3 & Out - TNF Reaction, Massive win for the Lions, Belichick to UNC? - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
What is going on everybody? How are we doing? Probably
not as good as Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions.
Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions win again, because that's
all they do. Baby, doesn't matter who's playing defense. Campbell,
Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn, what a performance. Dan goes for

(00:37):
it when he because that's what he does. It works
four or five on fourth down. We will dive into
that game. Jordan Love heat it up in the second half,
but a little too little, too late after the first
half of that game where they only scored seven points,
but massive win for the Lions and basically and Green

(01:00):
Bay's time competing to win the division. Green Bay is
a wild card team now, so we'll dive into that.
Bill Belichick has interviewed with North Carolina North Carolina, you know,
obviously not the Carolina Panthers, the University of North Carolina.
I watched Hard Knocks today. They do an nd season

(01:21):
Hard Knocks on the AFC North. A couple thoughts there.
It's Fugazi Friday, so we got to talk about a
couple of fugazi's. I saw an Instagram post from a
man schefter I like Adam and these aren't his words.
There was just I mean one of the biggest fugazi
statements I have ever seen in my entire life. So
we will dive into that and Stuckey, who joins the

(01:44):
show every single week, we'll talk a little gambling. I mean,
we got college football. We got the SEC, the Big
Ten game, the ACC game Boise plays Friday night against UNLV.
That's a good game. So we'll dive into all that,
and some NFL games to bet on as well. And
other than that, subscribe to the YouTube channel, put up
a golf video I mean playing nine holes well, the

(02:05):
other nine holes next week actually played pretty well. We
will if you listen on Collins feed. Make sure you
subscribe to the three and out feed, appreciate everyone that
has and other than that, Before we dive into some football,
you know, I got to tell you about my friends,
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(03:33):
The day last minute takets low as price is guaranteed.
I think we can put it in stone. I think
you know when in if you're gonna win a golf
major or a tennis major and they give you that
trophy when it's clearly gonna win it, and they start
engraving your name. I think you can engrave Dan Campbell's
name as the coach of the year. I thought tonight was.

(03:53):
I mean, it's one of the more defining wins of
his short, awesome tenure in Detroit. But to win this
game against a red hot Green Bay Packers team when
your entire defense wasn't there, and to do it because
you play like you're always gonna play. And I have

(04:15):
been critical in the past, I thought him doing this
in the NFC Championship game was a little reckless, but
I thought tonight it was the right move. You're missing
that many defensive players. You have to stick with who
you are. And let's face it, most human beings have
a couple characteristics, or successful human beings have certain characteristics

(04:36):
that are the reason they're in those positions. And I'll
never forget when Dan Campbell got hired, or at least
early on in his Detroit career, he said, listen, I'm
a lot different guy than I am than I would
have been if I would have been named the Miami
head coach when I was the interim because Sean Payton
taught me something Because at my core, I wanted to
be this old school conservative guy, run the ball, punt

(04:58):
play defense, that's the football. I grew up on Bill Parcels,
and then I got around Sean Payton in New Orleans
and I learned that, like, that's not going to get
it done, but specifically tonight, that was not going to
get it done because you have two units, right, Obviously,
you get special teams to be offensive defense. Their offense
is fucking incredible, it really is. I mean, they have

(05:20):
a Pro Bowl quarterback. They have the best running back
duo I think I've ever seen. I mean the Gibbs
Montgomery season. They are going to have statistically one of
the most historical duo seasons of all time. I mean,
they're on pace for like thirty plus touchdown combined and
probably about three thousand dollar purpose yards. Laporte is a
star tight end, Saint Brown's a stud. The other wide

(05:42):
receivers all make plays. I mean Tim Patrick had multiple
touchdowns to night. Their offensive line is elite, and they
were missing their left tackle tonight. But it's like I'm
gonna lean on what got me to the dance and
if we're gonna lose tonight. We're gonna lose because of
this offense. And at one point in time in the
second half, when GoF throws the interception, You're like, can't
afford to do that tonight. You can't afford to make

(06:03):
a mistake against this defense. And it was a bad
uncharacteristic interception, like he hit Nixon twenty five like he
was an offensive player. He kind of came out of nowhere.
And beside that, I mean down the stretch. I think
on the last drive, al Michael's like Jared gobs like
fourteen to fourteen out of his last fourteen passes. And
one thing Jared Goff really hangs or two things I

(06:25):
would say he hangs his hat on is accuracy and
mental toughness, and that was on full display tonight. And
I think Dan Campbell knows it clearly and they lean
on that unit and as he should. And tonight that
won in the game because they had four they went
for it on five fourth downs, but they had four
massive fourth downs. Two of them they scored touchdowns, another

(06:46):
one they got stuffed on fourth and one in their
own territory, which a couple of plays later leads to
a touchdown, so that fourteen points actually goes down to seven.
So on the fourth downs, you know you got two
GoF touchdowns, you have a Jacob touchdown, so that's a
seven point swing. And then the end of the game,
which I had no problem with because in this situation,

(07:08):
when you're rolling out the randos that they are with defense,
when you're playing a team who was red hot in
the second half offensively and with the skill guys they
have on the outside, that's pretty risky. And all it
takes is for a miscommunication. Brian Branch was cramping up.
He was out of the game. Obviously, your front seven
is a bunch of guys that you could probably barely

(07:29):
point out of a lineup. Go with what you you
know has got you this far, and I think we
just when you're a gambler, and listen, I am, and
I've been a gambler for a long long time, and
that's kind of how I live my life, not just
gambling on sports, but being aggressive in the stock market,

(07:49):
being aggressive with everything I do business wise. It's kind
of just, you know, ingrained into my soul and it's
not something that I just developed in my late thirties.
I've been that since I can remember in my teenage years,
and I think who you are and what you become
successful doing, you have to stick with it, and sometimes

(08:12):
it's gonna let you down. It's not always gonna work.
I mean, it literally didn't work in the biggest game
Dan Campbell's ever coached, in the NFC Championship Game. It
backfired when he went for it when he probably should
have kicked a field goal. Now it's easy to play
the butterfly effect, what would happen. I think he made
the wrong decision in that game, especially given the score
and how he was playing. Part of making these decisions

(08:34):
is the score and who you got if you get
stuffed or if you don't score a touchdown or whatever.
You know, the result of the opposite action that you want, right,
So it's one thing, Hey, best case scenario we ice
the game here, Well, if we kick a field goal
and they get the ball back at the thirty and
all of a sudden, three plays later, you know, with

(08:56):
ten fifteen seconds left, they got twenty yards, they're in
the red zone. We got problems. So I completely understood it.
I admire the decision because it takes balls and so
many people, and being a coach is not about like
Dan Campbell is a tough guy, and if we just
had to rank the coaches, like if they were actually
gonna get into a physical fight. Now with Rabel gone,

(09:18):
he probably is the number one overall pick. But that's
never mattered, right, Like having balls of being a decision
maker has nothing to do with your physical toughness. We've
seen Antonio Pierce all year long make the opposite decisions
coach scared, and he clearly would be a top two
or three draft pick in the fight. You know, on

(09:38):
the Coach Royal Rumble, it's about a mentality and it's
about a willingness to know, like this might go wrong.
I don't give a fuck. I believe at the time
this is the right decision. I believe in my unit.
I believe we have to do this to win the game,
and most importantly, I believe in you guys being able
to get it done. And on that play, it looked

(10:00):
when Jared Goff started to trip, You're like, holy shit,
this is gonna go really bad. And somehow Jared Goff,
who reminds me intangibly a lot of Alex Smith, where
one of their greatest characteristics is their mental toughness and Alex,
once he got around Harbaugh, never look back. One difference though,

(10:22):
is Jared also kind of like Peyton Manning throws a
wobbly spiral, but he's a much better passer and has
a much better arm than Alex. Now, Alex was a
better runner of the football, like he's a better athlete.
Jared can't really move, but Jared's a much better pure
passer from the pocket, and you see that come out

(10:43):
throughout the game as he threw dime after dime and
like on that play a lot of people because let's
face it, like sometimes when you put a lot of
emphasis into one individual thing and it goes wrong, immediately
human reaction from most of us is to immediately freak.
And when you start falling. How many times have we

(11:05):
seen quarterbacks try to throw the running back the ball
sometimes just hold onto the ball. Just a play is
a disaster. And he was able to get that to
Montgomery and all of a sudden, Montgomery's way past the
line of scrimmage, first down, end a game. What a moment,
I mean, what an incredible moment for a franchise that
has been just a complete laughing stock to go into

(11:26):
this game as someone who get like I said, I
like to gamble tonight. I didn't pull the trigger, and
I'm glad I didn't because I was about to put
a lot of money on green Bay. I'm like, I
like green Bay a lot. In this spot in the
dome playing Detroit and then early on in the game,
Jamal Adams is out there, You're like, what is this Howard?

(11:46):
Are they going to hang in this game? And they
did because of a coaching staff, and they did because
of a quarterback. And they did because you know, we
throw this word around a lot culture and I think
leader of men, And sometimes I see people try to like,
what does that even mean? Like, I think you kind
of know it when you see it, like any human

(12:07):
being that's ever been around a big time leader, Like
it's harder to describe, but when you're around it, you
just want to follow that person wherever he plans ongoing.
You will be right by his side like a dog,
you know, with his owner. And I think that's what
Dan Campbell has given this Lion's team when they go

(12:27):
into a game, whether they're playing the Packers, whether they're
playing fucking Alabama, whether they're playing the Chiefs. It doesn't matter,
and it really it improved the night, does not matter
who's playing. He gives them the mindset and the belief
they can win. Obviously they have a really talented offense,
but to win this game the night with those guys
on defense is one of the crowning achievements of the

(12:51):
regular season. It truly is, and honestly might be the
most impressive coaching job I've seen this year, and that
includes Aaron Glenn, because I thought this game was one
for the like when you look back in the first half,
Jordan Love didn't even throw for fifty yards in the
first half, they had seven points. It was seventeen to
seven and a half, and you're like, Aaron Glenn. Every

(13:14):
single opening in the NFL should interview Aaron Glenn to
be their next head coach. On that first half performance alone,
it was set all week. Like, listen, I'm not as
worried about them knowing the playbook. Their entire defensive line
was gone. They have like thirteen impact players who just
couldn't play tonight. And then as the game went on, they're,

(13:35):
you know, beside a Hutchson, their second best defensive player,
gets cramps is to leave the game against an offense
that has like four or five offensive weapons beside the
quarterback that every team in the league would want. It's like,
how are they gonna win this thing? And to me,
Dan Campbell, Aaron Glenn, Jared Goff, just the mentality, the metal, toughness,

(13:57):
the mindset, totally unfazed tonight. Back to Jared Goff after
he throws the pick. They're up seventeen to seven. The
Packers come out in the second half, Love hits Watson
on the double move for a huge play that kind
of gets their offense some momentum. They score I think

(14:18):
Tucker Craft. A couple of plays later, seventeen to fourteen,
Lions get the ball, GoF throws a pick. Then a
couple plays later, Jacob's in the end zone. All of
a sudden is twenty four to twenty one, and I'm like,
I don't know. I feel like the damn is broke.
I feel like there's no way to contain this rush

(14:40):
that is about to come from Green Bay. What is
Detroit gonna do? And then what happens? Jared Goff, after
an awful interception, leads him right down the field twenty eight,
twenty four, And to me, when I look at this
Lions team, obviously the skill guys, I mean that running
back duo they have like last year, I think Christian McCaffery.
Usually the NB goes to a quarterback, and oftentimes if

(15:03):
a skill guy like a wide receiver running back has
an awesome season, they usually get Offensive Player of the
Year at like the NFL Awards. I know you can't
do this because it's two guys, but to me, the
Offensive Player of the Year are those two running backs.
Because tonight was just a clinic they had. Montgomery had

(15:24):
fourteen carries, Gibbs had fifteen carries. Montgomery had a touchdown.
Montgomery had five catches, and Gibbs had six catches and
Gibbs had a passing touchdown. You know, we talk a
lot about and Andy's always been big on this with
the Eagles and then Kansas City when people used to
say he passes a lot, he was great at getting

(15:45):
his running back a lot of touches. So if that
was Brian Westbrook or Shady McCoy, and I think they
do the same thing with Gibbs, Like Gibbs had six
catches and fifteen carries, so you're getting the ball in
his hands one times. Like so there are gonna be
games where maybe doesn't have fifteen carries, maybe only has twelve,

(16:05):
but he's gonna be targeted maybe eight nine times in
the passing game. And Ben Johnson and I like, from
an offensive play calling standpoint, uh, he's pretty elite. So
the Lions have an absolute incredible leader with the balls
size of watermelon. I mean he literally might. Dan Campbell's
a big guy. They have a quarterback who was drafted

(16:27):
number one overall, who, over the course of time building callous,
is getting told by McVeigh, you suck, we don't want
any part of you. Has developed this incredible mental toughness
and callouses that like pretty unfazed obviously playing really well.
You have Aaron Glenn that can get guys to play
out of their mind that ninety nine percent of NFL

(16:48):
fans couldn't even point out of the lineup. Half these
guys were on the street a couple weeks ago. You
have Ben Johnson, who I would say, non head coach,
is the best offensive coordinator currently in the NFL. This
is a championship team. I mean we knew this right,
They were clearly the best team in the league, and
then they started getting all these injuries. You're like, I
don't think you can overcome this, and then they do

(17:09):
to do that at home against a team that was
red hot, who I think most people thought was probably
gonna win this game. What a fucking performance by everyone.
Hat tip to Dan Campbell Coach of the Year. Hat
tip to Jared Goff. I mean, all time career resurrection
with the Detroit Lions. Ben Johnson gonna be a head coach,
Aaron Glenn should be a head coach. The running back

(17:32):
duo never forget. And this is why, like I'm not
as into the weeds of like stamping, like you gotta
draft this guy in the third, you gotta draft this
guy in the fourth. I love this guy. This guy sucks,
Like I just kind of feel it out. Talk to
my buddies, Like, obviously I watched a ton of college football,
so I got opinions on guys, but not to level

(17:53):
like the mel Kipers of the world. And I thought
it was so laughable the night of the draft, in
a draft that I remember, all my buddies in the
NFL were like, this is one of the worst drafts
I've ever seen. And Jamiir Gibbs clearly was one of
the ten best players in the draft, but he played
running back, and while everything is shifted and now running
backs are cool again, it was like, you can't take

(18:14):
a running back eye. So they went from six to twelve.
They went from six to twelve and essentially got Jamiir
Gibbs and Sam Laporta. It's one of the great draft
day trade you'll ever see. I mean, Jamiir Gibbs, as
Herbstreet was talking tonight, is like, uh, I don't know,
Kamara meets Christian McCaffrey. And while Laporta had a bad

(18:38):
drop tonight, he made one catch extended with a dB
on him. You're like, holy shit, that's what a blue
chip tight end looks like. Stud And yeah, I mean
I got a mailback question recently about James and Williams.
You know, obviously he's had some issue issues with the Lions,
got in a little trouble, get yelled at by Ancheline randellll.

(18:58):
He had a solid night to night, five catches, eighty yards.
Just an explosive player. If you can get him in space,
you get him on those drag routes, you can get
him down the sideline and you get the ball in
his hands. It's like Christian Watson, you know, you just
let the guy run because those two guys can fly,
and Christian Watson had to play to night. Obviously, that fumble,
you know, was a huge swing in the first half.
It looked like they were gonna drive and all of

(19:20):
a sudden he fumbles and it was a big moment.
But what a moment for the line. I don't really
know what to say about the Packers. I mean, if
I gave Aaron Glenn a ton of credit for the
first half holding them to seven points, I think if
you're Green Bay and you come into this game, you
could argue they lost the game in the first half
because in the second half, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. I mean,

(19:45):
Jordan Love was like avoiding blitzes, like up and under guys,
hitting layer throws, going through progressions. Jordan Love in the
second half, Like that's why you give the guy one
hundred and fifty million dollars. That was the guy we
saw a second half of last season. That was the
guy that led you to the playoffs and then roasted
the Cowboys and dan Quinn's defense and put Mike McCarthy

(20:07):
on the hot seat. It's like that guy, but not
showing up in the first half and only having seven
points and just being discombobulated on an offense like you
might have been able to score fifty points. This defense
wasn't going to be able to, you know, stop a nosebleed,
and to only have seven points at the end of
the first half. Obviously your offense really got going in

(20:29):
the second, but that was pretty crippling because if it's
just seventeen to fourteen, you might win this game kind
of easily, but at seventeen to seven and you needed
every one of those points just to be in position.
So listen, I think Lafleur's awesome. I like Jordan Love,
but he's been a little like this this season, and
in that game, in the first half, their whole offense

(20:50):
was just it's like felt like they were trying to
run it a lot, because obviously they had a bunch
of injuries, and obviously they had the fumble and the
one explosive play to Christian Wahtsus, but they got way
too much talent. I mean, you see wis making incredible plays. Obviously,
you know Tucker Craft's a stud. Watson to me, he
should like James and Williams should be getting deep targets

(21:12):
all the time. You just gotta have more points. I
understand it's a road game. I understand this's a really
good team, but when you factor in the personnel they
were rolling out that that just can't happen. And now,
I mean, this ends green Bay's chance for a division.
This doesn't lock up Detroit by any means to win
the division. They still got Minnesota on their heels. But

(21:35):
green Bay's a wildcardan like, that's who they are, and
we saw last year went on the road to Dallas,
won a game you know, Detroit still and now they
get that kind of mini buy. Ideally you get some
guys back because they're playing Buffalo next game, which is
a massive game for both teams. But in that game
is that game's at home, so they get the game

(21:58):
in Detroit. So Troit's last four games are gonna be
the Bills at the Bears, at the Niners against Minnesota.
Green Bay goes at Seattle Saints at Minnesota Bears. So
I think green Bay you are looking at like eleven
twelve wildcard team, five seeds, six seed. I guess probably

(22:22):
not the five seed, because more likely it's gonna be
whoever doesn't win the division between Detroit and Minnesota, which
I if I was a betting man, I would say
Minnesota after tonight. But that's a tough, tough l It's
one thing, like, listen, the Lion's fully healthy. Nothing wrong
to lose to them, absolutely nothing. It's just you tip
your hat. They're an excellent team. They've I mean, basically,

(22:44):
what's the record these last two years? Well, they do
last year twelve and five, and they're what twelve and
one now, so you're looking at a twenty four and
six team over the last two seasons, like it's they're
fucking good. There's nothing wrong losing to them on the
road techonically not a short week because both these two
teams played on Thanksgiving, But to lose to that defense,
like those players like they were rolling Jamal Adams out there,

(23:08):
Jamal Adams was running around, felt like more of the
first half in the second half, I don't have a
snapcout in front of me, But I don't know, man,
that's Tonight's Tonight's a rough one for Lafloor, Like he's
not that first half. He's got a lot of plays
out there that he would like back. Because Love missed
a touchdown to There was a touchdown that he missed.

(23:31):
I guess they ended up getting a PI on the
next play and he scored to make a ten to seven,
But he missed some plays. Sometimes when Glove's off, it's
weird because he can flip into this player where you're
like the throw that he made I think to start
the first half or the second half to Watson, and
then there was another play where he avoided a blitz
in the middle of I think the third quarter. It's like,

(23:51):
this guy looks like Rogers. Like that he moves around
like Rogers, the way he lets the ball go and
kind of like flick of the wrist. It's like that's
he's he's copying Aaron Rodgers. And then the play looks
like Aaron Rodgers. But then he also has these plays
that like Aaron Rodgers. Once he got really good rarely
had We're like, what the fuck was that? Jordan rough One.

(24:13):
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Speaker 2 (26:07):
Let's get into William Belichick, who who made some made
some news today. He has interviewed with the North Carolina
tar Heels. University of North Carolina just fired former national
champion Mac Brown, who was very bitter about getting fired.

Speaker 1 (26:26):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (26:27):
I think they basically had to drag his old ass out.
He like refused to resign. It was kind of ugly,
but it's like, Mack, you kind of suck. It is
what it is. Uh, but it's over. And they interviewed Belichick,
and I've gotten a couple of texts tonight like do
you think he would No, he wouldn't do this would
hee The analogy I would use is any human being

(26:49):
that's that's listening to this, that might be in a relationship, married,
you know, dating someone when you are single and you
want to get someone to notice you, or just a
general not even like you're just trying to date people.
It is amazing what happens when in the social media era,

(27:09):
like you post a picture out with someone cute, throw
it on that story and watch those dms kind open up.
Back in the day before social media is like walk
into a party with a girl that you want to
get with and bring someone with you. Play a little
human psychology. I'll promise you this it works well. What

(27:30):
does Belichick need to show that people want him for?
As much as I think like it's a lock he's
going to get a job, it isn't. He's seventy two,
seventy three years old, and while he's done a good
job of done everything humanly possible to change his image,
part of his image at the end of the run
in New England won he was an atrocious general manager

(27:54):
and he was like one of the most giant curmudgeons
in the history of the world. Just an angry little
health not a fun guy to be around, which never
mattered when they were winning all the time. When you
start losing, it's like no one wants to be around you,
And I do think you need to change that perception.
So if you want to get her to notice you
walk in with an eight and a half, I bet

(28:16):
you would. And while this is not the NFL, he
can't interview with an NFL team right now, and there
aren't any college openings, but I think this is a
pretty strategic play. Now, if you came back, like, do
you think he's actually interested in this? I would be
shocked if you went to college now if it was

(28:36):
the equivalent of like you know, for him, I couldn't
see him coaching in this South, like I don't feel
Belichick in the SEC, but like Wood, he coach at
Ohio State or Michigan or Notre Dame like those type
programs feel a lot like Bill Belichick, kind of Northeast
presidential and regal like even though Belichick wears like shitty clothes.
But you know what I mean, I'd be stunned if

(28:59):
you went to North Carolina. I would. But as listen,
anytime that you don't have much going on of things
that you want going on. It never hurts to listen.
How many people, whether you own a business, whether you
work for someone who you know is a deal maker,
do you just see them like, why'd you talk to
that guy? It's like, well, it never hurts to listen.

(29:22):
It's like, we wouldn't do business with that guy. Well, yeah,
it's like why wouldn't he invited me to lunch? Why
wouldn't I take lunch? See what he has to say.
Maybe I'll even gain some information. So pat Fordy said
that he's interested in college. I personally think it's more
just showing, like you know, Belichick's Belichick's being sought after

(29:44):
by somebody, and that just gets like NFL owners. I
also think it puts a little pressure on them, like
you want me, Like I got options. I think the fastest,
you know, way to kind of generate some buzz if
you're Belichick is to let people know people want you.
Because last year what happened, there was only one team
interested in him, and that was Atlanta, and it turns

(30:06):
out they didn't hire him because you know, the front
office didn't want him to basically, you know, whack up
all them, because that's what Belichick would have wanted them
all fired, and so they fought him off a lot
like what happened with Kevin Warren. Story broke today Jim
Harbaugh was very interested in the Chicago Bears job. Well,
who knicks that immediately? Kevin Warren? Well, why would Kevin

(30:30):
Warren nix that immediately? Because if mccaskey's are like, let's
talk to Jim Harball, and then they realized, let's just
hire Jim Harball, what would Jim Harball want Kevin Warren fired?
Its just classic job preservation. Everyone's trying to survive, whether
you have a job that pays you eighty grand or
whether you have a job like Kevin Warren, they might
pay you a couple million dollars. The human psychology in

(30:51):
the mindset for a guy like Kevin Warren, who's just
a corporate survivor, doesn't change just because the money's any different.
If anything, it makes him more willing, Like I ain't
giving up this fucking job. I run the Bears. There
is a zero chance I'm letting Harba in here, and
that's not gonna change with Belichick, Like there are gonna
be teams and people that are close to the owner
that even if GMS and stuff get fired on some

(31:13):
of these teams that are gonna not want Bill into
their ecosystem because that could mean them getting asked out.
So there are gonna be a lot of different you know,
cooks in the kitchen with this. And to me, this
is a strategic move I would imagine by people around
Bill or I mean, Bill's been doing this long enough
to also know, like get them talking about you, not

(31:35):
just talking about you about like your take on Brian
day Ball or your take on Robert Sala or your
take on Daniel Jones or you know whatever, Like Okay,
we get it. You got you got more football knowledge
than everybody. Like we've seen it. Now, we've seen a
personality that all your players and people who've been around
you already knew you had. You've displayed that. Now now
it's time to be like, I'm not bullshitting, I'm ready

(31:58):
to fuck. Give me a whistle, give me a contract,
let's go, let's go win some games. I think Belichick's
trying to let you know, the owners know, like, eh,
people are talking to me. The other thing I watched
in Hard Knocks, which I wasn't really planning on doing it,
and then my schedule got thrown off today. And I
usually go to the gym sometime between like six thirty

(32:20):
and seven thirty in the morning, try to bang it
out early so we can attack the rest of the day.
But today I'm not going till the afternoon. A little
kind of quiet in there, and all of a sudden,
I was like, I don't really have anything to listen to.
I'm not really feeling music, and I had seen a
clip earlier in the day. I'm like, oh, a hard knock.
So I bring up my HBO Max and I just
watch it on my phone and it's pretty to me

(32:40):
once they get to the games at the end, like
I just watched the Steelers play the Bengals and the
Ravens play the Eagles. Like I don't need highlights of this,
but the actual like game planning, getting ready and the
coaches talking to the team and the position like that
was really cool. But there was a scene in there,
a lot of Steelers, a lot of Tomlin and Tomlin

(33:02):
who defensive guy, hangs out with the defensive staff, so
it looked like a Monday or Tuesday getting ready for
the week. Mike Tomlin is in the defensive staff meeting
room is what I've never been to the Pittsburgh practe facility,
but I've been to enough football ops. Is like I
think it's a defensive staff meeting room where there's usually
a long table and a huge projector to watch film

(33:25):
as a staff. And Tomlin's in there with the defensive
coordinator and the rest of the defensive staff, and all
of a sudden and I would guess this is Monday
or Tuesday, so player's day off. Minka Fitzpatrick walks in
and starts watching film with the rest of them, and
it really hit me, like when you invest in high

(33:46):
end players. And obviously Minco when he's healthy, has been
one of the better players in the NFL. But we
talk a lot about quarterbacks. The reason quarterbacks get so
much money, get so much praise, and are so relied
upon is because there's more on their shoulders. They don't
get to screw off three days a week and just
have to practice a couple days and then get to

(34:07):
play in the game like their Monday through Sunday. Is
a lot like a coach, but the player version, it's
way different than every other player. But I do believe
the best players on your team typically approach their job
like their version of the quarterback, and the draft isn't
that far away, and we're gonna be talking about a

(34:28):
lot of these prospects and nitpicking them. This is why
character football like love of football, love and aspiration to
be a great player. Take a lot of pride in
your craft. This is why Kyler, when the call of
duty thing got put in there, it got so heavily critiqued.
Is because the best players go above and beyond. I

(34:51):
saw this clip on Luke Keikley that makes its round
sometimes on my Instagram feed of him just discussing He's like,
first of all, he's like, you know, he's not quite
good enough and a good enough athlete to make play,
so I have to study extra film. It's him at
like ten o'clock at night on like a Wednesday night
in the Panthers facility watching film. It's like, Luke, no,
you're one of the best athletes in the league. But

(35:12):
in his mind to learn everything, he had to go
above and beyond. And this is what is so difficult about,
you know, scouting young players is you really got to
feel comfortable and the better character, the better wiring. And
the Steelers have been full of these guys for a
long period of time. And Mike Tomlin, because he's such
a great personality, can handle a few kind of wild cards,

(35:35):
you know, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, George Pickens. But for
the most part, like part of the reason the Steelers
don't lose really ever. I know they don't win the playoffs,
but I'm just saying they never have, like what the
Giants are going through, what the Raiders are going through,
what the Jags always go through. With all these shitty
teams end up going through all the time. It's like

(35:56):
the Steelers minimum nine to eight, ten and seven this
year probably be twelve or thirteen wins is because their
team is full of those type guys. And think about it.
When they needed to trade for somebody, and they don't
often do this, they traded a first round pick for
men Convince Patrick, which I thought at the time was insane,
but they knew what they were doing because this guy's
wired like Cam Hayward, like TJ. Watt, like their type guys.

(36:20):
And I just thought it was a scene that probably
won't get talked about a lot, But those are the
type things what I love about football, and really what
I miss about hard knocks that I think is kind
of cool on this end season. This the four teams
is like the nitty gritty Monday through Friday, the grind
and the tape, the coaches working with the players, the

(36:41):
game planning. Obviously the games are the best, but that
element of the chess game is really really cool. Okay,
before we get out of here, I do have to
bring up something on Fugazi Friday because a couple things.

(37:02):
Let's start with this. Actually, Adam Schefter had an Instagram post.
He probably put it on Twitter too. Eric b Enemy,
who was polarizing for a while because it felt like
the NFL was racist not giving him a shot, never
got a job, finally did get his own off left
the Chiefs, becomes offensive coordinator with the Commanders, terrible on offense,

(37:22):
everyone gets fired, and then he goes to UCLA and
becomes the coordinator for the UCLA Bruins. And Ucla actually
only had one less loss than the Trojans, but they
weren't very good this year. And a couple of days ago,
I was talking to someone on the phone in the
loop who was like, Eric Bnemy's gonna get fired, Like seriously,

(37:43):
he's gonna Sean Foster's gonna fire him. He's like, yeah,
they can't stand him. He wouldn't listen to him. And
then today the news breaks. I was like, I wasn't surprised,
but then I read this quote that Adam Schefter put
out from Eric Benim and he's agent, and it read
Eric and UCLA mutually parted ways. Today is previously planned.

(38:07):
He's still getting paid by the commanders. After interviewing for
the head coaching jobs last year, he wanted to stay
active and busy, so he decided to go help DeShawn,
who is like his little brother at UCLA, as opposed
to sitting out the year. The plan was always to
return to the NFL in twenty twenty five, and he's
looking forward to opportunities ahead. That's just boldfaced propaganda. That's

(38:34):
just complete bullshit. Someone around his agent should have been like,
just don't even say anything. You get it's football. Sometimes
you butt heads with people get fired. But to put
out it's also a shot at Deshan Foster. I just
fired you and you're calling me I'm your little brother. No,

(38:55):
I'm Deshan Foster, the head coach at UCLA, and I
no longer want you to be my offensive coordinator. So
you're fired, like that just happened. And then you put
out that statement, I'm his older brother. What that That's
one of the most insane things I've ever read in
my entire life. I can't believe he gave that quote

(39:17):
to Adam Scheffer. It's honestly laughable that they mutually departed
and this was always the plan. This is why, Like
my parents grew up in an era in the fifties
and sixties that when a nuke was coming, you know,
they thought one, they would tell you if you were
a kid, to get under the desk, like that would
save you. And everyone just listened, and the parents were like,

(39:39):
get under those desks. I can't imagine living in those
times like we live in these times where it's like
we just this can't be serious, Like is there is
there a human being who believes this? And listen. I
don't know Eric personally, all my buddies in Kansas City
always liked him, thought he was a good coach, but

(39:59):
like this, this is a joke. This is also a
pretty big f you to de Sean Foster with that
little brother comment. That's pretty embarrassing. This is Eric b
Enemy after leaving the Chiefs. It is not going well.
I feel pretty confident I don't see a path for
him to be an offensive coordinator in the NFL in

(40:19):
twenty twenty five. Just based on that statement alone, it's like,
take some accountability. Man. The other thing that I see
a lot that is just pretty funny. It's like forever
you would get recruited somewhere, you know, the signing day
just happened. It's obviously different now with the transfer portal,
but the high school signing day, and a guy would

(40:40):
be like, you know, I just I just loved coach Middlecoff.
He was just so awesome. He resonated with me, and
my dad loved him, and he was always he came
to my house a couple of times from dinner, and
he's been recruiting me for three years. We's had a
special bond. And I saw a couple of kids a
day just on my Twitter feed. Like given those types

(41:01):
and a big programs, you know, Michigan and Texas, like
guys just say they gave me nine hundred thousand dollars,
like they gave me the most money. Brian Kelly went
on this rant today about the greed and all the bs.
I don't care about any of that. Now. For a
long period of time, when guys flipped last minute in
college football, it was like they got a brown bag.

(41:25):
Now there's a big difference getting a brown bag of
sixty thousand dollars in cash or twenty thousand dollars in
cash or a car than getting you know, potentially a
million dollars. I saw Tulsa. They have parents of kids.
I think Tulsa just fired their coach. Parents of kids
at Tulsa are suing the program because that coach that
was fired at promised kids money. It's like, no one

(41:47):
gives a fuck about any of you guys like this.
No one's gonna give a shit. Sue all you want,
like just verbal agreement, get that thing in writing. But
you guys are a Tulsa. But these big programs, Michigan's
giving out millions, Bama LSU all this stuff. But it
is pretty funny that you see these kids still try

(42:08):
to act like innocent, and which is cool. I mean,
it's an awesome moment. You know you're going on you're
leaving your parents' nests, you know, going to a program,
trying to make your dreams come true and eventually play
in the NFL. But it's all pay for play now,
with any player worth their salt, I mean a minimum
good recruits getting I don't know, seventy five one hundred grand.

(42:30):
All the guys in the top one hundred are getting
paid premiums at least promise premiums. And that's the reason. Now,
whether they get it or not, I don't know. I
don't exactly know how the cash exchange here works. I
would imagine there are sometimes when the money actually does
not hit the account, and there are some promises that
are not actually followed through on. Welcome to life. It's

(42:54):
actually an incredible business life life lesson for any of
these kids that gets dift Like anytime. Shit, I went
through my thirties when a changed careers started doing some stuff,
You're like, you realize, like, yeah, fucking welcome to the
real world. It's great experience. Keep you on your toes.
But yeah, it's just come on, guys, stop pretending you're

(43:16):
going there for the colors in the college atmosphere. You're
going there for one reason and one reason only and last,
but not least, And I'm not here to complain obviously
inflation prices have change. But Southwest, you know Mark Davis
when they used to be in Oakland, he used to
fly everywhere before they moved to Vegas. Everywhere on Southwest.

(43:36):
You could always see Mark Davis at a Southwest terminal,
and Southwest had a lot of great connections. If you
wanted to go to Vegas or southern California, your Arizona,
or wherever around the West coast, it was incredible and
you could fly for really cheap. You could get a ticket.
I mean if you were just a little ahead of
the time on a non busy time, for like fifty
nine ninety nine, it was it was the deal upon

(43:59):
all deals that's out the window. Southwest now, to me
is not that far away from frontier airlines in terms
of like one you don't get that much, and two
you kind of pay a lot. So it's like I
looked at some tickets the other day we had to
fly home two for Christmas, and I was just started looking.

(44:22):
I'm like, what if I flew first class with United
relative to what it would cost me to fly Southwest.
That also includes I always upgrade because I want to
be like a one through fifteen. I hate waiting for
the seas, and it was like a difference of like
four hundred and fifty dollars, and listen, I don't think
I've ever flown first class in my life. But my
point is I just wanted to compare. I'm like, this

(44:43):
is this is no longer some bargain. It was like,
want to get away and give me your credit card
because it's a shitload of money. I don't fly that
much anymore. For those of you that listen, business that
travel a lot probably see this more. I'm less. I'm
not numbed to airline prices, but you know, it's a
handful of times a year, and it's like, it is

(45:04):
what it is. I have to go. I don't. I'm
not flying on a monthly basis to really base prices.
But Southwest where for most of my twenties and definitely
my early thirties. I can't tell you how many times
that I flew round trip different places. I felt like
for ninety nine dollars, one hundred and forty nine dollars

(45:26):
and now that price feels like three x and for
for an airline that used to just be your go
to because it just cost you nothing has now like
bumped up. It's like no different than flying some of
these other airlines like business class. It's it's insane. So Southwest,
you had a hell of a run, but I think
you're I think it's over, okay. After a little Thanksgiving hiatus,

(45:57):
my main man stuck you who was on the ground
last week because it comes at you fast. We had
a lot going on. We didn't get to talk. Well
since we've last talked, Ibra Fluss has been fired. Ryan Day.
I would say in my short list of games in
my life, you know, we've seen crazy NFL upsets, but
during the regular season whatever in college football, that has

(46:22):
to be on the short list of craziest outcomes I've
ever envisioned. I know it was a three touchdown? Was
it twenty two and a half? Twenty three points? I
don't know exactly what it ended at a kickoff, but Stuckey,
long time, no talk. We got, you know, championship weekend.
Ryan Day is not involved. I can't even if you
would have told either of us that two weeks ago

(46:43):
that we'd be sitting here in this game and Ohio
State wouldn't be here, it would have been pretty tough
to believe, wouldn't it.

Speaker 1 (46:49):
Yeah, that was I mean that game set up for
what was the number closed. Michigan took some money, so
did the under late because I think it closed like
eighteen and a half nineteen. But I mean Michigan way down.
They have no offense, and I mean they threw their

(47:09):
quarterback through for sixty yards at two picks. And you
have one of the best teams, the best rosters in
the country at home, you know, near three touchdown favorites,
triple revenge, all like everything was that and to lose
that game is I'm very curious to see how Ohio

(47:33):
State responds after what now will be a long break
before their first playoff game, which will presumably be in Columbus.
We'll see where they end up on the seed line.
But yeah, it's pretty shocking that they lost that game
and they're not in the Big Ten championship, and a
chaotic college football season continues because we have Penn State

(47:57):
and Clemson, two teams that probably didn't think they were
going to be here last weekend, Clemson after they lost
to South Carolina. But then Miami goes down to the
now they're you know, they're hey, we got renewed life.
Iowa stayed out of wait till two in the morning
to see if BYU beat Houston, and now they have

(48:17):
new life. They're in the Big twelve Championship. So yeah,
it's just a chaotic college football season continues. I just
don't think that there are any talked about this all season,
there's any clear cut elite teams. I think there will
be continued chaos in the Collegewell playoff. If you ask
me right now, who's gonna win it? Like, I don't,

(48:39):
I don't even know who. I would say, I got
to see the bracket.

Speaker 2 (48:42):
So and how could you bet Ohio State? I think
I saw this morning as the second best odds. How
could you bet on them to win? Four games? Right?
Or three games? Or what would it take? Twelve eight? Yeah,
four games? That's a lot.

Speaker 1 (48:54):
Yeah, the.

Speaker 2 (48:57):
It's just the bike can't get a pretty big advantage
of it. Like obviously, to me, if Oregon wins, they
have a pretty big advantage getting a home game and
then getting two pretty good setups.

Speaker 1 (49:06):
Right, well, if they win, they would have a buye
and then they wouldn't get a home game. The home
games are just in the first round.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
Then they go to the neutral side. Bulls.

Speaker 1 (49:14):
Yeah, but I actually think that if Oregon loses, so
I actually would be more interested in Oregon to win
it if they lose to Penn State for a multitude
of reasons. The number one, I think it's good sometimes

(49:36):
for a team that's undefeated to lose before a tournament
and kind of refocuses you, and I think Landing would
be able to use that to his advantage. But two,
there's a chance the five seed is more valuable than
the one, which is crazy. But the way that the
bracket sets up is there's a chance that say Arizona

(50:01):
State gets in, and let's say Boise State wins the
beats you nl A Boise State would probably be the.

Speaker 2 (50:15):
Four, which is insane, right, you grew that.

Speaker 1 (50:20):
And Arizona State would be the twelve. So what would
happen is if Oregon is the one, yes, they get
a vibe, then they go on a neutral site and
play Ohio State, maybe Georgia if they lose to Texas
to Tennessee can play a really good team on a
neutral field. If Oregon loses to Penn State, they're be

(50:44):
the five seed. And the way that it could break
is you would host you know, Arizona State, and then
if you win, you would play Boise State. You play
the four on a neutral so instead of playing the
team so you just said, would have to win a
home game where Arizona State, who's down their top receiver

(51:05):
for the season, and then Texas.

Speaker 2 (51:09):
If Texas or Oregon lose, they'll probably be the five, right, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (51:15):
But I think if both lose, you would give the
nod to Oregon because they didn't lose during the regular season.
But if it's just one of them, then they'll Yeah,
they would get the five seed. And depending on how
it breaks, you know, I do think that there's a

(51:35):
chance that the five seed is more valuable than the one,
even though you're playing an extra game, which is just crazy.

Speaker 2 (51:45):
It could get hard, right if Clemson were to beat SMU,
SMU still gets in and they put them at the
twelve and you get SMU five twelve.

Speaker 1 (51:52):
Yeah, it's yeah, there's there's there's definitely variables here. But
I'm saying, like, if that's how it breaks, and like
you get your path to the Semis would be Arizona State,
Boise State. You can't really ask for anything better. Now,
in fairness, it's it's a it's another football game, and

(52:15):
we've seen this year that no one is really safe,
so you know, and then you could have injuries playing
an extra game. But I do think that there's in
you know, in a sense Oregon could benefit from a
loss like they haven't lost this year. They could focus
them and at the at the same time, Penn State
might end up being the one number one overall seed.

(52:37):
But then I could see them easily just losing in
their first game to you know, the Ohio State or
an SEC team totally on a neutral field. So and
I actually like Penn State a little bit.

Speaker 2 (52:47):
At three and a half, I know I want to talk.
I want to talk about these two games. I just
really quick on the brackets. Tell me where you stand.
I hear a lot of talking points about two things.
One I agree with. One I think is a little
more complicated. I think you should reseed like the NFL playoffs, right,
so you know, you shouldn't just be a bracket style

(53:08):
like the NCAA tournament, which my guess you might know
better than me, is why they did it this way,
because why wouldn't you have just copied the football of
you know, if the lower seed goes on, they play
the higher seed. Like, you know, if the seventh seed
beats the two seed in the NFL, they would play
the team on the by, right. Yet in this you're
stuck in the bracket, which I think we all most

(53:30):
people would agree should be the case moving forward. I
do think a lot of people that cover college football
and talk about college football say that the top four
teams should just be the four best teams instead of
the four you know, the conference winners the way they
are now. I do think that it's difficult because then
that kind of becomes subjective, right, And the one thing
you'd say about the NFL is there's not much subjectivity.

(53:53):
Obviously there's only one by now instead of two. But
the you know, the four teams that get home games, right,
one or four seeds do win their divisions, and obviously
not all the divisions on a yearly basis are the same.
Like the Eagles Division this year is much shittier than
I know. The NFC West has worst records, you know,
top to bottom. But it's like that's just harder on

(54:14):
a weekly basis, right, So it's like it's not apples
to apples, So I understand like that one's a little
tougher for me to just be like, well Georgia should
be the four seed or Tennessee, you know you could
cause that. Then we're just arguing like we would anyway,
like we used to. Where this one, I'm also of
a belief now I get it, Like I wonder if
there's financial lawsuits, like why do you have to include

(54:38):
a Power four team or you know, a not like
a Boise State, Like why do they have to be included?
They probably don't want to get sued, but like, in
what world are they even in the mix to get
a buy? That's insane And I'm a Fresno State, come
from Boise the whack? Like these are I like these schools,
but that's that's fucking outrageous that they are that even

(55:02):
Arizona State if they end up winning for them, like
I'm sorry their schedule. Playing just random big twelve teams
is harder than the Mountain West? Right? Do you agree
with that? On a weekly basis of playing Big twelve teams,
playing Kansas, playing k State, playing whoever you're playing b
y U is harder than playing New Mexico and San
Diego State. It just is.

Speaker 1 (55:22):
I completely agree. I see. But then here's the here's
the counter to that. Yeah, and the reason the included
group of five is just they're worried about loloscit as you.

Speaker 2 (55:32):
Said, throwing them throwing them a bone.

Speaker 1 (55:34):
Yeah. Yeah, But the thing is if you if you received,
then you're still bringing subjectivity into it because who gets
the one, who gets the two? Right, You're still just
determining that. So I could see just for my because
I get what you're saying with the subjectivity, But I

(55:56):
think that I would just we put out the rankings
anyway one through twelve, and I think that you know,
you have to include the group of the best group
of five to avoid your lawsuits. The conference champions get
an automatic bid, and I do like that because it
also cool.

Speaker 2 (56:16):
I'm cool with that too.

Speaker 1 (56:17):
Yeah, it keeps this conference championship weekend matters interesting and
whereas in the past it didn't really matter as much.
But I think that if you just ranked the one
to twelve, yeah, you might get the four and the five.
We got to argue that who's the sick, But as

(56:38):
far as the integrity of the bracket, you wouldn't get
it wrong. As far as like noisy as a bye,
and then we're saying the five could be better than
the one, like that's insane. It wouldn't it wouldn't be
the case. So yeah, I could see I could also
see this expanding. I also could see something changing with

(57:00):
like just like six fourteen or sixteen teams. So I
think eventually, like the Big Ten and the SEC are
going to say, like we want four spots each guaranteed
every year something like that.

Speaker 2 (57:11):
I'd argue they should get that now. I mean, look
at the television rating from the SEC wants the ESPN
bottom it's historic. And obviously the Big Ten what they
bring to the table, I mean that big noon game.
I know they bitch and moan about it and Kevin
Warren fucked them by signing that deal, but they do
get their own time slot in the morning, and it crushes, right.
I mean that's the game I typically watch.

Speaker 1 (57:33):
Yeah, So I mean if you expand it to say
sixteen teams, you could even say five, like five and
the Big ten five in the SEC agree that's where
we might be heading. And then you know you have
your group of five, and you know you have your
Big twelve, you have your ACC and then you have
three other spots for the best teams, the other the

(57:54):
three next best teams. I think that's eventually overhead it.
But something could change with conference championship weekend because and
it's always been like this, and the committee at least
came out and said that it could change. They said,
if SMU loses this weekend to Clemson, then they could
fall out and Alabama would then move in over SMU.

(58:15):
If if SMU wins and Alabama is getting in, because
Clemson would be out. But like, we're punishing SMU for
playing its conference championship game. Now, the argument is, well,
you have as there's risks there because there's a reward
because you are playing for a buy so you know
you're you're basically playing in a way your first round game.

(58:40):
But it is a little unfair in a sense. So yeah,
I don't know what's going to happen with conference championship games.
There's also not as much interest from a ticketing perspective
of a money from because of betting and just fans.
The TV money will always be there, but I mean
you look at the Big ten and get in price,

(59:01):
it's like fourteen dollars I believe right now, the Big
Ten champion But a lot of that is because, I mean,
Oregon's far away. But if you're like a Penn State
fan or an Oregon fan, you already know you're in
the Collegewell playoff. So you're really going to go make
a trip to Indy to go to the Big Ten Championship.
If you were planning on making a trip to go
to your team, you're probably gonna go to one of

(59:22):
the playoff games, which have much more meaning and you
already know that you're in there. But I don't know
the solution to that. But we've seen in the past
that there's you get punished. Teams have gotten punished. We
saw it last year Florida State. You know, even though
they won, Georgia lost. They were out TCU ten years ago,

(59:46):
Wisconsin five years ago, Auburn twenty seventeen, they lost the
SEC championship game. They were in the top four, they
dropped out Alabama and Georgia jumped in. They beat Alabama
and Georgia in the regular season. So we've seen in
the past. So I don't know if SMU is safe.
I think that they should be based on their season,

(01:00:07):
and it's not like Alabama had a stellar year, but
still it's the TV show brand News Matter. Alabama at
its peak is really good. They're probably gonna find their
way in.

Speaker 2 (01:00:19):
I agree. Okay, let's start with the Big Ten last year.
You know, it was a big advantage for Oregon. Obviously
they lost last year as a huge favorite, but that
game had huge ramifications Deboard landing Washington, Oregon the winner
was going to the playoffs while on the line, obviously
Washington had been beaten Oregon. But it was just an
easy travel it's cool travel to go to Vegas. This

(01:00:42):
is a pretty big disadvantage for the West Coast teams
just in general, you know, especially Oregon's of the four Washington, Oregon,
USC UCLA. If they ever make it to this game.
Oregon obviously well suited to keep going back to this game,
but it's just a long travel and while they are
a good traveling team like this is gonna be pretty
a tip for a massive game, essentially a Bowl game.

(01:01:02):
I just don't know how many of their fans are
going to be there, Like what you just talked about.
They're already prepared probably for the next game or whether
it's the home game if they lose, or after the
bye in Penn State. I saw the thing you saw
a twelve dollars get in price. I mean you can
sit like lower bowl Excellen seats for a couple hundred dollars.
I paid more triple at for the red River game.

(01:01:23):
Penn State is just a lot closer, and like you
could argue this is a bigger game for them, like
can they finally win a big game? I wonder if
this is going to be a pretty big home field
advantage for Penn State just geographically it's a lot more
people that go to that school and big ten people
are just going to be in that area. I listen,

(01:01:43):
I don't see how I see both sides, like how
are you gonna bet on James Franklin in a big game?
And it also feels like is there this value here?
You know they're almost plus one forty five? I look
this morning, you're getting over a field goal. Wouldn't you say?
They're kind of built as a similar teams, you know, defense,
high end front, seven, quarterback. You know, both guys can

(01:02:06):
have their moments different. One guy's tiny, one guy's big.
I do would imagine if you just went outside speed,
Oregon has better skill guys. You know, Landing gets talked
about really highly, and obviously he's an impressive guy. He's
he's a root for. He also lost some big games,
you know before this year, you know, against the dude
at Alabama who beat him three straight times as and

(01:02:28):
he was favored in multiple of those matchups. So it's
not let's not act like he's Kirby or Nick Saban
right now. Now, I'm not I take him over James Franklin.
But it is a much smaller sample size, is it not.

Speaker 1 (01:02:40):
Yeah, he's not like big game damn or anything.

Speaker 2 (01:02:43):
So I think he gets talked about like that though,
doesn't he Yes, I mean.

Speaker 1 (01:02:46):
Yeah he does. And it's I mean like, look, he
could have lost another one elier this year if if
Will Howard doesn't go, I mean that inexplicable ending against
Ohio State. Also, I mean you could have lost the
boys earlier this year. I think Oregon's really good. Do
I think that they're in a tier above everyone else? No,

(01:03:07):
I don't. I don't think anyone is there this year.
So and I think Penn State is in the upper echelon,
you know, of your top five, six seven teams. And
I don't think there's more than a field goal that
separates these teams. I think Oregon's better, but by just
two points or so. So if you're gonna give me

(01:03:29):
over a field goal, I took it. I hate it. Yes,
because it's big game, James, I've seen this story before,
but this isn't like truly a big game, right, Like
if this is the playoffs, might might be a different story.
I like in a way like Oregon, Like if this
isn't in a way, they could benefit from it. But

(01:03:50):
I think that they kind of need a loss in
a way. Now they're going to try here. They want
to win, but I do think that there's just a
little more like Penn State might be willing to go
a little bit more and I think that this game,
as you said, it might mean a little bit more
to them. And there is a team that hasn't been
ranked number one this century, which is crazy for Penn State.

(01:04:14):
So if they win this game, they have a shot
to be number one, and I think they would be
number Like so Georgia wins and Penn States, Penn State
is going to be the number one overall seed and
ranked number one. Where where I think this game comes
down to Because.

Speaker 2 (01:04:34):
The lower the lowest day would be is too right
if Texas were to win, Yeah, Texas Privy one YEP.

Speaker 1 (01:04:40):
Where I think this game comes down to is I
do think that you can run a bit on Oregon
and that is the key to this game. Ken Penn
State run the ball. They have two really good backs.
Then they have this, they have Tyler Warren is just
can do everything. A lot of them up a quarterback, Yeah,
tight end, wide receiver who run the ball. Singleton is
a bet. He's now, he's fully healthy. It's got that

(01:05:02):
burst back, which I think is huge here. I think
they can run it on Oregon. Like Oregon's underlying rush
defense metrics are not great. Where Oregon's defense is great
is they have great pass rushers uh Birch. There's they
have a ton of them, and they're deep, and then
their their secondary it's not like filled with NFL guys,

(01:05:22):
but there's no weaknesses. But their their d line get
pressure and they don't have the blitz. So if you're
in known passing downs, you're there, They're gonna be able
to get to you, and then you're not really gonna
find guys downfield, especially if you're Penn State because Penn
State does not have elite receivers. That is their biggest
weakness by far. It's just Wallace and that's it. And

(01:05:45):
they got to throw out. They got to get really
creative and Coldennick is one of the best offensive coordinators
in the country. They find creative ways to get the
ball to Warrant. But they need to be able to
run the ball here to stay out of obvious known
passing situations. They do that. I think they can move
the ball, and I mean, if you look look this
Oregon defense, I do think is a tad overrated. They've
played two really good offenses, two good offenses all year.

(01:06:09):
It was Boise State and Ohio State, both them me
at home. They won both by a field goal or less,
and they gave up thirty plus in both of those games.
Against Boys, they had two kick returns for a touchdown
to win that game. I know is way earlier in
the season. Oregon is improved, but I do think Penn
State will be able to run the ball and then
the other side of the ball.

Speaker 2 (01:06:31):
I do think.

Speaker 1 (01:06:32):
But the key position to watch if you're just watching
this game, not they get two into the weeds is
Penn State's right tackled. Probably their best offensive linement is out.
Got hurt a couple of weeks ago. His replacement he
has been hurt a couple times this year. So his
replacement in Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rouchie, he has played, but
it's not as good. Can he hold up especially on

(01:06:52):
passing downstors? Is that going to create the offensive line?
That's worth watching? The right tackle position. On the other
side of the ball, Penn State defense is really good.
Can't run on them at all, Like no one can
run on them. I mean, if you just compare these
run defenses, like look at the Illinois game. They both
they they played like six common opponents. Illinois ran thirty
two times for thirty four yards against Penn State. They
ran it thirty two times for one hundred and thirty

(01:07:13):
two yards against Oregon. Perdue ran it twenty eight for
eighty five against Penn State, forty for two toh eight.
I mean, it's a a nemic Perdue offense against Oregon.
I can go on and on down the list. Wisconsin
ran for one thirty against Oregon. Can't run on Penn State.
Dylan Gaber, you have the pressure. His numbers fall off
a cliff he doesn't handle press well. I think Penn

(01:07:34):
State can get some pressure here. So if Penn State
can run the ball, and they can stop the run,
then I think they're going to be right in this game.
It goes down to the wire. So I took the
points here. I think it'll be a super close game.
And I think a lot of those other ancillary factors
which put it over the top for me, as you mentioned,
like location, the meaning to the game that puts me

(01:07:56):
over the top. I think this thing will close a
field goal, so I I grab at three and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:08:02):
I'm with you. The way you just describe Penn State,
it's almost like they got to play like some of
those Jimmy Garoppolo forty nine er teams you know in
twenty nineteen in twenty twenty one to win playoff games,
mucky it up and just get into a fucking fistfight.
So you already think about who their opponents are moving forward.
You know, you see why they would struggle against teams
with their equal talent because if they fall down, they

(01:08:23):
can't come storming back. But if they're playing what Smu
I would imagine, throws the ball over the yard, like
that's gonna be it. They wouldn't want to play Penn State.
That that'd be They now physical where you know, that's
where I wonder, Like Georgia Texas. I understand Georgia has
had a weird season, but their high end is not
really disputable, is really good because that you know, you

(01:08:44):
talk about front seven with Penn State. I know you
were watching that Georgia Tech Georgia game. I mean number
three is a CJ. Allen. I mean he he looked
like and I mean he's not even the when I
close my eyes and think about their defensive he's not
the guy that comes up like you know, they're linebacker,
but they're talent up there. When they got to flip
a switch, it's like God, the speed of these human

(01:09:06):
beings is just on another level. And I just wonder.
You know, they sacked them seven times. They beat the
shit out of yours. Arch came in and looked like
a high school kid, and it's just a rough matchup.
I can't even I mean, I would imagine they pressured
them almost twenty times in that they were all over
the backfield. And this is the type game for Kirby.
It's like they view like you're not our equals. Guys.

(01:09:28):
It's one thing to play Alabama LSU like you're an SEC.
They don't view Texas. And this sounds like cheesy or whatever,
but Kirby talked about it when they beat their ass
in Austin, like we didn't come here for the fucking
Lamborghinis and the pictures, Like that's their message against this team.
And I just wonder if Georgia, Like I'm a little
surprised George as an underdog. Honestly, this is a home

(01:09:50):
game for them. It's not like Texas has been world beaters,
even though they've been rattling off wins. I mean, every
time I look up, it's like fourteen to ten against
Arkansas in the second half, It's like, Jesus, they don't
don't look that great.

Speaker 1 (01:10:00):
Now.

Speaker 2 (01:10:00):
That was an impressive win against your A and M squad,
who were just who you were almost on them making
the playoffs. They fucking held pretty close after losing that
first game. But I just like Georgia, I mean, I
just think, could we look back and go, that's just
a bad matchup for Texas.

Speaker 1 (01:10:16):
Yeah, I can see that those are all great points.
I did play some Texas initially, but I'm gonna be
looking to play Georgia. I think at some point during.

Speaker 2 (01:10:27):
The game, why not Georgia. Why is Georgia the underdog
in this game? After beating their ass in Austin.

Speaker 1 (01:10:32):
I mean, they've just been so inconsistent all year. Their defense,
like in the back end, it's just not the same
caliber Union. I mean that Texas game is their best
performance of the year by far. Two weeks ago, U
Mass ran all over them. I mean U Mass was
moving up and down the hill. Georgia Tech we saw
ran all over them. And their their offense too, is

(01:10:55):
their the weapons are just not there and they can't
run them all. This is getting in the weeds a lot.
But they're offensive line, they're all hurt. I you know,
if you had to really ask Kirby uh if he
could like forfeit this game, I think he would to

(01:11:16):
get the rest to heal up before the playoffs, you know,
if it didn't matter, and.

Speaker 2 (01:11:23):
Like he'd rather be in Tennessee shoes than having to
play this game.

Speaker 1 (01:11:27):
Yes, and they're all their offensive lineen are dealing with
injuries and they like they they were like just like
limping around like they so they can't run the ball
at all, and then that puts it all on back,
and then their offensives hurts you, and you're also the
pass section isn't great. But their weapons on the outside
are not the same calibers even I mean, look at

(01:11:47):
my look at them, but Conkey and Bowers are doing
in the NFL. You don't just replace the I know
Georgia gets spy stars, but you don't just replace those
two guys who who like mccaukee's playing like a number
one receiver, like one of the best receivers in the NFL.
Bowers might be the best tight end in the NFL
right now.

Speaker 2 (01:12:03):
I think you mean Tony Gonzalez and Wes Walker.

Speaker 1 (01:12:05):
Yeah, So they just don't have those two guys anymore,
and then they're in these known passing situations. And the
one constant all year has been the Texas defense. George's
offense every week and their defense at some extent comes out.
They come out so flat there. One exception was that

(01:12:25):
that just that spot when they were at Texas. I
played him in that game, but they would look bad
the week before. It was just like a classic Kirby spot.

Speaker 2 (01:12:35):
They looked like the eighty five Bears that game.

Speaker 1 (01:12:36):
It was incredible, but again and their offensive car well
that game again, so it's like they haven't really put
go back to the Alabama game. Their offense finally came
to like the Georgia Tech game last week. Georgia Tech's
that three defensive backs get hurt in the first half,
and then Georgie's offense came back with Georgia Tech was
going up and down the field against them, and then
George's offense couldn't do anything. And this isn't a good

(01:12:57):
Georgia Tech defense. Their script is really bad, like their
offensive script of Bobo this year. And then there's their
offensive line injuries. The weapons aren't as good, they can't
run the ball. So and then so I think Texas
in a way and it sarks script is usually pretty good.
Georgia threw a curveball defensively in that game they got
They were really aggressive. They're not usually that aggressive. They

(01:13:19):
can usually win with their defensive line in front, but
they were. Kirby was bringing it from the start. I
don't I don't think Texas is ready for it. I'm
curious to see what if he changes it up here.
But Texas will be more prepared. Texas just can't get.
You just can't get. They can't get behind, and that's
what happened in the Georgia game.

Speaker 2 (01:13:38):
And you need it.

Speaker 1 (01:13:39):
You kind of need a mobile quarterback if you're gonna
sit back and throw it against Georgia. So curious to
see if Texas just stays in this early. I think
they'll be okay, but Georgia will eventually make adjustments. So
I'll be looking to get it on Georgia live. I
just took Texas under three. I think they're gonna jump
out and get a lead. But there's problems with this
Georgia team, and there's injuries, and I think Texas look

(01:14:03):
they have revenge. They got embarrassed on their home field.
This means a lot to them. But to your points
are right. Kirby is a motivational mass there and he
could play that card too. But just if you remove
that Texas game, the Georgia results this year have been
just extremely underwhelming and inconsistent, Like they haven't put together

(01:14:27):
a full game of good offense and good defense all year,
you could argue. So yeah, and I think that the
strongest union of this game is the Texas defense and
the Texas offensive line is on another level than the
george offense on Now there's an injury at left tackle,

(01:14:47):
but kid who came in last week there was no
drop off at all. So yeah, I think Texas can
run the ball easier, and I think they have more speed.
Texas has more speed than Georgia at receiver and we're
playing on a fast track here. I think that could
end up playing as well. So I played Texas pre game,

(01:15:08):
but I'll be looking. I think they're gonna come out
get a lead Georgia. Every week Georgia goes down. Besides,
the Texas game does no matter who they're playing, Ubass
goes right down the field eighty yards. I didn't Athens.
It goes up seven to nothing. It's every week. So
I think they're gonna be down, and then I might
come in and look to get Georgia above a field
goal because we've seen them make adjustments. We've seen them

(01:15:29):
make halftime adjustments. So I think it'll be a good game.
But I did take Texas pregame under three.

Speaker 2 (01:15:34):
Yeah, and like as nil and everything changes. I just
pulled up Rivals because I saw a headline earlier today
that Georgia's number two in Texas, like going back between
four and five. And that's just on the high school kids. Obviously,
when it comes to transfer portal, we know Texas, Ohio State,
and even Georgia they're gonna get sweet guys. So just
get used to this game because it ain't going anywhere. Okay,

(01:16:02):
let's dive into the NFL this number. I think the
Bears are a better team than the forty nine ers
right now. Like you just can't overcome what the Niners
are dealing with. I mean Trent Williams, who is legitimately
hurt just his wife lost the second twin after already
losing an earlier twin in a pregnancy. Obviously, Charvarius Ward

(01:16:22):
just came back from losing a child. I mean, Bosa
has like had hurt his hip where he was playing
through weeks ago, and then he hurts the other one
and he's in way more pain and it's worse. And
Kyle said as of Wednesday, like yeah, it's hope, so
but I'm not God probably, so I think it's safe
to say, like it's very up in the air, and
why are you gonna push him through? All their running

(01:16:43):
backs now McCaffrey and Mason, Like, I just don't think
you can overcome the level of what they're trying to
overcome right now. And I you know, the Bears, while
their scores are close, they actually don't play well early
and they kind of come back when the team Lions
have a bunch of injuries, you know. So it's like
Caleb's playing, he's doing a lot of cool stuff in

(01:17:04):
the second half when they're down multiple scores, but in
the first half not all his fault. Coaching staff there
in shambles. But I just think they have more healthy players.
I just think the Niners are out of juice. So
the Bears plus four, I kind of like the Bears
just win this game outright, stucky.

Speaker 1 (01:17:22):
Yeah, I struggle with this one. I see your points
that if Trent Williams doesn't play then and it's awful,
what's just absolutely tragic.

Speaker 2 (01:17:32):
Well, even if this hadn't happened, he's been legitimately injured,
like limping around like his legs all fucked up.

Speaker 1 (01:17:37):
Yep, So he can't play then, and then you're down
your top two backs. Because the weakness of this Bears
d is there is air run dye. They lost Billings,
their defense attack on the Rundy's falling apart since But
like Grenda, he can hit some explosive runs, but he's
just not the same caliber zone runner than that you

(01:17:57):
know Mason and McCaffrey were and is pretty even fully
healthy right like you you see all those reports about him,
like in warm ups, he's just like are in practice?
I always see that. I forget the Beat Graham, the
Beat reporter. He just says like they're he's lofting the
ball like there's no and last week he wasn't. He

(01:18:17):
didn't really and there was there was snow, but he
he wasn't throwing the ball down field. The arm strength
is it there? Is he fully healthy? I don't think so?
But how how well? How healthy is he? I don't know.
They're they're just dealing with so much. But on the
other side, it's like part of me just says, this
is like, is this the bottom of the market, right?

(01:18:39):
Am I still selling? Like the forty nine ers only
three and a half four point favorites at home? Now
you have to account for all the injuries.

Speaker 2 (01:18:48):
This is guys that are playing, like Fred Warner admitted
two weeks.

Speaker 1 (01:18:51):
Heah, which makes sense because he's had a bad year.
He can't everyone's catching on him. Yeah, it's so I
can't lay it with the forty nine ers. I don't
blame you for taking the points here. This is probably
the this this is their season because of the division.
So do you get like just one last heroic effort?

(01:19:13):
And they have had a lot of stuff go wrong
for them, like just unlucky stuff, kicker of injuries, red
zone everything, So like, is this the week that you
know things finally go right? Because they're say the Cardinals
are favored against the Seahawks. If the Cardinals win, you
know they go to first place. Time the Seahawks at

(01:19:36):
seven and six, you could be one game back if
you win. So if they lose this then it's all
then Like the Bears, where are the Bears at? You
get a head coaching bump because that usually you want
to bet on teams the week after they fire their coach.
And I think in this case it warrants a look

(01:19:56):
because I don't think they like the eber Fluse and
so but where are they at? Mentally? So like because
they just lost three division games in heartbreaking fashion and
they're done now. So there's there's seasons over I mean,
it's not they're not going to try, which is where
are they at emotionally prepping for this game? Because now, look,

(01:20:18):
I mean they're they're four and eight in a division
where the third place team has nine wins. Your season's done,
but you have a new head coach. There might be
some juice there. So I could only take the points.
But there's just a lot going on here and any
of the see the final injury report, but it's a
mess for the four, which makes that Super Bowl loss

(01:20:39):
just so much more painful, getting so close. And then
and that was the year. Then this these these goddamn Chiefs,
that was the last year. The Ravens have always dealt
with injuries like every year for like the past six
years except last year. The forty nine ers always have

(01:21:00):
dealt with then injuries. Except for last year, they were
pretty they were relatively speaking, fairly healthy. Both got close,
forty nine Ers even closer and didn't get there. And
now you know, Ravens lose their defensive coordinator and their
defense has fallen off, some offensive linement and the forty
niners have to deal with all this. It just shows

(01:21:21):
you in the NFL, like once you get close you
can't just assume you're gonna be right back there the
next year. So yeah, I don't disagree with you, but
just a lot going on in this game.

Speaker 2 (01:21:32):
Well, let's let's talk about those other two NFC West games,
because they're pretty big. You know, the Bills, it kind
of feels like after watching them against the Niners they
got their swag. You look at the rest of the AFC.
I mean, the Chiefs have the weirdest eleven in one
season in the history of the league. That the Ravens
just feel like something's off this year. Obviously it feels

(01:21:54):
like it's their year. Now this is a long you know,
you're coming across the country playing the Rams, who I
think most people after last year would have thought, if
they're fully healthy, this is a team to be reckoned with.
Maybe not a true Super Bowl contender, but a ten
to eleven win team, a playoff team, a team that
could win a game in January. And since those wide

(01:22:16):
receivers have come back that they have just looked weird.
I mean, I had money on the Saints, so I
was pretty locked into Saints. Rams. They did not look
good for a large portion of that game, and they
kind of separated at the end and they're kind of
turned into a pumpkin. But some to me is just
off with this Rams team. Now it's just a little
letdown spot for the Bills. They still like when you

(01:22:37):
look at when you just put their schedule side by
side with the Chiefs, like if the Chiefs do slip up,
which is very possible multiple times. I mean the Bills
end with Patriots, Jets Patriots, So if they win one
of these next two games, I think there's a pretty
good chance that they go four and one down the stretch.
And yeah, so I think there's still a lot on

(01:23:00):
the line. Even McDermott talked about that, because anytime that
you clinch a division, how crazy is it? Looking back
to the Jets were favored to win the AFC East
like a week before kickoff, and now the Bills clinch
on December first, at home with five games to go.
So it's a weird spot like it's I look at there.
I just don't take the Rams as seriously anymore. But
there's a tough travel game for the Bills to be

(01:23:22):
a massive favorite on the roads. Pretty crazy it'd open
up at four and a half. I looked this morning
it was three and a half. I think I like
the Bills in this spot. It sums off of the
Rams for me. Stafford's off the offensive line. I don't know.

Speaker 1 (01:23:36):
Yeah, we'll see Stafford's dealing with that ankle injury. They
say he's gonna be okay, But that's something to worth
note worth noting. I do think the offense line is
gonna start to trend up there finally have all their
starters back. I think what you've seen over the past
few weeks is the offensive line continuity wasn't there. Over
like the last four weeks, they basically just added like
one starter back from injury. So like every week it's

(01:23:58):
a new lineup, and then they're on of building that continuity.
Last week was like the first time they had everyone back.
So I think that you'll start to see them trend
up up front. I just think this is the top
of the market on the Bills. It's a team. A
couple of weeks ago, they were laying this same price
in Indianapolis. Who and I have the Rams better than
the Colts with those When Flaccos start and they're laying

(01:24:20):
four on the road, you know they got four turnovers
in that game. Ended up winning by ten. So I
think this is the top of the market and it's
a tough spot just the first Their early is a
team is clinched division by the way in fifteen years,
but you clinched the division. You look so good against
the forty nine ers, but the forty nine erd is
the corpse of the forty nine ers team, like they've
had some teams that they've benefited from some opposing injuries

(01:24:42):
in recent weeks. You beat the Chiefs. Now you're going
on the road across the country after clinching the division,
flying high. More importantly, I think it's just the top
of the market from a value perspective. You got the
Lions on deck, like a big game, big marquee game
next week. So and this is the Rams season. Win
this game, you're right there.

Speaker 2 (01:25:02):
You know.

Speaker 1 (01:25:02):
You lose it, and the Seahawks win, you're because you're
you're just not getting a wild card in the NFC.

Speaker 2 (01:25:10):
It'd be a big week for Seattle if they beat Arizona,
the Rams lose, and if the Niners were to get upset,
it feel like Mike McDonald that's cruise into the playoffs,
wouldn't it.

Speaker 1 (01:25:18):
Yep? Yeah, So those are huge results across the NSCY West.
But I also like some matchup things here and look
the Bills. This reminds me like earlier in the year
the Bills. Everyone's like, Alan MVP, the Bills are unstoppable. Yeah,
I remember it's the NFL. Still, teams are never as
good or as bad as they look. And then the
Bills went on the road, they lost to Houston, they
got blown out by Baltimore. I do think Allen is

(01:25:40):
the MVP. I do think the Bills have a shot
at win the Super Bowl. But just those are signals
that we probably reached the top of the market on
the Bills. From a matchup perspective. Bills zone heavy defense
and that has really benefited from turnovers. I mean they're
plus seventeen turnover margin on the year, that's number one
the league. Opponents are ten of twenty four and fourth

(01:26:03):
down against them forty one percent, number one in the league.
So like they've gotten pretty lucky. And Alan, he does.
I think he has some picks coming. He has. People
last year were complaining about his picks. He had eighteen picks.
This year he only has five. His turnover worthy throw
rate is the same three percent, so he's just got
a little He was unlucky last year, a little luckier

(01:26:24):
this year. But you playing zone against Stafford, you want
to play man against him that with his receivers back,
they torch zone defenses and then they play zone. You
need to do that Verus Allen. Allen just crushes man
because he can run against it and he can buy times.

(01:26:45):
I think seventeen or eighteen of his twenty touchdowns this
year are against man coverage, not zoned. So I think
that there's some good matchup advantages here for the Rams.
It's a good spot. I think we're just now it's
come down to three, and I liked it a lot
better at four and a half, but I think that
this was actually actually a five earlier this week. I

(01:27:07):
think this is the spot to back the Rams at
home offensive line trending up some good matchup edges here.
They can get pressure and I think they can run
the ball on Buffalo a bit. So yeah, I'm back
in the Rams at home. But I can see the
case for the Bills.

Speaker 2 (01:27:24):
Seattle's owned Arizona over the pe carol Ara right in Arizona.
I think I saw stat that that was a matchup
that favored them on the road. Now, obviously new coaches,
new players. You were saying early in the season, just
wait for Seattle to get some of their players back.
It'll be, you know, a big kind of swing. One

(01:27:45):
thing's pretty clear, and I've been I say it every podcast,
is if he coached offense, he would be discussed like McVeigh,
like Kyle, like Lafleur, like Kevin O'Connell. But he's a
thirty eight year old defensive coach. But he's a fucking star.
Like this guy, like they didn't call him boy genius
in Baltimore for no reason, Like he's really really good. Yeah,

(01:28:06):
that's what I'm saying, Like, you know, that's why it's
my issue with Florio floating out. They trade John Harbon. Yeah,
they would trade John Harbon if Mike McDonald was still
on their staff and they could just elevate him to
the head coach. But he's gone and they're definitely not,
you know, elevating Monkin or was Zach Orr their defensive
coordinator who ship might get fired at the end of

(01:28:27):
the year. But this feels like Arizona's tough because you
never feel great betting with them or against them, and
they've done a very like valiant effort this season. Kyler
threw two bad picks, but even when they were winning games, like,
they don't have that much talent, especially on defense, like
you remove Buddha Baker, Like, look at what they're rolling

(01:28:48):
out now offensively when Kyler's right, Trade McBride, James Connor, Marvin, like,
they got good players, but this is a Seattle team
that is just if you're them, you're starting to smell
like blood in the water with the Rams, with the
Niners you control. Now playing Arizona kind of built.

Speaker 1 (01:29:04):
You know, when you beat them, you go three games
up essentially with a win here, you beat them already.

Speaker 2 (01:29:09):
I like Seattle plus two and a half in this game,
and this might just end any Arizona talk about the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (01:29:16):
Yeah, I I I literally just can't figure out Arizona.

Speaker 2 (01:29:21):
So I don't think they're good enough, you know, And
if Kyler isn't superhuman, if he screws up, they're screwed,
which he did against Minnesota.

Speaker 1 (01:29:30):
Yeah, and he did against Seattle. I mean Seattle shut
them down. I did play some under in this game.
I think that the Arizona defense. You're right, there's no
talent here, but they're like if you look at advanced metrics,
they're above league average against the run and against the
pass and overall, I don't know how they played well.
They're and they're well schemed. They don't give up explosive plays.

(01:29:50):
They make you move the ball down the field and
eventually you know they make a play or you make
a mistake. And uh yeah, I mean they're running some
like just really cool quarter stuff and they're so I
love the way that their scheme and I can't imagine
what that defense would look like if it had talent.

(01:30:12):
And yeah, I mean i've been I've always been shooting
McDonald's horn. And like the way that you really tell
the impact of a coach is not just what they're
doing with a team, because a lot of some of
that as players other guys is that, but what happens
when to the team where they left and the Ravens
defense is is just a mess right now. And they

(01:30:35):
Seattle's defense had this downswing and it was because they
were all hurt, like they had no defensive lineman. McDonald
finally like reshuffled his linebacker room, released some guys, traded
for some guys. He got his linebacker room to where
he wants it. The secondary was all hurt. Now they're
all back fully healthy. So now this defense is fully

(01:30:56):
healthy and they're rolling. I mean they held Arizona to
six points two weeks ago. Last week, I mean the Jets.

Speaker 2 (01:31:08):
One of the touchdowns was a kickoff return.

Speaker 1 (01:31:10):
Yeah right, and then they also muffed a kickoff. They
muffed two kickoffs in the game. Chanal just the disaster
special teams, but I mean the Jets a two hundred
and fifty totally yards for four point two yards per play.
They did did nothing in that game. So this defense
is trending way up. I think it's undervalued in the market.

(01:31:34):
And I think the Arizona defense continues to be undervalued
because people are just looking at the talent. So I
think second divisional game too well schemed defenses. I think
they'll make some good adjustments, so I think this will
be lower scoring, like a lot on the line. I
don't mind taking the points here because I think Seattle

(01:31:55):
is the better overall team, and I do think the
one thing that worries me about the under The first
game was played outdoors. There was some weather indoors. This
It's funny because the Seattle defense is really good, but
I think that they would their defense would be good,
fully healthy anywhere. The Seattle offense they can't really run

(01:32:18):
the ball. They don't have like a complimentary offense to
you know, like playing outdoors and being a really good
defensive team. Their offense and Gino spent in particular, when
they're indoors, they look so much better and they have
like speed at receiver and they need to throw the ball.
They can't really run it. Like if you look this.

Speaker 2 (01:32:34):
Year, they you know when they went to on Monday night.

Speaker 1 (01:32:38):
Yeah, yeah, they had like five hundred yards. That was
like the best performance against Detroit's defense all year when
they were healthy. They went to Atlanta and destroyed them.
They put up like their offense looked unstoppable. So yeah,
they're when they've gone outdoors, when they've gone indoors, and
they're like they have they can throw the ball around

(01:32:59):
and it's not like Arizona gets a ton of pressure.
That's the one thing that words me. So that could
work in your favorite too. So I don't mind taking
the points I did to take some under Well.

Speaker 2 (01:33:05):
You think there'll be a you know, if we look ahead.
Let's just say they win the division, they'd be hosting
a playoff game. More than likely they would be the
three seed, hosting either probably green Bay, Minnesota potentially. I mean,
are they are they an underdog in that game or
is that a pick them? I know it's a long
way to look ahead. Do we like them in a

(01:33:26):
little upset spot there? Or like you said, the rain
starts coming down because they would have an awesome crowd
and we have seen them in a spot where they're
not viewed going to win that game early in the
Pete Carroll era with the Marshawn Lynch run against the
Saints when they were like seven to nine and won
the division. That's just something you know, that could get

(01:33:47):
weird there. That'd be a weird spot to go if
you're like a Green Bay, like a eleven twelve win team,
you're the six seed or Minnesota and you got to
go on the road to Seattle. That's tough.

Speaker 1 (01:33:56):
Spot three may be favored, but small, and I mean
I would it would probably end up being like green
Bay minus two and a half or something. But Seattle
has a chance to close that gap. So I mean
green Bay could continue to ascend, but Seattle could keep

(01:34:16):
getting better power rating wise. I think the market as
it now has it at like two and a half,
three would be Green Bay. I would be really interested
in getting Seattle at three. Yeah, they're going to be
a really intriguing home team, but they could also go
like if they have to go to Minnesota, if they

(01:34:39):
have to go to Detroit, they can hang if they're
you know, they they have talent, have receiver Gino plays
much better indoors. And now their defense is healthy. The
remember when they played Detroit, it was a game where
their defense was decimated by injuries. That's when it was
the bad version of the defense. So they obviously would

(01:35:03):
be let's see and as of now they'd probably be
like touchdown plus underdogs in Detroit if Detroit's fully healthy.
You remember now Detroit is going through with Seattle.

Speaker 2 (01:35:15):
We're doing this before the Thursday night game. I think
they're in trouble just the way I mean they Jamal
Adams tells you everything you need to know.

Speaker 1 (01:35:20):
By guy thirteen fourteen defenders on I are.

Speaker 2 (01:35:23):
I think they Adams to play them a defensive line.

Speaker 1 (01:35:26):
Yeah, blitz, blitz, That's that's always good for so yeah,
that the Seattle is gonna be an interesting team if
they continue turning out and then you know their defensive
game plan is going to be really good. Now a
lot can change you just look at the injury situation
across the league. But uh, yeah, the NFC playoffs is
is going to be fun. And you have these teams

(01:35:49):
that aren't aren't gonna win the NFC North and it's
they're gonna have to go on the road and they're
gonna have to Seattle. It's gonna have to.

Speaker 2 (01:36:02):
Say, okay, we ended on this the fighting Jim Harbass
who are cruising to the playoffs. Who would have thought that.
I'm so mad at myself. I was like one of
my favorite bets of the year as a future and
I got talked out of it just because everyone kept
calling me an idiot. They don't have enough talent this
and that. It's like here, they are probably win eleven games.

(01:36:25):
This is a spot the Chiefs. Clearly, it's just a
weird season, right They just every game kind of looks
the same, whether they're playing the Raiders, the Panthers, or
a playoff team. My first reaction is Chargers plus four. Now,
it's not exactly like the Chargers are world beaters. I
mean they struggled to get like two hundred yards offense

(01:36:49):
against Atlanta in a dome, now.

Speaker 1 (01:36:52):
First down in the second half.

Speaker 2 (01:36:54):
To their defense, their defense is good. I mean they
got guys, you know, fifth round picks picking off Cousins
and Derwin making plays. And there's a little different animal
in Kansas City. That place is gonna be rocking. So
my first inclination is Chargers, just take them plus the points.
It almost feels like too easy, but like every Chiefs

(01:37:14):
game looks the exact same, So I guess that's my
first reaction, Chargers plus the points. But don't feel great
about it. It feels like a tramp.

Speaker 1 (01:37:22):
I took the Chiefs here. I can't believe I did.
I can't believe I'm saying. I think this is the
bottom of the market. On the Chiefs. They are eleven
and one, but from a betting perspective, they haven't covered
in six straight games, and I like, they were laying
seven in LA and they won by seven. Now you're

(01:37:43):
laying three and a half four at home.

Speaker 2 (01:37:45):
Do you think that's a huge reason why people talk
shit about him? Like if this is when we were kids,
like nineteen ninety six and you're just eleven and one,
people are like, oh, this seems excellent. But now gambling
we talk about so much, the numbers, We talk about
the spread so much, like they don't even come close
to That's why people act like they're a seven win team.

Speaker 1 (01:38:03):
Yeah, it could be part of it, for sure. Get
gambling is drives a lot more of the casual general.

Speaker 2 (01:38:12):
I feel like they would have got more respect for
most of my life when you're just eleven and one,
regardless how you win, especially when you're the two time
defending champ. Right, it's not like you're just a little
engine that could This team that's won.

Speaker 1 (01:38:25):
Bag dec I mean diconomics respect they were getting and
how how much love they were getting last sex they
kept winning as underdogs in the playoffs and covering. Sure
it was a different story, but the Charter has been
pretty fortunate too, like I mean, and they've only beaten
one team with a winning record was the Broncos all
year last year. Last week I had the Falcons plus
two and a half, probably the worst NFL loss I've

(01:38:47):
ever had. But then I had the Browns plus six
and a half On Monday night. That was probably even worse.
But the Falcons, I mean they missed a thirty yard
field goal indoors they out gain. I did a ninety
eight percent postgame win expectancy that game. The Cousins just
throws four inexplicable picks a pick six. They don't get
multiple fourth downs. The Charges get a two point conversion
to cover. They know thirteen yards in the second half. Anyway,

(01:39:10):
you could tell I'm not bitter. But here's what's going
on here. I like the matchup for the Chiefs because one,
they play a lot of man coverage on defense. Their
secondary has not been the same since the injury to Watson.
Their pass defense has gotten worse. The charters are not
the team that has the receivers that are going to
take advantage of that, especially if mccaukee can't play and

(01:39:31):
he's hurt. He was their entire offense last week. I
think it's seventy five percent of their yards he's hurt.
I don't know if he's going to play. If he can't.
He's the only guy on their entire team that can
beat man coverage. No one else can. I don't know
how they moved them ball. It happened last week against
the Falcons and he got hurt and they couldn't move
it anymore. And that's the Falcons defense. They also can't

(01:39:54):
run the ball anymore because they lost Dobbins. They couldn't
run against the Falcons last week. I think they'd averaged
two yards per carry last week. They can't run the
ball anymore because he lost Dobbins. And now if you
lose McConkey, how are removing the ball? On the other side,
they play a lot of zone on defense. They sit
back in their zone. I don't think that's a good
idea against Mahomes especially, and I think this is the

(01:40:15):
key to the game, especially if DJ Humphreys would think
he's going to start a left tackle starts to left tackle.
That has ruined the left tackle has ruined the Chiefs
offense this year. They cannot block anybody. Whoever lines up
there is getting immediate pressure. From the last week against
the Raiders, they had to kick their guard out, their

(01:40:36):
starting guard out to left tackle in the middle of
the game. So Humphreys, I think it's going to be
a massive upgrade. I think he slated the start. Reports
out of camp Barole very good, so I think the
Chiefs offense will look better. So I think that this
is you know, you have McConkie injury, the dobbins injury,
and then look, this Chargers offense was already limited. The

(01:40:58):
talent isn't great. Herbert's awesome. You know, your tackles are
really good. You had Dobbins mcconkeee looks like a hit,
but they're out, or and mccauckey's hurt. Dobbins is out.
The receivers aren't great. A lot of it was like scheme,
and I think the league is like starting to pick
up on a lot of their tendencies. There's only as
the season progresses, there's only so much you can do

(01:41:20):
with that receiving talent. So I think this is a
good matchup for the Chiefs. This is like the bottom,
very bottom the market on them, like covering, Like I'm
not asking them to cover seven seven and a half
nineteen fourteen. So yeah, I.

Speaker 2 (01:41:37):
Just went twenty three to fifteen or something. You know, Yeah,
who's better right now? The Charger are the Broncos kind
of the same team? You have Chargers more, Yeah, so
you plan on betting against the Broncos in the first round.

Speaker 1 (01:41:52):
Yeah, depending on the price. I mean the Broncos defense
is good. I feel like a big underdog. I mean
the Chargers are when.

Speaker 2 (01:42:01):
Haven't really beat anybody either, right, Neither of these teams
have great wins.

Speaker 1 (01:42:04):
The Broca they should have just lost to the the Browns.
The Broncos to me are a like dead average team
and the Chargers when healthy are borderline top ten team.
So the difference between them two two and a half points.

(01:42:29):
You're upside with the Chargers is bigger too because of
Herbert Nicks has played well, but he's he needs to
be like put in certain situations, you can't if you
can't be, you can't be under pressure. They need to
be able to run the ball. But the charters have
to get healthy because if they need a healthy mcconfee,

(01:42:50):
because the wide receiver room without him is bad, and
they need to get Dobbins back. Is Dobbins and he
comes back, it's going to be the same. Like he
was looking. He's amazing. He looked as good as he
did coming off all the injuries that he had. But
their run beat their run offense without him is bad,
and without if there's no mconkee, their offense is pretty limited,
but I don't think neither team has Super Bowl upside

(01:43:14):
this year. Anything can happen in one football game, but
I don't think either could go through the AFC playoffs,
especially not with home field advantage.

Speaker 2 (01:43:28):
Well, Stuckey, I appreciate you, and I'm I'm actually that
the charge of Chiefs games. That's pretty good. I mean
night games, Kansas City getting cold. Jim Harbaugh on the sideline.

Speaker 1 (01:43:37):
This is the Cowboys again on Prime Time?

Speaker 2 (01:43:42):
Who's it's Cowboys?

Speaker 1 (01:43:43):
Who Bengals? Oh my god, they scheduled this Simpson's alternate cast.
Alternate broadcast, That's why they couldn't get out right, and
they pre recorded like all this stuff, so it's unbelievable.
I mean, I am sick and tired of watching the
Cowboys and not Island spots like three times in unless
three weeks already.

Speaker 2 (01:44:01):
Yeah, it's a joke. Well, have a good week in
college football. It'd be exciting on Saturday. So I will
talk to you next week when we'll know the bracket
and we'll rock and roll from there.

Speaker 1 (01:44:12):
Absolutely, have a go on, brother, enjoy your week. I
see you next week. The volume

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3 & Out - TNF Reaction, Massive win for the Lions, Belichick to UNC?

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