The Favorites - NFL Week 8 Betting Preview

This week the Dallas Cowboys visit the San Francisco 49ers in a primetime matchup with considerably less luster than many hoped in Week 1. Nevertheless, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss this and every other game on the board from a betting perspetive.  Can the Titans slow down the red hot Detroit Lions? Are the Dolphins worth betting again with Tua under center? And how impactful will a new quarterback be for Cleveland? 

We also get a recap of Week 7 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday, Week eight episode where we break down the
entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our execu decision,
our Simon says, start to narrow down the options for

(00:32):
our five faves to put in the Favorites podcast one
hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pickam Contest two and three
this past week. Once again, we won by betting on
the best teams with the best quarterbacks i e. Jared
Goff and Patrick Mahomes. We lost by betting on bad

(00:53):
team by a bad team in a trendy spot, and
by betting against a good defense in a train spot.
Lots of lessons, so many. In fact, my co host
is going to love this. I spent part of yesterday
categorizing our losses to see if I could find a

(01:15):
pattern in our decision making. And I did. I did.
I'm excited to share it live from our Tommy John
Home studios. I'm joined as always by my co host,
my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional Better So I'm
in Hunter.

Speaker 2 (01:32):
Hello, So I'm in gonna save you so much time chat.
It's pretty simple.

Speaker 3 (01:36):
We like home dogs, and the home dogs have been
getting killed. I mean, I think any bookmaker you talk to,
this has been what the worst two week run they've
had since legalization. I mean, every chalk favorites winning. So,
like I always say, it's we're barely keeping our head
above water. Right now, we are drowning, but we're avoiding
these zero to five weeks, which I am terrified of

(01:58):
because we never had one. And yeah, yeah, we luckily
have bet some chalk and that's what's winning. And we
talked about the smart sides we take, missing field goals, turnovers, refs,
all of it is not bouncing our way, and it'll turn.
Like I always say, we can't change what we do
check because once we change, it's going to go the
other way.

Speaker 2 (02:17):
So, yeah, if you've.

Speaker 3 (02:18):
Been taking these ugly dogs with us, have faith. This
is year six. We've never had a losing season. The
ugly dogs will come through. We're just in a little
bit of a rough patch.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
Well last night was another example. Right, we had the
box at plus three and a half. They start out
to nothing. They have a touchdown called back because of holding.
They have Mike Evans, one of the greatest receivers of
all time, drop a touchdown that is in his hands
in the end zone. Then Baker throws a pick, then
they miss a field goal. Next thing you know, it's

(02:50):
thirty four to ten. And even when that happened, like,
I made notes in my phone like that, I was
going to text you and and I just didn't. I'm like,
you cannot win a game if you're giving up seventeen
points in the first half, right, meaning you're giving away
seventeen points. And yet the reason we bet that game

(03:13):
last night is because we truly believed the Bucks would
always be in it and have a chance to back door.
Because the Ravens, by the way, have given up the
most points in the NFL in the second half this year.
That trend continued yesterday. There's one other team that's actually
tied with them fifteen point seven points per game. We're

(03:34):
going to talk about it. As you mentioned, Simon, road
favorites since Week five are sixteen and two. Geez, yeah,
Like we cannot win if road favorites dominated, because all
we do is bet ugly home dogs. Our results on
that trend. By the way, from this past week. We

(03:54):
bet against the Bengals, who covered. We bet against the Eagles,
who covered. We bet against the Ravens, who, of course
the one the one road favorite. We bet on New
York Jets. They did not win. Overall road teams sixty
one percent against the spread this season. That's the second

(04:17):
best win percentage through seven weeks in the wild Card Era.
In a moment, we'll recap the results of week seven
in our contest, will announce the winner of our big
weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet, be sure to
sign up for the Free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand
dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented by Bet three

(04:38):
sixty five. Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As
a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three
six five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers
get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Win you bet
five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars,
place a bet for five dollars to get two hundred

(04:59):
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
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It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five. Must be
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older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

(05:21):
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms Conditions
restrictions apply. Contest recap Real Fast Congratulations. First place winner
Brian G two one two. Brian went five and zero
nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker. He takes home the
max two thousand dollars weekly prize. Well done, Brian. As always,

(05:43):
our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup Award
to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.
Have you about the loads loser?

Speaker 2 (05:56):
He's a louis.

Speaker 3 (05:58):
About he still keeps on.

Speaker 1 (06:04):
This week. That goes to n L Miller ninety over
missed the tiebreaker by three hundred and sixty four yards.
L Miller email Matt Mitchell, our producer at podcast at
actionnetwork dot com to claim your fries all right week,
I said, I did a lot of research on Monday,

(06:25):
because it is we're having a weird year, like there
is something in the air when it comes to a
lot of these bounces, and it's been happening consistently, and
it's happening with all of these home dogs that we've
been betting on, and it's pretty excruciating. Right. Happened with
the Bengals and the Giants a few weeks ago in
the Meadowlands. Happened again the next night in the Meadowlands.

(06:47):
Happened again with the Bucks in Tampa Bay. So a
lot of the games, those the ones that we bet
that are ugly with bad qbs as dogs at home
teams we believe are undervalued by the market because of
underlying metrics. We've just been losing those games. The games
we've been winning are ones where we bet on good

(07:10):
quarterbacks and good teams who can overcome mistakes. So I
broke it down into four categories. You have no idea
I did this, So I'm excited to hear your response
to this. All right. I broke it down into good
teams slash public faves. That's one category of bets that
we've made. Bad teams slash good number slash historical trend

(07:31):
slash fade the public. That's the second category. Bad beats
is the third category, and then good reads, good analysis,
you know, good handicapping. The bet you wouldn't expect the
public to make, but we make it and it was
a good bet. So in the past, Simon, we've crushed
with the second category, those bad teams with a good

(07:52):
number back in the trend fading the public not surprising.
This year we've made the most bets in that category,
more than fIF fifty percent of our bets in that category.
Guess how many of those games I want to we
have won in that category this year.

Speaker 2 (08:12):
I would say half or maybe less than.

Speaker 1 (08:15):
How about one?

Speaker 2 (08:17):
Geez?

Speaker 1 (08:19):
We are one and sixteen in that category. Geeez? Is
that insane?

Speaker 2 (08:26):
Doesn't even sound real.

Speaker 1 (08:27):
It's like I have it in a spreadsheet. I'm not
even going to share it with you. I went through
the action app, I went through every game. I categorized
it one and sixteen. Oh my god, it is absurd. Yeah,
that tells you everything you to know about why we're struggling.
We've actually made the second most bets on the good team,

(08:50):
good number public category. We've won seven of those bets.
Three of them are on Detroit, two on Green Bay.
So that's interesting for today because those were two games
for this week we talked about Sunday. We've had six
games I would categorize as good reads finding value in
a team that is undervalued in the market, and then

(09:10):
we've had what I would call six bad beats. So
you know that one category is a real outlier and
explains everything about our season so far.

Speaker 3 (09:23):
To this NFL season, though, right like Carolina, they're awful.
People thought they'd be awful coming in. They are awful.
Patriots people said they'd be awful. They've been awful. They
don't cover.

Speaker 2 (09:33):
They're right on now.

Speaker 3 (09:34):
In Tennessee Titans, everyone said they'd be awful. They're an
awful team. So it is tough. We do like to
fade public opinion, and we get a lot of value
in the lines on those teams, and that has.

Speaker 2 (09:45):
Not shown up.

Speaker 3 (09:46):
I mean that statistically is insane. I can't believe that's
a real stat But we said it's going to go
the other way. That's the thing. It's like, you can't
overreact to it. It's such a long season. It's going
to eventually come another way. It's that we can't keep
chasing it. Clearly though, like I guess these really bad teams,
we got to really take a hard look at it
and be like, how bad do we want to bet
this bad team here?

Speaker 1 (10:07):
Yes and so, and now how much do we want
to make it part of the five? That's why, by
the way, I don't want to give suck.

Speaker 3 (10:13):
I love some ugly dogs this week, which I know
I don't want. I wish you even read me that
stack because now it's spooking me a little.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
It's I don't want to get over intellectual about it
because it's just betting. But this is the fun to me,
this is the fun. Part of doing this is trying
to understand the patterns and understand what are the decisions
we're making that are wrong, Like we don't want to lose,
We don't want to lose money. We want to win.
But it's not throwing darts like there is some analysis

(10:40):
that needs to be done. And clearly this year like
has been challenging. So if we don't do the underlying analysis,
we're not going to change our habits. And I do
think I do think I we can thread the needle
on this. I think I understand something that we'll talk
about that I think will influence some of our decision
making as we review these numbers. Have we leaned too

(11:03):
hard into trends at the tiebreakers in some of these games?
So I do want to I want us to be
thinking about that heading into overall. So far I talked,
actually I talked about this, the public trends and all
that kind of stuff. The one thing I will say
the public the past two weeks twenty two zero seven

(11:26):
and one against the spread, that is incredible, And teams
with sixty six percent or more of the tickets seventeen
oh and one, Well, that tells everything right there, because
we hate playing those teams. And yet here we are

(11:48):
Minnesota at the Los Angeles Rams. Rams are three point
dogs at home Thursday night. Lots of reasons to like
Minnesota in this spot, like even though it's Stafford, this
offensive line is a thirty first and pass block ranking
p pff. We know Brian Flores is going to be pressure.
Rams are bottom third and pass coverage as well. They

(12:08):
don't have a single corner in the top forty of
any coverage metrics going against Justin Jefferson home teams thirty
seven to fifty five against the spread since twenty nineteen.
And then we got the public road faves sixty one
percent against the spread the past two seasons.

Speaker 3 (12:26):
Yeah, this is gonna be pros versus jos. This is
going to be the professionals are on the Rams like
for a bunch of different reasons. The main one will be,
did we just see the blueprint? Chad the Detroit just
show everyone how you can attack this Flora's defense if
you have a run game, And Gush was a really
good run game the Rams. I mean, I think you
probably saw Williams had this crazy stat. I think he
scored in like nine or ten straight game.

Speaker 1 (12:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (12:48):
Yeah, And you know it's the same reason I like them.
When they're gonna play a Green Bay. It's like, you
can attack Green Bay if you can run the ball
like that really dictates the game. Well, they lose by
five points in that game. So I have the same
view year of this Minnesota team where you know, Sam
Darnold probably haven't given enough respect and love. Like you
go back and watch that Lions game. You played really
well and even on throws that weren't great, he was

(13:10):
started to have the best receiver in football and just Jefferson,
so like you know, he knows that and it went
in doubt when the pressures in his face. Just put
the ball up to him and just trust his receiver
to make a play. And that's really been the difference
of this Vikings offense this year. I mean, they've they've
been so good.

Speaker 2 (13:26):
So I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (13:27):
I'm very tempted to take Minnesota, especially after the loss,
but Cam Jane, Shed's to who I am. Last week I
gave out Denver because it was a good number. I
think there were two when we talked about it, and
it's like, if this was two and a half, I
probably would take Minnesota because that's a nice number. But
I'll be patient here. Just has to get to three
and a half. Who's betting the Rams with me, No
one but the Pros. So I'll be patient hopefully get

(13:50):
a better number. I might be getting Cooper Cup and
Puka back this week with the Rams, like they were
really smart not to waste them on that Raiders game,
just to hold them out for this matchup where I
just think, I don't know, it's a short week. Minnesota
played such a tough brutal game against Detroit. It feels
like a lot to ask them to turn around and
now go on the road and play this RAMS team

(14:11):
that you just said it like, if this was a
normal week, I probably would like the Viking. So I
think defensively there are things that can attack this RAMS
team with but being a short week, if it gets
up to three and a half chat, I'm probably go
n end up on this RAMS team.

Speaker 1 (14:24):
Yeah, I think at three and a half you do
take the Rams. I think at three it's either Minnesota
or a pass, because I think the real challenge here
is with these Thursday night games, the consistent overriding factor
beyond to any analysis and sort of any matchup analysis,
has been that the more talented team when there's less

(14:45):
time to prepare is the team that ends up winning
these games and winning it pretty handily. And there's no
doubting like Minnesota is a more veteran team, they are
a better team. They've got a veteran defensive coach going
against a rookie defensive coordinator. Obviously we love Matthew Stafford,
but that offensive line is terrible. So I do think

(15:08):
that Minnesota has a little bit of an advantage, so
a little different.

Speaker 3 (15:14):
Well, no, it's doubting that Minnesota is is much better
than a Rams, There's no question about it.

Speaker 1 (15:21):
All Right. We finally don't have a European game an
England game, so we can potentially put this next game
into the contest if we see fit. Miami is a
three point favorite against Arizona. This line was three and
a half. We pegged it on Sunday night and we
liked Arizona. It made no sense to us that because

(15:47):
of Tua, this line was as high as it was.
Since the game last night has come down to three,
trending towards two and a half based on what we
see with the juice, probably from the Cards win last night.
But I mean you said it the other day. Two
has been out for a month, so it's a lot
of credit for this Miami team to be all of

(16:12):
a sudden much better than it had been with Two
coming back.

Speaker 3 (16:19):
Yeah, I think from the professionals perspective, like a lot
of guys I talk to you that do like Miami.

Speaker 2 (16:23):
Here's it's the two at home. We always talk about this.

Speaker 3 (16:26):
They're a different team at home, especially when they play
teams that are below five hundred, right, Like historically two
in this offense they beat up on bad teams at
home in that sun. Arizona fits that description right, and
then you mix in Kyler Murray. I don't think he's
won back to back game chads and like two three years.

Speaker 1 (16:44):
I was kind of upset that they won last night
because I liked this at three and a half and
I was worried about like him winning last night to
me changes things a little bit. And he's also better
at home.

Speaker 3 (16:58):
We talked about, we talk about the time he's inconsistent.
He just he plays well and then he doesn't. Even
in that game last night, I know he did enough
to win the game, but it's like, man, is he
So he's just so inconsistent, and it's you know, at
what point did the excuses run out? Like this is
He's had a bunch of seasons under his belt. They
have all their weapons on offense, and at the end
of the day, it falls on Kyler. So I'm having

(17:20):
a tough time with this one because I want to I
want to take Arizona, but I know a lot of
really smart wise guys right now, like this Miami team
in this spot. So I'll have a better opinion for
it on Thursday.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
Right right now, I'm in decided, fyi.

Speaker 1 (17:32):
Evan Abrams is reporting that Diana Rassini of The Athletic
is reporting the Rams could trade Cooper Cup and are
willing to take on his full salary, so that could
have an impact on the Thursday game.

Speaker 2 (17:46):
The other suffer to the Browns.

Speaker 3 (17:50):
I know, right like, get let him, let him get
behind some type of the other offensive lineup, because I'm
with you, like Himba being behind that offense line of
the Rams. They're just it's only a matter of time
before he takes a bad shot.

Speaker 1 (18:00):
One hundred percent. Couple things I would say about the
Dolphins so that I'm not understanding to a play in
the first game. To your point, they get these teams
that aren't very good on the road in the Sun.
They barely beat the Jaguars. They needed a Jason Standers
last second field goal to beat the Jaguars, who turns

(18:21):
out are a terrible team. They beat him by a
field goal two is out the next game. Since then,
they have not scored more than sixteen points in a
game without Tua. Their best player on defense is Kalais Campbell,
who's about one hundred and eighty three years old and
they actually gave up thirty one points to the Tennessee Titans. Like,

(18:45):
this is a this is not a very good team,
So we're giving we're giving them a lot of credit.
And the one thing I'll say, I looked this up
yesterday too. This might make a difference. This could be
a very close game. We expect it to be a
very close game. Yeah, Miami is ranked thirty first in
the NFL in special teams. The Arizona Cardinals have two kickers,

(19:10):
two kickers, two kickers because Matt Prater was injured. That
rank in the top fourteen in terms of kicking according
to Pro Football Focus. Jason Sanders, Remember there are thirty
two teams in the NFL. Jason Sanders, the Dolphins kicker
thirty third in the NFL. He's already missed four field
goals this season. So just saying, yeah, a lot of

(19:33):
stuff not to like about Miami. Doesn't need to be
a pick right where.

Speaker 2 (19:37):
But like, again, if it's three and a half in contest,
how are we not tempted? That's the whole thing with this, Like.

Speaker 1 (19:41):
I'm totally tempted at three and a half, Like of
course am I already bet it. You can see it
in the app. I bet Arizona at three and a half.
All right, New York Jets at New England Patriots. This
is what we've gotten in trouble this year, right yeah,
backing a bad team, bad coach. This has been sort
of to me where we've made the mistakes. We've blindly

(20:02):
bet numbers that we think we have to bet and
haven't taken into account. How bad is the team? Do
they not have any discernible outstanding unit? Do they not
have good coaching? I'm not loving this New England team
right now, and I think we've been blinded by a
lot of different things. For the record, home Division dogs

(20:27):
three nine and one against the spread this year, nineteen
thirty one and three thirty eight percent the past two seasons.
So this trend that we love home division dogs isn't
exactly our friend right now.

Speaker 2 (20:43):
No, and shockingly, there's a lot of road favorites. I
do like this week, this spot here.

Speaker 3 (20:50):
Like this type of game where you know, if you
want to be mister Joe Public, you just take the
Jets money line and pair it up with I don't
know the Chargers were at home playing against uh, New Orleans, right, Like,
there's ways around it where you don't have to take
this seven, because yeah, instinctually, this is a lot of
points for a Jets team that is not that good,
and they have a bunch of weaknesses and one of

(21:11):
them is against the run, and the Patriots do want
to run the ball. So I'm with you, like, this
is not one of the dogs I love. But I
can see how guys have come in and bet this
Patriot's high because this number did touch seven and a half.

Speaker 2 (21:23):
Now, yeah, seven, So I see what they see on it.
But I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (21:27):
It's like there's other dogs I'd rather invest in right now,
and Drake May and this Patriots team they're just They're
just not one of them.

Speaker 1 (21:33):
So I I everything. It's weird sometimes, Simon, because you
and I are BFFs, and despite the generational age gap, Uh,
it's like we're in the same mind because I like,
I like how Drake May has been playing. I think
they're improved. I literally wrote in my notes the Jets

(21:53):
are not very good their secondary right now against a
rookie playing with Moxie is interesting as a matchup. I
think the Jets pass Rush has an advantage against this
O line, but the Patriots run game has an advantage
against the Jets rush d I lean, Pats, do not

(22:17):
think this is a top five number, a top five
game for us right now. Don't forget Rhode faves sixty
two percent against the spread this year. So I'm told
I see no advantage here. No, we're passing Atlanta Tampa
Bay Tampa Bay plus two and a half. Obviously, this

(22:37):
has moved five points since yesterday off of the Godwin injury,
off of the Mike Evans injury. I do feel like,
and we talked about this on Sunday, we screwed up
not fading Atlanta last week. It was the perfect spot.
We knew it was trending that way. I think we

(22:58):
got I think we just lost the forest for the
trees and the number a little bit thoughts here two
and a half now Atlanta is a two and a
half boy favorites.

Speaker 2 (23:10):
Supposed to take Atlanta.

Speaker 3 (23:11):
I mean we've just taken away the key to this
this team by Baker, right, Baker, as you know much
Flowers we want to give him.

Speaker 2 (23:19):
We know it's the Godwin Mike Evans effect.

Speaker 3 (23:22):
I mean, he's got a Hall of Famer in Mike
Evans as one of the best red zone threats ever.

Speaker 2 (23:26):
And then Godwin is just such a great possession receiver.

Speaker 3 (23:29):
Anytime Baker needs that third down completion, he's always looking
for Godwin like he's just such a weapon. That would
have been huge in this matchup, Like both these guys
would be amazing because we talk all the time. Alanda
does not have a pass rush, so we would have
Baker with time with his two receivers.

Speaker 2 (23:46):
It would have been great.

Speaker 3 (23:47):
But I think we're going to see a total transformation
of this team now that you know they're going to be,
you know, running with Bucky or running it with White,
like they're just going to be running with their two
headed monster backfield.

Speaker 2 (23:57):
And you know, I look on the flip.

Speaker 3 (23:59):
Side with a land coming off that brutal loss, this
has to be a bounced back spot for them, and
they know if they win this, I mean, the division
isn't theirs, but it is right like this, they would be.
Now they'd be up two to zero on this Bucks team,
and the Bucks of all these injuries, and you know this,
this is just a really nice spot to take Atlanta.

(24:19):
So I hate how much numbers moved, but it's still
under the key number of three. So I'm gonna take
the two and a half right now because I could
see this keep going up. It's just brutal bad luck
for this Bucks team, and I feel terrible every time
I talk about a team I like and I praise them,
it feels like all hell breaks loose.

Speaker 2 (24:35):
And they die out.

Speaker 3 (24:36):
So I literally bet them to be the one seed
last week at twenty two to one, and they're probably
fifty to one now to be the one seed NFC.
So I swear everyone out there, I'm not gonna talk
about any player on your team, mention your team nothing.
I will just strictly do week by a week. No
more future talk for me.

Speaker 1 (24:53):
The key for Godwin, and they talked about this on
the broadcast last night, has been his yards after the catch,
leading the NFL receivers in yards after the catch and
no other Bucks player. He had three hundred and thirty
five at the end of the game last night. No
other Bucks player had more than two hundred. No tight

(25:13):
end has one hundred. So to your point about the
third downs, that's critical. We saw it a couple of
times last night.

Speaker 2 (25:19):
It's such a big deal.

Speaker 1 (25:21):
That is that. The one scary thing and we need
to address this is the line has flipped. When the
line flips, it tends to favor the underdog. We're now
getting an underdog that is wounded at home. There is
sort of a you know, we're all, what's that.

Speaker 2 (25:39):
On a short week though, on a short week.

Speaker 1 (25:42):
And also I do think like there's there's a difference,
and I wish we should we could do this, and
we can't line flip because of injury and line flip
because of money, right right, And I think I do
think there's a there's a distinction there with very real difference.
I'm so excited to talk about this next game. I
think it has big balls potential.

Speaker 2 (26:04):
I listen man to say that, I'm proud of you.
It would be the massive understatement.

Speaker 1 (26:08):
Tennessee at Detroit Detroit minus eleven. We've had two double
digit favorites through seven weeks. Don't forget the first few
weeks of the year. First two months, the ever spread
was like four points, which is the Titans. It's been
in a generation. Currently, three double digits in week eight,
we're going to talk about Tennessee Detroit. We also had Baltimore,

(26:30):
Kansas City at Cleveland. It's come down. We had Kansas
City at Las Vegas. We'll talk about that. We talked
about this Sunday night, like we're going to bet the
Lions here. It was at twelve and a half eleven
and a half eleven, So we know whise guys are
betting on Tennessee. But double digit favorites at home past

(26:54):
five years, fifty four percent. And we can keep preaching
on the Lions right now. But this is not an
offense that sort of plays down to its opponent. The
offensive line is just too dominant, and they're going against
a team whose pressure rate is bottom third in the league.

(27:15):
They've blown first half leads and three of their five
losses in the second half. I mentioned this at the top.
They're the other team that is giving up sixteen points
per game that grows to nineteen points per game, last
in the league. Like I fear that, I do not
fear that Tennessee will keep it close. I think, like

(27:38):
the Bills, the Lions are more inclined to run away
with it in the second half. Simon, we're gonna bet
the Lions minus eleven.

Speaker 2 (27:49):
Really, you're going to guarantee this will be contest.

Speaker 1 (27:51):
I feel good about it right now.

Speaker 3 (27:53):
Yeah, I think we're in the same page ride like
the Lions. I said, I'm shocked this line wasn't fourteen.
I mean just they're all just humming in every way,
you know, betting this though that the only way we
lose is not Tennessee winning, it's Detroit beating themselves somehow. Right,
it's we finally get that bad golf game. I mean,
he's been the terminator of these last three four weeks.
Like he's just automatic killer every week, Like he doesn't miss,

(28:17):
makes the right read every time, always finds the open weapon.
And we talk coming the season, no team had them
better put together offense than this team, right, they just
nailed last year's drafts, getting Laporta and Gibbs on top
of you know what they already had. And this offense,
like it's just you're right, Like I'm trying to trying
not to scare myself off of it because this is
such a huge number.

Speaker 2 (28:37):
But we talked about these bad teams.

Speaker 3 (28:40):
Are just really bad right now, and I wish there
was some life I could take from Tennessee.

Speaker 2 (28:45):
Like I went back and watched that film against the Bills.

Speaker 3 (28:48):
We talk all the time, these bad teams just shoot
themselves on the foot, right, the dumb penalties like the turnovers,
the sloppiness on third downs, and then defensively, you're right
like they made a couple of business decisions against that
Bill team, and you could really tell in that second
half where it's like they kind of gave up once
they even when they got down ten or whatever it was,
it was just like they're totally checked out. So I'll

(29:09):
follow you on this one. I do love this Lion's team.

Speaker 2 (29:12):
It's just, you know, it just irks me to take
a big favorite, So I got to kind of push
that aside and just know that this is a good
number and it probably should be closer to fourteen.

Speaker 1 (29:21):
Dude, we hate taking big favorites, but we do think
the number should be much much higher, yeah, than eleven,
And it's come down and as much as we hate
doing it, that has been the side, not just this season,
but historically in the spot. You don't always take double
digit favorites. And we're going to talk about one later

(29:41):
on with Kansas City in Vegas, where we both agree
that we're not going to want to back Kansas City.
But this feels like a spot like it. This Lion's
team is great, and you know, we talked about this
on Sunday. Jared Goff was seventeen to one on Sunday
afternoon to win MVP. He's now eight to one. He

(30:03):
leads the league in completion percentage, he leads the league
in yards per attempt. He second in QB rating. He's
elite against pressure right now, which was the one Achilles heel.
He has the second most twenty plus yard passes. He
has a four game stretch where he's completing eighty three
and a half percent of his passes, which is the

(30:25):
greatest four game stretch in history. And I know not
all this can last. I can't, but I think when
your offensive line is this good and you've got a
game plan that is so focused on being physical and
pulling up safeties to protect against the run, there's something
that is more than just luck and timing here. It's

(30:49):
like there's substance foundational.

Speaker 2 (30:54):
It's fair.

Speaker 3 (30:55):
Just like you just said, though, we've been riding this
train for three four weeks in a row now, so
we do have to hop.

Speaker 1 (31:00):
Off the only reason we're winning anything right now it's true,
and I think there's a difference between selling high and
still being ascendant, Like this stock is ascendent to me. Yeah,
I don't think it's time to sell Green Bay at Jacksonville. However,
packers are four and a half. Tricky, tricky, tricky, tricky.

Speaker 2 (31:25):
Before I get I got a couple of calls about
this one.

Speaker 1 (31:28):
Tell me because we talked about a Sunday. Tell me
because I'm very curious right now.

Speaker 3 (31:32):
I'm missing something apparently, and that Jordan Love ain't right yet,
and there's something missing with this Green Bay team and
this is a letdown spot for them. And this Jaguars
team's not as bad as people perceive. They've had just
bad luck this year. YadA, YadA, YadA. I don't know
what to make of us because we're supposed to be
the jacks here. Oh yeah, but I'm just we've just
been burned. Like, honestly, this was going to be my

(31:52):
Simon says, but I found another game that Thank god,
I don't have to make it this one because it's just,
oh man, it's I'm having a hard time trying to
I don't mind betting this, I'm just having a tough
time trying to get their listeners to get on this
one with us, because you.

Speaker 2 (32:07):
Know, not all the time.

Speaker 3 (32:08):
Doesn't make sense that the numbers say this is the
right team to take in, these Jaguars team, and that
this is probably a good number, and that this GREENBA
Green Bay team has played a lot of just really
close games, right. They let teams hang around because their
defense hasn't really been as great as people perceived, and they've.

Speaker 2 (32:24):
Been relying on turnovers and you know it's tough here.
What are you thinking?

Speaker 1 (32:28):
I can't find the answer when we go through these.

Speaker 2 (32:35):
You know you're supposed to do right, Yeah, yeah, I mean.

Speaker 1 (32:37):
We have to bet Jacksonville, But like I want, I'm
trying really hard to think about what's making us lose
without overthaw.

Speaker 3 (32:50):
But I want to bet the Packers honestly, just because
I do toolost couple of weeks.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
Dude. I want to bet the Packers because they're the
better team, yea, with a better coach and a better quarterback.

Speaker 2 (33:01):
And when we've been there flying from England.

Speaker 1 (33:04):
Yeah, and they're not flying from England and we've been losing.
It's because we are getting so enamored with what we
are thinking is a point a point and a half
of value and believing that.

Speaker 2 (33:13):
There's three and a half, you're geting to free point
here exactly.

Speaker 1 (33:17):
And we believe there that there is something we're not
seeing that makes this team undervalued. And I don't know
what it is, and I know that the market, meaning professionals,
believe in the Jags. We've seen the number move from
five down to four and a half. The Packers have
beaten up on bad teams except for Houston and CJ.
Shroud had his worst game ever, literally worst game ever

(33:39):
as an NFL quarterback in one plus seasons, through for
less than one hundred yards for the first time.

Speaker 2 (33:45):
Because Jordan lovet turnovers, they stayed in the game exactly.

Speaker 1 (33:49):
And like when we're losing, it's because we're betting bad
teams at what we think is a good neighbor who
number who can't overcome turnovers. And so this season, this
game fits the mold of the games that we should
bet the public road favorite and the Packer as chalky

(34:13):
as it gets.

Speaker 2 (34:15):
It is.

Speaker 3 (34:15):
But again we talked like this, I don't know this
team right now. They've struggled to stop the run in
Green Bay, and I do think that the Jaguars have
found something in Tank Bigsby, right, They've made the switch
at running back and he's been an absolute monster. Like
this guy runs like Marshaun Lynch. He runs so hard,

(34:36):
and that to me has been a difference for this
team these last couple of weeks. You know, the Jaguars
have looked better, if you could even say that. But
that's my fear here is it's like, am I falling
too much in love with them? Being up on a
bad Patriots team? Now they're about to come crash on
the Earth and you are a legit playoff team. Well, see, brother,
I'm telling you I got Usually I don't get calls
after our slaying that game. I had four different pros

(34:58):
calling me up and be like, don't take Green Bay
this week. And usually I'd be like, you know, on
their side, but I'm with you right now where it's
like public is king right now, like they're having a
nice run and it's like the books, they've had some
bad numbers and maybe I'm misreading this one. This is
another bad number by the book, but it is extremely tempting.
You're getting four and a half right now in Green Bay,

(35:19):
So yeah, this is definitely a game we're gonna have
to revisit on.

Speaker 1 (35:22):
Thursday, so we'll get sharp calls about this. I'm sure
I'll give you one more trend that leans Jacksonville. So
all the public trends for this year, obviously that we've
mentioned are in favor of the Packers, the road favorites.
All that is in favor of the Packers. One trend
that is in favor of the Jags. Home dogs are

(35:44):
more than field goal off of a win of fourteen
plus points sixty three percent the past twenty years.

Speaker 2 (35:52):
There we go, No, we know this is the spot
to take the Jaguars.

Speaker 3 (35:56):
Like the numbers everything, it's like, but this, like you
just said, it's a wonky year. I mean, I can't
get over that one in sixteen stat It's like, fucking
ay man, it's making me rethink everything I do.

Speaker 1 (36:07):
I know, how do you think I felt yesterday? It dude, yeah,
blue my mind. I'm like, this can't be right. So
then I did it again, like something's not right here this,
I did it again, double checked one in sixteen. It's insane.

(36:31):
It is how many how many games we bet this year?
Forty games we put into the contest, thirty five games,
whatever it is seven times five. Seventeen of those are
the bets we would always make, and we've lost sixteen
of them.

Speaker 2 (36:43):
Now they're killing us.

Speaker 1 (36:46):
You know it's not killing me. Right now. I mentioned
to you at the top of the show that we
are coming to you live from our Tommy John Home studios.
Great games start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes
the rates not only great underwear. I'm wearing Tommy John
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(37:08):
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(37:29):
percent off your first order right now at Tommy John
dot com slash favorites. Save twenty five percent at Tommy
John dot com slash favorites. It's all right Indianapolis, at Houston,
we bet the Colts at six and a half. We
hit it on Sunday night. I'm leaning an exact decision here.

(37:50):
So if you're if this is where you want to
go to, Simon says, okay, EXAC decision, Get Indianapolis Colts.

Speaker 2 (37:59):
Good choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you
have your honors? Text to cut number? Executive decision.

Speaker 1 (38:08):
It's a scary one. We're going to be sweating this.
It's going to be the end of the game. We're
going to need Anthony Richardson to do something that he
never does, which is be accurate or fling that miracle
fifty yard pass to Alec Pierce for a touchdown. C J.
Stroud has not looked right without Nico Collins. He went

(38:28):
out in Week five in that Buffalo game after he
scored a touchdown. The past two games have been on
the road, but c J. Stroud in one of those
games through for fewer than one hundred yards, worst game
of his career. His QB rating in those two games
is about forty five, no touchdowns, completion percentage dropped considerably

(38:56):
like unlike the Pats. To me, this fits the bill
of betting the underdog that is ugly. I think we've
got a really good coach in Shane Stichen, and I
also think we do have a dominant unit that favors

(39:17):
the Colts. Their offensive line, their run blocking is the
best in the NFL, and the Texans rush defense is
just not very good. And we might get Jonathan Taylor
back this week, so I feel a little bit better
about it. Home Division faves seven and eight this year
forty five percent since twenty fifteen. So this is one

(39:40):
of those we'd always bet that I actually feel okay about.

Speaker 2 (39:46):
I want you to feel better than okay, So we'll
see if we get you there by Thursday.

Speaker 3 (39:49):
But yeah, this is a game where I really need
Jonathan Taylor to be back because that, to me is
a big deal. That's the thing we've seen used to
struggle with this year is the run. He's one of
the best running backs in football. We need him, like
we've seen that there is a difference offensive when he
is in there with Anthony Richardson, they can do that
read option like when you have to count for Richardson
running and Jonathan Taylor, that's a pretty potent one two punch.

Speaker 2 (40:10):
Running the ball.

Speaker 3 (40:11):
And you know, historically in his young career, we've seen
CJ do well against this Colts defense, but that's with
Nico Collins like Nico has been a killer of this
Colts defense. Him not being there, to me is the
biggest deal. Like he's the reason they've always won or
kept these games close for Houston in the last two years.
It's like that combo of CJ and him attacking deep.

(40:34):
It's been huge. It's not been the same since he's
been out right, like Tank Dell, Stefan Diggs, they don't
hit the same as Nico Collins. They don't get open
like he does, so which is crazy. I think just
two years ago that guy was you could have got
Nico Collins for a bag of chips. Like now we're
talking about him as one of the best deep threats
in all football. So this matchup, you're talking about us

(40:54):
just playing the number, and that's the definition of what
we're doing here, Like we're trusting the number.

Speaker 2 (40:59):
You have to take this. This is same kind of
thing where the cold snow.

Speaker 3 (41:03):
This is for their season and you know they they
dropped that first one, and like we joked about, we
know we got a little lucky, right like Richardson, Oh yeah,
he cleped completed less than like three percent of his
passes in that game. And it just somehow me and
Chad still covered that two and a half number, So
a little bit of rushing. Well, let here Chad spinning
the spinning the chamber again, hoping we get lucky with

(41:23):
this one again. But I do like the matchup for them.
We talk about and we've nailed this with CJ. Right,
you back him as a.

Speaker 2 (41:30):
Dog he covered last week, and you fade him as
a favorite. I mean, he just has struggled as a favorite,
especially as a big favorite. So yeah, this is.

Speaker 3 (41:39):
A tough one to swallow because we went the six
and a half. It was six and a half. The
pros came and they bet it down to the six.
I don't mind taking the six, but I could easily
see this game landing on six. It just feels like
this is gonna be that close of a number that
it could get there. So my mindset of it though,
is I could see it keep going down. That's why
I think you're a smart taking the summer now. I

(42:00):
could see this easily getting down to four and a
half by kickoff. It just feels like it's too inflated
right now, and it could move with the Jonathan Taylor
and number.

Speaker 2 (42:07):
With Jonathan Taylor being cleared to play.

Speaker 1 (42:10):
Yeah, to me, this is this is where the coaching
comes into play. And we've loved betting Shane Steichen year
plus that he's been in the league. The culture five
and one against the spread this year. They grind these
games out, and he's really smart when it comes to
play calling. Even this past week. You know, you look
at that Dolphins game. They're patient, they stay in it,
they don't panic, they make play after play, they take

(42:33):
advantage of mistakes, like they got a winning record that
like they're not that far behind the Texans. Like if
they beat the Texans all of a sudden, like they
might be tied for the lead in the AFC South.
So it's a it's an interesting matchup, interesting game, A
lot a lot of sort of narratives in this game.

(42:54):
Go cults the next one tougher Cleveland and Baltimore. I mean,
obviously there is just complete chaos in Cleveland. This game
has dropped considerably. I think it was about ten and
a half than ten, nine and a half now it's
nine at most books. It's actually the biggest pros Joe's

(43:15):
split on the board right now. How do you want
to play this? I have it as a pass by
the way, man.

Speaker 3 (43:24):
I'm passive, but where you're supposed to take Cleveland here
at home? I mean, they can't tell me replacing Watson
makes this team a worse team. Like he was one
of the worst quarterbacks we've seen this season. And that's
just not by your eyes, that's epa per play all.
This is going to be correctly historically terrible, So worse.

Speaker 1 (43:43):
Than worse than JaMarcus Russell.

Speaker 3 (43:47):
So don't we get a bump, Like, don't we get
a bump from you know, hopefully jamis our guy, the
motivator of men, but Chad knows we've had a long
history of Betton Winston and you don't know what you're
gonna get, Like we could have a Winston day where
he's terrible, but I don't know. I like this match
for him against his secondary, Like this is a pretty

(44:07):
good match for him to be able to put the
ball down the field.

Speaker 2 (44:09):
And we already talked about this.

Speaker 3 (44:11):
Ravens team has struggled to close out teams despite them
being this incredible running team, and you know, they had
to have a bunch of little bounces go their way
last night for them to cover that number. Like I
still can't believe we didn't get that back door. I
thought for sure we were gonna get there. But the
same view here, You're right, like you know, the divisional
home dogs have not been hitting like we're used to.

Speaker 2 (44:31):
I'm a sucker for him. This feels like an inflated
number ten and a half.

Speaker 3 (44:36):
It would have been a no brainer. You're right, it's
down to nine in most books. I'm not gonna make
people take a bad number.

Speaker 1 (44:40):
Here, Matt Mitchell, cue the music. The last thing I'll
say about this game, we are going to if we
bet the Browns go against the road faves the past

(45:04):
two years sixty one percent against the spread. It just
I know we want to bet it. Is it contest worthy?
I don't know. I don't know. Here's a really interesting
game to me. Philadelphia at Cincinnati.

Speaker 2 (45:18):
Yeah, this game.

Speaker 1 (45:19):
Discussed it on Sunday night. It was at two. It's
moved up to two and a half. Actually got up
to three at some point Monday night into this morning.
I saw it this morning at three. Even though the
majority of the tickets are on the Eagles. I will
not be fooled by the Eagles win over the Giants.
I know that statistically the Eagles run game has a
massive advantage over the Bengals rush defense. But I do

(45:43):
think the Bengals passing offense has all of the edges
over the Eagles pass d and while the Eagle but
the Bengals defense isn't very good. They're actually good at
two things. They're good at defending the pass on play action,
and they're good at defending long ball, which is really
how the Eagles can win games, especially with Aj Brown back.

(46:05):
So to me, I'm back and Joe Burrow is a
short favorite.

Speaker 3 (46:08):
It's fair I gotta read on this one. Bengals demir
just a bad team that's been lucky and fortunate in
their wins.

Speaker 2 (46:16):
How many wins do they have this year?

Speaker 1 (46:17):
Chad three, the two or three? Three?

Speaker 3 (46:21):
And in those wins against these bad teams that they beat,
have you had any confidence in this team?

Speaker 1 (46:27):
I have.

Speaker 3 (46:30):
That's why it's like it's I'm just having a tough
time making this one of our five where it's like
I get where you're coming from. You're right, Like, I
like Fine hurts too on the road, especially as an underdog.
He's not performed well on the trends historically. It's a
nice spot to take them, but it's just a bad
Bengals team, and you know, I just have a lot
of questions right now about them, Like I still can't
believe we didn't cover last week. And that's what I'm

(46:53):
fearful of right now, is they're getting a flukey bump
here where at least the Eagles. You know, you can't
say he dominated that game against the Giants. You really
can't say that for that Bengals game, Like they just
they let teams hang around too much. So yeah, if
this was three, I'd probably end up taking the Eagles.
But at two and a half, two, I just don't
have a read on this one.

Speaker 1 (47:12):
It's rare that you pass on a game.

Speaker 2 (47:15):
I won't pass on.

Speaker 3 (47:16):
I'll eventually get to a spot where I'll bet whatever
my model says. But right now, like you know, it
should be minus three, so I think I should take
the Bengals. It's just, man, they just have looked so bad.
It's crazy, like just defensively everything about them, Like you said,
you can run it on them, and that's what the
Eagles want to do. So I'm with you, though, It's
like I know, in.

Speaker 2 (47:37):
The back of my mind I probably should take this
Bengals team here at a good number two and a half.

Speaker 1 (47:41):
I like lou An Arumo. I think they're going to
turn it around. I think they've had injuries, They've brought
in new players who are getting adjusted to the system.
He'll he'll find his spots against the Egos. He'll dial
up the exact right blitz at the exact right time.
And I'm also betting, by the way, it's going to
be a close game. I do believe Evan McPherson from

(48:03):
sixty yards is a pretty good opportunity to cover a
two to two and a half point spread. That's fair
Buffalo with Seattle this one. Seattle's a three point dog
at home. I'm completely torn on this one. So if
you have strong opinions, fire away, because I got I
have no edge that I can see in the number,

(48:27):
Like it's to me, it's lined accurately.

Speaker 2 (48:31):
Yeah, and it's another game again.

Speaker 3 (48:32):
I was gonna make Simon says, but the DK metcalf news,
that's what's honestly scared me off. Like that's such a
big deal of taking him away from this offense.

Speaker 2 (48:40):
But I like Seahawks.

Speaker 3 (48:42):
I like plus three at home, and you know we
talked a little bit earlier today, Jef. I mean, and
you about Josh Allen, and you know, people asking why
he's not the main guy for MVP. He's lost the
good teams, like he lost to Houston, he lost to
this Ravens team, and he's beat up on bad teams.
Do we think Seattle he was leading the NFC West
right now? Are they a bad team? I don't think so,

(49:03):
but I don't know how.

Speaker 2 (49:04):
Good they are.

Speaker 3 (49:05):
That's the fear here. It's like they're kind of an
in between team where it's like we think they're all right,
but you don't really believe in them, Like we don't
really think they're gonna actually win this division. They're better
than the forty nine ers, but they could, like they
stay healthy and things keep breaking their way.

Speaker 2 (49:21):
They're not that bad of a team.

Speaker 3 (49:22):
So I'll take the three because I do think offensively
they can attack this Bill's defense. And you know, at
the end of the day, Josh Allen has to start
turning the ball over. This is fucking crazy at this point,
Like are we all going crazier?

Speaker 2 (49:35):
I'm going crazy about it.

Speaker 3 (49:36):
It's like this guy has just been total, totally different
this year, not forcing the ball in the red zone,
and I think we're obviously due for Hi to have
a couple of turnovers. I also think this is gonna
be one of the bigger public plays of the week.
I just can see the public coming and really heavy
on this Bills team after that massive win last week.

Speaker 2 (49:55):
So be patient. Might be able to get us a
three and a half on this Seahawks number.

Speaker 1 (50:01):
I'm looking to see what the betting percentages are right
now on this game. It looks like, yeah, we got
it's interesting fifty eight percent of the tickets, but eighty
six percent of the money, which tells you a little
bit that when there's that much the wise guys are
coming in. I'm Buffalo right now as well. Is what

(50:23):
that says to.

Speaker 3 (50:23):
Me, Big Andrew Dedica. I mean, that is definitely a
big deal for that offense and what they want to do.
But it's honestly, do you really believe in this Bills team? Because,
like I just said, they've struggled against good teams, but
they've dominated bad teams.

Speaker 2 (50:38):
Definitely an interesting matchup.

Speaker 1 (50:39):
So where do you think of Seattle? That's really honestly,
New Orleans is visiting the Los Angeles Chargers gave one
away their seven and a half point favorites at home. Look,
this is a pro joe game in favor of the Saints.
The wise guys are betting the Saints here. I think
the key question is does anyone think the Chargers can

(50:59):
cut a seven point spread? Because the Saints they're a
train wreck?

Speaker 2 (51:07):
Right?

Speaker 1 (51:07):
You know? You know I love to read Bill Barnwell.
He did a column yesterday about the teams that are
performing worst in the NFL, whose situation is the worst
going forward? And you know, he talked about the Giants,
he talked about the Panthers, and he talked about a
couple other teams, the Titans. He also talked about the Saints.

(51:28):
His conclusion was that the Saints were actually in the
worst scenario between their cap space, between their performance, between
the pieces they have in house. It's hard to find
a lot to like about this team right now.

Speaker 2 (51:44):
I know.

Speaker 3 (51:44):
And the books were smart to make it this high
of a number, because it makes you tempted to take
the Saints team just because who are the Chargers to
get to this many points?

Speaker 2 (51:52):
Right?

Speaker 3 (51:52):
And it makes me think back that when they played
the Panthers, Remember that that was a huge spread and
they dominated them, so I'm not get.

Speaker 2 (52:00):
Sucked into it.

Speaker 3 (52:00):
I'll actually take their Chargers here. If there's a couple
of sevens out there, I just go grab the seven.
But I told you're gonna be super chocky. This is
an easy team for you. Just take their money line
and it's a desperate team like the Jets money line,
and put them together like there's a lot you can
do with that and try to avoid this spread number.
But for this show where we only pick the spread,
I'm gonna I'm gonna go with the Chargers here. It's

(52:21):
just I'm not gonna get sucked in by their temptation.
I think the Chargers defense, hopefully get Bosa back, there'll
be a difference maker. And then offensively, they had no
receivers in that game against the Cardinals, so hopefully maybe
get a couple more guys back on the receiving corps
and that's gonna be the difference.

Speaker 2 (52:36):
Right. Like we've seen Herbert as much praised in Love,
we would want to get him. You can't go out
there with just guys off the street like he needs,
Like you know, Jalen Rager when he caught that ball,
I don't know if you saw that he fumbled out
of the back of the end zone. Yeah, it's just
like that's when you know you're down the badest of battle.
You got Jalen Rager in there making those kind of plays.
So yeah, it's it is tempting the Saints, So I'm

(52:59):
not gonna get sucked in. I'll take the Chargers here.

Speaker 1 (53:01):
Jalen Rager the receiver drafted by the Eagles instead of
Justin Jefferson.

Speaker 2 (53:06):
Thanks, Chad.

Speaker 1 (53:07):
Don't forget. It's a classic. It's a classic clip in
the social medias. Is the Vikings draft room going crazy
when they realized the Eagles took Jalen Rager instead of
Justin Jefferson.

Speaker 2 (53:23):
It's crazy. And Minnesota has been to a super Bowl
since then. Oh wait, that's the Eagles. Sorry, wow, Yeah,
I'm not better.

Speaker 1 (53:31):
Jesus coming after me a little bit. All right, Chicago Bears,
there we go. You one and a half point favorites
against the Washington Commanders on the road.

Speaker 2 (53:46):
And would you say Sunday night, Chad.

Speaker 1 (53:48):
I said, on Sunday night.

Speaker 2 (53:50):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (53:51):
I said it on Sunday night. I was looking at
the numbers. We go over this on the Sunday show,
watch it in the app, watch it on YouTube. If
you're not this is what you missed. The Bears were
one and a half point underdogs on Sunday night. I
was so astonished by this and so distracted. I tried
betting it during the show, and it was off the

(54:12):
board at two of the three books here in Connecticut.
I got it at one and a half at one
of the books before it came off the board again
and then reopened with the Bears at two and a half.
Because of the Jade and Daniels news, right like, this
was supposed to be Caleb and Jayden and two quarterbacks
who are doing incredibly well as rookies one and two
in the draft. We don't know he's week to week.

(54:34):
It could be Marcus Mariota instead of Jade and Daniels.
That's why the numbers moved, Like should we be trying
to middle this right now?

Speaker 2 (54:45):
I as gonna say, you definitely have that option.

Speaker 3 (54:48):
I'm not gonna do anything yet with this because I'm
just hoping that this does get up to three and
then I'll hit try to hit the middle. But you're right,
like it's tempting already at two and a half. We
already talked about how key of a number two is.
But yeah, I told you I like the Bears just
because of their defense in this matchup. So even at
minus two and a half, if you missed the party,

(55:08):
I still don't think that's a bad number to grab
his sbarraste if it is Marcus Mariota. Like we talked
about all the regression that was coming for that that team,
and you know Washington where they were nine for nine
on fourth downs.

Speaker 2 (55:21):
That's not sustainable.

Speaker 3 (55:24):
They basically every time on third down that'd say it was,
you know, third and seven, he wouldn't just get the
first down Daniels, He'd get like twenty five to thirty
yards either passing or running the ball.

Speaker 2 (55:35):
It was just so extreme. We knew it was gonna
come back down.

Speaker 3 (55:38):
And you know, when Mariota came in, the Panthers already
giving up on that point, right they were down twenty
to nothing. He is just bad, Like there's a reason
he is a backup where uh, he makes the wrong reads,
he's inconsistent, he holds onto the ball for too long,
and his first thing, even though he's been in the
league this long, his first read is always to run

(55:59):
the ball. He just wants to run the ball. And
I do think you guys can QB spy him just
there's just ways. I do think the Bears tackle and
then offensively, this is a great matchup like Washington defense
by no, it means is good. Like the reason they've
been good this year is they've had big, big leads
where they can just rush the like rush the QB right,
That's been the key for them. It's not getting be

(56:20):
the same here for this Bears matchup. So it's stinks
coming in honestly, Like the look ahead, I was like, oh,
we'll get a nice number back in this Jayde Daniels
team against this overhype Bears team. Now Bears coming off
of buye into this game. To me, it's all Bears
right now. It's just a nice break for them. So
I would take the Bears now in minus two and
a half before this moves up to three. I can
just see this keep going up, especially once we get

(56:43):
official news Jayden Daniels out. It's like this, This feels
like by Sunday, this is a three and a half number.

Speaker 1 (56:49):
Interesting. I did not see that coming.

Speaker 3 (56:52):
I wanted to be on Washington but I just I'm
more I watch Mariota, especially when I watch old tape
of them from the past two years. I'm just like, man,
the there ain't like this guy.

Speaker 2 (57:01):
I went to McVeigh and got fixed. This is no
Baker situation. There is no fixing this Mariota all right.

Speaker 1 (57:09):
Well, based on that, here's what I know in the
past forty eight hours since the games ended on Sunday.
So less than that, I know that I've spent part
of my day reviewing our results for the per seven
for the first seven weeks and seeing the one area
where we are fifteen games below five hundred that is

(57:30):
basically the difference in our season. And I know now
that you've spent time watching past video of Marcus Mariota,
which says everything about how miserable our days have been
in the past twenty four I loved it to forty
eight hours. In addition to watching the box giveaway a

(57:51):
game and by the way, not changing our pick to
the Cardinals only because we knew as soon as we
did that we lose the Cardinals and win the Bucks.
So it's been a roller coaster of emotions. And I
agree with you, by the way, I loved it too,
as like physically painful and as much of a nightmare
as it was to see it. I love kind of

(58:13):
knowing the answer. So I'm with you. We're Gluttons. Carolina
at Denver, Carolina last and pressure rate last and sack right.
The worst defense in the NFL since two thousand and
seven when it comes to points allowed per play. Only
two defenses overall that have been worse in the past

(58:34):
five years twenty nineteen Falcons twenty twenty Raiders Denver.

Speaker 2 (58:40):
Don waste time on it.

Speaker 1 (58:41):
Okay, numbers I supposed to take.

Speaker 3 (58:43):
The Panthers don't even fucking listen to me and Chad,
listen to the guy on twitterroom messages me every week.

Speaker 2 (58:48):
Panthers are now one and six against the spread.

Speaker 1 (58:51):
Let's get to it. Let's get to it. We haven't
discussed this. You've said you had a couple different options
for Simon says. I have a feeling this is going
to be it. It's in the city at Las Vegas.
The Raiders are at ten. It moved from nine and
a half and back to ten. Yeah, take it away.

Speaker 3 (59:10):
So I going to remember that video of that Chiefs
team when the Bears traded up and passed on taking
my homes and took mitche or.

Speaker 2 (59:19):
No, I won't talk about that video. I'm just messing
with No.

Speaker 3 (59:23):
We're people hate it. We're we gotta take the Raiders here.
This is way too big of a number.

Speaker 2 (59:27):
This is no.

Speaker 3 (59:30):
I I got number one for if Simon says, just
because I do think Chad, this might keep going up,
Like I would not be shocked if this goes above
ten and a half, just because it's all Chiefs money.
Like you look in the app right now, it's just
so much cheaps money. And you know this is the
week of ten point teasers, right everyone's gonna do with
the lines. They're gonna do whatever Denver and then they'll

(59:51):
take the Chiefs and their three teams ten point teaser.
It's one of these guys is going to be the
break in the chain. And I we talked about. I
just think the Raiders here. It's a set up, prime
spot for an undefeated team and the Chiefs to lose
a game like this just feels like the type of
game they lose. Does it not make sense that this
terrible Raiders team two of their wins this year would
be against the Chiefs and the Ravens. That's just how

(01:00:13):
stupid football usually is, so matchup wise.

Speaker 1 (01:00:17):
Except this year. It's that stupid except this year. I know.

Speaker 3 (01:00:22):
But the Raiders are not the Patriots and the Titans, right,
we can agree on that that they do have some
talent and the coaching is a little bit better than.

Speaker 2 (01:00:30):
All of that.

Speaker 1 (01:00:31):
Yes, but yes, but yeah, they're terrible. I look at
this and I see this as the exact kind of game.
We have lost sixteen times already this year. It's a
number that we historically like. Yeah, it's the spot where
we think we have an advantage against the public.

Speaker 2 (01:00:51):
We do.

Speaker 1 (01:00:52):
We're betting on a combination, not a winning combination this year.
Bad coaching, bad quarterback, without standout unit, like a team
that doesn't really.

Speaker 2 (01:01:03):
Have Rock Bowers is a standout unit.

Speaker 1 (01:01:05):
So I'm going to get to that. I'm going to
get to that. But like they we we were supposed
to like their receivers. They've lost DeVante Adams, jakoben Myers
is out. We were supposed to like their defensive line.
Max Crosby, Christian Wilkins is out. Minshew didn't even play
the whole game last week. Four turnovers, including a fumble
return for a touchdown. They have ten turnovers in the

(01:01:28):
past three games, sixteen through the first seven. That's four
more than any other team in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (01:01:34):
More than there's a reason that numbers ten. What's that,
So there's a reason this number is ten.

Speaker 1 (01:01:39):
Yeah, well exactly. But here's the problem. Nineteen percent of
their drives and in a turnover twenty eighth and third
down conversion rate, Like, this is a team that cannot
stay on the field and does not hold its possessions year,

(01:02:01):
so it's hard for them to score. And then like
they make wacky coaching decisions. Last week it worked out
in favor of betters. But Antonio Pierce goes for a
field goal twenty fifteen, you know, like he gets the
ball back, but no, stupid. Yeah, so there is one
salvation and so this is this. I'm glad you brought
it up. Brock Bauers is having an other worldly season,

(01:02:26):
like most catches by a rookie tight end since two
thousand and Look, the Chiefs cannot defend tight ends. Nope, Kittle, Gileskie,
Mike Leski for the Bengals, Isaiah likely. They all had
huge games one hundred yards.

Speaker 2 (01:02:43):
It's only weakness. What's that It's the only weakness defensively, it's.

Speaker 1 (01:02:48):
The only weakness. But is it enough? Like, it's not
like the Chiefs haven't been covering even when giving up
huge yardage and Mahomes. While he's terrible at a number
this big, he's actually nine six and two the past
two seasons, so he's trending upward as a favorite of
three or more. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:03:08):
My view of it, though, is just even a bunch
of outside the numbers, just the spot, right, This is
such a letdown spot for this Chiefs team. After that
emotional forty nine ers on the road win, now they're
on the road again. Unfortunately, there is zero home field
advantage for Las Vegas. There will be more Chiefs fans.
We all know that, right, That's just the way that
stadium is. It is like the out of town fans come,

(01:03:30):
they buy the home fans tickets and it's a party
for a week for them.

Speaker 2 (01:03:34):
Right.

Speaker 3 (01:03:35):
So obviously that's already we're losing a point and a
half of home field. There's no home field here, so
I get you're coming from. It's just Mahomes and his turnovers.
I just it's hard for me to grasp them winning
back to back games by double digits. They're just not
this team we're used to of them just beating the
crap by These teams run away with it, Right, They're
able to have teams keep it close just because them

(01:03:58):
themselves are hard to stay insistent. Right, He's top three
receivers are out of this game. It's that has to matter,
Like that has to.

Speaker 2 (01:04:06):
Matter for this Chiefs team. So I'm with you, chat.

Speaker 3 (01:04:08):
If the public hadn't done so well these past two
weeks and you hadn't given me that crazy number about
us being one sixteen on this exact pick, this would
be an absolute smash spot for you. But that's another
reason I'm not making it. Simon says, I'm getting a
little wiser and not just blatantly making these home divisional
dogs my favorite bet.

Speaker 1 (01:04:25):
Yeah. Well that, by the way, That's all I want
us to do is have that conversation, like if we're
going to do this, we might as well take it
seriously and like learn about how we do it for
this show, and like this this would have been a
no brainer EXEC decision or Simon says, or big balls,
yeah pick. I'm a feeling we're trying to be smarter
about it. Sunday and Night Football Dallas, San Francisco. San

(01:04:48):
Francisco is a four and a half point favorite.

Speaker 2 (01:04:51):
The Cowboys are pro Football's glamourgie, dynamic, progressive, and spectacular.
Simon says, give me Dallas Cowboys four and ad gotta
do it. We do what Simon say pretty right now
has lost McCaffrey a yuk and I think Samuel is

(01:05:14):
in the hospital with what's he what's he have?

Speaker 1 (01:05:17):
Do you know Deebo has pneumonia? That's the report?

Speaker 2 (01:05:20):
Geez yeah. Looking at this matchup, I wanted to be
on the forty nine ers. This was going to be
a great bounce back spot, especially again to the Cowboys
team that we all agree. You know, they struggle against
the run. That's what this Horner's team wants to do.

Speaker 3 (01:05:32):
But now you've kind of made it that it's all
on prety shoulders and we've seen him now struggle with that,
right with not just with the turnovers, him not having
his guys there. It's a big deal. So to me,
this number has I moved enough. I think this gets
down to three three and a half by kickoff. It's
just a nice spot to back this Dallas team and

(01:05:54):
in a matchup that beforehand was bad for their defense.
Now I actually kind of like it, and you know,
we might actually get a couple of guys back for
them defensively. So just trying to be ahead of the
line movement here. We've already seen it open. What was
at six?

Speaker 2 (01:06:07):
I think Chris gave it out.

Speaker 1 (01:06:09):
We saw it like Sunday night. Raybon Uh put in
the app that he got Chris. Raybond posted that he
got it at six and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:06:19):
That five and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:06:20):
We only saw the five and a half, and I still.

Speaker 3 (01:06:23):
Don't think it's moved enough off all those injuries, Like
that's that's a big deal of this offense.

Speaker 2 (01:06:28):
That really is.

Speaker 3 (01:06:29):
So yeah, Cowboys to keep it close here? How do
you not like Doak to keep these games close? Like
it's just we've seen it this season, even that Pittsburgh game,
like a game I counted him out.

Speaker 2 (01:06:39):
He's able to keep teams in close matchups. So yeah,
I like this for this Dallas team, this matchup.

Speaker 1 (01:06:46):
Wise, last game wen I foot the New York Giants
at Pittsburgh Steelers. I just want to remind I want
to give people heads up. We will have a very
special in season guest later this week, well known person.

(01:07:11):
You have likely followed this person on social watched this
person on television, Listen to this person's very popular podcast
that happened to be a big fan of the New
York Giants. We're excited to have this person on this week.
Normally this is when we have to fade the Steelers.
Yet the number has gone up, right, You've got a
team like the Giants, blowout win, blowout loss playing a

(01:07:33):
team like the Steelers, and a blowout win sixty percent
against the spread the past twenty years, Tomlin as a
favorite forty seven percent against the spread as a favorite,
I don't.

Speaker 2 (01:07:44):
Want to hear about the labor pays man. Deliver the
damn baby.

Speaker 1 (01:07:47):
The reason I didn't like the Giants last week is
because their offensive line is terrible, and you got Daniel Jones,
And now you've got to ask yourself, he's got a
twenty three million dollar injury guarantee for next year. At
some point, does Dayball Russell Wilson in this guy and
sit him down because he can't keep him healthy and
they're gonna have to pay him next year if he
gets hurt. So like I don't want to bet this game,

(01:08:09):
and I don't want this in the contest. We're coming
down on Monday night and I'm like, so antsy At
seven point thirty, I'm sitting on my couch on TikTok
for an hour waiting for the freaking game to kick off.

Speaker 2 (01:08:19):
Yeah, I think I think could probably put in the chat.

Speaker 3 (01:08:21):
I don't think Daniel Jones has ever won a Night Game,
or maybe he's won one, but I just in my
recent memory, I can't remember him winning. So he's won
one Night Game in his entire career.

Speaker 2 (01:08:30):
So he's just bad. I mean that that team is
just bad.

Speaker 3 (01:08:33):
You're right, like defensively, this is a good matchup for
Pittsburgh and this is the number that has steamed up.

Speaker 2 (01:08:38):
I think it was three and a half. Now it's
up to six and a half. What's gonna stop it.

Speaker 3 (01:08:43):
I don't know if any professionals will come in yet
and take it, but I could see it keep going
up some with you, there's other dogs that I like
more than this Giants team, but man, it's it is
a nice spot for them with the number because it's
probably going to get up to seven.

Speaker 2 (01:08:57):
At that point. I'll be tempted to take it, but
now I won't make this one.

Speaker 1 (01:09:00):
Of our five great spot. We will not put this
in the contest because they would have to get to
seven and a half. I think for us to do that,
it's not going to get there, all right, Exec Decision
Colts plus six. Simon says Dallas plus four and a half.
We got a nice round number of eight or nine
games that we want to review on Thursday. See what
the guys have to say. As far as the sharp calls,

(01:09:22):
I'm excited to dig in a little bit more, narrow
it down, have our super special guest on the Thursday show.
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