September 22, 2024 • 43 mins
What a Sunday across the NFL! Andy Dalton saves the the Carolina Panthers. The Rams shock the 49ers. The Vikings steamroll the Texans. And underdogs of 6 or more improve to 11-1 against the spread so far this season.
Back to recap all the thrills and chills are Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, who discuss another Steelers victory, a pathetic performance from the Tennessee Titans, a resurgent Bo Nix in Tampa, and so much more. Together they recap their contest selections, good and bad, and take accountability once again before Sunday Night Football kicks off.
And In case you're new to the show, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway for a second season! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
We are sweating the end of some games live from
our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chadmllman, Chief Content
Officer of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night
(00:30):
episode in which we review the Phase five's picks we
put into the contest. This morning, we dissect why we
left some games out, preview the early lines we already
like for week four. I'm joined as always by my
co host, my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, the man
(00:51):
who gave out the rams with doctor Nick Giffen on
our afternoon BET What Happens Live, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
So I'm in What a day, jad, dude.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
A miraculous day, A beautiful day. We're not out of
the woods in any respect for our five picks, but
at least like there was not a ton of anxiety
with our picks. We're going to get to that. Catch
every episode of The Favorites Live on YouTube. For those
enjoying it on YouTube right now, don't forget to give
us a life and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
(01:28):
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers can get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when
you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars and place a bet for five dollars
to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
(01:48):
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
three six five. Must be twenty one or older in
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call one
(02:09):
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
Iowa terms, conditions restrictions apply. All right, Here's a fun
little stat that Evan Abrams has been touting our week
that he just put into the script for us. The
Rams have won outright underdogs of six plus points, so
six points or more moved to eleven and one against
(02:32):
the spread, seven and five straight up this season and
during Monday Night Football. The Panthers covered as big dogs today,
the Giants covered as big dogs today, the Broncos covered
as big dogs today. The Giants, the Panthers, the Broncos,
(02:54):
all one outright, and now the Rams insane. He blended
the varied talents of his teammates like a skilled conductor.
He directed them in a classic two minute drill insane day.
What's amazing about this contest, Simon, is that we were
(03:15):
on all these games, and yet somehow, instead of being
four and zero at the end of the day so far,
just playing those games, we're two and one. We have
the Falcons plus three and a half tonight against the Chiefs,
the Jags plus five and a half tomorrow against the Bills.
If you believe listeners, viewers, you could beat our picks
(03:38):
this season. Be our guest. Let us pay you forty
thousand dollars. Sign up for the contest favorites dot Actionnetwork
dot Come. All right, let's run through the games, starting
with the loser. And I got to emphasize here, just
one loser so far through Sunday. I wish I could
(03:58):
say we were undefeated, like I said up there at
the top. Unfortunately, we never even considered taking our losing
team out. In all of these conversations, the good news
was time and this was a no sweat day. As
far as the games we put into the contest from
the outset, the teams we picked either controlled the game
(04:19):
or they were never in it, starting with Tennessee minus
two and a half against Green Bay. Listen, Matt Lafleur
is just a genius. Since nineteen ninety the list of
coaches who are above five hundred straight up as a
(04:45):
dog with at least seventeen games, Matt Lafleur twenty and
fifteen and Mike Tomlin fifty and forty nine. So we're
going to break it down. I'm curious to know sort
of your perspective on all of it, and I'll take
a break from babbling for a second.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
Yeah, I mean, we did have a conversation. We talked
about a couple other favorites. And that's what's fun but
tough about this show, right, it's a partnership. We're both
trying to find games we both like together. And you
know today you definitely planned your flag in Denver where
I like Denver, but you loved it and you were
spot on on that one. I love the Ravens, and
(05:24):
I never could get you there. So we end up
going with Tennessee, which is another game I love. So yeah,
Will Levis throwing a pick six and just being awful.
That's that's life bet in Tennessee. That's they're they're a
bad team right now. So, like you said, that was brutal,
especially in a day where that's our only miss. Everything
else really came through. That's that's a tough one. But
(05:46):
at the end of the day, it's that's gambling.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
You know. I have no regrets with it.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
But yeah, I just you know, going back looking at
our picks, it's like, what could I have said to
make a different But I just don't think I would
have said anything. So no matter what, we were probably
going to be either three and one at this point
or two in one.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Yeah, that to me, I felt like the only game
we might have taken out was the Broncos because I
got this sense the whole time you were not sort
of in love with that pick. I think you really
wanted a seven.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
No I met it, but it was more yeah, like exactly,
I was just like I wish the number was.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Up there, wanted to know you were always going to
bet the game, and we'll get to that game to sack.
But but you just wanted a better number. Yeah, I
ended up. I ended up buying the seven, and you know,
regrettably paid a little extra on the juice. But our
theory with green Bay and this is going to be
I made a note already for Tuesday in our script,
(06:46):
we got to talk about green Bay, what green Bay
is doing on defense, and what a good coach Matt
Lafleur is like. Our theory was that green Bay would
not run the ball as well as did against the
Colts they did. Our theory was that Malik Willis would
not play well as well as he did against the Colts.
(07:08):
He did. Our theory was that this Titans team was
really just a couple of mistakes away from being two
and zero. They're not. Our reality is that we knew
we were stepping into it with will Levis and the
Packers ended up with two hundred nearly two hundred yards rushing.
They averaged five point five yards per carry. Malik Willis
(07:32):
threw for more than two hundred yards ran for seventy
three yards. Levis has a nice looking stat line like
twenty eight thirty four two sixty two touches, also fumbled
and had a pick six, was sacked eight times.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
You did that.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
I letna say, like he had nice stats, but he
nailed it. It's like I thought you'd have a good day.
I thought it was a good matchup for their team,
but the defensive playing whatever it was, was just awful.
And I knew we were in trouble early in the
game where they weren't spying Malik, And it's just like, yeah,
why would you not do that? Of all things to
do with this kid. Don't let him get comfortable running
(08:08):
the ball, because that's gonna give him. Let him build confidence.
And like you just said, lafleur Man, what can you say?
The guy has been incredible, especially when he coaches his
team as an underdog. So yeah, like you said, or
one miss, it's what's so brutal? Or one miss we
we end up putting the contest. And I just there's
(08:28):
no way I could have gone back and have known,
just because same thing we're gonna talk about this upcoming week.
They're oero for three now oh for three against the spread.
This Titans team. Eventually the value will come the other way.
But maybe me and you just stay away until they
make a change of the QB position.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
So it's funny you mentioned that. I would say there
was one point where Callahan, Brian Calhan, the coach who
has been sort of charmingly candid about his feelings for
Will Levis during the week after cussing him out last
week and then saying how much he basically you know,
(09:09):
in not so many words, kind of thought he was
an idiot this week and became a great conversation starter
for everyone in the media. I actually wondered when what
we see the Titans backup quarterback? I was surprised we didn't,
and then I remember I had to look it up.
What was with Mason Rudolph, who, by the way, was
brilliant last year with the Steelers, So why not put
(09:34):
him in? Like give your team a shot when they're
playing so badly. I do wonder if there will be
some kind of conversation in Tennessee now to get Mason
Rudolph in similar to Carolina, right, like get a guy
if you think your team might be close, get a
guy in there who can do something with it. But
(09:56):
Matt Lafleur, God, he is good.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Just this, I know, I love that you just spent
about ten minutes in this game. Though.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
Let's keep it moving, all right, We're gonna talk a
lot more about mattla floor. There's one thing one more.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Than disuption of Mala flora right now.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
It's like, all right, dude, you just beat up Anthony
Richardson and Will Levis and Chad's going ape shit.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
The Packers are also, they are flying to the ball
defensively under Jeff Haffley. They have as many picks in
three games as they did all of last season. That's
seven picks. Pretty good, Yeah, pretty good. All right, let's
talk about some winners. There we go, Denver plus six
and a half of Tampa. No notes, as they say
(10:42):
in Hollywood, no notes.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Denver.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
Denver was nearly flawless, Like, oh yeah, all of the
luck trends that we like to talk about. This was
a thirty point luck gap, meaning the Bucks have been
one of the luckiest, the Broncos have been one of
the least lucky. We can get into all of it.
Tell me what you saw.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
Yeah, first reaction would be we thought what Detroy would do?
What the Denver did right, attack the secondary like there
were holes and openings in the secondary that you could attack,
and they were able to do it.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
But unlike the Lions who kept stowing in the red zone,
they shockingly didn't.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
Right, bon Nicks looked comfortable in the red zone, had
a couple of nice plays, you know, pulling the ball
down and running it, which is what we want to
see out of him, right, I'd rather see him take
a sack in the red zone then him keep throwing
those interceptions. So the most surprising part was just how
bad Baker played. He never looked comfortable. Denver's defense did
are a great job against them, And yeah, Chack giving
(11:46):
you your flowers, Like that's the kind of number where
it's the dream, right when you're when you get a
double digits, when you have a six and a half
point dog, you're just like, I have no worries where
you know we're gonna talk about the vikings. It's never
really that far away because you know we're getting only
a point in a half or two and a half.
But when you have that six and a half, seven
and a half kind of numbers late in these games,
(12:06):
it's just like, you know, there was no way that
we weren't going to cover that number one Denver. So
looking at the matchup wise going forward for them, I
think they learned a lot about, you know, having bone
Nicks kind of just get outside.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
The pocket more.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
I think that was really pretty, you know, pretty telling
in that game that Chempayn wouldn't to do that with him. So, yeah,
once again Denver's defense, that to me is probably the
most shocking part. How well they played against that Bucks offense.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Yeah, I thought they played really well. I thought there'd
be more points scored in the game because Denver's defense
has been good, not great, and because the reason we
liked Denver so much was Vita Vea's out. Another defensive
lineman is out, their secondary is incredibly banged up, and
(12:51):
everything the Lions did wrong Sean Payton did right this
week with bone Nicks. Also, all of the luck trends,
sort of the regressions on turnovers, fourth down conversions, performance
in the red zone, scoring touchdowns, all the things that
(13:12):
they have suffered from or that have happened to them
went their way this week. Like, here's my list of
things the Broncos did that indicated sort of a luck turnaround.
Bon Nick's first three plays three for three fifty nine
(13:32):
yards two plays pass plays of twenty plus yards scored
a rushing TV at the end of the drive, even
after he had had to delay a game in the
red zone after picking off Baker Mayfield, the Broncos and
Bonnicks fumbled. That fumble didn't count because the Bucks were
(13:53):
off sides. They went forward on fourth and goal inches away,
pitched it wide. The guy barely snuck into the end zone.
Like they even got a fumble by Tampa in the
red zone. This was just so enjoyable, Like it was
so stress free. I couldn't have been happier with this game.
(14:16):
I wished every game. I wish this was the only
game that I was watching the whole day.
Speaker 3 (14:21):
Yeah, it's also we got lucky where you know, people
overreacted to a lot of these teams after two games, right,
and I think Bucks is one of those teams. The
Saints again, we'd't even talk about where. You know, I
really like the Eagles and you never got there.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
But I got why. The Saints were pretty damn.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
Scary through two games, and I understood your hesitation with it,
and I thought to myself, Man, they can't be this good.
They're just they had to come back to Earth. I
think just like the Saints the Bucks. We saw Derek
Carr come back to Earth and we saw Baker come
back to Earth. Right, even if Baker had a good
game as a whole, that team, the Bucks have so
many injuries to that defense, it was just like, man,
(14:58):
if they can get the ball moving on Denver here,
I just never thought we would have a problem with
back in that side. And you know, little did we
know that just the Bucks, the whole team wasn't going
to show up today, right, So, like you said, I
think it was what it was, seventeen nothing at one
point or fourteen w whatever it was. I just said
to myself, Okay, Chad nailed this one. That this number
is never going to be a sweat.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Here's the good news. We never have to bet the
Broncos or Boonix again. We've been waiting for the exact
right number and the exact right spot to take advantage
of their number in an overinflation undervalued spot. This was it.
And by the way, you mentioned the Ravens, you mentioned
the Eagles. I do want to like get into those games.
(15:40):
So we are going to get through the last game
that we did bet and that we did win because
I think the games that we left out are just
as fascinating as the games that we put in. So
I do want to get to a bunch of those games. Yeah,
the last game that we bet today in a game reminder,
we got the Falcons tonight plus three and a half
the Jacks plus five and a half tomorrow. In our
(16:02):
favorites contest, we had Houston at Minnesota plus two and
a half. You've been on this since Sunday, like it
was three and a half on Sunday last night when
we did the show. You bet it, then kept betting it.
You were on it today. Unconvinced me. Eleven am Eastern
watching in YouTube in the Action Network app, this was
your best bet of the day on sides, even when
(16:25):
it get down to one and a half. Here's something
my son said to me while we were watching the game.
I don't think there were any odds on anyone saying
this in the world when this season started. Is Sam
Darnold the MVP of the league right now?
Speaker 2 (16:48):
No, but he is playing really good. I'll give him that.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
I mean, you can't hate on it where it's like
he has complete confidence in the offense, and there was
a couple throws in that game where big time throws
right like to the sideline only his guy could catch it.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
Pretty impressive throws.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
But I told you my main reason for liking that spot,
it was definitely Brian Flores in that defense, and you
saw immediately that you know, CJ was not comfortable like that.
Just the different looks he can set up with that
defense and the vikings is you know, to me, that's
been the game changer this season as much as Sam
Donald as well. Like I'm not gonna again, I'm not
trying knock Sam Donald. He's played so well here, but
(17:26):
that that defense really showed up, and you know, you
talked about it like it's it's always a little scary
when we give out these numbers on Sunday and then
I'm betting it all week and then we get to
this point and you're right, it was all the way
down to one one and a half and it's just like, okay,
what at what point does this become the public chalky side?
And luckily a ton of money came in late that
(17:48):
gave me a little confidence on that Houston team where
it's like, okay, at least there are people bet on
the other side, and that was just another no brainer, right.
I think it was fourteen to nothing right from the
get go, and with two turnovers as well, which is
like pretty shocking for that Houston side. And once Sam
kind of got into a groove, that offense was just clicking.
(18:08):
So even when he got banged up he came back in,
he still looked pretty good. That's one thing I'm definitely
gonna be checking for. Is it sounds crazy, but definitely
interested in his injury report and what he's like going forward.
But you know, he played the end of the game,
and you know, we said the same thing about Herbert
last week, and then it popped up this week. They
didn't look right, so I wanted to bet. We'll talk
(18:32):
again the lines coming up. But they're the team I
kind of liked this upcoming week, and now with the
unknown of Sam Donald what his injury might be, they're
definitely a team I'm gonna wait on, not bet right away.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Sam Donald's odds for MVP are fifty to one right now.
His stats through three games six hundred and fifty seven
passing yard, sixty eight percent completion rate, eight touchdowns, only
two picks, A ninety seven yard touchdown pass win against
the Giants, Niners, and Texans.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
That's good.
Speaker 1 (19:06):
Why wouldn't she take a flyer on Sam's Kevin O'Connell
is locked in and he deserves as much credit as
Matt lafleur. They might be the two best coaches in
the NFL right now, Matt Lafloor Jarman O'Connell. Two best
coaches in the NFL are in the same division as
the Bears. And you nailed it. You nailed it this game.
(19:29):
You've been saying it all week. You just said Brian
Flores what he could do to this Texans defense and CJ. Stroud,
which is exactly what they did. He had two picks,
five sacks. They were only four or fourteen on third down.
They were playing it seemed like they were playing behind
the chains, and definitely they were trying to comfort behind
(19:50):
this entire game. Yeah, like you nailed Simon, You nailed
this handicap, just nailed it.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
That was good.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
You know what's even better, Simon, this was our Tommy
John Big Balls Bet of the Week. I don't know
if you know this or not, but ever since Tommy
John started sponsoring the show, we are undefeated with our
(20:21):
big balls better the week. Yeah, can you believe that
we're three? We're three? To know with our big balls
bet of the week. I went back and looked and
it's true, we are three. And oh I think I
feel so much more comfortable making these big balls bets.
We barely sweat these bets. Is that a coincidence?
Speaker 2 (20:45):
And we definitely didn't last week at Green Bays. I
guess you're right.
Speaker 1 (20:48):
I don't. I don't think it's a coincidence that ever
since Tommy John started sponsoring it, we're more comfortable and
less sweaty. All right, these are the games we left
off the table, Panther's plus six and a half. I mean,
we wanted to do it. I feel like we did
a disservice to our fans because we believed in Andy Dalton.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Then we believe you have the money line, that the
money line, the round robin.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Give away on the money line. We gave the money line.
We didn't put them in the contest. We believe this
team was better than their performance. It was a bryce
young issue.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
I just promised the people we wouldn't do it. I
just they were as much as we loved it. I
just knew they didn't want to hear it, so it's
just like, let's let them see it and then they'll
maybe believe it. But I knew a couple of psychopaths
who were ride with us on our money line bets,
were like, they'll bet their money line with us, and
hopefully they did, because you know, we gave out them
and the Giants, and that combo on the round robin
(21:43):
was a pretty pretty nice payout.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Pretty pretty pretty good payout for the Panthers the Giants.
I forgot who else was in the round robin? Not
the parlay, but the round robin. Does anyone remember Kings
were in there? Vikings were in there.
Speaker 3 (22:03):
We have Atlanta left, and I'm guessing we lost on Arizona.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
I think we might have at Arizona too. We also
felt like the Raiders had no business being six and
a half point favorites. The just weren't good enough. And
then Gardner Minshew got replaced at the end of the game.
Then you really yeah, yeah, Aidan O'Connell came in. Eagles,
(22:28):
you love them. I was skeptical. I feel like we
were kind of both right because at the end of
the day, they needed a miracle, Like if two Saints
players don't bump into each other with one of them
trying to guard Dallas Goddard running across the middle with
(22:49):
with seventy five seconds left. They don't get the ball
to him on third and sixteen, and he doesn't sprint
down the sideline and put them in a position to
score a touchdown. That was a that was a miracle.
Cover Like, you used up some of your good karma
for the season on this.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
So the team that lost their number one receiver, their
number two receiver, and their left tackle got lucky in
that game.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
Chat. Is that what you're saying right now.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
A little bit?
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (23:14):
I mean you're a Bears fan, so you don't even
know what good quarterback play looks like. So I'm not
gonna go, oh my god, Yeah, I mean, dude, I
was ready to go stick a bunch of four sales
signs in Sirianni's yard. I mean the coach email practice
in this game in so many different ways was just brutal.
But the reason I couldn't believe you didn't want to
(23:35):
do it was just like, dude, we were catching Dennis
Allen after two wins in a row, when not like
you couldn't get more hyped, and it was just like
this guy is gonna blow it in some way, and
they did. I mean, I can't believe they didn't win
that game at home in that spot. Yeah, the Eagles
defense came to play for sure, watching all that game,
like their run defense was really good. Jalen Carter probably
(23:57):
had his best game as an Eagle. But the Barkley signing,
I mean, wow, yeah, Like even though you know he
he let us down last last week, this game is
really why he's such a special talent. Like everything he does,
he gets better as the games go along. And I
(24:19):
believe the Saints had and given up like one hundred
yard rushing at home in like three years, and I
think he put up one forty six, so that that
was definitely the right side.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
But I agree with you where you.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
Know, I thought, I don't know if the Eagles didn't
get three or we had a turnover in the red zone,
but all these things have happened where it's just like,
you know what people are right about Geon Hurts. He's
just loose with the ball, he doesn't protect it, he
plays sloppy. But you know he had a big drive
there at the end of the game. That's just going
to shut people up for another week. So I don't
think Amerciriana out of the woods yet. That's a big
(24:53):
time win. Like that Saints team they had back to
back putting up forty points and they had Chad scared,
which is just mind because you hate Dennis Allen. When
I think of people who shot on Dennis Allen, it's you.
Uh So, yeah, we'll see going forward the Saints team.
But I think all of us can take a deep
breath and realize this is not the Rams from two thousand, right,
So I think we all can agree on that, you know.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
And I my feeling on this was I was more
worried about the Eagles without a j. Brown, And this
is another thing I want us to think about next week,
especially the spot that the Eagles are going in.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
I don't think Smith's gonna play either.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
I mean, he got hit by defensive linemen that yeah,
probably has two hundred pounds on him right into his head.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
Like, yeah, Kwayne Johnson has a concussion. Now Devonte Smith
has a concussion. This team is not in great shape.
In addition to the mistakes, right, Like, it's not just
the coaching malpractice. It's an undisciplined team and they are
shooting themselves in the foot. They are so talented when
(25:59):
they are all healthy, and Sirianni like, unless they are
blowing people out, you cannot count on this team necessarily
win unless you got two Saints pumping into each other
and they're playing against Dennis Allen and even then like
it was a miracle.
Speaker 3 (26:18):
Yeah, it's just there again though, they're they're what I'll
catch away from Barkley for being three and zero right
now and great, really big wins to start the season.
So it is tough where it's like, I agree with
everything you're saying, but it's like they have so much
talent that every week's can be hard to take against them. Unles,
we're getting a decent amount of points. So they're a
team that that that game right there kind of feels
(26:41):
like they determine their season. Right If they would have
lost that game, yes, things could have got ugly pretty
quick for sirian.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
And that Eagles team. So that was a huge one
for that Eagles team.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
Also, you might be able to credit me for the win.
I may have jinxed the Saints because when they were
about right before that third and sixteen miracle play I
put in my notebook New Orleans and Minnesota three and zero.
Who to thunk it? Oh god, I did it for you.
(27:13):
Yeah so fast, Yeah, Colts minus one and a half.
I liked it the whole week. You were suspect. I
actually think we were both right on this one too.
Like even though, oh my god, even though Caleb Williams
like consistently confused Colts defensive backs for Bears receivers. This
(27:34):
game was seven to three until the last plays of
the third quarter. It was fourteen to nine with five
minutes left in the game. The Bears even had a shot.
Like in the final couple of minutes. The Colts did
exactly what we said they were going to do, right, Yeah,
We're going to run the ball against a middling Bears
rush defense. They gained one hundred and fifty yards. They
(27:56):
had multiple explosive runs, including a long Jonathan Taylor ron
so like, I feel like this is similar to the
cult to the Saints and the Eagles, and that I
wanted to bet it end up being the right side.
(28:16):
You were skeptical. You were probably right as well. I'm
really glad we didn't put it in the contest.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
Yeah, I would say though, if you're a Bears fan,
the things to be excited about is whenever you do
get rid of this offensive coordinator. There is so many
things to build off with Caleb Williams, Like there are
little things he does. You're just like, man, this kid
is so incredibly talented. But whatever offense you guys are gonning,
I just hate it.
Speaker 2 (28:43):
I just I've watched too much bearriers I care to
even admit to this point through three games.
Speaker 3 (28:47):
But yeah, the Colts team, Anthony Richardson, I think we
talked a little bit about going to the year where
it's just like this kid just needs game reps.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
It's gonna be a lot of ugly, but there's gonna
be some good in there.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
And that pick he threw into the end zone was
just atrocious, Like it's just it's something you don't really
see in the pros how bad it was where it's
like there was three guys in front of the ball
and he threw it right to your guy.
Speaker 2 (29:14):
Man, that was just so bad.
Speaker 3 (29:15):
So the Colts team going forward, chat, I don't know,
I'm not gonna bet them as confident as I am.
I think it's talking about our situations and the different
matchups where yes, you know some teams won't match up
well for them, but we talked going into this game.
Their secondary is really suspect, and I think Kleb almost
threw for four hundred yards against them, Like I think
it was like three eighty when he put up, which
(29:36):
I mean you've watched him as well, Like that's that's
an insane amount for even him. So yeah, that one's right,
Like it wasn't even one of my bigger bets. I
remember earing the week we were talking about and it's
just like, yeah, you're right, the Colts were owing to
back against the wall. It's just like the Rams there, right,
you back these teams that are super desperate and they
usually find a way, and they certainly found a way,
(29:59):
and it's just the the Bears can stop shooting themselves
on the foot.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
The only bright side I wrote to my buddies in
our Bears text chain that is like so apoplectic and
upset and talking about the offensive coordinator. I told everybody
it happened to be on one of Kayleb Williams' picks
(30:23):
in the second half. It was his thirty second pass
of the game. And that's when I told everybody that
for our betting Investment club, I had bet a parlay
of DJ Moore over sixty two and a half receiving yards,
which you gave out on Convinced Me, which he got
on a hail Mary deflection at the end of the
(30:44):
first half where he ended up being down at the
one and the Bears didn't score, but it got him
to seventy seven yards in the first half and Kayleb
Williams over thirty one and a half passing attempts, thanked
to doctor Nick, your co host on bet What Happens
Live Today, So we did win that parlay. Maybe you
all the happier even though even though we didn't win
the game, we didn't win a nice little parlay. You
(31:07):
go ahead.
Speaker 3 (31:08):
I'll just say, if you haven't listened to me and
chat and check like commenced me, you are really missing
out right. Sean Kerner, one of the other pickers on
the show, he had a sixteen and oh streak heading
into that Sunday show, and you know today Chris Raybahn,
I believe he's six and oh on his picks in
the app so he went three and oh on the show.
I went three on the three and oh on the show,
(31:29):
and you know, we're through three weeks shore. The worst
week I've had on that My worst picks on that
show are three and one. So you know, week one
I went three and one, Week two and three in row,
and it's looking like week three, I'm gonna go three
and one again. Uh if Atlanta hasn't come through for
us tonight. So yeah, that commenced me show. It has
just been money this year. And you know, like you
already talked about, we bet dogs and unders. It's been
(31:51):
a great year for dogs and unders.
Speaker 1 (31:54):
Uh, tell me again, why didn't you why you didn't
make me pick Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
I mean you were being soft about it, Chad. Let's
be honest.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
You're just like I gave you all these stats from
Evan that were just insane. It was just like, it's
Lamar against the NFC's twenty and one.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Straight up.
Speaker 3 (32:14):
All we needed to do was straight up win and
it was money in the bank. But your hesitation was
I don't trust Baltimore's defense, which doesn't look too crazy.
Every time we talk about they just let them come
all the way.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
Back, right. Yeahy're up twenty eight to six. The game
ended twenty eight to five, so the reason for it
is valid.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
Like, they don't really have an identity on defense, But
my reason to you was they might have one of
the worst run defenses of football and one of the
worst run games of football offensively, Dallas.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
Like that's a big issue this season. We saw it today.
Speaker 3 (32:47):
I mean, the Ravens could get as anything they wanted
running the ball, especially with Derrick Henry. So yeah, that
was my Scooter Lepik never in doubt until that very
very end there. But yeah, it's stuff we missed on it.
But your hesitation was valid. I was just like, I
can't see this team being oh and three against the
(33:07):
spreading oh and three straight up to start the season.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
That Ravens team, they just they were unlucky in their
first two games.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
So great to see them bounce back, even though they
don't have a starting kicker on their team.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
Justin Tucker another miss today. I can't pack it. Yeah, No,
it's crazy how they just age like that kickers.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
It's insane. Yeah, what has happened to him? Do you
think we would have replaced Tennessee with the Ravens? Like,
was that what we were going to do.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
Yeah, because we were talking about replacing a favorite, because
I knew there was no chance you were going to
take Denver out. And I wasn't really pushing it either,
because it was just like, we're getting a good number
of the contest. It wasn't five and a half anymore.
It was up to six and a half, So it's like,
we'll keep that. Vikings was no doubt or two and
a half. Maybe the only hesitation I had today when
I woke up was our Jaguars pick just thinking about it.
(33:55):
But I don't think I ever would have tried to
make you switch it out, just because I've already bett
it so much this week.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
So yeah, like I said all the time, chat, it's hard.
We need to try to be both on the same side.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
And it's rare that I can convince you that Sunday
morn on a side you don't love. Your hesitation on
the Ravens, like I said, was valid that defense going forward.
That's gonna be the reason we're a little scared to
take them if the number is not right.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Right, but we talk Lamar.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
Under three points, so if he's less than three point favorite,
now he's twenty three and seven against the spread in
his career.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Damn good.
Speaker 1 (34:26):
It's really that's why.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
I I remember I took him scooch for that.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
You're like, oh my god, you're taking the chalk favorite,
and it's just like chalk sometimes wins, and now it
was one of those sometimes that wins.
Speaker 1 (34:38):
All right, let's talk about week four lines here. Bear's
are one point favorites at home.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
You liking that spot against the Rams. I don't hate it, No,
you should like it, that is I'm with you. I
would not bet it yet, So I do you think
we might be able to get a plus number?
Speaker 2 (34:55):
What do you think?
Speaker 1 (34:56):
I know, I agree, especially with the resp when they
come back. They came back today, But there is a
big difference between coming back against division arrival who you
are so familiar with at home, and then going on
the road. Like think about last week the Rams got
blown out by the Cardinals in the same way the
week before. They have played so well. This is geared
(35:20):
for a letdown, and the Bears are in a position
to overachieve, learning from mistakes, planning against a team that
is so beat up, like we don't know who's going
to be on the field.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
And it's actually a great matchup for your defense against
Rams team exactly.
Speaker 1 (35:39):
So I saw that and I immediately thought, oh, yeah,
I like them.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
I'm gonna throw a little bit on just in just
in case you ran the professionals dude coming on the Bears.
But I just I can see the public hammer in
this Rams team now. They just everyone hates this Bear's team.
I just think everyone's totally off them at this point.
So I think we might get a good.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
Number on that.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
The other game that jumped out at me, don't laugh
at me. Yeah, Green Bay is a very short home
favorite against Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Yeah, honestly, I bet it just because I bet it
before the games today, just in case Jordan and Love
did come back.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
Yeah, so I like that too for early bet.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Yeah, even though it is that is tough throwing Jordan
Love in against his Vikings defense, because that they're gonna
they're gonna be bringing the heat on his ass.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
There's no doubt they're gonna make him test of that leg.
I think you're right. I'm gonna grab it now, just
because this is a key number at two.
Speaker 1 (36:38):
Look at that, you think I'm right. I got two
games that I'm looking at and you're like, oh, yeah,
you know what.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
You know what I like though, just bet these ugly
home favorites. I'm gonna give you a chalk bet that
I made right away before you even came on the air.
Tell me Cowboys minus five and a half Thursday Night
Football in the Meadowlands, don't They beat the Giants by
thirty points every time they play.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
Interesting, this is the only team Dak beats up.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
So this number look ahead was minus seven. After the
loss and the Giants win, It's moved under a key
number now, So I hate it because it's so chalky
and it's a standalone Island game. But I'm just gonna
grab it now because I think it goes back above
the six jet. So this is just grabbing the number
before it moves. No way this will be our big balls.
(37:26):
Simon says, any of that most likely, but I'm gonna
grab it now. I just I love this Cowboys in
this bounce back spot. They've lost two games in a row,
both at home, both embarrassing.
Speaker 2 (37:37):
This is the type of spot.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
Where they go on the road and they just beat
the absolute shit of the Giants. That's they're not that
good of a team. They played Deshaun Watson today, which
is the reason they look so good. Right. I think
you said they had eight sacks or something like that.
So yeah, this is a nice spot for the Cowboys
to get right and just a typical letdown spot for
this Giants team.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
Any other games, I have one more game that I'm
I'm spying a little bit, just a little bit.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
Uh, the only other game that really jumped out, and
it's just in case our Jaguars beck comes through.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
It's the Ravens a minus two and a half. I
just gave you that. I just gave you a La
Mar stat.
Speaker 1 (38:23):
Yeah, it's interesting to me. I was leaning the other
way the Bills. No, I was looking at the Jags
as four and a half point dogs road against the Texans,
thinking that number is going to get smaller if our
Jags bet like that thought, that's what I liked.
Speaker 2 (38:45):
Yeah, I'll be I'll be honest, though.
Speaker 3 (38:47):
If the Jags cover and do well against the Bills,
you expect them to let down. Yeah, I'm gonna hammer
Houston at home in those kind of spots. So I
get where you're coming from. That actually actually actually interesting side,
but I can't touch it. I honestly, I'm glad you
didn't bring up I think you're gonna try to get
me on Denver here right away.
Speaker 2 (39:06):
It's seven and a half. No, No, that's how I
feel about it. Where it's just now, man, is that tempting?
Speaker 3 (39:13):
They know us though, they know us pretty well where
it's like, if this was six and a half, seven
and a half, seven, I wouldn't touch it.
Speaker 2 (39:18):
But at seven and a half, I'm just like, should
I take Denver here? But you're right, You're right.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
What did I say? What did I say? That was
the exact right spot? This week? We never have to
bet the Broncos again as long as we live. We
are done. We are done. We can go back to
betting the Panthers every week.
Speaker 3 (39:37):
So I'll tell people right now though another really sharp
side that I'm not going to bet right now because
I think I'll get better value on as the week
goes along.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
The Bucks are plus two right now against the Eagles.
Speaker 3 (39:47):
So this is Eagles on a back to back road
after a huge emotional win against the Saints, playing against
a Bucks team that just got embarrassed.
Speaker 2 (39:54):
I'm blown out.
Speaker 3 (39:55):
I mean, all the money's gonna come on the Eagles,
right So I'm gonna wait see if I can get
above a key number of plus two and a half
plus three. But that's that's actually a really nice spot
for the Eagles to have a letdown. So uh yeah,
people don't don't be mad, but the Bucks, I can
already tell that's gonna be a side Me and Chatter
are most likely going to end up on.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
It's just they have they have had the Eagles number
the last couple of years.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
And I know you can be like, well, in the playoffs,
that was like the Eagles were just a totally different
team and it was a Cason on hell. I totally
get that position. I honestly think it's the coaching match.
But Todd Bowles has just done well against Sirianni. He
kind of knows what the Eagles want to do. So
that's a number that I didn't want to give out
on the show yet, but it's sometime I want people
to be aware of that, Like, if this does get
(40:42):
up to three, no, you should grab it right away
because I'm definitely gonna grab it when it gets there.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
Well, look, we just don't know what this Eagles team
is going to have.
Speaker 2 (40:51):
That's what I mean. They're so banged up.
Speaker 1 (40:52):
Yeah, Like, we just don't know at this point. All right,
So the early lines that were sort of touching on
Bear's my one, pat, what's that? Definitely Bears, Definitely Bears.
Packer's minus two. You mentioned Cowboys minus five and a
half at the meadow Lands on Thursday Night football.
Speaker 2 (41:11):
That's my biggest early bet right now.
Speaker 1 (41:14):
We're hedging right now like Baltimore two and a half,
Jags plus four and a half, where I'm interested in Jags,
You're interested in Baltimore depending on the outcome of the
game on Monday night, and we're not betting it yet.
We're hoping the number goes higher. We're hoping the number
(41:34):
goes up to two and a half three the Bucks
as underdogs against the Eagles. All right. As a reminder,
the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two
hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,
sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars in
(41:56):
place a bet for five dollars to get two hundred
dollar bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on
spreads totals, player props, futures and more, whatever the moment,
It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five. Must be
twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
(42:19):
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
restrictions apply. Catch our next episode live on Tuesday one
thirty pm Eastern on Action Networks YouTube channel and in
the Action Network app, will cover the whole NFL Week
(42:41):
four board and announce our Week three contest winner. You
can still win weekly prizes in the contest favorites at
actionnetwork dot com. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever
you get your pase rate, review subscribed, leave us five stars,
say whatever you want feedback. It's a gift till Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (43:01):
Love you.
Speaker 1 (43:07):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
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Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
We are sweating the end of some games live from
our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chadmllman, Chief Content
Officer of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night
(00:30):
episode in which we review the Phase five's picks we
put into the contest. This morning, we dissect why we
left some games out, preview the early lines we already
like for week four. I'm joined as always by my
co host, my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, the man
(00:51):
who gave out the rams with doctor Nick Giffen on
our afternoon BET What Happens Live, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
So I'm in What a day, jad, dude.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
A miraculous day, A beautiful day. We're not out of
the woods in any respect for our five picks, but
at least like there was not a ton of anxiety
with our picks. We're going to get to that. Catch
every episode of The Favorites Live on YouTube. For those
enjoying it on YouTube right now, don't forget to give
us a life and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
(01:28):
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers can get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when
you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars and place a bet for five dollars
to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
(01:48):
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
three six five. Must be twenty one or older in
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call one
(02:09):
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
Iowa terms, conditions restrictions apply. All right, Here's a fun
little stat that Evan Abrams has been touting our week
that he just put into the script for us. The
Rams have won outright underdogs of six plus points, so
six points or more moved to eleven and one against
(02:32):
the spread, seven and five straight up this season and
during Monday Night Football. The Panthers covered as big dogs today,
the Giants covered as big dogs today, the Broncos covered
as big dogs today. The Giants, the Panthers, the Broncos,
(02:54):
all one outright, and now the Rams insane. He blended
the varied talents of his teammates like a skilled conductor.
He directed them in a classic two minute drill insane day.
What's amazing about this contest, Simon, is that we were
(03:15):
on all these games, and yet somehow, instead of being
four and zero at the end of the day so far,
just playing those games, we're two and one. We have
the Falcons plus three and a half tonight against the Chiefs,
the Jags plus five and a half tomorrow against the Bills.
If you believe listeners, viewers, you could beat our picks
(03:38):
this season. Be our guest. Let us pay you forty
thousand dollars. Sign up for the contest favorites dot Actionnetwork
dot Come. All right, let's run through the games, starting
with the loser. And I got to emphasize here, just
one loser so far through Sunday. I wish I could
(03:58):
say we were undefeated, like I said up there at
the top. Unfortunately, we never even considered taking our losing
team out. In all of these conversations, the good news
was time and this was a no sweat day. As
far as the games we put into the contest from
the outset, the teams we picked either controlled the game
(04:19):
or they were never in it, starting with Tennessee minus
two and a half against Green Bay. Listen, Matt Lafleur
is just a genius. Since nineteen ninety the list of
coaches who are above five hundred straight up as a
(04:45):
dog with at least seventeen games, Matt Lafleur twenty and
fifteen and Mike Tomlin fifty and forty nine. So we're
going to break it down. I'm curious to know sort
of your perspective on all of it, and I'll take
a break from babbling for a second.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
Yeah, I mean, we did have a conversation. We talked
about a couple other favorites. And that's what's fun but
tough about this show, right, it's a partnership. We're both
trying to find games we both like together. And you
know today you definitely planned your flag in Denver where
I like Denver, but you loved it and you were
spot on on that one. I love the Ravens, and
(05:24):
I never could get you there. So we end up
going with Tennessee, which is another game I love. So yeah,
Will Levis throwing a pick six and just being awful.
That's that's life bet in Tennessee. That's they're they're a
bad team right now. So, like you said, that was brutal,
especially in a day where that's our only miss. Everything
else really came through. That's that's a tough one. But
(05:46):
at the end of the day, it's that's gambling.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
You know. I have no regrets with it.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
But yeah, I just you know, going back looking at
our picks, it's like, what could I have said to
make a different But I just don't think I would
have said anything. So no matter what, we were probably
going to be either three and one at this point
or two in one.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Yeah, that to me, I felt like the only game
we might have taken out was the Broncos because I
got this sense the whole time you were not sort
of in love with that pick. I think you really
wanted a seven.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
No I met it, but it was more yeah, like exactly,
I was just like I wish the number was.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Up there, wanted to know you were always going to
bet the game, and we'll get to that game to sack.
But but you just wanted a better number. Yeah, I
ended up. I ended up buying the seven, and you know,
regrettably paid a little extra on the juice. But our
theory with green Bay and this is going to be
I made a note already for Tuesday in our script,
(06:46):
we got to talk about green Bay, what green Bay
is doing on defense, and what a good coach Matt
Lafleur is like. Our theory was that green Bay would
not run the ball as well as did against the
Colts they did. Our theory was that Malik Willis would
not play well as well as he did against the Colts.
(07:08):
He did. Our theory was that this Titans team was
really just a couple of mistakes away from being two
and zero. They're not. Our reality is that we knew
we were stepping into it with will Levis and the
Packers ended up with two hundred nearly two hundred yards rushing.
They averaged five point five yards per carry. Malik Willis
(07:32):
threw for more than two hundred yards ran for seventy
three yards. Levis has a nice looking stat line like
twenty eight thirty four two sixty two touches, also fumbled
and had a pick six, was sacked eight times.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
You did that.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
I letna say, like he had nice stats, but he
nailed it. It's like I thought you'd have a good day.
I thought it was a good matchup for their team,
but the defensive playing whatever it was, was just awful.
And I knew we were in trouble early in the
game where they weren't spying Malik, And it's just like, yeah,
why would you not do that? Of all things to
do with this kid. Don't let him get comfortable running
(08:08):
the ball, because that's gonna give him. Let him build confidence.
And like you just said, lafleur Man, what can you say?
The guy has been incredible, especially when he coaches his
team as an underdog. So yeah, like you said, or
one miss, it's what's so brutal? Or one miss we
we end up putting the contest. And I just there's
(08:28):
no way I could have gone back and have known,
just because same thing we're gonna talk about this upcoming week.
They're oero for three now oh for three against the spread.
This Titans team. Eventually the value will come the other way.
But maybe me and you just stay away until they
make a change of the QB position.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
So it's funny you mentioned that. I would say there
was one point where Callahan, Brian Calhan, the coach who
has been sort of charmingly candid about his feelings for
Will Levis during the week after cussing him out last
week and then saying how much he basically you know,
(09:09):
in not so many words, kind of thought he was
an idiot this week and became a great conversation starter
for everyone in the media. I actually wondered when what
we see the Titans backup quarterback? I was surprised we didn't,
and then I remember I had to look it up.
What was with Mason Rudolph, who, by the way, was
brilliant last year with the Steelers, So why not put
(09:34):
him in? Like give your team a shot when they're
playing so badly. I do wonder if there will be
some kind of conversation in Tennessee now to get Mason
Rudolph in similar to Carolina, right, like get a guy
if you think your team might be close, get a
guy in there who can do something with it. But
(09:56):
Matt Lafleur, God, he is good.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Just this, I know, I love that you just spent
about ten minutes in this game. Though.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
Let's keep it moving, all right, We're gonna talk a
lot more about mattla floor. There's one thing one more.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Than disuption of Mala flora right now.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
It's like, all right, dude, you just beat up Anthony
Richardson and Will Levis and Chad's going ape shit.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
The Packers are also, they are flying to the ball
defensively under Jeff Haffley. They have as many picks in
three games as they did all of last season. That's
seven picks. Pretty good, Yeah, pretty good. All right, let's
talk about some winners. There we go, Denver plus six
and a half of Tampa. No notes, as they say
(10:42):
in Hollywood, no notes.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Denver.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
Denver was nearly flawless, Like, oh yeah, all of the
luck trends that we like to talk about. This was
a thirty point luck gap, meaning the Bucks have been
one of the luckiest, the Broncos have been one of
the least lucky. We can get into all of it.
Tell me what you saw.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
Yeah, first reaction would be we thought what Detroy would do?
What the Denver did right, attack the secondary like there
were holes and openings in the secondary that you could attack,
and they were able to do it.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
But unlike the Lions who kept stowing in the red zone,
they shockingly didn't.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
Right, bon Nicks looked comfortable in the red zone, had
a couple of nice plays, you know, pulling the ball
down and running it, which is what we want to
see out of him, right, I'd rather see him take
a sack in the red zone then him keep throwing
those interceptions. So the most surprising part was just how
bad Baker played. He never looked comfortable. Denver's defense did
are a great job against them, And yeah, Chack giving
(11:46):
you your flowers, Like that's the kind of number where
it's the dream, right when you're when you get a
double digits, when you have a six and a half
point dog, you're just like, I have no worries where
you know we're gonna talk about the vikings. It's never
really that far away because you know we're getting only
a point in a half or two and a half.
But when you have that six and a half, seven
and a half kind of numbers late in these games,
(12:06):
it's just like, you know, there was no way that
we weren't going to cover that number one Denver. So
looking at the matchup wise going forward for them, I
think they learned a lot about, you know, having bone
Nicks kind of just get outside.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
The pocket more.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
I think that was really pretty, you know, pretty telling
in that game that Chempayn wouldn't to do that with him. So, yeah,
once again Denver's defense, that to me is probably the
most shocking part. How well they played against that Bucks offense.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Yeah, I thought they played really well. I thought there'd
be more points scored in the game because Denver's defense
has been good, not great, and because the reason we
liked Denver so much was Vita Vea's out. Another defensive
lineman is out, their secondary is incredibly banged up, and
(12:51):
everything the Lions did wrong Sean Payton did right this
week with bone Nicks. Also, all of the luck trends,
sort of the regressions on turnovers, fourth down conversions, performance
in the red zone, scoring touchdowns, all the things that
(13:12):
they have suffered from or that have happened to them
went their way this week. Like, here's my list of
things the Broncos did that indicated sort of a luck turnaround.
Bon Nick's first three plays three for three fifty nine
(13:32):
yards two plays pass plays of twenty plus yards scored
a rushing TV at the end of the drive, even
after he had had to delay a game in the
red zone after picking off Baker Mayfield, the Broncos and
Bonnicks fumbled. That fumble didn't count because the Bucks were
(13:53):
off sides. They went forward on fourth and goal inches away,
pitched it wide. The guy barely snuck into the end zone.
Like they even got a fumble by Tampa in the
red zone. This was just so enjoyable, Like it was
so stress free. I couldn't have been happier with this game.
(14:16):
I wished every game. I wish this was the only
game that I was watching the whole day.
Speaker 3 (14:21):
Yeah, it's also we got lucky where you know, people
overreacted to a lot of these teams after two games, right,
and I think Bucks is one of those teams. The
Saints again, we'd't even talk about where. You know, I
really like the Eagles and you never got there.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
But I got why. The Saints were pretty damn.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
Scary through two games, and I understood your hesitation with it,
and I thought to myself, Man, they can't be this good.
They're just they had to come back to Earth. I
think just like the Saints the Bucks. We saw Derek
Carr come back to Earth and we saw Baker come
back to Earth. Right, even if Baker had a good
game as a whole, that team, the Bucks have so
many injuries to that defense, it was just like, man,
(14:58):
if they can get the ball moving on Denver here,
I just never thought we would have a problem with
back in that side. And you know, little did we
know that just the Bucks, the whole team wasn't going
to show up today, right, So, like you said, I
think it was what it was, seventeen nothing at one
point or fourteen w whatever it was. I just said
to myself, Okay, Chad nailed this one. That this number
is never going to be a sweat.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Here's the good news. We never have to bet the
Broncos or Boonix again. We've been waiting for the exact
right number and the exact right spot to take advantage
of their number in an overinflation undervalued spot. This was it.
And by the way, you mentioned the Ravens, you mentioned
the Eagles. I do want to like get into those games.
(15:40):
So we are going to get through the last game
that we did bet and that we did win because
I think the games that we left out are just
as fascinating as the games that we put in. So
I do want to get to a bunch of those games. Yeah,
the last game that we bet today in a game reminder,
we got the Falcons tonight plus three and a half
the Jacks plus five and a half tomorrow. In our
(16:02):
favorites contest, we had Houston at Minnesota plus two and
a half. You've been on this since Sunday, like it
was three and a half on Sunday last night when
we did the show. You bet it, then kept betting it.
You were on it today. Unconvinced me. Eleven am Eastern
watching in YouTube in the Action Network app, this was
your best bet of the day on sides, even when
(16:25):
it get down to one and a half. Here's something
my son said to me while we were watching the game.
I don't think there were any odds on anyone saying
this in the world when this season started. Is Sam
Darnold the MVP of the league right now?
Speaker 2 (16:48):
No, but he is playing really good. I'll give him that.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
I mean, you can't hate on it where it's like
he has complete confidence in the offense, and there was
a couple throws in that game where big time throws
right like to the sideline only his guy could catch it.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
Pretty impressive throws.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
But I told you my main reason for liking that spot,
it was definitely Brian Flores in that defense, and you
saw immediately that you know, CJ was not comfortable like that.
Just the different looks he can set up with that
defense and the vikings is you know, to me, that's
been the game changer this season as much as Sam
Donald as well. Like I'm not gonna again, I'm not
trying knock Sam Donald. He's played so well here, but
(17:26):
that that defense really showed up, and you know, you
talked about it like it's it's always a little scary
when we give out these numbers on Sunday and then
I'm betting it all week and then we get to
this point and you're right, it was all the way
down to one one and a half and it's just like, okay,
what at what point does this become the public chalky side?
And luckily a ton of money came in late that
(17:48):
gave me a little confidence on that Houston team where
it's like, okay, at least there are people bet on
the other side, and that was just another no brainer, right.
I think it was fourteen to nothing right from the
get go, and with two turnovers as well, which is
like pretty shocking for that Houston side. And once Sam
kind of got into a groove, that offense was just clicking.
(18:08):
So even when he got banged up he came back in,
he still looked pretty good. That's one thing I'm definitely
gonna be checking for. Is it sounds crazy, but definitely
interested in his injury report and what he's like going forward.
But you know, he played the end of the game,
and you know, we said the same thing about Herbert
last week, and then it popped up this week. They
didn't look right, so I wanted to bet. We'll talk
(18:32):
again the lines coming up. But they're the team I
kind of liked this upcoming week, and now with the
unknown of Sam Donald what his injury might be, they're
definitely a team I'm gonna wait on, not bet right away.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Sam Donald's odds for MVP are fifty to one right now.
His stats through three games six hundred and fifty seven
passing yard, sixty eight percent completion rate, eight touchdowns, only
two picks, A ninety seven yard touchdown pass win against
the Giants, Niners, and Texans.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
That's good.
Speaker 1 (19:06):
Why wouldn't she take a flyer on Sam's Kevin O'Connell
is locked in and he deserves as much credit as
Matt lafleur. They might be the two best coaches in
the NFL right now, Matt Lafloor Jarman O'Connell. Two best
coaches in the NFL are in the same division as
the Bears. And you nailed it. You nailed it this game.
(19:29):
You've been saying it all week. You just said Brian
Flores what he could do to this Texans defense and CJ. Stroud,
which is exactly what they did. He had two picks,
five sacks. They were only four or fourteen on third down.
They were playing it seemed like they were playing behind
the chains, and definitely they were trying to comfort behind
(19:50):
this entire game. Yeah, like you nailed Simon, You nailed
this handicap, just nailed it.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
That was good.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
You know what's even better, Simon, this was our Tommy
John Big Balls Bet of the Week. I don't know
if you know this or not, but ever since Tommy
John started sponsoring the show, we are undefeated with our
(20:21):
big balls better the week. Yeah, can you believe that
we're three? We're three? To know with our big balls
bet of the week. I went back and looked and
it's true, we are three. And oh I think I
feel so much more comfortable making these big balls bets.
We barely sweat these bets. Is that a coincidence?
Speaker 2 (20:45):
And we definitely didn't last week at Green Bays. I
guess you're right.
Speaker 1 (20:48):
I don't. I don't think it's a coincidence that ever
since Tommy John started sponsoring it, we're more comfortable and
less sweaty. All right, these are the games we left
off the table, Panther's plus six and a half. I mean,
we wanted to do it. I feel like we did
a disservice to our fans because we believed in Andy Dalton.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Then we believe you have the money line, that the
money line, the round robin.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Give away on the money line. We gave the money line.
We didn't put them in the contest. We believe this
team was better than their performance. It was a bryce
young issue.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
I just promised the people we wouldn't do it. I
just they were as much as we loved it. I
just knew they didn't want to hear it, so it's
just like, let's let them see it and then they'll
maybe believe it. But I knew a couple of psychopaths
who were ride with us on our money line bets,
were like, they'll bet their money line with us, and
hopefully they did, because you know, we gave out them
and the Giants, and that combo on the round robin
(21:43):
was a pretty pretty nice payout.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Pretty pretty pretty good payout for the Panthers the Giants.
I forgot who else was in the round robin? Not
the parlay, but the round robin. Does anyone remember Kings
were in there? Vikings were in there.
Speaker 3 (22:03):
We have Atlanta left, and I'm guessing we lost on Arizona.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
I think we might have at Arizona too. We also
felt like the Raiders had no business being six and
a half point favorites. The just weren't good enough. And
then Gardner Minshew got replaced at the end of the game.
Then you really yeah, yeah, Aidan O'Connell came in. Eagles,
(22:28):
you love them. I was skeptical. I feel like we
were kind of both right because at the end of
the day, they needed a miracle, Like if two Saints
players don't bump into each other with one of them
trying to guard Dallas Goddard running across the middle with
(22:49):
with seventy five seconds left. They don't get the ball
to him on third and sixteen, and he doesn't sprint
down the sideline and put them in a position to
score a touchdown. That was a that was a miracle.
Cover Like, you used up some of your good karma
for the season on this.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
So the team that lost their number one receiver, their
number two receiver, and their left tackle got lucky in
that game.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
Chat. Is that what you're saying right now.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
A little bit?
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (23:14):
I mean you're a Bears fan, so you don't even
know what good quarterback play looks like. So I'm not
gonna go, oh my god, Yeah, I mean, dude, I
was ready to go stick a bunch of four sales
signs in Sirianni's yard. I mean the coach email practice
in this game in so many different ways was just brutal.
But the reason I couldn't believe you didn't want to
(23:35):
do it was just like, dude, we were catching Dennis
Allen after two wins in a row, when not like
you couldn't get more hyped, and it was just like
this guy is gonna blow it in some way, and
they did. I mean, I can't believe they didn't win
that game at home in that spot. Yeah, the Eagles
defense came to play for sure, watching all that game,
like their run defense was really good. Jalen Carter probably
(23:57):
had his best game as an Eagle. But the Barkley signing,
I mean, wow, yeah, Like even though you know he
he let us down last last week, this game is
really why he's such a special talent. Like everything he does,
he gets better as the games go along. And I
(24:19):
believe the Saints had and given up like one hundred
yard rushing at home in like three years, and I
think he put up one forty six, so that that
was definitely the right side.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
But I agree with you where you.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
Know, I thought, I don't know if the Eagles didn't
get three or we had a turnover in the red zone,
but all these things have happened where it's just like,
you know what people are right about Geon Hurts. He's
just loose with the ball, he doesn't protect it, he
plays sloppy. But you know he had a big drive
there at the end of the game. That's just going
to shut people up for another week. So I don't
think Amerciriana out of the woods yet. That's a big
(24:53):
time win. Like that Saints team they had back to
back putting up forty points and they had Chad scared,
which is just mind because you hate Dennis Allen. When
I think of people who shot on Dennis Allen, it's you.
Uh So, yeah, we'll see going forward the Saints team.
But I think all of us can take a deep
breath and realize this is not the Rams from two thousand, right,
So I think we all can agree on that, you know.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
And I my feeling on this was I was more
worried about the Eagles without a j. Brown, And this
is another thing I want us to think about next week,
especially the spot that the Eagles are going in.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
I don't think Smith's gonna play either.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
I mean, he got hit by defensive linemen that yeah,
probably has two hundred pounds on him right into his head.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
Like, yeah, Kwayne Johnson has a concussion. Now Devonte Smith
has a concussion. This team is not in great shape.
In addition to the mistakes, right, Like, it's not just
the coaching malpractice. It's an undisciplined team and they are
shooting themselves in the foot. They are so talented when
(25:59):
they are all healthy, and Sirianni like, unless they are
blowing people out, you cannot count on this team necessarily
win unless you got two Saints pumping into each other
and they're playing against Dennis Allen and even then like
it was a miracle.
Speaker 3 (26:18):
Yeah, it's just there again though, they're they're what I'll
catch away from Barkley for being three and zero right
now and great, really big wins to start the season.
So it is tough where it's like, I agree with
everything you're saying, but it's like they have so much
talent that every week's can be hard to take against them. Unles,
we're getting a decent amount of points. So they're a
team that that that game right there kind of feels
(26:41):
like they determine their season. Right If they would have
lost that game, yes, things could have got ugly pretty
quick for sirian.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
And that Eagles team. So that was a huge one
for that Eagles team.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
Also, you might be able to credit me for the win.
I may have jinxed the Saints because when they were
about right before that third and sixteen miracle play I
put in my notebook New Orleans and Minnesota three and zero.
Who to thunk it? Oh god, I did it for you.
(27:13):
Yeah so fast, Yeah, Colts minus one and a half.
I liked it the whole week. You were suspect. I
actually think we were both right on this one too.
Like even though, oh my god, even though Caleb Williams
like consistently confused Colts defensive backs for Bears receivers. This
(27:34):
game was seven to three until the last plays of
the third quarter. It was fourteen to nine with five
minutes left in the game. The Bears even had a shot.
Like in the final couple of minutes. The Colts did
exactly what we said they were going to do, right, Yeah,
We're going to run the ball against a middling Bears
rush defense. They gained one hundred and fifty yards. They
(27:56):
had multiple explosive runs, including a long Jonathan Taylor ron
so like, I feel like this is similar to the
cult to the Saints and the Eagles, and that I
wanted to bet it end up being the right side.
(28:16):
You were skeptical. You were probably right as well. I'm
really glad we didn't put it in the contest.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
Yeah, I would say though, if you're a Bears fan,
the things to be excited about is whenever you do
get rid of this offensive coordinator. There is so many
things to build off with Caleb Williams, Like there are
little things he does. You're just like, man, this kid
is so incredibly talented. But whatever offense you guys are gonning,
I just hate it.
Speaker 2 (28:43):
I just I've watched too much bearriers I care to
even admit to this point through three games.
Speaker 3 (28:47):
But yeah, the Colts team, Anthony Richardson, I think we
talked a little bit about going to the year where
it's just like this kid just needs game reps.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
It's gonna be a lot of ugly, but there's gonna
be some good in there.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
And that pick he threw into the end zone was
just atrocious, Like it's just it's something you don't really
see in the pros how bad it was where it's
like there was three guys in front of the ball
and he threw it right to your guy.
Speaker 2 (29:14):
Man, that was just so bad.
Speaker 3 (29:15):
So the Colts team going forward, chat, I don't know,
I'm not gonna bet them as confident as I am.
I think it's talking about our situations and the different
matchups where yes, you know some teams won't match up
well for them, but we talked going into this game.
Their secondary is really suspect, and I think Kleb almost
threw for four hundred yards against them, Like I think
it was like three eighty when he put up, which
(29:36):
I mean you've watched him as well, Like that's that's
an insane amount for even him. So yeah, that one's right,
Like it wasn't even one of my bigger bets. I
remember earing the week we were talking about and it's
just like, yeah, you're right, the Colts were owing to
back against the wall. It's just like the Rams there, right,
you back these teams that are super desperate and they
usually find a way, and they certainly found a way,
(29:59):
and it's just the the Bears can stop shooting themselves
on the foot.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
The only bright side I wrote to my buddies in
our Bears text chain that is like so apoplectic and
upset and talking about the offensive coordinator. I told everybody
it happened to be on one of Kayleb Williams' picks
(30:23):
in the second half. It was his thirty second pass
of the game. And that's when I told everybody that
for our betting Investment club, I had bet a parlay
of DJ Moore over sixty two and a half receiving yards,
which you gave out on Convinced Me, which he got
on a hail Mary deflection at the end of the
(30:44):
first half where he ended up being down at the
one and the Bears didn't score, but it got him
to seventy seven yards in the first half and Kayleb
Williams over thirty one and a half passing attempts, thanked
to doctor Nick, your co host on bet What Happens
Live Today, So we did win that parlay. Maybe you
all the happier even though even though we didn't win
the game, we didn't win a nice little parlay. You
(31:07):
go ahead.
Speaker 3 (31:08):
I'll just say, if you haven't listened to me and
chat and check like commenced me, you are really missing
out right. Sean Kerner, one of the other pickers on
the show, he had a sixteen and oh streak heading
into that Sunday show, and you know today Chris Raybahn,
I believe he's six and oh on his picks in
the app so he went three and oh on the show.
I went three on the three and oh on the show,
(31:29):
and you know, we're through three weeks shore. The worst
week I've had on that My worst picks on that
show are three and one. So you know, week one
I went three and one, Week two and three in row,
and it's looking like week three, I'm gonna go three
and one again. Uh if Atlanta hasn't come through for
us tonight. So yeah, that commenced me show. It has
just been money this year. And you know, like you
already talked about, we bet dogs and unders. It's been
(31:51):
a great year for dogs and unders.
Speaker 1 (31:54):
Uh, tell me again, why didn't you why you didn't
make me pick Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
I mean you were being soft about it, Chad. Let's
be honest.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
You're just like I gave you all these stats from
Evan that were just insane. It was just like, it's
Lamar against the NFC's twenty and one.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Straight up.
Speaker 3 (32:14):
All we needed to do was straight up win and
it was money in the bank. But your hesitation was
I don't trust Baltimore's defense, which doesn't look too crazy.
Every time we talk about they just let them come
all the way.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
Back, right. Yeahy're up twenty eight to six. The game
ended twenty eight to five, so the reason for it
is valid.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
Like, they don't really have an identity on defense, But
my reason to you was they might have one of
the worst run defenses of football and one of the
worst run games of football offensively, Dallas.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
Like that's a big issue this season. We saw it today.
Speaker 3 (32:47):
I mean, the Ravens could get as anything they wanted
running the ball, especially with Derrick Henry. So yeah, that
was my Scooter Lepik never in doubt until that very
very end there. But yeah, it's stuff we missed on it.
But your hesitation was valid. I was just like, I
can't see this team being oh and three against the
(33:07):
spreading oh and three straight up to start the season.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
That Ravens team, they just they were unlucky in their
first two games.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
So great to see them bounce back, even though they
don't have a starting kicker on their team.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
Justin Tucker another miss today. I can't pack it. Yeah, No,
it's crazy how they just age like that kickers.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
It's insane. Yeah, what has happened to him? Do you
think we would have replaced Tennessee with the Ravens? Like,
was that what we were going to do.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
Yeah, because we were talking about replacing a favorite, because
I knew there was no chance you were going to
take Denver out. And I wasn't really pushing it either,
because it was just like, we're getting a good number
of the contest. It wasn't five and a half anymore.
It was up to six and a half, So it's like,
we'll keep that. Vikings was no doubt or two and
a half. Maybe the only hesitation I had today when
I woke up was our Jaguars pick just thinking about it.
(33:55):
But I don't think I ever would have tried to
make you switch it out, just because I've already bett
it so much this week.
Speaker 2 (33:59):
So yeah, like I said all the time, chat, it's hard.
We need to try to be both on the same side.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
And it's rare that I can convince you that Sunday
morn on a side you don't love. Your hesitation on
the Ravens, like I said, was valid that defense going forward.
That's gonna be the reason we're a little scared to
take them if the number is not right.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Right, but we talk Lamar.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
Under three points, so if he's less than three point favorite,
now he's twenty three and seven against the spread in
his career.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Damn good.
Speaker 1 (34:26):
It's really that's why.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
I I remember I took him scooch for that.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
You're like, oh my god, you're taking the chalk favorite,
and it's just like chalk sometimes wins, and now it
was one of those sometimes that wins.
Speaker 1 (34:38):
All right, let's talk about week four lines here. Bear's
are one point favorites at home.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
You liking that spot against the Rams. I don't hate it, No,
you should like it, that is I'm with you. I
would not bet it yet, So I do you think
we might be able to get a plus number?
Speaker 2 (34:55):
What do you think?
Speaker 1 (34:56):
I know, I agree, especially with the resp when they
come back. They came back today, But there is a
big difference between coming back against division arrival who you
are so familiar with at home, and then going on
the road. Like think about last week the Rams got
blown out by the Cardinals in the same way the
week before. They have played so well. This is geared
(35:20):
for a letdown, and the Bears are in a position
to overachieve, learning from mistakes, planning against a team that
is so beat up, like we don't know who's going
to be on the field.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
And it's actually a great matchup for your defense against
Rams team exactly.
Speaker 1 (35:39):
So I saw that and I immediately thought, oh, yeah,
I like them.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
I'm gonna throw a little bit on just in just
in case you ran the professionals dude coming on the Bears.
But I just I can see the public hammer in
this Rams team now. They just everyone hates this Bear's team.
I just think everyone's totally off them at this point.
So I think we might get a good.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
Number on that.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
The other game that jumped out at me, don't laugh
at me. Yeah, Green Bay is a very short home
favorite against Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Yeah, honestly, I bet it just because I bet it
before the games today, just in case Jordan and Love
did come back.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
Yeah, so I like that too for early bet.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Yeah, even though it is that is tough throwing Jordan
Love in against his Vikings defense, because that they're gonna
they're gonna be bringing the heat on his ass.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
There's no doubt they're gonna make him test of that leg.
I think you're right. I'm gonna grab it now, just
because this is a key number at two.
Speaker 1 (36:38):
Look at that, you think I'm right. I got two
games that I'm looking at and you're like, oh, yeah,
you know what.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
You know what I like though, just bet these ugly
home favorites. I'm gonna give you a chalk bet that
I made right away before you even came on the air.
Tell me Cowboys minus five and a half Thursday Night
Football in the Meadowlands, don't They beat the Giants by
thirty points every time they play.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
Interesting, this is the only team Dak beats up.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
So this number look ahead was minus seven. After the
loss and the Giants win, It's moved under a key
number now, So I hate it because it's so chalky
and it's a standalone Island game. But I'm just gonna
grab it now because I think it goes back above
the six jet. So this is just grabbing the number
before it moves. No way this will be our big balls.
(37:26):
Simon says, any of that most likely, but I'm gonna
grab it now. I just I love this Cowboys in
this bounce back spot. They've lost two games in a row,
both at home, both embarrassing.
Speaker 2 (37:37):
This is the type of spot.
Speaker 3 (37:38):
Where they go on the road and they just beat
the absolute shit of the Giants. That's they're not that
good of a team. They played Deshaun Watson today, which
is the reason they look so good. Right. I think
you said they had eight sacks or something like that.
So yeah, this is a nice spot for the Cowboys
to get right and just a typical letdown spot for
this Giants team.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
Any other games, I have one more game that I'm
I'm spying a little bit, just a little bit.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
Uh, the only other game that really jumped out, and
it's just in case our Jaguars beck comes through.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
It's the Ravens a minus two and a half. I
just gave you that. I just gave you a La
Mar stat.
Speaker 1 (38:23):
Yeah, it's interesting to me. I was leaning the other
way the Bills. No, I was looking at the Jags
as four and a half point dogs road against the Texans,
thinking that number is going to get smaller if our
Jags bet like that thought, that's what I liked.
Speaker 2 (38:45):
Yeah, I'll be I'll be honest, though.
Speaker 3 (38:47):
If the Jags cover and do well against the Bills,
you expect them to let down. Yeah, I'm gonna hammer
Houston at home in those kind of spots. So I
get where you're coming from. That actually actually actually interesting side,
but I can't touch it. I honestly, I'm glad you
didn't bring up I think you're gonna try to get
me on Denver here right away.
Speaker 2 (39:06):
It's seven and a half. No, No, that's how I
feel about it. Where it's just now, man, is that tempting?
Speaker 3 (39:13):
They know us though, they know us pretty well where
it's like, if this was six and a half, seven
and a half, seven, I wouldn't touch it.
Speaker 2 (39:18):
But at seven and a half, I'm just like, should
I take Denver here? But you're right, You're right.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
What did I say? What did I say? That was
the exact right spot? This week? We never have to
bet the Broncos again as long as we live. We
are done. We are done. We can go back to
betting the Panthers every week.
Speaker 3 (39:37):
So I'll tell people right now though another really sharp
side that I'm not going to bet right now because
I think I'll get better value on as the week
goes along.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
The Bucks are plus two right now against the Eagles.
Speaker 3 (39:47):
So this is Eagles on a back to back road
after a huge emotional win against the Saints, playing against
a Bucks team that just got embarrassed.
Speaker 2 (39:54):
I'm blown out.
Speaker 3 (39:55):
I mean, all the money's gonna come on the Eagles,
right So I'm gonna wait see if I can get
above a key number of plus two and a half
plus three. But that's that's actually a really nice spot
for the Eagles to have a letdown. So uh yeah,
people don't don't be mad, but the Bucks, I can
already tell that's gonna be a side Me and Chatter
are most likely going to end up on.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
It's just they have they have had the Eagles number
the last couple of years.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
And I know you can be like, well, in the playoffs,
that was like the Eagles were just a totally different
team and it was a Cason on hell. I totally
get that position. I honestly think it's the coaching match.
But Todd Bowles has just done well against Sirianni. He
kind of knows what the Eagles want to do. So
that's a number that I didn't want to give out
on the show yet, but it's sometime I want people
to be aware of that, Like, if this does get
(40:42):
up to three, no, you should grab it right away
because I'm definitely gonna grab it when it gets there.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
Well, look, we just don't know what this Eagles team
is going to have.
Speaker 2 (40:51):
That's what I mean. They're so banged up.
Speaker 1 (40:52):
Yeah, Like, we just don't know at this point. All right,
So the early lines that were sort of touching on
Bear's my one, pat, what's that? Definitely Bears, Definitely Bears.
Packer's minus two. You mentioned Cowboys minus five and a
half at the meadow Lands on Thursday Night football.
Speaker 2 (41:11):
That's my biggest early bet right now.
Speaker 1 (41:14):
We're hedging right now like Baltimore two and a half,
Jags plus four and a half, where I'm interested in Jags,
You're interested in Baltimore depending on the outcome of the
game on Monday night, and we're not betting it yet.
We're hoping the number goes higher. We're hoping the number
(41:34):
goes up to two and a half three the Bucks
as underdogs against the Eagles. All right. As a reminder,
the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
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(42:41):
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Speaker 2 (43:01):
Love you.
Speaker 1 (43:07):
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