The Favorites - NFL Week 16 Betting Preview

With the holiday season in full swing, Action Network's merry duo of NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter hitch up their gambling sleighs for NFL Week 16. Together they discuss every other game on the board, including a huge spread in frigid Buffalo, a bounce back spot for the injured Lions, and the Dallas Cowboys returning to form.

Plus, we get a recap of Week 15 in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

And be sure to keep your ears peeled for our Simon Says and Executive Decision picks of the week! #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today is
our week sixteen episode, the Tuesday episode where we break
down the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss
our exec decision and our Simon says, start to narrow
down the options for our fave fives to put in

(00:30):
the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em
contest boy. Last week, Blue Simon and I got a
little testy with each other on Sunday night because we
were zero to four heading into the Sunday night game.
The Green Bay Packers saved our week, kept us from
an overur They did try their best to let the

(00:52):
Seahawks creep back into it in the second half. We
turn the page, we fire away, We move on. I
was pumped to start making some bets, start to see
some opportunities this morning when I was finishing my research
live from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as
always by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre, and

(01:13):
my BFF Professional Better. So I'm in Hunter.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
Hello, So I'm in hello chat. How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (01:20):
Dude? You got to keep a good attitude when all
this is going on. And it helps when we're coming
out of our live event with listeners this past Thursday,
and I got to say, I love our listen listeners.
They are like they are nice, they are kind, they
are funny, They got great attitudes. They have the right perspective.

(01:44):
Everybody who visited with us at the event at the
Wicked Wolf in Philly, we had, you know, hundreds of
people come. They just have great attitudes and they're just
happy to be listening to the show. A lot of
them aren't even like Betters, They just sort of enjoy
hearing the football talk. I want to thank I'm sure

(02:04):
you do too. The hundreds of people who showed up
this past Thursday. Listeners came from Cleveland, from Dallas, DC,
New York shout out Staten Island, former home of my
wife and mother in law. We had retirees from Delaware County.
We had people come on their date nights. More than

(02:25):
one couple I met came on a date night. In
the words of Matt Mitchell, we also had loads of
Philly scumbags. I truly love Philly and the people that
are great town. Even my older son showed up family
acknowledgment that I have a podcast. I don't know if
you have any favorite memories other than the Simon Hunter

(02:49):
family showing up in force as they always do for
our live events.

Speaker 3 (02:56):
Yeah, you tell all my family there's gonna be free
drink Chad, They're going to be there. Definitely showed up
big time.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Yeah, to me, it's just great where especially.

Speaker 3 (03:05):
Nowadays that I don't know about you, but as someone
that is getting older and my friends are all having kids,
you don't get to go out and hang out with
people the same kind of mindset of just be that
love football and love sports betting. So we all get
together with people just the same kind of mindset we have.
It's just a good time because like it's just it's
only other place I get that feeling is at the
book and sometimes they're not always the nicest people at

(03:26):
those sports books.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
So on the other.

Speaker 3 (03:28):
Flip side, like you just said, all our fans really friendly,
really fun watching the game with them, making bets with them,
And yeah, I honestly can't wait till the next time
we do all these love events just because you know
it's it's fun sweating bets with people, especially when people
are on the same side as you.

Speaker 2 (03:44):
So yeah, I really enjoyed it.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
We actually don't have as much as Matt Mitchell likes
to say, we don't have a ton of scumbag listeners
like we have so many people who are like married,
people with kids, with families, who like to bet and
hang out. It's so much fun. It's so much fun
to hang out with them. You were giving away cash
to people who could answer in naane podcast trivia questions.

(04:09):
Matt Mitchell did a great job putting together sort of
a questionnaire highlighting elements of the podcast, asking fun questions
like who could I beat up? Who is the biggest
villain in Philly? What jobs would Simon have been doing
if he wasn't doing this. We're going to share a

(04:29):
lot of those when we get into future episodes in
the off season, so people can hear what their podcast
fellow podcast listeners are saying when there isn't football to discuss.
But great night, great time, Glad for everyone that showed up,
Glad to see everybody, and look forward to doing it again.
We're going to do another one in the spring as
a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet

(04:51):
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
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(05:12):
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hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. So like, look,

(05:33):
it's no secret we've been running bad for a lot
of the year. It's been a tough year. How about this, though, simon,
If we think things have gone badly for us, and
this past Sunday was epic meltdowns of Jonathan Taylor dropping
the ball before the end zone, and Najie Harris dropping

(05:55):
a lateral, and god knows what else. Da Montgomery injured
his knee for the Detroit Lions. He is done for
the year. His rushing total for the year was seven
hundred seventy five zero point five rushing yards. As of Sunday,

(06:18):
his total rushing yards seven hundred and seventy five. That
is either a great win for all the underbetters, but
the people who will remember it and tell stories about
it and discuss it at cocktail parties. Argimated people who

(06:38):
bet the over seven to seventy five and a half.
Great tweet from Action Network. Can you imagine that's that's
a gut punch Simon.

Speaker 2 (06:47):
Yeah, that's pretty sick me.

Speaker 3 (06:48):
But it's also a testament to the sports books who
just play the numbers in their computer right where it's
like that's that's the average they got back and mathematically
it's profitable. And we always talk about it, if you just
bet unders on all these season long props, it's a winner.
And that's just a classic case of that where they
laid a smart number and they got lucky.

Speaker 1 (07:09):
Well, we're going to get some luck this week, because
that's how we roll. We bring optimism to every single week.
Week sixteen, we talked about the Thursday game the Broncos
at the Chargers. The Chargers are three point favorites. I
think money is starting to come in on the Broncos
because we're seeing the juice a little bit in their
favor on this number, so it could go to two

(07:31):
and a half quickly. That was our first lean. I
think part of this to me, you tell me was
about justin Herbert sort of looking hobbled on Sunday, especially
in the second half.

Speaker 3 (07:45):
Yeah, and we just talked about really about that in
the number, right, like that just felt like once again,
too much respect to this Chargers team for a team
that I don't know how deserving they are of that respect.

Speaker 2 (07:56):
Right. A lot of what.

Speaker 3 (07:56):
They did earlier in the season, we get it. I
was really impressive start the season for this Chargers team.
But the injuries, just like Detroit, are going to catch
up to these teams, right, Like we've seen that time
with time again, when we're losing key players at key.

Speaker 2 (08:09):
Positions, it matters.

Speaker 3 (08:11):
And it's another spot too where I think professionals, like
I talked to you they like the Chargers here, it
was kind of like they think bon Nicks is hit
in that rookie wall, and I feel like it's the
other way where it's like, isn't this a nice spot
to bet on bone Knicks after a terrible start, Like
isn't this where he should do well on a short week?
Just get it out of his system? And again, it's

(08:33):
it's such a key number that it was at three,
So not surprising at all that it's come down to two
and a half, especially as the week goes along here,
Like we talked about, it's a short week, Chargers have
more injuries, They seem more banged up. You know, I
don't know where you're at of this one, but it's like,
if you can get the three, grab the three, because
it's it's a game.

Speaker 2 (08:49):
I'm not trying to.

Speaker 3 (08:49):
Bet if I don't have to, but if I'm taking
a good number here, it's definitely can be a three
on Denver.

Speaker 1 (08:54):
Yeah, it just matchup wise. There's been a lot of
talk about the Chargers defense and how good they've been,
but since we nine twenty eighth in success rate, they
were third first eight weeks. So now you've got a
Broncos interior pass rush where they got multiple players in
the top thirty of PFF's interior defensive linemen rankings for

(09:20):
pass rush, and the Chargers interior O line does not
have anybody that is ranking as high. So there's a
little bit of an edge there for Denver. So yeah,
if we have the three, we're gonna take the three.
We're gonna go with the go with the Broncos. Breaking
news out of Kansas City, Houston and Kansas City Kansas City.

(09:45):
As we went on air, the last time I was
able to check, Kansas City was a two point dog.
But as we were talking about this, literally before we
hit record for the show and went live, Andy Reid
was saying that Patrick Mahomes will have his first test today.

(10:07):
He'll do some work today, They'll see how it goes.
That will be the determinant in terms of indications about
how we can do on Sunday. He also said Hollywood
Brown has a chance to play Simon. You were saying,
as some other books, this line had already moved to
Kansas City minus one. I have not been able to
check BET three sixty five. Let me see if I

(10:27):
can get an update here and.

Speaker 3 (10:29):
They're probably plus one right now for the Chiefs. That's
I think most American books are out right now.

Speaker 2 (10:34):
Okay, so yeah, plus one plus one and a half Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (10:37):
Yep, yep, you're exactly right. So it's coming down off
of that news. I bet at at two and a
half yesterday. Schefter was reporting yesterday that the Chiefs don't
think it's as bad as they were first concerned about.
So I immediately better at two and a half. That's
the ballgame, really, like, are you're getting the best of

(10:58):
the number you should probably in the Chiefs right now.
Maybe you're gonna make this as Simon says, I don't know,
but feels like that's what we should be doing.

Speaker 3 (11:07):
I would have it was still two and a half
because even even at two and a half, if it
was Carson Wentz, I don't hate that number honestly. For
this Chiefs team against a Houston team right on a
short week at home, it's like a lot of these
advantages we auto Athley are going to get to this
Chiefs team just because something I think everyone can agree
something just seems off about that Houston team. And you know,

(11:27):
the books opened this at three and a half and
it just got hammered even when everyone thought it was
gonna be Carson Wentz. So they moved at two and
a half. Like you just said, it's sat there for
a good day and a half, and like I've been betting,
I'm sure you have.

Speaker 2 (11:39):
Yeah, now that.

Speaker 3 (11:40):
It's moved, I would still bet if you haven't, Like,
if you liked the chief side, why not again, If
you're scared you missed the number, go ahead, throw it
in a teaser. Then you can get this up to
seven and a half right now, A lot of books
and a six point teaser. Really, Like, that's that's a
good number. If you want to get real weird with it,
pair it with the Ravens if you believe in them
to win outright against Pittsburgh the next that night game.

(12:03):
So like, there's ways you can attack this if you
did miss the value. But I think there's still value here.
If it is Mahomes, this gets up to what Chad
minus three hugely, I mean minus three Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (12:14):
So to me, there's still have his value there. Even
if Mahomes is banged up.

Speaker 3 (12:18):
We've seen him play on play on injuries before and
it's still then winning by a field goal. So to me,
as long as it stays at three or under, I'm
still gonna go chiefs.

Speaker 2 (12:27):
And yeah, it stinks.

Speaker 3 (12:29):
Like we talked before the hop on the show, it
was it moved right before he got on. It's like
I was looking forward to talking about two and a
half again, just because again, if it is Wentz, I
have no issue. If you're sitting on a two and
a half ticket with Wentz, I think that's still a
solid number. And on the flip side, there's no reason
to chase this number for you now. Now you can
be patient that if it is Wentst on Friday, this
goes back up. You might even get back above three.

(12:50):
It might get the plus three chiefs plus three and
a half chiefs. So definitely a number where if you
missed it, you like what me and chat are saying,
you do think Mahomes toughs it out, grab it now.
If you're on the flip side and you want to
be on Houston, I would just keep being patient here
like I could. I could see this keep going down
as the rumors keep swirling about my home's health.

Speaker 1 (13:09):
Yeah, it's it's interesting that you mentioned the Texans. They
are still not a very good team. Offensively. And you know,
I was listening to Aikman last night, Prey Aikman, and
they were talking about coaches and who could potentially coach
the Bears, and you know, they mentioned Ben Johnson, they

(13:31):
mentioned Cliff Kingsbury, they mentioned Bobby Slowick from the Texans.
And there's clearly something that defenses have figured out when
they're defending CJ. Stroud. I don't know if you've seen
it in all the film study that you do, but
they are just defending him differently, and maybe they're playing
safeties deeper. I don't know, but this team even against

(13:56):
the Dolphins, and I really liked the Dolphins last week,
and we didn't put him in the contest. I didn't
bet him at three because it's something about it made
me nervous. But this Texans offense man Joe Mixon just
had had just twenty three yards rushing last weekend, Nico
Collins just seventeen yards receiving. The Texans won that game
because Tua turned it over three times. CJ was sacked

(14:20):
four times. They only had three point six yards per play,
only twelve first downs. And this Chiefs defense is significantly
better than the Dolphins defense. And defenses have been confusing CJ. Stroud,
especially on third downs all season. Like, I don't know
what you're seeing in whatever you're looking at, what is

(14:41):
going on with this Texans team.

Speaker 3 (14:44):
Yeah, I would say the biggest thing from CJ is
he had a lot of confidence pushing the ball downfield
last year and that's been gone because of all the
hits he's taken from behind that bad offensive line. Like
you can see him either getting rid of the ball
early or just taking the easy checkdowns rather than trying
to make stuff happen.

Speaker 2 (15:00):
Did last year.

Speaker 3 (15:00):
So that's I mean, again, that's the human part of it, right,
Like we talked earlier the year Jade Daniels, you could
just tell Jane Dames was playing in a way that
you could tell he had never been hit in the
NFL before, and you saw immediately shifting that once he
did get hurt and hurt his ribs.

Speaker 2 (15:13):
Right, he's played.

Speaker 3 (15:14):
Differently since that injury all season. So I think this
am with CJ. It just seems like he's someone that
was playing free last year and this year he's taking
a lot of hits. He's overthinking, and you're right, like
we've talked about it, we don't like Ben Houston as
a favorite. This is another spot there's still a favorite
right now, so it's it's pretty easy pick right now
for us.

Speaker 2 (15:30):
With the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (15:31):
This is how sad my wife is in the shower
this morning. After I did my very aggressive, high intensity
thirty minutes of rowing, I was thinking to myself, if
Mahomes plays, I've got the Chiefs at two and a half,
I bet I'll be able to get the Texans at
plus three.

Speaker 2 (15:52):
That's not sad, that's that's the best.

Speaker 1 (15:54):
That then I'm just middle.

Speaker 2 (15:55):
I live for a middle.

Speaker 1 (15:56):
Yeah, with Milman the Middler what they call me. Pittsburgh,
get Baltimore. Baltimore's a six point favorite. This numbers come down.
Neither of us were scared off by the Steelers lost
to the Eagles on Sunday to not bet them here.
I actually waited until Monday afternoon to get the six
and a half. As soon as I saw Tomlin say

(16:18):
he was optimistic about TJ. Watt more money than tickets
on the Steelers. So you know it's not a pro
joe split, but there is a higher percentage of dollars
coming in on the Steelers. Also, some optimism George Pickens
may play after missing the past couple of weeks. Tomlin

(16:38):
said they're going to monitor him this week, which is
more than he said last week going into the Ravens.
Have you seen anything to make you not want to
play this?

Speaker 3 (16:49):
No, And honestly, the it was pretty funny, Like we
did our Sunday show and I let off with just
doing in a row the Thursday to Saturday games and
we basically just said each one and we'd like the dog.
Each summer has come down so pretty shocking where the
favorites have been so good that these dogs.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
Have moved the other way.

Speaker 3 (17:05):
And yeah, our simple view of this Pittsburgh number is
like it's too big, especially in a matchup where they've
always played really well against Lamar. It's one of the
few teams that knows how to make him kind of
a just terrible day. For some reason, he's uncomfortab when
he plays against Pittsburgh and he turns to struggle.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
Obviously, the key to that is what you just talked about, TJ. Watt, Like,
I am one hundred percent with you on that one.
If he is.

Speaker 3 (17:30):
A game time decision, whatever it may be, and we
could put this one and I wouldn't put it in
if that's what we're playing with, Like, if we have
to lock this in, I wouldn't risk it knowing that
we're betting a Pittsburgh team that might be down their
number one d end and their number one receiver, Like
that is a lot to overcome. And yeah, amazing staff
from Evan lamar oh and five against the spread versus Pittsburgh.

(17:52):
So me and Chad, I mean, we we got lazy
with us when we always just bet Pittsburgh in this spot.
It feels like the same here, Like six and a
half was a great number. You can still find there's
one really public book out there still sit on six
and a half.

Speaker 2 (18:04):
But by it, why not take it?

Speaker 3 (18:06):
And if you do get scared off by or you
can try to do what I just try to try
to middle it. Take the teaser Ravens, tease up the
Chiefs right now, like there's there is value here to
this middle because it does feel like the kind of
game where the Ravens are gonna win, but they'll win
maybe by justin Tuckerfield will like it'll come down to
the last position. That's just how these two teams play.

(18:28):
It's just again we love to bet the dog, especially
Tomlin in this spot. We expect them to bounce back
after that embarrassing loss to the Eagles team. So yeah, Chat,
it's it's a game I love. But if there's no TJ.
I don't think we'd put in our contest.

Speaker 1 (18:41):
Sun and Light last week with Cleveland and Kansas City
where you said very specifically, you said, very specifically, avoid it.
It's gross, and yet somehow I snuck it in. I'm
putting this one only if TJ Watt playing, which I agree,

(19:01):
and if he's not, I might try to buy out
of it.

Speaker 2 (19:04):
Well, I just think they'll screw us on the number.
If he's not playing.

Speaker 3 (19:07):
I bet you it goes back to the six and
a half. I could easily see this being five and
a half in contest.

Speaker 1 (19:12):
Yeah, and it was a clunker like the Steelers. They
had five minutes possession in the first half, right, and
there was going to be inflation on this game when
they played as badly as they did against the Eagles,
and Lamar was thrown five touchdowns against the Giants. And

(19:33):
I will say this about the Steelers, they were terrible,
if not four that Najie Harris dropped lateral. They were
down twenty to thirteen. They may have been tied or
down just four midway through the third quarter, and that changes,
that really changes the game.

Speaker 3 (19:50):
Yeah, and then tom on punt too. Tomin punted on
the Eagles side of the ball, and what was it.
Eagles had a ten minute, eleven minute DROs.

Speaker 1 (19:58):
Never give it back, right, so literally have the ball
for ten minutes twenty seconds.

Speaker 2 (20:03):
That was a bad Timelin game. I think overall, it.

Speaker 1 (20:06):
Almost feels like, you know, we were nervous about that
and nervous about that game, and nervous about the Chiefs
game because we were betting into the trends that we
knew they couldn't last forever. And I feel like in
both cases it's like we popped a zip and it's
like there's just so much it's all been relieved, and

(20:26):
we should go back again, now, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (20:29):
We're This was when I said Pittsburgh Sunday.

Speaker 3 (20:31):
Now you gave me a look of like I'm just
happy you said it, because I can't say anything right now.

Speaker 2 (20:35):
We're not right spot for Pittsburgh.

Speaker 1 (20:38):
All right, Let's look at a recap of our Week
fifteen in the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
Football Pick Them Contest. Congratulations to week fifteen first place
winner Michael Stimpert. Michael went five and zero got within
six of the tiebreaker, takes home our one thousand dollars
weekly prize. As always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected his

(20:59):
producer cuple Ward to the entry that finished dead fucking
last in the contest.

Speaker 4 (21:04):
Have you heard about the loadsome loser? He's a loser
about he still kids on try.

Speaker 1 (21:15):
This week's producer Cup award goes to Mark to you,
who went on to five missed the tiebreaker by almost
five hundred yards. Mark, please email our producer at podcast
at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize. Cleveland at Cincinnati,
Cincinnati's seven point favorite, Kevin Stefanski would not commit to
Jamis as his quarterback. I will not commit to betting

(21:39):
on the Browns. I cannot commit to betting on the
Bengals to seven point favorites. With the defense, they gave
up fourteen to Will Levis and thirteen to Mason Rudolph.
Can you.

Speaker 2 (21:53):
I don't know, it's tough. What are we gonna do here?

Speaker 1 (21:57):
Pass?

Speaker 2 (21:58):
All right?

Speaker 1 (22:00):
Have an opinion. I don't have an opinion. If I'm
playing a number, I want to play Cleveland.

Speaker 2 (22:05):
It just sucks, even if it's DTR.

Speaker 3 (22:06):
Like I want to bet Cleveland even if it's Chamius
or DTR because no matter what, they're gonna be able
to move the ball.

Speaker 2 (22:11):
We already know that against the Cincinnati.

Speaker 1 (22:12):
Defense, Yeah, they're terrible.

Speaker 3 (22:15):
What you just said those issues for me is that
what happens on the turnover side, like what burns us?
And has Cleveland just totally given up at this point
because that that second half looked like a team that
had nothing going, no spark at all, even defensively like
they had a couple of big time stops stops, but
overall it just felt like a total nothing game where

(22:38):
they just don't want to be there. So, like you said,
the number everything about it, I want to play Cleveland.
I just I don't have an inma Chad to ride
it for another week.

Speaker 1 (22:47):
I don't know they're not for the contest for sure.
I also feel like there's other games that we're going
to like more. I do think we can find five
games that we like. Simon, there's been much missile towing
and Hearts have been glowing when the playoffs are near.
That means the holiday season is upon us, and with
thousands of five star reviews, let's make the Gift of

(23:10):
Tommy John our newest holiday tradition. It's lovely weather for
a pair of great fitting underwear, and as our listeners know,
Tommy John helps deliver those special cringle tingles all year long. Simon,
why will you be giving the Gift of Tommy John
this season?

Speaker 2 (23:28):
Because it's the gift at last.

Speaker 1 (23:30):
That's right, there's still time to throw downfield with Tommy
John and become the greatest gifter of all time. But
time is running out. Go to Tommy John dot com
slash favorites right now for your last minute holiday gifts
forty percent off, just in time only at Tommy John
dot com slash favorites. Very interesting game La Rams at

(23:51):
New York Jets. Jets are three point underdogs. On Sunday night,
we discussed liking the Jets. I'm very surprised that the
money has come steaming in on the Rams. This is
a pros joe split with tickets on the Jets money
on the Rams. This move. It's not at three at
bet three six five, but it is at three and
a half. I mean it's at three at bet three

(24:13):
six five, but it's at three and a half at
a lot of other books. Are you surprised at the move?

Speaker 3 (24:21):
No, I mean I'm surprised to know that more tickets
are on the Jets because it's like, this is the
definition of the public hammering the Rams and the pros
will just bet the Jets. So there's a couple of
games like that this week that's like, you know, I'm
sorry ahead of time people like meanscha might have to
force one of the contest because it is it's just
a glaring number movement where it's like this should probably

(24:43):
be closer to a pick maybe minus one and a
half on the Rams, and we're just getting a ton
of value here just because you know, this Rams team
have had they've had some big wins in prime time
spot in games where it's like, you know, last week,
people are just going to check out up to the weather, right.
Stafford threw three interceptions that were dropped, like there's no

(25:05):
beating around that, Like he had a bad game, they
stole one. Now the public's rewarding them. Like it's just
a very bizarre scenario on the flip side, you know,
as much I want to shoot on the Jets coaching
staff for that end of the game. Overall, Rogers has
looked better as he's gotten more comfortable with the weapons
on the team. Like that was totally a game where

(25:29):
you know, if Devanta Adams wasn't on that team.

Speaker 2 (25:32):
There's no way they cover that number. Like DeVonta Adams
literally took.

Speaker 3 (25:35):
Over that game just because of him and the Rogers connection.
So that's a way that they can easily attack this
Ram secondary.

Speaker 2 (25:42):
We've seen this Ramp secondary just young, inexperienced.

Speaker 3 (25:45):
Now they're going up against a veteran like DeVonta a
Devanta Adams obviously doesn't have the game he had last week.
That's going to open up everything else in the offense
as well, like we've already talked about that. So yeah,
I hate it because I wanted to avoid this Jets team,
But now, like you just said, now that it's up
to three and a half, you can't avoid it. That's
there's too much value there. That's such a good number

(26:05):
you have to take the Jets.

Speaker 2 (26:07):
This line stinks for a letdown spot for this Rams team.

Speaker 1 (26:10):
After going thirty five games without throwing for three hundred yards.
Aaron Rodgers went over that against Miami and finished with
two hundred and eighty nine versus the Jacks. He has
looked mobile, he's been evading the rush, he's been accurate
on the run, he's been connecting with receivers downfield. I

(26:32):
already made a note. We've got a Rams pass defense
that is bottom third of the league rush d and
overall yards per play that is bottom five, not bottom
fifth of the league, literally bottom five in the league.
They're missing some key players. I feel like we're going
to be in the foxhol Like. I don't understand sort

(26:55):
of the money coming in on the Rams here, because
it is like they've and sexy against the best team
in the NFL in the Bills, and they went ugly
against their biggest rival in a must win spot. So
I don't know what. I don't know what guys are
betting here. Are they betting the you know that Stafford

(27:15):
McVeigh versus Rogers uhbrick matchup? That's the only thing I
can think of is that they just they like the
coaching quarterback mismatch more than they like the number.

Speaker 3 (27:31):
Yeah, just the Rams are a better team. I mean
they're I mean, I have to check them. I'm pretty
sure they're leaving their division now, so maybe that's the end. Yeah,
they are, like, well, they're playing people view that they're
playing for more.

Speaker 2 (27:41):
They're leading their division. This Jets team is playing for nothing.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
Coming off a win, you expect them to have a
lutdown here, so I get their perspective. Also extended rest
for that Rams team.

Speaker 2 (27:51):
But yeah, I just think they're just overvalue, a little
overrated right now?

Speaker 1 (27:56):
All right, speaking of overvalue and overrated, are the Philadelphe
Eagles overvalued and overrated? Visiting their division rivals, the Washington
Commanders at bet three sixty five? This is three. There
are a lot of three and a half's out there.
We discussed it a bit on Sunday night. I want

(28:16):
to take the hook here is this. Simon says it is.

Speaker 2 (28:21):
Simon says Washington three and a half. When Simon says
do it, we do what Sion's says. He just nailed.
It's all about the number. We talked Sunday night. We
loved it at four.

Speaker 3 (28:32):
We knew it was gonna come down because it was
just a way too inflated line and it's going to
be three by kickoff, like this.

Speaker 2 (28:38):
Is another game.

Speaker 3 (28:39):
Oh yeahs pros Joe's Like the public is going to
hammer this Eagles team that you know, not that this
is their last tough game with the schedule, right. They
end with I think the Cowboys and the Giants. I
guess that could be tough for them in some ways.

Speaker 2 (28:54):
But this this is the type of game where if
the Eagles.

Speaker 3 (28:59):
Somehow win it, they're not winning by more than a
field goal. Like this is gonna be a really ugly close,
slow scoring game. And last time they played, Washington was
in it until they made a couple of little stupid
mistakes and obviously the Eagles just open it up in
the second half of them with Saquon So you know,
we've seen time taking them times. Teams that see another
team the second time around, it's just different. They know

(29:20):
to play each other, especially a playoff team like that
Washington is.

Speaker 2 (29:23):
So we talked about it Sunday night.

Speaker 3 (29:26):
That was a dumb number open with four to four
and a half, and it was opened that eye because
Commanders should have lost one on a terrible ref technicality.
I don't know if you saw that clip of that
ref top of the clock when you shouldn't have. Then
the flip side, the Eagles just blow out in a
game that no one was betting on them, right, everyone
was on the other side. So it's like the public
tends to overadjust to those type of moments where they

(29:48):
got rolled by a team. They come back and heavy
on the other side the following week. So yeah, the
the unfortunate part just number has moved so much. If
you can find the three and a half, find it now,
this is just a number. I can see get the
three by Sunday. It's just the pros. You're gonna keep
hitting it once again. It's just all about inflated lines
and taking the value. And that's that's what this line is.

(30:10):
It's just inflated right now. This Egos team is really good,
really talented. Divisional games are just different. They simply are.
So that to me is the defining point here.

Speaker 1 (30:19):
It'll be three before we end this live show. It's
a three. We're anywhere that it's three and a half,
it's you know, three and a half minus one twenty.
So it's gonna move and it's elevated big. Every single
place that is three and a half plus three and
a half. So it's going to be a three before

(30:40):
you know it. So, yeah, if you want it, Simon says,
grab it. Arizona at Carolina. Carolina's a four point dog.
We're back at it with the Carolina Panthers. Finally they're underdogs,
so we don't have to be tempted. You know, good
for us that we did not put them into the
contest this past week. We wrote him as dogs for

(31:01):
several weeks. We jumped off this week. Dave Canalis, coach
the Panthers, has been saying that his starting quarterback is
week to week. He announced yesterday Bryce Young will be
the starting quarterback. He did not have a great game.
Four turnovers. You know they the defense cannot guard Ceedee Lamb.
Micah Parsons was dominant. I think he had two sacks

(31:23):
in the game. Just was all over Bryce Young, force
and fumbles. Was it just a it was a regression
game for him. I don't want to put this in
the contest, but you know, Aleen Panthers here.

Speaker 3 (31:37):
No, I actually love Panthers here. I think it's a
good number. I have this a three and a half.

Speaker 2 (31:41):
It's four.

Speaker 3 (31:42):
Really yeah, again, it's not one, like we're not getting
two points of value.

Speaker 2 (31:45):
It's nothing crazy, but yeah, I just I love the
way this.

Speaker 3 (31:51):
Panthers team plays offensive league and especially the way they match.

Speaker 2 (31:54):
Up for this Cardinals team defensively.

Speaker 3 (31:55):
Cardinals are a team that they'll basically let you drive
up and down the fe they just can stop being
the red zone. And we kind of seen since the
Panthers have come back from that bye week that it
feels like that's one of the things that actually improved
with Bryce Young's game is his playing style inside the
red zone, his decision making inside the red zone. So,
like you just said, that was the worst game they've

(32:16):
had in weeks last week, and that to me is
the nervous part chat where it's like, did they get
a lot of bad habits once again? Did Bryce Young
get some bad habits again last week? And that are
in carror of this game because Arizona, as much like
to beat up on them, you know, they're a playoff
basically Borderland playoff team that's been overall played pretty well
this season. Like they're a team that you know, if

(32:37):
Kyler shows up, they would probably be leading their division
this year. Like he's had a lot of games where
he's disappeared, so I mean you going into this no
the deal like Kyler could easily burn us back in
this Panthers team, like if he has a Kyler game,
because Panthers defense is terrible, like terror. I mean, they
made Cooper Rush look like an All Pro last week.

Speaker 1 (32:57):
You look at the I've talked about these next Gen stats,
and you know there's twenty four different metrics that you
can compare a team to team, and you look down
the columns Panthers defense thirtieth thirtieth, thirtieth, thirty yeth thirtieth thirtieth,
right literally for every single one of them.

Speaker 3 (33:14):
No, And it's like, and they don't there's no way
of hiding it because we already talked about it. I
think it was Derek Brown, like they've lost some of
the key guys early in the year that like they
already were thin, they lost their best basically their best defenders,
and it's like only gotten worse. So yeah, that's that's
why your hesitation here, Chad. I get there's other dogs
I like more. It's just I'm basically playing the model
in my faith in the Panthers where it's like this

(33:36):
Cardinals team, you know, we've seen it time and time again. Now,
if Kyler doesn't show up, they could easily lose these games.
And the fact that you can get plus one seventy
five right on the money line of the Panthers just
feels like it's too inflated for this, this Cardinals team.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
I for a second there, I thought you were gonna
say you loved Arizona. And it's been such a it's
been such a year that if you had said that,
I honestly it would have made me feel worse than
any time we had contradicted each other the entire year,
because then I just would have felt like I might

(34:12):
as well be throwing darts, because if we're not on
the same side about Carolina, then what am I even
looking at right now? That's how that's honest one, that's
honestly how I would have felt about that game. That's
where my confidence would have gone. I might have had
to hang it up. Tennessee at Indy this is a

(34:34):
very weird game. Indianapolis is a four point favorite. If
I'm looking at this right in the Action app and
on actionnetwork dot Com, where I can see the betting
ticket splits and the money splits the public, meaning the
tickets are coming in on Tennessee. But the money is
leaning Indy, And I don't know if you're seeing this

(34:57):
as well. I don't know if you're feeling this way,
like are people fading? Anthony Richardson, who reverted back to
pre benching days and against the Broncos, was completed just
forty four percent of his passes had two picks, Like,
are they are people banking on Tennessee starting Mason Rudolph?

(35:19):
What are you seeing here?

Speaker 2 (35:21):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (35:22):
I would say that it's definitely Mason Rudolph to me
that like they want to because we already talked about
coming into last week that was historical what Tennessee's done.
I'm not covering. I mean obviously has the number of
like it's rare and unique teams only have two covers
whatever they're at at this point through the season, Like
usually the books over adjust just to because they know

(35:43):
that the public's gonna keep fading that that side, and
like this this Honestly, I want to be on the Colts,
I'll be honest.

Speaker 1 (35:50):
Jef like coming so do I like? But like I can't, Oh,
we really.

Speaker 3 (35:56):
Gonna like Mason Rudolph scasof though, That's all I was
gonna say to you, are we really gonna let that
screw us?

Speaker 1 (36:00):
No, No, honestly, it's it's not Mason Rudolph. To me, it's
why did this number move down? Like it moved from
four and a half to four, which is great, but
the money is on the Colts. So why would bookmakers
move this based on the public liking the Titans. That's
not I thought.

Speaker 3 (36:18):
I thought it was because of the Mason Rudolph will Levis.
Then that, to me, is that's what I thought the
movement was. Like, I know it's not much, but I
have them a full point better than will Levis.

Speaker 2 (36:28):
So like, to me, this should keep going.

Speaker 3 (36:29):
I think it should be a three and a half,
which again, right now I'm showing value on Tennessee.

Speaker 2 (36:34):
I should be betting Tennessee. I know, but we've talked.

Speaker 3 (36:37):
This Colts team has just been better all season at home,
especially Anthony Richardson has been better at home and this
so yeah, it's just I'm honestly.

Speaker 2 (36:45):
Shocked that anyone's even betting the Colts.

Speaker 3 (36:47):
I thought everyone's gonna be like, u's really pissed off
and burned about this team.

Speaker 2 (36:50):
But you know, like we say, Chad just got to
burn the tapes and move on.

Speaker 3 (36:54):
So I'm trying to I'm not trying to overthink it,
and I wanted to be on the colts here, but right,
maybe I'll just avoid this one because, like you just said,
it's it's historical, this Tennessee team, Like eventually it's going
to come back around.

Speaker 2 (37:05):
They're going to start covering some of these games because
it's just no team.

Speaker 3 (37:09):
I mean, Evan probably has better numbers than I do,
but yeah, the fourth team is super Bowl Air to
be two and twelve against the spread or worse. So
this is something we don't see, Chad. This is historic
since the Super Bowl era. This is the fourth team
to be this bad. So that's my fear here is
like we know it's going to come back around, Like
they're not going two and fifteen, right, Like they're going

(37:30):
to cover one or one or two of these ones.

Speaker 2 (37:32):
At the end here.

Speaker 3 (37:33):
So you're right, maybe maybe I should just avoid this one.

Speaker 1 (37:37):
Well, I'll leave it on the list. We can see
what happens over the next four to eight hours. We're
certainly going to get some sharp calls about it because
people do like the cults here, and you know, maybe
we're willing to go back into the fire if Jonathan
Taylor has the courage to get back on that field,
to go back to practice after a rookie mistake and

(38:02):
an epic meltdown that I really do believe that cost
his team the game. You watch. I haven't watched Shane
Steichen's press conference postgame, and I haven't sort of looked
for his quotes about that in the last forty eight hours.
But I did watch Sean Payton just because I love
Sean Payton. I think he's, you know, brilliant and funny

(38:22):
and one of the more honest coaches. And he couldn't
even find the words to talk about that. Jonathan Taylor
drop of the ball before he got into the end zone.
That's it. That's the game. They're down thirteen points the Broncos.
We're winning our bet. Boennix was having a terrible game.
That was just epic. So if he can do it,

(38:46):
we can do it. Burn the tapes, Burn the tapes.
Detroit at Chicago. Guess what. Guess what Simon this no
no no, no, no, no, no no. This line has moved
from seven to six and a half. So somebody is
betting the Bears I bet they are, and it was

(39:06):
my first instinct, but then I remember how horrible the
Bears rushing defense has been, and I'm thinking, even without
David Montgomery, the Lions will want to take out their
frustration on someone and this like Caleb Williams when he's
throwing it, it looks like he's trying to throw the

(39:27):
ball through a brick wall every single time. No touch,
no arc, just the laser, absolute laser, every single time
he lets it go. I'm sure the Bears are the
right side here. I don't think you want to touch it.
I don't really feel like I need to touch it.
I think I think the Lions have something to prove.

(39:48):
They need to win. I think the Bears are They're
just trying to survive for the next three games.

Speaker 2 (39:57):
Yeah, seven and a half would have made sense.

Speaker 3 (40:00):
I've been okay that that number makes sense because I
believe it was ten and a half and then went
down to nine and a half on that Thanksgiving game,
and we joked that game, if just one of those
field goals by Detroit I think they kicked four or
five feegals in the game, was a touchdown, they cover
that number like that. The Bears just got I think
we all realizing now they've they had a crazy stretch

(40:20):
that they got a really lucky, really fortunate and it
broke their way. And yeah, the Lions defense is so
banged up that if this was seven and a half,
I could have been convinced because it's like, we'll have
an opportunity for the back door right at some point.
I mean, you know it's obviously on the books, mind
because you just said they moved it down now to
it's in the spot where every teaser in the world's.

Speaker 2 (40:42):
Gonna have the lines on their side.

Speaker 3 (40:43):
So that's that's the thing where it's like I I
old me and Chad would be hammering this Bear's number,
like this is the.

Speaker 2 (40:50):
Trap of all traps, like lines.

Speaker 3 (40:53):
I mean, from my perspective, I feel like they're gonna
win this by twenty points, right like you just said,
Dan Campbell's gonna take out all that on them this week.
And you know that was the lines in my memory
of their first low since that Bucks game, and we
remember we backed them the following week after that.

Speaker 2 (41:09):
Buck so done.

Speaker 1 (41:10):
They've won eleven in a row.

Speaker 3 (41:12):
Right, so that yeah, so you know you expect that
major balance back spot here, but it's once again comes
down to the injuries. Chat like one of the injuries
catch up to them. So maybe this is the one
favorite we get in because I do love the line,
especially at six and a half, but it's.

Speaker 2 (41:26):
Like, oh man, all the injuries they have, it's just
hard for me to put a number on this Lion's
team right now.

Speaker 3 (41:32):
It's like, I know how great they are, but the
problem is can they get stops defensively? And you know,
me and Chad have a little peatsdy. We were up
it was it twenty one points at half with this
Lion's team and we got back door by this exact
Bears team.

Speaker 2 (41:46):
So it is tough.

Speaker 1 (41:48):
Well, I got a different favorite that is a huge favorite,
and I want to see I want to see if
I could entice you a little bit. Uh, But yeah,
I think Lions they win this going away. The Bears
are a terrible, terrible football team. They they really can't

(42:08):
stop the run, and that's they can't protect the passer
and they can't stop the run. So one thing, even
if the Lions can't pressure the quarterback, they will be
able to run on this Bear's defense, right And.

Speaker 3 (42:22):
I mean you'll agree since they made a coaching change.
They have not looked prepared in either game.

Speaker 1 (42:26):
No, as soon as Thomas Brown stopped being the offensive
coordinator and started being the head coach, they are What
are they losing?

Speaker 2 (42:33):
Like?

Speaker 1 (42:34):
Is it thirty four to nothing in the first quarters?
Like it's pretty honest to god, It's just it's embarrassing
how bad it is. So we'll go back to it.
I put it on the list. We can, we can
discuss it on Thursday. New York Giants at Atlanta. Atlanta
is a double digit favorite. Not surprising how many tickets

(42:58):
are on the Giants right now sixty four percent and
the game open to ten is double digits. A digit
too far? Is that what the public is saying to
back the Atlanta Falcons? Has have we reached the tipping
point the public? Not even the public will back Kirk

(43:19):
Cousins as a ten point favorite.

Speaker 3 (43:22):
I agreed, are Like, we would be hammering this number
if we didn't think the Giants might have quit in
the season.

Speaker 2 (43:27):
That's the fear.

Speaker 3 (43:28):
It's like they are so bad in so many different ways,
and they've had such brutal injuries this season, and like,
do you know who their quarterback is?

Speaker 2 (43:36):
This week, Is it Drew Lock, Like, is it Tim Boys?

Speaker 1 (43:39):
Is it timbo? I mean that's the problem is, like
I'd love to hit the Giants right now because the
Falcons really shouldn't be ten point favorites against anybody, but
I want to know who's playing quarterback.

Speaker 3 (43:53):
People are already talking that they're gonna cut Kirk after
this season, which was just crazy to think they'll eat
all that dead cat money. But because the success of
the the Broncos this season, the sex of the you know,
the Bills, what they've done with all that dead cat money,
that maybe they're just like, no, you can you can.

Speaker 2 (44:08):
Make it work. Oh it's terrible.

Speaker 3 (44:11):
That's why I hate this number check because it's like
it feels too easy, Like who is taking Atlanta minus ten?
Like Kirk cuttins right, But people are like, I we've
seen it now, Like people are putting this in their teasers,
their parlays, like they're hammering this Atlanta number because everyone
just thinks what we just talked about that the Giants
have given up a quid in the season. But yeah,

(44:34):
another line that's extremely tempting. There's another huge dog this
week that I do not like at all, but this
one I could be talking to, like if you came
in here on Thursday and you're like, it's ten and
a half now and it's Drew Lock.

Speaker 2 (44:45):
Like we know it's not Timbo.

Speaker 3 (44:46):
We know it's gonna be Drew Lock, who would be
shocking because I think he had a walking boot in
his foot like a week ago.

Speaker 2 (44:53):
I'd be in.

Speaker 3 (44:54):
I honestly would be in on the Shins team. But
if it's Tim Boyle, I don't think I can get
there like he is.

Speaker 2 (45:00):
He's a fourth stringer.

Speaker 3 (45:01):
He's the guy that you just you bring him in
as an insurance policy. He was never supposed to play,
but now he's playing. So I can't do it. If
it's Tim Boyle.

Speaker 1 (45:10):
How crazy would it be if we're going to the
Mattress with Drew Locke, who we promised ourselves when he
was in the Broncos we would never bet on again.
This is what the bookmakers do to us. They give
us such tempting, tempting numbers.

Speaker 2 (45:29):
It's an insane number.

Speaker 1 (45:31):
It's an insane they are. It's not even tempting.

Speaker 2 (45:34):
They're plus four hundred to win outright.

Speaker 1 (45:36):
It's a challenge. They're challenging us.

Speaker 2 (45:41):
Oh, my god.

Speaker 3 (45:41):
I love it though, And it would be so Giants
to do to win this game and get rid of
them having the number one pick, Like they're the type
of team that would do that.

Speaker 1 (45:48):
Oh, I have no doubt over the next three games
they're going to win a game, lose out on the
number one pick, and then and then the Giants ownership
are just going to fire day Ball and Joe Sean.
That's what's going to happen. Probably should have already Minnesota
at Seattle. Seattle is three at bet three six five,
but at least when we came on the air, they
were at three and a half at some other places.

(46:10):
I'm just checking the update right now. It's three across
the board except for one place. I bet it at
three and a half this morning on Seattle. I think
there's too much Sam Darnold love right now. I think
even before the Bears game, the conversation was about how

(46:31):
he is going to get paid, how amazing he's been playing,
what a career resurrection. Should the Vikings find a way
to keep him. He beats the Bears in prime time,
and there's more fawning about how amazing he is. He
did throw sixteen in completions, and the Vikings line I
do think is in some serious trouble. Cam Robinson had

(46:53):
a terrible game playing against a weak Bears defensive line,
letting guys get by him, a lot of false starts.
Brian O'Neal, their right tackle in and out of the
game injured. He was sort of the guy keeping it together.
And this Seahawks defensive line is just much better. Leonard

(47:16):
Williams especially this year, has been amazing. And Sam Donald
just keeps the ball for so long, letting his routes
come open down the field. It's pro jos. Game tickets
are on Minnesota, money's on Seattle. I like the Seahawks.

Speaker 3 (47:34):
I agree, just because once again it's another game. It's
all about the number, Like we're gonna have basically three games,
and we love because they're all three and a halfs.
But it's all numbers. I really like and matchups. I like, right,
you just talked about this Vikings team. They deserve all
the respect like this, this fan base everybody like you know,
only really really smart professionals, which I am clearly not one,

(47:55):
believe in this team head of this season.

Speaker 2 (47:57):
And Colin Cowhard, I should say, and for their reasons.

Speaker 3 (48:01):
I just didn't understand where they really thought that Kevin
O'Connor could solve this whole Sam Donald thing. And like
you just talked about, when he doesn't have his best
games chat, he still makes these big time throws this
season like he has all season. They need him to
come through and you know, I can't. I can't tell
you how many games they've had this year that have
been coin flip games that they somehow won and now

(48:22):
they control their destiny. They can be the fucking one seed.
It's pretty crazy the spot this Vikings team is that
from having you know, a six and a half win
total to they might be the one seed with a
nameless defense and Sam Donald running the offense. It's it's
bizarre orbits while we love football, and it's you know,
a reason here I wanted to be on Seattle for

(48:44):
what you've just talked about that I knew this Vikings
team was gonna be inflated, especially after their win on
Monday night. We talked about they're coming off a short
week having to travel to Seattle, but we don't know
the update.

Speaker 2 (48:55):
I don't know if you have an.

Speaker 1 (48:55):
Update, but I don't know is Gino's playing.

Speaker 3 (48:59):
So it is that he's gonna play. Yeah, I would
need to see more than that though, because he basically
had one of those if his leg was planted, he's
getting a new acl MCL right. Like the way that
guy shot right to his knee. I don't want to
call it a cheap shop because I guess the guy
was falling at the time, but it was like it
was one of those they've changed your rules because of it,
and they didn't call it flag in the play because

(49:20):
he was apparently.

Speaker 2 (49:20):
He was airborne one of his leggers in the air.

Speaker 3 (49:22):
But yeah, this matchup for this Vikings team, we have
enough data this season. They just play close games, right overall,
that's most of their games are one possession games, and
we've seen that the second half when they've gone off
game script, they've tend to struggle. Now, it doesn't has
not hold true these last couple of weeks, right, Sam

(49:43):
Darnold has been great in the second half of a
lot of these games, and they've drove the.

Speaker 2 (49:46):
Field and scored a lot of touchdowns.

Speaker 3 (49:47):
But heading to the last week, we saw Seattle's defense
have kind of improved. Those last couple of weeks so
it's a tough one. Chat we're had three and a half,
I agree with you, but once this dips to three
two and a half, I kind of like the Vikings honestly,
because I do think they are the better team.

Speaker 2 (50:01):
The same thing I felt with Green Bay last week.
It's like your.

Speaker 3 (50:04):
Division is so good that when they get outside their division,
they've just been dominating the competition. Like Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota,
they've been incredible outside their division. So yeah, it's all
about the number year from each have three and a half.
I am totally on board with you. I'd put this
in the contest, but the way the professionals are betting
this and they're hitting this number, it might be down

(50:26):
to two and a half come contest time.

Speaker 2 (50:28):
So it'll be tough for us to get this one in.

Speaker 1 (50:31):
I think it will be down to two and a half.
By the way, this is one of three games that
I had as my EXAC decision and I pulled off
only because even though Gino is playing like I'm still
a little anxious about it. Like you said me too. Also,
you can't get like I want to give a game

(50:52):
where I know the majority of the places are offering
the number that I like, and nobody's really offering their
three and a half if anymore, which is what I
bet it at. So it did not make it is
my exact decision, but we will get there. Simon. Can
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Speaker 2 (51:14):
Game Time?

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(53:03):
New England at Buffalo Buffalo is a fourteen point favorite. Simon.
We have taken one massive number this season. Will this
be the second one?

Speaker 2 (53:15):
I don't am I sucker? I love the Bills. What's
going on?

Speaker 1 (53:19):
I love them?

Speaker 2 (53:22):
The bills make me.

Speaker 1 (53:25):
Throw your hands something, throw your hair back.

Speaker 2 (53:28):
Come on now, the bills.

Speaker 4 (53:30):
I'm making it happen now.

Speaker 2 (53:32):
I love that though, isn't this too easy?

Speaker 3 (53:35):
But then we overthought it. Last week we knew the
Rayvens was probably gonna be too easy.

Speaker 2 (53:38):
It was. It was too easy, Simon.

Speaker 1 (53:42):
I love we loved the Lions. A few weeks ago
we made the Lions minus ten. I forget who was
against our big balls better of the week? Maybe it was.

Speaker 2 (53:52):
Actually that was no we had that minus fourteen. I
think the.

Speaker 1 (53:55):
Titans, right, Yeah, like dread Mayo is now going out
on press conferences and throwing his offensive coordinator under the bus.
I would not be surprised if that's the tipping point
for the Patriots to just say, screw it, We're going
to get Mike Vrabel and we're rebuilding this whole thing

(54:18):
from scratch because they're so disappointed in that and this team,
and he did not handle that well. Like Josh Allen
is a double digit fave, doesn't scare me. Covering that
number at fifty four percent at home, it's a bit
higher if the spread is fourteen or more. Obviously, the
sample size on that is tiny. I don't see this

(54:40):
team letting up. I think they're having too much fun.
I think he's gunning for an MVP. He just saw
Lamar to five touchdowns against the Giants. I am not
afraid to bet the Buffalo Bills here.

Speaker 3 (54:55):
Yeah, and again, I already know I'm gonna get a
lot of texts from a lot of pros like what
about all the injuries to the Bills defense? And you
know my pushback would be they're coming off a Rams
and Detroit game, like two of the class the nfcs
that are just you know, those are really high powered offense.
We don't have those same worries with this New England team.

(55:18):
And you know, the Josh Allen factor, like you just
talked about, We've never seen a quarterback play at this
type of level these last couple of weeks. Like I
don't know if the stat I saw was true, but
it was basically that he had seventeen touchdowns in zero
turnovers in the last like four weeks. Like it doesn't
it doesn't even sound like real numbers, but that's that's
how Dominie's been offensively. So you're right, it's really a

(55:39):
bet on We know they're gonna get points offensively. Can
can this Bills team get stops against Drake May?

Speaker 2 (55:45):
We expect he should.

Speaker 3 (55:47):
Obviously, the fear for us would be this is a
nice rest game for this Bills team, right, they don't
need to go all out, Like there's no reason for
them to really blow.

Speaker 2 (55:56):
This team out.

Speaker 3 (55:56):
But I still think in the back of his mind,
Josh Allen's pushing for the MVP. I just can't see
him stepping off the gas like he's gonna yeah, right, offensively,
I feel like him and Joe Brady are just gonna
keep pushing it.

Speaker 2 (56:07):
So I'm with you. I like it.

Speaker 3 (56:09):
It's just it sucks that it's such a huge number,
Like it just feels so gross to do. But I
personally have this at seventeen and a half. It's fourteen
just a lot of value. But it's like, man, this
is such a huge, huge number for a divisional game.
But I think we both can't avoid a rate. I
think we both love this.

Speaker 1 (56:28):
Bill side Matt Mitchell, feel free to weigh in in
the chat or vocally as our resident Buffalo Bill's super fan.
How are you feeling about this game? Do you have fears?
Will you yell at me if I make this my
EXAC decision? Because this was one of the three games
I wanted to make my EXAC decision.

Speaker 5 (56:49):
I guess my only concerner would be whether it's a
big number. But yeah, I'm not feeling particularly anxious about this,
and the vibes are indeed strong. Also, it's their first
time back home and a little while, so they'll be
quit a celebratory atmosphere among the scumbags of Western New York.

Speaker 2 (57:05):
God bless them.

Speaker 5 (57:06):
Yeah, no, wind very cold looks like under twenty degree
at kickoff kind of games. But yeah, I don't know
how you could feel excited about taking New England Buffalo
Bill's executive decision, the.

Speaker 4 (57:23):
Choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

Speaker 5 (57:27):
Are you your honor's execute executive decision?

Speaker 1 (57:32):
Minus fourteen? No fear, It's weird. I started researching it,
and I'm like, what is this sensation I'm getting where
I want to back the Buffalo Bills at minus fourteen.
The other game on my list San Francisco at Miami Miami.

Speaker 2 (57:48):
Yeah, it's I thought it was this game.

Speaker 1 (57:50):
It was Miami's a one and a half point favorite.
We talked about a Sunday night. I was leading Miami.
You were intrigued. The tickets are on San Francisco. The
money is Oni Miami right now. To me, the strength
of the Dolphins is their short passing game top four
and EPA per play for passes under ten yards time
to throw under ten yards fastest in the league. That's

(58:10):
where the Niners defense is the weakest. What has your
research shown you? Are you feeling similar to me?

Speaker 4 (58:17):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (58:17):
Honestly, we talked Tonday night.

Speaker 3 (58:19):
I like the Miami with you, and it was just
really about the number. I mean, I personally thought my
mode would have it at minus three does and it's
only minus two.

Speaker 2 (58:26):
So it's I think it's in the locks of a.

Speaker 3 (58:28):
Lot of professionals viewing that you know, this Miami team
does kind of suck, and that you know, as much
as we bashed this forty nine ers team, it's going
to come back the other way, and we saw that
last week. But now you know, if they catch one
of those picks by Stafford, if Deebo catches one of
those passes, they're favorite in this game, no doubt. I mean,

(58:49):
they're probably a minus two and a half. We're getting
great value on Miami. So that's that's my pushback here,
is that.

Speaker 2 (58:54):
We're not getting a great number.

Speaker 3 (58:55):
Like this number feels pretty right, like both these teams
incredible desperate further playoff lives. You know, Kyle Shanahan is
the teacher here, like he's going against the student and
his former coach, and we've seen that kind.

Speaker 2 (59:11):
Of work in Shanahan's favor in the past. But uh yeah,
it's just all the injuries to the forty nine ers.

Speaker 3 (59:17):
I still feel like there's value on this Dolphins team,
especially once again.

Speaker 2 (59:20):
If there's no Trent Williams. Once again.

Speaker 3 (59:22):
We've talked about those numbers with Purdy, like he's a
different quarterback, especially when he's worrying about the block of protection.
And Miami sneakily has a pretty good pass rush, Like
they're not a team that doesn't have guys to get that.
I mean, Chop Robinson, say what you want about the
kid as a rookie, he's kind of turned it around here.
This is the second half of the season, So yeah, Chad,

(59:43):
I don't know. Maybe we'll come around more so on
Miami on Thursday, but as we say it right now,
I still like them. I'm I'm not gonna force to
be one of our five. But it's like, I am
really intrigued with this game and this number, just because
I think there is value still on this Miami side.

Speaker 1 (59:57):
So the reason I didn't make it my exact decision
and I leaned Bill is something you just said in
the middle. It feels like the Niners get a pick
and this is a different number, and I feel like
I feel like the books are saying to me, take

(01:00:20):
the short favorite. That's what we want you to do, right,
And even though the money has been coming into Miami,
and I like seeing that I'm on the right side
of the wise guys. Right now, there's something about it
that is keeping me from sort of exuberant irrational confidence.

Speaker 3 (01:00:36):
Well it's come down. It did touch two and a
half chat, so your initial read was right. We did
our show Sunday night Monday morning. At one point it
touched two and a half, and then we saw a
professional money hit the forty nine ers and it came
back down to okay, one and a half one, So
it is. It is a pretty split game. I will
say that.

Speaker 1 (01:00:50):
All right, there you go. So something my spidy senses
are tingling that it's not perfect for me. Whereas the bills.
As soon as you said you've got this at seventeen
or seventeen and a half and we're at fourteen, I'm like, yeah,
all right, that's what I needed to hear. Jacksonville at
the Las Vegas Raiders. This line has flipped. It's gone
from Jacksonville plus one to Raiders plus one. I don't know.

(01:01:16):
I guess like we take the Jags, but I don't
want to do anything with this game.

Speaker 2 (01:01:25):
That's fair. Yeah, I bet the Jags.

Speaker 3 (01:01:27):
I threw them in a couple of teasers because it
was plus one and a half. And you're right, like
a couple books have now flipped in the Jags. Your
favorite which we talked about was going to happen Sunday night.

Speaker 2 (01:01:37):
If you want to avoid it for right now, I'm
fine with that.

Speaker 3 (01:01:40):
I might have a better opinion come Thursday, because yeah,
I'm people are clearly can tell.

Speaker 2 (01:01:45):
I love Mac Jones and the Shaguars offense right now.

Speaker 3 (01:01:48):
They're just a fun team that can move the ball
and vice versus. This Raiders team just looks dreadful, totally quit.
I mean miracle cover last night. I think they had
three field is to get the back door.

Speaker 1 (01:02:01):
They're just terrible, and they had the multiple special teams miscues,
block kicks, block punts, I gues. It's a pathetic team. Uh,
we can talk about again on Like in my notes,
I'm like Mac Jones is irrationally confident. Yeah, a guy

(01:02:26):
who is named Mac Jones. Do you know what I mean?
He walked, he swaggers, he walks around like he owns
the place.

Speaker 3 (01:02:32):
Oh but the one he's barking, the d lineman who
could snap him in half like a twig I'm just like,
this dude's the fucking worst.

Speaker 1 (01:02:38):
Yeah, it's he's such a punk.

Speaker 3 (01:02:40):
But it's perspective too though, right, because when Josh Allen
does I'm like, Oh, this guy's fucking hilarious.

Speaker 2 (01:02:45):
He's the man. Well Mac Jones does it, It's like,
shut the fuck up, Mac Jones.

Speaker 1 (01:02:49):
Josh Allen is, you know, six eleven, four hundred pounds
and runs like a gazelle and has a can for
an arm and is gonna win the mac Jones is
a guy who alienated his teammates in New England, is
now a backup on the worst team, one of the
worst teams in the league. So Tampa Bay at Dallas,

(01:03:12):
we both leave Dallas on Sunday night. The lines moved
in that direction four and a half to four? Is
it three and a half in some spots at four
at BET three sixty five, Like, Dallas is clearly better.
With Micah Parsons, he's been a menace since coming back.
Seven and a half sacks since he came back. Here's
the wild card to me, which I don't think is

(01:03:33):
getting discussed enough. Deron Bland, their cornerback. He came back
from a fractured foot a month ago with both of
them in the lineup. They're three and one, and now
in context that lost to the Bengals kind of looks
like a fluke. They seem to like Mike McCarthy, haven't

(01:03:53):
stopped playing for him. We liked the Cowboys on Sunday
just on instinct. I still like the Cowboys.

Speaker 3 (01:04:03):
Yeah, model backs up too. This number should be three.
It's four to four and a half, like you're saying
when it opened. Now, if you're lucky you can find
a four. There's only a couple of books left. I
still the four out there like this going down to
three three and a half. I know people are going
to be like, these guys love all the home dogs
this week, But it's all about the numbers, right, Like
we're getting a lot of the threes with the hook,
and we're seeing that we're ahead of the movement. Right
the numbers are coming down so clearly we're on the

(01:04:26):
right side.

Speaker 2 (01:04:26):
Of their professionals.

Speaker 3 (01:04:27):
And yeah, every pro I talk to the same view
as us. Right they're hitting the four and a half
on the Cowboys just because Tampa was a little inflated
because of that when they just had the week before
and should they beat the Chargers, Sure, should they have
blown them out by double digits? No, that feels like
a kind of a fluky game overall. So looking at

(01:04:47):
this matchup with Tampa, mean chat, we've given them a
ton of flowers. Right, They're a very complete team. As
an Eagles fan, I don't want to play them in
the playoffs. Like if Baker's hitting their right and this
defense is clicking with a lot of the guys they
had who play even passed Super Bowls and they're veteran defense,
they're they're a pretty scary team. But this is the
exact spot they let down. Like we've seen a time

(01:05:09):
and time again with this Tampa team, after big wins.

Speaker 2 (01:05:11):
They kind of have letdown games.

Speaker 3 (01:05:14):
You know, it's crazy looking back to Chad that they
lost those games to Atlanta where it's like Kirk has
been terrible all season and some reason he just would
blow out the Stampa team and those two games they played.
But yeah, like early in the year, I mean, you
took different positions on Tampa, and most of the times

(01:05:34):
we took them were after big wins to fade them, right,
It wasn't even when they were they were healthy at
this point, right, like they upset Detroit, a game that
burned us. Me and Chat were on Detroit that game.
We hammered the Denver the following week, which looking back
is kind of funny, but Denver went down there and
smoked them, right. I think they won twenty seven to
seven or twenty six to seven, like they killed them. Okay,

(01:05:54):
the next week they beat the Eagles the following week
day at a huge letdown game.

Speaker 2 (01:05:59):
Once again, I gets the land.

Speaker 3 (01:06:00):
So we've seen time and time again when they have
these big wins, these like really tone setting wins, they've
had letdown games the following week, So we don't know
what kind of game we're gett from Baker. But overall,
I feel like this Cowboys team with Cooper Rush, they
kind of know their identity here, which is just fource
feed Cede Lamb. Like basically we're on the same playbook
they have with Dak, but even more so, getting the

(01:06:21):
ball in Ceedee Lamb's hand makes them make plays. And
I don't really see anyone on the cornerback side that
can really slow down or stop CD in this matchup.

Speaker 2 (01:06:28):
So I like us always a being it.

Speaker 3 (01:06:30):
I like us to cover this back toward this number
or even went outright like this is another game I'll
throw in our mind on Robin like Cowboys.

Speaker 2 (01:06:36):
To me, they're a live dog right now.

Speaker 1 (01:06:38):
I couldn't agree more. This just in from producer Gifford.
Jerry Jones just said on the radio, he promises this
is real. So I'm entirely depending on Gifford. I've eaten
a lot of raccoon. It's not uncommon at all. One
of my favorites is squirrel. It's wonderful and I would

(01:07:00):
even ask for the brain of the squirrel. Delicious Seriously,
Jerry Jones today on the radio, go Cowboys, New Orleans
at green Bay. Green Bay is a thirteen and a
half point favorite. Is this the game you were talking
about a big favorite you like? Or was it the Bills?

Speaker 2 (01:07:20):
No, that was the Bills. This is this game I
honestly want to avoid beyond Green Bay.

Speaker 3 (01:07:28):
But this feels like a letdown spot for a Green
Bay team that's about to literally go through just a
juggernaut like they have, you know, a Vikings team on
deck that I feel like they know is that's the
game for them.

Speaker 2 (01:07:41):
So yeah, this is tough.

Speaker 3 (01:07:43):
Like I was trying to find a way to get
on the Screen Bay team because they've honestly been so
good to me.

Speaker 2 (01:07:47):
But knowing that this is coming up is their last.

Speaker 3 (01:07:50):
Tough game of the season against Minnesota, it's one that
can define their playoff seating, I could just see this
being a letdown spot. And yeah, it's what, don't know
who quarterback is of New Orleans right now.

Speaker 2 (01:08:00):
If it's that rookie once again.

Speaker 1 (01:08:02):
Well it's supposed to be Spencer Ratler, right, here's the.

Speaker 2 (01:08:04):
Way avoid it. If it's Spencer Ratler, I'd avoid it.

Speaker 1 (01:08:07):
That's that's what I would say. I want to avoid
it because of rather Also, Avin Kamara might not play,
like he left that last game with a groin injury
and he is not. There's no update on his status,
so we don't know if he's playing.

Speaker 2 (01:08:22):
That would actually be a big deal.

Speaker 3 (01:08:23):
That would honestly push me towards Green Bay, just because
he has been the life blow of that team, like
he really is. Yeah, he's been incredible this season, and yeah,
this it's just a train wreck. Everything is just so
battering now in New Orleans. It's like they know they're
tempted to with this number thirteen and a half, just
keeping a runner of fourteen. They know what I want
to do here, but I'm doing my best to fight

(01:08:43):
at all.

Speaker 1 (01:08:44):
Are they tempting us? Are they challenging us?

Speaker 2 (01:08:46):
That's true.

Speaker 1 (01:08:48):
I think we got a good list for Thursday, A
lot of home dogs, a couple of favorites. We got
a big favorite with the bills. Really fascinating to hear
what the wise guys have to say on Thursday with
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