The Favorites - NFL Week 3 Betting Preview

The third week of the NFL season dawns with more tight spreads and a grateful end to Bryce Young's starting job in Carolina. Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter survey the board and discuss their top betting matchups across the NFL. Together they talk about the Bills hosting Jacksonville on Monday Night Football, a showdown in Dallas between the Ravens and Cowboys, the resurgent New Orleans Saints and so much more. 

Plus, we get a recap of Week 2 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
We are live from our Tommy John Home Studios. Great
Days start with Great Under, where I'm joined as always

(00:32):
by my cost, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional
better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in. Are you ready
to unleash a fury of joy, optimism, good tidings, courage
onto our listeners and watchers in Week three?

Speaker 2 (00:55):
Hi'm Chad, and even a little life lesson for you
who cares about the outside noise.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
Buddy's just me and you, right.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
It's me. You know what you are? Mi campadre. Yeah,
you're my bff. This is about us. It's like we're
married and we need to we need to not listen
to what's happening outside of our house. Let's focus on
our best practices. Let's fucking go. You and I have
already spoken a couple of times since Sunday. I've spent

(01:22):
a lot of time thinking about our difficult weekend, and
I realized that, like, overall, my life is pretty great,
and it must be great if like, the thing keeping
me up on Sunday night is how badly we did
with our five picks, and on Monday night it's, oh

(01:43):
my god, I can't believe I wasn't aggressive with the falcons.
There is usually a grieving process for me after we
have a bad weekend. We do this kind of work publicly.
We know that people are listening, watching, making decisions that
potentially separates them from their money based on what we say.
When we don't do well, am miserable, miserable and like,

(02:05):
I cannot have a conversation with people in my house.
And here we are, it's Tuesday morning. In a moment,
we're going to recap the results of week two in
our contest. We're going to announce the winner of our
one thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet
sign up for the free free Free Favorites Podcast one
hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pickup contest presented by Bet

(02:27):
three sixty five one hundred thousand and cash prizes up
for grabs. Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Reminder. The
Favorites Pod is presented by BET three sixty five and
now new bet three six y five customers get two
hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars,
sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars in

(02:49):
place of bet for five dollars to get two hundred
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
it's never ordinary. Three six five must be twenty one
or older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

(03:13):
or one hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply.
All right, Another tough week in the contest, folks. Only
one percent of participants went five to oh. Congratulations to
our weekly winner Antonio A. J. T. Antonio went five
and OHO in the contest, missed the tiebreaker by just
two yards. As always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected his

(03:36):
Producer's Cup Award to the entry that finished dead fucking
last in the contest.

Speaker 2 (03:42):
Have you heard about the Lordsome lose.

Speaker 4 (03:47):
He's a Louisa, but he still kids on try.

Speaker 1 (03:55):
This week's Producer's Cup goes to bcorn oog when Own
five miss the tiebreaker by three hundred eighty three yards.
Bcorn email Matt at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to
claim your prize. Let's talk about New England at the
New York Jets six and a half. This line opened

(04:17):
seven a half, has got hammered, got down to six.
Now it's back up to six and a half. Take
the under.

Speaker 2 (04:25):
Yeah, I'm on the Jets, but it's like what you're
just saying here, it's not confidence. I wouldn't make this
one of our five I've been. The Jets are in
the simple fact of I think they are better than
they have.

Speaker 3 (04:37):
Played these last couple of weeks, right.

Speaker 2 (04:39):
I think their defense showed up a little bit against
the Titans there, and I even think the Titans, as
bad as they are offensive, I think they're probably better
than this New England Patriots team. So short week on
the road for this Patriots team, you expect the Jets
to win this game.

Speaker 3 (04:54):
The question is is by touchdown? Chat? It feels alike
a lot.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
That's the only reason I'm alright taking it just because
part of me is just like man, the books must
know something here making it this big, because I do
make this line five and a half, So right now
the value to me is on New England. But I'm
gonna trust the books here, trust the other professionals, and
they liked the Jets in the spot. And I'm trying
to get off this Patriots team after they did good

(05:17):
for me last week covering that three and a half.
I'm not trying to overadjust it this week. So maybe
I'm too high in this Patriots team. I'll go to
the Jets. But luckily we don't have to make this
one of our five no.

Speaker 1 (05:27):
And I'm glad we don't, but people are going to
want to hear some analysis. It's interesting to me that
you're going on the Jets. It's hard not to be
impressed with this Pats defense. Right. They stifled Joe Burrow,
they made good plays, they were opportunistic, They took Seattle
to overtime, and they were down in that game and
getting dominated. They should have lost that game. It should

(05:48):
have been easy cover for Seattle, and they pushed the three.
The problem is it's just not an explosive offense, just
thirty six points in these two games, only thirteen of
those in the second half. What this says to me,
and maybe it says the same thing to you, Gerond
Mayo and that coaching staff are doing a great job.

(06:09):
They are coaching those players up, they are game planning
really well, and that's why they're staying in these games
in the first half. They don't have the talent to
make huge adjustments in the second half. Right now, Like
I would give the coaching edge in this game to
the Patriots over what I've seen from the Jets.

Speaker 2 (06:30):
That's fair, and I know Evan's gonna have some amazing stats.
I mean this, I can't remember in my lifetime if
I remember the Jets being a six and a half
point favorite over the Patriots. I mean it has to
go back to what like the early nineties. I mean,
I don't even know.

Speaker 3 (06:44):
So I totally get the hesitation chat. I don't feel
good about it either.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
So the Jets perspective is they might have just played
two really good defenses, right Titans might actually are a
pretty good defense, and same with the forty nine ers.
And like you said, we do think the pitche have
get defense. We've seen the time time again. Right, These
short weeks tend to not be good for these defenses traveling,
especially in a game like they just had against Seattle,
which was hard pumping, hard hitting, and you just said right,

(07:11):
they played extra snaps.

Speaker 3 (07:12):
That was an extra long game.

Speaker 2 (07:14):
So it's it's all bad for that new England team.
And yeah, here we go, my man Evan. Jets have
only been favored once since two thousand and two against
the Patriots, and that was in twenty eleven. Mark Sanchez first,
Tom Brady haven't closed that minus seven or higher since
September twelfth and nineteen ninety nine.

Speaker 1 (07:34):
So no way, he's basically twenty five years since the
Jets were seven point favorites. Here's my other problem with
the Jets. They did beat the Titans, it felt like
a really hollow victory, right, I.

Speaker 2 (07:49):
Mean they got a block punt with four guys rushing
Jet like that was inexcusable.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
Tremaine Johnson is out for the year. Yeah, I don't
think Nathaniel Hackett knows how to use Aaron Rodgers because
right now his throws and his receptions are going to
his running backs. Half of the receptions last week from
Aaron Rodgers went to Breeses Hall and Brilin Allen like
they don't.

Speaker 3 (08:12):
That's what the defense gave him.

Speaker 2 (08:13):
I do agree with you, but like you've seen at
the NFL, the NFL is just weird right now.

Speaker 3 (08:17):
It's different.

Speaker 2 (08:17):
Like Aaron Rodgers is thrown for one hundred and fifty
yards and that's like an ra game from him. I
agree with you, though, it's there's some major questions. So
if you want to take the Patriots, that's fine, but
obviously you missed the seven and a half.

Speaker 3 (08:31):
That's my biggest issue. Right the seventh and a half
was out there.

Speaker 1 (08:34):
I'm probably going to take the under, like I think,
if it gets back to seven primetime, it's six and
a half trending towards seven. If it gets back to seven,
I'll take it.

Speaker 4 (08:42):
Just absolutely a gutsy call about a really good call, all.

Speaker 1 (08:46):
Right, Denver at Tampa Bay. Look, we faded Tampa Bay
last week. It was a mistake. We bet Denver last week.
It might have been a mistake. I will say right
now that this is a luck rankings game, favoring Denver

(09:11):
in this spot, which is in a way team that
is the luck ranking side thirteen and four against the spread.
I got a lot of opinions on this game. We
have not talked about it. Fascinated to hear what you think.

Speaker 3 (09:28):
Right now, I really have no read on it.

Speaker 2 (09:31):
It's like, I want to take this this Denver team,
But when I go back and watch y'all twenty two
on bone Nicks, it's like, and I know all these
rookies are struggling, right we haven't had a single passing
touchdown from one of these rookie.

Speaker 3 (09:42):
Quarterbacks through two weeks, which is just insane.

Speaker 2 (09:46):
But bone Nicks is over four, Like he is zero
passing touch as a four interceptions.

Speaker 3 (09:52):
It's all, it's so bad, But it's I agree with you.

Speaker 2 (09:55):
It's probably me overacting because he's faced two pretty tough
defenses in Seattle then Pittsburgh. Yeah, this is obviously is
not that tough of a defense.

Speaker 3 (10:04):
I should say.

Speaker 2 (10:05):
You know, they did do well against Detroit, but we
see that the standpup team does have major injuries in
the secondary. Like that's I think that was more on
golf than anyone else. So I get it, Like, you
can probably talk me into this plus seven because it
is one of these ugly dogs we do like, But
as we sit here on Tuesday, I haven't. I haven't
put a dollar into this game yet, so I agree
the seven is a nice number.

Speaker 3 (10:25):
It probably will go down.

Speaker 2 (10:26):
For professionals in it. But uh, bo Nicks, it's I mean,
we experienced it last week, Chad. You have zero faith
if the other team gets up double digits.

Speaker 1 (10:35):
Zero, I mean, it's the I'm checking the number right
now because it's it was at seven at bet three,
six five, it's now down to six and a half
there and six and a half is painted across the board,
so you either got to hope that it gets back
to seven or take a flyer on the six and
a half. I do think there's significant inflation in the bucks.

(10:57):
You know, they start to and oh, they have a
really big win on the road against a team they
lost to in the playoffs, against a Super Bowl contender.
But this secondary is battered and missing a lot of players,
and now they're missing Vitavea, who's out for probably two
to three weeks if not more with a sprained MCL.

(11:22):
So like, it's a tough one. The only issue is
there is no evidence Bo Nicks can get the ball
down field, and you're right, this game has to be close.
You gotta believe. What I would say is that they

(11:44):
have been good in the last two minutes of the
first half of the end of the game, when when
they can be a little bit more spontaneous, things are
a little bit looser because they're usually trailing and the
game is out of reach. So is this backdoor cover potential?
Like there's something about this game that feels tricky, plus
the luck rankings factor, like this is one of the

(12:04):
biggest luck ranking games on the board. I'm putting on
the list to discuss. It's not assignment says, it's not
an exec decision. We will get to those today, but
it's on the board, Okay. Houston at Minnesota. Minnesota is
a two and a half point home underdog. Sunday night

(12:25):
when we did our show, the line was three and
a half. I got a lot of thoughts on this
game too.

Speaker 2 (12:32):
Son, Oh man, they're trying to make me a sucker.
How do I not take Houston now that it's moved
on to the three. So this is this is why
I'm gonna need to talk to other other professionals because
I have this number. A three value right now is
showing on Houston. So I think you're getting a good number,
a two and a half. But it's like the books

(12:52):
are kind of telling you they think this Vikings team
is about to go three, you know, to start this year.
Like this is a very telling line because they know
the general public it's gonna feel like me, it's like
Houston's a better team. They're under a field goal here.
We want to take this. But me and you talked
about it all last season. We did not like backing
CG on the road as a favorite, and it was
good for us not to back them on.

Speaker 3 (13:12):
The road as a favorite. So hesitation is warranted here.

Speaker 2 (13:16):
I might talk myself into taking this Vikings team by Thursday,
but right now as we sit here, it's like my
value is showing Houston. But I know that something's a
little fishy about this line.

Speaker 1 (13:28):
What's interesting about this game is we know Brian Flores,
the defensive coordinator for the Vikings, he loves to bliss. Yeah,
and like he used stunts. He used extra rushes to
get into brock Perty's grill for his two interceptions. It
was the opposite of what he did the week before
excuse me. Against Daniel Jones. They used a lot of

(13:49):
cover two, a lot of two high safeties. Like it
was really interesting how they changed it up and didn't
do their normal tendencies playing against the Giants. I don't
know what he'll do against CJ. Stroud. C J Stroud
this year seventeen of twenty, averaging eight point three yards
per attempt in the first two weeks of the year

(14:11):
against the Blitz, Like the Blitz was a one place
where he was less effective last year, not ineffective, just
less than others. And now he's even great at that,
So like that makes it really challenging. I get why
you've got the Texans rated where they are. We've now
been burned by the Vikings right in a bad spot.

Speaker 3 (14:34):
Right.

Speaker 1 (14:35):
I had a little biased because I had the Vikings
as being one of the worst teams in the NFL
this year. You had a little bias last week because
you're you love the Niners roster and we sort of
we missed that one. But you know, burn me once,
shame on you, burn me twice, shame on us.

Speaker 3 (14:51):
I gotta say I'm a little ashamed of you. I'd
just like to ask you something.

Speaker 1 (14:56):
How much is enough undefeated versus undefeated? It has happened
twenty two times the past twenty years. In Week three,
dogs are thirteen and nine against the spread. Home teams
are fourteen and eight against the spread. Home teams overall
fifty seven percent against the spread when two undefeated teams

(15:17):
played the past twenty years.

Speaker 3 (15:19):
Yeah, so it's brutal again.

Speaker 2 (15:20):
If it was three and a half, this would have
been a no doubt or in the contest place, so professionals. Unfortunately,
we did our shows Sunday night. They hit that super
hard and got it down to words that now. So
the only hope is Chad the public comes in heavy
enough that maybe we get back to the three. But yeah,
I told you that, just be careful. This Houston number
very very fishy. This line be sitting at minus two

(15:41):
and a half.

Speaker 1 (15:42):
Doesn't it feel like numbers this week at least moved
much faster than normal and there have been some really
aggressive line moves. Even fifteen minutes before we went on
the air, and we're going through the script and I'm
checking the spreads with Tito to make sure all the

(16:03):
graphics are right for the show. I had updated the
script at eleven am this morning. We recorded one thirty
two and a half hours later, I'd say half of
these numbers had changed, like and not insignificantly. That's a
lot of movement.

Speaker 2 (16:20):
Yeah, I would say, it's it's why I have what
you're feeling so much of on Sunday night, which is
shame of like we should be fat pocketed right now.
This was this past Weekend's the exact weekend. Mean you
get really rich off of right, these big dogs winning
outright that we usually love. So that's what the pros
just had. So you just saw pros who you know,

(16:42):
most pros aren't going in and getting cash right when
they go in. They usually roll that money over if
they like a number on a certain line. And we
talked Sunday night, there was a bunch of lines that
jumped out right to me. So if that was me
going to the book on Sunday night, I had a
lot of tickets to roll over.

Speaker 3 (16:57):
You had a lot of options.

Speaker 2 (16:58):
So that's why I think we've seen so much here
is that so much professional money are at these books
right now, and the books are going to react to
it because they did just get you know, beaten pretty
good by these pros. Luckily for them, it was like
their best weekend ever because the public got beat so bad.
So you're you're right though, like this is not normal
to see certain games move six points within twenty four hours.

(17:21):
So yeah, it's it's pretty wild here in week three.
How much movement there's been.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
That's such an such an interesting fact slash habit about
professional betters, which I don't think a lot of people get.
I lived this firsthand when I wrote The Odds, you know,
all those years ago, my best selling book about guys
who have been in sports for a living. But when
I was sitting with professional betters, and I very clearly

(17:46):
remember Alan Boston, who at the time was the best
college basketball handicapper handicapper in the world, had six figures
on a March Madness game and the team that he
had bet on verb with the last second three pointer.
That meant nothing to anybody except people who were betting
on the game. He didn't celebrate, he didn't overreact, he

(18:12):
didn't think to himself, Okay, I'm going to profit. He
picked up the money, picked up the phone and put
the money back and play.

Speaker 3 (18:18):
That was it.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
Just quickly flipped it around. Six figures, just flipped it
around like that. Los Angeles Chargers two and oh Pittsburgh
Steelers two and o X rayson Justin Herbert were negative.
Not entirely clear that he'll play on Sunday, but let's
say he plays because he did play in the game
with the injury.

Speaker 5 (18:38):
Respectfully, There's certain things that go on among teams as
a leader that I talked to the collective about that
I have zero intentions of sharing with the larger public.
You know, I can't give you all the ingredients to
the hot dog. You might not like it.

Speaker 1 (18:50):
This to me feels like the ultimate bet on matchup,
right when you know you have those two bet on
teams that you're frustrated because you like them both so much.
We love Tomlin. He's got a mediocre quarterback, a defense
that is dominating against suspect offenses. Hardball is another better's favorite.
He's got a better QB who may be injured.

Speaker 3 (19:12):
I love guys who like football, and guys who like
football they like me back. I like them back. Even
guys that don't like football. I mean, they try to
avoid me.

Speaker 2 (19:19):
Because I'm always trying to get them to like football more.

Speaker 1 (19:23):
Chargers have the highest rated defense per Pro Football Focus
and a higher rated rush D than the Steelers just barely.
This is going to be a game about how teams
do on the ground. JK. Dobbins one hundred and thirty
yards a game. You know, justin Field's throwing it ten
times a game. Totals I think at thirty five and

(19:47):
a half right now, Why do I lean Chargers here?

Speaker 2 (19:51):
Because the number doesn't make sense, Like you just said,
Herbert might have a real injury, it might miss this game.
But the books are happy enough to hang it at
one and a half too. Really interesting position by the books.
But I want to be on Pittsburgh, Like, if you're
gonna get me a bad ankle on Herbert against you know, TJ.
Watt and Cam Hayward, we like, we like that matchup.

(20:15):
I mean, let's really break this down here. What is
this Chargers team really done?

Speaker 3 (20:20):
Right?

Speaker 2 (20:20):
They beat a Raiders thing that think me and you
both agreed on. We feel like the Raiders lost that
game more so the Chargers won it. And they just
beat up on a Panthers team that just benched their
quarterback the next week. So it's like a lot of
unknowns there where I watched all that Denver game unfortunately,
Chat because me and you were heavily invested in that
and really needed a two and three week and justin

(20:41):
fields that's on big time throws. And I love what
Arthur Smith's doing, which is just like I'm not gonna
let you beat us, justin like I'm gonna put you
in a position where if you are taking shots, it's
to the boundary, to the outside where either our guy
can catch it or it's going out of balance. Like
I love everything they're doing in Pittsburgh a team we

(21:02):
totally misjudge, just because I did think it would be
Russell Wilson. I did think they were gonna struggle, like
there wasn't gonna be much they could do with them.
But they've had some nice matchups here that their defense
taken advantage of, and this one here too, feels like
their defense if they want could take advantage of her right,
they want to make them one dimension.

Speaker 3 (21:19):
So what would they do.

Speaker 2 (21:20):
They would just try to take away the run and
make I know it sounds crazy if people would make
Herbert beat you in a bad ankle, like that's what
I would do. I know that's what their DC is
going to try to do if he is the one
playing there.

Speaker 3 (21:29):
So we'll watch this one as.

Speaker 2 (21:32):
The weeks along, and I'm not gonna make the Simon says, attempted,
I am to make it that. I just want people
to know this is on my radar, where like I
wouldn't hate for this is one of me and Chad's
five where it's like I like the matchup for Pittsburgh's
defense and we like the number as well. Definitely need
some more info in Herbert and what his outlook is,
but uh, you know, I wouldn't hate us locking this
one because if he is out, couldn't you see this

(21:53):
jump up to three three and a half four?

Speaker 1 (21:55):
So why wouldn't we take it right now?

Speaker 2 (21:57):
I'm just hoping more professional money comes in the Charger
and because it wasn't too now it's down to one and.

Speaker 3 (22:01):
A half of a couple of books, so it's like.

Speaker 2 (22:03):
Clearly there's some pros taking a position on this Chargers side.
I'm just hoping I can keep getting a better number.
I did bet it, like I just told you i'd
bet it.

Speaker 1 (22:10):
But it's I didn't know if you want to make
it your Simon says.

Speaker 2 (22:13):
I mean on Thursday, it definitely could be one of
our bets, A big balls or foxhole.

Speaker 1 (22:17):
We could fall in it. Well, listen as my podcast spouse,
you had me of Steelers.

Speaker 3 (22:25):
They're good. It's a BAP moment right here for your
young stars.

Speaker 1 (22:28):
Let's live Philadelphia at New Orleans. Oh, my ever loving God,
this is the line that we're talking about. This is
the line that has been jumping like fish out of
a pond on a hot summer day when you're fly fishing.
I don't know. I've never gone fly fishing. I don't

(22:50):
like being in a fucking lake.

Speaker 2 (22:51):
I also want to stay at the top so we
don't lose all of our outdoor listeners. I believe fly
fishing is mainly done in rivers, but I love that lake.

Speaker 1 (22:59):
You know what, but this line has moved six points,
massive swing since the Eagles Monday night football loss. Kudos
to you, Simon Sunday night, we're doing the show. You
saw the Saints two and a half. You liked it
at two and a half. Now you might be able

(23:19):
to get a middle time to break out that old
chestnut by Marion Morris. The question is do we think
about the Eagles now?

Speaker 2 (23:30):
Usually me and Chad no brain or fire away or
right away on this Eagles team, after all this movement,
because this what I said on the show was I was, SKay,
what did the Eagles do deserve to be minus two
and a half favorites on the road against this team?
And we didn't even talk that's without aj Brown as well.
You know, going back and watching this Saints team, I
believe they had the fourth most in NFL history of

(23:53):
points put up through two weeks. You gotta get shot
of them some respect, Like that was a disrespectful line.

Speaker 3 (23:59):
The pro came in.

Speaker 2 (24:00):
They destroyed that number from these books enough that they've
moved it through three key numbers at this point. Chad, right,
I think Evan talked about uh, you know, I think
middle of Saturday, maybe even Sunday morning, it was minus
three and a half. Then I went to two and
a half, then I went to a pick, then they
went to minus one on the Saints.

Speaker 3 (24:18):
Now they're up to minus three and a lot of
the books on the Saints team.

Speaker 2 (24:21):
So pretty incredible. If this gets up to three and
a half and all the money, all the bets are
on this Saints team, mean, Chad are probably gonna end
up on this Eagles team on the other side, taking
that three and a half, but you have no rush
someone like me. I'm gonna hit the three now because
I do have the two and a half and a
three on the Saints. That's the dream middle spot. Even

(24:42):
if it's a little amout because I didn't get that
much money down, it's still a nice spot to be
on in this game where you really could could easily
see this land in between those two numbers. I mean,
both these teams we expect them to put up a
lot of points on offense, and you know, the Saints team,
we don't really know what to make of it, right.
I mean this Clint Kubiak kid comes in there and

(25:02):
he's running this Shanahan system and it's it's working. Like
you watch Kamar in this run scheme, play action passes
for Derek Carr.

Speaker 3 (25:10):
It is all working. So that's why it's like I'm.

Speaker 2 (25:13):
A little scared, but probably like Chad is where it's like, man,
this this ain't the Saints of last year. They like,
even going back watching all the motion, the movement they have,
the blocking scheme, all of it just looks so well
prepared and such a such a good team, not just
defensively but offensively as well. So I get why the
books have moved this number so much, Chad.

Speaker 3 (25:34):
But we're talking about at what point is that.

Speaker 2 (25:36):
Move too much? I think we've reached that point. Like
you're giving me a three three and a half on
the Eagles. If it gets there, that's too tempting for
me to pass on. So yeah, just let the money
keep coming in. See if you can get a better number.
But if you want the Saints now, I mean bet
three sixty five. So it is a two and a
half on the Saints if you want to go grab it,
because I think we and Chat talked about I don't
know how much longer that's gonna last.

Speaker 1 (25:57):
Teams that open as an underdog and closes a face favorite.
The past five years, since twenty nineteen, it is about
one hundred and sixty games forty four percent against the sprint.
So that is the Saints, by the way, It's also
the Titans. It's also the Seahawks, also the Ravens, and
I will tell you the Titans are an interesting game
that we're gonna get to. So were the Seahawks and Ravens,

(26:21):
but for different reasons. So I like the trend foreshadowing.
When we talk about Miami, talk about Dallas could be interesting.
I mentioned at the top of the show, Simon that
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I mentioned the Titans. I mentioned the Titans. I said,
we're going to talk about the Titans. The game was

(27:51):
at two. You asked me what I thought of the Titans.
I was so down on Will Levis. I immediately pushed back.
He was so bad. His coach had to explore his
reaction when he went after Levis coming off the field
after Levis made another bonuute play last week.

Speaker 4 (28:08):
Yeah, I was upset it was done. It was the
same exact thing he did last week, and he cost
us points in the red zone. That he's a grown
up and he knows better, and so you know, I
was really irritated that he cost us three points in
a game that we probably needed it.

Speaker 1 (28:19):
The line has moved from Titans minus two to Titans
minus three. The money was going in the direction you
said it would. The wise guys basically took their tickets,
putting back on the Titans. Good for them, were your
thoughts right now?

Speaker 3 (28:30):
Yeah, I think that this an thought process is me.

Speaker 2 (28:32):
It's just like you've had horrible quarterback play and I
think we all can agree they probably should have covered
both games, maybe even win both games. You know, at
the end of the day, that just shows that there
is talent on this team. Like the coach. I can't
remember the last time we've had a coach too with
that coach Kelly and just did to him, right chat.
I mean he went in the presser and basically just said,

(28:53):
the kid's a fucking idiot, Like I told him not
to make the mistake last week after what he did
the previous week, and he did it again.

Speaker 3 (29:00):
So yeah, is that tough? Love?

Speaker 2 (29:03):
It is, But he's a growing ass man, Like you're
making millions of dollars in sleep, you're not in college
or high school. Like the kid gloves are off. We
just don't hear that, right, Usually that's be fine closed doors.
He's kind of going the new style just being opened
the media about it, where it's just like basically saying
this kid will be out of the league if he
continues doing this, which is the damn truth. So my
view one that I think you have the same kind

(29:24):
of view here is just the only people that were
going to be betting Tennessee here were the professionals and
the public.

Speaker 3 (29:30):
No doubt was going to come in on the.

Speaker 2 (29:31):
Screen Bay team because they were so heavy on the
Colts team watching that game, they're like, you know what,
they were right, the floor is a good coach. He
can't make this work. It does work when they can
run the ball. Whatever that was thirty forty times in
that game.

Speaker 6 (29:45):
On a warm Wisconson afternoon, the Packers got their opponents
in the deep phrase as the Packers welcomed the new
season with a warm embrace.

Speaker 2 (29:56):
I don't think this Tennessee's defense is as bad as
that Colt's the defense. I think they do have the
front with a couple of guys that are able to
get those kind of stops. So that's really what I
was basing that off of. Like, this defense, even if
it's not Will Levis, if they're gonna take the ball
out of his hands and just run the ball, I
think this defense wills this team to get a win
because they are zero to two two against the spread.

(30:18):
I mean, we have a historical data from Evan right, you
want to bet these teams in these spots. So that
was my whole mentality. Now it's up the minus three,
so it's like, shit, chat, are we we're gonna have
minus three and a half in the contest, because that's
gonna be tough to take them minus three and a
half in the contest, this Tennessee team. So that's a
conversation we have to have for Thursday. But as we
sit here right now, I don't know if I just

(30:40):
take the three. I don't know if I take it yet.
But my hope is it goes back down to two
and a half, but I have three. If I have
to make a pick, yeah, I'll go Tennessee here. But
I hope you can wait and try to get the
two and a half again.

Speaker 1 (30:52):
I don't know that it's going back down. Maybe it
will maybe, yeah.

Speaker 2 (30:56):
Because I'm seeing some plus one plus one hundreds on
it right now, a couple of books.

Speaker 1 (30:59):
Yeah. Ye, all right, then let's wait. I will I
one hundred percent agree with everything you're saying. Like this
Titans team, it's only allowed three offensive touchdowns. You know,
it's top ten overall in expected points added EPA, which
is just a fancy metric of saying how they perform

(31:20):
compared to expectations on a play by play basis and
how many points should be expected when a play happens.
The rush offense, by the way, thanks to Bill Callahan,
who we've been touting since before the season began, it's
top ten in yards per attempt. Yeah, and the one
thing the Packers have to do well in this game

(31:40):
is run the ball. They played a really bad Colts
defense and the Colts.

Speaker 3 (31:46):
Colts made zero adjustment.

Speaker 1 (31:48):
They made zero adjustment even after DeForest Buckner left the game.
Will they be able to do the same thing against
a much better Titans front? It's it's just a question
of can we stomach betting on Will Levis? That's really it.

Speaker 2 (32:01):
At what point do they steal one or two games?
This feels like a game they should steal, right Yeah?

Speaker 6 (32:07):
Now, New York Giants glory ears are a distant memory
for their long suffering followers who have endured through the
worst of Johns.

Speaker 1 (32:13):
New York Giants of Cleveland Week three dogs that are
zero and two against the spread, yep cover sixty one
percent of the time the past twenty years. The brown
just went on the road. Deshaun look like a decent quarterback.
Do we sell high on Cleveland and buy low on
the Giants?

Speaker 2 (32:34):
I mean, you know exactly what I want to do, Chad,
I mean the fans that I want to do, you
know what I want to do? Of course we want
to buy the Giants here.

Speaker 3 (32:41):
But man, is this ugly?

Speaker 1 (32:43):
Like they're all ugly? You know what our problem is?
Right now?

Speaker 3 (32:46):
Simon, talk to me.

Speaker 1 (32:49):
We are a We're a little anxious b we are.
It's almost like we feel like these quarterbacks Bryce Young,
Will Levis, Daniel Jones, we are more afraid to bet
bad quarterbacks than we've ever been. And I don't know
why that is. I don't know why that's in our
head right now.

Speaker 2 (33:08):
Because even the great quarterbacks in this league right now
are struggling.

Speaker 3 (33:12):
Chat. That's my big hesitation.

Speaker 2 (33:13):
It's like for me to bet a team now and
now it sounds crazy, but I need some semblance of
a run game. I feel like for a lot of
these teams that's kind of been carrying them where it's like,
if you can't pick up four three four yards on
first or second down with a run game, we've seen
these teams just can't move the ball right if it's
thirty and ten, a lot of these teams are dead.
It's just been very different this year in the last

(33:35):
two years, I should say, but the way defense has
been playing it So yeah, right here though, my hesitation
chat is just everything that can could go wrong for
this Giants team keeps going wrong, and like that Washington game,
if they just had their kicker they win that game.
I think it was. I mean, Evan probably knows better
than me. But I saw some crazy that. But that

(33:56):
was like the second time in NFL history a team
school or three touchdowns and lost the game to a
team that didn't score a touchdown. I mean, did you
hear what I just said? They scored three touchdowns, they
lost to a team that didn't score a touchdown, a single touchdown.
I don't know what to make of this Giants team,
Like we talked, I think it was Sunday about you know,

(34:17):
that's a real thing with the contract with Daniel Jones,
right the injury insurance, they might eventually sit him because
they don't want to have to forth, you know, give
up twenty three million of guaranteed money next year if
they start zero for three.

Speaker 3 (34:29):
That's a real conversation.

Speaker 2 (34:31):
So I love teams that have nothing to lose, and
they're going forward on this kind of matchup. So you
already knew it was gonna be like it. You're just
giving me those numbers. The fact that oh and two
teams you know, not even against the spread, just straight
up on the road as a big dog like this
team is. These are the kind of teams we want
to back here. So we'll take the six right now?

(34:51):
How does this not just keep going up?

Speaker 3 (34:52):
Though? Right, I think people are starting to believe a
little bit.

Speaker 2 (34:54):
In Cleveland, Watson after we played pretty well against that
Jaguars team. Where I'm coming from an other way, I
think the Jaguars just had nothing in that game. I
don't even think Watson played that great. I think just
altogether that Jaguars team looked like they had nothing. I'll
take the deskper Giants team here. I feel like you're
gonna agree with me.

Speaker 1 (35:12):
Right, yeah, I do. I'm a little nervous because I
think the Browns they've been missing there a couple of
offensive linemen at tackle. I think they might get those
guys back this week. And you talk about running game
and that changes the scope. But again, the Giants do
have the best interior linemen on defense in the NFL.
So if there's one area where they should be able

(35:34):
to contend, it's at the line of scrimmage in the
running game. We're going to have to bet the Giants here.
We'll get into the contest. Let's see what the number is,
but we are going to have to bet the Giants here,
all right. One of the more interesting games you and
I talked about it again Sunday, Like I was not
in a good place Sunday when you were talking about
the games we talked about with Tennessee and New Orleans,
Chicago at Indy. This numbers moved all over the board,

(35:57):
right Like I think it was a two and a half,
one and a half. Now it's at one. You liked
the Bears. I think it was at one and a
half on Sunday, then it went up. Now it's come down.

Speaker 3 (36:06):
Hungry Bears are violent Bears.

Speaker 1 (36:09):
I'm having a hard time with this one. This Colt
defense is terrible, But I do think this defense doesn't
have the players right like DeForest Buckner, like I said,
is likely to miss the game. It cannot rush the passer.
You know, they cannot stop the run the Bears. Meanwhile,
their defense has been phenomenal in coverage and rushing the
passer like as a pass defense, both top five rated

(36:32):
according to Pro Football Focus. So this to me comes
down to, is it Shane Steichen figuring out with his
offensive brain, his big offensive brain, how to get Jonathan
Taylor in the right spots, how to roll Anthony Richardson out.

(36:53):
Because the one thing where the Bears are mediocre rush defense,
there's not their strength, right, so I wanted that the Colts,
you know, like you were on the Bears. The line
has moved in the Bears direction, but this feels like
a Colt spot.

Speaker 3 (37:13):
It does.

Speaker 2 (37:13):
My whole view of it, though, is this should be
closer to a pick, Like I just think on a
neutral field, Chicago would be favorite.

Speaker 3 (37:20):
Like we just talked about.

Speaker 2 (37:21):
There to me the more complete team right now. But yeah,
like again that's stat you gave about the zero to
two teams. You know they did cover the week one
obviously everyone knows we took.

Speaker 3 (37:33):
Them week one. But ye yeah, uh interesting game here.
It's just.

Speaker 2 (37:39):
You know, I think offensively, like you just said, I
think they both can't see, so they're you can't choose.

Speaker 3 (37:43):
They're out right.

Speaker 2 (37:44):
This This should be a good matchup for the Colts.
Their offensive line is obviously their best unit on the
whole team. They should be able to move the ball
against Dets Bears front like you talked about here. But
it's like the way the league is with all the penalties, Chad,
this this team feel like the Colts, where if they
get one type of penalty on any type of drive,
it feels it's going to kill the drive right, And

(38:06):
that's like a my issue on my hesitation right now,
this Colts team and the flip side. I don't want
to put too much on Williams yet, like people are
just shitting on them two weeks in. It's like, can't
we all agree that Tennessee has a pretty good defense
and they just want up against a Houston team on
the road that's also a pretty good defense and his
line couldn't block anyone. Do we think his line is
gonna struggle as much against this Colts team?

Speaker 3 (38:28):
I don't.

Speaker 2 (38:29):
So I just have things I'm positive about this Bears team,
and I'm having a really tough time finding things to
be positive about this Colts team compared to the Bears.

Speaker 3 (38:39):
For the Bears, they do have things.

Speaker 2 (38:41):
I can build on, not so much to the Colts.
So if you wanted to pass on it because the
number has become too sharp and it's too close, now,
I get it. Where if this was at two two
and a half, I think me and you would have
put Bears in the contest to maybe a nice number
and a good value pick. But like we just said,
it's going towards a pick right most books is down
to plus one, and I'm seeing kind of the juice

(39:01):
towards it going to a pick.

Speaker 3 (39:03):
So, yeah, you're right.

Speaker 2 (39:04):
If it does flip, maybe we go with the Colts
just because of that amazing stat by Evan. But at
this point, I'm happy to set this one out.

Speaker 1 (39:13):
Our second big luck rankings game and a number that
has taken some heavy steam. Miami at Seattle at six
and a half, it's now down to five. It moved
to five. Literally as we went on the air, I
was starting to lean towards Miami before, like after it

(39:34):
had moved the full point, Like by the time I
was doing my work, it had already moved six and
a half to five and a half. But I do
think this is a big, big luck rankings game. I
think Seattle's a little bit overinflated. We've got the chance
to bet a backup quarterback, which we like to do.
You know, We've got the Week three dogs that are

(39:55):
zero and two against the spread, covering sixty one percent
of the time time the past twenty years. That is
the Dolphins. They didn't cover against the Jags, they didn't
cover against the Bills. I don't know Seahawks, like they
pushed both of their games this season against inferior teams
the Broncos in Week one, the Pats in Week two,
and like they needed help doing it. So to me,

(40:16):
it's as much about Miami as it is. It's not.
It's as much about Seahawks inflation as it is about Miami.

Speaker 2 (40:24):
That's fair, But my positive ass is just like Seattle's
really earned these two wins and that I'm kind of
impressed with it. Where it's like I thought for sure
they were gonna choke that new one game like Awake Chad,
I really did. I think I made us put it into
our money line around Robin and it was like, Okay,
I missed on that one. But my view of it
was just like that's such a letdown spot for this team,

(40:45):
where this doesn't feel so much of a letdown spot.
But I guess it kind of is now right with
all the questions Miami has at quarterback, so I think
he nailed it. Though this number to me, has moved
too much, right, I don't know if we're getting the
best of the number here where it's like I the value,
especially if it's now getting to four and a half
on Seattle, that feels like where the value is gonna
be right. I mean Skyler Thompson, that's who might be

(41:08):
the starter for this Miami team on the road against
a twelve man. I can see them having major issues offensively,
and you gotta wait and see the injury report. If
a Chan's all good, that's a huge deal from Miami.
When we've seen it their first two weeks, he's been
by far their best most consistent player. That's a big
deal to that offense. So another game that we'll just

(41:29):
wait and see. I'll have a better opinion on Thursday.
But I can tell you every pro I've talked to
you so far, they hit that Miami number. They love
Miami at that big number. So they might have a
different read on it than I do, where they think
maybe Miami's offense matches up well with this Seattle defense
and this they'll be able to keep up with them.
But my other view of it is just like Seattle,
they did find something against that New England team, right

(41:53):
like they kind of start figuring out like if you
just get the ball at the DK that really does
spread the defense out, whor it doesn't matter if it's
kind of talk or whoever. They have back to running
the ball. Once you spread a defense out, there's just
so many open lanes. So Miami it's it might be
a season from hell from them, Chad. I mean through
two weeks they got really lucky against Jaguars team. I
think me and you both can agree might not be

(42:14):
that good. So maybe my a Wow, Seattle know is
minus four and a half. Evan just said wow, So
that's what I mean. Professionals really love Miami in the spot,
so I might might have just steered clear of this one.
Like the Vikings last week. Just trust the pro money.

Speaker 1 (42:32):
Carolina Panthers are five and a half point underdogs on
the road at the Las Vegas Raiders. No one wants
us to bet the Panthers. No one wants to talk
about the Panthers. Simon is getting accosted in South Jersey
coffee shops about our Panthers bets in week one. This
is why I don't leave my house. It's another game

(42:54):
that we discussed on Sunday night at the time. You
like the Raiders at minus seven, but that's for the
Andy Dalton news. Now we have Andy Dalton, like the
trends back the Panthers here.

Speaker 2 (43:10):
All of it does Chad there's a million reasons to
bet the Panthers here and me and.

Speaker 3 (43:15):
You talked a little bit about it earlier.

Speaker 2 (43:18):
Pro Football Focus has the Panthers great out as the
fifth best pass blocking offensive line right now in football.

Speaker 3 (43:25):
They had the same number as we do. Right.

Speaker 2 (43:27):
They have a lot of analytic people hired on this
Carolina staff. That to me is why they made the
Bryce Young move, where they're just like, everything this guy
does has been a negative, right Everything he's doing for
our team is a negative right now. So to me,
this is the right move. It's not one that I
would have made though, right if this was my team. Again,
this is just from my perspective. I knew the minute

(43:50):
he came out there last year this guy probably was
not a start in this league. And we talked about it,
but I viewed it of he could be like a Minshew, Right,
you can build an offense around if you put the
right pieces and have him the best anario he's not
even that. I mean, just watching these first two games
like he's he just looks so totally lost. So the
fact that this line moved a point and a half

(44:11):
or two points at some books, well, they took out
Bryce Shong will put in Andy Dalton. Who you know,
Andy Dalton we thought was washed three four years ago,
and I just think that's incredibly telling to Bryce Young
and you know, the Panthers. It's a tough pill to swallow.
But I do think this is the right move unless
their goal is to get the number one pick. If
it is, why would you not play Bryce Young the

(44:32):
rest of the year. But me and you our hesitation here.
I don't know if you still have it.

Speaker 3 (44:37):
My hesitation is the Panthers defense. That's my wary here.

Speaker 2 (44:41):
Chat is okay, maybe this does have some major fixes
on this offense. Defensively, what do they have, Like, what
is the player on their defense that can kind of
get stops when they need to stop on third down?
Who is the cornerback they can rely on. I know
we all thought it was gonna be Joe, but I mean,

(45:02):
in this system, it doesn't really matter. It's just I
can't get there with this Panthers team.

Speaker 3 (45:08):
Still.

Speaker 2 (45:09):
I think the Lions moved too much that it was
Andy Dolton and they still gave us the seven. I
would have been about it, But now that it's down
to five, five and a half, it's like you know what,
I only moved the I only moved a half a point.
I told you Sunday night I had this number at six.
I only moved a half the point for Andy Dolton.
So I've moved it to five and a half. So
it's like, okay, the value to me, if it's five,

(45:30):
it's on the Raiders. If it's five and a half,
it's there is no value. So just not a game
I'm really excited about. But you know, I get why
the pros came in really quick and did hit the
seven because to me, that's a good number of Andy Dolton.
But at this number, chat, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (45:46):
I'm just not feeling confident in taking it.

Speaker 1 (45:47):
Yeah, I'm glad you're taught. You're having us walk away
from it. We're being disciplined about the five and a
half and not seeing the value there. To your point,
they traded away Brian Burns. He's on the Giants now.
He was their best pass rusher. They still had some
hope for an interior pass rush with Derek Brown. Derek

(46:08):
Brown out for the season now because of an injury,
so this is a real challenge for this team. Their
pass rush and their pressure is atrocious. Just eight point
five percent pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks. That's the worst
in the league. And the secondary really doesn't have anything.

Speaker 2 (46:28):
They just have been We've seen it takes in a
row though, right Chad, with Minshew, if he has a
clean pocket, you can move the ball like he has
tremendous trust right now in Bowers and Devonte Adams. And
we saw that last game against the Ravens where it
took them a while to get into a rhythm. But
once they diget that rhythm that second half, that's a
really high functioning offense when it's all going smoothly. So yeah,

(46:50):
it's it's a scary, scary spot. So I want to
be on the Panthers. But yeah, like Chad said, I agree,
I think the numbers move too much.

Speaker 1 (46:58):
Ravens now one point favorites at Dallas.

Speaker 6 (47:03):
The Cowboys of Pro Football's glamourgine, Dynamic, progressive, and spectacular.

Speaker 1 (47:10):
Points spread has flipped from Dallas being the favorite to
Baltimore being the favorite. That's the beatdown the Raiders. The
Ravens lose to the Raiders at home, and then they
still get moved to a favorite because that's how bad
the Cowboys loss was to the Saints. Micah Parsons said,
it felt like he was in a maze playing against

(47:34):
that offense. That's how much motion they were using, That's
how good the Saints were. He just he was lost.
He literally said he was lost. I think this Ravens
defense has some problems because then now they've gotten thumped
two weeks in a row, five twenty plus yard receptions
last week, ten so far this year the entire season.

(47:55):
Last year they only gave up forty six, so they
were allowing two and a half two times more per
game on average this year. You just have to ask yourself,
are all the changes on defense, whether it's Mike McDaniels,
Patrick Queen, other changes in the secondary, is that starting
to impact the Ravens in a way that is causing
some serious regression. This is a weird spot for the Ravens.

Speaker 3 (48:19):
Yeah, I told you someday. I was like, hows it think?

Speaker 2 (48:21):
Because I wanted to take Dallas. I just felt like
that was going to be a nice bilo spot for
Dallas and the numbers a little telling where the general
public and a lot of professionals think the values on
the Ravens and I think it's still probably on Dallas, and.

Speaker 1 (48:35):
I think so too.

Speaker 3 (48:36):
Yeah, I know this is brutal.

Speaker 2 (48:38):
This is a brutal one because we don't feel good
about it, right, we want to take Lamar in this position.

Speaker 3 (48:44):
But I would say when.

Speaker 2 (48:46):
I talk to professionals, their question about Dallas coming to
this year was they might have the worst running.

Speaker 3 (48:51):
Back room in all football.

Speaker 2 (48:52):
Right, and again, not that big of a deal through
two weeks. I mean, I don't think a running back
would have saved them in Week one or last week.
But man like, there's some major questions here about that
Dallas team, not just defensively offensively, but some questions about
their running backs. So this is a game I think, Well,

(49:12):
when we spend more time on Thursday, I definitely want
to break this down more. But as you said here
right now, I bet Dallas.

Speaker 3 (49:18):
I like Dallas. It's probably gonna be a team I'll
be on in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (49:21):
Yeah, I was this close to making it my exec
decision just now, the.

Speaker 3 (49:27):
Same exec decision. Simon says, I hope not. Well.

Speaker 1 (49:30):
San Francisco La seven and a half. It got up
to eight and a half, it got down to seven.
Now it's back to seven. And a half at bet three, six, five,
everywhere else it's a seven. So look, this Rams team
is decimated by injuries. The defense just got trashed. The
offense couldn't move the ball. Nine ers historically beating them
at home. They need a bounce back. But Deebo's not

(49:52):
playing Like I know, the Rams are the side in
terms of the trends, but it feels like we don't
know enough about this game and these teams right now.

Speaker 2 (50:05):
No, And that's the worst part is like you just
had the trends wank. We want to take the Rams.
Everything on field makes you want to fade them so hard.
They have they have nothing in the Rams. They have
no offensive line now, they have no weapons on the outside,
no game change, I should say, right, because that Matthew
Stafford can turn anybody into a weapon on the outside,
but just no one that's going to consistently win their

(50:27):
one on one matchups, which he needs. He needs that
safety blanket on third down. That's what made so special
with Cooper Cup when he was out, Kuku Nakua filled
that role of being his guys go to on third down.
So it's all so bad for this Rams team. Chad,
where I think they're begging us, begging us to take
the plus seven and a half.

Speaker 3 (50:48):
That's why they have it up there.

Speaker 2 (50:50):
I'll wait a couple of books keep showing seven to
the forty nine ers. I'll take the seven. But it's
another game where like if it's seven and a half,
I mean, I mean, you're really gonna put in Chad
like that's we just got burned so bad by trying
to do that last week. So that's gonna be a
tough one to swallow. Where there's a couple of dogs
I like a little more. But yeah, as far as
big favorites go, this might be the only one I

(51:11):
like this week, and that's the forty nine ers.

Speaker 1 (51:13):
We have so many games that we're carrying over into
Thursday because we're still waiting to see how the markets.

Speaker 3 (51:22):
Move in injury reports. I mean I was gonna say
about doing Tuesdays.

Speaker 1 (51:25):
Yeah, we're waiting for the injury reports. I mean, I'm
glad we'll get some sharp calls over the next forty
eight hours or be able to narrow down. I've barely
made any bets so far, you know, just because I
missed some pretty big numbers and I want to be
thoughtful and Detroit at Arizona. I feel like you have
a strong opinion on this game. I have no feel
for this one.

Speaker 3 (51:47):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (51:47):
I like Arizona. I like the way they're playing. On
the opposite side, Detroit, they've now looked in sync and
rhythm in two weeks. Even against that Rams team, which
we just talked about as all those injuries all banged up,
they took them to ot. I mean that that was
right there for the Rams and win that game. So
I major questions about Detroit. Where Arizona. I mean, you
look back on it, that was probably the best loss

(52:09):
of the season, right that game against the Bills. Like
they were in that game, they followed up with it
just a dominant performance against the Rams. I think it
was the highest QBR game for a quarterback. And I
don't know two or three years what we saw Kyler
Murray do. And I love Marvi Harris's quote after the game.
They were like, oh, you had this amazing game four
for one thirty and he said, well, I just saw

(52:29):
the stat bocks and Kyler had foreign completions. Those foreign
completions were to me, so I need to get better.
And it's like that's what I want to hear from
a first year player that just had a career game
right over one hundred thirty yards of two touchdowns. Most
young rookies are just drinking that in where he's kind
of just trying to get better.

Speaker 3 (52:46):
So I love all of the Arizona like I love
them coming to the year.

Speaker 2 (52:50):
Maybe I'm getting drinking the cool ay too much because
they're the other side of it, right, Chad. They are
two and zero against the spread. Usually I don't buy
heavy because they've kind of over at at that point.
The markets kind of adjusted too much to them and
they're a little overvalued.

Speaker 3 (53:04):
It's only moved half.

Speaker 2 (53:04):
A point, right, it was three and a half, it's
down to three. The books are getting nice two way
action on this one. So I think the general public
still thinks this is the better team in Detroit, which
I think we all agree, right Chad. They have a
better offense and defense. Yeah, yeah, there is a reason
two back Detroit here. I get why people are taking
the minus three minus three and a half on this
Detroit team.

Speaker 3 (53:25):
I just viewed it as Arizona is.

Speaker 2 (53:26):
Always gonna have us in this game, Shad, Like we've
seen it from this secondary of Detroit. They haven't fixed
all their issues despite spending money going out getting guys
and through the draft, there are still ways you can
attack this Detroit secondary. So I agree with everyone Detroit
is a better team if this was week eleven, week twelve.
Once Detroit figures it all out and they get a rhythm,
I probably would back them here. At this point in

(53:48):
the season, Arizona to me, looks more in sync, confident
what they're gonna do on offense than the Detroit So
I'll take the plus three with Arizona here.

Speaker 1 (53:56):
If the Lions can't get right against this defense and
this second Andy, then we've got much bigger problems than
how are we betting in the lines as favorites every week.
That's my hesitation. Feels like it would be an aggressive
contest play, very aggressive contest play. Although it's possible we're
still gonna make aggressive contest plays because we got a

(54:19):
couple of games still left to talk about. Sunday Night
Football Kansas City at Atlanta. Atlanta is three and a
half point underdog. Would would Better's love a last second miracle.
This line was four and a half Monday afternoon. It's
three and a half now. Isaiah Pacheco was out. Have

(54:43):
the Falcons found themselves? I feel like I know which
way you're leaning. I'm kind of hoping it goes a
little bit lower, so I can bet Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 2 (54:53):
Well, I'm gonna make this, Simon says, just in case
of Oh my god, says plus.

Speaker 3 (54:57):
Three and a half for Atlanta. Give it to me.
When Simon, we do, say.

Speaker 2 (55:04):
I love the number. I'm with you, right. That was
a miracle comeback win. But I look at this Chiefs team.
They kind of had the same thing. They stole one
against that Cincinnati team, and through two weeks you see
that there are some struggles to this Kansas City offense,
not just from Patrick Mahomes, which you know right now
he's playing like a bottom fifteen quarterback. If you go

(55:27):
look at all the numbers, he is not playing well.
And you know me and you talked earlier.

Speaker 1 (55:32):
Right now, Simon, he's not even the best quarterback in
his division. Gardner Minshew is the only quarterback throwing for
more than two hundred and fifty yards. I'm telling you
for two weeks.

Speaker 2 (55:45):
But yeah, the fact that they benched their left tackle
and put in the backup and he struggled as well.
Is pretty terrifying because we talked about that front for
the Bengals. They lost some guys, right, I mean DJ
Reader left that team and they still yeah, get him
push and you know the Bengals defense, and I know
Doctor Nicks talked about a lot the Bengals might have

(56:06):
a bottom ten defense, like that's a very young defense
in Cincinnati, and they really did dominate that Chiefs team
in that game. I mean you take away you know
the calls by the refs and that's seven that gave
up on the Bengals fumble by Joe Burrow.

Speaker 3 (56:21):
It's like they get rolled.

Speaker 2 (56:22):
So this Atlanta team, you know what they might struggle
with on offense is really strong outside pass rushers.

Speaker 3 (56:29):
We saw in that Eagles game. You know Kirk he
can still move in the pocket. Well.

Speaker 2 (56:34):
He the only guy in the Eagles that gave them
any type of fits was Jalen Carter. The rest of
the Egles defensive line is this terrible non existent. So
he kind of knew that if he's pushing up the
left side, I'll just step right around it. And then
the same thing happened when would go up the left side.
He's like I'll just step right around and just there
was a rhythm to what Kirk was doing where we
didn't really see that in week went against Pittsburgh. Obviously

(56:55):
got a little bit more confident in pushing off that
back leg. So yeah, from my view of this Atlanta team,
Chad's right like, if you want to do bet the Chiefs,
it might get there for you might be able to
get to two and a half, maybe we'll go down
to three. I'm just gonna grab it right now for
Atlanta because I do think the profession's gonna keep coming
on this side. So looking the action app right now,

(57:16):
seventy percent of the bet sentie percent of the money
is on the chief So yeah, obviously it's been pretty
heavy professional money moving.

Speaker 3 (57:22):
This down for four and a half.

Speaker 1 (57:25):
I don't want to take that hook with Atlanta. I
don't want to be like over influenced by what I
saw last night, at least until I fell asleep.

Speaker 2 (57:34):
I don't think it moved off last night. I think
it moved off. But checkoll injury, honestly, you do. He's
such a big piece of that offense. Now, you know,
Travis Kelcey.

Speaker 3 (57:42):
Is non existent this season.

Speaker 2 (57:44):
He's just in the different phase of his Speers right
means you're depending on Rice and Worthy, two very young receivers.
This is the time of year you want to play
the Chiefs right now, they don't know who the hell
their left tackle is, and other than Rice, they don't
know who their their second option is. It's it's there's
a there's some questions right now with this Chiefs team
that I think we can take advantage of.

Speaker 1 (58:02):
Chef Okay, Monday Night Football, Jacksonville at Buffalo.

Speaker 6 (58:08):
A generation of kids had seen Lake Cary freeze over
that they had never seen their Buffalo Bills defeat the
Miami Dophins.

Speaker 1 (58:17):
Buffalo is a five and a half point favorite. Jags
are zero to two according to ESPNS, FBI and the
Bill Barnwell Column, twenty three percent chance to make the playoffs.
You and I Simon have struggled with Trevor. Lawrence did
not go the direction we thought it would go in

(58:38):
year three. He's not got this huge contractor, and you
and I have been struggling to identify statistically what we
see on the field, which is he's not great in
the red zone, he doesn't have great touch, he's not
very accurate. The chemistry between him and Doug Peterson still
isn't fantastic the way we want it to be. Barnlow

(59:01):
pointed this out in his column in the Quick Passing Game,
which is throws under two and a half seconds, which
Doug Peterson loves. Trevor Lawrence's completion percentage is last in
the league on these throws. His four point four yards
per attempt is thirtieth. You know, he's ahead of Bryce
Young and Will Levis Jeez in the red zone. Twenty

(59:22):
eighth in expected points last year, twenty ninth so far
this year. This brings statistical evidence to everything we've been
saying about Trevor Lawrence and yet and yet Simon, Yeah,
I got a bet the Jackson, and I'm making it
my exact decision.

Speaker 6 (59:43):
Oh god, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
Are you have your honor's text to cute number executive decision?

Speaker 2 (59:53):
Yeah, this is we're supposed to play this number and
play this spot, So I have it three and a half.

Speaker 3 (59:57):
We're getting two points of value on this Jaguars team.
I mean, it's awful, though.

Speaker 2 (01:00:01):
This is gonna be an awful experience going against you know,
Josh Allen who's playing as if he's the MVP of
the league right now, which I mean.

Speaker 3 (01:00:07):
He's looked that way through two weeks. He's played the best.

Speaker 2 (01:00:10):
This is tough, Chet, I can't believe you make it exact,
but this is the kind of bets we need to make, right.

Speaker 3 (01:00:14):
These are gross bets, the gross bets.

Speaker 1 (01:00:16):
We got to get back to who we are of
trying to like lean into the shorter numbers with the
teams that like have the quarterbacks. I believe in against
the teams with the quarterbacks, I don't. The truth is,
I still need to believe Trevor Lawrence is good. I
think he is has a good chance to get better

(01:00:38):
against the Bills when it is a really when it
is a decent sized number, this is a big luck
rankings game. If you look at both the Browns game
and the Dolphins game, especially the Dolphins game, the Jats
could be one in one, right, and we're having a
different conversation, So there's there's a chance he's gonna put

(01:01:02):
himself in a better spot.

Speaker 2 (01:01:03):
Yeah, and you're also just playing the numbers here. We
know we're getting value here. We can't let the Josh
Allen effects scare us off and this is gonna be brutal.
It's gonna be brutal, and we come in on Tuesday
if we don't hit this one. But I do agree
with Chad, like this is a good number. This is
as low as it can get. It feels like for
this Jaguars team being oh and to this season, they

(01:01:24):
go zero to three. Obviously the season is over, So
I'm with you. I like the desperate team here against
the Bills on long rest, coming off a huge win
against a divisional opponent. You know, it's just the classic
letdown spot for this Bill's team historically.

Speaker 1 (01:01:39):
And their defense is still not very good. Kyler lit
him up. They won that game big against the Dolphins,
but also because Tua didn't play the whole game, and like,
there's some issues here on this defense that you know,
cross our fingers. Now, the Jazz can take advantage. The
second game on Monday night, Washington and Cincinnati. Cincinnati is
an eight point favorite. I actually have no and you

(01:02:00):
know this game at all right now. I mean, it's
a big number, so we'd probably want to lean Washington,
But yeah, I don't have a strong theory on it.

Speaker 2 (01:02:09):
Same thing if I was still alive in the Survivor contest,
and I hadn't used the Bengals, I probably would use
them here. It's a nice spot for a team that's
owing two to finally get their first win at home
against a Washington team that, yeah, they're fun, they're exciting,
but you know they just won a game without scoring
a touchdown, like they're just all around they're bad, right.

(01:02:31):
I think we've seen that with Jay and Daniels is
a kid that is not going to last the whole season,
even on a bunch of those runs against the Giants,
mistakes on this unnecessary hit. So if you with whatever
side you're on here, I don't really have an opinion
either on with Chad, I lean towards the Bengals, but
I haven't bet this one at all.

Speaker 1 (01:02:48):
Simon. We have about seven, eight, nine, ten games that
we want to probably review on Thursday and narrow down
to our final five. The good news is the list
of quarterbacks of this game in this in this list
and the number of ugly dogs that we have, We're
getting back to the basics. None of this bullshit. Jared Goff,

(01:03:11):
Dak Prescott, brock Purty shot. We got Bonnicks, we got
Will Levis. We got Daniel Jones, we got a hobbled
Kirk Cousins. We got Trevor Lawrence, who hasn't won a
game in like three hundred days, like Skyler Town.

Speaker 3 (01:03:29):
Come on, our one favorite might be Will Levis.

Speaker 1 (01:03:33):
Like now we're getting back to it. We're getting back
to who we are. Five and now around the corner here, buddy,
that's how I feel, all right. The Favorites is presented
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(01:04:18):
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