally off board and
Chad will never see it coming. I'm gonna go with
the homerk pick and take the Eagles at minus two Wow.
In the NFL International Series, favorites are thirty three, ten
and one straight up, twenty nine and fifteen sixty six
percent against the spread in international games. So give me
(46:23):
them Birds. Now that it's under three. I love I
love Green bead three. Now that I'm getting two to
two and a half with this Eagles team, I think
this will this will come down to a field goal.
I'll take the Eagles here.
Speaker 1 (46:35):
Chad Millman, who proudly hails from Chicago here we Go,
loves the city like no other, even though he hasn't
lived there in thirty something years.
Speaker 3 (46:48):
Are you gonna tell us how there's no place like
Chicago in the summer.
Speaker 2 (46:51):
It's greatest city in the world. L this summer.
Speaker 1 (46:53):
I was just there about a month ago. It's the
freaking best. I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus five.
Speaker 2 (46:59):
Oh, God, there we go.
Speaker 1 (47:01):
Evan Abrams. It's time to bring in our buddy, Evan
before we get out of here. He is our director
of research. He's going to give us the final word
on a couple of things that we need to know.
Evan the last word with Evan Abrams.
Speaker 2 (47:17):
We're finished talking.
Speaker 3 (47:18):
What's up, fellas?
Speaker 4 (47:19):
I got two things for you today and I'll start
with this only at the Action Network. Could we have
a game with this month's contention and it be Giants
and Vikings this weekend with all the great games we have.
But if you like the Giants, you probably do because
you have faith in Brian Dables. So Dable is sixty
three percent against the spread and his coaching career with
the Giants that is highest among all head coaches over
(47:41):
the last twenty years with a minimum of ten games coach.
And the greatest part about it, Dabel has had four
different starting quarterbacks. All four are above five hundred against
the spread with the team. Listen to this murderer's row,
Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Danny DeVito, the trash is a
gold mine, and Davis Webb. Brian Dable does an incredible
(48:01):
job with whatever he has so in this situation getting
the point and a half, I can understand it.
Speaker 3 (48:06):
I'll give you one more on Dable.
Speaker 4 (48:07):
So the Giants actually opened as a favorite and looks
like they're going to close as the underdog. That's already
happened to Dable six times in New York. He's covered
five of those six, so he kind of likes the number.
Maybe they lose by one and you get the hook here.
So I knew you guys liked the Giants. I had
to toss in there.
Speaker 3 (48:25):
Yeah, you don't have to worry about that. He keeps
his composure pretty simple.
Speaker 4 (48:28):
Go out there and rip that sound bitch, and then
here's a great one. I found this literally last night.
I messaged Matt Mitchell. I tell him I can't believe
this is true. It's just really fun. So Derek Carr
has won fifty seven percent of his game straight up
as a favorite. Nothing crazy there in his career, about
what you'd expect when he plays as a favorite indoors
(48:50):
perfect conditions. He's actually only nine and thirteen straight up.
That's four games under five hundred in the last twenty years.
Only one quarterback is four plus games under five hundred
as an indoor favorite. That is Derek's brother, David Carr,
who is zero and four straight up in that spot.
(49:10):
You come home, brother, So the Cars nine and seventeen
straight up. I know everyone's on Carolina. I just couldn't
believe it when I saw David's name, But the spot's there.
Speaker 2 (49:27):
Everything he's telling us is giving me so much confidence.
Speaker 3 (49:29):
Oh, you're the best at it. I appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (49:31):
It's almost like I'm almost buoyed. I'm gonna walk out
of here on air. Thank you, Evan Simon. I feel
like we got I see seven games right now that
we've whittled it down that we want to choose from
the games that are still on my list. Steelers three
(49:52):
and a half, Jags three and a half, Giants one
and a half, Panthers plus four Colts.
Speaker 2 (49:58):
If we can get to three and.
Speaker 1 (49:59):
A half, probably two and a half, Lions three and
a half, Jets four and a half. So yeah, either
either we're getting rid of the Steelers and Jazz with
a late entrance.
Speaker 3 (50:08):
I definitely see the Steelers not making it right. I
just don't think we'll ever get that number we want,
but that Jag one is tough, Like I want to
get that in.
Speaker 2 (50:16):
But yeah, after you hear from our guy Evan on
the Giants.
Speaker 3 (50:19):
You gotta to probably that on my dead hands, Like
I'm so in on this Giants team. He's just he's
a great coach and people are just under rating them.
I mean, it's it's ridiculous how much hate this team's goetting.
Speaker 1 (50:29):
All right, So here's how this is going to go.
For people who follow along and are playing in the contest.
Simon and I are going to put our picks in
the contest after the show preliminarily, and then we will
judge it again on Sunday after we do Convince Me
our live show eleven am watching on Action Network YouTube.
Subscribe like to what you're watching now, follow the show,
Convince Me and this and all of our shows in
(50:49):
the Action app. After we do Convince Me on Sunday morning,
Simon and I will put our picks into the app
the Phase five feed. Follow that handle in the app
and you'll see what we areultimately end up with. But
we're probably going to put five in now just to
lock in some numbers and see how things change. As
a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet three
(51:10):
sixty five. This just in new Bet three sixty five
customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when
you bet five bucks. Sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five dollars
to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
(51:30):
and more.
Speaker 2 (51:31):
Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (51:33):
If bet three sixty five must be twenty one or
older in presence in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa.
Speaker 2 (51:48):
Terms.
Speaker 1 (51:49):
Conditions restrictions apply all right Reminder sign up favorites dot
actionnetwork dot com. Not only is it free, not only
do you have the chance to win something from a
prize pool of one hundred thousand dollars, with a first
place prize of forty thousand dollars a second place prize
of ten thousand dollars. Top ten get paid out season long.
(52:11):
You can win one thousand bucks every week if you
finish first. You do not have to pay anything to
enter this the bonus you get to compete against me
and Simon. So every week you can be listening to
us and say, oh my god, I'm smarter than Noose
schmocks because you are ahead of us in the contest.
Speaker 2 (52:25):
Think about that as pure joy.
Speaker 1 (52:27):
Don't forget if you're watching us on YouTube, like subscribe
to the Action Network YouTube page. You can always follow along.
Lines move as we're talking, so it helps to watch live.
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. It's our
Sunday show. Remember we bring back the Sunday shows during
the season. We're going to go over the five picks
we ultimately made. We will talk about the heartbreak, we
(52:48):
will talk about the joy. We will also take an
early look at the lines that get posted. We're off
the air before the Sunday night football game starts. We
will clearly be betting and sweating the lions. I want
to some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,
rate review you subscribe me as five stars.
Speaker 2 (53:04):
Say whatever you want feedback is a gift. Until next time.
Love You.
Speaker 1 (53:16):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
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available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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