The Favorites - NFL Week 10 Betting Preview

The NFL marches into November, and Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are ready for NFL Week 10. Together discuss every other game on the board from a betting perspective, including a Giants vs Panthers stinker in Germany and a Detroit vs Houston clash in Texas. What are the trades that are moving the needle at the deadline? Will the Chiefs ever lose a game? And are the Bills ready to romp over the Colts?

Plus, we get a recap of Week 9 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday, Week ten episode where we break down the
entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exec
decision and our assignment says and start to narrow down

(00:31):
the options for our five phaves to put into the
Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.
We went two and three this past week, a miraculous
two and three. It came down to rookie quarterbacks twelve
second scramble that turned into a touchdown covering play, Thank you,

(00:53):
Drake May and a veteran quarterback's overtime bomb that turned
into a one handed game winning in game covering catch.
Thank you as always, Matthew Stafford that our Favite Friends
is betting in a nutshell live from our Tommy John
Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always, buy my co host,

(01:14):
my companion Mike and padre My BFF Professional Better Sigmon
Hunter at us.

Speaker 2 (01:19):
I'm ed, Chad. How are we doing? My man?

Speaker 1 (01:23):
Big Day? Big Day? You know what today is Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
No, It's biggest day of the year for many of us,
isn't it.

Speaker 1 (01:29):
I think I know what you're talking about. Do you
know what you're talking about? Yeah, trade deadline, trade deadline.
It's rocking and rolling right now. We've got Marshaun Lattimore
leaving the Saints, yeah, one to the Commanders. We got
Mike Williams leaving the Jets, He's going to the Steelers.
We've got Zadarius Smith leaving the brown leaving the Browns,
He's going to Debt Dot Dot dot the Lions. Like,

(01:54):
there's a lot of stuff going on. We're definitely going
to discuss those moves. Do we think they have any impact?
Because what's interesting is all of these guys have gone
to teams that are contending. All of these guys have
gone to teams that are involved in games this weekend

(02:14):
where the numbers might be showing an edge one way
or the other. So how will these moves impact, if
at all, our opinions on these games? You know what
I'm saying.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
Yeah, I was gonna say, are there any teams You're
surprised I haven't made moves? Right now? For me? Houston
jumps out I'm shocked they've not made a single move.
I mean, I guess they know they're gonna get guys back,
but like their offensive line has been brutal, and you think,
you know, maybe just try to get one of these
cheap receivers. Like there seems like there's a lot of
guys out there that teams are willing to move right now,
so they're eyeing that pops out to me of like

(02:50):
a lot of teams that made moves today and they're
the one at the top of their division that hasn't.
That's a little shock. And where we've seen the Bills
make a move, we've seen the Chiefs make a move,
We've seen the lines make them move, Like these are
the teams that are the same level as them. Like
that's that's just it's interesting they haven't made a move Houston,
where they were so aggressive this past offseason.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
Yeah, but they've been really interesting in how they're managing
their draft picks, and they probably look at what they
have and are thinking, Okay, we're a really talented team.
We can probably win our division. We believe we can
win our division without having to make the desperation move.
Whereas if you look at the Commanders, they're still locked

(03:28):
in a race with the Eagles. If you look at
the Lions, they know they're going to have a hole
at the edge without Aiden Hutchinson for the rest of
the year. So if you look at the Steelers, they're
going to be locked in a race if they're lucky
with the Ravens. So I can see why the why
the Texans would hold off for a minute because they
probably feel like they can at least win their division

(03:50):
and probably not going to be in contention for a
buye so it might be worth it to hold. Pat Simon,
what the public has done the past few weeks is
nothing short of historic. In a moment, will recap the
week nine results in our contest, will announce the winner

(04:11):
of our big weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet,
be sure to sign up for the Free Favorites Podcast
one hundred thousand dollars pro football pick and contest presented
by Bet three five. Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet
three sixty five and now new BET three sixty five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.

(04:32):
When you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars a place to bet for five dollars
to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet
three six five, must be twenty one or older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

(04:57):
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. Congrats week nine first place
winner Jay Shively. Jay went five to zero, missed the
Monday Night football tiebreaker by one yard. He takes home

(05:23):
our weekly thousand dollars prize. Well done. Producer Matt Mitchell
has selected his Producer's Cup Award to the entry that
finished dead fucking last in the contest. Have you heard
about the Lords Loser?

Speaker 2 (05:38):
He's a lois about he still kids.

Speaker 1 (05:41):
On Try this week's Producer Cup goes to Robert Ferrer,
who went on to five missed the tiebreaker at two
hundred and fifty one years. Robert, please email our producer
at podcast at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.
All right, I mentioned it. It's worth reminding everyone when

(06:04):
we talk about the public, we're referring to the games
they get more than fifty one percent of the betting tickets.
You can always track all that in the Action networkapp
actionnetwork dot com. You go to the adds pages on
the site, the public betting pages. You can see where
the betting ticket percentages are. We usually like to fade
that side. The past three weeks, the betting public has

(06:31):
gone forty three twenty nine and one against the spread.
Prior to that, it was winning at a covering at
a forty one percent clip. So they are the almost
the mere opposites of each other. The first five weeks
was the worst the public had ever performed in twenty

(06:52):
years of tracking. Past three weeks, it's been quite good.
That is what we are battling right now, Simon, are
we ready to die? Then to the full slate, because
I know we both got an opinion on Thursday night.

Speaker 2 (07:04):
Yeah, I can't wait.

Speaker 1 (07:06):
Cincinnati Baltimore. We talked about it Sunday. I'm not mistaken.
We both love the Bengals here. I feel like this
was the game other than the Rams that you mentioned,
with the most conviction.

Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yeah, just on the number, right, it was six and
a half. I said this, this can't stay this high.
This is going to have to come down, Like, there's
no way this number stays as high in the divisional
game in our short week. We already talked about our
questions about this Ravens defense and can they get healthy
and just turn it around in a week's you know,
four days, Like that's the tough thing about these these
Thursday night games, Like we'll see the injury report, right,

(07:45):
I'll have better read on that Thursday morning. But that
was really all about grabbing the six and a half
early because I knew it was gonna come down. Now
it's at six. Saw a couple of books pop five
and a half and I kind of jumped back up.
So clearly there's professionals that like the other side as well,
which makes sense, right. The Ravens have been incredible, and
we know how good their offense is. Lamar is playing
at the MVP level. So this game is just a

(08:08):
really great Thursday game and we're just playing the number.
But it's one that I'm happy we can't put in
the contest, honestly, chat because I could see us taking
this Bengals team and they're just having some type of heartbreak,
right They're just this season has not gone the way
they planned, even though Joe Burrow is playing at such
a high level MVP level. Man, is their defense bad?

Speaker 1 (08:27):
Yeah, So it's interesting to me. I feel like we
would definitely put this in the count.

Speaker 2 (08:34):
I wouldn't let us say, like, this is what's been
burning us this year, this exact game.

Speaker 1 (08:38):
Well, look the challenge here is, and it's at six.
I'd still better at six, by the way, I did
bet it at six.

Speaker 2 (08:45):
Yeah, at six, I bet it at six.

Speaker 1 (08:47):
And And how much are we taking away from the
Ravens being dominant against Bonnicks, right Like, I feel like
they're getting I feel like they're getting the benefit of
the doubt and a little bit of an inflated number
from bookmakers and from the public. And because Bonix couldn't
take advantage of their truly awful secondary and their season

(09:13):
long inability to stop the passing game. And so remember
this is again, this is a team ten days ago
that made Jameis Winston look so good people wanted to
bet on Jamis Winston following week, Like the transitive property.
We got to think about that. We can't just look
at these games in sort of one window, right, And

(09:33):
so the Bengals number one against pressure, the Ravens defense
twenty fourth. The Ravens d has given up forty eight
explosive plays this season by far, most in the NFL,
twenty eight passes of twenty plus rushing yards. So we
know that the Ravens rushing offense will dominate the Beangals

(09:56):
like they're pass They're rushing defense is not good. It's
not good. So really, to me, this goes back to
what we talked about early in the year, like who
are the quarterbacks? We don't want to see with the
ball when they're down, And if the Bengals are down thirteen,

(10:21):
which is possible with four minutes left, yeah, and they
have the ball, do I really not want to have
bet on Joe Burrow.

Speaker 2 (10:33):
It's also they played early in the year and we
should have won that bet we took the Bengals. I
think it was at plus two and a half and
it was the wonkiest game ever. Remember Joe Burrow had
that interception and that kind of flipped the whole game,
like they're about to go down and I'd be up
double digits.

Speaker 1 (10:47):
That's right.

Speaker 2 (10:47):
So yeah, yeah, so we know this seems on that scary.
My old issue chat is just the spread, Like that's
why I didn't get when it opened at six and
a half. It's like, I know it's a Thursday games,
we're getting extra points here for free, but shouldn't I
go out the window when it's like these teams are
pretty evenly matched in the same division. So that's that
was my only hesitation was why is this number so huge?
And maybe it is because the books know all the teasers,

(11:10):
all the parlays will be tied to this, right, people
like tying these games until the Sunday and the Saturday slate.
That's just my hesitation here is like, yes, this is
very attractive, Dumble. We're not shocking anybody here. Most professionals
on the same boat as us. It's like it's a
big number. I like that side. I'm just trying to
give you the hesitation of why I think I wouldn't
make it one of our five. Is just there's all

(11:31):
something a little fishy about them giving us this huge
of a number. It's as if they're saying this Ravens
team is about the role, like going a little bit
of a run here, because I agree, the Ravens have
not played good well enough this year to get this
many points, so I know we have to keep it moving.
But it's just it's an interesting number that's this high
with the Ravens defense that, like you said, until last week,
they hadn't stopped anybody.

Speaker 1 (11:52):
Home teams Thursday Night this season six and three, but
since twenty twenty, it's six and three against the spread
since twenty twenty eight and forty two against the spread.
Home teams have more than three in the AFC North
since twenty eighteen. It's how infrequently it happens because these
teams are always so tight. Twelve and twenty against the spread,

(12:12):
so interesting. Fans and number favorite Bengals who day New
York Giants, Carolina Panthers. Another game we can't put into
the contest. It's the Germany game. Zero opinion on this game.
Daniel Jones had zero passing yards in the first half.
Last week, the Giants dominated time of possession of the game.

(12:34):
They ran for one hundred and forty year olds in
the first half. They lost, They didn't cover. These are
two teams that are just at the bottom ten in
every single statistical measure. The European trend in international game says,
here we go, take the favorites. Yep, I guess that's
what you do.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
That's what you do, Like, don't ever think it. Just
take the favorites, take the number. I agree. Another fishy line, like,
in what world should the Giants be a minus five
favorite over anybody? It's it's when they're in an international game.
So yeah, I'm with you on that one. It's I'm
glad we can't put it in either because I unfortunately
I do have to bet the Giants here. But I
make the line minus six, So right now there's a

(13:14):
point of value to this Giants team. But it's simply
because it's an international game. I really playing it heavily
towards the favorite for international and it's been profit this year,
right I think, yeah, yeah, overall it's it's it's really
worked out betting just the favorites in this international games.
Oh sign, I know I'm a sucker.

Speaker 1 (13:36):
The New England Patriots are visiting this game. Cargo Bears.
Chicago Bears are six and a half point favorites. I've
gone deep into the rabbit hole on this game, uh,
because this is one of those games where I'm actually
trying to fite my intern obias. So I wanted I

(14:01):
want to gather like as much as I could, like
to make sure I'm not doing anything with the Bears
that could be perceived as bitterness because I'm just so disappointed.
I'm so disappointed in this team. Like I'm so disappointed
that they kept Eberflus. I'm so disappointed when eber Flus

(14:22):
has lost the team. I'm so disappointed. There was this
viral video going around yesterday amongst Chicago fans where they
showed all these plays, one where DJ Moore just walked
off the field in the middle of a play, one
where he stopped running on it out, you know, like
like I needed to find the forest for the trees here.

(14:46):
I don't want to fall prey to the notion that
like we've seen something special in New England just because
Drake May gave us our baby miracle and Caleb Williams
is completing fewer than thirty percent of his throws of
more than fifteen yards, which is like amongst the worst
in the league. But Jared Mayo is a terrible coach. Two,

(15:12):
he called the team soft and yeah, got two miracle comebacks.
One was a win against the Jets and ot loss
to the Texans. Like I know what I think we
should do? Yeah that the Patriots.

Speaker 2 (15:28):
Yeah, but I would say the number dictates if for
you're here, like, there's one more there's one book out there,
that's the six and a half. If you want the Patriots,
go grab it. I'm cool with waiting and let this
be bet down. If we can get five and a
half on the Bears, I would take that at that
once a move that much because this was seven, and
I think the number the move is warranted because when
this opened at seven, it's like that's that's too many

(15:51):
points for this Bears team. That like, like I said,
that game against Washington mighty dictate their whole season, Like
how are they going to respond to that? So far?
Their response is terrible In one game, man, Now, this
is the exact spot they need. I told you before
that game too against Arizona Caleb's splits were terrible, his

(16:11):
road and home splits. His passing is just like it's
It's clearly there's there's something going on there where, like
he is more comfortable at home for some reason. And
it could be who they played, right, They've played bad
teams this year at home and on the road. They've
had tougher games. But I think as a whole, the
Bears have been good to us back in them at

(16:31):
home in this exact spot. So I'll let the public
come in and bet this down. But I did want
to be on the Patriots, but this point the number
is gonna move too much. And at six, which where
I pretty much just make the number, I'm not gonna
just take the numbers to take. I'm gonna wait for
them to be value. So if it's five and a half,
I'll definitely go Bears. If it's six and a half
on the Patriots, I'll probably end up just passing.

Speaker 1 (16:53):
Well, that's interesting. I thought you'd be much more adamantly opposed.

Speaker 2 (16:57):
I wanted to go on the Patriots, but we got
a whale. Like you said, we got a whale one
last week like this, this Patriots team is not good.
Oh yeah, yeah, they're not a good team.

Speaker 1 (17:08):
We so got away with it. Yeah, last week we
did not deserve that. That was one of those where like, yeah,
you say you bet the number, you bet the three
and a half.

Speaker 2 (17:17):
You do that's that is the definition of a brother
and landed right on three, Like you just play the number,
you try not to overthink it.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
Well, that's not what we've been great at this year.

Speaker 2 (17:27):
You're right line.

Speaker 1 (17:30):
All right, Well, we'll keep an eye on that that
Bears game. I don't want to dwell on it as
a Bears fan for the five people who's enter the
show that are Bears fans. But wow, has this just
gotten like if you are watching Chicago paying attention to
Chicago media, this has gotten ugly. Like Heberflus has been
revealed as the fraud of a head coach that he

(17:52):
is and as good as as Ryan Pace has been
in managing draft capital and making trades, he screwed the
poo which I'm not fire and Eberflucent and every Chicago
fan will tell you that it's because the casks are
cheap and don't want to fire a coach before his
contract is up and have to pay two coaches. But
it's gonna cost him. It's gonna bite him in the

(18:13):
ass on Caleb, it's gonna bite him on his development,
gonna bite him on losing a year of his contract
in his rookie and his rookie deal. Just bad Minnesota
at Jacksonville. This was a fascinating game to me because
I would say this was the last game I took
notes on in prepping for the show today because I've

(18:37):
been trying to think about where's the edge, and like,
I don't think there's a huge edge in the line.
It moved from five to four and a half to
four feels right.

Speaker 2 (18:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (18:52):
I felt like the pros were taking a stat on
a big number at five and moved down because that's
how they felt the number was rated. To me, this
is really like a transition game. And what I mean
is we've seen peak Sam Darnold and we've now started
to see him struggle a little bit more a few
games in a row, and we've seen the Jags have

(19:13):
made huge comebacks two games in a row. They haven't
won those games, but against the Packers and against the
Eagles like they were in it at the end. So
then I'm like, are we missed the number. Are we
fading a Vikings team? Are we trying to get the
Jags on the upswing? Or am I overthinking it?

Speaker 2 (19:35):
Yeah? And I you know, I talked a couple of
professional guys who liked the Jags or they liked this spot.
But I'm I'm totally out on this Jags team. They
are another team that feels like I get why guys
like them because they're never out of it, as proven
by last week. The thing about all the little things
that it bounced air way, I mean, they were down
twenty two nothing whenever the score was to get that
back door cover and even then Trevor Lawrence made such

(19:58):
a tale where read I can't get over it. Yeah,
like that could have changed their whole season, that type
of win. Uh, But yeah, I get why the pros
like it. Like me and you talk, we've we knew
eventually the league would catch up to San Donald.

Speaker 1 (20:10):
Right.

Speaker 2 (20:10):
You only can do the things he's great at for
so long before defenses are like, okay, we'll take that away,
make us beat us in a different way. And that's
what teams have been doing. But that was a great
game by him, Like they were down seven nothing in
a half, and you know, obviously the defense carried them.
I don't think the Colts took a snap inside the
Vikings twenty yard line, which is pretty incredible. But San

(20:32):
Donald makes big time thres and we talked about the
whole thing with Jayme and Justin Jefferson, like he just
has so much trust in him. So this is another game.
I'll wait, like the pros can keep betting. If this
gets a three and a half, I'll come in on
the Vikings. But I'm with you, it's like I don't
want to touch this number right now.

Speaker 1 (20:45):
Yeah, it feels like we missed the spot. If anything,
would you have taken it at five, I would.

Speaker 2 (20:50):
Have been the Jags, But I wouldn't have bet it
with confidence because it's like I still feel like the
people in the public have overreacted what to that cover
last week, Like if they if they get rolled, we're
getting good number, we're getting six, six and a half
on them, then then this is like, yeah, great spot
for the Jaguars. Now I think it's gone the other
way where the Vikings in't look great in that primetime
game and now the public is kind of like, yeah,

(21:11):
I'll take the Jags of the points. You're like, this
feels like a pretty good spot.

Speaker 1 (21:13):
So that's what it feels like. Yeah, it feels you know,
just at the most base level, it feels like people
are betting what they saw. I agree, Pittsburgh at Washington.
Washington is a three point favorite. As an Eagles fan.
You said before the show, it's upset into you how
much you love this Washington Commander's team.

Speaker 2 (21:37):
Just Chad, that was off air.

Speaker 1 (21:39):
Well, guess what, there's no such thing. If it's if
it's if we're seeing it before we come on the air.

Speaker 2 (21:45):
You know, Yeah, I got an image. I'll pull it here.

Speaker 1 (21:48):
I know it's true. You're hardcore Philly. Listen f around
and find out Simon f around.

Speaker 2 (21:55):
Yeah, I do. I love this Washington team. They're fun.

Speaker 1 (21:57):
They're a really fun team. And now they've traded they
made the true for Marshawn Lattimore. Will that improve their secondary?

Speaker 2 (22:04):
Yeah? I mean it can't hurt, it can't.

Speaker 1 (22:06):
It's I don't think it's a yeah. Oh my god.
Now I gotta bet the Commander's at minus three in
the same way that the Steelers training for Mike Williams
is and all of a sudden, all right, that did
it for me, right, This is a Mike Tomlin raw
Ross spot. What a raw rah Mike Tomlin spot.

Speaker 2 (22:24):
We win the game with this cruel bodies right here today.
Game to day.

Speaker 1 (22:32):
We decided on Sunday we talked about this game. We
were gonna wait to see if it get to three.
Didn't get there Sunday night, didn't get there all day Monday,
Finally got there about eleven thirty this morning on Tuesday morning.
The Steelers might they are a big, big public dog
right now, and the wise guy seem to be favoring

(22:52):
the Commanders here. Interesting, Tomlin is a dog on the
road sixty one percent against the spread in his career.
Why do you say interesting? Did you feel like the
wise guys would have been on the Steelers automatically here?

Speaker 2 (23:13):
Yeah? I thought it was gonna be public heavy Washington
the professionals to come back on Pittsburgh. But I mean,
I think from the chat, I feel like Evan had
an amazing stat about Tomlin against rookies. He's like twenty
five and five straight up against rookie quarterbacks. I mean
that might not be right, Evan, let us know, but
it's a stat where it's like you can't ignore those
type of things. Clearly, he knows how to prepare his

(23:34):
defense to really messed with these rookie quarterbacks. And yeah,
the fear with this is we are betting on this
Pittsburgh offense to travel on the road and we don't
know if that's possible yet. And we've seen Washington defense
isn't as bad as we thought they were going to
be coming the season. They've actually been pretty good. So yeah,

(23:56):
the two and a half, I said it on the
show and Sunday, if you wanted it, I'd grab Washington
there because I was like, it's only going to go up.
And yeah, now, like you said that, the fact that
there is early professional money coming on that side, I
don't mind it. Like last week we met a public
dog and we got away with it and the Patriots,
and I feel like it's the same spot here. It's
like I don't think the book's given a proper respect

(24:18):
to that team, and that team in this case is
Pittsburgh where their defense does match up well and offensively.
I do think there are things they're kind of figuring
out with Russell Wilson before the bye week. Now after
a bye week, don't we think their offense will be
better now with him after more time to prepare. So yeah,
all the points to taking this plus three number.

Speaker 1 (24:38):
I mean, especially now with Mike Williams Simon, this can
be the game they need to really secure. The compliment
to George Piketts. This is it. What's interesting to me
about the Steelers defense. They're not like dominant as they

(25:00):
have been. Like they're not dominant in pressure rate, They're
not dominant in expected points per pass. They're like even
yards per pass, yards per game, completion rate, like they're
pretty mediocre. There's two things that stand out. I wonder

(25:21):
if you even care about these, like as a professional,
better time to pressure the quarterback, meaning the amount of
time that a quarterback has to throw the ball, which
they're doing without blitzing. Like they're third best in the
league and they're doing this without blitzing the quarterback. Obviously,
they're much different with Alex Highsmith when he's playing, and
he missed those four games basically most of October. This

(25:43):
is third game back after missing the month. I think
this could be the best pass for us that Jaden
Daniels faces. If you look back at their schedule, it's
not like they're playing, you know, killer teams. It's the
Bears and it's the Steelers right now. And he struggled

(26:03):
against the Bears. I know people in the track get
mad about that he did struggle against the Bears.

Speaker 2 (26:09):
Yeah, just before we move on, Evan just confirming our chat.
Tomlin twenty five and five straight up against rookie quarterbacks.

Speaker 1 (26:15):
So come on, do we think this is an EXAC decision?
Do we think this is a Simon says.

Speaker 2 (26:21):
You can take it exact. I got. Simon says, I
got something gross for the people.

Speaker 1 (26:25):
I do too. I have four games that I identify
for my EXAC decision.

Speaker 2 (26:30):
All right, if you don't want this, I'll take it.
What's that I'll take the Simon says, if you don't
want it. When Simon says do it, we do what Sence.

Speaker 1 (26:39):
Says, all right, take it.

Speaker 2 (26:43):
Well, you seem like you were excited about your gross games.
I'm not excited about mine. For the record, it's just.

Speaker 1 (26:49):
I'm not excited about mine. But you know, it's like
I've had this experience the past few weeks now where all.

Speaker 2 (26:55):
Right, Matt tripping his hair out. All right, Simon says,
give me Pittsburgh plus three. All right, I can sense
Mat through his computer.

Speaker 1 (27:01):
Now it's a euphemism, you know, Matt ripping his hair out.

Speaker 2 (27:07):
The Bills make me want something. Throw your hair and
something throw your hair.

Speaker 1 (27:14):
Come on now, the Bills.

Speaker 2 (27:15):
I'm making it now.

Speaker 1 (27:18):
Buffalo at Indianapolis. Indianapolis is a four point dog. This
has moved in the Colts direction. Not entirely surprised. This
feels like a Bilo cell high scenario.

Speaker 2 (27:26):
Right.

Speaker 1 (27:26):
The Colts looked truly offul against the Vikings. The Bills
overcame a lot of mistakes, had to play to win
a tough divisional game against the Finns. They've got a
ninety chance to lock up the division. The Colts are
a covering machine, third best in the NFL. Four and
oh at home. I don't want to take the Colts,

(27:48):
but I feel like I have to do.

Speaker 2 (27:50):
No one wants to take the Colts. You have to
take the Colts. People. This is what the show is
all about. It sucks. I hate it too. This is
gonna be signing says Honestly, it's like, oh, was it really?

Speaker 1 (27:59):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (28:00):
And it's just it's a brutal I get it. This
is so brutal. For listeners out there, there's a couple
four and a halfs. If you can shop around, please
take the Colts four and a half. This is such
gonna be a close, ugly game where people a gonna
be like, how did they cover that number? Like we
tal talk all the time, you just play the number here.
I have just at three and a half. I've talked
a couple of pros who think this should be three.

(28:20):
So you know, again, I'm a little higher than most
on this Bills team. I just really love what Josh
Allen's done with them, and the Colts team is such
a great bilough. Like we just said, their offense on
national television couldn't get the ball outside the twenty for
an entire game like this is such a bounce back spot.
So I think the last time they played it is

(28:43):
a crazy memory. I think me and you had bet
the Colts plus three and a half. Oh no, that
was last week. Never mind, never mind, I was thinking
back to that Thanksgiving game. We were up thirty points
with a three and a half spread with the Colts
and the Vikings game all the way back.

Speaker 1 (28:57):
Oh yeah, that was that was actually a year ago.

Speaker 2 (28:59):
This, yeah, that was that was crazy, But there's nothing
to do with this game. But yeah, I like like
the Colts here, and the biggest thing to me is
just the run game. Like we saw last week against
that Vikings team. It really did fall on Flacco. He
just wasn't completing passes. If he does that a game,
obviously we're dead in the water. But I still think
their run team can move the ball, and that seems

(29:20):
like that's the Bill's weakness. I mean, h n everyone
in Miami. I think they rash for one thirty or one.
It just seems like that that's the Bill's weakness, like
pretty noticeably on defense this year.

Speaker 1 (29:31):
Yeah, what we've said a lot this year is when
we've bet these bad teams, we're looking for sort of
some kind of edge in one unit over the other.
And there is a clear distinction between the Colts run
blocking scheme. Forget about this past week against a incredibly
good Vikings defense. That is not who they're playing this

(29:53):
weekend against the Bills. They have a clear edge in
the run blocking scheme. So especially there's a run blocking
offensive line, all right, Colts would have been Simon Says
instead the Steelers or Simon Says I mentioned at the
top of the show that we are coming to you
live from our Tommy John Home studios. Great games start
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(30:14):
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(30:35):
if you love Simon or not. If you love this show,
you love Tommy John, get twenty five percent off your
first order right now at Tommy john dot com slash favorites.
Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. Okay, Denver,
Kansas City. I'm not gonna allow you. This was on
my list of potential exec decisions. You blanted this one
a bit on Sunday night, and you want to see

(30:56):
if it got to ten. But I did feel like
you were hesitant. I will tell you division favorites of
seven plus, covering just a forty nine percent clip the
past twenty seasons. Mahomes is a fave of three plus.
We know that's an ROI positive to bet against, including
last night Monday Night against the Bucks. So the question becomes, like,

(31:21):
how much do we worry about this Broncos defense When
they just played the Ravens, everyone was so high in
this Broncos d we were not. We're like, this feels trappy,
So we didn't bet the Broncos and they got filaid
by the Ravens, right, and so like they've played a
really easy schedule. It could be a reason why their

(31:42):
defense has been so good and ranking so well. But
I do think like it's a very different story in
the division. The Broncos getting the early money. Unlike last
week at Baltimore, teams off a blowout of twenty plus
points fifty seven following a week against the spread, and

(32:06):
Patrick Mahomes tweaked his ankle numbers moved from nine and
a half to eight and a half since last night.

Speaker 2 (32:13):
Yeah, and they're on a short week, so everything, You're right,
everything was plenty of taking this to every team. My
hesitation is just what you talked about the top. They
beat up on bad teams this year, and it took
Baker to play literally a perfect game pretty much in
that game for the Chiefs, so you have to sweat
it out right, like, I mean, it was incredible how

(32:33):
well he played, And that was a game I was
kicking myself where it's like we knew that number is
too big. I just didn't know how they were going
to cover it. And it was just really a miracle
cover by by Baker. He just played so well in
that game, made such big throws. Can boon Nicks do
the same chat like that? That Ravens game, they could
have covered it, but all their fourth down luck kind

(32:56):
of ran out on them and all the little things
that kind of bounced their way. I mean, it might
have been the first pass or second pass of the game.
Bnext through, a guy hits the guy's hands, pops her
up in there. It's a pick by the Ravens. It's
like it just started off on a bad foot. So
I'm with you. It's I wanted to be on Denver.
I was hoping to get a bigger number. Obviously it's
gone the other way because the Chiefs didn't cover. They

(33:16):
won barely in overtime. So the movement makes sense. The
early money coming on Denver makes sense. There is another
line shot. I'll probably wait. I mean, if it gets
down to seven, how do I not take the Chiefs
like they're the better team. It's gonna be the public
dog of the week, this Broncos team. But at eight
and a half, I'll take the Broncos right now. But

(33:37):
I just know in our contest that that's not gonna
be the number. It's gonna be bet down to six
and a half, seven and a half.

Speaker 1 (33:43):
I wonder if the Steelers will be a bigger public
dog than the Broncos just because of the Steelers' history
and the Broncos just getting blown out by the Ravens.
I'm not pulling the trigger on exact decision on this game, however,
but we like the Broncos at eight and a half

(34:04):
right now. Atlanta at New Orleans. We talked about it
on Sunday night before Dennis Allen was fired. We liked
the idea of backing the Saints. The line popped at
three and a half in a lot of places. It's
now back down to three home division dogs last two
seasons forty against the spread, So not a great killing me. Yeah,

(34:26):
not a great spot there. But now are we in
for the dead cat bounce? Is the team so thoroughly
embarrassed it can rally at home against a Falcons team
whose record is just much much better than its numbers.
Can they do it without Chris Olave? Can they do
it as a dog off a loss as a seven

(34:49):
point favorite. By the way, since two thousand and three,
sixty percent against the spread for teams in that spot.
I mean, look, this to me feels like if we're
going contrarian, if we're going to fade the public, if
we're gonna do everything that is the opposite of what

(35:10):
the square thing would be. You take the Saints here.

Speaker 2 (35:15):
No brainer, automatic one of our five. That's what like
we joked on Sunday Night, but this is literally what
this show is. It's like we buy low on the
lowest of teams, and this is the lowest of teams
right now, and you're selling high one of the highest
of teams in Atlanta. Like we both agree Atlanta, as
good as they've been, they're not that great of a team.

(35:37):
Like you can go back and look at a lot
of their wins and it's like they could easily lost
those games. They've just been incredibly fortunate this year. And
even if they win this one, it's not gonna be
buy more than three Like this to me feels like
the very classic whoever wins? I mean when they played
earlier in the year, what was that a win by
two Atlanta on a last second field goal? That feels
right like that feels like the exact same kind of

(35:59):
scenario here. And Drake London being banged up though it
is even bigger deal than me than Olive, Like he's
been huge for that team and especially Kirk on third
down this year. So hopefully there's no Drake London because
that would be another big bonus to us, just because
I don't think Olave is gonna play. And how's that
we already talking about? How is that not a big

(36:19):
deal to Deavin Carr, who's not that good of a quarterback?
I can I can admit that, especially after watching that
last game, like that Panthers game was brutal. I think
at the end of the game was fourth and three.
Instead of just picking up the first down, he throws
a deep fifty to fifty ball and it's like that.

Speaker 1 (36:33):
I feel like he's done that every time. We've had
so many games in which we were betting the Saints
this year, and so we've obviously watched them, and I
feel like I've seen Derek Carr make that same shitty
throat fade on a fourth down that ends up being
un catchable probably three times.

Speaker 2 (36:55):
So here it won't matter because we'll be down by
two at the time he does it, and we won't
even care. We'll get the cover. So this will not
be in my money line round Robin. This will not
be I won't do that to people because I don't
think they're gonna win. I think Atlanta they have whatever.
The Saints don't have to win these games close at
the end. Atlanta's has it right. Kirk has done it
this season in multiple different games. So yeah, this is

(37:16):
not what I'm putting in too much on the money line.
But plus plus three and a half now I'm definitely
grabbing this year.

Speaker 1 (37:22):
All right. So this was one of the four exec
decision games I was thinking about. I'm not tagging it yet.
San Francisco at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a six
point underdog, going to be in a short week playing
at home against the Niners. One thing matters here, Christian McCaffrey.
He is practicing this week. He is expected to play.
The line has moved. It was a five and a

(37:43):
half Sunday night, jumped to six and a half on
the news. It's down to six at Bet three sixty five.
Still some six and a half's available. This is this
is the difference, right, Like the Niners red zone has
been terrible. Yeah, they have not been able to unlock
any sort of any good results. And Christian McCaffrey's a huge, huge,

(38:07):
huge reason why it is a different player by the
goal line, and so that's why the number has moved
up in that sort of amongst the league's worst red
zone offense regress against a middling red zone d for
the box, some of which we saw last night. Their

(38:28):
inability to stop teams down by the goal line.

Speaker 2 (38:33):
Yeah, there's still a couple of five and a halfs
out there as forty nine Ers team. So I would
say this is probably pretty split between professionals because I
honestly wanted to be on the Bucks at first, but
like you said, the McCaffrey thing, it's gonna scare me
off of it. I just I can't get over how
well coach that Bucks team is not even defensively offense
too well. Like there was a couple of plays the
Chiefs ran the Bucks defense knew the exact plays that

(38:55):
were about to be run, like they had really done
such a great, great you know, preparing for that game
and know the Vita Vey factor it Tinstry McCaffrey choose
to come back for this game. So yeah, and with
you Chet, if this is five and a half in
our contest, I could be swaded to be one of
our favorites we put in right, Like McCaffrey is just
such a game changer, especially for this team's identity and

(39:16):
everything they do. I mean we joked about it. Jordan
Mason was great for his little role in what he
was doing, but the season beat him up and cheat
him out pretty quick. You know why, because he's not
a freak. He's not a one on one like McCaffrey.
Like McCaffrey is just such a game changer. So I
think automatia, we're going to see a giant boost for
this team with him coming back and at six and
a half, though, Chat, I don't know if i'd want

(39:37):
to play in the contest with five and a half,
I could definitely be talked into it.

Speaker 1 (39:41):
Yeah, I don't think it's to me. I'm actually not
even thinking about the contest. Right now, I'm thinking, how
do I like the number at six? And would I
make it an exact decision for myself at six over
a game like the Broncos or a game like the Saints.
That's that's sort of my dividing line here, feels like

(40:02):
the line of demarcation. Yes, and I'm not quite ready
to commit to the Niners at six. If I can
get the five and a half, I would do that.
We've been talking about this all year, like that delta
of a half point of the hook means so much
this year because the spreads are so much smaller. Haven't
just haven't had a lot of big numbers. So that's

(40:23):
that's where my hesitation is right now, waiting for a move,
waiting for a move. Tough brother, So this stuff ain't easy.
Tennessee at Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers are minus seven and
a half. I dug deep here, brother, like I wanted
to back Tennessee so badly. Still, no Will Levis news

(40:48):
hasn't been confirmed if he's coming back. I actually want
to bet the Titans more with Mason Rudolph. This defense
for the Titans. This is when, like media analysis becomes
so facile. Because they will refer to Tennessee's defense is amazing,

(41:12):
top five defense, giving up some of the fewest yards
per game two opponents. It's such a superficial stat because
if you look at every other stat on a yards
on a per play basis, the Titans defense is mediocre
at best, like just not very good, and there's always

(41:32):
sort of randomness and how you can give up a
lot of points or a lot of yards and things
like that. So then I decided I just got a
pass because, like I feel like it's a little bit
of inflation on the Chargers because people realize they beat
a Cleveland team. Everybody wanted to bet. So for me,
it's a pass.

Speaker 2 (41:51):
Yeah, I find out. I came around though, I remember
you liked Tennessee, I think Sunday night, and I really
wasn't pull in because it's just like the Chargers seemed
like they beat up on bad teams. But at seven
and a half, I'll throw a penny on it. Bum
with you. It's like, I don't know if I want
to want to make this one rather sweat out Flacco
than sweating out Mason Rudolph And then this.

Speaker 1 (42:09):
Number, yes, by the way, agree, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (42:13):
So I am Benic because you're right, it's such a
huge number for this Chargers team. But like we said,
they've been covering like against these bad teams, So I
like it just basically just because of the number. Nothing
else for me on this one. It's like I don't
like the Titans. You could say their defense has been
al right, where it's like you just said it, have

(42:34):
they been? It seems like they're okay against backup quarterbacks, right.
They played Green Bay with a backup, they played Miami
with a backup.

Speaker 1 (42:41):
Playing the Bears when Caleb Williams still didn't know how
to tie his shoes in the NFL, whereas now it
looks like he can tie one shoe, yeah, in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (42:49):
Right, And like they when they got they gave up
fifty two to the Detroit they get thirty four to Buffalo,
like so they do play good offenses, they do get
rolled a little bit. So I'm with you. I'm happy
on this one.

Speaker 1 (43:00):
For contests, why would we want to talk about Los
Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans when we could talk about
the New York Jets and the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. One
a three game win streak, first place in the NFC West.
They have got they just wont a game running the

(43:21):
ball at home the week before. They're on the road
down two scores in the fourth quarter, Kyler Murray dropping
dimes come back win for the Arizona Cardinals, spoiling Tua's
return from the concussion. Like this team, why wouldn't you

(43:43):
want to back them? The Jets are getting the money
in the tickets right now, and so it's like defade
the sentiment of the cards, like what we have seen
to my own eyes be true? Or are we betting

(44:05):
the Jets here?

Speaker 2 (44:07):
Yeah, it's a tough one for me because I'm just
I'm clearly off on making a number against this Jets team.
Like I Houston is a one point favorite last week
against the Jets. Professional smart money hammered the Jets on
that Thursday night game. They were clear right, they should
have beat them by twenty points if not for all
the nonsets that went on that Jets team. But here
I have at Arizona minus three, they're only minus one.

(44:31):
I don't get it. I'm with you. It's like, is
this not a slam dunk for Arizona? Arizona is really
good at running the ball. We said, that's why I
kind of like them against the Bears. Same goes for
this Jets team. This Jets team is good against the past,
they are so bad against the run, like comparable offenses
can run the ball. So is the book saying the
Jets are more desperate? Chat is are they saying that
Rogers will will his team on extended rusts to win

(44:53):
this game? Because I'm with you, I don't really understand
this number. So I'm happy to sit this one out
for an because I think I'll still if I want
to come on Arizona, I'll still get good value on it.
But I'm scared. I can't lie to each other. I'm
somehow scared now the Jets after they played one good
game last week, because I really want to take Arizona here.

Speaker 1 (45:12):
Well, listen, I am too, and I think we've been
food by the Jets all season long, as has everybody else. Right,
you see them play decently against a Texans team that
has a tremendous pass rush. We're going to get into
the Texans pass rush when we talk about the Lions,
and so what the Texans did in that game was
really about what C J. Strout couldn't do right.

Speaker 2 (45:35):
If you saw that game change when Will Anderson went out, Yeah,
like that's such a huge deal to that defense.

Speaker 1 (45:40):
I think that's exactly what happened. He left the game
and it became a different contest for them. It's really
like the Cardinals are just going to be one of
those teams they're hard to believe in because their defense
is really really bad. And while their defense look good
against the Bears, uh, they have not played well most

(46:02):
of the year and they have not gotten pressure. And
so what can this team do against Aaron Rodgers if
he gets any time and he's got Garrett Wilson ballin
DeVante Adams another week, Like they've got so much talent,

(46:23):
it just makes you want to believe that they can
actually do something. It's so frustrating. It's so frustrating, and
I just looked it up.

Speaker 2 (46:31):
Dnika Ryan said that they won't know anything until closer
to the end of the week on Will Anderson. So
you know, whatever happened with him in that game against
that's huge.

Speaker 1 (46:42):
Against the Lions, that was a big deal.

Speaker 2 (46:44):
And you know Rogers obviously, if he's got time, which
he should have right against and there's anything that doesn't
have any dominant pass rushers we suspect, but they pressured
the hell out of Killa Williams last week.

Speaker 1 (46:56):
Right, Like, I'm taking that with a grain of salt,
because we talked about this before the game. The Bears
offensive line is terrible, like.

Speaker 2 (47:04):
Short with the Jets. That's what I'm trying to get at,
is like, I don't get this line. I think the
books are being very telling making the line what it is.
So it's just what I want to be cautious with
and be careful because I want to be on Arizona.
But it might be another spot to back this Jets
team and I'm just missing it.

Speaker 1 (47:19):
Well, I bet we'll get some sharp calls about that one.
Oh yeah, no doubt about it.

Speaker 2 (47:24):
All. Right.

Speaker 1 (47:25):
Here we go, Philadelphia at Dallas plus seven and a half,
the return of Cooper cut Cooper rush.

Speaker 2 (47:37):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (47:38):
The Eagles cannot close. They seem to be winning in
spite of Nick Sirianni. The Cowboys, no surprise, seem to
be losing because of Mike McCarthy, no running game, a
shallow defense that can't stop anyone is out. But and

(48:05):
this is the news. Micah Parsons likely playing in the game.
And I will tell you right now, maybe I'm putting
too much of a point on it. Dallas Cowboys exact
decision plus seven and a half.

Speaker 2 (48:24):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible honors next
to executive decision. As long as the seven and a half,
I'll agree with it. I'll take the seven and a half.
But my hesitation here is when last time we saw
Cooper Rush, that was on a really good Dallas team,
that was with a good offensive line and a dominant defense.

(48:46):
This this ain't that team. This is the scraps and
ugliness left in that team's wake. This is the team
that's paying for all those past team sins of Jerry
not making moves and not drafting well. And now this
is what we're up with. And I just give so
much respect to Dak. I feel like he was the
only thing holding this team up and that's why I
wanted to back them. And now he's gone for the

(49:08):
next four weeks. Just a season from hell for this team.
So yeah, maybe the kid gives him a bump. I
think you're making this bet on basic on why I'm
making this bet, It's more about the Eagles less about
the Cowboys, that this Eagles team will find a way
to let this Cowboys team stay in it. So this
will be a fun game chat where I'll take the
seven and a half with you, But I'm also gonna
bet the Eagles minus thirteen and a half because I

(49:28):
could easily see them just blow this Cowboys team out,
Like if they actually do put it together, it's not close.
How much better of a team they are right now, Like,
and that's without Aj Brown, I'd still have confidence in it.
But matchup wise, you nailed it. Like this is the
ugly backup quarterback divisional game we after we take. So yeah,

(49:49):
I'm already hating us for taking this, but it's like
we have to. It's seven and a half. That's too
good of a number to pass on this With Cowboys.

Speaker 1 (49:55):
Home dogs a plus seven in the division fifty five
against spread the past twenty years in the NFC East,
that number picks up to fifty eight percent. There's no,
like you said, there's no statistical reason to bet Dallas
in this game. They're they're truly.

Speaker 2 (50:13):
Awful, awful, and they're just injured, Like yeah, they're they're
they're just awful On they have no doubt.

Speaker 1 (50:20):
They don't have a lot of talent right now. The
coaching is not very good, but the Eagles cannot close
out games. Nick Sirianni continues to get in his own way.
We don't know about AJ Brown, and I do think
this team is just a It's a much different team.
You see them perform differently every time AJ Brown is
not playing, and I do think Michael Parsons coming back

(50:42):
is just going to be a huge difference for them.
So you canbine the number. You can bind Micah Parsons,
you can bind the spot the home dog of more
than a te touchdown in the division. This is a
game that people are going to want to pass over,
and they shouldn't because there's some value here.

Speaker 2 (51:03):
Famous last words, Why do you laugh at me? I
just we just been making this bet all season. I
just this game literally pains me. I hate it, but
it's like, you're right, this is the right number to
bet in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (51:15):
Well, look like you're right, and I'm wondering, and I
put in our notes here. We've been one back Dallas,
like are they mirage?

Speaker 2 (51:25):
We by a loon? And we literally have not found
the lowest yet.

Speaker 1 (51:29):
We haven't found the lower Are we seeing something and
expecting something that just isn't there? That's really Yeah, Detroit
at Houston. So look, this line was at four when
we spoke on Sunday night. It's now at three and
a half. Houston is plus three and a half. Shortly
after we spoke, it got up to four and a half,
and then wise guys took a bite back. It actually

(51:51):
got down to three a little bit and bounced up
this morning. So we've been looking to fade this Lion's team,
and we thought it might have been last week going
outdoors for the first time, Jared Goff a little banged up.
Do you want to coming back? Matt Lafleoor brilliant against

(52:12):
the spread, great scheme in all year. And I feel
like the one reason we've been betting this Lions team
is because what they're good at is something that shows
up every week, and that is just being physical on
the offensive line. Right. Their run blocking is superior to

(52:35):
superior to every element of the Texans rush defense. Please
tell me why we don't want to take the Lions
or do we?

Speaker 2 (52:49):
Yeah, I'm glad you said, because it's just they're they're
trying to suck us in there again and take They
want us to take Houston, and I'm not going to
fall for it. I just I can't find the reason
to back Houston other than the number. Like the number,
Very's only reason I would back and was it's so
telling that is this a trap? Are we walking to
a trapper? Is Golf finally going to have a really
bad game? Right? Because he has not had a bad

(53:11):
game since Tampa And we were on that game. We
were on the lines against the Tampa and we both
watched it. They were what one for seven and the
red zone on scoring touchdowns in that game like total fluke.
The fourth downs weren't working. We saw how bad it
could be last week, as much praise as we gave them,
that was what a bad game? Right? And there by
Detroit standard, that was a bad game. They scored only

(53:32):
seventeen points on offense without that pick six. That looks
like a very different game. It's not as stretched out
as it looks. But that's the respect that I want
to give this Detroit team. That shows how they're complete
team that even when the offense wasn't totally on, their
defense was and when they needed him to be so
this feels like two teams that if this was Week one,

(53:54):
all over Houston in this line. But with all Houston's
injuries and the way Detroit's playing, what is this number?
Bizarre bizarre number? Like to me, this was like, okay,
this will be six and me and Chad will bet
six on Houston. That's when there'd be value. Now it's
down to I saw three at a couple of books. Chad,
I don't know. Yeah, yeah, Like I hammered Detroit when

(54:15):
it popped on three. I was hoping it would get
it'd be today for the three because that was my
Simon says, pick it's back up a three and a half,
and it's like, what am I missing this another game? Right?
Maybe I'm missing something around this number, and I'm I'm
too high now on this Detroit team. But Houston's wide
receivers are banged up and their best d end is

(54:36):
banked up. He's day to day. They're not even sure
if he's gonna play this week. So yes, I am
taking the minus three and a half and I'll take
the three. I think this is a total headfake by
the professionals and they're just moving the number to get
a better number on the Sit Troy team.

Speaker 1 (54:49):
That's interesting. All right, Well, look, I think that if
you look at it from a matchup point of view,
the Texans pass rush is top three in the league
this year YE sack rate, QB pressures pressure rate, and
the Lions offensive line is a passing block as a
pass blocking team is truly excellent. It's more like top ten,

(55:10):
not top three, So there is a slight edge if
Will Anderson is playing. Here's the other thing that maybe
gives me a little bit of pause. Can the Lions
defense stop Joe Mixon? If we know that CJ. Stroud
has struggled this year, and he struggled against pressure which

(55:36):
the Lions might be able to bring, he just hasn't
been as good as obviously missing Nico Collins and now
Stefan Diggs just hasn't been sort of the same clutch guy.
The Lion's defense doesn't give up a lot of rushing
yards per game, but to me, it's similar to the Titans.
It's like a red herring. They give up a lot
of individual rushing plays. Their yards per attempt is really high.

(55:58):
There expected points allowed is really high. Their yards over
expectations an individual rushing plays is really high. That's kind
of what worries me is if you look at the
Texans knowing they can run the ball and having to
run the ball, will the lines be effective in stopping that?

Speaker 2 (56:18):
Yeah, Houston's a really good team. They're obviously the best
team in their division for a reason. And all their
games this season have always been close. Even last week,
I mean, they somehow covered all If you bet the teasers,
they covered for you, Houston, Like they found a way
to keep it down back to a one score game.
They've been incredible this season at doing that. So that's
a hesitation, right, Like this Houston team knows how to

(56:39):
pull teams down in the mudd and keep it scrappy
and keep it a one possession game. And you know
we back them against Buffalo, they got to cover for
us in a last second field goal. We bet them
against green Bay, same thing, right. Green Bay won on
a last second field goal. Would me and you sitting
here Sunday night be shocked Detroit wins on a last
second field goal and we don't cover this number? Wow,

(57:00):
Because that's that's what the books, that's what they're doing.
You're hanging this number. That's what they're saying is going
to happen. They're like, Okay, come in, come in, have
you on Detroit here They're gonna lose by a field
goal and we're finally gonna get all this money back.
We've been losing Detroit because I still can't believe they
covered last week. That really was the week. But this
this team is they're a model breaker. So yeah, that's
that's my hesitation here is just this Houston team has

(57:22):
been great at keeping games close even when they're overmatched the.

Speaker 1 (57:25):
Season, all right, So we'll continue to keep an eye
on that one. Miami the Los Angeles Rams. You like
the Rams a lot on Sunday night. It is not
yet in public. It is not yet. It has not
moved in their direction as we expected, though, it's sort
of just sitting there. I think the wise guys are
coming in Miami. Yeah, I bet, I bet we'll get
a lot of sharp calls about this one. Are you reconsidering.

Speaker 2 (57:48):
I am just I won't make it as slam dunk
play as I thought it was going to be, just
because if you go back and watch a lot of
this Rams teams games this year, that that whole deep
ball then open up the middle of the field. They
have struggled at like stopping teams going downfield on them,
And obviously we saw last week Miami just run the

(58:10):
ball down the Bill's throat, and I think that's a
lot of people think about their offense. But I'm still
viewing them as a Tyreek Hill waddle downfield, pushing the
ball downfield, and could they do it against the Rams.
I guess maybe that's what the professionals are thinking here,
But I just think Miami's a bad team, Like they're
just they just seem like such a bad team to me.
That Yeah, Tua earned that cover last week. He drove

(58:32):
that field and got that last second touchdown, but that's
like a coin flip kind of game for them to
even be covering. Like they got very lucky with a
couple of calls there. And I think the value was
still there on this Rams team. I said it last week.
I didn't think the books have given them enough credit.
That numbers should have been minus two, minus three and
a half or minus three, I should say on the
Rams last week got a little lucky, Like we joked about,

(58:54):
that was a bad Stafford game. Are you really going
to bet on Stafford having another bad game against other
bad defense. Miami's a bad defense, So yeah, a game
era I was gonna be really heavy on, I'm gonna
be a little more patient because I have talked to
professionals that like the other side on Miami, but I'm
not seeing I just think this Miami team, I don't

(59:14):
care how desperate they are. They're such a bad team,
like just across the board. So yeah, if it's under
a field goal chat, I'll still take the Rams. Here.

Speaker 1 (59:23):
We got a really interesting list that we'll get to
break down even more deeply on Thursday. I'm sure the
wise guys will have a good conversation about what our
thoughts are on these games, Like Steelers plus three, as
Simon says, Cowboys seven and a half is exec decision.
We're still looking at Denver, We're still looking at New Orleans,

(59:44):
We're still looking at San Francisco, looking at the Colts
that would have been the Simon says, if not for
the Steelers, maybe I talked you into it, But geez,
Louise ty Lion's team. Man, They're tough to figure out, really,
because also it's not even like now they're going to

(01:00:05):
be playing indoors on the kind of field they like
to play on, and aman Rosse Brown has caught thirty
straight targets.

Speaker 2 (01:00:16):
And again coming off a bad offensive game like they
only scored seventeen points. Like, it's just it feels like
a nice spot for them to bounce back. So there's
just there must be something I'm not reading right with
this line.

Speaker 1 (01:00:27):
Well, I'm sure we'll find out by Thursday. As a reminder,
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