3 & Out - NFL Week 18 Best Bets: Vikings-Lions, Bengals-Steelers, Chiefs-Broncos, Super Bowl futures
January 4, 2025 • 43 mins
John is joined by The Action Network sports betting expert, Stuckey, to share their best bets for the Week 18 slate of games, including Super Bowl futures, Chiefs-Broncos, Bengals-Steelers, Vikings-Lions, Seahawks-Rams, and Saints-Bucs.
0:20 - Playoff picture
4:55 - Super Bowl future bets
11:12 - Chiefs at Broncos
17:45 - Bengals at Steelers
20:39 - Vikings at Lions
28:59 - Seahawks at Rams
32:13 - Saints at Bucs
36:28 - Chargers at Raiders
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
What is going on everybody?
Speaker 3 (00:17):
How are we doing? Hopefully everyone's having a good New
Year's having a good week. We're all thrown off.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
This two week stretch, especially with Christmas, Christmas Eve, New
Year's Eve, New Year's falling in the middle of the week,
back to back weeks can really throw you off, and I.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Definitely fall under that category. I got some sickness. I
don't know what it is. I just I can't shake it.
I'm gonna go try to sit in the sun and
steam room see if that will cure me. Because it's
been going on like five days now. It sucks, but
I'm thrown off. So instead of doing a mail bag
on Saturday, I talked to Stucky about twenty four hours ago,
(01:01):
and we got a big NFL weekend, at least a
couple of big games, a lot of other games that
are meaningless. It's it's impossible to know who's gonna play.
So we tried to dive in any trends, you know,
how to get our gamble on. We'll get a little
juwe flowing into the start of the new year. I
do think there are some interesting, you know, future bets
(01:23):
right now when you look at teams like you know,
from a value standpoint, it's hard to bet against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
But from a.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Value standpoint, the winner of the Ravens Bills game, you
can get both those to it, you know, close to
seven to one. So we'll talk a little bit about
that as well. Obviously, the playoffs coming up next week
with the NFL the college football semi finals, we have
coaches getting fired. I mean, it's gonna be a crazy,
crazy time in terms of the football world. So we
(01:50):
got we gotta strap in, buckle up, pedal to the
metal here and and yeah, so we will talk to
Stucky today. That will be it. No middlecoff mail bag.
I will bang out a few next week for sure.
I had Jackson come on after the Notre Dame game.
He's a big Notre Dame guy. So we did about
an hour of college football yesterday if you missed it,
so you can go check that out. Make sure you
subscribe to three and out. You know, if you listen
(02:12):
on college feed, make sure you subscribed to a three
and out feed YouTube channel has all of our content
as well. And yeah, let's dive into Stucky. It's bittersweet
because when you look at your DraftKings app all lines
here presented by our friends at DraftKings, And you realize
that it's week eighteen and college football's coming to a
(02:33):
screeching end football that you can see the end, the
light at the end of the tunnel where there just
is no football for a long period of time. And
that makes me sad. So I stopped complaining. If there
was a crappy game on a Thursday night, if there
was a crappy Monday night game, and I just said,
it's football, I was going to enjoy it. But then
I look at the lines this weekend. I think one
(02:55):
of my favorite lines of the weekend of the year
is my guy Stucky's squad the Ravens. I saw this morning.
They are laying eighteen points against the fighting Cleveland Browns,
who I know they were having a season from hell,
but when you look at the record and it says,
(03:16):
what are they three and thirteen? They are really really shitty.
I mean for a team just last year that won
eleven games, Wastfanski man, what a season from hell from
the Browns.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Yeah, it's I think that they're point Their team total
is eleven and a half. I think I think that's
what it's at, which is like as low as you'll
ever see in in the NFL. It's yeah, it is.
It is bitter sweet. There's only eight college we're recording
this on a Thursday. There's only eight college football games left,
(03:53):
and you e were heading into the final regular season
week in the NFL. But I am actually looking I'm
looking forward to the NFL playoffs. Like this regular season
it's been, it's been pretty bizarreming favorites have dominated. It's
been one of the most successful favorite years of all time.
And a lot of that is like in the NFL,
(04:13):
we usually have extreme parody, but that's just not been
the case this year. There's a chance we have nine
teams finish with four or fewer wins. I believe we've
never had more than seven, and there's an extra game now.
(04:33):
So just that there's been so many bad teams and
then a lot of those bad teams about injuries and
some of the quarterback situations on some of these bad
teams has just made the regular season not as exciting
as it usually is. But what I think that that
will lead to is a much more exciting playoffs. I mean,
(04:58):
you're gonna have a either a lie or Vikings team
that is currently fourteen and two. Both of them are fourteen.
The loser is the five seed, which is pretty insane.
But yeah, I think that, uh.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
I don't think we'll ever see a fourteen win five
seed again or right, very unlikely. I mean, that's that's
hard to get.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Yeah, it's insane. So I think that we're it's going
to be a really really good NFL playoffs. Just I mean,
in the AFC, can the Ravens or Bills get over
the hump against the Chiefs who seem to be putting
it together at the right time, And then the NFC,
it's it's pretty wide open. Can Detroit just get through
(05:45):
the NFST I mean they need to get the lines.
The game is huge against the Vikings because with their defensive injuries,
I mean, over the past three weeks they've been the
worst defense in the NFL. I mean, they give up
since all these injuries that they go forty eight to
even the Bears put up like four hundred yards. They
were moving the ball. And then last week the Niners
(06:07):
they did whatever they wanted on offense and it wasn't
like that a complete they had a Their offensive line
was a shell of itself. The semis I had a
sixty percent success right for the game. Only five other
teams have done that in a game this year. They
just missed field goals of course, as they always do,
and turned it over a couple times with the lines.
Can they That's why they need to get home field,
maybe get a bit healthier. You get to play at home,
(06:29):
but they're gonna have to win and shootouts, but you
have you know, you also have the Packers, the Vikings,
the Eagles to the NFC. I think is is really
exciting and pretty deep this year. You have a Rams
team that's going to be dangerous as well and can
beat anybody on any given Sunday. So yeah, I'm I'm
looking forward to the playoffs and I think that that
lack of parody is going to make for a more
(06:51):
exciting postseasons. You do have a lot of really good
teams this year.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
Well before before we dive in, I wrote down some
big picture of things I want to get into. Is
I think when you speak of the ships at the
bottom of the NFL on Monday night, you know, most
people in my life are forty nine er people and
everyone's like, should we be losing this game when it
looked like the forty nine ers were gonna win and
I was like they were having the season from hell.
And they're currently drafting eleven. So whether you win or
(07:16):
lose this game, drafting eleven or drafting fourteenth, if they
were drafting like fourth, yeah you should root for them
to lose, but they could lose out and they're still
not gonna draft in the top ten. So whether you
win a game or lose a game, it's not This
isn't the Giants, Raiders, Patriots situation. They can't They're not
playing in that sandbox. It's pretty insane. The Niners are
(07:38):
not gonna draft in the top ten. And that includes
if they lose this week to Arizona and they go
six and eleven. So that just shows you how crappy
and the Niners really don't have that much in common
with those teams. So's it feels right, but it's crazy
how bad you know, the bottom seven or eight have
truly been most of the season with the Giants, the Titans,
(07:58):
the Raiders, the I mean both of them have had
moments in a given game, but over the course of
like two month stretches, I mean, they are just putrid
football teams. So I hear you there. And when I
think big picture, I look today. I looked at some
futures right now the Chiefs rightfully, so they flipped a switch.
(08:18):
Holy shit, they look good again. Uh even you know,
my fiance keeps looking at me. She's like, are they
really gonna win it again? She asked me that yesterday
because there was some you know, ad about the NFL playoffs,
or she was looking at someone on Instagram like I
you know, I wouldn't have said yes a month ago,
but don't be surprised if it happens again. But I
do think there's some value assuming Baltimore wins. I mean,
(08:41):
they're almost a twenty point favorite. You can get Baltimore
Buffalo at plus six fifty. So if you took one
thousand dollars and put five hundred each, or put five
thousand dollars and splait it up, put twenty five hundred
each and basically just bet those two to win the
Super Bowl, right, because you know they're more than likely
going to play in the second round, and I do
(09:02):
think they would have a very good chance to win.
You know, if you're just playing the odds like are
the Chiefs gonna go back to the Super Bowl again?
Would be historic? Let alone win it eventually, Like I
remember Brady Belichick losing to Rex Ryan, Right, I remember
Brady and Belichick losing to Denver. Now granted, some of
these games that Rex Ryan game I think was at home,
(09:23):
Denver game when Gronk's ankle was messed up, was on
the road. So every situation's different. Kansasy is gonna host,
but I wonder if there's some value there. And basically,
but you gotta bet them both because you don't know
exactly who's gonna win that second game, right, But that's
you basically just take the two of them and you
bet them to win the Super Bowl. Because whoever wins
(09:43):
that game, I think you're gonna be feeling pretty good,
has a good chance against the Chiefs. And this year,
unlike last year, everyone's gonna be betting the Chiefs. Right
in that situation, yep.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
The only thing that what do you think about that logic?
Speaker 1 (10:01):
I don't hate it. I mean the one the potential
wrench that could get thrown into it is that the
Bengals make the playoffs. But and then you know, the
Bengals play. The Bengals can beat anybody. They'll probably find
a way to lose at the end, but they would
they would play the Bills that they get in in
that first game. And I see some people, like I've
(10:21):
seen social media, people are like, oh, the Chiefs are
sitting the starters because they don't want the Bengals in,
which is as nine because the Bengals would play the Bills,
and you would rather if you're the Chiefs, you'd rather
play the Bengals and that their defense than the Bills.
So you could, I think you would want the Bengals
in to potentially knock out the Bills. So yeah, I
mean it's I am anti Chiefs for this one reason.
(10:45):
Well I'm a Ravens fan one. But if they go
back to the Super Bowl, wouldn't you know, I gotta
I talk about the Super Bowl more than any game.
Do this show, my podcast, my shows, you know, and
that's it's two weeks and every year it's it's what
the chief Then we get two more weeks of just
the right the Chiefs are gonna win the Super Bowl?
I mean, what do you want me to say? So,
(11:06):
just from a freshness newness perspective, I am rooting for
the Chiefs not to get there, but yeah, it seems
like they're slowly. They just they peak at the right time.
They just know how to figure it out down the stretch.
And I think like that offense, I mean, Tony at
(11:26):
left tackles made a difference. They got Hollywood Brown back,
which makes their offense a bit more dynamic. I do
still think that there's questions in the secondary, which I
which could ultimately end up cost them this year because
last year their secondary was rock solid, but against Lamar
or Josh Allen that could end up being the difference.
(11:49):
And I do think that there's a couple of things
working in the Bills. The Bills and Ravens, I think
also are starting to peak as well, which makes the
AFC just that much more fascinating because the Bills are
getting healthier just across the board. They dealt with some
defensive injuries, some key defensive injuries down the stretch, and
the Ravens pass defense over the past six weeks top
(12:12):
three in the NFL, and this is a bottom five
unit earlier in the year. They made some schematic changes
and they moved some guys around, put Hamilton back at safety,
put a Darius Washington at safety instead of Marcus Williams,
kept humphering the slot, and the results are have been
very very good. So their pass defense, which is their
(12:33):
biggest weakness, is starting to trend up. So all three
of those teams are trending up. But it's the Chiefs
you got. You have to get up. You have to
get up on them, like you just can't have it
be you can't have it be as one possession game,
as the Bills know all too well, even if there's
thirteen seconds left, because you know that the Chiefs are
(12:54):
just going to find a way if they need to
have a final drive, especially at home, that they're gonna
win that close game. But yeah, if there was a year,
it's the Bills are Ravens are very very good this year.
But for fortunately for the Chiefs, Yeah, they're gonna have
to play each other.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Well, let's start with the Chiefs because Carson Wentz is
getting zero respect a ten and a half point dog.
Now it's not just Carson Wentz, right, I mean there
I would guess Travis Kelce will not have pads on,
Chris Jones will not have pads on. I mean he's
been banged up. I could see you know, McDuffie, Karlovska,
(13:32):
who knows, right, I mean, it's not like it's gonna
be is Xavier Worthy might have pads on but play
very limited snaps. This is must win for Denver, who
played in one of the most batshit games I think
we'll ever see. Well, I'm so thrown off on my
days right now, but whenever they played the Bengals, like
a week ago, five days ago, yesterday, I don't know
(13:54):
when that game, that game was bananas, but like I
do think they're pretty good and defensively, like the Bengals
are a tough matchup, but it's Carson Wentz sometimes in
this spot when you get a guy like that, like
there's a pretty big game for Carson Wentz and like
I think Andy like not necessarily trying to win or
(14:17):
lose the game, but he will take a lot of
pride in like Carson Wentz, like they will. They will
have a lot of effort like these four days leading
it up to this game. Now, this is a kitchen
sink game for Denver. Be a huge accomplishment to make
the playoffs, right with a rookie quarterback and everyone counted
them out when the season started, myself included, and they've
turned out their defense was actually pretty good undermans Joseph Benito.
(14:40):
I didn't even know that much about this guy, and
he's fucking dominated. But in really just their pass rush
in general, Like, I don't think anyone would have picked
them to lead the league in sacks right in August.
But this is kind of fascinating game. I just is
this just a lock? Denver just beats him like thirty
to ten? Or is this thing? You know? I think
I might take the Carson fighting Carson wentzz would Andy
(15:02):
Reid plus ten and a half?
Speaker 1 (15:04):
I would lean that way. I might take it.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
I just how's the number that there's a lot of them?
How's it that big?
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah, there's a lot of un I mean there's some
rumors that the Chiefs might even play like some Chris
Oladuke in their third string quarterback, which would make it
a little dicey. I mean it's the Chiefs offensive line
still does have some issues, so how much of those
this This Mahomes mask would be my concern against a
team that you know is going to send the blitz
can get pressure, but you.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
Don't want your backup quarterback to get injured either going
into the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Yeah, historically the in Week eighteen actually, for that matter,
the final two weeks of the regular season. If you
bet the teams and this doesn't this specific game doesn't
fit this mold exactly. But if you bet the teams
that are eliminated playing for nothing against the teams that
have to win, you have done very well. It's like
(15:59):
sixty against the spread. Why Well, a lot of times
you're paying a premium to back the team that needs
to win, and the other team usually will. They're still professionals,
they'll they're still gonna try, still gonna try to win,
and they can play looser in a way, and then
(16:19):
the team that needs to win plays tighter. They might
be a little bit too conservative, play too close to
the vest. So there's a lot of things that work
in the favor of these underdogs that are eliminated don't
need to win, Like the Jets, for example against the Dolphins,
they fit that. The Saints, I'm not sure if Davy
Derek Carr plays this week, and the Saints, like getting
(16:40):
two touchdowns against the Bucks fit that mold. And then here, yeah,
the Chiefs can come in here. They can play loose,
nothing to lose. And you know the Broncos Bnecks still
a rookie quarterback, a lot of pressure on him. It
just comes down to like how many guys do the
Chiefs actually sit. But we've seen the Chiefs in this situation,
(17:03):
this exact situation four times before. Back in twenty thirteen,
Chase Daniel started, Chiefs rested all their starters. They were
plus fourteen and a half against the Chargers, who needed
to win to get into the playoffs. I assume that
that was Rivers. The Chiefs were up ten late, they
(17:25):
blew a ten point lead, They missed a field goal
to win it. There was actually a penalty on the
Chargers that the NFL had come out after the game
and say they messed up and that should have been called.
Chargers ended up winning in overtime. Chiefs covered twenty seventeen.
They were plus three at Denver and they won. It
was actually Mahomes's first start when they sat up Alex
(17:47):
Smith twenty twenty, hen Chad Henny was plus seven versus
Herbert at the Chargers. That was a meaningless game. They
did get blown out in that game thirty eight twenty one,
and then last year when Gabbert started plus three and
a half at the Chargers, who in fairness were starting
easton Stick and the Chiefs ended up winning thirteen twelve.
(18:08):
So they've covered three of four games, all on the
road and division in this spot, and they should have
won three of the four. So it wouldn't shock me
if they were just in this game in the fourth quarter.
I just I just don't know to what extent are
(18:30):
they going to rest their starters, like how many are
they going to actually play some of their third string quarterback?
But the Chiefs are a very professional team and they've
been in the spot before, so I think they'll be
prepared and they'll put up a fight here. So yeah,
I think it's Chiefs are nothing at ten and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Well, if you remember the Mahomes game where he started
when he was the back of for Alex Smith, they
knew they were going to the playoffs, and I think
they elmer knew they were playing. I think they ended
up playing the Titans, and Andy gave like Doug Peterson,
maybe Doug was already gone, but Naggi and like his
offensive assistant, said, you attacked the game plan, you started
attacking the playoff opponents all be all attack Mahomes and
(19:11):
get ready for this game. They split it up. They
don't really even need to do that because they've already
they just played the Texans, right, They just they didn't
play the Chargers that long ago, and they're comfortable playing them,
so it's like they don't need to get that far ahead.
And they got the bye week, so it's like they
could just attack this week kind of like a normal week.
I just think that's a lot of points in a
(19:32):
situation where you you know, he knows their personnel pretty well.
That's this is a game I got circled. Wouldn't shock
me if I'm not saying Denver's gonna lose, but I
could just see that thing being weird and same thing.
You know, the Steelers got some fucking issues. I mean,
they are a completely different team and we've we talked
about it last week. You know, with their defensive injuries,
(19:53):
the coverage ability is just no longer there. They're just
not the same team. And obviously Cincinnati just I mean
their ability on offense is second to none. Throwing the ball,
I mean, Merl's playing out of his mind. I feel
like this is an easy one. He just picked Cincinnati,
but this also feels kind of classic Pittsburgh. I mean, shit,
they played on Christmas, so they've had a lot of
(20:16):
extra rest. Everyone's been shitting on them, and rightfully so,
but I mean still, I mean they are just everyone's
picking them be one and done in the playoffs, just
another Mike Tomlin seasons kind of worthless, got a hot start,
meant nothing. I wonder if this is game's gonna be
a little weirder than everyone just thinks. Cincinnati is a
(20:36):
lock to win this game.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Yeah, I mean it's a class. There's been a couple
classic Tomlins spots though in the past three weeks that
just that haven't worked out. This would fit the mold
as another one. Joey Porter will be back. That's big
for the Steelers. They've really missed him in coverage. I
think a key to this game is does Amarius MEM's
(20:58):
playing for the Bengals game true game time decision at
right tackle and obviously be going up against what big
drop off for the Bengals tackles If their starters are
not in there, it could be trouble for Barrow. Who's
I mean, he's just playing amazing regardless right now, but
that could lead to like a few more just like
(21:20):
a few drive killers sacks, drive killing sacks, which might
end up making the difference a tough game for me
to bet. Because Bengals games right now, you know that
Burrow is just I mean, he's playing at an MVP level.
They're gonna put up points. They're very difficult to stop. Now,
the right tackle could make that a little murkier, the
(21:43):
right tackle situation. But and you also know their defense
isn't very good, so the other team is going to
be right there with them. I mean, go back to
that the Steelers Bengals first meeting, what about a month ago.
The Steelers did whatever they wanted on offense in that game.
So to me, this just feels like who's gonna have
(22:06):
the ball last? I mean, that's what Bengals games are
right now, because it's hard to get, it's hard to
stop them, and it's hard not to score on them.
So yeah, this feels like I don't mind the series
is like a teaser piece because this feels like last
team with the ball wins. But Mims at right tackle.
That's why I'm watching because if he doesn't play that
(22:28):
just could ruin maybe one or two drives for the Bengals,
and that could be the difference, because it's very difficult
to rely on their defense right now and count on
them to get any stops.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
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Speaker 3 (24:20):
Okay, let's go, uh, I mean, record wise, pretty historic
matchup game of the year, the Detroit Lions hosting the
Minnesota Vikings. My takeaway halfway through that game was on
Monday night, was Detroit has no chance in the playoffs
with this level of defense. And honestly, at that point
about halftime, like, I don't see how they can beat
(24:40):
Minnesota when they just can't stop anybody. Then the second half,
I mean, your defense can be awful if your offense
is dominant, which there is, and then you just get
some turnovers, which is obviously a little random. You either
need the quarterback to throw you the ball like Perty did,
or create a fumble. And I do think that they
(25:00):
have a chance once the game ended and you realize, okay,
I see their path offense basically has a score or
just you know, be elite. You're not gonna score in
every drive like he did against the Niners against Minnesota.
I think it's fair to say, but you still should
be able to put up I would say twenty five
to thirty points and then just create a turnover, whether
that's Sam Donald throwing you the ball, forcing a fumble somehow,
(25:23):
It's like that is their path because they're just not
gonna get stops consistently. They're just not even close to
good enough right now. It's not someone's fault. It's not
a camp blagn the defensive coordinator or players suck. I mean,
they just got a million injuries. Now they might get
guys back and maybe by you know, if they can
win this game. But I like, I do see the
path of winning this game in to me, at parallels
(25:47):
that Niner game. Score a lot of points, create some turnovers,
because if they're not creating turnovers, I see zero chance
if Sam Donald is gonna play like the guy we
have seen, like unless he just has one of his
awful games, which he hasn't had an while. I think
it's gonna be tough. But that Lion's offense sometimes they
score too fast. I mean that's they're just so explosive,
(26:10):
and then you just put your defense back on the
field instead of just slow. And that's where probably Montgomery
would help a little bit, just like seven yard runs
instead of Gibbs gets in the open fields, Like God,
they just gained forty yards. You know, you're like, holy shit, Like,
don't throw the ball to Jameis and Williams. He might
go for like fifty. You just need like a fifteen
yard chunk play. But I think a lot of people
are gonna take Minnesota Minnesota plus two and a half.
(26:33):
I don't know if I could take Detroit laying the points,
but I do see the scenario where Detroit wins this game.
It just they almost just have to be perfect, And
that's that's kind of sad because obviously Minnesota's had a
storybook season. But I'd say the same thing for Detroit,
and you could argue it's even more impressive given the
amount of injuries they've had over the last two months
to even be in this situation. I mean, how many.
(26:55):
This is a pretty big moment this last month plus
for Campbell of like they could have easily turned in
do an eleven win season or twelve win season and
no one would have blamed anybody. But it didn't, and
now they're fucking here. And even even the game against
the Niners that that was I'm sure you've seen all
these stories coming out the Colts, like how embarrassing all
that stuff is. Even the Niners had a shitty season.
You want, Fred Warner's injured playing his ass off, George Kittle, Deebo.
(27:18):
Same with the Lions. They both teams approached that game
like this is this is the NFC Championship game, point
two point zero, so like it's just kind of refreshing.
It's like, no ship, the Lions are good, like that's
how they approach that's how That's how the Chiefs approach
shit like good teams approach things a certain way, win
or lose. And uh, I actually earned a lot of
respect in that game on Monday night, game that they
(27:40):
they did not need. Right, Well, they could have lost
it and they still would have been the same situation.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Yeah. The only the only time it would have mattered
is if this game ended in a tie, then that
game will ultimately matter. But Dan Campbell, can you ever
see Dan Campbell tying the game? I don't think that's possible.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
I wonder too, playing the Niners who knocked them out
last year, I know they were having a bad season.
Would he have done the same if they were like
at the Giants, maybe would have been easier. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Yeah, I mean it was the Yeah, I mean I
definitely assumed that they were going to play everybody, but
it was a little I was a little more on
the fence of what they should do, just because the
injuries have been so catastrophic on the defensive end. It
was like, man, you really can't afford Now, luckily they
got through the game unscathed, but I like, you cannot
(28:31):
afford any more injuries on that defense because, yeah, they're
not getting any stops unless they're getting turnovers or the
other team's missing fueld goals. I will say, I mean,
this offense can score against anybody, but They've really dominated
this head to head match up with Flores Golf in
particular over the past two years. So Ben Johnson has
(28:52):
gotten the best of Flores. They have they just have
answers to the blitz and some of the things that
Flores used. Really interesting chess match there. I'm curious to
see if like Flora's changes things up because GoF has
really good numbers against the Vikes.
Speaker 3 (29:07):
Why why do you think that is like the quick game,
he gets rid of the ball quick. They got a
lot of guys to sit in zone and.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
A really good offensive line. And at the end of
the day, the Vikings set like a lot of what
they do, Like they have a good front, they're good
against the run, and they're going to show you exotic looks,
bring exotic blitzes. Usually going to have a good game
plan under Flores, but their secondary isn't overly talented, So
(29:37):
like they're beatable if you can, you know, protect and
get rid of the ball quick and you have a
good scheme. And that's what the lines. The lines check
all those boxes. So I mean, if you look back
at the game earlier this season Golf, I mean it
was the linees one thirty one twenty nine golf was
twenty two of twenty five for two to eighty two
(29:59):
touchdo downs, no interceptions, and like those That's basically what
his numbers the two meetings last year. So I'm curious
to watch that chess match. What does Flores? Does he
try to do anything differently here? It's a tough game
to bet. I mean you, the total is so high
for a divisional game with a lot on the line.
It was it got up to I think fifty eight.
(30:20):
You couldn't pay me to bet the under in this game.
Now it's super high. It's down to like fifty six
and a half. Most of these totals that are this
high do go under in the NFL because you just
need a lot to go right to go over. You know,
you just have a couple of long drives that end
in field goals, or you know, Donald throws a red
zone pick. It's hard to get into the sixties in
(30:41):
the NFL. But I mean, from what I've seen from
this Lin's offense in particular against the Vikings too, and
then the way that this Lion's defense is trending, who's
getting stops here from now? From a side perspective, what
determines this? I mean, you you hit on the head,
does Darnald He's gonna put the ball in harm's way
(31:04):
a couple of times a game. Just what he's going
to do. He's also going to make some really good throws.
But do the Kenda Lions turn them over? Because getting
one stop via turnover in this game is massive. And
then the other thing is, you know Campbell, especially now
Campbell with his defense, he knows that his defense is
(31:26):
not going to get many stops. He was already uber
aggressive on fourth downs. Why and you have an elite offense,
why not be even more aggressive? Which I expect we
saw that last week. So do the Lions on it's
fourth and five at the eighteen at the Vikings eighteenth,
(31:47):
do they get that and score a touchdown? Or do
they turn it over on downs? Then probably not gonna
stop like that's those are. There's probably gonna be like
two to three plays that the termine this the side
and who wins the game and who wins the division
ultimately who gets the number one seed? And I'll buy
and it'll probably be maybe a couple of fourth downs
for the Lions. Do they get them? So that and
That's where the chess match comes in. What does Johnson
(32:08):
have called? What does Flores do in that situation? And
then does the two or three balls that Donald puts
in Harm's way? Does the Lions come down with one
of them or two? If so, they probably win. So
I think the line's about right, really entertaining game and uh,
hell of a way to cap off the regular season.
(32:29):
But not sure I'll actually have a wager on it
because I it's just a couple of fourth downs, a
couple of Donald balls probably determine who gets the one
seed in the NFC pretty well?
Speaker 3 (32:39):
Are the Are the Rams locked into three? No?
Speaker 1 (32:44):
They're not?
Speaker 3 (32:45):
Why Why why are they punting on this week?
Speaker 1 (32:47):
Like?
Speaker 3 (32:47):
Because wouldn't because if you're yeah, if you're Tampa, you'd
want to play You'd want Detroit to lose this game,
I think, right, just because their defense so bad? Like
you is that who? You already beat them? I know
that a weird game, But wouldn't you rather wouldn't those
two teams rather play Detroit given where they're at right
now defensively than Minnesota?
Speaker 1 (33:08):
Yeah? I mean the Rams beat the Vikings. It was
a weird spot, like they were on a short week
on the road. Yeah, so the Rams can improve their seating,
but historically you can go back to twenty sixteen, I believe,
and even last year, McVeigh doesn't care about seating. So
(33:33):
I bet the see Hawks early in the week, assuming
that McVeigh would bench his starters, because in the past,
even with a chance to improve his seating, he chooses
rest in the final week, let's not risk injury and
get ready for our first opponent over improving your seating.
(33:56):
And you know, so he just that's his full Every
coach is different. You know, you can just say like, hey,
we're gonna have to beat these teams eventually. I just
want to make sure that you know, they're a very
star driven team. And the reason I like the Seahawks
this week is that, like they're gonna start Jimmy G's
professional good you know, professional backup, but they're gonna bench
(34:16):
other guys and the Rams. If there's one thing the
Rams don't have relative to other teams in the league,
it's depth. They're not a deep team. A lot of
that is because of their draft situation and roster situation.
Very top heavy team. You see that in the preseason,
like the Rams in the preseason it can get ugly.
So again, the Seahawks, I think I trust McDonald to
(34:38):
have them focused. Gino has like he can make he
can get like four million dollars in incentives this week,
So I think the Seahawks will show up. And the
Rams are basically booting this game. They did it last
year too, but the forty nine ers also booted it
and they were both resting starters and they ended up winning.
But in twenty sixteen they ended up getting blown out
(35:00):
and they didn't improve their seeding when they could have.
So it was the same exact situation. They clinched the
division the week before, could have could have been the
three or the four. Didn't care. So yeah, but if
they lose, you know, you punt this game, then you're
getting your path is and this is why some Rams
(35:20):
fans are upset. Your path is going to be the
loser of Detroit Minnesota and then the winner on the road.
So you know, you're you have the two teams that
are fourteen and two right now, that's going to be
your path if you lose this game. So but that's
mcveigh's philosophy, is consistent in it, and he just values
(35:43):
health over anything else. So yeah, definitely an interesting one.
But that the Seahawks have taken a ton of money.
They're aftter like a six to six and a half
point favorite.
Speaker 3 (35:53):
So of the two teams that really just need to
win to control their own destiny to get in Denver
and Tampa, who would you you red flag because you
mentioned the Rizzy getting almost two touchdowns. Tampa's really kind
of looks like they're firing on all cylinders. Get a
little life after that devastating l by the Atlanta Falcons,
(36:14):
I'd be a little stunned of Tampa we to lose
this week. I mean, obviously, I mean they are two
touchdown favored, but I mean the Saints.
Speaker 1 (36:22):
I took some Saints plus fourteen. Now they are bad.
I mean, I think the line is inflated, like you're
paying a premium on the Bucks to because you know
they need to win. The Saints are bad, but I
mean the Saints have been the Saints were the Saints.
We're getting fourteen in green Bay with Rattler and their
whole team hurt, So I think green Bay is a
little better than Tampa. But and this is a divisional game,
(36:45):
homefield isn't. Yeah, it's it's not twenty degrees in Green Bay.
Homefield is much less here, especially just in a divisional
game in general, where it could get interesting. For I
didn't even looked at news today for the Bucks. I mean,
because the Bucks, I I shouldn't.
Speaker 3 (37:03):
Say they're not and didn't practice again.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
Yeah, but there's a chance, I mean, like I haven't
checked updated news today. But there's a chance that Kamara
he wants to play. There's a chance that uh a
lave he said he wants to play. So and then
(37:27):
the craziest one is if Car plays. So there was
a chance that he potentially could have played last week
like he was practicing, but they said like he wasn't
comfortable enough in the pocket. So there's there's an outside
chance that Car suits up and that if that was
(37:48):
the case, you know, if you have your offense looks
a lot healthier. The Saints have a puncher's chance. I mean,
they're a loss with Rattler at quarterback or if it's
if it's Hain. So yeah, I think the latest news
I saw is he's gonna he's gonna try to do
like a simulated game, and there's an outside chance he plays.
(38:13):
That's the only way that I could see the Bucks losing.
It would be super interesting. But I know that the
Saints are They've come out and said that they want
to play for their community and with due to the
after the tragedy that to happen. And it's a divisional game,
and you have your rival that put up fifty on
(38:34):
you in New Orleans earlier this year, you can end
their season. The Saints will show up now they have
enough talent. I'm not sure, but there's an outside chance
that you get car Tamara and a couple other players healthier.
And if that was the case, yeah, you're you're gonna
want to have fourteen points in your pocket, which isn't
(38:56):
a lot to cover, even if it is rattler and
and have really banged up bad Saints team. So and
I the in Week eighteen, and you know, in in
previous years, back in the day, it was Week seventeen.
But in the final week of the NFL reglar season,
there's usually one crazy thing that happens of a team
(39:19):
that you just expect, assume is going to win, that
needs to win and doesn't a lot of times it
was like the Colts, the Colts would always Colts would
always lose to the Jags. But there's been countless examples.
I mean like Vikings Cardinals, I remember way back in
the day. I think that was like on the last
play of the game. But there's I remember the Ravens
(39:42):
UH played the Bengals at home in the final week
of the regular season, needed to win and they lost
on like the final play. That was devastating loss, and
it was just assumed that they were going to win
that game. Like weird things happen in the final week.
So what I be surprised if the Saints or the
(40:04):
Chiefs were tied in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
No not Charger Chargers, Chargers Raiders. Does that fall into
your theory of a team that has something to play
for against team with nothing?
Speaker 1 (40:15):
Yeah, I mean the Chargers are already in so here.
Speaker 3 (40:18):
Here's the thing with But they win, they get the
five seed and get to play the Texans. Where would
they be favored in that game?
Speaker 1 (40:24):
Maybe the way that the Texans are going now. The
Texans are rare team that they're locked in.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
And game doesn't matter, but they want.
Speaker 1 (40:32):
To They say they're going to play their starters, but
they said they'll see how the game goes. So I
have no idea what to expect in that game. So
I don't know if that means like half, but they
need to find their offense without Dell, So I don't
know in that game. The Chargers though, if you want
to put a small bed in, uh, you know that
(40:53):
on the Raiders game, the Raiders Charges game is tied
to the Steelers Bengals game because.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
Raiders are hot. Yeah, Raiders are.
Speaker 1 (41:02):
Playing hard hard, but if the Steelers, if the Steelers win,
then the Chargers are locked in. So you know, if
if you if there's like if you wanted to put
a correlated parlay and you would bet uh Steelers money
(41:22):
line and Raiders money line, because if the Steelers win,
that line is gonna come down, because then I assume,
you know, Herbert sits and we don't. Maybe hardball still
start places starters, but I assume that they rest. If
the Steelers lose, then yeah, the Chargers can would I'm
assuming play everybody because then you can play the Texans
(41:42):
instead of presumably the rate the Ravens, which will put
you in a in a better spot. But yeah, that
that Chargers Raiders game doesn't really fit the bill because
the Chargers are already in but Raiders are playing hard. But
that game will just basically come down to the result
of Pittsburgh Cincinnati on Saturday night.
Speaker 3 (42:03):
Okay, sucky, we got to enjoy it. Well we got it, man,
so sad, but bittersweet because we still got a little
football and then the football gets really good and then
it just goes away. So this week, like you said,
something's gonna get something crazy is gonna.
Speaker 1 (42:18):
Happen, something weird's gonna happen.
Speaker 3 (42:19):
I can see Carl I got my own Carson Wentz.
I got I got my Russell Wilson. I guess. I mean,
Pittsburgh winning wouldn't even be that crazy, but I got
my own Carson Wentz. I could see Andy. You know,
he's just he's feeling himself right now. Just just add
another pelt to the wall, you know, be Carson Wentz
knocks out the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
It's weird.
Speaker 3 (42:39):
It doesn't feel like the Chiefs hate the Broncos like
they do like the Raiders. But I could I could
see them wanting to just, hey, hey, boys, let's let's
pump the brakes a little onto you guys and ruin
their season.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Yeah, I look it was. They were plus fourteen and
a half against Philip Rivers who needed to win they
get in their playoffs and they should have won that
game and ended up losing it over time. Just one
of those other weird things that happened, so wouldn't be shocked.
(43:11):
Week eighteen always tends to get a little weird. So
uh yeah, enjoy the football, will you can, and uh,
happy New Year and I'll see you next week. Brother.
Speaker 3 (43:21):
Yeah, I'll talk to you next week. We'll get we'll
dive into the playoffs and some futures we'll buckle up.
So have a good weekend, bro, I'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (43:28):
Yep, Happy newar Everyone cheers the volume
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
What is going on everybody?
Speaker 3 (00:17):
How are we doing? Hopefully everyone's having a good New
Year's having a good week. We're all thrown off.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
This two week stretch, especially with Christmas, Christmas Eve, New
Year's Eve, New Year's falling in the middle of the week,
back to back weeks can really throw you off, and I.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Definitely fall under that category. I got some sickness. I
don't know what it is. I just I can't shake it.
I'm gonna go try to sit in the sun and
steam room see if that will cure me. Because it's
been going on like five days now. It sucks, but
I'm thrown off. So instead of doing a mail bag
on Saturday, I talked to Stucky about twenty four hours ago,
(01:01):
and we got a big NFL weekend, at least a
couple of big games, a lot of other games that
are meaningless. It's it's impossible to know who's gonna play.
So we tried to dive in any trends, you know,
how to get our gamble on. We'll get a little
juwe flowing into the start of the new year. I
do think there are some interesting, you know, future bets
(01:23):
right now when you look at teams like you know,
from a value standpoint, it's hard to bet against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
But from a.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Value standpoint, the winner of the Ravens Bills game, you
can get both those to it, you know, close to
seven to one. So we'll talk a little bit about
that as well. Obviously, the playoffs coming up next week
with the NFL the college football semi finals, we have
coaches getting fired. I mean, it's gonna be a crazy,
crazy time in terms of the football world. So we
(01:50):
got we gotta strap in, buckle up, pedal to the
metal here and and yeah, so we will talk to
Stucky today. That will be it. No middlecoff mail bag.
I will bang out a few next week for sure.
I had Jackson come on after the Notre Dame game.
He's a big Notre Dame guy. So we did about
an hour of college football yesterday if you missed it,
so you can go check that out. Make sure you
subscribe to three and out. You know, if you listen
(02:12):
on college feed, make sure you subscribed to a three
and out feed YouTube channel has all of our content
as well. And yeah, let's dive into Stucky. It's bittersweet
because when you look at your DraftKings app all lines
here presented by our friends at DraftKings, And you realize
that it's week eighteen and college football's coming to a
(02:33):
screeching end football that you can see the end, the
light at the end of the tunnel where there just
is no football for a long period of time. And
that makes me sad. So I stopped complaining. If there
was a crappy game on a Thursday night, if there
was a crappy Monday night game, and I just said,
it's football, I was going to enjoy it. But then
I look at the lines this weekend. I think one
(02:55):
of my favorite lines of the weekend of the year
is my guy Stucky's squad the Ravens. I saw this morning.
They are laying eighteen points against the fighting Cleveland Browns,
who I know they were having a season from hell,
but when you look at the record and it says,
(03:16):
what are they three and thirteen? They are really really shitty.
I mean for a team just last year that won
eleven games, Wastfanski man, what a season from hell from
the Browns.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Yeah, it's I think that they're point Their team total
is eleven and a half. I think I think that's
what it's at, which is like as low as you'll
ever see in in the NFL. It's yeah, it is.
It is bitter sweet. There's only eight college we're recording
this on a Thursday. There's only eight college football games left,
(03:53):
and you e were heading into the final regular season
week in the NFL. But I am actually looking I'm
looking forward to the NFL playoffs. Like this regular season
it's been, it's been pretty bizarreming favorites have dominated. It's
been one of the most successful favorite years of all time.
And a lot of that is like in the NFL,
(04:13):
we usually have extreme parody, but that's just not been
the case this year. There's a chance we have nine
teams finish with four or fewer wins. I believe we've
never had more than seven, and there's an extra game now.
(04:33):
So just that there's been so many bad teams and
then a lot of those bad teams about injuries and
some of the quarterback situations on some of these bad
teams has just made the regular season not as exciting
as it usually is. But what I think that that
will lead to is a much more exciting playoffs. I mean,
(04:58):
you're gonna have a either a lie or Vikings team
that is currently fourteen and two. Both of them are fourteen.
The loser is the five seed, which is pretty insane.
But yeah, I think that, uh.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
I don't think we'll ever see a fourteen win five
seed again or right, very unlikely. I mean, that's that's
hard to get.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Yeah, it's insane. So I think that we're it's going
to be a really really good NFL playoffs. Just I mean,
in the AFC, can the Ravens or Bills get over
the hump against the Chiefs who seem to be putting
it together at the right time, And then the NFC,
it's it's pretty wide open. Can Detroit just get through
(05:45):
the NFST I mean they need to get the lines.
The game is huge against the Vikings because with their defensive injuries,
I mean, over the past three weeks they've been the
worst defense in the NFL. I mean, they give up
since all these injuries that they go forty eight to
even the Bears put up like four hundred yards. They
were moving the ball. And then last week the Niners
(06:07):
they did whatever they wanted on offense and it wasn't
like that a complete they had a Their offensive line
was a shell of itself. The semis I had a
sixty percent success right for the game. Only five other
teams have done that in a game this year. They
just missed field goals of course, as they always do,
and turned it over a couple times with the lines.
Can they That's why they need to get home field,
maybe get a bit healthier. You get to play at home,
(06:29):
but they're gonna have to win and shootouts, but you
have you know, you also have the Packers, the Vikings,
the Eagles to the NFC. I think is is really
exciting and pretty deep this year. You have a Rams
team that's going to be dangerous as well and can
beat anybody on any given Sunday. So yeah, I'm I'm
looking forward to the playoffs and I think that that
lack of parody is going to make for a more
(06:51):
exciting postseasons. You do have a lot of really good
teams this year.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
Well before before we dive in, I wrote down some
big picture of things I want to get into. Is
I think when you speak of the ships at the
bottom of the NFL on Monday night, you know, most
people in my life are forty nine er people and
everyone's like, should we be losing this game when it
looked like the forty nine ers were gonna win and
I was like they were having the season from hell.
And they're currently drafting eleven. So whether you win or
(07:16):
lose this game, drafting eleven or drafting fourteenth, if they
were drafting like fourth, yeah you should root for them
to lose, but they could lose out and they're still
not gonna draft in the top ten. So whether you
win a game or lose a game, it's not This
isn't the Giants, Raiders, Patriots situation. They can't They're not
playing in that sandbox. It's pretty insane. The Niners are
(07:38):
not gonna draft in the top ten. And that includes
if they lose this week to Arizona and they go
six and eleven. So that just shows you how crappy
and the Niners really don't have that much in common
with those teams. So's it feels right, but it's crazy
how bad you know, the bottom seven or eight have
truly been most of the season with the Giants, the Titans,
(07:58):
the Raiders, the I mean both of them have had
moments in a given game, but over the course of
like two month stretches, I mean, they are just putrid
football teams. So I hear you there. And when I
think big picture, I look today. I looked at some
futures right now the Chiefs rightfully, so they flipped a switch.
(08:18):
Holy shit, they look good again. Uh even you know,
my fiance keeps looking at me. She's like, are they
really gonna win it again? She asked me that yesterday
because there was some you know, ad about the NFL playoffs,
or she was looking at someone on Instagram like I
you know, I wouldn't have said yes a month ago,
but don't be surprised if it happens again. But I
do think there's some value assuming Baltimore wins. I mean,
(08:41):
they're almost a twenty point favorite. You can get Baltimore
Buffalo at plus six fifty. So if you took one
thousand dollars and put five hundred each, or put five
thousand dollars and splait it up, put twenty five hundred
each and basically just bet those two to win the
Super Bowl, right, because you know they're more than likely
going to play in the second round, and I do
(09:02):
think they would have a very good chance to win.
You know, if you're just playing the odds like are
the Chiefs gonna go back to the Super Bowl again?
Would be historic? Let alone win it eventually, Like I
remember Brady Belichick losing to Rex Ryan, Right, I remember
Brady and Belichick losing to Denver. Now granted, some of
these games that Rex Ryan game I think was at home,
(09:23):
Denver game when Gronk's ankle was messed up, was on
the road. So every situation's different. Kansasy is gonna host,
but I wonder if there's some value there. And basically,
but you gotta bet them both because you don't know
exactly who's gonna win that second game, right, But that's
you basically just take the two of them and you
bet them to win the Super Bowl. Because whoever wins
(09:43):
that game, I think you're gonna be feeling pretty good,
has a good chance against the Chiefs. And this year,
unlike last year, everyone's gonna be betting the Chiefs. Right
in that situation, yep.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
The only thing that what do you think about that logic?
Speaker 1 (10:01):
I don't hate it. I mean the one the potential
wrench that could get thrown into it is that the
Bengals make the playoffs. But and then you know, the
Bengals play. The Bengals can beat anybody. They'll probably find
a way to lose at the end, but they would
they would play the Bills that they get in in
that first game. And I see some people, like I've
(10:21):
seen social media, people are like, oh, the Chiefs are
sitting the starters because they don't want the Bengals in,
which is as nine because the Bengals would play the Bills,
and you would rather if you're the Chiefs, you'd rather
play the Bengals and that their defense than the Bills.
So you could, I think you would want the Bengals
in to potentially knock out the Bills. So yeah, I
mean it's I am anti Chiefs for this one reason.
(10:45):
Well I'm a Ravens fan one. But if they go
back to the Super Bowl, wouldn't you know, I gotta
I talk about the Super Bowl more than any game.
Do this show, my podcast, my shows, you know, and
that's it's two weeks and every year it's it's what
the chief Then we get two more weeks of just
the right the Chiefs are gonna win the Super Bowl?
I mean, what do you want me to say? So,
(11:06):
just from a freshness newness perspective, I am rooting for
the Chiefs not to get there, but yeah, it seems
like they're slowly. They just they peak at the right time.
They just know how to figure it out down the stretch.
And I think like that offense, I mean, Tony at
(11:26):
left tackles made a difference. They got Hollywood Brown back,
which makes their offense a bit more dynamic. I do
still think that there's questions in the secondary, which I
which could ultimately end up cost them this year because
last year their secondary was rock solid, but against Lamar
or Josh Allen that could end up being the difference.
(11:49):
And I do think that there's a couple of things
working in the Bills. The Bills and Ravens, I think
also are starting to peak as well, which makes the
AFC just that much more fascinating because the Bills are
getting healthier just across the board. They dealt with some
defensive injuries, some key defensive injuries down the stretch, and
the Ravens pass defense over the past six weeks top
(12:12):
three in the NFL, and this is a bottom five
unit earlier in the year. They made some schematic changes
and they moved some guys around, put Hamilton back at safety,
put a Darius Washington at safety instead of Marcus Williams,
kept humphering the slot, and the results are have been
very very good. So their pass defense, which is their
(12:33):
biggest weakness, is starting to trend up. So all three
of those teams are trending up. But it's the Chiefs
you got. You have to get up. You have to
get up on them, like you just can't have it
be you can't have it be as one possession game,
as the Bills know all too well, even if there's
thirteen seconds left, because you know that the Chiefs are
(12:54):
just going to find a way if they need to
have a final drive, especially at home, that they're gonna
win that close game. But yeah, if there was a year,
it's the Bills are Ravens are very very good this year.
But for fortunately for the Chiefs, Yeah, they're gonna have
to play each other.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Well, let's start with the Chiefs because Carson Wentz is
getting zero respect a ten and a half point dog.
Now it's not just Carson Wentz, right, I mean there
I would guess Travis Kelce will not have pads on,
Chris Jones will not have pads on. I mean he's
been banged up. I could see you know, McDuffie, Karlovska,
(13:32):
who knows, right, I mean, it's not like it's gonna
be is Xavier Worthy might have pads on but play
very limited snaps. This is must win for Denver, who
played in one of the most batshit games I think
we'll ever see. Well, I'm so thrown off on my
days right now, but whenever they played the Bengals, like
a week ago, five days ago, yesterday, I don't know
(13:54):
when that game, that game was bananas, but like I
do think they're pretty good and defensively, like the Bengals
are a tough matchup, but it's Carson Wentz sometimes in
this spot when you get a guy like that, like
there's a pretty big game for Carson Wentz and like
I think Andy like not necessarily trying to win or
(14:17):
lose the game, but he will take a lot of
pride in like Carson Wentz, like they will. They will
have a lot of effort like these four days leading
it up to this game. Now, this is a kitchen
sink game for Denver. Be a huge accomplishment to make
the playoffs, right with a rookie quarterback and everyone counted
them out when the season started, myself included, and they've
turned out their defense was actually pretty good undermans Joseph Benito.
(14:40):
I didn't even know that much about this guy, and
he's fucking dominated. But in really just their pass rush
in general, Like, I don't think anyone would have picked
them to lead the league in sacks right in August.
But this is kind of fascinating game. I just is
this just a lock? Denver just beats him like thirty
to ten? Or is this thing? You know? I think
I might take the Carson fighting Carson wentzz would Andy
(15:02):
Reid plus ten and a half?
Speaker 1 (15:04):
I would lean that way. I might take it.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
I just how's the number that there's a lot of them?
How's it that big?
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah, there's a lot of un I mean there's some
rumors that the Chiefs might even play like some Chris
Oladuke in their third string quarterback, which would make it
a little dicey. I mean it's the Chiefs offensive line
still does have some issues, so how much of those
this This Mahomes mask would be my concern against a
team that you know is going to send the blitz
can get pressure, but you.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
Don't want your backup quarterback to get injured either going
into the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Yeah, historically the in Week eighteen actually, for that matter,
the final two weeks of the regular season. If you
bet the teams and this doesn't this specific game doesn't
fit this mold exactly. But if you bet the teams
that are eliminated playing for nothing against the teams that
have to win, you have done very well. It's like
(15:59):
sixty against the spread. Why Well, a lot of times
you're paying a premium to back the team that needs
to win, and the other team usually will. They're still professionals,
they'll they're still gonna try, still gonna try to win,
and they can play looser in a way, and then
(16:19):
the team that needs to win plays tighter. They might
be a little bit too conservative, play too close to
the vest. So there's a lot of things that work
in the favor of these underdogs that are eliminated don't
need to win, Like the Jets, for example against the Dolphins,
they fit that. The Saints, I'm not sure if Davy
Derek Carr plays this week, and the Saints, like getting
(16:40):
two touchdowns against the Bucks fit that mold. And then here, yeah,
the Chiefs can come in here. They can play loose,
nothing to lose. And you know the Broncos Bnecks still
a rookie quarterback, a lot of pressure on him. It
just comes down to like how many guys do the
Chiefs actually sit. But we've seen the Chiefs in this situation,
(17:03):
this exact situation four times before. Back in twenty thirteen,
Chase Daniel started, Chiefs rested all their starters. They were
plus fourteen and a half against the Chargers, who needed
to win to get into the playoffs. I assume that
that was Rivers. The Chiefs were up ten late, they
(17:25):
blew a ten point lead, They missed a field goal
to win it. There was actually a penalty on the
Chargers that the NFL had come out after the game
and say they messed up and that should have been called.
Chargers ended up winning in overtime. Chiefs covered twenty seventeen.
They were plus three at Denver and they won. It
was actually Mahomes's first start when they sat up Alex
(17:47):
Smith twenty twenty, hen Chad Henny was plus seven versus
Herbert at the Chargers. That was a meaningless game. They
did get blown out in that game thirty eight twenty one,
and then last year when Gabbert started plus three and
a half at the Chargers, who in fairness were starting
easton Stick and the Chiefs ended up winning thirteen twelve.
(18:08):
So they've covered three of four games, all on the
road and division in this spot, and they should have
won three of the four. So it wouldn't shock me
if they were just in this game in the fourth quarter.
I just I just don't know to what extent are
(18:30):
they going to rest their starters, like how many are
they going to actually play some of their third string quarterback?
But the Chiefs are a very professional team and they've
been in the spot before, so I think they'll be
prepared and they'll put up a fight here. So yeah,
I think it's Chiefs are nothing at ten and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Well, if you remember the Mahomes game where he started
when he was the back of for Alex Smith, they
knew they were going to the playoffs, and I think
they elmer knew they were playing. I think they ended
up playing the Titans, and Andy gave like Doug Peterson,
maybe Doug was already gone, but Naggi and like his
offensive assistant, said, you attacked the game plan, you started
attacking the playoff opponents all be all attack Mahomes and
(19:11):
get ready for this game. They split it up. They
don't really even need to do that because they've already
they just played the Texans, right, They just they didn't
play the Chargers that long ago, and they're comfortable playing them,
so it's like they don't need to get that far ahead.
And they got the bye week, so it's like they
could just attack this week kind of like a normal week.
I just think that's a lot of points in a
(19:32):
situation where you you know, he knows their personnel pretty well.
That's this is a game I got circled. Wouldn't shock
me if I'm not saying Denver's gonna lose, but I
could just see that thing being weird and same thing.
You know, the Steelers got some fucking issues. I mean,
they are a completely different team and we've we talked
about it last week. You know, with their defensive injuries,
(19:53):
the coverage ability is just no longer there. They're just
not the same team. And obviously Cincinnati just I mean
their ability on offense is second to none. Throwing the ball,
I mean, Merl's playing out of his mind. I feel
like this is an easy one. He just picked Cincinnati,
but this also feels kind of classic Pittsburgh. I mean, shit,
they played on Christmas, so they've had a lot of
(20:16):
extra rest. Everyone's been shitting on them, and rightfully so,
but I mean still, I mean they are just everyone's
picking them be one and done in the playoffs, just
another Mike Tomlin seasons kind of worthless, got a hot start,
meant nothing. I wonder if this is game's gonna be
a little weirder than everyone just thinks. Cincinnati is a
(20:36):
lock to win this game.
Speaker 1 (20:38):
Yeah, I mean it's a class. There's been a couple
classic Tomlins spots though in the past three weeks that
just that haven't worked out. This would fit the mold
as another one. Joey Porter will be back. That's big
for the Steelers. They've really missed him in coverage. I
think a key to this game is does Amarius MEM's
(20:58):
playing for the Bengals game true game time decision at
right tackle and obviously be going up against what big
drop off for the Bengals tackles If their starters are
not in there, it could be trouble for Barrow. Who's
I mean, he's just playing amazing regardless right now, but
that could lead to like a few more just like
(21:20):
a few drive killers sacks, drive killing sacks, which might
end up making the difference a tough game for me
to bet. Because Bengals games right now, you know that
Burrow is just I mean, he's playing at an MVP level.
They're gonna put up points. They're very difficult to stop. Now,
the right tackle could make that a little murkier, the
(21:43):
right tackle situation. But and you also know their defense
isn't very good, so the other team is going to
be right there with them. I mean, go back to
that the Steelers Bengals first meeting, what about a month ago.
The Steelers did whatever they wanted on offense in that game.
So to me, this just feels like who's gonna have
(22:06):
the ball last? I mean, that's what Bengals games are
right now, because it's hard to get, it's hard to
stop them, and it's hard not to score on them.
So yeah, this feels like I don't mind the series
is like a teaser piece because this feels like last
team with the ball wins. But Mims at right tackle.
That's why I'm watching because if he doesn't play that
(22:28):
just could ruin maybe one or two drives for the Bengals,
and that could be the difference, because it's very difficult
to rely on their defense right now and count on
them to get any stops.
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Speaker 3 (24:20):
Okay, let's go, uh, I mean, record wise, pretty historic
matchup game of the year, the Detroit Lions hosting the
Minnesota Vikings. My takeaway halfway through that game was on
Monday night, was Detroit has no chance in the playoffs
with this level of defense. And honestly, at that point
about halftime, like, I don't see how they can beat
(24:40):
Minnesota when they just can't stop anybody. Then the second half,
I mean, your defense can be awful if your offense
is dominant, which there is, and then you just get
some turnovers, which is obviously a little random. You either
need the quarterback to throw you the ball like Perty did,
or create a fumble. And I do think that they
(25:00):
have a chance once the game ended and you realize, okay,
I see their path offense basically has a score or
just you know, be elite. You're not gonna score in
every drive like he did against the Niners against Minnesota.
I think it's fair to say, but you still should
be able to put up I would say twenty five
to thirty points and then just create a turnover, whether
that's Sam Donald throwing you the ball, forcing a fumble somehow,
(25:23):
It's like that is their path because they're just not
gonna get stops consistently. They're just not even close to
good enough right now. It's not someone's fault. It's not
a camp blagn the defensive coordinator or players suck. I mean,
they just got a million injuries. Now they might get
guys back and maybe by you know, if they can
win this game. But I like, I do see the
path of winning this game in to me, at parallels
(25:47):
that Niner game. Score a lot of points, create some turnovers,
because if they're not creating turnovers, I see zero chance
if Sam Donald is gonna play like the guy we
have seen, like unless he just has one of his
awful games, which he hasn't had an while. I think
it's gonna be tough. But that Lion's offense sometimes they
score too fast. I mean that's they're just so explosive,
(26:10):
and then you just put your defense back on the
field instead of just slow. And that's where probably Montgomery
would help a little bit, just like seven yard runs
instead of Gibbs gets in the open fields, Like God,
they just gained forty yards. You know, you're like, holy shit, Like,
don't throw the ball to Jameis and Williams. He might
go for like fifty. You just need like a fifteen
yard chunk play. But I think a lot of people
are gonna take Minnesota Minnesota plus two and a half.
(26:33):
I don't know if I could take Detroit laying the points,
but I do see the scenario where Detroit wins this game.
It just they almost just have to be perfect, And
that's that's kind of sad because obviously Minnesota's had a
storybook season. But I'd say the same thing for Detroit,
and you could argue it's even more impressive given the
amount of injuries they've had over the last two months
to even be in this situation. I mean, how many.
(26:55):
This is a pretty big moment this last month plus
for Campbell of like they could have easily turned in
do an eleven win season or twelve win season and
no one would have blamed anybody. But it didn't, and
now they're fucking here. And even even the game against
the Niners that that was I'm sure you've seen all
these stories coming out the Colts, like how embarrassing all
that stuff is. Even the Niners had a shitty season.
You want, Fred Warner's injured playing his ass off, George Kittle, Deebo.
(27:18):
Same with the Lions. They both teams approached that game
like this is this is the NFC Championship game, point
two point zero, so like it's just kind of refreshing.
It's like, no ship, the Lions are good, like that's
how they approach that's how That's how the Chiefs approach
shit like good teams approach things a certain way, win
or lose. And uh, I actually earned a lot of
respect in that game on Monday night, game that they
(27:40):
they did not need. Right, Well, they could have lost
it and they still would have been the same situation.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Yeah. The only the only time it would have mattered
is if this game ended in a tie, then that
game will ultimately matter. But Dan Campbell, can you ever
see Dan Campbell tying the game? I don't think that's possible.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
I wonder too, playing the Niners who knocked them out
last year, I know they were having a bad season.
Would he have done the same if they were like
at the Giants, maybe would have been easier. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Yeah, I mean it was the Yeah, I mean I
definitely assumed that they were going to play everybody, but
it was a little I was a little more on
the fence of what they should do, just because the
injuries have been so catastrophic on the defensive end. It
was like, man, you really can't afford Now, luckily they
got through the game unscathed, but I like, you cannot
(28:31):
afford any more injuries on that defense because, yeah, they're
not getting any stops unless they're getting turnovers or the
other team's missing fueld goals. I will say, I mean,
this offense can score against anybody, but They've really dominated
this head to head match up with Flores Golf in
particular over the past two years. So Ben Johnson has
(28:52):
gotten the best of Flores. They have they just have
answers to the blitz and some of the things that
Flores used. Really interesting chess match there. I'm curious to
see if like Flora's changes things up because GoF has
really good numbers against the Vikes.
Speaker 3 (29:07):
Why why do you think that is like the quick game,
he gets rid of the ball quick. They got a
lot of guys to sit in zone and.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
A really good offensive line. And at the end of
the day, the Vikings set like a lot of what
they do, Like they have a good front, they're good
against the run, and they're going to show you exotic looks,
bring exotic blitzes. Usually going to have a good game
plan under Flores, but their secondary isn't overly talented, So
(29:37):
like they're beatable if you can, you know, protect and
get rid of the ball quick and you have a
good scheme. And that's what the lines. The lines check
all those boxes. So I mean, if you look back
at the game earlier this season Golf, I mean it
was the linees one thirty one twenty nine golf was
twenty two of twenty five for two to eighty two
(29:59):
touchdo downs, no interceptions, and like those That's basically what
his numbers the two meetings last year. So I'm curious
to watch that chess match. What does Flores? Does he
try to do anything differently here? It's a tough game
to bet. I mean you, the total is so high
for a divisional game with a lot on the line.
It was it got up to I think fifty eight.
(30:20):
You couldn't pay me to bet the under in this game.
Now it's super high. It's down to like fifty six
and a half. Most of these totals that are this
high do go under in the NFL because you just
need a lot to go right to go over. You know,
you just have a couple of long drives that end
in field goals, or you know, Donald throws a red
zone pick. It's hard to get into the sixties in
(30:41):
the NFL. But I mean, from what I've seen from
this Lin's offense in particular against the Vikings too, and
then the way that this Lion's defense is trending, who's
getting stops here from now? From a side perspective, what
determines this? I mean, you you hit on the head,
does Darnald He's gonna put the ball in harm's way
(31:04):
a couple of times a game. Just what he's going
to do. He's also going to make some really good throws.
But do the Kenda Lions turn them over? Because getting
one stop via turnover in this game is massive. And
then the other thing is, you know Campbell, especially now
Campbell with his defense, he knows that his defense is
(31:26):
not going to get many stops. He was already uber
aggressive on fourth downs. Why and you have an elite offense,
why not be even more aggressive? Which I expect we
saw that last week. So do the Lions on it's
fourth and five at the eighteen at the Vikings eighteenth,
(31:47):
do they get that and score a touchdown? Or do
they turn it over on downs? Then probably not gonna
stop like that's those are. There's probably gonna be like
two to three plays that the termine this the side
and who wins the game and who wins the division
ultimately who gets the number one seed? And I'll buy
and it'll probably be maybe a couple of fourth downs
for the Lions. Do they get them? So that and
That's where the chess match comes in. What does Johnson
(32:08):
have called? What does Flores do in that situation? And
then does the two or three balls that Donald puts
in Harm's way? Does the Lions come down with one
of them or two? If so, they probably win. So
I think the line's about right, really entertaining game and uh,
hell of a way to cap off the regular season.
(32:29):
But not sure I'll actually have a wager on it
because I it's just a couple of fourth downs, a
couple of Donald balls probably determine who gets the one
seed in the NFC pretty well?
Speaker 3 (32:39):
Are the Are the Rams locked into three? No?
Speaker 1 (32:44):
They're not?
Speaker 3 (32:45):
Why Why why are they punting on this week?
Speaker 1 (32:47):
Like?
Speaker 3 (32:47):
Because wouldn't because if you're yeah, if you're Tampa, you'd
want to play You'd want Detroit to lose this game,
I think, right, just because their defense so bad? Like
you is that who? You already beat them? I know
that a weird game, But wouldn't you rather wouldn't those
two teams rather play Detroit given where they're at right
now defensively than Minnesota?
Speaker 1 (33:08):
Yeah? I mean the Rams beat the Vikings. It was
a weird spot, like they were on a short week
on the road. Yeah, so the Rams can improve their seating,
but historically you can go back to twenty sixteen, I believe,
and even last year, McVeigh doesn't care about seating. So
(33:33):
I bet the see Hawks early in the week, assuming
that McVeigh would bench his starters, because in the past,
even with a chance to improve his seating, he chooses
rest in the final week, let's not risk injury and
get ready for our first opponent over improving your seating.
(33:56):
And you know, so he just that's his full Every
coach is different. You know, you can just say like, hey,
we're gonna have to beat these teams eventually. I just
want to make sure that you know, they're a very
star driven team. And the reason I like the Seahawks
this week is that, like they're gonna start Jimmy G's
professional good you know, professional backup, but they're gonna bench
(34:16):
other guys and the Rams. If there's one thing the
Rams don't have relative to other teams in the league,
it's depth. They're not a deep team. A lot of
that is because of their draft situation and roster situation.
Very top heavy team. You see that in the preseason,
like the Rams in the preseason it can get ugly.
So again, the Seahawks, I think I trust McDonald to
(34:38):
have them focused. Gino has like he can make he
can get like four million dollars in incentives this week,
So I think the Seahawks will show up. And the
Rams are basically booting this game. They did it last
year too, but the forty nine ers also booted it
and they were both resting starters and they ended up winning.
But in twenty sixteen they ended up getting blown out
(35:00):
and they didn't improve their seeding when they could have.
So it was the same exact situation. They clinched the
division the week before, could have could have been the
three or the four. Didn't care. So yeah, but if
they lose, you know, you punt this game, then you're
getting your path is and this is why some Rams
(35:20):
fans are upset. Your path is going to be the
loser of Detroit Minnesota and then the winner on the road.
So you know, you're you have the two teams that
are fourteen and two right now, that's going to be
your path if you lose this game. So but that's
mcveigh's philosophy, is consistent in it, and he just values
(35:43):
health over anything else. So yeah, definitely an interesting one.
But that the Seahawks have taken a ton of money.
They're aftter like a six to six and a half
point favorite.
Speaker 3 (35:53):
So of the two teams that really just need to
win to control their own destiny to get in Denver
and Tampa, who would you you red flag because you
mentioned the Rizzy getting almost two touchdowns. Tampa's really kind
of looks like they're firing on all cylinders. Get a
little life after that devastating l by the Atlanta Falcons,
(36:14):
I'd be a little stunned of Tampa we to lose
this week. I mean, obviously, I mean they are two
touchdown favored, but I mean the Saints.
Speaker 1 (36:22):
I took some Saints plus fourteen. Now they are bad.
I mean, I think the line is inflated, like you're
paying a premium on the Bucks to because you know
they need to win. The Saints are bad, but I
mean the Saints have been the Saints were the Saints.
We're getting fourteen in green Bay with Rattler and their
whole team hurt, So I think green Bay is a
little better than Tampa. But and this is a divisional game,
(36:45):
homefield isn't. Yeah, it's it's not twenty degrees in Green Bay.
Homefield is much less here, especially just in a divisional
game in general, where it could get interesting. For I
didn't even looked at news today for the Bucks. I mean,
because the Bucks, I I shouldn't.
Speaker 3 (37:03):
Say they're not and didn't practice again.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
Yeah, but there's a chance, I mean, like I haven't
checked updated news today. But there's a chance that Kamara
he wants to play. There's a chance that uh a
lave he said he wants to play. So and then
(37:27):
the craziest one is if Car plays. So there was
a chance that he potentially could have played last week
like he was practicing, but they said like he wasn't
comfortable enough in the pocket. So there's there's an outside
chance that Car suits up and that if that was
(37:48):
the case, you know, if you have your offense looks
a lot healthier. The Saints have a puncher's chance. I mean,
they're a loss with Rattler at quarterback or if it's
if it's Hain. So yeah, I think the latest news
I saw is he's gonna he's gonna try to do
like a simulated game, and there's an outside chance he plays.
(38:13):
That's the only way that I could see the Bucks losing.
It would be super interesting. But I know that the
Saints are They've come out and said that they want
to play for their community and with due to the
after the tragedy that to happen. And it's a divisional game,
and you have your rival that put up fifty on
(38:34):
you in New Orleans earlier this year, you can end
their season. The Saints will show up now they have
enough talent. I'm not sure, but there's an outside chance
that you get car Tamara and a couple other players healthier.
And if that was the case, yeah, you're you're gonna
want to have fourteen points in your pocket, which isn't
(38:56):
a lot to cover, even if it is rattler and
and have really banged up bad Saints team. So and
I the in Week eighteen, and you know, in in
previous years, back in the day, it was Week seventeen.
But in the final week of the NFL reglar season,
there's usually one crazy thing that happens of a team
(39:19):
that you just expect, assume is going to win, that
needs to win and doesn't a lot of times it
was like the Colts, the Colts would always Colts would
always lose to the Jags. But there's been countless examples.
I mean like Vikings Cardinals, I remember way back in
the day. I think that was like on the last
play of the game. But there's I remember the Ravens
(39:42):
UH played the Bengals at home in the final week
of the regular season, needed to win and they lost
on like the final play. That was devastating loss, and
it was just assumed that they were going to win
that game. Like weird things happen in the final week.
So what I be surprised if the Saints or the
(40:04):
Chiefs were tied in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
No not Charger Chargers, Chargers Raiders. Does that fall into
your theory of a team that has something to play
for against team with nothing?
Speaker 1 (40:15):
Yeah, I mean the Chargers are already in so here.
Speaker 3 (40:18):
Here's the thing with But they win, they get the
five seed and get to play the Texans. Where would
they be favored in that game?
Speaker 1 (40:24):
Maybe the way that the Texans are going now. The
Texans are rare team that they're locked in.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
And game doesn't matter, but they want.
Speaker 1 (40:32):
To They say they're going to play their starters, but
they said they'll see how the game goes. So I
have no idea what to expect in that game. So
I don't know if that means like half, but they
need to find their offense without Dell, So I don't
know in that game. The Chargers though, if you want
to put a small bed in, uh, you know that
(40:53):
on the Raiders game, the Raiders Charges game is tied
to the Steelers Bengals game because.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
Raiders are hot. Yeah, Raiders are.
Speaker 1 (41:02):
Playing hard hard, but if the Steelers, if the Steelers win,
then the Chargers are locked in. So you know, if
if you if there's like if you wanted to put
a correlated parlay and you would bet uh Steelers money
(41:22):
line and Raiders money line, because if the Steelers win,
that line is gonna come down, because then I assume,
you know, Herbert sits and we don't. Maybe hardball still
start places starters, but I assume that they rest. If
the Steelers lose, then yeah, the Chargers can would I'm
assuming play everybody because then you can play the Texans
(41:42):
instead of presumably the rate the Ravens, which will put
you in a in a better spot. But yeah, that
that Chargers Raiders game doesn't really fit the bill because
the Chargers are already in but Raiders are playing hard. But
that game will just basically come down to the result
of Pittsburgh Cincinnati on Saturday night.
Speaker 3 (42:03):
Okay, sucky, we got to enjoy it. Well we got it, man,
so sad, but bittersweet because we still got a little
football and then the football gets really good and then
it just goes away. So this week, like you said,
something's gonna get something crazy is gonna.
Speaker 1 (42:18):
Happen, something weird's gonna happen.
Speaker 3 (42:19):
I can see Carl I got my own Carson Wentz.
I got I got my Russell Wilson. I guess. I mean,
Pittsburgh winning wouldn't even be that crazy, but I got
my own Carson Wentz. I could see Andy. You know,
he's just he's feeling himself right now. Just just add
another pelt to the wall, you know, be Carson Wentz
knocks out the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
It's weird.
Speaker 3 (42:39):
It doesn't feel like the Chiefs hate the Broncos like
they do like the Raiders. But I could I could
see them wanting to just, hey, hey, boys, let's let's
pump the brakes a little onto you guys and ruin
their season.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Yeah, I look it was. They were plus fourteen and
a half against Philip Rivers who needed to win they
get in their playoffs and they should have won that
game and ended up losing it over time. Just one
of those other weird things that happened, so wouldn't be shocked.
(43:11):
Week eighteen always tends to get a little weird. So
uh yeah, enjoy the football, will you can, and uh,
happy New Year and I'll see you next week. Brother.
Speaker 3 (43:21):
Yeah, I'll talk to you next week. We'll get we'll
dive into the playoffs and some futures we'll buckle up.
So have a good weekend, bro, I'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (43:28):
Yep, Happy newar Everyone cheers the volume
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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