3 & Out - Chiefs-Ravens Reaction, Eagles-Packers Preview, Stuckey joins the podcast - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (01:42):
What is going on? Everybody? A JN middlecop that'd beneath
three and ow podcasts Chiefs Ravens. Chiefs win twenty seven
to twenty. It's weird, like I didn't. I felt like
the Chiefs from Dramatic better for a large portion the

(02:03):
game came down to the final play on that final drive.
It actually they could have scored on a couple other
previous plays. Lamar kind of airmailing balls and then likely
makes a great play, but as toe kind of like
Kevin Durant three pointer years ago, toe on the line
and doesn't count Chiefs win. They cover the spread, and

(02:26):
the Chiefs are off and running. The Ravens definitely got
some question marks with that offensive line, which is atrocious,
and football's back. So it was an enjoyable night. It's
just fun. The intensity of the game, the hitting of
the game, the appen of the players on some late hits,
a little too many flags. So we'll dive into the Chiefs.

(02:47):
We'll dive into the Ravens. The new kickoff rule, which
clearly is going to get neutralized as these coaches just
tell their kicker to boot it through the end zone
as Budker was doing tonight. I would imagine we're going
to see that on Friday night and then a lot
more on Sundays to come. But we'll dive into the
Packers Eagles game a little bit. Just a couple of thoughts.

(03:09):
It's Fugazi Friday, so it's not quite a fugazi but
a little incident I had in the sauna that you know,
just you guys can chime in your opinion, fire my
into my Instagram at John Middlecoff if I'm crazy or
if there's just a basic level of respect. I'll tell
the story after we talk about the Eagles and Packers

(03:31):
playing in Brazil. Stucky will join us as he does
every Friday, talk a little college football, talk, a little
NFL stuck. He knows his stuff, man, I mean he
is you knows college you know, he's dropping coordinators that
I've never even heard of, and then we'll break down
some NFL games. A lot of underdogs I like on Sunday.
A lot of underdogs I like on Sunday Week one,

(03:53):
especially Sunday that ten am West Coast kickoff or one
o'clock if you're on the East Coast. It's always there's
always some weird moment. There's gonna be upsets that we
think are upsets, and then as the season goes on,
it might not have been an upset. So I always
think Week one is a little wonky. We got some
big college games as well, so it's exciting. Football is
back and we're just in the swing of things now.

(04:14):
So no mail bag today at John Middlcoff. Fireing those instagrams.
We'll probably do a big one next week, maybe Monday,
definitely Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday range. So keep firing in those dms.
I see a bunch of you already have. But me
and stuck. You talked for like an hour. So yeah,
other than that, subscribe to the podcast. If you listen

(04:36):
on collins Feed, subscribe to the YouTube channel. All of
our content is up there. And yeah, we're off and running.
But before we dive into the football game, I got
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(04:58):
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(05:43):
Chiefs beat the Ravens, and one moment after the first
drive the Ravens scored. Derrick Henry had a nice little
touchdown run. You're like, oh, this is kind of fun
Dereck Henry and Lamar in the backfield. I looked on
the DraftKings app and the Chiefs were a money line underdog.
I was like, should I jump on this? And about

(06:03):
fifteen twenty minutes later, I highly regretted that because, let's
face it, like I understand the score was close, and
the game, you know, in theory was close. I see
a wide gap between these two teams. Now I don't.
It's not like I'm acting like the Ravens are gonna
miss the playoffs, but the Chiefs aren't. Just clearly the
best team in the NFL. Their offense is so much

(06:25):
more complete now. I think everyone's asking themselves when Xavier
Worthy scores that first touchdown on kind of that end
around you go. The Bills really traded with them and
let them have this guy. We talked about it earlier
in the week. Is when you look in at Tyreek
Hill's rookie season. Now Mahomes wasn't there, Alex was, but
he accounted for twelve touchdowns. And obviously once they got

(06:47):
Tyreek to go with Kelsey, it kind of changed their
whole operation, even before they put Mahomes in there, and
then once Mahomes hit the ground run and they started being,
you know, an absolute powerhouse. Well, last year the Chiefs
offense because their skill guys on the outside were not
very good. Yamado Or Lenor told Richard Sherman a couple
weeks ago when they were going to the Super Bowl,

(07:08):
he was begging for the defensive coordinator to put him
in the slot instead of playing outside because they couldn't
threaten you outside the numbers, which was kind of counterintuitive
to the way we always thought about the Chiefs. But
the moment they traded Tyreek Hill, everything changed. Now you
add worthy a legit deep threat. I've listened to a
lot of fantasy guys hammer this home, and I don't

(07:29):
listen I'm not a huge fantasy guy, respected I know
a lot of you people play, but I think sometimes
when you're deep into the weeds, you can overthink stuff
and everyone's like Rashi Rice. They gave him extra targets
last year because they didn't have other weapons. It's like, guys,
did you watch him play? That guy is freaky good. Now,
he shouldn't be behind the wheel of a Lamborghini with

(07:49):
seven of his buddies going nine hundred miles an hour
down a freeway. But you get that guy on a
football field, Like, if you just watched him play, whether
Tyreek Hill was even on the team or not, he
would have been productive. So you add worthy speed threat
with him. They have multiple tight ends. I mean, Travis
Kelsey didn't even really do anything tonight. They have the
best quarterback, Like I think when you watch tonight, you

(08:12):
see the gap between the two quarterbacks. Lamar is one
of the most remarkable players you'll ever watch in any
sport in your entire life. He is a very, very
fun player to watch. But because let's face it, most
teams are gonna have some weaknesses on their offensive line,
and throughout a game, a quarterback is gonna scramble, not everything,
especially the way those two guys play. It's not gonna

(08:34):
be Tom Brady Peyton Manny getting rid of the ball
really quick, or Sean Payton back in the day with
Drew Brees. They're gonna add lib a lot. And when
he add libs, and when Lamar ad libs, he could
control himself of the end of the ad lib and
throw a direct strike. And obviously he can play just
like a game manager. He can throw great deep balls,
he can do it all, but that specifically was a

(08:56):
huge difference tonight when Mahomes was scrambled around. It's been
a huge difference his entire career. It's what makes him
one of the greatest players of all time. He can
throw these perfect strikes that lead to first downs, keep
the chains moving and everyone goes on with themselves. Tonight,
Lamar had two easy touchdowns before the one got called
off and he missed because as a couple of scouts
text me, he's like, why is he panicking so much?

(09:17):
And I understand panicking a little bit because the offensive
line ahead of you is atrocious that you're running for
your life. But once you see the guy open and
there's no one around you. You kind of got to gather
yourself and make a good pass, and Mahomes can do that,
and Lamar, for whatever reason, especially against the Chiefs, consistently
does not. Obviously to Night he ran all over him,
which is something that I still can't get over that

(09:38):
he didn't do in the AFC Championship game. But you
win in this league at the end of the day
by making passes. And like, I don't know if the
Chiefs are gonna win the Super Bowl again, right they
have the best team right now. Injuries can happen. Football's weird.
It's a one game situation. We saw the Patriots dynasty

(09:59):
lose a lot of PA games. Weird things can happen.
But no one's betting against that guy. Why because we
have complete belief if it was flip flopped in that situation,
he's making the pass. Well. I just don't know how
you can have that belief, not necessarily in a regular
season game. Lamar is an incredible regular season player, but
in a playoff game, it just doesn't happen. And for

(10:20):
whatever reason, it doesn't happen against the Chiefs. And I
just when you watch Kansas City their offense, they struggled
consistently last year to get to twenty points, but luckily
their defense is awesome. Chris Jones. I think Chris Jones
is the new Aaron Donald. He's just an unstoppable force.
And he kind of was going like Lawrence Taylor tonight.

(10:41):
You know, like Belichick and Parcels have always told stories
over the years like yeah, sometimes you just kind of
let Lawrence do his thing and he'd be kind of
freelancing back there. Chris Collinsworth was saying it on the broadcast.
Chris would be lined up over a guy and then
he'd be like, screw this, and he'd just go back
over across from the right guard and right tackle because
he knew those guys with the mark and they couldn't
block them. And he was cos and Havoc all night long.

(11:04):
And their linebackers are fast, all their secondary have great
ball skills. They tackle well. It's just an elite defense.
And when you have an elite defense, your team's gonna
be solid. And then I give you the best quarterback
of all time and one of the greatest coaches of
all time, and now you've got added weaponry, like I
just if the Chiefs are on nobody's beating them. It's
not even debatable. But luckily, the great part about the NFL,

(11:27):
even when you have this great team, the regular season
is still fun. Like their regular season games are fun.
I was living in the Bay Area when Kevin Durant
was there. A lot of their games weren't that fun
during the regular seas. It was boring. It did not matter.
Tonight felt like it mattered. Now. Are the Chiefs gonna
try every single week? I don't know. I think they'll try.
Their next game because they're playing the Bengals Atlanta kind
of feels like a classic game. They'll be flat. But

(11:49):
this team right now, I mean, they're just on a
completely different level. They're well run, they have elite players,
the play callings awesome. Their defense and their defensive play
caller are elite. Their special teams like, yeah, I know
this new kickoff rule that Roger you all want us
to do? Yeah, f you, We're gonna boot this thing
out to the chief of Hallock's cousin in the front

(12:10):
row of the end zone. That's what we're gonna do.
We're not even gonna mess with that. So big win
for the Chiefs. Yeah, I mean, they just they handle
the Ravens, they find a way they beat them. But now,
like this game for the Ravens, coming off that AFC
championship game, You've had all off season, all off season
to think about this thing, and it's just like, I

(12:34):
don't know, something's just missing. Like I said, their chance
was last year, their defense is not gonna be as good,
their offensive line clearly isn't as good, and their offensive
line coach died. So we could nitpick Lamar who tonight
kept him in the game with a run around like
he was Walter Payton, which is something he has to do.

(12:57):
But I also think when you play like that, like ultimately,
when Patrick Mahomes scrambles, he's scrambling to throw and it
feels like he keeps his eyes up. Lamar does that
half the time and half the time he's like, fuck it,
I'm gone. Which I don't totally blame him, because he's
such a great athlete and runner in the open field
and he can make guys miss and he's so fast.
But it gets a little chaotic, and luckily they functioned

(13:21):
as a chaotic offense and night he hit that big
play to Likely who made like three guys missed and
scored a touchdown to get him back in the game.
But against the best teams in the biggest spots, you
cannot win like that. It's impossible. You have to win
throwing the ball, and it's hard to trust Lamar in
those spots. And it's definitely hard to trust their offensive

(13:41):
line and you lose Mike McDonald. Clearly the defense is
just not as dominant. It's just simply is not. And
now the Chiefs are better on offense. Because I'm not
judging this Ravens team, like I don't like him as
much as I did last year. Like I wouldn't bet
on him to be the number one seed. But to me,
there's still a nine to ten win team lock right
as long as as Lamar is playing seventeen games. But like,

(14:02):
I don't take them seriously as a Super Bowl contender,
and I don't know like you watching the game, like, yeah,
they'll be in the playoffs, maybe they'll win a playoff game,
maybe they won't. But people picking them to win the
Super Bowl like those days feel behind us now, right
like that that's behind us, Like with this team, and
they got good skill guys. Likely looks like a fantastic player.
I like Zay Flowers. The Henry fits a little weird,

(14:26):
like where it does not help them, Like you can
use Pachaco on screen passes, you can use them in
the rhythm of the offense. Derrick Henry is a guy,
and they're gonna have a lot of leads throughout the
season in these random regular season games. I've said it before,
like to me, they're starting to feel a little bit
like the Houston Rockets with James Harden. And I like
Lamar personally more than James Harden. I enjoy watching Lamar

(14:47):
play football. You couldn't pay me to watch James Harden
play basketball back back in the day when he was supposedly,
as Daryl Mory said, better than Michael Jordan. But it
kind of feels like that, like, yeah, the regular season,
you put up some stats, you're gonna have a bunch
of wins. Who gives a shit at this point in time,
like it truly doesn't matter. You know, you're only judge
in January, and I just don't take you seriously there.

(15:07):
I can't because and it's hard to be a Super
Bowl contender one when I don't trust your quarterback in
big spots throwing the ball and when he's running for
his life because the offense sucks even if he's capable
of running for his life, which Lamar Jackson is. So
I know the score was, it's not like this was
a twenty point blowout, But could you watch that game

(15:30):
and think those two teams are actually close even though
the game was close, Because that's not my takeaway. It's
the opposite. Like I feel the gap between Mahomes and Lamar, like, yeah,
they both got two MVPs. I don't view them even
remotely as equals. Like the gap between wherever of the
rankings of Mahomes being the top quarterback and wherever Lamar
falls three four wherever you want to put him, is

(15:53):
really really wide, like it's Grand Canyon wide gap. And
the other thing is Sean mcvayh talked about it this offseason.
He took Vraybels kind of clock management guy with him.
Wasting timeouts in the third quarter because you're gonna get
a delayed game penalty is moronic. Take the five yards.

(16:17):
We have seen this over and over and over in
the NFL. In college, it's a little bit different because
the clock stops for the first down. But in the NFL,
because basically ninety percent of games are within one score
under six to seven minutes in the game, timeouts are
so crucial. So when you're blowing those in the middle
of the third quarter, you can't have any worse game management.

(16:40):
It's the worst possible game management you can have, and
it's just unacceptable at this point in time, Like we're
not allowed to call timeouts. We will take a five
yard penalty with however many minutes left in a third
quarter to preserve that timeout for an end of the
game situation. And they had one time out, actually they
had none because they had to use it, you know

(17:01):
when the Chiefs run offense. But like that's embarrassing, it
really is, and we nitpick these coaches and stuff, and listen,
it's hard, you're on the sideline. But that's one of
those where it should be like a hard and fast rule,
we will take the penalty. You should be practicing that
in training camp. We cannot blow these timeouts. And I
understand it's week one so you're working out the kinks,

(17:23):
but that seems like a point of emphasis after these
last couple of years, when it's been well talked about,
well reported on. These coaches are just maniacal with that
type stuff in terms of having people do research, like
no timeouts third quarter, when it comes to a delay
a game, let them throw the flag, which tonight I
thought the rest for being a little flag happy. I

(17:43):
mean early in the game, it's like, guys, just let
the game get going. But overall, like listen, Football's football
is weird. Things happen. I mean, we saw Rex Ryan
beat the Patriots. There's no guarantees. The way the situation,
the way the setup of the sport is. You see
it like in the NCAA tournament, in any one off situation,
if this was a seven game series, you know, basketball

(18:06):
or baseball, it'd be it'd be harder to take everyone
else seriously because you're like, the Chiefs are gonna win.
But that's not the case. But it's pretty clear they're
the best team in the league, and they have been
the last two years as Super Bowl champs, and now
they're better. And the Ravens have a legit issue. I
mean the right side of their offensive line looks really
bad for NFL standards. And Lamar can just be Herckey

(18:29):
jerky with some big passes and that's something that clearly
at this point in time, you know, if this was
year one or two, like, he has improved a lot,
but that's gonna be an issue his entire career. And
luckily he's able to make up for it with some
great runs and it's gonna win you a lot of
regular season games, but in the biggest games against the
best teams, especially in January, it's just not and never

(18:50):
gonna work. The other thing that really stood out in
Belichick said two or three weeks ago, what he wanted
them to do is just move back the kickoff spot,
you know, fifteen yards and keep the same kickoff right
with that It's been our entire life, he said, It's
no different than golf. They started hitting it longer, they

(19:12):
lengthen the holes. He's like, clearly, they don't want to
do that, so they tried this. He's like, you wait
when the regular season comes. He's clearly talking to a
lot of coaches. They're going to kick the ball out
of the end zone. And that's what the Chiefs did
all night. Honestly, I was a little surprised that Ravens didn't.
I think the crappy part was because I did enjoy it.
In August, this play is not really going to happen,

(19:35):
and it's going to be interesting what the league office
does to kind of push back, because a lot of
these coaches are like, yeah, we'll just take the ball
to thirty. Who cares. We're not going to risk a
fifty yard open field. Maybe a guy takes the house,
maybe he flips the field position. But any team with
a kicker with a leg strong enough to easily boot
it out of the end zone, I think it's pretty
clear that's gonna happen. So as much fun as August

(19:59):
was and I enjoyed it, I want to watch the
play like anybody because in theory, it does make a
lot of sense having some action on that play. I
just don't think we're gonna get it, and I think
the Chiefs showed us like get ready. It's like we
ain't gonna be alone. So to Grass, the Chiefs one
to zero, Ravens zero to one, and yeah, man, so

(20:21):
we're off and running really quick. On the Friday night game,
Eagles Packers pretty exciting to me. I wrote down a
couple questions for both teams that I think we're gonna
need to see answered. Obviously for the Eagles, two things
really jumped out. Their defense down the stretch wasn't bad,
it was atrocious. And really, when you look at the

(20:42):
stretch in which they were losing game after game, the
Seattle game where Drew Lock led them back with that
game winning touchdown was probably their best defensive effort. Now, granted,
Drew Lock didn't really play that good until the last
couple drives. They only scored twenty points at being Seattle,
but then the last four games which includes the playoff game,
it was twenty five, thirty five, twenty seven, and thirty two.

(21:05):
So they add Vic Fangio. You know, I think the
big question Mark's gonna be can he get those two
big defensive linemen going. They drafted Jordan Davis and they
drafted Jalen Carter really really high, and as the obviously
Jalen Carter was a rookie, but you know, it looked
like he ran out of gas. And obviously Jordan Davis
has battled some weight issues because he's a mammoth man.

(21:25):
And when you invest such high picks in those guys,
you need them to look like I mean, they're hoping
Jalen Carter is like the next Chris Jones, and if
he is, they're in good shape. Because the easiest way
to help out your secondary who you know, was a
little long in the tooth, and and they have some
young guys which you never know, you know, rookie corners,

(21:47):
no matter how talented they are. It's a lot different
than training camp, practice college like we'll see you once
you get to the regular season and playing the Packers
wide receivers are pretty damn good. Easiest way to help
them out is with a great defensive line. And two
years ago when they made this ball, their defensive line dominated,
and Vic Fangio when he's had awesome defenses that one
year in Chicago when Naggie was the head coach and

(22:08):
they had the best defense in the league. They had
a Keem Hicks, they had Khalil Mack, they had Leonard Floyd.
I mean they dominated up front. Obviously, those teams with
Harbaugh and some of those teams when he was with
them at Stanford just dominated up front. So that's what
I'm watching. Can he get those young guys rolling. And
then the other thing is like Jalen Hurts, like we
can nitpick Lamar or whatever, but he's still like, no

(22:29):
disputing he's beaten most teams, right, and that's why he's
such a great regular season player. Jalen down the stretch
of the season, now, whether it's hurt, you know, he's
so kind of cloak and dagger about it, which I respect.
He's not a big excuse. Guy looked like a shell
of himself. He threw five picks like the last four
games of the year. He was not potent, he was

(22:50):
not running. Part of what made him a great player
was the dual threat. Like, ultimately, if Lamar never ran,
he'd be kind of average. What makes Lamar, you know,
borderline elite guy, is this dual threat. At any moment,
he could try to chuck at fifty yards down the
field or he could take off for forty five yards
with his legs, and Jalen just tried, like I'm just

(23:11):
gonna throw the ball. And to me Jalen a couple
of years ago, especially early on in the season, when
he was building the MVP momentum, it was like, God,
this guy's a great runner. He had like a natural
kind of instinct like a running back, and he throws
a great deep ball. And then last year it was
all out of sink. So now you're bring Kellen Moore.
And this is the thing with the Eagles, They're very
dependent on these two coordinators being really good, and historically

(23:34):
Vic Fangio has a very good resume. I think Kellen
Moore is a pretty good resume too, So if they
get those two guys going, not even necessarily for this
game in Brazil, which is just weird in general, but
just big picture, the Eagles defensive line plays well and
Jalen kind of gets back some of his mojo and
doesn't turn over the ball. It's just rapid rates. They're
gonna be good. If the defensive line is not getting pressure, like,

(23:55):
the Eagles are gonna have problems. I mean, I really
think that they can get away with a little bit
if Jalen's off, just because they have so much talent
at wide receiver. But I'm fascinating. I think the Eagles
are one of the more fascinating teams in the league.
And then when it comes to the Packers, it's just
is this real right? Because what we saw that last

(24:16):
stretch of the season was like, this is Aaron Rodgers reincarnated.
That's what That's what the guy looked like. Throwing fucking
babies and darts for touchdowns, scrambling around arm angles. It
was like, yeah, this is what a max quarterback looks like.
And you know, historically in sports in general, we've seen
a lot of flash in the pants. The Packers don't

(24:36):
believe that that's why they extended him. They love the guy,
they love the player, they've been around him for a
long time. But the pressure gets amped up when there's expectations.
Last year, I would say like half the people were
betting against them, like they're not gonna be any good.
Now there are people like me thinking they could be
like a top five team in the NFL. They could
be a team if their defense is good and we'll
get to them in a second, could be like a

(24:58):
Super Bowl contender and the wind blows a little harder
at the top of the mountain. So last year they
got to fly under the radar like you watch Chiefs
and the Ravens. No one's flying under the radar. Every
game they play moving forward like they're getting everyone's best shot.
The Packers like people feeling them out, like no one's
feeling them out. This year, people are coming for them,
right because everyone's kind of annointed them because they earned it.

(25:21):
You know, you win a playoff game, you almost beat
the Niners. Everyone's talking about your quarterbacks, your offensive weapons.
That's a lot of pressure on a quarter That's why
becoming a star player is so hard, because you have
to do it every single year, year after year after
year after year. Like you don't just get to like, oh,
I just had a shitty year like that doesn't really

(25:42):
happen with most great quarterbacks, right, So I'm just fascinated
to watch Jordan Love. I like them. I'm buying the stock.
But like I've we've all been fooled before. So it's
gonna be fascinating to watch them in this light and
a lot of people watching Friday night Brazil against a
talent that he team. But how good that defense is
we'll see. And then to me, I just somehow know

(26:05):
a lot of Packers fans in my life. Their defense
over the last fifteen years, with some of their great
offense has just been their downfall. And over the Rogers era,
their defense let him down countless times post suitable, Right,
the Niners shredded them multiple times, and it's just they
fired their defensive coordinator again for a reason. They hired

(26:27):
Jeff Haffley, who I don't know. He's never been an
NFL defensive coordinator. He's really only been a coordinator at
a big time college for a year, and I'm pretty
sure he was the co coordinator now. He's really well
thought of. Kyle Shanahan really liked him. He coached for
him early on in San Francisco. Obviously, Ryan Day in
Ohio State. He's an impressive guy. That's why he got

(26:48):
the job with Boston College. But they've invested a lot
of high picks over the years on this side of
the ball, and he's an energetic guy. I've been around
him at practice a lot. If he's good, good, and
their offense keeps doing what they've been doing, they're a
legit serious contender. But if their defense is just kind
of what it's historically been, something you can't trust, they'll

(27:12):
just kind of be the Packers what we've seen for
fifteen years, sexy team be in the playoffs and not
really a threat to win at all. So this game
is really really intriguing. These you can't ask for much more. Ravens, Chiefs,
Packers Eagles.

Speaker 3 (27:28):
The first week.

Speaker 1 (27:29):
Okay, before we get out of here Fugazi Friday. Maybe
I'm crazy, but and this isn't necessarily a fougazi. This
is just something that I sometimes I go. When I
go to the gym, I go to the sauna like
a lot of people and I, you know, depending on
the time of day I try to go, you know,
ideally no one's in there. I'll take my headphones, leave
my phone outside and just sit there for twenty five minutes,

(27:51):
listen to a podcast and just kind of close my
eyes and just sweat. And I never understand if someone
else is doing that. When I walk in, I don't
try to talk to them. I just let them be,
even if I don't have headphones on, Like we just
don't communicate. Now, if both you or if there's five
people in there and no one has headphones in, you
might start shooting the shit, talking life, talking politics usually

(28:13):
comes up, their kids, whatever. But if you have headphones in,
you usually leave them alone. And I've ran into the
same two guys like the last three or four times
I've gone, and they both just start talking to me
while I'm laying there with multiple towels over me and
something and earphones in, and it just drives me nuts.
I just don't understand it, Like it's a basic level

(28:34):
of respect. Ultimately, I take my headphone out, I end
up talking, but I don't want to, and I just
I can't fathom that if you walk in somewhere, and
obviously we live in a culture where a lot of
people just have headphones on in general, like if you're
just walking you're going to restaurant, Like if you have
headphones in, especially if I don't know you, it'd be
one thing. If I know you, it's like, oh, James,
what are you doing? Really, what's going on? And you

(28:56):
start bullshiting You don't know them, never never really seen them,
know nothing about them, you started talking to them. I
don't know, man, Maybe I'm crazy, but I just really
like that piece and quiet in that moment where I
could be listening to something in my own head and
just sweating out my impurities and these guys were just
wearing me out. And then both the guys, on separate

(29:18):
occasions today, they both came in at the same time
and it was just, I mean, it might as well
have been Woodstock ninety nine of a conversation. Luckily it
was I only had about ten minutes left, but I
was stuck in there for a while and just had
to take my headphones out and get in on the
conversation because I had no choice. They were just kind
of screaming at me my ideas on different things about

(29:39):
I don't know, I can't even. I mean, it was
just I don't know. I just want to be left
alone in the sauna. Week one is finally here for
the National Football League. We got Week two that it

(30:00):
feels like Week three in college football back again with
my main man, Stucky, Action Network, Big Bets on Campus,
subscribe Action Network podcast All Things NFL. Subscribe to that
as well, and all these lines presented by my close
good buddies at DraftKings Stucky. I guess we'll start with college.

(30:24):
I know we're both junkies for Saturday, Texas Michigan obviously
on paper doesn't get much bigger, but this Michigan team
is in last year's team. Watched that game pretty closely.
President State came to play Michigan's offense. Is you hit

(30:44):
on this? I think last week when we talked not
nearly going to be the same, but their defense is
still pretty stacked and they got DB's for days. I mean,
will Johnson's what a top fifteen pick. They have defensive linemen,
Like to me, when I look at it, obviously Texas
has loaded. They have probably be hide Ohio State, if
not equal to Ohio State and Oregon, the highest payroll

(31:05):
in the country. But Quinn Eewers on the road. Seven
and a half's kind of a weird number. But I
do think it's going to be harder for Texas to
score points than some of the games they'll play this year. Like,
it wouldn't shock me if even if they still cover,
but they win like twenty five to ten or twenty
seven to ten. The over unders forty two and a half.

(31:26):
I think Michigan, I think their defense is gonna work
this year. Like they're not. They're more likely to be
like nine and three, but not really feel like a
playoff team. Now who knows, I mean, depending on how
it all shakes. But that defense is just going to
translate all season long.

Speaker 3 (31:42):
Yeah, the last week it was ugly on offense. Last
week the defense, I agree with you. They have one
of the better defensive lines in all of college football.
And then you have a first round draft pick at
corner and Will Johnson some other pieces in the secondary,
there are still some questions, but it's an elite defense nationally.
The offense, it's rough. I mean, they didn't really address

(32:06):
the wide receiver spot in the portal. Those guys, they
couldn't get any separation last week against Presno State. Presido
State has a decent secondary and a good secondary from
Mountain West terms, but I mean they lost a corner
to the NFL. They lost a linebacker the NFL as well,
and they couldn't get any separation. I think the receivers

(32:27):
had like three catches for less than twenty arts. Colson
Lovelin's a great tight end. He's gonna I mean he
had I think eighty of like their one hundred and
twenty passing arts. But the offensive line we talked about
last week. They lost six guys to the NFL. Obviously,
lose your quarterback to the first round. Davis Warren looked rough.
The offensive line looked rough, the wide receiver room looked rough.

(32:51):
Blake korm isn't there any longer in the backfield, and
Donovan Edwards is explosive, but you know, isn't the best
running back just on a down the down basis from
an efficiency standpoint, So this offense is going to be
a work in progress all season long. You know, Alex
Orgie can't really throw the ball. Can bring him in

(33:12):
for some running packages, Davis Warren, he couldn't really throw
the ball. So yeah, it's gonna be tough sledding for
this Michigan offense. Maybe they were playing a little you know,
rope it over and they weren't showing much.

Speaker 1 (33:29):
I do think President State's probably a top five, top
tenish non Power five program and that that game is
their super Bowl, so that they were bringing it. But
you're right, I mean the quarterback play, it's just going
to be an issue.

Speaker 3 (33:42):
Yeah, there was, And I just don't know if they
have any recourse to when teams load the box and
say we're just going to take away the run. I
would imagine Michigan wants to win this game via it
going under. They want to come out, they want to
run the ball. That one of the biggest questions with
Texas is they lost Sweat and Murphy up front, and

(34:04):
they're obviously not gonna be the same. But how much
is that drop off We'll find out this week. I'm
just not sure if the Michigan offensive line they are
clearly not the same as well can fully take advantage.
But I'm sure Michigan's gonna come out here labor really slow,
lean on the ground game, you know, use Orgy in
some packages, try to set up the platch and maybe

(34:24):
take some occasional shots. But it's it's hard for me
to see them really having an efficient day at the
office from an offensive standpoint. But they're gonna bring the
They're gonna bring, They're gonna bring blitz swing Martindale. Their
defensive line is really good, and quinn Ewers can be
thrown off a bit when under pressure. You know, his

(34:46):
footwork falls apart a little bit. Kenny hit some of
those downfield shots and not make mistakes. That'll probably be
the key to this game. This line, the look aheadline
was three and a half, and now we're up over
a touch down. The Unders also taking a ton of money,
so I agree with both movies, but now you're you're
really paying a premium for Texas. I wouldn't la seven

(35:08):
and a half in the game I think is going
to be low scoring. Maybe A's had bit of value
still on the under based on how I see it
playing out. But you know, if Michigan. Just if they
fall behind, it might be lights out. They got to
get a lead or stay in this throughout because they're
just not going to be able to throw the ball

(35:28):
with any type of consistency against the league competition. I'm
with you.

Speaker 1 (35:32):
I think they translate against a lot of the Big
ten teams, but Texas tough matchup for him. Were about
to look aheadline because when I looked at NC State Tennessee,
I mean NC State was top twenty five team in
a good program. Do you think that that Tennessee is
minus nine and a half on the road. Do you
think a lot of that is Obviously the buzz of
this young quarterback Tennessee has, is it safe to say?

(35:56):
I mean, he's definitely probably the most talented quarterback. I
guess the dude they had last year had physical attributes,
but this guy's an actual good player. I mean if
he hits. I don't know if their team's good enough
this year, but over the next two years, could they
be like a national title contender? Obviously they recruit well.
That line's pretty big though for a team going on

(36:18):
the road nine and a half. What's your take on that?

Speaker 3 (36:22):
Yeah, the look at the line here was like four
and a half four four and a half, which is
where around I made it. So now that this line
has gone up, that's the hardest part of it. In
college football, it's a lot more difficult now in the
first two weeks because of such extreme roster turnover, and
in some case you also have extreme staff turnover. But

(36:43):
now with the transfer portal nil, you have just rosters
that look completely different, look and sometimes they hit, sometimes
they don't, and you have to decide, Okay, do I
overreact or underreact to you know, small sample sizes one
data point for example, we saw that with Florida State

(37:04):
didn't look great against sort of Tech. Well, guess what,
it turns out that they're just not very good. That's
a team that gets downgrade at a ton NC State
didn't look great against an FCS team Tennessee did. How
much is that upgrade or down grade? So I did
play some NC State, but I could just be way
off on Tennessee and should be upgrading them way more

(37:25):
than I did, and should be downgrading NC State more.
NC State did have They lost Peyton Wilson to the NFL.
He was the linebacker of their defense under Tony Gibson
is one of the better defensive coordinators of college football.
Very complex defense can confuse young quarterbacks. It's a good
test for Nico, although he passed it with flying colors.
It was a bowl game, but against the Iowa defense,

(37:46):
he looked spectacular. But they lost their replacement to Wilson.
On the first drive of the game, he dropped a
pick six and then he was thrown out for targeting
and his backup was bad. He had all kinds of
blown assignments. They also weren't playing with their nickel. We'll
be back this week. He's the nickel and Tony and
his defense is just critical. They asked the nickel to

(38:08):
do so much. And it's a kid who transferred in
from Ohio State and before that Syracuse so and Grayson McCall.
He looked dense. State weapons are much better this year.
You know, running back at wide receiver Concepcion is back
as well. He's their number one. McCall just looked off.
He did start to pick it up in at quarterback

(38:29):
in the fourth quarter, so I think that there was
just some rust there. New offense, So I expect the
NC State offense to be better. Tennessee yes, they could
compete for a national title next ol days. Their secondary
is a major question mark. We're going to see if
NC State is able to get any push because they
got to get the RPO game going with McCall and
his legs and waters in order, you know, to take

(38:50):
advantage off the play action of that Tennessee secondary. The
Tennessee secondary lost three guys in the NFL, three guys
to power four teams in the transfer portal. That's their
prime weakness. So I did take SANC State, but it's scary.
I could just be way off a NC State won't
be able to keep up, and this NC State defense
does indeed take a step back. And it is worth

(39:11):
noting it's not a true road game. It's in Charlotte,
so it's not on campus. I would imagine, uh, you know,
Knoxville to Charlotte. It's like, I don't know, three and
a half.

Speaker 1 (39:25):
Four hours, yeah, drivable.

Speaker 3 (39:27):
Yeah, So I would imagine it's you know, maybe sixty
forty split in the crowd. Yeah, you'll you'll see a
big Tennessee contingent there. So it's not as great as
a normal home field advantage would be, but we'll definitely
learn even more about Miko there. There's been plenty of
times in the past against a Tony Gibson defense that

(39:49):
we've seen, you know, young quarterbacks make critical mistakes against
this defense, getting confused about where the pressure is coming
from the three three five where it's not so if
he has a clean and goes off and look out
the Tennessee team, but even makes some noise this year
back into the defense probably holds them back from you
know that true, you know, next level, but he's the

(40:13):
real deal.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
Yeah, I mean, I think how many friends some of
these guys accumulate. You just said that Syracuse Ohio State.
I mean, you've been on three programs. It's it's pretty nuts.
That's a lot of moving around. I know a lot
of people just non athletes transfer colleges, but it's pretty rare.
Three schools and like a four year span. That's that's

(40:36):
just the modern day football. I mean, shit, you look
at Oregon you talk about data points, It's like, what
do you make of that game? We all know they're
really talented and they had a bad fumble, they missed
a field goal, but still, like you would think just
they would be able to score running the same five
plays over and over forty points with their eyes closed
against Idaho. Now they're playing Boise, who's running back just

(40:57):
went for like eight hundred yards and fifteen touchdowns, and
Boise a little like a I mean a lot like
a President State, the better version of just they take
these games seriously and historically now that I would say
they've had better teams, they've beat Oregon a bunch. So
it's not like this program I mean different people, different coaches,
but is intimidated in these type environments a lot like

(41:20):
North Dakota State last week against Colorado, they kind of
lived for this shit. So I mean, getting twenty points
now you also go the other way like I would
imagine landing. This week has been pretty intense at the
Oregon practice and just the meetings. This probably hasn't been
a fun week on campus for those players. But to me,

(41:41):
this is a game like Nebraska Colorado. Both teams took
care of business. Colorado obviously has defensive efficiencies, but we
just got two teams confident coming in now and the
better team. To me, I like Nebraska in that spot.
But this is this is a weird spot for Oregon.
They're either going to answer the bell or maybe something's
a little off.

Speaker 3 (42:01):
Yeah, it's a I did this look at line was
like twenty four and a half. It got down to eighteen.
I took some Oregon, you know, I thought the market
overreacted a bit. They you know, it was it's the
first game, new quarterback, new transfer pieces on defense. They
also didn't start their starting right guard who should be

(42:23):
back this week, which meant that they shifted their center
to guard, and they had a walk on starting at center.
So the offensive line, and they also flipped tackles. You know,
their tackles are really really good, but they flipped positions.
I'm curious toe if they go back, because it didn't
look like Cornelius was as comfortable on the other side.

(42:44):
I'm curious to see how their offensive line chicks out
because that was probably the most disappointing part for me
watching that game back now, it was still a super
bizarre box score. I mean, they had like five hundred
yards of offense. Gabriel threw it like forty nine times
for four hundred plus yards, and the game was what
seventeen fourteen late. It was very bizarre.

Speaker 1 (43:03):
They did hit two touchdowns on trick plays, right.

Speaker 3 (43:06):
Yeah, yeah, trick plays. Oregon had some killer penalties and
didn't didn't get you know, a couple fourth downs, so
there was a little misleading, but still a bit worrisome.
They also, you know, their two star linebackers barely played.
I would expect them to play close to a full
workload because they were dealing with just some minor injuries.
So I think the only played like uh Bassa and

(43:29):
Jacobs only played like twenty five combined snaps. So yeah,
I would expect Landing to have them super focus here.
It's also not a great just situational early season spot
for Boise because you know, you went on the road
in a very bizarre game. Just scheduling was he went
on the road to Georgia Southern to start the year

(43:52):
in that heat and it was humid, and there were
the cramps late and the defense was on the field
for eighty five plays, and now you're going to your
second straight road game in Eugene, and you know you
got to deal with that Oregon offense. Oregon meanwhile staying
home in the friendly confidence with their second straight home games.

(44:14):
So like from a rest and situational advantage, that all
goes I think to Oregon who I think you should
get a focused eff and this Boise defense is as holes. Yes,
they brought everyone back, but the defense wasn't that good
last year, and you saw that last week. I mean
Georgia Southern, who had questions on offense with a kid,

(44:35):
a new quarterback, JC French, and they put up forty
five points and all kinds of offense. So yeah, this
is just gonna come down Oregon. You know, Landing's gonna
They're gonna key on genty. How many runs can he
break against the defense? That's basically just gonna say, look,
we can cover your guys one on one and we're

(44:56):
gonna just make sure that we take away genty. Well,
how many runs can he still manage to break on
his own? That's probably what this comes down to. The
interesting angle too, is like, well, Oregon try to pile
it on late or you know they have bigger fish
to fry. You know, they know they're going to make

(45:16):
the College twelve playof blah blah blah. Because I would
assume that Boise's going to try very very hard until
the final play because this game and just the final
score matters, will matter for the collegewell playoff committee, if
it's a decision between say Boise and Liberty. We saw

(45:38):
Liberty losing the bowl game to Oregon forty five to three,
and they don't have it, they won't have a data
point this year where we can say, Okay, they improved
their roster, now they can compete with the big boys.
This is a data point where they'll compare Liberty to
Boise State directly playing the same team. So to have

(46:00):
just how that game looks, the final score looks at
the end of it is important. So maybe keep that
in mind for Boise second half or because I'm sure
that like they don't, they would much rather have this
end fourteen than twenty eight. It just would help with
the optics.

Speaker 1 (46:17):
Yeah, okay, last game before we get into the NFL
Colorado Nebraska. Obviously Colorado got or housed him Lastuarly Nebraska's quarterback.
I mean, oh yeah, it was a joke. Well that's
completely changed. I looked yesterday. They lost. They went five
and seven four of their They had four out of

(46:38):
five losses by three points. I mean they lost I
think three games ten to thirteen, Yeah, thirteen ten, three
or four times? Yea, Yeah, they lost thirteen ten I
think twice in another game twenty to seventeen, or maybe
thirteen to ten, three times another one seventeen to twenty,
and their quarterback play was a joke. So the Colorado

(47:00):
really has skill guys, but that defense, let's face it,
probably it's not very good. I kind of like Nebraska
big in this game, you know, considering, you know, getting
seven points at home in that place nuts, But you're
also dealing with essentially a rookie freshman quarterback. You never know,
you're not gonna You're gonna have some weird moments, even

(47:20):
a weird half. If you have a great season, that
makes me a little nervous. But is this a tough
spot and last year rule it's an easy one to
get the troops going, right, we got fucking embarrassed. Who
you like in this game? Because this I would imagine this,
It's crazy to say, but probably right there with Texas
Michigan in terms of interest in people watching, right, Yeah, I.

Speaker 3 (47:40):
Mean this Colorado team, they draw eyeballs for sure, So
I you know, I would lean Nebraska now that this
is over a touchdown touchdown or better. I like Nebraska
at home. You mentioned a quarterback, major upgrade last year
could even snap the ball. I mean they were just
giving the ball to Colorado. And you know, the offensive
line is good, The quarterback is just significantly better. Running

(48:02):
backs looked good last week. The defensive line is really good,
just that entire defensive front. The problem is, like Colorado
still is a ton of talent at wide receiver and
obviously at quarterback with Shador so like they can not
only backdoor, they can just keep up hit explosive plays.
The underdog in Colorado games, you know, whether they're their
favorite or not. I mean, has hit I think Dion

(48:25):
has been there for third what's been there for thirteen games?
Games thirteen? I think the underdog is cast in ten
or eleven of those. But this Colorado team, to me,
like Nebraska, is much better overall, and they've and a
lot of that is because they really upgraded a quarterback.

(48:46):
The Colorado team, to me is looks like the same
team to me as last year. Right they tried to
go into the portal and fix some of their issues.
The offensive line still looks like a problem area. They
don't have a run game. The defense still looks like
I mean, the defense was just so undisciplined last week

(49:07):
as far as making adjustments to very simple concepts that
North Dakota State was running over and over and over again.
They just couldn't get stops. And then North Dakota State
team lost some key players from last year. They also
were playing with out their All American stafety is going
to play in the NFL. So yeah, Colorado just the
defense has major holes. The offensive line. It's basically like,

(49:30):
can they just keep up? Right? Can they keep up
with Tador and throwing to all of those great receivers.
It's not just Travis Hunter. You know, they brought in
Western and I forget the kids the top I had
to the other kid was the leading receiver last week.
It was really good Horn from last year. So yeah,
that's just like can they keep up? How often can

(49:52):
Nebraska's defensive line get home on Sanders cause negative plays? See,
he will take some sacks. That's probably what determines if
this gets out of hand or not. But it's always
scary because if you also look back at Colorado last year,
in a number of their games, if you look at
their scores, you'll see a bunch of games that were

(50:14):
much closer than they actually were late in the season,
because they just would you know, the other team would say, okay,
we're up three touchdowns, and then Colorado with their talented
offense receivers and score a couple of touchdowns late. And
you know Dion who obviously was trying I think he
was trying to pad. He was Tudor's stats at the
end instead of taken a knee, could have taken a knee,

(50:36):
pulled a Mario throwing bombs late and north to go
to state. I almost made him pay for that. That
would have been national storyline this week. So you know
he's not going to stop. So that's another scary aspect
with this line over seven and a half, so probably
a pass for me, unless you know, with with Colorado,
you probably want to wait a bit, like there's going

(50:58):
to be a wave of the public money that could
have a potential. Say so it's at seven and a
half now, so if you like Nebraska, wait see if
you know there's some money that comes in on Colorado
and it gets down to a touchdown or last. In
that case, I'd be more inclined to bet the corn Huskers.
But where the line's at now, probably a pass. Just

(51:19):
sit back and enjoy the game.

Speaker 1 (51:20):
Yeah. I did a little research during training camp with
my NFL buddies that were going through I'm like, is
North Dakota State like, this is one of their better teams.
They're like, actually, it's the opposite. This is not as
good of a team. So that maybe as the season
goes on, we look back and go, well, North Dakota State,
which is a great program, this is not like one
of their just house everybody squads, which is reflective of Colorado,

(51:42):
which is not ideal. Big picture, as they get to
the Big Twelve, it's a big game because if they
get housed that they could be in it could be
another challenge to get to that Bowl eligible when city.

Speaker 3 (51:54):
Yeah, what you bring up a good point with North
Kota State. South Dakota State is a new North Dakota State.
Like North Kota State lost. I still think they're the
second and third best teams. But they lost four games
last year. So it's not your older brothers North Dakota State,
and they have a their their lock pro on that
team didn't play. He's out for a bit there with Snowski.
Their safety and there's the thing that a lot of

(52:16):
people don't talk about enough is in this new nil
transfer portal world. I you know, you have all the
teams at the top, it's I think you're gonna are
gonna start to all get richer. So it's not I
don't think there's gonna be like super teams like You're
always gonna have the teams that can recruit best and
hit the transfer portal. Your Georgia's, Ohio States Organs that

(52:37):
are probably gonna be a step above. But I think
the gap will actually close a little bit, you know,
with your Tennessee's right, then you're gonna have more just
more parody, and it's gonna look like an NFL with
all the teams. But then the gap between the next
set of teams grows, and then the bottom follows even more,

(52:59):
and then you have to Then FCS is the next step.
What's happening to all the best players on FCS? Is
there coming to FBS teams and group of five teams,
you know, getting that nil money. And then you see
this with some lower level you know team, some teams
in the MAC and Conference USA and these FCS teams.

(53:19):
So where do you have to go to replenish those players?
You got to then start tapping more into JUCO more
into D two and D three, so the quality of
those rosters is going to drop. Small sample of one weekend,
but look less Saturday, the last weekend. Week one FCS
teams went zero and sixty straight up. Now a lot

(53:40):
of them are huge underdogs, but most seasons you see
a couple outright upsets in week one, especially against non
Power five teams. So I think that gap is growing.
North Dakota State is one of like, they're not as
good as they were a couple of years ago, and
that's part of it.

Speaker 1 (53:55):
I think you nailed it. I saw Kirby say, I
think during training camp, he's like, our team's not as
deep as it has been in years past. We're as good,
but we're not as deep. And you look back to
some of those great Alabama teams, some of the urban
Ohio State or Florida teams you couldn't transfer. So I
had a guy, even if he wasn't playing, that would
start on ninety nine percent of the other teams. And

(54:17):
now these guys, let's face it, they get just dirty,
recruited and called by their buddies through the coach and
they leave. So you have but they go. I leave
Georgia I still go to Ole Miss, right, I'm not.
So it's bringing up those next teams Georgia, Alabama, right, Ohio,
Michigan in theory are still better, but then that next

(54:40):
group is closer, and then there's just the gap between
that those first two tiers and everybody else. It's why
when you look at the projected playoffs, it's gonna be
the same teams over and over, and it's just gonna
come down to you hit on the quarterback. And if
you don't hit on the quarterback. Like to me, Clemson,
their quarterback sucks. If I gave them Nico, they still

(55:00):
lose to Georgia probably, but they look a lot better.
So you know, look at Nebraska, like we just talked about,
they lost all these games by combining like fifteen points.
Now they got a quarterback, they might win all those
games and be nine and three or you know, it's
like it's kind of become the NFL. Right, if I
removed Daniel Jones, give them to Andy, and give Patrick
Mahomes to the Giants, I think we'd all picked the
Giants to fucking make the playoffs, right, So it just

(55:24):
the quarterback play, which I would say most of our
life in college football. Think how many great teams had
guys that were never gonna sniff the NFL because you
just have a loaded roster. Well, I think those days
are kind of over. It's like, if we don't like Michigan, whye,
quarterback play sucks. We've seen a lot of times teams
go ten and two or eleven and one with bad
quarterbacks right in the nineties, in the two thousands, those

(55:46):
days are over, I mean done.

Speaker 3 (55:49):
Yeah, I agree, And it's look at the point you
bring up about Georgia like that can look at Kentucky,
a team that's like on that step below. They're quarterback
was a former five star who was the backup, didn't
win the competition against Carson Beck, and now he transferred
as starting for Kentucky. Now Kentucky, Georgia comes to Kentucky

(56:13):
next week. Interesting storyline. They also had a starting linebacker,
Dumus Johnson, was a potential All American who transferred to
Kentucky in the offseason. Georgia has, you know, just awesome
young linebackers and they were probably like, look, I can't
guarantee that you're gonna start. So he said, all right,
I'm gonna go get paid and go start for Kentucky.

(56:33):
So yeah, those upper teams aren't like Georgia aren't as deep.
And you know you mentioned quarterback play. That's the difference,
and that might we'll see if what Howard can do
at Ohio State, because maybe that ultimately holds him back
from winning a national title. The quarterback play in the SEC,
especially this year, is just on a different level than

(56:56):
the rest of the rest of the conference is throughout
the country, and that is probably the differentiator, Like the
main thing if I had to look at all these
different conferences in college football, like take the Big Ten
and you know an allur look great and you have Gabriel,
but the rest of the quarterback plays very underwhelming. Yes,
you see there are a ton of wars. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (57:30):
When I look at the NFL board, you know Week
one is always tough. We always get weirdness. It just
feels like, how do you not hammer the underdogs historically?
I know, you know the numbers, how do we how
do we attack this? Just big picture, Yeah, I.

Speaker 3 (57:47):
Mean week week one, it's it's gonna be weird. There's
also the new kickoff rules. You'll never know if like
the NFL has new points of emphasis, and you know,
they'll be like a huge uptick in one penalty type
and a lot of times you just see that like
really early on in the season. Then they kind of
don't emphasize it as much later in the season. And

(58:07):
just like in college football, there's there's roster turnover, there's
coaching changes, so you'll see schematic differences, there's you know,
and historically in recent seasons, unders have dominated so lower
scoring games. I think part of that is like defenses
are generally ahead of offenses early in the season, and
more and more you don't see quarterbacks playing in preseason

(58:31):
sometimes at all. And I think there's two matchups this
week where neither quarterback played in the preseason Browns Cowboys
and Rams lines And historically, if you look, there is
just a little tip down in production right out of
the gates in game one of quarterbacks who didn't play
which in preseason, which makes sense, like it's here's your

(58:51):
first game action, right, So unders and then yeah, underdogs
historically have ruled the day. I mean, just to throw
a couple of stats out of there, road underdogs in
Week one that did not make the playoffs in the
previous season, for example, Carolina, Tennessee Arizona ninety fifty nine

(59:14):
and five against the spread since two thousand and three,
and then divisional underdogs have just absolutely crushed it. Looking
at Indianapolis Carolina again, thirty seven fifteen and one against
the spread since twenty fourteen. That's over seventy percent, sixty
percent over the past twenty season. So yeah, underdogs tend

(59:38):
to be a bit undervalued. Teams aren't as bad as
the market bought from the previous season, and unders have
ruled the day. Doesn't guarantee future results, and you know,
there's it's one week at small sample size, weirdness happens.
It's it's the first week, so don't go crazy. But
that's that tends to be my starting point of what

(01:00:00):
I'm looking for is, Okay, what games are gonna be
lower scoring and why, and which underdogs might be a
bit undervalued, And that's kind of where I start. Like
an under that I really liked, it's come down a bunch.
But Cleveland Dallas, you look at those those two teams.
Number One, it's gonna be outside. Dallas's offense not the

(01:00:21):
same when they're not at home, and they're not a
big front runner but they now have offensive line questions.
Their running back room is much worse. They have one
really good receiver, but the Browns have three really good corners.
They can shade a safety over to Lamb play Man.
Their other two cornerbacks besides Ward are awesome and Man,
they can take away their other wide receivers a little

(01:00:44):
bit to worry about the running game. And the Cowboys
offensive line starting a rookie at left tackle going up
against Garrett Questions at center. Other side Cleveland, I mean, Watson,
what are you gonna get there? Yeah, I mean Dak
and Watson haven't played in the preseason. Their offensive line
Will's and conkline. I'm not sure either even gonna play
a tackle. So they have offensive line questions going up
against a very good Dallas defensive front with their own

(01:01:08):
running back issues due to injury. And you know you're
gonna you could have wind to outside. So I think
that will be throwing the potential quarterback Russ. That'll be
a lower scoring game than the market assumes. I think
both defenses can rule the day there, but yeah, unders
and underdogs. It's generally where I slant toward in Week one.

Speaker 1 (01:01:30):
I like Dallas in that spot, mainly because I'm just
so out on Watson, and like you said, not only
has he not played, but unlike like Kyler didn't play,
but Kyler's completely healthy, Watson didn't play because it's like
he's had this kind of weird injury the rehab and
they've kind of been, you know, kind of cloak and
dagger about it, and now they're.

Speaker 3 (01:01:50):
Is he even fully healthy? It's very hot what's going
on there?

Speaker 1 (01:01:53):
Yeah, it's it's bizarre like Dak doesn't play because why
would he. They wanted to get Trey Lance a million
snaps Like I to me, if you just go, okay,
Stefanski and McCarthy pretty pretty equal, cancel each other out.
Cowboys have a massive, massive advantage at quarterback the way
I look at it coming in and you talked about
the divisional games with underdogs, you know, Indy it obviously

(01:02:18):
played them tight last year. I love the Texans this year.
I you know, CJ. Shroud MVP Texans, number one seed
Texas to win the division, Texans to win the conference.
I think there's if you like him, you can go
all in on a lot of different angles with them.
But this game's in India. That places nuts. There's no
coaching turnover, right, So I mean these teams have a
good same thing with Carolina and the Saints. Again, I

(01:02:42):
like the Saints this year to win that division four
to one. But Canalis, while he's a new coach, he
does come from the division. So last year he game
planned against Ennis Allen's defense twice. So it's not like
a non common opponent for a new coach, right. So
that's because I've heard a lot of people and I
would imagine you probably like Carolina three and a half.
I think the numbers even come down, Like I think

(01:03:04):
I looked three or four days ago, it's like four
and a half, and now it's at three and a half.
People are hammering Carolina. I don't like Carolina at all.
Like if I had to bet on who's gonna get
the number one pick, I actually think they're right in
the mix with the Pats. Now maybe it turned out
the Pats are just worse, but it feels like a
lot of people are gonna hammer Carolina in that game

(01:03:25):
against the Saints. I would imagine that's especially for like
the Sharps and the guys that truly bet. One of
the higher bet games of the of the week one,
don't you think.

Speaker 3 (01:03:35):
Yeah, I would agree, but maybe you're right, and a
really good year last year on the show.

Speaker 1 (01:03:40):
Maybe it's the quarterback. It's the quarterback.

Speaker 3 (01:03:42):
He looks twice young Kenny Kenny be somewhat service Well
that's the big question here. But yeah, I mean I
do like Carolina. Shop around. There's still some fours out there.
I need four or more. And you want to talk
about just throw out some trends. Dennis Allen is a favorite,
not gonna go his whole career eight and seventy eight
and since the number but if if young is a

(01:04:06):
disaster again and throws picks and pick sixes. But yeah,
the reason I like Carolina is you look at both
these both these teams last year, and I mean Carolina
was obviously a mess. They never led in the fourth quarter.
I mean, I don't only know how that's impossible, I
don't know if that's how that's possible when you win
two games. But they won two games on the final
play of without ever leading in the fourth quarter. So

(01:04:27):
but they really did upgrade their offense from a staff perspective,
to start off right, you're gonna stay were one of
the lowest teams in the NFL in terms of both
pre stop motion and play action, so you'll see much
more both. That's what you need for a young quarterback
who's obviously not Patrick Mahomes. You need to help them
out with some pre stop motion. You need to help

(01:04:48):
them out with play action, and you need to help
him out by getting him outside the pocket. Boot him out.
And because he's not he's not tall enough to sit
in the pocket and throw against NFL defenses. So you're
gonna see a lot more boots, jet sweep motion, a
lot of the stuff the forty nine ers run, and
you'll see a lot more like the forty nine ers

(01:05:09):
motion play action. So all that will help young and
he just can't be any worse than he was last year.
I mean, that's impossible, impossible. So year two, you'd expect
just a little bump, experience bump, and the pieces around
him did get better. You upgraded at center with Austin Corby,
who was hurt last year, taken over for Bozeman. You
brought into high profile guards. The guard position last year

(01:05:31):
for Carolina was a disaster, the worst in years in
the NFL. Their guards were unplayable and now you bring
in two guys who have been pretty good for a
couple of years. So then and then if you don't
have an intier offensive line with Bryce Young and how
small is good luck and you already have two pretty
good tackles. So the offensive line now is I think

(01:05:54):
an above average unit. Last year it was just a
disaster because they couldn't block anyone on the year weapon wise, Right,
you go from feeling as you're one to like feeling
as you're possible three now because you bring in Deontay Johnson,
he drafts Zavier look at so the entire operation is
better around him. Karlan of defense did get worse from

(01:06:19):
a talent standpoint, but I like everro Fangio coaching tree
more Cover three flavor, but kind of the same principles.
I think he's a really good defensive coordinator. Will squeeze
the most out of this this team. So yeah, they
were very unlucky last year with injuries, turnovers, special teams,
So there's some potential positive aggression and the Saints they

(01:06:41):
do have a good defense. There are some injury concerns there,
but to me and their offense also in fairness, will
be better structured with Kubiak. They last year they were
right with the Panthers. If you like, look at a
chart of who was running play action and who was
running pre styt motion. There's just one squad the bottom
left where teams that we weren't doing it. It was the

(01:07:02):
Saints and Panthers. So their offense will be much more
structured and modern as well, which will obviously help, but
it might take some time because what I'm worried about
with the Saints is their offensive line. Well, I'm confident
that the Panthers offensive line got much better. The Saints
offensive line got worse, and cars just not the same quarterback.
And you don't give the time he had clean pocket

(01:07:24):
last year, top five quarterback in the NFL last year
in passer rating. If he's under pressure, he's not the
most mobile guy. That's when the Saints offense gets into
trouble and your ramcheck can't play. He's hurt, he lost Pete,
you lost your swing tackle Hurst, and you're moving Penning
to right tackle. You're starting a rookie at left tackle

(01:07:44):
who played right tackle in college. James Patrick is one
of the worst into your offensive linemen in the NFL
is going to start at guard. The offensive line could
really hold them back, so it might take some time
to gel and fine a rookie left tack penning adjusting
to the right. So maybe it'll it's gonna get better.
We'll see how much better it can get. But I

(01:08:05):
think they might struggle early on and then you're gonna see.
I think Carolina have some new wrinkles and look better.
So yeah, I took the four with the divisional dog here.
In terms of Houston, I completely agree with you. My
own my only Super Bowl future. Last year I had
I think Baltimore and then Buffalo. I bought it like

(01:08:26):
fifty to one at their low point. Mahomes robbed me twice.
I'm sure he'll rob me again in the playoffs. But
I think the only you need an elite quarterback who
can beat moms in the playoffs. And you know, I
think like it was Baltimore's chance last last year, and
with Lamar, I think it was the Bills chance a

(01:08:47):
couple of years ago and just couldn't get over the
hump against Mahomes. But I think the Texans have that
in strout. I think their defense also got much better
and they're really well schooled. On that end, but some
of the additions they brought in, and especially at the
can just find a second corner, you know, whether it's
if it's Lassiter to go across from Stingley. This defense
could be really good. So you know they're going to

(01:09:09):
be good against the run. You know they're gonna be
able to get pressure. And their wide receiver room now
is much better. So yeah, they are scary and I
am only super Bowl future this year the and against
the Colts. I you know, the cult secondary is what
holds them back that you know, Jones and Brent's juju.

(01:09:30):
Brent starting at corner across at safety, I mean good luck,
you know, defending Stroud and those receivers, that's going to
be problematic. I will say, you know, not my cup
of tea laying points on the road in the divisional
game to start the season. I will look to bet
the Texans if they fall behind in that game, because

(01:09:51):
they should be able to just come back at will
against that cult secondary.

Speaker 1 (01:09:56):
Indoor fast track, that's the.

Speaker 3 (01:09:58):
Indoor fast track. It's art slow. Might look for a
live over to Colt's gonna play really really fast. That's
what they want to do. Super fast, especially with Richardson.
Stich has always been a fast guy, but he's he's
talked about, you know how much better Richardson is when
he doesn't have to process, just go, go, go, no huddle.
And so I think there's gonna be a ton of speed.
The pace in that game will be fast where the

(01:10:19):
Texans there could be an opportunity to do just that
because the Texans in the past have gotten in a
little trouble early in games under slowick forty nine ers
tree where he wants to run the ball too much
and the Texans run games bad. It's amazing what Stroud
did last year with an offensive line that was all hurt,

(01:10:40):
the most injured offensive line in the NFL, and no
running game. So we'll see if they can have with
better offensive line health, if you know, with Mixon and others,
if they can have a better run game. But he
wants to run it too much early too often. That
I think that's like his the Shanahan part of him,
Like you don't have McCaffrey, like let Stroud go right

(01:11:02):
off the bat. So sometimes the Texans come out and
they're they start slow and they're running in if there's
no offense and then they'll get behind him to be like,
oh yeah we have C. J. Stroud. Let's just throw
it early downs too. So yeah, if they fall behind
here where if this game starts slow, could look for
the Texas live or live over.

Speaker 1 (01:11:22):
I think the Colts. I said this yesterday. The Colts
and the Bears are my biggest wild cards this year,
and the Colts specifically, like obviously Richardson's talent and there's
to me two questions. One case they healthy obviously, and
you watch him in that preseason like what Shane was
able to do with Jalen. Jalen doesn't throw as hard,
so he has a little more touch on like dumpoffs.

(01:11:43):
It's hard for Anthony Richardson to not throw you know,
Randy Johnson fastballs, and the balls just kind of fly
and if they overthrow, you know, it gets tipped and picked.
He's gonna have some of just atrocious games where he
throws three picks this year, but he also could have
games where he accounts for five touchdowns. Right, So it's
just to me, I don't know, I mean love, I

(01:12:05):
was like, should I pick him to win the division?
I watched the preseason, like, well, I'm overthinking this one.
I think they could be good, but he's going to
be Shane's gonna earn his salary this year coaching that
guy because it could go really well, but it's gonna
be difficult. Where this is where I like CJ and
just big picture if you like him to compete with
the Chiefs. Like the problem with Lamar is he got

(01:12:26):
so much better last year throwing within the pocket, and
then he freaked out in that Chiefs game and he's
just like he was uncomfortable, where Josh has had a
lot of success. Obviously Monkin should have ran him more
in that game against the Chiefs, but like Josh has
made a lot of throws within the pocket against the
Chiefs and big games, his defense has let him down
at spots where it's like that's CJ's game, Now, can't
he do it in January against Chiefs. He'll have to

(01:12:48):
prove it, but like that's how he plays. So it's yeah,
I don't know, you're right. I mean, that's three points
favorite on the road against you know, a division rival's
tough spot, but that's that's one of the better games
on Saturday.

Speaker 3 (01:13:02):
To me.

Speaker 1 (01:13:03):
I just look at all these underdogs, like the Cards,
against the Bills. You know, I look this morning, it
was six and a half. That's a game where how
do you prepare for Kyler during practice? You can't, right, So, Like,
I don't know if the Cards are gonna win more
than five or six games this year, but they're gonna
have some serious upsets along the way because they have

(01:13:26):
to be one of the better teams that's probably gonna
finish fourth in their division. In the NF they're probably
the best, and mainly because of him, and we saw
him last year when he gets on that fucking heater,
like it's just to me an easy one. Maybe they're
down twelve points or thirteen points in the fourth quarter
and he just does some shit. I like the Cards
a lot here, and I'm a Buffalo fan this year,

(01:13:46):
Like I think the Bills pick them to win the
division or whatever. But I could see this game being
like tied in the fourth quarter, especially the weather's good.
It's like he's used to playing the heat. He lives
in Arizona. I don't know how hot it is in Buffalo,
But I love the Cards. Anything over six, honestly, six
and a half out of it.

Speaker 3 (01:14:04):
Look this morning, Yeah, if you can get a seven.
Don't mind that.

Speaker 1 (01:14:09):
I think it could be seven by kickoff or probably not.

Speaker 3 (01:14:12):
It could. It might get there and then like anytime,
you gotta be watching, Like anytime it gets there, it's
gonna be picked off in the market and then it'll
come back down. But maybe you can get like a
juiced more expensive seven. At one point, I'm struggling with
this game. I do think Arizona will be much better.
You bring in Marvin Harrison. Greg Dortch is my guy's

(01:14:33):
been my guy since Wake Forest. The offense is gonna
be good. The defense, I love what they're doing schematically,
and they run some of this nine spacing quarters stuff
and they're running some very modern things on that defense.
But they just don't have a lot of talent. Let's
face it. The defense is there's only so much you

(01:14:54):
can do there. It's it's the secondaries. The upside would
be the scheme is good, and then you need like
the rookie Melton to hit at corner the second year
other corner out of QC. Need him to take the
next step in the Murphy bunting to have a rebound year,
and then you know, if you if you get all
that to happen. It's asking a lot at the cornerback position,

(01:15:15):
but a lot of variants at that position. You know,
that'll help if you can cover guys in space, because
right now, on paper, you know, I mean, the safeties
aren't bad. So if you get the corners to step up,
you might be Okay, you're not gonna be a good defense,
but not bottom of the barrel. That's what I would
worry about there. But I'm just struggling to determine how
the Bills are going to play this out. Last year

(01:15:37):
they became super run heavy, and you know, they lost Diggs,
but like Diggs was falling out of what what they
were even doing. You would watch the Bills game like,
why is Diggs not in on this third and eighth?
He's on the sidelines. It'd happened constantly, and they went
super run heavy after they made the offensive coordinator changed
to Brady, And so I struggled to say, Okay, what

(01:15:59):
is what is buff going to do here? Because they
should have successes going BULLI ball with their backs with
Alan against Arizona, and in that case, like you probably
want the underdog. You probably want the under but they
have a bunch of new pieces at receiver and how
is this all going to work the passing game? Do
they want to work on that because this would be
a good team to work on that against. But maybe

(01:16:22):
you don't want to show anything. So I'm getting good.

Speaker 1 (01:16:24):
They they play next Thursday, right against my next.

Speaker 3 (01:16:27):
Thursday, and four of their next five games are on
the road against the Texans, the Jets, the Dolphins, and
the Ravens. I mean, there's your chance to potentially lose
the one seed, your AFC playoff hopes, your division hopes.
I mean, those are four of the better teams in
the FC. You face them all on the road in
the first six weeks. So do you not want to

(01:16:47):
show anything or do you need to work the kinks
out and let Alan try to come out here and
air it out. I don't know. So I do think
that the Bills defense will take a significant step back.
They have two really good defensive ends in who are
going to be asked to step up in Russo and Epinez.
So their interior defensive line is good as well with

(01:17:08):
Jones and Oliver. So can von Miller give them anything?
To the depth perspective, the depth on this team is
really bad, but they need their defensive ends to hit
and their corners are good. They need their corners to
play really well and not get hurt. The depth again
very questionable there because they lost both of their safeties,
mainstays of that defense were really important in that McDermott

(01:17:32):
defense that he just those safeties have provided him with
so much flexibility and what he could do, similar to
what happened with Cincinnati last year. They lost both of
their mainstay safeties and their defense fell off a cliff.
There was communication busts, They allowed too many explosive plays
that could happen here as well. Week one, you're starting Tamorrow,
Hamlin and Taylor rapid safety. That's a big downgrade to

(01:17:56):
what Buffalo has had, so not as much flexibility, probably
a lot both those guys are. They played better coming downhill,
not as good in coverage going backwards. And then you
lost your quarterback of your defense and Matt Mulano to injury,
and you're gonna be relying on Dorian Williams Moore, second
year player out of Tulane and struggled at times when
he's had to play. So you know that middle of
the defense, uh on the back end got significantly worse,

(01:18:21):
and that's gonna kind of handcuff McDermott and his zone
heavy Jim Johnson disciple, his defense and what he can do.
So I think that there will be opportunities for Arizona
to hit some explosive plays here and for Kyler to have,
you know, to use his legs have a big day
when Buffalo actually does generate pressure, because that's gonna be

(01:18:42):
their best recipe for success. But I do think the
Buffalo defense does take a step back. But I just
don't know how Buffalo is gonna play this out. So
I don't mind your take on playing Arizona as a
dog here in Week one, but I might sit this
one out.

Speaker 1 (01:18:55):
I mean, I understand the line being big because Buffalo
has been a consistent power and obvious have been bad.
This one, to me jumped out. Now. I'm sure you've
got stats about rookie quarterbacks week one, but Seattle, who
feels like it's being treated like they're Buffalo or forty
nine ers or the Rams or something getting six points

(01:19:16):
at home like Denver wasn't a four or five win
team last year they won a games, and again rookie
quarterback the twelves. But Seattle has been a shell of itself.
Right the home quote unquote home field advantage post like
the peak of the yellowb Russell Wilson run. My first

(01:19:36):
reaction when I saw this line earlier in the week,
and again, I'm someone that likes Denver this week was
hammered Denver. But I know you had some thoughts on
this game. I just like, here's my thing with Seattle.
Everyone a lot of people are high on them because
Mike McDonald was a stud you never know how it got.
We've seen a lot of great coordinators. Being a head

(01:19:57):
coach is completely different one. And too, they have been
winning nine games, so even if he improves their defense,
like what are they gonna do? Go to eleven twelve
win team would because their quarterback ultimately is not a
top fifteen guy. He's solid, but he has a lot
of moments like I've seen him lose five straight games
with forty nine ers and look shitty. So when he
plays good teams like I don't necessarily trust him. So

(01:20:18):
i I'm not anti Seattle, Like, clearly they have a
lot of talent. Everyone's high on Byron Murphy and it's
impossible to not like if Mike McDonald was had been
an offensive coordinator, we'd be talking about him like Kyle
Sean McVay, shange psychin right. But when you're a defensive guy,
we just kind of at least I do, you know,
kind of take a wait and see approach. I don't know, man,

(01:20:40):
I just think Sean Payton verst Mike McDonald the first
time head coach, but he also has a rookie quarterback.
I like Denver in this spot. What say you?

Speaker 3 (01:20:49):
Yeah, I'll be against here, but I can see the
case for taking.

Speaker 1 (01:20:54):
You like you like laying you know, close to a touchdown?

Speaker 3 (01:20:58):
Yeah, I mean I laid five and a half little
dice here at six. But I look, I just think
I've seen firsthand as a Ravens fan what McDonald did,
and you're right to question how well he translated to
a head coach is completely different running the whole operation.
But what I do know and seeing firsthand is his
game plans. Number one. Not only was this defensive scheme

(01:21:19):
so good and so fluid, his game plans on a
week to week basis, you know, and I track all
this stuff. They're coverages, could there was no trend. It's
like what they were running something different every week. It's
the opposite of the Colts. And you know, Gus Bradley's
still running his old static cover three defense he knew
we were going to get. McDonald was different every week,

(01:21:39):
completely unique and tailored to the opponent and quarterback that
he was facing, which makes it difficult for offensive coordinators
to prepare for and confuses opposing quarterbacks. And it's one
of the reasons we saw the Ravens first team in
modern NFL history to lead the league in points, allow, takeaways,

(01:22:01):
end sacks. And it's not like they had a ton
of guys.

Speaker 1 (01:22:03):
You know.

Speaker 3 (01:22:07):
That's a tough task for a So whatever you want to, however,
will be successful as the head coach TBD. But what
I do know is their defensive game plan and their
scheme and their preparation for this for Week one, you know,
is going to be elite and their defense is going
to be ready, and it's going to be a very

(01:22:27):
tough task for Nicks. Who I you know, I'm sure
Peyton's probably gonna have kids, you know, treat them with
kids gloves here, But I think he's ultimately going to
make a mistake or two and that'll lead to this
game getting a bit out of hand. It's look, rookie
quarterbacks historically have not fared well on the road in
Week one. I think their teams have averaged about eighteen

(01:22:48):
points per game. And the last rookie quarterback to win
on the road, either straight up or against the spread,
Sam Darnold back in UH seven team twenty eighteen.

Speaker 1 (01:23:00):
Where in that game?

Speaker 3 (01:23:02):
Right? Yeah? No? No? Where quarterbacks one on the road
in Week one since? So you know, Gino I still
don't fully trust, but this isn't a defense where I'm
too worried about him, and some of the stuff that
they run doesn't worry me about what Gino struggles with
the It's not Denver has an elite defensive line, and
the biggest question mark on Seattle is their offensive line.

(01:23:24):
We'll see if Connor Williams is ready to go at center,
but they have some questions almost at every other position
due to some injuries and some departures. So we'll see
how that offensive line comes together. But not too worried
about it against Denver outside of certain there's some holes
in this Denver secondary, and obviously have a lot of
talented weapons on this Seattle team, So I think they'll

(01:23:47):
be able to score, move the ball, and I think
Nicks and his first road start will make a critical
mistake or two that'll be the difference. Seattle at home.
In look in their homefield hasn't been the same because
I haven't been the same caliber team, but early in
the season, it's still one of the best home field
advantages in the entire NFL. I think past twenty years,

(01:24:09):
month of September they're twenty three and nine against the spread.
Don't quote me on that. It's somewhere in that ballpark
at home. It's in the month of September. That's there.
The most profitable team in the NFL and at home
overall about fifty eight percent against the spread over the
past twenty years. So I just think it's a tall
task for Knicks, who does fit the Peyton offense, and

(01:24:30):
Peyton will get it figured out. But yeah, I can
see the case for Denver too. It's hey, look, Seattle,
it's too expensive here. Peyton is an underdog. Maybe we're
giving McDonald too much credit, but I expect that defense
to be ready and wearing to go.

Speaker 1 (01:24:47):
It's funny you look at some of these matchups, like
if this was week six, you'd be like, I don't
really care, but like JAG's Miami tight in Chicago, pitt Atlanta.
It's just like, I'm fired up. I don't know what
it's going to look like. I would imagine two or
three of the those two out of three of those
games are just weird at moments in the game, right.
I don't know which ones, but I I kind of

(01:25:09):
like the Titans plus three and a half the Jags, Like,
obviously a big advantage for Miami is always the humidity. Well,
Jacksonville obviously is humid two, So it's like that that's
kind of neutralizes and pitt Atlanta. Everyone's been slurping Atlanta
and everyone's writing off Pittsburgh. I usually just if you
just fade the public, you just kind of bet against that.

(01:25:29):
I know you were. You were fired up and hot
on the Minnesota Giants game. This another game. If it
was like Week eight, might not even get a slot
in the four box. But because it's Week one, you
gotta pay attention.

Speaker 3 (01:25:42):
Yeah, every game to me is a treaty, like and
Danna fout. There's so much parody and I just enjoy
every Sunday and then and then at the end, it
doesn't matter because then Mahomes just wins the super Bowl.
But leading up to that point it's fun. And and
then if you're a Chiefs fan, you get to enjoy
the parody all year end and the Super Bowl, so
you get the best of both worlds. But I yeah,

(01:26:02):
all these games are great. I mean, Steelers, you got
to mention Tom and as a dog. He's the most
profitable coach as an underdog against the spread in NFL history.
The interesting thing there is you have the Art Smith factor.
Art Smith left Atlanta, and so I think by getting
rid of Art Smith, Atlanta upgraded their offensive coordinator position.

(01:26:23):
But by getting Art Smith, Pittsburgh also upgraded their offensive
coordator position because that's how bad Mac Canada was. And
then they'll face off each other, uh, face off against
each other in Week one. Steelers offensive lines of mess injuries,
so that's could hold them back here in Week one.
And yeah, every game to me has has jury. Jacksonville Miami.

(01:26:47):
Who's who's gonna get stops in that game? Miami? You
know they don't have Chubb and Phillips yet there are
some other injuries on that defense.

Speaker 1 (01:26:54):
Ramsey's a question mark.

Speaker 3 (01:26:55):
Yeah, they're they're so I don't think they're gonna to
get pressure. That's how you have to you have to
get to Lawrence to throw them all. How I don't
know how they're gonna get stops. I also don't know
Jacksonville going to a new defense, more man heavy, how
are their corners gonna stick with Miamis. There's some questions
in the Miami offensive line. But two is just gonna
get rid of the ball really quick. I mean, actually
be a back and board game, just you can live
bet the live bet the chaser in that game over

(01:27:17):
his down, He's gonna be able to score and come back.
Should be a really fun one to watch. But yeah,
I would I would lean Jacksonville at the points. Also
Tennessee with the points, I think you could still find
a four out there. Uh Tennessee. I think really improved
their roster, cornerback spot run in some veteran safeties. I
think trade trade Burt h Ernst Jones was an underrated

(01:27:38):
move linebacker was one of their position of weaknesses. Levis
now have a better offensive line. You know, you get
Callahan in there, really good coach, and I think you
upgraded the group overall. So I think you got to
take the points there. Caleb Williams still an unknown. I
think he's gonna be great, but still some uncertainty there.
And yeah, Minnesota probably my scariest pick of the week

(01:28:00):
one as I that Minnesota money line on the road
is a small favorite. Sam Darnell on the road as
a favorite. What could go wrong? That was one where
I had to go like this and before I hit
submit your value. Guy, Yeah, I just when I look
at these Number one, I I hold Kevin O'Connell in

(01:28:22):
high regard from I think he's one of the best leaders.
I put Shanahan up there too, Like Shanahan and O'Connell
are very similar to me. They're both great schemers, play callers,
and then great like just overall.

Speaker 1 (01:28:33):
Leaders players like them.

Speaker 3 (01:28:35):
Yeah, because basic cliches that sounds, but I just like
you'll see O'Connell w and someone like you. Look at
the situation you had last year. That quarterback once Cousins
went down, was bleak and they were still in games
every week, and what he was able to do with
that with those rotating cast of characters at quarterback was amazing.

(01:28:56):
Then they would make a mistake and you would see
him on the side like it's okay, And he's one
of the best leaders of men in the NFL. So
I think they'll be ready here. Like Donald, you could
argue an upgrade over what they had last year after
Cousins went down, and maybe we see him just play
a little better. He has experience already. He got to

(01:29:17):
work under Shannan apparently, like they improved his footwork, and
now you get to work under O'Connor. He's going to
make things easy for you. And this is the best
situation as a starter that Donald's ever been in. He's
been in some bad situations. You got a good, good
play caller. Now you have Aaron Jones. You have one
of the best tackle duos in the NFL, and you
have Addison and Jefferson on the outside going up and

(01:29:41):
in Week one, specificly, you're going up against one of
the worst secondaries in the NFL. This secondary is bad.
I don't know how they're going to cover Jefferson and Addison,
who looks like he's going to play. That's big. And
then you can kind of rely on Aaron Jones not
only in the run game, but out of the backfield
as well. The only thing I would worry about a
little bit is their center Bradbury going up against Dexter Lawrence.
He could wreck this game and wreck Donald and cause

(01:30:02):
a mistake. That's what happened in the playoff game when
these two teams met a couple of years ago, when
the Giants upset the Vikings. Dexter Lawrence ruined the game
for the Vikings, just completely dominant. But on the other side,
what is you have Brian Flores too, So I just
really loved this Viking staff. They're gonna squeeze everything they
can out of this team. Brian Flores, what is he
gonna do? He's gonna have some crazy schemes cooked up

(01:30:25):
for this one. But he's gonna blitz Daniel Jones. He
blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last year,
even more than Winke Martindale, who was the Giants defensive coordinator.
He blitz I think fifty two to fifty three percent
of the time. This Giants offensive line still unsettled. Daniel
Jones against the blitz last year was a disaster. He
was ranked forty sixth out of forty six quarterbacks with

(01:30:46):
a minimum one hundred snaps zero big time throws six
turnover worthy plays, dead last and beyond even Mac Jones
in passer rating against the blitz it was bad. And
they're gonna blitz incessantly against this offensive line, bring pressure
from everywhere. Maybe neighbors can have just go completely off.
But at least Minnesota their secondary is still not great,

(01:31:08):
but they got cerebral safeties. And now you have some veterans.
And I thought it was really smart to bring in
Gilmore veterans at corner, so you know they're at least
going to be in the right place. You know, maybe
they're a little older and over the hill, but I
think it'll provide floors, if even more flexibility to trust
the secondary, which I think is better than last year.
Was really bad last year. And I just look at
and I just look at these rosters. Where are you

(01:31:31):
so confident the Giants are better? Right, offensive line, Vikings
are better running back. There's no Barkley there anymore. It's
going to be even easier to defend this Giants offense.
Running Back Bikings better, wide receiver. Vikings are better. On
the defensive side, I secondary Bikings are better linebacker, probably
washed one position's defensive line. You take the defensive line

(01:31:51):
for the Giants. That's the strength of their team. Arguably.
The good thing is that the Vikings and with O'Neill
and Darsel, have one of the better tackle do in
the NFL if they can just protect in the interior.
I think Minnesota wins this game, but it's it'll it'll
it'll be a weird one. It'll be Donald or or
Jones making a critical mistake late that swings the game.

(01:32:15):
But I did play uh some Minnesota late and uh,
sorry to your.

Speaker 1 (01:32:20):
Producer, absolutely love it. Well, I think the Giants are
in for a long year and uh, well, stucky we're here.
We finally fucking made it. It's been a long time.

Speaker 3 (01:32:30):
But I got to ask you before you go, do
you have you have thirty second thoughts on your forty
nine ers or do you have another show where you'll
talk about that before you have to? No?

Speaker 1 (01:32:36):
I mean, I I mean I feel pretty good. I
mean a son, Reddick's just gonna hold out for the
entire season. Pul Levy on Bell, Uh just like him
at home? You know that number? Was it four and
a half? I like them this, I mean who A
bunch of people.

Speaker 3 (01:32:50):
Played some early Jets. I played some early Jets. Was
hoping that Williams and wouldn't be ready or sign yet.
I figure they would get it done. I maybe he
could have gotten traded, but I thought Williams might not
be ready week one or maybe signed right away and
then start week two. Obviously that didn't work out. And
then suggests with Reddick you mentioned it. No Reddick, no

(01:33:12):
Franklin Myers, so that defensive line maybe not the same.
So I do regret it, but go ahead. I'm sorry.

Speaker 1 (01:33:19):
Yeah, you know what I think it. The way it
turned out is both you admitted the other day like, yeah,
I made this harder than it needed to be. He
never wanted to leave right because they had trade options
up the wazoo, and he kept saying no, and Trent,
I think is kind of like the Michael Strahan point,
like I'm not a big training camp guy. I'll do
my own thing. Obviously he wanted more money, but like

(01:33:41):
I think he was cool. Always knew that. I mean
him and Kyle. He even said like me and Kyle
is like we're like brothers. I mean, their relationships is
pretty unique. Now relative to football shape, he physically looks normal,
but like his Cardio. Week one the Jets, there's a
kitchen sink game for them. But you talked about McDonald.

(01:34:02):
You talk about any good coach andy an entire offseason
to get ready, especially Kyle knows Robert solid pretty well.

Speaker 3 (01:34:10):
Defense.

Speaker 1 (01:34:11):
This is where you know Perty's had an entire offseason.
Last year he didn't. Deebos had a great training camp.
You know, Christian McCaffrey said, like three weeks ago if
there was a game he could have played. I mean,
they treat their star players pretty like training Camp's not
very difficult for him. I think a lot of people
were freaking out about Christian McCaffrey, like he'll be fine

(01:34:31):
now whether he could sustain fine in terms of injuries,
but I think week one he'll be fully ready to go.
I think their defense is gonna be good. You know,
their secondary Leonor has had a huge camp and offseason,
like and he was good toward the end of the year,
so you put him with Ward. They got two good corners.
They go like four deep at safety. They're missing green

(01:34:51):
Law but Fred, I mean, how many teams have just
a better one linebacker than him? I mean the only
team like Rokwan Smith, like he's easily one of the
best so to me, their ability, their speed on defense,
and just all the question marks with the Jets. I
mean they hit a little adversity, you know. I just
think the forty nine ers are eleven twelve win team
and just relative to health how they go into the playoffs.

(01:35:14):
But I think we see a lot like last.

Speaker 3 (01:35:15):
Year with them. They're deep.

Speaker 1 (01:35:17):
I mean, obviously Pierce all if he shakes off this
chest shooting, but once he eventually comes back, gives them
even more depth at wide receiver. Jordan Mason, their backup
running back, I think is a pretty good player. Kyle
was always hesitant to play him, but now that he's
proving he catch the ball a little bit. Yeah, I
just I think they're gonna be good. I mean, I said,
the one question mark when they get in some of

(01:35:39):
these tight games. You know, like the one thing the
Ravens have or the Chiefs have is their kickers very reliable.

Speaker 3 (01:35:43):
You know.

Speaker 1 (01:35:44):
Moo Moody was a little bit of a roller coaster,
so like you just need to be able to rely
when you're when you're a you know, a top team
on your kicker because their punter's good. But like if
he can prove he can kick field goals, which last
year he was kind of up and down. I think
they're gonna be what they've been the last couple of years.
Fucking good. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:36:03):
The I I would say Devondre Campbell, by the way,
I think was an underrated sign of he knows the
defense too. He knows this scheme, so it's not like
a big learning curve. So I also, I'm thinks for
forty nine ers, by the way, one of the reasons
I bet the Jets earlier because if I's not there,
it's just not the same team without him for sure,

(01:36:23):
and and without Williams it's bad because the offensive line
then would be a huge weakness, like going from having
the best left tackle in the NFL to not, and
then the rest of the offensive line is also a weakness.
It's a whole different story for party. So obviously you
need those two guys that familiarity with you know, Sala
is actually obviously key too. And then the two big

(01:36:44):
things that I'm watching for in this game, and then
the we mentioned the Falcons game earlier. Cousins hasn't played
since his injury, Rogers hasn't played since his injury. When
is Rogers gonna fall off? How rusty will he be?
How we look in week one, how that offensive line,
that reworked offensive line, you know, look in Week one

(01:37:05):
against that pass rush. Major questions. But one of the
one of the things that I'm really looking for with
the forty nine ers and when in the super Bowl,
the reason I only played the forty nine ers in
the first half, well not only because I was afraid
of Patrick Mahomes, but I was afraid of the adjustments. So, like,
what can sorts in their new defensive coordinator do? I
thought that was like a really weak area last year

(01:37:27):
where you know, when San fram was in games against
good competition, they really wouldn't make many adjustments. They're just
very static on defense. So I want to see what
he does. And one of the just very in the weeds,
but what is the Brandon Staley influence going to be
on this defense? They are one eighty as far as

(01:37:50):
philosophical like and how they approach defenses in the scheme
that they run. So if he can just manage okay,
you know, Staley gives him some good intel. I think
Staley's still there. I think he's boring, like an advisor
to him.

Speaker 1 (01:38:01):
You know, he's like an assistant head coach. He's working
with the DBS.

Speaker 3 (01:38:04):
Yeah. So but if he can, like I think his voice,
can he like, you know, help with those adjustments and
then bringing some more variety to this forty nine Ers
defense that was you know, it's pretty static. It's like, hey,
we're gonna win up front, We're gonna play our coverages
on the back end. So there's some upside with the
staff changes on this defense, especially like with in game
adjustments and in the second half when you're playing those uh,

(01:38:28):
you know, top tier teams.

Speaker 1 (01:38:29):
I think one issue they had last year is the
players turned on him. Fred and Bosa, they did not
like Wilkes. And I think one thing they had with
Sala and Demiico is they had such great communication because
remember Wilkes was up top and they moved him down
and they just they just Leonor told Richard Sherman like
I told him going into the Super Bowl, these this

(01:38:50):
team does not throw outside the numbers, Let me play Nickel,
let me play inside so we can handle And he's
like he wouldn't listen to him, and sure THEMS like
in situations like that just go to Kyle. But I
don't think, like with the coach that they've had, Sorenston's
been on the staff the whole time. Their communication now,
whether he can scheme on a weekly basis at the
highest level, because that's what the forty nine are trying
to do, like beat.

Speaker 3 (01:39:10):
The top teams.

Speaker 1 (01:39:12):
Time will tell, but I think working with it, like
the forty nineers have a smart team of players, and
getting Trent back like he's kind of their heartbeat, like
he's the guy that leads them out, like you're gonna
fuck with us, You're fucking with me, and so that's
a big deal to have him back. And I really
think I think their secondary is gonna be awesome, and
their defensive line is not as good as it was
in like nineteen when they went like four deep with

(01:39:33):
you know, elite guys, but if your back ends a
little better, it can help that out a little bit. Right.
So obviously Bosa last year, relative to his standard, wasn't
as good, but he remember he held out. Now he's
ready to roll yad Floyd Hardgrave they paid a bunch
of cash to and kind of underwhelmed last year. I
think he's in better shape this year. A lot of

(01:39:54):
pressure on him to just be a you know, ten
sack interior pass rusher, and if he can be better
a little bit like he was for the Eagles, that
will be a huge boost. And then I mean we
just know as long as Perty's on the field with
Kyle like their offense can be fine.

Speaker 3 (01:40:08):
Yeah. Yeah, apologies to your producers for me saying thirty
second thoughts on fortnite, because when you and I talk
about any team, we know it's never going to be
thirty seconds. But uh yeah, higher upside with this d
from like you said, the back ends better and they're
more dynamic, way higher ceiling.

Speaker 1 (01:40:21):
Now. Yeah, I mean, I I think we'll learn a
lot in the first couple of weeks, like I might.
I think we've talked about this last week. I think
the NFC, we'll see this Eagles Packers game if you're
listening to this on Friday tonight, obviously the Sunday night game.
I mean, those two teams could hell they played in
the playoffs. I expect them probably both to be Obviously,
Lions are stacked in the rams. If Stafford's healthy'll probably

(01:40:42):
be a playoff team. It's the NFC is hard. I mean,
you know, if Dallas turns out to be solid. Obviously,
the Eagles are loaded roster, like, it's just you know,
if McDonald has the defense better, that will be harder
for the forty nine ers, who have kind of owned
Pete these last couple of years post Russell Wilson. So yeah, yeah,
I mean, and we talked about Kyler like that's just

(01:41:02):
a that's a tough, shitty team. So it's I think
the NFC's is good.

Speaker 3 (01:41:06):
Yeah, NFC is so much better. It's a shame. I
really hope shan Ann does get a Super Bowl. It's
a shame he didn't. He wasn't able to get one
in that you know, and a lot of teams are
saying this now, oh that Mahomes guy, because it was
such an easier path for the forty nine ers, you know,
over the past four to five years. Then it will
be going forward.

Speaker 1 (01:41:28):
Yeah, I mean last year they got to the skin
of Yeah, they got by by the skin of their
teeth too. And then they're there and they're playing well again.
I mean they've played could you argue they've played the
Chiefs as well as anybody over the last you know,
half decade. In those two Super Bowls, they were winning
them both. I mean, you know, it's like you can't,
but shit, Andy's now has three, so let's go. We'll

(01:41:51):
see where this plays out. But yeah, I like that.
I like the Niners. Monday Night for sure. Talk to
you so him sucky, see you next week.

Speaker 3 (01:41:57):
Good stuff. Let's have a season.

Speaker 1 (01:42:02):
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