October 24, 2024 • 57 mins
There bets are rolling in as Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their favorite plays across the NFL Week 8 slate. Together they discuss a massive Cowboys matchup against the 49ers, give some praise to the Detroit Lions, provide their weekly boosted underdog moneyline parlay courtesy of bet365, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs.
It's all fun and games as they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com
We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I am
live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined
as always by my calls, my companion, my compadre, my BFF,
professional better So I'm in Hunter earro So I'm.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
In Hello Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Listen? I'm a professional?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
You are?
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I have not spoken since I fell asleep watching the
Bulls get blown out by the New Orleans Pelicans last night,
so I'm ready to roll. I hope it's not too
painful for our listeners. Today's o NFL Week eight Best
Bets episode, where Simon and I narrow down our five
(00:59):
picks and the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
Pickum contest presented by BET three six five. Sign up
now with Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We will also
get into the foxhol give our Tommy John Big Balls
bet of the week, discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted,
money Line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin, and so
(01:22):
much more. Bets are rolling in lines are moving, decisions
need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin
Coward likes to say, because there's a sea of money
out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
by Bet three six five and now new Bet three
sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorite,
(01:46):
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment. It's an ever ordinary. A bet three
sixty five must be twenty one or older in president
in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
(02:07):
we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during
the season. We want to hear how the wise guys
are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are.
(02:30):
The lines move based on our conversations. The pros feel
compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do
sharp calls.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
Rain telephone range.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Somebody said, maybe.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
What you do man?
Speaker 4 (02:52):
Yeah, let's run through it. I think the books and
the professionals think this is.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Going to be a bad week for the public.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
That the public is about the walk into it after
getting fat for two straight weeks. Chad so off the
top of a game I love. I don't know if
Chad's come around yet. The Rams you love them? Are
you still?
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Well, I know listen, I know the wise guys are
all over it. I know it all over it. Everyone's
been talking about it. The plus three. I'll probably bet it.
But I'm doing it because you're on it, and everyone's
saying I should be on it now everyone.
Speaker 4 (03:27):
Yeah, that was my number one big call after our
show is just make sure people take the Rams.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Listen to the show. So I'm sure we'll talk a
little bit more about that one.
Speaker 4 (03:34):
So just run through it real quick. They love the Rams,
love the Browns. Another game that you know, we talked
a little bit about love the Jags obviously the Colts.
I've been shocked by this Colts line movement, have you?
I mean, I am shocked that this is down now
at five and a lot of books.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
So well, I'm not because it was my exact decision
and I tend to move the lines.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
Yeah, but it was just it's just crazy it moved
off the key number of six. So yeah, another game
will dobvise you dive more into if we're gonna take
down our contest Miami aside, We're not really on professionals
actually love that side. I'm on the opposite of this
one here. I like Atlanta a lot of product talk.
Do you really like the Bucks in this bounce back spot?
Kind of a desperate team. I guess another game as
(04:17):
well that I'm a little decided on was the Bills
in Seahawks. Seems like a lot of the professionals love
the Bills. I guess I need to come around more
than a Mark Cooper is a big deal to them,
and that they have gotten healthier on defense, and this
actually is a nice spot.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
I know.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Evan had a piece in his article about, you know,
just the exact scenario of Josh Allen these kind of spots,
he's actually not too bad. So that's when I'm probably
not on the right side taking to the Seahawks, so
I kind of see their perspective on that one. Bears,
maybe I'll given check get the Bears in our contest,
the professional that we be, love Love the Bears in
this upcoming spot, and the last two Raiders. I don't
(04:52):
know if I've got Chad's full confidence in this Raiders pick,
but I still think at the ten ten and a
half in the contest, it's very tempting. And obviously the
last one we both like the Dallas Cowboys. We've both
seen them come down now from six and a half,
five and a half, four and a half now they're
down to four most books, so that lines are exactly
what I thought.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
It was gonna do. I think it should be three
and a half.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
It seems like that's exactly where it's heading for that
Sunday night matchup. So yeah, right now we're on the
right side of a lot of games that we really like,
and then a couple sides that, you know, maybe I
need to get a little more bullied to the other
side because I just I don't know it's hard for
me to really want to back, especially in Miami a
mis three and a half. So yeah, interesting perspective this
week from a lot of professionals.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
So betting against the public after a bad game. That's
sixty one percent since two thousand and five. There are
a couple scenarios in the in the games that we're
going to talk about that we'll cover that. But you
mentioned the public getting fat week seven, ten and four
(05:54):
against the spread, Week six ten three and one against
the spread. That does a bounce back after the public
had started in the first five weeks with its worst
start against the spread, meaning public is fifty one percent
or more of the bets on one side. It had
been the worst start for those games in our history
(06:18):
of tracking these games. The last two weeks twenty seven
and one, so huge bounce back. Someone is due for
a regression right now. Either the public is still catching
up to get to even or it is time for
the public to get slaughtered. We have learned a lot
(06:40):
this week trying to unpack our challenges. Specifically for the contest.
We've been leaning heavy into these ugly dogs, these trend
picks that tend to go against the public. We may
still do that. At least now we know it's a weakness, right,
so if we do it and we get caught, but
(07:01):
it's not our fault. It's really it's really just the numbers,
not the ball and not bouncing our way Arizona plus
three and a half at Miami. Ah, I've heard the
same rumblings. The wise Guy's loving my Haami, Miami loving
the return of two. They like the cards. They're like
betting against the cars traveling in this short week. For me, ultimately,
(07:26):
this wasn't gonna make it like I bet the cards
at three and a half. I bet it because of
the number. It wasn't because of anything else. I just
wanted to hook with Kyler, who, by the way, as
a road dog second best against the spread mark in
that spot since two thousand and three, according to Evan, Like,
we're never going to get all the trends and mashups
(07:47):
to line up, but in this one, it doesn't feel
like we really have anything other than the number.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
Yeah, I just I'll play it up on Miami, just
because I know these guys who are taken mihim here
pretty sharp, and you know they have their reasons, and
I think at three and a half. Arizona totally get it,
but at three I'll go with the Miami and they're
just how much worse can I get for this team?
Like this feels like this is it for them in
their season. That's why it feels a little bit like
two is rushing back here and that they know that
(08:15):
if they don't win this one, it's basically over right.
I mean, they're just there'd be too big of a
whole for them to get out of. So you're right,
I'm happy we're actually avoiding this game.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
I'm not. I'm not upset avoiding Atlanta minus two and
a half. It's a divisional game with road fave, not
a spot we would historically love. But again this season
home dogs three nine and one thirty eight percent, right
past two seasons, home divisional dogs, home divisional dogs, No Godwin,
(08:49):
no Mike Evans kirk off of a loss forty and
twenty six fifth best of two hundred and eighty quarterbacks
since two thousand and three. And unless you think we
can't back a road public fave starting in the twenty
(09:10):
three season until this past week, road public favorites sixty
two percent against the spread, something is going on in
the past two years that we're going to have to
decide is is it a trend? Is it a lack
of parody? Like what is happening here that we're gonna
have to unpack? I know, wise guys like the Bucks,
(09:33):
I would be with you. I still like the Falcons.
Speaker 4 (09:36):
Yeah, I still like the Falcons. But there's another routine
that we talked about the Bears. I had much rather
take where it's like, yes, that that game I could
see going a certain way, where this game we always
talk about this the NFC South, Sometimes you really never know, right,
Like this game could easily just be Tampa runs it
down Atlanta's throat and you know they never get a
going Atlanta, right, And.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
That's that's the fear here.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
That to me is what I'm looking at, where it's
like there is a path for the Bucks. We're on
that other game. I just I don't know how the
Bears uncovered and I can easily see the Bears going
up right, I can see that once Daniels is officially
that I talked about, I think that get up three
and a half. So I think we'll get good line
value on that game. Where this game i'd be shocked
(10:17):
at this point because there's so much professional money coming
in on this buck side that this number ever gets
up to three, three and a half.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
All right, This next game Tennessee at Detroit, they got
down to ten and a half. I bet it at
ten and a half. It's back at eleven. It doesn't matter.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
If you have one ass cheek and three toes, I
will beat your rass.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
You said you had this power rated closer to fourteen.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Since we spoke, the Titans have basically admitted they're done.
They've traded their best wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. They
traded one of their starting linebackers. Neither of those moves
will help them hold a first half lead, which they've
blown three times this year. They are still tied with
(11:01):
Baltimore for giving up the second most second the most
second half points this year. Jared Goff thirty and ten
against the spread indoors the past four seasons, the Lions
seventy percent against the spread the past four seasons, best
(11:22):
stretch since nineteen eighty like credible it. We've put so
much emphasis on historical trends and not enough on player
coach matchup. I wanted this to be our big balls.
You have overruled me because last week I got to
(11:43):
choose the Browns and it did not go well for us.
And by the way, I would have taken the Browns
again this week, but in our history, we have never
taken that's not true and eleven point favorite as our
big balls never.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
I can tell you a game I can remember off
the top of my head, and we used to be
able to pick Thursday night games in our contest. We
took the New England Patriots and Tom Brady as like
a I don't even know it might have been like
a thirteen point favorite on the road and he had
a last second touchdown for us to cover that number.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
So that's that's the number that just pops in my
head of like that was scarring for me.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
I don't think we ever took a big favorite since
then because it was just we needed so much luck.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Where you're that is that is your superpower, a rain
man like ability to remember every single win and loss
and moments like that.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
We talked about this.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
Though this line's number to me fell too short, it
makes me feel good that it's coming back up because
it's like I couldn't believe there was groups coming in
and bet in this Tennessee side where it's like there's
so many other dogs I'd rather invest my money. And
I'm shocked that people are trying to move this line.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
And you're right now.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
We're seeing up to eleven and a half too in
a lot of books. So that actually makes me feel
better because I'm with you. I bet at ten and
a half, bet at eleven. It's like, Okay, this number
should not be going down, that should be going up.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
And now it is.
Speaker 4 (13:03):
Matchup wise, though, we love this matchup in so many
different ways.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
For Detroit.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
We both said the only way they lose if they
beat themselves. They just have so many different ways that
beat you offensively. We know golf is due for a
letdown week. Maybe they're looking ahead to next week right
when they're playing Green Bay, and that could be another
reason they don't, you know, put it all together here.
But my model likes this. I like this, Chad likes this.
It feels like it's unavoidable.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
We're gonna have this. Lions in our contest.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Huh. So I did do a little free show sneak
peek at the lines in the contest. Lions were eleven
and a half.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Yeah, I'd be fine with that because that's that's a
dead number. Honestly.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Well, it's interesting because there were other ones that.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Of course they're gonna win this game twenty one to ten,
and we'll be like, god damn it.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
And like, look like we we've talked about the Jags,
We've talked about the Bears, We've talked about the Colts.
Like there's a lot of lines that have moved aggressively
against us since we first started talking about them, even
on Sunday. So I think it's going to be challenging.
Eleven and a half is a tough one, like we
(14:16):
rarely have put that in the contest. But you know,
I'm glad we're on the same page at least. I thought,
like this morning when we were talking about the Lions
and I was all in on it and you were hesitant,
I thought, it's because you just didn't like the game.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
So I don't think it takes balls. I'll be honest
like this, I got no reservation taking this one. Why not.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
They've been good to us this year, and like we
just said, this to me, doesn't feel like the spot
they let us down. I think it's next week that
we see Detroit kind of wavering.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
All right, Well, then guess what It's time Simon for
our big ball bet of the Week, presented by Tommy John.
If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.
Great games start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes
(15:05):
the greatest. I pulled back a little bit. Yes, I
didn't want to.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
God, we're still another half the show to do, you know, I.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
Didn't want to blow it out. Yeah, all right, we're
talking about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Look, the Jags were at
four and a half, got down to four. It's still
at four at three six five, but it's three and
a half in a lot of places. We were tempted
by Green Bay, and you got a rare Sunday night
(15:34):
sharp call saying we were on the wrong side. I
don't think that has ever happened, rain Man. You can
tell me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
Yeah, no, I mean, guys love talking shit, so of course.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
No professional has ever called you to wave you off.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
After multiple That was the more surprising part. It was
a bunch of guys, right, That was what was crazy.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
So what gives here.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
A lot?
Speaker 4 (15:57):
I think we talked about matchup wise, this isn't that
beat of a matcher for the Jaguars. Same thing with
that Rams matchup against the Rams, like surprisingly good matchup
for two teams that people perceive is bad and that
have had struggles this season, and both those teams have
suffered from just bad luck and you know, and a
couple things and bounce these teams ways. And I think
the same thing goes with the Jaguars here, and I
talked about Tank Digsby, I think is a big deal.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
This is a guy who can just take it up
the middle and you know, just thump guys. He's like
Marshawn Lynch type.
Speaker 4 (16:25):
And that's a weakness for green Bay, Like you can
run the ball in this team, and green Bay this
season has been very dependent defensively on turnovers. And I
know we have a guy walking in here in Trevor
Lawrence who does turn the ball over, but this year,
if you go back and look, he's also had some
really bad turnover luck that is regressed and should keep
on regressing. So I just like this matchup for them
(16:48):
and green Bay wise, you know, I know we can
get into the whole thing with the Florida Heat them
going down there and then obviously another look ahead spot
for them where they're playing.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Detroit next week. At a lot to like about this,
and then there was a couple of trends.
Speaker 4 (17:01):
I thought it was interesting from Evan about it's not
that big of a deal and skipping the bye week
coming back from England. Surprisingly like teams actually aren't that
bad in those type of scenarios. So we talked about
though the line to me, you should have been three
and a half. We're about to hit that breaking point
right of it flipping to being value on Green Bay,
So it's gonna be unfortunate if it is three and
(17:23):
a half of our contest. And that's what we get
for always waiting to pick on Thursday, because like I
got Cold six and a half on Tuesday in our contest,
and I got the Jaguars four and a half. So
we try to be honorable and wait here to put
our picks in. And it looks like we're gonna miss
the line value on two of these games. So I'm
opening it's still four and a half. I hope people
out there listening can still get the four because that's
(17:44):
what I bet. I have not touched anything Jags three
and a half, but I'd still do it. It's just
try to get the four. The four is such a
key number. I can't tell you any times I've been
saved by a push when it lands right on four.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Yeah, it's definitely going to be at three and a
half in the contest, I think Jack I've checked, so
it's gonna be a tough call for us. I'm not
loving the Jags at three and a half. I feel
like we're and we talked about this all the time.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
I'm want to scare you off, Chad, Well.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
How much does the line matter in the contest? Like
it isn't that often, right, but in a year in
which the final point totals have been so close, right,
the variance, the percentage value of that half point just
(18:36):
becomes that much bigger. So I'm not loving the idea
of having the Jags at three and a half.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
I wouldn't worry about that because when we talked about it.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
So far this season, I think we've had three games
that were decided at two and a half where the
hook did matter on the two and a half, and
then we've had two games that decided by the six
and a half. So we got the five and a
half for the six and a half, we either covered
or we missed.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
So I talked since two years ago.
Speaker 4 (19:02):
I just don't think three is as port as it
used to be, so I wouldn't let it totally throw
them off, like I could still see us getting the
three and a half in there. I'm just talking strictly
people putting real money down here. It's like get the
four like that's long term. That's how you protect against
that type of bullshit.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
This is a luck game, you mentioned, is it luck? Yeah,
it's the biggest luck game of the week, favoring the Jags.
For a reminder, we do the luck rankings generally sixty
percent against the spread when there is a huge gap
in luck. Nick Giffin, Sean Kerner, or Billy Ward our
analytics team put this formula together. It separates the signals
(19:42):
from the noise and can predict regression when teams are
likely to have more luck going their way and the
bad luck not going their way or going against them anymore.
The Packers are a great example of that, and you
just mentioned it. They've been feasting on turnovers, but if
you look at their underlying metrics, and you've said this
all year, their overall defense isn't that good, like amongst
(20:07):
the worst in the league and early down success rate.
Speaker 3 (20:09):
So the.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
Matchup, the way the line is moving is indicative of
the underlying stats and expectations of some bad luck not
going against the Jags anymore. So that's why it's their
big balls, big falls.
Speaker 4 (20:29):
Before the past two weeks, I would just tell the
public this is like the definition of a trap. But
they've just been stepping in a bunch of traps and
they're not getting caught, so they're the ones laughing. But
this is like everything I think of, and you as
well of, Like you're about to step in. You think
you've got a good number, Oh they're giving you even
better number.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
Now at three and a half.
Speaker 4 (20:47):
Usually this is a weary sign where you know ninety
percent of the bets, ninety percent of the money are
coming on Green Bay, and it's now moved through one
key number.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
That's a big deal.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Simon our sponsor, Tommy John. As bad as my voice
sounds right now, I'm still super comfortable because I'm wearing
Tommy John's That's not even a joke, it's a true story.
It's the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. They've changed
my life. When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better.
If you love Simon and I. If you love this show,
(21:18):
you love Tommy John, get twenty five percent off your
first order right now at Tommy John dot com slash favorites,
Say twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
All right, INDI at Houston, this was my EXAC decision.
I better at six and a half, You better at
six and a half?
Speaker 2 (21:36):
Sharp? Sharp?
Speaker 1 (21:38):
It was yeah, totally sharp. I'm sharp. It was my
EXAC decision at when it was at six. It's now
down to five. There are places where it's going to
four and a half. I don't like it as much now,
given how much come down. I do still like the matchup.
I know everyone is so fixated on Anthony Richardson and
(22:02):
how bad his completion percentage is, and it is historically bad,
it's terrible. But Jonathan Taylor returned to practice, right, yep.
If we are looking back to what we talked about
on Tuesday, where we have been making sort of blind
bets on bad teams and the number and bad quarterbacks
(22:23):
regardless of the coaching skill, all that this actually fits
the framework of what we like in a big underdog.
We think we're getting value on the number. But they've
got their best skill player behind their most dominant unit,
which is their offensive line, which is the best run
blocking unit in football. And Shane Steichen, who's a really
(22:45):
good play caller, gets his top weapon back for his
best unit. So, like, I know, Anthony Richardson like his
comps at historically Josh Freeman, Derek Anderson, JaMarcus Russell. That's
the accuracy comb still like the cults.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
Yeah, and I always try not to be too hard
on the kid because it's his ninth game the Pros,
and you know, we talked coming into it. He played
seventeen games total in his career, and it was just,
you know, we were joking before the show about bow Knicks.
The guy played, you know, feels like six years in college.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
I think in twenty eighteen he.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
Was SEC rookie or whatever it was of the year,
Freshman of the year. And it's like we Richardson didn't
have that, right, he just has not had the reps.
And you've seen bow Knicks, even Jane Daniels, a guy
who played I feel like four years in college. Like
it's a big deal like that kind of getting all
this type of reps. So me and you know the
deal with Richardson here, like we are going to be
screaming his name when it's third and three and he
(23:46):
sails the ball over a wide open guy in the flat,
Like that's the brutal part with him this season, you know.
But we always talk about the math and the numbers,
and this number was too high. I still think it's
too high, so I wouldn't be terrified putting the contest.
But again, it'd be nice to get the five and
a half over the four and a half. But it's
not that big of a deal for us, right, We're
just as happy to get it in. But how do
(24:10):
you not like this game for an upset? Like this
is just a Houston team that I think the public
is starting to realize a little bit that they're not
that great. There are some hols to this team, and
we've seen that since last year. Defense has been playing
CJ differently. Right, it's not as been as easy as
it was for the previous season rahim offensively, and we
(24:30):
talked the loss of Nico Collins to mean this matchup
is the biggest deal this guy has destroyed this Colts.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Team the past two years when he plays against them.
Speaker 4 (24:38):
And even in those games, they were always close with
Nico Collins. Now he's gone and we're getting Jonathan Taylor back,
which I think is such a huge deal against another
weakness for Houston. Like a lot of these things we
talk about, they can be run on. So I'm with you, Chad,
like you know I feel about this. I love the
Colts not only to cover this game, but pull the
upset off and wins. So I haven't waivered, but I'm
(25:00):
like you. It's like, man, we had six and a
half in the contest that would look so so nice.
So it's tough that the pros have just bet this down.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Yeah, it's interesting. You know. I log my bets in
the app and I like to check in the morning
just as like a perverse you know, makes me feel
better see how much better number? Yeah, did I get
the best of the number? And like the Colts plus
six and a half is the first bet that's listed,
and I keep seeing it go down. I'm like, I
(25:29):
feel so good it even though it means nothing like.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
People should be listening on Sunday Night Show, right, brother.
Speaker 1 (25:36):
Exactly, That's what it means, Like I see the Bears
plus one and a half, I'm like, oh my god,
are you fucking kidding?
Speaker 4 (25:41):
That one was my favorite this week. Getting that at
a plus one and a half. It wasn't just it
wasn't just up for a minute or two, it was up.
I was betting it's still won the morning, so like
it didn't flip until the next.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Morning on Monday. So that was another great one.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
Maybe you flipped it, maybe, But one trend we have
been able to count on home division faves forty five
point seven percent against the spread since twenty fifteen, So
another that one, Like we're bringing the trends in in
the right way. They're complementing. They're not driving Baltimore to Cleveland.
(26:15):
Like I threw this in because it's a big home
dog and we don't have any metrics right now telling
us to back them. But I do wonder is are
we going to get a dead cat bounce here? The
Ravens are way overvalued coming off of a short week,
Marlon Humphrey injured, Zay Flowers injured. They'll play, but the
(26:39):
Browns getting healthier, especially in the defensive backfield. Talk about
selling high like the one question is did we miss
the best of the number because we didn't get it
at ten. But Lamar is a favorite of more than three,
has been terrible. Yep, So like I don't, I don't
hate the Browns at nine and a half. I did
better at nine and a half. I didn't better at
(26:59):
it ten.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
Yeah, it's a key moving like, that's what's tough.
Speaker 4 (27:03):
I bet this at eleven eleven and a half, that's
how high it got, and now it's all the way
down to a lot of books.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
I'm seeing eight and a half now, Chad. So I
like it. But this is exactly what you've talked about. Brother.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
We're literally betting a bad team with a bad backup
quarterback against arguably the best team of football right now.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
So I hate myself. I hate myself.
Speaker 4 (27:23):
Obviously I like the Browns, but you just said we're
one and sixteen in the exact this exact spot. The
bounds have not gone our way, So I think we
should take the Browns. Obviously, it's a good number, and
you know you mentioned the injuries. The biggest one to
me is we talked about why we want to fade.
This Ravens team is a big favorite. The back door
is always going to be open. I mean, they just
(27:44):
I can't get over how bad their DC is, Like
their defense should not be that big of a drop
off from last season. It just shows how important coaching is, right,
Like it's night and day the Ravens defense, when the
best defenses in football last year and now this year.
I mean, they're giving up them most points in football,
which is crazy when you have teams like Carolina Panthers
out there.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
So yeah, it's such a big number.
Speaker 4 (28:07):
Chat, it's if me and you talk ourselves into bend
at Sunday morning put in our contest.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
People do not be shocked.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
But I am so sorry ahead of time because this
is exactly the exact game we talked.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
About avoiding because we've just been burned by it.
Speaker 1 (28:19):
You're so right. I hate myself for not even recognizing this.
I spent the first.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Time to do though.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
That's what I mean, don't You shouldn't hate yourself. I've
made a lot of money. I live a good life
betting these type of games. So it's yeah, but it's
gonna come back around the.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
First ten hours of my week on Monday, identifying and
pinpointing a problem because I'd like us to be thoughtful,
and I'd like us to improve, and I would like
us to just be good at this and be intellectually
honest about what's going right and what's going wrong, and
not just blindly bet the games we've always historically bet
because we're supposed to do it. And then I fall
(28:57):
into the freaking trap. Fall into a freaking trap. Yeah, God,
I hate myself. You know what, I don't hate. I
don't hate taking the Cincinnati Bengals. You hate it? Yeah,
I think you think I'm walking into a trap.
Speaker 2 (29:11):
No, No, Honestly, this game is a coin flip to me.
Speaker 4 (29:15):
To me, it's two teams that whoever wins this, I'd
be like, Okay, they don't suck because right now, in
my perspective, this team is that I don't think either
of these teams are that good, and they've been fortunate
to play bad teams this season and they beat up
on bad teams.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Right, both these teams.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
Have and in my mind, obviously the Eagles are way
more talented.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
You know, this Bengals team defensively, they're horrible.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
Like if if Sirianni's true to his where and the
Eagles commit to the run and they don't get down
seven to nothing and all of a sudden have Jalen
Hurts just dropping back the rest of the game, throwing
the ball fifty times. I do think they'll cover this
number and keep this close, especially at two and a half.
But my thing is, Chad, if this guy down a
one and a half, I could take. I'll take Bengals
within the contest.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
If this is one and a.
Speaker 4 (29:58):
Half in contest, I'll take that because that's a good
number in this Eagles team.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
We talk all the time Hurts as an underdog, especially
on the road.
Speaker 4 (30:06):
He is just not good statistically, like he does not
win these type of games. And you know, Eagles defense
might be starting two rookies against Joe Burrow in this
passing offense. Isn't that a huge bonus for this Bengals team.
Like if Burro's gonna carve up anyone, this should be
the type of team he'd carve up a young, inexperienced
team when he has two veteran wide receivers. So I
(30:27):
know where you're coming from this Bengals team. It's just
my fear is this Bengals team is just a bad team.
Like I get it. You beat up on the Giants
the Panthers, and you know, great, but now you're going
to play a team that we perceived to be a
legit playoff team.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
The Eagles should step up here and beat this team.
So that's just my hesitation here.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Let me see if I can convince you, because I
actually I might like this game as much as I
like the Bears. A plus one and a half. Wow,
Like I've got the better quarterback, a really good kicker
who drops bombs at less than a field goal, Joe
Burrow thanks to Evan, I know that Joe Burrow was
(31:09):
twenty two six and one when facing a team that
just covered the Eagles overall, sixty three percent against the
spread in his career, seventy percent against the spread against
teams that are over five hundred. We've seen the public
come in on the Eagles and this line has moved
(31:32):
to two and a half plus, and I think this
is big. We don't know the status of Dallas Goddard.
He might not play because of a hamstring injury. Didn't
practice yesterday. Jordan Mailatta out, so that's terrible. I listened
to Raybon and Stuckey on the Sunday six Pack this
(31:53):
morning the Action Network podcast, Raybem made the point that
Fred Johnson Jordan Mailatta is backup, allows a pressure rate
of twenty two percent, the average for left tackles six percent,
and he's going to be going against Trey Hendrickson.
Speaker 4 (32:12):
Yeah, they'll have some of the counter that though there
are no dummies. But I agree with you, it's not ideal.
But I felt the same thing last week. Why didn't
want to take the Eagles? It was like, I guess
who has a way better d line than the Cincinnati team,
the Giants, And it was neutered because they could run
the ball. And that's the key here, That's what I'm
telling you. The key to this game is if Saquan
dominates this game, the Eagles will run away over it.
(32:32):
This Bengals defense is that bad. But on the flip side,
you just said all those Joe Burrows scots are terrifying,
like Joe should beat up on this team is But
the problem is we don't know we're getting week to
week from Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
Chad.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
I mean, that's that's what the risk injury has been
this season. Some weeks it looks like old Joe, who's
starting for three hundred yards. You know, four touchdowns in
a game, and then you have a follow up week
where he can't complete third down passes. Right, he just
struggles because he has no control over the ball because
he can't feel the ball, Like that's the issue with
the grip on the ball with his wrists.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
So you know that's the pushback for me.
Speaker 4 (33:04):
But once again, Chad, if this is one and a
half on Sunday, you're feeling good about it, I'll bet
that number as well. I could be bullied and taking
Cincinnati here because I do think it's all about the
number in this matchup. Like you're right, the kicker is
a big deal in this game.
Speaker 1 (33:19):
In the NBA, there's Bullyball on the favorites, there's Bully
Bets Buffalo with Seattle. I like, I don't you mentioned it.
I'm fine if we pass it. Yeah, okay.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
I don't know what to deal with it either.
Speaker 4 (33:33):
I just know what the professionals like. They like the
bills and they like the bills of minus three. So
if you want, if you want to take the bills
of the pros, make sure you get the three before
it goes with three and a half.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
The one thing I would say is then that to
me says the professionals don't think Seattle is a very
good team, yep, because the Bills are bullies. They beat
up on the bad teams and then they get beat
by the good times the good teams. The one outlier
is the Jets, who probably are a good team, but
they're poorly coached, bad attitude, make dumb mistakes.
Speaker 4 (34:04):
It was a game that the Bills and Josh Allen
just you know, it doesn't match up all against that defense,
and that historically has been the case for him the
last couple of years. But we already talked about Josh
Allen's in god mode, no turnovers, fifteen touchdown.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
I'm skipping Chargers Saints. I don't think that'll ever to
make the contest with Chargers minus seven, which is the
number I think you lean to. I don't have an
opinion on it.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Yeah, I'm on the Charger. But that's fine.
Speaker 1 (34:26):
We can keep it moving because, like I think, there's
other games we know we're going to want to put
in right Chicago minus two and a half, so let's
talk about it.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
Hungry Bears are violent bears.
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Jadeen Daniels did not practice on Wednesday. We both bet
the Bears at one and a half, even with the
injury to Jade Daniels. I don't love we're betting against
the line flip forty two betting against the line flip
since twenty nineteen. But Kayleb Williams has been doing special
things undefeated in the second half this year against the spread.
(34:57):
Only other person who's Patrick Mahomes How bad? How bad
will Washington be with Marcus Mariota, like you pointed it
out on Tuesday, how terrible he is. They've had twelve
punts this season, the fewest since nineteen fifty. They've been
(35:17):
perfect on fourth downs and nearly fifty percent on third downs.
All of that changes without Jayden and Daniels. So to me,
I'm fine betting the Bears because I think we have
to think about this not as a line flip, but
as a new line with the Bears is less than
a field goal.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
Yeah, and the book makers are just like me, where
it's seven points of vye from Jane Daniels to Marcus Mariota.
So like the line flip to me, makes total sense.
They need to make that flip because anyone who has
a model is going to see that this is just
an off line. So sure, what mean you might get caught?
Maybe we're stepping in here back in the Bears team, But.
Speaker 1 (35:56):
Are we in the Foxhill? Are we in the Foxhol
with the Bears?
Speaker 2 (35:58):
I'd love to be in the foxhewl on the Bear.
That'd be really nice.
Speaker 1 (36:01):
I would love to be in a foxhol with you
and the Bears.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
Let's go.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
That would be my dream foxhol me, you and the
Chicago freaking Bears. We are in the fox whole.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a
foxhole guy.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
I'm a foxhole guy. Just matchup wise, We've talked about it.
Speaker 4 (36:22):
I love the way this defense can match up against
the Washington On offense.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
We know Washington was gonna have a bunch of aggression
coming up right.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Their third down completion rate, it's impossible sustain that being
nine for nine off fourth downs. You just can't sustain
that type of consistency for the whole season, especially with
a young, inexperienced offense that they have with Jane Dales.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
Now you say, well Mario is coming, that should be different.
Speaker 4 (36:48):
I really do think Jane Doellens is that much better
than Marcus Marioder. Like that's why I'm so willing to
say the line move so much. It's just night and day.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
That's not going out on a limb.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
It's not. But people professionally wht think it is.
Speaker 4 (37:00):
Where it's like they think Mario can do a lot
of the same stuff that he does, which.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
Is, you know, being a mobile quarterback.
Speaker 4 (37:06):
And I think that there's more to jayde Daniels game
right now than Mark Smarrio. So my view of this
is just Bears are smart. Their coaching staff smart enough
they'll just stack the box and they'll force Maria to
pass the ball.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
Right.
Speaker 4 (37:17):
The key to this game will be stopping Brian Robinson
and Austin Eckler, Like you stop the run game, force
Maria to pass, especially on thirty and eights, Like that's
me and Chat are going to make our money on
thirty and eights against Mariota, Like that's where we want
to be. Where he's got to pass the ball over
ten yards and we're going to get a either stupid
pass or a tip pass. Get some turnovers here with
this Bear secondary that's been so good this season offensively,
(37:40):
Bears I can't find the weakness in the matchup for
them against this Washington team. Like Washington this year has
been lucky that they've been up in so many leads
because it's easy for them to pin their ears back
and just rush the passer right, and that will not
be the case here. I think the Bears be able
to keep them off bound, especially if this game is close,
and the fact that it's still under three is the
key to me. Like, I just like that number a
(38:01):
lot at two and a half. So yeah, people can
tell listen to this. It's one of my favorite Chalker
sides of the week, is this Bears matchup, especially coming
off the bye week.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
I've been trying to figure out which Chalky game, which
public game we're going to put in. I'm surprised that
you are like this so much more than back in
Joe Burrow. It just it strange to me. I mean,
one of those games is not going to make it.
Speaker 4 (38:26):
Say Joe Burrow in twenty twenty two. This is Joe
Burrow in twenty twenty four. The guys the different quarterback.
Speaker 1 (38:32):
What I'm saying is one of these games will not
make it into our final five. And on Sunday night.
It will be a fascinating conversation. Fascinating Matt Mitchell, do
not let us forget to talk about the Bengals or
the Bears on Sunday night. All right, Kansas City at
Las Vegas plus nine and a half the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (38:57):
The autumn win is a rat of pillaging.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Just for five my own games come down from ten.
Look Tuesday morning, we had three double digit favorites. Now
we're down to one. The Browns have come down, the
Raiders have come down. We've bet the Raiders. We bet
them at plus ten. This is a massive pros Joe's split.
We're doing this signmon in spite of the fact even
(39:23):
though Mahomes is only forty eight percent against the spread
as a favorite of more than three nine, six and
two the past two seasons. In spite of the fact
public road faves sixty one percent against the spread the
past two years, and don't forget sixteen and two since
the start of Week five, In spite of the fact
Home Division dogs three nine to one this year thirty
(39:45):
eight percent since the start of twenty three, only fifty
one percent since twenty twenty. None of those are good
road teams. Sixty one percent against the spread this season,
one in sixteen. We are in this exact spot this season,
(40:07):
And in spite of the fact the Chiefs just eliminated
their biggest issue, which was getting a dependable receiver. In
spite of the fact mahomes eleven to seven and one
against the spread against divisional opponents, like I know, this
(40:28):
is one of our big dog plays. I like Cleveland
more than I like the Raiders.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
That's fair in my eyes. There, it's the exact same.
It's the same as last week with the Browns and
the Giants. There's no difference to me. We're just playing
the numbers here in the scenario, in the situation, And
just like those games I liked last week, this week,
I like both matchups for these big old dogs. I
like the matchup for the Raiders, not just defensively, all offensively.
Speaker 2 (40:52):
But I get the hesitation.
Speaker 4 (40:54):
Chat we're back in the Raiders team that you know
you said it last week is historical. No team has
ever turned the ball over whatever it was, four times
and just had all these awful things happen, they still
cover the number just because their coach kicked the random
field goal. So I get where you're coming from this
Raiders team. It's not for the faint of heart, and
I get why we might end up passing on this
(41:14):
one just because it was ten and a half in
the contest key number. Now it's down to nine and
a half in contest, which is a big deal to me,
Like if we're not gonna get the best of the number,
especially with the dog shit team like this Raiders team,
it's like, Okay, I could be bullied off of it,
but you you being scared of Hopkins is one of
the funnier things that's happened this week. You acting like, oh,
I got a bad number. This number is gonna go
(41:35):
up now because Hopkins joined the team. It's like, in
what world does Chad think Hopkins is moving this by
even half a point.
Speaker 1 (41:41):
I don't think it's moving. I don't think it's moving
it by half a point.
Speaker 4 (41:44):
But you're acting like you got a bad number at ten,
as if it was going to keep going up, and
it's like.
Speaker 1 (41:48):
No, no, no, no, I bet the number at ten. I'm
glad I got it at ten. I'm thinking we got
a bad number at nine and a half or lower
for the contest because you say we bet this number,
but betting this number has not worked for us, and
betting this number for the past two years has been
a bad number. So it's not an automatic at less
(42:10):
than ten for me to say, yes, this has to
be in the contest. And when you think about the Browns, like,
at least the Browns have a dominant defensive end, they
have an all Pro cornerback in Denzel Ward. They have
like an offensive line that is getting healthier. They have
a better coach than the Raiders have. So those are
(42:34):
the factors that to me are making me lean Browns
more than Raiders.
Speaker 4 (42:39):
No, I get it, you're a great salesman, but at
the end of the day, both these teams are bad.
They're both playing with what we presume to be backup quarterbacks,
and it's just there is, truly, to me, no difference.
It's just I just bet the numbers. Chad scared of it,
but it's like, this is what I do. So it's like, yeah,
the losses sucked, but I still look at it that
it's just been bad luck, bad balances. So it's like
(43:01):
I try not to have reacted too much. Yeah, if
you don't want to put this Raiders one, and you
rather take the Browns. I like the Browns as well,
so it's like, I'm not going to fight you off
that one. My whole point of the best of the
Number is saying that ten and a half is a
big deal and that we're not getting ten and a
half is the reason why I wouldn't put the Raiders
in now. But what I still bet them at nine
and a half. Yeah, I still would take them at
nine and a half. It's just not as confident as
(43:22):
I was as I was on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (43:24):
I love when you patronize me during.
Speaker 4 (43:25):
The show, well just because sometimes you say things, I'm
just like, this guy's out of his mind.
Speaker 2 (43:30):
This guy is out of his mind.
Speaker 1 (43:33):
All right, Let's get to a game that we agree with,
Dallas at San Francisco. We like Dallas at plus four.
It was at five and a half on Sunday. It
was four and a half when you made it. Simon says,
this is a true Joe bro split Cowboys off a bye.
(43:54):
From a sort of atmosphere point of view, couldn't be
worse for them right now. Not only was Jerry Jones
a couple of weeks ago trying to threaten Cowboy's broadcasters
because they were asking him hard questions. This week, he's
calling out Mike McCarthy's play calling a coach he could
(44:18):
have fired after they were blown out at home in
the playoffs. Yeah, but decided to keep a coach who
he didn't support by signing anybody of any value in
the off season. We're still backing him because San Francisco,
I don't know who they're putting on the field. So
we like the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (44:38):
Yeah, and we know the numbers on DAK. Dak is struggled,
struggle as a dog.
Speaker 4 (44:42):
But luckily I haven't had some great stuff in there
about McCarthy off of bye a week and same with
Dak on extended rest that they've actually performed really well
when they have extra time to prepare for these teams.
And you know, we all know the stats right this
forn ire thing without uh they you know, Debo and
without Ayuk and without Christian McCaffrey, Like we just we
(45:03):
talked about it, right, they're gonna struggle in the red zone.
That to me will be the difference in this game.
That's why this spread feels too big. That's why I
think the Cowboys will keep it close. Because you say,
what you want about Dak he gets them down there.
He's for the most parts that I'll finish a lot
of these drives and a lot of their losses kind
of come because of their defense. Right now, that'll get
stops here, I think about it, get stops like as
(45:23):
banged up as there defensively, you can't tell me the
forty nine ers are gonna be okay offensively, Like the
injuries have to catch up to them, and we've seen
they have. Right They're three and fourth this point. So
it just feels like another spot that I'm gonna take
the dog. I'm gonna take the dog to win outright, Like,
I just love this spot for this Dallas team. So
once again a number that I'm hoping we get four
(45:44):
and a half in contest. If it is three and
a half, I don't mind it. That's why I think
the number should be. I still think there's value there.
So this is a classic case of man, this this
this team makes you scary to bet on this Cowboys
team because they've been so bad this year.
Speaker 2 (45:59):
But we just have to trust the number and trust
the spot, right Chad.
Speaker 1 (46:02):
I do I trust this number. I trust the quarterback.
I am worried about the Niners and their injuries. It's
it's you know. Raybon had a great stat on the
show that he did this morning. Per Raybon, a third
of party's targets yards and touchdowns, where with Christian McCaffrey
(46:25):
and Brandon Ayuk. If you don't have debo, that number
goes up to fifty percent. So at some point, you're right,
it just catches up with you if you've got none
of your weapons. And Kittle is banged up. So we'll
be on the Cowboys. Cowboys will be in the contest.
I think we got a really interesting list going here
(46:48):
between the Cowboys have.
Speaker 2 (46:49):
A couple of favorites we like because that's been our
Achilles Hill this season. To me.
Speaker 1 (46:54):
We like the Bears, we like the Lions, we Slash,
I like Cincy, but we also like Dallas. We also
like Indy. We also like Jacksonville. We like Cleveland. We
like the Raiders. It's gonna be It's gonna be fun.
It's gonna be fun.
Speaker 4 (47:12):
Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky, in the heart
of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary
football players.
Speaker 2 (47:22):
They are the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1 (47:26):
Each week we give out a two team money line
underdog parlay Bet three six five boost the odds and
highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.
Remember both games are eligible for the Bet three sixty
five early payout promo, where your money line pick gets
marked as a win if that team takes a seventeen
(47:48):
point lead, even if they lose. So if you want
to bet this, bet it at bet three sixty five.
The boost did parlay, no surprise. If you've been listening
Dallas Cowboys Indianapolis Colts, go to those game pages at
bet three six five to find the boosted parlay. Go
to the Colts, Go to the Cowboys. You'll find the boost,
(48:08):
all right, simon our money line underdog round Robin.
Speaker 4 (48:15):
There will come up heay nay Halla, lou yo wanna
pay day.
Speaker 2 (48:19):
There will come up.
Speaker 3 (48:21):
Pay day some day.
Speaker 2 (48:22):
Some day there will come up heayday.
Speaker 4 (48:25):
Halla lou yo wanna payday.
Speaker 2 (48:28):
I will come up pay day some day.
Speaker 1 (48:32):
I I have some ideas you ready, yes, sir, well,
I'm not putting the Panthers on there, I'll tell you
right now. But I did put the Patriots. I put
the Browns.
Speaker 2 (48:43):
I like the Browns. I don't like the Patriots, all right.
Speaker 1 (48:46):
I put the Colts, I put the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (48:49):
Love it, Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (48:52):
Interesting okay, Jags.
Speaker 4 (48:55):
Uh, Raiders, Raiders okay? No, I was gonna say for
the last one, should we go with the Bucks?
Speaker 2 (49:04):
No?
Speaker 1 (49:05):
I had Raiders?
Speaker 2 (49:05):
Actually you did?
Speaker 3 (49:07):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (49:09):
I love if that in the Browns hit, that alone
would cover the round robin.
Speaker 1 (49:13):
So I do love the payout, all right, So let's
do the Raiders. Raiders, Browns, Colts, Cowboys, Jags are our
moneyline underdog round Robin. Before we get to Simon's biggest bets,
get excited, We're releasing a very short bonus episode of
(49:36):
the podcast. Saturday morning. We sat down with comedian producer
writer Gambler, popular New York sports fan Kid Marrow. It
was a riot, Simon, and I didn't want it to end.
It's true. Be sure to check it out. We promise
you'll like it. Simon. Give me your biggest bets.
Speaker 4 (49:58):
Sure, Cowboys as people, Oh love them, Bears people know
love it. I was the Colts, but now this numbers
move so and much people I wouldn't chase. I wouldn't
chase this as much as I was, this was gonna
be one of my bigger ones. Now that it's down
blow six, I still like it, It's just not gonna
be one of my biggest bets. Still love Jaguars A
plus four if that number stays there going into Sunday,
(50:20):
no doubt about it. And then the final one, of course,
the Los Angeles Rams.
Speaker 1 (50:25):
Wow. All right, so a lot of people be listening
to this after the Thursday night game. But that's big
scooch Roulette. You're five and two, you have a commanding
three game lead. Who's your scooch Roulette?
Speaker 3 (50:38):
When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
Let's play scooch Roulette.
Speaker 4 (50:48):
Man, I have so many games I love, you know what,
I'm trying to just get it over with. Get the
six and two tonight. Gave me the Rams plus three.
Speaker 1 (50:55):
Give me the Cincinnati Bengals, You fool.
Speaker 2 (50:59):
That's your scooter left pic check. Come on.
Speaker 4 (51:02):
Oh and before we move on to my guy Evan people,
Sunday morning, me and Chad do a show on YouTube
or in the action app called Convince Me. Just like
this show. It's free this season. I think last week
I went I went three and oh on my bonus
bedit so I was four and oh I'm fourteen and
seven on the season, so sixty seven percent for the season.
(51:24):
On my picks, all free Gushulis is sixty seven percent
for the season.
Speaker 2 (51:28):
Chris Raybaugh, So you have two guys.
Speaker 4 (51:30):
On the same show, or give it out free winners
every Sunday, wake up, latch our fucking show and make money.
I cannot believe our numbers aren't even bigger than this show.
It's just free money in Sunday morning.
Speaker 2 (51:43):
What are you people doing? So?
Speaker 4 (51:45):
Yeah, we've been really hot. It's been really fun. Check
us out Sunday morning.
Speaker 1 (51:49):
Convince me all the all the stuff, none of the fluff.
The only pregame show. It focuses on the true stuff.
All right, It's time to bring in our director of research,
Evan Abrams. Make us feel good. By the last word
with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
Speaker 3 (52:06):
Yeah, I wanted to take over for you multiple times
during this show chat. I feel bad, but we're gonna
get there for you.
Speaker 1 (52:11):
Let me tast on. It doesn't hurt at all.
Speaker 2 (52:14):
That's good enough, just hurts the list.
Speaker 3 (52:15):
It makes us feel better at least. All right, So
our bet Labs database here at the Action Network goes
back to two thousand and three in the NFL. So
my trivia question at the moment is who is the
most profitable coach against the spread on extended rest? Good
for you, guys, it is Mike McCarthy twenty five, eighteen
and three with the Packers, even better with Dallas thirteen
and five against the spread with Dallas when he's an
(52:37):
underdog on extended rest fourteen six and one. So I
can understand why you guys are interested in that Dallas
San Francisco spot. Talking about your Bears for a second,
this is just going to be playing and simple, and
I think I've actually used this one on this show before,
but teams off of bye versus a team not just
playing and simple, And this number is pretty short still
(52:57):
is fifty six point one percent straight up since that
two thousand and three number. That's over six hundred game
sample size if they if the team off the Bay
is above five hundred thirty five and fifteen straight up
seventy percent since twenty twenty, So pretty decent spot for
those Bears. Now you had mentioned the Colts, and I
know that number has gotten a little out of whack
(53:18):
in terms of the number we would bet it at
But it's worth noting Nico Collins and his importance to
this Houston offense. So Texans are five and twelve straight
up in games he either doesn't play or has one
target or fewer. And then you look inside the numbers.
In weeks one through five, Nico led the NFL in
receiving yards by over one hundred and his first read
designed target mark of thirty six was tied for six
(53:40):
most at that point.
Speaker 1 (53:41):
In the NFL.
Speaker 3 (53:42):
So Stroud was looking to him almost all the time.
Now talk about Stroud for a half second here. Weeks
one through five, he was fourteenth in EPA per play
and fifteenth in completion percentage overexpected. Last two weeks that's
down to twenty sixth in EPA per play and twenty
fourth CPOE. So just a different quarterback without his target
(54:03):
there Now, finally I will go to the Cleveland Browns.
Truly a bad low cell high spot here at Deshaun
Watson's injury, kind of hard to overstate how bad he was.
So his passing success rate was thirty three point three
percent through seven games. That was the sixteenth worst mark
of any QB in the last thirty years. Of those
(54:25):
sixteen quarterbacks, his eight point four yards gain per completion
was tied for the worst with Bobby Woyinge of the
Eagles in nineteen ninety eight. That was just the level
of quarterback play Cleveland was going through. And also to
no surprise, Cleveland became the fourth team since two thousand
to start their first seven games with out scoring twenty
points Chad College Football and NFL. Cleveland is still the
(54:49):
only team not to score twenty points in a game
this year. So it just the offense was unreal.
Speaker 1 (54:53):
And then you have a mind boggling, mind.
Speaker 3 (54:56):
Boggling Ucla was on that list before they did it,
like a week or so ago. Here comes Jamis Winston.
You went into the medical ten at one point, came
back out.
Speaker 4 (55:05):
Where was the pain?
Speaker 2 (55:06):
Jamis? Yeah, just paying It was paining everywhere. So we
gotta keep all pushing through and being Rezoli And all.
Speaker 3 (55:11):
You know about Jamis is gonna chuck it downfield. Since
twenty twenty two, his a Dot average depth of target
is eleven point six, second of seventy eight qualifying quarterbacks.
Deshaun's was seven point eight. That's a difference of four
yards downfield that Jamis is going to chuck the ball.
And yes, there's one note on Baltimore before I get
out of here. They've won four straight, scoring thirty plus
(55:32):
in each teams on those streaks just forty three percent
ats last twenty years. It's a tough spot, but it's
the right one. So Ravens by thirty.
Speaker 2 (55:40):
I guess.
Speaker 3 (55:40):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (55:42):
Yeah, but evan that same trend, Yeah, thirty plus four
straight wins applies to the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 2 (55:53):
One in one. It'll be fine.
Speaker 1 (55:59):
I like your hey, buddy. As a reminder, the Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three six five and now
new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars
in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars, sign up
using promo code Favorites the positive ten dollars. Place a
bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars and
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
(56:22):
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
(56:42):
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon
and I will return with our next episode of The
Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, seven
thirty pm Eastern to recap week eight. Download us from Spotify,
Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review you subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as
(57:03):
a gift until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds
you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care
about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four
to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I am
live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined
as always by my calls, my companion, my compadre, my BFF,
professional better So I'm in Hunter earro So I'm.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
In Hello Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Listen? I'm a professional?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
You are?
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I have not spoken since I fell asleep watching the
Bulls get blown out by the New Orleans Pelicans last night,
so I'm ready to roll. I hope it's not too
painful for our listeners. Today's o NFL Week eight Best
Bets episode, where Simon and I narrow down our five
(00:59):
picks and the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
Pickum contest presented by BET three six five. Sign up
now with Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We will also
get into the foxhol give our Tommy John Big Balls
bet of the week, discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted,
money Line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin, and so
(01:22):
much more. Bets are rolling in lines are moving, decisions
need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin
Coward likes to say, because there's a sea of money
out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
by Bet three six five and now new Bet three
sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorite,
(01:46):
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets
can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment. It's an ever ordinary. A bet three
sixty five must be twenty one or older in president
in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
(02:07):
we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during
the season. We want to hear how the wise guys
are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are.
(02:30):
The lines move based on our conversations. The pros feel
compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do
sharp calls.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
Rain telephone range.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Somebody said, maybe.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
What you do man?
Speaker 4 (02:52):
Yeah, let's run through it. I think the books and
the professionals think this is.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Going to be a bad week for the public.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
That the public is about the walk into it after
getting fat for two straight weeks. Chad so off the
top of a game I love. I don't know if
Chad's come around yet. The Rams you love them? Are
you still?
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Well, I know listen, I know the wise guys are
all over it. I know it all over it. Everyone's
been talking about it. The plus three. I'll probably bet it.
But I'm doing it because you're on it, and everyone's
saying I should be on it now everyone.
Speaker 4 (03:27):
Yeah, that was my number one big call after our
show is just make sure people take the Rams.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Listen to the show. So I'm sure we'll talk a
little bit more about that one.
Speaker 4 (03:34):
So just run through it real quick. They love the Rams,
love the Browns. Another game that you know, we talked
a little bit about love the Jags obviously the Colts.
I've been shocked by this Colts line movement, have you?
I mean, I am shocked that this is down now
at five and a lot of books.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
So well, I'm not because it was my exact decision
and I tend to move the lines.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
Yeah, but it was just it's just crazy it moved
off the key number of six. So yeah, another game
will dobvise you dive more into if we're gonna take
down our contest Miami aside, We're not really on professionals
actually love that side. I'm on the opposite of this
one here. I like Atlanta a lot of product talk.
Do you really like the Bucks in this bounce back spot?
Kind of a desperate team. I guess another game as
(04:17):
well that I'm a little decided on was the Bills
in Seahawks. Seems like a lot of the professionals love
the Bills. I guess I need to come around more
than a Mark Cooper is a big deal to them,
and that they have gotten healthier on defense, and this
actually is a nice spot.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
I know.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Evan had a piece in his article about, you know,
just the exact scenario of Josh Allen these kind of spots,
he's actually not too bad. So that's when I'm probably
not on the right side taking to the Seahawks, so
I kind of see their perspective on that one. Bears,
maybe I'll given check get the Bears in our contest,
the professional that we be, love Love the Bears in
this upcoming spot, and the last two Raiders. I don't
(04:52):
know if I've got Chad's full confidence in this Raiders pick,
but I still think at the ten ten and a
half in the contest, it's very tempting. And obviously the
last one we both like the Dallas Cowboys. We've both
seen them come down now from six and a half,
five and a half, four and a half now they're
down to four most books, so that lines are exactly
what I thought.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
It was gonna do. I think it should be three
and a half.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
It seems like that's exactly where it's heading for that
Sunday night matchup. So yeah, right now we're on the
right side of a lot of games that we really like,
and then a couple sides that, you know, maybe I
need to get a little more bullied to the other
side because I just I don't know it's hard for
me to really want to back, especially in Miami a
mis three and a half. So yeah, interesting perspective this
week from a lot of professionals.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
So betting against the public after a bad game. That's
sixty one percent since two thousand and five. There are
a couple scenarios in the in the games that we're
going to talk about that we'll cover that. But you
mentioned the public getting fat week seven, ten and four
(05:54):
against the spread, Week six ten three and one against
the spread. That does a bounce back after the public
had started in the first five weeks with its worst
start against the spread, meaning public is fifty one percent
or more of the bets on one side. It had
been the worst start for those games in our history
(06:18):
of tracking these games. The last two weeks twenty seven
and one, so huge bounce back. Someone is due for
a regression right now. Either the public is still catching
up to get to even or it is time for
the public to get slaughtered. We have learned a lot
(06:40):
this week trying to unpack our challenges. Specifically for the contest.
We've been leaning heavy into these ugly dogs, these trend
picks that tend to go against the public. We may
still do that. At least now we know it's a weakness, right,
so if we do it and we get caught, but
(07:01):
it's not our fault. It's really it's really just the numbers,
not the ball and not bouncing our way Arizona plus
three and a half at Miami. Ah, I've heard the
same rumblings. The wise Guy's loving my Haami, Miami loving
the return of two. They like the cards. They're like
betting against the cars traveling in this short week. For me, ultimately,
(07:26):
this wasn't gonna make it like I bet the cards
at three and a half. I bet it because of
the number. It wasn't because of anything else. I just
wanted to hook with Kyler, who, by the way, as
a road dog second best against the spread mark in
that spot since two thousand and three, according to Evan, Like,
we're never going to get all the trends and mashups
(07:47):
to line up, but in this one, it doesn't feel
like we really have anything other than the number.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
Yeah, I just I'll play it up on Miami, just
because I know these guys who are taken mihim here
pretty sharp, and you know they have their reasons, and
I think at three and a half. Arizona totally get it,
but at three I'll go with the Miami and they're
just how much worse can I get for this team?
Like this feels like this is it for them in
their season. That's why it feels a little bit like
two is rushing back here and that they know that
(08:15):
if they don't win this one, it's basically over right.
I mean, they're just there'd be too big of a
whole for them to get out of. So you're right,
I'm happy we're actually avoiding this game.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
I'm not. I'm not upset avoiding Atlanta minus two and
a half. It's a divisional game with road fave, not
a spot we would historically love. But again this season
home dogs three nine and one thirty eight percent, right
past two seasons, home divisional dogs, home divisional dogs, No Godwin,
(08:49):
no Mike Evans kirk off of a loss forty and
twenty six fifth best of two hundred and eighty quarterbacks
since two thousand and three. And unless you think we
can't back a road public fave starting in the twenty
(09:10):
three season until this past week, road public favorites sixty
two percent against the spread, something is going on in
the past two years that we're going to have to
decide is is it a trend? Is it a lack
of parody? Like what is happening here that we're gonna
have to unpack? I know, wise guys like the Bucks,
(09:33):
I would be with you. I still like the Falcons.
Speaker 4 (09:36):
Yeah, I still like the Falcons. But there's another routine
that we talked about the Bears. I had much rather
take where it's like, yes, that that game I could
see going a certain way, where this game we always
talk about this the NFC South, Sometimes you really never know, right,
Like this game could easily just be Tampa runs it
down Atlanta's throat and you know they never get a
going Atlanta, right, And.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
That's that's the fear here.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
That to me is what I'm looking at, where it's
like there is a path for the Bucks. We're on
that other game. I just I don't know how the
Bears uncovered and I can easily see the Bears going
up right, I can see that once Daniels is officially
that I talked about, I think that get up three
and a half. So I think we'll get good line
value on that game. Where this game i'd be shocked
(10:17):
at this point because there's so much professional money coming
in on this buck side that this number ever gets
up to three, three and a half.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
All right, This next game Tennessee at Detroit, they got
down to ten and a half. I bet it at
ten and a half. It's back at eleven. It doesn't matter.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
If you have one ass cheek and three toes, I
will beat your rass.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
You said you had this power rated closer to fourteen.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Since we spoke, the Titans have basically admitted they're done.
They've traded their best wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. They
traded one of their starting linebackers. Neither of those moves
will help them hold a first half lead, which they've
blown three times this year. They are still tied with
(11:01):
Baltimore for giving up the second most second the most
second half points this year. Jared Goff thirty and ten
against the spread indoors the past four seasons, the Lions
seventy percent against the spread the past four seasons, best
(11:22):
stretch since nineteen eighty like credible it. We've put so
much emphasis on historical trends and not enough on player
coach matchup. I wanted this to be our big balls.
You have overruled me because last week I got to
(11:43):
choose the Browns and it did not go well for us.
And by the way, I would have taken the Browns
again this week, but in our history, we have never
taken that's not true and eleven point favorite as our
big balls never.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
I can tell you a game I can remember off
the top of my head, and we used to be
able to pick Thursday night games in our contest. We
took the New England Patriots and Tom Brady as like
a I don't even know it might have been like
a thirteen point favorite on the road and he had
a last second touchdown for us to cover that number.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
So that's that's the number that just pops in my
head of like that was scarring for me.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
I don't think we ever took a big favorite since
then because it was just we needed so much luck.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Where you're that is that is your superpower, a rain
man like ability to remember every single win and loss
and moments like that.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
We talked about this.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
Though this line's number to me fell too short, it
makes me feel good that it's coming back up because
it's like I couldn't believe there was groups coming in
and bet in this Tennessee side where it's like there's
so many other dogs I'd rather invest my money. And
I'm shocked that people are trying to move this line.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
And you're right now.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
We're seeing up to eleven and a half too in
a lot of books. So that actually makes me feel
better because I'm with you. I bet at ten and
a half, bet at eleven. It's like, Okay, this number
should not be going down, that should be going up.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
And now it is.
Speaker 4 (13:03):
Matchup wise, though, we love this matchup in so many
different ways.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
For Detroit.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
We both said the only way they lose if they
beat themselves. They just have so many different ways that
beat you offensively. We know golf is due for a
letdown week. Maybe they're looking ahead to next week right
when they're playing Green Bay, and that could be another
reason they don't, you know, put it all together here.
But my model likes this. I like this, Chad likes this.
It feels like it's unavoidable.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
We're gonna have this. Lions in our contest.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Huh. So I did do a little free show sneak
peek at the lines in the contest. Lions were eleven
and a half.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Yeah, I'd be fine with that because that's that's a
dead number. Honestly.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Well, it's interesting because there were other ones that.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Of course they're gonna win this game twenty one to ten,
and we'll be like, god damn it.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
And like, look like we we've talked about the Jags,
We've talked about the Bears, We've talked about the Colts.
Like there's a lot of lines that have moved aggressively
against us since we first started talking about them, even
on Sunday. So I think it's going to be challenging.
Eleven and a half is a tough one, like we
(14:16):
rarely have put that in the contest. But you know,
I'm glad we're on the same page at least. I thought,
like this morning when we were talking about the Lions
and I was all in on it and you were hesitant,
I thought, it's because you just didn't like the game.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
So I don't think it takes balls. I'll be honest
like this, I got no reservation taking this one. Why not.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
They've been good to us this year, and like we
just said, this to me, doesn't feel like the spot
they let us down. I think it's next week that
we see Detroit kind of wavering.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
All right, Well, then guess what It's time Simon for
our big ball bet of the Week, presented by Tommy John.
If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.
Great games start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes
(15:05):
the greatest. I pulled back a little bit. Yes, I
didn't want to.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
God, we're still another half the show to do, you know, I.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
Didn't want to blow it out. Yeah, all right, we're
talking about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Look, the Jags were at
four and a half, got down to four. It's still
at four at three six five, but it's three and
a half in a lot of places. We were tempted
by Green Bay, and you got a rare Sunday night
(15:34):
sharp call saying we were on the wrong side. I
don't think that has ever happened, rain Man. You can
tell me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
Yeah, no, I mean, guys love talking shit, so of course.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
No professional has ever called you to wave you off.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
After multiple That was the more surprising part. It was
a bunch of guys, right, That was what was crazy.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
So what gives here.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
A lot?
Speaker 4 (15:57):
I think we talked about matchup wise, this isn't that
beat of a matcher for the Jaguars. Same thing with
that Rams matchup against the Rams, like surprisingly good matchup
for two teams that people perceive is bad and that
have had struggles this season, and both those teams have
suffered from just bad luck and you know, and a
couple things and bounce these teams ways. And I think
the same thing goes with the Jaguars here, and I
talked about Tank Digsby, I think is a big deal.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
This is a guy who can just take it up
the middle and you know, just thump guys. He's like
Marshawn Lynch type.
Speaker 4 (16:25):
And that's a weakness for green Bay, Like you can
run the ball in this team, and green Bay this
season has been very dependent defensively on turnovers. And I
know we have a guy walking in here in Trevor
Lawrence who does turn the ball over, but this year,
if you go back and look, he's also had some
really bad turnover luck that is regressed and should keep
on regressing. So I just like this matchup for them
(16:48):
and green Bay wise, you know, I know we can
get into the whole thing with the Florida Heat them
going down there and then obviously another look ahead spot
for them where they're playing.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Detroit next week. At a lot to like about this,
and then there was a couple of trends.
Speaker 4 (17:01):
I thought it was interesting from Evan about it's not
that big of a deal and skipping the bye week
coming back from England. Surprisingly like teams actually aren't that
bad in those type of scenarios. So we talked about
though the line to me, you should have been three
and a half. We're about to hit that breaking point
right of it flipping to being value on Green Bay,
So it's gonna be unfortunate if it is three and
(17:23):
a half of our contest. And that's what we get
for always waiting to pick on Thursday, because like I
got Cold six and a half on Tuesday in our contest,
and I got the Jaguars four and a half. So
we try to be honorable and wait here to put
our picks in. And it looks like we're gonna miss
the line value on two of these games. So I'm
opening it's still four and a half. I hope people
out there listening can still get the four because that's
(17:44):
what I bet. I have not touched anything Jags three
and a half, but I'd still do it. It's just
try to get the four. The four is such a
key number. I can't tell you any times I've been
saved by a push when it lands right on four.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Yeah, it's definitely going to be at three and a
half in the contest, I think Jack I've checked, so
it's gonna be a tough call for us. I'm not
loving the Jags at three and a half. I feel
like we're and we talked about this all the time.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
I'm want to scare you off, Chad, Well.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
How much does the line matter in the contest? Like
it isn't that often, right, but in a year in
which the final point totals have been so close, right,
the variance, the percentage value of that half point just
(18:36):
becomes that much bigger. So I'm not loving the idea
of having the Jags at three and a half.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
I wouldn't worry about that because when we talked about it.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
So far this season, I think we've had three games
that were decided at two and a half where the
hook did matter on the two and a half, and
then we've had two games that decided by the six
and a half. So we got the five and a
half for the six and a half, we either covered
or we missed.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
So I talked since two years ago.
Speaker 4 (19:02):
I just don't think three is as port as it
used to be, so I wouldn't let it totally throw
them off, like I could still see us getting the
three and a half in there. I'm just talking strictly
people putting real money down here. It's like get the
four like that's long term. That's how you protect against
that type of bullshit.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
This is a luck game, you mentioned, is it luck? Yeah,
it's the biggest luck game of the week, favoring the Jags.
For a reminder, we do the luck rankings generally sixty
percent against the spread when there is a huge gap
in luck. Nick Giffin, Sean Kerner, or Billy Ward our
analytics team put this formula together. It separates the signals
(19:42):
from the noise and can predict regression when teams are
likely to have more luck going their way and the
bad luck not going their way or going against them anymore.
The Packers are a great example of that, and you
just mentioned it. They've been feasting on turnovers, but if
you look at their underlying metrics, and you've said this
all year, their overall defense isn't that good, like amongst
(20:07):
the worst in the league and early down success rate.
Speaker 3 (20:09):
So the.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
Matchup, the way the line is moving is indicative of
the underlying stats and expectations of some bad luck not
going against the Jags anymore. So that's why it's their
big balls, big falls.
Speaker 4 (20:29):
Before the past two weeks, I would just tell the
public this is like the definition of a trap. But
they've just been stepping in a bunch of traps and
they're not getting caught, so they're the ones laughing. But
this is like everything I think of, and you as
well of, Like you're about to step in. You think
you've got a good number, Oh they're giving you even
better number.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
Now at three and a half.
Speaker 4 (20:47):
Usually this is a weary sign where you know ninety
percent of the bets, ninety percent of the money are
coming on Green Bay, and it's now moved through one
key number.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
That's a big deal.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Simon our sponsor, Tommy John. As bad as my voice
sounds right now, I'm still super comfortable because I'm wearing
Tommy John's That's not even a joke, it's a true story.
It's the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. They've changed
my life. When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better.
If you love Simon and I. If you love this show,
(21:18):
you love Tommy John, get twenty five percent off your
first order right now at Tommy John dot com slash favorites,
Say twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
All right, INDI at Houston, this was my EXAC decision.
I better at six and a half, You better at
six and a half?
Speaker 2 (21:36):
Sharp? Sharp?
Speaker 1 (21:38):
It was yeah, totally sharp. I'm sharp. It was my
EXAC decision at when it was at six. It's now
down to five. There are places where it's going to
four and a half. I don't like it as much now,
given how much come down. I do still like the matchup.
I know everyone is so fixated on Anthony Richardson and
(22:02):
how bad his completion percentage is, and it is historically bad,
it's terrible. But Jonathan Taylor returned to practice, right, yep.
If we are looking back to what we talked about
on Tuesday, where we have been making sort of blind
bets on bad teams and the number and bad quarterbacks
(22:23):
regardless of the coaching skill, all that this actually fits
the framework of what we like in a big underdog.
We think we're getting value on the number. But they've
got their best skill player behind their most dominant unit,
which is their offensive line, which is the best run
blocking unit in football. And Shane Steichen, who's a really
(22:45):
good play caller, gets his top weapon back for his
best unit. So, like, I know, Anthony Richardson like his
comps at historically Josh Freeman, Derek Anderson, JaMarcus Russell. That's
the accuracy comb still like the cults.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
Yeah, and I always try not to be too hard
on the kid because it's his ninth game the Pros,
and you know, we talked coming into it. He played
seventeen games total in his career, and it was just,
you know, we were joking before the show about bow Knicks.
The guy played, you know, feels like six years in college.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
I think in twenty eighteen he.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
Was SEC rookie or whatever it was of the year,
Freshman of the year. And it's like we Richardson didn't
have that, right, he just has not had the reps.
And you've seen bow Knicks, even Jane Daniels, a guy
who played I feel like four years in college. Like
it's a big deal like that kind of getting all
this type of reps. So me and you know the
deal with Richardson here, like we are going to be
screaming his name when it's third and three and he
(23:46):
sails the ball over a wide open guy in the flat,
Like that's the brutal part with him this season, you know.
But we always talk about the math and the numbers,
and this number was too high. I still think it's
too high, so I wouldn't be terrified putting the contest.
But again, it'd be nice to get the five and
a half over the four and a half. But it's
not that big of a deal for us, right, We're
just as happy to get it in. But how do
(24:10):
you not like this game for an upset? Like this
is just a Houston team that I think the public
is starting to realize a little bit that they're not
that great. There are some hols to this team, and
we've seen that since last year. Defense has been playing
CJ differently. Right, it's not as been as easy as
it was for the previous season rahim offensively, and we
(24:30):
talked the loss of Nico Collins to mean this matchup
is the biggest deal this guy has destroyed this Colts.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Team the past two years when he plays against them.
Speaker 4 (24:38):
And even in those games, they were always close with
Nico Collins. Now he's gone and we're getting Jonathan Taylor back,
which I think is such a huge deal against another
weakness for Houston. Like a lot of these things we
talk about, they can be run on. So I'm with you, Chad,
like you know I feel about this. I love the
Colts not only to cover this game, but pull the
upset off and wins. So I haven't waivered, but I'm
(25:00):
like you. It's like, man, we had six and a
half in the contest that would look so so nice.
So it's tough that the pros have just bet this down.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Yeah, it's interesting. You know. I log my bets in
the app and I like to check in the morning
just as like a perverse you know, makes me feel
better see how much better number? Yeah, did I get
the best of the number? And like the Colts plus
six and a half is the first bet that's listed,
and I keep seeing it go down. I'm like, I
(25:29):
feel so good it even though it means nothing like.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
People should be listening on Sunday Night Show, right, brother.
Speaker 1 (25:36):
Exactly, That's what it means, Like I see the Bears
plus one and a half, I'm like, oh my god,
are you fucking kidding?
Speaker 4 (25:41):
That one was my favorite this week. Getting that at
a plus one and a half. It wasn't just it
wasn't just up for a minute or two, it was up.
I was betting it's still won the morning, so like
it didn't flip until the next.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Morning on Monday. So that was another great one.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
Maybe you flipped it, maybe, But one trend we have
been able to count on home division faves forty five
point seven percent against the spread since twenty fifteen, So
another that one, Like we're bringing the trends in in
the right way. They're complementing. They're not driving Baltimore to Cleveland.
(26:15):
Like I threw this in because it's a big home
dog and we don't have any metrics right now telling
us to back them. But I do wonder is are
we going to get a dead cat bounce here? The
Ravens are way overvalued coming off of a short week,
Marlon Humphrey injured, Zay Flowers injured. They'll play, but the
(26:39):
Browns getting healthier, especially in the defensive backfield. Talk about
selling high like the one question is did we miss
the best of the number because we didn't get it
at ten. But Lamar is a favorite of more than three,
has been terrible. Yep, So like I don't, I don't
hate the Browns at nine and a half. I did
better at nine and a half. I didn't better at
(26:59):
it ten.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
Yeah, it's a key moving like, that's what's tough.
Speaker 4 (27:03):
I bet this at eleven eleven and a half, that's
how high it got, and now it's all the way
down to a lot of books.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
I'm seeing eight and a half now, Chad. So I
like it. But this is exactly what you've talked about. Brother.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
We're literally betting a bad team with a bad backup
quarterback against arguably the best team of football right now.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
So I hate myself. I hate myself.
Speaker 4 (27:23):
Obviously I like the Browns, but you just said we're
one and sixteen in the exact this exact spot. The
bounds have not gone our way, So I think we
should take the Browns. Obviously, it's a good number, and
you know you mentioned the injuries. The biggest one to
me is we talked about why we want to fade.
This Ravens team is a big favorite. The back door
is always going to be open. I mean, they just
(27:44):
I can't get over how bad their DC is, Like
their defense should not be that big of a drop
off from last season. It just shows how important coaching is, right,
Like it's night and day the Ravens defense, when the
best defenses in football last year and now this year.
I mean, they're giving up them most points in football,
which is crazy when you have teams like Carolina Panthers
out there.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
So yeah, it's such a big number.
Speaker 4 (28:07):
Chat, it's if me and you talk ourselves into bend
at Sunday morning put in our contest.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
People do not be shocked.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
But I am so sorry ahead of time because this
is exactly the exact game we talked.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
About avoiding because we've just been burned by it.
Speaker 1 (28:19):
You're so right. I hate myself for not even recognizing this.
I spent the first.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Time to do though.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
That's what I mean, don't You shouldn't hate yourself. I've
made a lot of money. I live a good life
betting these type of games. So it's yeah, but it's
gonna come back around the.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
First ten hours of my week on Monday, identifying and
pinpointing a problem because I'd like us to be thoughtful,
and I'd like us to improve, and I would like
us to just be good at this and be intellectually
honest about what's going right and what's going wrong, and
not just blindly bet the games we've always historically bet
because we're supposed to do it. And then I fall
(28:57):
into the freaking trap. Fall into a freaking trap. Yeah, God,
I hate myself. You know what, I don't hate. I
don't hate taking the Cincinnati Bengals. You hate it? Yeah,
I think you think I'm walking into a trap.
Speaker 2 (29:11):
No, No, Honestly, this game is a coin flip to me.
Speaker 4 (29:15):
To me, it's two teams that whoever wins this, I'd
be like, Okay, they don't suck because right now, in
my perspective, this team is that I don't think either
of these teams are that good, and they've been fortunate
to play bad teams this season and they beat up
on bad teams.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Right, both these teams.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
Have and in my mind, obviously the Eagles are way
more talented.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
You know, this Bengals team defensively, they're horrible.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
Like if if Sirianni's true to his where and the
Eagles commit to the run and they don't get down
seven to nothing and all of a sudden have Jalen
Hurts just dropping back the rest of the game, throwing
the ball fifty times. I do think they'll cover this
number and keep this close, especially at two and a half.
But my thing is, Chad, if this guy down a
one and a half, I could take. I'll take Bengals
within the contest.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
If this is one and a.
Speaker 4 (29:58):
Half in contest, I'll take that because that's a good
number in this Eagles team.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
We talk all the time Hurts as an underdog, especially
on the road.
Speaker 4 (30:06):
He is just not good statistically, like he does not
win these type of games. And you know, Eagles defense
might be starting two rookies against Joe Burrow in this
passing offense. Isn't that a huge bonus for this Bengals team.
Like if Burro's gonna carve up anyone, this should be
the type of team he'd carve up a young, inexperienced
team when he has two veteran wide receivers. So I
(30:27):
know where you're coming from this Bengals team. It's just
my fear is this Bengals team is just a bad team.
Like I get it. You beat up on the Giants
the Panthers, and you know, great, but now you're going
to play a team that we perceived to be a
legit playoff team.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
The Eagles should step up here and beat this team.
So that's just my hesitation here.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Let me see if I can convince you, because I
actually I might like this game as much as I
like the Bears. A plus one and a half. Wow,
Like I've got the better quarterback, a really good kicker
who drops bombs at less than a field goal, Joe
Burrow thanks to Evan, I know that Joe Burrow was
(31:09):
twenty two six and one when facing a team that
just covered the Eagles overall, sixty three percent against the
spread in his career, seventy percent against the spread against
teams that are over five hundred. We've seen the public
come in on the Eagles and this line has moved
(31:32):
to two and a half plus, and I think this
is big. We don't know the status of Dallas Goddard.
He might not play because of a hamstring injury. Didn't
practice yesterday. Jordan Mailatta out, so that's terrible. I listened
to Raybon and Stuckey on the Sunday six Pack this
(31:53):
morning the Action Network podcast, Raybem made the point that
Fred Johnson Jordan Mailatta is backup, allows a pressure rate
of twenty two percent, the average for left tackles six percent,
and he's going to be going against Trey Hendrickson.
Speaker 4 (32:12):
Yeah, they'll have some of the counter that though there
are no dummies. But I agree with you, it's not ideal.
But I felt the same thing last week. Why didn't
want to take the Eagles? It was like, I guess
who has a way better d line than the Cincinnati team,
the Giants, And it was neutered because they could run
the ball. And that's the key here, That's what I'm
telling you. The key to this game is if Saquan
dominates this game, the Eagles will run away over it.
(32:32):
This Bengals defense is that bad. But on the flip side,
you just said all those Joe Burrows scots are terrifying,
like Joe should beat up on this team is But
the problem is we don't know we're getting week to
week from Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
Chad.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
I mean, that's that's what the risk injury has been
this season. Some weeks it looks like old Joe, who's
starting for three hundred yards. You know, four touchdowns in
a game, and then you have a follow up week
where he can't complete third down passes. Right, he just
struggles because he has no control over the ball because
he can't feel the ball, Like that's the issue with
the grip on the ball with his wrists.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
So you know that's the pushback for me.
Speaker 4 (33:04):
But once again, Chad, if this is one and a
half on Sunday, you're feeling good about it, I'll bet
that number as well. I could be bullied and taking
Cincinnati here because I do think it's all about the
number in this matchup. Like you're right, the kicker is
a big deal in this game.
Speaker 1 (33:19):
In the NBA, there's Bullyball on the favorites, there's Bully
Bets Buffalo with Seattle. I like, I don't you mentioned it.
I'm fine if we pass it. Yeah, okay.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
I don't know what to deal with it either.
Speaker 4 (33:33):
I just know what the professionals like. They like the
bills and they like the bills of minus three. So
if you want, if you want to take the bills
of the pros, make sure you get the three before
it goes with three and a half.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
The one thing I would say is then that to
me says the professionals don't think Seattle is a very
good team, yep, because the Bills are bullies. They beat
up on the bad teams and then they get beat
by the good times the good teams. The one outlier
is the Jets, who probably are a good team, but
they're poorly coached, bad attitude, make dumb mistakes.
Speaker 4 (34:04):
It was a game that the Bills and Josh Allen
just you know, it doesn't match up all against that defense,
and that historically has been the case for him the
last couple of years. But we already talked about Josh
Allen's in god mode, no turnovers, fifteen touchdown.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
I'm skipping Chargers Saints. I don't think that'll ever to
make the contest with Chargers minus seven, which is the
number I think you lean to. I don't have an
opinion on it.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
Yeah, I'm on the Charger. But that's fine.
Speaker 1 (34:26):
We can keep it moving because, like I think, there's
other games we know we're going to want to put
in right Chicago minus two and a half, so let's
talk about it.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
Hungry Bears are violent bears.
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Jadeen Daniels did not practice on Wednesday. We both bet
the Bears at one and a half, even with the
injury to Jade Daniels. I don't love we're betting against
the line flip forty two betting against the line flip
since twenty nineteen. But Kayleb Williams has been doing special
things undefeated in the second half this year against the spread.
(34:57):
Only other person who's Patrick Mahomes How bad? How bad
will Washington be with Marcus Mariota, like you pointed it
out on Tuesday, how terrible he is. They've had twelve
punts this season, the fewest since nineteen fifty. They've been
(35:17):
perfect on fourth downs and nearly fifty percent on third downs.
All of that changes without Jayden and Daniels. So to me,
I'm fine betting the Bears because I think we have
to think about this not as a line flip, but
as a new line with the Bears is less than
a field goal.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
Yeah, and the book makers are just like me, where
it's seven points of vye from Jane Daniels to Marcus Mariota.
So like the line flip to me, makes total sense.
They need to make that flip because anyone who has
a model is going to see that this is just
an off line. So sure, what mean you might get caught?
Maybe we're stepping in here back in the Bears team, But.
Speaker 1 (35:56):
Are we in the Foxhill? Are we in the Foxhol
with the Bears?
Speaker 2 (35:58):
I'd love to be in the foxhewl on the Bear.
That'd be really nice.
Speaker 1 (36:01):
I would love to be in a foxhol with you
and the Bears.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
Let's go.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
That would be my dream foxhol me, you and the
Chicago freaking Bears. We are in the fox whole.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a
foxhole guy.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
I'm a foxhole guy. Just matchup wise, We've talked about it.
Speaker 4 (36:22):
I love the way this defense can match up against
the Washington On offense.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
We know Washington was gonna have a bunch of aggression
coming up right.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Their third down completion rate, it's impossible sustain that being
nine for nine off fourth downs. You just can't sustain
that type of consistency for the whole season, especially with
a young, inexperienced offense that they have with Jane Dales.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
Now you say, well Mario is coming, that should be different.
Speaker 4 (36:48):
I really do think Jane Doellens is that much better
than Marcus Marioder. Like that's why I'm so willing to
say the line move so much. It's just night and day.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
That's not going out on a limb.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
It's not. But people professionally wht think it is.
Speaker 4 (37:00):
Where it's like they think Mario can do a lot
of the same stuff that he does, which.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
Is, you know, being a mobile quarterback.
Speaker 4 (37:06):
And I think that there's more to jayde Daniels game
right now than Mark Smarrio. So my view of this
is just Bears are smart. Their coaching staff smart enough
they'll just stack the box and they'll force Maria to
pass the ball.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
Right.
Speaker 4 (37:17):
The key to this game will be stopping Brian Robinson
and Austin Eckler, Like you stop the run game, force
Maria to pass, especially on thirty and eights, Like that's
me and Chat are going to make our money on
thirty and eights against Mariota, Like that's where we want
to be. Where he's got to pass the ball over
ten yards and we're going to get a either stupid
pass or a tip pass. Get some turnovers here with
this Bear secondary that's been so good this season offensively,
(37:40):
Bears I can't find the weakness in the matchup for
them against this Washington team. Like Washington this year has
been lucky that they've been up in so many leads
because it's easy for them to pin their ears back
and just rush the passer right, and that will not
be the case here. I think the Bears be able
to keep them off bound, especially if this game is close,
and the fact that it's still under three is the
key to me. Like, I just like that number a
(38:01):
lot at two and a half. So yeah, people can
tell listen to this. It's one of my favorite Chalker
sides of the week, is this Bears matchup, especially coming
off the bye week.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
I've been trying to figure out which Chalky game, which
public game we're going to put in. I'm surprised that
you are like this so much more than back in
Joe Burrow. It just it strange to me. I mean,
one of those games is not going to make it.
Speaker 4 (38:26):
Say Joe Burrow in twenty twenty two. This is Joe
Burrow in twenty twenty four. The guys the different quarterback.
Speaker 1 (38:32):
What I'm saying is one of these games will not
make it into our final five. And on Sunday night.
It will be a fascinating conversation. Fascinating Matt Mitchell, do
not let us forget to talk about the Bengals or
the Bears on Sunday night. All right, Kansas City at
Las Vegas plus nine and a half the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (38:57):
The autumn win is a rat of pillaging.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Just for five my own games come down from ten.
Look Tuesday morning, we had three double digit favorites. Now
we're down to one. The Browns have come down, the
Raiders have come down. We've bet the Raiders. We bet
them at plus ten. This is a massive pros Joe's split.
We're doing this signmon in spite of the fact even
(39:23):
though Mahomes is only forty eight percent against the spread
as a favorite of more than three nine, six and
two the past two seasons. In spite of the fact
public road faves sixty one percent against the spread the
past two years, and don't forget sixteen and two since
the start of Week five, In spite of the fact
Home Division dogs three nine to one this year thirty
(39:45):
eight percent since the start of twenty three, only fifty
one percent since twenty twenty. None of those are good
road teams. Sixty one percent against the spread this season,
one in sixteen. We are in this exact spot this season,
(40:07):
And in spite of the fact the Chiefs just eliminated
their biggest issue, which was getting a dependable receiver. In
spite of the fact mahomes eleven to seven and one
against the spread against divisional opponents, like I know, this
(40:28):
is one of our big dog plays. I like Cleveland
more than I like the Raiders.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
That's fair in my eyes. There, it's the exact same.
It's the same as last week with the Browns and
the Giants. There's no difference to me. We're just playing
the numbers here in the scenario, in the situation, And
just like those games I liked last week, this week,
I like both matchups for these big old dogs. I
like the matchup for the Raiders, not just defensively, all offensively.
Speaker 2 (40:52):
But I get the hesitation.
Speaker 4 (40:54):
Chat we're back in the Raiders team that you know
you said it last week is historical. No team has
ever turned the ball over whatever it was, four times
and just had all these awful things happen, they still
cover the number just because their coach kicked the random
field goal. So I get where you're coming from this
Raiders team. It's not for the faint of heart, and
I get why we might end up passing on this
(41:14):
one just because it was ten and a half in
the contest key number. Now it's down to nine and
a half in contest, which is a big deal to me,
Like if we're not gonna get the best of the number,
especially with the dog shit team like this Raiders team,
it's like, Okay, I could be bullied off of it,
but you you being scared of Hopkins is one of
the funnier things that's happened this week. You acting like, oh,
I got a bad number. This number is gonna go
(41:35):
up now because Hopkins joined the team. It's like, in
what world does Chad think Hopkins is moving this by
even half a point.
Speaker 1 (41:41):
I don't think it's moving. I don't think it's moving
it by half a point.
Speaker 4 (41:44):
But you're acting like you got a bad number at ten,
as if it was going to keep going up, and
it's like.
Speaker 1 (41:48):
No, no, no, no, I bet the number at ten. I'm
glad I got it at ten. I'm thinking we got
a bad number at nine and a half or lower
for the contest because you say we bet this number,
but betting this number has not worked for us, and
betting this number for the past two years has been
a bad number. So it's not an automatic at less
(42:10):
than ten for me to say, yes, this has to
be in the contest. And when you think about the Browns, like,
at least the Browns have a dominant defensive end, they
have an all Pro cornerback in Denzel Ward. They have
like an offensive line that is getting healthier. They have
a better coach than the Raiders have. So those are
(42:34):
the factors that to me are making me lean Browns
more than Raiders.
Speaker 4 (42:39):
No, I get it, you're a great salesman, but at
the end of the day, both these teams are bad.
They're both playing with what we presume to be backup quarterbacks,
and it's just there is, truly, to me, no difference.
It's just I just bet the numbers. Chad scared of it,
but it's like, this is what I do. So it's like, yeah,
the losses sucked, but I still look at it that
it's just been bad luck, bad balances. So it's like
(43:01):
I try not to have reacted too much. Yeah, if
you don't want to put this Raiders one, and you
rather take the Browns. I like the Browns as well,
so it's like, I'm not going to fight you off
that one. My whole point of the best of the
Number is saying that ten and a half is a
big deal and that we're not getting ten and a
half is the reason why I wouldn't put the Raiders
in now. But what I still bet them at nine
and a half. Yeah, I still would take them at
nine and a half. It's just not as confident as
(43:22):
I was as I was on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (43:24):
I love when you patronize me during.
Speaker 4 (43:25):
The show, well just because sometimes you say things, I'm
just like, this guy's out of his mind.
Speaker 2 (43:30):
This guy is out of his mind.
Speaker 1 (43:33):
All right, Let's get to a game that we agree with,
Dallas at San Francisco. We like Dallas at plus four.
It was at five and a half on Sunday. It
was four and a half when you made it. Simon says,
this is a true Joe bro split Cowboys off a bye.
(43:54):
From a sort of atmosphere point of view, couldn't be
worse for them right now. Not only was Jerry Jones
a couple of weeks ago trying to threaten Cowboy's broadcasters
because they were asking him hard questions. This week, he's
calling out Mike McCarthy's play calling a coach he could
(44:18):
have fired after they were blown out at home in
the playoffs. Yeah, but decided to keep a coach who
he didn't support by signing anybody of any value in
the off season. We're still backing him because San Francisco,
I don't know who they're putting on the field. So
we like the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (44:38):
Yeah, and we know the numbers on DAK. Dak is struggled,
struggle as a dog.
Speaker 4 (44:42):
But luckily I haven't had some great stuff in there
about McCarthy off of bye a week and same with
Dak on extended rest that they've actually performed really well
when they have extra time to prepare for these teams.
And you know, we all know the stats right this
forn ire thing without uh they you know, Debo and
without Ayuk and without Christian McCaffrey, Like we just we
(45:03):
talked about it, right, they're gonna struggle in the red zone.
That to me will be the difference in this game.
That's why this spread feels too big. That's why I
think the Cowboys will keep it close. Because you say,
what you want about Dak he gets them down there.
He's for the most parts that I'll finish a lot
of these drives and a lot of their losses kind
of come because of their defense. Right now, that'll get
stops here, I think about it, get stops like as
(45:23):
banged up as there defensively, you can't tell me the
forty nine ers are gonna be okay offensively, Like the
injuries have to catch up to them, and we've seen
they have. Right They're three and fourth this point. So
it just feels like another spot that I'm gonna take
the dog. I'm gonna take the dog to win outright, Like,
I just love this spot for this Dallas team. So
once again a number that I'm hoping we get four
(45:44):
and a half in contest. If it is three and
a half, I don't mind it. That's why I think
the number should be. I still think there's value there.
So this is a classic case of man, this this
this team makes you scary to bet on this Cowboys
team because they've been so bad this year.
Speaker 2 (45:59):
But we just have to trust the number and trust
the spot, right Chad.
Speaker 1 (46:02):
I do I trust this number. I trust the quarterback.
I am worried about the Niners and their injuries. It's
it's you know. Raybon had a great stat on the
show that he did this morning. Per Raybon, a third
of party's targets yards and touchdowns, where with Christian McCaffrey
(46:25):
and Brandon Ayuk. If you don't have debo, that number
goes up to fifty percent. So at some point, you're right,
it just catches up with you if you've got none
of your weapons. And Kittle is banged up. So we'll
be on the Cowboys. Cowboys will be in the contest.
I think we got a really interesting list going here
(46:48):
between the Cowboys have.
Speaker 2 (46:49):
A couple of favorites we like because that's been our
Achilles Hill this season. To me.
Speaker 1 (46:54):
We like the Bears, we like the Lions, we Slash,
I like Cincy, but we also like Dallas. We also
like Indy. We also like Jacksonville. We like Cleveland. We
like the Raiders. It's gonna be It's gonna be fun.
It's gonna be fun.
Speaker 4 (47:12):
Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky, in the heart
of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary
football players.
Speaker 2 (47:22):
They are the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1 (47:26):
Each week we give out a two team money line
underdog parlay Bet three six five boost the odds and
highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.
Remember both games are eligible for the Bet three sixty
five early payout promo, where your money line pick gets
marked as a win if that team takes a seventeen
(47:48):
point lead, even if they lose. So if you want
to bet this, bet it at bet three sixty five.
The boost did parlay, no surprise. If you've been listening
Dallas Cowboys Indianapolis Colts, go to those game pages at
bet three six five to find the boosted parlay. Go
to the Colts, Go to the Cowboys. You'll find the boost,
(48:08):
all right, simon our money line underdog round Robin.
Speaker 4 (48:15):
There will come up heay nay Halla, lou yo wanna
pay day.
Speaker 2 (48:19):
There will come up.
Speaker 3 (48:21):
Pay day some day.
Speaker 2 (48:22):
Some day there will come up heayday.
Speaker 4 (48:25):
Halla lou yo wanna payday.
Speaker 2 (48:28):
I will come up pay day some day.
Speaker 1 (48:32):
I I have some ideas you ready, yes, sir, well,
I'm not putting the Panthers on there, I'll tell you
right now. But I did put the Patriots. I put
the Browns.
Speaker 2 (48:43):
I like the Browns. I don't like the Patriots, all right.
Speaker 1 (48:46):
I put the Colts, I put the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (48:49):
Love it, Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (48:52):
Interesting okay, Jags.
Speaker 4 (48:55):
Uh, Raiders, Raiders okay? No, I was gonna say for
the last one, should we go with the Bucks?
Speaker 2 (49:04):
No?
Speaker 1 (49:05):
I had Raiders?
Speaker 2 (49:05):
Actually you did?
Speaker 3 (49:07):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (49:09):
I love if that in the Browns hit, that alone
would cover the round robin.
Speaker 1 (49:13):
So I do love the payout, all right, So let's
do the Raiders. Raiders, Browns, Colts, Cowboys, Jags are our
moneyline underdog round Robin. Before we get to Simon's biggest bets,
get excited, We're releasing a very short bonus episode of
(49:36):
the podcast. Saturday morning. We sat down with comedian producer
writer Gambler, popular New York sports fan Kid Marrow. It
was a riot, Simon, and I didn't want it to end.
It's true. Be sure to check it out. We promise
you'll like it. Simon. Give me your biggest bets.
Speaker 4 (49:58):
Sure, Cowboys as people, Oh love them, Bears people know
love it. I was the Colts, but now this numbers
move so and much people I wouldn't chase. I wouldn't
chase this as much as I was, this was gonna
be one of my bigger ones. Now that it's down
blow six, I still like it, It's just not gonna
be one of my biggest bets. Still love Jaguars A
plus four if that number stays there going into Sunday,
(50:20):
no doubt about it. And then the final one, of course,
the Los Angeles Rams.
Speaker 1 (50:25):
Wow. All right, so a lot of people be listening
to this after the Thursday night game. But that's big
scooch Roulette. You're five and two, you have a commanding
three game lead. Who's your scooch Roulette?
Speaker 3 (50:38):
When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
Let's play scooch Roulette.
Speaker 4 (50:48):
Man, I have so many games I love, you know what,
I'm trying to just get it over with. Get the
six and two tonight. Gave me the Rams plus three.
Speaker 1 (50:55):
Give me the Cincinnati Bengals, You fool.
Speaker 2 (50:59):
That's your scooter left pic check. Come on.
Speaker 4 (51:02):
Oh and before we move on to my guy Evan people,
Sunday morning, me and Chad do a show on YouTube
or in the action app called Convince Me. Just like
this show. It's free this season. I think last week
I went I went three and oh on my bonus
bedit so I was four and oh I'm fourteen and
seven on the season, so sixty seven percent for the season.
(51:24):
On my picks, all free Gushulis is sixty seven percent
for the season.
Speaker 2 (51:28):
Chris Raybaugh, So you have two guys.
Speaker 4 (51:30):
On the same show, or give it out free winners
every Sunday, wake up, latch our fucking show and make money.
I cannot believe our numbers aren't even bigger than this show.
It's just free money in Sunday morning.
Speaker 2 (51:43):
What are you people doing? So?
Speaker 4 (51:45):
Yeah, we've been really hot. It's been really fun. Check
us out Sunday morning.
Speaker 1 (51:49):
Convince me all the all the stuff, none of the fluff.
The only pregame show. It focuses on the true stuff.
All right, It's time to bring in our director of research,
Evan Abrams. Make us feel good. By the last word
with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
Speaker 3 (52:06):
Yeah, I wanted to take over for you multiple times
during this show chat. I feel bad, but we're gonna
get there for you.
Speaker 1 (52:11):
Let me tast on. It doesn't hurt at all.
Speaker 2 (52:14):
That's good enough, just hurts the list.
Speaker 3 (52:15):
It makes us feel better at least. All right, So
our bet Labs database here at the Action Network goes
back to two thousand and three in the NFL. So
my trivia question at the moment is who is the
most profitable coach against the spread on extended rest? Good
for you, guys, it is Mike McCarthy twenty five, eighteen
and three with the Packers, even better with Dallas thirteen
and five against the spread with Dallas when he's an
(52:37):
underdog on extended rest fourteen six and one. So I
can understand why you guys are interested in that Dallas
San Francisco spot. Talking about your Bears for a second,
this is just going to be playing and simple, and
I think I've actually used this one on this show before,
but teams off of bye versus a team not just
playing and simple, And this number is pretty short still
(52:57):
is fifty six point one percent straight up since that
two thousand and three number. That's over six hundred game
sample size if they if the team off the Bay
is above five hundred thirty five and fifteen straight up
seventy percent since twenty twenty, So pretty decent spot for
those Bears. Now you had mentioned the Colts, and I
know that number has gotten a little out of whack
(53:18):
in terms of the number we would bet it at
But it's worth noting Nico Collins and his importance to
this Houston offense. So Texans are five and twelve straight
up in games he either doesn't play or has one
target or fewer. And then you look inside the numbers.
In weeks one through five, Nico led the NFL in
receiving yards by over one hundred and his first read
designed target mark of thirty six was tied for six
(53:40):
most at that point.
Speaker 1 (53:41):
In the NFL.
Speaker 3 (53:42):
So Stroud was looking to him almost all the time.
Now talk about Stroud for a half second here. Weeks
one through five, he was fourteenth in EPA per play
and fifteenth in completion percentage overexpected. Last two weeks that's
down to twenty sixth in EPA per play and twenty
fourth CPOE. So just a different quarterback without his target
(54:03):
there Now, finally I will go to the Cleveland Browns.
Truly a bad low cell high spot here at Deshaun
Watson's injury, kind of hard to overstate how bad he was.
So his passing success rate was thirty three point three
percent through seven games. That was the sixteenth worst mark
of any QB in the last thirty years. Of those
(54:25):
sixteen quarterbacks, his eight point four yards gain per completion
was tied for the worst with Bobby Woyinge of the
Eagles in nineteen ninety eight. That was just the level
of quarterback play Cleveland was going through. And also to
no surprise, Cleveland became the fourth team since two thousand
to start their first seven games with out scoring twenty
points Chad College Football and NFL. Cleveland is still the
(54:49):
only team not to score twenty points in a game
this year. So it just the offense was unreal.
Speaker 1 (54:53):
And then you have a mind boggling, mind.
Speaker 3 (54:56):
Boggling Ucla was on that list before they did it,
like a week or so ago. Here comes Jamis Winston.
You went into the medical ten at one point, came
back out.
Speaker 4 (55:05):
Where was the pain?
Speaker 2 (55:06):
Jamis? Yeah, just paying It was paining everywhere. So we
gotta keep all pushing through and being Rezoli And all.
Speaker 3 (55:11):
You know about Jamis is gonna chuck it downfield. Since
twenty twenty two, his a Dot average depth of target
is eleven point six, second of seventy eight qualifying quarterbacks.
Deshaun's was seven point eight. That's a difference of four
yards downfield that Jamis is going to chuck the ball.
And yes, there's one note on Baltimore before I get
out of here. They've won four straight, scoring thirty plus
(55:32):
in each teams on those streaks just forty three percent
ats last twenty years. It's a tough spot, but it's
the right one. So Ravens by thirty.
Speaker 2 (55:40):
I guess.
Speaker 3 (55:40):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (55:42):
Yeah, but evan that same trend, Yeah, thirty plus four
straight wins applies to the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 2 (55:53):
One in one. It'll be fine.
Speaker 1 (55:59):
I like your hey, buddy. As a reminder, the Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three six five and now
new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars
in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars, sign up
using promo code Favorites the positive ten dollars. Place a
bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars and
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
(56:22):
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
(56:42):
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon
and I will return with our next episode of The
Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, seven
thirty pm Eastern to recap week eight. Download us from Spotify,
Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review you subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as
(57:03):
a gift until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds
you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care
about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four
to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Clifford Show
The Clifford Show with Clifford Taylor IV blends humor, culture, and behind-the-scenes sports talk with real conversations featuring athletes, creators, and personalities—spotlighting the grind, the growth, and the opportunities shaping the next generation of sports and culture.