December 20, 2024 • 47 mins
Colin reacts to the Chargers beating the Broncos on Thursday Night Football! (4:00) He tips his cap to Justin Herbert for an elite performance, but also gives kudos to Sean Payton and the Broncos for exceeding expectations this season. He also weighs in on the firestorm he started with his rant about the changes the NBA needs to make in the face of declining TV ratings (12:00)
Chad Millman, host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 16 of the NFL slate plus the College Football Playoff!
23;00- Texans vs Chiefs
25:15 - Steelers vs Ravens
27:45 - 49ers vs Dolphins
29:00 - Colts vs Titans
32:00 - Bears vs Lions
34:30 - Rams vs Jets
36:45 - Packers vs Saints
39:45 - Bills vs Patriots
56:30 - Indiana vs Notre Dame
59:00 - Texas vs Clemson
1:01:30 - Ohio State vs Tennessee
1:04:00 - Transfer portal hurting depth at blue chip programs
1:06:00 - Chad’s Favorite NFL Bets
Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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all right time for an instant reaction. I got to
be honest, I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I've
poured one tonight just for this. Thirty four to twenty
seven chargers went, whoever won. I was happy, although I
did pick the charger, so I'm a little happier, you know.
I've said this is when I started the volume. One
(01:31):
of the things I really really like. When I was
in my twenties and thirties, I was probably just too
selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing,
and I didn't you know, I was unmarried. And then
you get older and older, and you have kids, and
you get married, and you know, over time, you know,
hopefully you have something in you that you want to
see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in
(01:54):
the NFL get the right coach, and Bonix could have gotten,
you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he's
still he is still learning. But in that first half,
that was all on script, those first two or three series,
and bo Nix was great because he's now got his mentor,
(02:14):
he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the
second half it's not on script. That's about talent, and
Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's
just a more talented, experienced quarterback. In the NFL, but
both of these guys, these two teams last year were
thirteen and twenty one. I mean, think about that, and
(02:34):
right now they're eighteen and twelve and both are going
to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one
Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a
PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you
get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in
one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if
you land Giannis or Jokic. It takes years and years
(02:56):
to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball.
I mean, there's just some teams that can afford it, right.
But in the NFL, Houston was a laughing stock, a
bottom three team in the league to meet O'Ryan c J.
Stroud playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the
end of the year they had a team mutiny. They
were one of the three worst teams in the league.
This defense is all the same guys now. The offense
(03:16):
got Joel and Laddi mcconkee, no question upgrades, but they're
so beat up. Now they're using a defensive tackle. Are
the Chargers as one of their skill people, Matt Locke,
give me a break. They're using return guys and Quinton
Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second
half is you know, Joel and Laddi McConkie have obviously helped,
but the Chargers are so beat up on the back
(03:37):
end of their defense, and they're beat up at tight end.
They didn't have Will Disley. You know, they don't have JK. Dobbins,
and you know it's there's still a draft away. They're
about six players away. They needed to tight end another
running back, although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run
of the game. But it just shows you why the
NFL is king. You just either get a coach, get
(03:58):
a quarterback, or Houston get both and you're a playoff team.
And it's just I've always called the NFL the League
of hope. But let's first start with the Chargers. They
were What did al Michaels say tonight? I can't believe
al Michaels is this good at eighty. The guy is
such a talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick,
and he and Herb Street sound like they like each other.
(04:20):
Al Michaels is so good at eighty years old, is insane.
He just signed for next year, by the way, but
you know that he had said at one point the
Chargers were like, oh, for their last eleven and games
decided by three points or less, they just don't know
how to win, you know, they just they just don't
know how to win. And they take this team at
the end of last year, it was a disaster at
the end of the year, could have been the worst
(04:41):
team in the league. Same guys on defense, and in fact,
half the defensive guys in the back end are hurt.
Derwin James is healthy in carrying them, but they're all
banged up, and look at them. And it was such
a testament to Harbaugh's coaching because, I mean, Harbaugh and
Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse
(05:01):
Minter and then Herbert in the second half scrambling on
a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for
a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left,
throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a
Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching, smart adjustments,
(05:22):
Herbert doing what he's doing, It's just it makes me
really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None
of it is his fault. I just feel bad for
the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've
had really you know, I've been very fortunate that I've
landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when
I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's
just so important. I tell my kids this all the time.
(05:42):
It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody
that can mentor you cares about your well being and
you know, in the job market, and they will make
the best out of you. And I feel like that's
what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert, and that's what
Sean Payton's doing to bow Nicks. Both teams are a
draft away, right, but Denver didn't have a ton of depth.
(06:04):
The Chargers need more weapons and a couple of corners.
But in the end of the half sequence was so
perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean,
Jim Harbaugh's competing to the very end. And some people
say he's weird. He's intense Okay, it's the NFL. Belichick
was intense, Dan Campbell's intense, John Payton's intense. So end
(06:24):
of the first half, you know, they get that field goal,
and that's just Harball battling to the end. So there's
a big difference between going in down what they would
have been and then the field goal. You got a
real football game, and trailing eight at half feels a
lot different than trailing by twelve. And I mean that
(06:46):
kind of momentum into the locker room, change the energy
and the juice, and I thought Denver had all the
juice in the first half and the Chargers had all
of the juice with that field goal going into intermission
in the second half, and the Chargers outscored the Broncos
twenty four to six once Hardball called that timeout end
of the first half and got the free kick before halftime,
(07:06):
twenty four to six. Just battling and fighting to the
very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way, Jesus,
and he again he is working with return guys, a
first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman. Back
up running back Herbert in the second half eleven fifteen,
two touchdowns, passer reigning of one forty two point eight Jesus.
(07:31):
I mean, it's just, it is just I just isn't
it crazy? Is that? You know Sean Payton takes this
shipwreck Denver. I think I like their GM, but it's
a mess. They're in dead cap hell in the AFC.
And before the season started, Vegas had them at five
and a half wins, and I thought that, I said
it was my favorite double wind total. I thought they
(07:52):
would double that. I thought they'd get in kind of
the nine eight nine category. They're gonna make the playoffs.
They're in with nine wins now, and they'll they'll win
one of their final three games, and I think they're
capable of winning a playoff game. I don't think Denver's
capable of winning two or three, but I think they're
capable of winning a playoff game. I feel the same
way about the Chargers. They kind of have to win
one way. You know, They've got to have Herbert be superman.
(08:13):
They've got to have everybody healthy. Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh,
Denver and the Chargers those are one playoff win teams.
Herbert finishes the night about when is it twenty three
to thirty one, three hundred yards. It is. It's just
you know, remember a couple of years ago and the media,
(08:35):
you know, the media went through a weird thing where
it was very sensitive. And I remember about three or
four years ago, and the media was just saying, Oh,
these Thursday night games, they're unfair to players. Oh, give
me a break. So I called players, I talked to coaches,
and the players I talked to are like, we love
Thursday night games. Usually it's a division rival, so you
(08:58):
don't have to do a ton of film study. Like tonight,
you're playing somebody you know, and it's usually a division game,
so the travel isn't too long. It's a two hour
flight somewhere, and you don't hit during that week, and
then you get almost a second by week. And the
media was freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had
some sensational Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought
(09:21):
it would be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so
crisp in the first half. Now in the second half, Denver,
I mean, let's face it, they aided the Chargers on
that long drive. They had a couple of guys off
sides that was a huge break. There were two big
moments in the game for me. That the end of
the halftime kick, and then Denver had a series of
(09:41):
penalties as the Chargers got that big drive which eventually
ended up with Herbert making that throw for a touchdown
in the end zone. But they have three or four
defensive penalties and that really gave them. They really seized
momentum and you could hear the crowd a little bit
getting into it, and God, that was just fun. Although
my phone drank, it's probably justin Herbert. I'm sorry to
(10:03):
be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Chad Milman's coming on
for Sharper Square. We're gonna do some college games this
week because I think there's a couple of I have
two college games. I'm betting that I love. Okay, So
a big topic of conversation before I get the Chad
Milman has been the NBA ratings this week, and I
(10:24):
saw JJ Reddick said tonight, you know the league needs
to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited.
Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If
you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items
on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right,
The consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The
(10:48):
players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough.
I mean good. Hell. Adam Silver two years ago said
our players are miserable. Twitter is making the miserable. Can
you imagine a football player saying that, give me a break.
The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited,
(11:10):
It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The
three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice
who talked about the three point shooting? Lebron James was
asked about the All Star game changes and he dropped
an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams
are shooting way too many threes. Lebron James said that
(11:33):
a guy that loves the game. Joe Mizzoula, the coach
of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings
and he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either.
So that's the championship coach and the best player in
the last twenty years criticizing the league from a position
of power, not seeking attention. In fact, Lebron didn't want
(11:53):
to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want
to get too into it. So the people that are
criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not
anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling,
change the menu. Rob Manfred did, and Adam Silver needs
to for the record, when you make changes to your
(12:16):
menu to your business, the consumer always responds. Always. I mean,
baseball was in a fifteen year drought. Rob Manfred made
two changes. The ratings went up the last two years.
This year they went through the roof during the postseason.
People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA.
I tried watching the championship NBA Cup Oklahoma City was
(12:37):
five to thirty two from threes. It was awful. It
was unwatchable. It was drack. So you know, nobody's against
the NBA. People at criticize it, watch it. I watch
it all the time. I don't really get into it
until the football season's done.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
But you know, by.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
February, you know, you have the two weeks before the
Super Bowl. I start watching thirty minutes a night, forty
minutes a night. So I thought it was in interesting
that Joe Missoula and Lebron James both came out and
were critical esthetically of the current product. It's not a
good watch and when something falls off the cliff in
two years, three years, got a look in the mirror.
(13:15):
It's not about celebrating, it's about auditing. That's something baseball
did recently and something the NFL does annually. NFL is
king for a lot of reasons. One of the reasons
the ability to self police, self monitor and course correct. Well,
(13:37):
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Speaker 1 (14:59):
All right for Sharper Square my buddy Chad Millman, co
host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings. You
know listen. The college football games this weekend won't get
the NFL numbers because nothing in the world does. But
there's some heaters, and we'll get to that in about
fifteen minutes. There's some fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry,
it doesn't make any sense because he's been so good.
But if Ryan Day loses home to Tennessee, it's gonna
(15:21):
be a shit storm in Columbus. It's gonna be crazy.
So we'll get to that in fifteen minutes. Let's do
Sharper Square. I've had a terrible year. I've had my
worst year ever doing this, and I don't really know.
I don't want to outthink the room. I'm about fifty
five percent every year. I'm not a pro gambler, but
I think I'm, you know, in the ballpark. I've been
terrible this year, and I can't you know. I think
a lot of it is I've always liked value and underdogs,
(15:45):
and it just weeked to week. Some weeks I go dogs,
favorites win, some week I go favorites. So I'm just
going to give you my thought on this. The Chiefs
are now three and a half point favorites. It's more
stay away now, But when it was two and a
half with Carson Wentz potentially playing, I love Kansas City.
I think Carson Wentz for a week is fine for
(16:08):
a season. You can't trust his health. So I would
imagine at three and a half, the Sharps like the Texans.
But if so, I like the two and a half,
them three Kansas City. Now if I say I like
Kansas City, is it square?
Speaker 3 (16:24):
Totally square? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (16:25):
The wise guys are playing the three and a half
because up until last weekend, anytime you're betting on Patrick
Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, you're making
a negative ROI bet he just has not won as
a favorite of more than three. Last weekend, obviously he did.
(16:46):
They were four and a half point favorites.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
They covered.
Speaker 4 (16:49):
But even in that game, you saw the pressure getting
to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because
Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that
were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his
thirty yard line, so killing two drafts. Plus they had
three other turnovers, including to open the game. You look
(17:09):
at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right,
and so that game was closer statistically than you would
imagine by the score itself. So there is going to
be a sentiment you take the Texans at plus three
and a half.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
At two and a.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
Half, one hundred percent people were still taking the Chiefs.
That's why the number got all the way up to
three and a half.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Yeah. So a prime example, the Steelers get beat and
pretty soundy by Philadelphia. But what's lost in that game
is they had eighty yards in the first half and
only trailed seventeen thirteen in Philly. If Najee Harris doesn't fumble,
we got ourselves a football game. Yes, to give the
Steelers six and a half ate, You know what the
Ravens are. They got They're the Mike Tyson. They crossed
(17:56):
their bullies first round knockouts against bad teams. You push
them back, you make them think Baltimore can get beat
by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin
is a six and a half point underdog. So I
this to me is the steal of the week. Pittsburgh
(18:17):
plus six and a half in Baltimore sharper square.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
Wise, guys love this bet, and it's almost become a
blind bet in this series. Wise guys like Mike Tomlin
as an underdog. Anyways, and you're right that game, Najee Harris.
The Steelers were outplayed and in the middle of the
third time in the.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Game, fumble the ball.
Speaker 4 (18:36):
If he doesn't fumble the ball, they're on the sixteen
yard line. They're at least kicking a field goal to
make it a twenty sixteen game, or they're scoring a
touchdown to make it twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Changes the game, right.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Mike Tomlin, Mike Tomlin and Rob Ross spots any way
you slice and dice it. Mike Tomlin as an underdog
is the best coaching a generation against the spread. He
is be coach in a generation winning straight up as
an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog of
(19:09):
three or more versus the Ravens, he is six and
oh straight up. There is six and oh against the spread.
He's thirteen two and two against spread versus Harbaugh when
the line in this series is three or more points
the past twenty years, so it's the Harbaugh Tomlin rain.
The underdog is twenty three four and three against the
spread since twenty fifteen, underdogs sixteen into sixteen to two
(19:33):
and one against the spread. So like, yeah that there
are times where you're nervous about playing into these trends
and We talked about this on the show last week,
betting the Steelers fading the Chiefs. Those were times we
were nervous, like it happens six times out of ten.
This time it's happening eight times out of ten. So yeah,
(19:56):
you're playing the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
I like the forty nine or plus one at the Dolphins.
I think one of the things that's become pretty clear
with the Dolphins is if they're not playing an oppressive
humidity at home, they get pushed around by more physical teams.
I think they're the ultimate finesse team in this league.
And you know, as I watch them against Houston, it's
just bubble screens. That's all they do. Two is now
(20:19):
throwing forty times a game. That's way too much for
two of the teams, like the Packers and the Eagles
have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw twenty
four times a game. I think the forty nine Ers,
I think it comes down to pride. For brock Purty,
it comes down to a contract. I like the forty
nine ers here sharper square.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Sharp ish, like the line opened one and a half.
It's been beat down obviously from one and a half
to one for a minute, very hot minute, the Niners
were favorites, and then it sort of bounced back a
little bit. But that money that's moving, it is professional
money in favor of the Niners.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
Not a huge sort of feeling on that game.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
They just sort of think that the Niners are probably
a more physical team.
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Are they getting more healthy? They don't.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
They don't believe in the Dolphins is the bigger, bigger
component of their thinking.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Okay, the Colts were dominating the Broncos until Jonathan Taylor,
and it was a blowout. They go home now and
have to swallow three and a half. But the Titans
are they have Benchwill Levis. I was texting a GM
(21:34):
this week and I said, I think if you gave
Sam Darnold to the Colts, they have the Viking season.
I like their personnel. I mean, I haven't seen anybody
this year, including the Chiefs, push the Broncos around, especially
in Denver. I mean it was a mismatch. Three picks
for bo Nicks. I think Indy, I don't care what
(21:55):
the line is. I think they're going to come back.
I think they're I think Chris Spallard's jobs on the line.
Anthony Richardson's careers on the line. Shane Stikeen with that
trick play that got a pick six, I think Indy
is inflamed and I think they blow the Titans out
sharper square.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
So the wise guys are on Tennessee. This line was
at four and a half even when Will Levis was
possibly the quarterback. It's been bet down immediately with Mason
Rudolph as the quarterback. The wise guys have liked the
Titans a lot this year. They've also liked the Colts
this year. Their biggest fear is betting Anthony Richardson right
(22:38):
as a favorite. Like if you want to talk about comps,
the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage right now,
Tim Tebow and Achille Smith in the past twenty five years,
this season will go down as one of the worst
in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing.
(23:01):
And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched,
he came back and he looked like he was a
little bit more in control. They were putting him in
better positions. He was just awful against the Broncos. They
were winning that game in spite of him and look
like I was on the Colts last week. Jonathan Taylor
(23:23):
dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the
Steelers last week, Nigee Harris dropping that ball, and this
was all happening. If you're watching Red Zone, this is
like boom boom boom. It was just like gut punch
after gut punch after gut punch. As a better but
you felt like and I felt like Colts had no
(23:44):
chance to get back into that game after they gave
up the lead because Anthony and Richardson can't win you
a game, so they're going to have to dominate on
the ground in order to cover this three and a half.
And at the end of the day, he got to
win by four points. That's a relatively big number and
of what should be a run heavy game in which
(24:05):
the clock is running a lot. So I think the
wise guys are still liking Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
In the hook.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Part of me says, I should love the Bears at
home plus six and a half against Detroit Jared Goff
outside bad Weather, I defended Caleb Williams this week. He
has more touchdown passes than Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray
more passing yards than Jalen Hurts and hasn't had an
interception since Halloween. Is that if you just look at
the record, you would think he's awful, and it's like, no, actually,
(24:35):
all things considered now that he's with the third coach
at home Detroit, defensively, I mean it's bad.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
It is.
Speaker 1 (24:46):
I mean eight nine yards a chunk. I think I
like Chicago at home plus six and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
Well, look, the wise guys like Chicago at home when
it was at seven and a half and seven, and
this is one hundred percent a number play. You're not
going to find anyone taking it at six and a half.
If you're taking it at six and a half, We've
talked about this, you're just not getting the best of
the number. And long term, that's a bad way to
(25:15):
try to win games. You might win once in a while,
but long term you want to be on the right
side of the number. So the wise guys took the
seven and a half, they took the seven. I think
this is a really tricky game at six and a half.
Is a home dog in the division, of course, I
want to be on the Bears. I can't find a
(25:36):
way to get there. I'm not saying I'm going to
bet Detroit, but there's two schools of thought on Jared Goff.
Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors is unbeatable.
Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole. But
he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends to
(25:56):
not when he is outside, and he is a covering
machine over the past five years. I look at this
in a different way. Sure their defense is beat up,
but all they have to do is hand the ball
to Jamiir Gibbs, because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious,
like Putrid. They are giving up one hundred yards every
(26:18):
single game no matter who they play. Saw it again
last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit
is going to come out in a bad mood and
try to prove that they're still the class of the NFC.
Run the ball down the Bear's throat, and it doesn't
really matter what Kayleb Williams does or what the weather is,
they might dominate this game. So I can't I can't
(26:38):
tell you at six and a half, you're making a
good call.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
Okay, Rams is now only minus three. I would take
them against the Jets. It was three and a half.
I think the Jets played the last two weeks. DeVante
Adams and Aaron Rodgers, you know, have clicked. But the
Rams are playing for the playoffs and the Jets are
playing for pride. I mean, between the documentary between Garrett
(27:06):
Wilson wanting a trade the story about Woody Johnson's kids,
this has been a messy week for the Jets. I
can gladly swallow the three for a much better team
and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three sharper square.
Speaker 4 (27:22):
I mean, why look, wise guys have been on the
Jets all week. The wise guys have been on the
Jets for much of the year, and, much to their dismay,
jeff Olbrick, the coach, seems to find ways to play
them out of wins and covers and then make the
stupidest mistakes that actually leads them into a cover that
(27:44):
they never should have covered. Right last week, he's going
for the touchdown with a minute left when the Jacks
have two timeouts. They end up covering the three point spread,
winning by six, when really he should have kneeled down
and left no time and kicked a field goal week before,
make bad decisions at the end of the game. They
end up losing the game to the Dolphins and not
even covering the three point spread because they lose by
(28:06):
six in overtime. So he's a menace when it comes
to clock management, and he's a menace for betters. But
the wise guys do love the Jets right now. Aaron
Rodgers has been playing significantly better the past two weeks.
You could argue, well, the old man went to Florida,
and when you're old and you're in Florida, you're gonna
feel better. And now he's got to come back and
(28:26):
play in the cold in New Jersey. But there is
something about the Rams and the fact that they have
to go into the cold too. Stafford does not perform
as well then. And also, this is a team you
get late in the year. You get teams that are
what I like to call good ish, right fifty to
(28:47):
sixty percent in terms of winning percentage, and they're playing
bad teams on the road. That is a recipe for
disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying they're
going to lose, but those games tend to be closer.
So the wise guys are definitely back of the Jets
this week.
Speaker 1 (29:02):
Okay, I'm not prone to do this, but green Bay
minus fourteen against the Saints just screams Take the Packers.
I thought their win at Seattle was so impressive because
I do think Seattle has excellent defensive coaching. This has
been a year of the favorites. I think the most
(29:23):
underrated player in the league is Jordan Love. I think
he's a magnificent talent. I think the Saints feel like
a dead franchise. I think green Bay still has a chance.
They really believe it. I think they're a better team
this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like
fourteen point favorites, but they're covering, and favorites are covering,
(29:47):
and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy
team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is
one of the few places where home field is still
three to three and a half points. Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (30:01):
Well, look, you're never gonna get sharp confirmation on a
fourteen point favorite. There are two fourteen point favorites this week,
the Packers over the Saints, the Bills over the Patriots.
There's been more of the conversation around the Bills as
fourteen point favorites. That line actually ticked up to fourteen
(30:24):
and a half, and that was very much professionals betting
on the Bills at fourteen. Then it came down then
to some professionals, not a whole lot of them, but
a couple of them were like, yeah, that's what, like
half a point too far? The Packers like, sure, there's
nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints,
(30:45):
but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
Everything you just said, everyone agrees with it. It's why.
Speaker 4 (30:51):
Actually, the wise guys were on the Packers last week
against the Seahawks. That was my favorite. Yeah, yeah, mine too.
So you only bet I won last week and so
they were on him at two and a half. That
was a great spot for the Packers, right, They had
just lost a really hard game to the Lions, and
I think that game gave them the confidence that you
(31:13):
just talked about. You saw the mastery with which Lafour
calls a game. Jordan Love has been much more cautious
with the ball, hasn't been throwing interceptions. I think the
Packers believe they are in the same class as the
Vikings and the Lions and the Eagles, and I'd be
hard pressed to disagree. I think it's harder to win
(31:35):
as two touchdown favorites against a Saints team that like
from a wise guy perspective, they just don't like this
game as much as they would like the Bills and
the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like
the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting
to you.
Speaker 1 (31:53):
Yeah. Please.
Speaker 3 (31:55):
So this is the win Josh Allen MVP game. Right.
Speaker 4 (32:02):
There's talk this week because Lamar Jackson threw five touchdowns
against the Giants that maybe he should be MVP, and
you saw the MVP odds shrink a little bit. The
Bills tend to blow these teams out anyways, right, they
are a team that has a winning record as big
favorites in these games in the division outside the division
(32:26):
at home, they they don't play down to the level
of their competition. Their offense can do whatever it wants
against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early, their
record against the spread it's like seven and twenty one
the past two years, like they are a terrible team.
(32:46):
They cannot recover. So If the Bills get out to
lead early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot.
The one concern is, you know, the Bill's secondary has
a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about
the Patriots offense. They got Drake may who's slinging it
and trying his best. But right now Gerrod Mayo was
(33:07):
throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense.
There's just a lot of turmoil there. So the wise guys,
if they're betting a big favorite, they're more inclined to
bet the Bills than the Packers.
Speaker 1 (33:21):
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All right, I want to talk some college football now
because I think I do think Indiana Notre Dame a
lot of its weather. I think it's going to be
(34:03):
pretty close. I think Notre Dame is a great run team.
Indiana is a kind of a peculiar unique run defense.
I think really good coaches with time can employ, you know,
competitive strategies. We know that Ohio State in Columbus on
a nice day to play football is better significantly. Notre
(34:24):
Dame doesn't have Ohio State's talent, and I also think
Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre
Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They
just played down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling,
and I think Indiana is going to So I really
like Indiana plus seven. How do the wise guys view it?
Speaker 4 (34:44):
Yeah, look the numbers come down because wise guys are
betting Indiana and Indiana's look.
Speaker 3 (34:51):
Been a covering machine this year.
Speaker 4 (34:53):
Yes, obviously that Ohio State game was the biggest challenge.
They also didn't cover against Michigan, but that was at
a time when Michigan was starting to get better. And
the next week they went on and they beat Ohio State.
So that was a much more physical game. Ohio State.
Indiana had some bad plays and they were outclassed, and
you could see the talent difference.
Speaker 3 (35:15):
I'm with you. The wise guys are with you, and the way.
Speaker 4 (35:19):
Indiana matches up a little bit better with Notre Dame
and the time and look, you can't help but listen
to Kurt Signetti and know that he's playing this game
and has got his players playing this game with a
huge chip on their shoulder.
Speaker 3 (35:36):
And we've talked about this.
Speaker 4 (35:39):
One of the reasons Indiana won this year and why
it was able to achieve when other teams that are
leaning into the portal weren't able to achieve, is because
they brought in grown up college football players. They didn't
bring in five star recruits who are going to be
there for a year and go to the NFL. They
(35:59):
bought it guys who are just really good at college football.
And this is a great college football game. And there
is a nuanced difference when I say a college football game. Here,
that's the style of game this is going to be.
It's going to be physical, it's going to be about execution.
It's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes,
but the people who do their jobs the best, So
(36:20):
I love this game for Indiana.
Speaker 1 (36:22):
I like the under on Clemson Texas, mostly not because
Texas is going to score a ton. I don't think
Clemson can score much on Texas. I'm gonna take Texas
minus twelve. I really feel it has a chance to
be thirty to ten. I think the Texas defense is sensational,
and I think the Clemson offense it's almost like that
(36:43):
SMU game felt like their bowl game. I think both
SMU and Clemson are going to get totally outclassed in
their bowl games. I like the under, but I'm going
to take Texas minus twelve. I think this Remember Clemson
doesn't go to the transfer portal, they have ols app,
Texas out recruits them and goes to the transfer portal.
(37:04):
And also Texas's offense over the last three weeks, I
don't think they'll pause. If quin your struggles, I think
they'll go to Arts Manning. I don't think they'll pause
going forward. I like Texas to roll here, sharper square.
Speaker 4 (37:18):
Totally sharp, like if you're looking I'm looking in the
action app right now. It's just checking it out and
you can see in the app you can see the
betting tickets, and you can see the money percentages on
each side, and betting tickets is usually an indication of
the public. That's the squares who are betting ten dollars
(37:40):
twenty dollars, and there's a lot of volume of tickets.
Money usually represents where the wise guys are. So the
tickets right now are on Clemson, the money is on Texas,
And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree
with you. That defense they have is just fear like
(38:01):
they did a job on Georgia. And if Texas's offense
could execute a little bit better, then we wouldn't be
having this conversation about who's the who is the SEC
champion would have been Texas. So like, that defense is
so freaking good, and it's a veteran defense. Again, we're
(38:21):
talking about like guys who had been playing college football
for a while, and I think that's an advantage here.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
So the game, I'm gonna ask you to handicap. I
don't get the line. So the line is telling me
Ohio State's gonna win because it hasn't moved much. So
Tennessee's defensive line is significantly better than Ohio State's offensive line,
meaning Ohio State's gonna have to throw and it may
(38:49):
only be fifteen degrees, but this line is telling me
that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State has pissed
and Ryan Day's jobs on the line line and Josh
Heipels isn't and it's in Columbus and it is a
warm weather SEC team. So the line is telling me
that Ohio State's going to win this comfortably. That's what
(39:11):
it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and
a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this.
I mean, Tennessee is the best rushing team in the SEC.
Going into cold weather. It just screams to you, low scoring,
take the points. But the line's not moving, and that
tells me the Sharps like Ohio State, do they.
Speaker 4 (39:28):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, it's settled in where it's at, right,
and that is because it's been It's kind of the
advantages is not for Tennessee because of some of these
situations that you just talked about, And there is some
(39:48):
feeling that this is such a desperate spot for Ryan Day.
It's been seven and a half almost since it opened.
It was at six and a half for about thirty seconds.
These guys took the six and a half. They bet
Tennessee at six and a half, right, But there was
so much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that
(40:10):
it moved up. So Ryan Day is in a spot.
And we've talked about this. There was a story in
the Wall Street Journal today about Ohio State fans people
calling in to local radio about Max Crosby, who the Lions,
the Raiders defensive lineman who's out for the year. On
(40:31):
his podcast, he's a massive Ohio State fan, talking about how.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
He wants the team to lose so they get rid
of Ryan Day.
Speaker 4 (40:38):
That is a weird thing to be talking about when
you've got a coach who has.
Speaker 3 (40:44):
Won as much as he has.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
But I think you and I agree every game for
him is going to be a must win game. And
unless they win the championship or they get there and
they are so dominant, and he puts himself in a
position even if they lose, it's a way to rebuild
the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program. And he
(41:06):
hasn't beaten him and they haven't gotten over it.
Speaker 1 (41:08):
You know. I think sometimes one of the things I
love about sports is when there's cultural changes. I like
to be I like to predict what they are. I
love the theories and my systems on like what's changing.
So something's happening in college football, and college football fans
don't yet know it. So in the NFL, it's almost
(41:29):
understood that you've got to give a staff a couple
of years, right, Like, there's just it's just really hard.
The margins are thin. Well, I think the Ohio States
and the Georgia's and the Texas fans, you know, you've
always been able to line up and just beat teams.
And one of the reasons is over a long season
is your backups were as good as their starters. And
(41:50):
football's regulated level levels of violence. So there's college and pro.
There's injuries, but the transfer portal and NIL has eliminated
depth at the blue bloods Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when
you do suffer injuries and the season is now longer
than ever, your backups are produced starters, that's all they are.
(42:12):
And so these Ohio States and these big Notre Dame,
these big traditional powers, as the season goes on, I mean,
look at look at our twelve team playoff. Arizona States
in it, SMUs in it, Boise States in it like,
and these these are live dogs like and so I
don't think quite college football fans understand. Not only are
(42:34):
players getting paid that it looks more like pro football,
but your backup stink just like pro football. Detroit's defense
now has six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it
was excellent. And so what and what creates that the
salary cap? You have bad backups in the NFL? Nobody
(42:55):
has depth in the NFL. You eat it like Philadelphia's
got great frontline starters. AJ Brown's out. It's not the
same offense. Right, Saquon Barkley's out, it's not the same offense.
We've almost understood that in pro football you need your starters.
And when you get injury plagued Buffalo Detroit's defense, you're like,
what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't
(43:15):
have good college That was never the point. Top ten
teams just had better backups. I mean, eighty five scholarships
allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're
Ohio State, now they have two. One gets hurt, you
move a guard to left tackle. They're all lime stakes
it's Iowa at best.
Speaker 4 (43:33):
So you're you're totally right. That's an on the field problem.
But culturally, for fandom, yeah, the beauty of college football,
it's always been Michigan Ohio State rivalry weekend. You know,
Alabama Tennessee or Alabama Auburn. You know these games they
(43:58):
had so much meaning because there was a lot on
the line.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
You couldn't lose that game.
Speaker 4 (44:05):
I think what Ohio State is struggling with and what
a lot of schools will struggle with in the future,
is you focus so much on that one rivalry game
and that's all you care about. Because college football has
always been so provincial. Now it's a national game. The
SEC is spread out all over, The Big Ten is
(44:25):
literally nationwide. These are the only two conferences that really
kind of matter. And so the provincial, local rivalries that
college fan bases have built their mindset on, have built
their self worth on, have built.
Speaker 3 (44:41):
Their fandom on.
Speaker 4 (44:43):
They need to move on from those really meeting anything
because they kind of don't. If Io State loses to
Michigan for the next ten years, but they win the
national title in five of those years, is that going
to be better or worse as a fan. They need
to come to grips with a new reality of what
these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture,
(45:05):
because they used to mean everything.
Speaker 3 (45:07):
It wasn't just about beating Michigan.
Speaker 4 (45:09):
It was about beating Michigan and what it meant for
winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl,
or what it meant for winning the Big Ten and
then being in the College Football Playoff or winning the
BCS and getting a better rating.
Speaker 3 (45:21):
Those things don't matter anymore.
Speaker 4 (45:23):
So the rivalries and the expectations for what these rivalries
mean need to be adjusted. I also think it's just
going to diminish the value of those games for fans.
My kid, he's going to be in college next year.
He's gotten into Indiana, he got into Penn State, wherever
he decides to go. Are the rivalries for those schools
(45:44):
going to mean as much to him twenty years from
now as they do to me and my friends who
also went to Indiana.
Speaker 3 (45:48):
Probably not.
Speaker 1 (45:50):
Do you have an NFL bet this weekend that you
would label your favorite.
Speaker 4 (45:57):
Well, look, I middled Kansas City. I bet Kansas City
plus two and a half on Sunday night, and then no,
it was plus two and a half on Monday morning.
I'm sorry when the news about what was happening with
Holmes was still unclear. The Chiefs were two and a
half point underdogs, so I bet them two and a half.
And then when it became clear that he was going
(46:19):
to be playing. This was yesterday afternoon, the game got
up to three and a half. I bet the Texans
at plus three and a half, So the majority of
my money is trying to get that middle right. But
I also bet the Jets three and a half. That's
one that I like. I really like the Steelers at
six and a half. So if I like, I'll put
(46:42):
in my five favorite picks. The Steelers will be in there.
The Jets will definitely be in there. Dallas I bet
at four and a half. I like Dallas a lot
against Tampa. I think there's a lot of inflation this week,
and I think that's one of the bigger games where
Dallas has been playing better. Like the last three weeks,
(47:04):
last four weeks, that Cincinnati game kind of looks like
a fluke, right. They lost that game, They've won the
three other games. Micah Parsons has seven and a half
sacks since he's back Deron Bland is back in the secondary.
That defense is getting a lot better. Cooper Rush at
Home Controlled Environment. Tampa Bay just put up forty on
(47:25):
the chargers that inflated that line a little bit.
Speaker 1 (47:28):
So.
Speaker 3 (47:29):
Dallas is another one that I'm I'm paying attention to.
Speaker 1 (47:33):
Chad Millman Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (47:35):
I love it, buddy, Great to chat with your buddy.
Speaker 1 (47:40):
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(01:11):
all right time for an instant reaction. I got to
be honest, I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I've
poured one tonight just for this. Thirty four to twenty
seven chargers went, whoever won. I was happy, although I
did pick the charger, so I'm a little happier, you know.
I've said this is when I started the volume. One
(01:31):
of the things I really really like. When I was
in my twenties and thirties, I was probably just too
selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing,
and I didn't you know, I was unmarried. And then
you get older and older, and you have kids, and
you get married, and you know, over time, you know,
hopefully you have something in you that you want to
see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in
(01:54):
the NFL get the right coach, and Bonix could have gotten,
you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he's
still he is still learning. But in that first half,
that was all on script, those first two or three series,
and bo Nix was great because he's now got his mentor,
(02:14):
he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the
second half it's not on script. That's about talent, and
Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's
just a more talented, experienced quarterback. In the NFL, but
both of these guys, these two teams last year were
thirteen and twenty one. I mean, think about that, and
(02:34):
right now they're eighteen and twelve and both are going
to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one
Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a
PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you
get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in
one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if
you land Giannis or Jokic. It takes years and years
(02:56):
to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball.
I mean, there's just some teams that can afford it, right.
But in the NFL, Houston was a laughing stock, a
bottom three team in the league to meet O'Ryan c J.
Stroud playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the
end of the year they had a team mutiny. They
were one of the three worst teams in the league.
This defense is all the same guys now. The offense
(03:16):
got Joel and Laddi mcconkee, no question upgrades, but they're
so beat up. Now they're using a defensive tackle. Are
the Chargers as one of their skill people, Matt Locke,
give me a break. They're using return guys and Quinton
Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second
half is you know, Joel and Laddi McConkie have obviously helped,
but the Chargers are so beat up on the back
(03:37):
end of their defense, and they're beat up at tight end.
They didn't have Will Disley. You know, they don't have JK. Dobbins,
and you know it's there's still a draft away. They're
about six players away. They needed to tight end another
running back, although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run
of the game. But it just shows you why the
NFL is king. You just either get a coach, get
(03:58):
a quarterback, or Houston get both and you're a playoff team.
And it's just I've always called the NFL the League
of hope. But let's first start with the Chargers. They
were What did al Michaels say tonight? I can't believe
al Michaels is this good at eighty. The guy is
such a talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick,
and he and Herb Street sound like they like each other.
(04:20):
Al Michaels is so good at eighty years old, is insane.
He just signed for next year, by the way, but
you know that he had said at one point the
Chargers were like, oh, for their last eleven and games
decided by three points or less, they just don't know
how to win, you know, they just they just don't
know how to win. And they take this team at
the end of last year, it was a disaster at
the end of the year, could have been the worst
(04:41):
team in the league. Same guys on defense, and in fact,
half the defensive guys in the back end are hurt.
Derwin James is healthy in carrying them, but they're all
banged up, and look at them. And it was such
a testament to Harbaugh's coaching because, I mean, Harbaugh and
Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse
(05:01):
Minter and then Herbert in the second half scrambling on
a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for
a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left,
throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a
Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching, smart adjustments,
(05:22):
Herbert doing what he's doing, It's just it makes me
really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None
of it is his fault. I just feel bad for
the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've
had really you know, I've been very fortunate that I've
landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when
I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's
just so important. I tell my kids this all the time.
(05:42):
It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody
that can mentor you cares about your well being and
you know, in the job market, and they will make
the best out of you. And I feel like that's
what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert, and that's what
Sean Payton's doing to bow Nicks. Both teams are a
draft away, right, but Denver didn't have a ton of depth.
(06:04):
The Chargers need more weapons and a couple of corners.
But in the end of the half sequence was so
perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean,
Jim Harbaugh's competing to the very end. And some people
say he's weird. He's intense Okay, it's the NFL. Belichick
was intense, Dan Campbell's intense, John Payton's intense. So end
(06:24):
of the first half, you know, they get that field goal,
and that's just Harball battling to the end. So there's
a big difference between going in down what they would
have been and then the field goal. You got a
real football game, and trailing eight at half feels a
lot different than trailing by twelve. And I mean that
(06:46):
kind of momentum into the locker room, change the energy
and the juice, and I thought Denver had all the
juice in the first half and the Chargers had all
of the juice with that field goal going into intermission
in the second half, and the Chargers outscored the Broncos
twenty four to six once Hardball called that timeout end
of the first half and got the free kick before halftime,
(07:06):
twenty four to six. Just battling and fighting to the
very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way, Jesus,
and he again he is working with return guys, a
first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman. Back
up running back Herbert in the second half eleven fifteen,
two touchdowns, passer reigning of one forty two point eight Jesus.
(07:31):
I mean, it's just, it is just I just isn't
it crazy? Is that? You know Sean Payton takes this
shipwreck Denver. I think I like their GM, but it's
a mess. They're in dead cap hell in the AFC.
And before the season started, Vegas had them at five
and a half wins, and I thought that, I said
it was my favorite double wind total. I thought they
(07:52):
would double that. I thought they'd get in kind of
the nine eight nine category. They're gonna make the playoffs.
They're in with nine wins now, and they'll they'll win
one of their final three games, and I think they're
capable of winning a playoff game. I don't think Denver's
capable of winning two or three, but I think they're
capable of winning a playoff game. I feel the same
way about the Chargers. They kind of have to win
one way. You know, They've got to have Herbert be superman.
(08:13):
They've got to have everybody healthy. Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh,
Denver and the Chargers those are one playoff win teams.
Herbert finishes the night about when is it twenty three
to thirty one, three hundred yards. It is. It's just
you know, remember a couple of years ago and the media,
(08:35):
you know, the media went through a weird thing where
it was very sensitive. And I remember about three or
four years ago, and the media was just saying, Oh,
these Thursday night games, they're unfair to players. Oh, give
me a break. So I called players, I talked to coaches,
and the players I talked to are like, we love
Thursday night games. Usually it's a division rival, so you
(08:58):
don't have to do a ton of film study. Like tonight,
you're playing somebody you know, and it's usually a division game,
so the travel isn't too long. It's a two hour
flight somewhere, and you don't hit during that week, and
then you get almost a second by week. And the
media was freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had
some sensational Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought
(09:21):
it would be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so
crisp in the first half. Now in the second half, Denver,
I mean, let's face it, they aided the Chargers on
that long drive. They had a couple of guys off
sides that was a huge break. There were two big
moments in the game for me. That the end of
the halftime kick, and then Denver had a series of
(09:41):
penalties as the Chargers got that big drive which eventually
ended up with Herbert making that throw for a touchdown
in the end zone. But they have three or four
defensive penalties and that really gave them. They really seized
momentum and you could hear the crowd a little bit
getting into it, and God, that was just fun. Although
my phone drank, it's probably justin Herbert. I'm sorry to
(10:03):
be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Chad Milman's coming on
for Sharper Square. We're gonna do some college games this
week because I think there's a couple of I have
two college games. I'm betting that I love. Okay, So
a big topic of conversation before I get the Chad
Milman has been the NBA ratings this week, and I
(10:24):
saw JJ Reddick said tonight, you know the league needs
to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited.
Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If
you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items
on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right,
The consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The
(10:48):
players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough.
I mean good. Hell. Adam Silver two years ago said
our players are miserable. Twitter is making the miserable. Can
you imagine a football player saying that, give me a break.
The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited,
(11:10):
It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The
three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice
who talked about the three point shooting? Lebron James was
asked about the All Star game changes and he dropped
an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams
are shooting way too many threes. Lebron James said that
(11:33):
a guy that loves the game. Joe Mizzoula, the coach
of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings
and he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either.
So that's the championship coach and the best player in
the last twenty years criticizing the league from a position
of power, not seeking attention. In fact, Lebron didn't want
(11:53):
to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want
to get too into it. So the people that are
criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not
anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling,
change the menu. Rob Manfred did, and Adam Silver needs
to for the record, when you make changes to your
(12:16):
menu to your business, the consumer always responds. Always. I mean,
baseball was in a fifteen year drought. Rob Manfred made
two changes. The ratings went up the last two years.
This year they went through the roof during the postseason.
People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA.
I tried watching the championship NBA Cup Oklahoma City was
(12:37):
five to thirty two from threes. It was awful. It
was unwatchable. It was drack. So you know, nobody's against
the NBA. People at criticize it, watch it. I watch
it all the time. I don't really get into it
until the football season's done.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
But you know, by.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
February, you know, you have the two weeks before the
Super Bowl. I start watching thirty minutes a night, forty
minutes a night. So I thought it was in interesting
that Joe Missoula and Lebron James both came out and
were critical esthetically of the current product. It's not a
good watch and when something falls off the cliff in
two years, three years, got a look in the mirror.
(13:15):
It's not about celebrating, it's about auditing. That's something baseball
did recently and something the NFL does annually. NFL is
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Speaker 1 (14:59):
All right for Sharper Square my buddy Chad Millman, co
host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings. You
know listen. The college football games this weekend won't get
the NFL numbers because nothing in the world does. But
there's some heaters, and we'll get to that in about
fifteen minutes. There's some fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry,
it doesn't make any sense because he's been so good.
But if Ryan Day loses home to Tennessee, it's gonna
(15:21):
be a shit storm in Columbus. It's gonna be crazy.
So we'll get to that in fifteen minutes. Let's do
Sharper Square. I've had a terrible year. I've had my
worst year ever doing this, and I don't really know.
I don't want to outthink the room. I'm about fifty
five percent every year. I'm not a pro gambler, but
I think I'm, you know, in the ballpark. I've been
terrible this year, and I can't you know. I think
a lot of it is I've always liked value and underdogs,
(15:45):
and it just weeked to week. Some weeks I go dogs,
favorites win, some week I go favorites. So I'm just
going to give you my thought on this. The Chiefs
are now three and a half point favorites. It's more
stay away now, But when it was two and a
half with Carson Wentz potentially playing, I love Kansas City.
I think Carson Wentz for a week is fine for
(16:08):
a season. You can't trust his health. So I would
imagine at three and a half, the Sharps like the Texans.
But if so, I like the two and a half,
them three Kansas City. Now if I say I like
Kansas City, is it square?
Speaker 3 (16:24):
Totally square? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (16:25):
The wise guys are playing the three and a half
because up until last weekend, anytime you're betting on Patrick
Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, you're making
a negative ROI bet he just has not won as
a favorite of more than three. Last weekend, obviously he did.
(16:46):
They were four and a half point favorites.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
They covered.
Speaker 4 (16:49):
But even in that game, you saw the pressure getting
to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because
Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that
were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his
thirty yard line, so killing two drafts. Plus they had
three other turnovers, including to open the game. You look
(17:09):
at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right,
and so that game was closer statistically than you would
imagine by the score itself. So there is going to
be a sentiment you take the Texans at plus three
and a half.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
At two and a.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
Half, one hundred percent people were still taking the Chiefs.
That's why the number got all the way up to
three and a half.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Yeah. So a prime example, the Steelers get beat and
pretty soundy by Philadelphia. But what's lost in that game
is they had eighty yards in the first half and
only trailed seventeen thirteen in Philly. If Najee Harris doesn't fumble,
we got ourselves a football game. Yes, to give the
Steelers six and a half ate, You know what the
Ravens are. They got They're the Mike Tyson. They crossed
(17:56):
their bullies first round knockouts against bad teams. You push
them back, you make them think Baltimore can get beat
by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin
is a six and a half point underdog. So I
this to me is the steal of the week. Pittsburgh
(18:17):
plus six and a half in Baltimore sharper square.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
Wise, guys love this bet, and it's almost become a
blind bet in this series. Wise guys like Mike Tomlin
as an underdog. Anyways, and you're right that game, Najee Harris.
The Steelers were outplayed and in the middle of the
third time in the.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Game, fumble the ball.
Speaker 4 (18:36):
If he doesn't fumble the ball, they're on the sixteen
yard line. They're at least kicking a field goal to
make it a twenty sixteen game, or they're scoring a
touchdown to make it twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Changes the game, right.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Mike Tomlin, Mike Tomlin and Rob Ross spots any way
you slice and dice it. Mike Tomlin as an underdog
is the best coaching a generation against the spread. He
is be coach in a generation winning straight up as
an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog of
(19:09):
three or more versus the Ravens, he is six and
oh straight up. There is six and oh against the spread.
He's thirteen two and two against spread versus Harbaugh when
the line in this series is three or more points
the past twenty years, so it's the Harbaugh Tomlin rain.
The underdog is twenty three four and three against the
spread since twenty fifteen, underdogs sixteen into sixteen to two
(19:33):
and one against the spread. So like, yeah that there
are times where you're nervous about playing into these trends
and We talked about this on the show last week,
betting the Steelers fading the Chiefs. Those were times we
were nervous, like it happens six times out of ten.
This time it's happening eight times out of ten. So yeah,
(19:56):
you're playing the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
I like the forty nine or plus one at the Dolphins.
I think one of the things that's become pretty clear
with the Dolphins is if they're not playing an oppressive
humidity at home, they get pushed around by more physical teams.
I think they're the ultimate finesse team in this league.
And you know, as I watch them against Houston, it's
just bubble screens. That's all they do. Two is now
(20:19):
throwing forty times a game. That's way too much for
two of the teams, like the Packers and the Eagles
have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw twenty
four times a game. I think the forty nine Ers,
I think it comes down to pride. For brock Purty,
it comes down to a contract. I like the forty
nine ers here sharper square.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Sharp ish, like the line opened one and a half.
It's been beat down obviously from one and a half
to one for a minute, very hot minute, the Niners
were favorites, and then it sort of bounced back a
little bit. But that money that's moving, it is professional
money in favor of the Niners.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
Not a huge sort of feeling on that game.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
They just sort of think that the Niners are probably
a more physical team.
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Are they getting more healthy? They don't.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
They don't believe in the Dolphins is the bigger, bigger
component of their thinking.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Okay, the Colts were dominating the Broncos until Jonathan Taylor,
and it was a blowout. They go home now and
have to swallow three and a half. But the Titans
are they have Benchwill Levis. I was texting a GM
(21:34):
this week and I said, I think if you gave
Sam Darnold to the Colts, they have the Viking season.
I like their personnel. I mean, I haven't seen anybody
this year, including the Chiefs, push the Broncos around, especially
in Denver. I mean it was a mismatch. Three picks
for bo Nicks. I think Indy, I don't care what
(21:55):
the line is. I think they're going to come back.
I think they're I think Chris Spallard's jobs on the line.
Anthony Richardson's careers on the line. Shane Stikeen with that
trick play that got a pick six, I think Indy
is inflamed and I think they blow the Titans out
sharper square.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
So the wise guys are on Tennessee. This line was
at four and a half even when Will Levis was
possibly the quarterback. It's been bet down immediately with Mason
Rudolph as the quarterback. The wise guys have liked the
Titans a lot this year. They've also liked the Colts
this year. Their biggest fear is betting Anthony Richardson right
(22:38):
as a favorite. Like if you want to talk about comps,
the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage right now,
Tim Tebow and Achille Smith in the past twenty five years,
this season will go down as one of the worst
in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing.
(23:01):
And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched,
he came back and he looked like he was a
little bit more in control. They were putting him in
better positions. He was just awful against the Broncos. They
were winning that game in spite of him and look
like I was on the Colts last week. Jonathan Taylor
(23:23):
dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the
Steelers last week, Nigee Harris dropping that ball, and this
was all happening. If you're watching Red Zone, this is
like boom boom boom. It was just like gut punch
after gut punch after gut punch. As a better but
you felt like and I felt like Colts had no
(23:44):
chance to get back into that game after they gave
up the lead because Anthony and Richardson can't win you
a game, so they're going to have to dominate on
the ground in order to cover this three and a half.
And at the end of the day, he got to
win by four points. That's a relatively big number and
of what should be a run heavy game in which
(24:05):
the clock is running a lot. So I think the
wise guys are still liking Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
In the hook.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Part of me says, I should love the Bears at
home plus six and a half against Detroit Jared Goff
outside bad Weather, I defended Caleb Williams this week. He
has more touchdown passes than Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray
more passing yards than Jalen Hurts and hasn't had an
interception since Halloween. Is that if you just look at
the record, you would think he's awful, and it's like, no, actually,
(24:35):
all things considered now that he's with the third coach
at home Detroit, defensively, I mean it's bad.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
It is.
Speaker 1 (24:46):
I mean eight nine yards a chunk. I think I
like Chicago at home plus six and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
Well, look, the wise guys like Chicago at home when
it was at seven and a half and seven, and
this is one hundred percent a number play. You're not
going to find anyone taking it at six and a half.
If you're taking it at six and a half, We've
talked about this, you're just not getting the best of
the number. And long term, that's a bad way to
(25:15):
try to win games. You might win once in a while,
but long term you want to be on the right
side of the number. So the wise guys took the
seven and a half, they took the seven. I think
this is a really tricky game at six and a half.
Is a home dog in the division, of course, I
want to be on the Bears. I can't find a
(25:36):
way to get there. I'm not saying I'm going to
bet Detroit, but there's two schools of thought on Jared Goff.
Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors is unbeatable.
Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole. But
he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends to
(25:56):
not when he is outside, and he is a covering
machine over the past five years. I look at this
in a different way. Sure their defense is beat up,
but all they have to do is hand the ball
to Jamiir Gibbs, because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious,
like Putrid. They are giving up one hundred yards every
(26:18):
single game no matter who they play. Saw it again
last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit
is going to come out in a bad mood and
try to prove that they're still the class of the NFC.
Run the ball down the Bear's throat, and it doesn't
really matter what Kayleb Williams does or what the weather is,
they might dominate this game. So I can't I can't
(26:38):
tell you at six and a half, you're making a
good call.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
Okay, Rams is now only minus three. I would take
them against the Jets. It was three and a half.
I think the Jets played the last two weeks. DeVante
Adams and Aaron Rodgers, you know, have clicked. But the
Rams are playing for the playoffs and the Jets are
playing for pride. I mean, between the documentary between Garrett
(27:06):
Wilson wanting a trade the story about Woody Johnson's kids,
this has been a messy week for the Jets. I
can gladly swallow the three for a much better team
and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three sharper square.
Speaker 4 (27:22):
I mean, why look, wise guys have been on the
Jets all week. The wise guys have been on the
Jets for much of the year, and, much to their dismay,
jeff Olbrick, the coach, seems to find ways to play
them out of wins and covers and then make the
stupidest mistakes that actually leads them into a cover that
(27:44):
they never should have covered. Right last week, he's going
for the touchdown with a minute left when the Jacks
have two timeouts. They end up covering the three point spread,
winning by six, when really he should have kneeled down
and left no time and kicked a field goal week before,
make bad decisions at the end of the game. They
end up losing the game to the Dolphins and not
even covering the three point spread because they lose by
(28:06):
six in overtime. So he's a menace when it comes
to clock management, and he's a menace for betters. But
the wise guys do love the Jets right now. Aaron
Rodgers has been playing significantly better the past two weeks.
You could argue, well, the old man went to Florida,
and when you're old and you're in Florida, you're gonna
feel better. And now he's got to come back and
(28:26):
play in the cold in New Jersey. But there is
something about the Rams and the fact that they have
to go into the cold too. Stafford does not perform
as well then. And also, this is a team you
get late in the year. You get teams that are
what I like to call good ish, right fifty to
(28:47):
sixty percent in terms of winning percentage, and they're playing
bad teams on the road. That is a recipe for
disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying they're
going to lose, but those games tend to be closer.
So the wise guys are definitely back of the Jets
this week.
Speaker 1 (29:02):
Okay, I'm not prone to do this, but green Bay
minus fourteen against the Saints just screams Take the Packers.
I thought their win at Seattle was so impressive because
I do think Seattle has excellent defensive coaching. This has
been a year of the favorites. I think the most
(29:23):
underrated player in the league is Jordan Love. I think
he's a magnificent talent. I think the Saints feel like
a dead franchise. I think green Bay still has a chance.
They really believe it. I think they're a better team
this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like
fourteen point favorites, but they're covering, and favorites are covering,
(29:47):
and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy
team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is
one of the few places where home field is still
three to three and a half points. Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (30:01):
Well, look, you're never gonna get sharp confirmation on a
fourteen point favorite. There are two fourteen point favorites this week,
the Packers over the Saints, the Bills over the Patriots.
There's been more of the conversation around the Bills as
fourteen point favorites. That line actually ticked up to fourteen
(30:24):
and a half, and that was very much professionals betting
on the Bills at fourteen. Then it came down then
to some professionals, not a whole lot of them, but
a couple of them were like, yeah, that's what, like
half a point too far? The Packers like, sure, there's
nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints,
(30:45):
but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
Everything you just said, everyone agrees with it. It's why.
Speaker 4 (30:51):
Actually, the wise guys were on the Packers last week
against the Seahawks. That was my favorite. Yeah, yeah, mine too.
So you only bet I won last week and so
they were on him at two and a half. That
was a great spot for the Packers, right, They had
just lost a really hard game to the Lions, and
I think that game gave them the confidence that you
(31:13):
just talked about. You saw the mastery with which Lafour
calls a game. Jordan Love has been much more cautious
with the ball, hasn't been throwing interceptions. I think the
Packers believe they are in the same class as the
Vikings and the Lions and the Eagles, and I'd be
hard pressed to disagree. I think it's harder to win
(31:35):
as two touchdown favorites against a Saints team that like
from a wise guy perspective, they just don't like this
game as much as they would like the Bills and
the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like
the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting
to you.
Speaker 1 (31:53):
Yeah. Please.
Speaker 3 (31:55):
So this is the win Josh Allen MVP game. Right.
Speaker 4 (32:02):
There's talk this week because Lamar Jackson threw five touchdowns
against the Giants that maybe he should be MVP, and
you saw the MVP odds shrink a little bit. The
Bills tend to blow these teams out anyways, right, they
are a team that has a winning record as big
favorites in these games in the division outside the division
(32:26):
at home, they they don't play down to the level
of their competition. Their offense can do whatever it wants
against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early, their
record against the spread it's like seven and twenty one
the past two years, like they are a terrible team.
(32:46):
They cannot recover. So If the Bills get out to
lead early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot.
The one concern is, you know, the Bill's secondary has
a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about
the Patriots offense. They got Drake may who's slinging it
and trying his best. But right now Gerrod Mayo was
(33:07):
throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense.
There's just a lot of turmoil there. So the wise guys,
if they're betting a big favorite, they're more inclined to
bet the Bills than the Packers.
Speaker 1 (33:21):
All these college football reactions presented by JLab. I'm wearing
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All right, I want to talk some college football now
because I think I do think Indiana Notre Dame a
lot of its weather. I think it's going to be
(34:03):
pretty close. I think Notre Dame is a great run team.
Indiana is a kind of a peculiar unique run defense.
I think really good coaches with time can employ, you know,
competitive strategies. We know that Ohio State in Columbus on
a nice day to play football is better significantly. Notre
(34:24):
Dame doesn't have Ohio State's talent, and I also think
Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre
Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They
just played down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling,
and I think Indiana is going to So I really
like Indiana plus seven. How do the wise guys view it?
Speaker 4 (34:44):
Yeah, look the numbers come down because wise guys are
betting Indiana and Indiana's look.
Speaker 3 (34:51):
Been a covering machine this year.
Speaker 4 (34:53):
Yes, obviously that Ohio State game was the biggest challenge.
They also didn't cover against Michigan, but that was at
a time when Michigan was starting to get better. And
the next week they went on and they beat Ohio State.
So that was a much more physical game. Ohio State.
Indiana had some bad plays and they were outclassed, and
you could see the talent difference.
Speaker 3 (35:15):
I'm with you. The wise guys are with you, and the way.
Speaker 4 (35:19):
Indiana matches up a little bit better with Notre Dame
and the time and look, you can't help but listen
to Kurt Signetti and know that he's playing this game
and has got his players playing this game with a
huge chip on their shoulder.
Speaker 3 (35:36):
And we've talked about this.
Speaker 4 (35:39):
One of the reasons Indiana won this year and why
it was able to achieve when other teams that are
leaning into the portal weren't able to achieve, is because
they brought in grown up college football players. They didn't
bring in five star recruits who are going to be
there for a year and go to the NFL. They
(35:59):
bought it guys who are just really good at college football.
And this is a great college football game. And there
is a nuanced difference when I say a college football game. Here,
that's the style of game this is going to be.
It's going to be physical, it's going to be about execution.
It's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes,
but the people who do their jobs the best, So
(36:20):
I love this game for Indiana.
Speaker 1 (36:22):
I like the under on Clemson Texas, mostly not because
Texas is going to score a ton. I don't think
Clemson can score much on Texas. I'm gonna take Texas
minus twelve. I really feel it has a chance to
be thirty to ten. I think the Texas defense is sensational,
and I think the Clemson offense it's almost like that
(36:43):
SMU game felt like their bowl game. I think both
SMU and Clemson are going to get totally outclassed in
their bowl games. I like the under, but I'm going
to take Texas minus twelve. I think this Remember Clemson
doesn't go to the transfer portal, they have ols app,
Texas out recruits them and goes to the transfer portal.
(37:04):
And also Texas's offense over the last three weeks, I
don't think they'll pause. If quin your struggles, I think
they'll go to Arts Manning. I don't think they'll pause
going forward. I like Texas to roll here, sharper square.
Speaker 4 (37:18):
Totally sharp, like if you're looking I'm looking in the
action app right now. It's just checking it out and
you can see in the app you can see the
betting tickets, and you can see the money percentages on
each side, and betting tickets is usually an indication of
the public. That's the squares who are betting ten dollars
(37:40):
twenty dollars, and there's a lot of volume of tickets.
Money usually represents where the wise guys are. So the
tickets right now are on Clemson, the money is on Texas,
And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree
with you. That defense they have is just fear like
(38:01):
they did a job on Georgia. And if Texas's offense
could execute a little bit better, then we wouldn't be
having this conversation about who's the who is the SEC
champion would have been Texas. So like, that defense is
so freaking good, and it's a veteran defense. Again, we're
(38:21):
talking about like guys who had been playing college football
for a while, and I think that's an advantage here.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
So the game, I'm gonna ask you to handicap. I
don't get the line. So the line is telling me
Ohio State's gonna win because it hasn't moved much. So
Tennessee's defensive line is significantly better than Ohio State's offensive line,
meaning Ohio State's gonna have to throw and it may
(38:49):
only be fifteen degrees, but this line is telling me
that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State has pissed
and Ryan Day's jobs on the line line and Josh
Heipels isn't and it's in Columbus and it is a
warm weather SEC team. So the line is telling me
that Ohio State's going to win this comfortably. That's what
(39:11):
it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and
a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this.
I mean, Tennessee is the best rushing team in the SEC.
Going into cold weather. It just screams to you, low scoring,
take the points. But the line's not moving, and that
tells me the Sharps like Ohio State, do they.
Speaker 4 (39:28):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, it's settled in where it's at, right,
and that is because it's been It's kind of the
advantages is not for Tennessee because of some of these
situations that you just talked about, And there is some
(39:48):
feeling that this is such a desperate spot for Ryan Day.
It's been seven and a half almost since it opened.
It was at six and a half for about thirty seconds.
These guys took the six and a half. They bet
Tennessee at six and a half, right, But there was
so much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that
(40:10):
it moved up. So Ryan Day is in a spot.
And we've talked about this. There was a story in
the Wall Street Journal today about Ohio State fans people
calling in to local radio about Max Crosby, who the Lions,
the Raiders defensive lineman who's out for the year. On
(40:31):
his podcast, he's a massive Ohio State fan, talking about how.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
He wants the team to lose so they get rid
of Ryan Day.
Speaker 4 (40:38):
That is a weird thing to be talking about when
you've got a coach who has.
Speaker 3 (40:44):
Won as much as he has.
Speaker 4 (40:46):
But I think you and I agree every game for
him is going to be a must win game. And
unless they win the championship or they get there and
they are so dominant, and he puts himself in a
position even if they lose, it's a way to rebuild
the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program. And he
(41:06):
hasn't beaten him and they haven't gotten over it.
Speaker 1 (41:08):
You know. I think sometimes one of the things I
love about sports is when there's cultural changes. I like
to be I like to predict what they are. I
love the theories and my systems on like what's changing.
So something's happening in college football, and college football fans
don't yet know it. So in the NFL, it's almost
(41:29):
understood that you've got to give a staff a couple
of years, right, Like, there's just it's just really hard.
The margins are thin. Well, I think the Ohio States
and the Georgia's and the Texas fans, you know, you've
always been able to line up and just beat teams.
And one of the reasons is over a long season
is your backups were as good as their starters. And
(41:50):
football's regulated level levels of violence. So there's college and pro.
There's injuries, but the transfer portal and NIL has eliminated
depth at the blue bloods Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when
you do suffer injuries and the season is now longer
than ever, your backups are produced starters, that's all they are.
(42:12):
And so these Ohio States and these big Notre Dame,
these big traditional powers, as the season goes on, I mean,
look at look at our twelve team playoff. Arizona States
in it, SMUs in it, Boise States in it like,
and these these are live dogs like and so I
don't think quite college football fans understand. Not only are
(42:34):
players getting paid that it looks more like pro football,
but your backup stink just like pro football. Detroit's defense
now has six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it
was excellent. And so what and what creates that the
salary cap? You have bad backups in the NFL? Nobody
(42:55):
has depth in the NFL. You eat it like Philadelphia's
got great frontline starters. AJ Brown's out. It's not the
same offense. Right, Saquon Barkley's out, it's not the same offense.
We've almost understood that in pro football you need your starters.
And when you get injury plagued Buffalo Detroit's defense, you're like,
what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't
(43:15):
have good college That was never the point. Top ten
teams just had better backups. I mean, eighty five scholarships
allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're
Ohio State, now they have two. One gets hurt, you
move a guard to left tackle. They're all lime stakes
it's Iowa at best.
Speaker 4 (43:33):
So you're you're totally right. That's an on the field problem.
But culturally, for fandom, yeah, the beauty of college football,
it's always been Michigan Ohio State rivalry weekend. You know,
Alabama Tennessee or Alabama Auburn. You know these games they
(43:58):
had so much meaning because there was a lot on
the line.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
You couldn't lose that game.
Speaker 4 (44:05):
I think what Ohio State is struggling with and what
a lot of schools will struggle with in the future,
is you focus so much on that one rivalry game
and that's all you care about. Because college football has
always been so provincial. Now it's a national game. The
SEC is spread out all over, The Big Ten is
(44:25):
literally nationwide. These are the only two conferences that really
kind of matter. And so the provincial, local rivalries that
college fan bases have built their mindset on, have built
their self worth on, have built.
Speaker 3 (44:41):
Their fandom on.
Speaker 4 (44:43):
They need to move on from those really meeting anything
because they kind of don't. If Io State loses to
Michigan for the next ten years, but they win the
national title in five of those years, is that going
to be better or worse as a fan. They need
to come to grips with a new reality of what
these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture,
(45:05):
because they used to mean everything.
Speaker 3 (45:07):
It wasn't just about beating Michigan.
Speaker 4 (45:09):
It was about beating Michigan and what it meant for
winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl,
or what it meant for winning the Big Ten and
then being in the College Football Playoff or winning the
BCS and getting a better rating.
Speaker 3 (45:21):
Those things don't matter anymore.
Speaker 4 (45:23):
So the rivalries and the expectations for what these rivalries
mean need to be adjusted. I also think it's just
going to diminish the value of those games for fans.
My kid, he's going to be in college next year.
He's gotten into Indiana, he got into Penn State, wherever
he decides to go. Are the rivalries for those schools
(45:44):
going to mean as much to him twenty years from
now as they do to me and my friends who
also went to Indiana.
Speaker 3 (45:48):
Probably not.
Speaker 1 (45:50):
Do you have an NFL bet this weekend that you
would label your favorite.
Speaker 4 (45:57):
Well, look, I middled Kansas City. I bet Kansas City
plus two and a half on Sunday night, and then no,
it was plus two and a half on Monday morning.
I'm sorry when the news about what was happening with
Holmes was still unclear. The Chiefs were two and a
half point underdogs, so I bet them two and a half.
And then when it became clear that he was going
(46:19):
to be playing. This was yesterday afternoon, the game got
up to three and a half. I bet the Texans
at plus three and a half, So the majority of
my money is trying to get that middle right. But
I also bet the Jets three and a half. That's
one that I like. I really like the Steelers at
six and a half. So if I like, I'll put
(46:42):
in my five favorite picks. The Steelers will be in there.
The Jets will definitely be in there. Dallas I bet
at four and a half. I like Dallas a lot
against Tampa. I think there's a lot of inflation this week,
and I think that's one of the bigger games where
Dallas has been playing better. Like the last three weeks,
(47:04):
last four weeks, that Cincinnati game kind of looks like
a fluke, right. They lost that game, They've won the
three other games. Micah Parsons has seven and a half
sacks since he's back Deron Bland is back in the secondary.
That defense is getting a lot better. Cooper Rush at
Home Controlled Environment. Tampa Bay just put up forty on
(47:25):
the chargers that inflated that line a little bit.
Speaker 1 (47:28):
So.
Speaker 3 (47:29):
Dallas is another one that I'm I'm paying attention to.
Speaker 1 (47:33):
Chad Millman Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (47:35):
I love it, buddy, Great to chat with your buddy.
Speaker 1 (47:40):
The volume
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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