The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 18

A New Year for gamblers has arrived, just in time for the wackiest annual week of the NFL regular season. Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to talk best bets for NFL Week 18. Together they discuss a number of opportunities for long-suffering underdogs to finally win outright, including a huge number on the Kansas City Chiefs. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more. 

And as a reminder, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is wrapping up! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners ending this weekend. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #herd

 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm alive from
my Tell Me John Holmes Studio, and I'm joined as
always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF,
professional Better Signmon Hunter and U.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
So I'm in Chad. Is it a new year, new Chad?
Or is it same old Chad?

Speaker 1 (00:34):
I love myself. Why would I want to change? I
feel great, I feel optimistic. I feel like my New
Year's resolution. Every year I have won New Year's resolution.
Live up to my potential. That's all I'm going to
try to do every day, try to do something to
make sure I'm living to the fullest of my potential.

(00:58):
And if you do that every day day, then at
the end of the year, you can look back and
say you've achieved great things. Could be as a parent,
as a spouse, as a career journey, as a health journey,
whatever it is. So I don't want to change a thing.

(01:21):
I'm fucking doing great. How about you?

Speaker 2 (01:24):
It's good man, I'm literally the total opposite of you.
I've learned in life. If you don't try it all.
That's the only way to succeed. So yeah, God bless you, Chad.

Speaker 1 (01:33):
It's so funny how different we are. If you listed
sort of your traits, how you approach life, how you
see people, how you view the world, and the same
things for me, people would think you're the old guy

(01:53):
and I'm the young guy, and that you've seen it all,
your world weary, that you have a perspective that comes
from years and years and decades of hard fought experiences,
and I'm just like the irrational optimist who hasn't been

(02:15):
beaten down by the world yet.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
So hour perfect for one another. Brother.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
Today is our NFL Week eighteen Best Bets, episode's last
best bets during the regular season final time, Simon and
I will narrow down our five picks for the favorites
one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by
bet three sixty five. We will get into the foxhil
we will give out our Tommy John Big Balls bet

(02:42):
of the week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets
are boosted moneyline, Underdog Harlay, the Underdog Round Robin, and
so much more. Bets are rolling in lines are moving
decisions that need to be made. As a volume podcast,
Boss Colin Coward likes to say there's a sea of
money out there. As a reminder, the favorite podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet

(03:04):
three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up
using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a bet
for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.
A bet three six y five must be twenty one

(03:24):
or older presenton Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen year older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Okay,
it's my favorite segment. I saw someone the other day

(03:45):
last week. Someone said to me, you know what. My
favorite segment on the show is sharp Calls. So as
always on Thursday during the season, we like to hear
how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation.
We are influential lines move off of these conversations, pros
feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's

(04:07):
do sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.

Speaker 3 (04:14):
Rain telephone range.

Speaker 1 (04:16):
Somebody said, baby, want you do man?

Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yeah, definitely a fun week with all the I feel
like it's a week of just opinions, right, people making
opinions and then kind of making moves based off of
the coach's opinions. Right. That's that's the other thing too.
It's like this week you're really locked in on all
the stupid coaches press conferences and you're trying to read
through the lines of what they're saying here, and let's
start on what sides the pros on the opposite side

(04:42):
of us. So Chad likes the Chargers. I like the Chargers.
They love the Raiders, Like every Prod've talked to you
loves the Raiders on the spot, and I'm not. I
don't get it chat. So that's the game. We have
to break down because I really don't understand what they're
getting from this Raiders side and that they see the
Chargers having a letdown here, not trying or maybe resting starters.

(05:02):
This harball strike you as that guy at all. I
just do not get what they're reading here in this one.

Speaker 1 (05:06):
We've got intel on this and this sounds like it's
going to be a foxil.

Speaker 2 (05:11):
Yeah, just one that really popped out to me. Just
how many guys I talked to that were on the
other side of that one for another game that I
think that I talked about it on Tuesday, that I
really liked Minnesota and that I was gonna probably most
likely bet heavily on Minnesota plus three. I talked to
a lot of pros that love Detroit. So that's a
really fun split game. There's some really smart money on

(05:34):
Detroit and for good reason. Right it's a proven team
that's been there before, and what's going to feel like
a playoff game against Sam Darnold. Like I get their
perspective that they think he's gonna choke and they trust
Golf and they want to put their money behind a
guy like Golf like can't argue against it right. So
that was another one that really jumped out for two
games that I'm on the other side of for games

(05:54):
they like that, we like Chad Bengals. I know a
game we're gonna break down. You know, most guys I
talked here on the same side of us with the Bengals,
Sam goes for this Jaguars game, we love it. Got
up to plus five and a couple of books. Now it's
down to plus four and a half plus four a
couple of books. So it makes sense the smart money's
come in. And obviously Darling, I should have taken I
should have listened to chat, should have made Simon says

(06:16):
the Giants. I don't know a single pro right now
that's on this Eagles team. It just feels like the
exact type of game where Eagles not that they want
to lose, but the coach has already come out and
basically said that they're sitting in a bunch of key
starters and it's most likely going to be the third
string quarterback playing in this game. So yeah, very very

(06:36):
interesting how much money's coming to the Giants. They were
plus three and a half before Syriana came out and
said he's sitting Saquan and a bunch of starters. So
that number now Chad is down to two two and
a half. Like I said, I wish I had made it.
Simon says for the last one again, me and you love.
I don't know how much. Actually I don't know how

(06:57):
much Tad love is. I just love it. I love Tennessee.
Every probably talk you loves Tennessee in this exact spot.
So that's going to be Joe Public on Houston. Only
professionals are going to bet Tennessee, who are two and
fourteen against the spread. So makes sense when I'm talking
to these guys why no one loves this Tennessee side.

Speaker 1 (07:14):
I freaking love it. A couple of games you pinpointed
here that I'm very excited to talk about. Definitely the Chargers.
Definitely Tennessee. And there's a couple others too that I
want to get to. But it feels like there is
a Foxhtle bet there that sometimes it's harder to figure
these out, but I think we know which one it's

(07:35):
going to be. We'll also do our Big Balls Buffalo
at New England. So this one has moved from three
to two and a half. The drama, and you talked
about it the other day about the Patriots and fans
hating the Patriots. It's so interesting because there is a
lot of speculation here in the Northeast and in New

(07:57):
England about Drodmeo. Will the Patriots walk away from Gerard
Mayo after one year? The Crafts personally anointed him as
the Bill Belichick successor while Bill Belichick was still the coach.
Mike Vrabel is now available. Rabel has beloved. Rabel is
a proven head coach who has had great results. We

(08:19):
love Rabel as a coach, especially when he's an underdog.
That to me is always the sign of a good coach,
as you can cover and you can win. So as
an underdog, would they bounce Mayo for Rabel? Rael Mayo
this week has said Drake may is starting, They're going

(08:40):
to play to win. They have the number one pick
if they lose. Line has moved to two and a half.

Speaker 2 (08:47):
Yeah. I could get why Patrisons be so pissed off.
It's like, don't you see what we're trying to do here.
I get why they're so mad about it, But that
conversation about them not picking up Rabel just because relationships
and what they believe in. You know, Mayo might be
a good guy all that. You know, you know when
you know, right, like you know when a guy is

(09:09):
a legit coach and when they're not, and you know,
you can just tell why the plage react him. And
I remember earlier in the year he was just talking
about them being soft and not playing hard and different
things like that, which again wouldn't be a big deal,
but he's saying it to the media like that was
one of the more bizarre interviews. And you know, anyone
that loves football like we do, they know Vrabel's a
better coach. Come on, now, the guy took a Ryan

(09:30):
Tannehill corpse to be the one seat. Like that really
happened in the AFC, which is just mind blowing you
look back on it. I was able to get that
team to be a one seat. So yeah, the question is, Chad,
do we want to bet on Mitchrubisky here in our
final five? That's that's gonna end up end questioning because
we know even with their backups and non starters in there.

(09:51):
I just trust the Bills coaching staff, their scheme, what
they can do, more so than I trust New England
and this line warrants that, right, that makes sense that
they're still a minus two and a half minus two
and a half minus three favorite of most books. But yeah,
like this is another game where me and you obviously
don't like betting favorites. This is not the line. Like

(10:11):
there's a lot of dogs. I just like this week,
so I'll be on Buffalo, But it's not a game
I'm forcunate in there. I just think they're the better team,
and I really wish someone would just explain it. You know,
Mayo that if you win this game, you could get fired,
Like I do think the noise would be turned up
by the fan base. I don't know if Kraft could
avoid that, because it's it's inexcusable to start may here

(10:34):
in my opinion, especially the ship, the hits he's been taking,
Like he got his bell rung last week and he
came right back in. I think the first play he
was in he ran down the field, which is awesome,
like shows he's got art and he's a tough kid.
But at the same time, what's what are we doing here?
Like are we really gonna waste this kid in this
type of game where I just I'm just so against it.
So yeah, from from the betting side Chat two and

(10:56):
a half, I'll bet the Bills, but with very small confidence.
We're betting in misrubisky.

Speaker 1 (11:01):
Yeah, the Crafts have just lost a lot of credibility
with fans over the last twenty four months between the
documentary in which it seemed like Bob Kraft was throwing
Belichick under the boss. Sticking with Mayo in this spot
just could be another blow to the confidence of fans
and the ownership group. Nothing's going to change, It's not

(11:23):
like they're going to get rid of the team, but
this is a real chance for them to make a
substantial move to improve their organization, especially if the Patriots
win this game and lose the first pick. Oh my gosh,
Houston and Tennessee. For seventeen weeks, Simon, we have avoided
the Titans. It might be our greatest success. They have

(11:46):
shown value against power ranking power rankings in nearly every
game they've played. In fourteen of those games you alluded
to this, they did not cover this spread. No matter
what happens in this game, they will go down as
the worst against the spread team since we've been tracking this.

(12:07):
Maybe in NFL history. Evan can confirm that later in
the show, they're currently two and fourteen in week eighteen. Simon,
they are our Simon says, and now we got word
that the wise guys are all over the Titans. Give
it to me, weigh it on me.

Speaker 2 (12:29):
Yeah, And it is interesting when you're reading about what
the Texans are going to do in this spot and
who they are arresting. Obviously CJ is not playing this
a couple of key starters, Nico Collins isn't playing a
bunch of guys winners, says, not playing on the defense.
When you go on the flip side for Tennessee Titans,
everybody's playing like the coach. Not that he scoffed at
any but he kind of laughed. It's like, no, they're

(12:50):
about to get whatever you said, six month vacation after this,
not direct quote from him, but basically gave us a slanted,
like a little look to the reporter being like what
we yeah, exactly what kind of stupid question is that?
So we know the stats, right, Will Levis two and
nine against the spread, Mason Rudolph zero to five against

(13:11):
the spread this season, So it doesn't matter what quarterback
is playing This team is just all around bad. But
like we talked about, they're in this unique position of
people don't understand how desperate teams get for a win,
Like it's it's it's a different type of high, but
it's a high that they crave, right, It's it's something
that you just need it. Every week you lose, the

(13:32):
world looks a little darker, everything feels a little shittier.
Everything sucks, and you just know, especially they talk to
guys in the locker room, why they've been trying so
hard these last couple of weeks, because again they have
not been playing for anything Tennessee. But every week, even
though they've been losing, they still play really hard. I
really think that is something that like you turn on
the tape you can see it. I mean their defense,
like you've been talking all season. I know I laughed

(13:54):
at it, but their defense is like second or third
and giving up yards this season at least amount of yards,
like they've been really good at not teams not moving
the ball against them. The USUS have been right just
giving up touchdowns, like they can't stop teams, it seems
like in the red zone. So yeah, this is to
me is all about the number. There is one really
public book out that there still had Tennessee at plus
one and a half last night. Now even them have

(14:15):
moved to minus one. So even even at this point,
they've followed the professional money because I'm looking the action
app right now. All the tickets, all the tickets are
on Houston. But the money is basically split right, It's
it's it's slanted towards this Tennessee team. So yeah, would
have we would have liked it if they were a dog. Yes,
we definitely mean Chad hate lines that flip. It just

(14:36):
has never worked out for us for the most part.
But and this one, I feel confident that the smart
money is coming on the right side. The money is
moving the way it should. And there's another team Tennessee
that you know, if the Patriots win, they lose, they
could get the one seed. These guys don't care, like
they're like, like we just talked about the same thing
in New England, Like they're they're kind of going the
idea of we just want to win, and I get it.

(14:58):
That's that's part of football, right. No one cares about
the draft picks. They don't know if we be on
the team next year. So this Tennessee team, I just
I could see them trying really hard. On the flip
side with Houston, I just I'm happy to bet against
their second team. There's just a team that to me
was already back going to this game. The whole vibe
of Houston was bad. Now we're getting in their scrubs
for the second team. So I like Tennessee in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (15:20):
Simon goes back to what I said at the beginning
of the show. People just want to live up to
their potential. They just want to try if they want
to feel satisfied with the effort. They want to go
to bed at night know that they gave it their
all and feel good that what they exercised during a

(15:42):
week paid off in some capacity. And the Titans have
just not felt that. And the Titans, from everything I've read,
I've been digging in, you know, reading all that I
can about coaching moves, GM moves, trying to get anything
about some incentive for this week, seems very likely that
the title they're going to bring back their GM, they're
going to bring back their coach, and they're going to

(16:05):
try to find the quarterback that the three of them
together can build this franchise as they they're really thinking about.
They got a new stadium opening in two years, how
can they get better. They're going to give that team
the opportunity and that executive team the opportunity to turn
this thing around and get the right player. They don't

(16:25):
have to worry about sort of tanking or not playing
up to the best of their ability. Agree, I'm with you.
I'm with you. Another one, Jacksonville at Indy. Still the
word on Anthony Richardson. So when you see the reports
about him that he couldn't walk last week, yeah you
couldn't Yeah a week and well yeah, like so. But

(16:49):
they're still saying if he is healthy, he'll playing. But
like we we lean Jags, I think we feel strongly
about it, more strongly about it this week or now
than we did on Tuesday. To me, it's more of
a vibe than anything on the field, right. Jags have

(17:10):
been trying hard, they've been keeping games close. Mac Jones
has been outperforming bad quarterbacks. They won, and the Colts
culturally just feel like they're a little bit lost. And
I think that game took the wind out of them
and is raising a lot of questions about will Shane

(17:30):
Steiken still be there. What is their future at quarterback?
What is happening with their GM who you mentioned the
other day, Chris Ballard has a reputation as a great
GM has not won the division in eight years, a
division that has terrible teams year in and year out.
This is not the NFC north of twenty twenty four.

(17:51):
So they are locked into Trevor Lawrence as their quarterback.
Draft position is not going to mean as much for them.
Normal based on last week's performance, we'd fade the Jags
and want to bit the Colts. But I don't feel
that way this week.

Speaker 2 (18:08):
No, And honestly it's because it is the Colts that
the Jags they historically have matched up really well them.
It was just like we talked about last week with
the Egos and Cowboys. There's just certain teams that teams
can match up really well against. And that same goes
here for this Jacks team that they've always even when
there's you know, ups and downs with the quarterbacks of
their quarterbacks hurt, they've always played really well against this
Colts team and kept games close and usually their games

(18:31):
end up being shootouts, like especially when it's in Indianapolis.
So this to me is all about the number, Like
its number is way too big, way too much. Respective
even if it is Anthony Richardson, I could see it
dropping because I just think the books give more respect
to Joe Flacco. But you know, four and a half
for way too many points for us to pass them.

(18:52):
Like I love this number. I love this Jacks team
and what we just talked about, Like I just the
vibes for this Jacks team just feels so much better.
We're like that I'm going in and winning this game.
That makes more sense to me, so much more than
the Colts winning this game. Colts to me, like they're
they're done. Like half their team feels like they're already
half foot out the door and they're ready to go
on vacation. They're just disgusted with the front office, they're

(19:13):
disgusted with the coaching. And you know, that was one
of the least prepared teams I've seen all season last
week against that Giants team, Like even going back watching
the tape, just defensively, Gus Bradley was just awful. Like, again,
that's a man that's guaranteed to be let go and
on a different team. Next year. So yeah, we're just
simply playing the number year Chad like the match for
this Jags team and just the way they've been down

(19:35):
the stretcher, it's just a team that has not quit.
Surprisingly they've improved in some ways. And I know the
dirty secrets kind of is out right now that Doug
Peterson's basically gone and they're gonna have the guy I
know you want, Ben Johnston from Lions and they're apparently
gonna give him just whatever he wants, which is really
interesting to know. Will he leave the division NFC North
and go down there where it's like I don't know. Again,

(19:57):
he's all line up perfectly for the Bears, where it's like,
you guys are getting the guy who knows the Detroit
offense and how to take down the big bad wolf
for your division. Him going to him and going to
the Jags would be buried the Bears. The Bears just
don't spend enough money or give him enough to do
whatever he wants. And he leaves to go to Jacksonville
just because if they're gonna let him make decisions on
the draft, that's a big deal. Like first time at coach.

(20:18):
Now he gets to make decision on the draft as well.
So yeah, for Jacksonville. We all know that these players,
they seem like they like Doug Pearson. One more, one
more game for Dougie give them. Give me plus four
and a half on this Jaguars team.

Speaker 1 (20:30):
Simon, I one hund believe that Ben Johnson is going
to the Jags. I don't think. I don't think the
Bears have a shot right now. You know, I don't
have any insight, but just knowing the Bears history, knowing
how the Bears manage the coaching interview process, knowing that

(20:54):
they have not been able to overcome, knowing the coaches
have not been able to come overcome over ownership issues
in multiple generations. Other than Mike Dicka.

Speaker 2 (21:06):
John Fox, he's the last one.

Speaker 1 (21:09):
Now. Lovey Smith took him to the Super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (21:11):
Yes, you're right, love was great now and he got
fired in the worst way. Right. They have bad Karmer
from that fire, and of Lovey.

Speaker 1 (21:18):
The Bears fired a coach. You took him to the
Super Bowl and was ten and six the year he
was fired. Yeah, so they've got they've I think they've
got executive staff dysfunction, right, because we don't really know
how involved. Kevin Warren is going to be the new president.
The president in any of these decisions, they've always been cheap.

(21:41):
You can go to the AFC South if you like
Trevor Lawrence. That's the one critical factor. Ben Johnson has
to like what he has in Trevor Lawrence. Right, the
Jags are invested in him. We don't think he's been
that great. He has underperformed. But if you like him
and think he can run your offense, you got a
better chance in winning than you do in the NFC
North over the next three to four years. And that's

(22:03):
your horizon as a coach. So would not be surprised
at all if he blew off the Bears and went
to Florida where it's warm and you don't pay taxes,
and you know you got a better shot.

Speaker 2 (22:15):
Though, what's that I keep going, I don't hear you.

Speaker 1 (22:19):
Said before we get to Washington at Dallas. These are
the final days of our favorite pick'em contest. Saturday games
are not in the contest this week, but we've got
d Winsenburg in first place with sixty one points and
nine entries at fifty six points or more. A dog

(22:40):
fight to the finish First place is forty grand, second
is ten grand, Third place is five grand. Cash prizes
for the whole top ten. Excited to crown a winner.
It's not going to be us. Hopefully we get the
winner on the podcast, whoever it is. The invite is
open Washington at Dallas. We lean Dallas on Tuesday. The

(23:01):
line has moved in that direction. It's four and a half.
Did you see the clip of Eagles fans cheering Jerry
Jones in Philly last week?

Speaker 2 (23:12):
Yeah? Yeah, ultimate troll job, so.

Speaker 1 (23:15):
Good and Jerry's just smiling, laughing, you know, just so funny.
Just great to see Jerry owning it all. I think
it's better than fifty to fifty. Mike McCarthy stays. If
it's Jerry Jones's choice, he might leave because his contract

(23:35):
is up and he can go look anywhere he wants
to look. But fascinating subplot here. I do think there's
been a sea change and sort of people believing McCarthy
will stay if he has the option and Jerry Jones
wants him to and he decides that's the best option
for him. If he leaves, it might be because he
wants to leave. I don't think that has an impact

(23:57):
on this game. I just thought it was interesting.

Speaker 2 (24:00):
Yeah, I saw a chef. He talked about how basically
all of his assistants US assistance as well or deals
are done, so he'd basically need to re sign all
the guys on his coaching staff. So yeah, it's as
an Eagles fan, I kind of want them to bring
McCarthy back, just because I fear the unknown that if
they do get a guy like Vrabel, that would be

(24:21):
disastrous for us. But yeah, it's Jerry's in a weird
spot and this Cowboys team is in a weird spot
where it's like me and you both love it because
of the number and the letdown we expect from Washington
in this exact game. But this is another game I'm
betting with very little confidence just because my fear is this,
this Cowboys team is basically just on their last leg.

(24:43):
Like they have guys who've had big injuries, they've come back,
they've played through it at this point, but you can
just tell that, like even that Eagles game, they just
were not They were not into that game at all.
So this is gonna be another game where the public
is going through hammer the Commanders. We'll see if they
get lucky again, Chad, because this is again another good
number against a team that's overvalued in the Commanders. And

(25:04):
you know, we've seen it all season, like the fourth
down variants for the Commanders has just been absolutely insane.
I think in that game we bet, I don't know
if they went three for three or two for two,
but it felt like every time they needed a big
play on fourth down, it happened for him. And you
know it's historical, the the sex sex rate they've had

(25:24):
on fourth downs. It's just insane this season. So we
know what this BET's gonna come down to. It's gonna
come down to fourth downs again. It's just it's just
how it's been betting against this Washington team. If they capitalize,
me and Chatter most likely gonna burn. But this is
just a number that's way too big, Like I think
i'd probably if this was a fully healthy with Ceedee Lamb.

(25:44):
You know again, obviously this is different if Dak's playing,
but if it's ce d Lamb with Cooper Rush, Okay,
we make this what three three and a half? Yeah,
the point the point bump makes sense, right, there should
be four four and a half at this point, but
it's just a spot where it's you know, we've seen
the storical data, the teams that are playing for playoff
positions going against a team that you know, way below

(26:06):
five hundred, that have not been good this year, they
tend to cover in this week. That's why we love
betting these type of dogs in the final week of
the season. Just historically we've seen it, right, teams kind
of play up to the moment, try to be the spoiler. Obviously,
they're not going to knock Washington out of the playoffs here,
but if they do beat them, you know, Washington now
is go face Philly. That's that's a big deal. So
pretty pretty interesting what the Cowboys might do. Hear everything

(26:28):
I've read, it seems like, you know, Michael Parson is playing,
all their starters are playing. The only guy really missing
is going to be CD. Obviously.

Speaker 1 (26:34):
Yeah, and this Commander's defense is terrible. And I'm not
afraid of betting Cooper Rush as a four and a
half point dog in this spot. Even without CD. He's
just been an effective backup quarterback and the Eagles have
been the one team that he really can't right unlock right,
And you look at the other games and I think

(26:55):
that the problem for this year is that his first
game was against the Eagles and it was so bad
that it depressed the market and the Cowboys, and I
think a lot of people have missed the value because
they're only thinking about that first Eagles game. And then
he started to play a little bit better and they
had to run, and then this past week he hit
the Eagles again, And now I think the Commanders are

(27:15):
overvalued because of what they did against the Falcons, but
also what the Cowboys did against the Eagles. I still
think you're getting pretty nice price. And the Cowboys here,
I don't know if it's going to be in our
final five, but I'm not as afraid of the Cowboys
in this spot as you are, or the Commanders for
that matter. I think their defense is pretty bad.

Speaker 2 (27:37):
And I just went not to cut you off. On Tennessee,
that line's running now, so basically everywhere that had them
as a dog basically has them up to minus one
and a half now. So oh wow, Yeah, the money,
the money started to come in now here on Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (27:49):
All right, Carolina at Atlanta.

Speaker 2 (27:52):
One more time.

Speaker 1 (27:55):
It's time to celebrate. Look, Carolina plus eight, we both
love the Panthers. On Tuesday, I would imagine we still
love the Panthers. The lines move from eight and a
half to eight. We cannot quit the Panthers right now, Simon.
To remind people of the stakes. If the Bucks win,

(28:15):
they're in. The Bucks lose then and the Falcons win,
they're in. The games are at one o'clock, there will
be some scoreboard watching if it's at any point. Bucks
are blowing out the Saints and there's no chance the
Falcons are going to get in. The tide in this
game could change, we could find the back door, but
generally we just like Bryce Young, We're going to continue

(28:38):
to back Bryce Young. Give us the Falcon, give us
the Panthers.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
Yeah, we can't quit them. And honestly, and my confidence
in this one has been coming from the breakdown of Pennix.
And I know, again it's only two games, it's a
very small sample. I get that, but it's actually pretty
interesting statistically, how you know, I might have overrated them
a little bit through his first game, and that he
actually isn't that great of a passer right now, and

(29:04):
he's still kind of working three things which we expect,
right It's it's his second now this will be his
third start. So that's that's a lot of the confidence
to me is that you know, this is a huge
spread for a guy like him. And we saw in
that Giants game, right that they were kind of losing
that fighting, they couldn't find themselves and all of a sudden,
you know, drew through a pick six and that kind

(29:24):
of reset that whole game where Okay, once they got
the lead again, they can lean back onto the running.
So that would be the key for me. It's like,
can they stop Robinson, which no one has done in
the last ten weeks, right, Like, Robinson has barbably been
a top three running back now this season and he's
been dominant and we know me and Chad no, because
we've been betting them all season. Panthers cannot stop the run,

(29:45):
like their best.

Speaker 1 (29:46):
One hundred yards rushing aloud in five straight weeks.

Speaker 2 (29:51):
Right. So again, it's because when their best d lineman
got knocked out either week one or Week two, and
it was like okay for the season. Yeah, yeah, that's
the end of their defense right there, Like that's that's
the guy for them, and that's the fear here. That's
the reason mean and Chad are getting eight points here
just because of that. It's uh we hope bryceh Ian
canna keep this in this but this is really gonna

(30:12):
come down to stop in the run and putting this
on in panics, like you need to stack the box.
Make this kid beach with his arm, just because, like
I said, he's high variance in his throats, like he
throws uncatchable balls and you know it. I don't know
if it looks weird to you, but seeing him throw
left it is different. Like we talked all the time,
that is a difference for these receivers catching a left
your throat then already thrown, it just looks different coming

(30:34):
out of his hand to the receivers. So this to
me just feels like an inflated line, especially because Carolina
just got rolled absolutely blown out the week before and
they've been good to us. Bouncing back then Bernie me
and Chad one last time would not be shocking to
the least. But I just can't help myself. I believe
in Bryce shawng believe in their offense, and I really
do think will be ey there have a chance to

(30:55):
when this game out right or easily have a chance
to back throw the summer. It just feels way too big,
way too much respect to this Atlanta team.

Speaker 1 (31:02):
I also don't worry about effort in this game. This
is a team where they know the coach is going
to be back. They're starting to get a pretty good
sensuve of who their quarterback is. They've built momentum in
the latter half of the year. They don't want to
end the year on a shitty game with a bad
taste in their mouth. They want I think it matters
to win the last game of the year if you're

(31:22):
a bad team and be able to see positivity and
have confidence and feel like you have some kind of momentum.
So I don't have a problem back in the Panthers
here at all. It's gonna suck, We're gonna do it.
Chicago plus tennant Green Bay. This line has moved up.
You like the Bears on Tuesday at nine, it's gone

(31:44):
up to ten. The Packers need to win and they
need the Commanders to lose to move up from the
seventh seed to the sixth seeds. So there will be
some scoreboard watching and there are some trends that back
the Bears here. This was one of the saddest things
of all the things about the Bears that make me sad.

(32:05):
ESPN this week did a survey of one hundred and
eleven NFL players of the hardest places to play in
the NFL. One two and three were Kansas City, Seattle,
and Minnesota. Actually four was Philly, by the way, and
Matt Mitchell. Five was Buffalo. But the Bears Soldier Field

(32:34):
tied for thirty first after the Oakland Colosseum. I know
the games in Green Bay this week, but I'm thinking
about the Bears. How pathetic is that tie for thirty
first after Oakland Colisseum. I'll remind you they don't play
NFL games in Oakland anymore.

Speaker 2 (32:50):
I mean, honestly, it's pretty shocking, just because I always
thought Chicago is just the toughest place to play, because
not only the weather's brutal, but you guys, even when
you're terrible, you sell out and the fans are loud.
So that's that's interesting. Maybe they're not as loud as
we perceive on TV.

Speaker 1 (33:04):
They ruined the stadium when they built the new Alien
spaceship inside a silver field. It ruined the acoustics. It's
not as loud as it used to be. And also
like the team's just bad. It's been bad for so long.
People leave games early, and if it's really really cold,
then people who have season tickets are selling their tickets

(33:25):
at the end of the year. So you're getting you know,
randoms who sometimes are super fans. Sometimes it's a holiday gift.
They're just taking their kids. Like I know it because
like I have so many friends who have season tickets
or have had season tickets over the past of forty years.
So it's not as loud as you would think.

Speaker 2 (33:46):
It is.

Speaker 1 (33:47):
Not like eighty five when I was sitting in the
twenty yard line against the Giants and the Rams during
the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (33:55):
Those are the days. Take me back to eighty five, baby,
damn it.

Speaker 1 (33:58):
Eighty five, duge on Gail, Oh my god, it was
just amazing.

Speaker 2 (34:04):
People were smoking cigarettes in the stadium still damn. Those
were the days.

Speaker 1 (34:08):
They were like they were passing me drinks and I was,
you know, fifteen years old.

Speaker 2 (34:12):
Put a little hair in your chest. You're right, I
don't want to bet this one. I don't know what
was wrong with you. On Tuesday. I did bet this
Chicago team. But no pros are on this game. I
feel like most guys are avoiding this game for different games.
And after reading the Emage article gave me littlegit zero
confidence in this Bears team. I think they're one and
ten straight up in their last eleven against this Green

(34:34):
Bay team. And it's just, you know, like you said
on Tuesday, that just it's not even a rival anymore, right,
It's just so one sided. It's it's brutal. So I
might be eating these words come Sunday and the Bear
shock the world and do finally pulling up set off
And I'm an idiot because I didn't hammer this and
stick my chest out in this one. But there's just
other dogs I like better. And you're right, like the

(34:56):
fear for me is that locker room for Chicago. It's
just totally out, like they're just totally gone, totally giving
up on this team in this front office, and they
do know that this is not the coaching staff for
next year, So you're right, there's really no incentive other
than personal incentives to play for this one. So yeah,
hate it all.

Speaker 3 (35:13):
All.

Speaker 2 (35:14):
Everything coming out of Chicago right now was just so negative.
I don't want to be putting money on this one.

Speaker 1 (35:18):
Reminder, Bears have not won a road game on a
Sunday since our friend Nick Foles did it for them
in December of twenty one. All Right, the game that
we talked about earlier, Sharp Calls New York Giants plus
two at Philly Philly was fourth toughest to play a
Buffalo fifth Saquon will not be playing. How do you
feel about that?

Speaker 2 (35:38):
A wise man? One set of best chad records can
be broken. Banners hang forever. So yeah, what do I
want him to break the record so I can shove
it down Giants' faces?

Speaker 3 (35:50):
Like?

Speaker 2 (35:50):
Yeah, I mean, it's been a great day if you're
just an ultimate hater of your division and talking shit
to one another. It's been a fun week, especially on Reddit,
where you know, Giants fan's trying to make its like, well,
Eric Dickerson did it in sixteen games, so it's not
real record. Well I guess OJ did it in fourteen games.
Is that the real record? Or Jim Brown who did

(36:10):
it in ten games? Is that the real record? I mean,
what are we doing here? So it's been a fun
week of just trying to act like they're not pissed
off for you. I don't know, Giants fans they got
to be down the worst out of any fan base
right now in football, especially after losing the number one
pick last week. It was just it's just been too good.
So yeah, Saquon, I could see it in his eyes
and the way he talked about it. He's bummed, right.

(36:31):
He wants that legacy, like he said, that's that's something
amazing to have attached to his last name. But as
someone that knows that Saquan has never had any playoff success,
I think once he gets his first playoff win, that
feeling will go away. He'll realize, like, dude, the ultimate
goal here is to hang that banner. And yeah, Eagles
right now, I mean, so we'll talk about next week,

(36:51):
Like hurts is still not either a concussion protocol like
it's it's it's it's bad if he's if he's got
a really back concussion like that, because that's just those
are the symptoms that just don't go away. Now he's
two weeks in, so yeah, between that, Sequan, you know,
this Eagles team using this as a bye a week.
That's great. Giants just popped back up to plus three

(37:12):
at a couple of really public books, So some smart
money now has coming in on the Eagles here this morning,
which is pretty surprising, but nothing changing my position. I
think the Giants they're going to play hard, and the Eagles,
you know, they're gonna play the rookies, I guess and
a couple other guys. But for the most part, they're
gonna be sitting almost all their starters, especially across the
offensive line. And we expect to be Tamer McKee at

(37:34):
quarterback again, guy making his first start his career. I
know he came in and did well against the Cowboys.
I feel like at that point the Cowboys kind of
had to quit on that game. So yeah, we expect
the Giants to keep shooting themselves in the foot, win
this game, give themselves worst draft capo. But and again,
Evan had an amazing thing in his article about Brian Dable,
Like the guy has been money in these final weeks

(37:56):
of the season. I believe he's five to zero against
the spread in the final two weeks of the season, right, Evan,
So his teams play hard for him. He doesn't really
care about draft position. He's he's got one thing on
mind that's to win. So yeah, this this matchup for
the Eagles, I was really worried about they were going
to play Saequon. But after Ceri in his conversation yesterday,

(38:16):
you know for a fact he's not playing guys like
Lane Johnson's not playing. That's gonna be a big deal, right,
They're gonna be wrestling so many key starters. So yeah,
just take the points here. I just think I get
where the publics come from. They're like, there's no way
Giants went back to back weeks. I get it, but
we always see these final weeks are just weird, right,
These these teams like the Eagles, the best SISCO team

(38:36):
of football, that is not gonna be the same team
on Sunday, right, They're they're not gonna show They're not
gonna show anything defensively, and they're not gonna show anything offensively. Right,
They're just gonna start preparing for the following week. So
I love this spot for this Giants team.

Speaker 1 (38:49):
I saw a clip of.

Speaker 3 (38:51):
A J.

Speaker 1 (38:52):
Brown of Tanner McKee realizing A J. Brown had thrown yeah,
the first touchdown pass end of the stands and he
was handling a great He's like, oh, that's too bad.
And then AJ Brown, who felt so bad about it,
ran over told him that he got it back said
he was so sorry, Like it was just it was

(39:13):
so genuine and authentic, like how badly aj Brown felt
about it. I thought it was a great scene because
like you get to see real connection and like how
these players recognize what a big deal it is to
throw a touchdown pass in the NFL, and it doesn't
matter if you're the first string, second string, third string,

(39:36):
or the high profile, one hundred million dollar temperamental receiver.
He recognized he screwed up and felt terrible for a
guy who has a special moment and fixed it and
then went over and apologize. I thought it was just adorable.

Speaker 2 (39:51):
Yeah, it was hilarious. The guy who called the ball
was like a very classic South Philly looking guy.

Speaker 1 (39:56):
Like yes, like I got you, I got you.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
Flex into him being like you guys are the heart
and sold this team. And then of course Big Don
was the one that came over and got the ball.
It just had all so yeah, very funny.

Speaker 1 (40:08):
That dom thing is is like so easy to explain
as a Philly phenomenon and hard to explain for anyone
who doesn't follow sports or understand Philly sports culture, Like yeah,
there's nobody in the stands. Who if Big Don came
over and said, give me the ball, wasn't going to

(40:29):
give Big Dom the ball, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (40:32):
I just always think it's funny where you think about
all the stuff we don't know about what Big Dom does.
You know, he's the guy showing up at three am
at the police station to get the guy and drive
him home. Like he just he's a do it all guy,
And I just love that he's become such a personality
in Philly.

Speaker 1 (40:45):
I think he's the first guy the cops call. I
think he's the first guy the agents call. I think
he's the first guy anyone calls if there's anything going
down and they need to fix something right away. La
Chargers at the Las Vegas Raiders. So this line's come
down a little bit. You said, the wise guys are
liking the Raiders. I get it. I get it, dude,
Jim Well, I get like, you know, thinking, what are

(41:07):
the Chargers playing for here? They do have some seeding
to play for. They get the five seed if they
win and the Steelers lose, so they will know like
what they're playing for by the time this game kicks off.
It's one of the few games where seating will be,
where the stakes will be determined, and they won't have
to scoreboard watch. But Harbaugh went on the Let's Go
Show with with you know Jim Gray, and Belichick said

(41:29):
he was playing to win the game. That's what I
would fully expect from Jim Harbaugh. I would take that
to me. And he's not resting his starters, and if
there are still stakes to be had, I don't mind
betting the Chargers here. It's like the reason why road
favorites have been winning this year is usually because of
good coaching and limited mistakes from their quarterback. That's what

(41:50):
the Chargers have. It's why we liked him against the
Patriots last week. I think you're getting a lot of
love for the Raiders right now because they're on a
two game win streak. That doesn't fade if the Chargers
have something to play for, and we'll know by the
time we put our picks in.

Speaker 2 (42:05):
I like the Chargers the Raiders, not that they just
beat Jacksonville, but they feel like they kind of got
away with one there right there was like a last
fourth quarter drive and they stole that game and then
they beat the Saints. Other than that, we've seen when
they've played any team that's semi well coached or outside
the Chiefs, right, the Chiefs. Their games are always weird
against the Chiefs. We knew that we took them against
the Chiefs in that exact matchup, but anyone else you

(42:28):
go through their schedule, they just get dominated. Like well
coached teams that are smart, they have a good quarterback
just dominate this Raiders team. That's exactly what we have here.
Like we talk coming to the season, I had doubts
about Herbert being consistent for good reason. Even if he's
been a little inconsistent the second half, he's been great.
Like since he's come back kind of healed from that injury,
that ankle injury, especially the last couple of weeks, you've

(42:50):
really seen him be so confident, pushing the wall downfield,
be totally in tune with this offense at this point,
Like he looked so comfortable in this game. And I'm
happy to know the Chargers hopefully will not be sitting
there because to me, they should just keep their rhythm going. Like, yeah,
they're a team that basically no one's gonna believe for
them in the playoffs. Right, they're a year early at
this point, that makes sense why people don't believe in them,

(43:11):
especially when we're talking about Lamar, Josh Allen and the Chiefs.
It's like, Okay, if it's Mahomes versus him in this
exact scenario, we just think Mahome is gonna get the
best of them at the end of that game. But
in these type of scenarios when he's playing bad teams,
I just feel like Herbert shines, and same with Harball.
So maybe this line movements because what you just said,
maybe the the pros where have been in Pittsburgh being

(43:32):
in Cincy, maybe that's the thought here where it's just
like they're combining these two because they're like, well, the
Chargers will sit their starters because they have nothing to
play for. But you know that's that's a decision, meaning
like you just said, we can make Sunday morning if
we need to. But I'm happy to lock this line
in now because say they do get blown out Pittsburgh,
couldn't this line go up to six? I don't know.

(43:54):
I just I find it very interesting that it has
moved so much. And yeah, I just I love this
charge of team, especially they're playing a bad a bad team.
Their coach is horrible. He's a psychopath. He's not going
to take his foot off the gas. I just feel
like they're gonna go out there and try to whoopball
in this division. Foe.

Speaker 1 (44:11):
Jim Harbaugh is my New Year's resolution spirit animal. I
want to live up to the full, to my full potential.
Jim Harbaugh says they're attacking Week eighteen with an enthusiasm
unknown to mankind.

Speaker 2 (44:27):
Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.

Speaker 1 (44:33):
That's how I'm attacking this show. We didn't come into
the show thinking, all right, it's Week eighteen, can't really
make any predictions. We digested it.

Speaker 2 (44:43):
Yeah, we did the work.

Speaker 1 (44:45):
We watched the press conferences, looked at the trends. We're
coming in here. We're playing to win the week. We
want to go five and out. We want to live
up to our fullest potential. Every single we are the
Jim Harball led Los Angeles Charters of the Favorites Pickham Contest,

(45:06):
Podcasting World.

Speaker 2 (45:08):
You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

Speaker 1 (45:14):
I want to talk about the rams in the Seattle.
I did like him. I liked Seattle at three on Tuesday,
I did make it my executive decision. It's not been
a great category for me this year, but I would
like the full credit at three. It moved to foward
during the show because I'm sharp and people hear what
I'm saying and then they immediately start following me. It's

(45:37):
now six and a half, Like, I'm not sure why
the move happened so late. McVeigh had telegraphed he was
going to rest his starters. He had said it in
his podcast earlier in the week. I talked about it
on Tuesday. He said he was looking forward to seeing
Jimmy Garoppolo and Blake Korum play, so like now he's
confirmed it. I also mentioned Gino has four million in

(45:59):
incentives that he's going for that are relatively easy to get,
so we know he'll be playing. We like the Seahawks
and playing for a new coach. They want to put
good stuff on tape, they want to build momentum. It's
up to six and a half now. We're not going
to bet it put in the contest, but it's amazing

(46:20):
to me that it took so long for it to
get that far, but I.

Speaker 2 (46:23):
Think you just know why it did because he basically
confirmed it, and that's when you really saw the line
shoot up to six six and a half, Like when
he came out and basically said, everyone's sitting and I'm
excited to see Jimmy be playing in this game. It's
like that was to me, that was when the line
really moved, like literally right when he had that press conference.

Speaker 1 (46:40):
So yeah, but it isn't this about finding the edge, right,
Like we had intel and we had information and McVeigh
had sort of telegraphed this when it was at three.
Why are people waiting so long? That's when you want
to bet, when you feel like you can get a
sort of get a jump on competition.

Speaker 2 (47:01):
Yeah, that's what I mean, though maybe they were just
waiting for him to really confirm it before they wanted
to pay powers. I say powers, Yeah, I mean it
depends on when you're been a certain amount of money, though,
you want to be sure what you're betting on. So yeah,
this is a game where I'm happy we can avoid
it now because it's moved too much. I honestly didn't
want to have too much invested in this one just
because you know, Gino has not looked right since that

(47:21):
knee injury, and that's the god honest truth, Like he
didn't look right the week before. And you know at three,
like you said that to me was an amazing value
and that was like a good number because it is
him with starters going up against a backup of the
Rams team. And we know how top heavy the Rams
are as well, like they're just like Houston, there are
stars in the scrub team. They're just a team of

(47:43):
really good players and the bottom of it's really bad, right,
they're really thin once you start going through the layers.
So the the Rams here though there are they are
a young team, so I wouldn't be shocked if they
do play a lot of the young starters on defense.
But offensively, what I read that it's basically going to
be the rookie running back and then you know backup

(48:03):
quarterback and no Cooper Cup, no Puoka the coup, and
it's like you go down the line, it's like, Okay,
can Jimmy keep them in this game competitively? Sure, he
can maybe keep this close, but do I see him
winnning this out right now? So yeah, I agree with
your play at three at six and a half, that
just feels way too rich to back the Seahawks team.

Speaker 1 (48:20):
By the way, I forgot to mention that the Los
Angeles Chargers will be our foxhole bet we are clearly
on the opposite side. Otherwise, guys more in that one
than any other game this week. Los Angeles Chargers are
the foxhult. Meanwhile, our Big Balls better the week presented

(48:45):
by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John
has the support, great game, start, great underwear, and Tommy
John makes the greatest. That was me giving my Big
Balls announcement to the fullest of my potential. Kansas City
plus ten and a half at Denver it got up

(49:05):
to eleven on Wednesday, there was a little bit of buyback.
We're on the Chiefs here. I don't understand the Chiefs
at sixteen and one. I know who's playing and who's not,
but they still have the best strategic offensive mind in football.

(49:27):
A quarterback who is not a fourteen point difference from
Patrick Mahomes in Carson Wentz. This is just too big
of a number. It makes It makes no sense to
me whatsoever.

Speaker 2 (49:42):
No, and it's gonna be the most public dog of
the week, right because I think everyone's in agreement with
us of this line's way too big. And I think
they originally moved it this high because there were whispers
that Carson Wentz was gonna sit in this game too,
that they didn't want to risk injuring him either, and
they were gonna play their third string, and the ady
k my Es change said no, it's it's it's Carson.

(50:02):
The weirdest thing is that it hasn't moved, like it
went down from a couple of books out at eleven. Yeah,
I went to ten and a half, but I thought
this would be eight and a half. Eight after the
announcement it was Carson, You're right. It's like, is he
really fourteen to fifteen points worse than Mahomes. It's it
feels like it's a bit dramatic, especially when you know
we've come to realize, especially as Mahomes is, you know,

(50:24):
especially you can't duplicate how he's so confident, great in
the pocket, everything like that. But we talk it's injurying.
The scheme is something that's very very very very important
to this team, and you know, obviously Mahomes now have
the numbers this year because they basically just run the
ball the whole second half and just ball control team.
So I don't think he made I don't have to look,
but I'm pretty sure he missed the Pro Bowl, right,

(50:45):
makes the problem right, And it's like, you know, guy
comes off two Super Bowls, goes fifteen to one, but
he doesn't have the stats because their team is just
so smart. He knows they don't need to force balls downfield.
They can just run the second half. You'll never have
the stats to make the pro bowning know, that's just
part of it. It's a team sport. That's why we
love football, right, It's the ultimate team sport. So yeah,

(51:06):
this is a line that me and Chad love, gonna
have the money line around Robin. This is just the
best part of the final week of the season. Like
a team like this that no one's gonna believe it
can kind of shock the world here. But unfortunately people
do believe this one. Like I said, this is gonna
be the most public dog most likely the week because
I think everyone's just like me and Chad, they're all
just like best team in football over ten points. Take

(51:27):
that best team, Like I'm with them, like it's very caveman,
very simple. Don't overthink this one. Just take the points
with this and I be shocked, shocked if this doesn't
go below ten before kickoff. I just can't see what
professional is putting in real money on the standard team
at this big of a favorite with a rookie quarterback,
which essentially is another playoff game. Like this is a
legit playoff game. It might not be to the Chiefs.

(51:48):
And yeah, they're playing backups here, but you know, andy joke,
it's fun playing spoiler. If they can play spoiler here,
he's gonna try to do it. So I love this
number for this Chiefs team.

Speaker 1 (51:58):
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dot com slash Favorites. That's Tommy john dot com slash Favorites. Okay,
Last one on the board Minnesota plus three now at
bet three six five at Detroit. You liked Minnesota on Tuesday,
you had good reasons for doing it. I don't want

(53:32):
to bet this game just because I want Detroit to
win so badly. I'd rather just pass miss the edge
on Minnesota than bet against the Lions. You mentioned sharp
calls wise guys like Detroit.

Speaker 2 (53:43):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (53:44):
My feeling here is just this is a team that
is impossible not to love. You get so few windows
in the NFL to live up to your potential and
I think the Lions have that shot right now. Very
good chance. Aaron Glenn has gone next year, He's done

(54:04):
it as well as he can with third and four
stringers and guys off the street. Likely Ben Jhonson is gone.
Not that they're not replaceable, but this transformation. The entire
country has been behind this team turning it around, and
I just look, I'm a sentimental guy. I'm rooting for

(54:29):
these three coaches and this team to win the Super
Bowl together, reach the height. Everyone can go off to
their own separate ways, graduate into something else, but I
want them to achieve it together. I want them to
win the number one seed. I want them to rest,
I want them to get their defensive players back. I

(54:50):
don't want to bet this game because if the right
side is Minnesota, I don't want to be right.

Speaker 2 (54:57):
And you're very nice to say that. Them losing their
assistant you know coaches won't matter, but it will. Like
it's we've seen it time and time again. I mean
I lived it as an Egles fan, Like we went
and won the Super Bowl, Yeah right, We lost our
OC in our DC and we basically just went into hell.

Speaker 1 (55:14):
And well, I don't know what you're you're talking about
you won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles and Doug Peterson.
You lost the Super Bowl and then lost your coordinators.
I can't remember who the coordinators were when Doug Peterson
was the coach.

Speaker 2 (55:28):
No, your your favorite guy is uh coaching the Colts well.

Speaker 1 (55:33):
But that's when that's when they lost with Sirianni you
lost and Steichen.

Speaker 2 (55:40):
And you know this The silver line and hope is
the Eagles were the first team in NFL history to
have a different whole, different coaching staff and make a
Super Bowl between five years. So like it can happen.
You can lose your coaching staff and get back there
within five years. I mean it's happened before, but our
circle data shows us. It's like it's it's a big
deal losing these key pieces as coaches. And you know,

(56:02):
not that the lines are gonna be desperate, but they
have to know this, Like it's now that I'm thinking
about though they've drafted so well that maybe they can't
combat it, but it's like this is the year it's
all lined up. You have a really great defensive mind
that you know you have no you should have no defense,
Like it's it's incredible what they have done even winning
all these games down the stretch here because you know

(56:25):
they they have lost so many pieces here and you
know this is you're right, Chad, It's like I get
your emotion in this bet. You know, who doesn't want
to see Detroit win? This be the one seed that's
their best pass. But I just think at this point,
to me, Minnesota is the better team. You can get
three right now at bet three sixty five. And we

(56:46):
already talked about like if you have, like, guy, do
I have a bunch of futures tied to this Detroit
team winning this division? You have to hedge, Like this
is such a unique, great opportunity to hedge on a
Vikings team that to me is the better team right now,
and they're the dog. And you know, as much as
you want to respect home field advantage we talked about

(57:08):
this year, there is no real home field advantage right,
Like that's kind of gone out the door, especially when
there's two teams like this that can move the ball,
Like the offense here is gonna be the difference and
we've seen that. Right The total is the biggest total,
like EVM saying since was a twenty twenty one it's
it's insane how high this total is. So you not
want it take it? It makes I get it, like if

(57:28):
you want to take a step back. Anyone out there
doesn't want to take this. But to me, you fine,
a game that's going to be a shootout, you almost
always take the points, Like unless you know you're really
committed to this Detroit team, go money line then, like,
don't don't mess around the two and a half because
I talk all the time how I found important. I
think two and a half is. And you even go
back and look at the first time they played. Me
and Chad survived that Detroit bet right, we did handicap

(57:51):
it right, but it was madness. There was like a
strip sacked touchdown at the end of the game. All
of a sudden Detroy had to drive the field again
and get another touchdown. Then it was just pure madness.
And that's why I think this game is gonna be
like you're never gonna feel comfortable. I don't. I can't see
this being a blow out on either side. I would
be shocked Detroit blow out the Vikings or the Vikings
blow out Detroit. It would honestly be shocking. But I
just think the fact that you have a team on

(58:13):
short rest already banged up. I mean, they've just had
a grueling long season here, but against a Minnesota team
that you know, not that they're going to be fresh
in this game, but like you know, they dominated their
last game against Green Bay. They basically took the foot
off the guests in the fourth quarter and a little
sweat there. But I just I just think it. The
line is up perfectly this Minnesota team. So yeah, I'm

(58:35):
clearly unpoc committed. I love them at plus three Minnesota,
and you know at two and a half, if Chattas
won't put him in a contest, I get it. Like
I'm more confident at three three and a half with
this Minnesota team i am at two and a half.
But yeah, this is the dream scenario for the NFL
two fourteen and two teams fight for the one seed.
It doesn't get much better than this.

Speaker 1 (58:53):
I'm so excited to watch this game. It's like I
love football. I can't. It's gonna be a great It's
gonna be a great game. All right, we'll we'll review,
we'll put in our picks. After the show. We're gonna
want to get some numbers before they move. Even more
people will be able to track that. We'll finalize them

(59:13):
on Sunday morning. Each week we give out a two
team money line underdog Parla. Bet three sis five boosts
the odds and highlights it on their site all week
and long under both game pages. Both games are eligible
for bet three six five's early payout promo, where your
moneyline pick gets Marcus win if that team takes a
seventeen point lead, even if they lose. So if you

(59:35):
want to bet this, better to bet three six five.
This week's boost did parlay Jags and Giants. That's right,
that's what we're asking. Can't imagine? Can't imagine what the
trading analyst at boot three six five will boost that one?
To find the boost under the Jags or Giants game
pages on bet three six five, simon our money line

(59:56):
underdog round Robin, come up hey.

Speaker 2 (01:00:00):
Day, hallau yo waa pay day. There will come up
pay day some day.

Speaker 3 (01:00:06):
Some day there will come up pay day, hallau yoa payday.

Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
I will come up pay.

Speaker 3 (01:00:12):
Day some day.

Speaker 1 (01:00:15):
I would say, we want to do the Chiefs, Panthers, Giants, Jags.

Speaker 2 (01:00:21):
I remember you liked Cowboys, right and if you want
to take the Cowboys out and go with Minnesota, I support.

Speaker 1 (01:00:28):
It, all right. I can do that because I know
how much you love Minnesota. I hate like when you're
so locked in and I'm clearly being emotional about it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:36):
I'm locked in, but I'm scared. I think anyone's scared
betting against this Detroit team. I mean, man Campbell just
dominates in this exact scenario. What is he having? Is
he seven to zero in night games with golf against
the spread?

Speaker 3 (01:00:47):
I think it's something like that where it's against the
Vikings too. GoF hasn't lost against the spread against in Viking.

Speaker 2 (01:00:52):
It's not good chatter. It's every trend I read from Evan.
I was like, God, damn it, but I can't help myself.

Speaker 1 (01:00:56):
All right, forget it. Then let's go with the underlaw.
The underdog round robin is going to be Kansas City, Jags, Giants, Cowboys, Oh, Carolina,
Carolina Jags, Cowboys, Giants, Carolina Jags, Cowboys, Giants, Kansas City.

(01:01:19):
All right, Jesus, that was Scoot for Let Scoot, Well,
we gotta do your biggest bets. Then I want to
do scooter.

Speaker 2 (01:01:24):
Lt biggest bets. So far. I mean, I hit the
Cincinnati in one early. I've not bet in much since.
That definitely one of my bigger bets. Jaguars Giants, probably
gonna end up with Minnesota's one of my bigger bets
if especially if it stays at three. So yeah, I
would say those three really jump out for Sunday.

Speaker 1 (01:01:43):
Wow, that's truly disgusting. That's gonna be it. You're gonna
be terrible.

Speaker 2 (01:01:47):
I even mentioned Tennessee because I just know no one's
gonna follow that one. But yeah, I'm heavy on Tennessee
as well.

Speaker 1 (01:01:52):
Oh my god, you're gonna have such an excruciating Sunday.
If you were drinking last Sunday, I forget about this Sunday.

Speaker 2 (01:01:59):
When all whole is lost, all this left is relief.
Let's play scoots Roulette.

Speaker 1 (01:02:08):
Scoot Roulette. Last week you were on Minnesota. I was
on Green Bay, our first head to head of the year.
Very upsetting for me. Who would you like to pick
in scoot Roulette?

Speaker 2 (01:02:16):
I mean, if you want to double down and take
Detroy and I take in Minnesota, or you just scare
it off.

Speaker 1 (01:02:20):
Now, No, I'll do it.

Speaker 2 (01:02:22):
You will?

Speaker 1 (01:02:23):
Yeah? Why not?

Speaker 2 (01:02:24):
You're sick dog? Yeah, give me Minnesota. Then whatever you
get it, you get two and a half, I get
plus three.

Speaker 1 (01:02:29):
Sure, all right, I like that. I like that one.
Now it gives me like a reason to be invested
without actually having to be invested as a contest pick.
Before we get to Evan Abrams, if you are participating,
uh no, this is not accurate. This should have come out.
We're all good, everything's good. Let's get to Evan Abrams

(01:02:50):
before we get out of here, our director of research.
You can get the final word, Nigas feel good about something.

Speaker 2 (01:02:57):
The last word with Evan A.

Speaker 1 (01:03:00):
Brams. We're finished talking.

Speaker 3 (01:03:03):
Well, yeah, I mean, if we're betting the Giants, Titans
and Jaguars, I'm not sure how much I can help there,
but I will give you a few pieces of fun
information here. The one thing you guys did say about
Carson Wentz which I looked up, so ten and a
half would actually be his largest spread in any game
played ninety three starts. He did it against Lamar in
twenty two, So yeah, even a big number for him
in his heyday and his post days. And the interesting

(01:03:26):
thing on Sunday Night football, so Vikings fourteen wins win total.

Speaker 2 (01:03:30):
Was six and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:03:31):
If they get one more win at fifteen, this would
be the most over expectations any team has ever finished
in the since re alignment in two thousand and two.
So Vikings had a six and a half win total
in the WOW, which is insane. But I'll give you
two trends. Since it is Week eighteen, we kind of
have a lot of this information on teams to bet
and fade at the end of the year. So historically

(01:03:53):
it's been profitable to fade teams who need to win
at the end of the regular season. It's a great
note from Stuckey that we've been updating the year, So
since nineteen ninety eliminated teams playing teams that need to
win over the final two weeks of the regular season
sixty percent against the spread. Now for Week eighteen, that
is the Saints getting about fourteen in the Bucks, the

(01:04:13):
Panthers getting eight or nine in Atlanta, and the Jets
at about one one and a half or two against
the Dolphins. All three of those other teams.

Speaker 2 (01:04:22):
Need to win.

Speaker 3 (01:04:22):
And then here's an even broader one which I found
in bet Labs, which I found was interesting. So in addition,
teams with a win percentage between forty percent and sixty
percent Week sixteen or later twenty seven and seventy two
against the spread twenty seven percent when they are against
opponents with an eight to twenty five percent worst win percentage.

(01:04:44):
So basically, in those last two to three weeks of
the regular season, you want to be betting these bad
teams against good teams. They're failing to cover the spread
by three point eight points per game this week. That
is the Colts against the Jaguars, the Dolphins against those Jets,
the Falcons against those Panthers, and the Bucks against the
same type of games, same type of system. But this

(01:05:07):
is just year in and year out, these teams, like
who are the Colts last week against the Giants, kind
of find themselves not coming through when people expect them to.
And then I'll end here. We talked a lot about
the Titans, So yes, Chad, to answer your question from
earlier two and fourteen ats, they're just the only team
ever to lose fourteen games against the spreading the season,

(01:05:30):
so that will continue no matter what. But the funny
thing is this, so they were favorite. Actually last week
they closed it minus one with some late action, so
they're about to close its favorites in back to back weeks,
and I found this one so ending the year bad.
Only a few teams have had a four plus game
ATS losing streak and an ATS one percentage of twenty
five percent or worse in Week seventeen or later, which

(01:05:53):
is exactly what you're getting with the Titans. The only
two teams before that were the Bucks in twenty two,
who actually beat the Panthers, and famously in twenty twenty one,
the Jaguars, who upset the Colts and kept them out
of the playoffs. The other funny thing is it's actually
also the Browns this week. The Browns are I don't
know if I didn't even realize this until I look
it up. The Browns are four and twelve against the

(01:06:14):
spread this year. They failed to spread in four or
five straight games entering this one, so they're pretty much
on in the same course as Tennessee. They've been really bad,
kind of unexpectedly starting dt are these last few weeks.
And then I'll leave you with this. So Simon mentioned
it with Dable, but I found this interesting. Best Coaches
against the Spread Week seventeen and eighteen in our bet

(01:06:35):
Labs database. In two thousand and three, Tomlin fourteen and
seven again, ats Dan Campbell seven and one, and again
Brian Dable at five and oero. The other good ones
were McDermott and Peterson. Who I know you guys are
on a few of those coaches and teams this week,
so maybe that'll turn out on the positive side.

Speaker 1 (01:06:52):
Feel great, you know what I feel like, Simon, Feel
like we're going to live up to our potential in
the week. Do you feel that way too?

Speaker 2 (01:07:03):
Always good?

Speaker 1 (01:07:05):
I'm glad of that. We are like minds. As a
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(01:07:26):
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(01:07:46):
Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon and I will return
with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action
Network YouTube page Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to
recap NFL week eighteen and look ahead to the playoffs.
Got some wild card lines that'll be out by then.
Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods,
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(01:08:07):
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