The Favorites - NFL Week 13 Best Bets - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bet three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday Week thirteen episode. We're going to break down
the entire slate of NFL games, the Thursday games, the
Friday game, the Sunday games, on and on. This is
our Thanksgiving week mega episode. We will not have a

(00:33):
Thursday episode, so every segment, big balls, boosted parlays from
BET three sixty five, the money line, underdog parlay, sharp calls,
any big bets will all be discussed today extra time
to linger over the podcast in advance of the Thursday games.
We will also discuss our exact decision our Simon says.

(00:54):
We will narrow down and probably get to our five
options to put into the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand
dollars Pro Football pick'em contest. We went two and three
last week, losing our final pick of the Rams plus
two and a half. Saquon Barkley may still be running
against the Rams defense. The Eagles defense may still be

(01:17):
pressuring Matthew Stafford. It's time to stuff our faces with bets.
We love for the Glorious thanks Giving Week live from
our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always by
my co host, my companion, my campadre, my BFF Professional

(01:37):
better Simon Hunter at swim in Seah.

Speaker 2 (01:41):
It doesn't it feel like this is our holiday weekend
as a football fan? This whole week, It's like we
got games Thursday games, Fridays games, Sunday, college football Saturday.
It's just it feels like this is our week. If
you're a football fan.

Speaker 1 (01:53):
It is an amazing week if you want to watch football.
We're lucky that Matt Mitchell are brilliant into producer, organizes
it so everybody gets all their football podcasts packed in
before everything begins and we get to just relax and
watch the Thursday games. In a moment, we'll recap the

(02:15):
results of week twelve in our contest, will announce the
winner of our big weekly cash prize. As our volume boss,
Colin Cowhard likes to say, there's a see of money
out there. There's a sea of money out there. By
the way, you can still sign up for the Favorites
one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest wins some
weekly prizes presented by Bet three six five. Visit Favorites

(02:37):
dot actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites podcast is presented by
Bet three six five and now new Bet three six five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets when
you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites
de Posita ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars,
get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

(02:58):
and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia.
We're eighteen and older. In Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Congratulations to Week eleven first

(03:21):
place winner B McSween three. B McSween went five and
zero nailed the Monday Night football tiebreaker. He's taken home
the max two thousand dollars. Weekly prize Our producer Matt
Mitchell has also selected his Producer's Cup award to the
entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.

Speaker 2 (03:44):
Have you heard about the Lords?

Speaker 3 (03:47):
Loser?

Speaker 4 (03:48):
He's a Louis About He's still kids on try.

Speaker 1 (03:56):
This week's Producer's Cup goes to Bruce Lee's Master, who
went onh and five missed the tiebreaker by four hundred yards.
Bruce Lee as Master. Email our producer at podcast at
Action network dot com to claim your price. One final
order of business super important. The New Favorites podcast Watch

(04:18):
Party is happening. It's time to RSVP Thursday, December twelfth.
It's coming up fast. It's at the Wicked Wolf in
Center City, Philadelphia. We're doing a hometown event for my bff,
Simon Hunter. We're gonna have drinks, We're gonna have a
live Q and A with me and Simon and Matt Mitchell.

(04:40):
It's gonna happen from six to six pm to eight pm.
Then we're all gonna hang out for the Thursday night
football game between the Rams and the Niners. RSVP for
this free event, RSVP, I'm begging you. Check out the
link in the podcast page or YouTube episode description. Can't
wait to see you there, RSVP, Come hang out with us.

(05:02):
Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you. All right, we
got this abbreviated schedule. We do want to hear how
the wise guys have reacted to our Sunday show. I
know Simon's on a forty eight hour coffee and two
binge of just betting his face off, trying to figure

(05:22):
out what's happening in the markets in a reduced window.
You've been hearing a lot from your neighborhood. Let's get
too sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (05:34):
Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain.

Speaker 1 (05:37):
Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what to do man?

Speaker 2 (05:43):
Yeah, let's just run through real quick for Thursday games. Right,
Professionals that I've talked to, they love the Bears, no shocker,
they've loved the Bears these last couple of weeks, and
it's been hitting for him, right, and they've been betting
the good number, and I think they're going back to that. Well,
you know that's a game we're gonna break down. But
nothing's changed for me. Still like Detroit would be great
if it goes under ten. I mean there's still some

(06:05):
ten and a halfs out there, a couple of tens
are popping up now, it'd be great if it gets
sound of nine and a half. So nothing changed for
me there, But yeah, the professionals on the other side,
the boys love my side for the Giants game, you know,
we'll talk about that one as well. I just I
love this spot for this Giants team against this Cowboys
team coming off that type of win. And we've just
known historical data backs that the public always loves the

(06:27):
Cowboys on Thanksgiving and they just do not cover. It's
just the way it is. It's just either getting a
free couple of points or you're just getting a ton
of value on the money line fading them. So that's
when I came with to dive into in the last
one again, we love I wish we could put in
the contest green Bay minus three and a half at home.
That's when we're obvious just gonna break down. But the
professionals love that. There was a little back and forth.

(06:48):
I know a couple guys that like Miami. I think
it stems to what we talked about the two and
the Jordan love questions, right, Like one guy has been
playing great these last couple of weeks. The other one
is not makes total sense. Get their argument, but that's
a game we'll dive into and I'll give them my
reason why. We just love this Green Bay spot and
obviously there's other reasons for it. But Vegas, I mean,

(07:09):
that's a professional game. A lot of the pros I
talked to you love that game. Obviously would have been
nice if you get the thirteen thirteen and a half,
but you know, that's a game. Another game I think
we might talk about. I know we can't pun the contest,
but you know it's my homes is a double digit favorite, right.
I think it's that simple, and I kind of was
overthinking it. It's like, I don't know if I wanna
betting on this Raiders backup, but it's all about playing

(07:32):
the number, right chet. So yeah, the professionals, everyone I've
talked to, they like, they like that side. So nothing
shocked in there. So let's get to the Sunday games,
a game I love every pro I've talked who loves
this side Chargers. I know what happened last night. People,
I know it's gonna leave a bad taste in their mouth,
but every pro I talked to is on the Chargers
against Atlanta, so little foreshadowing that might be. Simon says,

(07:54):
I love that number, especially at one and a half,
So that's just a game. A lot of guys have
talked about Jags Jets games. We'll talk about as well,
ugly games. The pros like it. We've seen the Jags
number come down. I've seen early Seattle money came in
and that number one up two and a half. I
think that honestly makes sense with everything going on in
the Jets camp. So nothing shocking there in the last

(08:17):
two Buffalo I know it's a shocker. A lot of
people six and a half seven professionals love that. It's
one of the best running teams against a team that
can't stop the run right now in the forty nine
Ers and a team me and Chad love, I have
no doubt will be one of our five Carolina Panthers
professionals love that side. You know this touch six and
a half in a couple of books went right back
down a six couple books, five and a half makes sense.

(08:40):
We love this Panthers team. We like this matchup. The
Bucks are a really good team. Are they good enough
to blow out a divisional opponent on the road and
back to back weeks, I don't think so. So Yeah,
I'm excited to break down these games. Show.

Speaker 1 (08:51):
God, you mentioned so many of the games that I
want to talk about today. On that first one up
Chicago at Detroit. That's a good job.

Speaker 2 (09:00):
I got us to ten.

Speaker 5 (09:01):
That's ten. That's nine in a row.

Speaker 2 (09:02):
How many you guys have won nine in a row
in here in the NFL. Yeah, it's saying something that's rare.

Speaker 3 (09:06):
All right, We're in rare air right now.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
All right, so we're doing something special, which we knew
we would.

Speaker 1 (09:10):
Detroit minus ten. As you just said, dude, it hit ten.
I don't know when you saw it. I saw it
this morning. This was a ten and a half. I
think even when I checked lines at six thirty or
seven this morning, it was still at ten and a half.
Now down to ten, and I love that for us,

(09:32):
Like the Bears had two games in which Caleb Williams
played well and they still lost in a coaching mismatch
with a lot of coaching mistakes. Right, Eberflus on the
road is historically bad. I know this feels like a huge, huge,

(09:55):
huge number, but all Jared goff In the line. Dou
Is cover go off thirty three and eleven against the
spread the past three seasons indoors. The last loss was
to the Texans in which they came back from a

(10:16):
million points and they still won by three. And they
lost to the Bucks in Week two. This is a
very physical football team that is consistent, and that's a
theme that I want to come back to later in
the show with another team. I'm excited to get your
take on that game that I want to talk about.
Let me define some some physical stats about the Lions.

(10:39):
Second overall in success rate offensively, second overall in success
rate for the run rush EPA, second, EPA overall. Third,
They're just great. I don't want to get in front
of this train.

Speaker 2 (10:59):
Yeah, it's a team that didn't have to play that
hard in the fourth quarter, right, they kind of took
their foot off the guests. On the flip side, this
Bears team just went overtime. Now they're on a short week.
It's like we're now we're talking about that. How big
of a deal that is for a noon kickoff, which
is pretty insane you really think about it, you know,
looking at this matchup, Chad, I think we both view

(11:19):
the Bears a team that have turned a corner here, right,
Kaleb Williams, You know, I saw some crazy steat. He's
one of the only quarterbacks I believe this season that
three for three yards two touchdowns against that have Vikings
defense without having a turnover, which, you know, knock the
kid as much as he went for that dumb sack
he gave up, but that's a veteran playing type of quarterback.
That's a really tough defense to have. Vikings defense all

(11:41):
season he played great. So I get what the professionals
coming on. This is such a huge number. They believe
that calebill will make it to the back door. Totally
get where they're coming from. But I'm the viewpoint of
what you just said. This Detroit team is different. They're
a total complete teams, special teams, defense and offense. It's
all there. And defensively, I've I think they're gonna actually
struggle the Bears against this Detroit defense in this spot.

(12:04):
And I look at the offense, like you just talked
about the running style. How do we not bank that
that's the Bears' biggest weakness and that's exactly what the
Troy wants to do. They want to impose their will.
So we already saw the crazy stats from Evan, the
fact that you know, favorites are ten points or more.
They're just covering machines on Thanksgiving. We talked about that,
and you know, golf, this is shocking with Detroit and

(12:27):
him and Campbell. He's zero to three straight up on Thanksgiving.
So last year he got upset straight up against Jordan Love.
It believe they were seven and a half point favorite
something like that, And obviously I was on Detroit side.
I cannot see that happening again with this team like it,
just like I get last year they got caught off guard.
But that Jordan Love team this is a totally different
steering air, a different spot. So yeah, this this one's

(12:49):
not gonna scare me off. Even if it was ten
and a half, I still would to take Detroit here
in this number.

Speaker 1 (12:54):
I've honestly, I haven't done it yet because I was
staring at the ten and a half, it was staying
at minus one ten, and I was just waiting, knowing
that there was some rumbling from the professional betting community
that they were on the bears. You could start to
see a little bit in how that money was moving
that I felt like it was going to go to ten,

(13:15):
and it still may go down further, So I'm happy
to wait here. You mentioned the rush Bears twenty sixth
in run stop win Ray, what basically means they're not
very good at getting off the ball. Their rush defense
is truly terrible. They've allowed fewer than one hundred and
nineteen rushing yards just three times this season, fewer than

(13:36):
one hundred yards just twice, once to Jacksonville. And we're
talking about a Lions team that runs the ball with
abandon on third and long like, because they play every series.
If it's it's a full four ounce, they play all
four downs. They don't give up twenty five percent of

(13:58):
their opportunities to get a first down. So third and
eight they're giving it to Jumior Gibbs and thinking, great,
we get four yards. We're going to go four on
fourth and four anyways, So it's a mismatch in every regard.

Speaker 2 (14:11):
Yeah, Just to finish it off, the trend stats from
Evan Thanksgiving favorites double digits, so ten points are more
eleven and zero against the spread. Since nineteen ninety, Favorites
of seven points or more Thanksgiving twenty nine and five
straight up, twenty five and nine against the spread. So yeah,
this is a day for trends, and that's a trend

(14:31):
you cannot ignore. We wanted to stay apparently at ten
chat that would actually good for us. This is great.

Speaker 5 (14:37):
You know, there's some things in life that just fit.
And I think when you talk about football, Thanksgiving, traditional
rivalries and being there, that's a good fit.

Speaker 2 (14:47):
Happy Thanksgiving to you.

Speaker 5 (14:49):
And Happy Thanksgiving to you, and we have it all
again today, the tradition of Thanksgiving and football.

Speaker 1 (14:54):
All right, you talked about the Giants. They're at Dallas.
The spread is four, or you said it on Sunday night.
This line has gone up in the past forty eight hours,
from two and a half to three all the way
to four and a half. There's a little buy back
at four and a half. I mean, look, I understand
the logic. I know what's the number we should play.

(15:16):
I don't really want anything to do with it. I'm
glad it's not going to be a contest play.

Speaker 2 (15:20):
I can't believe this. It feels like such a spot
for us. We just we can fait Cooper rush off
a dramatic win on the road coming Home now against
you know, Dany Vito just got destroyed. I mean they
got to the trash is a gold mine.

Speaker 1 (15:34):
He plays like Dana DeVito, but his name is Tommy DeVito.

Speaker 2 (15:38):
He's just terrible. So yeah, I'm just I get where
people are coming from. I get why your hesitation here,
But to me, I don't think the Giants are as
bad as they look. That was just a really well
prepared Buckston that just absolutely rolled them. You know, it
was not really a good prepared team. The Cowboys they're bad.
They're a bad coach team. So looking at this matchup

(15:59):
feels like we're getting what a free point and a
half here? This is this line has been bumped up
all up to four now at this point, So I
love it. And I talked about those trends that evn't
talked about where it's like, okay, the Cowboys are always
going a couple extra points right a quote unquote America's team,
especially on Thanksgiving, this is a unique spot where it's
like all the money is really pouring in all them,

(16:20):
like this is going to be probably the biggest knee dog,
And usually when favorites got a ton of money on Thanksgiving,
I picked them, right, that's that you want to be
on the really chalky side on Thanksgiving. But the Cowboys
are a little different. So you know, they're two and
eleven against the spread the last thirteen Thanksgiving games, feeling
to cover by nine points per game. That's pretty insane.

(16:41):
Off the top, they haven't won a back to back.
They haven't won it covered. I should say back to
back Thanksgiving game since Tony Roum went oh eight and
oh nine. So I guess if you're one of those
people that think they're due, I guess this is your spot.
Take the Cowboys here, and it is what we just
talked to. The Giants are reeling right now. It looks
like a good team that might have quit, but it's really

(17:03):
I just have to play this number and take this
plus four with this Giants teams.

Speaker 1 (17:07):
So hard to figure out when to block out the
noise and when to lean into the noise. Yeah, we
have two New York teams. You mentioned to the Jets
as being a wise guy play. We're going to get
into the Jets in a little bit and just a
little foreshadowing. The noise on the Jets right now doesn't
bother me at all. The noise on. The Giants completely

(17:29):
bothers me because I think they're so beaten down by
the fact that Saquan is running for two hundred and
fifty five yards and they just got rid of their
best quarterback. I think the players have lost faith in
management and the players. Malik Nighbors has clearly lost faith
in Brian Dables play conk. I'm not saying it's not
the right side. The number says it's the right side.

(17:51):
I'm trying to sort of cognitively separate when I decide
playing the right number over rides any noise that I'm
hearing from the team versus the noise doesn't bother me.
What is that? What is that mechanism? As you would say,

(18:14):
I'm overthinking it. Play the fucking number. Yeah, Miami at
Green Bay. Green Bay is minus three. We jumped on
it at three and a half. H I don't get it, like,
why did this move and did we jump on it
too soon? I get that Jordan Love isn't playing well,
which could be impacting the line a little bit. And

(18:37):
I know like perception wise, Tua has been great since
he came back, but he dominated the Raiders and the
Patriots and the Raiders were down by five with just
over three minutes left in the game. And I'm not
I'm not crediting them for beating the Rams. I think
the Rams beat themselves in that game. So why is

(18:59):
this line moving the other direction?

Speaker 2 (19:02):
Simon says, gimme green Bay minus three. Chad, we do
what s say. Wow, I don't get it. I love
this number. I think you're nailing it. Though. The general
public must just love to right now, right everyone's drinking
the two a cool ad. It's it's understandable that offense
did look really good and even their defense has looked

(19:23):
better these last couple of weeks. I'll give them some
credit for that. Like you know that that Rams win
has sparked something in them a couple weeks ago, where
you're right though, they've just been beating up on bad
teams since then. The Rams might be a bad team.
So you know, I don't think Green Bay is a
bad team, to say, playoff team. That's you know, in
one of the toughest divisions of football. And you know,

(19:43):
if they've been winning a lot of really tough, ugly games,
and I agree with you, like that that Bears game
I think taught them a lot. Not I'm not trying
to say it taught them a lot about Jordan Love,
but I think it made them realize they do need
to just lean on the run, right, that's their bread
and butter. Jacobs has kind of been the motor for them,
and that doesn't change for this matchup Miami. You know,

(20:07):
as good as they are running the ball, I don't
really think they're a good team at stopping the run,
and especially when it's cold. And like we talked about
these trends from Evan, he had some amazing trends just
about Miami and cold weather. And we know we're being
it to death, but it's like that's a real thing.
That team coming from the South up to the north
and it's gonna be really cold, right. I think they're

(20:28):
saying it could be in the twenties when this game starts,
like twenty five twenty six degrees, and you know, Miami
zero and four straight up. You know, when two is
playing with them in this cold weather, he's one and
three against the spread. They're feeling to cover by eighteen
points per game in those matchups, Like that's not fluky,

(20:49):
that's a real thing. And to me, the fact we're
getting minus three. Now. It's just totally about the perception
of the two quarterbacks. I just think the jerdnal love
hates going too far at this point, the Tua loves
getting too much love, and this is the kind of
a game that they come crashing back down on earth,
this Miami team, Right, So I'm running to grab that

(21:11):
minus three. I just I can just say going back
up to three and a half in the next couple
hours or maybe the next couple of days.

Speaker 1 (21:17):
Yeah, you can see in the app. I've already bet
the three and a half. I will as soon as
we get off the show, as long as it's still around,
bet the three as well. You mentioned to sort of
against the spread away from home versus winning teams. I
want to remind people when he beat the Rams, the

(21:40):
Rams were not a winning team, So Tua going on
the road to beat the Rams does not count as
all of a sudden they've reframed who they are. I
just think, like, this is the spot you bet against them.
I like the matchup, I like the trends. I think
it's in our favor. Matt Lafleur, excuse me. At home

(22:02):
twenty three and fourteen, as a favorite. That's sixty one percent.
Go peck go.

Speaker 3 (22:09):
Went no, it's not jump.

Speaker 1 (22:18):
All right. You mentioned the Chiefs and you said exactly
what I put in the script. Do we just suck
it up and bet the number? Do we not be
distracted or dissuaded by noise, perception, past experience, and the
emotion of it all. Patrick Mahomes is a ten point
favorite in the division forty five percent, and it's happened
twenty one times for all divisions. By the way, the

(22:40):
against the spread record for Phasian the spot is forty
eight percent, so he's actually worse than sort of the
average for every other division. This number is down from
thirteen and a half. I don't know if it's going
to be de Desmond, ridder Aid and O'Connell, ken Stabler.

(23:00):
I think we're just betting the twelve and a half.

Speaker 2 (23:03):
Yeah, it's they don't feel good about it, but this
is what we did. It's just playing the number. And
I wanted, honestly to be on the Chiefs, and I
was trying to find reasons to lie to myself for
It's like, no, this is the spot to take them,
but man, they have what three games in the next
sixteen to fifteen days something crazy where it's like they

(23:24):
got to play this game, then they got a Saturday game,
and they have the whatever that is a Wednesday game
because of Christmas in the next couple weeks, Like December
is a really weird month. The next twenty five days
is gonna be very weird for this Chiefs team. So
we saw Carolina, they let them get back in the
game because they take the foot off the gas. And uh,
it's not shocking anyone that he's never covered as a

(23:44):
bigger than a ten point favorite. Mahmes. He just even
when they had all those dominant teams a Tyreek Hill,
that's pretty shocking. They never covered as a big favorite
right there there. Whoever, it is four and one. They
pushed Uh one time at landed right on ten. So
we talk all the time, we're just taking the number,
taking the value, and yeah, we'll take this Raiders at
either plus thirteen plus twelve and a half and just

(24:05):
pray we get a find like a backdoor here on
like what they did last week.

Speaker 1 (24:09):
Look, I think the number is going to go up
because I think people will come in on Black Friday
and see, oh my god, the Chiefs are playing the Raiders.
Are you kidding me? And what? I don't actually think
the Chiefs take the foot off the gas. I think,
and we've seen this for a couple of years. They're
just entirely different team in the second half. We even
saw it against the Bills, Like they go for long

(24:31):
sustain drives. They have the benefit of Patrick Mahomes who
converts third downs at an other worldly rate fifty two
point seven percent converting third downs. That is like third
best this century. I read that on ESPN Dot Calm
this morning. And that allows them to be more conservative

(24:55):
in their play calling in the second half to bleed
the clock. They know, oh, if the game is close
and they get an opportunity with Patrick Mahomes, there's no
value in putting themselves in a position to be in
a shootout, or to put themselves in position to make
bad turnovers that will give the other team an advantage.
So just go slow, and I think that allows teams
that are big dogs to stay in it for longer.

(25:18):
That's what I think. What do you think of that?
That's pretty good.

Speaker 2 (25:22):
It's an interesting theory.

Speaker 1 (25:25):
By the way you say it, it feels a little bit
like you're like you're patting me on the head.

Speaker 2 (25:30):
Well, they're the best second half team in all football, right, Evan.
I mean they no one covers more than the Chiefs
in the second half. They're just they're great to run
the ball down team's throat and just burn the clock
and their defensive stout. But I just agree, I do
agree with what you're saying.

Speaker 1 (25:43):
Okay, it doesn't feel like you support it. I gave
it a lot of thought and you're like, eh, just
bet the number. Guess what. It's time for Big Balls
Better the Week presented by our friends at Tommy John.
If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.

(26:05):
That's right. I put on my TJ's this morning, my
favorite pod underwear for the show. Great games start with
great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest. They also sent
us some great swag like the new banner over my
shoulder and at Tommy John Football that is like the
most grippable football. I cannot wait to rip it outside

(26:29):
in the backyard and just sling this thing. It's it's
having on my Tommy John's that makes it possible for
me to say that our Big Balls Better of the
Week is going to be the New York Jets plus
two and a half against Seattle.

Speaker 2 (26:45):
This sucks and it's horseshit, But I'm too polite to
say anything because I'm a class act.

Speaker 1 (26:51):
Everything I said about the Giants leaning away from the noise,
I'm leaning into it with the Jets. And I know
you agree here, I know the wise guys agree. You
mentioned it, and sharp calls Woody Johnson, the owner of
the Jets. He's basically entered his Montgomery Burns slash George
Steinbrenner phase of his ownership reign. He's done being the

(27:15):
quiet guy. He doesn't say anything wearing his Jets hat.
He is firing his coaches without telling one. He is
trading for DeVante Adams without telling anyone. He's thinking about
benching Aaron Rodgers the coup de gras. Last week, he

(27:37):
fired hiss GM after landing on the practice field in
a helicopter. At that moment, the GM Joe Douglas joked
to a coach he was standing next to, if I
don't come back, it's been a pleasure to serve with you,
and then he did actually get fired. The helicopter landing

(27:58):
is kind of my favorite part of all this, Like
fuck this noise. Literally, I'm so done with all you people.
I think you know, off of Bye, I think it's chaos.
No reason to back Geno Smith off at two games
in which he's like slinging red zone interceptions but still

(28:21):
making valiant comebacks in the final two minutes. Give me
the Jets. Jets, Jet Jets.

Speaker 2 (28:29):
Yeah, this is such a spot we can't avoid. I'm
with you. It feels a little sick, right, It's it's
like Baine saying we were born in the darkness. It's
it's really a sick play. But it's a number. We
have to take this numbers move too much off Seattle
when that yes, their defense played really well, but me
and Chat both agreed. I felt like that was more
about Kyler than anything else. I did go back watched

(28:51):
Out twenty two and he did have guys open, and
when you do break it down, it's like, Okay, this
Jets team, for all that the hell is going on
with them, they still have an all that can move
the ball. I know that people are just down on Rogers, right.
They think they're either gonna cut them and release them
just because the owner hates them and everything terrible going on.

(29:13):
I totally get the public reception right now, but we
don't really think that way. We're really just playing the numbers.
And the fact that this has moved two and a
half because it's his negative vibes with the Jets is
a very bizarre movement here and makes total sense of
the public is just hammering this number. It's one of
the more bet on sides right now early in the week,
which is shocking because usually people don't really bet the Sundays,

(29:35):
right They're gonna put all their money into the Thursday
games and then they'll roll it over into the Sundays.
But that's how bad this Jets use. Guys are already
putting their parlays and their teasers together with this Seahawks team,
and I just look at this matchup. Is the Jets
ris bad public perception? I know they're three and eight,
but it's like after the bye week, Chad, like you

(29:56):
just said, isn't this it Like, isn't this their last stand?
I mean at this point with the number, it's just
it feels like it's too good to pass on in
just the matchup wise as well, I think there's a
lot of ways they can actually get get after Genos
Smith and offensively that they can move the ball against
the Seahawks defense. So yeah, give me them at plus
two and a half every time.

Speaker 1 (30:17):
I mean, that's terrible. I know we haven't really been
on the Jets at all since almost Week one.

Speaker 2 (30:23):
Took a nice break from them.

Speaker 1 (30:24):
Yeah, we loved them week one against the Niners, and
we've sort of walked away from them. It's funny how
we both sort of felt like this might be the time.
To me, this is it's as much a bet against
Gino in Seattle. I don't think we really know who
this team is yet, and I don't know that we're
taking a lot from a last second win against a

(30:49):
very challenged San Francisco team that was impacted directly by
Nick Bosa being out of that game. And that was
the difference. Like if you go back and look, they were,
they were in good shape in that game. He was
playing great, Gino was playing confused and discombobulated, and then
he goes out and Gino gets that last two minute

(31:11):
drive and they win the game. And last week, like
he was not good, it was the Cardinals who were bad.
So I think they're getting they're getting a bounce for
being a public perception bounce, not a performance bounce. Simon.
Speaking of performance, we're in the final weeks of the

(31:32):
NFL season, good or bad. This is when reputations are made.
If you want to earn the reputation as an elite
gift giver, then you need to gift the ultimate gift
of comfort and confidence, the gift of Tommy John. Black

(31:54):
Friday is this week and a cornucopia of comfort or waits.
Let's break out our holiday gifts lists. Let's identify those
lucky men and women who deserve the perfect gift, the
perfect fit and the silky smooth support of Tommy John underwear. Simon,

(32:16):
why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John
this season?

Speaker 2 (32:20):
It's the gift that last Chad.

Speaker 1 (32:23):
Listen, before the show, you were talking about how much
you liked Tommy John. I know you're loving it. The
Black Friday Sale has begun. If you want to be
the goat, the greatest gifter of all time, head to
Tommy john dot com slash favorites for forty percent off
in their Cyber Monday sale. These are the lowest prices

(32:46):
and best deals of the year bar none save forty
percent sight wide for a limited time at Tommy john
dot com. Slash Favorites Pittsburgh at Cincinnati numbers at two
and a half. What's most surprising to me about this, Simon,
is that we questioned betting Mike Tomlin as a dog

(33:10):
on the road off of the loss. The number touched
three for a minute on Monday. I bet at three.
You can see it in the app. Am. I you
would tell me not to overthink, but you and I
actually haven't talked about this game at all, and I
can't tell from your expression as I normally can when

(33:31):
you're all in with me or.

Speaker 2 (33:32):
Not get them ready to take the failed every series.

Speaker 4 (33:35):
I'm not all in, but I am betting it, but
I'm there are a little hesitation here with me.

Speaker 2 (33:47):
With Pittsburgh. It's like when do we get off the
train that we've been riding all season because they had
been really good to us, and we fade them last
week and it was a nice spot and I think
we even mean you joked about like a lot of
those games that we bet them on, it was really
about the Tomlin and the number in the spot, and
it's like, we don't know how we covered those numbers.
It just got there. We feel very fortunate to get there,

(34:07):
and I think most Pittsburgh's fans feels fortunate. But yeah,
the fact that, you know whatever, Cincinnati is four and
seven and they're a three point favorite here is pretty
telling where it's like they just know this division is
really weird, where it like, doesn't you throw the records
out right, and it's all about the matchups and that's
what they're kind of banking on here. So if you
can stuck at the plus three on Pittsburgh, I would

(34:29):
take it, you know, I just I don't want to
be backing since even at two and a half, I
just I feel more confident in Pittsburgh. I trust the
trust and number, I trust what they have, which is
a really good defense and offense that with Russell Wilson
as a move in the ball. Like for the most part,
I know obviously last week wasn't their best game, but
like that was just a fishy, short week Thursday game.

(34:49):
So that's what I might having a hard time. I'm
not trying to react to just that one game. And
just like you said, trust Tomlin in this spot against
the Bengals team that you know, as great as Joe
Burrow has been They've been overrated all season, and like
the number reflects that. Like every week for the most part,
people have come in on their side and just been disappointment,
and they don't care. They come back the next week

(35:09):
just because Joe Burrow is just putting up video game numbers.
So yeah, it's all about the number, right, So shop
around find that plus.

Speaker 1 (35:16):
Three Towlin is the most profitable coach as a dog
the past twenty years, covering it a sixty two percent
clip on the road, same is true, same number as
a dog in the division. On the road, the number
goes up to sixty four percent when the spread is

(35:37):
between one and three. If this was three, I'd make
it my exact decision.

Speaker 3 (35:42):
I know.

Speaker 2 (35:43):
I'm so bummed to drop down because that would have
been right right on the nose. That'd been a great pick.

Speaker 1 (35:47):
It would have been the exact number that I wanted
it to be at. You gotta check the numbers, folks,
set the alerts in the Action Network app. It may
get back there. I have a feeling if it gets
to three going to be one o'clock in the morning
when only people like Simon are checking and wise guys
will buy it at three again, but be on the lookout.

Speaker 2 (36:07):
So bit we set responsibility for that. We will not
go gently. We're going to unleash hell here in December.
We're gonna go into tack mode because we have to,
because that's what's required.

Speaker 1 (36:18):
Indie at New England, really interesting game. The line opened
at Colts one and a half. It moved quickly. For
the record, I bet it at two and a half.
I wish we had kind of discussed this on Sunday.
Do you feel like we missed it? I kind of
feel like we missed it on Sunday. I don't know why.
Maybe we were a little bit sort of clouded by
our faith in the Colts being shattered against the Lions.

(36:42):
But I feel like we missed the opportunity to buy
it a little bit shorter.

Speaker 2 (36:47):
I mean there's still two and a halves out there
if you like the Colts. I got no issue with it.
I got no read on this game. I'll be honest, Chad,
like I want to take the Colts with you, especially
at two and a half. It feels a good number,
but it's like another thing where it's like why is
this not three three and a half? Like who is
backing the Patriots after what just happened in Miami. Like,
it's only going to be professionals, not anyone on the

(37:08):
public side. So it's just a little bit of a
fishy line. That's maybe my hesitation here because I think
the Colts are a better coach team, a better team
on the field. Like it just feels like a nice
spot to back this Colts team, especially after what six
point performance against one of the best teams in all
of football. But we've seen teams that played Detroit for
some reason, they're just beat the hell the following week

(37:30):
and they've struggled this year. It's crazy that other teams
just beat the hell out of them like that. So yeah,
if you came to me Sunday morning, you were like,
it's still two and a half. I really love the
Colts here. I love this matchup. I'm not going to
fight John it just because I've loved this Colts team
all season. It's really about playing the number two where
if it's under three, I agree with you that the
value is on the Colts here. I just I haven't

(37:51):
pulled the trigger on either side betting this one.

Speaker 1 (37:55):
I guess I look at this as the Colts against
the best team in the NFL, not as the Colts
being a bad team. Yeah, we know they're effective on
the ground. We know they have an offensive line that
is top five in run blocking metrics. We even saw
like Anthony Richardson dominated in that first quarter as a runner.

(38:18):
And sure we've been happily surprised with Drake May it's
throwing the ball, but the Colt secondary is actually really good,
like top five and deep coverage, which is where Drake
does his damage. Seventh in coverage when they blit ninth
against play action. Play action is what helps rookie quarterbacks
the most. If New England could effectively run the ball,

(38:40):
but they can't and their bottom five and stopping their
run and it's the worst pass defense in the league,
and it's the lowest ring team according to DVA DVOA.
I'm so close to making it the exact decision, but
I'm not doing it. Second game in a row. I
like them, I like them, I've bet them. You can
see it in the app with the Steelers and the Packers,

(39:01):
but it's not the exact decision. Arizona Minnesota three and
a half. I guess I feel like this is the
exact right line. I think the Vikings are better across
every metric. The line reflects it. I can't I can't
find a reason to want to back Kyler here, can
you No?

Speaker 2 (39:20):
And I have it at four and a half. So
it's like, okay, model likes the Vikings. I kind of
like the Vikings as well. On the spot, it's like
we've seen this Cardinals team. They are good, but a
lot of their wins, like we joke about, they feel
like they've been a little lucky about the spots they've
been in that when they do face we're the good teams,
they kind of get dominated, right And you know, not
that I'm saying Stocksford a good team last week, I think,

(39:42):
you know, like I said, Kyler hadn't missed opportunities. But
this Vikings team, I've come around on it. We're like
they're a good team. Like San Darnold in that game
against the Bears, he was next to flawless, Like he
really played an amazing game.

Speaker 1 (39:56):
He was great, actually was better, he was better after
he got knocked out for the play. Nick Marlins comes in,
converts the first down. Sam Donald comes limping back on
and he was fucking throwing darts. And dimes and lasers.

Speaker 2 (40:14):
Yeah, I love the call by Kimin o'contoo, and like
you know, they're bringing the backup quarterback and he just
has a really perfect play out up for an easy
read pass.

Speaker 1 (40:22):
He's such a good coach.

Speaker 2 (40:23):
Now he's in his back, He's really good. And that
was another game where Justin Jefferson was shut down. Right,
I think he had two catches total.

Speaker 1 (40:30):
Jalen Johnson, Yeah, but like he still who says Jalen
Johnson's not top one hundred.

Speaker 2 (40:37):
Sam Donald still had a great game, which is just like, Okay,
he's using all his weapons. And we haven't talked much
about TJ hockets are coming back for that offense. How
big of a deal that was. So Yeah, I think
they're a better team. Like you just said, the number,
I agree with. It does feel right, makes sense. Like
Kyler was a dog, He's actually been pretty profitable in
these type of spots, especially when it's above a field goal.

(41:00):
But I do think that they're gonna struggle against his
Vikings defense and offensively, I just trust his Vikings team
be able to move the ball, especially against a Cardinals
team that we've seen this season, like they run that zone.
They make it really tough to score in the red zones.
But when they go against really good coaching that can
scheme things up, like we stuck with Kevin O'Connell, they'll
find holes. He's gonna find ways for them to begin
the end zone. They had been doing it all season.

(41:21):
So yeah, to me, numbers three four and a half.
It's three and a half. I'm gonna take that value
on the Vikings right now.

Speaker 1 (41:27):
It did come down a tick. It was it for
so a little bit of money came in on the
on the Cardinals there at four and moved down to
three and a half. But I think I agree with you,
not a contest play if it's if you have to
bet it, bet the Vikings. The next game Tennessee at Washington.

(41:48):
It's at five and a half. So frustrating. This was
at seven right before we went on the air on Sunday.
I wrote it down on our list to talk about
on Sunday, and while we were on the air, it
had moved from six and a half to six. I
wanted up for the record. We could clip it if

(42:08):
we have to. You said I was sharp. If you
remember saying that. Can I get confirmation.

Speaker 2 (42:14):
Yeah, because you were ahead of the movement.

Speaker 1 (42:16):
That was a good call, was ahead of the move
I feel like I need a little bit more positive affirmation.
You know, Matt Mitchell was yelling at me all morning, So.

Speaker 2 (42:25):
Uh, you're a star, Chad. Don't worry about that.

Speaker 1 (42:27):
Oh my god, you didn't have to say that. That's
that's too much. Chad Milman is proud of himself. Now
it's down to five and a half. And look, I
think there are so many reasons to fade the commanders here.
We've hit the cliff cliff, the cliff Kingsbury second half
of the season where his teams have historically fallen off

(42:49):
the cliff. And you know, I love Bill Barnwell. If
you want more details on this, read Barnwell's column from
Monday on ESPN dot com. He went through this whole
me of reasoning that shows the cliff cliff. It's all circumstantial,
right Like in college, the cliff cliff happened because he

(43:10):
went from playing bad teams to playing good teams in
his conference. In the pros with Kyler, he went from
having Kyler to Kyler being consistently injured in the second
half of the season and not always having him, so
you can see the logic. But whatever the reason, it
always happens. And now Jaden Daniels is struggling. So part
of that has to be he's not making the right

(43:31):
adjustments for his team and the personnel that he has,
and they continue to do the things that he might
scheme up for the best players he has. Maybe Jaden
Daniels struggling because of his rib injury, the running game
is struggling. We have to ask ourselves, Simon, maybe I'm
trying to convince you is a defense that is twenty

(43:52):
first in past rush, twenty ninth in coverage, good enough
to force Will Levis into making enough stakes. That's the
only reason we wouldn't bet the Titans is Will let us.

Speaker 2 (44:07):
Yeah, this is uh the Will Levis. You know, he
just throws deep like there is no other way to
describe but his is playing style. He's either getting sacked,
throwing a pick six, or throwing a perfect dime twenty
five yards downfield, like you know on a rope or
a touchdown. There there's no one between. So you just
said it. I honestly thought we would get to six

(44:27):
six and a half just because of what we talked
about where it's like the general public guy thought would think, Okay,
Will Love is coming off a win, easy spot to
fade him and take a Washington team that you know,
I said earlier in the year they were one of
my favorite teams to watch. But we talked that the
way he was playing, Jaye Daniels was looked like a
guy who had never been hit before in the NFL. Right,

(44:48):
he was so calm, cool in the pocket, took what
the defense would give him, either run it or have
some amazing play where he put the ball downfield. Now
he looks like someone that's like every time he's thinking
about taking the ball on he's just like, do I
want to break my ribs again? Is this worth the
scramble here? And he's in between different reads And even
that game against Dallas, like he didn't get going until

(45:10):
they put him in the two minute drill offense, which
again I don't get why they don't just run all
the time. He looks so much more comfortable when they
spread everyone out and let him kind of dictate the
way the offense is going to run. Yeah, this is
I guess my hesitation is just the Will Loves factor.
Chad but you just now it's like playing let's just
play this number. This number should be closer to three
and a half. Four. This is not this washing team

(45:32):
they were early in the year. They don't deserve this
much respect that they're getting still from the bookmakers. So
unfortunately we missed the six. But I would still take
this down to three and a half.

Speaker 1 (45:42):
I mean, I'm so this was top two for my
executive decision.

Speaker 2 (45:49):
Holy shit, pick one already, all right, I'm doing it.

Speaker 1 (45:56):
Tennessee Titans exec decision plus five and a half.

Speaker 2 (46:00):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
av your honors?

Speaker 3 (46:05):
Text to kill number?

Speaker 1 (46:07):
Executive decision, let's freaking do it. Gonna play the number.
Houston at Jacksonville. You mentioned Jacksonville was a wise guy
played here. The numbers come down. Look, if we were
betting every game, we would take the Jags. We are
not betting every game. I'm having a hard time seeing
it with Mac Jones, even off a bye. This is

(46:27):
a dreadful, dreadful team. I know the number is too big.
I know Houston's struggling, but they did get Will Anderson back.
They did sack Will Levis eight times last week in
the first half or however many times it was. And
unlike will Levis, mac Jones is terrible throwing the ball downfield.
He has no redeeming qualities as a quarterback. So I'm

(46:48):
struggling with this one.

Speaker 2 (46:50):
Yeah, which is understandable. It's honestly to me about playing
the number in this Jags team, how they've been historically
against Houston, right even when they had bad players and
bad quarters, and you know, they're one of the worst
teams on football. I mean even the Minshew days, it
feels like they would play pretty well against this Houston team.
I could be miss risk for memering. But you know,
the number, like you said, has come down, So I'm

(47:13):
not going to force you to put it in check
because I did get the best of the number. And
it's like, I'm not going to force it, but can
I make it? Force it into the money line? Rob
and Robin like, can we please take the Jags on
the money line? Coach? Totally this defense, this this division
to me is totally wonky up in the air, where
every team has issues and red flags and things you
can kind of attack and expose. And right now, this

(47:36):
Houston team, you would think this would be the perfect
spot to them to get back on track. But we've
seen it now where CJ's is not great as a favorite,
he's just he just does not cover as he does
when he's a dog usually, So you know that's that's
kind of been his his problem this season is he's
a guy who you know, one play he'll look great

(47:56):
and have the perfect deep ball to Nico Collins and
the next one was like makes inexcusable picks in his
own territory with thirty seconds left in the half. It's
like he was more veteran like last year than he
has been this year. This year he's been more happy
feet panic, not really sinking into the offense, trusting where
that could because he's still taking a lot of hits
chat just like last year. So you know that does

(48:18):
wearing a player, especially someone into their second year. So, uh,
I get your hesitation here. It's not fun backing mac
Jones as a dog in this spot, but it is
really about playing this number. This number, I have a
closer to four. It's only five, kind of a dead
zone number. It's I'm not going to force you to
take this one.

Speaker 1 (48:36):
I think I think that the Texans offensive line is
just so bad. Yeah, that he's uncomfortable, and I think
schematically teams have changed what they're doing against him from
last year and that's also making him a comfortable still
a huge fantas CYJ. Stroud. But yeah, let's just not

(48:56):
even talk about this one anymore, because I do want
to talk about the Chargers the Falcons. I could not
come up with a take here, and like, I wanted
to love the Chargers, but I worry about their pressure
on Kirk Cousins and can they really do things that
will make Kirk Cousins uncomfortable as a dog at home?

(49:17):
So I liked hearing that the wise guys were on
the Chargers a little bit. Tell me what you're thinking
and what you're hearing.

Speaker 2 (49:23):
Now, did you watch that Charges game with the Ravens
last naar or no?

Speaker 1 (49:26):
Every second? You know why? I tailed Sean Kerner, who
had will Disley over thirty nine and a half receiving
yards and through fifty eight minutes. In about thirty seconds,
he had thirty eight, three targets, three catches, including the

(49:46):
first catch for eighteen yards, and Justin Herbert like was
dropping back two seconds through downd Field was barely looking
for Disley, so I was just sweating him getting one
more dump off and he got it in the final drive.
So yes, I watched every second of the game, and honestly,
I watched every second of the game and thought it
completely changed when JK. Dobbins went out and it puts

(50:10):
so much pressure on Herbert and the offensive line is
not very good in the middle of the line that
they couldn't really function. So I don't know if JK.
Dobbins is playing this week. I don't know what the
status is, but I thought that had an impact on
the game.

Speaker 2 (50:23):
I agree. I thought Chargers though that you know, even
though they did lose, they showed me a lot of
knocks in the game where it's like, you know they
are a playoff team that you know they run into
a jugging out like Lamar, if he's on, what are
you gonna do? Like that was such a Lamar Derek Henry.
That combo just kills you as the game goes along,
and you know, early on I believe it was ten nothing.

(50:46):
It's like, you know, there's Chargers team, they're really good,
but they can't be kicking those field goals and we
go talk all the time Lamar is gonna get his eventually,
and you know him getting that touchdown right before half
and then getting the ball back to start the second half,
it's like he's such a killer with that. We talk
all the time. There's veteran quarterbacks that do that. You know,
it's such a game changer getting that fourteen point swing.

(51:08):
So this Chargers team, to me, when we're looking at
this match, we gets Atlanta, They're like what Atlanta wants
to be. They're well coached, tough as hell, and consistent
defensively and offensively. And you know, the hesitation for me
is just they're traveling in a short week, right, Isn't
that not ideal? Especially after playing that Ravens team against

(51:31):
you know, Atlanta team coming off their bye week, Like,
I get the rest advantages towards them. So we've seen
earl here that you know, the public has come in
on Atlanta like that makes whole sense to me. But
you know, from my perspective, a lot of the pros
I've talked to, it's just like the Chargers are a
better team. They're just being overlooked because they were just
in a Monday night game and they just got Lamart,

(51:52):
Like It's no fault of that Chargers team. It's you know,
the big brother always beats a little brother, right, That's
just how it is. So I think we're getting good
value here. I was honestly gonna make this, Simon says,
but a couple of books have already moved it to two.
But you can still get the one and a half.
I love this number on the Chargers team, that just
they are the more complete team. Reminds me a little

(52:12):
bit when the Seahawks came in and played this Atlanta team.
This kind of matchup of you know, two teams that
we've seen in the Atlanta team, they're just not that
good against really good teams or just teams that are above,
you know, the bottom feeders of their own division. So,
you know, if if we can sell on this NFC
South against this team, then the charge that we believe

(52:35):
it's gonna be the seven or six seed in the AFC,
how do they not bounce back and win this game.
This is a must win for this Chargers team, especially
if they hope to get that back door seed, because
we've seen it like Denver's coming for them, like they're
coming for that last remaining playoff spot. So yeah, I
like this Chargers team being desperate here especially had a
key number under two. Yeah, it's a great matchup. Do

(52:55):
you want to make it foxhol or do you have
another game in mind?

Speaker 1 (52:58):
No, I would do foxhol with the Chargers with me, Yeah,
I'll do it. I'll do it. I'll go foxhole because
you know what, it scares me, and I do think
that people are going to want to bet Atlanta. They're
coming off a bye they're at home. It's a short week,
huge travel for the Chargers, not even like middle of
the country travel, like we're going deep South travel. You
got to take that extra forty five minutes on the

(53:19):
plane travel. So uh, it's a tough spot. So we've
got a lot of things working against us. So yeah,
let's foxhole it. Los Angeles Chargers minus two right now? Fantastic.

Speaker 2 (53:31):
You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

Speaker 1 (53:38):
Oh God, Tampa Bay at Carolina, it's at six. Let's
move from six and a half to six. We know
the wise guys are on it. We talked about it
on Sunday. We leaned Panthers. I just wonder can we
go back to the well, Like, can the Panthers at
plus six be in our contest? Forget about betting them.
We got to bet them. We like the number, we
like the spot. We think it's still too much tilted

(54:02):
towards Tampa Bay. But can we put him in the contest?

Speaker 2 (54:09):
Uh? I would even if it was five and a half,
I could force us to put it in. I just
we saw last week with this Carolina team, like there,
it feels like their offense has really figured things out.
They're kind of inner groove here. And you know, obviously
Bryce Young was out of this world good last week.
We saw the crazy numbers. He was like not perfect

(54:29):
against the blitz, but just about perfect against it. Like
he always made the right read, which you know, that
was why he was drafted where he was at he
was Apparently he was like a football genius and that
was one of the things they fell in love with that,
Like this guy was so good at reading defense and
picking things up, and we hadn't seen that for about
a year and a half. And whatever's changed for him

(54:50):
sitting out and be on the sideline and him embracing
it it's worked. I mean, his last three games, his
last three covers, Like we've all seen it. So I'm
with you, it's a little scary because it's like we
we've been riding these guys and we're gonna go back
for one more. But it really is just about this
match with Tampa that we've seen it. Tampa, they're they're
a good team. We know they're better obviously with Mike

(55:10):
Mike Evans back, but they're not the team that you
know they just blow out the Giants and they just
they don't do that right. They usually keep keep games
pretty damn close. That's what their m has been, especially
since Baker's been there, and this divisional game and this
matchup them on the road. We like Carolina at home,
like that's we've always joked about. But Carolina has just
been better with Bryce Shawn at home. Uh, in these

(55:30):
outdoor matchup. I mean even last year, going back to
one of our favorite bets was Carolina Evernce that Houston
team and it was outdoors and I remember Houston was
getting all the love and somehow Carolina pulled the upset.
It's just the type of team they are where it's
like they're for some reason better at home, especially as
a dog. And this this is no different. This is
another game where we're definitely gonna force this one in
the money line around Robin Jeez. We've got like.

Speaker 1 (55:54):
The Colts and if we can get the good number
the Steelers but also the Jet Tennessee the Chargers traveling
potentially injured Carolina. Now we're getting back to our roots
and look forgetting any analysis. If we were just looking

(56:16):
at public perception and the number, it'd be a no brainer.
Bucks coming off of a blowout win Baker ballin Panthers.
Still Losers played well, but it's still Bryce Young in
the perception of that, So it makes sense that we're
talking about it. I just don't like it. La Rams

(56:41):
at New Orleans New Orleans plus three. This one's ticked
up a little bit plus three. You like this one
with the Saints on Sunday. I don't know if we're
still feeling that way. You and I have vastly different
opinions on the Rams. On the Rams and the Eagles
last week, and my issue with the Rams, and I'm

(57:01):
sort of supporting the Saints. I'm not saying I want
to do it is I think their offensive line is terrible,
even healthy, they just they they've been wildly inconsistent in
protection and overall on offense. We saw it against the Dolphins,
we saw it against the Patriots, both of those things.
Bad offensive line play, inconsistent execution against the Eagles. Like,

(57:24):
does our opinion change now that the Rams have lost
so badly? McVeigh on the road as a favorite off
a loss twenty seven, nineteen to three, Like it feels
like a better spot for the Rams, which could be
why it's ticked up.

Speaker 2 (57:43):
Yeah, coming to my old thought was that the Rams
have struggled against the run. And I know that sounds
like a weird way to back the Eagles a previous speak,
but I thought the Rams were going to move the
ball against he was defense and that they would have
a lead and they would have to you know, not
that though the Eagles stop running ball. But I feel
like that was gonna be the game changer that once
I got a lead, Eagles be pressing having to pass
the ball, Barye. That's what the Eagles don't want to do.

(58:05):
The Rams, man, their their defense is way worse against
the run that even I thought, and that's what the
Saints want to do. They want to run the ball,
and we always talk about that's what their identity has
been like when they were being great early in the season,
it was because they ran the ball and they could
set up play action putting the ball downfield. And that's
really been what the the key to the success has

(58:25):
been for this Saints team this year. So yeah, I
don't feel as strongly as I do it back because
what you just said, like the Rams, this is this
is for their season now, like this is it this
If they lose this, they know that they're playoffs, it's all,
it's totally over. I mean, it already might be over.
But I get that that's why this numbers kicked up, right,

(58:46):
I think the public and the pros are and look
from that standpoint of you know, I think the Rams
are still a better team. They're still healthy offensively. If
it turns into a shootout, who would you rather have
Stafford or Derek Carr. So I totally get their perspective
of this game in this matter, But it really is
to me, comes down to what the Saints team wants
to do. Run the ball. And you know, they might

(59:06):
have found something last week with Taysom Hill, like that
that there is always a point where they put him
in until he gets hurt. And we don't know if
this week we will get hurt. But when he is running,
that switch up is pretty deadly. And we just seen
the Eagles the way they just ran down this RAMS
team's throat, like you can make huge holes. They don't
have an Aaron Donald in that middle that really can

(59:26):
give you any type of fits to run the ball
against this Rams team. So that's my perspective of the Jets, Like,
am I going to make this one of our five chat?
And I probably won't force it in there.

Speaker 1 (59:35):
We still got a couple of games to talk about
that I feel pretty good about, okay, including the Eagles
at Baltimore.

Speaker 2 (59:41):
It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

Speaker 1 (59:45):
Baltimore's not a three point favorite after they'll win over
the Chargers last night. It's gone up from two and
a half to three. Lamar as last night favorite of
three or lass or a dog twenty six and six
in the regular season against the spread. So the questions
that we have to ask ourselves, do we think the
Ravens defense improved? Do we think they just got lucky

(01:00:07):
that JK. Dobbins didn't play in the second half. Do
we think the Eagles are potentially overvalued because of what
Saquon did? Like I thought they did to the Rams
exactly what they're great at. They rushed the passer, they
ran the ball, They dominated at the line of scrimmage.
What I will say about the Eagles if we're comping

(01:00:31):
to last night, is that there are a couple of
times where Quentin Johnston couldn't make the play. AJ Brown
will make that play against a relatively weak Ravens secondary.
This was my other choice for executive decision, playing the
Eagles plus three.

Speaker 2 (01:00:53):
Yeah. I think the move here though, is just if
you're going to take the Eagles, I think the money
lines a move, not the plus three. And if you're
taking the Ravens, obviously shop round you can find maybe
still find that two and a half. But that's decided
to be on with this Ravens team is you know
what is Lamar twenty one to one straight up against NFC.

(01:01:13):
He's just dominated where it's like, you know, even when
it doesn't make sense and you're like, Okay, the Ravens
aren't as good as they've been in previous years. We
expected to take a step back. They just haven't. I mean,
he when he is going offensively, Lamar is just he's
an MVP level players. So the hesitation here for me
is just this Eagles team, like we just said, they

(01:01:33):
are very young on the defense, This is a type
of quarterback that would give them problems, would give them issues.
They win this, I mean them in Detroit, you might
as well pencil in for the NFC Championship game. I
mean it would be all time smoke blown up their
ass if they can pull this one off. So I
get that perspective. I wanted to be on the Eagles
as well. But it's the Lamar the two and a

(01:01:55):
half where I'm having Paul's just because of that stat
from Van where it's like if you get him under
three is a favorite, stop overthinking it. You just take it.
And even last night I was kicking myself where it's like,
why did I overthink this and take that Chargers team?
You had the Mark two and a half. You just
take it, you don't think about it. He's just he's
a cash cow in this exact spot. But this Eagles

(01:02:16):
team is good enough. We just talked about, like offensively defensively,
they can beat this team. They can keep up with points.
So to me, that's I'm not here for pushes. I'd
rather take the Eagles money line had them win this
game out right in a late field goal.

Speaker 1 (01:02:31):
The Buffalo Bills are seven point favorites over the San
Francisco forty nine ers. You have the wise guys betting
on the Bills here. I just thought the number was moving.
The numbers moved up. I thought it was moving because
we still don't know about brock Purty. We don't know
about Nick Bosa, we don't know about Trent Williams. Like,
why why would we play the Niners in this spot?

(01:02:53):
I don't necessarily feel great playing the Bills until I
know about brock Purty.

Speaker 2 (01:02:57):
Yeah, I think the pros of the Bills. And when
I like about the Bills here is just the fact
that they're one of the best running teams in football
against fogn Iris team that just can't stop the run.
I mean, they clearly have some issues right now defensively,
and the biggest one is the run. Like last year,
you know they could kind of cover it up because
they had such a good D line. They're just not
the same D line this season, and we've kind of
seen that pop up where it's like, you know, last

(01:03:19):
year they would have leads and they could wear teams
out and they were had fresh legs. Defensively, they don't
have that, Like their defense is gonna be out there
a lot, they're gonna be worn down. And this Bills team,
they're just so good. We've seen Josh Allen is a
big favorite at home. He just dominates teams like this
in this exact spot. So, yeah, prime time Sunday night game,
it really is Josh Allen versus the backup quarterback of

(01:03:41):
the forty nine ers. I might have to bully chat
and putting this one the contest at six and a half,
it's like, come on, that's an insane, insane number to
get right now in this Bills team at home in
this spot against a foreign irison, like we just said,
they might be once again without Perty and Bosa in
this matchup against the MVP of football right now and Josh,
So it's a good matchup.

Speaker 1 (01:04:01):
For the I would have no problem with the Bills
at six and a half in the contest without Purty,
like we were comfortable with the Packers. That's what the
number landed at for the Packers. Almost that he got
up there and like the Bills are better than the Packers.
Oh yeah, and this, you know, so I don't know
a problem with that at all. But the Monday night
game Denver is a five and a half point favor

(01:04:23):
over Cleveland. Look, I have an overwhelming urge to fade
Jamis because he played well in back to back games
straight up off a win. He's thirteen seventeen and two
against the spread. Yea one in five against the spread
since twenty twenty one, Thank you, Evan. It is also

(01:04:43):
a great urge to fade bo Nicks and the speaking Broncos.
But I think my urge to fade Jamis is greater
because aren't the Broncos kind of like the Lions in
some respects? Like what we love about the Lions. They
are super physical, they don't make mistakes, they have great coaching.

(01:05:06):
You know what. The Broncos are first in past block
win rate, meaning they're super fast at hedding off the
ball and protecting the passer. Their fifth in run block
win rate, same third in pass rush win rate, meaning
their defensive linemen get off the ball and get an

(01:05:27):
edge faster than the players they are playing against, they
don't make mistakes. Bo Nicks has two interceptions since September fifteenth,
and they have great coaching. So why don't I love
the Broncos here?

Speaker 2 (01:05:44):
I think it's just because the number, right, we like?
I agree with you. When I first saw this, I
felt it felt a little high. I'll be honest, It's like,
why is this not three and a half?

Speaker 4 (01:05:50):
Four?

Speaker 2 (01:05:51):
But I feel like you just broke it down. Why
it's not why it is closer to six? Because of
this Denver defense and because the way Bonux has been playing.
And yeah that I didn't know those James stats. That's
insane how bad he's been after wins. So yeah, I
was I was kind of like you, I really haven't
had a read on this one. I haven't done much
with it. I feel like now I'm gonna be end
up on Denver. Like You're right, this is a nice

(01:06:12):
spot for Denver, not just defensively but offensively. I think
they'll be able to move the ball as well. So yeah,
gim me Denver minus five and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:06:21):
I love Denver here. Love it feels like a great spot,
all right. Boosted money line underdog parlay each week, we
give out a two team moneyline dog parlay. Bet three
six five boosts the odds and highlights it on their
site all weekend under both games. Remember, both games are
eligible for Bet three six fives to early payout promo,

(01:06:43):
where your money line pick gets marked as a win
if that team takes a seventeen point lead, even if
they lose. If you want to bet this, better to
bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay the New
York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm glad you say
if you like the Eagles, take them on the money line,
because I sort of mentioned I wanted to take the Eagles,

(01:07:04):
but I never got a reaction from you, so I
didn't know if you were going to come after me.
Currently boosted from plus three seventy two to plus four
forty act now before the price is change. Find the
boost under both the New York Jets and Philadephia Eagles game
pages our money line underdog Around Robin, we've talked about
a couple of them.

Speaker 3 (01:07:23):
There will come up pay day, Hallado, Yo wanna pay day?

Speaker 1 (01:07:27):
There will come up pay day someday.

Speaker 3 (01:07:30):
Someday, there will come up heayday Halla Loo, Yo, wanna
pay Day?

Speaker 5 (01:07:35):
I will come up Payday.

Speaker 1 (01:07:37):
Someday, Jacksonville. I would say, Philly Simon, Yeah, I would
say the Jets obviously, I would throw in Tennessee.

Speaker 2 (01:07:48):
Yeah, last leg. Are we allowed to put the Giants
in or now?

Speaker 1 (01:07:52):
Yeah? We can do whatever we want.

Speaker 2 (01:07:54):
Oh, I don't know if you want to do strictly
Sunday because you said earlier.

Speaker 1 (01:07:56):
No, I want to do strictly Sunday just for the
boost of LA. But let's do the Giant.

Speaker 2 (01:08:00):
Yeah, because I mean I'm looking at right now live
in the action app. We've seen the four disappear. It's
going down to three and a half of most books.
So wow, seems like the professional money is coming in
on that Giant side. And now as we're talking about
a live so yeah, let's let's let's get a let's
get the dog in there for Thanksgiving fun.

Speaker 1 (01:08:15):
All right, Jacksonville, Tennessee. Jets, Eagles and Giants for the underdog.

Speaker 2 (01:08:23):
Thank Eagles are in there. What a what an ugly
list that is?

Speaker 1 (01:08:25):
Oh my god, it's terrible. Uh, it's only Tuesday. I
know you've been sort of running around for the past
forty eight hours. Any biggest bets yet.

Speaker 2 (01:08:35):
Uh honestly only because of Thanksgiving. I've been a little
Joe public on where I've really put a lot of
my money early on here into this Thanksgiving slate. So
uh yeah, the no doubt the biggest bet for me
so far as green Bay minus three, like that one
I've just as soon as I number went to three,
It's like, when I got this call, that's what I'm
about to go do. It's just go camer that number
at the books where they move it back up. And yeah,

(01:08:57):
obviously it's it's born in Chalky. But if you're if
you're just someone that just likes doing the money line
parlays Green Bay Packers money line with Detroit's money line,
I think it's like minus one ten minus one fifteen
partly together. That's fun. It's like I kind of I
kind of like that if if you're scared off by

(01:09:18):
the big number of Detroit. Obviously I'm not. So if
I'm I've made personally I'm a crazy person. I just
parlayed the minus three with the minus ten. So do
whatever you want, people, But if you if you you
far are scared about that big number, there are ways
around that Detroit Lines minus ten.

Speaker 1 (01:09:32):
Scoot throughlet when all hope is lost, all this left
is relief.

Speaker 2 (01:09:39):
Let's play scoot Roulette.

Speaker 1 (01:09:45):
I'm going with the Denver Broncos.

Speaker 2 (01:09:46):
Wow, there we go.

Speaker 1 (01:09:48):
Okay, how about you, I'll fuck it.

Speaker 2 (01:09:51):
I'll go chalk with no No. I gotta I gotta win, man,
I've been slipping. Give me Green Bay minus three.

Speaker 1 (01:09:59):
Wow, Green Bay. Okay.

Speaker 2 (01:10:00):
I was honestly to go to the Bills, but I
don't want to take the risk of taking that bad
number at seven.

Speaker 1 (01:10:06):
Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director
of Research Evan Abrams for the final word. Evan, don't
make us sad. The last word with Evan Abrams, we're.

Speaker 3 (01:10:19):
Finished talking Happy Thanksgiving boys, and all thirty two teams
in action. So we've got a lot to go through here,
so let me just pound through this. NFL underdogs is
six plus points, are thirty six, twenty three and two
against the spread this season. They are actually nineteen and
forty three on the money line. You'd be up a
sixteen percent return on investment betting those dogs. Those nineteen

(01:10:41):
wins through a twelve weeks is the most in the
NFL since two thousand and four. So big dogs barking,
and we're going to go the opposite here because it
is Thanksgiving. All three home teams right now are the
public side on Thursday and even oh actually no, the
Raiders are on Friday. So all Thursday public sides are

(01:11:01):
five hundred. Ats are better every year since twenty fourteen
and eleven of the past twelve years on Thanksgiving, and
at that seventy four percent threshold, they are nine to
zero straight up and against the spread in the bet
Labs database, So keep an eye on those bet percentages.
Now let's go into a few of these games. So
the Bears are in a very unique spot. It is

(01:11:22):
very rare to have an overtime game on Sunday and
have to play on Thursday, especially the fact that they're
going to have to play at noon. Last twenty years,
teams to play off an overtime game and then play
on three days rest or less six and twenty straight up,
three and twenty three against the spread. Absolutely terrible numbers,
really difficult to overcome. So see if they can cover

(01:11:44):
the ten on Thanksgiving. Love that stat, Evan, love it crazy.
So now let's talk specifics here. So favorites in night
games on Thanksgiving, which would be the Packers on Thanksgiving
this year thirteen and four against the spread since they
started the three game holidays six and Simon alluded to
this earlier thirty two temperature or colder freezing temperatures in

(01:12:06):
franchise history. Dolphins are eleven and twenty eight straight up.
They've lost their last nine games in those cold temperatures.
Ryan Tannehill beat the Steelers in twenty thirteen, is their
last win in freezing tempts. Two more for you as
a favorite of six points or more. The Chiefs this
year six and oh straight up, five and one against

(01:12:27):
the spread in those games. The fact that Kansas City
is undefeated straight up and defeated against the spread as
a six plus point favorite. Only one team has even
played six plus games in that spot. In the first
eleven weeks, it had no covers, the ninety seven Packers.
It has been a long long time, an extremely unique spot.

(01:12:48):
I actually looked this one up and I'm going to
talk Sunday games here because it is the biggest game
of the weekend Baltimore and Philly, and this situation actually
happened last night with Jim Harbaugh. But Nick Siriani has
never faced Lamar Jackson before, and Lamar Jackson's ninety five
career starts he has faced a coach for the first
time forty four times. He is thirty seven and seven

(01:13:10):
straight up against those coaches the first time he faces them.
A very difficult situation with Baltimore. See if it happens
again next week. And then finally, I'll leave you with
a Thanksgiving note And I looked this up earlier. Insane.
So the Lions and Cowboys play every year on Thanksgiving.
They haven't gone two and oh straight up and two
and oh against the spread as a group since nineteen

(01:13:32):
ninety four, so we will see if they can continue
that streak and one of the teams somehow fails as
they always tend to do.

Speaker 1 (01:13:41):
Wow, I think we believe the Lions will win straight
up in against the spread and the Cowboys could lose
and lose against the spread. Evan, great work. We are
thankful for you, your deep base of knowledge, your big,
beautiful brain. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is
resented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet

(01:14:02):
three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars, sign up
using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet
for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.

(01:14:22):
At bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia. We're eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon
and I will be back with our next episode of

(01:14:43):
The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night
to recap our NFL week thirteen picks. We do have
a Power Hour Thanksgiving special tomorrow three pm Eastern on
the Action Network YouTube page. Don't forget sign up for
the Favorites contest. Favorite It's a Actionnetwork dot com still
giving away weekly prizes. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods

(01:15:05):
wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

Speaker 5 (01:15:13):
Love You.

Speaker 1 (01:15:21):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler

All Episodes

The Favorites - NFL Week 13 Best Bets

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Colin Cowherd

Jason McIntyre

Popular Podcasts

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

The Breakfast Club

The Joe Rogan Experience

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}The Favorites - NFL Week 13 Best Bets