September 19, 2024 • 59 mins
Can the Ravens rebound in Dallas? Are the Panthers ready to win an NFL game? And can the Miami Dolphins cover the number with Skyler Thompson? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to answer these questions and give out their favorite bets across the NF slate. Together they give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and so much more.
Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com
We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I am live from my Tommy John home studio, and
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
(00:32):
my campadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter. What else?
So I'm in?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Hello, Chad, fix the camera, brother, We're all good to go,
ready to bet some ugly dogs and hopefully, hopefully the
takes are so hot it doesn't overheat the camera once again.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Well listen. I feel like, just in the pre show banter,
I felt like coming into today we would be on
the same page. And I don't feel like we are.
So let's get to it. I'm feeling a little like
a little sad today. Last night was my last curriculum
(01:13):
night as a parent for my kids. My senior had
his curriculum night last night.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
What is curriculum? Is that back to school nights?
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Back to school night?
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Oh my god? I hate the name change. Hate the
name change.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Yeah, I don't know that's what they call it here
in West Harford. I think when you become a when
you become a senior in high school. It's no longer
back to school. It's very serious. It's curriculum night.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Now they should reminded they're still children. They're children. Okay,
it's back to school night. Maybe in college. I get it.
I get when the parents come and visit. They can
give it some name, but that's crazy name change.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Well, listen, whatever it is, it's over for me. So
now all I have to look forward to is what
we do on this show. And I'm already upset. I'm
even more upset because we can't get on the same page. Well,
we'll have to talk it through. There's no one else
in this marriage, Simon, but you and me. All the
outside noise has to go away. You and I have
(02:12):
to come to an agreement. Today, as our NFL Week
three Best Bets episode, Simon and I will narrow down
our five picks in the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand
dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented by bet three
six y five sign up favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com.
We will also get to our foxhole, our Tommy John
(02:32):
Big Balls bet of the Week. Simon's biggest bets are
boosted money line underdog parlay at Bet three sixty five
plus our underdog Round Robin parlay. We're still debating if
we're going to give a survivor because we are so
out of survivor that we didn't want to talk about anymore.
Bets are rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made.
As our friend and volume podcast boss Colin Coward Life
(02:57):
to say.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
There's a sea of money out there.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet
three six five and this just in new Bet three
sixty five customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus
bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo
code Favorite deposit ten dollars in place of bet for
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(03:20):
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features,
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(03:42):
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply all right Thursdays during the season.
We like to hear how the wise guys are responding
to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are are,
and the pros feel compelled to weigh in. Simon, Well,
(04:05):
I bet there's a lot to discuss shark calls.
Speaker 3 (04:10):
Hello, who's there, I'm talking rain.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Rain telephone range, somebody saying maybe what you do? Man?
Speaker 2 (04:20):
It's more split this week than I thought it was
going to be. Last week, it felt like it was
very one sided. This week, there's a lot of split games.
In one game we're probably gonna pass. And we even
talked about the pros are pretty split on this Chargers
Pittsburgh game, right. I think a lot of people are
looking at the Chargers are a better team and the
better quarterback, and this is a good spot for them,
And I think me and you are a bit a
(04:40):
little bit lost in that one where it's like we
like Pittsburgh but don't know.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
One of our final five.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Uh, you know, the pros absolutely love the Vikings this week, right,
we saw that number open at three and a half.
It's it's down now to most books at two to
two and a half. So uh, not too shocking there.
You know, we'll get into that one more. I think
it has a lot to be with Ryan Fors. But yeah,
pretty crazy that numbers moved so much. So game another game.
(05:10):
We're probably gonna get more into this Raiders Panthers game.
The pros love the Panthers. They loved Andy dolon bounce
back spot. I told you my hesitation is can they
get stops on that defense.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
On that Yeah, so that's thoughts. I think a lot
of pro that thoughts on it.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
So that's why they they're kind of saying that this
Raiders team when the worst run teams in all football,
they're they're a little overrated as well. After that big win,
this spread to them should be closer to three and
a half than it is.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
At four and a half. Five, So pretty interesting that.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
I'm I was a little not not loving that one
where I wanted to be on the Panthers, but it
was just I just thought it was a bad number.
The pros think that's a good number. So if you
if you have any hesitation, I get it. The Panthers
haven't looked like a real team in two weeks. But
that's that's where the pros are back in this week,
the big one. I think I've crossed over Chad to
the Ravens side. The pros love the Ravens obviously. Lamar
(06:03):
twenty and one straight up against the NFC. I think
most professionals that jumps out to them, right. He just
historically has won these games against the NFC, and the
one loss he did have if people don't remember, it
was against the Giants. You know, this fluky game where
they were up ten, they lost it in the final
two minutes type of game. So for those early games,
that's where they're at. The game two games we and
(06:25):
Chad love, the Pros love as well.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
Atlanta.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
I thought no doubt this would be in our contest.
I think Chad's come around on it a little bit
as we turn along here. This is definitely a professional
sticking the flag in the game.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
We all the same view.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
There's some major questions right now about this Kansas City offense,
and then Chad's gonna happy to hear this the game
that I was not totally in on, but I'm coming
around with it. Supporting my guy Chad the Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
It's a good number. It should be closer to four.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
It's still at five at most books. Professionals I talked
to that love that number.
Speaker 3 (06:56):
They've already bet it.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
They're hoping right that by Sunday everyone starts putting Buffalo
in their teasers. Everyone starts bend that number up, and
maybe it does get back up the five and a
half six.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
So if you want to wait on that one, I
totally get.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
I'm still grabbing the five now, just in case more
professional money comes.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Out bets it down.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
So yeah, a lot of road dogs this week for
the professional betters.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
This is gonna be a fun. One quick note on
Thursday Night Football from our friend Evan Abrams, director of research,
is going to join us on the show after the
opening week of the season. The New York Jets haven't
closed above a field goal favorite versus a team that
is five hundred or better since twenty twelve, when, by
(07:37):
the way, one of my favorite songs was still on
the Billboard Hot one hundred charts, Thank You Going Crazy.
It's so random that Matt Mitchell chose call me maybe
(07:58):
because no joke. My wife and I were out Saturday night.
We were listening to live music here in the Harford area.
We're fun like that. The couple we were with someone
said that she loved to sing karaoke. I said, I
had a list of like karaoke go tos. Call me
maybe is on the list. What do you think about?
(08:18):
Oh God, Sam, and you're learning so much today about me.
I never fail to disappoint.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
I just love how different our lives are. Like I
think I dropped LSD on Monday, and when did karaoke?
And Chad's out here saying call Me Babies, one of
my favorite songs. We're just in totally different worlds right now,
my friend, we.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Could not be living a more different life. That's so funny.
All right, let's get to our final five. I'll tell
you right now. This game, Denver at Tampa. Denver's a
six and a half point dog. I love this game
so much. I love everything about this game. I don't
know how we are not going to put it in
our final five, Simon, Like I know we are afraid
(08:58):
bo Nicks can't throw a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
He just undressed all the way around. Look at that,
he just got it handed to it.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
This is the biggest luck rankings game on the board.
Of all the ways we can slice and dice the
the luck rankings home versus away, the delta in our
overall luck rankings between unlucky and lucky early in the
season versus late in the season, the team in Denver
(09:28):
spot covers sixty four plus percent of the time. Our
rankings have the Buses the luckiest, the Broncos as the
second most unlucky. Videvea out Anchwine Winfield banged up or
either out or playing very hurt. Boenick started against two
(09:49):
really good defenses. Is he now getting a break? Simon?
I need you to be my betting buddy on this.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Yeah, I would say, my only hesitation check. That is
what is going on in college football. These rookie qbs
keep getting worse. That's my fear, Like these these kids
all look lost, and I'm worried that because of the
way the betters are in this new waterin. I mean,
Evan could even talk about the end of the show.
This back in the day would have been a ten
(10:18):
point spread. In what world? Is this not a ten
or eleven spread? And that's what's really pissing me off here.
It's like I agree with the number. I make it seven.
So yeah, I have value towards this Bucks team. But
you just nailed it, like bon Nick should be able
to move the ball against his team, Jared Goff. I
think he was one for seven in the red zone, right,
that was the struggle of that game. So you're able
(10:39):
to move this ball against his Buck team. But it's
like if they're gonna do with the Patriots thing of
you know, the Belichick way of just once the team's
get in the red zone, they're done. We've seen that
with boon Knicks. Now, it's just he struggled when he
gets down there. So that's my hesitation. Jet Other than that,
I agree with everything you've said, like why would we
not buy low on this bronc Ghos team? Why would
(10:59):
we not sell this Bucks team that clearly got lucky
to not only win that game, but you know win
the way they did, right.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
They their defense.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Has so many injuries, So you can get me around
to it. It's just you're throwing out three or four
really ugly dogs this week that are big numbers. We
got to pick one or two and we can't take
all three or four, right, we can't take the Jaguars, Panthers,
and the Broncos.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
That's that's usually doesn't work out well for us.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
We just blindly take these gross dogs, which I do
agree with them, but it's tough trying to cipher through
all them. It's like, Okay, at least I'm getting a
bigger number on some other guys that I do have
more confidence in. Like I know it's crazy to say,
but I do have more confident confidence in Andy Dalton
than I do in a bow Knicks type. So that's
just what I'm trying to save us from. I do
agree with the luck rankings though, right this is this
(11:47):
definitely makes sense. This one team, the Bucks have been
lucky to start the year, where Denver has had some
bad luck.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
But that's that's my hesitation.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
Chad, all right, Well, they're not in the final five yet.
I do think we've got a couple of games that
we feel really good about the final five that we
are going to get to. I feel very good about
the Broncos, a little nervous because I don't think that
line is going to be any better than six and
a half in the contest. I haven't bet it yet
(12:15):
because I'm waiting for the number to go back to seven.
I think it will get there. It's trending that way.
The juice is sort of in indicator that it's going
to go back to seven. But man, I want to
bet this game so bad. Guess what. Guess what? Simon, Yes, sir,
it is time. It is time for our big balls
(12:36):
bet of the week resented by Tommy John. If you've
got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games
start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest
(12:57):
as you guys know, all right, Houston at Minnesota. Minnesota's
plus two massive pros. Joe's split here sixty five percent
of the bets on the Texans, seventy percent of the
money on the Vikings. That's why the line has moved
(13:18):
from three and a half on Sunday night to two
and a half, now down to two. You convinced me
of this. I was a little bit nervous because I
was anxious about the line movement. I think it's moved
a little bit too much for me to feel comfortable
going all in on it. But for the contest, you
feel like we're ready to roll. State your case, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Yeah, I feel it is nice for forgetting especially two
and plus two and a half in the contest. But
this is not so much banking on Sam Donald, right.
I think he'll keep doing what he's been doing, and
you know, the hope is that they'll have their wide
receivers back and everyone will be good to go. And
if obviously there's some late scratches mean chatter, happy to
switch this one out. But Brian Bryan Foryes, I mean,
(14:03):
we haven't really talked about it, what he's done through
two games with this defense, and even last year. I mean,
I couldn't believe how they were so good last year
when they just had a bunch of nameless people.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
And it's kind of carried over to this season. Right.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
He's turning turning guys into names and putting people in
the right positions. And it's the exotic blick pack blitz
packages they're running right now that's really working. And in
his career, you know, he's done well against these first
year year two quarterbacks. So it makes more sense than
you dive into why this number is calling down. I
know that public perception is Houston's a much better team.
(14:36):
You know, this is a team people project go to
the Super Bowl. The books know that, right, there's a
reason they're over to this year on the spread, and
each non cover is by half a point shot. Like
the books kind of know what they're doing here with
this this Houston team, right, they know that.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
The public money will come in.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
So the fact that they've moved it down even though
they know comes Sunday, a lot of money's men come
pouring in because why would you not bet CJ on
the road and is less than two points against Sam Donald? Right,
It's it's a spot that I see them taking position
on the public. So I want to grab it now.
I would grab it now just because I do think
(15:12):
professional one will keep coming down. This number will keep
getting bet down. So yeah, I really love this star
big ball is bet It's just it's a tough one
for me to swallow because it is Sam Donald. But
it's like, I can't believe me and Chad now are
backing him in this spot under a field goal against CJ.
So Chad knows though, we don't like backing CJ on
(15:33):
the road, especially in a game where he's a favorite.
So trusting the number, trusting this Vikings defense in the spot.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
That's what we're doing this week. We're getting back to
the basics. We're trusting the numbers, We're trusting our instincts.
We're not being swayed by our bias against quarterbacks. I
have been saying for over a year now, I think
Kevin O'Connell is underrated as a coach, and I think
he's fine starting to get a little bit of recognition
(16:02):
because of what he's doing with Sam Darnold through two
games that is similar to what he was doing last
year with his rotation of quarterbacks and keeping the Vikings
in playoff contention after Kirk Cousins was injured. So, Minnesota Vikings,
they are big Balls bet of the Week our sponsor
(16:26):
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One more stat for you from Evan Minnesota Vikings dogs
in this spot, undefeated versus undefeated in Week three, thirteen
(17:08):
to nine against the spread, home teams fourteen and eight
against the spread. So there is a little bit of
trendiness to back up Minnesota Vikings. You mentioned off the top,
the Chargers and the Steelers. I almost just want to
skip this game. What. I don't think it's going to
make our final five. The line has moved in the
direction of the Chargers. The line is now one and
(17:30):
a half open to two. There's more money than tickets
on the Chargers, so I feel like it's wise guys
moving it, especially when the money came in the early
side of the week. I just feel like it's too
hard to play this game. Too many things up in
the air for me.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Yeah, this is a fun game, And honestly, if you're
between professional betters, right, this is an old school news
school mentality, the news school with that bets, trends and
situational football. They love Herbert in this type of spot, right.
He's actually performed well going from west to east as
a covering machine. And I think just the old school
guys I talk to, they'll love Pittsburgh here they're viewing
(18:08):
it of you know, they have good intel that Herbert's
banged up and he's kind of toughing it out right
the new hardball way, that he's going to play through
this bad ankle in this spot. And it's just it's
hard for me not to like Pittsburgh. But I know
the hesitation.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
Right.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
We haven't seen Justin Fields have to make a completion
down three points at all this season, right, They've been
up in every game he's played in, So understand the hesitation.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
I get why. I mean, you are a little getting
a little cold feet on it.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
But you know, maybe Sunday this would be a shocker
if this is somehow made into our one with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
That's why I still liking this game.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
But I agree with Chad right now, there's five other
games I like better than we just sit here today.
But I just want people to understand that it's it's
a game that is split, right, and if you're having
a tough time with it, so other professionals, I'm just
I prefer Pittsburgh in the spot on Tomlin rather than
backing this horriball team that I feel like has gotten
(19:05):
a little lucky to start the year. Rather than Pittsburgh
that feels like their defense has earned every win for
them this season.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Well, look, you've got JK. Dobbins who is running like
he's superhuman, and you've got a defense that has looked great.
We don't know yet if that Raiders team they beat
up on Week one is the Raiders team and offense
that excelled against the Ravens or was terrible against the Chargers.
(19:33):
We don't know yet if the Ravens defense, which we've
said is not nearly as good as it has been
the past. We do know that the Steelers have stolen
two games because of their defense, so that is unquestionable.
And we know that Tomlin is a great coach against
the spread, and we know that that defense is going
(19:54):
to show up, especially if TJ. Watt is. There a
lot of questions on this one. If it got to
pick all and if on Sunday it's at half, you know,
Steelers minus a half. Maybe I do think there's going
to be at least six other games that we feel
better about than the Steelers come come Sunday. One of
(20:15):
those games Philadelphia at New Orleans Eagles now at two
and a half point dog, massive swing and this is
fifty to fifty split everywhere, money, tickets, everything. You leaned
the Saints on Sunday night when the line was Saints
(20:39):
plus two and a half. Yeah, I know, it's now
moved five points. This feels like such an overreaction and
such a letdown spot for the Saints. Like the Eagles
are the side here at this point.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
Yeah, it's definitely let down spots with Saints and Eagles
do flick the side.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
But the move does feel.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
Warrant in the sense that their offense is different without
a J. Brown, right, that deep threat is taken away,
that that is a big deal for this Eagles offense.
So I get the movement, but you're right, like you
couldn't have more opposite teams right now?
Speaker 3 (21:22):
Right the Saints, How did they not feel themselves? Right?
I mean, this is a team that I mean, I
can't remember. I can't.
Speaker 2 (21:29):
I'm trying to think of a team that's done this before,
Like we just didn't see a team coming. They put
up back to back weeks of over forty points.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
I'm running through my mind. I really can't think of
on the Rams, right.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
Kurt Warner out of nowhere, honestly slower and we kept
waiting for that team to break. Right. We kept waiting
like you didn't because you know, you were five. But
me as an old person, like you know, that's the season.
I was writing the book The Odds, and I was
in Vegas every single week and watching bookmakers try to
(22:07):
adjust as fast as they can and then sweating the
liability because they had opened the Rams to win the
Super Bowl at two hundred to one, and so every
single week they were trying to play catchup on this
team and you couldn't, like, you couldn't move the number
fast enough. So I think it presents a real problem
(22:28):
for people like you and the rest of the professional
betting community on the Saints, because everyone was so down
on the Saints, to the point where some people were
picking them to be last in the NFC South. All
of a sudden, do you have to like grade the
Saints better than the Niners, better than the Eagles, better
(22:50):
than the Lion, Like it's a massive adjustment you might
have to make.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Yeah, And it's I agree that with what you're saying
at the very the beginning, which is like this line
moved too much and you know hoping we talked on
Tuesday Show. I was really hoping that it would stay
at three and maybe we would get the bump up
at three and a half. But you just saw that
eventually professional money was going to come in and take.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
That number of three. So I like this game. There
is another game where it's because it's.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
So early in the season, I don't have the most
confidence I would later in the season where it's you
see this Eagles team having some growing pains, not just
defensively but offensively, and this matchup actually is a pretty
decent matchup for this Saint's team offensively about what they
can do against this Eagles defense, because Eagles don't have
(23:38):
any pass rush and we've seen Derek Carr if he
wants to do well, it's when he has no pressure
that's really.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
When he succeeds.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
So he hasn't had to face any type of pass
rush because his team has been up fourteen to three
and back to back games to start the game. But
I'm with you, Chad, this this Eagles team, you expect
to bounce back and at best this should probably be
a pick on, but public reaction has moved this so
many points right, and that the books they need to.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
Protect against that. So if you are scared off about
these Eagles at two and a half right making a
teaser leg. But to me, I'm with Chat. I have
no fear here.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
I think the Eagles pulled the upset off and we
almost put this in our money line, Brown Robin. But
maybe we'll stay there for the end of the show.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
The uh you've been you know, you and I talked
about Philly Sports Radio and Chicago Sports Radio. How to
the weekend? Give me your like have people? People have
been bashing Nick Sirianni for the call for Saquon and
the throw, But why isn't that Kellen Moore's fault. Why
aren't people going after Kellen Moore.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
Because no one knows what Nick Sirianni does.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
That's the thing I think Philly is just we were already,
you know, getting ready to push this guy off the boat,
and you know, now he's just he's on the plank
at this point, like they're really it's just the cause
situation of when it's working, and he says all the
stupid little phrases it works when we're not winning. It's
(25:06):
just it's just a bad look. So I told you,
I don't panic about it. It's so early in the year.
This this feels like the first four weeks really is
preseason to a lot of these NFL teams and coaching staff.
So yeah, the the big issue I had with him
was not taking the three early in the game.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
But you know how I like it.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
I like teams to be aggressive, so you know, obviously
foreshadowing and seeing the future. I didn't realize that was
going to be the decider of the game, that three
points that he passed on there.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
But I'm I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
I I blame cullenm moore, but I don't I'm not
mad at him. But Saquon dropped that I like to call.
I thought it was I thought it was a smart
call in the sense that you know they're going for
the win there. But the pushback I think in Philadelphia
is just Saquon could pick up five seven yards at
a time, why did we keep going away from that
in the red zone and putting the ball in Hurts
hands where it just clearly didn't work in that game.
(25:57):
So another matchup though for the Eagle against the Saints team.
They should be able to run this ball at will
against the Saints team. That's, to me is the biggest
weakness to the Saints team. So as as me and
Ched are back in this team, we need say quant
to have a day and I think we're gonna see that.
Speaker 3 (26:13):
Right.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
This is the ultimate motivational game for a guy who
just had you know, you could say a loss on him.
So I definitely like this bounce backsot for this Eagles
and this offense.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
Saints are only the fifteen since nineteen ninety to go
forty forty opening two weeks of the season. Thank you, Evan.
All right, crazy, we don't have a favorite we love yet.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
You know I have the one favora well, yeah, we'll
sit with.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Green Bay at Tennessee Tennessee minus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
Now, yeah, like.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
I decided, I fell in love with Tennessee after you know,
three days of research. I saw the line got to
two and a half and it was a two and
a half minus one fifteen. So I was nervous the
line was going to go back up to three, and
so I rushed to bet the two and a half
as soon as I put the pick in the app.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
No joke.
Speaker 1 (27:12):
Within three minutes, I got a slack from Matt Treby,
our NFL editor, who also happens to be a native
Wisconsin who told me that Jordan Love was practicing yesterday.
And then that line dropped to two, and then it
dropped to one and a half, which is where it
(27:35):
is now. And now I just feel like a schmuck
because I bet the Titans at two and a half,
the Titans could easily be two and oh right now, Simon,
and I know, like we're nervous about the Jordan Love
factor here, and that's important, but like there are blocked
punts and will Lev's bonehead plays away from being two
(27:55):
and oh. Whatever worked for the Packers as a game
with Malik Willis against the Colts will not work against
the Titans. We don't know Jordan loves status. Maybe there
was a decoy, Maybe he's just getting on the field
to get loose. But this Titans team isn't as bad
as their record suggests.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
Yeah, Hape, you came around. I told you Sunday night.
I loved it.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
But you just said the big thing holding us back
here is Jordan Love. Like that's a five to six
point line movement if he is the quarterback. And that's
why I think professions are taking a position on Green
Bay just in case that does happen.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
It's like, Okay, what does his line go up to.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
A minus three minus three and a half for green Bay?
I mean, that's how big of an upgrade he is. Yeah,
at the quarterback position here, So yeah, to me, if
this is gonna be one of our favorites come Sunday,
I got no problem from this. In chat, you know
how much I love this Tennessee defense, especially up front.
This is a perfect matchup for them going against Green
Bay again.
Speaker 3 (28:53):
Without Jordan Love.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
If it's Jordan Love, we have a little bit of
hesitation there, but yeah, I love it, Chad. So if
we could lock in the contest today though at one
and a half with Tennessee and then you know it
goes it does go up to three when Jordan loves
out me and you will love that, right. That would
be the kind of game that will ruin our Sunday
because we didn't switch it out. Yeah, we should have
for a different game, just because that's going to be
(29:15):
great value on the numbers. So I'm right there with you.
I love Tennessee, have no issue making that our only favorite.
But there is one other favorite I do love, but
this one is definitely at the top. Where it's just defensively.
I love the matchup and it's just Man, we talk
all the time. You got to bet these zero and
two teams straight up, oh and two against the spread
(29:36):
and week agree. There's a couple of teams like this.
Speaker 3 (29:38):
This is one of them. I circle, So I'm with
you Chad on this one.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
We still owe people of Foxhall. I don't think this
is it yet because there's too much yeah certain at
the quarterback position. We talked a lot about the Giants
in Cleveland the other day. Cleveland is six and a
half point favorite. We're still a waiting word on both tackles.
Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis for the Browns, who I
have not played the Giants like. This is a good
(30:06):
spot for them. A lot of luck, rankings advantages. Winless
teams in Week three go sixty percent against the spread
the past twenty years. I don't hate the Giants here
at all. I know like it's ugly, but this is
what we do and we make these hard decisions. No noise, Simon,
(30:30):
no noise. Tuck me off the ledge on the Giants.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
Man, I can't this Browns team just as lost offensively.
I think there are two for fourteen on third downs
against the Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
It's just all bad.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
The total feels very high, and I'm looking at the
money on the site and it's like all the money's
pouring in on the under and it really hasn't move much,
which is a very interesting move by the sportsbooks.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
I'm not seeing what they're seeing here.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
I just see this being a slug it out, ugly
game with two teams that have major questions.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
At the quarterback position right now.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
So you know on that chat, I want the desperate dog,
and there is no more desperate team right now than
the Giants. They knew last week they gave one away, right,
that's a spot that yes, I think historically teams that
score three touchdowns versus a team that does not score
a touchdown usually win those games.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
So man, to be a Giants fan right now, it
must just be absolutely brutal. I can't even imagine. But this,
to me has got everything written about upsets, So this
could squeak into one of our five now the more
I'm thinking about it.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
But it's like these big dogs, right, I think historically
I haven't had an amazing number about it, like these
these dogs of.
Speaker 3 (31:39):
Five and a half or six and a half are
nine to zero one or nine and one this.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Year to start. That's that's pretty crazy, Chad. So it's
going to eventually go the other way at some point.
So not to shock to anyone that we love these
big dogs this week, but there's definitely a reason to
be a little hesitant on just blindly betting all of them.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
This Giants, one of all of them.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
I feel pretty good about, just in the sense that
it's still all about Deshaun Watson. I just don't think
that offense is right yet defensively the Giants, you know,
they had one of the worst secondaries. Can he take
advantage of that? I haven't seen anything to prove otherwise.
So I like where you're at, coming with a six
and n half chat. I could see this being One
War five right now.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
I'm looking at our list and it's Giants, Titans, Broncos, Vikings.
Now we're getting back to it. No more of this,
Jared goff Rock Prety, Dak Prescott, bullshit right, Chicago and Indy,
(32:39):
I think you and I are split on this game. O.
Mine's at one and a half. I just think that
I can't get behind the Bears. Yet I don't love
that the wise guys are backing them. Hungry Bears are
violent Bears. Their rush defense has just not been very good.
That's what I expect the Colts to do and do well.
(33:02):
I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think it's a
home game for Anthony Richardson, a little bit more of
a get right game, And I can find a lot
of value in betting on the Colts.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
Yeah, keep it moving. It won't be one of my
top eight bigger bets of this week.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
So you're right, it's another team Colts I went to
at home, clearly going to be the more desperate team, right, Yes,
if they know if they go for three, the season's
basically over.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
So I get where you're coming from.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
My view of it was just finally, Kayler Williams is
going to play against the defense that can be passed on. Right,
He's just been through the ringer the last two weeks
and he's hearing all the noise.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
So it's just like Ken he finally bounced back.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
And I do think your defense, you know, they might
shruggle against the run, but they're so good in every
other aspect of what they do.
Speaker 1 (33:48):
So amazing. And coverage. Their pass rush has been great.
Like those two elements, they're you know, top five.
Speaker 2 (33:56):
Only they had Jalen Carter. I mean only that's all
they're missing is a de tackle on the middle.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
Miami at Seattle, this line is at four and a half.
I think I think we both felt on Tuesday that
the line had moved too much and there was no
more value. I'm kind of having second thoughts, Okay, you know,
like I like what the Dolphins secondary has been doing.
The Seahawks won't have Kenneth Walker. That the Seahawks I
(34:25):
think are getting a lot of credit for beating the
Broncos and the Patriots. Yeah, and not doing it decisively.
And even with Skyler Thompson, there's still so much more
talent on this Miami team than there was on those
other two teams. Still might be a little bit of
value on this.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
There could be, but yeah, I'm with I'm just not
gonna get there. I'm I tried to even going through
Evans trends and reading all his trends and being like,
there's gonna be something in here to get me on
this Miami team just because it's another team that you know,
they should be owing too. I mean, they got really
lucky that Week one, and it's like, all right, this
is the kind of team I do like to back
(35:06):
in these type of spots because I just said, it's
like the Seahawks, How are they not overvalued? But there
are another team the books have had a pretty good
read on, right, They're They're all also zero and two
against the spread this season to start the year, both
games not covering by half a point. So yeah, I
just I can't. It's just really one of our five,
That's what I'm like trying to think of here, chat.
(35:27):
We really gonna make this one of our five. I
can't do it, but maybe maybe Chad this will be
one of his picks to put in. But as we
see it right now, I got no read on this one.
Speaker 1 (35:37):
Well look, if you asked me to choose between the
Broncos and the Dolphins, I'm one hundred choosing the Broncos.
Speaker 3 (35:44):
I'd rather Yeah, I'd rather the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
You know that's not even a question to me. All Right,
people don't want to hear us talk about this, but
I do think we have to be responsible and talk
about Carolina at the Raiders. Okay, like this number has
moved down from seven to five and a half off
(36:07):
the Dalton news. Now it's down to five. I know
you had this rated at five and a half, so
clearly you're not going to see value on the Panthers
at five. I know we believe this defense can't do anything,
but I do think that just by having Andy Dalton
be the quarterback, you're automatically going to improve the defense's
(36:29):
chances to perform. I listened to Raybund and Stucky on
the Action Pod this morning. Raybund had a stat that
the average field position for Panthers opponents has been the
thirty nine yard line. The Panthers the opponent's thirty nine
yard line, So like, you got to think it'll be
(36:50):
better just from field position perspective, they'll be in a
better position to stop the pass, to rush the passer.
I don't know. I don't know. Like if we were
truly unfeeling, unemotional traders, yeah, working for Bill Ackman and
(37:14):
one of the biggest hedge funds in the world, and
we were committed, we would bet the Panthers. Here, We're
not gonna do it because we don't want our audience
to fully revoke, but you know, we should bet the Panthers.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
A little bit.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
But it's also like you got a good number at
the seven or six and a half on the Panthers.
Now you're kind of getting a bad number. But I
get what they're saying too, like Chris talking about this
kind of spot for Andy and this team. Like we've
seen this right where the new quarterback comes in and
does give a new little pop to a team. And
you know, the Raiders coming off that insane win against
the Ravens, you expect to let down the final week, right,
(37:52):
They're gonna be feeling themselves all week here.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
But I don't know.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
My problem is I probably watched too much of the
all twenty two of this Panthers team, and it's just
everything Like the only guy that felt like he was trying,
that's not fair. The offensive line has been trying the
whole time. But like there's a couple of times that
these guys running routes would just take the routes off.
You expect that to be different here with Andy Dalton.
The wide receivers I lost total confidence.
Speaker 3 (38:14):
Are Bryce Shunk's.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
I really haven't seen what the Panthers are because it
feels like their team would give up midway through the
second quarter. So this Raiders team, this is a big
number for this team to be getting, right. They aren't
one of the best teams in football. Their team is
still trying to figure out their own shit right now.
So man, there's just other dogs I like more than
this Panthers team.
Speaker 3 (38:32):
That's the hardest part. He is trying to get there
on this number. It's just it's hard for me to do.
They're so bad. This team is so bad. Like defensively,
it's so bad.
Speaker 1 (38:43):
It's going back to the girlfriend again and again and again,
no matter how many times you've been burned, matter how
bad she makes you look to your friends, what is
wrong with this dude? He's such a sucker. They just
keep getting me. All right, we'll put it on the list.
(39:06):
Baltimore at Dallas. I hate this game. They are the
Dallas Cowboys, a free wheeling All American Star kiss team.
I feel like there's new defensive coordinators on both sides.
There's no running game to speak of. The Cowboys backfield
is terrible. I think there's a huge identity crisis on
(39:27):
all sides of the ball for both of these teams.
We have four identity crisis happening, crises prices are happening.
Speaker 2 (39:36):
I think the Ravens have just had bad luck. That's
honestly what it is to me. Right, they missed winning
that first game by toe. The last game, they're up
ten and then it just all went wrong in the
final four minutes of that game, like Lamar gans sacked
and the punt I think they punted like twenty yards
to give the Raiders a short field.
Speaker 3 (39:53):
They just went It all kept.
Speaker 2 (39:54):
Going wrong for this Ravens team where I think we
talked about coming to the season, we had major questions
about their defense because they were so thin, especially the
defensive line that you know they don't have guys to
switch in and out right. If that top unit is
gas and doesn't have it early on, it feels like
Dallas can be cooked on defense. So Derrick Henry has
not been as bad as people perceive. Like this running
(40:15):
game isn't as horrible as people think it is for
this Ravens team.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
And let's throw some status to you. Maybe I can
I can get you the other side.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
Lamar when it's the spreads under three points or less
two and a half, where he's an underdog. He's twenty
two and seven against the spread against the NFC. Chad,
he's twenty and one straight up. This is a straight
up line.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
It's one.
Speaker 2 (40:36):
So yeah, is this feel a little trappy a little
bit because me and Chad went to be on Dallas here,
But then you see Cede Lamb didn't practice yesterday because
he had a bad ankle, and it's.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
Just like, oh my god, I mean, come on, if
CD's not right in this matchup, that's got.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
To be a huge win for this Ravens team. It's
just what is the identity on offensive? CD's not right
for this Dallas team?
Speaker 3 (40:59):
Right? He is, to me, the key to that offense.
It makes everything go.
Speaker 2 (41:03):
As much as we want to say it's all Dak,
It's like CD's the one that makes the big plays
out of nothing.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
So I think I'll be able to get you there.
Maybe on Sunday I could get you to get it
in there now.
Speaker 2 (41:13):
But all my all the favorites this week, obviously I
put Titans number one if it's Malik Willis, but number
two right there is the Ravens. I just they're oher
and two against the spreadshat oh and two straight up.
It's horball. I mean, we have to take them in
the spot. This is what we always take the Ravens
in this. No one believes in us back against the
wall spot. But I understand your hesitation. It's just the
(41:37):
vibes are so bad. No one would be shocked if
they're oh and three to start the year. But man
Lamar in this spot, historically we have the numbers that
back it up.
Speaker 3 (41:47):
He does very well.
Speaker 1 (41:49):
I worry about this defense. The Ravens defense.
Speaker 3 (41:55):
Totally totally get it. I mean we just saw Minshew
go up and down the field on them, so it's
I I have no rebuttal against it. But no, it's
it's it's bad right now for the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (42:06):
We haven't chosen a foxhole yet and the final two
games on our list are already chosen as an exact decision,
and Simon says, so we do have to get into
a foxhole here.
Speaker 3 (42:16):
Who do you think for foxhole? Then you want to
do Eagles And I know you're not here on the Ravens,
but we're both on the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (42:21):
I'm also not afraid of the Giants. I know you
won't be in the foxhol with me on the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (42:28):
I'm gonna bet it, but it's gonna be a little
baby bet. I'm just oh man, these rookie qbs are
so bad, Chad, I can't I can't get over how
bad they are.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Is I'd rather be in the foxhole on Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (42:39):
Okay, I'm with you on that one. Then all right,
we're going to.
Speaker 1 (42:42):
The foxhole on the Tennessee Titans running the foxhol Let's
climb down into the foxhole. All right. Last couple of
games here, Detroit at Arizona. I still see nothing. I
know you like saying Arizona. I get I have no field.
This line has it moved. I don't see anything in
the numbers. I don't want to do it.
Speaker 3 (43:05):
No, it's fair.
Speaker 2 (43:06):
I like Arizona in the sense that to me, they've
been the more consistent team offensively, I think they know
exactly what the identity is. Detroit just feels lost. I mean,
this is the perfect get right spot for Detroit. That's
why I'm not pounding the table for this one. But
I love Arizona. Pull the upset off here. It's just
if they have the ball. Last, I have confidence in
(43:27):
Kyler Murray in this offense right now that he does
have the weapons, and if they get a lead even
more so like that James Connor a run attack with
Kyler Good. Yeah, it's pretty damn good. So my only hesitation,
which I feel like you have the same, is this
Arizona defense might be absolutely awful. And yeah they beat
(43:48):
up on a Rams team that had their third stringers
on the left tackles position. Yeah, now they have the
best offensive line of football coming in in a get
right spot.
Speaker 3 (43:56):
So totally understand your hesitation. Shed.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
Obviously, if this was three and a half, I think
I'd be able to talk into this for contests right now.
I checked those two and a half in contest, I
just me and you both are like, h we don't
need to put that one in.
Speaker 1 (44:08):
No, definitely not Atlanta, Kansas City. We're definitely going to
play Atlanta at three and a half. That was your
Simon says the Atlanta Falcons were typified by the players
who consistently made.
Speaker 3 (44:21):
The big play.
Speaker 1 (44:22):
Look, it's been getting a ton of money on the
on the Falcon side. It moved from four and a
half really off of the Monday night game. But I
think the Chiefs run defense is in trouble. I think
that the Falcons offensive line is the best rush offensive
line in the NFL, especially interior on the right side.
I think we saw what they could do when Bijon
(44:44):
is the primary focal point against the Eagles. I think
the Chiefs and you said this best, like, they're still
figuring out who they are and this is when you
this is when you get them, and now Pacheco being out,
they still really don't know who they are. Offensively, they
Travis Kelsey hasn't been involved. They have one down that
downfield thread and ma Shei Rice. We don't know what
(45:06):
Xavier Worthy is yet. Patrick Mahomes hasn't been that good. No, yeah,
Atlanta go. Simon says it's him.
Speaker 2 (45:14):
Yeah, that's my biggest reason, right is Mahomes factor. I
just don't think he's looked right. I don't think it's
getting any better in this spot here. I still think
he just doesn't feel comfortable right now with that. They
don't know who their left tackle is and that's a
big deal. And obviously, you know, defensively, Chad just touched
on it, there are some gaping holes in this defense
that can be exploited and perfect run blocking scheme here
(45:36):
for this Atlanta team to exploit it. So my only
hesitation at all is still Kirk Cousins as well as
he did against the Eagles. We saw the Eagles had
no pass rush, right, it was only up the middle
they had any type of pass rush, and the veteran
Kirk Cousins was able to step around it. We never
really saw what he had to do when he was
forced outside the pockets. So that, to me is the
only fear with this. Everything else, I love the number,
(45:58):
love the spot team. Sunday night Primetime. Every Joe Schmo
is gonna be going in there throwing the chiefs and
at the end of the day on their parlay or
their teaser ticket.
Speaker 3 (46:08):
Right.
Speaker 2 (46:08):
So my only hope was this would go up. But
the reason I made it, Simon says, was, you know,
I talked to a couple of really wise, sharp guys
and they were just like, now I'm gonna I'm gonna
hammer this Atlanta line. This is gonna keep going down.
Speaker 3 (46:19):
It hasn't. Right, There's been enough public money to keep
this up.
Speaker 2 (46:22):
Like I'm looking right now, it's over seventy five percent
of the bets, eighty percent of the money at a
couple of books right now is on this Chiefs team.
So that makes sense, right, The more public books are
getting hammered on the chief line while the sharper books
are getting a ton of a land of money. So
I'm glad you come around on it. I know that
it probably helped that Nick had the landa here in
the luck ranking, so he did by the way that
(46:44):
he came around on a chef.
Speaker 1 (46:46):
And this morning, you know, I told you that I
bet with a couple of friends. Yeah, and one of
them saw me put Atlanta in the action app. My buddy, Josh,
and you've been hammering me this morning. I'm not going
to question your judgment as the chief investment officer of
(47:07):
our fund, but why are we betting Atlanta plus three
and a half against Kent City Chiefs? And then I
went to this explanation.
Speaker 2 (47:16):
I'll say, text back long term winner mathematically, this is
this is we always talk about.
Speaker 3 (47:21):
This is where you want to fade mahome number.
Speaker 1 (47:23):
And by the way I did, I'm like, look, historically
you were going to win money if you fade Patrick
Mahomes is more than a three point favorite. But then
there's all these other things. So We've done it. It's
happening at Lanta, is in lock it in it in
the Jags. I'm glad you're coming around on the Jags
the way I did. Oh it's tough, it's but you're
(47:43):
with me. You're with me because twenty it all or no?
Speaker 3 (47:46):
Have you watched the Jags all twenty two at all?
Speaker 4 (47:48):
Or no?
Speaker 1 (47:50):
I have not watched the Jags.
Speaker 3 (47:51):
Oh my god.
Speaker 2 (47:53):
I mean, I know, Eva keeps telling us that fair
Trevor Lawrence in the second half, even their game script
to start the game.
Speaker 3 (47:58):
All of it was just so bad.
Speaker 2 (48:00):
So this makes me feel sicker than your Broncos bet
no way. Yeah, it could all be really bad right
now for Jacksonville, brother, but it's early in the year.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
I try not to react because I always say this.
These first four weeks I kind of treat as a preseason.
Same with the players.
Speaker 2 (48:16):
Trevor had moments and he has guys open. He just
was sailing passes. It was really it was really bizarre.
So this, though, is the classic spot where the Bills
let let down everybody. Right, They're on like eleven days
rest after a huge divisional win on the road. That's
why I'm getting so behind the check because it does
feel like another game where it's like same with that Eagles, Right,
(48:38):
we talked about that Eagles Houston two team teaser. Who
is going to lose it? This feels like the same spot, right,
Who's gonna break this Monday Night Cincinnati Bill's teaser. I
just can't see the Bengals losing and going oh to
three against Washington. With the Bills dropping this game to
an zero to two Jaguars team, I can I can
(48:59):
see him just match up wise, there are things they
can do defensively, right, they have the athletic dns that
can give Josh Allen issues, and Josh Allen's been playing
like the MVP.
Speaker 3 (49:10):
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
there's no feel, no way. That's the hesitation for me.
Speaker 2 (49:17):
But you know, we both agreed on the Bills have
had such injuries to their defense, there are ways to
attack this team. So if Trevor Lawrence can't get right here,
me and Chad might add into the list. Right if guys,
we're just not gonna betting for a little while. So
this is definitely a show to me, Trevor Lawrence. We're
playing the number. You can still get five five and
a half in a couple of books. I love that
(49:38):
this is still above four to four and a half,
So I'll take that number.
Speaker 1 (49:41):
Check Bill's six luckiest team in the NFL Jacks twenty
ninth or fourth most unlucky. They actually averaged a yard
and a half more than the Browns last week. The
Browns got lucky, went three for three on fourth down.
The Jags went one to four in the red zone.
We just have to believe it's at some point some
(50:01):
of this goes the other way. Either Trevor Lawrence, I.
Speaker 3 (50:04):
Mean, it's been what a year and a half now
a year?
Speaker 1 (50:06):
Been a year. Yeah, Like Trevor Lawrence and we talked
about Barnwell's column. Bill Barnwell from ESPN had a great
summary of Trevor Lawrence's challenges in the quick passing game,
meeting when he's got to get the ball off less
than two and a half seconds. He has not been good,
and he has not been good in the red zone,
and this team has been in the red zone. Some
(50:27):
of that has to eventually regress the other way. It
will be this week against the Buffalo Bills. Western New
York's finest shout out Matt Mitchell. All right, turning good
weekends into great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay.
(50:50):
Our boosted underdog money line parlay. Our sponsor Bet three
six ' five gives our underdog money line parlay an
odds boost this season. Bet three sixty five will have
that highlighted on their site. Are week three boosted Underdog Parlay?
In deference to my bff, Simon Hunter, we are going
(51:13):
with the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings. Both games
are eligible for Bet three six five's early payout promo,
where your money line pick gets marked as a win
if they take a seventeen point lead, even if they
go on to blow the game and lose. You want
to bet this better at Bet three six five. All right,
let's do our money line underdog round Robin.
Speaker 2 (51:37):
There will come up Heayday, hallelu yo, wanna pay day?
Speaker 1 (51:41):
There will come up payday someday, someday there.
Speaker 4 (51:45):
I will come up Heayday, Halla, lou yo, wanna payday, Hi,
I will come up payday someday.
Speaker 1 (51:54):
Obviously, we're doing Minnesota in Arizona for.
Speaker 3 (51:56):
The big dog. I was almost there with you. In
the Broncos by think we gotta go Giants, right, Yeah,
like they feel like the more realistic, most veteran team
that could pull off that upset. Let's let's get Atlanta
in there.
Speaker 1 (52:09):
Yeah, that's a good idea. Minnesota, Arizona, Giants, Atlanta.
Speaker 3 (52:13):
Now do you believe in?
Speaker 2 (52:14):
Do you believe in the Jaguars? Or should we get
real sick and go with our Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1 (52:19):
I mean we could do Carolina, we could do Denver.
Speaker 2 (52:23):
Let's go with Panthers because I'm not going to make
this one of our five, but I'm sick of I
just can't stop bend their money line.
Speaker 3 (52:28):
You're let's go Panthers.
Speaker 1 (52:33):
You are disgusting. This whole show is disgusting.
Speaker 3 (52:36):
I love that. I love that five.
Speaker 1 (52:43):
I don't know do we have to talk about Survivor.
I don't even want to bring it up.
Speaker 3 (52:46):
I'm back in.
Speaker 2 (52:47):
I bought into a one just so I can keep
it going because I did feel bad. Shockingly people, we
have one People's Survivor contest. Last year we had a
couple of people win thanks to me and Chad not
being total idiots to start the season. For me, what
I'm personally doing if you didn't use it yet, I
am going Cincy if you had used them. I'm gonna
go forty nine Ers, like the forty nine ers against
(53:07):
this Rams team. This RAMS team might be shutting it
down pretty soon, so I'm gonna take take the whatever
it is minus three point fifty five.
Speaker 3 (53:17):
Now it's up to this forty nine Ers team to
win out right in that game. So my two Cincinnati
the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 1 (53:24):
Scoot roulette. Last week you had the Cowboys minus three.
I had the Broncos plus two and a half. But
in uh the Rollover World Believe in week one, you
had Philadelphia minus two and a half and I had
Tennessee plus four. So you get to choose first again.
Speaker 3 (53:44):
All right, keep it simple, stupid, I'm gonna go Lamar Ravens.
I just can't see them start zero for three, so
I'm gonna take the minus one.
Speaker 1 (53:52):
Wow. Then I think I will go with the Miami Dolphins.
I'm just I'm putting it in the script's official. I'm
taking the Miami Dolphins. Evan Abrams saved me from myself.
Director of research man meed some final words to make
us feel good about something. The last word with Evan Abrams.
(54:16):
We're finished talking.
Speaker 4 (54:18):
Just one fun note, So you talked about Mahomes not
being the same type of quarterbacks. Of thirty two quarterbacks
this year, average depth of target, the lowest is Jayden Daniels,
second lowest is Mahomes. It's five point oh for Mahomes.
For reference, rookie year was nine point one, twenty twenty
two was seven point four. It's five this year.
Speaker 3 (54:37):
So two.
Speaker 4 (54:38):
It's just ridiculous how a different quarterback he's been. And
then to answer your question, Simon before two to zero
at home, oh and two on the road. When you're
at home in that week three last twenty years, the
average line is seven point six. So yeah, when you're
talking about Denver, Jacksonville, those types of games, the line
probably should be a little bit higher for what it's worth.
So you're right, all right into spiel. So, as John
(55:00):
Harbass said this week, the NFL season is a race
to improve, and that is exactly what the Panthers are
trying to do. So we're gonna talk to Carolina right now.
So the Panthers have gotten blown out twice to start
the season. Over the last thirty five years, we've seen
thirty nine teams lose by two touchdowns or more in
weeks one and two. Those teams in Week three are
twenty five, thirteen and one against the spread sixty six percent.
(55:23):
But to me, there's just way more than that because
of the Bryce thing, right, So I think it's worth
touching on that. Since twenty twenty two, there have been
thirty nine quarterbacks with at least five hundred total plays.
Dalton and Bryce are on the list in terms of
EPA per play, which is just expected points added. Bryce
is dead effing last. Andy Dalton is twenty first in
(55:43):
terms of success rate, which is simply yards gained depending
on what down it is, got to gain more yards
as the downs go by. Bryce Young dead effing last.
Andy Dalton is actually eleventh on that list. So call
all the toy story fans. Andy's back. All right, Let's
talk about the Jaguars for a second. So Josh Allen
(56:05):
has closed as a favorite of four points or more
twenty six times over the last three full seasons. Bills
are eight seventeen and one against the spread in those games.
Of the forty six quarterbacks to close over four points
in any game in that span, that is the single
worst ats mark, so understand where you guys are coming
from on the Jags. Now to talk about one bonus
nugget with the Jaguars, which I literally found last night.
(56:27):
Doug Peterson is actually thirteen and three against the spread
as a dog at night, best of one hundred and
thirty six coaches last twenty years. And he's actually three
and one against the number with Lawrence, So decent spot there.
And then I had to use this one. So here
are five random quarterbacks. JP Lossman, Patrick Ramsey, Kevin Cobb,
(56:47):
Dennis Dixon, and Kenny Pickett. What do they all have
in common? They all were pretty terrible, but they're all
above five hundred against the spread in their careers. Sometimes
you just have to bet really bad quarterbacks. Now we
talk about the Miami Dolphins, it's simply gonna give you
one stat.
Speaker 1 (57:03):
Backup.
Speaker 4 (57:03):
QB's catching four points or more in their first start
for a team. Two and oh this season, justin Fields
week one, Malik Willison week two. Now we get Skylar Thompson.
But those quarterbacks eighty three, fifty eight and two fifty
nine percent twenty thirteen, just hold your nose and do
what you gotta do. Skylar Thompson's one and two ATS career.
Speaker 3 (57:24):
Time to get even.
Speaker 1 (57:25):
I'm so in on the Jaguars. I don't need to be.
Speaker 3 (57:28):
Lud Evn's gotta be fired up. I wasn't as much,
but Evans Evan's got.
Speaker 1 (57:32):
I'm way too far deep on the Jaguars at not
even the best number on the boy, I'm.
Speaker 3 (57:36):
Already looking forward to us sweating out of Landa and
the Jags.
Speaker 1 (57:39):
Oh my god, we're gonna have miserable Sunday and Monday nights,
No the best terrible. As a reminder of the Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three to six five and
this just in new Bet three sixty five customers now
get two hundred dollars in bonus bet when you bet
five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten
dollars in place a bet for five dollars dollars to
(58:00):
get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three six five.
Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona. Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
(58:24):
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply. Simon and I will be back with our
next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube
page on Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap
the latest and greatest in NFL Week three. Some you
(58:47):
notice that the more we lose, the bigger the audience.
On Sunday night. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever
you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.
Speaker 4 (59:01):
Love you.
Speaker 1 (59:08):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I am live from my Tommy John home studio, and
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
(00:32):
my campadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter. What else?
So I'm in?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Hello, Chad, fix the camera, brother, We're all good to go,
ready to bet some ugly dogs and hopefully, hopefully the
takes are so hot it doesn't overheat the camera once again.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Well listen. I feel like, just in the pre show banter,
I felt like coming into today we would be on
the same page. And I don't feel like we are.
So let's get to it. I'm feeling a little like
a little sad today. Last night was my last curriculum
(01:13):
night as a parent for my kids. My senior had
his curriculum night last night.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
What is curriculum? Is that back to school nights?
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Back to school night?
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Oh my god? I hate the name change. Hate the
name change.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Yeah, I don't know that's what they call it here
in West Harford. I think when you become a when
you become a senior in high school. It's no longer
back to school. It's very serious. It's curriculum night.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Now they should reminded they're still children. They're children. Okay,
it's back to school night. Maybe in college. I get it.
I get when the parents come and visit. They can
give it some name, but that's crazy name change.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Well, listen, whatever it is, it's over for me. So
now all I have to look forward to is what
we do on this show. And I'm already upset. I'm
even more upset because we can't get on the same page. Well,
we'll have to talk it through. There's no one else
in this marriage, Simon, but you and me. All the
outside noise has to go away. You and I have
(02:12):
to come to an agreement. Today, as our NFL Week
three Best Bets episode, Simon and I will narrow down
our five picks in the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand
dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented by bet three
six y five sign up favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com.
We will also get to our foxhole, our Tommy John
(02:32):
Big Balls bet of the Week. Simon's biggest bets are
boosted money line underdog parlay at Bet three sixty five
plus our underdog Round Robin parlay. We're still debating if
we're going to give a survivor because we are so
out of survivor that we didn't want to talk about anymore.
Bets are rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made.
As our friend and volume podcast boss Colin Coward Life
(02:57):
to say.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
There's a sea of money out there.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet
three six five and this just in new Bet three
sixty five customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus
bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo
code Favorite deposit ten dollars in place of bet for
five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
(03:20):
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features,
and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
three six five. Must be twenty one or older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
(03:42):
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply all right Thursdays during the season.
We like to hear how the wise guys are responding
to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are are,
and the pros feel compelled to weigh in. Simon, Well,
(04:05):
I bet there's a lot to discuss shark calls.
Speaker 3 (04:10):
Hello, who's there, I'm talking rain.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Rain telephone range, somebody saying maybe what you do? Man?
Speaker 2 (04:20):
It's more split this week than I thought it was
going to be. Last week, it felt like it was
very one sided. This week, there's a lot of split games.
In one game we're probably gonna pass. And we even
talked about the pros are pretty split on this Chargers
Pittsburgh game, right. I think a lot of people are
looking at the Chargers are a better team and the
better quarterback, and this is a good spot for them,
And I think me and you are a bit a
(04:40):
little bit lost in that one where it's like we
like Pittsburgh but don't know.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
One of our final five.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Uh, you know, the pros absolutely love the Vikings this week, right,
we saw that number open at three and a half.
It's it's down now to most books at two to
two and a half. So uh, not too shocking there.
You know, we'll get into that one more. I think
it has a lot to be with Ryan Fors. But yeah,
pretty crazy that numbers moved so much. So game another game.
(05:10):
We're probably gonna get more into this Raiders Panthers game.
The pros love the Panthers. They loved Andy dolon bounce
back spot. I told you my hesitation is can they
get stops on that defense.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
On that Yeah, so that's thoughts. I think a lot
of pro that thoughts on it.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
So that's why they they're kind of saying that this
Raiders team when the worst run teams in all football,
they're they're a little overrated as well. After that big win,
this spread to them should be closer to three and
a half than it is.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
At four and a half. Five, So pretty interesting that.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
I'm I was a little not not loving that one
where I wanted to be on the Panthers, but it
was just I just thought it was a bad number.
The pros think that's a good number. So if you
if you have any hesitation, I get it. The Panthers
haven't looked like a real team in two weeks. But
that's that's where the pros are back in this week,
the big one. I think I've crossed over Chad to
the Ravens side. The pros love the Ravens obviously. Lamar
(06:03):
twenty and one straight up against the NFC. I think
most professionals that jumps out to them, right. He just
historically has won these games against the NFC, and the
one loss he did have if people don't remember, it
was against the Giants. You know, this fluky game where
they were up ten, they lost it in the final
two minutes type of game. So for those early games,
that's where they're at. The game two games we and
(06:25):
Chad love, the Pros love as well.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
Atlanta.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
I thought no doubt this would be in our contest.
I think Chad's come around on it a little bit
as we turn along here. This is definitely a professional
sticking the flag in the game.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
We all the same view.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
There's some major questions right now about this Kansas City offense,
and then Chad's gonna happy to hear this the game
that I was not totally in on, but I'm coming
around with it. Supporting my guy Chad the Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
It's a good number. It should be closer to four.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
It's still at five at most books. Professionals I talked
to that love that number.
Speaker 3 (06:56):
They've already bet it.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
They're hoping right that by Sunday everyone starts putting Buffalo
in their teasers. Everyone starts bend that number up, and
maybe it does get back up the five and a
half six.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
So if you want to wait on that one, I
totally get.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
I'm still grabbing the five now, just in case more
professional money comes.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Out bets it down.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
So yeah, a lot of road dogs this week for
the professional betters.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
This is gonna be a fun. One quick note on
Thursday Night Football from our friend Evan Abrams, director of research,
is going to join us on the show after the
opening week of the season. The New York Jets haven't
closed above a field goal favorite versus a team that
is five hundred or better since twenty twelve, when, by
(07:37):
the way, one of my favorite songs was still on
the Billboard Hot one hundred charts, Thank You Going Crazy.
It's so random that Matt Mitchell chose call me maybe
(07:58):
because no joke. My wife and I were out Saturday night.
We were listening to live music here in the Harford area.
We're fun like that. The couple we were with someone
said that she loved to sing karaoke. I said, I
had a list of like karaoke go tos. Call me
maybe is on the list. What do you think about?
(08:18):
Oh God, Sam, and you're learning so much today about me.
I never fail to disappoint.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
I just love how different our lives are. Like I
think I dropped LSD on Monday, and when did karaoke?
And Chad's out here saying call Me Babies, one of
my favorite songs. We're just in totally different worlds right now,
my friend, we.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Could not be living a more different life. That's so funny.
All right, let's get to our final five. I'll tell
you right now. This game, Denver at Tampa. Denver's a
six and a half point dog. I love this game
so much. I love everything about this game. I don't
know how we are not going to put it in
our final five, Simon, Like I know we are afraid
(08:58):
bo Nicks can't throw a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
He just undressed all the way around. Look at that,
he just got it handed to it.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
This is the biggest luck rankings game on the board.
Of all the ways we can slice and dice the
the luck rankings home versus away, the delta in our
overall luck rankings between unlucky and lucky early in the
season versus late in the season, the team in Denver
(09:28):
spot covers sixty four plus percent of the time. Our
rankings have the Buses the luckiest, the Broncos as the
second most unlucky. Videvea out Anchwine Winfield banged up or
either out or playing very hurt. Boenick started against two
(09:49):
really good defenses. Is he now getting a break? Simon?
I need you to be my betting buddy on this.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Yeah, I would say, my only hesitation check. That is
what is going on in college football. These rookie qbs
keep getting worse. That's my fear, Like these these kids
all look lost, and I'm worried that because of the
way the betters are in this new waterin. I mean,
Evan could even talk about the end of the show.
This back in the day would have been a ten
(10:18):
point spread. In what world? Is this not a ten
or eleven spread? And that's what's really pissing me off here.
It's like I agree with the number. I make it seven.
So yeah, I have value towards this Bucks team. But
you just nailed it, like bon Nick should be able
to move the ball against his team, Jared Goff. I
think he was one for seven in the red zone, right,
that was the struggle of that game. So you're able
(10:39):
to move this ball against his Buck team. But it's
like if they're gonna do with the Patriots thing of
you know, the Belichick way of just once the team's
get in the red zone, they're done. We've seen that
with boon Knicks. Now, it's just he struggled when he
gets down there. So that's my hesitation. Jet Other than that,
I agree with everything you've said, like why would we
not buy low on this bronc Ghos team? Why would
(10:59):
we not sell this Bucks team that clearly got lucky
to not only win that game, but you know win
the way they did, right.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
They their defense.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Has so many injuries, So you can get me around
to it. It's just you're throwing out three or four
really ugly dogs this week that are big numbers. We
got to pick one or two and we can't take
all three or four, right, we can't take the Jaguars, Panthers,
and the Broncos.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
That's that's usually doesn't work out well for us.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
We just blindly take these gross dogs, which I do
agree with them, but it's tough trying to cipher through
all them. It's like, Okay, at least I'm getting a
bigger number on some other guys that I do have
more confidence in. Like I know it's crazy to say,
but I do have more confident confidence in Andy Dalton
than I do in a bow Knicks type. So that's
just what I'm trying to save us from. I do
agree with the luck rankings though, right this is this
(11:47):
definitely makes sense. This one team, the Bucks have been
lucky to start the year, where Denver has had some
bad luck.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
But that's that's my hesitation.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
Chad, all right, Well, they're not in the final five yet.
I do think we've got a couple of games that
we feel really good about the final five that we
are going to get to. I feel very good about
the Broncos, a little nervous because I don't think that
line is going to be any better than six and
a half in the contest. I haven't bet it yet
(12:15):
because I'm waiting for the number to go back to seven.
I think it will get there. It's trending that way.
The juice is sort of in indicator that it's going
to go back to seven. But man, I want to
bet this game so bad. Guess what. Guess what? Simon, Yes, sir,
it is time. It is time for our big balls
(12:36):
bet of the week resented by Tommy John. If you've
got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games
start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest
(12:57):
as you guys know, all right, Houston at Minnesota. Minnesota's
plus two massive pros. Joe's split here sixty five percent
of the bets on the Texans, seventy percent of the
money on the Vikings. That's why the line has moved
(13:18):
from three and a half on Sunday night to two
and a half, now down to two. You convinced me
of this. I was a little bit nervous because I
was anxious about the line movement. I think it's moved
a little bit too much for me to feel comfortable
going all in on it. But for the contest, you
feel like we're ready to roll. State your case, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Yeah, I feel it is nice for forgetting especially two
and plus two and a half in the contest. But
this is not so much banking on Sam Donald, right.
I think he'll keep doing what he's been doing, and
you know, the hope is that they'll have their wide
receivers back and everyone will be good to go. And
if obviously there's some late scratches mean chatter, happy to
switch this one out. But Brian Bryan Foryes, I mean,
(14:03):
we haven't really talked about it, what he's done through
two games with this defense, and even last year. I mean,
I couldn't believe how they were so good last year
when they just had a bunch of nameless people.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
And it's kind of carried over to this season. Right.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
He's turning turning guys into names and putting people in
the right positions. And it's the exotic blick pack blitz
packages they're running right now that's really working. And in
his career, you know, he's done well against these first
year year two quarterbacks. So it makes more sense than
you dive into why this number is calling down. I
know that public perception is Houston's a much better team.
(14:36):
You know, this is a team people project go to
the Super Bowl. The books know that, right, there's a
reason they're over to this year on the spread, and
each non cover is by half a point shot. Like
the books kind of know what they're doing here with
this this Houston team, right, they know that.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
The public money will come in.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
So the fact that they've moved it down even though
they know comes Sunday, a lot of money's men come
pouring in because why would you not bet CJ on
the road and is less than two points against Sam Donald? Right,
It's it's a spot that I see them taking position
on the public. So I want to grab it now.
I would grab it now just because I do think
(15:12):
professional one will keep coming down. This number will keep
getting bet down. So yeah, I really love this star
big ball is bet It's just it's a tough one
for me to swallow because it is Sam Donald. But
it's like, I can't believe me and Chad now are
backing him in this spot under a field goal against CJ.
So Chad knows though, we don't like backing CJ on
(15:33):
the road, especially in a game where he's a favorite.
So trusting the number, trusting this Vikings defense in the spot.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
That's what we're doing this week. We're getting back to
the basics. We're trusting the numbers, We're trusting our instincts.
We're not being swayed by our bias against quarterbacks. I
have been saying for over a year now, I think
Kevin O'Connell is underrated as a coach, and I think
he's fine starting to get a little bit of recognition
(16:02):
because of what he's doing with Sam Darnold through two
games that is similar to what he was doing last
year with his rotation of quarterbacks and keeping the Vikings
in playoff contention after Kirk Cousins was injured. So, Minnesota Vikings,
they are big Balls bet of the Week our sponsor
(16:26):
Tommy John. They give me the kind of support I
need and make me comfortable enough to invest in the
Minnesota Vikings as our big Balls Better the Week. You
guys know, this is the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn.
You love Simon or if you love this show, you
love Tommy John. Get twenty five percent off your first
(16:48):
order right now at Tommy john dot com slash favorites.
Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
One more stat for you from Evan Minnesota Vikings dogs
in this spot, undefeated versus undefeated in Week three, thirteen
(17:08):
to nine against the spread, home teams fourteen and eight
against the spread. So there is a little bit of
trendiness to back up Minnesota Vikings. You mentioned off the top,
the Chargers and the Steelers. I almost just want to
skip this game. What. I don't think it's going to
make our final five. The line has moved in the
direction of the Chargers. The line is now one and
(17:30):
a half open to two. There's more money than tickets
on the Chargers, so I feel like it's wise guys
moving it, especially when the money came in the early
side of the week. I just feel like it's too
hard to play this game. Too many things up in
the air for me.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Yeah, this is a fun game, And honestly, if you're
between professional betters, right, this is an old school news
school mentality, the news school with that bets, trends and
situational football. They love Herbert in this type of spot, right.
He's actually performed well going from west to east as
a covering machine. And I think just the old school
guys I talk to, they'll love Pittsburgh here they're viewing
(18:08):
it of you know, they have good intel that Herbert's
banged up and he's kind of toughing it out right
the new hardball way, that he's going to play through
this bad ankle in this spot. And it's just it's
hard for me not to like Pittsburgh. But I know
the hesitation.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
Right.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
We haven't seen Justin Fields have to make a completion
down three points at all this season, right, They've been
up in every game he's played in, So understand the hesitation.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
I get why. I mean, you are a little getting
a little cold feet on it.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
But you know, maybe Sunday this would be a shocker
if this is somehow made into our one with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
That's why I still liking this game.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
But I agree with Chad right now, there's five other
games I like better than we just sit here today.
But I just want people to understand that it's it's
a game that is split, right, and if you're having
a tough time with it, so other professionals, I'm just
I prefer Pittsburgh in the spot on Tomlin rather than
backing this horriball team that I feel like has gotten
(19:05):
a little lucky to start the year. Rather than Pittsburgh
that feels like their defense has earned every win for
them this season.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Well, look, you've got JK. Dobbins who is running like
he's superhuman, and you've got a defense that has looked great.
We don't know yet if that Raiders team they beat
up on Week one is the Raiders team and offense
that excelled against the Ravens or was terrible against the Chargers.
(19:33):
We don't know yet if the Ravens defense, which we've
said is not nearly as good as it has been
the past. We do know that the Steelers have stolen
two games because of their defense, so that is unquestionable.
And we know that Tomlin is a great coach against
the spread, and we know that that defense is going
(19:54):
to show up, especially if TJ. Watt is. There a
lot of questions on this one. If it got to
pick all and if on Sunday it's at half, you know,
Steelers minus a half. Maybe I do think there's going
to be at least six other games that we feel
better about than the Steelers come come Sunday. One of
(20:15):
those games Philadelphia at New Orleans Eagles now at two
and a half point dog, massive swing and this is
fifty to fifty split everywhere, money, tickets, everything. You leaned
the Saints on Sunday night when the line was Saints
(20:39):
plus two and a half. Yeah, I know, it's now
moved five points. This feels like such an overreaction and
such a letdown spot for the Saints. Like the Eagles
are the side here at this point.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
Yeah, it's definitely let down spots with Saints and Eagles
do flick the side.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
But the move does feel.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
Warrant in the sense that their offense is different without
a J. Brown, right, that deep threat is taken away,
that that is a big deal for this Eagles offense.
So I get the movement, but you're right, like you
couldn't have more opposite teams right now?
Speaker 3 (21:22):
Right the Saints, How did they not feel themselves? Right?
I mean, this is a team that I mean, I
can't remember. I can't.
Speaker 2 (21:29):
I'm trying to think of a team that's done this before,
Like we just didn't see a team coming. They put
up back to back weeks of over forty points.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
I'm running through my mind. I really can't think of
on the Rams, right.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
Kurt Warner out of nowhere, honestly slower and we kept
waiting for that team to break. Right. We kept waiting
like you didn't because you know, you were five. But
me as an old person, like you know, that's the season.
I was writing the book The Odds, and I was
in Vegas every single week and watching bookmakers try to
(22:07):
adjust as fast as they can and then sweating the
liability because they had opened the Rams to win the
Super Bowl at two hundred to one, and so every
single week they were trying to play catchup on this
team and you couldn't, like, you couldn't move the number
fast enough. So I think it presents a real problem
(22:28):
for people like you and the rest of the professional
betting community on the Saints, because everyone was so down
on the Saints, to the point where some people were
picking them to be last in the NFC South. All
of a sudden, do you have to like grade the
Saints better than the Niners, better than the Eagles, better
(22:50):
than the Lion, Like it's a massive adjustment you might
have to make.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Yeah, And it's I agree that with what you're saying
at the very the beginning, which is like this line
moved too much and you know hoping we talked on
Tuesday Show. I was really hoping that it would stay
at three and maybe we would get the bump up
at three and a half. But you just saw that
eventually professional money was going to come in and take.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
That number of three. So I like this game. There
is another game where it's because it's.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
So early in the season, I don't have the most
confidence I would later in the season where it's you
see this Eagles team having some growing pains, not just
defensively but offensively, and this matchup actually is a pretty
decent matchup for this Saint's team offensively about what they
can do against this Eagles defense, because Eagles don't have
(23:38):
any pass rush and we've seen Derek Carr if he
wants to do well, it's when he has no pressure
that's really.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
When he succeeds.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
So he hasn't had to face any type of pass
rush because his team has been up fourteen to three
and back to back games to start the game. But
I'm with you, Chad, this this Eagles team, you expect
to bounce back and at best this should probably be
a pick on, but public reaction has moved this so
many points right, and that the books they need to.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
Protect against that. So if you are scared off about
these Eagles at two and a half right making a
teaser leg. But to me, I'm with Chat. I have
no fear here.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
I think the Eagles pulled the upset off and we
almost put this in our money line, Brown Robin. But
maybe we'll stay there for the end of the show.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
The uh you've been you know, you and I talked
about Philly Sports Radio and Chicago Sports Radio. How to
the weekend? Give me your like have people? People have
been bashing Nick Sirianni for the call for Saquon and
the throw, But why isn't that Kellen Moore's fault. Why
aren't people going after Kellen Moore.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
Because no one knows what Nick Sirianni does.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
That's the thing I think Philly is just we were already,
you know, getting ready to push this guy off the boat,
and you know, now he's just he's on the plank
at this point, like they're really it's just the cause
situation of when it's working, and he says all the
stupid little phrases it works when we're not winning. It's
(25:06):
just it's just a bad look. So I told you,
I don't panic about it. It's so early in the year.
This this feels like the first four weeks really is
preseason to a lot of these NFL teams and coaching staff.
So yeah, the the big issue I had with him
was not taking the three early in the game.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
But you know how I like it.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
I like teams to be aggressive, so you know, obviously
foreshadowing and seeing the future. I didn't realize that was
going to be the decider of the game, that three
points that he passed on there.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
But I'm I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
I I blame cullenm moore, but I don't I'm not
mad at him. But Saquon dropped that I like to call.
I thought it was I thought it was a smart
call in the sense that you know they're going for
the win there. But the pushback I think in Philadelphia
is just Saquon could pick up five seven yards at
a time, why did we keep going away from that
in the red zone and putting the ball in Hurts
hands where it just clearly didn't work in that game.
(25:57):
So another matchup though for the Eagle against the Saints team.
They should be able to run this ball at will
against the Saints team. That's, to me is the biggest
weakness to the Saints team. So as as me and
Ched are back in this team, we need say quant
to have a day and I think we're gonna see that.
Speaker 3 (26:13):
Right.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
This is the ultimate motivational game for a guy who
just had you know, you could say a loss on him.
So I definitely like this bounce backsot for this Eagles
and this offense.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
Saints are only the fifteen since nineteen ninety to go
forty forty opening two weeks of the season. Thank you, Evan.
All right, crazy, we don't have a favorite we love yet.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
You know I have the one favora well, yeah, we'll
sit with.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Green Bay at Tennessee Tennessee minus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
Now, yeah, like.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
I decided, I fell in love with Tennessee after you know,
three days of research. I saw the line got to
two and a half and it was a two and
a half minus one fifteen. So I was nervous the
line was going to go back up to three, and
so I rushed to bet the two and a half
as soon as I put the pick in the app.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
No joke.
Speaker 1 (27:12):
Within three minutes, I got a slack from Matt Treby,
our NFL editor, who also happens to be a native
Wisconsin who told me that Jordan Love was practicing yesterday.
And then that line dropped to two, and then it
dropped to one and a half, which is where it
(27:35):
is now. And now I just feel like a schmuck
because I bet the Titans at two and a half,
the Titans could easily be two and oh right now, Simon,
and I know, like we're nervous about the Jordan Love
factor here, and that's important, but like there are blocked
punts and will Lev's bonehead plays away from being two
(27:55):
and oh. Whatever worked for the Packers as a game
with Malik Willis against the Colts will not work against
the Titans. We don't know Jordan loves status. Maybe there
was a decoy, Maybe he's just getting on the field
to get loose. But this Titans team isn't as bad
as their record suggests.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
Yeah, Hape, you came around. I told you Sunday night.
I loved it.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
But you just said the big thing holding us back
here is Jordan Love. Like that's a five to six
point line movement if he is the quarterback. And that's
why I think professions are taking a position on Green
Bay just in case that does happen.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
It's like, Okay, what does his line go up to.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
A minus three minus three and a half for green Bay?
I mean, that's how big of an upgrade he is. Yeah,
at the quarterback position here, So yeah, to me, if
this is gonna be one of our favorites come Sunday,
I got no problem from this. In chat, you know
how much I love this Tennessee defense, especially up front.
This is a perfect matchup for them going against Green
Bay again.
Speaker 3 (28:53):
Without Jordan Love.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
If it's Jordan Love, we have a little bit of
hesitation there, but yeah, I love it, Chad. So if
we could lock in the contest today though at one
and a half with Tennessee and then you know it
goes it does go up to three when Jordan loves
out me and you will love that, right. That would
be the kind of game that will ruin our Sunday
because we didn't switch it out. Yeah, we should have
for a different game, just because that's going to be
(29:15):
great value on the numbers. So I'm right there with you.
I love Tennessee, have no issue making that our only favorite.
But there is one other favorite I do love, but
this one is definitely at the top. Where it's just defensively.
I love the matchup and it's just Man, we talk
all the time. You got to bet these zero and
two teams straight up, oh and two against the spread
(29:36):
and week agree. There's a couple of teams like this.
Speaker 3 (29:38):
This is one of them. I circle, So I'm with
you Chad on this one.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
We still owe people of Foxhall. I don't think this
is it yet because there's too much yeah certain at
the quarterback position. We talked a lot about the Giants
in Cleveland the other day. Cleveland is six and a
half point favorite. We're still a waiting word on both tackles.
Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis for the Browns, who I
have not played the Giants like. This is a good
(30:06):
spot for them. A lot of luck, rankings advantages. Winless
teams in Week three go sixty percent against the spread
the past twenty years. I don't hate the Giants here
at all. I know like it's ugly, but this is
what we do and we make these hard decisions. No noise, Simon,
(30:30):
no noise. Tuck me off the ledge on the Giants.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
Man, I can't this Browns team just as lost offensively.
I think there are two for fourteen on third downs
against the Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
It's just all bad.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
The total feels very high, and I'm looking at the
money on the site and it's like all the money's
pouring in on the under and it really hasn't move much,
which is a very interesting move by the sportsbooks.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
I'm not seeing what they're seeing here.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
I just see this being a slug it out, ugly
game with two teams that have major questions.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
At the quarterback position right now.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
So you know on that chat, I want the desperate dog,
and there is no more desperate team right now than
the Giants. They knew last week they gave one away, right,
that's a spot that yes, I think historically teams that
score three touchdowns versus a team that does not score
a touchdown usually win those games.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
So man, to be a Giants fan right now, it
must just be absolutely brutal. I can't even imagine. But this,
to me has got everything written about upsets, So this
could squeak into one of our five now the more
I'm thinking about it.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
But it's like these big dogs, right, I think historically
I haven't had an amazing number about it, like these
these dogs of.
Speaker 3 (31:39):
Five and a half or six and a half are
nine to zero one or nine and one this.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Year to start. That's that's pretty crazy, Chad. So it's
going to eventually go the other way at some point.
So not to shock to anyone that we love these
big dogs this week, but there's definitely a reason to
be a little hesitant on just blindly betting all of them.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
This Giants, one of all of them.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
I feel pretty good about, just in the sense that
it's still all about Deshaun Watson. I just don't think
that offense is right yet defensively the Giants, you know,
they had one of the worst secondaries. Can he take
advantage of that? I haven't seen anything to prove otherwise.
So I like where you're at, coming with a six
and n half chat. I could see this being One
War five right now.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
I'm looking at our list and it's Giants, Titans, Broncos, Vikings.
Now we're getting back to it. No more of this,
Jared goff Rock Prety, Dak Prescott, bullshit right, Chicago and Indy,
(32:39):
I think you and I are split on this game. O.
Mine's at one and a half. I just think that
I can't get behind the Bears. Yet I don't love
that the wise guys are backing them. Hungry Bears are
violent Bears. Their rush defense has just not been very good.
That's what I expect the Colts to do and do well.
(33:02):
I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think it's a
home game for Anthony Richardson, a little bit more of
a get right game, And I can find a lot
of value in betting on the Colts.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
Yeah, keep it moving. It won't be one of my
top eight bigger bets of this week.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
So you're right, it's another team Colts I went to
at home, clearly going to be the more desperate team, right, Yes,
if they know if they go for three, the season's
basically over.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
So I get where you're coming from.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
My view of it was just finally, Kayler Williams is
going to play against the defense that can be passed on. Right,
He's just been through the ringer the last two weeks
and he's hearing all the noise.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
So it's just like Ken he finally bounced back.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
And I do think your defense, you know, they might
shruggle against the run, but they're so good in every
other aspect of what they do.
Speaker 1 (33:48):
So amazing. And coverage. Their pass rush has been great.
Like those two elements, they're you know, top five.
Speaker 2 (33:56):
Only they had Jalen Carter. I mean only that's all
they're missing is a de tackle on the middle.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
Miami at Seattle, this line is at four and a half.
I think I think we both felt on Tuesday that
the line had moved too much and there was no
more value. I'm kind of having second thoughts, Okay, you know,
like I like what the Dolphins secondary has been doing.
The Seahawks won't have Kenneth Walker. That the Seahawks I
(34:25):
think are getting a lot of credit for beating the
Broncos and the Patriots. Yeah, and not doing it decisively.
And even with Skyler Thompson, there's still so much more
talent on this Miami team than there was on those
other two teams. Still might be a little bit of
value on this.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
There could be, but yeah, I'm with I'm just not
gonna get there. I'm I tried to even going through
Evans trends and reading all his trends and being like,
there's gonna be something in here to get me on
this Miami team just because it's another team that you know,
they should be owing too. I mean, they got really
lucky that Week one, and it's like, all right, this
is the kind of team I do like to back
(35:06):
in these type of spots because I just said, it's
like the Seahawks, How are they not overvalued? But there
are another team the books have had a pretty good
read on, right, They're They're all also zero and two
against the spread this season to start the year, both
games not covering by half a point. So yeah, I
just I can't. It's just really one of our five,
That's what I'm like trying to think of here, chat.
(35:27):
We really gonna make this one of our five. I
can't do it, but maybe maybe Chad this will be
one of his picks to put in. But as we
see it right now, I got no read on this one.
Speaker 1 (35:37):
Well look, if you asked me to choose between the
Broncos and the Dolphins, I'm one hundred choosing the Broncos.
Speaker 3 (35:44):
I'd rather Yeah, I'd rather the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
You know that's not even a question to me. All Right,
people don't want to hear us talk about this, but
I do think we have to be responsible and talk
about Carolina at the Raiders. Okay, like this number has
moved down from seven to five and a half off
(36:07):
the Dalton news. Now it's down to five. I know
you had this rated at five and a half, so
clearly you're not going to see value on the Panthers
at five. I know we believe this defense can't do anything,
but I do think that just by having Andy Dalton
be the quarterback, you're automatically going to improve the defense's
(36:29):
chances to perform. I listened to Raybund and Stucky on
the Action Pod this morning. Raybund had a stat that
the average field position for Panthers opponents has been the
thirty nine yard line. The Panthers the opponent's thirty nine
yard line, So like, you got to think it'll be
(36:50):
better just from field position perspective, they'll be in a
better position to stop the pass, to rush the passer.
I don't know. I don't know. Like if we were
truly unfeeling, unemotional traders, yeah, working for Bill Ackman and
(37:14):
one of the biggest hedge funds in the world, and
we were committed, we would bet the Panthers. Here, We're
not gonna do it because we don't want our audience
to fully revoke, but you know, we should bet the Panthers.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
A little bit.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
But it's also like you got a good number at
the seven or six and a half on the Panthers.
Now you're kind of getting a bad number. But I
get what they're saying too, like Chris talking about this
kind of spot for Andy and this team. Like we've
seen this right where the new quarterback comes in and
does give a new little pop to a team. And
you know, the Raiders coming off that insane win against
the Ravens, you expect to let down the final week, right,
(37:52):
They're gonna be feeling themselves all week here.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
But I don't know.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
My problem is I probably watched too much of the
all twenty two of this Panthers team, and it's just
everything Like the only guy that felt like he was trying,
that's not fair. The offensive line has been trying the
whole time. But like there's a couple of times that
these guys running routes would just take the routes off.
You expect that to be different here with Andy Dalton.
The wide receivers I lost total confidence.
Speaker 3 (38:14):
Are Bryce Shunk's.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
I really haven't seen what the Panthers are because it
feels like their team would give up midway through the
second quarter. So this Raiders team, this is a big
number for this team to be getting, right. They aren't
one of the best teams in football. Their team is
still trying to figure out their own shit right now.
So man, there's just other dogs I like more than
this Panthers team.
Speaker 3 (38:32):
That's the hardest part. He is trying to get there
on this number. It's just it's hard for me to do.
They're so bad. This team is so bad. Like defensively,
it's so bad.
Speaker 1 (38:43):
It's going back to the girlfriend again and again and again,
no matter how many times you've been burned, matter how
bad she makes you look to your friends, what is
wrong with this dude? He's such a sucker. They just
keep getting me. All right, we'll put it on the list.
(39:06):
Baltimore at Dallas. I hate this game. They are the
Dallas Cowboys, a free wheeling All American Star kiss team.
I feel like there's new defensive coordinators on both sides.
There's no running game to speak of. The Cowboys backfield
is terrible. I think there's a huge identity crisis on
(39:27):
all sides of the ball for both of these teams.
We have four identity crisis happening, crises prices are happening.
Speaker 2 (39:36):
I think the Ravens have just had bad luck. That's
honestly what it is to me. Right, they missed winning
that first game by toe. The last game, they're up
ten and then it just all went wrong in the
final four minutes of that game, like Lamar gans sacked
and the punt I think they punted like twenty yards
to give the Raiders a short field.
Speaker 3 (39:53):
They just went It all kept.
Speaker 2 (39:54):
Going wrong for this Ravens team where I think we
talked about coming to the season, we had major questions
about their defense because they were so thin, especially the
defensive line that you know they don't have guys to
switch in and out right. If that top unit is
gas and doesn't have it early on, it feels like
Dallas can be cooked on defense. So Derrick Henry has
not been as bad as people perceive. Like this running
(40:15):
game isn't as horrible as people think it is for
this Ravens team.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
And let's throw some status to you. Maybe I can
I can get you the other side.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
Lamar when it's the spreads under three points or less
two and a half, where he's an underdog. He's twenty
two and seven against the spread against the NFC. Chad,
he's twenty and one straight up. This is a straight
up line.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
It's one.
Speaker 2 (40:36):
So yeah, is this feel a little trappy a little
bit because me and Chad went to be on Dallas here,
But then you see Cede Lamb didn't practice yesterday because
he had a bad ankle, and it's.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
Just like, oh my god, I mean, come on, if
CD's not right in this matchup, that's got.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
To be a huge win for this Ravens team. It's
just what is the identity on offensive? CD's not right
for this Dallas team?
Speaker 3 (40:59):
Right? He is, to me, the key to that offense.
It makes everything go.
Speaker 2 (41:03):
As much as we want to say it's all Dak,
It's like CD's the one that makes the big plays
out of nothing.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
So I think I'll be able to get you there.
Maybe on Sunday I could get you to get it
in there now.
Speaker 2 (41:13):
But all my all the favorites this week, obviously I
put Titans number one if it's Malik Willis, but number
two right there is the Ravens. I just they're oher
and two against the spreadshat oh and two straight up.
It's horball. I mean, we have to take them in
the spot. This is what we always take the Ravens
in this. No one believes in us back against the
wall spot. But I understand your hesitation. It's just the
(41:37):
vibes are so bad. No one would be shocked if
they're oh and three to start the year. But man
Lamar in this spot, historically we have the numbers that
back it up.
Speaker 3 (41:47):
He does very well.
Speaker 1 (41:49):
I worry about this defense. The Ravens defense.
Speaker 3 (41:55):
Totally totally get it. I mean we just saw Minshew
go up and down the field on them, so it's
I I have no rebuttal against it. But no, it's
it's it's bad right now for the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (42:06):
We haven't chosen a foxhole yet and the final two
games on our list are already chosen as an exact decision,
and Simon says, so we do have to get into
a foxhole here.
Speaker 3 (42:16):
Who do you think for foxhole? Then you want to
do Eagles And I know you're not here on the Ravens,
but we're both on the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (42:21):
I'm also not afraid of the Giants. I know you
won't be in the foxhol with me on the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (42:28):
I'm gonna bet it, but it's gonna be a little
baby bet. I'm just oh man, these rookie qbs are
so bad, Chad, I can't I can't get over how
bad they are.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Is I'd rather be in the foxhole on Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (42:39):
Okay, I'm with you on that one. Then all right,
we're going to.
Speaker 1 (42:42):
The foxhole on the Tennessee Titans running the foxhol Let's
climb down into the foxhole. All right. Last couple of
games here, Detroit at Arizona. I still see nothing. I
know you like saying Arizona. I get I have no field.
This line has it moved. I don't see anything in
the numbers. I don't want to do it.
Speaker 3 (43:05):
No, it's fair.
Speaker 2 (43:06):
I like Arizona in the sense that to me, they've
been the more consistent team offensively, I think they know
exactly what the identity is. Detroit just feels lost. I mean,
this is the perfect get right spot for Detroit. That's
why I'm not pounding the table for this one. But
I love Arizona. Pull the upset off here. It's just
if they have the ball. Last, I have confidence in
(43:27):
Kyler Murray in this offense right now that he does
have the weapons, and if they get a lead even
more so like that James Connor a run attack with
Kyler Good. Yeah, it's pretty damn good. So my only hesitation,
which I feel like you have the same, is this
Arizona defense might be absolutely awful. And yeah they beat
(43:48):
up on a Rams team that had their third stringers
on the left tackles position. Yeah, now they have the
best offensive line of football coming in in a get
right spot.
Speaker 3 (43:56):
So totally understand your hesitation. Shed.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
Obviously, if this was three and a half, I think
I'd be able to talk into this for contests right now.
I checked those two and a half in contest, I
just me and you both are like, h we don't
need to put that one in.
Speaker 1 (44:08):
No, definitely not Atlanta, Kansas City. We're definitely going to
play Atlanta at three and a half. That was your
Simon says the Atlanta Falcons were typified by the players
who consistently made.
Speaker 3 (44:21):
The big play.
Speaker 1 (44:22):
Look, it's been getting a ton of money on the
on the Falcon side. It moved from four and a
half really off of the Monday night game. But I
think the Chiefs run defense is in trouble. I think
that the Falcons offensive line is the best rush offensive
line in the NFL, especially interior on the right side.
I think we saw what they could do when Bijon
(44:44):
is the primary focal point against the Eagles. I think
the Chiefs and you said this best, like, they're still
figuring out who they are and this is when you
this is when you get them, and now Pacheco being out,
they still really don't know who they are. Offensively, they
Travis Kelsey hasn't been involved. They have one down that
downfield thread and ma Shei Rice. We don't know what
(45:06):
Xavier Worthy is yet. Patrick Mahomes hasn't been that good. No, yeah,
Atlanta go. Simon says it's him.
Speaker 2 (45:14):
Yeah, that's my biggest reason, right is Mahomes factor. I
just don't think he's looked right. I don't think it's
getting any better in this spot here. I still think
he just doesn't feel comfortable right now with that. They
don't know who their left tackle is and that's a
big deal. And obviously, you know, defensively, Chad just touched
on it, there are some gaping holes in this defense
that can be exploited and perfect run blocking scheme here
(45:36):
for this Atlanta team to exploit it. So my only
hesitation at all is still Kirk Cousins as well as
he did against the Eagles. We saw the Eagles had
no pass rush, right, it was only up the middle
they had any type of pass rush, and the veteran
Kirk Cousins was able to step around it. We never
really saw what he had to do when he was
forced outside the pockets. So that, to me is the
only fear with this. Everything else, I love the number,
(45:58):
love the spot team. Sunday night Primetime. Every Joe Schmo
is gonna be going in there throwing the chiefs and
at the end of the day on their parlay or
their teaser ticket.
Speaker 3 (46:08):
Right.
Speaker 2 (46:08):
So my only hope was this would go up. But
the reason I made it, Simon says, was, you know,
I talked to a couple of really wise, sharp guys
and they were just like, now I'm gonna I'm gonna
hammer this Atlanta line. This is gonna keep going down.
Speaker 3 (46:19):
It hasn't. Right, There's been enough public money to keep
this up.
Speaker 2 (46:22):
Like I'm looking right now, it's over seventy five percent
of the bets, eighty percent of the money at a
couple of books right now is on this Chiefs team.
So that makes sense, right, The more public books are
getting hammered on the chief line while the sharper books
are getting a ton of a land of money. So
I'm glad you come around on it. I know that
it probably helped that Nick had the landa here in
the luck ranking, so he did by the way that
(46:44):
he came around on a chef.
Speaker 1 (46:46):
And this morning, you know, I told you that I
bet with a couple of friends. Yeah, and one of
them saw me put Atlanta in the action app. My buddy, Josh,
and you've been hammering me this morning. I'm not going
to question your judgment as the chief investment officer of
(47:07):
our fund, but why are we betting Atlanta plus three
and a half against Kent City Chiefs? And then I
went to this explanation.
Speaker 2 (47:16):
I'll say, text back long term winner mathematically, this is
this is we always talk about.
Speaker 3 (47:21):
This is where you want to fade mahome number.
Speaker 1 (47:23):
And by the way I did, I'm like, look, historically
you were going to win money if you fade Patrick
Mahomes is more than a three point favorite. But then
there's all these other things. So We've done it. It's
happening at Lanta, is in lock it in it in
the Jags. I'm glad you're coming around on the Jags
the way I did. Oh it's tough, it's but you're
(47:43):
with me. You're with me because twenty it all or no?
Speaker 3 (47:46):
Have you watched the Jags all twenty two at all?
Speaker 4 (47:48):
Or no?
Speaker 1 (47:50):
I have not watched the Jags.
Speaker 3 (47:51):
Oh my god.
Speaker 2 (47:53):
I mean, I know, Eva keeps telling us that fair
Trevor Lawrence in the second half, even their game script
to start the game.
Speaker 3 (47:58):
All of it was just so bad.
Speaker 2 (48:00):
So this makes me feel sicker than your Broncos bet
no way. Yeah, it could all be really bad right
now for Jacksonville, brother, but it's early in the year.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
I try not to react because I always say this.
These first four weeks I kind of treat as a preseason.
Same with the players.
Speaker 2 (48:16):
Trevor had moments and he has guys open. He just
was sailing passes. It was really it was really bizarre.
So this, though, is the classic spot where the Bills
let let down everybody. Right, They're on like eleven days
rest after a huge divisional win on the road. That's
why I'm getting so behind the check because it does
feel like another game where it's like same with that Eagles, Right,
(48:38):
we talked about that Eagles Houston two team teaser. Who
is going to lose it? This feels like the same spot, right,
Who's gonna break this Monday Night Cincinnati Bill's teaser. I
just can't see the Bengals losing and going oh to
three against Washington. With the Bills dropping this game to
an zero to two Jaguars team, I can I can
(48:59):
see him just match up wise, there are things they
can do defensively, right, they have the athletic dns that
can give Josh Allen issues, and Josh Allen's been playing
like the MVP.
Speaker 3 (49:10):
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
there's no feel, no way. That's the hesitation for me.
Speaker 2 (49:17):
But you know, we both agreed on the Bills have
had such injuries to their defense, there are ways to
attack this team. So if Trevor Lawrence can't get right here,
me and Chad might add into the list. Right if guys,
we're just not gonna betting for a little while. So
this is definitely a show to me, Trevor Lawrence. We're
playing the number. You can still get five five and
a half in a couple of books. I love that
(49:38):
this is still above four to four and a half,
So I'll take that number.
Speaker 1 (49:41):
Check Bill's six luckiest team in the NFL Jacks twenty
ninth or fourth most unlucky. They actually averaged a yard
and a half more than the Browns last week. The
Browns got lucky, went three for three on fourth down.
The Jags went one to four in the red zone.
We just have to believe it's at some point some
(50:01):
of this goes the other way. Either Trevor Lawrence, I.
Speaker 3 (50:04):
Mean, it's been what a year and a half now
a year?
Speaker 1 (50:06):
Been a year. Yeah, Like Trevor Lawrence and we talked
about Barnwell's column. Bill Barnwell from ESPN had a great
summary of Trevor Lawrence's challenges in the quick passing game,
meeting when he's got to get the ball off less
than two and a half seconds. He has not been good,
and he has not been good in the red zone,
and this team has been in the red zone. Some
(50:27):
of that has to eventually regress the other way. It
will be this week against the Buffalo Bills. Western New
York's finest shout out Matt Mitchell. All right, turning good
weekends into great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay.
(50:50):
Our boosted underdog money line parlay. Our sponsor Bet three
six ' five gives our underdog money line parlay an
odds boost this season. Bet three sixty five will have
that highlighted on their site. Are week three boosted Underdog Parlay?
In deference to my bff, Simon Hunter, we are going
(51:13):
with the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings. Both games
are eligible for Bet three six five's early payout promo,
where your money line pick gets marked as a win
if they take a seventeen point lead, even if they
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to bet this better at Bet three six five. All right,
let's do our money line underdog round Robin.
Speaker 2 (51:37):
There will come up Heayday, hallelu yo, wanna pay day?
Speaker 1 (51:41):
There will come up payday someday, someday there.
Speaker 4 (51:45):
I will come up Heayday, Halla, lou yo, wanna payday, Hi,
I will come up payday someday.
Speaker 1 (51:54):
Obviously, we're doing Minnesota in Arizona for.
Speaker 3 (51:56):
The big dog. I was almost there with you. In
the Broncos by think we gotta go Giants, right, Yeah,
like they feel like the more realistic, most veteran team
that could pull off that upset. Let's let's get Atlanta
in there.
Speaker 1 (52:09):
Yeah, that's a good idea. Minnesota, Arizona, Giants, Atlanta.
Speaker 3 (52:13):
Now do you believe in?
Speaker 2 (52:14):
Do you believe in the Jaguars? Or should we get
real sick and go with our Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1 (52:19):
I mean we could do Carolina, we could do Denver.
Speaker 2 (52:23):
Let's go with Panthers because I'm not going to make
this one of our five, but I'm sick of I
just can't stop bend their money line.
Speaker 3 (52:28):
You're let's go Panthers.
Speaker 1 (52:33):
You are disgusting. This whole show is disgusting.
Speaker 3 (52:36):
I love that. I love that five.
Speaker 1 (52:43):
I don't know do we have to talk about Survivor.
I don't even want to bring it up.
Speaker 3 (52:46):
I'm back in.
Speaker 2 (52:47):
I bought into a one just so I can keep
it going because I did feel bad. Shockingly people, we
have one People's Survivor contest. Last year we had a
couple of people win thanks to me and Chad not
being total idiots to start the season. For me, what
I'm personally doing if you didn't use it yet, I
am going Cincy if you had used them. I'm gonna
go forty nine Ers, like the forty nine ers against
(53:07):
this Rams team. This RAMS team might be shutting it
down pretty soon, so I'm gonna take take the whatever
it is minus three point fifty five.
Speaker 3 (53:17):
Now it's up to this forty nine Ers team to
win out right in that game. So my two Cincinnati
the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 1 (53:24):
Scoot roulette. Last week you had the Cowboys minus three.
I had the Broncos plus two and a half. But
in uh the Rollover World Believe in week one, you
had Philadelphia minus two and a half and I had
Tennessee plus four. So you get to choose first again.
Speaker 3 (53:44):
All right, keep it simple, stupid, I'm gonna go Lamar Ravens.
I just can't see them start zero for three, so
I'm gonna take the minus one.
Speaker 1 (53:52):
Wow. Then I think I will go with the Miami Dolphins.
I'm just I'm putting it in the script's official. I'm
taking the Miami Dolphins. Evan Abrams saved me from myself.
Director of research man meed some final words to make
us feel good about something. The last word with Evan Abrams.
(54:16):
We're finished talking.
Speaker 4 (54:18):
Just one fun note, So you talked about Mahomes not
being the same type of quarterbacks. Of thirty two quarterbacks
this year, average depth of target, the lowest is Jayden Daniels,
second lowest is Mahomes. It's five point oh for Mahomes.
For reference, rookie year was nine point one, twenty twenty
two was seven point four. It's five this year.
Speaker 3 (54:37):
So two.
Speaker 4 (54:38):
It's just ridiculous how a different quarterback he's been. And
then to answer your question, Simon before two to zero
at home, oh and two on the road. When you're
at home in that week three last twenty years, the
average line is seven point six. So yeah, when you're
talking about Denver, Jacksonville, those types of games, the line
probably should be a little bit higher for what it's worth.
So you're right, all right into spiel. So, as John
(55:00):
Harbass said this week, the NFL season is a race
to improve, and that is exactly what the Panthers are
trying to do. So we're gonna talk to Carolina right now.
So the Panthers have gotten blown out twice to start
the season. Over the last thirty five years, we've seen
thirty nine teams lose by two touchdowns or more in
weeks one and two. Those teams in Week three are
twenty five, thirteen and one against the spread sixty six percent.
(55:23):
But to me, there's just way more than that because
of the Bryce thing, right, So I think it's worth
touching on that. Since twenty twenty two, there have been
thirty nine quarterbacks with at least five hundred total plays.
Dalton and Bryce are on the list in terms of
EPA per play, which is just expected points added. Bryce
is dead effing last. Andy Dalton is twenty first in
(55:43):
terms of success rate, which is simply yards gained depending
on what down it is, got to gain more yards
as the downs go by. Bryce Young dead effing last.
Andy Dalton is actually eleventh on that list. So call
all the toy story fans. Andy's back. All right, Let's
talk about the Jaguars for a second. So Josh Allen
(56:05):
has closed as a favorite of four points or more
twenty six times over the last three full seasons. Bills
are eight seventeen and one against the spread in those games.
Of the forty six quarterbacks to close over four points
in any game in that span, that is the single
worst ats mark, so understand where you guys are coming
from on the Jags. Now to talk about one bonus
nugget with the Jaguars, which I literally found last night.
(56:27):
Doug Peterson is actually thirteen and three against the spread
as a dog at night, best of one hundred and
thirty six coaches last twenty years. And he's actually three
and one against the number with Lawrence, So decent spot there.
And then I had to use this one. So here
are five random quarterbacks. JP Lossman, Patrick Ramsey, Kevin Cobb,
(56:47):
Dennis Dixon, and Kenny Pickett. What do they all have
in common? They all were pretty terrible, but they're all
above five hundred against the spread in their careers. Sometimes
you just have to bet really bad quarterbacks. Now we
talk about the Miami Dolphins, it's simply gonna give you
one stat.
Speaker 1 (57:03):
Backup.
Speaker 4 (57:03):
QB's catching four points or more in their first start
for a team. Two and oh this season, justin Fields
week one, Malik Willison week two. Now we get Skylar Thompson.
But those quarterbacks eighty three, fifty eight and two fifty
nine percent twenty thirteen, just hold your nose and do
what you gotta do. Skylar Thompson's one and two ATS career.
Speaker 3 (57:24):
Time to get even.
Speaker 1 (57:25):
I'm so in on the Jaguars. I don't need to be.
Speaker 3 (57:28):
Lud Evn's gotta be fired up. I wasn't as much,
but Evans Evan's got.
Speaker 1 (57:32):
I'm way too far deep on the Jaguars at not
even the best number on the boy, I'm.
Speaker 3 (57:36):
Already looking forward to us sweating out of Landa and
the Jags.
Speaker 1 (57:39):
Oh my god, we're gonna have miserable Sunday and Monday nights,
No the best terrible. As a reminder of the Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three to six five and
this just in new Bet three sixty five customers now
get two hundred dollars in bonus bet when you bet
five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten
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(58:00):
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can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three six five.
Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona. Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
(58:24):
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply. Simon and I will be back with our
next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube
page on Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap
the latest and greatest in NFL Week three. Some you
(58:47):
notice that the more we lose, the bigger the audience.
On Sunday night. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever
you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.
Speaker 4 (59:01):
Love you.
Speaker 1 (59:08):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
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