The Favorites - NFL Week 9 Betting Preview

Are the Detroit Lions unstoppable? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss this and every other game on the board from a betting perspective.  Can Tampa beat Kansas City? Are the Dolphins in danger versus Buffalo? And how impactful will Jordan Love's injury status be this week? 

We also get a recap of Week 8 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Schad Milne of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday, Week nine episode where we break down the
entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exact
decision our Simon says, and we will start to narrow

(00:30):
down the options for our fave fives to put into
The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
Them contest. We went three and two this week. We
had a strong three to zero start to the day.
In the early games, we had a heartbreaking mush mess

(00:51):
of a loss with the Bears that a lot of listeners,
a lot of viewers got to experience live on Sunday
night as the bet and the Bears melted down before
my eyes. If you want to see someone almost stroking

(01:12):
out in real time on air, feel free to find
that clip which has been played numerous times of me
watching this game live while we lost the bet after
I mistakenly said we're four and oher when the Bears
had twenty three seconds left to screw it up. But
also had a Cowboys loss that I did not witness
because I drunk myself with all sorts of cough medicine

(01:34):
and went to bed. Here we are live from our
Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always, buy my COEs,
my companion, Mike and Padre my professional better sigmon Hu,
Hello s I'm in Hello chat.

Speaker 2 (01:46):
It is a new week. You sound better, you look better.
Hopefully you're feeling a little better than you were someday.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
No joke, Brother, I until fifteen minutes ago, was hacking
up along. Got even know why I'm not right now.
I'm not going to look into it. I'm not gonna
try to understand it. I'm just going to appreciate the
fact that I'm able to be on the air right
now without losing it for this second straight show. You know,

(02:16):
maybe underdogs of at least seven this year, Simon are
nine and eleven straight up most upset wins since two
thousand and eight this past week. That included the Browns
and the Pats. We've got four of those games this week,
all of which we will review. We did have a

(02:38):
bit of a return to normalcy this week. Road favorites
were well below five hundred after a three week stretch
of dominance. Road teams overall performed poorly, but the public
did win again This week. They went nine and six
against this bread Miami Arizona was a complete fifty to

(03:01):
fifty split. Crazy right. I will tell you, the conversation
about the Bears in my small, tiny corner of the
world has gone from what we wisnessed Sunday night to

(03:23):
text chain's galore. Last night, it was my younger son's
eighteenth birthday. We went to dinner, me, him and my wife,
our older son, you know, is in Phillya College, and
half of the conversation was about the Bears, the Hail Mary.
The other half, for some reason, was about whether or

(03:45):
not Anthony Rizzo deserved a statue at Wrigley Field because
he's so popular and the Bears and the Cubs won
a World Series with him. I'm like, dude, two sixty
hitters aren't getting statues because they win a World Series.
But it's you know, it's the exuberance of youth the Bears,
dudet you collect all of the coaching mishaps in that game,

(04:10):
the poor discipline handing the ball to a backup offensive lineman,
the way they manage that Hail Mary. Letting them get
that thirteen yards to get even closer, like unwrapping it,
It just makes it even worse, simon it really you.

Speaker 2 (04:25):
Got to sing the song, Chad, let it go, Let
it go. You gotta move on. You guys are a
one point favorite this week. They got to move on.
It's a new week.

Speaker 1 (04:33):
Are we or are we not? That is the question.
In a moment, we'll recap with results the results of
week eight and our contest announce the winner of our
big weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet, be sure
to sign up for the Free Favorites podcast one hundred
thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by Bett three
sixty five. Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. We

(04:54):
are still giving away weekly cash prizes as a reminder,
The Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six five
and now new Bet three six five. Customers get two
hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars
sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars a
place of bet for five dollars to get two hundred

(05:14):
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
it's never ordinary. At bet three six five. Must be
twenty one or older. In president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older.
In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or

(05:35):
one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms condition and
restrictions apply. Congratulations to week eight first place winner Jay
Houston GT. Jay Houston went five to zero and missed
Monday night football tiebreaker by four, so he takes home
our weekly one thousand dollars cash prize. Well done. As always,

(05:55):
Matt Mitchell, our producer, has selected his Producer's Cup award
to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.
Have you about the loads and loser? He's a louise
about he still kids on try. This week's producer Cup

(06:17):
goes to why not Us, who went on to five
and missed the tiebreaker by two hundred and nineteen yards.

Speaker 2 (06:23):
Why not Us?

Speaker 1 (06:24):
Please email our producer at podcasts at Actionnetwork dot Com
to claim your prize. Time go to go to week nine, Simon.
Despite the way I sound, I feel really really good.
First game up Thursday night. You were all over the
Rams last week. You loved the Rams. You loved it
so much you had to talk about it on Thursday.
It was one of your biggest bets of the week.

(06:44):
Houston is visiting the New York Jets. The Jets are
now two point favorites.

Speaker 2 (06:50):
Crazy.

Speaker 1 (06:51):
They were one point favorites on Sunday night. Your line
was this is fishy and that you were going to
take the Texans. What in God's name is moving this
number right now? You look at the data, all the tickets,
all the money on the Texans. Is this like a
small group just taking a stand that the Texans have

(07:16):
been underperforming and getting lucky and the Jets are good
but have just been bad so they have to get better.
Why is this line going up?

Speaker 2 (07:25):
Yeah? I think it's a lot of stuff too. Where
they we're professionals. They like home teams on Thursday from
the get go right because there's no travel in a
short week, especially where you know, say which one about
the Colts. That Houston game was pretty hard hitting and
now it's a short week, we have to travel. We
saw it the week before right with the Vikings playing Detroit.
It's tough, and you play those grueling divisional games that

(07:46):
are close to the end, and then you have to
travel in three days to go play a football game.
It is pretty crazy. So I'm not gonna be it.
To me, it's just the books are trying to scare
us off chat. That's what it feels like to me.
They're trying to show that there's professional movement here, that
professional money's coming in pretty heavy on this Jets team.

(08:06):
You could say that every week for the last three weeks,
professional money is coming on this Jets team. I mean
they've just been betting them and me and you joked
about it five weeks ago and it holds true today.
What would the Jets be if they just got a
different kicker like they'd They've made all these crazy moves
the end of the day, doesn't it really just come
down to this kicker? I mean, it is football. It's

(08:26):
such a simple game, and these teams trying to make
it so complicated they need to do all these different
things where it's like you're losing these games to the
special teams so great, keep moving the number. I'll be
the public sucker here with everyone else. I mean, Thursdays
have been really good to me this year. I think
I'm six and two this year on Thursdays. And you know,
usually if this was a Sunday game, I could be

(08:48):
talking to the Jets because this is such a pros
Verse shows game. But on Thursday, men you talked about
we throw that out the window. It's the public wins
on Thursdays. It's the truth. So like last week, people
are like, oh, you just fading the vikings because it's
the public, and it was like, no, you're getting a
really good number on a team that's getting healthy. This
is not that same spot. And I know Houston's had

(09:09):
injuries here, but at what point does a number catch
up to that? So we talked Houston's a different team
with Joe Mixon in the backfield, and this is a
Joe mixing game. Now, he got a little banged up
the into the game last week, so I have to
look more into that. But as we sit here right now,
I have made a bet on this one. I'm gonna
bet Houston, though I'm hoping against a two and a

(09:30):
half because people know how. I just think that's such
a key number. And yeah, this is a bizarre game.
I'm actually excited for this game because this number is
so bizarre. The movement of this line is so bizarre.
But we just talked about like there's there's a professional
there's multiple professional groups who just have been betting this
Jets team and they're getting caught. And I was one
of them. Last week. I had the Jets and a
bunch of different teasers. I thought there was no way

(09:52):
they dropped that game to the Patriots. And it took
a miracle, but they dropped that game. So yeah, I'm
I'm I'm in on Houston here, but I'll just wait
to get a better number.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
Yeah, it's interesting with these Thursday night games that what
you would classify as the better team has been winning
the games because when you have less prep, the players
who are better are the ones that you technically want
to back. And last week.

Speaker 2 (10:23):
We talk about coaching mismatch here, right, I.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
Mean, and that's also a big part of it.

Speaker 2 (10:28):
Right, Yeah, last.

Speaker 1 (10:29):
Week was an anomalye with the Vikings and the Rams.
You would think that the Rams were the team that
was not necessarily the better team. But they got Pukaakua
and Cooper cut Back and that championship calculus on that
team immediately. And then you've got the better quarterback in
Matthew Stafford and a really good coach in McVeigh. There's

(10:50):
no one who believes in the Jets coaching staff. Even
the Jets don't believe in the Jets coaching staff. So
it's a fascinating game. And like you know, there are
certain teams and wise guys get stubborn, professionals get stubborn.
I know what the model says, I know what the
number says. It can't keep going as bad as it is,
and yet it's going as bad as it as it is,

(11:12):
So I don't mind it. I'm with you. I haven't
bet it yet. I'm probably gonna wait until the game time,
like I did with the Rams last week.

Speaker 2 (11:17):
But you're the same thing as me, though, we're just
it's such a fishy line. We don't want touch it
because we don't understand what's happening.

Speaker 1 (11:23):
So I haven't I haven't heard enough. Yeah, Denver at Baltimore.
Baltimore is now a nine point favorite. Crazy This opened
at eight and a half on Sunday, went to nine,
back down Tate and a half back to nine. It
was pretty evenly split between tickets and money in the
early going. Now slightly more tickets on the Ravens a bit,

(11:47):
I'm sorry, slightly more tickets on and money on the
Broncos then on the Ravens. Look, the Broncos rushing offense
is terrible. They will not be able to run on
the Ravens, which have the top ranked rushing d I
think that's actually an advantage for the Broncos' you're laughing

(12:08):
at me, but let me explain. They like to let
it loose. Sean Payton has not treated bo Nicks like
a rookie at all. He's basically said to him, figure
it the fuck out, dude, like you're throwing deep. We're
doing trick plays. I'm not limiting the playbook. And that Ravens'
secondary is just out of sorts. You know. Ross Talker,

(12:33):
our good friend Ross Talker talked about this in the
broadcast last week. They have so many drives and so
many plays where they look confused and they don't know
what they're doing as the ball is snapped. And he's
like it shows up on film every single week and
the fact they are giving up the most points in

(12:53):
the NFL in the second half. Nine is just a
big number for a Broncos team that has proven this
year they're going to keep playing, keep going, take every
rep as a as a possibility for the future of
Bonnick's being better. Even in this Panthers game, they kept
throwing the ball so kind of lean Broncos here.

Speaker 2 (13:14):
Yeah, and I think Humphreys is supposed to be out,
and so's Nate Wiggins, which, you know, as much as
we want to bash this Ravens secondary, those two guys
have been really good this year. They've just faced really
tough competition. And we saw last week with Jamis you know,
he almost almost got to the end there that Kyle
Hamilton should have should have picked it. But overall in

(13:35):
that whole game, he was great and there was open
receivers streaking down the field. And you know, not only
did the injuries catch up to the Ravens there, we talked,
I just don't trust their coaches to make adjustments. And
what happened that second half they got blown out Like
the first half they played so well, and then the
adjustments were made by Cleveland. There was no counter by

(13:55):
the Ravens, And that's been my whole take. I mean,
you keep talking every week about the Ravens have given
up the most second half points in the league, right,
I feel like we've talked about that where oh yeah, totally,
they've struggled.

Speaker 1 (14:05):
I I just said it, how do we not.

Speaker 2 (14:12):
Take the Broncos here? So this is another game where
I need to look more into it because I don't
get this line. I make this line seven. It's always
past the key number of seven and a half, eight and
a half up to nine. Now it's I'll take it
like I'm gonna take this number. And just because I
get the Ravens are gonna bounce back here, I understand
they'll be able to move the ball, and you know
we're betting on bone knicks on the road in this position.

(14:34):
But Jadd just said it like this kid isn't treated
like a rookie, and I'm trying not to treat him
as one. We've seen him. I mean, they had that
run there, they went to Tampa, they won on the road,
and I think they went up to New York. I
know it was a fluky because the Jets again miss
field goals, but they kept that game close and won
that game, like this is a team that's not has
not been scared, especially with bon Knicks go on the
road and win these games. And as dominant the Ravens

(14:57):
have been offensively, you know Denver's defense, no just walk over,
their defense actually played me. Yes, I agree, and I
just think this is way too much, way too much
number not to take a plus nine. I wanted to
avoid this game just because we are so due for
a Ravens just to roll a team by thirty points
and Denver to play bad right, I mean, they're literally

(15:20):
half a game away from hitting their win total. We're
not even at the midway point. Like this is a
team that has overachieved so much, and we have a
team in the Ravens that are a veteran team coming
off a brutal divisional loss. This is usually where they
kill a team like this, especially with the rookie quarterback.
So yes, just being weary, not guaranteed to be one
of our five. But man am I I mean I'm

(15:40):
betting this right now, like literally bet it before it
came on the air. A couple books are back up
to nine. I'm gonna bet it again just because it's
crossed that key number again. So very interesting to see
what the pros have to say about this one, because
right now I love it. But there must be something
I'm missing here just because this number is so high.

Speaker 1 (15:55):
Well, look, you nailed it on the adjustments and that
is something that Sean Paate and excels at. Right Yeah,
he's one of the best coaches in the NFL in
twenty years at making adjustments at halftime to improve his
team's chances to win in the second half. And if
we're talking about the Broncos defense, is it is a

(16:17):
legit top five defense, right They're front four. They have
the best passing defense in the league in passing efficiency,
they're third in pressure rate. No one really stops Lamar.
I don't mind backing Denver on the promise of a
big second half from bow Knicks. Jamis like tore that

(16:40):
defense apart in the second half when he threw his
touchdown pass to win the game. It was the twenty
first completion of twenty five or more yards given up
by Baltimore, which leads the NFL. So I do not
worry about backing Denver here right now? Yeah, right now,

(17:02):
Las Vegas Cincinnati, this is a game that we talked
about on Sunday night a little bit. Yeah, it opened
at seven and a half, got up to eight and
a half while we were recording. Actually it got up
to eight and a half and then dropped back down
almost to the minute when we were discussing that the
Raiders were our early lean. I read this week that
Desmond Ritter may get some snaps, some snaps because Gardner Minshew,

(17:25):
who we love, cannot hold on to the ball. Another
costly turnover against the Chiefs which almost cost us our cover.
They have the most turnovers in the league, the most
fumbles in the league, the second most I in T's
they could win the turnover triple Crown simon. So this

(17:45):
makes it a very hard to bet on them in
a non spot situation. Right, we did last week against
the Chiefs, and the Bengals are free falling, But like,
what's the status with t Higgins? To me, that's the
difference between maybe this is a play and maybe this
isn't to play at all.

Speaker 2 (18:07):
Yeah, But honestly, though, if that doesn't ridder news is true,
I wouldn't touch this game. I'll probably end up having
a little just thrown on the money. Line of Vegas here,
just because this Bengals team. I mean, let's be honest,
like even talking about last week, you know, who are
they to be that big of a favorite at home
when they haven't won a home game yet this season.

(18:28):
And you can get the Raiders at plus three hundred
right now against this Bengals team that they could just
implode and fold in on themselves at any moment. But
I talked about last week. They seem like the type
of team that they can beat up on bad teams
and they struggle against good teams. We both agree Raiders
are a bad team, not just because of the injuries,
not just because of the coaching mishaps. But end of
the day, it's the quarterback, right Minshew's been bad this year.

(18:49):
I don't think it's me any better when they turn
to their backup. So this is a game I wanted
to bust a bet, especially when I was eight and
a half. Now there's other lines I've kind of fallen
in love with and I like more than this one,
So I have no issue passing on this one here.
It's just so tempting to take the money line of
the Raiders. But man, if it's Desmond Rader, Me, Me
and Chad already went through this last year. There's just
I can't invest a lot of money into this guy

(19:11):
at quarterback.

Speaker 1 (19:12):
I'm surprised that Broncos at plus nine was not your
Simon says. We've got assignment says, and an exec decision
still to come. New England at Tennessee. It's another one
that you pegged on ya as liking New England as

(19:34):
the three point dog. It got bet down to two
and a half, immediately went back up to three. Look,
the Patriots are trash. The Titans are trash, and the
Titans defense actually isn't terrible, right, Like they're second against
play action in the NFL. First against the deep ball, third,
win a quarterback is not facing any pressure. Third against

(19:57):
rushing inside the tackles. Like rushing inside the tackles that
might be the only thing the Patriots can do. Yeah,
I really really wanted to bet on the Titans coming
off a blowout. You know, it just feels like when
you want to back that kind of team, that scenario

(20:17):
is not in. The Titans favor home faves after a
loss of thirty plus points forty two percent against the spread.
Yep since two thousand and three, both tickets and even
more money on New England. Right now, New England is
feeling more and more like the side feels like you
kind of nailed it on Sunday night.

Speaker 2 (20:37):
Yeah, And honestly though I've I've talked to some professionals.
You do like the Tennessee side, and I'm with you.
I think they're just blindly bending because they just got
blown out in a game which it was all special teams, right,
It wasn't the offensives fault, it wasn't the defensive fault.
It really was their special team's fault. And I view
it as I'm just playing the number here. I get
all that other noise, but you can get three and
a half right now in New England as well, Like

(20:58):
there's a couple of books out there and a half.
How do I not take that's that's just too too
much for this Tennessee team that I mean, we can
go back through a chad We've had so many weeks.
We avoided this because we didn't like the nine line
with Tennessee, where you know, I think they are like
two and a half point favorites or they are three
point favorites, and it's like it didn't really make sense
and we just stayed away from it and they end

(21:19):
up getting like blown out or they lose those games.
So I had the same view here. It's like the books.
The professionals for some reason all year have liked this
Tennessee team, have respected this Tennessee team, and I'm just
not there. So another game, this is three and a
half in our contest the dogs this week. This is
one of the dogs. I like, I would not be
shocked at me and you put this in our contest.

(21:39):
It's just too many points for a Tennessee team that
if they won by three, I think that'd be a
great game from Tennessee. And on the flip side of
the Patriots team, as bad as they've been this year,
they've been much better than Tennessee. Like they rarely do
get blown out. They usually do hang into games. Like
the only game I can early think of was that
Houston game where they really did a dominator from the

(22:00):
first snapped to the end of the game. We talked
about Houston's a really good team, Like even on the
weeks they don't have it all put together. We know
once that offense gets rolled that they're pretty unstoppable. Sam
can go for you know, a bunch of teams that
Tennessee's played this year, but overall, to me, Tennessee has
just struggled, especially against bad teams this year. And you know,
it's just it's to me another coaching game where either

(22:24):
side of the ball, I don't trust the coaches on
either side. I don't know if you have the same
feeling here, but it's really just about the spread. And
you know, it would be great if it was Brussette,
but I wouldn't let Drake May being in there throwing
me totally off. There's things he can do that Brusett
can't do that I actually like about Brussette. So yeah,
that's This is a tricky number right now because we
don't have a lot of info and the injuries with

(22:45):
both sides, But three and a half I'll grab that
right now just in case it does go back down
to three to two and a half?

Speaker 1 (22:51):
Right, Is it gonna be? Will Levis? Is it gonna be? Yeah,
Drake May. I just keep thinking of an image of
Ryan Callahan just clapping into the void, like trying to
maintain some enthusiasm on Sunday against the Lions and it's

(23:14):
just I feel for these guys.

Speaker 3 (23:16):
I do.

Speaker 1 (23:17):
I do because like your dream in any profession, your
dream is for a lot of people get to the top,
be able to run something in your profession, you believe
you can do it better than the person who's doing it.
Where you're at, You've got ideas about how you want
to run it, how you're going to treat the people

(23:40):
on your team, how you're going to manage creatively. And
these jobs don't come up that often, and then you
got to take it. And you're taking the freaking Titans job. Yeah,
he's got Will Levice and a deconstructed roster and now
they're buyer sailing in the middle of the season, or
you're taking the Panther's job. We'll get to that game
into Saints, and it's just it's freaking devastating.

Speaker 2 (24:04):
Really, it's like the old saying, no, there's only thirty
two of these jobs in the world. But it's like, yeah,
but you don't need to take one of the thirty
two jobs in the world. You can be patient, you
don't have to take these jobs.

Speaker 1 (24:14):
Well, look at Ben Johnson right with the line, he's
nailing it. He's like assiduously avoided taking the first job
that comes along, even to his detriment, maybe in the
head coaching search along the way. But then again, you
keep firing up an offense, you keep getting your team
closer and closer to the Super Bowl. They're not gonna care.

(24:36):
You're gonna have your pick New Orleans at Carolina. Carolina
is a seven point home underdog.

Speaker 2 (24:45):
Listen, Saints or nothing.

Speaker 1 (24:47):
I mean, thank god you said that.

Speaker 2 (24:51):
Well, Honestly, me and Matt Mitchell joking last week, Chad,
I told him, I've just been putting the Panthers in
my contest just since that whatever I think it was,
the Bengals game was my last time I gave the
Carolina Panthers a chance, and they got rolled in that
Bengals game. And I've literally gone to the viewpoint of
this guy who just keeps just the record. I just

(25:11):
keep saying to myself, he's right. This is the worst
team in my lifetime I can remember. Honestly, I think
this team is worse than the zero to sixteen Lions
team from years ago. Like that team at least covered
with Dania Rolaski because they were undervalued in the market
and they would just lose. These funky, weird games under
the games right, it was just really about a bad
team with bad coaching that was unlucky. This is not

(25:34):
an unlucky team in the Panthers. This is simply a
bad team with bad coaching that I've had horrible injury luck.
That was the only thing I think they've had is
really bad injury luck. Like their best defenders have gotten
hurt ave injuries to the offensive line. I mean last
week they are basically down to their three and four receiver,
which is already a team that they're one and two's
aren't one and twos. So it's just all bad for

(25:56):
Carolina and Chad knows how hard this when we do
because I love home divisional dogs. I love them, but
this ain't one of them. Like, this is not the
time to take this Panthers team, especially with Derek Carr
coming back, so a game I might force it in.
There's other favorites I do like more than this. But
if this is six and a half in contest, how

(26:17):
do we not take it? Who are this Panthers team
to be catching this Logan number? Like again, I think
the books they've adjusted this year right where Okay, maybe
the Broncos. You know, four years ago should have been
plus ten against this Ravens team, this Panthers team. This
should be like a thirteen spread. They've not adjusted at
all this season to this team. Like every week I

(26:38):
keep thinking we're gonna see some huge, massive spread. Even
last week, I think they opened at ninth against the Broncos.
Then once all the injury news came out, you know,
Andy Dalton getting her and everything like that, it moved
up to eleven and a half, and for some reason,
my stupid fucking brain, I was like, oh, well, now
the value's gone. I liked that nine and a half.
Now I don't like it eleven and a half, as
if that matters with this team. I think they lost

(26:58):
by whatever it was, fourteen. They're just terrible in every way,
So I like it. I like New Orleans now Derek
Carr back, just because I think this is a spark
this team needs after such dreadful QB play, Like you
could just see this getting this team back around, and
this is the perfect game for them to get right.
I mean, they put up what fifty points the first
time they played against each other. Obviously this is not

(27:20):
the same team, right, They've had major injuries to the
Saints team, but at the same time, some of the
Panthers they've only gotten much worse since that Week one.
So yeah, it's rare for me to take a huge
favorite on the road, a divisional game like this, But
that's how bad this Panthers team is right now.

Speaker 1 (27:37):
Home division dogs this year by the way, six ten
and one last two seasons since the beginning of twenty
twenty three. Uh against the spreads. So not like, not
terrible to take a road division favorite. Andy Delton's status

(27:59):
still to be determined. Derek Carr, Like you said, we'll
be back enough set about this game, like we're not.
We're not gonna get crazy Dallas at Atlanta. This is
a tricky game, very very tricky game. Like I want
to be on the Cowboys here. It feels it feels

(28:21):
very trappy to bet the falcon Remember last week when
I was all over the Bengals at minus two, minus
two and a half and you kept trying to warn me,
and I'm like, now, come on, this is this is
the way to go here, Like it's not the exact same,
but the number is the same. The Cowboys they're not
a good team and Dak looks terrible. Actually, you know,

(28:45):
we called him mal Santa and convinced me this week
because Kerner had him at under seven and a half
rushing yards because he just doesn't leave the pocket, and
you could see it on plays negative one rushing yard,
but two and a half Like this Falcons stem there's

(29:05):
something that's like, there's something not quite right about them.
They're top three in the offense in the NFL. That's
mainly because Kirk Cousins has played the Bucks twice and
thrown for a million yards and seven hundred touchdowns. Right,
So it's either to me Cowboys or nothing. It feels
pretty well lined right now.

Speaker 2 (29:24):
Yeah, I'm on the other side. I do like a
landing here. It's just because I agree with you. The
Cowboys just they seem lost right now, not just because
of all the injuries, but it's the coaching too. I mean,
you're up whatever that was. I feel like it was
ten to six whatever the number score was on the
road against the forty nine ers, and then you give
up twenty one straight in the third quarter, like they
got completely blown out against that foreign I as seeing

(29:45):
that third quarter and it was just all it's all
about the adjustments like Foreign Iris made great adjustments. You
came out. I think Dak threw a pick on his
first possession in that second half, and it's just like
you said to me, I tried to fall back too
much because he is he is putting it all on
his shoulders and this, you know, Jerry Jones. I feel
like they're all failing Dak right now, a guy who

(30:07):
they just gave all that money to in a bunch
of different ways. But uh yeah, the Atlanta one is
interesting because last week again we didn't put it in.
I like Atlanta's side. The professionals love the Bucks, Like
that number got up to three and then went all
the way down to one right before kickoff, like big
money came in on that Bucks team. For what Chad

(30:27):
just talked about. People just do not trust this Falcons team.
A lot of the stuff they do this year is fluky.
They're inconsistent. Their defense as your defense, their defense.

Speaker 1 (30:36):
That's that is why it's not about their offense. Like
Kirk Cousins is playing great, Kyle Pitts is actually looking
like the guy that they spent the final overall pick on,
Like Bijon is running people over and duking people at
the same time, like Darryl Mooney looks amazing, right, but

(30:58):
their defense is like they not get to the quarterback.

Speaker 2 (31:02):
No, and that that's gonna be obviously a bonus is
this Dallas team. And I wanted to be on Dallas
because they're obviously gonna be more desperate team here. But
I'm sadly I've ended up on the Falcons here just
because of the number I make this number three. It's
two and a half, so I'm gonna end up taking
the Falcons. But this game, like I wouldn't bet it
a lot of money on it, just because it feels
like just seeing that I had the feeling with the

(31:22):
buck seam, whoever the ball last is gonna win this game, right,
It's gonna be a close, close game just because neither
defense is good, right they they neither defense can close
games out. So that that's the thing here where it's like,
all right, I have other games I like more to bet,
but Chad's right where his initial thought of the Cowboys,
I think most professionals are gonna come into the Cowboys.
So I'm not rushing to bet this a landa number

(31:43):
right now, but that that right now, is the side
I'm showing value on.

Speaker 1 (31:47):
Unfortunately, I don't want to say you fool the way
you know, hurt my feelings when I picked the Bengals
last week.

Speaker 2 (31:57):
I'm your friend. I'm trying to I was trying to
help you, of Chad.

Speaker 1 (32:02):
You know what the problem was last week I was
not feeling great, Like I.

Speaker 2 (32:07):
Know, I just can't believe you took a favor the
where you had these dogs you loved and there were
great picks and you didn't pick them.

Speaker 1 (32:11):
It was just I actually thought about this this morning,
Like last week, we loved the Browns, we loved the Raiders,
we loved you loved the Jags. I didn't love the.

Speaker 2 (32:22):
Colt sell which was again that was a sharp number.

Speaker 1 (32:24):
That was a shark the Colts. I think I had
the Colts that it was my exac decision. I felt
not to like double up on my exact decision and
my screw roulette and like normally I try to prepare
on Thursdays and like, okay, what's my Scoots Roulette pick
gonna be? And I'll make notes on it, And for
some reason I didn't do it on Thursday. And then
I saw Cincinnati and like had circled it and like

(32:48):
I just loved Joe Burrows so much, we all did
him so much. I got I got caught, I got got,
I got got. As they say, all right, I mentioned
at the top of the show that we are coming
you live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. Great games
start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest

(33:09):
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(33:29):
at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Save twenty five
percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All right,
Miami at Buffalo, Buffalo's a six and a half point favorite.
I loved it on Sunday night when it was at six.
I bet it at six. You can see that in
the Action Network app too. It is two and ten

(33:51):
straight up, three eight and one against the spread, away
from home versus winning teams. In his NFL career year
before this season begins, Evan Abrams director of research. Everyone
loves him. He gives like massive packets. If you read

(34:11):
his story on a weekly basis, you can see all
the day to the has So he gives all this
information on quarterbacks, coaches, teams, trends, and then I'll like
make my notes and I'll pull them aside and I'll
make my own little packets for individual things. So I
have been waiting for two way to go to the
Bills so we could talk about this game because he's

(34:32):
been especially bad against the Bills. Oh and seven straight
up one and six versus Josh Allen. I just have
no reason not to bet the Bills here.

Speaker 2 (34:44):
I will never forget we had a cover where basically
the Bills I'll gain the Miami by like three hundred
yards in Miami. I mean you still covered that Miami bet.
So I am shocked they didn't win that game as well.
But this is we had this one circle. I didn't
care if the professionals are coming on Miami and that
they were going to try to bully us again this week.

(35:04):
There is no way this isn't one of our five.
Like I love this favorite, I bet this favorite. I
will have this in a ton of teasers. I am
happy to lose money on this type of bet just
because Josh Allen has been so good to me in
these type of spots, in this exact kind of game
where it's his team first, a bad team. That's I
get it. They're desperate. This is for their season, Josh Allen,

(35:25):
coming off a huge road win, you expect them to
have a let down game. I don't think so. I
think they view this as a divisional game with a
team they do not like, and a game they know.
If they win this, they basically close out their division
for the most part midway through this season. I mean,
they're about to close out their division on whatever it
is November third, November seven, which has just got to
be the greatest feeling ever as a fan. So yeah,

(35:47):
I love this for the Bills. It's a statement game.
It's a great number right now, especially a couple of
books showing six still. I mean, I love that. Maybe
me and you will get lucky and we'll get a
five and a half come Thursday in our contest with
just be an absolute gift. So yeah, the matchup wise,
there are ways that Miami can attack this Bill's defense.
We've seen that the Bills defense does have some weaknesses,

(36:09):
but overall, offensively, I love this matchup for the Bills,
Like I just I can't see them punting more than
them twice in this entire game. Like there's just so
many ways for them to attack it and we've seen
it time and time again. Like even going back to
that game they played earlier in the year. Sure was
a little fluky, right because two had those really bad
turnovers and then got banged up, But they were again

(36:30):
donating a bunch of different ways in that game, like
they're forcing to in no uncomfortable positions because they've just
seen that offense so many times at this point, right.
I Mean that's the thing withou be in the same division,
and there is no defense for Josh Allen. Like when
Josh Allen's on, you can't beat him. And he did't
even had that grave of a game last week. It
was really about this new identity right with Joe Brady,
and they can run the ball down your throat, which

(36:50):
is what they could do here against this Miami team.
So yeah, you know they got Cook Ray Davis, whoever
it is the running back on this team right now,
it doesn't matter, right as long as you have Josh
Allen back there, and that counts for another defender in
the box. It has to watch Josh Allen. That's always
gonna be advantage to the running back. So yeah, clearly
people can tell I love this matchup with this Bill's team.

Speaker 1 (37:11):
I'm on this number, Simon, I'm making it my executive decision.

Speaker 3 (37:16):
There you go, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.

Speaker 2 (37:21):
Are your execute number executive decision.

Speaker 1 (37:26):
In two games this year, two has played you know,
two and a half games, one of those games against
the Bills when he got knocked out. He has struggled
to barely beat the Jags, not a very good team,
and lost to the Cards, a mediocre team. To me,
that makes the Dolphins a middling to not very good team. Yeah,

(37:46):
and the Bills dominate middling to not very good teams.
They are not a team that plays down to their opponent.
Even when they are losing in the first half, they
find a way to get on that street and they
go four five scores in the second half. A bigger
ish number just does not worry me. With Josh Allen.

Speaker 2 (38:10):
Now, we talk luck all the time. We will need
to get unlucky to not cover this number. Honestly, like,
we would need josh On to have two turnovers and
to have the game of his life for us not
to cover this number. Just that's how much I think
of the MISMATCHSS is for the Bills of Miami team.

Speaker 1 (38:24):
All right, exec decision is in Buffalo Bills. I liked
it a minus six six and a half Los Angeles
Chargers at the Cleveland Browns. This one has come down
a lot since the games ended on Sunday night. It
was Cleveland, it was the Chargers minus three and a half,

(38:44):
now down to two. Yeah, more money on the Browns
than she gets, which is interesting to me. This to
me feels like in overreaction to the Browns, like people
are either deciding, Okay, the Browns are finally going to
be the Browns that we expect them to be. Their

(39:05):
defense is getting healthy, they're going to be dominant, and
Jamis is going to play the way Kevin Stefanski, who
I think is a great coach and has just gotten
kind of screwed with this Deshaun Watson bullshit. He finally
gets a guy who's closer to what he needs. I'm
going to go back to two plays Jamis fumble from
a sack late in the first half gives the Ravens

(39:29):
the lead ten to six. In that game, Jamis overthrowing
receiver Kyle Hamilton, just dropping the ball that would have
ended the Browns chances to win that game. I am
worried I will get that Jamis in any closer game.
I don't know if I can afford those kind of mistakes.

Speaker 2 (39:50):
Yeah, I think a professional early money, though, was smart.
It was the right side. They should have taken Jamis
as a three point dog or a three and a
half point dog at home against his Chargers team. That
I agree with you. Their whole identity is we wait
for you to make the mistick and that's how we win.
Like they just they don't make the mistakes. They hang
in these games, these ugly games, and then eventually they
get you because they have a great running attack and Herbert,

(40:13):
do we know, is one of the better quarterbacks in
the league. He's just inconsistent. But this year they can
hide that. With a great running offense. You don't need Joe,
you know, justin Herbert to be a top five guy
right now. That's the Chargers' identity is like, okay, we
don't need to have the ball in this guy's hands
all the time. We can rely on other guys and
a little bit of a little bit of gimmick, right,
A lot of their offense because they don't have great receivers,

(40:35):
It's a lot of gimmick offense, a lot of motion,
a lot of just trying to get their third tight
end wide open for five yard completion. Like that's what
their identity has been and it's been working. So you're
right to me that the numbers come down enough now
where I could be on this Charger side, But I'm
not in a rush to bet it. I think the
public will keep coming in with the professionals on this
Cleveland side, just because these are pretty honestly, pretty evenly

(40:58):
matched teams. Chad, Like, when I break this down, you know,
I have this number at Chargers minus one, So right
now I am showing value on the Browns. But you
just nailed it. I feel like I got away with
them last week with James, Like there was just a
couple of plays, like you said, and that was the
best game we could get from Jamis. He threw for
over three hundred yards. He was just locked in in

(41:21):
that second half, and you know that dropped by Cole Hamilton.
That that's why our money line hit on this Browns team,
like they should not have won that game. The guy
literally caught that three different times. He caught it three
different times and still somehow dropped it. So you're right,
Like I got to put my biases as side because
I do want to take the Browns here. It's like,

(41:42):
I feel like they have a whole new rujuvenation here
and they know they can kind of not get their
season back, but they can like there is a path
for them to somehow get to a wild card, and
to get there they have to win this game. So
you know, I wanted to be on the Browns, but
You're right, the numbers probably moved too, even though I'm
still showing value on the Browns here. It's it's gonna

(42:03):
hit up pointhere. It's like I'm gonna feel more confident
comfortable taking the Chargers team. So I'll just be patient here,
wait for this number to keep coming down. I'll take
the Chargers team that makes you make mistakes, and this
is the perfect opportunity for them to play against a
team with Jamis Winston.

Speaker 1 (42:16):
I'm glad you say that because in the notes here,
I wrote at this point, I'm starting to lean Chargers,
like I haven't bet it yet, but I look at
the Chargers and I just feel like they're competent. You know,
they're not making the game changing mistakes. They're winning the

(42:37):
games they're supposed to win. Don't listen, mcconkis.

Speaker 2 (42:43):
But if they're the type of team too, if they
get down ten here, you know they're dead. Yeah, okay,
but I.

Speaker 1 (42:49):
Think it's I think it'd be really hard for them
to get down ten.

Speaker 2 (42:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (42:53):
The Ravens defense and the Ravens secondary is the perfect
antidote to Jamis wins in craziness, you know, like he
can look great against the secondary like that. I don't
think that it'll be the same outcome playing against the
Chargers defense. So I'm leaning Chargers. But we're not there yet.

(43:15):
They're not there yet, So it was a simon, says Washington.
And the New York Giants another dreadful performance last night
against the Steelers. They were six six and a half
point dogs. Every model, every trend, everything said take the Giants,
Take the Giants, Take the Giants. I was waiting on

(43:35):
that game because I felt like it was going to
get back to six and a half, so I hadn't
bet it. And then my wife and I took our
son out to dinner, and dinner went much longer than
I expected, and so I just forgot about the game
like we were at dinner. So I never bet it.
And I'm like, thank freaking God, because that would have

(43:56):
been an excruciating game to bet. Wow. I know you
talked about wanting to be on the Giants on Sunday night.
God Andrew Thomas is not playing. The home Dogs are
terrible this year. The Giants continue to look like during
a free fall. Explain to me, just tell.

Speaker 2 (44:18):
Me, yeah, And I shocked in the eye. It's rare
that I don't watch a football game, but I basically
took Pittsburgh's money line whatever it was, say it was
minus two fifty, and I go, all right, I have
zero interest watching this game. I'm just gonna watch the
World Series. And even though the World Series game wasn't great,
I'm so happy I watched it rather than watching this game,

(44:38):
just because I think at halftime it was nine to
nine and there was like three different touchdowns were called
back on on weird penalties and a bunch of different stuff,
and I just that game. I can't believe that Giants
didn't honestly cover, like they had the ball at end
of the game, they're driving to score the back door
cover and of course Daniel Jones throws an interception because

(44:59):
it is Daniel Jones. So I'm with you. Like we've
talked about this year, the bad teams are bad. They
are just really bad right now. And if this was
three four years ago, Chad, this would be a no brainer.
Hammer this commanders off of Hell Mary now on the
road in a divisional game against a team that once

(45:21):
again did not cover. You're right, It's like, you know,
this is not for the faint of heart. This is
this is what the professionals do. This is what I do.
I have to take this number, so I'm not going
to force it in. There's another game I like more
that I'm gonna try to force it on you, but
this is not the one. But I will see it
come Thursday if you've come around on this one. But

(45:41):
it's like, this is how I make my living these
type of games. This is such an incredible spot to
fade this commander's team, especially where Daniel Jones only plays
good against one team. Me and you joke about this,
it's the damn truth. If you go through his history,
it's the Commanders, like he plays well against them. Those
matter if it's on the road at home. The Giants
historically matchup well with the Commanders as well, not just

(46:03):
defensively but offensively as well. So there's a lot to
like here. But I get where you're coming from. They're
just they're so bad right now, this Giants team. And
I think though you saw it last that game against Pittsburgh,
they did make adjustments for being down key guys in
the offensive line, right, I mean, as great as CJ.
Watt is, they kind of neutralized them in that game. Right.

(46:25):
They kept going away from him to the other side,
and anytime they knew he was gonna come up field,
they put a tight end out there, block him down,
then just run right through that huge gaping hole that
TJ was giving up. So I do think, you know,
they do have some great coach and the Giants that
they can make these adjustments. But the biggest one is
just I want to fade this Washington team so bad. Chat,
it's just they got so lucky last week. I know

(46:47):
people think the Bears got lucky. Even though they had
a walk in touchdown, they fumbled at the one and
then drove the field again and scored another touchdown. People
are like, oh, you guys were just lucky to even
be in that position. Were we Were we the lucky
ones being on Chicago? Or should they have been up
twenty one to twelve at the end of that game?
So I'm not better. People can tell I'm not better
at all. But yeah, there's a hard one for me

(47:07):
because I really want to fade this Commander's team, but
I'm not going to force our listeners to take these
shitty divisional dogs just because I historically love this spot.

Speaker 1 (47:16):
Wait, the Bears lost that game against the Commanders because
I blacked out in the final twenty three seconds of
the game.

Speaker 2 (47:24):
Smart man, keep looking forward, So I.

Speaker 1 (47:27):
Don't know what you're talking about. I have no memory
of that whatsoever. I think you can actually see the
blackout happening live if you go through and look for
our question.

Speaker 2 (47:36):
Well, my favorite thing is people that watched that video,
they were like, They're like, there's no way Simon Bett's
real money on this games. Look how he'd barely even reacted.
If you really lost a ton of money, you'd be
so much more upset. That was even the worst thing
that happened to me this past week. People were subset
and overreact to it. It's just like guys, I've seen
it all. I mean, it brought back a memory my
worst bet. I didn't want to bring it up to
you on Sunday night, but to me, are still worst

(47:57):
bet ever. Even that was awful. Was one time me
and Chad had the Cardinals minus two and a half
and they threw a hell Mary pass. They won the game,
and Chad called me up to celebrate. I said, well,
they didn't kick the extra point yet, we haven't covered anything,
and they kneeled. You remember this, every was gonna kneeled
the ball down, didn't kick the extra point, and me
and him lost by half a point. To me, that's

(48:18):
still even though this was terrible, that forever was why
I was just forever burned by this whole thing with
you know, just been the two and a half. It's
such a key number.

Speaker 1 (48:27):
I do remember, having now known professional betters for twenty
five years, I don't know any betters who freak out
when they lose a big game. And I don't know
any betters who freak out when they win a big game.
Like when I was freaking out, I was freaking out
as a fan, not as someone who had the game right,
Like I could give a shit about the bet I made.
I just was like apoplectic that this team that I love,

(48:50):
that I invest so much energy in that I am
like growing more and more attached to as I get
older and I have no kids in the house soon
to be anymore, Like you know, you have memories of them,
and it's like a connection and it keeps me connected
to friends and family and like it's something we talk about.

(49:12):
So I just want them to do well. I've been
with betters when they win one hundred thousand dollars. You
know what they do, They put the money back in play.

Speaker 2 (49:22):
That reaction is how professionals react to those type of things.
It's just another day, another day at the fucking office
losing that type of bet I.

Speaker 1 (49:29):
Don't mind the defensive line of the Giants against Jadan Daniels,
like the Bears have a similar passage, similar coverage capabilities,
and Daniels had a pretty terrible game except for that
one career defining play, So I don't hate this I
understand all the logic. I just worry about the trend
right now with backing bad quarterbacks on bad teams is

(49:51):
not in our favorite.

Speaker 2 (49:52):
I'm with you, it's not fun. This is not a
little better.

Speaker 1 (49:55):
It was a little better last week, right, Jags.

Speaker 2 (49:58):
We went three and oh technically.

Speaker 1 (49:59):
Backs Colts, but four no Jags, Colts, Brown's Raiders, Like
the Raiders weren't in the contest, but we were on them.
So it's coming back our way with the record. This
is likely to be a luck rankings game favoring the
Giants definitely. All right, Chicago at Arizona. We talked about
the Bears. You can actually track the change in the

(50:22):
line in the action app with the end of the
Bears game last night. End of the Bears game two
nights ago, the Cars were one point dogs at six
forty six, when the Bears were still down twelve to nothing.
At seven pm, they were half point dogs. At seven
thirty pm, the Bears were one point the Cars were
one point favorites, and at seven thirty four, about when

(50:43):
the Bears scored the goal had touchdown, there were one
point dogs again. As soon as the game ended, the
Cars were favorites. Again, this is a pros Joe's game
right now with the pros on the Bears. So their defense,
despite the hail mayor of fiasco, it's really good oppression
in the quarterback, really good in the red zone.

Speaker 2 (51:01):
Yeah, Bears are the better team. They should be favored
in this game. I want nothing to do with this game.
I want to see how the Bears team reacts to
that type of thing we already talked about. This is
either gonna rail their season or this is gonna make
their season. They're gonna be in a wildcard team and
like that, that's a defining game, sopecially for Kayleb Williams,
where I don't know if you saw the video of
him into that game. Not the best look, but again,

(51:21):
he's a young kid who's gonna have to learn how
to lose in life. Like he's been a winner his
whole life. I guess he did lose a little bit
at USC, but overall he's just the guy who always wins,
and now we have to see how he can handle
these brutal losses because you know, as a Bears fan,
this is just the beginning. Brother, It's like that meme
first time, Like he's got to get used to this.

(51:42):
The Bears are suffering franchise. They have losses like this,
It's just how it is with this team. Certain teams
are just built this way. And Arison on the flip side,
how do they handle winning two straight Chad like this
is a team now in total control of this division.
If they if they can win this game and keep
it going, who's this say they can't win this division
like they do. You know, we and you talked before

(52:03):
the year. We loved Kyler and the talent they surrendered
with an offense. Our question was their defense, which still
is pretty bad. So matchup wise, the Bears should be favorite.
The professional money should be coming on them because they're
not like me and you. They're not getting drowned into this.
How these teams can react to this. So they're just

(52:23):
simply playing their model, and the model is going to
say the Bears are the better team. They should probably
be minus two minus two and a half on this
Bears team. But yeah, I'm too close this one. I
want to take Arizona, but I'm just going to stay
away from this game. I'll probably en up betting Arizona
if it does get up to Tube. But right now.
I have no role read on this one.

Speaker 1 (52:40):
That's interesting. I thought, like my instinct immediately bet the Bears.
I had no concerns with that whatsoever. And it's not
because I think eber Flus is a great coach, you know.
I think the Bears should have let him go and
they should have given Caleb, you know, some stability with
a coach who they believed would be there for several years.

Speaker 2 (53:00):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (53:00):
I'm not going to be pushing him out after one
bad year because he's already proven he can't do it.
I just feel like it's a it's a good spot,
like the Bears should not be underdogs in this game.
If it got to Bears plus two, I would be
very comfortable playing the Bears as underdogs.

Speaker 2 (53:14):
Here.

Speaker 1 (53:15):
Jags at Philly, you were leading Jags. Jags are seven
and a half point underdogs, you were leaning Jags on
Sunday Night.

Speaker 2 (53:23):
How come I just got through the numbers too big?
And then I found out that basically the whole Jaguars
where I receiving corps is just gone. You know. Christian
Kirk done, my guy, Brian Thompson Jr. My miss two
to four weeks. That reflects this line and the movement
like this, to me, the number is gonna be too big.
And now it's like, okay, this actually makes perfect sense

(53:45):
now because you know Trevor Lawrence, as bad as he's been,
he does have some great He did have some great
weapons on the outside, and a lot of that has
been on him. He's even said it so himself. He's
been inconsistent this year. Then they gotta have Ingram's back,
which is a huge deal. This tight end is just
a monster, and you know Trevor Lawrence knows how to
throw to them. It's like, all right, put the ball

(54:06):
up higher than anyone else. Van Ingram's incredible at high
points in the ball. I don't know if Eva's going
to make up for them losing their number one, number
two receiver though, And that that to me is what
stand out here. So a game I'm happy to avoid
now because it's so big. If you want to tease
the Eagles, I'll tease them with you, like this is
a good teaser number. Eagles are gonna win this game.
I just could see with this Jacks team keeping it close.

(54:28):
Because this Eagles team, I mean, last week was a
breakaway from the norm. They actually blew a team out,
but they have not been that team. And a couple
of professionals view is this is that this Eagles team
they went to that bye week, you know, Fangs made
adjustment to the defense. The guys seem like they got
more comfortable. These rookies have been playing better for the
Eagles defensively and the just everyone seems like they know

(54:49):
that system more and then offensively, Kurts has not turned
the ball over. That's been the difference for them, right,
He's not making the stupid turnovers. When he does throw
fifty to fifty balls downfield, it's fit fifty fifty where
his guy's gonna catch it or no one's catching it. Right.
He's kind of figured out what he needs to be
this season, and they're the number two team right now
in the NFL and rushing obviously, the Ravens are way

(55:11):
ahead of them. They're ahead of everyone. They've been incredible
running the ball, but we've seen Saquan and Hurtz have
kind of figured this thing out, right, They've really figured
out how to run it with both these guys, and
this is a nice matchup first Aquon against this team
and the Jaguars that cannot stop the run. So I
get why this numbers moved up so much, and I'm
happy to pass on the chat. It's just I have

(55:32):
no faith betting the Jaguars again, like you said last week.
Kind of got away with them last week, so I'm
not trying to roll the dice once again on this
Jaguars team.

Speaker 1 (55:40):
And by the way, none of us are immune for
mistakes in our very limited PTI segment earlier today, I
said Darryl Mooney, I meant Darniel Mooney. Simon just said
Brian Thompson. He meant Brian Thomas, receiver for the Jacks.
The La Rams at Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night. You

(56:01):
loved the Rams at plus one and a half. It
almost immediately moved to Rams plus one, and then they
were favorites pretty quickly after that. It has bounced around.
Some books have the Rams as dogs right now, others
have them as faves. The pro seem to be on

(56:24):
the Seahawks right now. Teams coming off a loss of
three touchdowns or more the following week fifty six percent
against the spread since twenty eighteen. Do we still love
the Rams here?

Speaker 2 (56:41):
Still love them? I'd still bet them because it's under
the key number, which you always talk about two. So
right now the highest I'm seeing in Los Angeles minus
one and a half at a couple books still love
the Rams. I just don't think the books have updated
their line enough to having Pooka and Cooper cup back
to me, they didn't adjust to it last week, they
haven't adjust to it this week week as well, So
I'm still getting value here. And I don't think they've

(57:02):
downgraded the Seahawks team enough where you know, coming too
the year, people thought they were gonna be much better
defensively just because of the head coaching higher and then
another year of Geno in this offense should be better.
Gino has been passing, has incredible passing yards, but he
struggled in the red zone this season. Defensively, this is
a team that just can't stop the run. And you know,

(57:23):
as much you want to talk about how great the
Rams are through the air, their whole identities built through
the run and everything they do is predicated off of that.
So unless there's some bad weather coming into this one,
and I'm missing this right now because so early in
the week, how do you not love the Rams to
be able to move the ball against them, like the
weapons they have. I think we both agree that Vikings
defense is much better than that Seahawks defense, and especially

(57:46):
all the exotic blicks packages that the Vikings defense did,
all the different looks they can give you. The Stafford's
don't mean to it. He's seen it all. That's why
I talked about I think better in quarterbacks had a
huge advantage playing against that Vikings team. Guys who have
seen it all. They don't get flustered by those type
of looks. Sam, you can go for the Seahawks. I
don't know what the Seahawks defense can do attack wise
to stop this offense in the LA and the flip side.

(58:09):
This Rams team, I mean, Aaron Donald was a huge loss.
Their front four has actually been pretty good this year,
Like they're not that terrible that people thought they were
going to be coming to the season. Like their real
weaknesses their young secondary. But I think the Seahawks are
still gonna bebout DK Metcalf, which we saw last week
was a big deal. Like there was a noticeable difference
of them not being able to tack the ball downfield
and the Bills instead of having to have both safeties back.

(58:32):
They only only had to have one drop back and
they could stack the box against Keneth Walker, which is
a big deal. Like the Seahawks want to feed him,
they want to run the ball. When you take that
away and put on Gino, we see that that just
doesn't work. He's not that type of quarterback. So still
like this number, it's still under two. I'll still bet
the Rams, obviously. I hope everyone listens Sunday night because

(58:52):
it's just it's nice you get the plus one and
a half. It's such a key number, especially with this
Rams team.

Speaker 1 (58:58):
Yeah, everything you're saying makes total sense. I think we
asked ourselves last week. We thought the Bills Seahawks was
a statement game for the Seahawks in that are they
going to to be defined as a good team or
a mediocre team? And the Bills, We've said they struggle
against the good teams, and they dominate the mediocre teams.

(59:23):
And they dominated. They dominated so badly that the Seahawks
were fighting with each other on the sidelines. So the
Rams are steady, their veteran they have a really good offense.

Speaker 2 (59:37):
It's the turning point of their season, right, don't you
feel the same way, it's the turning point of their season.

Speaker 1 (59:41):
Matthew Stafford doesn't get rattled like you said. We love Stafford,
We've loved Kyrine Williams. Kyron Williams. Between the tackles is
really really good. So yeah, I think we still like
the Rams. Rams are on the list. Rams are on
the list this week.

Speaker 2 (59:58):
People are all our favorite see we can change.

Speaker 1 (01:00:01):
Yeah right, well, the Rems they may be dogs like
we don't know yet, that's true. Detroit a green Bay
we haven't had, as Simon says, yet Detroit a green Bay.
Green Bay is plus three and a half. Obviously. Jordan
Love is the question here. He's day to day with
a grin growing injury. Shout out Sam Malone to all
the old heads out there.

Speaker 3 (01:00:22):
My guy like me who knows what it's like to
have it grownn.

Speaker 1 (01:00:30):
If not for that, we would want to bet green Bay.
Perfect fates bought for the Lions. They just dropped fifty two,
one of the two best teams in the NFL, the
best ATS team in a generation. They're outside, which isn't
a strength for them. The public loves them. Part of
me says, we don't even wait for the news on
Love like, here we go, maybe we get the Packers
at the biggest number we can.

Speaker 2 (01:00:52):
Simon says, right now, packers plus three and a half.
Sim says, do it? We say.

Speaker 1 (01:01:02):
Wow?

Speaker 2 (01:01:04):
And honestly, it's because the MRI came back negative this year.
As I saw that news, I was just there's no
way unless Jordan Love's really that banged up he misses
this game. Like people don't understand how insane a competitor
a lot of these people are. And Jordan Loves right
up there. Whether he is so competitive you think he
wants to miss this game where he knows this is
going to decide the division, Like this is a must

(01:01:26):
win for Green Bay if they want to win this division,
must win. And you nailed it, Detroit. How can we
Is there a team we could sell higher on right now?
This is like the peak of all peaks, Like they've
been incredible. Everything's clicking. They're the best team in football,
they have the best offensive football. People know we are
not doting that any way. This is the game where

(01:01:47):
Aiden Hudgerson not being there matters. This is the difference.
And you know, to me, there's a way to attack
this Detroit defense. And that's why I don't mind if
it's Malik Willis, because it is the run game. If
it is him and they're having to do that read
option that he's done so perfectly this season. I mean,
whatever little Floor did with this kid, Like we talked

(01:02:07):
about the time, how important coaching is. This right here
is the definition of this kid was lost. He was
out of the league pretty much. What do you get
traded for seventh round pick to Green Bay and he's
come in now. I think you can say even last
week he counted for that win. He's won them three
games this year, which.

Speaker 1 (01:02:23):
Is just he had a fifty one yard pass on
their drive. It's incredible he only threw for fifty six
yards in the game.

Speaker 2 (01:02:30):
Yeah, cause again the Floor knows that like this guy,
either you can scheme it up where he gets people open,
or you can just do that read option. He's such
a good runner that once he gets in there, it's
just their offense takes on a whole different attitude. So
I don't care who the quarterback is. I'm making, Sime says,
because I do think if Love is cleared by Thursday,
I could easily see this number getting down to three

(01:02:51):
and not get off the ski number because, like we
talk all the time, there's certain games every week that
are trap games. This feels like a trap game, Like
the public is going to come in so heavy on
this Detroit team without realizing that golf is different outdoors,
this team's personality is different outdoors. And how much regression
are they do for offensively? Like they can't keep this

(01:03:12):
up statistically, It's impossible to keep doing what they've done.
I mean, me and you have been around long enough,
we know all the numbers. Teams just don't do what
they do every week. Right. Eventually they do come back
down to earth, and this is the perfect prime spot
for that. So a nice by low spot on green Bay. Right,
Betters are pissed off of them. I think they have
the same view as Chad of Like if you had

(01:03:33):
that minus three and a half ticket last week on
Green Bay, you were pissed at this team. They should
have won that game and every which way. That rookie
running back, I think he's a rookie. He laid down
instead of walking it in. Right, Jaguars are gonna let
him score a walk in touchdown. He was smart enough
to lay down. Betters don't think that way. They're pissed off.
So not only does Detroit have a ton of love
from the public side, they probably have some love from

(01:03:54):
professional sides who are a little pissed off of this
Green Bay team. And that's where I swoop in. Now
I am pissed. This number did get up to four
four and a half and a couple of books, and
we saw after the Mri Jordan love it moved the
whole point. It came back down to this number here
at three and a half. So obviously wish we had
gotten the best possible number four and a half. I'm
still so happy taking this at three and a half.

(01:04:15):
I make this number two and a half, So getting
a full point of value, especially it costs two key
numbers and this type of matchup, I love this for us,
for listeners, it's just this is what this show is
built on. Bet in this type of spot here where
we know comes Sunday, it's going to be ninety percent
of the money, ninety percent of the tickets all on Detroit.

(01:04:36):
The sports books need Green Bay to have a winning day,
all that nonsense, But that's the stuff we ling into
you because we're getting a free point of value here.
So yeah, I love green Bay in this spot.

Speaker 1 (01:04:46):
Your enthusiasm is infectious. I hope the line doesn't move
so much before off the air that I can't get
this number. But we're green Bay three and a half.
Simon says, green Bay plus three and a half. Time
to fade the boys from Village City, who we love,
no disrespect. I think they're going to the super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (01:05:05):
We're just riding the waves.

Speaker 1 (01:05:07):
Riding the wave Indian Minnesota, Minnesota's six point favorite.

Speaker 3 (01:05:12):
Heads up quick producer's note. This was recorded just before
Joe Flacco was announced the indie starter for Sunday, so
it will not be Anthony Richardson. It should be Joe
Flacco under center. So just be advised during this conversation.

Speaker 1 (01:05:32):
I don't really have a read on this one yet. No, no,
oh my god.

Speaker 2 (01:05:36):
Gotta love the vikings here. Anthony Richardson against Brian Flores.
Holy shit, talk about a mismatch. Terrible, terrible matchup for
this Colt team. And it's funny too, because I know
some professionals who love the Colts. They've come in on
the Colts. They like the number. They think Minnesota is
about to go right down the other side of the hill. Right,
they rode the hill all the way up. Now they're

(01:05:56):
ready to fade this Minnesota team and come back down
their side. So I'm getting a Minnesota team awful loss
with extra time against a quarterback that has the same
completion percentage as who's a Ryan fucking Leaf names you
were given out last week and again if you go
throw the tape on though, Anthey, Richard is not as
bad as people perceive, Like a lot of this stuff
is out of his control, but he is bad, Like

(01:06:19):
there is no denying that he is bad. Right now,
and me and you talk coming to the year, this
is this kid's rookie year. I know it's not to
say that on paper, but it is. He just needs
more repetition, more starts.

Speaker 1 (01:06:29):
Only.

Speaker 2 (01:06:29):
That's why people calling for Joe Flacco the cults are
not trying to just win this year. They're trying to
win for the next ten years. It does no good
to s Anthony Richardson. You need him to suffer and
go through these reps. This is a game he's gonna
need to suffer through. Like I just I can't imagine
him trying to deal with everything Brian Floors is gonna
throw at him. In this matchup, especially with extra time
to prepare. So this number is a number I'm not

(01:06:52):
gonna rush to bet just because I know there are
professional smart groups out there coming in on Minnesota, but
I mean on the Colts. But if this does dip
the five five and a half at any book, I'm
gonna grab it right away on Minnesota. I just I
like them in this spot, like the number, and like
the matchup for them, especially offensively. They can not only
run the run the ball down this Colt Steam's throat.
They're gonna be able to scheme guys open. We know

(01:07:13):
this Colts defense is not that well like no, I
mean last week they had guys open. It was just CJ.
Not that he was flustered. He was just kind of
missing guys right, That was just a game that he
wasn't in his best debt. So I know it's it's
tough for me to take someone that's such a big
favorite in this type of spot. But I am I
uncomfortable just because of floor is in this defense.

Speaker 1 (01:07:34):
See the reason why I had no read on it
is because the Colt rush offense is so elite, yeah,
so dominant. I worry that they'll just figure out ways
to keep the ball out of Richardson's hands, and we.

Speaker 2 (01:07:48):
Talk about it's Minnesot's weakness, right running the ball down there. Running.

Speaker 1 (01:07:51):
That's that's why I'm sort of like something here, like
Minnesota struggling. They're getting exposed a little bit.

Speaker 2 (01:07:59):
They are. We we talked. I don't if you're talking
about about other guys, but Minnesota. You've probably seen this
them on script. Sam Darnold offensively is incredible, right, That's
why they've been dominating these first quarters. Once it goes
off script, we've seen them kind of struggle now these
last couple of weeks. So I get where're coming from
with that. But my whole view of is if we

(01:08:20):
can get the Viking scene we've known this year and
they get up ten to nothing or fourteen nothing, that
to me, that would be game over because by then
the Colts would have to ban their run. So you're
right for your hesitation here. Obviously, there's other favorites I
like more. It's just it's rare for me to really
like a big favorite like this, and I do like
Minnesota in the.

Speaker 1 (01:08:36):
Spot Tampa Bay visiting Kansas City. Kansas City is a
nine point favorite all I'll say, is I like the
Bucks here?

Speaker 2 (01:08:44):
Yeah? I know. I don't want to do it to
our fans, though I don't know if I can do
it to them and make them take this one. Because
I was getting a lot of messages about the Raider,
especially when they were down by fourteen and people are
just losing their mind. I just said, be patient, we'll
get there. But in the back of mine, I was like,
are we gonna get there? I'm banking a lot on
Gordon Minshew here to get us there. Sam goes for

(01:09:04):
this Bucks matchup. We know the deal, like they're a
totally different team without Mike Evans. We saw it last
week and Baker can only do so much. You can
only run the ball so much. I throw it to
your running backs and tight end so much. So I
don't know. Check the number is huge. I'm with you
that it's too big. I make it seven. It's eight
and a half. So yes, I'll be on the Bucks.
But I just I cannot make this one of our five.

Speaker 1 (01:09:26):
I feel like we're gonna have to discuss it again
on Thursday. To me, the big difference, like I don't
want to be fooled by what Baker did against the
Falcons when they can't get any pressure, and so he
has sort of those safety valves to the running backs,
to the tight end. Kate Atton had an amazing game.
The Chiefs defensive backs much better than the Falcons. The

(01:09:51):
Chiefs pressure much much better than the Falcons. They're getting
John Uja from the Patriots. So like, there are things
that bring me hesitation. So I don't want to get
too enthusiastic about the Bucks, but from a number side,
it's it's the Bucks or nothing.

Speaker 2 (01:10:09):
It is. But again, it's another game where if you
if you just tease the Chiefs down, I feel like
that's just a smarter move.

Speaker 1 (01:10:15):
In this one is you know what. I'm not even
gonna put it on the list for Thursday. Good it's
off the list. We got ten other games we can
talk about on Thursday. Simon says, is Green Bay plus
three and a half get it before Jordan Love is
officially confirmed as playing. Even if he's not, we still
like it. We both like it. Exec Decision Buffalo Bills

(01:10:36):
taken onto a in Buffalo minus six if you can
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(01:11:20):
and I will return with the next episode of The
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(01:11:49):
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