Colin’s top takes of the week!
He starts by extending his sympathy to Caleb Williams who has obvious talent but can’t overcome the disaster that is the Chicago Bears franchise (3:45). He also argues that the NBA needs to make major changes in order to win back fans in an era of declining ratings (10:15).
Then he dives into the unique advantage the Green Bay Packers have by not having an owner and why that’s resulted in long term success and good decision making (11:15).
Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 17 of the NFL slate, plus the College Football Playoff
26:00- Blowouts in first round of College Football Playoff
28:15 - Broncos vs Bengals
30:30 - Saints vs Raiders
28:00 - Falcons vs Commanders
34:30 - Bills vs Jets
36:45 - Panthers vs Buccaneers
39:00 - Ohio State vs Oregon
50:45 - Cardinals vs Rams
53:45 - Chad’s Biggest Whif/Hit Of The Year
57:15 - Chargers vs Patriots
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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(01:13):
I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and
talking about this awful Seattle six to three went over
the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a
broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over three hundred
yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes.
That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the
(01:35):
first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this
team in this season. I mean, they're using a basically
their third different person is sort of assembling the game
plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an
absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC.
(01:57):
He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really
nice throws tonight. I mean Gino smith Is, I mean
just a ham and egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent.
But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise.
There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises.
Let's let's let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets.
(02:19):
They had Robert Sola for years, an excellent defensive coach.
Joe Douglas whipped on a quarterback in a COVID year,
But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks,
it's very good. He also went and got Davonte Adams
before he got fired, and Deavante and Aaron are connecting.
Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out
(02:41):
and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like
he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic,
accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams.
I mean, it's I don't trust the ownership. You know,
Kevin Warren, the president, has a reputation is more Paula
Titians and football expert Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen,
(03:06):
keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think
he's done a terrible job last year. Four picks. He
took a punter. That's not what I would have done.
They could have, you know, made more moves, eber flues.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
The staff.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
It's a mess. I mean, it's just nothing that's redeemable
about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple
of players Montes Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know,
they've got a couple of players I like, But everybody
in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just
nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was
(03:42):
an unwatchable mess. And all the fears that Kayleb Williams
had privately going to Chicago. I mean I reported this
last year. I got pushedback on it, but people in
his camp were worried this franchise. I mean, look at
Chicago's ports right now, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bears. I don't
have any ability to decipher why not great ownership is
(04:08):
a place to start, but I feel I feel sad
for the kid because and you can see the talent.
I mean you you would have to be trying to
make an argument to say you can't see his talent.
I mean last night or tonight was the first interception
he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween.
(04:28):
And that's why this idea that you can just go
out and get some you know, Ben Johnson and he's
going to change the world. You know, that guy's never
been a head coach at the high school level. There
are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I
don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL,
(04:49):
I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs
are good. And if Oz Mike Frable, I'd sit it
out for a year because I think next year you
could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would
be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out
there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott
does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a
(05:10):
good coach, could be in trouble. So though, those are
really good opportunities, and there's only been three great coaching
opportunities in the last eight years, Green Bay Matt Lafleur,
I think Mike McCarthy and Dallas and getting Justin Herbert
with a Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities.
I wouldn't want the Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I
wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other
(05:33):
takeaway in this game, it's funny the number one position
in the NFL over the last twenty years that has
been the biggest bust rate in the first round is
wide receiver, And obviously, you know wide receivers can make
dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba first rounder,
DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end, and Noah
(05:56):
Fant excellent running back Charboney who's their second back. But
equality Gino Smith can't play. You're eight, nine, nine and
eight with Gino Smith. That's just what it is, you know,
Roma Dunza, what can you do? They've been better off
going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they
went in later rounds and got some prospect I think
(06:17):
from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see.
You know, you look at the Chargers who are going
to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver.
They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe
Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs.
They have two of the best young tackles offensive tackles
in the NFL. Yeah. I was just watching it tonight
(06:38):
and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver
talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzae and DK Metcalf
second rounder in Smith and Jigbin. What's it matter if
you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you
have a mediocre quarterback and I like John Snyder as
general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job,
but I think he made a major mistake last year
(06:59):
in the year before not afting a quarterback. And I
said it at the time. I'm not you know, I'm
not looking through the rear view mirror here. I said it.
Last year. Seattle's roster is really solid d line, solid
skilled positions, good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move.
They're just mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight.
(07:20):
And you know, I just Chicago fans al Michael's touched
on this. I mean, they are being handed just tire
fires and all their sports and come out tonight and
pack that stadium. Is you know, it's a tip of
the cap to one of the great American cities and
sports cities because fans in that city are getting ripped off.
(07:42):
The quality is awful. It's always been a very political
city and it feels like the same with the Bears.
It just feels like a kind of a political hot mess.
So again, I think my first choice would be vable.
I don't know if he'd accept it. I have real
reservations about all these hot shot offensive coordinators a year ago,
(08:04):
Bobby Slowick Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score
this year. C J. Stroud has regressed badly. You know
the Cliff Kingsbury, who I like a lot, but he
struggled as a head coach college and Pro. You gotta
be careful. I mean, there was a time when everybody
was bragging about Shane Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron,
(08:27):
you know, I don't even know where he's at now.
He got booted out of the Bears organization. So I think,
what a franchise is broken? You got to you got
to get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit Harbaugh, Mike Framele.
That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess.
I've said before that I'm I'm willing to change my
(08:48):
mind if I get no information. And I was thinking
about watching the Packers tonight about I'll give you an
example of something I radically changed my mind on. So
I would say, forty years ago, I liked the Olympics
far more than the World Cup. And the reason was
is at forty and forty five years ago and I'm,
you know, fifteen years old, twenty years old, college student,
(09:09):
high school student, and as somebody that absolutely loved sports.
You didn't get three straight weeks of sports. You didn't
have this proliferation of regional networks and local networks. You know,
when I was a kid growing up, fifteen years old,
you got an NBC Baseball Game of the week. You know,
I lived in around Seattle. I couldn't get Mariner games
(09:29):
except on radio. You couldn't watch Mariner games. And you know,
I was a kid from divorce. We didn't have the
money to go to Mariner games. It was a two
and a half hour drive. I lived on the beach
in Westport, Washington, so you know, like once every five years,
i'd go to a Mariner game. So the Olympics, you know,
for a sports obsessed fifteen and twenty year old, was
(09:50):
three straight weeks of sports. It didn't matter that I
didn't care about the sports at that point, I had
never skied. It didn't matter. I'd watch the Winter Olympics.
I wasn't in track, I didn't care. I watched the
Summer Olympics. It didn't matter. I still don't care about
Olympic sports, most of them. But it was three straight
weeks of sports. And then you have over the course
of the last forty forty five years, this proliferation of
(10:11):
cable and again all these networks. I can turn on
my television any day of the week and get twenty games.
I mean, you can fish around on a Tuesday and
get you know, during the baseball season, I can watch
every baseball team. So the Olympics now today don't feel
as special to me because I didn't care about the
sports and the Olympics then or now. But the fact
(10:33):
that you got three straight weeks of sports was really unique.
Now it's not, And so now you could have the Olympics.
I'll watch the opening ceremonies, maybe a couple events. I
just don't care. But I love the World Cup. Some
of that is I worked at two networks with World
Cup and soccer analysts and experts, so I'm around more
(10:56):
soccer people, and frankly, you know, four years, you know
it's something new, it's something fresh. I mean, how many
NBA games, how many football games? Can I watch? The
quality of soccer is great. I know more about soccer.
It doesn't matter if it was the other place or Fox,
I'll watch more soccer. A lot of my adult friends
(11:17):
have given up baseball and they're more soccer friends fans
on a Saturday morning, they'll watch English Premier League, you know,
And I have a lot of friends like that. I've
also gone to Europe more in my life, so I'm
just more I'm just more into the World Cup than soccer.
I've totally changed my opinion on that. And this is
where I get back to the Packers. I always thought
not having an owner was a disadvantage to the Packers.
(11:40):
Is that having a Stan cronkey who can literally as
he's on the tarmac true story of flying out of
the country can tell Sean McVay, all right, go for it,
Go get Matt Stafford, Like you know, it's gonna be expensive.
I'm gonna pay for Jared Goff in Detroit and Stafford
in LA. Let's go for it. Big advantage. But I'm
(12:01):
watching the Packers tonight and think about this. Ten of
thirty two teams in the NFL, thirty one percent of
the NFL has five wins or fewer for a couple
weeks to go. So the Saints have five and they'll
lose tonight Carolina. The Jets in Chicago have four, four
and eleven. Vegas Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville and New England are
(12:25):
three and twelve, and the Giants are two and thirteen.
So that's ten of thirty two teams. That was only
five last year. It's doubled. That is a really really
large bottom and unwatchable part of the NFL feels very
much like the NBA. It really does. I mean thirty
(12:46):
percent of the NBA or more as unwatchable. And I
think there are two reasons for that number.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
One more and more.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Because a rule changes and culture. Quarterback just means more.
I mean, there's only one great quarterback in the NFL
that's not going to make the playoffs. Joe Burrow, cheapest
owner in the league, terrible defense, shaky o line, and
he's still fighting for a playoff spot. They may make it.
Statistically very little chance, but they may make it. He's
(13:16):
the only great quarterback that won't make the playoffs. If
you have one year in, if you have a good
rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels, bon Nix, you're in. Michael Pennix,
my guess now is going to win the remaining games
for Atlanta. They'll be in. If you just have a
competent rookie quarterback, a Pennex down the stretch, Bononix, Jayden Daniels,
You're in. So quarterbacks more important than ever. And number
(13:40):
two is billionaire owners. Now the poorest owners a billionaire
and it wasn't like that ten years ago. And billionaire
owners are less patient. Firing as staff and having to
pay forty five million dollars is more of a rounding air.
And so you have more chaos among coaching staffs and
more chaos in the coaching community. So between it's more
(14:03):
quarterback centric and more impulsive owners, you just have more
hot messes in the NFL. And I'm watching tonight. I mean,
I'm one of these guys that can sit down and
watch almost any NFL team. Giants unwatchable, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas,
hard to watch, Carolina with Bryce Young not can to
(14:26):
watch it, a little, Jets, Aaron Rodgers. I'll watch Chicago,
I'll watch Saints tonight, unwatchable. So it's just interesting. It's
something I've really changed my mind on is that having
an owner I always thought was a huge advantage, but
I think Green Bay going forward having no owner because
(14:47):
I now believe because of the impulsive nature of billionaires,
richer owners, less patient, more impulsive. There's only about four
to five great owners. I think the Hunt family in
Kansas City's excellent. Stan Kronkey with the Rams is really excellent.
You know, Robert Kraft. People will argue he's frugal but
(15:08):
pretty solid owner. But there's a lot of average to
below average owners right now. There's more good quarterbacks and
good coaches in the NFL than great owners. And I
think going forward, you're allowed to be much more patient.
I mean you're allowed to sit Aaron Rodgers on the
bench for three years and grow. You couldn't do that
if you had an owner. No way you could have
(15:29):
a first round quarterback and not rush him onto the field.
The owner would be harping every year. There's no way
you could have Jordan Love sit for three years as
Aaron was getting prickly and high maintenance and passive, aggressive,
and owner would have stepped in and said, ship him,
let's play the kid. Just why do you think Green Bay,
(15:50):
more than any NFL franchise, can keep using this formula
drafting you know, high end quarterbacks first round and not
playing him for three years. Could not do that even
with a good owner. You couldn't do it, there'd be
too much pressure. I mean, I think you'd be surprised
how often owners listen to sports talk and listen to fans.
(16:16):
Gms are too busy to listen, so are coaches. Players
don't really care. Billionaire owners who have people under them
want to get the temperature of fans. In the media,
and I mean, there's no question that New York media
is influenced. Woody Johnson influenced by the New York media
firing Robert Sala and nobody everybody was banging on him.
(16:39):
And if Woody Johnson's not listening, his kids are listening.
We've heard stories about Woody Johnson's kids having influence. So
I think it's a real advantage for green Bay going forward.
And I believe strongly in this, and I never used
to think it is that as the wealth and the
net worth has gone up ten times for owners, you
(17:01):
don't have to worry about Brian guden Kunst, Mark Murphy.
Who are they answering to the packers board And it's
you know, not a lot of power there. So you know,
I'm Washington green Bay, and I don't think it's a
coincidence that they have been able with the last two
star quarterbacks to just let them sit for three years.
(17:22):
No way in the world could you do that with
an owner, even a good owner. So tip of the
cap to the Packers. Well, it's the most wonderful time
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Speaker 1 (18:53):
All right, here we go another edition of Sharper Square
Chad Milman. Cost to the favorites. I we'll have a
couple of college games in here as well, because of
I think some of the lines are work in our favor.
By the way, I enjoy the college football playoff. You know,
first rounds of the NCAA tournament. First rounds of the
(19:16):
tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect I suspect
going forward, the second round will be reseeded. That would
be my guess. It will expand to fourteen or sixteen teams.
I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to
the tournament.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
What say you, yeah, totally. I feel like two things
out of this one. The first point you just made
every year in March Madness, the first round has you know,
sixteen fourteen blowouts and two great games, and then like
(19:53):
but everyone remembers the great games. The argument will expand
the field, and then all of a sudden you're gonna
span the field and going to be a MAC team
that ends up be upsetting a Big ten team at
twelve to five scenario. You're going to have that in
college football one day. I don't worry about it. Also, two,
you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State, after
(20:15):
Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after SMU
was getting it handed to them by Penn State. I
was in a tech chain with a bunch of IU
buddies right and I was saying, you can guarantee right
now next year over correction for SEC and strength of schedule,
(20:38):
you get seven SEC teams. You'll get two Big ten
teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State. You'll get
Clemson out of the ACC. You'll get who Cares out
of the Big twelve, and you'll get Boise State, right
because you won't get the at large team. You won't
(20:59):
get the third Big Ten team because now the committee
is too scared because of all these blowouts.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
So you're now you're gonna get just.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
The SEC and when those teams are blown out in
the first round, then you expand and you're like, ask,
We're just gonna let everybody in and hopefully we get
some upsets sometime down the road.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
That's my take, all right, So we'll have some college
football picks. We'll start with the NFL Broncos plus three
and a half head coach Sean Payton with extra time.
They played on Thursday. Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think
people are overreacting to just how good Joe Burrow is.
They can't stop people offensive coach extra time. Listen, they
(21:35):
outplayed the Chargers for the first half, and you know,
then Justin Herbert just did what great quarterbacks do. He
took the game over. This one jumped out to me
as an overreaction. Broncos plus three and a half sharper square.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow.
The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game.
Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and
make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going
to get sacked. He's purouetting into full on dives and
(22:12):
throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad
that he had no choice but to look like someone
who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of
holds the ball. That's kind of his mo. He wants
to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it
to Higgins, he wants to get it to Jamar Chase.
I would want to do that too, So it's not
(22:32):
entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will
get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos
have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they
don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost
got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad
the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some
stats about bow Knicks that should make you feel more
(22:53):
comfortable about this, because I betted at three and a
half bow nicks against bad defenses, so defense is below
the fifty percent rashold the cross a variety of metrics
in the NFL, of which the Bengals are won seven
or zero straight up and against the spread, twenty nine
points per game, thirteen touchdowns, two interceptions. The Broncos are
ranked as a better team than the Bengals across the
(23:15):
board in all DVA metrics, like it's over inflation on
the Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals Joe
Burrow looking like a superhero.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Literally another game that jumped out to me. I don't
like to bet, I don't like debt bad teams. But
the Saints probably the worst humiliation in the league this year,
a standalone Monday night football game didn't score and it
almost looked like they quit. Now they're at home getting
a point against the horrible Raiders team sharper square.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
I don't even know what to say, Colin.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
In all the years we've been doing this, I will
come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or here,
and try to get you'd have bet the ugliest team
in the worst game, and you're like, no, not betting
a game. I don't want to watch not betting a
bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before we
came on the show, and I was thinking, all right,
(24:13):
what game am I going to get him to bet
that He's like, I haven't asked about it. It was
the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the
fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're
betting the Saints here like they're getting They just got
blown out in prime time humiliated Historically, Historically, you bet
that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that they're playing JV players,
(24:33):
it doesn't matter who their quarterback is, they're at home,
they're as as a dog. They just got blown out.
Every sort of trend says you play that team. On
the other side, the Raiders. Look, they beat up on
the Jags, but let's not be fooled. They had a
ten game losing streak and the Jags kept turning the
(24:53):
ball over. So I wouldn't be too anxious to bet
on the Raiders as road favorites in this. But give
me the Saints. Now, I gotta scramble and think of
what my other game I'm going to try to get
you to bed is well.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
I like the Falcons plus floor the Commanders, and the
reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was
a hero at the end, but he just tried to
give that thing away early. I think Michael Penix is
really good. I think they have a good offensive line
will hold the Commander's pass rush off. Four points is
a lot. I do not. I think the Falcons are
gonna be competitive. Listen, They're playing for a division title,
(25:30):
all right. This is a big game for them. So
this is not like the Commander and the Commanders aren't
going to get home field advantage. The Falcons can win
home field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It
just seems to me, again it wasn't that they just
beat the Giants. It's not just that, but Pennix's accuracy.
Greg Cosell talked about it this week. This kid has
(25:52):
an arm I don't care if it's windy. I like
the Falcons plus four sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 3 (25:59):
Wise, guys, this down from four and a half to four.
I'd be surprised if it isn't a three and a
half or lower. By the game. A lot of the
reasons you just indicated, Michael Penix had a lot of
fans into the draft, A lot of professional betters don't forget.
The draft has become a huge betting event. Professional betters
(26:19):
are digging into game film from college the same way
they're digging into game film on a week to week
basis now because there's a money making opportunity. There's a market,
right Michael Penix is one of those guys. Not dissimilar
from Jayden Daniels, not dissimilar from bow Nicks, not that
dissimilar from Caleb Williams.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
A ton of film on the guy.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
He played a lot of college football, and some of
the reasons why these guys who are coming in and
having successes because they played so many games. We saw
how accurate he could be. I love watching Penicks throw
like I think his ball is so pretty. And also
I don't think in a primetime game he is someone
who would be by the lights the way other rookies might.
(27:02):
He's played in massive games. Talk about college football National Championship.
That's a big game. I don't care if it's in
college like that has huge steaks, So he's been in spots.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
He's older. I like it too.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The
Bills slip walked sleepwalk through their win over New England.
So you get those when you're a dominant team. The
Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now
(27:38):
you've got Aaron Rodgers is not sure he's coming back.
There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last
six to eight weeks. But I think Buffalo is a
significantly better team. Jetsro a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson
is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here.
(27:58):
I think Buffalo also watch the Ravens and the Chiefs
flex and play brilliantly. His favorites, there's a separation. You know,
I don't like big favorites. I'm gonna take Buffalo minus
eight and a half off all horrible winning performance Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (28:14):
So it's a little square.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
The numbers moved, you know, it's moved in the Jets direction.
I can't fault you if you want to do this.
Everything you just said is are all the reasons why
I was on the Bills last week.
Speaker 4 (28:28):
I thought they'd want to flex.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson throwing
five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back
in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP.
It didn't happen right Drake may was running, he was
throwing accurately.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
Obviously different scenario. I lean into the Bills again. To
be honest, I.
Speaker 3 (28:51):
Feel like everything you just said about the Jets is true,
which is why I would want to back the Bills.
Aaron Rodgers had been healthy for the past three weeks.
He's now got a minor MCL issue on his knee.
This team is a train wreck. I was all over
the Jets last week. Whise guys were in the Jets
last week. You cannot count in the Jets because the
(29:15):
decision making of jeff Elbrick is so bad. He does
not seem to understand the basic constructs of when to
go four and fourth down, situational play clock management. If
the Jets kick a field goal, I'm fourth and four
from the Rams twelve yard line. Last week, they're up
twelve to six, and that's the ballgame. Like the Rams
(29:37):
were not doing anything. Instead, he twice went fourth and
fourth downs and that's basically when the Rams won the game.
So it's hard to bet on the Jets because jeff
Elbrick is just so bad.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
At this.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
One more NFL game. This line's moved back and forth.
Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the Bucks.
Tampa's the better team, but all make the argument in
the last month. Bryce Young is playing like a number
one pick and c. J. Stroud's playing like a number
two pick. The Panthers can move the ball, They've got
(30:12):
a good coach, they can move the ball. Tampa's dinged up.
I think they'll win, but division game a hot quarterback,
it kind of feels like an easy one.
Speaker 3 (30:24):
Sharper square, totally sharp. I haven't understood this line all week.
The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and
a half, it went down to eight. Now it's at
seven and a half because money has been coming under
the Panthers. I think you're good until seven. You know,
at seven you just sort of leave it alone. You
want to get the hook off of that key number.
A lot of games to end on seven. That's when
(30:45):
we talk about key numbers, three, seven, those are the
biggest ones. What's interesting about this game is a month
ago they played it in Carolina, Tampa was a six
and a half point favorite on the road, one in
overtime because Tuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal
range for the Bucks. Right, So now you take this
(31:08):
game to Tampa. Tampa is only a point and a
half better. When the line came out, went from six
and a half to eight. Right, Normally home field is
three points. What that's telling you is two things. One,
bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers. They started off one
and seven against the spread. Bryce Young was terrible. Professional
betters had been betting, betting betting the Panthers. I'm sure
(31:29):
listeners remember early in the year. I was all over
the Panthers. Bryce Young two point zero is everything you
just said. He's rolling out of the pocket using his legs,
incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket, taking really hard hits.
He's been great. He's been a really good quarterback, much
better than CJ. Stroud, Like you said, so, bookmakers have
(31:50):
adjusted to that. To me, eight was still a little
too high. Wise, guys agree, you're sharp. Take the Panthers
a college football line.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
It jumps out to me. I don't believe you can
win a national championship with a bad defense. That's why
I think Texas and Ohio State probably play for the Natty,
and I do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at
least in play to play for the National Championship. Oregon's
defense is bad. Boise State ran on it, Ohio State
did whatever they wanted on it. Penn State did whatever
(32:23):
they wanted against the Ducks. I'm trying to forget the
Tennessee game because it was in Columbus, but Ohio State
has played in the Rose Bowl before. Whether it's not
a factor. I said before the season, Oregon's gonna beat
Ohio State at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in
(32:43):
the rematch. It's under a field goal, I'd take the
Buckeye sharper square.
Speaker 4 (32:48):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Look, that's the sharp side right now, right and that's
where the money is. And when you see money and
sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually
get betting percentages and money percentages. Money right now is
on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State,
which locks to Michigan, lost to Oregon, has had a
lot of drama questions about Ryan Day, the fact they
(33:11):
beat up Tennessee the way they did. Oregon has been
out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a
lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said,
So that's the way the money has been going in
this game. Look, it's fascinating. It's rare you're going to
get the second ranked, third ranked whatever it is team
(33:32):
to be the favorite over the number one ranked team.
But that's the spot we're in because of everything you
just said.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
All right, there's a game I want you to kind
of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both
their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The
Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six,
it's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well,
so from time to time the Rams can feel like
(34:06):
a road team at home. This won't be one of
these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach.
The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're
better than the line. That Jets game was built for
them to lose early game, cold weather, good defense, and
they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's
(34:26):
six to six and a half. I have to bet
the Rams. I know it's divisional Sharper square. If I
like the Rams.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams. But
this is sort of the nuance of the betting business
is getting the best of the number. This game on
Sunday Night opened Rams at minus four. So I'll do
the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night
on the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 4 (34:54):
We'll do it go on air at seven thirty. We'll
do it live.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
We're off air before the Sunday Night GEME. The timing
is relevant here because we will preview the games that
we like the most first glance, you know, gut instinct,
not having done any research for the following week. This
game stood out immediately we started talking about the Rams
minus four. Why is this number solo? The Rams just
(35:23):
got out of a trap game against the Jets and
they won. The week before, they got lucky, the Niners
dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners in a monsoon.
Now they're going home, chance to clinch the division against
a team that is down. James Connor injured. We saw
him practicing but still limping. Offensive linemen injured. Not a
(35:45):
very good defense. A coach who doesn't know how to
keep his team up yet. The way they say Sean
McVay would, or even Mike McCarthy did with the Cowboys
against the Bucks. The number during that show went from
four to four and a half to five to five
and a half. Thirty minutes, it moved a point and
a half. By Monday morning it was six. And so
(36:09):
when you're talking about why isn't it sharp to bet
the Rams now, because the wise guy's been betting it
since it was at four, four and a half, five,
five and a half, and a little bit at six
until it got to six and a half. It got
to seven, and wise guys started betting the Cardinals at seven.
Speaker 4 (36:25):
Again, the Rams are the right side, but if you.
Speaker 3 (36:29):
Want to win as a better long term then you
have to have enough discipline to choose the best of
the number and then walk away. If you don't feel
like you're getting it. You could still bet the Rams
at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning,
but it's not going to be a sharp side at
six and a half.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
All right, I gotta tell you I've had a lousy
year betting, but so far I've got seven of eight
division winners. I picked a surprise playoff team every year.
It was the Washington Commanders team that will double the
Vegas win total. It was the Denver Broncos. I said
this on the air today on TV on FS one.
(37:07):
There's the old saying with kids, the days are long,
but the years fly by, and I feel like with
the NFL week to week it's crazy, but over the
course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had
a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs
and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites,
but a lot of favorites. Of one is I'm trying
(37:29):
to think. I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars badly,
but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said
to you, give me your width and the one you'll
plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.
Speaker 3 (37:46):
Oh it's it's interesting. The Width started as the Panthers
just because I loved him. I just thought this team,
this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line. More than anything,
I just thought they were going to be much much better.
It ended up being a w because they started off
so badly and I lost so much on them early
(38:09):
in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that
they got better, and so I'm glad about that.
Speaker 4 (38:15):
To me, the.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
One I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love
Jim Harbaugh and we didn't even talk about that game.
I think he's a football savant and I think that
what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason
why his teams turn around so quickly no matter the
talent level. He knows the rules, he knows strategy, he
(38:40):
knows clock management so well. What he did at the
end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a
brilliant coach, was a masterclass.
Speaker 1 (38:50):
Right.
Speaker 4 (38:51):
He takes the time out so they have to punt.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
The punk leads to the roughing the returner, the personal
file that leads to the free kick, that leads to
the Chargers having momentum and they win that game going away.
That's good decision making, and you don't see That's what
you don't see from Jeff Albrook. It's what you're not
seeing from Jared Mao, like you see the difference there.
So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because
(39:16):
I thought they'd be good this year and I played
it that way. By the way, I'll also tell you
that the bet that I always love the most, which
I'm still in play for. I always do sort of
a round robin on the teams that are at twelve
to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and
I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you
(39:39):
can usually get those at like between twenty and thirty
five to one. So you bet the Chiefs and the Lions,
you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the
Ravens and the Lions. You bet the Ravens and the Eagles,
and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera,
et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals,
I'm alive with that if they make the playoffs. So
(40:02):
I always like that bet and feel good now that
the Chiefs and the Ravens at least are two of
the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning
of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions,
and I feel good that those matchups are still in play.
Speaker 1 (40:19):
Chargers minus four at New England. As long as we're
talking about Harbaugh tend to like teams favored. JK. Dobbins
should play Gus edwards out which side of a leen?
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Oh, I totally lean Chargers, And this is a walking
into a hornet's nest. Like in any other year you
mentioned the favorites. Right, in any other year, we're playing
the Patriots. Here, we're playing a team that's out of
it at home more than a field goal underdog, a
(40:50):
team traveling that's fighting to make the playoffs. Every trend
will tell you against the spread. In this scenario, the
underdog is the right play. But for what we just
talked about, I think Harbaugh's a brilliant coach. I think
that teams are making more aggressive decisions so they're scoring
(41:10):
more points. I think that the fact that the most
teams are starting field position at the thirty yard line
is getting them closer to scoring in the other side
of the field and making them more comfortable on fourth
and four from the forty going forward instead of kicking
a field goal.
Speaker 4 (41:26):
And so I think that's one of the reasons why.
Speaker 3 (41:29):
We're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and favorites
win is there's more opportunity for them to score at
a higher rate in bigger chunks, and it's impacting betting,
like betters are not having a great year. You know,
Favorites have gone seventy one percent straight up this year,
just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since
(41:51):
two thy thirteen, teams getting over sixty percent at the spread.
So we talk about fading the public. We want to
be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting
over sixty percent of the spread, covering fifty six percent
this year against the spread, home underdogs forty three percent
(42:13):
against the spread this year. That'll be the third least
profitable season since nineteen ninety. So for people like you,
people like me, I want to fade the public. I
want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is.
It's been a rough go of it.
Speaker 1 (42:28):
Man Chad Melman, co host of The Favorites.
Speaker 4 (42:34):
Good luck, Buddy, good luck to all of us.
Speaker 1 (42:39):
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(01:13):
I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and
talking about this awful Seattle six to three went over
the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a
broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over three hundred
yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes.
That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the
(01:35):
first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this
team in this season. I mean, they're using a basically
their third different person is sort of assembling the game
plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an
absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC.
(01:57):
He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really
nice throws tonight. I mean Gino smith Is, I mean
just a ham and egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent.
But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise.
There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises.
Let's let's let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets.
(02:19):
They had Robert Sola for years, an excellent defensive coach.
Joe Douglas whipped on a quarterback in a COVID year,
But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks,
it's very good. He also went and got Davonte Adams
before he got fired, and Deavante and Aaron are connecting.
Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out
(02:41):
and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like
he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic,
accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams.
I mean, it's I don't trust the ownership. You know,
Kevin Warren, the president, has a reputation is more Paula
Titians and football expert Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen,
(03:06):
keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think
he's done a terrible job last year. Four picks. He
took a punter. That's not what I would have done.
They could have, you know, made more moves, eber flues.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
The staff.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
It's a mess. I mean, it's just nothing that's redeemable
about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple
of players Montes Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know,
they've got a couple of players I like, But everybody
in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just
nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was
(03:42):
an unwatchable mess. And all the fears that Kayleb Williams
had privately going to Chicago. I mean I reported this
last year. I got pushedback on it, but people in
his camp were worried this franchise. I mean, look at
Chicago's ports right now, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bears. I don't
have any ability to decipher why not great ownership is
(04:08):
a place to start, but I feel I feel sad
for the kid because and you can see the talent.
I mean you you would have to be trying to
make an argument to say you can't see his talent.
I mean last night or tonight was the first interception
he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween.
(04:28):
And that's why this idea that you can just go
out and get some you know, Ben Johnson and he's
going to change the world. You know, that guy's never
been a head coach at the high school level. There
are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I
don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL,
(04:49):
I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs
are good. And if Oz Mike Frable, I'd sit it
out for a year because I think next year you
could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would
be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out
there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott
does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a
(05:10):
good coach, could be in trouble. So though, those are
really good opportunities, and there's only been three great coaching
opportunities in the last eight years, Green Bay Matt Lafleur,
I think Mike McCarthy and Dallas and getting Justin Herbert
with a Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities.
I wouldn't want the Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I
wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other
(05:33):
takeaway in this game, it's funny the number one position
in the NFL over the last twenty years that has
been the biggest bust rate in the first round is
wide receiver, And obviously, you know wide receivers can make
dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba first rounder,
DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end, and Noah
(05:56):
Fant excellent running back Charboney who's their second back. But
equality Gino Smith can't play. You're eight, nine, nine and
eight with Gino Smith. That's just what it is, you know,
Roma Dunza, what can you do? They've been better off
going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they
went in later rounds and got some prospect I think
(06:17):
from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see.
You know, you look at the Chargers who are going
to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver.
They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe
Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs.
They have two of the best young tackles offensive tackles
in the NFL. Yeah. I was just watching it tonight
(06:38):
and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver
talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzae and DK Metcalf
second rounder in Smith and Jigbin. What's it matter if
you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you
have a mediocre quarterback and I like John Snyder as
general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job,
but I think he made a major mistake last year
(06:59):
in the year before not afting a quarterback. And I
said it at the time. I'm not you know, I'm
not looking through the rear view mirror here. I said it.
Last year. Seattle's roster is really solid d line, solid
skilled positions, good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move.
They're just mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight.
(07:20):
And you know, I just Chicago fans al Michael's touched
on this. I mean, they are being handed just tire
fires and all their sports and come out tonight and
pack that stadium. Is you know, it's a tip of
the cap to one of the great American cities and
sports cities because fans in that city are getting ripped off.
(07:42):
The quality is awful. It's always been a very political
city and it feels like the same with the Bears.
It just feels like a kind of a political hot mess.
So again, I think my first choice would be vable.
I don't know if he'd accept it. I have real
reservations about all these hot shot offensive coordinators a year ago,
(08:04):
Bobby Slowick Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score
this year. C J. Stroud has regressed badly. You know
the Cliff Kingsbury, who I like a lot, but he
struggled as a head coach college and Pro. You gotta
be careful. I mean, there was a time when everybody
was bragging about Shane Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron,
(08:27):
you know, I don't even know where he's at now.
He got booted out of the Bears organization. So I think,
what a franchise is broken? You got to you got
to get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit Harbaugh, Mike Framele.
That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess.
I've said before that I'm I'm willing to change my
(08:48):
mind if I get no information. And I was thinking
about watching the Packers tonight about I'll give you an
example of something I radically changed my mind on. So
I would say, forty years ago, I liked the Olympics
far more than the World Cup. And the reason was
is at forty and forty five years ago and I'm,
you know, fifteen years old, twenty years old, college student,
(09:09):
high school student, and as somebody that absolutely loved sports.
You didn't get three straight weeks of sports. You didn't
have this proliferation of regional networks and local networks. You know,
when I was a kid growing up, fifteen years old,
you got an NBC Baseball Game of the week. You know,
I lived in around Seattle. I couldn't get Mariner games
(09:29):
except on radio. You couldn't watch Mariner games. And you know,
I was a kid from divorce. We didn't have the
money to go to Mariner games. It was a two
and a half hour drive. I lived on the beach
in Westport, Washington, so you know, like once every five years,
i'd go to a Mariner game. So the Olympics, you know,
for a sports obsessed fifteen and twenty year old, was
(09:50):
three straight weeks of sports. It didn't matter that I
didn't care about the sports at that point, I had
never skied. It didn't matter. I'd watch the Winter Olympics.
I wasn't in track, I didn't care. I watched the
Summer Olympics. It didn't matter. I still don't care about
Olympic sports, most of them. But it was three straight
weeks of sports. And then you have over the course
of the last forty forty five years, this proliferation of
(10:11):
cable and again all these networks. I can turn on
my television any day of the week and get twenty games.
I mean, you can fish around on a Tuesday and
get you know, during the baseball season, I can watch
every baseball team. So the Olympics now today don't feel
as special to me because I didn't care about the
sports and the Olympics then or now. But the fact
(10:33):
that you got three straight weeks of sports was really unique.
Now it's not, And so now you could have the Olympics.
I'll watch the opening ceremonies, maybe a couple events. I
just don't care. But I love the World Cup. Some
of that is I worked at two networks with World
Cup and soccer analysts and experts, so I'm around more
(10:56):
soccer people, and frankly, you know, four years, you know
it's something new, it's something fresh. I mean, how many
NBA games, how many football games? Can I watch? The
quality of soccer is great. I know more about soccer.
It doesn't matter if it was the other place or Fox,
I'll watch more soccer. A lot of my adult friends
(11:17):
have given up baseball and they're more soccer friends fans
on a Saturday morning, they'll watch English Premier League, you know,
And I have a lot of friends like that. I've
also gone to Europe more in my life, so I'm
just more I'm just more into the World Cup than soccer.
I've totally changed my opinion on that. And this is
where I get back to the Packers. I always thought
not having an owner was a disadvantage to the Packers.
(11:40):
Is that having a Stan cronkey who can literally as
he's on the tarmac true story of flying out of
the country can tell Sean McVay, all right, go for it,
Go get Matt Stafford, Like you know, it's gonna be expensive.
I'm gonna pay for Jared Goff in Detroit and Stafford
in LA. Let's go for it. Big advantage. But I'm
(12:01):
watching the Packers tonight and think about this. Ten of
thirty two teams in the NFL, thirty one percent of
the NFL has five wins or fewer for a couple
weeks to go. So the Saints have five and they'll
lose tonight Carolina. The Jets in Chicago have four, four
and eleven. Vegas Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville and New England are
(12:25):
three and twelve, and the Giants are two and thirteen.
So that's ten of thirty two teams. That was only
five last year. It's doubled. That is a really really
large bottom and unwatchable part of the NFL feels very
much like the NBA. It really does. I mean thirty
(12:46):
percent of the NBA or more as unwatchable. And I
think there are two reasons for that number.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
One more and more.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Because a rule changes and culture. Quarterback just means more.
I mean, there's only one great quarterback in the NFL
that's not going to make the playoffs. Joe Burrow, cheapest
owner in the league, terrible defense, shaky o line, and
he's still fighting for a playoff spot. They may make it.
Statistically very little chance, but they may make it. He's
(13:16):
the only great quarterback that won't make the playoffs. If
you have one year in, if you have a good
rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels, bon Nix, you're in. Michael Pennix,
my guess now is going to win the remaining games
for Atlanta. They'll be in. If you just have a
competent rookie quarterback, a Pennex down the stretch, Bononix, Jayden Daniels,
You're in. So quarterbacks more important than ever. And number
(13:40):
two is billionaire owners. Now the poorest owners a billionaire
and it wasn't like that ten years ago. And billionaire
owners are less patient. Firing as staff and having to
pay forty five million dollars is more of a rounding air.
And so you have more chaos among coaching staffs and
more chaos in the coaching community. So between it's more
(14:03):
quarterback centric and more impulsive owners, you just have more
hot messes in the NFL. And I'm watching tonight. I mean,
I'm one of these guys that can sit down and
watch almost any NFL team. Giants unwatchable, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas,
hard to watch, Carolina with Bryce Young not can to
(14:26):
watch it, a little, Jets, Aaron Rodgers. I'll watch Chicago,
I'll watch Saints tonight, unwatchable. So it's just interesting. It's
something I've really changed my mind on is that having
an owner I always thought was a huge advantage, but
I think Green Bay going forward having no owner because
(14:47):
I now believe because of the impulsive nature of billionaires,
richer owners, less patient, more impulsive. There's only about four
to five great owners. I think the Hunt family in
Kansas City's excellent. Stan Kronkey with the Rams is really excellent.
You know, Robert Kraft. People will argue he's frugal but
(15:08):
pretty solid owner. But there's a lot of average to
below average owners right now. There's more good quarterbacks and
good coaches in the NFL than great owners. And I
think going forward, you're allowed to be much more patient.
I mean you're allowed to sit Aaron Rodgers on the
bench for three years and grow. You couldn't do that
if you had an owner. No way you could have
(15:29):
a first round quarterback and not rush him onto the field.
The owner would be harping every year. There's no way
you could have Jordan Love sit for three years as
Aaron was getting prickly and high maintenance and passive, aggressive,
and owner would have stepped in and said, ship him,
let's play the kid. Just why do you think Green Bay,
(15:50):
more than any NFL franchise, can keep using this formula
drafting you know, high end quarterbacks first round and not
playing him for three years. Could not do that even
with a good owner. You couldn't do it, there'd be
too much pressure. I mean, I think you'd be surprised
how often owners listen to sports talk and listen to fans.
(16:16):
Gms are too busy to listen, so are coaches. Players
don't really care. Billionaire owners who have people under them
want to get the temperature of fans. In the media,
and I mean, there's no question that New York media
is influenced. Woody Johnson influenced by the New York media
firing Robert Sala and nobody everybody was banging on him.
(16:39):
And if Woody Johnson's not listening, his kids are listening.
We've heard stories about Woody Johnson's kids having influence. So
I think it's a real advantage for green Bay going forward.
And I believe strongly in this, and I never used
to think it is that as the wealth and the
net worth has gone up ten times for owners, you
(17:01):
don't have to worry about Brian guden Kunst, Mark Murphy.
Who are they answering to the packers board And it's
you know, not a lot of power there. So you know,
I'm Washington green Bay, and I don't think it's a
coincidence that they have been able with the last two
star quarterbacks to just let them sit for three years.
(17:22):
No way in the world could you do that with
an owner, even a good owner. So tip of the
cap to the Packers. Well, it's the most wonderful time
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Speaker 1 (18:53):
All right, here we go another edition of Sharper Square
Chad Milman. Cost to the favorites. I we'll have a
couple of college games in here as well, because of
I think some of the lines are work in our favor.
By the way, I enjoy the college football playoff. You know,
first rounds of the NCAA tournament. First rounds of the
(19:16):
tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect I suspect
going forward, the second round will be reseeded. That would
be my guess. It will expand to fourteen or sixteen teams.
I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to
the tournament.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
What say you, yeah, totally. I feel like two things
out of this one. The first point you just made
every year in March Madness, the first round has you know,
sixteen fourteen blowouts and two great games, and then like
(19:53):
but everyone remembers the great games. The argument will expand
the field, and then all of a sudden you're gonna
span the field and going to be a MAC team
that ends up be upsetting a Big ten team at
twelve to five scenario. You're going to have that in
college football one day. I don't worry about it. Also, two,
you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State, after
(20:15):
Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after SMU
was getting it handed to them by Penn State. I
was in a tech chain with a bunch of IU
buddies right and I was saying, you can guarantee right
now next year over correction for SEC and strength of schedule,
(20:38):
you get seven SEC teams. You'll get two Big ten
teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State. You'll get
Clemson out of the ACC. You'll get who Cares out
of the Big twelve, and you'll get Boise State, right
because you won't get the at large team. You won't
(20:59):
get the third Big Ten team because now the committee
is too scared because of all these blowouts.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
So you're now you're gonna get just.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
The SEC and when those teams are blown out in
the first round, then you expand and you're like, ask,
We're just gonna let everybody in and hopefully we get
some upsets sometime down the road.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
That's my take, all right, So we'll have some college
football picks. We'll start with the NFL Broncos plus three
and a half head coach Sean Payton with extra time.
They played on Thursday. Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think
people are overreacting to just how good Joe Burrow is.
They can't stop people offensive coach extra time. Listen, they
(21:35):
outplayed the Chargers for the first half, and you know,
then Justin Herbert just did what great quarterbacks do. He
took the game over. This one jumped out to me
as an overreaction. Broncos plus three and a half sharper square.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow.
The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game.
Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and
make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going
to get sacked. He's purouetting into full on dives and
(22:12):
throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad
that he had no choice but to look like someone
who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of
holds the ball. That's kind of his mo. He wants
to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it
to Higgins, he wants to get it to Jamar Chase.
I would want to do that too, So it's not
(22:32):
entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will
get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos
have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they
don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost
got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad
the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some
stats about bow Knicks that should make you feel more
(22:53):
comfortable about this, because I betted at three and a
half bow nicks against bad defenses, so defense is below
the fifty percent rashold the cross a variety of metrics
in the NFL, of which the Bengals are won seven
or zero straight up and against the spread, twenty nine
points per game, thirteen touchdowns, two interceptions. The Broncos are
ranked as a better team than the Bengals across the
(23:15):
board in all DVA metrics, like it's over inflation on
the Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals Joe
Burrow looking like a superhero.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Literally another game that jumped out to me. I don't
like to bet, I don't like debt bad teams. But
the Saints probably the worst humiliation in the league this year,
a standalone Monday night football game didn't score and it
almost looked like they quit. Now they're at home getting
a point against the horrible Raiders team sharper square.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
I don't even know what to say, Colin.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
In all the years we've been doing this, I will
come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or here,
and try to get you'd have bet the ugliest team
in the worst game, and you're like, no, not betting
a game. I don't want to watch not betting a
bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before we
came on the show, and I was thinking, all right,
(24:13):
what game am I going to get him to bet
that He's like, I haven't asked about it. It was
the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the
fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're
betting the Saints here like they're getting They just got
blown out in prime time humiliated Historically, Historically, you bet
that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that they're playing JV players,
(24:33):
it doesn't matter who their quarterback is, they're at home,
they're as as a dog. They just got blown out.
Every sort of trend says you play that team. On
the other side, the Raiders. Look, they beat up on
the Jags, but let's not be fooled. They had a
ten game losing streak and the Jags kept turning the
(24:53):
ball over. So I wouldn't be too anxious to bet
on the Raiders as road favorites in this. But give
me the Saints. Now, I gotta scramble and think of
what my other game I'm going to try to get
you to bed is well.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
I like the Falcons plus floor the Commanders, and the
reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was
a hero at the end, but he just tried to
give that thing away early. I think Michael Penix is
really good. I think they have a good offensive line
will hold the Commander's pass rush off. Four points is
a lot. I do not. I think the Falcons are
gonna be competitive. Listen, They're playing for a division title,
(25:30):
all right. This is a big game for them. So
this is not like the Commander and the Commanders aren't
going to get home field advantage. The Falcons can win
home field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It
just seems to me, again it wasn't that they just
beat the Giants. It's not just that, but Pennix's accuracy.
Greg Cosell talked about it this week. This kid has
(25:52):
an arm I don't care if it's windy. I like
the Falcons plus four sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 3 (25:59):
Wise, guys, this down from four and a half to four.
I'd be surprised if it isn't a three and a
half or lower. By the game. A lot of the
reasons you just indicated, Michael Penix had a lot of
fans into the draft, A lot of professional betters don't forget.
The draft has become a huge betting event. Professional betters
(26:19):
are digging into game film from college the same way
they're digging into game film on a week to week
basis now because there's a money making opportunity. There's a market,
right Michael Penix is one of those guys. Not dissimilar
from Jayden Daniels, not dissimilar from bow Nicks, not that
dissimilar from Caleb Williams.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
A ton of film on the guy.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
He played a lot of college football, and some of
the reasons why these guys who are coming in and
having successes because they played so many games. We saw
how accurate he could be. I love watching Penicks throw
like I think his ball is so pretty. And also
I don't think in a primetime game he is someone
who would be by the lights the way other rookies might.
(27:02):
He's played in massive games. Talk about college football National Championship.
That's a big game. I don't care if it's in
college like that has huge steaks, So he's been in spots.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
He's older. I like it too.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The
Bills slip walked sleepwalk through their win over New England.
So you get those when you're a dominant team. The
Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now
(27:38):
you've got Aaron Rodgers is not sure he's coming back.
There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last
six to eight weeks. But I think Buffalo is a
significantly better team. Jetsro a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson
is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here.
(27:58):
I think Buffalo also watch the Ravens and the Chiefs
flex and play brilliantly. His favorites, there's a separation. You know,
I don't like big favorites. I'm gonna take Buffalo minus
eight and a half off all horrible winning performance Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (28:14):
So it's a little square.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
The numbers moved, you know, it's moved in the Jets direction.
I can't fault you if you want to do this.
Everything you just said is are all the reasons why
I was on the Bills last week.
Speaker 4 (28:28):
I thought they'd want to flex.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson throwing
five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back
in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP.
It didn't happen right Drake may was running, he was
throwing accurately.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
Obviously different scenario. I lean into the Bills again. To
be honest, I.
Speaker 3 (28:51):
Feel like everything you just said about the Jets is true,
which is why I would want to back the Bills.
Aaron Rodgers had been healthy for the past three weeks.
He's now got a minor MCL issue on his knee.
This team is a train wreck. I was all over
the Jets last week. Whise guys were in the Jets
last week. You cannot count in the Jets because the
(29:15):
decision making of jeff Elbrick is so bad. He does
not seem to understand the basic constructs of when to
go four and fourth down, situational play clock management. If
the Jets kick a field goal, I'm fourth and four
from the Rams twelve yard line. Last week, they're up
twelve to six, and that's the ballgame. Like the Rams
(29:37):
were not doing anything. Instead, he twice went fourth and
fourth downs and that's basically when the Rams won the game.
So it's hard to bet on the Jets because jeff
Elbrick is just so bad.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
At this.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
One more NFL game. This line's moved back and forth.
Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the Bucks.
Tampa's the better team, but all make the argument in
the last month. Bryce Young is playing like a number
one pick and c. J. Stroud's playing like a number
two pick. The Panthers can move the ball, They've got
(30:12):
a good coach, they can move the ball. Tampa's dinged up.
I think they'll win, but division game a hot quarterback,
it kind of feels like an easy one.
Speaker 3 (30:24):
Sharper square, totally sharp. I haven't understood this line all week.
The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and
a half, it went down to eight. Now it's at
seven and a half because money has been coming under
the Panthers. I think you're good until seven. You know,
at seven you just sort of leave it alone. You
want to get the hook off of that key number.
A lot of games to end on seven. That's when
(30:45):
we talk about key numbers, three, seven, those are the
biggest ones. What's interesting about this game is a month
ago they played it in Carolina, Tampa was a six
and a half point favorite on the road, one in
overtime because Tuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal
range for the Bucks. Right, So now you take this
(31:08):
game to Tampa. Tampa is only a point and a
half better. When the line came out, went from six
and a half to eight. Right, Normally home field is
three points. What that's telling you is two things. One,
bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers. They started off one
and seven against the spread. Bryce Young was terrible. Professional
betters had been betting, betting betting the Panthers. I'm sure
(31:29):
listeners remember early in the year. I was all over
the Panthers. Bryce Young two point zero is everything you
just said. He's rolling out of the pocket using his legs,
incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket, taking really hard hits.
He's been great. He's been a really good quarterback, much
better than CJ. Stroud, Like you said, so, bookmakers have
(31:50):
adjusted to that. To me, eight was still a little
too high. Wise, guys agree, you're sharp. Take the Panthers
a college football line.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
It jumps out to me. I don't believe you can
win a national championship with a bad defense. That's why
I think Texas and Ohio State probably play for the Natty,
and I do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at
least in play to play for the National Championship. Oregon's
defense is bad. Boise State ran on it, Ohio State
did whatever they wanted on it. Penn State did whatever
(32:23):
they wanted against the Ducks. I'm trying to forget the
Tennessee game because it was in Columbus, but Ohio State
has played in the Rose Bowl before. Whether it's not
a factor. I said before the season, Oregon's gonna beat
Ohio State at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in
(32:43):
the rematch. It's under a field goal, I'd take the
Buckeye sharper square.
Speaker 4 (32:48):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
Look, that's the sharp side right now, right and that's
where the money is. And when you see money and
sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually
get betting percentages and money percentages. Money right now is
on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State,
which locks to Michigan, lost to Oregon, has had a
lot of drama questions about Ryan Day, the fact they
(33:11):
beat up Tennessee the way they did. Oregon has been
out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a
lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said,
So that's the way the money has been going in
this game. Look, it's fascinating. It's rare you're going to
get the second ranked, third ranked whatever it is team
(33:32):
to be the favorite over the number one ranked team.
But that's the spot we're in because of everything you
just said.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
All right, there's a game I want you to kind
of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both
their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The
Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six,
it's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well,
so from time to time the Rams can feel like
(34:06):
a road team at home. This won't be one of
these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach.
The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're
better than the line. That Jets game was built for
them to lose early game, cold weather, good defense, and
they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's
(34:26):
six to six and a half. I have to bet
the Rams. I know it's divisional Sharper square. If I
like the Rams.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams. But
this is sort of the nuance of the betting business
is getting the best of the number. This game on
Sunday Night opened Rams at minus four. So I'll do
the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night
on the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 4 (34:54):
We'll do it go on air at seven thirty. We'll
do it live.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
We're off air before the Sunday Night GEME. The timing
is relevant here because we will preview the games that
we like the most first glance, you know, gut instinct,
not having done any research for the following week. This
game stood out immediately we started talking about the Rams
minus four. Why is this number solo? The Rams just
(35:23):
got out of a trap game against the Jets and
they won. The week before, they got lucky, the Niners
dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners in a monsoon.
Now they're going home, chance to clinch the division against
a team that is down. James Connor injured. We saw
him practicing but still limping. Offensive linemen injured. Not a
(35:45):
very good defense. A coach who doesn't know how to
keep his team up yet. The way they say Sean
McVay would, or even Mike McCarthy did with the Cowboys
against the Bucks. The number during that show went from
four to four and a half to five to five
and a half. Thirty minutes, it moved a point and
a half. By Monday morning it was six. And so
(36:09):
when you're talking about why isn't it sharp to bet
the Rams now, because the wise guy's been betting it
since it was at four, four and a half, five,
five and a half, and a little bit at six
until it got to six and a half. It got
to seven, and wise guys started betting the Cardinals at seven.
Speaker 4 (36:25):
Again, the Rams are the right side, but if you.
Speaker 3 (36:29):
Want to win as a better long term then you
have to have enough discipline to choose the best of
the number and then walk away. If you don't feel
like you're getting it. You could still bet the Rams
at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning,
but it's not going to be a sharp side at
six and a half.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
All right, I gotta tell you I've had a lousy
year betting, but so far I've got seven of eight
division winners. I picked a surprise playoff team every year.
It was the Washington Commanders team that will double the
Vegas win total. It was the Denver Broncos. I said
this on the air today on TV on FS one.
(37:07):
There's the old saying with kids, the days are long,
but the years fly by, and I feel like with
the NFL week to week it's crazy, but over the
course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had
a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs
and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites,
but a lot of favorites. Of one is I'm trying
(37:29):
to think. I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars badly,
but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said
to you, give me your width and the one you'll
plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.
Speaker 3 (37:46):
Oh it's it's interesting. The Width started as the Panthers
just because I loved him. I just thought this team,
this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line. More than anything,
I just thought they were going to be much much better.
It ended up being a w because they started off
so badly and I lost so much on them early
(38:09):
in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that
they got better, and so I'm glad about that.
Speaker 4 (38:15):
To me, the.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
One I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love
Jim Harbaugh and we didn't even talk about that game.
I think he's a football savant and I think that
what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason
why his teams turn around so quickly no matter the
talent level. He knows the rules, he knows strategy, he
(38:40):
knows clock management so well. What he did at the
end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a
brilliant coach, was a masterclass.
Speaker 1 (38:50):
Right.
Speaker 4 (38:51):
He takes the time out so they have to punt.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
The punk leads to the roughing the returner, the personal
file that leads to the free kick, that leads to
the Chargers having momentum and they win that game going away.
That's good decision making, and you don't see That's what
you don't see from Jeff Albrook. It's what you're not
seeing from Jared Mao, like you see the difference there.
So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because
(39:16):
I thought they'd be good this year and I played
it that way. By the way, I'll also tell you
that the bet that I always love the most, which
I'm still in play for. I always do sort of
a round robin on the teams that are at twelve
to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and
I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you
(39:39):
can usually get those at like between twenty and thirty
five to one. So you bet the Chiefs and the Lions,
you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the
Ravens and the Lions. You bet the Ravens and the Eagles,
and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera,
et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals,
I'm alive with that if they make the playoffs. So
(40:02):
I always like that bet and feel good now that
the Chiefs and the Ravens at least are two of
the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning
of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions,
and I feel good that those matchups are still in play.
Speaker 1 (40:19):
Chargers minus four at New England. As long as we're
talking about Harbaugh tend to like teams favored. JK. Dobbins
should play Gus edwards out which side of a leen?
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Oh, I totally lean Chargers, And this is a walking
into a hornet's nest. Like in any other year you
mentioned the favorites. Right, in any other year, we're playing
the Patriots. Here, we're playing a team that's out of
it at home more than a field goal underdog, a
(40:50):
team traveling that's fighting to make the playoffs. Every trend
will tell you against the spread. In this scenario, the
underdog is the right play. But for what we just
talked about, I think Harbaugh's a brilliant coach. I think
that teams are making more aggressive decisions so they're scoring
(41:10):
more points. I think that the fact that the most
teams are starting field position at the thirty yard line
is getting them closer to scoring in the other side
of the field and making them more comfortable on fourth
and four from the forty going forward instead of kicking
a field goal.
Speaker 4 (41:26):
And so I think that's one of the reasons why.
Speaker 3 (41:29):
We're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and favorites
win is there's more opportunity for them to score at
a higher rate in bigger chunks, and it's impacting betting,
like betters are not having a great year. You know,
Favorites have gone seventy one percent straight up this year,
just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since
(41:51):
two thy thirteen, teams getting over sixty percent at the spread.
So we talk about fading the public. We want to
be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting
over sixty percent of the spread, covering fifty six percent
this year against the spread, home underdogs forty three percent
(42:13):
against the spread this year. That'll be the third least
profitable season since nineteen ninety. So for people like you,
people like me, I want to fade the public. I
want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is.
It's been a rough go of it.
Speaker 1 (42:28):
Man Chad Melman, co host of The Favorites.
Speaker 4 (42:34):
Good luck, Buddy, good luck to all of us.
Speaker 1 (42:39):
The volume
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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