November 17, 2024 • 44 mins
After another instant classic between the Chiefs and Bills in Buffalo, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter settle down to discuss all things betting for NFL Week 11. Together they talk about Kansas City's first loss, a dominating victory for the Detroit Lions, a Cleveland clunker and so much more. We get a recap of all their weekly picks, good and bad, as they take accountability before Sunday Night Football kicks off in Los Angeles. Plus, we get their early looks at NFL Week 12.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Action Network and
live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
We will review the five picks we put into the
Favorites contest, discuss why we left some out, preview the
(00:31):
early lines we already like for Week twelve. I'm joined
as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter Ellosa.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
I'm in, Hello, Chad. Hey, I want to say sorry
about your Bears, but at least we had a winning week.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I have such little expectations when it comes to the
Bears that the fact they played great for the Bears
and still lost the way they did is entirely on
par and the fact that Matt Ibraflus considered himself to
be a coaching genius who decides, yeah, I've got a
time out, I've got thirty seconds left in the game.
(01:15):
I can do something like maybe center the ball or
even hand the ball off and gain five extra yards
so my kick can have a little bit more loft,
so it's not a line drive as a longer kick
from a guy who does not have the biggest leg
in the world. But whatever Matt Ebraflus does, Matt Ebraflus,
it's why he won't be the coach of the Bears,
(01:35):
why he shouldn't been in the coach of the Bears
this season. The good news for us, we did have
an early day or a winning day, and thanks to
the early games, I feel like this was the most
stress free contest Sunday we have had all season. We're
three and two. Only one of those games was a
blowout that was the Lions. Even the games that were
(01:56):
in question, though in the early minutes, until in the
early games, until the final minutes, felt like we had
an edge. I'd argue that even the last game of
the day, which was the Chiefs and the Bills, we
felt like we had an edge because who would you
rather have have the ball that Patrick mahomes in the
(02:17):
final sixty seconds of a game. We'll get to all
of that. Catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube.
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(02:39):
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(03:01):
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Speaker 2 (03:16):
All right.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Our only loss from the early slate was the Cleveland Browns.
You tried to walk me off it. I said, we
have to do it. It'll be good for the show. You
know what. The problem with the good for the show
logic is, which we have done often in our time together, Simon.
It's terrible for the record. Terrible for the record. The
(03:43):
Browns had more plays we had the Browns plus half
a point. They ended up his favorites close to two
more plays, more passing yards, more first downs. They also
had only three point three yards per carry, were sacked
three times, when three or thirteen on third downs. This
was supposed to be the game where they and the
ball down the Saints' throats and their defense was amazing,
and none of that happened.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, you got Taysom Hill. I mean Taysom Hill. I
think I had like one hundred and thirty yards rushing,
three touchdowns. It's just one of those games. I never
trusted it, but you loved it. The number agreed with you,
I mean professionals bet at with you. And then it
felt like everybody was giving it out and it's like,
oh man, is anyone taking the Saints here? It was
(04:27):
just all Cleveland. So yeah, that was that was a miss.
But it's it's just it's a tough year. Like there's
other games like I wish you would have loved more,
but you know I got while you were comping this game,
it's like, let's fade this Saints team after emotional win,
and you know, they looked ready, they looked prepared for
(04:48):
this game. You can't stay the same for Cleveland. Cleveland
just looked really dysfunctional that whole game. And yeah, they
got out played by the Saints, so yeah tough. I mean,
like you just said, though, they got blown out. So
it was like I had that one on the TV screen.
I just switched it off after a little while because
it's like, this is not We're not coming back. We're
down fourteen. At one point, I was like, we're not
getting back from this. This is not not where you
(05:09):
want Jameis Winston to be leading you back. Even though
he actually didn't play that bad. I will say like
he had a pretty incredible throw in the corner of
the end zone. But Jamis the defense just no showed
absolutely no show by the defense of Cleveland. So they're
what two and eight, Now, that's a team that's totally
done with the season.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Yeah, I mean our biggest fear in this game was
Jamis actually didn't make any mistakes. The problem was their
defense didn't get any pressure. Like the premise for this
game was their defense would get pressure. Yeah, her defense
would cause Derek Carr to make the mistakes that he
always makes when he's under pressure. Because he had been
so good last week, we thought they were overvalued this
(05:48):
week by starting as a favorite. Derek Carr ended up
twenty one to twenty seven. Meanwhile, the Browns did not
stop the run. The Saints gained two hundred and ten
yards on the ground average seven yards per carry. Like pathetic,
pathetic display off of a bye against a team that
(06:12):
has no proven players on the edge offensively, But none
of that is as pathetic as Dustin Hopkins. Did you
see any of that?
Speaker 2 (06:26):
I did now. I saw the game on when he
was missing all those field goals.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Dustin Hopkins missed multiple field goals in the first half,
including a thirty two yarder that was waved off because
of a New Orleans penalty. They gave the Browns a
first down on the restarted series. I'm in my head,
I'm like, fuck, Jamies is gonna throw like a pick,
(06:50):
so there's gonna be no chance to even kick a
shorter field goal. So of course he almost throws a
pick in the red zone. The Browns end up having
to try another field goal. Well, this time Dustin Hopkins
missus from twenty seven all around. It was. It was
now almost from the get go. They went for two
when they were down seven to six, and they scored
(07:11):
like just all around a bad game for the Browns.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Yeah, they're they're just a really bad team, bad team.
We tried getting cue of it. I thought we were smart,
should just listen to our instincts, where we knew that
at plus three it was okay to take it. It was
a good number. Once it had moved as much as
it did, we should have known just stay away, And
unfortunately we did not, even though like it was a
game that we had locked in that you know, if
(07:37):
we had updated our picks this morning, maybe would it
have taken out because we would have had a bad
number on it. But yeah, unfortunately that was a game
you loved, and I really didn't hate it enough to
take it out, just because what we talked about the
Saints team, it's like they're a bad team as well.
Both these teams are bad. One team is clearly worse
right now, and that's Cleveland.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
Yeah, and also I think we just at the end
of the day, I would have been okay taking it out.
We thought we had the best of the number, and
while it hasn't mattered. It's still a bad habit to
bet against it. So we left it. There were two
games I think we could have put in there. I've
got those marked for after we get through our five.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh. We had Pittsburgh three and a half.
(08:17):
Congrats on us for not overthinking. Congrats on us for
pulling the trigger on the most obvious bet on the board.
Going back to last Sunday night, all the Tomlin trends
as a dog, all the Tomlin trends as a dog
at home, all the trends of Harbaugh is a favorite,
Lamar is a favorite. The trends for the underdogs in
this series, all of them went the way they have
(08:39):
been going for the past twenty years. Hooray.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Yeah, my best bad days. Like you just said, it's
the easy ones that are hard to you know, take.
Like I was with you earlier in the week, I
was like, is there something I'm missing because I didn't
get why it was still three and a half. Even today,
there was a bunch of books here in Jersey that
were still three and a half, and it just never
made sense. It's like, why aren't there professionals hammering this number.
Why is this not three or two and a half
(09:06):
by kickoff? So that was the only thing that kind
of scared me because it felt like you just said,
way too easy. We know this matchup, we know Lamar
struggles against Pittsburgh whatever that weird voodoo is, and little
do we know it's their kicker that it cost it
for him. I mean, the Ravens, I don't know what
they're gonna do. Justin Tucker, I mean, we've all been
(09:27):
thinking it that he's cooked. It's tough to deny it.
Like this guy can't hit him over fifty. Now he's
missing the ones under fifty, which he just never did.
It's tough when you're a kicker, you hit that wall
and all of a sudden, it's just different. And he
is a liability of this team right now. And we
got lucky for once with a kicker because, like you
just talked, with the kickers missing, at one point, we
(09:48):
had the Cleveland kicker miss and then they cut to
the Rams kicker missing, and then it cut to this
game with him missing. Justin Tucker, I'm like, okay, at
least we got one out of the three games here
going our way. But yeah, for once, Pittsburgh's kicker made
all his kicks for us, and we like we joke
that game is the easiest bet we make all year.
That matchup. It's you take whoever the dog is and
(10:10):
you bet the under, and both things were no sweats today.
The plus three and a half was never in doubt,
the under was never in doubt. So I wish they
could all be that easy. Sometimes the trends are just
that good chat you just can't overthink and just have
to bet these smart trends.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
Well, the Steelers did make us a little bit anxious,
I will say, because they could not score touchdowns and
against Lamar Jackson, against the Ravens, as good as the
Steelers defense is, and it was it was lights out today.
If you're not scoring touchdowns and you're getting the red
zone and you're only kicking field goals, you do leave
(10:46):
yourself open to being vulnerable to losing your bet and
losing that game, right, And there was a period in
the first half it felt like the Ravens could dominate
this game if they were able to get one or
two touchdowns in the first half, like convert one of those,
and they did towards the end of the first half,
(11:07):
but it felt like this whole game in the first
half was played between the forties right and just a
field goal kicking contest, and the Steelers kept getting it.
Did you ever feel nervous about this at all? Because
I felt a little bit anxious about it when we
got into the second half and the Steelers like could
not get into the end zone.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
No, these games are just really stupid. I mean, it's
just that all the turnovers they had as well Pittsburgh
and like you just said, they won the game, and
the Ravens scored two touchdowns, they scored zero touchdowns. Like
it's just that's how these games are. So it's like,
I don't know, I know people hate these teven games.
These are literally my favorite football games to watch. It's
like I love just ugly underdog, low scoring games with
(11:47):
the under and it's just like that's just my favorite
type of football. I know it's sickening for most people.
As a better it's just so much fun to watch
because every point matters so much. So I maybe you're right,
maybe the only part of me that really thought anxious
with the very end win. You know they're going for
two and it's just like Okay, could we lose this,
because then go to overtime and somehow Lamar gets the
(12:08):
six and we do lose. But honestly, the whole game
never really worried about it. I mean, I think we
started the game out the gates of what up six nothing,
The Ravens scored seven to six. Then at half it's
it's nine to seven. It's like, okay, as long as
they keep these this weird type of score, we're going
to cover this three and a half for three, Like
that's that's what we needed, is just a weird number
(12:29):
to land on it.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
At fifteen ten, the Steelers were near the Ravens goal line.
Russell Wilson got pressured. He threw the ball out of
bounds and out of the end zone, and my son,
who was sitting next to me, said, I feel like
he is in this game. I feel like he is
constantly throwing the ball away, and in my I said
out loud, that's what we like about him right now,
(12:51):
as opposed to someone like justin Fields. He's he's not
trying to reach very next play touchdown or interception in
the back of the end zone and what could have
been an eighteen to ten lead turns into a Ravens
with the ball. Unfortunately, like it played out our way
and everything you said, here's the most important thing. Ravens
(13:15):
are now seven and four, Steelers are eight and two.
The Ravens have looked terrible at times offensively, especially against
good teams. So what do we take away from this
about the Ravens right now?
Speaker 2 (13:31):
I mean, nothing's really changed. I thought they Honestly, I thought, okay,
those of I'll figure it out and win this division.
But yeah, Pittsburgh now just being the Commanders and then
turn around and winning this game. It's like, how do
we not give them their flowers and take them more serious?
It's like, yeah, it's their their division now. But the
Ravens I was just already out on like I had
zero futures on them for the super Bowl, just because
(13:53):
we talk I thought last year was the peak, it
was the perfect year. This year there's gonna be too
many holes when you're paying Lamar while you're paying them,
like we're like we even talked to the Chiefs. Yet
you're seeing that with the Chiefs, right, they can't afford
any offensive lineman because they're giving so much money to
Mahomes and a couple other guys. So it's the same
with the Ravens. It's like, yeah, big deal that they
got Derek.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
You know, Henry, he's been a game changer for them,
but they allocated money there and they've gone cheap in
other places, and you've kind of seen it this year.
It's just it's all on the mark. When he's not
on this one hundred percent a game, they're they're they're
a team you can beat, and you're you're right, Like
Russell Wilson, if he was a little better in this game,
the pittsfordh Steers probably would have rolled them like they
were moving the ball up and down the field, and
(14:33):
they just couldn't finish those drives. I will say, I
just remember there's one moment I was freaked out. It
was with Justin Fields. He could have got an easy
first down. He slid early to get the second and
two or second and one. Yeah, get this guy out here.
His field awareness is just zero.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
He slid a yard early.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:55):
So instead of going first down and basically ending the game,
it kept the drive. It allowed the Steelers to call
time or the Ravens called time out. That was ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
A man, I don't care how the other thirty one
to doing it.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
Rams at New England. We bet the Rams four and
a half. We liked them all week, but when we
discussed it this morning, this was the game you were
most worried about.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
Tell me why just for what I bet personally? Because
I told you I didn't really get the movement like
I was. I told you I was up all night
and they were down to three and a half and
I was betting it, but I was just like, what
is happening? Who is hitting this other side so heavy?
And I'm not gonna lie. I really did think we
were gonna get drake me at the end of that game.
It was just like they somehow didn't get that first
(15:42):
down the Rams when they could have done whatever they wanted.
It seems like every player they wanted to make is
easy with Cooper, Cup or Puka, but Stafford's like, now
let me throw it to my third tight end or
some random other guy on the outside. It's like, just
go to your best guys in these tight moments, Stafford,
come on, I don't care if they're covered. But yeah,
they punted up six. I thought, oh my god, I
(16:04):
can't believe this is gonna happen just because I mean,
they dominated that game, the Rams. They were clearly the
better side. But Drake May's got some moxie. That team.
They don't quit. They let him hang around. I think
at one point they were up I don't know if
we were up fourteen or maybe it was fifteen, a
random number. And you know, he comes down and gets
that touchdown and now we're only up six, and it's like, okay,
(16:24):
I thought the number should be six. Hopefully my model
is right and the Land's right on six, because that's
the whole reason we took this number, is like it's
under six. We think we're getting a good number here,
and the public was overacting that Patriots team, and they did.
That's what ended up being the number moved too much.
We got a good number. LANDA ray Ward should have
been Yeah, that's that was a nice cover. That was
a nice game. We talked about predicted hung in there,
(16:46):
kept it in there, and it was a good cover.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
That was a game where it just felt like the
Rams were playing with their food. Yeah, you know like
that they were. They were so much better than the Patriots,
and in the first quarter, like the Patriots were making plays,
they were getting momentum, they were building confidence, and then
from the second quarter through the third quarter, the Rams
(17:11):
basically went on a twenty eight to three run and
they were up twenty eight to ten. The Patriots score
a touchdown at the end of the third twenty eight
seventeen sixteen or something like that. Then they get that
last touchdown. I was definitely thinking we're fucked because they
(17:33):
went back to sort of playing with their food in
the same way we hit the Saints last week at
the exact right spot. I feel like we got the
Rams this week in the exact right spot. So the
challenge will be looking ahead. They've got the Eagles. It's
a primetime game, their dogs at home against the Eagles.
I'm going to be excited to talk about that game
(17:54):
with you when we get to the week twelve lines.
Jacksonville Detroit. This was our Big Balls bet of the week,
first time we've ever done a double digit favorite for
Big Balls Bet of the Week. We had Detroit minus
twelve and a half. As they say in Hollywood, no else.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Hello Detroit.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
No.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
That was the dream. That was a game we loved.
We both bet a bunch on and even if you're
betting a bad number, Like I even bet a couple
thirteen and a halfs and it's like, I should just
wait and maybe it goes back to thirteen. But I
was just I just felt like it was only going
to go up to fourteen by kickoff, but professionals held
that line, like that number really did budge back down
(18:42):
from fourteen to thirteen and a half. And you know,
we obviously had a good number in the contest. I
think we've bad twelve and a half, But wouldn't it mattered,
Like we even joked about, like these ermers really haven't
mattered for us so much in the contest. I mean,
two and a half's havelf, but other numbers, for the
most part, it's not really been landing on those numbers
as much. So that was the game where we were
final leaving it in even at a bad number. Honestly,
(19:04):
even at fourteen and a half, it'd have been like,
I don't know, I'll keep it in just because I
rather have that in than the Colts and end up
being the Colts being a great bet. So yeah, that
was a great bet. What was it twenty eight to
three to start the game. That's what you need when
you bet these huge favorites, It's like you just need
a roll to completely take the other team's will. And
(19:25):
that's what happened. I mean, the Jaguars quit instantly like
I think they had. They started the game with three
straight rushing touchdowns, and you know, it just looked like
the Jaguars were playing in mud. And this Detroit team
is just not like they're just incredibly talented. I saw
a lot of books move them to be the odds
on favorite right now for the Super Bowl. Makes sense,
(19:45):
like if they get home field and they're running like this,
you don't need Aiden Hutchinson if you're putting up you know,
thirty five forty points on any giving team, any given night.
So yeah, we know the deal. When this Detroit team
plays bad team Chad, we can't overreact and get word,
I've been these big numbers we just got taken. I
think now Evan could correct me if I'm wrong. I
believe double did your favorites now five and zero against
(20:06):
the spread this season.
Speaker 1 (20:07):
So I looked at this game and to me, it
was the get Jared Goff the MVP game. Like Dan
Campbell saw what happened last week with it, you know,
when they when they came back and with the five
picks this week, four hundred and twelve yards. I think
(20:28):
he was twenty four of twenty nine four touchdowns. They
kept the pedal to the medal the entire time. It's
almost like somebody was in Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell's
ear telling them, Okay Lamar is now completing fewer than
fifty percent of his passes. Of course, this was all
before the Bills played the Chiefs, which we'll get to
(20:53):
because that was our final game of the day. So
we went into the last game three and one on
the day, Patrick Mahomes as a dog and dude, twelve
minutes left, they're down twenty three fourteen. I say to myself,
the Bills are dominating this game, like time the possession
(21:16):
the Chiefs. Really they had two good drives, but the
Bills were playing better than the Chiefs were. And I
thought to myself, this is why we bet on Patrick Mahomes,
because in this moment, that's who you want to have
the ball. And I believe that right until the last
(21:39):
play of the game. Didn't work out for us, but
I never regretted betting on Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
The Bills.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Make me want something, throw your hands something, throw your
hand back to come.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Now the Bills. I'm making it happen now. Yeah, it
was a great run. It hurts, but you know I
make that bet every time, and we saw how it
could have worked out for us. It's pretty simple. It
was fourth and two. Josh Allen's up two. If he
gets stuff there, who knows, right, the Mahomes either drives
the field scores or he gets stuffed and that game's over.
We cover the two and a half. I hit my
(22:15):
under bet. It would have been really nice. Josh Allen
had a big moment right MVP moment he stepped up
the Chiefs for some reason didn't run a QB spine on,
which was just to me bizarre because it's like Matt
Mitchell said it. It just felt like it was a momentere
Josh Allen's like, this is going to be in my hands,
Like I'm not gonna let someone take this moment from me.
I think he is now four and one. Maybe I
could be wrong. Four and one straight up against Mahomes
(22:38):
in the regular season, which is pretty insane. Yeah, but yeah,
pretty big time play by Josh Allen and Yeah, that
was a really fun playoff game that came down to
two or three plays that didn't go our way. And yeah,
the worst part of it's the teasers didn't cover either
for Mahomes, which head into that spot. I think Evan
(22:59):
said he was fourteen to zero as an underdog on teasers.
Pretty brutal. That didn't cover. So yeah, I was hoping
we'd get the back door Chad get a big scramble
I think for thirty yards. They caught it back on
a hold, made it fourth and thirteen again, and it's like, Okay,
we're dead. We're not getting this back doors. So yeah,
tough loss, but yeah, just another day betting these trends.
(23:20):
It's tough when they don't work out for you.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
MVP adds just before the afternoon games, after the Jared Goff.
After Jared Goff threw for four hundred yards, he had
been twenty to one during the week. He had dropped
because of the five pick game before the Chiefs and
Bill's played. It was Lamar plus one thirty, it was
(23:45):
Josh Allen plus two fifty and Jared Goff plus six hundred,
so he jumped quite a bit. In the MVP tallies.
We're waiting on updated MVP adds. Post this Josh Allen game,
I amadine, and he'll now be the odds on favorite
to win the MVP, given that he just beat Patrick
(24:06):
Mahomes did it in spectacular fashion. Alert here for.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
Josh Allen looking for hell.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
He's alon.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
No, he's a flier.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
He's a football player through and through him here, but
there's nothing there.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
He goes, shan't try an excuse me touchdown?
Speaker 2 (24:28):
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
there's no fears, no way. He was being.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
Pizza.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
He's still going, Oh my god. The demands to do
something about this album reachous man making louder and louder.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
He was Mahomesyan. He made the play that he had
to make. He hit the guys that he had to hit,
converted hard third downs, scored the game winning touchdown, you know,
converted the fourth down. Kudos Josh Allen, Kudos Buffalo Bills.
Matt Mitchell maybe buying ice cream for his entire neighborhood
tonight because he's so excited. At the very least he
(25:19):
gets to eat wings with gloves because all of his
fears are over now.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
No chad buying ice cream for everyone in my neighborhood
is reserved for big playoff victories, regular season wins like this.
I celebrate the old fashioned way as a Bills fan,
which is breaking all the side mirrors off the cars
in my neighborhood.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Go Bills.
Speaker 1 (25:42):
All right, here's the regrets. I don't think we seriously
discussed the Colts enough. We had the Colts in the
underdog round robin along with Atlanta, Kansas City, and Tennessee.
None of them won, but the Colts and the Steelers did.
We never had a combo about them, and I felt
like we actually liked them more after Anthony Richardson was
(26:03):
named the starter. Why didn't? Why do we miss that one?
Speaker 2 (26:06):
I mean I loved him, It just it wasn't on
your radar. I only have so many winners in me
that should have been you that instead of Cleveland, you
should have the Colts. I got nothing to do.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
I love the Colts all week.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
I was never really on them. I bet them because
I liked the number, but it was like I was
never in love with it. You liked them more than me.
So I wish I could stay and be like I
knew the Colts was gonna be a great but I
honestly it wasn't on my radar. I just I didn't
know what Anthony Richards was going to react. He obtually
came out had an incredible game. I think at one
point he was like seven and nine passing like totally.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
Yeah. He ended a game like twenty thirty for two
seventy five or something like that. Yeah, and he converted
some fantastic third downs like that was a really grown
up football game for him.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Yeah. So again it was it was a good bet.
I wish we had made it, but yeah, I was
never it was never one of my bigger bets this week.
I never would have been in one of Like I
was never going to force in. So yeah, it sucks
where you definitely liked it, but it was never one
year like, oh, we have to get this one and
we never really talked about it. Now.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
Broncos was the other one. I felt like we had
done a full one to eighty on that one, and
we were all over Atlanta early in the week and
by the end of the week we really liked Denver.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Yeah. Chris Raybun helps though with that. Yeah, although like
when he starts bringing down all those stats, We're like, shit,
you're right. Like this Atlanta team, their offense still struggle
against good defense and Denver we've both talked about Denver
is a good defense. But bow Knicks man like that,
that was really a bon Knicks game. We talked about
it like I bet him Rookie of the Year just
(27:34):
because it's like, yeah, it feels like a two man
race between him and Jane Daniels. That might have been
his best game of the season. I mean, he played
incredible in that matchup. So yeah, the bow Knick stock
keeps going up every week.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
It really does. And look, Jade Daniels is struggling.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Yeah, I think Jane Daniels is injured. That's why.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
Yeah. I mean he struggled against the Eagles obviously, and
they got to him quite a bit. On Thursday night.
I was at that game. Let me just say this.
I know it's sacriligious to say these things, but after
a week of going to Knicks, Bulls at MSG, Bulls
win with three free throws with three seconds left, and
(28:12):
then Jalen Brunson has a shot go in and out.
Then I go the next night with my kid to
Eagles commanders at the link and Saquon goes off in
the second half. It's great. Eagles dominate. First half was
so freaking boring, and these games take so long, and
it's like every five seconds there's a minute to two
(28:33):
minute break. And then we went. We visited the University
of Maryland, which was amazing, great campus, really impressive school.
Went to the Maryland Marquette game and that game came
down to the final seconds. Maryland was down two with
fifteen seconds left left. A kid was on the line
to shoot two for Maryland missed them. Both game ends.
(28:54):
But like the in stadium, in game live experience for
basketball is just so much better in the NFL. It
just is.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Yeah, it all depends. I mean, you have a different
way watching football. It all depends the type of year
you are. I think you just like action, you like points,
which is nothing wrong with. Go watch NBA or go
watch NHL. That's for you. For someone like me, I
like that game. I know people didn't love if I loved.
That was an NFC East Classic. It was ugly. Every
catch mattered. I mean, guys were dropping the ball all
(29:24):
over the field because it's just so intense everyone's so tight.
I love that because you can feel it in the stadium.
So I get what you're saying. It's just a different
type of thing where it's like, yeah, do we both
want to see a fifty to forty five game? Sure,
I would have loved that and if the NFL game
was going crazy, but instead we got a what twenty
to twelve type of game? And that's just that's just
how it is sometimes.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
First of all, don't fucking insult me with I want points.
I grew up in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
You sound like a TikToker, dude. You sound like a
little little gen zer right now.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
Going to Bears games when it's four below and rooting
for the game to be three nothing Bears, because all
I want to do is sorry, you're soft.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Now, that was a lot.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
I'm definitely soft. I definitely thought after the game, I
don't really need to go to a game if it's
less than forty degrees. Number one, number two, it's it's
not the intensity, it's the interruptions and the commercial breaks
and the amount of time that is spent just sitting
there waiting for the next thing to happen. It could
(30:24):
be attention deficit. It could totally be about intention span,
but I'm just saying, as a product, the experience for
basketball was much better in game than the experience for football.
So I'm saying, thank god, we don't have to put
the Steelers in the Browns in the contest this week.
Looking ahead to Week twelve, the lines that we are
looking at Rounds are four point dogs at home. I
(30:47):
hate that I feel this way, you know, but I'm
glad we're not gonna have to put it in the contest.
I don't know if you have an early lean on
that game.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Yeah, we're supposed to about the Browns. You're right. I
don't want to do anything with that game. I want
to early lean Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Yep, there is a game. However, a team had to
buy this week. A team looked pretty good two weeks ago.
Last week, Carolina Panthers were eleven and a half point
underdogs against Kansa Cy Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Are you doing it?
Speaker 1 (31:22):
I'm not saying we're doing it like I think it
merits attention. I'm not going to bet it right now,
but I do think it merits some attention to think about, especially,
you know. Now.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
I agree that we're supposed to bet that we always
say we like to fade mahomes. But yeah, I wonder
if the our listeners will let us bet it. But
that's definitely a game that jumped out to me that
I want to bet. We just talked about it. Favorites
right now, double digits or five? And oh, I know
you you always talk about teams things being overdue. Isn't
a big dog overdue to win this year or cover
(31:59):
at least a big double digit spread? So yeah, that
numbers two big. I'll take it early here with you.
But I don't know if listeners will let us put
that one in. But I'm with you. I definitely love that.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
I can't see that one making it into the contest.
There are loads of home dogs this week. I'm gonna
read a list of the home dogs. There are seven.
I want you to tell me which ones you pinpointed it,
because I got a couple I want to see if
we match. The Bears are five point dogs at home
against Minnesota. These are all home dogs that I'm reading
off Indy seven points against Detroit Giants, three against Tampa Vegas,
(32:36):
three against Denver Green Bay, one against San Francisco Rams,
two and a half at versus Philly Chargers plus three
versus Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah, I mean jumped that right away. I wanted to
grab the Lions at minus seven. That's already up to
minus eight. Unfortunately. I just I felt like a little
too low to me for that cold steam, but not
that it's up to eight. It's like, I don't need
to rush and take that one. If you're still able
to get seven to seven and a half, I throw
(33:09):
a little bit on that, just because it seems like
it's gonna keep going up on this cold steam. Patriots?
Are we a suckers? Are we a sucker for trying
to take the patris a plus seven and a half?
That feels like it's a lot of points for that matchup.
Speaker 1 (33:21):
I forgot who they're playing.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
Hold on, they're playing Miami.
Speaker 1 (33:24):
Oh yeah, I was really focused on home dogs.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Yeah, I know they're on the road. I'm just taking
that one right now. They're just another big, big dog
that popped out to me. That just feels like that
number will come down just because you know, I know Miami.
They won what thirty one nineteen today, But.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
That was a a scoreboard win, not a box score win.
Like that game was much closer I agree about the
game than it should have been.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
And I think we both agree this. This Raiders team
is totally terrible, so terrible. What do we do with
that line? You see their line against Denver, it's minus four.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
I mean you have to take the Raiders like right,
just and that to me was.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
One of the fish That line's really fishy. Giants are
plus three and a half at home against Tampa.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
So that's interesting, Like some of these lines have moved.
You know, obviously these were the lines before we get
on the shodow and it's been thirty minutes that we
since we started recording. So now you're saying Raiders are
up to four. They opened at three, Giants are up
to three and a half. They opened at three. Like,
I'm gonna want to be on the Giants. I'm gonna
(34:33):
want to be on the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
I know. It's just again we need to like pull
it back because the like this, Like today, we took
a lot of lines I normally wouldn't honestly take, like
we we joked about the Chiefs were a really public dog,
the Pittsburgh was a really public dog. And Detroit I
think it was like ninety five percent of the bets
and the tickets in the action app were on Detroit.
But we're just leaning into this year like this year
(34:58):
thates not matter. The public's just been winning. So normally
I'd honestly be with you and just hammering these giants
and radio lines. But the public has been so good
it's like, I'm not Russian. I am not rushing to
bet these ways unless you're been in the favorites. Then
we just talked about you should rush because Denver just
went Chatty said, went from three up to four. So
that's early professional money coming in on them, a team
(35:19):
I wanted to feade no matter what because of what
happened today where the Seahawks. The Seahawks pulled up a
last second win. We can get Arizona right now plus
one plus two as a yes, yes, I'm so that's
an I'm scrabbing now in case it's the same thing
as like Cleveland. Don't know if we'll bet it as
a week goes along, because it might flip. But I
could easily see this number flipping as we sit here
(35:41):
Sunday night, where you out with the Bears because they're
three and a half against this Vikings team.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
Well it's come down. It opened at five. Wow, So
that tells me that professionals are coming in on the Bears.
And I, like, I got a lot of questions about
this Minnesota team. I just don't think Sam Darnold is
very good as a quarterback unless he's throwing to the
middle of the field. And they let Tennessee stay in
(36:09):
this game. So will Brian Flores be able to do
to Caleb Williams what he does to every rookie quarterback?
It's possible. Will the Bears have a come down moment
because they had their best game in the week where
they could run some new schemes with a new offensive coordinator,
and now there's a little bit more film on that.
(36:31):
Will they be emboldened like the Broncos were to come
out and just dominate after a really tough loss which
they should have won. Like, I don't know about that yet.
So for me, if it's already moved to three and
a half, we'll just fucking wait and see.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
Those are the professionals who were like literally talking during
that Bears again they were gonna bet the Bears no
matter what this opening week because they just think that
Kleb looks way freer. I guess then he's had looked
in weeks and I would totally agree, do you Because
again I didn't watch enough of that game. My idea
was it just seemed like by free, do you mean
he's just scrambling more and running with the.
Speaker 1 (37:11):
Bowls ran a lot more, But also he was It
felt like they were they were throwing more vertical passes
like downfield, like the routes he was running were the
receivers were running were just more vertical. They weren't throwing
as many crossing routes, and the players made better plays.
(37:32):
There were also a lot more screens, Like it was
out of his hands in about two seconds flat versus
being closer to three seconds. So who knows, maybe the
protection was a little bit better, but clearly they did
something that gave him the confidence, that gave him the
confidence to play as aggressively as he did all game.
I think a lot of it had to do with
getting the ball out of his hands fast.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
All right, I'll throw a couple of thousand on them,
because I could see professionals betting this down the three
So because I was with for the one o'clock games
and they were just a bunch of them were just like,
this is gonna be a bit, This will be a
good change for this Bears team. Like they seem like
they had a rhythm to them. And I honestly wasn't
watching the game enough to have an opinion on it,
but I trust their opinion. You're saying, you're kind of
seeing the same stuff. It's like, Okay, I already was
(38:16):
looking for a reason to fade this Viking team because
I'm with you. It's like their defense has just been
carrying them this season. Their defense is so good with
their offense. Sam Darnold's just been so inconsistently these last
couple of weeks. And you know, now he's got another
game on the road outdoors against a divisional opponent. You
expect this to be a tough matchup for him. So yeah,
(38:37):
that makes sense. Sucks. It feels like we missed the
best of it, right, But yeah, I still think three
and a half might be the best of it because
I could see this keep going down if professionals or
keep hitting this number.
Speaker 1 (38:47):
Where are you at on rams plus two and a
half versus the Eagles? Versus the Eagles?
Speaker 2 (38:55):
My view would is be patient if you like the Rams,
which I kind of do. But I took the Eagles
here right away at two and a half because there's
a couple of books at it to two and a half.
I just took that early just because I assume this
will go up to three three and a half by kickoff.
This is the Sunday night game, so uh, this this
makes sense right the I would say this is a
(39:21):
great test for this Eagle scheme because we've all heard
the hype right now with these rookie cornerbacks and everyone's
talking about how the difference they're making, and this will
be the ultimate test Cooper Cup Puoka, you know, to
the best in the game going against young corners. You
just think that'd be advantage to this Rams team. And
we know that this Eagles team is different on the road.
You know, Jalen Hurts is just better simply at home.
(39:43):
But it's a big deal. They're on extended rest and
this is a Sunday night game, so it's like coming
off of mini bye week against the Rams team that's
coming off the road. You know, this is not it's
not sure rest, but it kind of is right because
they're not getting hume till tonight. Yeah, that's that's definitely
a big deal. So I would say, if you want
to grab the early number and you like the Rams,
(40:03):
I would just wait. If you like the Eagles, I'd
grab it now because I could easily see this just
going up to three three and a half by Sunday night.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
Boy to Eagles fans, love Cooper dejan Man.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
Yeah, did you see his a T shirt? He award
you're a big wine guy. I forget now. So you know,
like if you go shopping for wines, they'll be like
the labels to say, exciting whites. Okay, So him in
this human blanker ship wore these shirts. This had exciting
whites on it, and they've got it from this guy
at the Different Mall, which if you know the local area,
(40:37):
it's like, you know, different malls are like I love
Different Mall. It's our trashing mall. Like just the good
people of South Jersey send him and this other guy
this exciting white shirt. So just it's just hilarious. So
just we have a white safety and white cornerback who
are sick. It's it's so random, so funny.
Speaker 1 (40:54):
All right, what else am I missing? You mentioned Arizona?
There is a one and a half out there by
the way.
Speaker 2 (41:01):
Yeah, yeah, I saw too. So the twos are going
down to one and a half.
Speaker 1 (41:05):
It's worth checking out. What else? What did I miss?
Speaker 2 (41:08):
Just we just talked about this forty nine ers team
obviously is not the same team. Isn't this the time
to buy plus one and a half in Green Bay?
I mean you just watched that Green Bay. Something's wrong
with Jordan Love? Like, can we all agree he's just
not what he was last year? Like I know if
it's all the injuries, but he's reckless with the ball.
(41:29):
Did he have another interception in this game?
Speaker 1 (41:30):
He did a costly one at the goal line.
Speaker 2 (41:34):
Yes, Like he just he keeps making these mistakes and
I don't want to fault him to her because it's
his second year as a starter in this league. It's like,
this is what we expect. Like that last year we
talked about that was lighting in a bottle. You know,
if they would have lost that game, I might have
been more convinced to take them here. How do we
not take this Fortnite team? They have to be one
(41:55):
of the more desperate teams in all football, and now
they're a dog in this spot. This could be a
little bit like the Chiefs last week, where I got
a little bit. Maybe I'm getting a little bit blind
to it just because I love the number here. But
I make this a pick. We're getting plus one and
a half plus two right now in the forty nine ers.
This is just an early bet I'm going to make
right now. It's forty nine ers two. I just love
that number, all right.
Speaker 1 (42:16):
So we're looking at the Cardinals as dogs. We're looking
at the Niners as dogs. If you like the Rams, wait,
if you like the Bears, you might want to take
the three and a half. We'll probably end up on
the Giants and the Raiders, but we're keeping our powder
(42:38):
dry the last game. I think tonight has something to
do with it. The charters in the Ravens. Any initial opinion.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Here, No, I'm in no Russia about that one. Yeah,
they're like to me, if it goes under three, I'm
gonna take Lamar because we talked about I cap Lamar
different against Pittsburgh. Do any other team that's just for
some reason, that's just kryptonite of all the teams he plays.
We know the deal. If Lamar is under a three,
(43:07):
it's an auto play. Don't overthink it. He'll get back,
He'll get right that number. That opening number sounds right.
If the Chargers win this game tonight, this will come down,
so we'll get a better number. One. So I'm gonna
know Rush, but I do my early pick I want
to be on. Is this Ravens team all right?
Speaker 1 (43:26):
That covers it? Brother As a reminder, Favorites podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet
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and bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up
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(43:49):
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(44:11):
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(44:34):
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Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Action Network and
live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
We will review the five picks we put into the
Favorites contest, discuss why we left some out, preview the
(00:31):
early lines we already like for Week twelve. I'm joined
as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter Ellosa.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
I'm in, Hello, Chad. Hey, I want to say sorry
about your Bears, but at least we had a winning week.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I have such little expectations when it comes to the
Bears that the fact they played great for the Bears
and still lost the way they did is entirely on
par and the fact that Matt Ibraflus considered himself to
be a coaching genius who decides, yeah, I've got a
time out, I've got thirty seconds left in the game.
(01:15):
I can do something like maybe center the ball or
even hand the ball off and gain five extra yards
so my kick can have a little bit more loft,
so it's not a line drive as a longer kick
from a guy who does not have the biggest leg
in the world. But whatever Matt Ebraflus does, Matt Ebraflus,
it's why he won't be the coach of the Bears,
(01:35):
why he shouldn't been in the coach of the Bears
this season. The good news for us, we did have
an early day or a winning day, and thanks to
the early games, I feel like this was the most
stress free contest Sunday we have had all season. We're
three and two. Only one of those games was a
blowout that was the Lions. Even the games that were
(01:56):
in question, though in the early minutes, until in the
early games, until the final minutes, felt like we had
an edge. I'd argue that even the last game of
the day, which was the Chiefs and the Bills, we
felt like we had an edge because who would you
rather have have the ball that Patrick mahomes in the
(02:17):
final sixty seconds of a game. We'll get to all
of that. Catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube.
For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us
a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
(02:39):
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites,
deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment is never ordinary at Bet
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(03:01):
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or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
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Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
All right.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Our only loss from the early slate was the Cleveland Browns.
You tried to walk me off it. I said, we
have to do it. It'll be good for the show. You
know what. The problem with the good for the show
logic is, which we have done often in our time together, Simon.
It's terrible for the record. Terrible for the record. The
(03:43):
Browns had more plays we had the Browns plus half
a point. They ended up his favorites close to two
more plays, more passing yards, more first downs. They also
had only three point three yards per carry, were sacked
three times, when three or thirteen on third downs. This
was supposed to be the game where they and the
ball down the Saints' throats and their defense was amazing,
and none of that happened.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, you got Taysom Hill. I mean Taysom Hill. I
think I had like one hundred and thirty yards rushing,
three touchdowns. It's just one of those games. I never
trusted it, but you loved it. The number agreed with you,
I mean professionals bet at with you. And then it
felt like everybody was giving it out and it's like,
oh man, is anyone taking the Saints here? It was
(04:27):
just all Cleveland. So yeah, that was that was a miss.
But it's it's just it's a tough year. Like there's
other games like I wish you would have loved more,
but you know I got while you were comping this game,
it's like, let's fade this Saints team after emotional win,
and you know, they looked ready, they looked prepared for
(04:48):
this game. You can't stay the same for Cleveland. Cleveland
just looked really dysfunctional that whole game. And yeah, they
got out played by the Saints, so yeah tough. I mean,
like you just said, though, they got blown out. So
it was like I had that one on the TV screen.
I just switched it off after a little while because
it's like, this is not We're not coming back. We're
down fourteen. At one point, I was like, we're not
getting back from this. This is not not where you
(05:09):
want Jameis Winston to be leading you back. Even though
he actually didn't play that bad. I will say like
he had a pretty incredible throw in the corner of
the end zone. But Jamis the defense just no showed
absolutely no show by the defense of Cleveland. So they're
what two and eight, Now, that's a team that's totally
done with the season.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Yeah, I mean our biggest fear in this game was
Jamis actually didn't make any mistakes. The problem was their
defense didn't get any pressure. Like the premise for this
game was their defense would get pressure. Yeah, her defense
would cause Derek Carr to make the mistakes that he
always makes when he's under pressure. Because he had been
so good last week, we thought they were overvalued this
(05:48):
week by starting as a favorite. Derek Carr ended up
twenty one to twenty seven. Meanwhile, the Browns did not
stop the run. The Saints gained two hundred and ten
yards on the ground average seven yards per carry. Like pathetic,
pathetic display off of a bye against a team that
(06:12):
has no proven players on the edge offensively, But none
of that is as pathetic as Dustin Hopkins. Did you
see any of that?
Speaker 2 (06:26):
I did now. I saw the game on when he
was missing all those field goals.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Dustin Hopkins missed multiple field goals in the first half,
including a thirty two yarder that was waved off because
of a New Orleans penalty. They gave the Browns a
first down on the restarted series. I'm in my head,
I'm like, fuck, Jamies is gonna throw like a pick,
(06:50):
so there's gonna be no chance to even kick a
shorter field goal. So of course he almost throws a
pick in the red zone. The Browns end up having
to try another field goal. Well, this time Dustin Hopkins
missus from twenty seven all around. It was. It was
now almost from the get go. They went for two
when they were down seven to six, and they scored
(07:11):
like just all around a bad game for the Browns.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Yeah, they're they're just a really bad team, bad team.
We tried getting cue of it. I thought we were smart,
should just listen to our instincts, where we knew that
at plus three it was okay to take it. It was
a good number. Once it had moved as much as
it did, we should have known just stay away, And
unfortunately we did not, even though like it was a
game that we had locked in that you know, if
(07:37):
we had updated our picks this morning, maybe would it
have taken out because we would have had a bad
number on it. But yeah, unfortunately that was a game
you loved, and I really didn't hate it enough to
take it out, just because what we talked about the
Saints team, it's like they're a bad team as well.
Both these teams are bad. One team is clearly worse
right now, and that's Cleveland.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
Yeah, and also I think we just at the end
of the day, I would have been okay taking it out.
We thought we had the best of the number, and
while it hasn't mattered. It's still a bad habit to
bet against it. So we left it. There were two
games I think we could have put in there. I've
got those marked for after we get through our five.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh. We had Pittsburgh three and a half.
(08:17):
Congrats on us for not overthinking. Congrats on us for
pulling the trigger on the most obvious bet on the board.
Going back to last Sunday night, all the Tomlin trends
as a dog, all the Tomlin trends as a dog
at home, all the trends of Harbaugh is a favorite,
Lamar is a favorite. The trends for the underdogs in
this series, all of them went the way they have
(08:39):
been going for the past twenty years. Hooray.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Yeah, my best bad days. Like you just said, it's
the easy ones that are hard to you know, take.
Like I was with you earlier in the week, I
was like, is there something I'm missing because I didn't
get why it was still three and a half. Even today,
there was a bunch of books here in Jersey that
were still three and a half, and it just never
made sense. It's like, why aren't there professionals hammering this number.
Why is this not three or two and a half
(09:06):
by kickoff? So that was the only thing that kind
of scared me because it felt like you just said,
way too easy. We know this matchup, we know Lamar
struggles against Pittsburgh whatever that weird voodoo is, and little
do we know it's their kicker that it cost it
for him. I mean, the Ravens, I don't know what
they're gonna do. Justin Tucker, I mean, we've all been
(09:27):
thinking it that he's cooked. It's tough to deny it.
Like this guy can't hit him over fifty. Now he's
missing the ones under fifty, which he just never did.
It's tough when you're a kicker, you hit that wall
and all of a sudden, it's just different. And he
is a liability of this team right now. And we
got lucky for once with a kicker because, like you
just talked, with the kickers missing, at one point, we
(09:48):
had the Cleveland kicker miss and then they cut to
the Rams kicker missing, and then it cut to this
game with him missing. Justin Tucker, I'm like, okay, at
least we got one out of the three games here
going our way. But yeah, for once, Pittsburgh's kicker made
all his kicks for us, and we like we joke
that game is the easiest bet we make all year.
That matchup. It's you take whoever the dog is and
(10:10):
you bet the under, and both things were no sweats today.
The plus three and a half was never in doubt,
the under was never in doubt. So I wish they
could all be that easy. Sometimes the trends are just
that good chat you just can't overthink and just have
to bet these smart trends.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
Well, the Steelers did make us a little bit anxious,
I will say, because they could not score touchdowns and
against Lamar Jackson, against the Ravens, as good as the
Steelers defense is, and it was it was lights out today.
If you're not scoring touchdowns and you're getting the red
zone and you're only kicking field goals, you do leave
(10:46):
yourself open to being vulnerable to losing your bet and
losing that game, right, And there was a period in
the first half it felt like the Ravens could dominate
this game if they were able to get one or
two touchdowns in the first half, like convert one of those,
and they did towards the end of the first half,
(11:07):
but it felt like this whole game in the first
half was played between the forties right and just a
field goal kicking contest, and the Steelers kept getting it.
Did you ever feel nervous about this at all? Because
I felt a little bit anxious about it when we
got into the second half and the Steelers like could
not get into the end zone.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
No, these games are just really stupid. I mean, it's
just that all the turnovers they had as well Pittsburgh
and like you just said, they won the game, and
the Ravens scored two touchdowns, they scored zero touchdowns. Like
it's just that's how these games are. So it's like,
I don't know, I know people hate these teven games.
These are literally my favorite football games to watch. It's
like I love just ugly underdog, low scoring games with
(11:47):
the under and it's just like that's just my favorite
type of football. I know it's sickening for most people.
As a better it's just so much fun to watch
because every point matters so much. So I maybe you're right,
maybe the only part of me that really thought anxious
with the very end win. You know they're going for
two and it's just like Okay, could we lose this,
because then go to overtime and somehow Lamar gets the
(12:08):
six and we do lose. But honestly, the whole game
never really worried about it. I mean, I think we
started the game out the gates of what up six nothing,
The Ravens scored seven to six. Then at half it's
it's nine to seven. It's like, okay, as long as
they keep these this weird type of score, we're going
to cover this three and a half for three, Like
that's that's what we needed, is just a weird number
(12:29):
to land on it.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
At fifteen ten, the Steelers were near the Ravens goal line.
Russell Wilson got pressured. He threw the ball out of
bounds and out of the end zone, and my son,
who was sitting next to me, said, I feel like
he is in this game. I feel like he is
constantly throwing the ball away, and in my I said
out loud, that's what we like about him right now,
(12:51):
as opposed to someone like justin Fields. He's he's not
trying to reach very next play touchdown or interception in
the back of the end zone and what could have
been an eighteen to ten lead turns into a Ravens
with the ball. Unfortunately, like it played out our way
and everything you said, here's the most important thing. Ravens
(13:15):
are now seven and four, Steelers are eight and two.
The Ravens have looked terrible at times offensively, especially against
good teams. So what do we take away from this
about the Ravens right now?
Speaker 2 (13:31):
I mean, nothing's really changed. I thought they Honestly, I thought, okay,
those of I'll figure it out and win this division.
But yeah, Pittsburgh now just being the Commanders and then
turn around and winning this game. It's like, how do
we not give them their flowers and take them more serious?
It's like, yeah, it's their their division now. But the
Ravens I was just already out on like I had
zero futures on them for the super Bowl, just because
(13:53):
we talk I thought last year was the peak, it
was the perfect year. This year there's gonna be too
many holes when you're paying Lamar while you're paying them,
like we're like we even talked to the Chiefs. Yet
you're seeing that with the Chiefs, right, they can't afford
any offensive lineman because they're giving so much money to
Mahomes and a couple other guys. So it's the same
with the Ravens. It's like, yeah, big deal that they
got Derek.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
You know, Henry, he's been a game changer for them,
but they allocated money there and they've gone cheap in
other places, and you've kind of seen it this year.
It's just it's all on the mark. When he's not
on this one hundred percent a game, they're they're they're
a team you can beat, and you're you're right, Like
Russell Wilson, if he was a little better in this game,
the pittsfordh Steers probably would have rolled them like they
were moving the ball up and down the field, and
(14:33):
they just couldn't finish those drives. I will say, I
just remember there's one moment I was freaked out. It
was with Justin Fields. He could have got an easy
first down. He slid early to get the second and
two or second and one. Yeah, get this guy out here.
His field awareness is just zero.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
He slid a yard early.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:55):
So instead of going first down and basically ending the game,
it kept the drive. It allowed the Steelers to call
time or the Ravens called time out. That was ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
A man, I don't care how the other thirty one
to doing it.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
Rams at New England. We bet the Rams four and
a half. We liked them all week, but when we
discussed it this morning, this was the game you were
most worried about.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
Tell me why just for what I bet personally? Because
I told you I didn't really get the movement like
I was. I told you I was up all night
and they were down to three and a half and
I was betting it, but I was just like, what
is happening? Who is hitting this other side so heavy?
And I'm not gonna lie. I really did think we
were gonna get drake me at the end of that game.
It was just like they somehow didn't get that first
(15:42):
down the Rams when they could have done whatever they wanted.
It seems like every player they wanted to make is
easy with Cooper, Cup or Puka, but Stafford's like, now
let me throw it to my third tight end or
some random other guy on the outside. It's like, just
go to your best guys in these tight moments, Stafford,
come on, I don't care if they're covered. But yeah,
they punted up six. I thought, oh my god, I
(16:04):
can't believe this is gonna happen just because I mean,
they dominated that game, the Rams. They were clearly the
better side. But Drake May's got some moxie. That team.
They don't quit. They let him hang around. I think
at one point they were up I don't know if
we were up fourteen or maybe it was fifteen, a
random number. And you know, he comes down and gets
that touchdown and now we're only up six, and it's like, okay,
(16:24):
I thought the number should be six. Hopefully my model
is right and the Land's right on six, because that's
the whole reason we took this number, is like it's
under six. We think we're getting a good number here,
and the public was overacting that Patriots team, and they did.
That's what ended up being the number moved too much.
We got a good number. LANDA ray Ward should have
been Yeah, that's that was a nice cover. That was
a nice game. We talked about predicted hung in there,
(16:46):
kept it in there, and it was a good cover.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
That was a game where it just felt like the
Rams were playing with their food. Yeah, you know like
that they were. They were so much better than the Patriots,
and in the first quarter, like the Patriots were making plays,
they were getting momentum, they were building confidence, and then
from the second quarter through the third quarter, the Rams
(17:11):
basically went on a twenty eight to three run and
they were up twenty eight to ten. The Patriots score
a touchdown at the end of the third twenty eight
seventeen sixteen or something like that. Then they get that
last touchdown. I was definitely thinking we're fucked because they
(17:33):
went back to sort of playing with their food in
the same way we hit the Saints last week at
the exact right spot. I feel like we got the
Rams this week in the exact right spot. So the
challenge will be looking ahead. They've got the Eagles. It's
a primetime game, their dogs at home against the Eagles.
I'm going to be excited to talk about that game
(17:54):
with you when we get to the week twelve lines.
Jacksonville Detroit. This was our Big Balls bet of the week,
first time we've ever done a double digit favorite for
Big Balls Bet of the Week. We had Detroit minus
twelve and a half. As they say in Hollywood, no else.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Hello Detroit.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
No.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
That was the dream. That was a game we loved.
We both bet a bunch on and even if you're
betting a bad number, Like I even bet a couple
thirteen and a halfs and it's like, I should just
wait and maybe it goes back to thirteen. But I
was just I just felt like it was only going
to go up to fourteen by kickoff, but professionals held
that line, like that number really did budge back down
(18:42):
from fourteen to thirteen and a half. And you know,
we obviously had a good number in the contest. I
think we've bad twelve and a half, But wouldn't it mattered,
Like we even joked about, like these ermers really haven't
mattered for us so much in the contest. I mean,
two and a half's havelf, but other numbers, for the
most part, it's not really been landing on those numbers
as much. So that was the game where we were
final leaving it in even at a bad number. Honestly,
(19:04):
even at fourteen and a half, it'd have been like,
I don't know, I'll keep it in just because I
rather have that in than the Colts and end up
being the Colts being a great bet. So yeah, that
was a great bet. What was it twenty eight to
three to start the game. That's what you need when
you bet these huge favorites, It's like you just need
a roll to completely take the other team's will. And
(19:25):
that's what happened. I mean, the Jaguars quit instantly like
I think they had. They started the game with three
straight rushing touchdowns, and you know, it just looked like
the Jaguars were playing in mud. And this Detroit team
is just not like they're just incredibly talented. I saw
a lot of books move them to be the odds
on favorite right now for the Super Bowl. Makes sense,
(19:45):
like if they get home field and they're running like this,
you don't need Aiden Hutchinson if you're putting up you know,
thirty five forty points on any giving team, any given night.
So yeah, we know the deal. When this Detroit team
plays bad team Chad, we can't overreact and get word,
I've been these big numbers we just got taken. I
think now Evan could correct me if I'm wrong. I
believe double did your favorites now five and zero against
(20:06):
the spread this season.
Speaker 1 (20:07):
So I looked at this game and to me, it
was the get Jared Goff the MVP game. Like Dan
Campbell saw what happened last week with it, you know,
when they when they came back and with the five
picks this week, four hundred and twelve yards. I think
(20:28):
he was twenty four of twenty nine four touchdowns. They
kept the pedal to the medal the entire time. It's
almost like somebody was in Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell's
ear telling them, Okay Lamar is now completing fewer than
fifty percent of his passes. Of course, this was all
before the Bills played the Chiefs, which we'll get to
(20:53):
because that was our final game of the day. So
we went into the last game three and one on
the day, Patrick Mahomes as a dog and dude, twelve
minutes left, they're down twenty three fourteen. I say to myself,
the Bills are dominating this game, like time the possession
(21:16):
the Chiefs. Really they had two good drives, but the
Bills were playing better than the Chiefs were. And I
thought to myself, this is why we bet on Patrick Mahomes,
because in this moment, that's who you want to have
the ball. And I believe that right until the last
(21:39):
play of the game. Didn't work out for us, but
I never regretted betting on Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
The Bills.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Make me want something, throw your hands something, throw your
hand back to come.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Now the Bills. I'm making it happen now. Yeah, it
was a great run. It hurts, but you know I
make that bet every time, and we saw how it
could have worked out for us. It's pretty simple. It
was fourth and two. Josh Allen's up two. If he
gets stuff there, who knows, right, the Mahomes either drives
the field scores or he gets stuffed and that game's over.
We cover the two and a half. I hit my
(22:15):
under bet. It would have been really nice. Josh Allen
had a big moment right MVP moment he stepped up
the Chiefs for some reason didn't run a QB spine on,
which was just to me bizarre because it's like Matt
Mitchell said it. It just felt like it was a momentere
Josh Allen's like, this is going to be in my hands,
Like I'm not gonna let someone take this moment from me.
I think he is now four and one. Maybe I
could be wrong. Four and one straight up against Mahomes
(22:38):
in the regular season, which is pretty insane. Yeah, but yeah,
pretty big time play by Josh Allen and Yeah, that
was a really fun playoff game that came down to
two or three plays that didn't go our way. And yeah,
the worst part of it's the teasers didn't cover either
for Mahomes, which head into that spot. I think Evan
(22:59):
said he was fourteen to zero as an underdog on teasers.
Pretty brutal. That didn't cover. So yeah, I was hoping
we'd get the back door Chad get a big scramble
I think for thirty yards. They caught it back on
a hold, made it fourth and thirteen again, and it's like, Okay,
we're dead. We're not getting this back doors. So yeah,
tough loss, but yeah, just another day betting these trends.
(23:20):
It's tough when they don't work out for you.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
MVP adds just before the afternoon games, after the Jared Goff.
After Jared Goff threw for four hundred yards, he had
been twenty to one during the week. He had dropped
because of the five pick game before the Chiefs and
Bill's played. It was Lamar plus one thirty, it was
(23:45):
Josh Allen plus two fifty and Jared Goff plus six hundred,
so he jumped quite a bit. In the MVP tallies.
We're waiting on updated MVP adds. Post this Josh Allen game,
I amadine, and he'll now be the odds on favorite
to win the MVP, given that he just beat Patrick
(24:06):
Mahomes did it in spectacular fashion. Alert here for.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
Josh Allen looking for hell.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
He's alon.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
No, he's a flier.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
He's a football player through and through him here, but
there's nothing there.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
He goes, shan't try an excuse me touchdown?
Speaker 2 (24:28):
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
there's no fears, no way. He was being.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
Pizza.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
He's still going, Oh my god. The demands to do
something about this album reachous man making louder and louder.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
He was Mahomesyan. He made the play that he had
to make. He hit the guys that he had to hit,
converted hard third downs, scored the game winning touchdown, you know,
converted the fourth down. Kudos Josh Allen, Kudos Buffalo Bills.
Matt Mitchell maybe buying ice cream for his entire neighborhood
tonight because he's so excited. At the very least he
(25:19):
gets to eat wings with gloves because all of his
fears are over now.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
No chad buying ice cream for everyone in my neighborhood
is reserved for big playoff victories, regular season wins like this.
I celebrate the old fashioned way as a Bills fan,
which is breaking all the side mirrors off the cars
in my neighborhood.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Go Bills.
Speaker 1 (25:42):
All right, here's the regrets. I don't think we seriously
discussed the Colts enough. We had the Colts in the
underdog round robin along with Atlanta, Kansas City, and Tennessee.
None of them won, but the Colts and the Steelers did.
We never had a combo about them, and I felt
like we actually liked them more after Anthony Richardson was
(26:03):
named the starter. Why didn't? Why do we miss that one?
Speaker 2 (26:06):
I mean I loved him, It just it wasn't on
your radar. I only have so many winners in me
that should have been you that instead of Cleveland, you
should have the Colts. I got nothing to do.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
I love the Colts all week.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
I was never really on them. I bet them because
I liked the number, but it was like I was
never in love with it. You liked them more than me.
So I wish I could stay and be like I
knew the Colts was gonna be a great but I
honestly it wasn't on my radar. I just I didn't
know what Anthony Richards was going to react. He obtually
came out had an incredible game. I think at one
point he was like seven and nine passing like totally.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
Yeah. He ended a game like twenty thirty for two
seventy five or something like that. Yeah, and he converted
some fantastic third downs like that was a really grown
up football game for him.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Yeah. So again it was it was a good bet.
I wish we had made it, but yeah, I was
never it was never one of my bigger bets this week.
I never would have been in one of Like I
was never going to force in. So yeah, it sucks
where you definitely liked it, but it was never one
year like, oh, we have to get this one and
we never really talked about it. Now.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
Broncos was the other one. I felt like we had
done a full one to eighty on that one, and
we were all over Atlanta early in the week and
by the end of the week we really liked Denver.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Yeah. Chris Raybun helps though with that. Yeah, although like
when he starts bringing down all those stats, We're like, shit,
you're right. Like this Atlanta team, their offense still struggle
against good defense and Denver we've both talked about Denver
is a good defense. But bow Knicks man like that,
that was really a bon Knicks game. We talked about
it like I bet him Rookie of the Year just
(27:34):
because it's like, yeah, it feels like a two man
race between him and Jane Daniels. That might have been
his best game of the season. I mean, he played
incredible in that matchup. So yeah, the bow Knick stock
keeps going up every week.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
It really does. And look, Jade Daniels is struggling.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Yeah, I think Jane Daniels is injured. That's why.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
Yeah. I mean he struggled against the Eagles obviously, and
they got to him quite a bit. On Thursday night.
I was at that game. Let me just say this.
I know it's sacriligious to say these things, but after
a week of going to Knicks, Bulls at MSG, Bulls
win with three free throws with three seconds left, and
(28:12):
then Jalen Brunson has a shot go in and out.
Then I go the next night with my kid to
Eagles commanders at the link and Saquon goes off in
the second half. It's great. Eagles dominate. First half was
so freaking boring, and these games take so long, and
it's like every five seconds there's a minute to two
(28:33):
minute break. And then we went. We visited the University
of Maryland, which was amazing, great campus, really impressive school.
Went to the Maryland Marquette game and that game came
down to the final seconds. Maryland was down two with
fifteen seconds left left. A kid was on the line
to shoot two for Maryland missed them. Both game ends.
(28:54):
But like the in stadium, in game live experience for
basketball is just so much better in the NFL. It
just is.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Yeah, it all depends. I mean, you have a different
way watching football. It all depends the type of year
you are. I think you just like action, you like points,
which is nothing wrong with. Go watch NBA or go
watch NHL. That's for you. For someone like me, I
like that game. I know people didn't love if I loved.
That was an NFC East Classic. It was ugly. Every
catch mattered. I mean, guys were dropping the ball all
(29:24):
over the field because it's just so intense everyone's so tight.
I love that because you can feel it in the stadium.
So I get what you're saying. It's just a different
type of thing where it's like, yeah, do we both
want to see a fifty to forty five game? Sure,
I would have loved that and if the NFL game
was going crazy, but instead we got a what twenty
to twelve type of game? And that's just that's just
how it is sometimes.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
First of all, don't fucking insult me with I want points.
I grew up in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
You sound like a TikToker, dude. You sound like a
little little gen zer right now.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
Going to Bears games when it's four below and rooting
for the game to be three nothing Bears, because all
I want to do is sorry, you're soft.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Now, that was a lot.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
I'm definitely soft. I definitely thought after the game, I
don't really need to go to a game if it's
less than forty degrees. Number one, number two, it's it's
not the intensity, it's the interruptions and the commercial breaks
and the amount of time that is spent just sitting
there waiting for the next thing to happen. It could
(30:24):
be attention deficit. It could totally be about intention span,
but I'm just saying, as a product, the experience for
basketball was much better in game than the experience for football.
So I'm saying, thank god, we don't have to put
the Steelers in the Browns in the contest this week.
Looking ahead to Week twelve, the lines that we are
looking at Rounds are four point dogs at home. I
(30:47):
hate that I feel this way, you know, but I'm
glad we're not gonna have to put it in the contest.
I don't know if you have an early lean on
that game.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Yeah, we're supposed to about the Browns. You're right. I
don't want to do anything with that game. I want
to early lean Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Yep, there is a game. However, a team had to
buy this week. A team looked pretty good two weeks ago.
Last week, Carolina Panthers were eleven and a half point
underdogs against Kansa Cy Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Are you doing it?
Speaker 1 (31:22):
I'm not saying we're doing it like I think it
merits attention. I'm not going to bet it right now,
but I do think it merits some attention to think about, especially,
you know. Now.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
I agree that we're supposed to bet that we always
say we like to fade mahomes. But yeah, I wonder
if the our listeners will let us bet it. But
that's definitely a game that jumped out to me that
I want to bet. We just talked about it. Favorites
right now, double digits or five? And oh, I know
you you always talk about teams things being overdue. Isn't
a big dog overdue to win this year or cover
(31:59):
at least a big double digit spread? So yeah, that
numbers two big. I'll take it early here with you.
But I don't know if listeners will let us put
that one in. But I'm with you. I definitely love that.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
I can't see that one making it into the contest.
There are loads of home dogs this week. I'm gonna
read a list of the home dogs. There are seven.
I want you to tell me which ones you pinpointed it,
because I got a couple I want to see if
we match. The Bears are five point dogs at home
against Minnesota. These are all home dogs that I'm reading
off Indy seven points against Detroit Giants, three against Tampa Vegas,
(32:36):
three against Denver Green Bay, one against San Francisco Rams,
two and a half at versus Philly Chargers plus three
versus Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah, I mean jumped that right away. I wanted to
grab the Lions at minus seven. That's already up to
minus eight. Unfortunately. I just I felt like a little
too low to me for that cold steam, but not
that it's up to eight. It's like, I don't need
to rush and take that one. If you're still able
to get seven to seven and a half, I throw
(33:09):
a little bit on that, just because it seems like
it's gonna keep going up on this cold steam. Patriots?
Are we a suckers? Are we a sucker for trying
to take the patris a plus seven and a half?
That feels like it's a lot of points for that matchup.
Speaker 1 (33:21):
I forgot who they're playing.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
Hold on, they're playing Miami.
Speaker 1 (33:24):
Oh yeah, I was really focused on home dogs.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Yeah, I know they're on the road. I'm just taking
that one right now. They're just another big, big dog
that popped out to me. That just feels like that
number will come down just because you know, I know Miami.
They won what thirty one nineteen today, But.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
That was a a scoreboard win, not a box score win.
Like that game was much closer I agree about the
game than it should have been.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
And I think we both agree this. This Raiders team
is totally terrible, so terrible. What do we do with
that line? You see their line against Denver, it's minus four.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
I mean you have to take the Raiders like right,
just and that to me was.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
One of the fish That line's really fishy. Giants are
plus three and a half at home against Tampa.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
So that's interesting, Like some of these lines have moved.
You know, obviously these were the lines before we get
on the shodow and it's been thirty minutes that we
since we started recording. So now you're saying Raiders are
up to four. They opened at three, Giants are up
to three and a half. They opened at three. Like,
I'm gonna want to be on the Giants. I'm gonna
(34:33):
want to be on the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
I know. It's just again we need to like pull
it back because the like this, Like today, we took
a lot of lines I normally wouldn't honestly take, like
we we joked about the Chiefs were a really public dog,
the Pittsburgh was a really public dog. And Detroit I
think it was like ninety five percent of the bets
and the tickets in the action app were on Detroit.
But we're just leaning into this year like this year
(34:58):
thates not matter. The public's just been winning. So normally
I'd honestly be with you and just hammering these giants
and radio lines. But the public has been so good
it's like, I'm not Russian. I am not rushing to
bet these ways unless you're been in the favorites. Then
we just talked about you should rush because Denver just
went Chatty said, went from three up to four. So
that's early professional money coming in on them, a team
(35:19):
I wanted to feade no matter what because of what
happened today where the Seahawks. The Seahawks pulled up a
last second win. We can get Arizona right now plus
one plus two as a yes, yes, I'm so that's
an I'm scrabbing now in case it's the same thing
as like Cleveland. Don't know if we'll bet it as
a week goes along, because it might flip. But I
could easily see this number flipping as we sit here
(35:41):
Sunday night, where you out with the Bears because they're
three and a half against this Vikings team.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
Well it's come down. It opened at five. Wow, So
that tells me that professionals are coming in on the Bears.
And I, like, I got a lot of questions about
this Minnesota team. I just don't think Sam Darnold is
very good as a quarterback unless he's throwing to the
middle of the field. And they let Tennessee stay in
(36:09):
this game. So will Brian Flores be able to do
to Caleb Williams what he does to every rookie quarterback?
It's possible. Will the Bears have a come down moment
because they had their best game in the week where
they could run some new schemes with a new offensive coordinator,
and now there's a little bit more film on that.
(36:31):
Will they be emboldened like the Broncos were to come
out and just dominate after a really tough loss which
they should have won. Like, I don't know about that yet.
So for me, if it's already moved to three and
a half, we'll just fucking wait and see.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
Those are the professionals who were like literally talking during
that Bears again they were gonna bet the Bears no
matter what this opening week because they just think that
Kleb looks way freer. I guess then he's had looked
in weeks and I would totally agree, do you Because
again I didn't watch enough of that game. My idea
was it just seemed like by free, do you mean
he's just scrambling more and running with the.
Speaker 1 (37:11):
Bowls ran a lot more, But also he was It
felt like they were they were throwing more vertical passes
like downfield, like the routes he was running were the
receivers were running were just more vertical. They weren't throwing
as many crossing routes, and the players made better plays.
(37:32):
There were also a lot more screens, Like it was
out of his hands in about two seconds flat versus
being closer to three seconds. So who knows, maybe the
protection was a little bit better, but clearly they did
something that gave him the confidence, that gave him the
confidence to play as aggressively as he did all game.
I think a lot of it had to do with
getting the ball out of his hands fast.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
All right, I'll throw a couple of thousand on them,
because I could see professionals betting this down the three
So because I was with for the one o'clock games
and they were just a bunch of them were just like,
this is gonna be a bit, This will be a
good change for this Bears team. Like they seem like
they had a rhythm to them. And I honestly wasn't
watching the game enough to have an opinion on it,
but I trust their opinion. You're saying, you're kind of
seeing the same stuff. It's like, Okay, I already was
(38:16):
looking for a reason to fade this Viking team because
I'm with you. It's like their defense has just been
carrying them this season. Their defense is so good with
their offense. Sam Darnold's just been so inconsistently these last
couple of weeks. And you know, now he's got another
game on the road outdoors against a divisional opponent. You
expect this to be a tough matchup for him. So yeah,
(38:37):
that makes sense. Sucks. It feels like we missed the
best of it, right, But yeah, I still think three
and a half might be the best of it because
I could see this keep going down if professionals or
keep hitting this number.
Speaker 1 (38:47):
Where are you at on rams plus two and a
half versus the Eagles? Versus the Eagles?
Speaker 2 (38:55):
My view would is be patient if you like the Rams,
which I kind of do. But I took the Eagles
here right away at two and a half because there's
a couple of books at it to two and a half.
I just took that early just because I assume this
will go up to three three and a half by kickoff.
This is the Sunday night game, so uh, this this
makes sense right the I would say this is a
(39:21):
great test for this Eagle scheme because we've all heard
the hype right now with these rookie cornerbacks and everyone's
talking about how the difference they're making, and this will
be the ultimate test Cooper Cup Puoka, you know, to
the best in the game going against young corners. You
just think that'd be advantage to this Rams team. And
we know that this Eagles team is different on the road.
You know, Jalen Hurts is just better simply at home.
(39:43):
But it's a big deal. They're on extended rest and
this is a Sunday night game, so it's like coming
off of mini bye week against the Rams team that's
coming off the road. You know, this is not it's
not sure rest, but it kind of is right because
they're not getting hume till tonight. Yeah, that's that's definitely
a big deal. So I would say, if you want
to grab the early number and you like the Rams,
(40:03):
I would just wait. If you like the Eagles, I'd
grab it now because I could easily see this just
going up to three three and a half by Sunday night.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
Boy to Eagles fans, love Cooper dejan Man.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
Yeah, did you see his a T shirt? He award
you're a big wine guy. I forget now. So you know,
like if you go shopping for wines, they'll be like
the labels to say, exciting whites. Okay, So him in
this human blanker ship wore these shirts. This had exciting
whites on it, and they've got it from this guy
at the Different Mall, which if you know the local area,
(40:37):
it's like, you know, different malls are like I love
Different Mall. It's our trashing mall. Like just the good
people of South Jersey send him and this other guy
this exciting white shirt. So just it's just hilarious. So
just we have a white safety and white cornerback who
are sick. It's it's so random, so funny.
Speaker 1 (40:54):
All right, what else am I missing? You mentioned Arizona?
There is a one and a half out there by
the way.
Speaker 2 (41:01):
Yeah, yeah, I saw too. So the twos are going
down to one and a half.
Speaker 1 (41:05):
It's worth checking out. What else? What did I miss?
Speaker 2 (41:08):
Just we just talked about this forty nine ers team
obviously is not the same team. Isn't this the time
to buy plus one and a half in Green Bay?
I mean you just watched that Green Bay. Something's wrong
with Jordan Love? Like, can we all agree he's just
not what he was last year? Like I know if
it's all the injuries, but he's reckless with the ball.
(41:29):
Did he have another interception in this game?
Speaker 1 (41:30):
He did a costly one at the goal line.
Speaker 2 (41:34):
Yes, Like he just he keeps making these mistakes and
I don't want to fault him to her because it's
his second year as a starter in this league. It's like,
this is what we expect. Like that last year we
talked about that was lighting in a bottle. You know,
if they would have lost that game, I might have
been more convinced to take them here. How do we
not take this Fortnite team? They have to be one
(41:55):
of the more desperate teams in all football, and now
they're a dog in this spot. This could be a
little bit like the Chiefs last week, where I got
a little bit. Maybe I'm getting a little bit blind
to it just because I love the number here. But
I make this a pick. We're getting plus one and
a half plus two right now in the forty nine ers.
This is just an early bet I'm going to make
right now. It's forty nine ers two. I just love
that number, all right.
Speaker 1 (42:16):
So we're looking at the Cardinals as dogs. We're looking
at the Niners as dogs. If you like the Rams, wait,
if you like the Bears, you might want to take
the three and a half. We'll probably end up on
the Giants and the Raiders, but we're keeping our powder
(42:38):
dry the last game. I think tonight has something to
do with it. The charters in the Ravens. Any initial opinion.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Here, No, I'm in no Russia about that one. Yeah,
they're like to me, if it goes under three, I'm
gonna take Lamar because we talked about I cap Lamar
different against Pittsburgh. Do any other team that's just for
some reason, that's just kryptonite of all the teams he plays.
We know the deal. If Lamar is under a three,
(43:07):
it's an auto play. Don't overthink it. He'll get back,
He'll get right that number. That opening number sounds right.
If the Chargers win this game tonight, this will come down,
so we'll get a better number. One. So I'm gonna
know Rush, but I do my early pick I want
to be on. Is this Ravens team all right?
Speaker 1 (43:26):
That covers it? Brother As a reminder, Favorites podcast is
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(43:49):
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(44:11):
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