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October 27, 2024 41 mins

After a wild finish in Washington, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter once again join forces to discuss all things betting for NFL Week 8. Together they talk about Cleveland's cover, rock bottom for Tennessee, Gardner Minshew walking through the back door and so much more. We get a recap of all their weekly picks, good and bad, as they take accountability before Sunday Night Football kicks off between Dallas and San Francisco. Plus, we get their early looks at NFL Week 9. 

And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
The Favorites. The podcast presented by BET three sixty five.
We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Live from
our Tommy John Home studios. I am Chad Milman. We
are sweating the end of this Bears game live along
with you. The Bears on the one yard line, down
by five. We got this game. It's one of our
five picks. This is our Sunday Night episode. We're reviewing

(00:31):
the fhaves, five picks we put into the contest. We're
gonna dissect why we left some games out. We're gonna
preview the early lines we already like for week nine.
I'm joined as always by my cost my companion Mike
and Padre might be ff professional better Simon hun there.

Speaker 2 (00:44):
Hello, so I'm in. Hello Chad. What a good day, bro, They.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
Dude, It's been a great day. It'll be even better
as soon as the Bears score as long as they
touch that. The fact they did not give the ball
to an off lineman backfield for the first time all
season makes me feel like they did that on purpose,
just so they can have so little time left on

(01:10):
the clock. The Bears take a one point lead, pending
what I match? What's that?

Speaker 2 (01:16):
The damn we needed that.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
We needed that, we needed that. It's not over yet, obviously. Uh,
there's still time left on the clock. But boy, but
bears like, we're gonna get to it. We're gonna get
to it. This has been a sweat of a game.
And I freaking love this team. I love this team
so much. I love their moxie on defense. They never

(01:38):
ever quit. They're going for the two point conversion right now,
there are twenty three seconds left in the game. Oh,
nice shovel pass for the two point conversion. Oh my goodness,
Oh my freaking goodness, Simon, I'm not gonna lie. This
has been a glorious day. We're four and oh on
the day we got the Cowboys left tonight.

Speaker 2 (01:59):
Yeah, five and a half. Chad, Jesus Christ, Oh my god,
I can't believe you just did that.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
I can't believe. I can't believe I just did that.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Oh man, I will say, before we came on, you
were dead inside for a second there. That offensive lineman
killed Chad. People don't realize before we come on, we're
on here for fifteen minutes. Chad almost curled up into
a little ball in the corner there.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
Why not, I did I actually had to put all
of you guys on mute because normally we're watching than
sweating the end of these games, and like someone is
always ahead and someone is always behind, and someone was talking,
and I'm like, I cannot listen to any of this
fucking drivel. Right now, I'm putting everybody on mute. I
don't want to know what's happening. It was excruciating when

(02:49):
that guy fumbled that ball. We're gonna get in it.
I will tell you this. There were multiple times today
when I was watching the Jacksonville Jaguars where I was
feeling disrespected, ignored, as the kids like to say, as
though you were not hearing me. Today. Specifically, I felt

(03:11):
like that at halftime of the Jags game. I felt
like that at around four PM of the Jags game,
I felt that way againnered out of about four h
nine pm Eastern. I will explain what I mean in
a moment. Catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube.
For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us

(03:32):
a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by BET
three sixty five and now new BET three six five,
customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites, deposit
ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can

(03:52):
be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At bet three six five,
I must be twenty one or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older.
In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditions retrictions apply.

(04:16):
We are still sweating this game. We got eighteen seconds
left at second and ten. So as I keep this
game on out of the corner of my vision, I
will explain to people when you and I were making
the final picks today. We originally made our picks on Thursday.

(04:37):
We had the Bears minus two and a half. By
Sunday morning, with the news that Jad and Daniel took
play for Washington. The line was Bears plus a half point.
Obviously we couldn't keep the Bears in as two and
a half point favorites, but we also had the Lions
at minus eleven and a half. On Thursday. I loved it.
I loved it. I loved it. I loved it. On
Sunday morning, it was twelve and a half. I still

(04:59):
loved it. You still liked it. So we had to decide.
Jadan Daniels scrambling around, throwing across the field. Someone catches
it for a first down and they got a time out.
So now it's five seconds left. They got five seconds left.
On Sunday morning, the Lions line was twelve and a half.
We had to decide were we going to resubmit for

(05:21):
the contest when we had to accept all new lines.
So if we want to get the Bears plus a half,
we got to also take the Lions minus twelve and
a half. We had to decide if we wanted to
go with the Lions as massive faves. We decided to
take them out. Instead. We put in the Browns plus
seven and a half, which we both loved. Then we

(05:41):
had Cleveland Bears Jags Colts, Cowboys, all dogs which we
don't like either. Simon said to me, which game would
you take out? What did I say to you?

Speaker 2 (05:52):
Jags?

Speaker 1 (05:53):
I hated the Jags all week. Of all the dogs
that we had, Yeah, the one we had been losing
most often. It is the coaching mismatch, the QB mismatch,
a team that doesn't have anything at an elite level
anywhere in its units, like the Browns definitely do, the

(06:14):
Colts definitely do. Like this was a bad matchup for us.
We've been talking about it all week. But you loved it.
Kerner loved it and convinced me. I hated it. I
have not made a single bet on that game. That's
what I said. Hold on last play of the game,
Jayden Daniels' is back. He's scrambling, The Bears are rushing,
someone's holding a guy. He's still scrambling. What's gonna happen?

(06:36):
He's gonna throw.

Speaker 2 (06:37):
It comes down to one last play.

Speaker 1 (06:40):
Just throw it already, he's throwing it up.

Speaker 2 (06:42):
Here comes the hail Mary, with the game on the line.

Speaker 1 (06:45):
Does someone catch it? Oh my god, he made it?

Speaker 2 (06:47):
Oh my god, Oh my goodness.

Speaker 3 (06:56):
You're a mush uh poor Chad, uh uh this I.

Speaker 1 (07:08):
How is this possible?

Speaker 3 (07:09):
Is that?

Speaker 2 (07:10):
Are they saying it's good? It's a catch?

Speaker 1 (07:12):
Yeah? How the fuck did this just happen?

Speaker 2 (07:15):
You know why it happened. You've gambled long enough, you counted,
you count your exit.

Speaker 1 (07:20):
You just slipped out. It just slipped out.

Speaker 2 (07:23):
I know as soon as you did it, though we
knew what was going to happen. It's a cool game,
my friend. So I want to start from the top
again for our three and one week.

Speaker 1 (07:34):
We're now three and one. You laughed at me when
I said I wanted I cannot believe this.

Speaker 2 (07:41):
I can't either. It hurts.

Speaker 1 (07:43):
How how did this happen? Well, they couldn't knock it down.
It went right off his hands.

Speaker 2 (07:54):
Now it's brutal.

Speaker 1 (07:55):
That is that is excruciating. I got to turn that off.
I can't watch that right now. I can't watch those anymore.
Oh my god. Anyway, you said about the Jags and
the Lions, you feel more strongly about the Jags. If
it loses, I'll own it. It's great for the show.

Speaker 2 (08:19):
Yeah, it's just I was just say. It's the classic
thing of trusting the number. It doesn't always work out
for me. But this week, trust the number on this game,
trust the number on the Raiders game they come through.
I know there they were one in sixteen coming to
this year this week, but it's just I told you,
we just had bad luck, bad bounces, and that's that's gambling.

(08:42):
Like it's just part of the part of it. And
I don't overreact to it. And you know, ideally we
want to have favorites in, but you're tough to get
on favorites like I liked Atlanta. You never got around
on Atlanta, which I get. It's never fun taking these
chalk favorites, so.

Speaker 1 (08:59):
I'd love to try to toy was troyd had ninety
of the tickets.

Speaker 2 (09:02):
I agree, and we both agree. We both liked it.
At the end of the day, I think even the
Chicago and I never would have taken this one out.
I liked the number. I liked that Daniels was banged up.
I didn't think they'd be good offensively. The only one
I really thought we would take out, honestly was the Cowboys,
just because of them getting all the guys back from injury.
But you know, once we got all those crazy stats
by mccarthyoff Byes, this is actually not the bet of

(09:25):
the matchup for them. We were kind of stuck there,
so I agree. I think it sucks we didn't have
Detroit in there because we loved it all week. We
bet it all week, and that was, like you said,
I felt what you felt. But the other way, like
they had I think it was forty one to ten
and Golf had like twenty eight yards passing.

Speaker 1 (09:45):
Passing in the whole game, right, But Flowers.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
Where it was like that was a no brainer that
you talked about all week that I also liked, and
it was just like we we've been messing up taking
those ones out. It's like, how do we not leave
that one in? So luckily, Yeah, you're right, got lucky.
Jack came down covered the number that exactly what I
thought was gonna happen in that game happen, honestly, Like
it came down to the final couple of possessions with

(10:08):
the Jaguars, and you talked about it like this is
life betting bad teams. The Jaguars made me pull my
hair out like five times in that game. They're just brutal.
Between the penalties and the dumb plays by Trevor Lawrence,
all of it. But they find their way to these numbers.
That's why we always talk about all these key numbers.
It landed right on three. We got the number three
and a half. It was It was a fun bet

(10:29):
when you bet those type of games that lands right
on the number.

Speaker 1 (10:32):
The public did finally come back down to earth a
little bit today. Yeah, the Jacks covered against the public favorite,
The Colts covered against a public favorite, the Cards one
against a public favorite, the Pats and the Browns one
outright against very big public favorites. Feels like until Jaden

(10:55):
Daniels just hit that miracle pass, all was right with
the world again. The Jags are just a bad team,
they really are. And Trevor Lawrence he's just not a
very good quarterback.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
Like he's consistent. I'd say that there.

Speaker 1 (11:10):
Was a play third and eight early in the game.
His guy is supposed to run an out. He throws
it to the middle of the field, and then he's
yelling at the guy for not running it out, But like,
why are you yelling? Why are you throwing it to
the middle of the field though, Yeah, like throw it
to where you want the guy to be. And then
on the very next drive he throws a pick from

(11:31):
deep in his own territory. And this JAG's team, by
the way, this is this is the idea. This is
like the identity of this team. Bad quarterbacking, bad coaching.
They got the Pack fourth and five for a long
field goal. They touched the ball against the center before
they snapped the ball. The Pack get a first down,

(11:51):
like it is just an undisciplined team. At four PM,
the Lions were up fifty two to fourteen. The Jags
are down seven with the ball. I was feeling very unheard, simon.
And at four o nine, the Jags gave up a
fifty yard fifty one yard pass to the Packers. The

(12:12):
Packers got the ball at the Jags fifteen. I'm like,
gonna they're gonna score a touchdown here. At that point,
I was very very upset because the Lions game was
over fifty to fourteen. In the edit, all worked out.
This one felt more lucky than a good handicap. It
felt like we got lucky playing the number.

Speaker 2 (12:29):
You could literally say that every week about every game.

Speaker 1 (12:31):
Did you heat It's like a second.

Speaker 2 (12:35):
No, It's that's just how it is. Every week. Brother,
You need I talk about all the time. We need luck.
It's like, I can only do so much work at
the end of the day. You need things to balance
our way. Like, did we get lucky in that game
that when Jordan Love went out, they started playing better
with their backup quarterback. All of a sudden, Green Bay
found my identity when there's running the ball down the
Jaguars throat and it was like, I agree with you.

(12:57):
That's when I first got nervous. I was like, can't
account for this. This theres a wrench to the whole thing.
But again, it's just I've done it long enough, brother,
you just got to trust the numbers. It's it's always
going to come back around. We've seen it all, We've
been around it all. Yeah, that was even that. I mean,
we get we want to get into the Colts game.

Speaker 1 (13:16):
Well, yeah, let's talk about the Colts because.

Speaker 2 (13:18):
Because that was just the same exact thing, right, So that.

Speaker 1 (13:20):
That was like my side that one can we can
either say that was a really good handicap or we
got totally lucky, because.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
But that's that you could say that for every game.

Speaker 1 (13:31):
Right, they played a near perfect first half. They were
tied ten to ten somehow with the Colts backed up
deep in their own territory less than a minute left.
I'm third and three. Shane Steichen, who we love, we
love because he makes the right call and he's a
good play caller, decides to have Anthony Richardson throw it.
Of course it's picked. Of course the Texan score. Of
course they go up seventeen. What the freak Shane Steiken?

(13:54):
Like that, You've got Jonathan Taylor and you've got the
best run blocking unit in the league, and you are
running all over them. You're going into half ten ten
as a six point underdog. Why are you throwing the
ball deep in your own territory?

Speaker 2 (14:08):
And that? I mean, I don't know, but you I
thought we were dead after that? Yeah, like that, like
you're going to halftime now and your quarterback at that
point I think was again Evan had an amazing tweet
about it. I think there he was one for fifteen
passing or something insane, and you know that was just
a classics two of fifteen. That was kind of thing
I always like, all right, this is where I can't

(14:31):
just play the numbers in these spots like there's got
you were right about that. I got to look more
into it. And then of course it comes down to
lands right on three. This type of game that you
just bet it that way because Houston did have it
is different without Nico Collins, something we handicapped and you
can run the ball, which we talked about. Jonathan Taylor
ran it down their throats. So Anthony Richardson is just
a wild card. But this Colts team covers. I mean,

(14:54):
they're one of the best covering teams of football this season.
On the flip side, Houston is terrible this year against
the spread. So it's a classic thing of just trusting
the number and the public overreacting to Houston being one
of the best teams in football. They're really good, I
just don't think they're one of the best teams in football,
and that's why we played that number. It's like, okay,
if they're a juggernaut like Detroit, they roll that team there,

(15:15):
Like that's the type of game you rolling, right if
you're a really good team, and the Houston has just
not been that team because they've been unhealthy. They're just
losing key guys. I mean, Digs went down as well. Ye,
So yeah, that was a great bet though, Like I
really thought, then we're gonna win it. Especially in that
defender scooped that bullup and took it all the way
for a touchdown. It was like, there we go, there's
that upset we thought we were gonna get today. But yeah,

(15:37):
unfortunately we need Richard to make a drive and he
just couldn't do it, and then got didn't go to
overtime because I knew for a fact we were gonna
lose if that went to overtime. So yeah, luckily it
just ended on the three.

Speaker 1 (15:47):
The Colts had one hundred and sixty five yards rushing.
They averaged six point three yards per carry. Yeah, Jonathan
Taylor rushed for more than one hundred yards in his
first game back. That's how they got back into it
in the second half, and I'm one of the most
dominant drives. It ended because Anthony Richardson muffed a handoff

(16:07):
and then fumbled the ball and it went so far
back they were out of field goal range. Like the
more the ball is in his hands, the less of
a chance they have. I was like that fumble that
they had between c. J. Stroud and Joe Mixon, which
was around two minutes left, the Colts recover that. If

(16:28):
they don't recover that, the Texans kick a field goal.
We don't cover that game because it's a six point
number and the number for us in the contest was
four and a half. We would have won our bets
because we bet the Colts at six and a half,
but the Colts would not have gotten down the field,
and if they did, they were gonna have to go
for a touchdown. There's no way they're scoring a touchdown,
so we would have lost that. And I guess, I

(16:50):
guess if we believe this was a great handicap, which
I do in my heart believe it, I guess we
have to believe the Jags was a great.

Speaker 2 (16:58):
Handicap or I don't believe. I know, or the.

Speaker 1 (17:03):
Games you're just finally playing out as they're supposed to
play out.

Speaker 2 (17:06):
It's just you play the numbers. Brother, and you not
that you're overthinking stuff a little bit, but you are.
You're in your own head. You're just some of your
reads are very questionable. That's why I made funny about
your Bengals, because you were all over the Colts. That
was a good read. Play that number. You're all over
the Browns, that was a good read. Play that number. Instead,
you're playing a coin flip game like the Bengals. You
love that game, which never made sense all week. So

(17:27):
it's like you're just you're making the right reads, but
you're also in your head a little bit where you're
doing out of characteristic Like we on this show, we
never bet the Bengals in that spot, Like that's just
that number was such a stinky number. So I'm leaving
on a couple of things where it's like we're dodging
some bullets. But there's also some types some games that
were owed. Right. We've had just had bad luck early

(17:49):
in the year with a lot of stuff, and today
the luck obviously not with the Chicago game, but every
other game the luck a lot of things bounced start away.
So that's that's just how it is. It all comes
back around eventually.

Speaker 1 (18:00):
Oh my god, that Bears game. So one more game,
the Browns Ravens. This one we did. Now like we
love the Browns all week. We liked their coaching, We
like Jamis more than DeShawn, We liked the fact they
have a dominant defense. We liked it. The Ravens did
what the Ravens do, which is give up a ton
of points in the second half. They gave up twenty

(18:22):
three points in the second half. Like Ross Talker, who
was one of our buddies, was talking about how all
season the Ravens defensive efficient inefficiencies and deficiencies show up
on film. For the second half this year, they don't
know what they're doing. They're confused too often at the
snap of the ball. And then the Ravens won. I

(18:44):
didn't expect them to win.

Speaker 2 (18:46):
What I really expect Browns.

Speaker 1 (18:49):
I didn't expect the Browns to win. I expected him
to cover. What I really expected was once the Ravens
took the lead, with Jamis to throw a pick six
and us to end up end up not even covering
the game. That's kind of what I was expecting.

Speaker 2 (19:03):
Yeah, And it was a great game. And all of
a sudden he had that sack, strip sack. They go
down and score a touchdown, Lamar does and it's like
that the first time. Oh no, yeah, it's ten to six. Now,
hopefully this doesn't turn the tide of this game. And
it didn't. Winston came out and just kept throwing it downfield,
Like I just it felt so good to have him
on the right day because it's when it's going well

(19:24):
and he's locked in and it is beautiful, but it
is a crazy experience relying on him, especially in that
game where we needed him to have that game. Right.
As good as the Browns defense was, they didn't win
that game, right. It was the offense that was able
to show up. And it was the first time all
season they scored more than twenty points. So yeah, it's

(19:45):
you know, we not that we all knew this was
this was going to happen, but we all knew that
that number didn't reflect this team. It really reflected the
Sean Watson, how bad he was for the Browns, and
the books they over adjusted to that, like they didn't
realize maybe they did, who knows, the public didn't though, Right,
that was one of the more bet teams this week
where the Ravens everyone bet them, and we knew there

(20:07):
was gonna be some big upset today we got too, right.
The Patriots Jets was a huge upset and this game
was also a huge upset.

Speaker 1 (20:16):
Yeah, I think we bet the Browns. That was when
we were sort of leaning towards all week.

Speaker 2 (20:23):
Yeah, it was just tough because the line moved so much, right,
I mean I bet at ten and a half bet
at again and nine and a half, but again the
eight and a half. Now we're playing in contest of
seven and a half. And I was, just, like you
just said, we saw how the math could work out
that this was gonna land on seven or eight, and
it didn't. They just they rolled them. Like you said,
that touchdown at the end by Jamis was so incredibly clutch.

Speaker 1 (20:44):
Yeah, No, that was amazing the way we played the
end of that game. It'll be really interesting to see
what we want to do with the Browns next week. Yeah,
you know, like we're gonna look at that number. In
a second, let's very quickly, very quickly talk about this
Bears game. Wow, Like their defense until the last play

(21:06):
of the game, they were brilliant. Yeah, kept this team
in the game the whole freaking time. And the fact that, like, look,
the Bears offensive play calling was dreadful. If not for
DeAndre Swift and if not for Kleb Williams's ability to
rush and make three or four plays, they're not even

(21:29):
close to being in that game. And we don't lose
a game in a heartbreaking fashion. The way that we
just did that was I can't believe we're still in
the air. Honestly, I know I.

Speaker 2 (21:41):
Feel bad making this show because I'd been there where
it's like the last thing you want to do right
now is recap there, So I guess I'll be the
one to do it. But my view of this game
was we knew, or I should say I knew this
was gonna be a low spring game. I knew it
was me tight. But I did think the Bears had
a big advantage offensively compare to this Washington defense. And

(22:02):
I didn't give enough credit to Washington defense. They're not
I keep thinking they're much worse than they really are.
They're not that bad, right, They're a well coached team.
They really knew how to attack Caleb Williams early on
in that game. And you know, we talked of the
time about these offenses being in a rhythm. The Bears
look like a team that of bye week and just
could not get their rhythm. It took them what three quarters.

Speaker 1 (22:23):
Also, they were playing like their left tackle went out
and as soon as he went out, Yeah, Kavid Williams
was basically running for his life the entire game.

Speaker 2 (22:31):
He was, but he literally had thirty yards passing midway
through the third quarter. So It's like I do want
to give him excuse for the same time, he also
played bad, and we kept saying that we were in
it because of what I thought, which was a ton
of regression was coming for that Washington offense. We knew
the Bears defense was by the best defense they played
all season, And you know, did I think it was

(22:52):
gonna be in the form of them kicking whatever that
was four field goals? No, but I knew that there
was gonna be a lot of regression just offensively. That
should Jayden Daniels playing, he did play, we could have
take We could have taken them out when we knew
he was going to play, and I didn't want to
do it because it was just like, I still think
this is a good spot for this Bears team. It
was a good read and what are you gonna do

(23:13):
a Hello, Mary pass. I've won a bunch of bets
off them, I've lost bets off him. That's just part
of the game for you. It's the double kick in
the gut because it's your favorite team, and that's uh,
you know it is. Chad knows if he doesn't make
the playoffs by one game, there's no other game. Now
the rest of the year. You circle this is the game.
It doesn't matter what happens in any of these other games.

(23:34):
It's like everyone was in front of the ball, they
batted it up in the air, and it bounced to
the guy in the back of the end zone for
a touchdown at the end of the game. And it's
a brutal loalsk, you just said the Bears defense played great.
They played great. They didn't give up a single touchdown
until there was zeros on the clock. Like that's just
a brutal way to lose a game that you dominated
the entire game. But it's the game that it hurts.

(23:58):
We lost money on it, but I'm not going to
react to it. I still keep the same grade I
have on the Bears, which is a higher grade than
this Washington team. And this Washington team is like in
the prime position now that even if they don't win
this division, feels like they're gonna be a wildcard team.
Like they're just really fun, exciting team. And even when
Daniels is banged up, he still was making big play,

(24:20):
especially running the ball. He's like he's just a fearless
kid right now. So yeah, both sides, the Bears I'm
not concerned, and I'll Washington not concerned. And the Bears,
this is a turning point for them. Their season from
this point forward just gets insanely tough. So we'll see
what kind of you know, leadership Kayleb william has and
the rest of the team does if this could tank
their season or they can just move on and be

(24:41):
a veteran team and get past this. But this is
a loss that the wrong team, This could haunt you
for the rest of the season.

Speaker 1 (24:50):
It was so terrible. I don't think we've ever had
the experience where we're watching one of our favorite teams
in real time while also seeing them lose on a
last second play, while also having them in the contest.

Speaker 2 (25:08):
No, definitely not that combination. No, it's the worst one ever,
I would say. And like again, I've lost, you know,
six figures and had to come on this fucking show
and talk nonsense. I feel like you're feeling what I
feel when I have to do that, where it's just
you're not gonna remember anything on their show, what we
talked about or anything. This is just just throw this
whole night away.

Speaker 1 (25:31):
Yeah, And as you can tell, I'm hacking up along
and have been getting worse as the day has gone on.
But this two shell pass, we're going to rally. By Tuesday,
we're gonna come back. We're gonna go over all of
our games. We're gonna end this week with a winning
week no matter what happens, because we're now three and

(25:51):
one on the day, we still have Dallas plus five
and a half. We left Detroit on the table. We
never got to Arizona. I feel like we let ourselves
get bullied into not taking people good because everyone loved Miami.

Speaker 2 (26:07):
I'm glad to take Miami though. Thank god, I just
held my position because, like you said, I already bet Arizona.
It was just like, all right, I just won't bet
this anymore. It's if everyone loves Miami here and they're
looking smart, that's another game. People are looking pretty damn
smart for three quarters, yep. But we just keep seeing
there's some of these teams just can't play four quarters.

(26:27):
And that's that's Miami this year, right. You said it before.
They didn't deserve that respect. They were getting way too
much respect. So you nailed that one. It's just a
Miami team that's not last year's Miami team. Where if
they were at home, they would have rolled that Arizona team.
They would have put up thirty five forty points on
that Arizona team. And today we saw the difference. They're

(26:47):
just inconsistent offensively and defensively. They have no personality.

Speaker 1 (26:53):
All right, let's start looking at the week nine. Lines
two or three stood out to me immediately.

Speaker 2 (27:02):
One of them, number one should be the easiest one
for you. Thursday night. Did you see Thursday Night's line? No,
hold on, take a gander Thursday night. Some of the
fishiest lines I've ever seen. I'm gonna walk into it.

Speaker 1 (27:18):
Texans Jets, Yeah, I can barely see. I feel like
I've just.

Speaker 2 (27:25):
Houston's minus one right now against the Jets on the
road in New York. So Vegas is saying that Houston
they're not home or on the road. Houston's on the
road at New York.

Speaker 1 (27:38):
You know what they're saying is Houston at home would
basically be like almost a touchdown favorite.

Speaker 2 (27:45):
I can't believe this line though, Like this is old.
Simon would have just hot right on this Jets team.
Trust the books here, but I'll take the chalk earlier
on Houston. I mean that Jets teams in total disarray.

Speaker 1 (27:57):
They're terrible.

Speaker 2 (27:58):
Yeah, who are they to be under three points to
a playoff contending team in Houston. I don't care if
it's a short week and they just had a tough
divisional game. This is this is a bizarre number by
the sports books to hang and like their early money
is coming in on the Jets, like the professionals are
coming on the Jets. I don't get it. So I'll
take Houston minus one off.

Speaker 1 (28:18):
The bat, all right, the game I was looking at, Yes, sir,
we just talked about Miami. We talked about Buffalo. Buffalo
is less than a touchdown favorite at home against Miami,
grab it, yeah, ta on the road against the good team.
We just saw he could barely finish the game, like
not health wise, but they could not close out the

(28:39):
game against the Cardinals at home. To on the road
against good teams in this spot, that's a smash spot
for the Bills.

Speaker 2 (28:49):
And we broke down the Bills perfectly. We said this
game would pretty much tell us exactly what the Bills
are and what the Seahawks are. The Bills only beat
up on bad teams this year. Guess who was a
bad team? The Seahawks. Guess who's also a bad team
in Miami. So the Bills are a really good team
right now. They're that second tier in the AFC of
like a team that could they go on a Super

(29:10):
Bowl run if things break their way. Yeah, they have
arguably one of the best players in all football now
and Josh Allen, like, they have the team there where
it's it's all there. But at the same time, we
know their weaknesses, right They're just they don't have a
guy like offensively it is all on Josh Allen, so
that makes me nervous about them on third downs and
defensively there are ways to attack this team. So right now,

(29:32):
this Bills team, I think we kind of got doubted
where It's like, if they're playing a bad team like
this and we're getting under a touchdown, why not take
this number. It's only going to go up, right, I
just can't see the professionals coming out of Miami here.

Speaker 1 (29:42):
It's going to go up. Raiders Bengals. Bengals were a
touchdown and a half favorite, which felt odd to me. Again,
apologize that felt very strange to me. The Bengal now
having been blown out at home, the Raiders are scrappy,

(30:03):
they keep covering. I know it's a game we don't
like to bet, it's a team you don't like to bet.
The Bengals just aren't very good right now, and the
Raiders keep themselves in almost every.

Speaker 2 (30:11):
Game, and the Raiders are up to eight and a half.
So interesting. Yeah, it's it's a key number. I'll take
the Raiders. We were right like this being one of
our five unlikely because I really like the Raiders today
and I felt like I got away with one here.

Speaker 1 (30:27):
Yeah I did.

Speaker 2 (30:28):
Yeah, But again, that's trusting the number. It's it's all about,
like we talk all the time, it's we've seen it
enough where we've seen it laying on seven and ten
enough where it's like that's the only reason that we
didn't I didn't really want to give it out was
because okay, we already been at ten ten and a
half now it's down to what's seven and a half
by kickoff? Its just that was a number that I

(30:50):
was never going to have us put in a contest. But
I mean, we talked about this Bengals team. Though they
are something's wrong with them. Something is definitely missing. And
it's not just the defense, Like I Remember we were
blaming the defense because they were so bad with this
Bengals team, But it's offensive too, right, Like, just.

Speaker 1 (31:09):
Well, without T Higgins there, they're just a different team.

Speaker 2 (31:12):
We sag with that. I agree.

Speaker 1 (31:14):
When he played, they had more weapons, they had opportunities
outside of Jamar Chase, and they could convert. Without T Higgins,
they can't convert.

Speaker 2 (31:26):
It's true. But like a lot of their not I'm
not here just shit the Cincinnati Bengals, But like their
wins have been fluky, like that Giants game, they scored
that rushing touchdof Joe Brow. They didn't get another touchdown
until there was like five minutes left in that game
against that terrible Giants team. The Browns, if they didn't
have that kick return, they probably were going to lose
that game or at least only win by a field goal,

(31:47):
right Like they they just to me they had a
lot of things to go right for them against bad
teams that kind of helped them have a better record
than they should have. Did I think they're gonna have
blown out a role today. No, but you're right. Once
T Higgins was out, a little bit of death sentence
for them. That's such a huge weapon to their offense.
Like you said, So I'll take the Raiders because it's
just the Bengals out there there deserve this respect and

(32:09):
they haven't get to win a home game this season,
so they've they've been absolutely terrible. So I'm with you
on that. So that's a way too big of a number.
I get we get it, though the Raiders are horrible, Minshew.
It is insane betting on this guy like that, Fumbly.
I don't know if you're watching that game. It's just
the whole Minshew experience. It's a it's a roller coaster.

Speaker 1 (32:28):
Who are you looking at?

Speaker 2 (32:31):
Like, just games that jump out to me that I
know you're not gonna win a bet right now because
it's just so gross. But the Giants are plus three
and a half against the Commanders. I get it, they're dead,
but they Daniel Jones only plays good against one team
in his career, it's the Commanders. So it's like, unfortunately,
I do have to bet this. No one needs a
rush to the book. I'm betting there right now just

(32:51):
in case the professionals do come in, maybe the public
will come in. This will keep going up because it
was I mean, they're all cash and check. They all
won big today, all want Washington. That was a really
public side. So we'll see if they roll that money
over when we get a plus four. But I'll take
that early number right now. Maybe I'm just too close
to it. I love this Rams team so much. That

(33:13):
was my biggest bet this week. I was all in
on them. They got it, came through. They're plus one
and a half right now at Seattle Seahawks. How do
we not drink on that?

Speaker 1 (33:23):
Yeah, that was weird to me. I thought they played great.
Nothing about it was fluky. They I'm talking about the Rams.

Speaker 2 (33:33):
Yeah, that was I mean, that was Stafford's best game
of the year.

Speaker 1 (33:35):
That was Stafford's best game. He had his weapons. Kyrine
Williams continues to be amazing. That defense is getting better
and better. They play with a lot of energy, like
they really rushed the passer. We saw Seattle this week.
They were terrible against a good Bills team in bad weather,
but they did not adjust. It feels like that's probably

(33:55):
the right side to me. I'm not disagreeing.

Speaker 2 (34:00):
Cool and then this is an amazing trend that I mean,
everyone's seen it online. Evans talked about it too, so basically,
teams that face the Lions Chad have yet to cover
a game this season, and it makes sense, right This
Detroit Lions team is incredibly physical. They wear these teams out.
This this week was the Titans. Titans are minus three

(34:21):
at home against this Patriots team. After that Patriots team
had a huge win. If it's Drake may or Bersett,
I feel comfortable taking that plus three. Aren't they playing
much better than this Titans team? The Patriots? You agree,
you're terrible. Titans are terrible across the board. I mean
they I cannot believe it when they I'm not gonna
lie to you. When they got that early lead, I
was like, you know what, maybe this they're gonna stay

(34:43):
in this game with this Lions team. And then their
special teams took the field, and you go, you know what,
They're not just bad offensively defensive, they might have the
worst special teams in football as well. So across the board,
they're terrible. Who are they to be catching minus three
against anybody? So I like that early grab of Patriots
plus three.

Speaker 1 (35:00):
I was watching the Titans, and then I watched a
little bit of the Broncos and the Panthers, and I
thought to myself, if you're Brian Callahan, if you're Dave Canalis,
it's Wednesday night, you're watching film for the ninety sixth
straight hour. How can you possibly find anything that you
think gives your team an advantage against anybody else? They

(35:23):
are completely overmatched in every area of the field. It's amazing.

Speaker 2 (35:30):
Yeah, I just can't imagine being the GM of that
team where it's you got rid of Rabel, you got
rid of aj Brown, you got rid of Derrick Henry,
like you're going through this whole new rebuild these last
three four.

Speaker 1 (35:42):
They got rid of it. They got rid of the GM.

Speaker 2 (35:44):
Yeah, that's what I mean though, Like everything just these
last three four years, it's crazy. I think they went
from being that one seat to where they're at now,
where they're just they're at the bottom. Like they tried
to spend money this offseason on their defense. Everywhere they
spent money, none of that fixed any of their issues.

Speaker 1 (36:02):
All right, who else you got? Because I got one
more game to discuss?

Speaker 2 (36:06):
All right, This isn't a bet for me. It's just
an interesting line. Obviously. You know, you talked about that
Jaguars team being horrible. Eagles are minus seven against the
Jaguars at home. It feels a bit rich to me.
I feel like that number is gonna come down, so
I'll take the plus seven, but I don't feel great
about it. I don't know how much I want to investigating

(36:27):
this Jaguars team another week. Like Chad said, I felt
like I got not that I got away with one today,
but it does feel that way where I needed Trevor
Lawrence a drive to field get me a touchdown, and
thank god he did.

Speaker 1 (36:39):
What do we think of the Green Bay Packers as
home underdogs against the Detroit Lions. The line's been going up.
It was at three and a half, now it's four.
Give me your lean there.

Speaker 2 (36:55):
We talked last week. I was all in on this
was going to be an auto play in the Packers
like this right. That's the issue right now is there's
no Jordan of Love. So I'm in no rush. You
can grab Detroit now if you want that side. But
I was always going to no matter what beyond Green
Bay in this spot. This is just I've been doing

(37:15):
this long enough to know that teams like Detroit, who
have been incredibly hot, it's always different when you play
your own division, doesn't matter if you can beat up
in everyone you want, even if you're beating up on
the best teams on football, when you come back and
play the crap or your own division, you struggle. Unfortunately
for them, Green Bay is no crap. This is a
really good team, a really well coached team that even

(37:35):
if Jordan Love is out, all right, I mean I'll adjust,
maybe won't, won't be one of my most confident bents,
but I'm still gonna like them and the number I
just think as a whole team and the coaching is too.
Green Bay is just gonna be undervalue here to Districtrade team.
That's just we talked about this is this is peak.
This is a peak as you can get the season
on any team, this Detroite team in this in this matchup.

(37:58):
So again, I we love Detroit here. We've been riding
Detroit now for four or five weeks. They've been so
good to us. That's like, that's like the part of
me that's eating at it where it's like you can't
just betray him here. We have to. This is such
a spot to fade them, so I'll be able to
break down this game more and figure out what's going on.
Once I know what the what the news is the
Jordan love. But as we said here right now, what

(38:21):
do you think the story could get up? Do you
think you get up to six? If it is, you know, about.

Speaker 1 (38:26):
Six or seven, because I think everybody's going to come
in on the Lions and nobody's going to run.

Speaker 2 (38:32):
To back Lions outdoors too.

Speaker 1 (38:35):
Yeah, that's interesting, right, Yeah, So this is a weight
and this.

Speaker 2 (38:41):
Is probably gonna be our big balls. I can already
this is a.

Speaker 1 (38:43):
Weight and on Thursday we're betting the Packers. I mean,
that's kind of what's going to happen at this point.
I'm trying to check the MVP ads right now. Jared
Goff is still plus seven hundred. Nothing's been updated.

Speaker 2 (38:57):
Well, it's gonna update because Lamar is gonna drop obviously.

Speaker 1 (39:00):
Right now, Lamar's number one. Josh Allen two mahomes three golf,
four golf, had fewer than one hundred yards, but he
had three touchdowns. The Lions basically won that game on
special teams like you said, and running the ball. Jamiir
Gibbs and David Montgomery were both amazing. So all right,
the games that we pegged, like we feel strongest about
Buffalo minus six, and I think the Rams plus one

(39:25):
and a half. You took a little taste of the Giants,
we'll take a little taste of the Raiders at eight
and a half. We don't mind the Pats as underdogs
against the Titans. Everything else is a wait and see.
It feels fair?

Speaker 2 (39:39):
Yeah, fair, Okay, your approach. You're a constant appropriate doing
the show. If you said I can't do this tonight,
I told you understeuaded.

Speaker 1 (39:49):
I am in agony right now. As a reminder, the
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(40:11):
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(40:32):
restrictions apply. Catch our next episode live Tuesday one thirty
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whole NFL Week nine board and announce our Week eight
contest winner until next time. Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods,
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(40:53):
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