The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 12

With Thanksgiving's bountiful NFL spread just one week away, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk all things betting for NFL Week 12. Together they go through a sea of underdogs worth investing in, along with their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more. 

To RSVP for the FREE Favorites Podcast LIVE event in downtown Philadelphia on December 12th, follow this link now!

And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume  #herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am
live from my Tommy John home studio, joined as always
by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF
professional better Simon Hunt.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
Hello, so I am in Hello chat. How are we doing? Brother?

Speaker 1 (00:36):
I'm ready, I'm ready. I think there are some really ugly,
ugly games. I don't know about you. You said on
Tuesday you were feeling good about this week. It took
me until about two pm yesterday to find real clarity
and start to get comfortable with some of these games
because they are so ugly. We had a long chat

(00:59):
about the chip Is Big Favorites over the Panthers this week,
and I just wanted to put some stuff in context.

Speaker 3 (01:04):
We're going to talk more about that game.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
You mentioned that double digit Phaves are five to oh
this season against the spread. Evan confirmed that in his
excellent Excellent Trends piece this week. Double digit Phase five
to oh this year the first time they have been undefeated,
not just against the spread, undefeated as winners this late

(01:26):
in the year. In twenty seasons and only the second
time in the past forty seasons. But if you want
to know how extraordinary it is that the double digit
favorites are undefeated against the spread, you have to go
back to nineteen fifty. That is the last time double
digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through Week eleven.

(01:48):
If you need some context for this, I thought you'd
appreciate this as a professional better and a connoisseur of
history all things betting. In nineteen fifty, Simon, the points
spread was less than a decade old.

Speaker 3 (02:05):
It was invented in the early.

Speaker 1 (02:07):
Nineteen forties via math genius and trader in Chicago named
Charles McNeil. Because all the stuff that makes people happiest
comes from Chicago, Deep dish pizza, Chicago style hot dogs,
and the points spread.

Speaker 3 (02:23):
That's the list.

Speaker 2 (02:24):
I thought you're gonna do the Darren revl and be
like the number one movie and the number one song
played when this happened.

Speaker 1 (02:31):
Today is our NFL Week twelve Best Bets episode. Simon
and I are going to narrow down are five picks
in the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
Them Contest presented by Bet three six five. Go ahead,
sign up now you can still win the weekly prize
as Favorites that Action Network dot Com.

Speaker 3 (02:46):
We're gonna get to the foxhole.

Speaker 1 (02:47):
We're going to give out our Tommy John big Ball's
bet of the Week which won last week.

Speaker 3 (02:52):
By the way.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets or boosted money line,
Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Ron Robin, and so much more, bets,
rolling in lines or moving decisions need to be made.
As our volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard.

Speaker 3 (03:07):
Likes to say there's a sea of money out there.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props,

(03:31):
futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at
Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older
and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

(03:53):
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply as
always Thursdays in the season. We're gonna hear how the
wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversations. We are
moving lines, my good friend Simon Hunter, that's why they
feel compelled to weigh in on our decisions. So Simon,
let's get to it.

Speaker 3 (04:13):
Chuck calls.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
Hello, who's there. I'm talking Rain.

Speaker 3 (04:20):
Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what you do man?

Speaker 2 (04:27):
Yeah, let's start with a Thursday night. As fans of
this show, no, we were felt like we had to
take the browns and we kind of felt like we
were following the professionals here. Nothing's changed, right, It's been
really professional heavy pros verse shows. It's really heavy for
the public on the Pittsburgh side. Professionals have come in.
Even when this number is ticked up, the plus four

(04:47):
you've seen to come crashing right back down at plus
three and a half. So the books, the professionals, they've
kind of draw a line the sand here, and they
do think this is an upset. And then Evan's article
came out and you saw what I saw chat all
that info about Tomlin on these Thursday night games against
divisional opponents, So I didn't really understand where they're coming from.
Now starts to make sense. Then you add in that

(05:08):
we have some bad weather coming in. So yeah, this
went from being everyone thinking it's gonna be a boring
Pittsburgh blowing this team out kind of game to is
Cleveland had actually a shot to win this game out right,
So that's a really fun game. Let's get into the
big dogs. Professionals, they love the Colts this week, they
love the Panthers, and a couple of guys shockingly like

(05:30):
the Titans. Now, the Titans is the smallest one, I
would say the other ones. Guys are bet more confident.
Guys are kind of playing playing this Titan spot because
of the number and the fact that this team is
one to nine against the spread. Right, Like, eventually the
book is going to catch up to a give you
extra points. Sam goes to that Houston team, right, if
the that's the view of it. CJ is a different
guy as a big favorite. We've seen him be you know,

(05:51):
so much better and consistent as an underdog. So that's
Those are a couple of interesting games that we're gonna
dive into. Uh for games we love the pros love
with us rams. That's one. Will spend a bunch of
time on Chargers. Not that shocking. Uh, they love your
Arizona Cardinals pick. We've seen that number flip flopping, right,
We've seen that get up. They've got up to one
minus one and a half of a couple of books Arizona,

(06:13):
so that that line's been moving like crazy. Now this
is a game. Mean, you really haven't touched on Denver.
Like I've talked to a lot of really sharp groups
that love this Denver number, and they've taken this number
from hoping of three all the way up to six
and now chat. So that's a game that like, if
we're going to force in a favorite, maybe I could
convince you on that Denver team because it's a good

(06:34):
matchup for them defensively, offensively. I get where they're coming from,
and I agree that at five and a half, if
you can still get in contest or in your pickpool.
I take that value. That's a really good number on
that Denver team, and then a game that means you
spend a little time on that much though was the
forty nine Ers green Bay. Our whole issue was, Okay,
brock Pertty is missing practices. This is a big deal

(06:56):
that that to me would make me want to take
Green Bay if they're obviously gonna play back up pretty practice,
no problem. Yesterday Apparently Sam goes with Kittle, who we
talked about how important he is to that offense. So
we've seen the money come in now on that fort
nine ers team. Now it's down to one and a half.
So you know, a couple of guys I talked to
that are pretty smart, they're ahead of it. They got

(07:16):
to two and a half. I was gonna be on
the other side, but Chad knows on something that I
wanted to be on the forty nine ers, So I'm
happy to come back on this fort Niners teams. That's
a position I wanted to be on. It was all
about if Perdy was gonna play. He seems like he's
good to go. This seems like a really nice spot
to back this fort nine ers team. So yeah, the professionals, Chad,
they're beting big on the dogs this week, and I

(07:37):
think this is kind of the spot. Either the public's
gonna be I have a ton of money in their
pocket head into Thanksgiving, or they're gonna be chasing pretty
hard come that Thanksgiving three day games Slate.

Speaker 1 (07:49):
Look, I'm glad to hear all this because obviously I'm
having different conversations than you, and a lot of my
work between Tuesday and Thursday is hungry down researching, looking
at advanced analytics. See that if I can find an
edge across any of the things that we look at,

(08:10):
from success rate to EPA, et cetera. And I was
starting to feel so much better about some of these teams.
The Niners are an interesting one, and I think that's
sort of a tipping point game for us.

Speaker 3 (08:27):
I'm excited to get to that. We're going to dig
into all of it before we do.

Speaker 1 (08:33):
Reminder, our latest free Free Favorites podcast Watch Party is
happening in a few weeks December twelfth. That is a Thursday,
December twelfth, in Simon Hunter's hometown of Philadelphia, right there
in Center City, Folks. We're going to the Wicked Wolf.

(08:56):
I heard it's a banging spot. A lot of people
have said to me, oh, I love that play. We're
gonna have free drinks. It's gonna be a live Q
and A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell is gonna
be there too. We're all gonna hang out. We're gonna
sweat and bet and enjoy the Thursday night football.

Speaker 3 (09:12):
I wonder what Mike Tomlin is gonna say about that.

Speaker 2 (09:14):
We're gonna go into tag mode. We will not go gently.
We're gonna unleash hell here in December because we have to,
because that's what's required.

Speaker 1 (09:21):
You've must RSVP space will be limited to RSVP. Check
out the link in the podcast description page or the
YouTube episode description. Simon and I will tweet it out
as well. RSVPs are coming in. Do not delay. I've
gotten a lot of requests from people to start putting

(09:43):
more stuff on threads. I joined threads last night. Milman
C go ahead and follow me. I posted a link
to the rs VP in my threads feed.

Speaker 3 (09:56):
I'll do I'll do the episode. I'll do the rs
VP there as well.

Speaker 4 (10:00):
Well.

Speaker 3 (10:00):
I'm not abandoning X.

Speaker 1 (10:01):
I'm just saying I'm adding threads, getting a lot of
requests for threads content, so we're going to put it
all in there again. RSVP joined me, Simon Matt Mitchell.

Speaker 2 (10:11):
Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be
all in.

Speaker 1 (10:14):
All right, let's get rolling, Simon. Right now, we're starting
with Kansas City at Carolina. We have assiduously That's right.
I said it assiduously, big word. Avoided the Carolina Panthers
since they basically turned our podcast audience against us after
about three weeks. We have avoided them all season long.

(10:38):
They are eleven point underdogs. I think it's going to
go higher. I wanted to put this on the list
just so we could officially dismiss it and so I
can refer to Evan's double digit stats off the top.

Speaker 3 (10:51):
I think it's time to fade those stats. And I'm
not afraid of the Panthers here.

Speaker 2 (10:56):
It's fair and I don't want to move on too quick.
Did you say banging? Is that in your vocabulary? You
said that they had banging food at the bar we're
going to.

Speaker 3 (11:05):
I said, it's a banging spot.

Speaker 2 (11:08):
I don't even know what just happened. I can't believe
that's that's part of your nineties lingo. I love it.

Speaker 3 (11:12):
Check dude, do you know how I am so hip banging?
I'm banging?

Speaker 2 (11:19):
I just let you just said it. It just kept moving.
I was like, oh my god, I can't let this
keep going. Yeah, Panthers are banging this week? How do we?

Speaker 1 (11:29):
I don't know how you see me, but the way
I see myself very hip to the trance.

Speaker 2 (11:35):
I don't know about that.

Speaker 3 (11:37):
I only had to look.

Speaker 1 (11:38):
Up pink tote lid moment once today.

Speaker 2 (11:42):
Yeah, this Panthers team, it's it's what you're just talking about.
We're just playing the number, right, trying not to overthink it.
I talked about I have this at eight eight and
a half. We're getting a ton of value here. It
doesn't feel good, Chad. I think you're in the same
boat as me where it's like it's I think we
have PtD from betting this Carolina team. But it's really

(12:03):
all about playing this number. We've seen it before with Mahomes.
The public drives these numbers up. And that's why he
is three and one as a ten point favorite of
More And it's because the public drives the number up.
The books have no issue pushing it to its limit
because they know that this is going to be the
number one t's game, on the number one money line
parlay game, all of that. So you're right, I'm trying

(12:25):
to think it will take the value at ten and
a half, I was already committed. Now it's up to eleven. Again,
eleven and a half. How do we not take that chat?
So to me, it's really about the number, the matchup
to this Panthers team. You know, as bad as they've been,
we've seen these last couple of weeks that Bryce Shunk's
found a little bit of confidence and he's pushing the
ball downfield, and that you know, as great as this

(12:47):
Kansas City team is going to is against the run,
we know that the Panthers they'll find a way to
run the ball. That's just what they've done all season.
So I was hoping we would avoid this one, But
now that we sit here on Thursday, it feels like
this is gonna be one of our five. It's just
too good of a number, too good of a spot
to pass on this Panthers team.

Speaker 3 (13:05):
Well, here's our challenge. And by the way, we're in
the foxhole.

Speaker 2 (13:09):
You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a
foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

Speaker 1 (13:15):
And we're not in the foxhole against the professional betters here.
We're in the foxhole against our listeners. I hate to
say it, so we are because I can feel the revolt.
I can feel my threads feed just blowing up with
feedback about the Panthers.

Speaker 3 (13:34):
But yeah, this is this is just how.

Speaker 1 (13:40):
We play the game. And look, there's three fewer games
this week, right, so there's not as many options, and
all of these games, like there are a lot of
ugly dogs, and there aren't the obvious favorite spots like
we've had in the past. The numbers say you got
to take the Panthers here. So if we're gonna play,
let's play like we're supposed to. We're taking the Panther.

(14:00):
I think it's going to be in the contest. I
hate doing it to people, But if you want to
be with us, if you want to jump in the
foxhole with me and Simon, look we're gonna buy you
free drinks in Philly.

Speaker 3 (14:09):
So if it doesn't work out, at least you're.

Speaker 1 (14:11):
Getting that from US Minnesota at Chicago Bears are three
and a half point underdogs. This has been a weird game,
Like it says play the home dog with a defense
whose strengths match up to the fading QB's weaknesses. The
trends say fade the road favorite with a win percentage

(14:31):
seventy five percent or more. It's forty three percent.

Speaker 3 (14:34):
The past decade.

Speaker 1 (14:36):
I just can't get there, Like I think, I think
Caleb Williams going against Brian Flores for the first time
is a real X factor here that is not being
considered in all sort of bet the number blind metrics
that we see. And I know Sam Donald is fading.
Like I'm not a fan of Sam Donald. We've been

(14:58):
looking for ways to fade him the last few weeks.
But I got huge, huge concerns and numbers to back
it up with Brian Floores against Caleb Williams.

Speaker 2 (15:08):
Yeah, I'll take the coward, right. I mean, I'm still
taking the plus three and a half, but I definitely
feel more confident taken on the under in this game,
Like I'd rather take that than you can take this number,
especially because we talked about this is this numbers moved
a ton at four and a half. I honestly would
feel pretty good taking this number, just because I do
think it's gonna be a low scoring, really close game.
And as much you want to knock this Barry's team,

(15:29):
with Kayleb Williams all of his games, for the most part,
he plays pretty close. Like it feels like they're always
in these games, and they're in these tight games. And
you know, as as much you want to bash this
Bary's team, it's the defense that's kept them in a
lot of these games as well, Like they've kept them
in a really close matchup. So I like both defenses
in this game, like both them matchup well. For the
offense on the other side, your hesitation is warranted, Like

(15:53):
we know the deal. You guys can't block anyone of
the Bears, and now you have a team that can
just throw a ton of different looks and blitz back.
It's not ideal for Kayleb Williams. So I'm with you.
I coming into this week, I really was loving this spot.
Now is week going along, It's like I still like it.
I just prefer the under more. So I'm happy to
passing this one. I'm making one of our five.

Speaker 1 (16:12):
You know what's interesting and I'm glad to hear you
sort of found a different perspective. I was afraid you
were going to try to bully me into taking the Bears,
and I just didn't get the love. I got the
love for the Bears at five and four and a half,
but still hearing about it at three and a half
is confusing to me. We got a one game sample
size of the Bears, you know, with a new offensive

(16:37):
coordinator and trying to be a little more vertical, and
most importantly, Caleb getting rid of the ball and two seconds,
you know, two and a half seconds instead of holding
onto it forever.

Speaker 3 (16:47):
That's it.

Speaker 1 (16:48):
The Packers are just not the same defense as the Vikings.
And here's a stat I stole from Evan and his
excellent piece about the trends and betting this week. When
Caleb Williams faces defense with the sack percentage of two
percent or higher, and that's basically when the opponent's percentage
of plays that end as a sack while on defense,

(17:09):
that's how you calculate sack percentage. He's one and six
straight up, scoring less than twenty points in six of
the seven games. The Viking sacks percentage sacks sack percentage
five and a half percent. Like, I just feel like
they're going to do so many things that confuse him,
to fuddle him, make him hold the ball. They'll drop

(17:32):
back into coverage and still get pressure. I don't like it.
I don't like it a little bit. I want you
to talk me off a game New England at Miami.
Sharp money has moved this from seven and a half
to seven, so you've lost the hook. But this feels
like a classic eye test versus in numbers game to me. Like,

(17:55):
we watch a lot of Patriots games because we're either
betting on them or betting against them the past few weeks,
and we've watched the past couple of games with Tua
and the Dolphins, And when I look at these games
with two especially, I think the Rams beat themselves against Tua.
The Raiders game, this was a five point game with

(18:16):
three and a half minutes left, okay, and the Raiders
were a defensive pass interference away from getting the ball
back and having a chance to win that game. They
get a bad call, the game sort of gets blown
open with a couple of freakish plays, but they were
five points out of that game with three and a

(18:38):
half minutes left, and I think the Pats are gamers.
I think Drake May is a gamer. I think their
biggest detriment is they have a coach who's just way
too conservative and like puts them in bad spots where
you don't get the opportunity to cover as much. But
I want to bet the Pats.

Speaker 2 (18:55):
Yeah, it's another game that we're basically just trusting the number.
You know. I haven't put a penny or anything on
this money line of this Patriots team. I thought by
this point I would just because he just nailed it. Like,
I don't really trust Miami team, but I really think
about it, this Miami team is gonna be able to
score points in this Patriots defense, especially at home and
that kind of spot that just we've seen two. He's

(19:17):
a different player at home and especially against Yeah, but
it's all about the number. Brother. If it was seven
and a half, I'd be more confident putting this in
the contest. I look where he came on. It was
six and a half. So it's all exactly. There's no
point if you can waste our time because we're not
gonna take it. So if you want to bet it
with us, it's not one of my five or six

(19:38):
bigger bets. But it's really it's really about the number,
like seven and a half Drake made against this Miami team.
I feel like me and you have an opportunity for
a back door at six and a half. Obviously there's
no value there. I just I don't want to force
that number in those So you know, we just talked
about an ugly dog. I'd rather have been there, Carolina,
because it's still a better number than this is. So

(19:58):
that's what it's gonna come down to. People are gonna
be why don't you guys end up having this one?
It's just a bad number. So I'm with you. I
like this number, like the spot Drake May. We've seen
him be a difference maker for that offense, right. I
don't know if it was you or someone else talked about,
but like you know, they have one of the worst
pass pass blocking offenses in all football, the Patriots. That's
been good for Drake because it makes him get outside

(20:19):
the pocket. We've seen him really excel when either runs
a ball or pushes the ball downfield like that seems
to be what he's so great at is getting out
and making the defense kind of move around unorthodox and
throw the ball downfield. So you know me and you
aren't scared of this Miami defense in any way. We
know they have a couple of guys who can rush
the passer, but overall they're just not that very good
of a defense. So it's seven and a half too

(20:40):
many points. I would still take that number if you
can find it.

Speaker 3 (20:43):
What do you mean? You don't know if it was
me or somebody else? Who else are you listening to?
Why would it like? What would not be me?

Speaker 2 (20:51):
Because I talked to like hundreds of people every week.
I don't know if it was you that said that's
that thing or someone else. It all melts together, Simon.

Speaker 1 (20:57):
I don't forget anything you say to me. I catalog it,
I make a note, I put it in the script.
I remember almost every encounter because they're all that special.
And I feel like you're discounting what I'm saying in
our relationship.

Speaker 2 (21:13):
So that does that mean you did say it?

Speaker 3 (21:16):
It's possible.

Speaker 1 (21:18):
Listen, I'm so old that you're surprised when I'm using
the word banging. How can I remember what I'm saying
about Drake May on a Tuesday? Yeah, Drake May is
banging Tennessee at Houston. All right, I there's a couple
of games on this board this in San Francisco that
I feel like are gonna sneak their way in and

(21:43):
or could potentially as like scary bets. Like this list
line has moved all over since we discussed it. It
was at eight, it got to eight and a half,
then it get down to eight in some spots. Now
it's down to seven and a half. You were adamant
that Texans were the side we discussed it the other day.
They are a massive, massive public play, very chalky. Eighty

(22:06):
percent plus of the tickets on the techan Texans, And
I would say in any other year, it's a no brainer.
We're betting the Titans. We're like, not even hesitating. We're in,
We're excited, we're optimistic. We feel like we got a
sort of a bead on the on the right line here.

(22:27):
But man, Will Levis, you know, and Evan's got some
crazy stats. You just mentioned one of them. But you know,
give me your take here. What are we thinking?

Speaker 2 (22:37):
Yeah, it's it's fair like professionals are betting Tennessee because
they're not that bad of a team. Something you talked
about every week. It's like they have a pretty good defense,
they can run the ball pretty well. It's just they
thought Will Lobson Mason Rudolph at the quarterback position this season.
There's a reason. That's that's why they're one to nine.
So I don't disagree with the people. It's like I
want to be on Tennessee. Who doesn't. They're you're getting
a bunch of free points because they're the only people

(22:59):
betting them as professional betters. But I can't get there.
I got no faith in this team, especially the Texans.
We've seen it. They're what ivan ten and one or
nine on one first half against the spread, Like, yeah,
they come out, they come out fast. Jad. This Texans team,
you know, there's a reason they have ten covers in
the first half. Like they don't mess around. They're just

(23:20):
a really well coached team, not only offensively, we've seen
defensively they just have they have some real gamers. So
I know I wanted to be on Tennessee. I want
to get there, but I can't do it. Like to me,
it's just it's still not enough points. But the professionals
betting this makes makes sense. Jad, Like I'm I'm someone
that's been betting Tennessee, I feel like for the last

(23:41):
two three weeks and it's just never getting there. And
even though I'm getting a ton of points, they somehow
always forgot a way to shoot themselves on the foot.
It's mainly because of the quarterbacks. They're just the turnovers
are such killer, especially on their own end of the field.
So yeah, I'd rather lose money this week on the
Panthers than Tennessee, I tell.

Speaker 3 (23:58):
You that much. I totally agree with you.

Speaker 1 (24:01):
I can't decide if with the Panthers, I mean with
the Titans. You make a great point about the Texans
in the first half. If this game goes to form
and the Texans are great in the first half, the
Titans have been awful against the spread in the second half,
essentially for the entirety of the Will Levis Ere the

(24:22):
past two calendar years seven to twenty six and one
against the spread in the second half. This year one
to nine against the spread overall, the second time that's
happened through eleven weeks in thirty thirty years. This is
why you want to at least not bet on the Titans.
Forget about betting the Texans. The one thing I will

(24:44):
say about the Titans, and this is reflected in the
luck rankings, and we're gonna have some luck rankings games
in here. This is a big luck rankings under for
anyone who's interested. They have been incredibly unlucky. And if
you look even at the game last week right where
the Vikings covered and we thought that, you know, we

(25:05):
were anxious about cover there. It's one of the reasons
we didn't put in the contest. The Titans easily could
have covered that game. And I talked about this on Tuesday.
I'm sure you remember Simon cataloging everything have ever said.
Sam Darnold was kind of terrible in that game. Got
most of his yardage from three plays. Bad handoff led

(25:29):
to a fumble, he fumbled, they recovered, The Vikings recovered,
but the Titans had like multiple penalties that called back
game changing plays.

Speaker 3 (25:42):
Is that luck? Is that bad coaching? Were they bad calls?
I just feel like they're incredibly unlucky. Is that enough
to want to bet them put them in the contest.
I don't think so.

Speaker 1 (25:54):
But they're like they're barely on the outside looking in.
It could be time for that trend to reverse. You
know what I'm saying, Simon, Yes, sir, are you ready?

Speaker 3 (26:07):
Four hour Big Balls Better the Week.

Speaker 1 (26:15):
Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support. I know it because I'm where
my Tommy John's right now. Great games start with great underwear.
Tommy John makes the greatest. Last week, we did something
we've never done. We took the Detroit Lions as huge, huge,

(26:37):
double digit favorites as our big Balls Better the Week,
and it paid off, paid off better than investing in
a pair of Tommy John underwear.

Speaker 3 (26:46):
This week, we're fading.

Speaker 1 (26:50):
The Detroit Lions is seven and a half point road
favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.

Speaker 3 (26:57):
We talked about it on Tuesday. We got to choose
between our babies. That's all this is.

Speaker 1 (27:03):
We've been betting the lines, we've been betting the Colts.
We're going with the Colts.

Speaker 2 (27:08):
It doesn't matter if you have one ass, cheek and
three toes, I will beat your rass.

Speaker 3 (27:12):
What's in your mind about this?

Speaker 1 (27:14):
Because we just talked about it right before we came out,
so we didn't get to, you know, dig deep on it.
We've heard from sharp calls that they are on the Colts,
have you because on Tuesday I felt like we were
still fifty to fifty.

Speaker 2 (27:26):
Yeah, this is a classic case of me getting bullied
into a pick. I liked it, but it feels like
every pro I know is just like you guys are
suckers if you don't take the Colts here. And you
liked it, I can tell I kind of liked it,
and then I read Evans article and it's like, Okay,
now it's all coming together. I when the trends back

(27:47):
up with the professionals like and you can see how
there is a gainscript. There is a way for this
to be that type of game where we talked about
Detroit Dada Hudginson thing has not really bit them. This
is the type of game it does right, and a
game where you know, they don't have that guy that
can contain the outside. They don't have that athletic freak
on the outside who's gonna be able to match the

(28:10):
speed of this Colts offense. Because we've seen Anthony Richardson.
You know, sure, you can say it's a small sample,
but they talked to him. They said to him, Okay,
you need to use your body more. We were no
longer protecting you. You need to run the ball more
and that's that's when we're at our best. And you
know last week in that game, he really did put

(28:31):
it all on himself. I mean that was an incredible
drive end of the game to lead his team down
the field and score that touchdown. And you know, how
how do they keep building off of that? We don't know,
but it's seven and a half. I'm willing to pay
for that insurance. It feels like we're getting a really
good number here against the Detroit team that we joked.
I don't know when the peak Valley's gonna be on
this trade team, but this is getting pretty close to it.

(28:53):
Like we know that they beat up on bad teams.
They have done so this year. Me and you both
love this Colts team. They're not a bad team, and
we've seen them just be different at home. I think
I'm almost positive covered. It feels like every game at
home this season like we've just been betting them at home.
And you know, Anthony Richardson, as much as people have
doubted him this year, he's one of the best covering
quarterbacks in all of football. Like he's great to bet on.

(29:14):
He just he finds a way to cover. And you know,
even though me and Chat had been on the been
on his side for a lot this season, we feel
like we've got lucky. I mean, especially that Week one,
while we remember that cover against Houston with a two
and a half. He's just been a covering machine. It's
kind of just the way the public is doubting him.
So the key number year seven and a half. I've
seen a couple of books already touch seven, shop around,

(29:35):
get that seven and a half. I'm starting to really
love this matchup, not just because of this offensive line,
how they match up this Detroit team, but not not
that we have major questions about this Detroit offense, but
it kind of feels like they are due for some regression, right.
It just they can't keep being this high powered offense

(29:56):
every week. There's gonna be teams that aren't going to
give them problems. And you know, I don't know if
Gus Bradley's the guy defensively that's going to figure out
how to shut down Jared Golf totally on this offense,
but I think he won out ways to keep this close.
He's a veteran DC. He knows how to go against
veteran quarterbacks. So yeah, Chat, I really had a tough
time with this one talking to people reading Evans article.

(30:18):
It's like, Okay, I feel a little bit more confident
now putting this one in, just because I know the
numbers do back up taking the seven and a half.

Speaker 3 (30:24):
So look, matchup point of view and number wise, this
hits our ven diagram.

Speaker 2 (30:30):
We love.

Speaker 1 (30:31):
We have talked about it all year. It's why we've
been back in the Colts. We like their ability to
run the ball for two reasons. One, it allows them
to control the clock, lower the scoring, keep games closer,
but also it's a way for them to wear down
the opposing defense and able to work on the play action.

(30:52):
And Anthony Richardson he was really good last week. Like
you know, he completed a high percentage of his passes.
He didn't make the same mistake. It was impressive and
it's not like the Lions get pressure, so he shouldn't
feel like he's going to be forced into making bad
decisions as long as he sticks to the game plan
that Shane Steichen is putting in front of him.

Speaker 3 (31:13):
So we like that.

Speaker 1 (31:15):
Matchup wise, we also like Jared Goff playing against his
zone where he's just his numbers are significantly lower than
when he's playing against Man, when he's nearly perfect and
the Colts play more zone than anybody else you've wrenched
you've referenced Evans numbers Since twenty fifteen, teams after winning

(31:37):
by thirty five points twenty three, thirty four and one
against the spread. When they are favored by more than
four points, that number goes down twenty three thirty seven
against the spreads. In two thousand and three, teams who
are road favorites after being a double digit fi in

(32:00):
any location road or away, a road or home have
had struggles against the spread over the past decade, just
forty three percent against the spread the following week the
past decade, last one from Evan.

Speaker 3 (32:18):
In November or later.

Speaker 1 (32:19):
Since two thousand and three, there have been forty games
where a team is averaging thirty three plus points per
game with a ninety plus win percentage. Those teams are
thirty two percent against the spread in their next game,
including four sixteen and one twenty five percent coming off

(32:42):
of a double digit win. So, all of a sudden,
we've got matchup ban trends that are making us feel
a lot better about the Indianapolis Colts.

Speaker 2 (32:50):
Yeah, and we have good reason to be scared of
Detroit team, right, so does everyone else that's betting this number.
But it's really all about what you just said, trusting
the number, trusting the mats, and then trusting the true runs.
It's like, this is an unusual spot where you kind
of need to back it. And I feel bad for
your Bear's team up next week for that Thanksgiving game
because it feels like we're gonna to probably throw this
one the money line around Robin. We're hoping for the

(33:12):
upset if they do. Man, are they going to take
it all out on that Bears team on Thanksgiving?

Speaker 3 (33:18):
Listen.

Speaker 1 (33:18):
I got to drive to Staten Island on Thanksgiving Day
to help my mother in law pack up a house
she's lived in for fifty six years because she's moving.
I am looking for That's how much I don't want
to watch the Bears Lions game is I will spend
the majority of that game going through boxes in a

(33:42):
garage that have not been touched in fifty six years.
That's what I'm choosing to do.

Speaker 2 (33:49):
Oh man, what a terrible day.

Speaker 3 (33:51):
Simon.

Speaker 1 (33:52):
The NFL regular season stretch run is here. This year,
give a gift that helps your loved ones stretch and rot.
The Gift of Tommy John. Black Friday is next week.
We need to start thinking about the people on our
holiday gift lists, the men and women we love, those
who deserve the perfect gift and the confidence that comes

(34:15):
only when you're fully supported. I feel fully supported under
two circumstances, when I'm with you, Simon, and when I'm
wearing my Tommy John underwear. Simon, My brother, why will
you be giving the gift of Tommy John this season?

Speaker 2 (34:33):
Pretty simple, chat, It's a gift that last.

Speaker 1 (34:35):
You nailed it, brother. This Black Friday sales has begun,
so if you're looking to score your gifts early, go
to Tommy John dot com slash favorites for thirty percent
off right now, save thirty percent site wide for Black
Friday at Tommy john dot com slash favorites. That's thirty
percent off for a limited time at Tommy John dot

(34:59):
com slash favorites. Okay, we touched on San Francisco at
Green Bay. I'm still seeing twos out there. It has
ticked down a bit from two and a half to two,
and I think they started moving in the Niners direction
yesterday after practice. It got down to one and a
half at some of the more public books, but I
am seeing twos. I think we're both feeling a lot

(35:21):
better about San Francisco right now.

Speaker 2 (35:23):
Yeah. I thought pretty was really hurt because, like I said,
he's just such a tough guy. I just he never
misses practices. And I was like, okay, if he's if
he's going to miss a practice, this has to be
a really serious shoulder injury. He was back out there
last week, I mean yesterday, and he was passing like that.
I know it said online it so it was limited.
But the fact that he's throwing and it's it's that shoulder,

(35:43):
that's a big deal. Like it clearly there might be
some discomfort there, but at least he's out there. And
then we saw the big news that Kittle guaranteed pretty
much that he'll be back for this game. We know
how Porty is to that offense, not just as a
rum blocker, for everything else that brings to that team.
So yeah, this is I feel like we both agree
on them. We just think the forty nine ers, as
bad as they've been, I still trust them more right

(36:06):
now than this Green Bay team, Like there's just something
off with this Green Bay team. And at the end
of the day, it's like we were gonna bet Green
Bay just because there's gonna be no party. Now that
we know will be back, it's like, Okay, this is
a good matchup for a really desperate team from the
forty nine ers. And on the flip side, everything just
feels a little off with this Green Bay team this season,

(36:26):
right even their defense, they've been heavy reliant on turnovers.
Without turnovers, they're just not that good of a defense.
We've kind of seen a play out this season. So
Shanahan Evan had a great stat about him after losses
in these kind of spots, like he tends to bounce back.
You know, this is really about the number as well,
Like you just said, you're still able to get two
maybe for luck at our contest, we can get two

(36:47):
and a half. That's such a great number in this
matchup that just feels like it's gonna be really close,
down to the wire type of games. So the public,
they're coming in heavy on this forty nine Ers team,
which is not shocking. I think most I think in
the same way as me. So you know, we got
away with the last week been the public dog, maybe
we'll get away with it this week.

Speaker 3 (37:06):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (37:06):
Look, we have had a hard time finding significant edges
in this game because both teams have sort of not
been able to be consistent and finished in the way
we think they should finish, right, Obviously, we think the
Niners should have blown out the Seahawks last week. They
should have blown the doors off the place in Tampa.

(37:30):
And in both games they've really struggled. They've had a
hard time all season long. They've had weird quirkiness. The
losing their kicker. I think it was against the Cardinals
that kept them from kicking field goals and that led
to a fumble that lost them that game. It's just
a lot of injury, bad luck. This is the biggest

(37:51):
luck rankings game of the week. This is a really
no bigger difference between luck factors than the Niners, who
are basically at the bottom of their ens and the Packers,
who were at the top. So when I saw that
come out yesterday from Doctor Nick, I felt a lot
more comfortable about about taking the Niners.

Speaker 3 (38:10):
So that sort of put it over the edge for me.

Speaker 2 (38:12):
Yeah, and it's a rare opportunity this is the first
game I think in perty's a regular season career. I
can remember him being an underdog. I know when he
played the Eagles, he was underdog in the playoffs when
he got hurt, but Purdy, the books ever respected him
his whole career. I mean, I'll never forget when he
first came in me and Chad. I had to beg
Chad to take him against Arizona. I think he was

(38:32):
a minus four and a half favorite and we were
just like I get with Chad's covery. He's like, I'm
unsure about It's like, no, we just played this spot.
I think they rolled him in that first game, and
then it's just been on the roll since then. So
big deal. The fact that the books had made this
dog and Chad knows. I viewed this that this was
gonna flip just because of that, Like I thought the
pub would come in, the books would respect it, and
they would move it to being him being a favorite

(38:54):
by Sunday. Still could happen. So it's another thing where
it's like I want to play some number because I
could still see this flipping once we know all the
guys are healthy for this forty nine ers team. So yeah, chat.
I'm right there with you. If you can grab the
two right now, I'd grab it.

Speaker 3 (39:08):
This is a little bit of foreshadowing. I just wonder
if it's worth playing the money line, Like.

Speaker 1 (39:13):
If it's already down to it by the time we
get off the show, which is live, and these numbers
move fast when we're talking. If it's at one and
a half or one, I might just play the Niners
on the money line. That's fair Arizona. At Seattle, this
game has gone crazy like a kid at a bouncy house.
Cars plus one, cars minus one. Cars plus one now

(39:34):
is minus one again. You mentioned it in sharp calls.
This was a Sunday play for us. We bet the
Cardinals a plus one and a half. You said you
saw it at two some places. This was my exac decision.
I believe you like it too.

Speaker 3 (39:47):
Do we like it enough to make it when of
our final five?

Speaker 2 (39:52):
Yeah, honestly, I thought I would break on this one, Chat,
I really did. I thought I would make it so
we wouldn't take this one. Evan had something amazing in
his article that I know you had to have seen it.
So Gino Smith we talked about his struggles this year,
especially at home in his career. So since the beginning
of last season, Gino Smith is three ten ats at home,

(40:14):
the worst mark of any quarterback in football. Did you
see who his three covers were against? It was against
Skyler Thompson, Josh Dobbs and Andy Dalton. Yeah, what are
we doing here? Can we not overthink this one for
once in our lives? No, we're just there. I know,
we got to live with the consequences. It sucks because
we both have a little weird feeling about this Arizona
when it feels too easy, a little little trappish.

Speaker 1 (40:36):
But yeah, once I saw that, It's just like when
we were got in Cleveland as a dog. They end
up as the favorite and we still take them because
we feel like we're getting, you know, a good number
at plus half a point. That's honestly, that's what's in
the back of my head right now. And they were
coming off a bye.

Speaker 3 (40:52):
Are you kidding me? I know.

Speaker 2 (40:54):
So it's just it really is to me about this
Arizona team's been a cent They've been playing so well.
It would burn us right if they had a let
down game here. But I think Gino is gonna make
it so we're not gonna have a letdown game. He's
just been horrible at home. He just does not live
up to the moments at home, and that's reflective of
this season. They're one to five against the spread at
home this season. Like, that's not the Seahawks we're used to,

(41:17):
I mean the last twenty years. Yeah, you could always
count on them, as bad as they would go through
their up and downs, You could always count on them
at home. Those days are long gone. So yeah, chah,
maybe we're walking into it. Maybe there's other games you
like more. This won't be one of our five. But
as we city here right now, it's like, if we
have to force one in, I'm okay with us putting Ariazon,
even though it is a little fishy here. It's just like, man,

(41:38):
you can't deny that this guy struggled against good quarterbacks.
And as much as people want to deny it, Kyler
Murray is playing like a top five, top six quarterback
right now, like he has been balling out. So yeah,
just feels like a nice number in a nice spot.

Speaker 1 (41:53):
Well, look, we have five games on the list right now,
and I know we don't want to put the Titans
on there, but we like the Panthers, Titans, Colts, San Francisco.

Speaker 3 (42:04):
Arizona the last game.

Speaker 1 (42:08):
We have two more games to discuss and the Philadelphia
at the Rams. The Rams are three point dogs. This
has been bouncing around. I love the Eagles here and
you love the Rams and this was your Simon says,
and I just don't get it. Like this Eagles defense

(42:29):
is legit. They've gone from twenty seventh in the league
in EPA allowed to number one the past since Week five,
like they have a really good defensive secondary. The Rams
have been entirely inconsistent. We have been on the Rams
the past three weeks. I feel like we've gotten away
with it. Last week we got burned the week before.

(42:52):
They make too many mistakes. Something is inconsistent about the
way they're playing this offense. I don't think they'll be
able to run the ball as effectively as they had
been able to do.

Speaker 3 (43:01):
That opens up their passing game.

Speaker 1 (43:04):
I I just don't get. I don't get why the
Eagles aren't to play here. I'm surprised that you're not
with me on this.

Speaker 2 (43:12):
Been around the block, Chad, been around a long time
to know better than the step into this trap. This
is a fishy game with a fishy line. I just
think people are undervaluing this Rams team while they're overvaluing
this Eagles team. Now, Chad says that this tam has
turned it around. Okay, let's start from the top. They
lost sixteen to thirty three to Tampa, this Eagles team.

(43:33):
Then they went on a bye a week and we
all agree, whatever happened with fangs in that defense, all
these young guys, they've they've been better since that bye week.
They came out, they beat Cleveland twenty to sixteen. They
didn't cover. You know, that was a game they easually
could have lost. Next week, they blow out the Giants, Okay,
earn that win. Next week they dominate that Cincinnati team.
That's another game we respect. They deserve that win. Then

(43:55):
they had that weird game with the Jaguars, which they
almost lost once again. That's what I'm trying to make
a point here of like they're up and down. They're
inconsistent this team this season. And then Dallas once again
they blew them out. And then Washington that was kind
of a felt like a lucky game to them, right.
Jane Daniels, he just was not himself in that game.
Was not hitting throws that guys were open, Like he

(44:16):
had guys open. He just was not making the throws
against that Eagles team. So as good as this Eagles
team has been, I don't think they're not the lines
Like this is not some juggernaut team that doesn't have
some major issues like this to me is a team
that has been fortunate, a little bit unlucky, and just
overrated right now, like this should be a pick. This

(44:38):
is the numbers just moved too much to me. That's
why I don't like it. Where Sunday night, I was
blind to it because I kind of had the same
thought of you of, like this Eagles team is way better,
Like they're better in this RAMS team. They are consistent offensively,
they actually have guys that can get stops defensively. But
then when you really look at it, it's like, you
know what, this RAMS team is not that bad, Like

(44:58):
they're just in my mind they're just like this Eagles team.
I mean you could say they don't have the big
names on defense, They've drafted really well, like these last
couple of drafts have been great for this Rams. Yeah,
that D line is actually pretty good, and you know
this matchup to me, is gonna come down to the quarterbacks.
And I don't trust Hurts right now, Chad. I'll be honest.

(45:20):
I just there's just something a little off about him
right now. So with me, this rams teme in this moment,
I looked at Evans trends didn't make me too confident.
Like I've seen Stafford has actually struggled as an underdog,
especially since he's been in LA. But I don't know
if you saw how bad Hurts has been in night
games on the road. He has not been good in

(45:40):
his career on the road in these night games. So
this is really about me trust the numbers, trusting the
sports book, and this is why they're all these tall
buildings build in Las Vegas, Chad, Like, this is the
definition of a trap game on something that's.

Speaker 3 (45:52):
The worst fucking cliche.

Speaker 1 (45:55):
That's like what they say, that's what old people like
me say. That's not a bang in frame.

Speaker 2 (46:00):
I've thirty times this week about this game. It's the truth.

Speaker 3 (46:04):
It gives me confidence.

Speaker 2 (46:05):
Everyone's gonna be coming in with their grandma trying to
get fat and rich off this Eagles team on Sunday night,
and they're gonna lose. This is such a bad chase
spot for the general public.

Speaker 1 (46:13):
All right, look, I owe you one because we put
Cleveland in last week and you wanted to put the
Chargers and that was the difference between three and two
and four and one for us. So if you're going
to feel strongly about it, I have already bet the
Eagles aggressively here. And so if I'm going to have
to eat one and you feel a lot better about

(46:37):
the Rams than any other games, then we're probably gonna
have to put it in because that might be the
last option because the only other one on the list
that you know is playable is Tennessee.

Speaker 3 (46:48):
Of the games that like.

Speaker 2 (46:49):
Another not you love Tennessee. I'm not That's what I'm saying.

Speaker 3 (46:53):
I was just, dude, I was just going to say
the only other game that like, I know you.

Speaker 2 (46:58):
Keep saying their name, though, stop saying to see.

Speaker 3 (47:01):
What is it like? Not Marvin Harris like that. We
quasi agree on that.

Speaker 1 (47:06):
I that like, if there were no other options you
would be comfortable going with is Tennessee, which means you
like the Rams, which means our five are gonna end
up being the Panthers, the Colts, the Niners, the Cardinals,
and the Rams, and I'm gonna have to bet against
myself because I've already aggressively bet with real.

Speaker 3 (47:27):
Dollars on the E which is fine.

Speaker 2 (47:29):
I'm sorry, I'm.

Speaker 3 (47:30):
Willing to eat it. I'm gonna eat it. It's fine.
Do we want to say anything about the Chargers and
the Ravens. I feel like I could go either way
on this. I kind of like the Chargers.

Speaker 1 (47:42):
I wanted to be at three and a half, but
I don't know that I like the Chargers better than Panthers, Colts,
Niners are Cardinals, and I definitely don't think you like
the Chargers better than you like the Rams.

Speaker 2 (47:54):
No, it sucks. I wanted to be on the Charger
as well, but at two and a half, it's like,
I feel like that's where the is in the Ravens
with the general public. But yeah, this is this feels
like a game that maybe there's something I'm missing here
because it's It's also like I don't really understand the
movement here. I don't know why this numbers come down
so which I get why the professionals are on the

(48:15):
Chargers at plus three. I just don't know why the
books have moved off the plus three. It's just been
all Ravens money. So maybe I'll just stay away from it,
or maybe ill end up betting the Chargers once once
it comes Monday night of the plus three. But yeah,
I don't know. That's this is just a weird week
where like I love all the primetime dogs and that's
that's really works out for me. So, uh, this is

(48:38):
either going to be a really really bad week for
the general public orm actually I'm gonna get absolutely slaughtered.

Speaker 3 (48:43):
No, it's not.

Speaker 1 (48:44):
You know why because the first thing you said on
Sunday again, I remember everything you ever say. You said
this upcoming week is going to be a bad week
for the public. You said you love the lines.

Speaker 2 (48:57):
It feels that way, you love the games.

Speaker 1 (48:59):
I was having a hard time. You gave me some confidence.
By the time I got to Wednesday afternoon again, like
two or three in the afternoon, I'm like, you know what,
some ugly numbers here, But that's an opportunity for us.
We are we are sussing out the opportunity.

Speaker 2 (49:15):
Now we need a favorite. Chad. What's what's going on
with the Broncos? How do you feel about the Broncos
five and a half?

Speaker 1 (49:20):
It feels that feels trappy to me. Like, I know
you're saying wise guys like it, but it's a vision game.
The Raiders keep finding ways to stick around and then
blow it. But what if there's a week where they
don't blow it? Right?

Speaker 2 (49:33):
And so that's a big what if? Yeah, I and
I just you know, I just you love dogs like
you're also scared of Timy DeVito. Something's wrong in your
brain where you're like, I think Timy Vito might be
better for the Giants, And what fucking world is Timmy
DeVito better.

Speaker 3 (49:46):
For the I want to I want to hammer the
Giants and plus.

Speaker 4 (49:52):
I just do.

Speaker 3 (49:55):
I mean, we have a favorite, we have the Cardinals.

Speaker 2 (49:59):
Depends on your shock and that is true because there's
still a bunch of plus ones out there.

Speaker 4 (50:03):
Right.

Speaker 1 (50:03):
You know what I'm gonna do. Let's put the Broncos
on there. You and I will have to sort of
narrow it down, and it might it might end up
being on Sunday. We want to move things around. I
don't think the Broncos are in our final five right now.
I think the final five is probably Panthers, Colts, Niners, Cards.

Speaker 3 (50:20):
And rams.

Speaker 2 (50:23):
A What a five? What a five?

Speaker 1 (50:26):
Unbelievable. Our big balls is the Colts. Our foxhole is
the Panthers. Are boosted money line underdog parlay. Each week
we give out a two team money line dog parlay.
Bet three six five is gonna boost those odds and
highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.

Speaker 3 (50:45):
Remember, both games are eligible for Bet three six five's early.

Speaker 1 (50:49):
Payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked as
a win if either team takes a seventeen point lead,
even if they lose. If you want to bet this
bet at bet three six five, the boost did parlay
forty nine ers in RAMS feel like I'm getting bullied.

Speaker 2 (51:06):
He just undressed him all the way around. Look at that.
He just got it handed too.

Speaker 1 (51:11):
It forty nine Ers and Rams find the Boost under
either the forty nine Ers or RAMS game pages. I'm
bet three six five. A reminder quick programming note. Next
week is Thanksgiving. We do not do a thanks a
Thursday episode on Thanksgiving. Obviously, I won't be around because
I'll be packing up my mother in law's house in
Staten Island. We will not have our normal Thursday episode.

(51:35):
As this tradition, Simon and I will pack everything all
of our picks, all of our segments, the one Mega
spectacular episode on Tuesday.

Speaker 3 (51:47):
At our normal time, Simon, what is our money line?
Underdog round Robin.

Speaker 2 (51:56):
Well, come up payday, halleluya. Wanta pay day. I will
come up payday some day. Some day I will come
up pay day, Yo, payday. I will come up payday
some day.

Speaker 3 (52:12):
Here were my suggestions? Are you ready?

Speaker 2 (52:15):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (52:16):
Uh?

Speaker 3 (52:16):
San Francisco, the Colts love it? Chicago?

Speaker 2 (52:25):
What else you got?

Speaker 3 (52:26):
Rams love it? New England love it?

Speaker 1 (52:31):
Oh?

Speaker 2 (52:32):
No way, yeah, why not? I love I love them.
They're big numbers like that, all right, Well, I just
gave you four, So give me one plus three ten
paired with the Colts plus three twenty. It's those hit.
That's a great that's it.

Speaker 3 (52:44):
That's a Thanksgiving miracle right there. So give me one.

Speaker 2 (52:48):
Then I got damn Cardinals are minus one o eight.
So I guess we can't do Cardono.

Speaker 3 (52:52):
Yes, New England, San Francisco, Indy so far, and I.

Speaker 2 (52:57):
Mean, unfortunately, I guess we can't do Browns because it's
too not enough listeners will hear it? Yeah, because that
would definitely be a nice I go, I'm gonna personally
throw that one in. I mean, the only other one
I can think of for us is the Chargers. They're
plus one fifteen. I guess we kind of have to.
It's a tough week right now for the Dogs. So yeah,
I'll take that number.

Speaker 3 (53:14):
How about your biggest bets early here?

Speaker 2 (53:18):
Definitely Rams plus three, Chargers plus three, you know for
these big dogs getting pretty heavy at this point on
this Colts team, this Panthers team. So I would say
as we sit here right now, my biggest bet is
definitely that Rams in the forty nine ers, where if
you can get to two to me, that's a big
deal of this forty nine Ers team. I just I've
been hitting this number just because I do think it's
gonna flip. You know, that's not to my biggest year,

(53:40):
that four hours one. So yeah, the Colts one comes Sunday.
That or the Rams. Why not be my biggest bet
when all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
Let's play Scots Roulette.

Speaker 3 (53:57):
Simon, guess who won Scoot roulettel week?

Speaker 2 (54:00):
Did you?

Speaker 1 (54:01):
He's got two thumbs and he says, banging, I took Detroit,
you took Kansas City. I'm going with the indieplis quotes
and Scoot Roulett.

Speaker 2 (54:11):
I'll go the Rams just because Chad likes the Eagles
so much.

Speaker 1 (54:14):
I was gonna take the Eagles, and like, I just
couldn't do it to myself to have him in the
contest and have to reform for Scooch Roulett and have
bet on him. All Right, before we get out of here,
let's bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams, the
man we reference. So we should start setting a line
on how often we reference Evan Abrams in our show.
Maybe Matt Mitchell can set that. Take it away, Evan

(54:36):
the last word. With Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

Speaker 4 (54:42):
Yeah, that was a really good segue to this. So
let's head into this. Things can only go so right
for so long. Teams to score twenty four plus points
in five straight games and are listed as a favorite
are just forty five percent against the spread since two
thousand and three, when they've also won all five of
those games, it's down to forty two. Yes that includes Detroit,

(55:02):
who is forty one and fifteen against the sprint over
the last three years. And yes that also includes Philadelphia,
who is seven to oh straight up with aj Brown,
this year scoring thirty points per game, you could say
Detroit and Philly are pretty much banging right now going
into the next one here Carolina, and I know you
guys are all over this, so I had to kind
of split this up and give you a different angle

(55:25):
on it. So Patrick Mahomes has started forty four games
as a road favorite in his career. When the home
team scores less than twenty, he's eleven zho and two
against the spread. As a road favorite, when they score
twenty or more, he is just nine and twenty two
against the spread. This bet is just about how many
points can Bryce YOUWNG get on the board depending on

(55:45):
the entire game. If he scores you know, one touchdown,
two touchdown, Mahome's going to cover the game. So you
might want to look into the team total in Carolina.
That's another angle to kind of play there. And Chad,
you had mentioned the Caleb Williams sack stats. Well, I
found a little bit more of a simpler one. It
kind of says the same story. So at this point,
a bet on Chicago is a bet on their offensive line.

(56:07):
It's just as simple as that. When Caleb gets sacked
four plus times, they are zero to four straight up,
scoring forty one points in four total games three or
less sacks. They're four and two straight up. More importantly,
they're averaging twenty six point two points per game and
scoring twenty plus and five of those six games Ibra
Fluss face to Flores defense twice. Chicago has scored twenty

(56:30):
five total points in those games, eight combined sacks. So
it just depends on how Caleb can do in this one.
But it's all about the sacks. That is a great stat.

Speaker 1 (56:39):
If there maybe we should be betting a sacks prop
in that game and avoiding avoiding the number altogether. Thank you,
Evan Abrams. I think you're spot on when you reference
the Detroit trends. I think you're pretty often you're reference
in the contexts of Philadelphia. As a reminder, The Favorite
podcast is presented by Bet three six y five and

(56:59):
now new Bet three six five. Customers get one hundred
and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,
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(57:21):
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(57:45):
party Q and A with Me and Simon in December twelfth,
Wicked Wolf in Philly. Come join us sweat the Thursday
night football game. RSVP is in the episode description for
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on the Action Network YouTube page. Sunday night, seven thirty

(58:07):
pm Eastern to recap week twelve. Downloads some Spotify Apple
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Speaker 3 (58:15):
Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time,
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Speaker 1 (58:32):
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