November 24, 2024 • 47 mins
After one of the wildest witching hours in early slate history, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter come together to discuss all things betting as the dust settles on NFL Week 12. Together they talk about a beautiful Carolina cover, another deflating 49ers defeat, a Tennessee rollercoaster and so much more. We get a recap of all their weekly picks, good and bad, as they take accountability before Sunday Night Football kicks off in Los Angeles. Plus, we get their early looks at Feast Week matchups.
To RSVP for the FREE Favorites Podcast LIVE event in downtown Philadelphia on December 12th, follow this link now!
And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network,
live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad
Milman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night episode.
We will review the faves five picks we put into
the contest, dissect why we left some of them out,
(00:31):
preview the early lines for week thirteen, Man thirteenteen. I'm
joined as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
my BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter Ella Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Yeah, what a day, crazy day of football.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Wacky, wild head spinning, heart attack and heart attack inducing,
stomach churning slates of early games and somehow from the
contest point of view, were not really impacted by any
of them. In fact, for the second week in a row,
(01:08):
we only played two of the four games that were
typically obvious plays for us that we tend to love.
Three of those games, one only loss was the one
that we played, just like Buffalo last week. The only
loss was the one that we played, and when I
(01:28):
say Buffalo, I mean Kansas City losing to Buffalo. We
did find a teeny, teeny tiny bit of redemption with
one of our favorite teams to bet. We will get
to all of that and more. Cliffhanger right there, simon.
Catch every episode of the Favorites on YouTube. For those
(01:49):
who joined on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like,
subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page as a reminder.
The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
and now new Bet three six five. Customers one hundred
and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,
sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place
a bet for five dollars, get one hundred and fifty
in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
(02:12):
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never
ordinary at Bet three six five. Must be twenty one
or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
(02:34):
restrictions apply we are two and two heading into the
Sunday night game. We are on the Rams at plus
two and a half. This is a strictly Simon bet.
Last week, the Browns were a strictly Chad bet. It
did not work. This week, we are on a strictly
(02:56):
Simon bet. I hope it works. I'd like to be
three and two. I'm willing to lose my Eagles bet
that has actual dollars on it because I know how
much you want the Rams and I'd like us to
be three and two this week.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
You're literally a crazy person.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
I love that every time you mentioned this, you're like
it's because of the Browns last week. No, I would
have made this bet before stin regardless of the Browns
covered last week or if they didn't.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I loved at your reference point. But uh yeah, we
need it.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
We need it for a winning week. And you know
we talked this morning. I was open to take it
out just because it's a bad number. Like we said,
there's threes out there. I'd feel more confident if we
had a three three and a half, but luckily we
didn't because I think we talked about either putting the
Patriots or the Bears in there, which obviously the Bears
would have been epic for us, but Patriots woo. That
(03:47):
would have been painful if we had put that one in.
So yeah, I'm happy with two and two right now.
I don't know about you.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
I feel great about two and two, and I feel
great especially because I think we got a little bit lucky.
And we'll talk about it. Let's talk about the game.
We loved the most. One of the big dogs in
the early slate that just could not get it done.
We had Indianapolis plus seven and a half against Detroit
in Indie and like we were all over it. We
(04:16):
loved it. We've been super impressed with stich In. We've
been super impressed with the Colts. We like their running game.
We thought this could be not a letdown spot because
we've said it this all year. Physical travels and the
Lions are a very physical team. But we liked a
little bit of the matchup, so we thought we were
getting a good number, good matchup, elite unit on the
(04:39):
right side of the ball for the Colts. And like
the first half, it was so tantalizing. I don't know
how you felt about it, but the Colts got field
goals the lines got touchdowns, and you just felt like
they need they need, they need one or play one
(05:01):
more play to put themselves in a position to be
able to be competitive in this game.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
It felt like what you just said that that to
me is the basicial.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
But one team could run the ball today and Detroit
and one team could not run the ball. And Jonathan
Taylor he just did not show up today. He did
nothing for us. And I'll be honest, when they kicked
that field goal to start the game, I instantly regretted
making one.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Of my biggest bets of the day.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
I don't know about you, but I was like, why
is this a huge bet for me today? Because I
load it up on I love the spot, love the number,
and you know, like we keep saying Detroit breaks a
lot of these rules, and I keep going against them
a certain spots and it's like what am I doing? Like,
you can't you can't kick field goals against Detroit, especially
when you're in the red zone, you know, a couple
(05:43):
of yards out.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
It's just Detroit's gonna get theirs.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
And their defense played well, like Detroit put up what
twenty four points? Yeah, even though it sounds like a
lot of points. That's that's pretty good when you go
up against this juggern Ivan offense that Detroit has, and
uh yeah, their run game is just something special on
their defense show, but they're just a complete team right now.
Detroit with the Colts, like you said, it was competitive.
Game was fourteen six. You know, a couple things kind
(06:08):
of broke our away and that would have been a
much closer half, But that second half it was just
all Detroit. They made the right adjustments. Richardson could not
do a single thing in that second half. At one point,
I think it was nine for twenty four passing. So yeah,
rolled all the good we saw in the Jets game
kind of went out the window. He just was not
connecting with his guys day the guys open too, which
(06:28):
was brutal but bad read bad bet and we we
haven't learned our lesson here with this Detroit team. But
maybe we'll see this upcoming week. I think I'll be
able to get you on Detroit side.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
It's going to make a trick. I've already flagged that
game for the week thirteen lines we're looking at, and
you know, we'll obviously talk about it a lot on
the favorites Anthony Richardson. You just mentioned how badly he played,
completed just thirty nine percent of his passes. Yeah, the
Lions two good, good, too, physical, too well coached right.
(07:04):
Five penalties for the Lions, ten for the Colts. Lions
three for four in the red zone, Colts zero for two.
A boring game, poorly played, completely disappointing. That's that's how
I look at this game.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
Yeah, like I said, though he had opportunities, you were
right though, he was just an accurate It's like, you know,
I mean, we know what you're doing when we bet him,
but it's just brittal because he was running the ball
so well. Start that game and it's like, okay, we're
moving the ball here against Detroit, and then he just
completely folded on himself. I don't know whatever happened that
second half. He just was not the same guy as
(07:41):
he was in the first half. They just had no
rhythm to that offense. So yeah, like I said, that
just Detroit right now, they're just a complete team, and
they're they're they're not just beating these teams like they're
destroying them.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Like that was another double digit win. This is crazy.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
They're destroying them, and I feel like they're mentally breaking
them sometimes. Yeah, Like think look back a few weeks
ago they played the Vikings, the Vikings were killing them.
The Lions come back. Sam Darnold for the next three
or four weeks was a different player, and like they
just it's like they're so freaking physical, they're so hard
(08:16):
to play. I think it really wears you down. And
we saw that. We saw that with the Colts tam.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
And they know exactly where they are.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
They're like, they're running it on thirty eight and it's
a smart read, like you know golf. He's just got
the confidence of the line that he'll he'll adjust, he'll
see be like, all right, they're dropping back on thirty eight.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
I'll just run it here.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
And they're picking up you know, ten yards in that
carry like and that one two punch of Gibbs Montgomery. Man,
it's it's lethal right now. So they're just so good.
If you're a fan of their team, obviously you're hoping
they carry into the playoffs because right now, I mean
for this last month, month and a half, they've just
been totally like, by far, the best team in football.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
They're just so complete right.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Now, quick reminder are free free favorites. Podcast watch party
is just weeks away. It's time to are at VP, folks. Thursday,
December twelfth, The Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia, Simon
Hunter's hometown. We're gonna do drinks, free drinks, a live
(09:13):
Q and A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell is
going to be there too. Starts at six, ends at eight.
We're gonna hang out for Thursday Night football, the Rams
and the Niners to URSVP. Check out the link in
the podcast description page or on the YouTube episode description.
Simon and I will tweet it out as well. Space
(09:35):
is limited, RSVPs are pouring in. Don't delay, please get
it done.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
We found something special, man. I felt It's like we're
in here together. Nobody's coming out of that circle. Man.
That's exactly where you want to be right now.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
All right, gether game? Kansas City at Carolina. We had
Carolina plus ten and a half. He ended up pretty
glorious and not very suspensul It ended up looking exactly right,
and us doing the right thing by not being afraid
of what we've seen on the field and what the
(10:10):
situation told us and what the trends told us and
not being afraid that we were going to make our
listeners and our viewers truly hate us for betting on
the Panthers. The Panthers finally, finally, finally looking like the
team we thought they would be to start the year right,
(10:30):
they were just good enough and at time's fantastic and
they found their way and Bryce Young did the right things.
There was a moment, though, I don't know if you
feel the same way, where I was like, oh fudge,
did you ever feel that way?
Speaker 2 (10:51):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (10:51):
I would say the opening touchdown when the guy's wide open,
Noah Gray, and it's like mahomes thrown to wide open guys.
This is not good for me and Chad and then
we had what straight field goals by Carolina, So yeah,
it's this is life betting these bad teams. It just
makes you put your hair out. All the different scenaries
we were right, like, we trusted the number.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
When it came down to it.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
I was kicking myself that we didn't taken the money
line around Robin because that was honestly where I wanted
to put them, but I didn't because I just knew
the fans were so sick of us in our Carolina Love.
That's like, all right, just if we can get them
just to take ten and a half, that would be
a celebration. And yeah, luckily good number. Good bet.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
We always talked about Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
Well, I can't even ballame them for this one, right,
that was really the defense of the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Yeah, they were the ones that really didn't show up
in this game.
Speaker 3 (11:37):
So that was probably the most shocking part of it,
was that me and you joked before it's like Ken
Ken Brayshaw, get us that twenty points threshold because we
saw that stat by Evan, which is just crazy.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Basically, if the team doesn't get to twenty points, then
mahomes the favorite. He's always thirteen to er. Yeah, so.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
You know, we got to it and it's this is
what we thought this Panthers team would be a fun
team on offense. I could spread teams out, run the
ball well and then make teams kind of suck in
and when they do Bryce Bryce Young is very accurate, right,
He's really good on those first second reads. This year
with him was just he has a little bit of pressure.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
He just kept folding.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
He's not athletic enough to run outside the pockets.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
So he's not doing that now. Like in this game,
he was pressured constantly, he was rolling out constantly, he
was throwing out his back foot, and he was dropping
dimes to people like all the way down the field
who are running out routes towards the sideline and he's
got someone literally in his face holding on to him.
(12:41):
And he hit some great throws today.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
Yeah, he got his.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
Confidence back, right, And that's something we talked about where
like he's not as bad as he looked.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
We just don't know if he's a starter in this league.
But we talk all the time.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
You need two to three years really to evaluate these quarterbacks.
That's what's so tough about this where it's like, did
we want to bury him because we just don't think
he has the body. He doesn't have the you know what,
we expect the quarterback to be a big six to
five guy. Yeah, but at the same time, you can
see why he was a top pick, right, Like you
just said, he was making plays that I don't know
about you about Those were a couple of times I
(13:13):
was like freaking out. It's like this kid is just
lofting off his back foot. Yeah, like you said, it
was dropping right, into the guy's buckets. So yeah, great,
great game, great bet, And you know the ten and
a half. That was a little scary in the very
beginning chat, but at the end he.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Never it was never really in debt.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
There was a moment, that's what I want to know
if you were thinking the same thing. So there was
a moment where the leverage point was eleven, right, it
was twenty seven sixteen right, And it was going back
and forth on that and if it was going to
be field goal, field goal, field goal, trading field goals
(13:50):
with the Panthers hoping they might be able to get
to the end zone and cut it a little bit
closer as it gets later, it was going to land
on a bad number for us. We had bet I
had bet the eleven. I don't know if you bet
the eleven and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Yeah, I mean I bet some time and a half,
super right. My main bets were eleven eleven and.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
A half, right. So it got tricky there at the
end because in the contest we had to take this
the Niners out of the contest when Brock Purdy was
announced as not playing, and we put the Packers in
at three and a half, and we'll get to.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
Well, it was the day before. We just did it
just in case because it had been a release yet
you right.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
Right, But what happened was in that window between us
choosing the Niners, we had also chosen the Panthers at
eleven and a half lost, so we lost the eleven
and a half and now we had ten and a half.
So during the game, I'm like, are you freaking kidding
me that we're going to lose the Colts and we're
going to lose the Panthers who we were on the
(14:50):
whole time and we finally got right and we're going
to lose it by half a point and then Marakulo.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
This year has been weird, Chad, The the two and
the three have only really mattered to this year.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Do you agree?
Speaker 3 (15:01):
It feels like all of our bets. The only time
that's really burned us is if it's two or three.
Every other game is either a blowout or the dog wins. Outright,
it's been very bizarre this year where the numbers really
have not mattered. Like we joked today, it was like
Arizona was half a point. I was like, who cares,
there's this ain't this ain't gonna land on half, you know,
so it was just it's been weird like this this year.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
It's just the two and the three have been such.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Key numbers, and me and you talk about that where
it's like we are not you know, we freak out
about the numbers so much because me and you've done
this long enough. We've been burned by that hook on
weird numbers before. But in actuality it just never I
mean this year especially, it just not has not happened
to us. Our numbers have not mattered.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
Fascinating game. The Panthers were nine of thirteen on third
and fourth down conversions combined. Right Bryce Young had three
two great third down completions and really critical moments they
own time of the session. The problem was they just
couldn't stop Patrick Mahomes in the first half. The Chiefs
(16:04):
have fifteen first outs and it was only in the
second half when the Chiefs do what they always do,
they decided to get a little more conservative that the
Panthers defense finally found some success in holding them a
little bit. But then the Chiefs couldn't stop the Panthers,
and so the question becomes like are these Panthers Are
(16:27):
these Panthers a team? That we are starting to believe in.
Will the market catch up. They've got a big number
against division arrival this upcoming week. We're going to talk
about it on the show later. I don't know if
you flagged it. I certainly flagged it, but it definitely
was a game that stood out to me. So I
don't know if there's like an adjustment yet, if this
(16:48):
will make the market change a little bit. Obviously we
were ahead of it. We've liked what they've done the
past couple of weeks. Plus they had to buy it
was a It was a big sort of action bet today.
People were on the Panthers raybound timeked about it and
convinced me. I don't know if you're looking at the
Panthers and you're like, so I have to reevaluate.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
Them, Well, we'll see.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
I mean I have to keep a justing. I told you,
like I had them eight and a half. The number
are sitting on eight until that final touchdown, right, So
it's like fell like got I was, Okay, this is
where this game should be. So we'll see this line
this upcoming week. Maybe the books will finally catch up
to it, but unlikely, right, because I think you're talking
about their matchup where it's like the public is going
to be kind of fading them once again.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
I feel like this upcoming week, the.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Books obviously dominated the Giants and Baker just bald. I
don't know if did you watch any of that game?
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (17:36):
I love watching him play.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Yeah, him throwing the block down field, all of it.
He's just hilarious.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
He gives no fox like that is why his teammates
love him so much. He is amazing to watch. And
that Giants team, they just they just quit San Francisco
at Green Bay. So this was like the pivot game,
the leverage game for us because we heard brock Purty
was going to be out, all those rumors were happening.
(18:03):
We wanted to get them out of the contest. We
immediately flipped a Green Bay. We had Green Bay three
and a half, and that was the game that made
us take the Panthers at ten and a half. I got, like,
I don't think we loved the Packers at three and
a half? Did we?
Speaker 2 (18:23):
I did?
Speaker 3 (18:23):
I get why you didn't trust it though, because we
just this isn't the type of spot we bet. We
like bet in the backups with a big number, So
like I get to you was a little foreign, but
I don't know if it was Tennessee you said, whoever
it was in our texting to put them in. I'm like,
can we just for ones, take the fucking easy bet
and just take green Bay here? And it was just
like I was like, Chad, if someone was like, yeah,
(18:44):
you can climb Mount ever so without without oxygen or
with oxygen, Chad goes, let's do without oxygen. Huh, it'd
be better without oxygen. So yeah, thank god we put
green Bay in it. Just even up to six and
a half, I would have been like, you know what,
probably can take this like it just we already out
of that forty nine ers team. Then coming in they
had you know, a bunch of injuries and then no Bosa,
(19:05):
no party. It's like we talked last year there were
stars and scrub team. They're a team that's very top heavy.
You saw today like they're a good offense, right even
when Kittle's in there, he's good, but Debo has not
been making place for them like they need to. And
you know, this kid came in and Alan hung in
there for a little bit, but eventually you saw the
ball start sailing a little bit once you took a
(19:26):
couple of hits, and that's that's how it is. It's
just hard as hell to be consistent for four quarters
in the NFL, Like we joke all the time, there's
what fourteen to fifteen quarterbacks you trust to be consistent
in this league week to week, and he ain't gonna
be one of them.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
So we could have got burned by it. That's what
your hesitation was.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
But my view was just like, let's just play this
number against a backup on a forty nine ers team
that's just having the year from hell. And you saw
it kind of accumulating that game right like they were
kind of getting back into it, and then a little
by little things have just kept going around from once again,
Jordan Love didn't even pay great even though he already
had a bad drop by Watson. You know, there was
a couple of things he didn't do great. It was
(20:04):
just a great run grain, a great run game. And
then their defense for Green Bay, which I feel like
this whole season, their turnovers is what's carried this team
all year.
Speaker 1 (20:14):
Yeah, Xavier McKinny had another interception. Yeah they got I
think they got really lucky. It was twenty four to ten.
Jordan Love head into the fourth quarter, was nine of
nineteen for one hundred and nine yards. At this point
in the game, early in the fourth quarter, they had
just punted, They had only had two first downs in
(20:35):
the second half. They had scored seventeen points early basically
on the strength of Josh Jacobs running over forty nine ers.
They have fifteen misstackles in the early part in the
first half of the game, Josh Jacobs was twelve of those,
and then he left the game for Crimps, and when
he came back in he dominated again. But Jordan Love
was terrible and he's been terrible all season, and that,
(20:59):
to me was my biggest concern. Was all of a sudden,
the number had popped three and a half and we
were on the other side of the hook, and we
were betting on a bad quarterback right now, like a
very inconsistent, as you say, quarterback, there's not a lot
of people can count on. That was to me was
the concern. I didn't have faith he'd be able to
(21:20):
make the plays when we really needed him to, and
he kind of didn't except for that one drop by Watson.
That makes me think about the future obviously they're playing Thanksgiving.
That's another game I flagged. They're playing in Miami, And
I'm gonna want to talk about that with you, because
all of a sudden, I'm concerned about Jordan Love. He's
(21:41):
just had a bad year, just had a really bad year.
Speaker 3 (21:44):
Yeah, and I think you know they talked about during
the broadcast he was leading the league interceptions even though
he missed multiple games this year.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
Yeah, you know.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
Last year the best part of Jordan Love was how
you know the second half of the season, I think
you only had two interceptions or something crazy like that.
And it's like, Okay, this guy's throwing from multiple touchdowns
a game with no interceptions.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
He's a stud. They paid him like one and this
year you've seen it.
Speaker 3 (22:07):
He's regressed to the meeting, right, It's like, yeah, he's
not that guy who's like Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
That Aaron Rodgers was the unicorn.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
We've always talked about that his thirty touchdowns, thirty five
touchdowns and five interceptions.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
It's not gonna happen again. Man.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
Like I was scared because I was like, oh my god,
they might have got another Aaron Rodgers here because he
was just so smart last year with the ball like
anytime he could throw fifty to fifty balls. Last year,
it felt like he put in a position where this
guy would catch it or no one would.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
This year, a lot of his stuff's like over the middle.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
Just bullets like no, you know, no fades in the corner,
like he's trying to like throw through guys, and he's
throwing it right to defend him a couple of times.
So you're right to be hesitant about him right now.
I mean, I got no excuses for him. He's just
been bad this year.
Speaker 1 (22:50):
I do wonder how much the injuries are impacting him
right Like he he has lower body injuries. That impacts
your mobility. I think it impacts your confidence and it
probably impacts your performance in a variety of ways that
you can't really sort of tangibly put your finger on.
(23:11):
But he's clearly not the same player he was last year,
and he hasn't been all year, and he's been injured
all year, so he's probably playing through stuff. He might
be back to his old self next year. This year,
no love, Yeah, this week we have no Thursday episode
or this Thanksgiving. I want everyone to have a fantastic
(23:32):
Thanksgiving I will be packing up my mother in law's
Taten Island. I hope everyone is doing something a lot
more fun than that. As this tradition, we will do
our Thanksgiving mega episode on Tuesday at the usual time
that is one forty five pm Eastern on Tuesday. All
the picks, all of our segments all on Thursday. That's
(23:54):
big Balls, that's the money line, Underdog Round Rob and
that's the boosted parlay, every pick, the box al. It's
all gonna be on Tuesday so we can celebrate Turkey Day.
Last game, Arizona Seattle. Did we get got? Like on this?
Like it felt like they were the Cardinals were just
(24:15):
disinterested in this whole game. Like at one point they
couldn't convert on third downs six straight missed third downs,
fourth and one didn't convert, got lucky with the called
Seattle time out, and then the next play Kyler Murray
rolling out, gonna run for it, decides to pull it
back as a guy wide freaking open, little tiny tear
(24:38):
drop pass. It's gonna be perfect sales on him. Pick six.
Seattle ends up being the game. What happened here?
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Yeah, we got Kyler?
Speaker 3 (24:49):
I mean he just played awful in every aspect you
just talked about, and for some reason they wouldn't commit
to the run even though it was a seven to
three game.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Like, yeah, the whole for half and.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
Yeah, that pick six is kind of like the nail
on the coffin because Gino didn't have it either. I mean,
let's be honest, like he he had be a nice
two minute drill like he always does.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
He didn't and he did like in the same sort
of chaotic, high pressure situations where everyone is running around.
Gino had multiple plays where he got out of the pocket,
found the guy you know, and made the miracle play
That sort of feels like the kick and the dick
(25:33):
that we all have when we're losing these games. And
the rest of the time he's just Gino and he
makes stupid decisions. But it's like those two minutes are cardiac.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
Yeah, Like honestly, like you're describing him, he's great. Between
the thirties. That's where Gino's great. Like you need a
useless yards in the middle of the field, He'll get
you those yards that end zone picky through like inexcusable.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
Just every week it fills with Gino. He has moments like.
Speaker 3 (26:03):
This, but no, it was Kyler. Kyler just totally laid
an egg. I mean, I'm gonna go back and watch
it all twenty two. I know for a fact, you know,
a couple of different options where he just missed wide
open guys in the end zone. And you know it
could because maybe they get a little bit of pressure
in this game where it's like he gets rattled easily,
and when he has that, he just starts feeling like
(26:23):
there's guys around him and there wasn't any sometimes like
he panicked, tried to run out of the pocket too often.
But the biggest issue for me is them abandoned the run.
They just we know Seattle is not great against the run,
and you know, they kind of just moved on from
it right away early in the game, like they just
it didn't work for a little bit and they were
just like, all right, we'll just have Kyler throw it
forty times this game, which was bizarre because like we
(26:45):
just said, it was a close.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
Game all the way to the end. Uh So, yeah,
bad bet bad read.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
He looked bored. Kyler just looked bored and disinterested. You know,
we got a couple of regrets here, so that the
two big dogs that we left out, the big division
dogs that we left out, Titans and Cowboys. Obviously they
both won today, crazy crazy games, And this was you
(27:13):
know you said earlier we trusted the number with the Panthers, Right,
we should have trusted the number with the Titans and
the Cowboys. But both teams have quarterbacks that we do
not trust, and unlike Bryce Young, there's been no evidence
that we should trust them. Right, I'm like trying to
unpack why didn't we just go with them? Like we
knew that we had so many We had such a
(27:33):
long conversation about the Titans, and like the trends worried us,
but then the trends are also there to regress, you know.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
I mean, I think he got sacked eight times and
he threw a pick six.
Speaker 1 (27:48):
He got sacked eight times in the first and like
six times in the first half, and he threw a
pick six to give the Texans the lead. And when
that happened, I was like, honest to god, I was
actually more upset about the games we didn't put in
today than the games we lost, or were more excited
about the games we won. Yeah, And I don't know
if that ever happens to you, but with will Levis
(28:10):
when they went down twenty four to twenty three after
that pick six, I said to myself, I'm so glad
we didn't put this in the contest because it was
ripe for the Texans to run away with that game.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
After Yeah, I mean I felt that a little bit.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
The biggest one I would say was the Bears.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
Like we I had guys in my ear about that
game on Sunday last week.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
We talked about it Sunday night.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
It stayed at three and a half literally all week
until what eleven am.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Yeah today, Yeah, And that's.
Speaker 3 (28:41):
Kind of games that make you sick because like, I
bet it, obviously I know you bet, And it's like
they came back a game we were dead, we were dead,
they were down fourteen with whatever that was five minutes
to go, yeah, and we get that back to recover.
Those are the ones I'm like, damn, I wish we
had that win in because that's just that's so much fun.
I doubt most people listening to our show about that,
just because, like most people, you know, the Brian floor
(29:03):
Is aspect of that game was a little scary with
Kayleb Williams, but.
Speaker 1 (29:06):
That's the reason we didn't we didn't put it in.
I don't think.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
Yeah, and you know, Caleb Williams once again, whatever the
change has happened, you know, I think he went over
already at five scramble study at five rushes like he's
more comfortable running outside the pocket when he needs to,
and he's making big time throws, and you know, he
had a couple of big rookie moments when they really
couldn't afford it, and that overtime they lost it. But yeah,
(29:31):
that was a really fun cover having that gamelin on
a three, just because it's like everything that could have
gone wrong felt go starting going wrong for them, especially
when they had that muff punt.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
You know, they muffed that punt.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
The Lakings score right away, make it from seventeen to
ten game to a twenty four to ten game. It's like, okay,
that's a dead bet, and yeah that that Bears team.
I know you guys have had the wins chat, but
you guys have had hell of an exciting run.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Here these last four or five weeks.
Speaker 3 (29:57):
So uh yeah, painful life being a bet, but silver
lining is it feels like this is what the Lions
went through and they eventually turned it around.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
So maybe this is just the beginning of something special. Chad.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
Yeah, except the Lions had Dan Campbell and we don't
know who. Maybe we'll get Ben Johnson.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
Did you really were you about Dan Campbell when they
had lost nine they started year zero to nine.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
I love Dan Campbell. I was always in. I was
always on the game.
Speaker 3 (30:22):
I thought he was a fucking idiot. I was like,
this is not gonna last once. They're a good team.
Speaker 1 (30:25):
But I was always on the Campbell bandwagon from day one.
Never wavered. My god, man, you guys didn't bat an eye.
I love this freaking team.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
I love the coaches, I love the players, I love
everything about it. Man, we are so freaking hardened even
when she doesn't go the way we wanted to. Man,
you find a way.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
The scariest game that Cowboys Commander's game. Four touchdowns in
the final three minutes. Four and a half minutes left
nine to cover the under clearly it went over. The
Commanders had two missed extra points, the Cowboys had a
(31:01):
special teams touchdown on the on side kick, and then
they had Kevon Turpin with a video game move on
a kickoff, like are you freaking kidding me. That was
I didn't bet the under or that total, but geez Louise,
that was brutal if you did.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
Yeah, I liked the under.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
I like the under just because it was a really
nice spot of Washington off extended rests, playing against a
Cowboys team coming off a Monday night game, and it
was like, Okay, both these teams I think are gonna
be sloppy, unprepared. It was three to three and a half.
I was feeling a really great about that under ticket,
but you just said it. Then football happened and all
these wonky crazy things happened. I think they scored like
(31:45):
you just had twenty eight points in the finals three
minutes of that fourth quarter, something crazy like that. And
uh yeah, Terry McLaurin that Jane Daniels touchdown, you thought, okay,
they'll go for two here, but dan Quinn did his
classic dan Quin thing went for the extra point, and
I'm so happy they missed it because I fucking hate him.
I hate when they do that. It's like, I get it,
(32:07):
your guys might be a little tired because they just
ran the whole field. So was the defense, Like you
can't tell me that's not the spot to go for
two theres. So yeah, if you're a Cowboys fan, what
a great win, Like you didn't think, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
You thought this season was over.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
I think they'd lost five straight up to this point.
You know, Rush had a good game and their defense
showed up, Like you know, Kingsbury, he was the hot
item to start the year, and now I don't know
if they're going to bring him back. Man, it seems
like his offense has been kind of figured out here
down these last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
Well, that's actually one of the reasons why I'm most
disappointed we didn't put the Cowboys in is because we
had a long conversation we identified Jaden daniels struggles the
past five weeks. He's just consistently gotten worse and worse,
to the point where when I mentioned Bo Nicks's Rookie
(32:59):
of the Year, Matt Mitchell wants to fight me. But
Jamee Daniels is just like that Terry McLaurin pass eighty
six yards untouched. That was miraculous. I don't know that
that makes him like any better. He was terrible in
this game. So like we're gonna have to have a
conversation about this. We're gonna have to have a conversation
(33:21):
about Rookie of the Year and his bow Nix in
his last four games doing completion percentage type numbers that
are similar to what Jadon Daniels did in his first
four games, and winning and actually getting better every game
and winning in really challenging spots on the road against
the Raiders who always cover in this spot in the division. Like,
(33:42):
it's going to be a conversation. I want to see
those odds when we get to to Tuesday show. Who
impressed you this week? Because I want to talk about
some of the games.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I mean, you just talk about bow Nicks. I love Denver.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
This week it was a sweat but they covered, and
it's just really about how great their offense and their
defense is playing, about how bad the Raiders have been playing.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
And it literally played out that way right. The Raiders
needed a fake punt.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
In a fifty yard return to kind of have the
lead early on, and Minshew eventually knew, we knew he
was gonna do it.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
He threw a pick, kind of flipped the.
Speaker 3 (34:18):
Whole game right, kind of gave the Denver what they
needed so them in Miami like this Miami team, you know,
to his numbers this year when you dive into it,
he's been like really good, especially since he's come back.
Speaker 1 (34:32):
I know, it's amazing.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
Yeah, they're not playing against the best teams, but at
the same time, he's been putting up the stats and
like their offense is really a humming. And that was
another really terrible read. That New England team. You know,
I'll admit to it. I got sucked in just because
Drake May had such big moments cut last couple of weeks.
He looked totally out of in this game. Yeah, like
(34:54):
totally lost from the get go. So they're definitely a team.
You know, I wouldn't give props and a team that
you were on this week, I should say in Tennessee,
I still know what they are because their defense isn't
good and that was the whole reason you.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Kind of wanted to back them.
Speaker 3 (35:10):
Yeah, I don't know what to make of that team,
even more so now because like we just said, Will
Levis got dominated. But he is so good at pushing
the ball downfield, Like when he's going downfield and then
Pollard can run the ball.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
It just seems like Tennessee can move the ball.
Speaker 3 (35:23):
So they're just another team I really I have no
read on right now because it's like I kind of
wanted to take them this week and now I'm just
thinking to myself, it's like, then we just get away
with one backing on this past week.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
Do we really have to try to back them again?
Speaker 1 (35:35):
Well, here's the good news, Simon. Between Jade and Daniels
and Will Levis and Tennessee and Tua and Jordan Love,
We've talked about so many of the teams that I
wanted to digig on to get on for a week thirteam.
Let's talk about a couple of things giving games quickly. Yeah,
(35:57):
Lions Bears in Detroit. Lions are ten and a half
point favorites right now. How do we not take them?
Speaker 2 (36:04):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (36:04):
And Evan's gonna give us some amazing stats this upcoming week.
But basically we talk every year. Thanksgiving is a very new,
unique day. It's a day where you basically just bet
the favorites. You try not to overthink it just because
historically the favorites cover. It's a weird trend, but it's
panned out over my life as a better It's like
I used to outthink it I used to be like, Okay,
(36:25):
I'm always gonna take the dogs. Usually my theory's it
stands true as day is I take all the favorites
unless it's the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
I always fade the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
Whatever the dog is, I take that dog, especially outright
and on the flip side, I always take the favorites.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
Here we go, Thank you, my man.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
Evan favorites of over ten points are nine to zero
against the spread on Thanksgiving since two thousand and five
eleven and oh against the spreads.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
It's a wildcard era. Wow. So that's what I mean, Like,
you don't you know me? I want to bet that
Bears team.
Speaker 3 (36:54):
I would love to take time and a half fem
But on Thanksgiving you throw that stuff out.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
It's a public holiday.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
Like the books, they let you get fat eating food
and let your wilet's get fat.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
Like, don't overthink it.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
You simply fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and you take
all the other favorites.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
All right, Well that's the second game. So which is
Miami three and a half point dog visiting Green Bay,
Tua who looked amazing And I thought he looked amazing
today and shout out doctor Nick Giffen, who gave out
and convinced me this morning. The Dolphins team total over
twenty seven and a half. They practically covered it in
the first half. Tua, the ball handling, the accuracy, the comfort.
(37:33):
Like I always think back to that scene of Mike
McDaniels when he was flying from San Francisco to Miami
on the private plane. He called to and told him
how good he was going to be in this offense. Yeah,
and he so nailed it. What a difference in this
team when Tua is playing. Kudos to them, but they
(37:55):
are historically terrible against good teams, historically terrible on the
road against good teams. I'm sure Evan has the metrics,
and if he doesn't have him tonight in the chat,
then we'll talk about him on Tuesday. And this is
a This is not a great spot for them. As
much as I don't like Jordan Love, I feel like
we got to take the Packers.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
Yeah, and you just talk a little bit about it.
It's like, this ain't down in Miami. This is gonna
be in what thirty degrees? Maybe I guess it's a
night game, So what twenty degrees at night in Lambeau
there's a reason they're giving you three and a half here, Chad, Yeah,
I agree with your first glance.
Speaker 2 (38:35):
It's like, why is this not two and a half?
Like Green Bay?
Speaker 3 (38:38):
The way these teams have been playing, I know I
wanted to be as I'm with you. I wanted to
be on two of here, but I just broke it down. People,
I don't ever think it. I take the home favorites here.
This is just the way it is. And once again
we're getting a nice, nice line here. So there's a
couple couple threes out there.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
I grab that if you can.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
Right now, I could just see all the books going
to three and a half on this one Black Friday.
Speaker 1 (39:01):
There's four more games I want to discuss quickly, and
then I want to get to the ones you will
just so we.
Speaker 3 (39:04):
Close out Thanksgiving Lions, I just want to talk more
Tuesday Lions, Giants and Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
That's those are my bets right now.
Speaker 1 (39:12):
Wow, Giants love it. Ballsy Ballsy Black Friday Raiders twelve
and a half at Kansas City. I'm taking it off
now because we don't know what's going on with Minshew.
I put it on the script in the script before
we knew what was going on with Minshew. I want
to take the Raiders in that spot. But if I
don't know who the quarterback is, I'm a little bit
more skeptical.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (39:32):
If you have thoughts there, I.
Speaker 3 (39:33):
Agree we're sticking to Oh Man, Minshew done for the season,
broken collar boone, he yikes. So you want me to
take a O'Connell in Kansas City on a short week.
Speaker 1 (39:43):
O'Connell's not going to be playing.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
Oh right, it's ridd Jesus god, oh god.
Speaker 1 (39:51):
That's what I mean. Of course, we want to take
the division.
Speaker 3 (39:57):
To say, if you want to take the Raiders, wait
because if I'm a I like the Chiefs, you gotta
grab the Chiefs right now.
Speaker 2 (40:01):
This is going up.
Speaker 1 (40:02):
Yeah, it's gonna it could get to two touchdowns, and
if it gets two touchdowns, maybe again. But that's really
about how the Chiefs play, not about the Raiders. Right.
We see it week in and week out. The Chiefs
are very conservative in the second half, and they like
to milk the clock. They don't care how much they
win by.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
No, they're they're playing for January.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
Yeah, They're good enough to convert when they need to
and run the clock down. They're very conservative in the
second half. It's how the Panthers stayed in today. All Right,
Pittsburgh plus two and a half at Cincinnati, Mike Tomlin
as a dog in the division on the road. Don't
overthink it, don't overthink it. Don't tell me no.
Speaker 2 (40:48):
We can do it.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
I'm just pissed we don't get the three sons of bitches.
The public is so out on the Bengals now because
you know, if they would have capped off that comeback
against the Chargers pittsburghloss like they did, We're getting three
and a half here, no problem.
Speaker 2 (41:03):
We're getting three and a half on this number. So
I'm with you. I'll take it. But let's hope, let's
hope we get to a three on this one.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
That would be so nice in this matchup, because I
just feel like this is going to be that classic
game comes down to a field goal either side, right,
I mean.
Speaker 1 (41:16):
We're not getting three in this game. It's already down
to two in some places.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (41:21):
No, it makes sense again, the NFC North, they've been
good to us. We've just literally just been betting the
dog in this division. I think they're hitting out like
a sixty percent clip this season.
Speaker 1 (41:29):
So North, all right, I'm gonna throw it at you.
I'm upset we didn't fade Washington this week, and maybe
that's influencing my decision making. I'm upset we didn't play
Tennessee this week. It's almost like the NFL schedule they knew,
they knew come Thanksgiving weekend they were going to have
(41:51):
a game that is going to play with the psyche
of betters in a way that tortures them all through
the week. Tennessee is a seven and a half point
dog at Washington right now. I think Washington's defense it's
not very good. I think Jane Daniels has been struggling.
I think interior pressure causes problems for him. Brian Robinson
(42:15):
got banged up in this game. I don't want to
do it. Tell me not to do it, and tell
me why.
Speaker 2 (42:25):
I would say, dude, if you can get the seven,
because I'm seeing almost all books are down to six.
So seriously, yeah, you're on the professional side right now.
The pros agree with you, which again makes sense.
Speaker 3 (42:36):
We've just talked about like that something's wrong with Washington
right now, but betting Tennessee, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (42:43):
What I'm betting on. I'm just simply betting the number.
That's all I know.
Speaker 3 (42:46):
At Tennessee right now, like that will let us to
carry you to these covers right now is literally.
Speaker 1 (42:52):
Rushing That line moved a full point through a key
number since we've been on the air. Yeah, because I
checked this right before we came on the air. Wow,
that's super frustrating. Goshdarn the almost holiday movie signed movie time?
Do you know what movie that's from?
Speaker 2 (43:12):
Christmas Vacation?
Speaker 1 (43:13):
Nice? I think that was before you were born. And
you know it.
Speaker 2 (43:17):
Yeah, I got VHS.
Speaker 1 (43:20):
Chess, Jesus Christ Carolina plus six and a half at
Tampa Bay Done book it, Let's go.
Speaker 2 (43:26):
I know we have to go. They know. That was
the line that jumped out to me too, where it's like,
you know, some books open at seven, some books opened
at six. Six and a half. Six feels right, That
feels like where this line should be.
Speaker 3 (43:41):
Because Tampa is I mean, we talked about they're like
the most complete team, no doubt in that division.
Speaker 2 (43:47):
Like they're they've just been unlucky.
Speaker 3 (43:49):
They lost those two games to Atlanta and games in
which they easily could have won, didn't break their way.
Speaker 2 (43:55):
They're just so well coached.
Speaker 3 (43:58):
You know, not that I I hope they're gonna lose today,
but everything about today was like they might look over
this Giants team and not really take them serious. They
came out there and just beat their ship out go
seventeen nothing like that.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
Yeah, they were not fucking around.
Speaker 3 (44:14):
And you know Mike Evans back, you see immediately how
big of a difference it mix that offense where it's
like he can just get you that five six yards
anytime you really need it.
Speaker 2 (44:25):
And we've seen it now.
Speaker 3 (44:27):
Bucky Irving, he's coming and really reshaped that team's running style.
Speaker 2 (44:31):
He just runs so hard.
Speaker 3 (44:34):
You know, it's just been so impressive watch him as
a rookie get better every week. And you know, Todd
Bowles is old school, he's still giving you know, I
think it's white.
Speaker 2 (44:42):
They're number one a lot of touches.
Speaker 3 (44:43):
But you know, Bucky Tommy, he's the he's the game
changer right now on that offense, like him with Baker
Mike Evans, like that's that's a really good offense right now.
And you know this Carolina team, we just talked about
it there. Their defense is bad, like teams are always
be able to move the ball on that The key
is for us with them, what type of rights young
(45:04):
we get in that day and when he's on this
offense is click. And then well they're what three straight covers?
Speaker 1 (45:09):
Now, yeah, straight two wins, three covers.
Speaker 2 (45:12):
They turned it around, they turn around and.
Speaker 1 (45:15):
Like this is a big favorite in a division game,
and so they're gonna be on the road.
Speaker 3 (45:22):
And then one more before we go. Just this, this
to me is like the stinkiest, funkiest line of the week.
Saints plus two and a half at home against this
Rams team. I told you I think the Rams are
gonna win tonight. So it's like, I'm not a rush
to bet this one, but i promise you me and
Chad gonna be on the Saints. Yeah yeah, Like that's
(45:43):
not that I like the match up for them, because
I've we've already seen how that Saints team is gonna be. Now,
like they're gonna be our run heavy team, which I love.
But if if the Rams went tonight, this will be
a perfect spot to sell on this team.
Speaker 1 (45:58):
Well, look, there's a lot of games we can discuss.
The forty nine ers or six and a half point
Dogs on the road at the bills. We don't know
the status of anybody for that game. We've heard brock
Perty is going to play a lot to talk about
next week. Super excited to unpack all of it. We
got the rams tonight. Even though Simon and I are
(46:20):
on opposite sides, I'm going to root for us to
be three and two. Let's against a root against my dollars.
I love Simon and I want him to be right,
and I want us to be good in the contest.
As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
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(46:44):
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Conditioned restrictions apply. Catch our Thanksgiving mega episode live on
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We'll cover the whole Thanksgiving week board, all the picks,
all their segments. We'll announce our week twelve contest winner.
(47:26):
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at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network,
live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad
Milman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night episode.
We will review the faves five picks we put into
the contest, dissect why we left some of them out,
(00:31):
preview the early lines for week thirteen, Man thirteenteen. I'm
joined as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
my BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter Ella Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Yeah, what a day, crazy day of football.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Wacky, wild head spinning, heart attack and heart attack inducing,
stomach churning slates of early games and somehow from the
contest point of view, were not really impacted by any
of them. In fact, for the second week in a row,
(01:08):
we only played two of the four games that were
typically obvious plays for us that we tend to love.
Three of those games, one only loss was the one
that we played, just like Buffalo last week. The only
loss was the one that we played, and when I
(01:28):
say Buffalo, I mean Kansas City losing to Buffalo. We
did find a teeny, teeny tiny bit of redemption with
one of our favorite teams to bet. We will get
to all of that and more. Cliffhanger right there, simon.
Catch every episode of the Favorites on YouTube. For those
(01:49):
who joined on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like,
subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page as a reminder.
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(02:12):
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(02:34):
restrictions apply we are two and two heading into the
Sunday night game. We are on the Rams at plus
two and a half. This is a strictly Simon bet.
Last week, the Browns were a strictly Chad bet. It
did not work. This week, we are on a strictly
(02:56):
Simon bet. I hope it works. I'd like to be
three and two. I'm willing to lose my Eagles bet
that has actual dollars on it because I know how
much you want the Rams and I'd like us to
be three and two this week.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
You're literally a crazy person.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
I love that every time you mentioned this, you're like
it's because of the Browns last week. No, I would
have made this bet before stin regardless of the Browns
covered last week or if they didn't.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I loved at your reference point. But uh yeah, we
need it.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
We need it for a winning week. And you know
we talked this morning. I was open to take it
out just because it's a bad number. Like we said,
there's threes out there. I'd feel more confident if we
had a three three and a half, but luckily we
didn't because I think we talked about either putting the
Patriots or the Bears in there, which obviously the Bears
would have been epic for us, but Patriots woo. That
(03:47):
would have been painful if we had put that one in.
So yeah, I'm happy with two and two right now.
I don't know about you.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
I feel great about two and two, and I feel
great especially because I think we got a little bit lucky.
And we'll talk about it. Let's talk about the game.
We loved the most. One of the big dogs in
the early slate that just could not get it done.
We had Indianapolis plus seven and a half against Detroit
in Indie and like we were all over it. We
(04:16):
loved it. We've been super impressed with stich In. We've
been super impressed with the Colts. We like their running game.
We thought this could be not a letdown spot because
we've said it this all year. Physical travels and the
Lions are a very physical team. But we liked a
little bit of the matchup, so we thought we were
getting a good number, good matchup, elite unit on the
(04:39):
right side of the ball for the Colts. And like
the first half, it was so tantalizing. I don't know
how you felt about it, but the Colts got field
goals the lines got touchdowns, and you just felt like
they need they need, they need one or play one
(05:01):
more play to put themselves in a position to be
able to be competitive in this game.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
It felt like what you just said that that to
me is the basicial.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
But one team could run the ball today and Detroit
and one team could not run the ball. And Jonathan
Taylor he just did not show up today. He did
nothing for us. And I'll be honest, when they kicked
that field goal to start the game, I instantly regretted
making one.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Of my biggest bets of the day.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
I don't know about you, but I was like, why
is this a huge bet for me today? Because I
load it up on I love the spot, love the number,
and you know, like we keep saying Detroit breaks a
lot of these rules, and I keep going against them
a certain spots and it's like what am I doing? Like,
you can't you can't kick field goals against Detroit, especially
when you're in the red zone, you know, a couple
(05:43):
of yards out.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
It's just Detroit's gonna get theirs.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
And their defense played well, like Detroit put up what
twenty four points? Yeah, even though it sounds like a
lot of points. That's that's pretty good when you go
up against this juggern Ivan offense that Detroit has, and
uh yeah, their run game is just something special on
their defense show, but they're just a complete team right now.
Detroit with the Colts, like you said, it was competitive.
Game was fourteen six. You know, a couple things kind
(06:08):
of broke our away and that would have been a
much closer half, But that second half it was just
all Detroit. They made the right adjustments. Richardson could not
do a single thing in that second half. At one point,
I think it was nine for twenty four passing. So yeah,
rolled all the good we saw in the Jets game
kind of went out the window. He just was not
connecting with his guys day the guys open too, which
(06:28):
was brutal but bad read bad bet and we we
haven't learned our lesson here with this Detroit team. But
maybe we'll see this upcoming week. I think I'll be
able to get you on Detroit side.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
It's going to make a trick. I've already flagged that
game for the week thirteen lines we're looking at, and
you know, we'll obviously talk about it a lot on
the favorites Anthony Richardson. You just mentioned how badly he played,
completed just thirty nine percent of his passes. Yeah, the
Lions two good, good, too, physical, too well coached right.
(07:04):
Five penalties for the Lions, ten for the Colts. Lions
three for four in the red zone, Colts zero for two.
A boring game, poorly played, completely disappointing. That's that's how
I look at this game.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
Yeah, like I said, though he had opportunities, you were
right though, he was just an accurate It's like, you know,
I mean, we know what you're doing when we bet him,
but it's just brittal because he was running the ball
so well. Start that game and it's like, okay, we're
moving the ball here against Detroit, and then he just
completely folded on himself. I don't know whatever happened that
second half. He just was not the same guy as
(07:41):
he was in the first half. They just had no
rhythm to that offense. So yeah, like I said, that
just Detroit right now, they're just a complete team, and
they're they're they're not just beating these teams like they're
destroying them.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Like that was another double digit win. This is crazy.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
They're destroying them, and I feel like they're mentally breaking
them sometimes. Yeah, Like think look back a few weeks
ago they played the Vikings, the Vikings were killing them.
The Lions come back. Sam Darnold for the next three
or four weeks was a different player, and like they
just it's like they're so freaking physical, they're so hard
(08:16):
to play. I think it really wears you down. And
we saw that. We saw that with the Colts tam.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
And they know exactly where they are.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
They're like, they're running it on thirty eight and it's
a smart read, like you know golf. He's just got
the confidence of the line that he'll he'll adjust, he'll
see be like, all right, they're dropping back on thirty eight.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
I'll just run it here.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
And they're picking up you know, ten yards in that
carry like and that one two punch of Gibbs Montgomery. Man,
it's it's lethal right now. So they're just so good.
If you're a fan of their team, obviously you're hoping
they carry into the playoffs because right now, I mean
for this last month, month and a half, they've just
been totally like, by far, the best team in football.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
They're just so complete right.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Now, quick reminder are free free favorites. Podcast watch party
is just weeks away. It's time to are at VP, folks. Thursday,
December twelfth, The Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia, Simon
Hunter's hometown. We're gonna do drinks, free drinks, a live
(09:13):
Q and A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell is
going to be there too. Starts at six, ends at eight.
We're gonna hang out for Thursday Night football, the Rams
and the Niners to URSVP. Check out the link in
the podcast description page or on the YouTube episode description.
Simon and I will tweet it out as well. Space
(09:35):
is limited, RSVPs are pouring in. Don't delay, please get
it done.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
We found something special, man. I felt It's like we're
in here together. Nobody's coming out of that circle. Man.
That's exactly where you want to be right now.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
All right, gether game? Kansas City at Carolina. We had
Carolina plus ten and a half. He ended up pretty
glorious and not very suspensul It ended up looking exactly right,
and us doing the right thing by not being afraid
of what we've seen on the field and what the
(10:10):
situation told us and what the trends told us and
not being afraid that we were going to make our
listeners and our viewers truly hate us for betting on
the Panthers. The Panthers finally, finally, finally looking like the
team we thought they would be to start the year right,
(10:30):
they were just good enough and at time's fantastic and
they found their way and Bryce Young did the right things.
There was a moment, though, I don't know if you
feel the same way, where I was like, oh fudge,
did you ever feel that way?
Speaker 2 (10:51):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (10:51):
I would say the opening touchdown when the guy's wide open,
Noah Gray, and it's like mahomes thrown to wide open guys.
This is not good for me and Chad and then
we had what straight field goals by Carolina, So yeah,
it's this is life betting these bad teams. It just
makes you put your hair out. All the different scenaries
we were right, like, we trusted the number.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
When it came down to it.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
I was kicking myself that we didn't taken the money
line around Robin because that was honestly where I wanted
to put them, but I didn't because I just knew
the fans were so sick of us in our Carolina Love.
That's like, all right, just if we can get them
just to take ten and a half, that would be
a celebration. And yeah, luckily good number. Good bet.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
We always talked about Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
Well, I can't even ballame them for this one, right,
that was really the defense of the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Yeah, they were the ones that really didn't show up
in this game.
Speaker 3 (11:37):
So that was probably the most shocking part of it,
was that me and you joked before it's like Ken
Ken Brayshaw, get us that twenty points threshold because we
saw that stat by Evan, which is just crazy.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Basically, if the team doesn't get to twenty points, then
mahomes the favorite. He's always thirteen to er. Yeah, so.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
You know, we got to it and it's this is
what we thought this Panthers team would be a fun
team on offense. I could spread teams out, run the
ball well and then make teams kind of suck in
and when they do Bryce Bryce Young is very accurate, right,
He's really good on those first second reads. This year
with him was just he has a little bit of pressure.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
He just kept folding.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
He's not athletic enough to run outside the pockets.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
So he's not doing that now. Like in this game,
he was pressured constantly, he was rolling out constantly, he
was throwing out his back foot, and he was dropping
dimes to people like all the way down the field
who are running out routes towards the sideline and he's
got someone literally in his face holding on to him.
(12:41):
And he hit some great throws today.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
Yeah, he got his.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
Confidence back, right, And that's something we talked about where
like he's not as bad as he looked.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
We just don't know if he's a starter in this league.
But we talk all the time.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
You need two to three years really to evaluate these quarterbacks.
That's what's so tough about this where it's like, did
we want to bury him because we just don't think
he has the body. He doesn't have the you know what,
we expect the quarterback to be a big six to
five guy. Yeah, but at the same time, you can
see why he was a top pick, right, Like you
just said, he was making plays that I don't know
about you about Those were a couple of times I
(13:13):
was like freaking out. It's like this kid is just
lofting off his back foot. Yeah, like you said, it
was dropping right, into the guy's buckets. So yeah, great,
great game, great bet, And you know the ten and
a half. That was a little scary in the very
beginning chat, but at the end he.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Never it was never really in debt.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
There was a moment, that's what I want to know
if you were thinking the same thing. So there was
a moment where the leverage point was eleven, right, it
was twenty seven sixteen right, And it was going back
and forth on that and if it was going to
be field goal, field goal, field goal, trading field goals
(13:50):
with the Panthers hoping they might be able to get
to the end zone and cut it a little bit
closer as it gets later, it was going to land
on a bad number for us. We had bet I
had bet the eleven. I don't know if you bet
the eleven and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Yeah, I mean I bet some time and a half,
super right. My main bets were eleven eleven and.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
A half, right. So it got tricky there at the
end because in the contest we had to take this
the Niners out of the contest when Brock Purdy was
announced as not playing, and we put the Packers in
at three and a half, and we'll get to.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
Well, it was the day before. We just did it
just in case because it had been a release yet
you right.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
Right, But what happened was in that window between us
choosing the Niners, we had also chosen the Panthers at
eleven and a half lost, so we lost the eleven
and a half and now we had ten and a half.
So during the game, I'm like, are you freaking kidding
me that we're going to lose the Colts and we're
going to lose the Panthers who we were on the
(14:50):
whole time and we finally got right and we're going
to lose it by half a point and then Marakulo.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
This year has been weird, Chad, The the two and
the three have only really mattered to this year.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Do you agree?
Speaker 3 (15:01):
It feels like all of our bets. The only time
that's really burned us is if it's two or three.
Every other game is either a blowout or the dog wins. Outright,
it's been very bizarre this year where the numbers really
have not mattered. Like we joked today, it was like
Arizona was half a point. I was like, who cares,
there's this ain't this ain't gonna land on half, you know,
so it was just it's been weird like this this year.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
It's just the two and the three have been such.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Key numbers, and me and you talk about that where
it's like we are not you know, we freak out
about the numbers so much because me and you've done
this long enough. We've been burned by that hook on
weird numbers before. But in actuality it just never I
mean this year especially, it just not has not happened
to us. Our numbers have not mattered.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
Fascinating game. The Panthers were nine of thirteen on third
and fourth down conversions combined. Right Bryce Young had three
two great third down completions and really critical moments they
own time of the session. The problem was they just
couldn't stop Patrick Mahomes in the first half. The Chiefs
(16:04):
have fifteen first outs and it was only in the
second half when the Chiefs do what they always do,
they decided to get a little more conservative that the
Panthers defense finally found some success in holding them a
little bit. But then the Chiefs couldn't stop the Panthers,
and so the question becomes like are these Panthers Are
(16:27):
these Panthers a team? That we are starting to believe in.
Will the market catch up. They've got a big number
against division arrival this upcoming week. We're going to talk
about it on the show later. I don't know if
you flagged it. I certainly flagged it, but it definitely
was a game that stood out to me. So I
don't know if there's like an adjustment yet, if this
(16:48):
will make the market change a little bit. Obviously we
were ahead of it. We've liked what they've done the
past couple of weeks. Plus they had to buy it
was a It was a big sort of action bet today.
People were on the Panthers raybound timeked about it and
convinced me. I don't know if you're looking at the
Panthers and you're like, so I have to reevaluate.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
Them, Well, we'll see.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
I mean I have to keep a justing. I told you,
like I had them eight and a half. The number
are sitting on eight until that final touchdown, right, So
it's like fell like got I was, Okay, this is
where this game should be. So we'll see this line
this upcoming week. Maybe the books will finally catch up
to it, but unlikely, right, because I think you're talking
about their matchup where it's like the public is going
to be kind of fading them once again.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
I feel like this upcoming week, the.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Books obviously dominated the Giants and Baker just bald. I
don't know if did you watch any of that game?
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (17:36):
I love watching him play.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Yeah, him throwing the block down field, all of it.
He's just hilarious.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
He gives no fox like that is why his teammates
love him so much. He is amazing to watch. And
that Giants team, they just they just quit San Francisco
at Green Bay. So this was like the pivot game,
the leverage game for us because we heard brock Purty
was going to be out, all those rumors were happening.
(18:03):
We wanted to get them out of the contest. We
immediately flipped a Green Bay. We had Green Bay three
and a half, and that was the game that made
us take the Panthers at ten and a half. I got, like,
I don't think we loved the Packers at three and
a half? Did we?
Speaker 2 (18:23):
I did?
Speaker 3 (18:23):
I get why you didn't trust it though, because we
just this isn't the type of spot we bet. We
like bet in the backups with a big number, So
like I get to you was a little foreign, but
I don't know if it was Tennessee you said, whoever
it was in our texting to put them in. I'm like,
can we just for ones, take the fucking easy bet
and just take green Bay here? And it was just
like I was like, Chad, if someone was like, yeah,
(18:44):
you can climb Mount ever so without without oxygen or
with oxygen, Chad goes, let's do without oxygen. Huh, it'd
be better without oxygen. So yeah, thank god we put
green Bay in it. Just even up to six and
a half, I would have been like, you know what,
probably can take this like it just we already out
of that forty nine ers team. Then coming in they
had you know, a bunch of injuries and then no Bosa,
(19:05):
no party. It's like we talked last year there were
stars and scrub team. They're a team that's very top heavy.
You saw today like they're a good offense, right even
when Kittle's in there, he's good, but Debo has not
been making place for them like they need to. And
you know, this kid came in and Alan hung in
there for a little bit, but eventually you saw the
ball start sailing a little bit once you took a
(19:26):
couple of hits, and that's that's how it is. It's
just hard as hell to be consistent for four quarters
in the NFL, Like we joke all the time, there's
what fourteen to fifteen quarterbacks you trust to be consistent
in this league week to week, and he ain't gonna
be one of them.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
So we could have got burned by it. That's what
your hesitation was.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
But my view was just like, let's just play this
number against a backup on a forty nine ers team
that's just having the year from hell. And you saw
it kind of accumulating that game right like they were
kind of getting back into it, and then a little
by little things have just kept going around from once again,
Jordan Love didn't even pay great even though he already
had a bad drop by Watson. You know, there was
a couple of things he didn't do great. It was
(20:04):
just a great run grain, a great run game. And
then their defense for Green Bay, which I feel like
this whole season, their turnovers is what's carried this team
all year.
Speaker 1 (20:14):
Yeah, Xavier McKinny had another interception. Yeah they got I
think they got really lucky. It was twenty four to ten.
Jordan Love head into the fourth quarter, was nine of
nineteen for one hundred and nine yards. At this point
in the game, early in the fourth quarter, they had
just punted, They had only had two first downs in
(20:35):
the second half. They had scored seventeen points early basically
on the strength of Josh Jacobs running over forty nine ers.
They have fifteen misstackles in the early part in the
first half of the game, Josh Jacobs was twelve of those,
and then he left the game for Crimps, and when
he came back in he dominated again. But Jordan Love
was terrible and he's been terrible all season, and that,
(20:59):
to me was my biggest concern. Was all of a sudden,
the number had popped three and a half and we
were on the other side of the hook, and we
were betting on a bad quarterback right now, like a
very inconsistent, as you say, quarterback, there's not a lot
of people can count on. That was to me was
the concern. I didn't have faith he'd be able to
(21:20):
make the plays when we really needed him to, and
he kind of didn't except for that one drop by Watson.
That makes me think about the future obviously they're playing Thanksgiving.
That's another game I flagged. They're playing in Miami, And
I'm gonna want to talk about that with you, because
all of a sudden, I'm concerned about Jordan Love. He's
(21:41):
just had a bad year, just had a really bad year.
Speaker 3 (21:44):
Yeah, and I think you know they talked about during
the broadcast he was leading the league interceptions even though
he missed multiple games this year.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
Yeah, you know.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
Last year the best part of Jordan Love was how
you know the second half of the season, I think
you only had two interceptions or something crazy like that.
And it's like, Okay, this guy's throwing from multiple touchdowns
a game with no interceptions.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
He's a stud. They paid him like one and this
year you've seen it.
Speaker 3 (22:07):
He's regressed to the meeting, right, It's like, yeah, he's
not that guy who's like Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
That Aaron Rodgers was the unicorn.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
We've always talked about that his thirty touchdowns, thirty five
touchdowns and five interceptions.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
It's not gonna happen again. Man.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
Like I was scared because I was like, oh my god,
they might have got another Aaron Rodgers here because he
was just so smart last year with the ball like
anytime he could throw fifty to fifty balls. Last year,
it felt like he put in a position where this
guy would catch it or no one would.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
This year, a lot of his stuff's like over the middle.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
Just bullets like no, you know, no fades in the corner,
like he's trying to like throw through guys, and he's
throwing it right to defend him a couple of times.
So you're right to be hesitant about him right now.
I mean, I got no excuses for him. He's just
been bad this year.
Speaker 1 (22:50):
I do wonder how much the injuries are impacting him
right Like he he has lower body injuries. That impacts
your mobility. I think it impacts your confidence and it
probably impacts your performance in a variety of ways that
you can't really sort of tangibly put your finger on.
(23:11):
But he's clearly not the same player he was last year,
and he hasn't been all year, and he's been injured
all year, so he's probably playing through stuff. He might
be back to his old self next year. This year,
no love, Yeah, this week we have no Thursday episode
or this Thanksgiving. I want everyone to have a fantastic
(23:32):
Thanksgiving I will be packing up my mother in law's
Taten Island. I hope everyone is doing something a lot
more fun than that. As this tradition, we will do
our Thanksgiving mega episode on Tuesday at the usual time
that is one forty five pm Eastern on Tuesday. All
the picks, all of our segments all on Thursday. That's
(23:54):
big Balls, that's the money line, Underdog Round Rob and
that's the boosted parlay, every pick, the box al. It's
all gonna be on Tuesday so we can celebrate Turkey Day.
Last game, Arizona Seattle. Did we get got? Like on this?
Like it felt like they were the Cardinals were just
(24:15):
disinterested in this whole game. Like at one point they
couldn't convert on third downs six straight missed third downs,
fourth and one didn't convert, got lucky with the called
Seattle time out, and then the next play Kyler Murray
rolling out, gonna run for it, decides to pull it
back as a guy wide freaking open, little tiny tear
(24:38):
drop pass. It's gonna be perfect sales on him. Pick six.
Seattle ends up being the game. What happened here?
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Yeah, we got Kyler?
Speaker 3 (24:49):
I mean he just played awful in every aspect you
just talked about, and for some reason they wouldn't commit
to the run even though it was a seven to
three game.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Like, yeah, the whole for half and.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
Yeah, that pick six is kind of like the nail
on the coffin because Gino didn't have it either. I mean,
let's be honest, like he he had be a nice
two minute drill like he always does.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
He didn't and he did like in the same sort
of chaotic, high pressure situations where everyone is running around.
Gino had multiple plays where he got out of the pocket,
found the guy you know, and made the miracle play
That sort of feels like the kick and the dick
(25:33):
that we all have when we're losing these games. And
the rest of the time he's just Gino and he
makes stupid decisions. But it's like those two minutes are cardiac.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
Yeah, Like honestly, like you're describing him, he's great. Between
the thirties. That's where Gino's great. Like you need a
useless yards in the middle of the field, He'll get
you those yards that end zone picky through like inexcusable.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
Just every week it fills with Gino. He has moments like.
Speaker 3 (26:03):
This, but no, it was Kyler. Kyler just totally laid
an egg. I mean, I'm gonna go back and watch
it all twenty two. I know for a fact, you know,
a couple of different options where he just missed wide
open guys in the end zone. And you know it
could because maybe they get a little bit of pressure
in this game where it's like he gets rattled easily,
and when he has that, he just starts feeling like
(26:23):
there's guys around him and there wasn't any sometimes like
he panicked, tried to run out of the pocket too often.
But the biggest issue for me is them abandoned the run.
They just we know Seattle is not great against the run,
and you know, they kind of just moved on from
it right away early in the game, like they just
it didn't work for a little bit and they were
just like, all right, we'll just have Kyler throw it
forty times this game, which was bizarre because like we
(26:45):
just said, it was a close.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
Game all the way to the end. Uh So, yeah,
bad bet bad read.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
He looked bored. Kyler just looked bored and disinterested. You know,
we got a couple of regrets here, so that the
two big dogs that we left out, the big division
dogs that we left out, Titans and Cowboys. Obviously they
both won today, crazy crazy games, And this was you
(27:13):
know you said earlier we trusted the number with the Panthers, Right,
we should have trusted the number with the Titans and
the Cowboys. But both teams have quarterbacks that we do
not trust, and unlike Bryce Young, there's been no evidence
that we should trust them. Right, I'm like trying to
unpack why didn't we just go with them? Like we
knew that we had so many We had such a
(27:33):
long conversation about the Titans, and like the trends worried us,
but then the trends are also there to regress, you know.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
I mean, I think he got sacked eight times and
he threw a pick six.
Speaker 1 (27:48):
He got sacked eight times in the first and like
six times in the first half, and he threw a
pick six to give the Texans the lead. And when
that happened, I was like, honest to god, I was
actually more upset about the games we didn't put in
today than the games we lost, or were more excited
about the games we won. Yeah, And I don't know
if that ever happens to you, but with will Levis
(28:10):
when they went down twenty four to twenty three after
that pick six, I said to myself, I'm so glad
we didn't put this in the contest because it was
ripe for the Texans to run away with that game.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
After Yeah, I mean I felt that a little bit.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
The biggest one I would say was the Bears.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
Like we I had guys in my ear about that
game on Sunday last week.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
We talked about it Sunday night.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
It stayed at three and a half literally all week
until what eleven am.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Yeah today, Yeah, And that's.
Speaker 3 (28:41):
Kind of games that make you sick because like, I
bet it, obviously I know you bet, And it's like
they came back a game we were dead, we were dead,
they were down fourteen with whatever that was five minutes
to go, yeah, and we get that back to recover.
Those are the ones I'm like, damn, I wish we
had that win in because that's just that's so much fun.
I doubt most people listening to our show about that,
just because, like most people, you know, the Brian floor
(29:03):
Is aspect of that game was a little scary with
Kayleb Williams, but.
Speaker 1 (29:06):
That's the reason we didn't we didn't put it in.
I don't think.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
Yeah, and you know, Caleb Williams once again, whatever the
change has happened, you know, I think he went over
already at five scramble study at five rushes like he's
more comfortable running outside the pocket when he needs to,
and he's making big time throws, and you know, he
had a couple of big rookie moments when they really
couldn't afford it, and that overtime they lost it. But yeah,
(29:31):
that was a really fun cover having that gamelin on
a three, just because it's like everything that could have
gone wrong felt go starting going wrong for them, especially
when they had that muff punt.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
You know, they muffed that punt.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
The Lakings score right away, make it from seventeen to
ten game to a twenty four to ten game. It's like, okay,
that's a dead bet, and yeah that that Bears team.
I know you guys have had the wins chat, but
you guys have had hell of an exciting run.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Here these last four or five weeks.
Speaker 3 (29:57):
So uh yeah, painful life being a bet, but silver
lining is it feels like this is what the Lions
went through and they eventually turned it around.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
So maybe this is just the beginning of something special. Chad.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
Yeah, except the Lions had Dan Campbell and we don't
know who. Maybe we'll get Ben Johnson.
Speaker 3 (30:14):
Did you really were you about Dan Campbell when they
had lost nine they started year zero to nine.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
I love Dan Campbell. I was always in. I was
always on the game.
Speaker 3 (30:22):
I thought he was a fucking idiot. I was like,
this is not gonna last once. They're a good team.
Speaker 1 (30:25):
But I was always on the Campbell bandwagon from day one.
Never wavered. My god, man, you guys didn't bat an eye.
I love this freaking team.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
I love the coaches, I love the players, I love
everything about it. Man, we are so freaking hardened even
when she doesn't go the way we wanted to. Man,
you find a way.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
The scariest game that Cowboys Commander's game. Four touchdowns in
the final three minutes. Four and a half minutes left
nine to cover the under clearly it went over. The
Commanders had two missed extra points, the Cowboys had a
(31:01):
special teams touchdown on the on side kick, and then
they had Kevon Turpin with a video game move on
a kickoff, like are you freaking kidding me. That was
I didn't bet the under or that total, but geez Louise,
that was brutal if you did.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
Yeah, I liked the under.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
I like the under just because it was a really
nice spot of Washington off extended rests, playing against a
Cowboys team coming off a Monday night game, and it
was like, Okay, both these teams I think are gonna
be sloppy, unprepared. It was three to three and a half.
I was feeling a really great about that under ticket,
but you just said it. Then football happened and all
these wonky crazy things happened. I think they scored like
(31:45):
you just had twenty eight points in the finals three
minutes of that fourth quarter, something crazy like that. And
uh yeah, Terry McLaurin that Jane Daniels touchdown, you thought, okay,
they'll go for two here, but dan Quinn did his
classic dan Quin thing went for the extra point, and
I'm so happy they missed it because I fucking hate him.
I hate when they do that. It's like, I get it,
(32:07):
your guys might be a little tired because they just
ran the whole field. So was the defense, Like you
can't tell me that's not the spot to go for
two theres. So yeah, if you're a Cowboys fan, what
a great win, Like you didn't think, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
You thought this season was over.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
I think they'd lost five straight up to this point.
You know, Rush had a good game and their defense
showed up, Like you know, Kingsbury, he was the hot
item to start the year, and now I don't know
if they're going to bring him back. Man, it seems
like his offense has been kind of figured out here
down these last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
Well, that's actually one of the reasons why I'm most
disappointed we didn't put the Cowboys in is because we
had a long conversation we identified Jaden daniels struggles the
past five weeks. He's just consistently gotten worse and worse,
to the point where when I mentioned Bo Nicks's Rookie
(32:59):
of the Year, Matt Mitchell wants to fight me. But
Jamee Daniels is just like that Terry McLaurin pass eighty
six yards untouched. That was miraculous. I don't know that
that makes him like any better. He was terrible in
this game. So like we're gonna have to have a
conversation about this. We're gonna have to have a conversation
(33:21):
about Rookie of the Year and his bow Nix in
his last four games doing completion percentage type numbers that
are similar to what Jadon Daniels did in his first
four games, and winning and actually getting better every game
and winning in really challenging spots on the road against
the Raiders who always cover in this spot in the division. Like,
(33:42):
it's going to be a conversation. I want to see
those odds when we get to to Tuesday show. Who
impressed you this week? Because I want to talk about
some of the games.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I mean, you just talk about bow Nicks. I love Denver.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
This week it was a sweat but they covered, and
it's just really about how great their offense and their
defense is playing, about how bad the Raiders have been playing.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
And it literally played out that way right. The Raiders
needed a fake punt.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
In a fifty yard return to kind of have the
lead early on, and Minshew eventually knew, we knew he
was gonna do it.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
He threw a pick, kind of flipped the.
Speaker 3 (34:18):
Whole game right, kind of gave the Denver what they
needed so them in Miami like this Miami team, you know,
to his numbers this year when you dive into it,
he's been like really good, especially since he's come back.
Speaker 1 (34:32):
I know, it's amazing.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
Yeah, they're not playing against the best teams, but at
the same time, he's been putting up the stats and
like their offense is really a humming. And that was
another really terrible read. That New England team. You know,
I'll admit to it. I got sucked in just because
Drake May had such big moments cut last couple of weeks.
He looked totally out of in this game. Yeah, like
(34:54):
totally lost from the get go. So they're definitely a team.
You know, I wouldn't give props and a team that
you were on this week, I should say in Tennessee,
I still know what they are because their defense isn't
good and that was the whole reason you.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Kind of wanted to back them.
Speaker 3 (35:10):
Yeah, I don't know what to make of that team,
even more so now because like we just said, Will
Levis got dominated. But he is so good at pushing
the ball downfield, Like when he's going downfield and then
Pollard can run the ball.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
It just seems like Tennessee can move the ball.
Speaker 3 (35:23):
So they're just another team I really I have no
read on right now because it's like I kind of
wanted to take them this week and now I'm just
thinking to myself, it's like, then we just get away
with one backing on this past week.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
Do we really have to try to back them again?
Speaker 1 (35:35):
Well, here's the good news, Simon. Between Jade and Daniels
and Will Levis and Tennessee and Tua and Jordan Love,
We've talked about so many of the teams that I
wanted to digig on to get on for a week thirteam.
Let's talk about a couple of things giving games quickly. Yeah,
(35:57):
Lions Bears in Detroit. Lions are ten and a half
point favorites right now. How do we not take them?
Speaker 2 (36:04):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (36:04):
And Evan's gonna give us some amazing stats this upcoming week.
But basically we talk every year. Thanksgiving is a very new,
unique day. It's a day where you basically just bet
the favorites. You try not to overthink it just because
historically the favorites cover. It's a weird trend, but it's
panned out over my life as a better It's like
I used to outthink it I used to be like, Okay,
(36:25):
I'm always gonna take the dogs. Usually my theory's it
stands true as day is I take all the favorites
unless it's the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
I always fade the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
Whatever the dog is, I take that dog, especially outright
and on the flip side, I always take the favorites.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
Here we go, Thank you, my man.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
Evan favorites of over ten points are nine to zero
against the spread on Thanksgiving since two thousand and five
eleven and oh against the spreads.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
It's a wildcard era. Wow. So that's what I mean, Like,
you don't you know me? I want to bet that
Bears team.
Speaker 3 (36:54):
I would love to take time and a half fem
But on Thanksgiving you throw that stuff out.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
It's a public holiday.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
Like the books, they let you get fat eating food
and let your wilet's get fat.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
Like, don't overthink it.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
You simply fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and you take
all the other favorites.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
All right, Well that's the second game. So which is
Miami three and a half point dog visiting Green Bay,
Tua who looked amazing And I thought he looked amazing
today and shout out doctor Nick Giffen, who gave out
and convinced me this morning. The Dolphins team total over
twenty seven and a half. They practically covered it in
the first half. Tua, the ball handling, the accuracy, the comfort.
(37:33):
Like I always think back to that scene of Mike
McDaniels when he was flying from San Francisco to Miami
on the private plane. He called to and told him
how good he was going to be in this offense. Yeah,
and he so nailed it. What a difference in this
team when Tua is playing. Kudos to them, but they
(37:55):
are historically terrible against good teams, historically terrible on the
road against good teams. I'm sure Evan has the metrics,
and if he doesn't have him tonight in the chat,
then we'll talk about him on Tuesday. And this is
a This is not a great spot for them. As
much as I don't like Jordan Love, I feel like
we got to take the Packers.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
Yeah, and you just talk a little bit about it.
It's like, this ain't down in Miami. This is gonna
be in what thirty degrees? Maybe I guess it's a
night game, So what twenty degrees at night in Lambeau
there's a reason they're giving you three and a half here, Chad, Yeah,
I agree with your first glance.
Speaker 2 (38:35):
It's like, why is this not two and a half?
Like Green Bay?
Speaker 3 (38:38):
The way these teams have been playing, I know I
wanted to be as I'm with you. I wanted to
be on two of here, but I just broke it down. People,
I don't ever think it. I take the home favorites here.
This is just the way it is. And once again
we're getting a nice, nice line here. So there's a
couple couple threes out there.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
I grab that if you can.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
Right now, I could just see all the books going
to three and a half on this one Black Friday.
Speaker 1 (39:01):
There's four more games I want to discuss quickly, and
then I want to get to the ones you will
just so we.
Speaker 3 (39:04):
Close out Thanksgiving Lions, I just want to talk more
Tuesday Lions, Giants and Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
That's those are my bets right now.
Speaker 1 (39:12):
Wow, Giants love it. Ballsy Ballsy Black Friday Raiders twelve
and a half at Kansas City. I'm taking it off
now because we don't know what's going on with Minshew.
I put it on the script in the script before
we knew what was going on with Minshew. I want
to take the Raiders in that spot. But if I
don't know who the quarterback is, I'm a little bit
more skeptical.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (39:32):
If you have thoughts there, I.
Speaker 3 (39:33):
Agree we're sticking to Oh Man, Minshew done for the season,
broken collar boone, he yikes. So you want me to
take a O'Connell in Kansas City on a short week.
Speaker 1 (39:43):
O'Connell's not going to be playing.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
Oh right, it's ridd Jesus god, oh god.
Speaker 1 (39:51):
That's what I mean. Of course, we want to take
the division.
Speaker 3 (39:57):
To say, if you want to take the Raiders, wait
because if I'm a I like the Chiefs, you gotta
grab the Chiefs right now.
Speaker 2 (40:01):
This is going up.
Speaker 1 (40:02):
Yeah, it's gonna it could get to two touchdowns, and
if it gets two touchdowns, maybe again. But that's really
about how the Chiefs play, not about the Raiders. Right.
We see it week in and week out. The Chiefs
are very conservative in the second half, and they like
to milk the clock. They don't care how much they
win by.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
No, they're they're playing for January.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
Yeah, They're good enough to convert when they need to
and run the clock down. They're very conservative in the
second half. It's how the Panthers stayed in today. All Right,
Pittsburgh plus two and a half at Cincinnati, Mike Tomlin
as a dog in the division on the road. Don't
overthink it, don't overthink it. Don't tell me no.
Speaker 2 (40:48):
We can do it.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
I'm just pissed we don't get the three sons of bitches.
The public is so out on the Bengals now because
you know, if they would have capped off that comeback
against the Chargers pittsburghloss like they did, We're getting three
and a half here, no problem.
Speaker 2 (41:03):
We're getting three and a half on this number. So
I'm with you. I'll take it. But let's hope, let's
hope we get to a three on this one.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
That would be so nice in this matchup, because I
just feel like this is going to be that classic
game comes down to a field goal either side, right,
I mean.
Speaker 1 (41:16):
We're not getting three in this game. It's already down
to two in some places.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (41:21):
No, it makes sense again, the NFC North, they've been
good to us. We've just literally just been betting the
dog in this division. I think they're hitting out like
a sixty percent clip this season.
Speaker 1 (41:29):
So North, all right, I'm gonna throw it at you.
I'm upset we didn't fade Washington this week, and maybe
that's influencing my decision making. I'm upset we didn't play
Tennessee this week. It's almost like the NFL schedule they knew,
they knew come Thanksgiving weekend they were going to have
(41:51):
a game that is going to play with the psyche
of betters in a way that tortures them all through
the week. Tennessee is a seven and a half point
dog at Washington right now. I think Washington's defense it's
not very good. I think Jane Daniels has been struggling.
I think interior pressure causes problems for him. Brian Robinson
(42:15):
got banged up in this game. I don't want to
do it. Tell me not to do it, and tell
me why.
Speaker 2 (42:25):
I would say, dude, if you can get the seven,
because I'm seeing almost all books are down to six.
So seriously, yeah, you're on the professional side right now.
The pros agree with you, which again makes sense.
Speaker 3 (42:36):
We've just talked about like that something's wrong with Washington
right now, but betting Tennessee, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (42:43):
What I'm betting on. I'm just simply betting the number.
That's all I know.
Speaker 3 (42:46):
At Tennessee right now, like that will let us to
carry you to these covers right now is literally.
Speaker 1 (42:52):
Rushing That line moved a full point through a key
number since we've been on the air. Yeah, because I
checked this right before we came on the air. Wow,
that's super frustrating. Goshdarn the almost holiday movie signed movie time?
Do you know what movie that's from?
Speaker 2 (43:12):
Christmas Vacation?
Speaker 1 (43:13):
Nice? I think that was before you were born. And
you know it.
Speaker 2 (43:17):
Yeah, I got VHS.
Speaker 1 (43:20):
Chess, Jesus Christ Carolina plus six and a half at
Tampa Bay Done book it, Let's go.
Speaker 2 (43:26):
I know we have to go. They know. That was
the line that jumped out to me too, where it's like,
you know, some books open at seven, some books opened
at six. Six and a half. Six feels right, That
feels like where this line should be.
Speaker 3 (43:41):
Because Tampa is I mean, we talked about they're like
the most complete team, no doubt in that division.
Speaker 2 (43:47):
Like they're they've just been unlucky.
Speaker 3 (43:49):
They lost those two games to Atlanta and games in
which they easily could have won, didn't break their way.
Speaker 2 (43:55):
They're just so well coached.
Speaker 3 (43:58):
You know, not that I I hope they're gonna lose today,
but everything about today was like they might look over
this Giants team and not really take them serious. They
came out there and just beat their ship out go
seventeen nothing like that.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
Yeah, they were not fucking around.
Speaker 3 (44:14):
And you know Mike Evans back, you see immediately how
big of a difference it mix that offense where it's
like he can just get you that five six yards
anytime you really need it.
Speaker 2 (44:25):
And we've seen it now.
Speaker 3 (44:27):
Bucky Irving, he's coming and really reshaped that team's running style.
Speaker 2 (44:31):
He just runs so hard.
Speaker 3 (44:34):
You know, it's just been so impressive watch him as
a rookie get better every week. And you know, Todd
Bowles is old school, he's still giving you know, I
think it's white.
Speaker 2 (44:42):
They're number one a lot of touches.
Speaker 3 (44:43):
But you know, Bucky Tommy, he's the he's the game
changer right now on that offense, like him with Baker
Mike Evans, like that's that's a really good offense right now.
And you know this Carolina team, we just talked about
it there. Their defense is bad, like teams are always
be able to move the ball on that The key
is for us with them, what type of rights young
(45:04):
we get in that day and when he's on this
offense is click. And then well they're what three straight covers?
Speaker 1 (45:09):
Now, yeah, straight two wins, three covers.
Speaker 2 (45:12):
They turned it around, they turn around and.
Speaker 1 (45:15):
Like this is a big favorite in a division game,
and so they're gonna be on the road.
Speaker 3 (45:22):
And then one more before we go. Just this, this
to me is like the stinkiest, funkiest line of the week.
Saints plus two and a half at home against this
Rams team. I told you I think the Rams are
gonna win tonight. So it's like, I'm not a rush
to bet this one, but i promise you me and
Chad gonna be on the Saints. Yeah yeah, Like that's
(45:43):
not that I like the match up for them, because
I've we've already seen how that Saints team is gonna be. Now,
like they're gonna be our run heavy team, which I love.
But if if the Rams went tonight, this will be
a perfect spot to sell on this team.
Speaker 1 (45:58):
Well, look, there's a lot of games we can discuss.
The forty nine ers or six and a half point
Dogs on the road at the bills. We don't know
the status of anybody for that game. We've heard brock
Perty is going to play a lot to talk about
next week. Super excited to unpack all of it. We
got the rams tonight. Even though Simon and I are
(46:20):
on opposite sides, I'm going to root for us to
be three and two. Let's against a root against my dollars.
I love Simon and I want him to be right,
and I want us to be good in the contest.
As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
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Conditioned restrictions apply. Catch our Thanksgiving mega episode live on
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We'll cover the whole Thanksgiving week board, all the picks,
all their segments. We'll announce our week twelve contest winner.
(47:26):
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