The Favorites - NFL Week 14 Betting Preview

Fresh off a winning weekend in the contest, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter gear up for NFL Week 14. Together they discuss every other game on the board, including an ugly matchup the New York Giants, Josh Allen in Los Angeles and another chance to bet Carolina at a big number. 

To RSVP for the FREE Favorites Podcast LIVE event in downtown Philadelphia on December 12th, follow this link now!

Plus, we get a recap of Week 13 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Norman of the Action Network. Today is
our week fourteen episode. We're gonna break down the entire
slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exact decision our
Sun says, will narrow down the options for our faves

(00:32):
to put into the Favorite Podcast one hundred thousand dollars
Pro Football Pick Them Contest three and two.

Speaker 2 (00:40):
This week, folks, we bet on.

Speaker 1 (00:42):
The Broncos last night at minus five and a half
specifically because we expected Jameis Winston to give it away. Alas,
that is exactly what happened, only not exactly as we
saw it plan out. We will unpack that quickly live
from our Tommy John Hume Studios. I'm joined as always
buying my co host, my companion Mike and Padre my

(01:05):
bff Professional Better mL So I am in.

Speaker 3 (01:08):
Yeah, I don't think there's a quarterback better to us
in the league Chad than Jamis Winston. Like every time
we need him to show up for us, he shows
up in the biggest way. And I don't know if
you remember this, but was it four years ago. We
came in twenty fourth place. We basically need to go
five and zero in this contest whatever it was. Five
thousand people were in it, met Chad needed a five
and oh week, and our last game came down to
Winston versus Matt Ryan. We had the Landoms three and

(01:31):
a half, they're up three. Winston's driving and he threw
up pick six to go thirty for thirty in that
season with Tampa and got us to twenty fourth place,
which was like big money for us at that time.
So yeah, yeah, Jamis has always been good to us
with this pick sixes.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
So look, we've talked about that. We're going to dig
into that in a second. I do want to say
I have very big news, very big news.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Are you ready. Yeah, I've mentioned this before.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
It's no joke when I say that my beautiful bride
really has no idea what I do in my third
floor office. Honest to god, she's vaguely familiar that we
do a podcast, but she is supportive in the exact
right way. And Simon, it's a way that I want
someone to support you one day, my much much younger brother.

(02:20):
It's the way that I know Matt Mitchell, and his
brilliant and beautiful wife supports him as well. If I
say to my wife, let's leave our happy life in
New Jersey with close friends, two young kids, not too
far from her parents who are taking care of the
young kids all the time, so I can go be

(02:41):
edter in chief of a freaking magazine in the middle
of Connecticut, She's like, all right, that sounds good.

Speaker 2 (02:46):
Did she read the magazine? Never?

Speaker 1 (02:48):
Did I care, not at all when I said let's
leave ESPN and let's go start this kaka Maimi sports
betting media business that has a ninety five percent chance
of failure. Oh, by the way, I have to be
in New York City two nights a week. She was like, cool,
but does she.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
Listen to our stuff? Not at all. It's all you need, simon.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
You just need someone who says yes to the big
stuff and you don't sweat the small stuff. This past weekend,
I don't know what got into her, but she came
to me after walking the dog. She says, Hey, I
listened to your podcast. I'm like, oh, what'd you think?
And her response with classic she goes, I can see
why people like it. You guys are fun together. I

(03:35):
don't think we're going to get higher praise than that
from Stacy, who you've met. If nothing else, she knows
that we have a show that's big.

Speaker 4 (03:44):
Yeah, I'm just shocked she actually listened to it.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
I'm shocked too, and I'm happy to take it.

Speaker 1 (03:51):
Then, by the way, she went back through previous episodes
to see if we ever talked about her. She was
disappointed to know that we hadn't. And the off chance
I'm not going to tell her on the off chance
she ever listens to the podcast again, maybe soon she
can listen to this episode know that she's been acknowledged.
There you go, as a reminder of the Favorites podcast

(04:13):
is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new
BED three six five. Customers get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign
up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars place to
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the

(04:34):
moment it's never ordinary at bet three sixty five. Must
be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older.
In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditions restrictions
apply all right quickly on the Jackson Broncos, because those

(04:57):
are two games we won this past weekend in which we,
on the surface got pretty lucky with back door covers, right,
the kind of games that we have not won much
this year, and it's worth noting how they were both
random and completely predictable. We thought the Jags, with Trevor
Lawrence as home dogs, brought in the division getting the

(05:18):
huk we're a good spot. Instead, it was Mac Jones
with back to back career drives, getting the back door,
losing by three. We had it at three and a half,
just like we planned it. We thought the Browns and
Jamis were due to pull a Jamis like game after
their win against the Steelers in snowy Cleveland on Thursday night.

(05:44):
Jamis goes off from nearly five hundred yards four Tuddies
has the game of his life. Also two pick six's
and a pick in the Broncos end zone as the
game is ending to help us preserve of the cover
that is betting at its finest right there.

Speaker 3 (06:05):
Yeah, it was all timer and it was It was
funny too where they kicked a field goal on Denver
and I was a little lady friend. She goes, so,
what does this mean, like mathematically, like you've lost now
because I told her we can't have a field goal,
And I said, normally I would say yes, but this
guy Jamis just loves to turn it over. And she's like,
I don't know. She like, I feel like he won't

(06:25):
turn it over again.

Speaker 4 (06:26):
I go, I will see.

Speaker 3 (06:27):
It was what I think one play he threw that pick,
it was he's the best. They score all of a sudden,
they're back down on the one. I explained to her
that we had five and a half.

Speaker 4 (06:36):
I was like, again, if.

Speaker 3 (06:37):
They score here, it's they're on the first. They're on
the four yard line right now, they're probably gonna score
because it's a meaningless touchdown. I mean, you were once
again gonna lose. And James like you just said he
threw that pick on the four yard line. It's just like, God,
bless this man. I it sucks that no team will
let him be their quarterback because he is what top
five most exciting quarterback I think in my lifetime watching

(06:57):
he's just so much fun.

Speaker 2 (07:00):
Guy just throws darts with no fear.

Speaker 4 (07:03):
It's just it's apparently can't see yeah.

Speaker 1 (07:06):
Oh wait, hold on, hold on this just in William
Vance of the Denver Broncos. I think he just gave
up another touchdown as we're talking.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
My guess. My feeling is that if the games are going.

Speaker 1 (07:20):
To play out exactly as we predict, it would be
nice if they could just space out the action so
it all happens in a seamless orderly way instead of
packing everything into the final two minutes. I don't know
if you feel that way, but I would like that
because then I can just go to bed happy and
knowing how it's going to end.

Speaker 5 (07:38):
No.

Speaker 3 (07:39):
I love It's the greatest sport on Earth, Chad, You'll
believe it. Eventually, it's the greatest sport on Earth.

Speaker 2 (07:43):
So despicable, so hard to watch.

Speaker 1 (07:45):
I did go to bed last night with ten minutes
left in the third because it was ten thirty at night,
the game was clearly going to go till midnight, and you.

Speaker 4 (07:53):
Were just raging.

Speaker 3 (07:54):
We were.

Speaker 4 (07:55):
It was just unreal. Whinston was down for like four
hundred yards.

Speaker 2 (07:57):
I get it.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
It's like it was just too much because then you
turn it off and you can't fall asleep for ninety
more minutes.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
So I gotta get up and I gotta do exercise.

Speaker 4 (08:08):
I know I'm better than this. I know.

Speaker 3 (08:11):
I'm just praying for the Lord to deliver me from
pick sixes.

Speaker 2 (08:15):
Time to get to Week fourteen, green Bay Detroit. The
line has moved from four to three and a half.

Speaker 1 (08:19):
Early money coming in on the Packers based on the
season long stats. This is a fantastic matchup. A power
running game for the Packers against the Lions defense that
has actually been pretty good against the rush. Lions have
an elite running game against a Packers ded that is
at least better against the rush than the past few

(08:39):
opponents the Lions have had. Since September fifteenth, the Lions
had fifteen players go on IR, either for the full
season or an extended period of time. I think thirteen
of those player twelve of those players on the defensive
side of the ball, including half their original starting lineup

(09:02):
and the replacements for these starters. Like, this is not
the coaching mismatch the Lions have seen in the past
few games either, So I like, it's such a hard
game to handicap. It really is, because I feel like
we don't know who's playing for the Lions.

Speaker 3 (09:20):
Yeah, I would say a couple weeks ago would be,
but this this one feels really easy. Where you just
talked about it, it's like they don't have the defense
to get stops.

Speaker 4 (09:27):
I mean we saw it.

Speaker 3 (09:27):
Even in that second half, the Bears look like a
totally different team, was because the Lions just simply couldn't
stop them, right, I mean, Caleb really figured out how
to push the ball down the field, and you saw that.
You know, all the injuries to their linebackers, it's going
to catch up to them. And saying with all the
guys in their D line, it's like that's stuff you
can you can hide it for a little bit, but eventually,

(09:48):
like we're getting late here, and your guys, I mean,
you know you're in the best division of football right now.
This line schedule is tough because they're playing all these
really tough divisional games here, So two three weeks ago
you would automatically been the Lions here. We do not
trust Jordan Love at all. Even if you played well
those last couple of weeks. There's still little things he
does where it's just it's not the Jordan Love from

(10:08):
last year, right, there's just something off about Jordan Love
this year. But at this number against a banged up
Lions team, how do we not stay in this?

Speaker 4 (10:17):
Like the the back door.

Speaker 3 (10:18):
Is always to me, always gonna be open, and the
Lions are now giving this spot where it feels like
the Bengals are in right that they're gonna need to
put up thirty points against these really good offenses if
they're going to win these games.

Speaker 4 (10:29):
So, yeah, three and a.

Speaker 3 (10:31):
Half it does feel a little too easy. That's the
scary part. It's like, why is this not at three?
But we'll take We'll take the value. I'll take the
three and a half right now while it's still available.

Speaker 4 (10:40):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (10:40):
The only thing that's giving me any pause at all
is that the Lions have been playing without defensive linemen
and linebackers all season and finding ways to have a
really effective defense in the spots where they need to
be most effective, and they've now got a week to
figure this out. I mean, part of the and why

(11:00):
they looked so bad against the Bears is because it
was happening in real time and it's hard to just
sort of make those adjustments in real time when you're
losing a defensive player every other series, if not every series.
So I do think that that they are so good
at coaching and so disciplined that and they are so
good at finding talent even though they're picking Jamal Adams

(11:23):
up off the street. That's how bad it is. It
gives me a little bit of pause because I have
so much belief in Dan Campbell and there and how
they coach. That's the only reason.

Speaker 3 (11:35):
Yeah, I would say that's fair to be. But we
saw when they played earlier this year. If we talked
about if you took away that pick six, the lines
win seventeen fourteen, and it's like a really close game.
That's Jordan Love coming off. We're still playing with a
bad injury in that game.

Speaker 2 (11:50):
That's true.

Speaker 3 (11:50):
It's just even last year we talked about they played
in the Thanksgiving game and it was like, Wow, this
Green Bay team actually matches up really well offensively against
that Detroit defense, and that was when they was healthy
last year and this year they're not. So I get
where you're coming from. Like there is we just were
scared Alliance because we've been paying them so hard and
we really like them. But I just think it's all
about this number here in this divisional matchup.

Speaker 4 (12:11):
Take the three and a half.

Speaker 2 (12:13):
I think I'm with you.

Speaker 1 (12:15):
Let's recap the Week thirteen Favorites podcast one hundred thousand
dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest. Congratulations to Week thirteen
first place winner Jason Leak. Jason went five to zero
and for his Monday Night Football as in Yours tiebreaker,
he wrote down the maximum of nine hundred yards. Who

(12:38):
knew James was gonna throw for four ninety seven? That
was good enough to win. He takes home the maximum
one thousand dollars a weekly prize well done. As always,
Producer Matt Mitchell has selected the Producer's Cup Award to
the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.

Speaker 2 (12:55):
Have you about the loads losers?

Speaker 4 (13:00):
A Louis about he still kids.

Speaker 5 (13:02):
On tri.

Speaker 1 (13:06):
This week's Producer Cup goes to Daniel Gaid Aniella who
went h to five and missed the tiebreaker by almost
six hundred Europe.

Speaker 2 (13:15):
Pretty good, Daniel.

Speaker 1 (13:17):
Please email our producer at podcast at actionnetwork dot com
to claim your prize. I have simon three games that
I've pinpointed as potential exec decisions. This is one of them.
I'm not sure I'm going to land there. New York,
New York Jets at Miami minus six and a half.

(13:38):
This was at Miami minus seven for a hot minute
on Sunday, right before we went on the air. Someone
hit the Jets and it got to six and a
half at bet three sixty five, which is where it's at.
It is now at six at a lot of places.
Am I going crazy? Like why is there money coming

(14:00):
in on the Jets? We both agree that Miami is
the right side here, and now we're getting him at
a better number.

Speaker 3 (14:08):
This is your first time, Chad, you know what's happenings.
This has been what is a nine straight week seven
We've had the Jets be bet on and become the favorite.

Speaker 2 (14:17):
That's what I don't get though.

Speaker 1 (14:18):
The Jets have been getting every getting money every single
week since they fired Robert Sala and it's not comprehensible
to me, Like is no one paying attention? Like since
firing Sala, the Jets are thirty first in points allowed
for possession, last in EPA, yeah for play, Like it's
a terrible team now.

Speaker 3 (14:39):
If you go through all the numbers, it's like the
downgrade from the lat from hidden being a head coach
of this guy who's coaching now, it's like they became
such a worse team. Like it's clear solid wasn't the problem.

Speaker 4 (14:51):
But we've talked.

Speaker 3 (14:53):
About like these even the pros I know, I highly
respect Chad.

Speaker 4 (14:57):
They're hitting the slot like they like the Jets.

Speaker 3 (14:59):
They like them every week and they've just been getting
burned and it's like, I don't know if they can't
help themselves at this point, right. I think it's like
we joke about the time they've keep hitting black and
they're wait for that red to come or whatever it is,
and it's just it's not hitting for him, right, They're
just they've been off and I'll be patient. I mean,
give me Miami five and a half. I'm happy to

(15:21):
take that. And we talked about this a whole the
time Tua at home. This offense it's different, and they
beat up on bad teams. That's what they're good at.
So I'm happy to be patient wait for this one
to keep coming down. Like I already told you, I
like Miami here. I will not be sucked in on
the Jets again. Like last week, like we talked about,
they were up twenty one, like they had twenty one points.

(15:41):
It was whatever, it was, twenty one to six, twenty
one seven. It was lined up prof for the Jets,
and they totally melted it down like they're just They're
one of the more mentally weak teams in all football,
There's no.

Speaker 4 (15:51):
Doubt about it.

Speaker 3 (15:52):
So they're supposed to get up now traveling down to
Miami in the spot, I'm just not buying it. So yeah,
I'll be patient here. I'll let this like you, Like
you said you're gonna make exex decision. I was gonna
make this, Simon says, But I agree with you. We've
seen this come down from seven to six of most books.
Why can we not cross that key number five and
a half and let me get it? So I'll be patient.

Speaker 1 (16:11):
Wait, I just made a note that this is a
potential foxhol as you were talking, I'm like, if we
think it's getting a five and a half. Then let's
foxhold it because we will definitely be on the opposite
side of all of the professional betters. Your point about
to beating up bad teams as favorites at home seven

(16:33):
and one against teams with a winning percentage of two
fifty or less, which is the Jets. And by the way,
don't if anybody is thinking, well, this is in the division,
it's a different game. All of those wins have come
in the division. He's seven and one in the division
as a favorite in this spot against bad teams. So

(16:53):
we're going to be on this.

Speaker 4 (16:54):
Sorry, though, the love for the Jets, I'm with you.
It is one of the more bizarre things because it's.

Speaker 1 (16:57):
Like, it's kind of it's truly insanity.

Speaker 4 (17:01):
It is.

Speaker 1 (17:02):
It's just doing it again and again and again. It's defined,
it's defined, it's in the freaking dictionary. We'll be on Miami.
I'm putting them on the list. It's just a question
of what the number is going to be, and if
it's below seven, fan frea fantastic Carolina at Philadelphia.

Speaker 2 (17:18):
So the numbers twelve and a half.

Speaker 1 (17:20):
Our first thing to think when this was at thirteen
on Sunday, night was take the Panthers. The wise guys
have done that. It's pretty much stayed at twelve and
a half. Like if we were looking to bet them,
the best thing that could have happened was them losing
in ot and the Eagles beating Baltimore on the road.

Speaker 2 (17:40):
That's exactly what happened.

Speaker 1 (17:43):
Like it is a statement win versus from a public POV,
a statement win versus another loss by another team. Everyone
thinks it's terrible, but I were going in on the Panthers.

Speaker 3 (17:57):
I can tell you though, right now, I feel like
it's another line that mean you comes to day when
we're throwing out all of our shit, this is one
they were to pop up and be like, just get
it in there because we're both gonna like it.

Speaker 4 (18:05):
Why wouldn't we like it?

Speaker 3 (18:06):
It's it's way too big of a number for the
way this Panthers team in playing. And maybe I am
being sucked in on it because I watched all twenty
two and Bryce Young some of his throws.

Speaker 4 (18:16):
Chat You're just like.

Speaker 3 (18:17):
Okay, you see why this kid was what he was
in college, right because I never really understood it, but
you know, if he can throw on the run like
he was in that game last week. He can have
a career in this league. Like he's really good at
something that not a lot of guys are. I mean
even Bo Nicks. We'll give him his flowers from last night.

(18:38):
Like some of these young guys, the way they can throw,
you know, with weird body angles on the move, that's
just not something we saw like in the two thousands,
Like this is very new age playing style. These guys
are just such gifted athletes. So Brys Young, keep this
game close. Like you said, we're playing a little bit
of fire here because he's he's been so good to us,
and the egos are I mean, we have no doubt

(18:59):
a bat it the best defenses on football and one
of the best offenses. So if we could, if we
could cheat, I would love to just take either a
first quarter Carolina or just take them first half. Right,
we've seen the Eagles are just a team that comes
out slow, but we can't do that here, and it's.

Speaker 4 (19:13):
All about playing the numbers.

Speaker 3 (19:14):
So at twelve, I'm not crazy about it, but I'm
hoping Chad that the parlays the teasers tie in the
Eagles heavy and maybe we can get back to that
thirteen and a half in the contest, because that to
me would be an amazing number to have with this
Panthers team. I just think offensively, they're gonna be able
to hang in this game. But my fear is can
they get stops defensively because the Eagles team they're gonna
be able to have their way with this defense on Carolina.

Speaker 1 (19:37):
Yeah, this is a get right game for Jalen Hurts, right,
Like this is just when he's if there's anything that
could potentially keep the Eagles from getting to the super Bowl.
Hjalen Hurts inability to be an premiere, elite playmaker with
his arm.

Speaker 2 (19:58):
Like that's that's it, right. You can see it in
every game.

Speaker 1 (20:00):
He has these streaks where he's kind of rushed in
the pocket, he is inaccurate, he can't find the right
receivers like that happens, and it's sort of a black
hole in every single game.

Speaker 2 (20:13):
That to me is the biggest question for this Eagles team.

Speaker 1 (20:17):
But I do love their interior, and you know, we
have a bias for physically dominant teams and Bryce Young,
you know we reference this on the show on Sunday Night.
He is like slowly morphing from manager to playmaker, and
you're spot on about some.

Speaker 2 (20:39):
Of those throws.

Speaker 1 (20:39):
On Sunday night, he had like guys in his face,
off his back foot and just flinging darts. I know
exactly the play you're talking about. It was like a
third and long. He's off balance, falling back and nails
to the only spot in the field he can complete
the pass. And it wasn't by accident, like you watch
the play and he freaking nailed it.

Speaker 2 (21:02):
So you know, here's the problem.

Speaker 1 (21:06):
Some reality, This Eagles defense has been so dominant the
past eight weeks overall, first in passing yards per play, sixth,
in EPA per past seventh, in sack percentage seventh, and
time to pressure. And by the way, they do all
this without blitzing. It's the pressure from the interior alignment. Meanwhile,

(21:31):
the Panthers defense thirtieth an EPA per play, sixth, then
yards per rush allowed, third, most rushes of ten plus
yards allowed. So it's possible Saquon runs for five hundred
yards and crosses two thousand yards for the season and
wins the MVP in this game.

Speaker 2 (21:49):
That's the scare. Yeah, but it's on the list. Keep
it on the list.

Speaker 1 (21:56):
Here's another one that is on my list of executive decisions.
And the third one on my list is so ugly.
I don't even know why I've come to this conclusion,
but this one is Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Cleveland's at six
and a half. Look, we made the mistake last week.
I won't do it again. You fee Tomlin in this spot.

Speaker 4 (22:15):
My kids want to have a good Christmas.

Speaker 1 (22:17):
Division faves of sixty eight points forty eight percent against
the spread. Tomlin is a fave of sixty eight in
the division just eleven and fourteen. The only question is
did we think this could get to seven? We didn't
do the right thing last week. We're going to do
it this week.

Speaker 4 (22:32):
Please don't talk to me about more victories. Are that
be disrespectful to those guys in the room. Yeah, I
honestly don't think it's so.

Speaker 3 (22:38):
I think this only comes down just because this is
what you just talked about. This is like a professional
spot like.

Speaker 4 (22:43):
We just saw.

Speaker 3 (22:45):
You know, Jamis have an absolute meltdown on Monday night,
burned anyone that bet on them, So even if they
pull the cat bet them last night, they're totally off
of him altogether. Right, this is going to be all
the money is going to be on Pittsburgh in this spot,
and the only people are betting the Cleveland's going to
be professionals. And to me, it's really a fade on.

(23:05):
I feel like Russell Wilson, like, are we really gonna
get burned by him? Two weeks in a row of
him throwing for over three undred yards? Because I do
think this is another matchups. I know it doesn't look
on paper like I'll turn to a shootout, but does
feel like a game that's gonna be in the like
the high twenties, which you know for these this matchup
is kind of like a lot of points. The totals
forty three, you know. I just think James gives this

(23:26):
team a whole new identity offensively like this. Even last
night I felt that with that number was like, you know,
that number felt a little little what like high, right,
like even we bet it it moved to six and
a half. At five and a half, I felt like
it was right six and a half, it was like, okay,
the values there shifted to Cleveland at that point. Same
thing feels here right like there should be four and
a half five. You just I mean you're you're saying

(23:49):
that Bethew six five. It's six and a half, but
most books is down to six. So yeah, to me,
I'd grab this six and a half now. I can
only see this coming down just because it's it's just
too I have a number for this type of divisional
matchup in this Like you said, Tomlin, in these games
for some reason, either lose he's outright, or just play
it really close and one by three at the end,
doesn't matter when it was Men Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph, Like,

(24:10):
these are just ugly games for Pittsburgh and home divisional games.

Speaker 4 (24:13):
So I'm with you, Chad. I like the six and
a half. You know I'll make that.

Speaker 1 (24:17):
Simon says, I was just gonna say this feels like
you want to say. Simon says, I had.

Speaker 3 (24:21):
Another game I really like, but fuck man, like it's
if it's six and a half at bet through six
y five, I'd grab that now because a lot of
the books here in Jersey are down to six.

Speaker 5 (24:30):
When Simon says do it, we do what Siona.

Speaker 1 (24:34):
I will good, then it forces me to make a
different decision about exec decision and what I have for
the exec decision. I think it will blow your mind.
And I like, after I did my research yesterday, I'm like,
do I really feel this strongly about this game?

Speaker 4 (24:49):
Oh? Good?

Speaker 2 (24:50):
I know, I know it's good, Simon.

Speaker 1 (24:53):
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Speaker 4 (25:37):
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(26:00):
very limited time at Tommy John Tommy john dot com
slash favorites Las Vegas Raiders at Tempt Bay Buccaneers got
away with one this past weekend. Had the Panthers against
the Bucks at home. If the Raiders don't botch a
snap and they kick a game winning field goal against

(26:21):
Kansas City and the Panthers don't fumble the ball in
Bucks territory, or if they make multiple field goals during regulation,
or if they score one more touchdown in the red
zone and the Bucks lose that game, is this number seven?

Speaker 4 (26:41):
I don't know, but I hate that I have to
bet the Bucks here. It sucks.

Speaker 3 (26:45):
I wanted to be on the Raiders. But wow, such
a Buck spot where it's like people are overreacting to
what just happened last week. We just talked about it
like Bryce Young played out of his mind. Really, if
you go back and watch you it was incredible. Ain't
O'Connell is not that guy like that Chiefs game? To me,
We've seen it every year with them. It's like the

(27:06):
flukiest game with the Raiders against that Chiefs team. Like
even when Derek Carr was there, they'd play these tight
games where they'd upset this Chiefs team, and then when
they play against a team like the Bucks, who's like
a good playoff contending team, they would just get rolled
like this is a bad Raiders team. I'm not letting
last week throw me off. I know obviously Max Crosby
is a difference maker with that defense, but that was

(27:28):
like the perfect, perfect lineup game for that Chiefs team.
On the flip side, the Bucks had the game from hell,
but you saw that that they changed, Like we talked,
the Bucky Irving thing to me is such.

Speaker 4 (27:38):
A game changer for this Bucks team, Like he is so.

Speaker 3 (27:41):
Good and you know Baker had an awful game, they
still able to pull that win out.

Speaker 4 (27:47):
Baker doesn't have back to back terrible games. He just
has not been that player this season, Like.

Speaker 3 (27:51):
Usually he's weak the week, and I expect him to
bounce back against a terrible Raiders defense here, So another
no line, I'll be patient on.

Speaker 4 (27:58):
Give me six and a half.

Speaker 3 (27:59):
Let the pub keep hammering this number on this Raiders team,
because I knew right away when I saw this number,
I was like, oh my god, the public is going
to hammer that Raiders line like they are all in
after what just happened last week, But I thought me
and you talked about it said more about that Chiefs
team than I thought it said about that Raiders team.
So yeah, I'm gonna be patient her way for a
better number that Bucks line. But it's six six and

(28:20):
a half. I'll take that if you can get an
out on the books.

Speaker 2 (28:24):
I'm surprised to hear you say that.

Speaker 1 (28:26):
I guess you could look at the Raiders game and think, Okay,
there's two different things here. They had some mishaps in
the red zone. They really should have scored more points early.
It's similar to what we just talked about with the
Jags and with the Broncos, right, sort of everything you
expected to happen happened in that game, only instead of

(28:48):
it happening through the course of the game and competency,
it happened in miraculous moments through two different plays, one
to brock Boers, one to I forgot who the other
receiver was on long throws from Aidan O'Connell was yeah, Tucker.
That got them in the end zone and sort of

(29:09):
made the game closer and sort of erased a thirteen
point deficit. Maybe you're right, I mean, I don't have
a strong opinion about this game.

Speaker 2 (29:20):
I can't.

Speaker 3 (29:21):
I mean, if it's again we avoid, I wouldn't be
mad either, because we hate taking huge favorites. But it,
you know, it just feels like a kind of spot
where it's like this is the Bucks are gonna be
undervalued in the spot.

Speaker 1 (29:30):
To me, I love the Baker Mayfield narrative that's happening.

Speaker 2 (29:36):
I love the way he plays.

Speaker 1 (29:38):
I love that he's waving off trainers when he's getting
his ankle stepped on, and that he's balling out in
every game, and that this Bucks team loves him so much.
And I love that now that there was all these
flag planting brawls yea in college football this past weekend,

(30:00):
everybody is asking Baker for his opinion, and yeah, he's
not even blanching. He's like, teams need to learn how
to take an l You want to plan a fucking flag,
plan a flag and fucking deal with it, losers.

Speaker 4 (30:15):
I just.

Speaker 2 (30:17):
I love Baker.

Speaker 3 (30:19):
I love him too, But it is funny. Like I
was with my cousin and she doesn't not watch much football.
I had explained to her that he was taken before
Josh Allen, who's just like a god among men. I
was like, you don't get it. He went to like
a normal school. Josh Allen went to Wyoming like no one,
No one goes to Wyoming becomes the best quarterback on football.

Speaker 4 (30:35):
But I'm with you. I love Baker.

Speaker 3 (30:37):
But the outside world you're just like, who is this
little guy that's got this little attitude. I'm just like,
if you love this sport, he is one of the
best quarterbacks and he's just hilarious.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
Oh my god, it's great.

Speaker 1 (30:47):
You know it's not great. Jacksonville in Tennessee. Tennessee is
a three and a half point favorite. I don't really
have anything here.

Speaker 4 (30:55):
Yeah, I'm happy to avoid it.

Speaker 1 (30:57):
Yeah, I feel like Phil, yeah we should, we should
play the Jags, but I feel.

Speaker 3 (31:01):
Like, definitely play the Jacks if you have to, like
in your pick contest, you had to make a pick here.
I mean, Tennessee they've just burned people all year being favorites.
I mean I remember even earlier the year they had
a bunch of different matchups. That one that really jumps
out WI always be. I still can't believe we took
Tennessee against Malik Willison Green Bay, Like.

Speaker 4 (31:20):
That was one of my worst bets of the year.

Speaker 3 (31:22):
Thinking Tennessee was a smart move because they're going into
backup in Green Bay. They're just they're just terrible. So yeah,
you figure they'd bounced back here. That's what the books
are saying. But yeah, if I have to make a
pick on this line, I'll take the plus three and
a half.

Speaker 1 (31:38):
Are you ready? I'm very curious your take on this game.
New Orleans Saints are five point favorites at the New
York Giants. This line movement got crazy wacky. Opened it
for Sunday Night, immediately bet down to three and a half,
and then right around when the Rams Saints game ended,

(32:00):
it got that up to four four and a half,
then five down to four and a half again in
some places like this is kind of fun to me.
The Giants will clearly need to run the ball to
win this game. The Saints gave up the second most

(32:21):
yards per play on the ground Tyrone Chase Tyrone Tracy.
Giants running back other than you know the cover killing
fumbles has been averaging five yards per carry. Only one
team gives up more yards per play on the ground

(32:43):
than the New Orleans Saints.

Speaker 2 (32:45):
Are you ready for it? The New York Football.

Speaker 1 (32:49):
Giants across every metric. The Giants are the worst rushing
defense in the NFL, and the Saints have been excellent
the ball. However, when I dug a little deeper, most
of that success is really about Taysom Hill, and when

(33:10):
he's been out, this team has really struggled offensively more.

Speaker 2 (33:14):
It's really as much about him.

Speaker 1 (33:15):
As it is Derek Carr. I don't know why, but
this is my executive decision. Take the Giant.

Speaker 4 (33:28):
What is New York Giants?

Speaker 2 (33:30):
Yeah?

Speaker 6 (33:31):
Oh my god, my god, no, no.

Speaker 4 (33:41):
No, you know, Dexter Lawrence is out for the year, right,
he's on the I R.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
What if I tell you I forgot before I said
that I knew it and I forgot.

Speaker 4 (33:54):
Yeah, I feel like it's a big it's a big deal.

Speaker 2 (33:56):
I think that's a mistake on my part.

Speaker 4 (33:58):
Yeah, don't, don't, don't take this one.

Speaker 2 (34:00):
You got better.

Speaker 4 (34:01):
Thank God.

Speaker 1 (34:02):
Yesterday I had convinced myself that I was taking the
Giants like I'm like, I'm a genius.

Speaker 4 (34:10):
I do love with the angle of it. It was
my same view last week.

Speaker 3 (34:13):
Like again, if they didn't have that pick six, they
probably cover or win that game against Dallas, Like they
weren't awful in that game, but that was really about
it being a divisional game Thursday. You're just thrown it
all against and it still don't work out for him here.
But to me, the decks are laune injury is just
too much to overcap.

Speaker 1 (34:29):
Like, I'm totally totally yeah, thank you. Wow, that could
have been bad. Well now I just want to go
back and take Cleveland, but I'll have to move on.

Speaker 2 (34:40):
But you like my theory otherwise I do.

Speaker 3 (34:43):
I think it's actually like a smart play like that
that Saint's team. Both these teams are going to be
quit on the season. I mean, let's be honest, like,
I don't know who's quit more. But yeah, at this point,
I would just take the Giants because who the hell
are the Saints to be catching five against anybody there?

Speaker 4 (35:00):
They're a terrible team.

Speaker 2 (35:02):
Well that's my theory.

Speaker 1 (35:03):
Either way, I'm putting them on the list just in
case you're sick. Atlanta Minnesota, Minnesota minus five. A month ago,
the Falcons were six and three. Kirk Cousins had thrown

(35:24):
for twenty three hundred yards, seventeen touchdowns, seven picks, don't
forget eight hundred of those yards and eight of those
touchdowns came in two games against the Bucks. Since then,
Falcons on went three losses to New Orleans, Denver and
the Chargers. Kirk has thrown six picks sacks seven times,

(35:45):
does not have another touchdown pass.

Speaker 3 (35:50):
Yes, we joked about I told you I felt like
everyone in Joe Public in the world was going to
be on at land here now. I was just going
to have to take the Vikings because it's like the
revenge whatever their mentality was for backing them and believing
once again in this Falcons team. I'm just totally off Kirk.
I've been off Kirk, like I just weeks ago. I
noticed he just does not look right, and everyone's coming

(36:10):
around because that was so egregious that loss, right, I mean,
if they just put Pennis in the second half, they
win that game, right, kicking field goals like that. The
Chargers had nothing going offensively, they were totally out of it,
you know, four picks, It's just it's inexcusable. So it's like, Okay,
I guess they're bouncing. They're betting him to bounce back.

(36:32):
But you kind of just talked about it, like other
than those two really big games. He's not been good
this season, Like he's been below average, which is not
what he should be on that offense. Like then one
of the better blocking offensive lines. They have great running backs,
you know, Drake lennoncop Pits. I mean, they're to me
good receivers, you know. I maybe it's the number that's

(36:54):
throwing me off here because it is high. But it's
like this Vikings defense that likes the blitz and move
guys off their spots. That's Kirk's biggest weakness right now.
If you move him at any discomfort in the pocket,
he folds right now, or he throws agregious picks like
he just throws into the terrible coverage.

Speaker 4 (37:10):
And that's what the Vikings thrive on.

Speaker 3 (37:13):
And now they're going to against guy they know better
than anyone else, right someone this team has seen him
practice for all those years. So it's like, man, it's
if this becomes like you know, if this becomes a
game that stays below six, I mean you were trying
to figure out favorites here, Obviously I'd like this more
than the Bucks. Like, I just really like the Vikings

(37:34):
in the spot. It's all about what kind of number
I'm gonna get here. So it's another number I bet,
and it's actually gone up at certain books.

Speaker 4 (37:41):
It was four and a half, it's back up to five.

Speaker 2 (37:43):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (37:44):
As long as it stays blow six, I think it's
a good number of the Viking team. It's just it's
all baud right now.

Speaker 4 (37:48):
For Kirk.

Speaker 3 (37:49):
I just if it was, you know, a different matchup,
maybe I'd give him some of the benefit of the
doubt here, But the fact that it's going against his
Vikings defense that's just been so good this year, I
just I can't get around to taking his side.

Speaker 1 (38:00):
So, uh, you mentioned some really good points. He's facing
a defense Kirk is that is fourth, and sacks third,
and QB pressure second and blitz right, all the stats
that back up what you were just saying about his
lack of comfort, And a lot of people would say, well,
you know, Bijon is having a great year, and he is.

(38:20):
He is much better this year than he was last year.
The Vikings top rank defense for rushing efficiency, top rank
for defending rushes inside the tackles, number two defending rushes
outside the tackles. In my notes, you just said you're
thinking about this number, and like, why isn't it higher?

(38:41):
That is exactly what I wrote in my notes. I'm like, what,
this number feels too low.

Speaker 3 (38:46):
It was like it's you know, I'm overthinking it, but
it's like, what, this is a weird number.

Speaker 1 (38:52):
Clearly I was misreading my notes and I meant this
was my exact decision, not blow it. I was confused
by the order in the schedule and the spread, but
I really met Minnesota minus five, not New York Giants
plus five. This is my exec decision, the choice between
the unthinkable and the impossible?

Speaker 4 (39:13):
Are you haavy an executive decision? This feels like the
same thing with the Bills.

Speaker 3 (39:20):
Like last week, we both loved the Bills and it
was really all about the spot and how this was
a bad matchup for the other side.

Speaker 4 (39:25):
It feels the same thing for here. This is just
all really bad matchups for this Atlanta team.

Speaker 3 (39:30):
So hopefully we have the same results as that Bills game,
where it's just like you clearly saw one team was
great against the one team was great against, defending the
run and running the ball down team's throats. This week,
this matchup we just talked about. It's ken Kirk survived
that blitz.

Speaker 4 (39:44):
He is not.

Speaker 3 (39:44):
He struggled all year against it. We think the Vikings
defense will dominate this matchup.

Speaker 2 (39:48):
I'm excited.

Speaker 1 (39:49):
This is my executive decision because much more than the Giants,
much more than the Giants, because nobody's yelling at me
in the chat. Yeah, while I'm making the player.

Speaker 4 (39:58):
I love it.

Speaker 3 (39:59):
Matt Mitchell slowly becoming unhinged by our terrible picks.

Speaker 4 (40:02):
It's great.

Speaker 1 (40:02):
Matt Mitchell is getting for so many reasons. Matt Mitchell
was getting grumpier and grumpy.

Speaker 4 (40:07):
The man that that's the under eighty last night gets
mad at us.

Speaker 1 (40:10):
He's got so many more reasons to be grumpy. It's
just lovely, Matt. You and I can talk about this
in our one on one this week.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
Times stop speaking. How come you won't let America hear
the whole story?

Speaker 4 (40:23):
Who's pocket are you in?

Speaker 3 (40:24):
Well? This whole thing is a travesty and a sham
and a mockery.

Speaker 2 (40:28):
It's a Travis sham mockery.

Speaker 1 (40:31):
Seattle at Arizona. Arizona is a two and a half
point favorite in this game. Do we think Seattle's defense
is better than Arizona's.

Speaker 4 (40:40):
I'll give Seattle defense respect.

Speaker 3 (40:42):
They've definitely gotten better's got along where they were a
team that I was just like, I thought it was
fluky a couple of their matchups. I was like, ah,
it was kind of what the teams are playing. But no,
they've they've been really good down the stretcher, and we
we kind of heard that that was going to be
the part right of their head coach. It was like,
it's going to take a while to learn his defense,
and we've seen that here. But this is another game

(41:02):
where like it was plus three on Seattle, why wouldn't
I take that number?

Speaker 4 (41:07):
Right? I don't know if you feel the same way.

Speaker 3 (41:08):
It's these teams are pretty damn even like they're they're
good and they can move the ball offensively, but they're
terribly inconsistent and they've had a bunch of games.

Speaker 4 (41:20):
Both both of.

Speaker 3 (41:21):
Them have had games where they've easily could have won
or lost. And that they're sitting here now this is
going to decide their division, right, This feels like this
game here, the winner here is kind of, you know,
gonna have to control of their own fate. So Arizona
minus two and a half, Yeah, Chad, you could talk
me into it. But once it's three I'm going to
take Seattle at that number.

Speaker 2 (41:39):
It feels like a no lean for me.

Speaker 1 (41:41):
Home division faves of less than three forty against spread
the past twenty years, So like, I don't feel strongly
about this game. I like, you know, amazingly. I like
Miami minus six and a half. I like Minnesota minus five.
I like that games we have in there more than

(42:02):
I like this one.

Speaker 3 (42:03):
Yeah, there's some games this week now it's like it's
pretty kind of the number, but it's I really don't.

Speaker 4 (42:08):
Want to get that much action on it. They're just some.

Speaker 3 (42:12):
Of these teams are who we think there, which is
just heavily inconsistent, like from week to week.

Speaker 1 (42:17):
Then there's the Chicago Bears. They're playing the San Francisco
forty nine ers. There are four point dogs on the
road in San Francisco. Look, if you like the Bears,
I hope you got them. On Sunday when we talked
about it, they were.

Speaker 2 (42:29):
At six and a half.

Speaker 4 (42:30):
Yeah, that was crazy.

Speaker 1 (42:32):
Now it's four and probably headed to three and a half.
Everything is on the Bears.

Speaker 2 (42:37):
Hungry Bears are violent Bears.

Speaker 1 (42:40):
I think one team is feeling relieved they got rid
of their head coach. That the players hated. I mean,
the unpacking of this the past few days as a
Chicago sports fan has been like revelatory. It's been interesting.
It's been everything that we thought it was, only nobody
would say it. And now that it's over, everyone's getting

(43:01):
to see the truth, which is that Eberflus was a
bad coach who the players didn't like. And then one
team is wondering what happened to its season, And now
Christian McCaffrey's on the IR again, probably out for the year.
Jordan Mason hiss backup who had rush for almost a
thousand yards in his place, he's on IR, likely done
for the year. Like at some point the value on

(43:21):
the Bears I think is gone, but I'm not dying
to bet this game.

Speaker 5 (43:28):
Now.

Speaker 4 (43:28):
And like Trent Williams might be back, but he's dealing
with a lot of.

Speaker 3 (43:31):
Stuff going the off field right now. We think of
him obviously in his family, like he's going through hell and.

Speaker 1 (43:36):
And he has, and like he's been day to day
for two weeks.

Speaker 3 (43:39):
He's injured, right And it's like they only could take
so much. As we always talk about, this was a
team that was very top heavy, right, there were stars
and scrubs and with all these stars out there just
nowhere near the same team they were last year.

Speaker 1 (43:52):
And.

Speaker 4 (43:54):
Party is totally out of.

Speaker 3 (43:57):
His comfort zone like he is. You know, he's fought
through injuries as well, but with all those weapons going on,
this offensive line up being what it is, you can
just tell he's not obviously.

Speaker 4 (44:06):
The same player as he was these past two seasons.

Speaker 3 (44:08):
So that Bears number six and a half, that was like,
what in the world is this number?

Speaker 4 (44:13):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (44:14):
It really was, and it sucks it's come down because
I already knew this week the professionals were in the Bears.
They've been on the Bears every week for the last
feels like four weeks, so you knew they'd be on it.
I thought, Okay, the San Francisco forty nine Ers, even
if they lose by fourteen, I still think the public
would come on their side. They have totally jumped ship
on this team, like the public and the professionals now

(44:37):
on this Bears team. So in a normal year, me
and Chad would hammer this forty nine Ers team because
this is just the spot to take them. This is
what you backed the books here. But this has not
been a normal year. I mean even last night, like
the books desperately needed the Cleveland right, all the money,
every teaser in the world was tied to that team
and it didn't hit. Same with that Bills game, like

(44:58):
they desperate need the forgy Ires even close.

Speaker 4 (45:00):
It was a blow.

Speaker 3 (45:01):
Like we've just seen this year, their favorites have been
kind of prosper in the spot.

Speaker 4 (45:06):
So yeah, the public side, it's Joe public.

Speaker 3 (45:09):
It's I know the Bears right now is but right
now to city right now, I'll take it. But I
know I'm gonna get some cause about this one chat
because I do think the number of money is it
might have moved too much at this point and maybe
where we've missed the value on this Bears team and
the value has shifted to the forty.

Speaker 4 (45:23):
Nine ers, but it's still three and a half. It
feels like, isn't there still value there? Maybe have three.

Speaker 3 (45:27):
I can shift it in line on myself and say no,
this might take the forty nine ers. But they feel
like a team that's totally quit on the season because
everything that's going on with the Bears every week, they've
been in it down to the last play and it
just has not broke their way. Right these last couple
of weeks. So yeah, I'll take the Bears here. They
deserve their respect to have this three and a half.

Speaker 1 (45:46):
Well, look, the Bears are certainly gonna be rejuvenated by
the fact they got rid of their coach, by the
fact they feel there might be some competent decision making
in the two to three times when you need it
the most from your head coach, game management, clock management, timeouts,
et cetera. They just haven't had that right, and so

(46:10):
they've been playing at a disadvantage. Are they going to
be so psyched, have such a good attitude, they're not
going to get down.

Speaker 2 (46:16):
From bad mistakes. You're not wrong.

Speaker 1 (46:19):
This team has been fighting to stay in every game
despite playing with an anchor around their ankles as their
head coach, right, I mean, they just have he makes
so many bad decisions. So it's really interesting to me
that so many people are buying into that narrative, which

(46:40):
to me is when you got to fade it, like right,
any other year, You're right, we're hammering the Niners at
this point. If you think about the contest, it's going
to be three and a half in the contest, So
we just you know, whatever, we wanted to get to
in real life, and I'd like to get so I
can't play the Niners. It's gonna be three and a

(47:02):
half in the contest, and I would I would hate
to play the Bears here. I think I think we'd
be miserable playing the Bears here.

Speaker 4 (47:14):
I don't know. I just think.

Speaker 3 (47:17):
I just think it's yeah, you're right, You're right, you
probably would be you know.

Speaker 4 (47:24):
Yeah, it's tough.

Speaker 3 (47:25):
It's tough, especially because I'm the douche sitting here on
the six six and a half tickets where it's like, oh,
I could just not even bet this one. Now, I
already got the good number on the Bears, but we
don't play that here. So yeah, I'll definitely have more
info in this come Thursday. But right now, as we
sit here, I'm with you, it feels like I'm walking
to a trap. But I can't help myself taking the
Bears here.

Speaker 1 (47:43):
It's it's fascinating. You're not wrong about rock Party either.
What a difference it makes not having Brandon at Yuk. Yeah,
you know, that was the guy he was always throwing to.

Speaker 4 (47:55):
So you need twenty yards. I was this guy, you know.

Speaker 1 (47:58):
Like they've got nobody who can get s operation between
aw Yuk and McCaffrey. Those were his safety blankets. That's
where the majority of his passes went. And all of
a sudden, the guy who led them to an NFC
Title Game and his Super Bowl in his first two
seasons and has a big contract coming up. Now you
got to wonder is he going to get a max deal?
Who's going to pay him? Like, what's this deal going

(48:19):
to look like?

Speaker 4 (48:21):
I know, talking to people that work in the organization.
John Lynch midway.

Speaker 3 (48:24):
Through the season was kicking himself not moving off debo
like they were trying to move him before the season.
He thought, you know what, I'll keep the band together
one more year and then we'll trade him next year
because they're tied Ayuk now for years to come. And
Deebo's value was just the bottom of the barrel. Now
that guy, he is not that good right now.

Speaker 2 (48:44):
Get out early.

Speaker 1 (48:46):
That's the mantra, Get out early, Buffalo at the Los
Angeles Rams.

Speaker 2 (48:50):
The Rams are four and a half.

Speaker 1 (48:52):
Look, this was a decent move off of the Sunday
Night Superman performance by Josh Allen. It opened at three
and a half to bet the bills at three and
a half. Now it's at four and a half. You
made a great point on Sunday night. The Bills don't
tend to lose these kinds of games. I interpreted that
as them being a favorite in the spot where you

(49:13):
normally like.

Speaker 2 (49:14):
To take a dog, So I looked it up.

Speaker 1 (49:16):
Allen is a favorite of more than three fifty five
percent against spreading, his career on the road fifty seven percent.

Speaker 2 (49:25):
Against spread.

Speaker 4 (49:26):
We talked just the matchup too right.

Speaker 3 (49:28):
We were saying this Bill's team, their identity of running
the ball down, team's throats. You saw it there on
Sunday night, like it's incredible how Joe Brady's transformed that offense.
Where I feel like such an idiot, even though I
did take their overcoming the season, it was just.

Speaker 4 (49:40):
Like, how did we doubt that offense with Josh Allen?
Goosh Allen?

Speaker 2 (49:44):
Gosh alert here with Josh Allen.

Speaker 7 (49:51):
He's a football player through and through, and there we go,
drugs to excuse me?

Speaker 5 (50:02):
Touchdown?

Speaker 3 (50:03):
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?

Speaker 4 (50:05):
Goodness, there's no.

Speaker 5 (50:07):
Fear, no ways down going.

Speaker 4 (50:22):
Oh my god.

Speaker 3 (50:24):
The demand is to do something about this out of
regeous Man making louder and louder.

Speaker 4 (50:32):
He's so good, he's so unique.

Speaker 3 (50:34):
I mean, obviously he should be the MVP favor right now.
I mean, this is it's lined up perfectly to their
Their division is so bad. If they can just survive
these next five weeks and get that one seed, get
Kansas City to come to Buffalo, It's it's just so
lined up for them this year, Like, how do they
not make the super Bowl this year?

Speaker 4 (50:51):
This Bills team, I just you know, I love.

Speaker 3 (50:53):
Their defense while they're playing, but offensively, I'll never have
fear when they're down, Like they're just gonna be a
team that's never dead because they're just so in sync
right now offensively, and Josh Allen's went at such a
high level. So yeah, wanted to be on the Rams.

Speaker 4 (51:08):
I joked.

Speaker 3 (51:09):
I've lost a small house betting the Rams this season,
and I'm not gonna be sucked. And even though this
is another spot that stinks, like this number of stinks,
I don't know how the Rams are gonna cover it.
The books they they believe the Rams are going to
somehow cover this summer, but I'm just totally off with
this where it's like, I think it's all because of Stafford, though,

(51:30):
this number is what it is, if it's if it's
not all the respect we give to him, this number
is easily six six and a half. Stafford has not
been the Stafford of the like the past. He's been
terribly inconsistent this season and like he goes on little runs,
We'll play great for a quarter, maybe get a couple
of touchdowns, and then he'll just disappear for two or
three quarters. He's just been so inconsistent this year. And
this Bills team, I get it. They people expect him

(51:52):
have a letdown game here and I totally view that that.
That's why I wanted to be on the Rams here.
It's like, how do you not have a letdown game?
But with them chasing that one Sea chat and just
how locked in Josh Allen is, I just I can't
see it. So there's a couple of fours out there,
if you still want to grab it, I would.

Speaker 4 (52:09):
I just I think this Bills team is so good.

Speaker 3 (52:12):
On the flip side, this Rams team, we've seen it.
They're just not that team we thought they were gonna
be coming this season. Doesn't matter that they have, you know,
two of the best receivers in football in a really
good running game. They just aren't consistent offensively and defensively.
They can't stop the run. We even saw it last week,
like Taysom Hill going out was a gift for them
because he was running all over them, him and Kamar.

Speaker 4 (52:30):
So yeah, totally off this RAMS team. I would buy
on this bill.

Speaker 1 (52:34):
Spot past block and for the Rams is the issue.
We've talked about this specifically on Sunday Night.

Speaker 2 (52:41):
What you just said.

Speaker 1 (52:43):
Stafford goes on these little streaks, but eventually they have
that sack at the exact wrong time, or they can't
get that extra yard at the exact wrong time because
the offensive line, even though they finally have all their
starters back, it's just been terrible this year.

Speaker 3 (52:59):
So yeah, I sold some seat. Last week was the
first time in the base coaching career he was shut
out in our first half.

Speaker 2 (53:06):
Yeah, it's you.

Speaker 3 (53:07):
Should go through the list of the quarterbacks he scored
points with in the first half in his career.

Speaker 4 (53:11):
It's just something's wrong with that Rams offense.

Speaker 2 (53:13):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (53:13):
I think they're good against bad teams, and they can
get away with it against bad teams, but mediocre tore
great teams, it's not going to happen.

Speaker 2 (53:20):
What's interesting here with the bills.

Speaker 1 (53:23):
Obviously they're a huge public side, but it's the money,
meaning the professionals have come in hard on this team.
Sixty one percent of the tickets are on Buffalo eighty
four percent of the money. When there's that big of
a discrepancy, that tells you that the public is obviously
coming in. But the professionals have been coming in at
a very high rate on the Buffalo bills, so they'll

(53:44):
be on there.

Speaker 4 (53:44):
The three and a half was a bad number to open.

Speaker 2 (53:46):
Yep, Hey, folks, a reminder.

Speaker 1 (53:49):
We've got the Favorites podcast watch party on December twelfth
coming up fast. It's nine days from today. A week
from this Thursday, we're going to the Wicked Wolf in
Center City, Philadelphia. We're doing free drinks, qan and A
with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell will be there too.

(54:10):
People can ask him why he's so grumpy lately. Doors
open at six pm. We're all gonna stick around and
we're gonna watch the Thursday night football game between these
Rams who we love and the Niners. It's turning into
a fantastic matchup. We're all gonna want to hang out
for this. We're gonna bet, We're gonna have a few drinks,
We're gonna have a conversation. We're gonna have a really

(54:30):
good time. Our SVP Please r SVP for this free event. Okay,
check out the link in either the podcast or YouTube
episode description pages. Simon and I are tweeting it out,
we're threading it out, we're blue skying it out. Wherever
you are, we will be there and you will all

(54:52):
be with us. At the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia,
December twelfth, doors open six pm. Chargers of Kansas City
Chargers were four and a half on Sunday night.

Speaker 2 (55:04):
We liked it.

Speaker 1 (55:04):
Then they moved to four at bat three sixty five.
They're at three and a half at a lot of
other books. I think we still take the Chargers at
plus three and a half, and that's sort of the
line in the sand.

Speaker 3 (55:19):
Yeah, obviously we both love the way more four and
a half because this game is going to come down
to the very end, just the way they've always played
each other.

Speaker 4 (55:26):
It's always very tight and comes down to the last possession, and.

Speaker 3 (55:31):
The fear here is something you kind of nailed last
week that I underrated a little bit of that.

Speaker 4 (55:36):
JK.

Speaker 3 (55:36):
Dobbins was, you know, a difference maker for that Chargers team,
like he really was.

Speaker 4 (55:40):
You saw last week that was by far the worst Chargers.

Speaker 3 (55:43):
Game of the season against an Atlanta defense is not
that good, certainly not on the level of this Kansas
City team. You expect this Kansas City team to bounce
back after their worst defensive performance of the year in
my opinion, and back to back weeks. Right, they struggled
against Carolina, They just struggled against the It's.

Speaker 4 (56:00):
Like, I can't believe it.

Speaker 3 (56:02):
It's like this is not the Bags defense were used to,
especially at this point in December. So it is really
mean you trusting the numbers and the fact that this
Chiefs team just plays games close, especially these Chargers games,
where it's like, even when they were much better than
this Chargers team, you know, Herbert always find a way
to keep it close and lose always in the last possession.

(56:24):
I mean, he always loses somehow on the last possession
against this Chiefs team. So I don't know if I'll
be in our money line around Robin the Chargers, but
at four three and a half, I'm with you.

Speaker 4 (56:33):
Ched I would take still the Chargers at that number.

Speaker 3 (56:35):
This line should just be three. We're getting good value here.
We'll see if the books keep shifting it. Because you know,
we both knew Sunday night this was going to be
a heavy public siding professional side of this Chargers team.
Just yeah, everyone was watching that Black Friday's game and
they're totally off this Chiefs team. I mean, it's just
a week of the pundit saying lines too many injuries,

(56:55):
they're they're done for the season. This is the banged up,
bad Chiefs team. They're not the same Chiefs teams last
year at this exact point. This Chiefs team last year
was even worse. It's just a week of everyone's shitting
on this Chiefs team. So that's kind of the fear
right chat. It's like, at what point this plut perception
overrate and they adjust too much of this Chiefs team.
I don't think they have yet this point. Like we
just said, this number should be three, it's four, Go

(57:17):
grab the four.

Speaker 2 (57:20):
A lot of injuries for this Chargers team, not just JK.

Speaker 1 (57:23):
Dobbins. I think that is a big deal. They do
not have an effective running back on the roster. Right now,
and their only receiving threat is lad McConkie, so a
lot of challenges for them. I actually worry more about
their injuries than I do about the Lions, because the
Lions have I think more offensive firepower whereas and the

(57:48):
cluster of injuries for the Lions as comps, because both
teams have a lot of injuries is on defense, whereas
the Chargers have a cluster of injuries but a key
positions in the defensive backfield, along the defensive line, in
the in the offensive backfield, different spots. So it's it's
it's to me, it's a it's not a guarantee that

(58:10):
we want to take the Chargers. Last time on the board,
Cincinnati at Dallas. Dallas is at five and a half.
I liked the Cowboys on Sunday night, and try as
I might, I still don't hate it. And you know,
the defense is getting better with Micah Parsons and the
Bengals pass blocking is just fucking terrible, like bottom five

(58:35):
according to Pro Football Focus.

Speaker 2 (58:38):
I don't think it's going to get un our five.
It's not an exact decision, but I still don't hate
the Cowboys.

Speaker 4 (58:48):
I don't either.

Speaker 3 (58:48):
It's just our fear here is if if this does
turn into a shootout, we're probably cooked. Right, There's there's
no world that Cooper Rush to keep up with Joe Burrow.

Speaker 4 (58:58):
But you just said it like this is who the
hell are this Bengals seem to be catching this many points.
I don't care if it is Cooper Rash. It's like, okay, if.

Speaker 3 (59:06):
It was three and a half, that would make sense
that five and a half, and you liked it at six,
which I agreed with. I was like, okay, it's six.
This is a good number. Unfortunately, the professionals agreed with Chad.
They bet this now it is five and a half.
I'll pass on it now and just hopefully it goes
back to six. And if it doesn't get to six,
you know, I know, I've gone to talk to myself
and it taken Dallas just because this number is too big.

(59:28):
But for contest purposes, I wouldn't put this in less
those six and a half.

Speaker 1 (59:32):
The professionals always agree with Chad. It's like a recurring
theme on this show. Other than when he's not remembering
the Giants not having their most dominant player on defense,
he's generally pretty sharp.

Speaker 4 (59:47):
Locked in.

Speaker 1 (59:53):
Well said and so few words, all right, Simon says,
is Cleveland plus six and a half, exec decision, Minnesota
minus five and a half. We're feeling fox holy.

Speaker 4 (01:00:06):
We'll right at Minnesota. You can get you go five
right about three six five?

Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
At what did I say from Minnesota? I said five
and a half? I meant five.

Speaker 1 (01:00:15):
We're feeling fox holy about Miami at minus six and
a half. Will confirm that as the number hopefully goes
down as a miner. The Favorites podcast is presented by
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Speaker 4 (01:01:26):
Love you.

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