October 6, 2024 • 41 mins
After a number of wild Sunday afternoon NFL finishes, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss horrendous kickers, a strange Texans win, a deflating Rams loss and so much more. Together they recap all their picks, good and bad, and take accountability once again before Sunday Night Football kicks off in Steel City between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys. Plus, we get their early looks at NFL Week 6.
And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
Live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Mellman,
Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. This is our
Sunday Night episode in which we review the faves five
picks we put into the contest, discussed why, discuss why
(00:33):
we left some games out, preview the early lines we
already like for week six. I'm joined as always by
my co host, my companion, Mike Campadre my BFF, professional
vetter Ed Osimon.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Hi, Chad dud Dude.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
We just finished watching the Rams game, which was an
extreme cruciating beat. We'll get into it because they actually
played better than the Packers the whole game. Goddamn kickers, Kickers.
What an insane, ugly, infuriating, tense, exhausting and to all
(01:19):
three games we had in our early and late window
that we put in the contest. Don't forget we have
the Steelers minus two and a half tonight, New Orleans
plus five and a half tomorrow. In these games, there'll
been a cavalcade of bad quarterback play from quarterbacks. We
almost always can count on befuddling, idiotic play calling from coaches,
(01:45):
ultimately a one and two start in games in which
it looked like we could have gone three and zero.
We could have gone two and one. We could have
gone oh and three. It could have been one and
two with a different combination of games. We'll break it
all down. If you believe you could beat our picks
this season, be our guest, let us pay you forty
thousand dollars. Sign up four at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.
(02:11):
Catch every opposite eph catch every episode of the Favorites
live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget
to give us a like and subscribe to the Action
Network YouTube page. I am as tongue tied about these
reads as I am about what happened on the field today.
As a reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by
(02:33):
Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
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Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty
(02:56):
five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Virginia,
I'm sorry, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem, call one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
Iowa terms conditioned restrictions applied. Maybe I'm like losing it
(03:22):
right now because my brain has melted from some of
the games today. Here's a little stat we've been tracking
and talking about it in all the podcasts. How the
underdogs of six plus points are doing this season now
eleven and eight straight up sixteen two and one against
(03:44):
the spread this season, the first time since nineteen sixty
dogs of six or more are over five hundred straight
up through five weeks with the best against the spread.
When page one of those games was one of our
last ones out Today, we will get to that crazy
(04:06):
crazy day. First up, Baltimore's Cincinnati. Look, this was a
kick in the dick because the Bengals were up by
ten points three different times in the second half twenty
four to fourteen, thirty one, twenty one, thirty eight, twenty eight.
Like there was a point where Lamar Jackson bobbled a
(04:26):
snap twice, scrambled all over the field, ended up rolling right,
lofted a ball across his body to the middle of
the end zone for an Isaiah Likely touchdown to make
it thirty one to twenty eight. In my notes, I wrote,
no one can stop anyone. The next series, Jamar Chase
takes a screen, goes sixty yards for a touchdown, and
(04:48):
the Bengals are back up thirty eight twenty eight. Both
teams averaged six point eight yards per play, insane, and
we lost.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Yeah, it sucks because that was so much fun. I mean,
that's those are the best games to watch. And you're
feeling pretty good because you got the dog in a
shootout game, right and your dog is up. And honestly,
even when they were scoring all those points of the Ravens,
I was like, it's okay, Joe will keep keep getting
us back. And yeah, the one he tried to force
to Chase trying into an interception kind of flipped the
(05:22):
game because even then, at worst they were gonna get
three points and we were gonna be up six. Yeah,
and that was gonna be nice for us with our
number two and a half. It's like, okay, even if
we don't win out right here, at least we'll get
the cover. And uh no, the gambling gods had other plans.
They tried to get cue with it, and overtime they
ran I think three times or whatever it was, got
(05:43):
zero yards, put their kicker at a long kick, you know,
like you said, fumble, snap, put it down, bad kick.
You know, as soon as they missed that, we both
knew we were dead. I mean that that just sucked
all the air out the stadium. So that was just
a brutal way to start the day.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
And like, what's so frustrating about this game? Burrow is
the guy we want to have the ball. And you
would say earlier this week, you and Evan talked about
this Joe Burrow as a long shot MVP candidate if
this Bengals team could go on a run.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Still not terrible. I think he had fourty yards of
five touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
Four hundred yards five touchdowns, one costly pick, but he
was playing like the Burrow who had been playing this
way all season, only he'd been doing it in the
best possible circumstances for his team to really get back
into the year. Right now, that one in four and
that pick was excruciating. I don't blame him, because we're
(06:49):
not in it without him. You gotta blame the defense
because look in the overtime Lamar Jackson fumble, they get
the ball back, and like you said, explain this to me.
You have Joe Burrow who's thrown for four hundred yards
and five touchdowns. You have Jamar Chase who has ten
(07:11):
touchdowns before the age of twenty five of sixty plus yards,
he set a new record today, breaking Odell Beckham Junior's record.
I know everybody thinks fifty yard field goals are gimmes now,
but they're not. They're just not. So why are you
(07:31):
not even trying to gain any yards when you have
the ball on the thirty five yard line. It doesn't
make any sense to me at all. When you were
watching that, are you thinking like, oh, yeah, this is
exactly what I would do.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
No, I've said thought as you. I was just thinking
to myself Okay, get one more first down, then go
for the kicks, I mean the runs. Like if you
get one first down, then it's like you just said,
it's a forty yarder, not a fifty yarder. And what
was even like it was a fifty yard I think
it was like a fifty eight. It was something crazy
like that.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
It was fifty three field Okay.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
I just remember thinking like that's still really far. But yeah, again,
all of our bets today came down to a kicker.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yeah, and it's crazy, like Justin Tucker finally found his
range and kicked a fifty six yard field goal. It
was just excruciating. We either we either totally deserved that
win and just got you know, totally posed, or we
(08:34):
don't deserve it at all.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
It's also the best of the number, right, Like the
people at the three, the plus three, they were never
word me and you sitting there two and a half.
We were dying all game because we knew it was
gonna come down to that number.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
Well, look that I'm glad you said that, because I
do want to point out, if I'm not mistaken, Cincinnati
plus three was your Simon.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
Says, yeah, but push pushes hurt just as bad, you.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Know, and so at least a push you don't lose,
I know, and you know, we don't get that option
in the contest, so we were always on Cincy at
two and a half. So a lot of things went
the wrong way for us, but pointed a brief second.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
That was the one team we talked about switching out
for a brief second this morning, but you're.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Right, we did before.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
It was honestly stupid people, but it was in the
end it was semi sound because it was just we're
all all the games we had, that was the one
that scared me the most. All the other games I
felt comfortable with, but there was just something about this
line sitting at two and a half all week. Something
was off about it. But well luck we end of
the day. It was just bad luck.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
It was It was really bad luck. And these half
points are becoming so much more relevant this year. V
maybe this is something we look up for the Tuesday
show because haven't had a great stat He did it
unconvinced me the pregame show this morning, and we talked
to about it earlier in the week on Thursday. The
spreads right now are historically low four point two points
(10:08):
per game, right, So when a spread is that low,
it naturally means that a half point is going to
have a percentage influence that is much greater on winning
or losing than when there's a much bigger variance in
the spreads. So that half point, all of a sudden,
means the world to us, which is why we decided
(10:32):
not to take it out because we also loved Houston,
and we loved Houston at minus a half, which is
when we put it in on Friday, and by today
the line was up to one and a half, and
we didn't want to lose the one and a half
on Houston because we felt like this game could be
a little bit close. And this is another one where
(10:55):
we had a big lead. Texans were up twenty to
three in the second half and then just slowly but surely,
they let it bleed away. What were you thinking when
we were watching that game.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
That was like that that game was dead. We should
have lost that game, Yeah, CJ he whatever. Whatever. They
talked about it halftime, they came out of a game plan.
He looked totally uncomfortable, totally lost. Once Nico Collins left
that game, Yes, something shifted that offense where he just
did not feel comfortable anymore. And I mean the one
(11:33):
turner rehad the interception obviously was bad. He threw it
to a spot that his Rye receiver went to. The
other went the other way, or maybe it was the
tight end went the other way. He threw it to
the other spot. The defender was right there for the pick.
The fumble was inexcusable though. That was just like, oh
my god, in your own end. After Josh Allen had
most likely just got a concussion and somehow yes talked
(11:54):
his way out of the tent and came back out,
and I was like, okay, if they get a touchdown here,
me and you, I just thought me and you were dead.
And you know, luckily the defense held. You could see
Josh just wasn't right, like you know, he didn't didn't
come out there and looked like his old self. To
two plays that he had guys open. He didn't make
the throw. Got lucky that they took a field goal there,
(12:16):
and then you know, once again came down to a kicker.
Houston put them in the position to get the CJ
put them in the position to get the three man.
That was that was a sweat once he kicked that throw,
I was like, Okay, at least at least the right
side on that one came through, because you're right. It
was up twenty to three and Houston had the ball,
and it was just like, Okay, this was a good read,
(12:38):
good bet. Not so much. It was a sweat all
way to the end there. So yeah, never never easy,
is it.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Yeah, that's actually why I'm not so bummed about the
one in two, because like, we lost the Bengals game
that we probably should have won, but we won the
Texans game that we probably show lost only because of CJ.
(13:04):
Josh Allen was downright terrible. Nine of thirty one hundred
and thirty one yards, four point four yards per attempt,
the Bills three to fourteen on third down, and that
was even before.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
That's what I mean. That's why I don't know if
we deserve to lose that. Like they dominated Josh Allen
that game. They had two big plays that turn into touchdowns. Yes,
I mean did you watch that all that London game? Yes,
it was incredible. I think Sam Darnold might have had
ten completions for like one hundred yards like that. He
was awful with an interception and they almost won by
(13:37):
double digits. It's just it really shows this year, like
these complete teams, the teams that do have the defense
with the offense like that. You know that second half
we were dead, Like you said, CJ was awful, but
lucky for us Houston's defense, you know, they kept us
in this game.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
Well, either I was going to say, even before Josh
Allen hit the turf and the two violent hits today,
there was this guy in the Panthers, the tight end Tremble,
who looked like he just flopped. He got hit so
hard by Jakwan Brisker, flopped, dropped the ball mid air
(14:15):
like when he was falling to the ground. The Bears
recover it. It looked like he was out cold. And
then the Josh Allen hit where his head slammed into
the turf. I am shocked they let him come back
into the game because if it's not there's something fishy
about that one one hundred percent, because there has to be,
(14:38):
because he was dazed, he was out like that was
uncomfortable to look at in the replay.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
Well, the key is to be really dumb on your
cognitive test when you do it, like when you don't
have a concussion, and so your baseline's really loose, and
maybe Josh Allen knows the system, so he did the test.
I saw them give him the test on the sidelines,
and it's you know, I see it's a lot of
pressure on this doctor who doesn't work for the team,
he works for the league. But yeah, I could not
believe when he came back out there. I really couldn't,
(15:07):
because it was like everyone knows he just he got
a concussion. I mean, there's there's no way around. He
got slammed really hard on the turf, which is concrete.
But yeah, yeah, you're right, that's a question work for
this upcoming week. Maybe we'll see what the lines are
for that. But there could not be a line on
his game just because it's unknown if he'll be playing
in it.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
In the second half of that game, after going up
twenty to three, you mentioned a couple mistakes by CG.
I just want to be clear about what they were.
The Texans went they were They went up to twenty
to three, the Bills came back, cut it to twenty ten.
Texans go three and out, they give up a TD,
they're up twenty seventeen, went five and out, forced to punt.
(15:49):
CJ throws and pick at the Buffalo twenty, the Bills punt,
CJ fumbles at his own fifteen. Texans get the ball back,
they're driving close ished field goal range, cig gets called
for intentional grounding on third down knocks them out of
field goal range. But this is where we won the game,
(16:11):
and thank god for idiotic play calling. It killed us
with the Bengals and that overtime drive, but it won
us because the Bills threw three straight times out of
the back of the end zone when the Texans had
no timeouts and the game could have gone to overtime,
(16:33):
and they end up getting the punt, getting into field
goal range and kicking a fifty eight year field goal.
What the f were the Bills thinking? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (16:45):
I think they were thinking, well, they have three time outs,
so even if we run it here three times, how
much time does that take off? But because they had
those three timeouts, they were able to put themselves in
a field goal position and kick that field goal. Like
you just said, so, yeah, pretty bizarre, But again it
was I couldn't even watch it. You just det it
out looked like Josh Allen there on those three throws.
That's another reason I didn't get it. It's like, you know,
(17:07):
look himself on the other throws you just had him do.
Now you're putting the ball in his hands again. I
thought he was in good sacked. But yeah, that was
pretty pretty crazy, the fact they passed three straight times
and that in that spot.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
Last game on the board that we've bet so far
today for the contest was the Rams and the Packers.
This was our big balls, I think, and first one
we've lost this year, and we shouldn't have lost it. Like,
the Rams were dominating this game, and they were dominating
it in the exact way you said they were, which
was run the ball, run the ball, run the ball.
(17:40):
The problem was and like Sean McVay, you knew from
the beginning he was going to be uber aggressive, right
he went for a fourth down down seven to nothing
in the four yard line in the first quarter, Like
he knew he had to be aggressive to stay in
this game. And the problem and then the Rams were dominating.
They had twenty plays on the Packer's side of the
(18:02):
field in the first half. They had thirteen points. One
of them was a pick six, So like they just
couldn't finish and of course, goddamn kicker next the point
that basically is the reason we lost.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
This bet, and we both knew, right we've been betting
long enough. As soon as you missed that, it's like,
all right now you need a lot of things to
break your way to make up for that point, because
that's how it is when you bet these dogs. But
you're right. In that first half, I was like, this
should be twenty one to ten, like they dominated it,
and you know, they come out, this is on my
main TV. They have a great drive. I think it's
(18:37):
down to the twenty five and Williams fumbles for the Rams.
So again they're thirteen to ten. Drive in the field,
probably at least going to get three there. You know,
they fumble, it's like three four plays Green Bay. You know,
big plays, goes down the field, score another touchdown. And
that was my fear was we couldn't have Stafford playing
from behind with this team. We needed them to keep
(18:57):
running the ball and that's when they were going to
be dominant this game. Once he got behind, he needs
to start making big plays. That's where Stafford kind of,
you know, throws it up for people, and that's what
he did right, he had a bad turnover, So yeah,
it's the.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
Next series, had a bad turnover again in the packer's
side of the field. Like they couldn't they just couldn't
close it out.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Yeah, and they're just a really bad team. I mean,
the Rams are really bad and even in the game
where they dominated, they're just so bad that eventually, you know,
green Bay took advantage of it. And like you said,
once they misstok your point, we still had a chance.
They went, they went for the two pointer, and you know,
green Bay smart, they called a time out because they
(19:38):
knew they had a bad set on defense, came back
out in a different look, and they stuffed the Rams
on a reverse. So a day where all of our
bets basically came down to kickers and two pointers, we're
one and two right now, which is brutal, but it's
also a day where it's like we easily could have
been three and oh. So it's like trying not to
get too upset overreact to it. The biggest one, I mean,
(20:01):
if you're ready to get to it, was just thank
god Houston covered because I would have been a real
jackass if we were zero and three right now when
I made you switch out Arizona.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
Yeah, well look, thank god we didn't put in the Raiders,
we didn't put in the base.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
No, we're never going to contest.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
And I'm proud of us actually, And we didn't take
the bait on the Browns at three and a half.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Story because I remember you liked Seattle and the Browns
and both of them. I like, now that I talked
to you off it, I was just like, I bet
Washington at three I had no read on that one.
And then Seattle. I was just like, there's something fishy
about this line no neighbors. I didn't understand what that
line was. In seven and a half eight and boy
did the books know. The books know every teaser, everything
(20:48):
was tied to that Seattle team. I think they were
number one two. Any people left in their survivor contest
took Seattle. Just brutal, brutal, brutal survivor contest.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Oh my god, I just realized I told a friend
to take Seattle and their survivor.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
I think everyone did. It was the spot no neighbors.
It's crazy, you know what.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
I honestly, for I think for anybody left, it really
came down to Seattle and San Francisco. Yeah, and so
either way, you were losing this weekend if you took
out either one of those teams. So I don't I
don't feel that bad. What you want to what I
want to talk about? What you want to talk about Arizona?
(21:32):
I want to I want to go back to the
shows earlier this week. I want to bet the Packers
at three and a half. If I had, it would
have been stupid. And if I had, if the game
and end of the exact same way, I wouldn't have
deserved to have won that game.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Those are the best when you do win. Those the
ones you don't deserve.
Speaker 1 (21:50):
But your comment to me was, don't get cocky. And
then I said to you, we got to bet Arizona
seven and a half. You have to bet Arizona seven
and a half. These are the numbers we play, and
then quote, this is what we do. I feel like
(22:13):
you got bullied.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
I didn't, though I saw their reasoning. And again when
it was when you had a blocked field goal for
a touchdown and then a pick off, you know, Kyler,
and it's twenty three to ten, you get it. You're like, okay,
this is why so many people are warning me about
that number and to stay away. But what they don't
(22:35):
understand is in the year of twenty twenty four, if
you're a seven point dog, you're gonna win outright. Don't
really matter if you get a block kick. The other
team's kicker is going to break his leg and it's
gonna change the whole dynamic. I don't think they scored
a single point after that field goal made by their
their punter, like the punter kicked it. I think they
got it to twenty three points, and I don't think
(22:57):
the four and are scored the rest of the game.
It was why we loved, like you said, why we
love betting these stupid, ugly dogs. It's like the forty
nine ers didn't play that well. The Cardinals were getting
really unlucky, and then eventually they kept at it and
the tide flipped, and then it just got really stupid
and wonky once the kicker went out and was like, Okay,
they have a chance to somehow figure out a way
(23:17):
to win this game out right. Yeah, that's that's a
bad loss for the forty nine ers, right, A ten
point lead might have been the fourth quarter. Yeah, at home,
and you blow that one. But yeah, kudess to you.
It's just Kyler definitely played better than he had the
previous three four weeks, probably since Week two, and that
(23:39):
was a game they needed because people like me and
a lot of other people are just like you know,
especially when they were getting blown out. It's just like Kyler,
he's so inconsistent. But when he's on and he's running
the ball, like when he's using his legs as a threat,
the team is so different. And that's why I don't
get why some weeks he does in some weeks he doesn't.
Where it's like against the Commander, I think he rushed
for five yards might have been the second play of
(24:00):
the game. Against the forty nine ers, she ran for
that fifty yard touchdown. It's like that's his weapon. The
team needs to use it more. So, Yeah, someone and
you as well that bet futures market on This Cardinals
team definitely needed that one in a big way.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Trade McBride. One of the reasons why we liked the
Cardinals this week and that we felt Kyler could be
more consistent was because of Trey McBride coming back for
the first time in a few weeks, and look, he
had a massive play to start the game. He was
a great security blanket for Kyler on a bunch of plays.
Nine targets, six catches, fifty three yards. This was the
(24:39):
Cardinals team to me, at their best. We do have
to worry a little bit about a couple things here
before we get into the lines. Just looking bad at
some of these teams. How worried are we about CJ Stroud?
He is not playing well and all the magic that
(25:01):
he had last year on third downs seems to have disappeared.
Maybe it's Nico Collins, maybe it's tanked out, maybe it's
Joe Mixon. But they've won games. They're four and one.
Either they're better than we think, or they're a winning
team that is winning ugly despite not playing well and
(25:22):
beating good teams. Or they're getting really lucky and they're
going to get their come up ince and CJ is
struggling and having a hard time seeing the same things
he saw last.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Year a little bit. But I think, I mean, you
talked about it coming in the year. Why I was
just telling people, you know, I end up giving in him.
Did bet the over on I think it was nine
and a half or maybe ten for this Houston team.
But my whole reason for being cautious was teams ad
just they watched the tape from last year and they
(25:54):
figure out, Okay, what does this QB not like to
do and what does he really like to do and
excel at and they forced him against that. So you know,
you can see how teams are playing in and they're
shielding it to that he can't roll out to his
right to throw the ball and the move anymore. Right.
They kind of let the defenders go way outside on
the pass rush so that he's forced the other side
to throw across his body, which he doesn't look like
(26:14):
he's comfortable with doing. But as a whole I think,
you know, there's a lot of things in Houston offense
it feels like it's stupid, like the play callin wise
and you know, maybe you have to go back and
watch more of it. But you know, it's hard to
criticize the team that's four and one, but you're right,
it's like it's a it's a foreign one that feels
like they're very lucky to be for and one where
(26:34):
they've had some things break their.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
Way, not just a little Eagles four and one like
last year. Remember when the Eagles kept winning and winning
and when he then got exposed and like Jalen Hurts,
wasn't quite the quarterback he was the year before. There
was something missing, but they were a good team that
were getting the right bounces. It feels it feels a
little inflated to me.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Yeah, and it feels like a team that I'm not
sure yet. I have to look see what they're playing
next week. But the team I'm gonna want to fade
next week is I'm guessing Houston's on the road. And
it's just we've seen even Chris Raybond talk about today,
his splits at home and away are massive, Like he's
way better as a QB, not just last year, but
it's continued into this seasons. He's struggled on the road
this season. So yeah, I think you're right bring that
(27:20):
up where it's like I told you, the biggest thing
I noticed that was the Nico Collins thing. They looked
like a completely different offense and obviously he take away
his number one running back running back in Joe Mixon.
Now you're taking away Nico Collins. Yeah, a second year
quarterback is going to struggle a little bit, right, he's
lost two big pieces to his success. So we'll see
(27:40):
what their their status is for the upcoming week. But
I can tell you right now I'm probably gonna be
betting against Houston. It's just that they don't It's kind
of like the Chiefs thing. They just don't look right.
And the books knows the public are going to keep
coming on this team so they can keep bumping up.
I mean that was their first cover of the year, right,
and you know you said it best too, like when
it was plus one and a half. I me and
you were betting it pretty hard. I was feeling pretty
(28:01):
good about Houston when they flipped to a favorite, didn't like.
It made me a little uneasy. So yeah, there you go.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Uh they never make it easy. No, in the perfect
spot where you'd want to fade Houston, they're going to
go on the road as seven point favorites at the
New England Patriots.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
Yeah, God, that's gross.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
So that when we get to week six lines, let's
just pile in because we got a huge road favorite
as a touchdown. The Patriots are as likely to win
this game as they are to cover this game, so.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
It is actually correct this year. So I can't even
argue against it.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
You know, think about that, all right, we got to
do a quick the other thing before we get to
that same thing with the Niners. Like the Niners keep
looking amazing. Brock Purty looks like he can do so
much and they're not actually following through in anything. And
some of it is injuries. That had really freaky injuries
this year that I do think have impacted them. But
(28:59):
they're two and three right now.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
And again, he never lost coming into this year, he
was undefeated against the visual opponents. This year he's lost both.
He lost to the Rams and he just lost to Arizona.
And I mean it's it sounds lazy and simple, but
a graphic they kept putting up during the game was
last year they were nine for nine against that Arizona
team in the red zone with touchdowns, and in this game,
(29:23):
I think they what attacked.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
Won for six. The last time I saw the graphic,
they were one for four and I can't remember how
many more times they made it.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
So yeah, so I think right there, that's the big
issue for this team. But it's like they have they
have so much talent and perty is so good and
so comfortable, you know, in this game. His biggest weakness
was they had the hands up. You saw his size
a little bit coming to play here where it's like, Okay,
(29:51):
it's not the biggest deal. He's not six five, but
you saw they kept putting their hands up, and he
had two different tip passes right at the line though,
I think, did you have two picks off?
Speaker 1 (30:00):
Yeah, well one of them went for a pick to
end the game, right, that one.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
At the end of the game. So other than that,
the party man, he's he's really good. He is a
gamer like he has a couple of big time throws
that you're just you're just like, wow, but you're right.
Something something's a little off with this four nine ers team.
But it's so early in the year. It's like, you know,
as long as they can keep treading water, no team's
going to want to have to play them in the playoffs.
That there's just there's just so much talent for that
team across the board.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
Quick scoot Roulette, because we did forget to include this
in our last episode. We did Simon, You're on Pittsburgh
tonight two and a half point favorites against the Cowboys.
I'm on New Orleans at plus five and a half.
The truth is I meant to forget, so we could
be on these two teams and we could still include
it on Sunday and it would still be relevant for
(30:46):
the weekend ahead.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
Are we about three and one or are we two
and two?
Speaker 1 (30:50):
Oh my god, you're killing me. I've had a terrible year.
I think I'm one in three. You might be three
and one or two and two.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
All right, cool toms.
Speaker 1 (30:59):
We got to talk about some lines, like already, Simon, Yeah,
San Francisco is a three point favorite on the road
at Seattle. That's Thursday Night. Fortunately, we don't have to
take that because you kind of want to bet Thursday
Night favorites more than you might want to bet division dogs.
Speaker 2 (31:19):
It's already minus one twenty two. I bet through six
to five.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
So if we want to get it, get it now.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
How about your Bears team going to London off to
big blow out win and the.
Speaker 1 (31:28):
Bears are one and a half point favorites these London teams.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
We usually take the favorites, but aren't we supposed to
take the Jags at plus money before they flip to
a favorite.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Do you think that's what's going to happen?
Speaker 2 (31:39):
I do, But that's a tricky one just because the
Bears they just look so good defensively right now, Well.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
We don't have to rush like the Bears do look
amazing defensively.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
I'm grabbing the plus one plus one fifteen plus one
twenty right now on the Jaguars money line, just in
case they do flip to a favorite.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
Okay, all right, dot of mine net. I'm looking at
the board right now. God, these games are just terrible.
What is sticking out to you?
Speaker 2 (32:10):
I would say there's a couple of interesting lines. One
that jumps out right away. Ravens are at home minus
six and a half against Washington.
Speaker 1 (32:18):
I was going to ask you about that one.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
How I mean, how do we not bet Washington? Like
that's the scariest part of the books. Put these numbers
and it's like they know exactly what I want to do,
professionals want to do, and what the betting public wants
to do. And the betting public right now is like
give me all I can to the Commanders team this
This Ravens defense seems like they can't stop really good offenses.
(32:42):
Right We've seen it time and time again. Now, So
that's that's an interesting number. That's a lot of respect
to a Ravens team. Maybe I'm maybe I'm thinking, maybe
I'm wrong thinking this way, but I'm grabbing the plus
six now plus six and a half now the commanders.
I know it's more and our public sides and if eventually,
if we end up on the Ravens, we do. But
(33:02):
Chad knows my view on this. Once it gets above three,
I almost always fade Lamar, and this year I'm one
to Oh. I took the Raiders against him in this
exact spot, So I don't think the books. I said
same thing this week when I took Jane Daniels. Again,
I don't think the books caught up to it. But
even I don't know what the hell to do with it.
Like this kid is playing at such an insanely high level.
(33:24):
It's it's bizarre. Even Washington defense. Now, I mean they
dominated that offensive line in Cleveland. So yeah, it's a
bizarre world. So that one jumped out. Dallas Cowboys are
plus three against the Lions at home. Do we not
just take the Lions right now? At minus three? How
(33:46):
does this not go up?
Speaker 1 (33:48):
Yeah, especially after tonight, especially.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
After tonight that we think because we think Pittsburgh is
gonna win, and.
Speaker 1 (33:54):
I think Detroit is finally starting to sort of recognize
its power and play to its ability. I loved them
last week against He was perfect. Jared Goff was perfect,
literally perfect Jared.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
I don't need to talk about him. Detroit fans gotten
mad about him because we didn't bet that game, but
it was It was crazy how perfect he was against Seattle.
Speaker 1 (34:12):
The Lions are playing fourteen games essentially indoors. You know,
I'm counting this Cowboys game as indoor. I don't know
if it'll be the roof will be closed or not,
but it's a fast field and ideal conditions. And I
think this team has a lot of confidence right now.
And I think they also recognize they got to keep
(34:35):
pace with Minnesota and if they can really be the
team to beat. They got a lead on Detroit, on
San Francisco, they got it on Philadelphia that you know,
they got to figure out. Like Washington, the questions are
still out there, so they got to keep winning to
keep pace. And I think it's a really good team
right now. So totally agree with you.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
Yeah, that division is brutal, though, I mean, even your
Bears teams we're saying they're the worst team in that division.
They're gonna be really good once they started playing divisional
games come November December. Like you just see it every week,
even Killer Williams, Like, you know, he did a couple
of things today that were really stupid, but overall, a
couple of his throws, a couple of his move like
(35:17):
his movement in the pocket, it's like it was pretty good. Yeah,
it looked really good. And I know it's against Carolina,
but it's like, still, that's stuff you want to see
him do. It doesn't matter how bad the team is.
It's like he made some big time throws in that matchup. So, yeah,
the lines, you're right, I think, you know, just at
this number. I hate being on a favorite, especially this
(35:38):
type of scenario. I know everyone that everyone's gonna be
betting them in this spot, but it's like, don't we
have to take this number? Isn't this a really good number?
It just minus three? I just if if the Steelers
roll tonight, if they win by ten, how does this
not get up the four and a half?
Speaker 1 (35:53):
Yeall, it's moving immediately.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
Yeah, there's two other games that jump out to do
you see them or no?
Speaker 1 (36:01):
Well, there's I'm curious what yours are gonna be. I
like Tampa Bay at two and a half against New Orleans.
I'm curious about tomorrow night. Obviously, I'm very tempted by
the Patriots plus seven, just bet I'm already.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Yeah. When you guys mentioned it a text a runner,
I was like, Oh, just go bet this for me?
Why not?
Speaker 1 (36:31):
It's already minus one oh five, so it's gonna move
to six and a half very soon. I was the
one that stood out to me, to be honest.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Yeah, So just a game that jumped out to me
is just this. The Bengals are minus three and a
half on Sunday Night against the Giants. Do you think
the public's gonna buy this Giants team? You think they're
gonna bet them? Or what? Do you what do you
think is happened with that number. I'm not to see
what your view of it would be.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
I don't m it's a good question.
Speaker 2 (37:06):
He's a funny line where it's like, I immediately want
to bet the Giants like this this since the defense
you talked about they're really bad. They're bad, Like when
when will a back door not be open against them?
Even Carolina a terrible team almost backdoored them, So it's
like our reason for love and since he's all on
Joe Burrow, but you know, he's not gonna be able
(37:27):
to do what he did consistently in that game, Like
that was even for him, a fluky game.
Speaker 1 (37:32):
And the Giants d line is really good.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
That's why I loved about him coming to the year.
It's like, that's the only thing I could build my
hat on. Was like, what's what's why would I like
this team? It's like, how can they not be good
up front? They have so many good players that can
get to the quarterback and stop the run in their
front four. But yeah, I'm just shocked this this number
open plus three and a half. Clearly the books know
that people come in the Bengals, but you know, I
(37:57):
have this number two and a half. I thought they
would open it at three and get Bengals money then
move it up. But yeah, them opening up plus three
and a half on the Giants, I'll take a little
bit of that.
Speaker 1 (38:07):
I think there's one more game that's semi interesting to me.
I don't mind Green Bay minus.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Five green BA at home against the Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (38:18):
Against the Cardinals, I like this to me.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Oh, right after that, Cardinals win.
Speaker 1 (38:25):
Yeah, like that, Cardinals win.
Speaker 2 (38:27):
Right.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
The Packers escaped in a really tough spot in which
they didn't play well. Jordan Love continues to get a
little bit better. He made some spectacular throws, he made
some really good runs. The Packers defense continues to be opportunistic.
The Cardinals continue to be the kind of team that
makes mistakes and puts themselves in position to have other
(38:51):
teams be opportunistic against them. I'm not afraid of the five,
and in fact, I think it might come down because
of how well the Cardinals played. But that was the spot,
you know, like the Cardinals are the kind of team
where you know when they're going to be competitive against
the Niners on the road in the division as big dogs,
(39:14):
is when they're going to be competitive. And as you
pointed out, this game might be thirty to ten if
the forty nine ers have a kicker, right.
Speaker 2 (39:24):
Yeah, that's that's interesting to open that a five point
dog in that spot. So yeah, it seems like the
books are getting a little bit a little bit more
respect that to this Backers team. I mean, you're right,
I can see this, I could h.
Speaker 1 (39:38):
You think it'll go up?
Speaker 2 (39:40):
It could I'm trying to think right now if this,
if this is going to be a big side but
that the public really likes. But I think people, if
you bet green Bay, aren't you feeling like you got
away with one there? Like we talked about totally.
Speaker 1 (39:52):
That's what I mean. Yeah, so it could, it could
go down like but I think I'm going to like
green Bay this week, just eyeballing it right now, Like
we get to Tuesday and I'm probably gonna have a
different opinion.
Speaker 2 (40:06):
Well, they cleaned up. This is the four bets I'm on.
I took the Giants home dog plus three and a half,
taking the Lions on the road minus three against the Cowboys,
taking Washington plus six and a half on the road
against the Ravens. And I think Chad's joining me. We're
both taking the Patriots plus seven.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
We are, That's what's happening.
Speaker 2 (40:26):
A lot of early bets.
Speaker 1 (40:28):
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get two hundred dollars and bonus bets. When you
bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit
ten dollars and place a bet for five dollars to
get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
(40:48):
Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five.
Must be twenty one or older in Presidenton Arizona, Colorado,
or Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Virginia or eight ten and noler in Kentucky. Gambling problem
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(41:09):
episode of The Favorites live on Tuesday at one thirty
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(41:32):
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hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
Live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Mellman,
Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. This is our
Sunday Night episode in which we review the faves five
picks we put into the contest, discussed why, discuss why
(00:33):
we left some games out, preview the early lines we
already like for week six. I'm joined as always by
my co host, my companion, Mike Campadre my BFF, professional
vetter Ed Osimon.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Hi, Chad dud Dude.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
We just finished watching the Rams game, which was an
extreme cruciating beat. We'll get into it because they actually
played better than the Packers the whole game. Goddamn kickers, Kickers.
What an insane, ugly, infuriating, tense, exhausting and to all
(01:19):
three games we had in our early and late window
that we put in the contest. Don't forget we have
the Steelers minus two and a half tonight, New Orleans
plus five and a half tomorrow. In these games, there'll
been a cavalcade of bad quarterback play from quarterbacks. We
almost always can count on befuddling, idiotic play calling from coaches,
(01:45):
ultimately a one and two start in games in which
it looked like we could have gone three and zero.
We could have gone two and one. We could have
gone oh and three. It could have been one and
two with a different combination of games. We'll break it
all down. If you believe you could beat our picks
this season, be our guest, let us pay you forty
thousand dollars. Sign up four at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.
(02:11):
Catch every opposite eph catch every episode of the Favorites
live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget
to give us a like and subscribe to the Action
Network YouTube page. I am as tongue tied about these
reads as I am about what happened on the field today.
As a reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by
(02:33):
Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
ten dollars and place a bet for five dollars to
get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty
(02:56):
five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Virginia,
I'm sorry, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem, call one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
Iowa terms conditioned restrictions applied. Maybe I'm like losing it
(03:22):
right now because my brain has melted from some of
the games today. Here's a little stat we've been tracking
and talking about it in all the podcasts. How the
underdogs of six plus points are doing this season now
eleven and eight straight up sixteen two and one against
(03:44):
the spread this season, the first time since nineteen sixty
dogs of six or more are over five hundred straight
up through five weeks with the best against the spread.
When page one of those games was one of our
last ones out Today, we will get to that crazy
(04:06):
crazy day. First up, Baltimore's Cincinnati. Look, this was a
kick in the dick because the Bengals were up by
ten points three different times in the second half twenty
four to fourteen, thirty one, twenty one, thirty eight, twenty eight.
Like there was a point where Lamar Jackson bobbled a
(04:26):
snap twice, scrambled all over the field, ended up rolling right,
lofted a ball across his body to the middle of
the end zone for an Isaiah Likely touchdown to make
it thirty one to twenty eight. In my notes, I wrote,
no one can stop anyone. The next series, Jamar Chase
takes a screen, goes sixty yards for a touchdown, and
(04:48):
the Bengals are back up thirty eight twenty eight. Both
teams averaged six point eight yards per play, insane, and
we lost.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Yeah, it sucks because that was so much fun. I mean,
that's those are the best games to watch. And you're
feeling pretty good because you got the dog in a
shootout game, right and your dog is up. And honestly,
even when they were scoring all those points of the Ravens,
I was like, it's okay, Joe will keep keep getting
us back. And yeah, the one he tried to force
to Chase trying into an interception kind of flipped the
(05:22):
game because even then, at worst they were gonna get
three points and we were gonna be up six. Yeah,
and that was gonna be nice for us with our
number two and a half. It's like, okay, even if
we don't win out right here, at least we'll get
the cover. And uh no, the gambling gods had other plans.
They tried to get cue with it, and overtime they
ran I think three times or whatever it was, got
(05:43):
zero yards, put their kicker at a long kick, you know,
like you said, fumble, snap, put it down, bad kick.
You know, as soon as they missed that, we both
knew we were dead. I mean that that just sucked
all the air out the stadium. So that was just
a brutal way to start the day.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
And like, what's so frustrating about this game? Burrow is
the guy we want to have the ball. And you
would say earlier this week, you and Evan talked about
this Joe Burrow as a long shot MVP candidate if
this Bengals team could go on a run.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Still not terrible. I think he had fourty yards of
five touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
Four hundred yards five touchdowns, one costly pick, but he
was playing like the Burrow who had been playing this
way all season, only he'd been doing it in the
best possible circumstances for his team to really get back
into the year. Right now, that one in four and
that pick was excruciating. I don't blame him, because we're
(06:49):
not in it without him. You gotta blame the defense
because look in the overtime Lamar Jackson fumble, they get
the ball back, and like you said, explain this to me.
You have Joe Burrow who's thrown for four hundred yards
and five touchdowns. You have Jamar Chase who has ten
(07:11):
touchdowns before the age of twenty five of sixty plus yards,
he set a new record today, breaking Odell Beckham Junior's record.
I know everybody thinks fifty yard field goals are gimmes now,
but they're not. They're just not. So why are you
(07:31):
not even trying to gain any yards when you have
the ball on the thirty five yard line. It doesn't
make any sense to me at all. When you were
watching that, are you thinking like, oh, yeah, this is
exactly what I would do.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
No, I've said thought as you. I was just thinking
to myself Okay, get one more first down, then go
for the kicks, I mean the runs. Like if you
get one first down, then it's like you just said,
it's a forty yarder, not a fifty yarder. And what
was even like it was a fifty yard I think
it was like a fifty eight. It was something crazy
like that.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
It was fifty three field Okay.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
I just remember thinking like that's still really far. But yeah, again,
all of our bets today came down to a kicker.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yeah, and it's crazy, like Justin Tucker finally found his
range and kicked a fifty six yard field goal. It
was just excruciating. We either we either totally deserved that
win and just got you know, totally posed, or we
(08:34):
don't deserve it at all.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
It's also the best of the number, right, Like the
people at the three, the plus three, they were never
word me and you sitting there two and a half.
We were dying all game because we knew it was
gonna come down to that number.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
Well, look that I'm glad you said that, because I
do want to point out, if I'm not mistaken, Cincinnati
plus three was your Simon.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
Says, yeah, but push pushes hurt just as bad, you.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Know, and so at least a push you don't lose,
I know, and you know, we don't get that option
in the contest, so we were always on Cincy at
two and a half. So a lot of things went
the wrong way for us, but pointed a brief second.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
That was the one team we talked about switching out
for a brief second this morning, but you're.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Right, we did before.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
It was honestly stupid people, but it was in the
end it was semi sound because it was just we're
all all the games we had, that was the one
that scared me the most. All the other games I
felt comfortable with, but there was just something about this
line sitting at two and a half all week. Something
was off about it. But well luck we end of
the day. It was just bad luck.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
It was It was really bad luck. And these half
points are becoming so much more relevant this year. V
maybe this is something we look up for the Tuesday
show because haven't had a great stat He did it
unconvinced me the pregame show this morning, and we talked
to about it earlier in the week on Thursday. The
spreads right now are historically low four point two points
(10:08):
per game, right, So when a spread is that low,
it naturally means that a half point is going to
have a percentage influence that is much greater on winning
or losing than when there's a much bigger variance in
the spreads. So that half point, all of a sudden,
means the world to us, which is why we decided
(10:32):
not to take it out because we also loved Houston,
and we loved Houston at minus a half, which is
when we put it in on Friday, and by today
the line was up to one and a half, and
we didn't want to lose the one and a half
on Houston because we felt like this game could be
a little bit close. And this is another one where
(10:55):
we had a big lead. Texans were up twenty to
three in the second half and then just slowly but surely,
they let it bleed away. What were you thinking when
we were watching that game.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
That was like that that game was dead. We should
have lost that game, Yeah, CJ he whatever. Whatever. They
talked about it halftime, they came out of a game plan.
He looked totally uncomfortable, totally lost. Once Nico Collins left
that game, Yes, something shifted that offense where he just
did not feel comfortable anymore. And I mean the one
(11:33):
turner rehad the interception obviously was bad. He threw it
to a spot that his Rye receiver went to. The
other went the other way, or maybe it was the
tight end went the other way. He threw it to
the other spot. The defender was right there for the pick.
The fumble was inexcusable though. That was just like, oh
my god, in your own end. After Josh Allen had
most likely just got a concussion and somehow yes talked
(11:54):
his way out of the tent and came back out,
and I was like, okay, if they get a touchdown here,
me and you, I just thought me and you were dead.
And you know, luckily the defense held. You could see
Josh just wasn't right, like you know, he didn't didn't
come out there and looked like his old self. To
two plays that he had guys open. He didn't make
the throw. Got lucky that they took a field goal there,
(12:16):
and then you know, once again came down to a kicker.
Houston put them in the position to get the CJ
put them in the position to get the three man.
That was that was a sweat once he kicked that throw,
I was like, Okay, at least at least the right
side on that one came through, because you're right. It
was up twenty to three and Houston had the ball,
and it was just like, Okay, this was a good read,
(12:38):
good bet. Not so much. It was a sweat all
way to the end there. So yeah, never never easy,
is it.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Yeah, that's actually why I'm not so bummed about the
one in two, because like, we lost the Bengals game
that we probably should have won, but we won the
Texans game that we probably show lost only because of CJ.
(13:04):
Josh Allen was downright terrible. Nine of thirty one hundred
and thirty one yards, four point four yards per attempt,
the Bills three to fourteen on third down, and that
was even before.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
That's what I mean. That's why I don't know if
we deserve to lose that. Like they dominated Josh Allen
that game. They had two big plays that turn into touchdowns. Yes,
I mean did you watch that all that London game? Yes,
it was incredible. I think Sam Darnold might have had
ten completions for like one hundred yards like that. He
was awful with an interception and they almost won by
(13:37):
double digits. It's just it really shows this year, like
these complete teams, the teams that do have the defense
with the offense like that. You know that second half
we were dead, Like you said, CJ was awful, but
lucky for us Houston's defense, you know, they kept us
in this game.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
Well, either I was going to say, even before Josh
Allen hit the turf and the two violent hits today,
there was this guy in the Panthers, the tight end Tremble,
who looked like he just flopped. He got hit so
hard by Jakwan Brisker, flopped, dropped the ball mid air
(14:15):
like when he was falling to the ground. The Bears
recover it. It looked like he was out cold. And
then the Josh Allen hit where his head slammed into
the turf. I am shocked they let him come back
into the game because if it's not there's something fishy
about that one one hundred percent, because there has to be,
(14:38):
because he was dazed, he was out like that was
uncomfortable to look at in the replay.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
Well, the key is to be really dumb on your
cognitive test when you do it, like when you don't
have a concussion, and so your baseline's really loose, and
maybe Josh Allen knows the system, so he did the test.
I saw them give him the test on the sidelines,
and it's you know, I see it's a lot of
pressure on this doctor who doesn't work for the team,
he works for the league. But yeah, I could not
believe when he came back out there. I really couldn't,
(15:07):
because it was like everyone knows he just he got
a concussion. I mean, there's there's no way around. He
got slammed really hard on the turf, which is concrete.
But yeah, yeah, you're right, that's a question work for
this upcoming week. Maybe we'll see what the lines are
for that. But there could not be a line on
his game just because it's unknown if he'll be playing
in it.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
In the second half of that game, after going up
twenty to three, you mentioned a couple mistakes by CG.
I just want to be clear about what they were.
The Texans went they were They went up to twenty
to three, the Bills came back, cut it to twenty ten.
Texans go three and out, they give up a TD,
they're up twenty seventeen, went five and out, forced to punt.
(15:49):
CJ throws and pick at the Buffalo twenty, the Bills punt,
CJ fumbles at his own fifteen. Texans get the ball back,
they're driving close ished field goal range, cig gets called
for intentional grounding on third down knocks them out of
field goal range. But this is where we won the game,
(16:11):
and thank god for idiotic play calling. It killed us
with the Bengals and that overtime drive, but it won
us because the Bills threw three straight times out of
the back of the end zone when the Texans had
no timeouts and the game could have gone to overtime,
(16:33):
and they end up getting the punt, getting into field
goal range and kicking a fifty eight year field goal.
What the f were the Bills thinking? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (16:45):
I think they were thinking, well, they have three time outs,
so even if we run it here three times, how
much time does that take off? But because they had
those three timeouts, they were able to put themselves in
a field goal position and kick that field goal. Like
you just said, so, yeah, pretty bizarre, But again it
was I couldn't even watch it. You just det it
out looked like Josh Allen there on those three throws.
That's another reason I didn't get it. It's like, you know,
(17:07):
look himself on the other throws you just had him do.
Now you're putting the ball in his hands again. I
thought he was in good sacked. But yeah, that was
pretty pretty crazy, the fact they passed three straight times
and that in that spot.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
Last game on the board that we've bet so far
today for the contest was the Rams and the Packers.
This was our big balls, I think, and first one
we've lost this year, and we shouldn't have lost it. Like,
the Rams were dominating this game, and they were dominating
it in the exact way you said they were, which
was run the ball, run the ball, run the ball.
(17:40):
The problem was and like Sean McVay, you knew from
the beginning he was going to be uber aggressive, right
he went for a fourth down down seven to nothing
in the four yard line in the first quarter, Like
he knew he had to be aggressive to stay in
this game. And the problem and then the Rams were dominating.
They had twenty plays on the Packer's side of the
(18:02):
field in the first half. They had thirteen points. One
of them was a pick six, So like they just
couldn't finish and of course, goddamn kicker next the point
that basically is the reason we lost.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
This bet, and we both knew, right we've been betting
long enough. As soon as you missed that, it's like,
all right now you need a lot of things to
break your way to make up for that point, because
that's how it is when you bet these dogs. But
you're right. In that first half, I was like, this
should be twenty one to ten, like they dominated it,
and you know, they come out, this is on my
main TV. They have a great drive. I think it's
(18:37):
down to the twenty five and Williams fumbles for the Rams.
So again they're thirteen to ten. Drive in the field,
probably at least going to get three there. You know,
they fumble, it's like three four plays Green Bay. You know,
big plays, goes down the field, score another touchdown. And
that was my fear was we couldn't have Stafford playing
from behind with this team. We needed them to keep
(18:57):
running the ball and that's when they were going to
be dominant this game. Once he got behind, he needs
to start making big plays. That's where Stafford kind of,
you know, throws it up for people, and that's what
he did right, he had a bad turnover, So yeah,
it's the.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
Next series, had a bad turnover again in the packer's
side of the field. Like they couldn't they just couldn't
close it out.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Yeah, and they're just a really bad team. I mean,
the Rams are really bad and even in the game
where they dominated, they're just so bad that eventually, you know,
green Bay took advantage of it. And like you said,
once they misstok your point, we still had a chance.
They went, they went for the two pointer, and you know,
green Bay smart, they called a time out because they
(19:38):
knew they had a bad set on defense, came back
out in a different look, and they stuffed the Rams
on a reverse. So a day where all of our
bets basically came down to kickers and two pointers, we're
one and two right now, which is brutal, but it's
also a day where it's like we easily could have
been three and oh. So it's like trying not to
get too upset overreact to it. The biggest one, I mean,
(20:01):
if you're ready to get to it, was just thank
god Houston covered because I would have been a real
jackass if we were zero and three right now when
I made you switch out Arizona.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
Yeah, well look, thank god we didn't put in the Raiders,
we didn't put in the base.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
No, we're never going to contest.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
And I'm proud of us actually, And we didn't take
the bait on the Browns at three and a half.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Story because I remember you liked Seattle and the Browns
and both of them. I like, now that I talked
to you off it, I was just like, I bet
Washington at three I had no read on that one.
And then Seattle. I was just like, there's something fishy
about this line no neighbors. I didn't understand what that
line was. In seven and a half eight and boy
did the books know. The books know every teaser, everything
(20:48):
was tied to that Seattle team. I think they were
number one two. Any people left in their survivor contest
took Seattle. Just brutal, brutal, brutal survivor contest.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Oh my god, I just realized I told a friend
to take Seattle and their survivor.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
I think everyone did. It was the spot no neighbors.
It's crazy, you know what.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
I honestly, for I think for anybody left, it really
came down to Seattle and San Francisco. Yeah, and so
either way, you were losing this weekend if you took
out either one of those teams. So I don't I
don't feel that bad. What you want to what I
want to talk about? What you want to talk about Arizona?
(21:32):
I want to I want to go back to the
shows earlier this week. I want to bet the Packers
at three and a half. If I had, it would
have been stupid. And if I had, if the game
and end of the exact same way, I wouldn't have
deserved to have won that game.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Those are the best when you do win. Those the
ones you don't deserve.
Speaker 1 (21:50):
But your comment to me was, don't get cocky. And
then I said to you, we got to bet Arizona
seven and a half. You have to bet Arizona seven
and a half. These are the numbers we play, and
then quote, this is what we do. I feel like
(22:13):
you got bullied.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
I didn't, though I saw their reasoning. And again when
it was when you had a blocked field goal for
a touchdown and then a pick off, you know, Kyler,
and it's twenty three to ten, you get it. You're like, okay,
this is why so many people are warning me about
that number and to stay away. But what they don't
(22:35):
understand is in the year of twenty twenty four, if
you're a seven point dog, you're gonna win outright. Don't
really matter if you get a block kick. The other
team's kicker is going to break his leg and it's
gonna change the whole dynamic. I don't think they scored
a single point after that field goal made by their
their punter, like the punter kicked it. I think they
got it to twenty three points, and I don't think
(22:57):
the four and are scored the rest of the game.
It was why we loved, like you said, why we
love betting these stupid, ugly dogs. It's like the forty
nine ers didn't play that well. The Cardinals were getting
really unlucky, and then eventually they kept at it and
the tide flipped, and then it just got really stupid
and wonky once the kicker went out and was like, Okay,
they have a chance to somehow figure out a way
(23:17):
to win this game out right. Yeah, that's that's a
bad loss for the forty nine ers, right, A ten
point lead might have been the fourth quarter. Yeah, at home,
and you blow that one. But yeah, kudess to you.
It's just Kyler definitely played better than he had the
previous three four weeks, probably since Week two, and that
(23:39):
was a game they needed because people like me and
a lot of other people are just like you know,
especially when they were getting blown out. It's just like Kyler,
he's so inconsistent. But when he's on and he's running
the ball, like when he's using his legs as a threat,
the team is so different. And that's why I don't
get why some weeks he does in some weeks he doesn't.
Where it's like against the Commander, I think he rushed
for five yards might have been the second play of
(24:00):
the game. Against the forty nine ers, she ran for
that fifty yard touchdown. It's like that's his weapon. The
team needs to use it more. So, Yeah, someone and
you as well that bet futures market on This Cardinals
team definitely needed that one in a big way.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Trade McBride. One of the reasons why we liked the
Cardinals this week and that we felt Kyler could be
more consistent was because of Trey McBride coming back for
the first time in a few weeks, and look, he
had a massive play to start the game. He was
a great security blanket for Kyler on a bunch of plays.
Nine targets, six catches, fifty three yards. This was the
(24:39):
Cardinals team to me, at their best. We do have
to worry a little bit about a couple things here
before we get into the lines. Just looking bad at
some of these teams. How worried are we about CJ Stroud?
He is not playing well and all the magic that
(25:01):
he had last year on third downs seems to have disappeared.
Maybe it's Nico Collins, maybe it's tanked out, maybe it's
Joe Mixon. But they've won games. They're four and one.
Either they're better than we think, or they're a winning
team that is winning ugly despite not playing well and
(25:22):
beating good teams. Or they're getting really lucky and they're
going to get their come up ince and CJ is
struggling and having a hard time seeing the same things
he saw last.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Year a little bit. But I think, I mean, you
talked about it coming in the year. Why I was
just telling people, you know, I end up giving in him.
Did bet the over on I think it was nine
and a half or maybe ten for this Houston team.
But my whole reason for being cautious was teams ad
just they watched the tape from last year and they
(25:54):
figure out, Okay, what does this QB not like to
do and what does he really like to do and
excel at and they forced him against that. So you know,
you can see how teams are playing in and they're
shielding it to that he can't roll out to his
right to throw the ball and the move anymore. Right.
They kind of let the defenders go way outside on
the pass rush so that he's forced the other side
to throw across his body, which he doesn't look like
(26:14):
he's comfortable with doing. But as a whole I think,
you know, there's a lot of things in Houston offense
it feels like it's stupid, like the play callin wise
and you know, maybe you have to go back and
watch more of it. But you know, it's hard to
criticize the team that's four and one, but you're right,
it's like it's a it's a foreign one that feels
like they're very lucky to be for and one where
(26:34):
they've had some things break their.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
Way, not just a little Eagles four and one like
last year. Remember when the Eagles kept winning and winning
and when he then got exposed and like Jalen Hurts,
wasn't quite the quarterback he was the year before. There
was something missing, but they were a good team that
were getting the right bounces. It feels it feels a
little inflated to me.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Yeah, and it feels like a team that I'm not
sure yet. I have to look see what they're playing
next week. But the team I'm gonna want to fade
next week is I'm guessing Houston's on the road. And
it's just we've seen even Chris Raybond talk about today,
his splits at home and away are massive, Like he's
way better as a QB, not just last year, but
it's continued into this seasons. He's struggled on the road
this season. So yeah, I think you're right bring that
(27:20):
up where it's like I told you, the biggest thing
I noticed that was the Nico Collins thing. They looked
like a completely different offense and obviously he take away
his number one running back running back in Joe Mixon.
Now you're taking away Nico Collins. Yeah, a second year
quarterback is going to struggle a little bit, right, he's
lost two big pieces to his success. So we'll see
(27:40):
what their their status is for the upcoming week. But
I can tell you right now I'm probably gonna be
betting against Houston. It's just that they don't It's kind
of like the Chiefs thing. They just don't look right.
And the books knows the public are going to keep
coming on this team so they can keep bumping up.
I mean that was their first cover of the year, right,
and you know you said it best too, like when
it was plus one and a half. I me and
you were betting it pretty hard. I was feeling pretty
(28:01):
good about Houston when they flipped to a favorite, didn't like.
It made me a little uneasy. So yeah, there you go.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Uh they never make it easy. No, in the perfect
spot where you'd want to fade Houston, they're going to
go on the road as seven point favorites at the
New England Patriots.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
Yeah, God, that's gross.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
So that when we get to week six lines, let's
just pile in because we got a huge road favorite
as a touchdown. The Patriots are as likely to win
this game as they are to cover this game, so.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
It is actually correct this year. So I can't even
argue against it.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
You know, think about that, all right, we got to
do a quick the other thing before we get to
that same thing with the Niners. Like the Niners keep
looking amazing. Brock Purty looks like he can do so
much and they're not actually following through in anything. And
some of it is injuries. That had really freaky injuries
this year that I do think have impacted them. But
(28:59):
they're two and three right now.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
And again, he never lost coming into this year, he
was undefeated against the visual opponents. This year he's lost both.
He lost to the Rams and he just lost to Arizona.
And I mean it's it sounds lazy and simple, but
a graphic they kept putting up during the game was
last year they were nine for nine against that Arizona
team in the red zone with touchdowns, and in this game,
(29:23):
I think they what attacked.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
Won for six. The last time I saw the graphic,
they were one for four and I can't remember how
many more times they made it.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
So yeah, so I think right there, that's the big
issue for this team. But it's like they have they
have so much talent and perty is so good and
so comfortable, you know, in this game. His biggest weakness
was they had the hands up. You saw his size
a little bit coming to play here where it's like, Okay,
(29:51):
it's not the biggest deal. He's not six five, but
you saw they kept putting their hands up, and he
had two different tip passes right at the line though,
I think, did you have two picks off?
Speaker 1 (30:00):
Yeah, well one of them went for a pick to
end the game, right, that one.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
At the end of the game. So other than that,
the party man, he's he's really good. He is a
gamer like he has a couple of big time throws
that you're just you're just like, wow, but you're right.
Something something's a little off with this four nine ers team.
But it's so early in the year. It's like, you know,
as long as they can keep treading water, no team's
going to want to have to play them in the playoffs.
That there's just there's just so much talent for that
team across the board.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
Quick scoot Roulette, because we did forget to include this
in our last episode. We did Simon, You're on Pittsburgh
tonight two and a half point favorites against the Cowboys.
I'm on New Orleans at plus five and a half.
The truth is I meant to forget, so we could
be on these two teams and we could still include
it on Sunday and it would still be relevant for
(30:46):
the weekend ahead.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
Are we about three and one or are we two
and two?
Speaker 1 (30:50):
Oh my god, you're killing me. I've had a terrible year.
I think I'm one in three. You might be three
and one or two and two.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
All right, cool toms.
Speaker 1 (30:59):
We got to talk about some lines, like already, Simon, Yeah,
San Francisco is a three point favorite on the road
at Seattle. That's Thursday Night. Fortunately, we don't have to
take that because you kind of want to bet Thursday
Night favorites more than you might want to bet division dogs.
Speaker 2 (31:19):
It's already minus one twenty two. I bet through six
to five.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
So if we want to get it, get it now.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
How about your Bears team going to London off to
big blow out win and the.
Speaker 1 (31:28):
Bears are one and a half point favorites these London teams.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
We usually take the favorites, but aren't we supposed to
take the Jags at plus money before they flip to
a favorite.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Do you think that's what's going to happen?
Speaker 2 (31:39):
I do, But that's a tricky one just because the
Bears they just look so good defensively right now, Well.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
We don't have to rush like the Bears do look
amazing defensively.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
I'm grabbing the plus one plus one fifteen plus one
twenty right now on the Jaguars money line, just in
case they do flip to a favorite.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
Okay, all right, dot of mine net. I'm looking at
the board right now. God, these games are just terrible.
What is sticking out to you?
Speaker 2 (32:10):
I would say there's a couple of interesting lines. One
that jumps out right away. Ravens are at home minus
six and a half against Washington.
Speaker 1 (32:18):
I was going to ask you about that one.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
How I mean, how do we not bet Washington? Like
that's the scariest part of the books. Put these numbers
and it's like they know exactly what I want to do,
professionals want to do, and what the betting public wants
to do. And the betting public right now is like
give me all I can to the Commanders team this
This Ravens defense seems like they can't stop really good offenses.
(32:42):
Right We've seen it time and time again. Now, So
that's that's an interesting number. That's a lot of respect
to a Ravens team. Maybe I'm maybe I'm thinking, maybe
I'm wrong thinking this way, but I'm grabbing the plus
six now plus six and a half now the commanders.
I know it's more and our public sides and if eventually,
if we end up on the Ravens, we do. But
(33:02):
Chad knows my view on this. Once it gets above three,
I almost always fade Lamar, and this year I'm one
to Oh. I took the Raiders against him in this
exact spot, So I don't think the books. I said
same thing this week when I took Jane Daniels. Again,
I don't think the books caught up to it. But
even I don't know what the hell to do with it.
Like this kid is playing at such an insanely high level.
(33:24):
It's it's bizarre. Even Washington defense. Now, I mean they
dominated that offensive line in Cleveland. So yeah, it's a
bizarre world. So that one jumped out. Dallas Cowboys are
plus three against the Lions at home. Do we not
just take the Lions right now? At minus three? How
(33:46):
does this not go up?
Speaker 1 (33:48):
Yeah, especially after tonight, especially.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
After tonight that we think because we think Pittsburgh is
gonna win, and.
Speaker 1 (33:54):
I think Detroit is finally starting to sort of recognize
its power and play to its ability. I loved them
last week against He was perfect. Jared Goff was perfect,
literally perfect Jared.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
I don't need to talk about him. Detroit fans gotten
mad about him because we didn't bet that game, but
it was It was crazy how perfect he was against Seattle.
Speaker 1 (34:12):
The Lions are playing fourteen games essentially indoors. You know,
I'm counting this Cowboys game as indoor. I don't know
if it'll be the roof will be closed or not,
but it's a fast field and ideal conditions. And I
think this team has a lot of confidence right now.
And I think they also recognize they got to keep
(34:35):
pace with Minnesota and if they can really be the
team to beat. They got a lead on Detroit, on
San Francisco, they got it on Philadelphia that you know,
they got to figure out. Like Washington, the questions are
still out there, so they got to keep winning to
keep pace. And I think it's a really good team
right now. So totally agree with you.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
Yeah, that division is brutal, though, I mean, even your
Bears teams we're saying they're the worst team in that division.
They're gonna be really good once they started playing divisional
games come November December. Like you just see it every week,
even Killer Williams, Like, you know, he did a couple
of things today that were really stupid, but overall, a
couple of his throws, a couple of his move like
(35:17):
his movement in the pocket, it's like it was pretty good. Yeah,
it looked really good. And I know it's against Carolina,
but it's like, still, that's stuff you want to see
him do. It doesn't matter how bad the team is.
It's like he made some big time throws in that matchup. So, yeah,
the lines, you're right, I think, you know, just at
this number. I hate being on a favorite, especially this
(35:38):
type of scenario. I know everyone that everyone's gonna be
betting them in this spot, but it's like, don't we
have to take this number? Isn't this a really good number?
It just minus three? I just if if the Steelers
roll tonight, if they win by ten, how does this
not get up the four and a half?
Speaker 1 (35:53):
Yeall, it's moving immediately.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
Yeah, there's two other games that jump out to do
you see them or no?
Speaker 1 (36:01):
Well, there's I'm curious what yours are gonna be. I
like Tampa Bay at two and a half against New Orleans.
I'm curious about tomorrow night. Obviously, I'm very tempted by
the Patriots plus seven, just bet I'm already.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Yeah. When you guys mentioned it a text a runner,
I was like, Oh, just go bet this for me?
Why not?
Speaker 1 (36:31):
It's already minus one oh five, so it's gonna move
to six and a half very soon. I was the
one that stood out to me, to be honest.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Yeah, So just a game that jumped out to me
is just this. The Bengals are minus three and a
half on Sunday Night against the Giants. Do you think
the public's gonna buy this Giants team? You think they're
gonna bet them? Or what? Do you what do you
think is happened with that number. I'm not to see
what your view of it would be.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
I don't m it's a good question.
Speaker 2 (37:06):
He's a funny line where it's like, I immediately want
to bet the Giants like this this since the defense
you talked about they're really bad. They're bad, Like when
when will a back door not be open against them?
Even Carolina a terrible team almost backdoored them, So it's
like our reason for love and since he's all on
Joe Burrow, but you know, he's not gonna be able
(37:27):
to do what he did consistently in that game, Like
that was even for him, a fluky game.
Speaker 1 (37:32):
And the Giants d line is really good.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
That's why I loved about him coming to the year.
It's like, that's the only thing I could build my
hat on. Was like, what's what's why would I like
this team? It's like, how can they not be good
up front? They have so many good players that can
get to the quarterback and stop the run in their
front four. But yeah, I'm just shocked this this number
open plus three and a half. Clearly the books know
that people come in the Bengals, but you know, I
(37:57):
have this number two and a half. I thought they
would open it at three and get Bengals money then
move it up. But yeah, them opening up plus three
and a half on the Giants, I'll take a little
bit of that.
Speaker 1 (38:07):
I think there's one more game that's semi interesting to me.
I don't mind Green Bay minus.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Five green BA at home against the Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (38:18):
Against the Cardinals, I like this to me.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Oh, right after that, Cardinals win.
Speaker 1 (38:25):
Yeah, like that, Cardinals win.
Speaker 2 (38:27):
Right.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
The Packers escaped in a really tough spot in which
they didn't play well. Jordan Love continues to get a
little bit better. He made some spectacular throws, he made
some really good runs. The Packers defense continues to be opportunistic.
The Cardinals continue to be the kind of team that
makes mistakes and puts themselves in position to have other
(38:51):
teams be opportunistic against them. I'm not afraid of the five,
and in fact, I think it might come down because
of how well the Cardinals played. But that was the spot,
you know, like the Cardinals are the kind of team
where you know when they're going to be competitive against
the Niners on the road in the division as big dogs,
(39:14):
is when they're going to be competitive. And as you
pointed out, this game might be thirty to ten if
the forty nine ers have a kicker, right.
Speaker 2 (39:24):
Yeah, that's that's interesting to open that a five point
dog in that spot. So yeah, it seems like the
books are getting a little bit a little bit more
respect that to this Backers team. I mean, you're right,
I can see this, I could h.
Speaker 1 (39:38):
You think it'll go up?
Speaker 2 (39:40):
It could I'm trying to think right now if this,
if this is going to be a big side but
that the public really likes. But I think people, if
you bet green Bay, aren't you feeling like you got
away with one there? Like we talked about totally.
Speaker 1 (39:52):
That's what I mean. Yeah, so it could, it could
go down like but I think I'm going to like
green Bay this week, just eyeballing it right now, Like
we get to Tuesday and I'm probably gonna have a
different opinion.
Speaker 2 (40:06):
Well, they cleaned up. This is the four bets I'm on.
I took the Giants home dog plus three and a half,
taking the Lions on the road minus three against the Cowboys,
taking Washington plus six and a half on the road
against the Ravens. And I think Chad's joining me. We're
both taking the Patriots plus seven.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
We are, That's what's happening.
Speaker 2 (40:26):
A lot of early bets.
Speaker 1 (40:28):
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get two hundred dollars and bonus bets. When you
bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit
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get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
(40:48):
Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five.
Must be twenty one or older in Presidenton Arizona, Colorado,
or Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Virginia or eight ten and noler in Kentucky. Gambling problem
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off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Catch our next
(41:09):
episode of The Favorites live on Tuesday at one thirty
pm Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel, will cover the
whole NFL Week six board and announce our Week five
contest winner. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you
get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift till Tuesday.
(41:32):
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
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Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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