September 26, 2024 • 57 mins
Are the hungry Bears ready to roar? Are the Broncos being overlooked? And can the Indianapolis Colts cover a small number? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to answer these questions and give out their favorite bets across the NFL slate. Together they give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and so much more.
Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com
We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by Bet three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I am live from my Tommy John Home studio. And
in his Tommy John Home studio is my co host,
my companion, MI cam padre My BFF Professional Better Simon
(00:34):
Hunter ll s im.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
In Always ready, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Guess what we are going to be talking about? NFL
Week four best bets. This is where Simon and I
narrow down are five picks in the Favorites Podcast one
hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by bet
three six five sign up now Favorites Dot Action Network.
You can still win the one thousand dollars weekly prize
(01:04):
if you win best record for the week. We're gonna
get into the Foxhole. We're gonna give out our undefeated
Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week. No, I
did not just mush it. We're gonna discuss Signon's biggest bets.
We're gonna do our boosted money line underdog parlay, which
you will be able to bet at bet three sixty five.
(01:26):
We're gonna do the underdog round robin. So much more.
Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, Decisions need to
be made. As our old friend and volume podcast boss
Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money
out there. As a reminder, The Favorites Podcast is presented
by Bet three six five. New Bet three six five
(01:49):
customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when
you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites
deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five dollars
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three six ' five must be twenty one or older
(02:11):
and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
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right as always Thursdays during the season. We'd like to
(02:32):
hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation.
They all like to weigh in. They all call that's
how influential we are. Lines are move moving based on
our conversations. The pros feel compelled to tell us what
they think. Simon, what do you got for Sharp?
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Call? Hello, who's there?
Speaker 3 (02:53):
I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range?
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Somebody say it baby one.
Speaker 4 (03:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
They dropped on a couple of our bets, Chad.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
They moved Atlanta from one and a half of the
two and a half, and they moved the Colts down
from two to one and a half, which no shock here.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
That's the professional side. Side.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
We love talking about it. Side I was unsure about that.
I think you had more confidence in was the Jaguars.
I said, I'd bet if I got the seven. They
did get to seven. I did bet it. It's now
six and a half down to six. Of most books.
That's easily one of the more professional sides this week, right,
That's that's the side they're all taken where the general public,
they're all gonna be all over Houston, especially in their cheessers.
(03:31):
So we've seen that number now come back down to six.
Though before we got on here, I do.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Think that's a number. Come Sunday, that number on skyrocket again.
We're seeing it every single week, like these numbers are
moving big on Sundays as more and more money is
coming in.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
I'm not on the side, but it's the side that
you liked. Like I bet it earlier in the week.
I bet the Bears a minus one. The professionals do
love the Bears. I just I haven't really fully got
there now that it's up to three. Another one obviously,
we love Panthers plus four. A lot of guys talking
about that one with Atlanta as well. I didn't think
i'd get you there. It was Vegas, they were minus one.
(04:07):
They're now minus and minus two. Basically, I every probably
talked to head into that matchup has the same view
of it. It's just a good spot to keep fading.
Deshaun Watson. You know again we talked about that. We
knew coming into this, so this is gonna be pros
Verus shows. The public loves the bills. They're right now
in the action happen. I believe they're eighty percent of
the bets, eighty percent of the money is on the bills,
(04:28):
So professionals are the reason this number to stay where it's at.
It's the reason has not dipped down to two or
one and a half. It's it's pretty obvious what's either're on.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
So that's that's the number. I did bet.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
But now I'm hoping, because there's so much money right
now in the bills, that this number does eventually come down.
But yeah, Ravens minus two and a half feels like
that's gonna have to be the play chat.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
I know, I know, I'm actually not afraid of it.
I feel pretty good about it, to be honest, we're
gonna we're gonna dig into that game. Quick note for
Thursday night for those of you who do hear this
on Thursday, reminder, we played the Cowboys. We played it
at five and a half. That's when we talked about it.
Last Sunday. The line got down to four, back up
to four and a half, then five, then five and
(05:09):
a half. Now it's at six in a lot of places,
probably because we talked about it and all the Wise
Guys who have since played it. But look, the consensus
wise guy power rating on this Thursday game is in
six to seven. So it's finally getting to that spot,
all right. First game up Philadelphia Tampa Bay plus two
(05:31):
and a half. Strictly from a spread point of view,
the Bucks are definitely the right side, as you have
pointed out, the line touch three for a second before
getting back down to two and a half. But to me,
and this is where we have to have the conversation
that all assumes somewhat full strength on both sides and
(05:53):
instead we've got aj Brown, DeVante Smith, Lane Johnson. None
of them even participated in the Wednesday walkthrough Videvea Anchwine, Winfield,
Luke Getticky all questionable or out for the Bucks. So
(06:14):
who are we betting on in this game?
Speaker 3 (06:17):
No, it is. It's bad, but I think Evan had
some great trends about it as well. This Eagles team,
they're just a different team on the road, especially Jalen Hurts,
Like historically I looked to back them at home. Last
week was just a perfect storm of you know, the
price had gotten insane. I think the line had moved
six points or seven points from the Saints to being
(06:38):
a dog, from being a dog always to being a favorite.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
So it was like, okay, that.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Was a spot we want to take the Eagles here.
It just feels like they're a little overrated, right. You
just gave out all their injuries. This isn't the same offense.
And you know, as much as I like to knock
Dennis Allen, he is a good defensive mind.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
He kind of put it on there.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
For that Eagles team in the sense that the Eagles
do what they do right. They got a ton of yards,
but they failed a bunch of times once they got
into the red zone. I see kind of the same
thing here with Todd Bowles, Like he just the way
he went runs his defense, he's gonna he's gonna get
hurts eventually, Like he's gonna set up a trap and
if it hurts, will eventually.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Fall into it.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
And you know, the my big question, which I think
you talked about a little bit, is just this Bucks
team offensively. If this does all of a sudden turn
into a shootout, the Bucks just I feel like they
can't keep up.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
And that's hesitation for me.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
But you know, they talked this week, they said Bucker revenue,
you know, to me, sure, but their number of running
backs and to get more touches, that's a great way
to attack this Eagles team, right, get the get their
front tired, and that's really we see them struggle. So
there's a couple of things I do like about this,
But I think you're right where it's like, if it's
two and a half, I really like it. If it's
one and a half in our contest, obviously I wouldn't
(07:52):
take that. I think the value is when it's crossing
this key number of two. So for me, not only
do I like the match for this Bucks team, but
it's like the trends fading Hurts on the road has
been very profitable for me, So this is another spot
where I kind of want to fade him here on
the road. Especially the guy's leading the league in turnovers.
It's like, shouldn't we bet against that until he corrects it,
(08:13):
especially when he's no longer the dog, when he's the
favorite in these kind of spots. So yeah, it's really
what you talked about in the very beginning. It's about
playing the number. I make this closer to a pick.
It's two and a half. I'm gonna take that value
every time.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Look, Hurts has turnover problems, right, Yeah, one season might
be circumstances, bad offense, bad communication, heading into the quarter
season mark of another season. Then it's a thing. Then
it's like not reading things right, not holding onto the
(08:47):
ball carefully, not tucking it when you need to tuck it,
that all of a sudden becomes a trend, not just
an anomaly to me.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
I think he said, though, you're just trying to do
too much.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
That's his issue.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
It's like when you start trying to do much, you
don't play well and you kind of make big mistakes.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
I think sam can be said for Mahomes this year.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Mahomes has just been trying to do too much and
he's not how not looked like the QB were used to.
So he's in that same boat where it's just like,
you're right. If he doesn't correct these mistakes, you know,
there's not just a coaching change coming up. There's me
a total change of the offense where it's like, Okay,
we can't trust the ball in your hands. We're going
to take the ball out of your hands and give
it to aargably the best player on our team in
(09:25):
Saquon Barkley. So I'm with you on that One's it's
bad right now with him and what he's doing.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
With the ball.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Patrick Mahomes is so interesting. You know, I watched a
bunch of his press conference from this week where he's
talking about performance, and so many players when they talk,
they sound like automatons right, like they're trying to answer
so carefully. Patrick Mahomes didn't say anything revelatory when he
(09:57):
was speaking, but he has a way of speaking in
sort of his tone of voice and his rhythm and
his cadence that makes it sound like he's telling you
something natural and human that is revealing about a quarterback
he talked about forget about he hasn't been happy with
his performance, and not talking about stats, but where he's
putting the ball or where he's not putting the ball,
(10:17):
how he's finding people, how he's running the team, things
like that, all things that we are naturally seeing. But
the way he says it, I don't know if you
ever watched this or even sort of thought about this,
but he says it in a way that it's just
so natural and easy. And maybe this is because he's
had so many years of doing great. He has so
much confidence. He can say I'm not playing at my
(10:39):
best right now and not feel like he's going to
have to be defensive about it, but I find the
way he communicates to be fascinating.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
No, he's playing bad and he's three and oh it's
absolutely terrifying as a.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
Fan of any team in this league.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
By the way, yeah, yeah, speaking of bad. My exac
decision this week is a game you just referred to
the Chicago Bears. I think we'll get him at two
and a half in the contest. They're now at three.
While those guys have been coming in on this team,
they love them. So you know, last night I was
(11:14):
I was in New York and I had dinner with
my buddy Matt. Everyone knows Matt Matt. I was explaining
to Matt, as an investor with me in our betting
opportunities this year, that I was going with the Bears
this week, and obviously like Matt and I were going
(11:37):
to Bears games together. In nineteen eighty five, his parents
have season tickets. We went to every home game for
the Bears. We went to every playoff game together. I
went instead of his sister. We have sweated the Bears.
He went with me to the Bears Super Bowl in
two thousand and six, like three weeks after his third
kid was born. He left home and went to that
(11:59):
Bear Super Bowl with me. Like, we have been through
wars with this team.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
How many of you guys watched Ferris Beeler's day off together?
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Oh my god, so you know talk about the talk
about my life story? Right, was literally shot in the
ravine at the house in the ravine across from me. Like,
it's crazy, right, it's Cam's dad's house.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
I've always wondered that is that Is that actually near Chicago.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
That's in Highland Park. Oh shit, that's that's the house
I'm talking about. It's like, right, it's like it's like
behind my house, the glass Well, I don't remember. I
haven't even lived there in a long time. But here's
my point. I went through all the reasons of why
I was betting the Bears, why we as investors were
investing in the Bears, why are we well he at
(12:45):
the end of it, he looked at me and said,
listen everything. He I'm like, the five minutes at the
end of the game for the Rams, they were so lucky,
everything went right, they only had a five percent chance
of winning. Everything went wrong for the Bears, the whole
deep dive. And then he looked at me. He goes,
So we're going to bet on ebra Flus and Williams
(13:08):
against McVeigh and Stafford. Yeah, and I said, yes, yes
we are. And if we need to do a Capitol
call at some point in mid season because of calls
like this, I'm gonna be okay with it.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
Yeah, I would say.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
The only fear is is are we walking into it
again with the Is this like the Titans last week?
We're taking the lesser coach, the lesser QB against you know,
a matchup that we think is good. Like I totally agree, Like,
to me, this is really a bet on this Barrius defense,
Like this is a perfect matchup for you guys being
able to attack this Rams team. But yeah, it's tough
(13:46):
to get there, especially because the numbers up.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
To minus three now.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
So it's like, man, well I think in the contest
it'll be a two and a half. It's not going
to be a three and a half because this number
is at minus three and it's going to go back
down to two and a half. Would you see it
that way?
Speaker 3 (13:59):
I don't know, because, like you just said, like every
profession I talked to, for the most part, is on
this Bear side.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
They like this Bear side.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
They like the value here and it's you know, just
what we talked about, like a couple of little mistakes
here and there, they can fix it. They're a pretty
damn good team. I think one of the first things
they're trying to do is, you know, move away from
Swift where it's like, at the end of the day,
it's theo Lion's the problem. I don't know if Swift's
the biggest problem. His dance in the backfield's not helping.
But it's like, okay, if that's the one move they're
(14:28):
going to try to make this week, and maybe that
will work out for us.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
But they can't have Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Throwing fifty times, even though against his Rams team that
wouldn't be the worst thing, right, that's how you attack
this team. It's like they want that though, because eventually
he'll make a mistake and they'll capitalize on it. If
he turns them all over, that's what's going to keep
hurting this team. So this this is a tough game
to me. You're right, if it's two and a half,
it is very tempting to put into our contest because
it's a good number against a Rams team that you
(14:57):
just said it like that was their perfect game last week.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I just can't see them having back to back weeks
that way.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
There has never been a player in the NFL who
gets three yards faster than DeAndre Swift. Every time he
gets the ball, he's going so fast it looks like
he's going to gain fifty yards in a play. Three
yards later he gets tackled and it's a useless play.
Agree with me, right, because you were an Eagles fan,
like you've seen it. The guy shifty, he dances, it
(15:25):
looks like it's going to be an exciting play. He
gets three yards.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
It's It's also like, I don't I'll never get why
you guys signed them. I felt like you already had
a good backfield. It never made sense, and now you
think back, it's like it's twenty four million. It's just
it is a weird, weird move for the Bears to
get him. So I agree with that he dances way
too much.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
Well, listen, the only other thing I like about this is,
you know Chris Raybon his last seven bets last weekend,
he went seven to oher. I listened to the Action
Pod with Raymon and Stuckey in their Sunday six pack.
Raybon had the Bears, So that gives me a little
bit of hope, a little bit of hope. Teams coming
(16:05):
off a fourteen point plus comeback forty percent against the
spread in the next game. This is the ultimate by
low Cell. High go Bears, Hungry Bears are violent Bears.
New Orleans at Atlanta, don't laugh at me, don't laugh
at my joy and my passion. Come on, New Orleans
(16:28):
at Atlanta. It's two and a half. Look it was
at one and a half. You liked Atlanta. This is
to me, it is like the Eagles in Bucks game.
Though there's so many injuries on the Falcons offensive line,
like Drew Dolman is out, he's on IR and he
is the best player at his position in the NFL. Arguably,
(16:49):
Kaylen McGarry day to day did not practice on Wednesday.
Home Division faves forty five percent against the spreads in
twenty sixteen.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
I told you the line was bad. You were you
couldn't get there. You thought the line should move more
because these old line around. I told you I moved
it by half a point, made it two and a half.
It's now two and a half. So yeah, I'm with you.
It's like, I really love this line. I still love it,
but I know it's gonna be harder to get you there.
But I wish you had been at one and a half.
It feels pretty good to be holding a one and
a half ticket in this matchup. It's like, it feels
(17:20):
like this this number is gonna matter in this one.
It's just gonna be a close, ugly game. Went through
Evans trends there. Car tends to struggle in these kind
of matchups against Atlanta on the road, so another nice
spot for Atlanta trend wise as well. I still think
that the Saints are a little overrated. I just think
the number says that. It's like I told you, if
if there was no injury to this Falcons team, I
(17:42):
probably have this number at three three and a.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Half, all right.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
I did move to two and a half out of
respect to the injuries to have upfront. But it's like,
at what point do we come back on the other side.
It's just and it's Kirk Cousins at one pm, right.
We always joked like this is when you want to
bet Kirk Cousins at one pm these type of games.
So I get your hesitation though it's like it's it's
a big deal. But on the flip side, the Saints
(18:07):
they lost their all pro center as well, and like
we saw, they could not run the ball. We'll see
if Kamar practices. He didn't practice this week yet either, Like, so, okay,
take some hills out if Kamar is banged up. Now
you're taking away the run game, which is the only
reason the Saints were as good.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
As they've looked these past three weeks.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
You know, it all starts adding up where it's like,
how do you not take Atlanta here? So just something
to keep your eye on. If if they do have
a bunch of injuries to this backfield for this stats team,
it's just another reason for you to want to take Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Look, it's going to be interesting, right we're trying to
get five for the contest. We don't love putting in
that many favorites, and I feel like there's probably three
or four favorites that we are both going Between the
two of us, We're going to have strong opinions on
this week three.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
Though, like I would say, normally you're right, but on
certain weeks, yeah, like you gotta take someone sometimes you
got to take these little favorites, you know.
Speaker 1 (19:03):
Take the number that's in front of you.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
We have ugly dogs. I mean, fuck man, we're about
to go through it. We have like three just ugly dogs.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
So the mirror image here in terms of the spread
and the side that we like Minnesota at Green Bay.
This one's been bouncing around. It was at two and
a half, it touched three, it's back down to two
and a half. I think it might get back to
three at least that's what the juice is indicating you
liked Minnesota in this game. I think I've come around
(19:32):
to it.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Well we bet I don't know if you bet it,
but I bet green Bay minus two on Sunday and
now I've come back and I have bet the three
in Minnesota. But the pros actually love green Bay here,
and I'm just I just don't agree where It's like,
I feel like the advantage right goes to the Vikings.
With Jordan Love coming off as injury, it's like.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Is he rushing back?
Speaker 3 (19:54):
You know, I'll send you the clip or maybe the
film of it, but it's like Jordan Love has done
well against Brian Floores in this defense, like he knows
how to attack it same with the floor, and.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
You know that that might.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Be the reason why there's so much professional money coming
on Green Bay. So this is a game where I
have other dogs I like more than the Vikings. Maybe
I'll sit this one out. Just how to respect all
these different groups coming in so heavy on the screen
Bay eight team. But I think me and on the
same page where it's like, I trust this Vikings defense
against Love and the Vikings offense is just on another
(20:29):
level right now. So yeah, this is definitely an interesting line.
The trends haven't put out though they're not. They don't
favor these three and oh teams that are dogs this.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
Week, right But this is where it gets tricky. The
trends do favor the road dogs in these division games
by a wide margin, right right right, the home dog,
the home favorites, the short home favorites three points or
less forty five percent against the spread the past twenty years.
Home Division phase overall forty five percent against the spread
(21:00):
since twenty sixteen. So the Vikings are on the right
side of that trend. They're on the wrong side of
the undefeated trend. So then we got to take it
down to the base level of the teams in the personnel,
and I'm kind of with you. The Vikings defense. It's
not like Seattle's defense where they've beaten up on Bo
Nicks and Jacoby Brissett and a couple of high school
(21:22):
kids playing for Miami. They confused Rock Purty, they confused CJ. Stroud,
like two of the better quarterbacks by the way, against
the Blitz, two of the quarterbacks who thrive against the Blitz.
They were doing so much mixing and matching with their defense.
They made those quarterbacks look bad and that's why they
lost those games. Vikings defense is number one in DVA
(21:46):
started the season with five sacks and three straight games,
first time since ninety one. Like, this defense really good,
and they're going against a quarterback who may be rushing
back from a pretty bad injury. So I'm less. I'm
actually more around to it, I think than you are
at this point, certainly than you were than I was
on Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (22:07):
Yeah, it's just once again, I just all the professional
money come in.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
I have to respect it. These guys know what they're doing.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Respect respect. Well, here's one we can agree on, please,
and by the way, we do need to go into
the foxhole. So it's very possible we could go into
the Foxhall with Minnesota. No, okay, that's a hard noe,
hard pass from very hard pass. Simon. That was like
(22:37):
a disgusted, don't talk to me past all right. Pittsburgh
at Indianapolis, Simon says, when it was two, it's down
to one and a half. Moved almost immediately when you
made the announcement that it was Simon says, basically one
and a half everywhere. Look, I think the Steelers defense
(22:59):
is mitigated by the Colts top ranked, top ranked, past
blocking o line. The Steamers have a terrible offense. I
don't think it has an advantage over the cult middling defense. Yeah,
this is one of the bigger luck ranking games this
week with India as the unlucky team. It's in the
contest at one and a half. Say your piece, we
(23:25):
love it.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
The fear is, I'll say with the pushback is when
I talked to other pros what their hesitation is, because
this is this is a pros versus jos. The pros
absolutely love this Colts team. The public cannot get enough
of this Pittsburgh team. Like I was in Atlantic City
yesterday with the three different sports books it's each guy.
I was like, who is the most money coming in on?
Right now? It's always going to be the Eagle, especially
(23:47):
in Atlantic City. It's where it's proximity. Is number two
without a doubt. Was Pittsburgh, Like just you can't stop
get enough money on Pittsburgh. So right now you're saying
it's four to one money right now on Pittsburgh. Compared
it to this Colts team, So very telling because I
joke with them, I go, yeah, why don't you go
back up to two then? And he just gave me
a side I look of like, we don't need to.
We like this spot. So that gave me some confidence here.
(24:10):
I think me and you are only real hesitation. Here
is Anthony Richardson, like this guy is gonna burn us
on one.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Or two plays.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
Me and you know that when we bet, Yes, it's
it's just part of the deal here, especially when he's
going against you know, a top to top three defense
in this league. It's it's gonna happen. But I think
it nailed it. Like this, this old line is gonna
be the difference to me in this game. They're gonna
ball control with Jonathan Taylor. I believe you had over
one hundred yards two touchdowns last week against the Bears.
(24:37):
It's the same scenario here where it's like, Okay, the Bears,
the greatest strength they had was they're passing rush and
their pass attack and the secondary. Same thing to go
with this Pittsburgh team. It's like they they dominate teams
that they had the team when teams have to pass
against them. When you when you can run the ball,
control the clock, that's when they struggle.
Speaker 2 (24:56):
Right.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
So this, this Colts team, this is a they need
to get right spot. They just have not put it
together a complete game, even though it looked like they
did against that Bears team. That was just a really
sloppy game overall. So this, this to me, is a
nice spot historically Anthony richterest in his young career when
he faces really good defense as he performs really well
against them. So hopefully that trend continues here. Chat, it's
(25:19):
just really about trust the number as well, like I have.
The Colt is a small favorite in this matchup. You know,
I'm getting two points of value compared to my model
against a Pittsburgh team that we talked about. Eventually it's
going to go the other way, right, justin field. Isn't
this squeaky clean, never turn the ball over kind of guy.
He eventually has major mistakes. He just been very blessed
(25:40):
has not been put in those situations at all because
they've been playing with these leads. So yeah, I feel
like eventually it's going to catch up to him. We
would get some good value on a number. Now we're
getting it right. They're three to zero against the spread.
Three oh straight up this year, Pittsburgh. Eventually it's going
to run out. I feel like it does.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
Here, terrible, terrible spot from Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as
a road favorite. We know he obviously won this year
as a road favorite, but in his career, Mike Tomlin
is a road favorite, is as bad as he is
good as an underdog. So this is a spot where
do you want to fade Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
(26:18):
All Right, we know that one's getting in Washington, Arizona.
Arizona's a three and a half point favorite. This line
is held firm. I know, I'm really surprised because it
still feels to me like we are getting the Cardinals
at a really good time, Like their offense is improving.
(26:40):
Their defense is improving again. It's probably a by low
Sell high spot, maybe the most obvious by low Sell
high on the board because of Washington and what they did.
I feel I just got the sense just looking at
your face this second and the way you said that's true,
(27:02):
that you were wavering on this.
Speaker 3 (27:04):
I'm not. I bet it.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
The wavering is more just. I don't get why there's.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
So many professionals go on the other side taking this
Commanders team where it just feels like the obvious trap
where it's like this line hasn't moved too much in
your opinion, I thought it moved too much. And a
lot of guys are like, no, I think this is
where it should be in this type of matchup. And
it's like, man, I get Daniel's did look amazing, Like
we've never seen anything like that. This kid, you know,
(27:30):
one week he can't find the end zone, right, they
were driving at will against the Giants, couldn't find the
red zone. He follows it up where he couldn't miss
everything he did turn into a touchdown. So it's like
me and you have to ride those extremes here.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
We don't know what kind of get kid. We're getting here.
Speaker 3 (27:46):
But when I know one thing, I know what I'm
going to get on the Cardinals side is I like
the way they're set up right now, and I think
they're the way they are built is the same way
the Bucks were built. Against this team, it's like they
can ball control and have guys on the outside that
can eat this Commander's team. And defensively they have guys
that can get stops for them. Now their best de
tackle is probably gone for the season this Arizona team,
(28:09):
but they are getting an offensive lineman back this week,
so you know, not total cancel out.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
It's a big deal for their defense.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
But you know, this is a it's a young team
that they lost the veteran on the defensive front. But
you know this this number is just a tricky one
where it's like, I really like Arizona. I feel like
I'm missing something here and I don't know what that is,
because to me, this is.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Touch a letdown spot.
Speaker 3 (28:32):
Especially Holy shit, man, can can Jane Daniels gonna any
more smoke one up his ass?
Speaker 2 (28:36):
This week? It's been ridiculous where yeah it's well.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
Deserved, but these conversations of these guys taking the victory
laps of being like, see, I told you should have
went one over Williams. It's like Jesus christ Man, these
people are the fucking worst.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
These are the same people.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
That were touting Bryce Young to be the number one
pick for six months.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
They just they're no different.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
So I don't think this is at all comparable to
Bryce Young CJ from last year.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
The gap between Caleb.
Speaker 3 (29:01):
And Jaden Daniels wasn't that huge, but when you factor
in age, it was a big deal. It's like, why
would you take a guy who's two three years older
than Caleb Williams. It just didn't make sense when they're
They're playing style is not that much different. So yeah,
for this matchup, Chad, you know, I get the hesitation,
the fear that I have right now with this Arizona
(29:22):
team because something just seems off for this number. But
at three and a half, we think Arizona is a
good team. We think they're a playoff team. If they are,
this is a game they should smack the hell out
of US Washington team after that type of game. So
this this is the only Again, the only fear here
is we're walking to a team and that's just on
our role in Washington. Right, everything is just clicking for them.
(29:42):
But this is historically through Evans trends. This is a
perfect spot to fade the Jaden Daniels.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Look, the line has moved two points. You're getting a
little bit of blowback from wise guys. Are we in
the foxhill right now?
Speaker 2 (29:57):
I'll do it. I love it right in the fox
hill with.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
The Arizona Cardinals. Let's clid down into the foxhole. No
better team to be in the foxhole with than the
Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray. Guess what time it is, Simon,
It is time four hour Big Ball, Better the Week
(30:24):
presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support. Great games start with great underwear
and Tommy John, as you know, makes the greatest. And
it's one of the reasons why we are undefeated so
far this year with our big Balls Beat of the Week,
(30:45):
and it's why we are so comfortable going with the
depleted run down Los Angeles Chargers lost seven and a
half as home underdogs against the King's City Chiefs. Simon,
we said it before we came on the air, but
we were discussing what we were going to do. I said,
(31:07):
I think we got to go with the Chargers. You
blanched everything about our philosophy, our history, our passion for betting,
says we take the Chargers. Here, are you my betting buddy?
Speaker 3 (31:23):
I am no. I love the Chargers. My whole hesitation.
I think you know it is this was eight and
a half. We both bet it. I don't know if
you bet at eight and a half or got it eight,
but it was like it was at a really nice number.
Now it's down to seven and a half. I'll bet
it again with you, like I love this number.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
I love this spot.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
I'll put in the contest, and it's really about my
homes and this Chiefs team. I feel like there's still
getting way too much respect. On the flip side, this
Chargers team is banged up as they are, they can
kind of keep this game close, right We talked about
that there's ways.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
For them to stay in this game and keep this
one close.
Speaker 3 (31:52):
So it's obviously we're both hoping it's Herbert. I feel
way more confident in taking this number, but I think
the number saying that Herbert's not going to play. But
you know, I'm looking at the live just since you
mentioned this game. This number is already moving.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
To seven a couple books.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
So I would say most of the guys listening to
the show love this game as well. Hopefully you guys
are all right, because I like it too.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
I just don't have this.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
You have way more confident, I would say, in Tyler
Heineke and this John Harball team than I do. So
I'm definitely kind of trusting Mahomes isn't right yet and
this Chargers defense will to get some takeaways. So let's
let's take the ugly seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
I'm with you, brother, an ugly seven and a half
where joe al Rashaun Slater likely out, Joey Bosa did not,
jo might be out to Yeah, Justin Herbert was limited.
This is a luck game favoring the Chargers. The Chiefs
have grated out as the luckiest team so far in
(32:51):
our luck rankings, Simon. But I'm not worried because if
Taylor Heineke goes backup QB's fifty five percent against spread
since twenty twenty one, dogs have six plus points or
more eight and five straight up, twelve and one against the
spread through the first three weeks. I am not not afraid.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
Oh man, I didn't know Joe All was out to me.
That is a big that's a bigger deal because now
you're down both tackles. Shit, man, I mean this takes.
This takes some big balls jab making this bet.
Speaker 1 (33:23):
We got big balls, Simon. Our big balls are supported
by the underwear that we put on every Sunday. It's
the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It is the
second skin that has given me the confidence to make
bets like the Los Angeles Chargers without anyone on their
(33:47):
offensive line. They are giving free runs to the Kansas
City Chiefs defensive line, and we're still going with them.
When you're truly comfortable, you can be better. If you
love Simon and I, if you love this show, you
love Tommy John, gey five percent off your first order
right now at Tommy john dot com slash favorites. Save
twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites.
(34:09):
I feel like I'm going to have a hard time
getting you to get the charters into the contest. We
got a couple more games here Cleveland at the Raiders.
You've been all over this. It was at minus one.
It actually moved from Cleveland minus one to Raiders minus one.
Now at Raiders minus two, what do you have this
power rader at Do you still have an edge in
this game? Are we worried? Well, let's let's answer that.
Speaker 3 (34:30):
Yeah, I got it minus three, So yeah, I still
show value here. You know, I I did have it
at minus three and a half. Idjusted it down a
little bit just because I think Minshew is just struggling
a little bit and they don't really have a run
game right now. But you know, my view of this
chat is just Watson has historically been horrible. If if
(34:53):
you look at I think a Browns fan did a
chart and it was basical of all the quarterbacks they've
had since I think two thousand and one. If you
go look at that list of these names of these quarterbacks, Jack,
you'd be amazed at.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
Some of these names.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
You know, who's number two worst quarterback in that entire
span to Shaun Watson. So it's it's pretty telling how
bad they've been. You know, it's not gonna get any better.
We talked about they've already there lost another starter from
their offensive line, Miles Garrett. I mean, what by week
eight is probably gonna be shut down getting surgery because
(35:25):
this team is just is not gonna have a winning record.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
It's just a nice spot to attack this team. It's just.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
I just can't get over how bad they are. And
then you factor in like all these trends evn't had
about the Browns traveling from East Coast to West coast.
Historically they've been terrible, you know, the Raiders as well.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Raiders at home.
Speaker 3 (35:45):
I know they just got wildped and embarrassed by the Panthers,
but they usually play well at home, you know. So
I'm just I'm just thinking about the Max Crosby Wilkens
matchup with this O line. It's just how does Watson
beat us this? They're gonna fold them up. Man, He's
gonna be a lawn share in this game. It's just
it's just such a great match of the Raiders team.
That's why you've seen this number move and I'll just
(36:06):
see the action app real quick. Yeah, it's I mean,
it's professionals. Sixty five percent of the money right now
is coming in on the Vikings, even though fifty percent
of the tickets right now is on the Browns.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
So the Raiders.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Yeah, so it's I don't know, I do really like
the Raiders. I know it's gonna be hard to convince
you on this one, just because there are so many
questions about this team, but I'll send you some of
these trends Evan has about this Browns team. Man, but man,
this is just such a fade spot. They won't be
a team I'd back at all the Browns until they
do make a switch a quarterback position. You know, they're
(36:42):
one win this year there one cover was against the
Jaguars team that just looks lost. So yeah, there's a
lot of reasons to like this Vegas team to bounce
back here in a spot they usually win.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
So here's the one thing I'll say about historical team trends.
I don't care about him. Like, to me, they're not
indicative of anything because these teams change so much year
to year. Circumstances change. I don't care about historical team trends.
I think what's interesting to me is how if we're
(37:16):
going to say Jalen Hurts is having turnover issues and
one season is circumstantial, in the beginning of a second
season becomes habitual, Deshaun Watson has reached post habitual just
bad stages, right, like we tried making so many excuses
for this guy over the last two plus years and
(37:40):
it's just not there. And I think that's why everyone
is starting to feel more comfortable betting against him. Like
people are always in the back of their mind worried
that he's going to pop off, right, that he's going
to have that game, that he's going to find the magic,
that he's going to be who he was, to paraphrase
Rick Patino, Bernie Kosar is not walking through that door.
(38:03):
Like he's just not a very good quarterback right now.
So I'm with you. I'm with you, and I'm super
excited to now have the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Bears
as short favorites in the contest this week. Or should
we go with Baltimore minus two and a half, which
(38:26):
feels like something that we want to do and Faden
an undefeated MVP leading team for a underperforming team that
feels a little schizophrenic whose defense has not performed well
that almost gave up a twenty five point lead or
(38:48):
whatever it was, twenty two point lead to the Dallas Cowboys.
Let's go Ravens.
Speaker 2 (38:54):
I know, I think we both know this.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
We're supposed to do but it is horribly terrifying, especially
when you just think about this Ravens team right now.
They've been dominant against the run, like I think their
second best defense EPA per play against the run. But
it's because team's gonna pass it against him. I mean,
that's that's been really that's been a problem this year,
(39:17):
Like teams are being able to pass the ball through the.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
Air against this Ravens team. Now we have the.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
MVP coming in with you know, the bunch of nameless joes,
but he's making it work. Like when you don't know
who he's gonna go to, who's gonna have to force
the ball to, it's terrifying. I mean you if you,
I don't know, if you rewatch that Jaguars game, it
might be two too painful. But I loved it, even
though I lost money obviously. It's just like he was
so good. He's so good, like every ball was right
(39:46):
where it need to be, is protecting his receivers, hitting
guys in stride. I get the hesitation for everybody for
this one, but me and Chad always played these kind
of spots. Teams aren't going sixteen seventeen and oh they're
gonna lose game.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
They're gonna drop games.
Speaker 3 (40:01):
And you know, maybe he's too hot and we're a
little too early stepping in front of him here. But
historically this is the number we do play. And I
mean we even talked about the action app right now,
all the bets, all the money, believe it's eighty percent,
it's all in this Bills team.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
This number hasn't budged, Chad, It's not budged.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
So sports books know this is going to be the
number one teas team this week. Right, Why would you.
Speaker 2 (40:27):
Not take the Bills up day and a half? Fuck
I did it.
Speaker 3 (40:31):
I don't know, I don't I can't remember the last
time Josh Allen lost by more than a touchdown. I
just I've been thinking about it before we came on here.
I was trying to think of that game, and it's like,
I really can't do it. This guy just always plays
it tough. So we're basically betting on last possession. Our
gual Lamar's got it. He drives a field and our
eighty year old kicker, Justin Tucker kicks one through for us.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
We cover this number, like, because.
Speaker 1 (40:54):
This is technique is coming back to us.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
This just feels like such a sharp number, Like there's
a reason they're holding it here at two and a half.
And Chad knows as well, like the same reason I
wanted to bet Lamar last week, you got him under three.
If you have him under a field goal, He's twenty
three and seven against the spread in his career.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
So I just.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
Blindly got to keep betting this spot. I mean, it's
just made me so much money over the years, and
I just keep doing it. So, yeah, have all the
ones you've talked about, Like I could see us leaving
this one out just because this one really does make
me sick to my stomach, Like we even talk about
another game that makes me sick to my stomach. But
I feel more confident betting it just because there's reasons
to bet it. Where we're literally our biggest reason for
(41:35):
betting this right now is just the Bills have played.
I'd say, the Cardinals are all right, Miami's dog shit,
and the Jaguars don't look any better.
Speaker 2 (41:44):
So it's like we're.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
Kind of betting on is he really this good or
is he just been beating.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
Up on bad defenses. That's kind of what this bet.
Speaker 3 (41:51):
Is right now. So it sounds crazy, We're saying to
Josh Allam, and prove it to us again. But that's
what it feels we're doing here, Chad taking the Raims.
It's like, oh, Okay, you've done great, You've looked great
to start this year. Now play a really good team
that's one and two and desperate at home in prime
time on Sunday night, Like this is going to be
a great test for him in this Bills team. So yeah,
(42:12):
the more we talk about now, I'm starting to feel
a little better about this Ravens team.
Speaker 1 (42:15):
Takes nothing but blind faith to convince any better. All
they got to do is talk about it for him,
be like, of course, I'm betting this game. You went
from sick to my stomach to feeling confident.
Speaker 2 (42:27):
He's not confident. I would not take Josh Allen.
Speaker 3 (42:30):
I'm telling you, if you watch that Jaguars game, he
looks like a man on a mission, right.
Speaker 1 (42:33):
He was amazing. And that is the one thing that
worries me is this Ravens defense is not great up
the middle right now, And like the Jaguars were parting
the sea for Josh Allen and he would just do
whatever he wanted to do. He was toying with them.
Speaker 2 (42:49):
Kyle Hamilton disappointed.
Speaker 3 (42:51):
I mean, have you heard his name at all this season?
Speaker 1 (42:53):
And like last year, we loved him. He was everywhere,
He was everywhere.
Speaker 3 (42:57):
So that's that's been the biggest difference. Like whatever you
know Mike McDonald took with him to Seattle. They have
not figured that out in Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (43:06):
Well, speaking of Mike McDonald, the one thing I will
say before we get to him and soon.
Speaker 2 (43:12):
I feel like you're passing on the game we talked
about and we love. I am Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (43:21):
Well I thought we weren't going to talk about it
because well because now the numbers down to six and
so like the value.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Six and a half's out there.
Speaker 3 (43:29):
I do want before we move too fast, I want
fans to know, like two games I think we're not
going to talk about I love Jaguars. You can Chad
loves it too. You can get six and a half
out there. I still like the Panthers. I don't know
if you're as luke warm or warm on the Panthers,
but you can still get a plus four four and
a half of a couple of books on this Panthers team.
Just before we totally move off of them.
Speaker 1 (43:48):
I'm not. I like the Jags. I think it's a
good spot for them. I'm not convinced on the Panthers
right now because I think it's a It's the reverse
of Bilos high. I think you're buying high on the
Panthers and I think you're selling low.
Speaker 3 (44:04):
I'm telling you, the only professionals betting the Panthers still
the public fucking hates them. Everyone is betting the Bengals.
That's how it is.
Speaker 4 (44:12):
Man.
Speaker 3 (44:12):
They just who you're gonna bet on, Joe Burrow or
Andy Dalton. They're pretty simple creatures that way. They go, oh,
I guess I'll go Andy Dalton. I guess I'll go
Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1 (44:20):
Then it's like, all right, yeah, of course that's what
the public is gonna do. I'm just I'm skeptical that
the Panthers can do it again, you know what I mean. Like,
we've lost so much money on this team. We did
make we did make some of it back last week,
(44:40):
but it was the exact right spot to make it back,
and this feels like the exact right spot to lose
it again. Coming home a ton of confidence, thinking oh
my god, we're actually a good team we just needed
a capable quarterback and they are going against a team
that is like needs a win for their longs. They
(45:05):
need to win this game. Their season is over if
they don't win this game.
Speaker 3 (45:10):
Yeah, And I get I get where you're coming from,
and I think people think the same way.
Speaker 2 (45:14):
But it's just.
Speaker 3 (45:16):
I don't think it matters because Joe Burrow, as great
as he is, it's like they don't have the pieces defensively.
And I saw Chase hasn't practiced this week. He might
have a bad shoulder, so he might he might miss
this game, which is another big deal to this this
Bengo's offense. So I get your hesitation. Man, I don't
feel great about it either. I just think Andy Dalton's
given them such a spark. I think this is a
(45:36):
totally different team. This is the team I thought they
were going to be coming into this season, where it's
like they have offensive weapons that can beat you with
and their defense is bad, but they're young and there's
ways they can attack you defensively. So you're right, like,
if you want to wait and see them doing another game,
I totally get it, because it's like I'm not standing
on my soapbox here saying this needs to be one
(45:57):
of our five. I just people need to know I
did bet this pan their side, and you know I
would take it down at the three and a half.
Speaker 1 (46:04):
Mike McDonald is getting you know, the he's a brilliant
young coach. Oh my god, what a culture changer he
is treatment around the media this week. It's what happens
when you've got the number one rated defense because you've
beaten up on Bnick's Jacoby Brissett and Skyler Thompson, and
(46:25):
this line has moved aggressively. It's down to three and
a half. Visiting the Detroit Lions on Monday night. You
like Seattle, I think Seattle is not as good as
it's played. You think they are as good. I think
Detroit is better than they have played. And getting a
team at its exact peak right now, Yeah, because.
Speaker 2 (46:49):
I mean we joke all the time.
Speaker 3 (46:50):
I mean about the same thing we just said of
the Bills, right, it's like, well, who they really beat?
Speaker 2 (46:55):
They still beat them?
Speaker 3 (46:56):
Like you can't say the same for Cincinnati Bengals, who
lost to New England at home and lost Commanders at home. Right,
so city early in the year here, teams actually can
show up, especially with a new coach. I felt like
the Seattle was the professional side. Clearly it was right.
We've gone for four and a half now down to
three and a half, so it's like, okay, at least
I'm on the same side as the pros. That makes
me feel a little better. But you're right, like, as
(47:17):
the number moved too much, now, would I touch it? No,
it's down to three and a half now, I'm happy
to sit on my four four and a half ticket
and let this one play out here. But they're just
I told you my main questions right now is about golf.
He's not looked right through three weeks. They should be
dominating these teams. They've played like their defense is so
much better this year than they have been in previous seasons.
(47:40):
I mean it's just glaring and they're running attack where
it's like you guys can just lean on these teams,
bullyball them like you have the guys up front, and
it just has not worked. So I won't make this
one number five, right because the numbers moved too much,
and I don't think you're anywhere close to my confidence
on the Seattle team.
Speaker 2 (47:58):
But yeah, this is uh.
Speaker 3 (48:00):
I don't know if if the Lions lost this game,
I'd have to totally reevaluate them, because right now I
have them power rate is the number two best team
in the NFC, And it's like, if they drop this one, man,
it's just gonna be such a bad look.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
So yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (48:13):
It's like I feel I feel a little bit hesitation
bet in this one as well.
Speaker 1 (48:17):
I don't know who our five are right now, but
I do you know our five is loaded with a
lot of favorites. We're gonna put Indy in there, obviously.
I feel strongly we're going to put Chicago in there.
I think it's like, I.
Speaker 2 (48:32):
Mean, you want to get Chargers in, right, are big balls?
Speaker 1 (48:34):
I mean we've got to get the Chargers in. Yeah,
But like after that, Arizona Love Arizona.
Speaker 3 (48:41):
Yeah, Like I love love Tampa. I know you're not
there on Tampa.
Speaker 1 (48:45):
If you love Tampa, I could get there on Tampa,
like I you know, I don't.
Speaker 3 (48:49):
I'm if Kamar is out, could I get you there
in Atlanta come Sunday? Probably? I think that's a big bill, right.
Speaker 1 (48:57):
I think we have to wait until Sunday to really
sort of nail it. I don't think.
Speaker 3 (49:01):
We're definitely gonna lock in our five though, So if
people want to see him right, they can hop on
and click on us and see who we picked right
for our five. But yeah, I would say there's like
seven teams right now. Feels like we get there, and
even I know you're not loving the Jaguars, but if
they're six and a half in contest, it's kind of
tempting with all the trends that point to this team
(49:21):
where historically we've just seen Houston, they don't they don't
do well as these big favorites.
Speaker 2 (49:26):
And you know, not saying the book is that on CJ.
Speaker 3 (49:30):
But he is really bad against man coverage and he's
great against zone. You know who runs the most man
coverage in all football, the shitty ass Jaguars team. So
it's like there are some reasons too like this Jaguars
team outside of just the trends. But I'm with you,
like this week we're heavy on the Chalcombe favorites.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
All right, Let's get to our parlay section here, turning
good weekends into great weekends. It's to for the money
line parlay underdog money line parlay from bet three six
five each week we are giving out a two team
money line dog parlay and Bet three six five boosts
(50:12):
the odds and highlights it on that site all weekend
long under both game pages. Our week four boosted underdog
money line parlay we are going with the Indianapolis Colts
and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Find the boosts under either
(50:34):
the Colts or Bucks game pages on bet three six five. Remember,
both games are eligible for bet three six five's early
payoff promo, where your money line pick gets marked as
a win if they take a seventeen point lead even
if they lose. So if you want to bet this,
bet it at bet three six five. We also got
(50:55):
to do our money line underdog round robin. There will
come up heayday, Halla, lou Yo wanta pay day.
Speaker 2 (51:05):
There will come.
Speaker 3 (51:06):
Up payday some day.
Speaker 1 (51:07):
Some day.
Speaker 4 (51:09):
There will come up heayday, Hall Yo, Way will come
up payday some day.
Speaker 1 (51:16):
Here's my my suggestions. Ready, chargers, charge chargers, sick for
you are sick.
Speaker 3 (51:24):
All right, chargers, there's no I love Minnesota, Tampa Bay
love Tampa.
Speaker 1 (51:32):
I mean we gotta do Indye, gotta do Indy Panthers,
Jags love Panthers.
Speaker 2 (51:38):
And let's definitely do Jaguars, right all right?
Speaker 1 (51:41):
So who do we just say? Minnesota? Uh Indy, Tampa,
Panthers and Jags.
Speaker 3 (51:50):
Ye, look at that back to back weeks taking the
money line on this Panthers.
Speaker 1 (51:55):
Team because you're a coward and don't want to put
the Chargers in there, which is fine. Give me your
big bets right now, you know the numbers.
Speaker 3 (52:02):
It just Mahomes doesn't look doesn't lose to his division.
Speaker 2 (52:05):
He doesn't cover, but he doesn't lose to his division.
Speaker 1 (52:07):
Don't give me your excuses.
Speaker 2 (52:10):
What'd you ask me before?
Speaker 1 (52:11):
What are your biggest bets?
Speaker 2 (52:16):
I'm pretty spread out.
Speaker 3 (52:17):
I would say the cold Stuffie in one of my
bigger bets right now, Tampa, Arizona, Vegas and the Ravens.
After we get off the air, I'll probably hit the
Chargers even more because I just feel like the seven
and a half is going to disappear. Probably gonna wait
and see what the Kamara news is. Like I was
(52:38):
having invested in Atlanta one and a half. I have
not bet them at two and a half yet, but
if he is out Kamar, I'm probably gonna attack the
Atlanta line even more so. Yeah, right now, the earliest
biggest bets. We'll go Colds, Tampa, Ravens, and Vegas.
Speaker 1 (52:54):
Give me your scoot through, lad because you won last week.
You had the Ravens, I had Miami.
Speaker 3 (53:00):
What the fuck you had Miami and scoot Rolette. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (53:02):
I went with Denver and then Evan like did his
segment and Mike talked me out of it.
Speaker 2 (53:09):
Eh, you son of a bitch?
Speaker 1 (53:11):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (53:15):
Shit, Oh man, I got a double dip. I guess
I'll go with the fucking Colts.
Speaker 1 (53:21):
Oh dude, I was going to take the Colts.
Speaker 2 (53:23):
I love them.
Speaker 1 (53:25):
I know what I'm doing. You're taking the Colts. I'm
taking Arizona, Okay, but I really want the Colts. All right,
Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director
of Research, Evan Abrams for the final word.
Speaker 3 (53:38):
The last word with Evan Abrams, we're.
Speaker 4 (53:42):
Finished talking, all right, guys. Well, it's time to jink
Simon this week. So let's start with the Colts. I'm
going to keep this super simple because it really doesn't
have to be much more complicated than this. When opponents
score more than twenty points versus a Justin Fields led team,
they're twenty one and oh straight up all thirteen fields,
wins have come with opponents scoring twenty points or less,
(54:03):
with their teams averaging thirteen points per game. Richardson just
needs to put points on the board and you'll win
the bet. So hopefully that happens. Let's move on to
the next AFC team. Here, we're gonna talk about the Broncos.
Now you have to understand the process in putting these
notes together. I'm trying to predict a little bit of
who you guys are gonna like during the show. Give
a little momentum, you know, reinforcement, it's always important. So
(54:24):
we're gonna go with the Broncos here. I think we
like them against the Jets this week. But the Jets' schedule.
Jets are the only third team in the last eighty
years to play the first three games of a season
within eleven day span. Twenty eighteen Jets and the twenty
thirteen Eagles the other two teams. So the twenty four
Jets are the only teams to pose a winning record
during that three game span. But also those other two
(54:46):
teams lost by seventeen plus in Week four and both
finish the season under five hundred against the spread, So
maybe a little bit of impact there. And it's also
worth noting this is the first time Sean Payton's team
will start the season as a dog in four straight
since his rookie year in two thousand and six with
New Orleans and Peyton's teams as a dog September October
(55:08):
thirty thirteen and one against the number. So pretty good
and done pretty well this year. And now I got
to answer Simon's question from before, so this was a
quick look up. So I'm pretty sure this one's right.
But Josh Allen's last forty nine starts, he's only lost
by seven or more once Bengals in the playoffs in
twenty twenty three. Lots of losses, but by four, three, six,
(55:29):
et cetera. So pretty crazy. But this is why you
might want to look at Baltimore. So it is a
tough spot for the Bills. Third straight night game and
listed as a road dog, only the third team in
that spot in the last decade. Those teams zero win
three straight up. But more importantly, they're allowing thirty five
points per game, so hopefully Baltimore and Romark can get
(55:51):
the offense going. And also just a unique spot all around,
Bills are three and oh, Ravens are one and two,
and the Bills are underdogs in this game a three
and oh team. There's only been a dog to a
team with one win or less six times last twenty years.
They're one in five straight up, losing by almost ten
points per game. So signs point to Baltimore. Both see
how it goes, guys.
Speaker 2 (56:12):
It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save.
Speaker 1 (56:15):
You all of a sudden. I think your reason for
your quick turn there from six to your stomach from
feeling confident. Now we feel even more confident. What I'm
not gonna do is put Baltimore in as my scoo
trewe lad. I'm gonna stick with Arizona, even though I've
never felt better about the Baltimore Ravens. As a reminder,
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
(56:35):
and this just in new Bet three six five customers
now get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit
ten dollars in place a bet for five dollars to
get two one hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
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(56:57):
three six five must be twenty one. We're older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply, Simon or I. We'll return
(57:18):
with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action
Network YouTube page on Sunday night, seven point thirty pm Eastern.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to the Action Network
YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you
get your pods, rate review, subscribe, vis five stars, say
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Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
(57:47):
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Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler.
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by Bet three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I am live from my Tommy John Home studio. And
in his Tommy John Home studio is my co host,
my companion, MI cam padre My BFF Professional Better Simon
(00:34):
Hunter ll s im.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
In Always ready, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Guess what we are going to be talking about? NFL
Week four best bets. This is where Simon and I
narrow down are five picks in the Favorites Podcast one
hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by bet
three six five sign up now Favorites Dot Action Network.
You can still win the one thousand dollars weekly prize
(01:04):
if you win best record for the week. We're gonna
get into the Foxhole. We're gonna give out our undefeated
Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week. No, I
did not just mush it. We're gonna discuss Signon's biggest bets.
We're gonna do our boosted money line underdog parlay, which
you will be able to bet at bet three sixty five.
(01:26):
We're gonna do the underdog round robin. So much more.
Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, Decisions need to
be made. As our old friend and volume podcast boss
Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money
out there. As a reminder, The Favorites Podcast is presented
by Bet three six five. New Bet three six five
(01:49):
customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when
you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites
deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five dollars
to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. A bet
three six ' five must be twenty one or older
(02:11):
and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all
right as always Thursdays during the season. We'd like to
(02:32):
hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation.
They all like to weigh in. They all call that's
how influential we are. Lines are move moving based on
our conversations. The pros feel compelled to tell us what
they think. Simon, what do you got for Sharp?
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Call? Hello, who's there?
Speaker 3 (02:53):
I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range?
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Somebody say it baby one.
Speaker 4 (03:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
They dropped on a couple of our bets, Chad.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
They moved Atlanta from one and a half of the
two and a half, and they moved the Colts down
from two to one and a half, which no shock here.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
That's the professional side. Side.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
We love talking about it. Side I was unsure about that.
I think you had more confidence in was the Jaguars.
I said, I'd bet if I got the seven. They
did get to seven. I did bet it. It's now
six and a half down to six. Of most books.
That's easily one of the more professional sides this week, right,
That's that's the side they're all taken where the general public,
they're all gonna be all over Houston, especially in their cheessers.
(03:31):
So we've seen that number now come back down to six.
Though before we got on here, I do.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Think that's a number. Come Sunday, that number on skyrocket again.
We're seeing it every single week, like these numbers are
moving big on Sundays as more and more money is
coming in.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
I'm not on the side, but it's the side that
you liked. Like I bet it earlier in the week.
I bet the Bears a minus one. The professionals do
love the Bears. I just I haven't really fully got
there now that it's up to three. Another one obviously,
we love Panthers plus four. A lot of guys talking
about that one with Atlanta as well. I didn't think
i'd get you there. It was Vegas, they were minus one.
(04:07):
They're now minus and minus two. Basically, I every probably
talked to head into that matchup has the same view
of it. It's just a good spot to keep fading.
Deshaun Watson. You know again we talked about that. We
knew coming into this, so this is gonna be pros
Verus shows. The public loves the bills. They're right now
in the action happen. I believe they're eighty percent of
the bets, eighty percent of the money is on the bills,
(04:28):
So professionals are the reason this number to stay where it's at.
It's the reason has not dipped down to two or
one and a half. It's it's pretty obvious what's either're on.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
So that's that's the number. I did bet.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
But now I'm hoping, because there's so much money right
now in the bills, that this number does eventually come down.
But yeah, Ravens minus two and a half feels like
that's gonna have to be the play chat.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
I know, I know, I'm actually not afraid of it.
I feel pretty good about it, to be honest, we're
gonna we're gonna dig into that game. Quick note for
Thursday night for those of you who do hear this
on Thursday, reminder, we played the Cowboys. We played it
at five and a half. That's when we talked about it.
Last Sunday. The line got down to four, back up
to four and a half, then five, then five and
(05:09):
a half. Now it's at six in a lot of places,
probably because we talked about it and all the Wise
Guys who have since played it. But look, the consensus
wise guy power rating on this Thursday game is in
six to seven. So it's finally getting to that spot,
all right. First game up Philadelphia Tampa Bay plus two
(05:31):
and a half. Strictly from a spread point of view,
the Bucks are definitely the right side, as you have
pointed out, the line touch three for a second before
getting back down to two and a half. But to me,
and this is where we have to have the conversation
that all assumes somewhat full strength on both sides and
(05:53):
instead we've got aj Brown, DeVante Smith, Lane Johnson. None
of them even participated in the Wednesday walkthrough Videvea Anchwine, Winfield,
Luke Getticky all questionable or out for the Bucks. So
(06:14):
who are we betting on in this game?
Speaker 3 (06:17):
No, it is. It's bad, but I think Evan had
some great trends about it as well. This Eagles team,
they're just a different team on the road, especially Jalen Hurts,
Like historically I looked to back them at home. Last
week was just a perfect storm of you know, the
price had gotten insane. I think the line had moved
six points or seven points from the Saints to being
(06:38):
a dog, from being a dog always to being a favorite.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
So it was like, okay, that.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Was a spot we want to take the Eagles here.
It just feels like they're a little overrated, right. You
just gave out all their injuries. This isn't the same offense.
And you know, as much as I like to knock
Dennis Allen, he is a good defensive mind.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
He kind of put it on there.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
For that Eagles team in the sense that the Eagles
do what they do right. They got a ton of yards,
but they failed a bunch of times once they got
into the red zone. I see kind of the same
thing here with Todd Bowles, Like he just the way
he went runs his defense, he's gonna he's gonna get
hurts eventually, Like he's gonna set up a trap and
if it hurts, will eventually.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Fall into it.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
And you know, the my big question, which I think
you talked about a little bit, is just this Bucks
team offensively. If this does all of a sudden turn
into a shootout, the Bucks just I feel like they
can't keep up.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
And that's hesitation for me.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
But you know, they talked this week, they said Bucker revenue,
you know, to me, sure, but their number of running
backs and to get more touches, that's a great way
to attack this Eagles team, right, get the get their
front tired, and that's really we see them struggle. So
there's a couple of things I do like about this,
But I think you're right where it's like, if it's
two and a half, I really like it. If it's
one and a half in our contest, obviously I wouldn't
(07:52):
take that. I think the value is when it's crossing
this key number of two. So for me, not only
do I like the match for this Bucks team, but
it's like the trends fading Hurts on the road has
been very profitable for me, So this is another spot
where I kind of want to fade him here on
the road. Especially the guy's leading the league in turnovers.
It's like, shouldn't we bet against that until he corrects it,
(08:13):
especially when he's no longer the dog, when he's the
favorite in these kind of spots. So yeah, it's really
what you talked about in the very beginning. It's about
playing the number. I make this closer to a pick.
It's two and a half. I'm gonna take that value
every time.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Look, Hurts has turnover problems, right, Yeah, one season might
be circumstances, bad offense, bad communication, heading into the quarter
season mark of another season. Then it's a thing. Then
it's like not reading things right, not holding onto the
(08:47):
ball carefully, not tucking it when you need to tuck it,
that all of a sudden becomes a trend, not just
an anomaly to me.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
I think he said, though, you're just trying to do
too much.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
That's his issue.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
It's like when you start trying to do much, you
don't play well and you kind of make big mistakes.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
I think sam can be said for Mahomes this year.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Mahomes has just been trying to do too much and
he's not how not looked like the QB were used to.
So he's in that same boat where it's just like,
you're right. If he doesn't correct these mistakes, you know,
there's not just a coaching change coming up. There's me
a total change of the offense where it's like, Okay,
we can't trust the ball in your hands. We're going
to take the ball out of your hands and give
it to aargably the best player on our team in
(09:25):
Saquon Barkley. So I'm with you on that One's it's
bad right now with him and what he's doing.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
With the ball.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Patrick Mahomes is so interesting. You know, I watched a
bunch of his press conference from this week where he's
talking about performance, and so many players when they talk,
they sound like automatons right, like they're trying to answer
so carefully. Patrick Mahomes didn't say anything revelatory when he
(09:57):
was speaking, but he has a way of speaking in
sort of his tone of voice and his rhythm and
his cadence that makes it sound like he's telling you
something natural and human that is revealing about a quarterback
he talked about forget about he hasn't been happy with
his performance, and not talking about stats, but where he's
putting the ball or where he's not putting the ball,
(10:17):
how he's finding people, how he's running the team, things
like that, all things that we are naturally seeing. But
the way he says it, I don't know if you
ever watched this or even sort of thought about this,
but he says it in a way that it's just
so natural and easy. And maybe this is because he's
had so many years of doing great. He has so
much confidence. He can say I'm not playing at my
(10:39):
best right now and not feel like he's going to
have to be defensive about it, but I find the
way he communicates to be fascinating.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
No, he's playing bad and he's three and oh it's
absolutely terrifying as a.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
Fan of any team in this league.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
By the way, yeah, yeah, speaking of bad. My exac
decision this week is a game you just referred to
the Chicago Bears. I think we'll get him at two
and a half in the contest. They're now at three.
While those guys have been coming in on this team,
they love them. So you know, last night I was
(11:14):
I was in New York and I had dinner with
my buddy Matt. Everyone knows Matt Matt. I was explaining
to Matt, as an investor with me in our betting
opportunities this year, that I was going with the Bears
this week, and obviously like Matt and I were going
(11:37):
to Bears games together. In nineteen eighty five, his parents
have season tickets. We went to every home game for
the Bears. We went to every playoff game together. I
went instead of his sister. We have sweated the Bears.
He went with me to the Bears Super Bowl in
two thousand and six, like three weeks after his third
kid was born. He left home and went to that
(11:59):
Bear Super Bowl with me. Like, we have been through
wars with this team.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
How many of you guys watched Ferris Beeler's day off together?
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Oh my god, so you know talk about the talk
about my life story? Right, was literally shot in the
ravine at the house in the ravine across from me. Like,
it's crazy, right, it's Cam's dad's house.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
I've always wondered that is that Is that actually near Chicago.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
That's in Highland Park. Oh shit, that's that's the house
I'm talking about. It's like, right, it's like it's like
behind my house, the glass Well, I don't remember. I
haven't even lived there in a long time. But here's
my point. I went through all the reasons of why
I was betting the Bears, why we as investors were
investing in the Bears, why are we well he at
(12:45):
the end of it, he looked at me and said,
listen everything. He I'm like, the five minutes at the
end of the game for the Rams, they were so lucky,
everything went right, they only had a five percent chance
of winning. Everything went wrong for the Bears, the whole
deep dive. And then he looked at me. He goes,
So we're going to bet on ebra Flus and Williams
(13:08):
against McVeigh and Stafford. Yeah, and I said, yes, yes
we are. And if we need to do a Capitol
call at some point in mid season because of calls
like this, I'm gonna be okay with it.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
Yeah, I would say.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
The only fear is is are we walking into it
again with the Is this like the Titans last week?
We're taking the lesser coach, the lesser QB against you know,
a matchup that we think is good. Like I totally agree, Like,
to me, this is really a bet on this Barrius defense,
Like this is a perfect matchup for you guys being
able to attack this Rams team. But yeah, it's tough
(13:46):
to get there, especially because the numbers up.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
To minus three now.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
So it's like, man, well I think in the contest
it'll be a two and a half. It's not going
to be a three and a half because this number
is at minus three and it's going to go back
down to two and a half. Would you see it
that way?
Speaker 3 (13:59):
I don't know, because, like you just said, like every
profession I talked to, for the most part, is on
this Bear side.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
They like this Bear side.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
They like the value here and it's you know, just
what we talked about, like a couple of little mistakes
here and there, they can fix it. They're a pretty
damn good team. I think one of the first things
they're trying to do is, you know, move away from
Swift where it's like, at the end of the day,
it's theo Lion's the problem. I don't know if Swift's
the biggest problem. His dance in the backfield's not helping.
But it's like, okay, if that's the one move they're
(14:28):
going to try to make this week, and maybe that
will work out for us.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
But they can't have Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Throwing fifty times, even though against his Rams team that
wouldn't be the worst thing, right, that's how you attack
this team. It's like they want that though, because eventually
he'll make a mistake and they'll capitalize on it. If
he turns them all over, that's what's going to keep
hurting this team. So this this is a tough game
to me. You're right, if it's two and a half,
it is very tempting to put into our contest because
it's a good number against a Rams team that you
(14:57):
just said it like that was their perfect game last week.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I just can't see them having back to back weeks
that way.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
There has never been a player in the NFL who
gets three yards faster than DeAndre Swift. Every time he
gets the ball, he's going so fast it looks like
he's going to gain fifty yards in a play. Three
yards later he gets tackled and it's a useless play.
Agree with me, right, because you were an Eagles fan,
like you've seen it. The guy shifty, he dances, it
(15:25):
looks like it's going to be an exciting play. He
gets three yards.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
It's It's also like, I don't I'll never get why
you guys signed them. I felt like you already had
a good backfield. It never made sense, and now you
think back, it's like it's twenty four million. It's just
it is a weird, weird move for the Bears to
get him. So I agree with that he dances way
too much.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
Well, listen, the only other thing I like about this is,
you know Chris Raybon his last seven bets last weekend,
he went seven to oher. I listened to the Action
Pod with Raymon and Stuckey in their Sunday six pack.
Raybon had the Bears, So that gives me a little
bit of hope, a little bit of hope. Teams coming
(16:05):
off a fourteen point plus comeback forty percent against the
spread in the next game. This is the ultimate by
low Cell. High go Bears, Hungry Bears are violent Bears.
New Orleans at Atlanta, don't laugh at me, don't laugh
at my joy and my passion. Come on, New Orleans
(16:28):
at Atlanta. It's two and a half. Look it was
at one and a half. You liked Atlanta. This is
to me, it is like the Eagles in Bucks game.
Though there's so many injuries on the Falcons offensive line,
like Drew Dolman is out, he's on IR and he
is the best player at his position in the NFL. Arguably,
(16:49):
Kaylen McGarry day to day did not practice on Wednesday.
Home Division faves forty five percent against the spreads in
twenty sixteen.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
I told you the line was bad. You were you
couldn't get there. You thought the line should move more
because these old line around. I told you I moved
it by half a point, made it two and a half.
It's now two and a half. So yeah, I'm with you.
It's like, I really love this line. I still love it,
but I know it's gonna be harder to get you there.
But I wish you had been at one and a half.
It feels pretty good to be holding a one and
a half ticket in this matchup. It's like, it feels
(17:20):
like this this number is gonna matter in this one.
It's just gonna be a close, ugly game. Went through
Evans trends there. Car tends to struggle in these kind
of matchups against Atlanta on the road, so another nice
spot for Atlanta trend wise as well. I still think
that the Saints are a little overrated. I just think
the number says that. It's like I told you, if
if there was no injury to this Falcons team, I
(17:42):
probably have this number at three three and a.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Half, all right.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
I did move to two and a half out of
respect to the injuries to have upfront. But it's like,
at what point do we come back on the other side.
It's just and it's Kirk Cousins at one pm, right.
We always joked like this is when you want to
bet Kirk Cousins at one pm these type of games.
So I get your hesitation though it's like it's it's
a big deal. But on the flip side, the Saints
(18:07):
they lost their all pro center as well, and like
we saw, they could not run the ball. We'll see
if Kamar practices. He didn't practice this week yet either, Like, so, okay,
take some hills out if Kamar is banged up. Now
you're taking away the run game, which is the only
reason the Saints were as good.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
As they've looked these past three weeks.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
You know, it all starts adding up where it's like,
how do you not take Atlanta here? So just something
to keep your eye on. If if they do have
a bunch of injuries to this backfield for this stats team,
it's just another reason for you to want to take Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Look, it's going to be interesting, right we're trying to
get five for the contest. We don't love putting in
that many favorites, and I feel like there's probably three
or four favorites that we are both going Between the
two of us, We're going to have strong opinions on
this week three.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
Though, like I would say, normally you're right, but on
certain weeks, yeah, like you gotta take someone sometimes you
got to take these little favorites, you know.
Speaker 1 (19:03):
Take the number that's in front of you.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
We have ugly dogs. I mean, fuck man, we're about
to go through it. We have like three just ugly dogs.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
So the mirror image here in terms of the spread
and the side that we like Minnesota at Green Bay.
This one's been bouncing around. It was at two and
a half, it touched three, it's back down to two
and a half. I think it might get back to
three at least that's what the juice is indicating you
liked Minnesota in this game. I think I've come around
(19:32):
to it.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Well we bet I don't know if you bet it,
but I bet green Bay minus two on Sunday and
now I've come back and I have bet the three
in Minnesota. But the pros actually love green Bay here,
and I'm just I just don't agree where It's like,
I feel like the advantage right goes to the Vikings.
With Jordan Love coming off as injury, it's like.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Is he rushing back?
Speaker 3 (19:54):
You know, I'll send you the clip or maybe the
film of it, but it's like Jordan Love has done
well against Brian Floores in this defense, like he knows
how to attack it same with the floor, and.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
You know that that might.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Be the reason why there's so much professional money coming
on Green Bay. So this is a game where I
have other dogs I like more than the Vikings. Maybe
I'll sit this one out. Just how to respect all
these different groups coming in so heavy on the screen
Bay eight team. But I think me and on the
same page where it's like, I trust this Vikings defense
against Love and the Vikings offense is just on another
(20:29):
level right now. So yeah, this is definitely an interesting line.
The trends haven't put out though they're not. They don't
favor these three and oh teams that are dogs this.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
Week, right But this is where it gets tricky. The
trends do favor the road dogs in these division games
by a wide margin, right right right, the home dog,
the home favorites, the short home favorites three points or
less forty five percent against the spread the past twenty years.
Home Division phase overall forty five percent against the spread
(21:00):
since twenty sixteen. So the Vikings are on the right
side of that trend. They're on the wrong side of
the undefeated trend. So then we got to take it
down to the base level of the teams in the personnel,
and I'm kind of with you. The Vikings defense. It's
not like Seattle's defense where they've beaten up on Bo
Nicks and Jacoby Brissett and a couple of high school
(21:22):
kids playing for Miami. They confused Rock Purty, they confused CJ. Stroud,
like two of the better quarterbacks by the way, against
the Blitz, two of the quarterbacks who thrive against the Blitz.
They were doing so much mixing and matching with their defense.
They made those quarterbacks look bad and that's why they
lost those games. Vikings defense is number one in DVA
(21:46):
started the season with five sacks and three straight games,
first time since ninety one. Like, this defense really good,
and they're going against a quarterback who may be rushing
back from a pretty bad injury. So I'm less. I'm
actually more around to it, I think than you are
at this point, certainly than you were than I was
on Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (22:07):
Yeah, it's just once again, I just all the professional
money come in.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
I have to respect it. These guys know what they're doing.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Respect respect. Well, here's one we can agree on, please,
and by the way, we do need to go into
the foxhole. So it's very possible we could go into
the Foxhall with Minnesota. No, okay, that's a hard noe,
hard pass from very hard pass. Simon. That was like
(22:37):
a disgusted, don't talk to me past all right. Pittsburgh
at Indianapolis, Simon says, when it was two, it's down
to one and a half. Moved almost immediately when you
made the announcement that it was Simon says, basically one
and a half everywhere. Look, I think the Steelers defense
(22:59):
is mitigated by the Colts top ranked, top ranked, past
blocking o line. The Steamers have a terrible offense. I
don't think it has an advantage over the cult middling defense. Yeah,
this is one of the bigger luck ranking games this
week with India as the unlucky team. It's in the
contest at one and a half. Say your piece, we
(23:25):
love it.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
The fear is, I'll say with the pushback is when
I talked to other pros what their hesitation is, because
this is this is a pros versus jos. The pros
absolutely love this Colts team. The public cannot get enough
of this Pittsburgh team. Like I was in Atlantic City
yesterday with the three different sports books it's each guy.
I was like, who is the most money coming in on?
Right now? It's always going to be the Eagle, especially
(23:47):
in Atlantic City. It's where it's proximity. Is number two
without a doubt. Was Pittsburgh, Like just you can't stop
get enough money on Pittsburgh. So right now you're saying
it's four to one money right now on Pittsburgh. Compared
it to this Colts team, So very telling because I
joke with them, I go, yeah, why don't you go
back up to two then? And he just gave me
a side I look of like, we don't need to.
We like this spot. So that gave me some confidence here.
(24:10):
I think me and you are only real hesitation. Here
is Anthony Richardson, like this guy is gonna burn us
on one.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Or two plays.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
Me and you know that when we bet, Yes, it's
it's just part of the deal here, especially when he's
going against you know, a top to top three defense
in this league. It's it's gonna happen. But I think
it nailed it. Like this, this old line is gonna
be the difference to me in this game. They're gonna
ball control with Jonathan Taylor. I believe you had over
one hundred yards two touchdowns last week against the Bears.
(24:37):
It's the same scenario here where it's like, Okay, the Bears,
the greatest strength they had was they're passing rush and
their pass attack and the secondary. Same thing to go
with this Pittsburgh team. It's like they they dominate teams
that they had the team when teams have to pass
against them. When you when you can run the ball,
control the clock, that's when they struggle.
Speaker 2 (24:56):
Right.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
So this, this Colts team, this is a they need
to get right spot. They just have not put it
together a complete game, even though it looked like they
did against that Bears team. That was just a really
sloppy game overall. So this, this to me, is a
nice spot historically Anthony richterest in his young career when
he faces really good defense as he performs really well
against them. So hopefully that trend continues here. Chat, it's
(25:19):
just really about trust the number as well, like I have.
The Colt is a small favorite in this matchup. You know,
I'm getting two points of value compared to my model
against a Pittsburgh team that we talked about. Eventually it's
going to go the other way, right, justin field. Isn't
this squeaky clean, never turn the ball over kind of guy.
He eventually has major mistakes. He just been very blessed
(25:40):
has not been put in those situations at all because
they've been playing with these leads. So yeah, I feel
like eventually it's going to catch up to him. We
would get some good value on a number. Now we're
getting it right. They're three to zero against the spread.
Three oh straight up this year, Pittsburgh. Eventually it's going
to run out. I feel like it does.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
Here, terrible, terrible spot from Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as
a road favorite. We know he obviously won this year
as a road favorite, but in his career, Mike Tomlin
is a road favorite, is as bad as he is
good as an underdog. So this is a spot where
do you want to fade Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
(26:18):
All Right, we know that one's getting in Washington, Arizona.
Arizona's a three and a half point favorite. This line
is held firm. I know, I'm really surprised because it
still feels to me like we are getting the Cardinals
at a really good time, Like their offense is improving.
(26:40):
Their defense is improving again. It's probably a by low
Sell high spot, maybe the most obvious by low Sell
high on the board because of Washington and what they did.
I feel I just got the sense just looking at
your face this second and the way you said that's true,
(27:02):
that you were wavering on this.
Speaker 3 (27:04):
I'm not. I bet it.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
The wavering is more just. I don't get why there's.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
So many professionals go on the other side taking this
Commanders team where it just feels like the obvious trap
where it's like this line hasn't moved too much in
your opinion, I thought it moved too much. And a
lot of guys are like, no, I think this is
where it should be in this type of matchup. And
it's like, man, I get Daniel's did look amazing, Like
we've never seen anything like that. This kid, you know,
(27:30):
one week he can't find the end zone, right, they
were driving at will against the Giants, couldn't find the
red zone. He follows it up where he couldn't miss
everything he did turn into a touchdown. So it's like
me and you have to ride those extremes here.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
We don't know what kind of get kid. We're getting here.
Speaker 3 (27:46):
But when I know one thing, I know what I'm
going to get on the Cardinals side is I like
the way they're set up right now, and I think
they're the way they are built is the same way
the Bucks were built. Against this team, it's like they
can ball control and have guys on the outside that
can eat this Commander's team. And defensively they have guys
that can get stops for them. Now their best de
tackle is probably gone for the season this Arizona team,
(28:09):
but they are getting an offensive lineman back this week,
so you know, not total cancel out.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
It's a big deal for their defense.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
But you know, this is a it's a young team
that they lost the veteran on the defensive front. But
you know this this number is just a tricky one
where it's like, I really like Arizona. I feel like
I'm missing something here and I don't know what that is,
because to me, this is.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Touch a letdown spot.
Speaker 3 (28:32):
Especially Holy shit, man, can can Jane Daniels gonna any
more smoke one up his ass?
Speaker 2 (28:36):
This week? It's been ridiculous where yeah it's well.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
Deserved, but these conversations of these guys taking the victory
laps of being like, see, I told you should have
went one over Williams. It's like Jesus christ Man, these
people are the fucking worst.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
These are the same people.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
That were touting Bryce Young to be the number one
pick for six months.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
They just they're no different.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
So I don't think this is at all comparable to
Bryce Young CJ from last year.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
The gap between Caleb.
Speaker 3 (29:01):
And Jaden Daniels wasn't that huge, but when you factor
in age, it was a big deal. It's like, why
would you take a guy who's two three years older
than Caleb Williams. It just didn't make sense when they're
They're playing style is not that much different. So yeah,
for this matchup, Chad, you know, I get the hesitation,
the fear that I have right now with this Arizona
(29:22):
team because something just seems off for this number. But
at three and a half, we think Arizona is a
good team. We think they're a playoff team. If they are,
this is a game they should smack the hell out
of US Washington team after that type of game. So
this this is the only Again, the only fear here
is we're walking to a team and that's just on
our role in Washington. Right, everything is just clicking for them.
(29:42):
But this is historically through Evans trends. This is a
perfect spot to fade the Jaden Daniels.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Look, the line has moved two points. You're getting a
little bit of blowback from wise guys. Are we in
the foxhill right now?
Speaker 2 (29:57):
I'll do it. I love it right in the fox
hill with.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
The Arizona Cardinals. Let's clid down into the foxhole. No
better team to be in the foxhole with than the
Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray. Guess what time it is, Simon,
It is time four hour Big Ball, Better the Week
(30:24):
presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support. Great games start with great underwear
and Tommy John, as you know, makes the greatest. And
it's one of the reasons why we are undefeated so
far this year with our big Balls Beat of the Week,
(30:45):
and it's why we are so comfortable going with the
depleted run down Los Angeles Chargers lost seven and a
half as home underdogs against the King's City Chiefs. Simon,
we said it before we came on the air, but
we were discussing what we were going to do. I said,
(31:07):
I think we got to go with the Chargers. You
blanched everything about our philosophy, our history, our passion for betting,
says we take the Chargers. Here, are you my betting buddy?
Speaker 3 (31:23):
I am no. I love the Chargers. My whole hesitation.
I think you know it is this was eight and
a half. We both bet it. I don't know if
you bet at eight and a half or got it eight,
but it was like it was at a really nice number.
Now it's down to seven and a half. I'll bet
it again with you, like I love this number.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
I love this spot.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
I'll put in the contest, and it's really about my
homes and this Chiefs team. I feel like there's still
getting way too much respect. On the flip side, this
Chargers team is banged up as they are, they can
kind of keep this game close, right We talked about
that there's ways.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
For them to stay in this game and keep this
one close.
Speaker 3 (31:52):
So it's obviously we're both hoping it's Herbert. I feel
way more confident in taking this number, but I think
the number saying that Herbert's not going to play. But
you know, I'm looking at the live just since you
mentioned this game. This number is already moving.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
To seven a couple books.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
So I would say most of the guys listening to
the show love this game as well. Hopefully you guys
are all right, because I like it too.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
I just don't have this.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
You have way more confident, I would say, in Tyler
Heineke and this John Harball team than I do. So
I'm definitely kind of trusting Mahomes isn't right yet and
this Chargers defense will to get some takeaways. So let's
let's take the ugly seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
I'm with you, brother, an ugly seven and a half
where joe al Rashaun Slater likely out, Joey Bosa did not,
jo might be out to Yeah, Justin Herbert was limited.
This is a luck game favoring the Chargers. The Chiefs
have grated out as the luckiest team so far in
(32:51):
our luck rankings, Simon. But I'm not worried because if
Taylor Heineke goes backup QB's fifty five percent against spread
since twenty twenty one, dogs have six plus points or
more eight and five straight up, twelve and one against the
spread through the first three weeks. I am not not afraid.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
Oh man, I didn't know Joe All was out to me.
That is a big that's a bigger deal because now
you're down both tackles. Shit, man, I mean this takes.
This takes some big balls jab making this bet.
Speaker 1 (33:23):
We got big balls, Simon. Our big balls are supported
by the underwear that we put on every Sunday. It's
the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It is the
second skin that has given me the confidence to make
bets like the Los Angeles Chargers without anyone on their
(33:47):
offensive line. They are giving free runs to the Kansas
City Chiefs defensive line, and we're still going with them.
When you're truly comfortable, you can be better. If you
love Simon and I, if you love this show, you
love Tommy John, gey five percent off your first order
right now at Tommy john dot com slash favorites. Save
twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites.
(34:09):
I feel like I'm going to have a hard time
getting you to get the charters into the contest. We
got a couple more games here Cleveland at the Raiders.
You've been all over this. It was at minus one.
It actually moved from Cleveland minus one to Raiders minus one.
Now at Raiders minus two, what do you have this
power rader at Do you still have an edge in
this game? Are we worried? Well, let's let's answer that.
Speaker 3 (34:30):
Yeah, I got it minus three, So yeah, I still
show value here. You know, I I did have it
at minus three and a half. Idjusted it down a
little bit just because I think Minshew is just struggling
a little bit and they don't really have a run
game right now. But you know, my view of this
chat is just Watson has historically been horrible. If if
(34:53):
you look at I think a Browns fan did a
chart and it was basical of all the quarterbacks they've
had since I think two thousand and one. If you
go look at that list of these names of these quarterbacks, Jack,
you'd be amazed at.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
Some of these names.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
You know, who's number two worst quarterback in that entire
span to Shaun Watson. So it's it's pretty telling how
bad they've been. You know, it's not gonna get any better.
We talked about they've already there lost another starter from
their offensive line, Miles Garrett. I mean, what by week
eight is probably gonna be shut down getting surgery because
(35:25):
this team is just is not gonna have a winning record.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
It's just a nice spot to attack this team. It's just.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
I just can't get over how bad they are. And
then you factor in like all these trends evn't had
about the Browns traveling from East Coast to West coast.
Historically they've been terrible, you know, the Raiders as well.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Raiders at home.
Speaker 3 (35:45):
I know they just got wildped and embarrassed by the Panthers,
but they usually play well at home, you know. So
I'm just I'm just thinking about the Max Crosby Wilkens
matchup with this O line. It's just how does Watson
beat us this? They're gonna fold them up. Man, He's
gonna be a lawn share in this game. It's just
it's just such a great match of the Raiders team.
That's why you've seen this number move and I'll just
(36:06):
see the action app real quick. Yeah, it's I mean,
it's professionals. Sixty five percent of the money right now
is coming in on the Vikings, even though fifty percent
of the tickets right now is on the Browns.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
So the Raiders.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Yeah, so it's I don't know, I do really like
the Raiders. I know it's gonna be hard to convince
you on this one, just because there are so many
questions about this team, but I'll send you some of
these trends Evan has about this Browns team. Man, but man,
this is just such a fade spot. They won't be
a team I'd back at all the Browns until they
do make a switch a quarterback position. You know, they're
(36:42):
one win this year there one cover was against the
Jaguars team that just looks lost. So yeah, there's a
lot of reasons to like this Vegas team to bounce
back here in a spot they usually win.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
So here's the one thing I'll say about historical team trends.
I don't care about him. Like, to me, they're not
indicative of anything because these teams change so much year
to year. Circumstances change. I don't care about historical team trends.
I think what's interesting to me is how if we're
(37:16):
going to say Jalen Hurts is having turnover issues and
one season is circumstantial, in the beginning of a second
season becomes habitual, Deshaun Watson has reached post habitual just
bad stages, right, like we tried making so many excuses
for this guy over the last two plus years and
(37:40):
it's just not there. And I think that's why everyone
is starting to feel more comfortable betting against him. Like
people are always in the back of their mind worried
that he's going to pop off, right, that he's going
to have that game, that he's going to find the magic,
that he's going to be who he was, to paraphrase
Rick Patino, Bernie Kosar is not walking through that door.
(38:03):
Like he's just not a very good quarterback right now.
So I'm with you. I'm with you, and I'm super
excited to now have the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Bears
as short favorites in the contest this week. Or should
we go with Baltimore minus two and a half, which
(38:26):
feels like something that we want to do and Faden
an undefeated MVP leading team for a underperforming team that
feels a little schizophrenic whose defense has not performed well
that almost gave up a twenty five point lead or
(38:48):
whatever it was, twenty two point lead to the Dallas Cowboys.
Let's go Ravens.
Speaker 2 (38:54):
I know, I think we both know this.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
We're supposed to do but it is horribly terrifying, especially
when you just think about this Ravens team right now.
They've been dominant against the run, like I think their
second best defense EPA per play against the run. But
it's because team's gonna pass it against him. I mean,
that's that's been really that's been a problem this year,
(39:17):
Like teams are being able to pass the ball through the.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
Air against this Ravens team. Now we have the.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
MVP coming in with you know, the bunch of nameless joes,
but he's making it work. Like when you don't know
who he's gonna go to, who's gonna have to force
the ball to, it's terrifying. I mean you if you,
I don't know, if you rewatch that Jaguars game, it
might be two too painful. But I loved it, even
though I lost money obviously. It's just like he was
so good. He's so good, like every ball was right
(39:46):
where it need to be, is protecting his receivers, hitting
guys in stride. I get the hesitation for everybody for
this one, but me and Chad always played these kind
of spots. Teams aren't going sixteen seventeen and oh they're
gonna lose game.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
They're gonna drop games.
Speaker 3 (40:01):
And you know, maybe he's too hot and we're a
little too early stepping in front of him here. But
historically this is the number we do play. And I
mean we even talked about the action app right now,
all the bets, all the money, believe it's eighty percent,
it's all in this Bills team.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
This number hasn't budged, Chad, It's not budged.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
So sports books know this is going to be the
number one teas team this week. Right, Why would you.
Speaker 2 (40:27):
Not take the Bills up day and a half? Fuck
I did it.
Speaker 3 (40:31):
I don't know, I don't I can't remember the last
time Josh Allen lost by more than a touchdown. I
just I've been thinking about it before we came on here.
I was trying to think of that game, and it's like,
I really can't do it. This guy just always plays
it tough. So we're basically betting on last possession. Our
gual Lamar's got it. He drives a field and our
eighty year old kicker, Justin Tucker kicks one through for us.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
We cover this number, like, because.
Speaker 1 (40:54):
This is technique is coming back to us.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
This just feels like such a sharp number, Like there's
a reason they're holding it here at two and a half.
And Chad knows as well, like the same reason I
wanted to bet Lamar last week, you got him under three.
If you have him under a field goal, He's twenty
three and seven against the spread in his career.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
So I just.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
Blindly got to keep betting this spot. I mean, it's
just made me so much money over the years, and
I just keep doing it. So, yeah, have all the
ones you've talked about, Like I could see us leaving
this one out just because this one really does make
me sick to my stomach, Like we even talk about
another game that makes me sick to my stomach. But
I feel more confident betting it just because there's reasons
to bet it. Where we're literally our biggest reason for
(41:35):
betting this right now is just the Bills have played.
I'd say, the Cardinals are all right, Miami's dog shit,
and the Jaguars don't look any better.
Speaker 2 (41:44):
So it's like we're.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
Kind of betting on is he really this good or
is he just been beating.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
Up on bad defenses. That's kind of what this bet.
Speaker 3 (41:51):
Is right now. So it sounds crazy, We're saying to
Josh Allam, and prove it to us again. But that's
what it feels we're doing here, Chad taking the Raims.
It's like, oh, Okay, you've done great, You've looked great
to start this year. Now play a really good team
that's one and two and desperate at home in prime
time on Sunday night, Like this is going to be
a great test for him in this Bills team. So yeah,
(42:12):
the more we talk about now, I'm starting to feel
a little better about this Ravens team.
Speaker 1 (42:15):
Takes nothing but blind faith to convince any better. All
they got to do is talk about it for him,
be like, of course, I'm betting this game. You went
from sick to my stomach to feeling confident.
Speaker 2 (42:27):
He's not confident. I would not take Josh Allen.
Speaker 3 (42:30):
I'm telling you, if you watch that Jaguars game, he
looks like a man on a mission, right.
Speaker 1 (42:33):
He was amazing. And that is the one thing that
worries me is this Ravens defense is not great up
the middle right now, And like the Jaguars were parting
the sea for Josh Allen and he would just do
whatever he wanted to do. He was toying with them.
Speaker 2 (42:49):
Kyle Hamilton disappointed.
Speaker 3 (42:51):
I mean, have you heard his name at all this season?
Speaker 1 (42:53):
And like last year, we loved him. He was everywhere,
He was everywhere.
Speaker 3 (42:57):
So that's that's been the biggest difference. Like whatever you
know Mike McDonald took with him to Seattle. They have
not figured that out in Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (43:06):
Well, speaking of Mike McDonald, the one thing I will
say before we get to him and soon.
Speaker 2 (43:12):
I feel like you're passing on the game we talked
about and we love. I am Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (43:21):
Well I thought we weren't going to talk about it
because well because now the numbers down to six and
so like the value.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Six and a half's out there.
Speaker 3 (43:29):
I do want before we move too fast, I want
fans to know, like two games I think we're not
going to talk about I love Jaguars. You can Chad
loves it too. You can get six and a half
out there. I still like the Panthers. I don't know
if you're as luke warm or warm on the Panthers,
but you can still get a plus four four and
a half of a couple of books on this Panthers team.
Just before we totally move off of them.
Speaker 1 (43:48):
I'm not. I like the Jags. I think it's a
good spot for them. I'm not convinced on the Panthers
right now because I think it's a It's the reverse
of Bilos high. I think you're buying high on the
Panthers and I think you're selling low.
Speaker 3 (44:04):
I'm telling you, the only professionals betting the Panthers still
the public fucking hates them. Everyone is betting the Bengals.
That's how it is.
Speaker 4 (44:12):
Man.
Speaker 3 (44:12):
They just who you're gonna bet on, Joe Burrow or
Andy Dalton. They're pretty simple creatures that way. They go, oh,
I guess I'll go Andy Dalton. I guess I'll go
Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1 (44:20):
Then it's like, all right, yeah, of course that's what
the public is gonna do. I'm just I'm skeptical that
the Panthers can do it again, you know what I mean. Like,
we've lost so much money on this team. We did
make we did make some of it back last week,
(44:40):
but it was the exact right spot to make it back,
and this feels like the exact right spot to lose
it again. Coming home a ton of confidence, thinking oh
my god, we're actually a good team we just needed
a capable quarterback and they are going against a team
that is like needs a win for their longs. They
(45:05):
need to win this game. Their season is over if
they don't win this game.
Speaker 3 (45:10):
Yeah, And I get I get where you're coming from,
and I think people think the same way.
Speaker 2 (45:14):
But it's just.
Speaker 3 (45:16):
I don't think it matters because Joe Burrow, as great
as he is, it's like they don't have the pieces defensively.
And I saw Chase hasn't practiced this week. He might
have a bad shoulder, so he might he might miss
this game, which is another big deal to this this
Bengo's offense. So I get your hesitation. Man, I don't
feel great about it either. I just think Andy Dalton's
given them such a spark. I think this is a
(45:36):
totally different team. This is the team I thought they
were going to be coming into this season, where it's
like they have offensive weapons that can beat you with
and their defense is bad, but they're young and there's
ways they can attack you defensively. So you're right, like,
if you want to wait and see them doing another game,
I totally get it, because it's like I'm not standing
on my soapbox here saying this needs to be one
(45:57):
of our five. I just people need to know I
did bet this pan their side, and you know I
would take it down at the three and a half.
Speaker 1 (46:04):
Mike McDonald is getting you know, the he's a brilliant
young coach. Oh my god, what a culture changer he
is treatment around the media this week. It's what happens
when you've got the number one rated defense because you've
beaten up on Bnick's Jacoby Brissett and Skyler Thompson, and
(46:25):
this line has moved aggressively. It's down to three and
a half. Visiting the Detroit Lions on Monday night. You
like Seattle, I think Seattle is not as good as
it's played. You think they are as good. I think
Detroit is better than they have played. And getting a
team at its exact peak right now, Yeah, because.
Speaker 2 (46:49):
I mean we joke all the time.
Speaker 3 (46:50):
I mean about the same thing we just said of
the Bills, right, it's like, well, who they really beat?
Speaker 2 (46:55):
They still beat them?
Speaker 3 (46:56):
Like you can't say the same for Cincinnati Bengals, who
lost to New England at home and lost Commanders at home. Right,
so city early in the year here, teams actually can
show up, especially with a new coach. I felt like
the Seattle was the professional side. Clearly it was right.
We've gone for four and a half now down to
three and a half, so it's like, okay, at least
I'm on the same side as the pros. That makes
me feel a little better. But you're right, like, as
(47:17):
the number moved too much, now, would I touch it? No,
it's down to three and a half now, I'm happy
to sit on my four four and a half ticket
and let this one play out here. But they're just
I told you my main questions right now is about golf.
He's not looked right through three weeks. They should be
dominating these teams. They've played like their defense is so
much better this year than they have been in previous seasons.
(47:40):
I mean it's just glaring and they're running attack where
it's like you guys can just lean on these teams,
bullyball them like you have the guys up front, and
it just has not worked. So I won't make this
one number five, right because the numbers moved too much,
and I don't think you're anywhere close to my confidence
on the Seattle team.
Speaker 2 (47:58):
But yeah, this is uh.
Speaker 3 (48:00):
I don't know if if the Lions lost this game,
I'd have to totally reevaluate them, because right now I
have them power rate is the number two best team
in the NFC, And it's like, if they drop this one, man,
it's just gonna be such a bad look.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
So yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (48:13):
It's like I feel I feel a little bit hesitation
bet in this one as well.
Speaker 1 (48:17):
I don't know who our five are right now, but
I do you know our five is loaded with a
lot of favorites. We're gonna put Indy in there, obviously.
I feel strongly we're going to put Chicago in there.
I think it's like, I.
Speaker 2 (48:32):
Mean, you want to get Chargers in, right, are big balls?
Speaker 1 (48:34):
I mean we've got to get the Chargers in. Yeah,
But like after that, Arizona Love Arizona.
Speaker 3 (48:41):
Yeah, Like I love love Tampa. I know you're not
there on Tampa.
Speaker 1 (48:45):
If you love Tampa, I could get there on Tampa,
like I you know, I don't.
Speaker 3 (48:49):
I'm if Kamar is out, could I get you there
in Atlanta come Sunday? Probably? I think that's a big bill, right.
Speaker 1 (48:57):
I think we have to wait until Sunday to really
sort of nail it. I don't think.
Speaker 3 (49:01):
We're definitely gonna lock in our five though, So if
people want to see him right, they can hop on
and click on us and see who we picked right
for our five. But yeah, I would say there's like
seven teams right now. Feels like we get there, and
even I know you're not loving the Jaguars, but if
they're six and a half in contest, it's kind of
tempting with all the trends that point to this team
(49:21):
where historically we've just seen Houston, they don't they don't
do well as these big favorites.
Speaker 2 (49:26):
And you know, not saying the book is that on CJ.
Speaker 3 (49:30):
But he is really bad against man coverage and he's
great against zone. You know who runs the most man
coverage in all football, the shitty ass Jaguars team. So
it's like there are some reasons too like this Jaguars
team outside of just the trends. But I'm with you,
like this week we're heavy on the Chalcombe favorites.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
All right, Let's get to our parlay section here, turning
good weekends into great weekends. It's to for the money
line parlay underdog money line parlay from bet three six
five each week we are giving out a two team
money line dog parlay and Bet three six five boosts
(50:12):
the odds and highlights it on that site all weekend
long under both game pages. Our week four boosted underdog
money line parlay we are going with the Indianapolis Colts
and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Find the boosts under either
(50:34):
the Colts or Bucks game pages on bet three six five. Remember,
both games are eligible for bet three six five's early
payoff promo, where your money line pick gets marked as
a win if they take a seventeen point lead even
if they lose. So if you want to bet this,
bet it at bet three six five. We also got
(50:55):
to do our money line underdog round robin. There will
come up heayday, Halla, lou Yo wanta pay day.
Speaker 2 (51:05):
There will come.
Speaker 3 (51:06):
Up payday some day.
Speaker 1 (51:07):
Some day.
Speaker 4 (51:09):
There will come up heayday, Hall Yo, Way will come
up payday some day.
Speaker 1 (51:16):
Here's my my suggestions. Ready, chargers, charge chargers, sick for
you are sick.
Speaker 3 (51:24):
All right, chargers, there's no I love Minnesota, Tampa Bay
love Tampa.
Speaker 1 (51:32):
I mean we gotta do Indye, gotta do Indy Panthers,
Jags love Panthers.
Speaker 2 (51:38):
And let's definitely do Jaguars, right all right?
Speaker 1 (51:41):
So who do we just say? Minnesota? Uh Indy, Tampa,
Panthers and Jags.
Speaker 3 (51:50):
Ye, look at that back to back weeks taking the
money line on this Panthers.
Speaker 1 (51:55):
Team because you're a coward and don't want to put
the Chargers in there, which is fine. Give me your
big bets right now, you know the numbers.
Speaker 3 (52:02):
It just Mahomes doesn't look doesn't lose to his division.
Speaker 2 (52:05):
He doesn't cover, but he doesn't lose to his division.
Speaker 1 (52:07):
Don't give me your excuses.
Speaker 2 (52:10):
What'd you ask me before?
Speaker 1 (52:11):
What are your biggest bets?
Speaker 2 (52:16):
I'm pretty spread out.
Speaker 3 (52:17):
I would say the cold Stuffie in one of my
bigger bets right now, Tampa, Arizona, Vegas and the Ravens.
After we get off the air, I'll probably hit the
Chargers even more because I just feel like the seven
and a half is going to disappear. Probably gonna wait
and see what the Kamara news is. Like I was
(52:38):
having invested in Atlanta one and a half. I have
not bet them at two and a half yet, but
if he is out Kamar, I'm probably gonna attack the
Atlanta line even more so. Yeah, right now, the earliest
biggest bets. We'll go Colds, Tampa, Ravens, and Vegas.
Speaker 1 (52:54):
Give me your scoot through, lad because you won last week.
You had the Ravens, I had Miami.
Speaker 3 (53:00):
What the fuck you had Miami and scoot Rolette. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (53:02):
I went with Denver and then Evan like did his
segment and Mike talked me out of it.
Speaker 2 (53:09):
Eh, you son of a bitch?
Speaker 1 (53:11):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (53:15):
Shit, Oh man, I got a double dip. I guess
I'll go with the fucking Colts.
Speaker 1 (53:21):
Oh dude, I was going to take the Colts.
Speaker 2 (53:23):
I love them.
Speaker 1 (53:25):
I know what I'm doing. You're taking the Colts. I'm
taking Arizona, Okay, but I really want the Colts. All right,
Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director
of Research, Evan Abrams for the final word.
Speaker 3 (53:38):
The last word with Evan Abrams, we're.
Speaker 4 (53:42):
Finished talking, all right, guys. Well, it's time to jink
Simon this week. So let's start with the Colts. I'm
going to keep this super simple because it really doesn't
have to be much more complicated than this. When opponents
score more than twenty points versus a Justin Fields led team,
they're twenty one and oh straight up all thirteen fields,
wins have come with opponents scoring twenty points or less,
(54:03):
with their teams averaging thirteen points per game. Richardson just
needs to put points on the board and you'll win
the bet. So hopefully that happens. Let's move on to
the next AFC team. Here, we're gonna talk about the Broncos.
Now you have to understand the process in putting these
notes together. I'm trying to predict a little bit of
who you guys are gonna like during the show. Give
a little momentum, you know, reinforcement, it's always important. So
(54:24):
we're gonna go with the Broncos here. I think we
like them against the Jets this week. But the Jets' schedule.
Jets are the only third team in the last eighty
years to play the first three games of a season
within eleven day span. Twenty eighteen Jets and the twenty
thirteen Eagles the other two teams. So the twenty four
Jets are the only teams to pose a winning record
during that three game span. But also those other two
(54:46):
teams lost by seventeen plus in Week four and both
finish the season under five hundred against the spread, So
maybe a little bit of impact there. And it's also
worth noting this is the first time Sean Payton's team
will start the season as a dog in four straight
since his rookie year in two thousand and six with
New Orleans and Peyton's teams as a dog September October
(55:08):
thirty thirteen and one against the number. So pretty good
and done pretty well this year. And now I got
to answer Simon's question from before, so this was a
quick look up. So I'm pretty sure this one's right.
But Josh Allen's last forty nine starts, he's only lost
by seven or more once Bengals in the playoffs in
twenty twenty three. Lots of losses, but by four, three, six,
(55:29):
et cetera. So pretty crazy. But this is why you
might want to look at Baltimore. So it is a
tough spot for the Bills. Third straight night game and
listed as a road dog, only the third team in
that spot in the last decade. Those teams zero win
three straight up. But more importantly, they're allowing thirty five
points per game, so hopefully Baltimore and Romark can get
(55:51):
the offense going. And also just a unique spot all around,
Bills are three and oh, Ravens are one and two,
and the Bills are underdogs in this game a three
and oh team. There's only been a dog to a
team with one win or less six times last twenty years.
They're one in five straight up, losing by almost ten
points per game. So signs point to Baltimore. Both see
how it goes, guys.
Speaker 2 (56:12):
It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save.
Speaker 1 (56:15):
You all of a sudden. I think your reason for
your quick turn there from six to your stomach from
feeling confident. Now we feel even more confident. What I'm
not gonna do is put Baltimore in as my scoo
trewe lad. I'm gonna stick with Arizona, even though I've
never felt better about the Baltimore Ravens. As a reminder,
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
(56:35):
and this just in new Bet three six five customers
now get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit
ten dollars in place a bet for five dollars to
get two one hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet
(56:57):
three six five must be twenty one. We're older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply, Simon or I. We'll return
(57:18):
with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action
Network YouTube page on Sunday night, seven point thirty pm Eastern.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to the Action Network
YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you
get your pods, rate review, subscribe, vis five stars, say
whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time,
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
(57:47):
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
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Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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