3 & Out - Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeat Penn State in THRILLING College Football Playoff battle - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? I'm John,
this is three and our podcast. I just watched Drew
Aller throw an interception with under a minute to go
and then Notre Dame getting the field goal range. I mean,
they basically were winning through the pick and win the game,

(00:35):
and they punched their ticket to the National championship. So
if you're a Notre Dame fan, congratulations. We will do
a reaction right off the top. We'll discuss Notre Dame,
Marcus Freeman, Riley Leonard. But to me, Drew Aller, who
I had been anointing and saying, God, keep an eye

(00:56):
on this guy for the draft. We can take that, take,
roll it up and throw it in the trash. Because
I apologize for saying that tonight was I can't granted
I had you know, I took Penn State, but geez
Luise abdul Carter though, looks like I would bet on
that guy. Same with Tyler Warren. So tough night for

(01:17):
James Franklin and Penn State who were up late. But
we'll dive into the game. Stucky will join us too.
We'll go over gambling, we'll go game by game. Coming
up for this playoff weekend Saturday, Sunday, Monday got a
lot of action. I guess at Monday now is moved
to Arizona. It doesn't change to the matchup or the spread.
But other than that, make sure you subscribe to the

(01:38):
podcast if you listen on Collins Feed, and also make
sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel. All of our
content is up there as well. So let's dive into
some football. Let's start with Marcus Freeman because when he
first got the job and he lost to Marshall, I
remember too he was in a game like an absolute

(02:01):
dogfight against Cal. I'm like, I don't know if he's
gonna make it through his first year, and kind of
righted the ship. And obviously since then the recruiting has
gone up another level. Last year they were pretty solid,
and this year they lose to NIU and it felt
like is it happening again? And they clearly got Riley

(02:24):
Leonard rolling their defense is fantastic. And now a couple
months later, they've beaten Georgia and Penn State and there
waiting for the winner of Ohio State in Texas. So
just an incredible accomplishment. I mean, tonight it is about
two guys, one guy's thirty eight and if you watched
any of the viral clips of the two of them
at press conferences, James Franklin's kind of like a podcaster,

(02:45):
never shuts up, always has takes, which I appreciate. And
Marcus Freeman was serious as a heart attack, trying not
to take the bait, but trying not to be an asshole.
But he had much more of a vibe like I'm
here to kick ass and take James, and James his
personality is what it is. He's a recruiter, outgoing personality,
but can't win this game. And we talked about it

(03:09):
coming in like once Marcus Freeman beats Georgia, it's like
that is an enormous win. I don't want to say
he's playing with house money, but one of their best
defensive lineman's injured. Their start running back is playing with
a huge brace on his knee, and hell, before the
Indiana game he was battling another injury. And they lose

(03:30):
multiple offensive linemen in this game. Their quarterback at one
point in time looks like it gets a concussion. Then
they bring in the backup, who, as someone told me,
they're like you realize he was the Tony the Tiger
MVP last year of their bowl game, Like, what do
you mean? He's like, heyay, he started the bowl game
and he was the MVP. So I went back and looked,
and he threw for like two hundred and fifty yards
and three touchdowns. And then I'm watching him slinging around

(03:51):
on that final drive of the first half. I'm like,
I kind of hope Riley Leonard comes back in the
second half. Leonard throws an awful interception to the defensive end.
But they just made and their defense, their past defense
was fantastic. Part of that was Drew Aller. But just listen,
that's a fantastic win by Notre Dame. They could lose
by however many in the National Championship. Who gives a shit.

(04:14):
I mean, Marcus Freeman, that martial loss, that NIU loss,
I don't want to say it gets a race, but
no one's talking about that anymore. And then ANIU loss
was going to be really hard for him to shake.
And now it feels like this basically erases it all.
And to win the way they did, I mean, they're

(04:35):
down ten to nothing and then they come storming back
on a seventeen run to take the lead seventeen to ten.
Then Penn State takes the lead twenty four to seven,
and listen, I got Penn State. I'm like, I'm feeling
pretty good here. Penn State got their mojo back. Obviously,
Penn State blows the coverage, you got trips wide, receiver,

(04:56):
makes the safety miss in space, scores he's the game.
Then Penn State goes three and out with like under
three minutes to go. I mean, just a terrible series,
god awful series. And Notre Dame against the ball they're driving.
And then listen, Penn State's pass rush is elite. Abdul

(05:17):
Carter who will get into here in a second, and
they just make a couple of big plays. They forced
Notre Dame to punt with under a minute and then
Drew Aller who to me, besides Marcus Freeman winning this game.
To me, the headline for Penn State is James Franklin
loses another big game and their quarterback crumbles. This was

(05:38):
a guy that I was kind of buying into, and
I drank the kool aid. I'm like, this guy is
an ascending talent. Look at what he's done the last
couple of games, watch this guy pass some of those
throws that he made against Oregon, some of the throws
that he made against Boise State, and then he realized,
eh senad home controlled environment and just letting it loose.

(05:59):
And then you watch the night he's throwing balls off
his back foot like he's Jordan Lover Aaron Rodgers. Turns
out he's like Jameis Winston and balls are just floating
up in the air. They're not even close to his
wide receiver. He got bailed out on a pick because
of a questionable pass interference call. But he was atrocious.
I mean he really was. And as someone who thought

(06:22):
that he had some momentum coming in like hell and listen,
people in the NFL have been talking about it too.
Could he enter the draft, could he you know, could
he make a lake push if they were to win
this game and he were to look good, you know,
to compete for like a top ten pick. I mean
tonight he looked like a sixth rounder. He looked awful.
And it's one thing like you're getting pressured, you're getting

(06:45):
overwhelmed the line of scrimmage. He was just not very
frenetic in the pocket. Refused to set his feet, throwing
just off his back foot, floating balls in the air
that were just really, really bad. Talk about a guy.
I don't want to say he hurt his stock because
he wasn't even declared to come out to the draft,

(07:06):
But like that conversation ended at night, go back to school.
I do think you know he's not a great athlete.
Right at one point in time when all the hype
was growing a couple of years ago, when he was
about to be the star, it was like we got
a Josh Allen. Well we saw tonight at Riley Leonard,
who is a much much better runner of the football,

(07:28):
and honestly, to Knight was a much better thrower. I mean,
made some fantastic throws to his tight end, putting it
above DBS. But to me, Drew Aller, that that performance
tonight leaves a stinking everyone that watched it that's in
the NFL, that would just be like, go back to school,
man's that's the right move. Go back to school, work
on your craft. Because that interception he threw across his

(07:52):
body over the middle of the field that lost Penn
State the game is something that's gonna be hard for him.
To like walk back on campus. There is no telling
it's twenty four to twenty four that you're no lock
to win the game, no guarantee at all. And I
got no problem being aggressive. Right. You have Tyler Warren's

(08:13):
a top twenty pick Singleton who does not get the
ball enough. Number ten. I like Allen, But to me,
the ratio of those two guys, it should be like
eighty percent ten, twenty percent thirteen. But it feels like
they give they have like some I don't know if
it's in the nil deals that they have to get
an equal share of the carries. But it's insane. But

(08:36):
Singleton's a starting NFL running back. And you know, Singleton
a couple times was open and Aler didn't become close
to hitting him. There was one that he would have
scored early in the game that they had to settle
for a field goal that he technically dropped. But it
was an atrocious pass. It was it was like a
little it was a little route to the flat that

(08:57):
would have would have walked right in if he just
lays it on his hands and said he throws it
behind him, me like hits him in the knee, and
that interception is just something that it just cannot happen,
not when you've been a multi year starter, not in
a game of this magnitude, Like just eat the ball,
worst case scenario, under no circumstances can you turn it over. Honestly,

(09:20):
in that spot, especially on that play where his first
read wasn't open, he kind of he didn't really scramble,
but he shuffled his feet, he moved in the pocket.
You are much better off just throwing the ball into
the dirt or at the guy's feet than putting it
in arms way, because honestly, he hit the Notre Dame
defensive back in stride, And that's just something that's gonna

(09:44):
that'd be really really hard if you're a die hard
Penn State fan to this is one thing to lose
the game. Notre Dame's clearly really good. They have a
ton of NFL talent. They have a ton of young
sophomore and freshman guys that are gonna be NFL players.
They obviously have a really good coach. They have an
excellent defensive coordinator Alt Golden. You might have lost in overtime,

(10:06):
but you can't lose it that way. And it's hard,
Like I don't necessarily put that individual throw on James Franklin,
but the entire performance in the second half. They went
into halftime and I thought for ninety percent of the
first half, Penn State was kicking the shit out of
Notre Dame. They were shoving him around. Honestly, if it

(10:29):
wasn't for the Penn State offensive coordinator who everyone just
gets on their knees and is just constantly like giving
them a reach around. Col Necky Cole Necki cold NECKI.
So I just hear everyone talking about it. I'm like, yeah,
col Necky, Colncki, this guy's a great offensive coordinator. I'm
watching the tonight, like, what are you doing? Why do
you keep insists on passing it? When Notre Dame's defensive

(10:50):
backfield is actually pretty good and your quarterback you could
tell like through the first couple series. Someone needs to
talk to this guy on the sideline. Someone needs to
get him calmed down. He is way off. He looks rattled,
and I don't even know why he would be. It's
not like he'd even been touched, but he had been
really bad. And you're running the ball with ease right
down their throat, keep running the ball. But he kept
passing it, passing it, passing it, passing it. Honestly, the

(11:12):
first half felt like it should have been twenty to three.
Instead it's ten to three. They come out in the
second half because notre name gets the ball, goes right
down the field, score a touchdown, and then Penn State
comes out and looks at crap. It's like Marcus Freeman.
I don't know what he said to the boys at halftime,
but whatever he said worked. I don't even know if
James Franklin said a word because they came out lifeless

(11:34):
and that's when everything really flipped. And I just listen
James Franklin. There's no disputing the talent. The guy can accumulate,
he can isolate elite players, he can recruit elite players,
and he can get them to come to Penn State
because I mean they might got I mean Abdua Carter.

(11:55):
You could make the argument he should be the if
you're not comfortable with one of these quarters being a
top fifteen player at his position in the NFL, Like
if you don't think cam Ward or should or Sanders
gonna be a top half starter in the NFL, and
you wanted to take abdual Carter number one overall. If
you're the Tennessee Titans, I could not argue with you.
He is basically has the same measurables as Micah Parsons

(12:18):
six ' three, about two hundred and forty two hundred
and forty five pounds. His past rushing ability to get
around the edge is elite. And the other thing that
he's proven these last couple of games, clearly a shoulder
or arm is kind of messed up. He's playing in
pain and he's playing his ass off. And the athleticism,
the violence, his ability to get down the line of

(12:40):
scribbinge and make plays, his ability to chase guys downs.
He just like, there's not much you can do. That move,
that speed move when you're at that size translates and
if you go. He has a lot of similarities to
Micah Parsons. This year he was the Big ten Defensive
Player of the Year All American. Like that's gonna work

(13:01):
in the NFL. I have a hard time seeing him
not be a high end pass rusher in the NFL.
Like that what he has translates, like that works. He
should definitely be in the conversation for the number one
overall picks. So you're talking about a team that has
a guy that's worthy of the number one overall pick,
one of the best playmakers in the draft in Warren

(13:24):
an NFL starting running back in Singleton, and the downfall
of them tonight was the quarterback. Meanwhile, you got a
quarterback in Riley Leonard who outplays Aller, and Listen Collins
been saying this like he kind of likes Riley Leonard.
I'm like, I don't know, he doesn't pass the ball ball,
and then tonight he just threw some dimes. Obviously as
a runner, he's fantastic. And their star running back Love

(13:48):
is battling a knee injury that he hurt last week,
so he puts on the big brace and pregame they're like, yeah,
I don't know how much he's gonna be able to
give him, And even Marcus Freeman before the game is like,
he'll give us what he's got. And at first he
was barely playing the first half, You're like, yeah, it's
probably just not gonna have it tonight because he's injured.
And then the second half, I don't know if he
warned that thing up at halftime. He's looked much better,

(14:09):
scored a fantastic touchdown where he refused to be denied.
He jumped over a guy, which I guess was a
sixth time he's done it this year. No, granted he
used the other leg, but from a talent standpoint, especially
as the injury started mounting up for Notre Dame, Penn
State had dramatically more talent on the field. So James Franklin,

(14:30):
when you're the CEO head coach, to come out in
the second half, when you had been playing so well
in the first half and be so lifeless, Like isn't
your You're the raw rock guy, Like that's your get,
Like you're the Mike Tomlin, You're the Jim Harbaugh. You're
not calling either side of the ball. You just stand
there on the sideline looking at the play call, but
your headsets up. And Marcus Freeman, who's also you know,

(14:53):
he's not the defensive offensive coordinator, like fucking rally the
troops at halftime and came out swinging, came out for
Blo Bud Man. I'm a little lamped up because I
had Penn State tonight. But man, the one thing is
when you gamble on a team you like get a
much better feel for him. And obviously, if I knew
that Drew Aller was gonna look like a scrub, I
never would have made that wager. But you talk about

(15:16):
a guy that and I wasn't alone. I was texting
around a lot of people were very interested to watch
it tonight, and he crumbled like a cookie. I mean,
he just he completely fell apart even before the throw.
That is one of the worst throws you'll see in
all of Bowl season. Jalen Milroe had a couple in
his game against Michigan, but given the stakes, that final
throw by Drew Aller is the worst throw of the

(15:38):
playoffs so far. You remove that throw. The rest of
the game was like a C minus D plus and
that obviously throw is an F. I mean, it doesn't
get any worse. And pretty cool moment that Notre Dame's
kicking game was so bad most of the season, and
then for the guy to hit the game winner with
his dad filming like it was a very entertaining game

(16:02):
and just listen one knock on Brian Kelly was like,
you know, he couldn't win the big game, couldn't win
the big game. And then you get Brian Kelly playing
Kirby smart who's won multiple national championships, beats him. Then
he plays Penn State with I mean, some of the
best players in the country that are all gonna get
drafted really really high, beats them. Now, one takeaway I

(16:24):
had is, even if Penn State had pulled this off,
I think the National Championship is Friday, which most people
think Ohio State's gonna win, rightfully so, And obviously if
Texas were to Upstate upset Ohio State, it'd be easy
to be excited about Texas. I have a hard time
seeing Notre Dame beat either one of those teams. Especially

(16:45):
we'll find out, well maybe we won't, because it's not
the pros. It's college football. The health of I mean,
you start missing your left tackle, it's hard and listen,
you gotta be football nerd. But even before the season,
a guy that was potentially to be a first round pick,
they're starting left tackle might have been their right tackle.
Definitely one of their tackles, like Torres Knee is out
for the season. So this is a team that I mean,

(17:08):
you are on some serious backups on the offensive line,
but Notre Dame's tough man. They are mentally tough, They're
mentally tougher than Penn State. That's for fucking damn sure.
I mean, it does not feel like Notre Dame would
have blown the coverage with what was on the line,
with like under five minutes ago, would not have happened.
That they might have given up a completion, but that

(17:30):
given play would not have happened. That play kind of
symbolizes like the James Franklin run. You're up twenty four
to seven, only a couple minutes left in the game.
You could argue your best unit defense, your all star
players are all out on the field, which is weird
because they had looked terrible in the second half. Countless

(17:51):
drives Notre Dame drove right down their throat. I don't
know if Penn State was gassed. I don't know if
they're just the wear and tear from the season. So
most games Penn State's ever played in the history of
their program. Now, granted, it's probably gonna be the case
for all these teams, given it's you know, the playoffs
are so long, and you know those teams have played

(18:12):
in the first round, But that defense, from what they
look like early in the game to what they were
at the end, was just even the second half as
a whole was a shelf itself, and that you deserve
credit if you're Marcus Freeman, like your guys did not
get tired. You had backups who are ready to roll.
I mean, how your backup quarterback came inn't let an
easy field goal drive. Honestly, I was kind of nervous

(18:32):
is going to lead a touchdown drive? And I just
think Marcus Freeman to be a guy under forty to
have your team in the national championship when you have
things you have to overcome, like academic requirements you don't get.
You have things that you have to battle in terms
of your administration, with your the academic standing of your

(18:55):
institution that Kirby Smart doesn't, that Alabama does not, Day
does not, that the top programs in the country do
not have to battle that you have to and you've
still found a way to put together a team. It's
fucking good. So congrats a Notre Dame, very very cool game.

(19:15):
You know, Ohio State Notre Dame that they've played obviously
a couple of years ago, that that'd be a fun matchup.
I don't think we could lose. I mean, if you're
a television network. Notre Dame is kind of like the
Dallas Cowboys, you know, of college football. They haven't won
a national championship in a long time, but you put
them on TV that the needle has moved a lot
of people watch. And obviously Texas and Ohio State are

(19:37):
massive brands. So whoever wins this game tomorrow playing Notre
Dame and listen, Notre Dame is going to be an
underdog and it's gonna be all the pressure would be
on Texas Ohio State in that game, which is kind
of a good spot to be if you're Marcus Freeman.
And the reality is, even if you were to get
your ass kicked in that game, it's it feels like

(19:58):
a more impressive season than any of the ones that
Brian Kelly ever had, and in a weird way that
James Franklin. You get to the final four and it
feels really good. When you really look at it, it's like, well,
he beat SMU at home, who we all think SMU
kind of you know, sucks for a playoff team. And
then you beat Boise State, you know who, listen, we

(20:20):
respect Boise State, but how good really was it? And
then you lose a game that you were up twenty
four to seventeen late in the fourth quarter. It's like,
for as awesome as this two week stretch has been
for Marcus Freeman, you could say tonight was just as
bad for James Franklin. It's just another one. It's just like, Oh,

(20:42):
you can't beat Ohio State, can't beat Michigan, couldn't beat Oregon.
Now he can't be Notre Dame. It's like, well, maybe
one day in the semi finals, we'll get to play Iowa.
Maybe we'll get to play Wisconsin. Maybe we'll get to
play Nebraska. No, probably not. You're gonna have to play Georgia.
You're gonna have to play Notre Dame. You're gonna have

(21:03):
to play LSU or Alabama. You're gonna have to play Texas.
You're gonna have to play Oregon. You know, you're gonna
have to play whoever is some elite team. That's who
you're gonna to truly make a run in these playoffs.
You might be able to get an easier matchup in
the first round. And that's what we've been saying forever
about Penn State. Over the last like ten years. The
BCS or whatever, it has been was like nine that

(21:25):
they would have made six or seven of the playoffs.
Well cool, and depending on your matchup, you probably would
have been won and done in most of them. And
if you would have got an easier matchup, you might
have won, and then when you played a better team
you would have lost. And the one thing I'd say
for Penn State is like, I know you recruit really well,
but you are losing some really really elite players. So

(21:49):
your opportunity to cause if you're James Franklin, just like
Marcus Freeman, you won this game, You're in the national Championship.
Even if you lose, everyone's off your back. You've won
three playoff games. Now you lose Abdual car who if
his arm checks out, I would say at worst is
going third and has a chance to go first or second.
You got Tyler Warren, who I would say the latest

(22:10):
he goes is like the mid teams. It wouldn't shock
me if you went like somewhere eight to twelve range.
So you got two guys that are gonna go in
the top twelve. Singleton probably be a starters for someone
next year. Definitely play a lot depending on the team
and clearly, you've got a lot of other guys that
are GONNAT drafted the mid rounds. That is your team

(22:31):
gonna be better next year? I don't know. I don't know.
And with Tyler Warren gone, you're gonna depend more on
Allar to like throw it to the wide receivers. I
saw him attempt that tonight and it didn't go that well. Now,
part of it is, you know what's weird about Penn State,
Like I understand Notre Dame not having the best wide

(22:52):
receivers in the country. It's hard. Stanford never did in
their heyday either. Why it's hard to academic requirements, It's
just it's difficult. It's a position that you're gonna struggle
to get into school. And it's reflective of their best teams,
not saying that they can't get an NFL guy or two,
but they're never gonna have Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase
rolling out in their wide receiver room. But like Penn State,

(23:16):
what's your excuse? How do you not have like your
best wide receiver, even if he's not a Jeremiah Smith.
It's like, yeah, this guy's gonna go in the second
or third round. Where's that guy? How does that not exist?
And I think that really hurt him the night or
just even this season is their wide receiver room was like, eh,

(23:37):
could be a little better, which is crazy because they
have the best tight end in the country and their
running game and clearly their offensive line is awesome. I
haven't I haven't placed a bet in a while, and
I just I needed I needed to get my heart
going and I needed a little rush. And it was
cool until you lose, and then you're like, yeah, that

(23:58):
wasn't that cool. Marie's like, why are you screaming in
the other room. I'm like, oh, yeah, I got got
a little money on this game. It's not it's going well.
And then it's not going well, and then you just
want to kick down the fucking door. NFL Playoffs. We're

(24:19):
talking about the NFL playoffs. You bet we are get
in on the action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports
betting partner of the NFL. Scoring touchdowns is a key
to winning in the NFL playoffs, and the key to
you scoring big is betting on them at DraftKings, the
number one place to bet touchdowns. Ready to place your

(24:42):
first bet? Try betting on something as simple like a
player to score a touchdown. Go to DraftKings Sportsbook app
and make your pick. Here's another reason to watch your
favorite players crush it in the playoffs. New customers bet
five bucks to get two hundred in bonus bets instantly
score during the NFL playoffs with the Draftking sportsbook down

(25:03):
in the Draftking Sportsbook app, use the code jawn Jogen
that's co jawn for new customers to get two hundred
in bonus bets instantly when you bet just five bucks
only a Draftking sportsbook. The Crown is yours.

Speaker 3 (25:15):
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in New York
called eight seven seven eight ope and wy or text
hope and why four six seven three six nine In Connecticut.
Help is available for a problem gambling called eight eight
eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visits
CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill
Casino when resorting Kansas twenty one on over agent eligibility
varies by jurisdiction, Void and Ontario. Bonus bets expire one

(25:37):
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuins. Four Additional terms
and responsible gaming resources see DKNNG dot Co slash Audio.

Speaker 2 (25:51):
Okay, coming down the home stretch here, wild Card weekend,
which is which is pretty tasty though we have to
massive lines. But back at it again with my main man,
Stucky from the Action Network. All these lines are presented
by DraftKings. This season was kind of taiale of the

(26:13):
dominant teams and the really really shitty teams. I mean,
the forty nine Ers went six and eleven and they're
not even in the top ten. I mean, the bottom
of the NFL was pretty putrid, and clearly the top
of the NFL Lions, Chiefs. I mean I looked before
we dive into game by game, the odds to win
the Super Bowl. To me after that Vikings game, and

(26:36):
I know you don't want to overreact to one game,
but now that they're gonna have to go on the road,
I think there are five teams that can win it,
clearly the Lions and the Chiefs. You know, basically the
Lions are basically three to one, Chiefs three and a
half to one, Ravens plus five to fifty, Bills six
to one, Philly seven to one. Like to me, those
are the only five teams that can win the Super Bowl.

(26:57):
What say you?

Speaker 1 (26:58):
Yeah, I agree. The Packers would be interesting to me
if they faded down the stretch and then no Christian
Watson knows Jay or Alexander, it kind of limits what
they can do. From an upside perspective, I think that
Detroit defense is still really vulnerable, especially if they play
like a mobile quarterback who doesn't see ghosts like Sam

(27:21):
Darnold did. I think they're eventually going to get picked
off their defense, but with their offense home field advantage,
they're certainly in the mix. Philly is as well. Their
defense is real. They obviously have all the pieces on offense.
Really just comes down to Hurts not holding the ball
too long. But I think they can go into Detroit

(27:43):
and win, and yeah, in the AFC if the Chalk
holds this weekend, would I assume will be next Sunday night,
the final game in divisional round Bill's Ravens will be
an awesome game, and the winner of that versus the
Chiefs presumably will be an awesome AFC championship game. So yeah,

(28:10):
I think he got the five right.

Speaker 2 (28:12):
The Bucks, any you know, could get a little frisky.
Obviously you play Washington, but then the second game would
more than likely be Philly. Is that a good matchup?
I know, I saw Winfields practicing this week, clearly offensively
when they get going, and I saw Baker said, you know,
the biggest difference this year than the last year. Obviously
last year the passing game was unreal. They get they're

(28:34):
pretty multi dimensional. I mean Bucky Irving talk about this
is the reason why you don't draft running backs in
the first round. I mean you get high end players
in the third and fourth round. So I to me,
they're a team. I mean, they won a playoff game
last year. I know they were playing the wounded Eagles,
but then they went toe to toe with the Lions.
Like they have a lot of guys on their team
that shit, have played in a lot of big games

(28:56):
for the last four or five years.

Speaker 1 (28:58):
Yeah, they could be firsh It's hard for me to
see them going, you know, beating Washington in Philly, then
Detroit on the road, and then beating the AFC team.

Speaker 2 (29:08):
But they certainly, yeah, not necessarily, not necessarily a Super
Bowl run, but I could see them throwing a wrench
in things. I mean, shit, they almost did last year.

Speaker 1 (29:17):
Yeah, no, for sure, they're they're They're not going to
be an easy out for anybody. I mean, they went
they beat Philly. I know Philly didn't have you know,
Brown or Smith's starting, or a couple offensive linemen they
were earlier this season. They went to Detroit and won also,
which isn't easy to do. Although they were out gained
by two hundred yards. Detroit just couldn't score in the
red zone. But they won't be an easy out. I

(29:38):
do like them this weekend against Washington. Daniels has had
an amazing year, but still a rookie quarterback making his
first playoff start on the road. Historically that has not
gone well. And if you look quarterbacks making their first
playoffs start against quarterbacks who have playoff experience historically, thirty
three percent straight up, thirty three percent against the spread.

(30:02):
Numbers are not great. That also applies to Sam Donald
against Stafford. But I think this Washington team is pretty overrated.
I mean, you look what they did down the stretch.
I mean, yeah, they won twelve games. Daniel was great,
but they won. The only playoff team they beat all
year was Philly, who was about to blow them out
of the water before Hurts got hurt and then Kenny

(30:24):
Pickett came in and then they came back. That's the
only playoff team they won all year. They have the
lowest strength of schedule in the entire conference, and look
at their past four victories. They beat the Saints with
Spencer Rattler by one. They beat the Eagles because hurt
Scott hurt, so they beat Kenny Pickett on the last
play of the game. They beat the Falcons with a

(30:45):
rookie quarterback making his first start in overtime on the
last play of the game. And then they beat for
the seed. They beat Trey Lance, and they needed Mariota
to come in to really do that. They were down
big in that game. This is a team they won
six games games on the final play of the game
on the final play this season, and you go back
to the Hail Mary against the Bears. So they were

(31:07):
really fortunate all years. It's gonna be a tough ask,
especially that Tampa secondary is healthier. Their run Dee's been good.
Todd Bowles will probably dial up some blitzes to get
the Daniels create some sacks, some negative plays. I'm not
a believer in that Washington defense. They're definitely ahead of
schedule with Daniels, for sure, Washington fans have to be excited.

(31:27):
But I like Tampa, which I'm surprised that game is
actually not on Monday night, but usually you get the
Texans in the Saturday after early afternoon slate. The Bucks
is your Monday night special. But I like the Bucks
and Baker to get it done. Lang three at home.

Speaker 2 (31:47):
Yeah, I totally agree with you there. I mean, that's
I think that's got a chance to be maybe one
of the worst games of the weekend. And I'm with
you on Washington. To me, they had more of a
feel like two years ago that Giants team. It's like,
how the hell did they do it? But if I
remember correctly, I think that Giants team went nine to eight.
I mean, this team won twelve games, So it's like,

(32:07):
I think they could be much better next year, another draft,
free agent money and win like ten.

Speaker 1 (32:14):
You know, yeah, you get like they need they have
some holes on d they need to plug, and then
Daniels could really use like another bona fide weapon which
would go a long way in boosting that offense. Maybe
bring in like another veteran offensive lineman. But you look,
it's like ERT's has done a ton it. I mean,

(32:35):
Earth's is He's ancient at this point. It's basically just
McLaurin is like the receiver that you're worried about on
that team. So it's amazing what they've done with the
amount of talent that they actually have on the roster.
So yeah, another draft, a couple free agent additions to
plug some holes, and Washington's definitely going to be an

(32:55):
exciting team because you're this ahead of schedule and what
do you have? Quarterback on a rookie contract always a
major advantage when that rookie is good.

Speaker 2 (33:06):
Like I bet if they could if Dan and Peters
who worked there at the time when the trade was made,
But I think they would like to have Sweat, Like
I think they would have just liked to pay him
if they would have had control at the time, they
just would have given him like ninety million dollars and
had him on this team, because that's what they they're missing.
It's like a really good Now I'd have to like

(33:26):
really break down and text around to see how Sweat
start to finish was this year, But obviously relative to
what they have, he's really good. Okay, let's last year
there was so much momentum, and everyone was picking the Browns.
It was like the Browns, the Browns, the Browns, and
the Texans are in scholarship in this spot, they make
the playoffs, they get this spot. So we knew this

(33:48):
was coming a month ago playing the Chargers and I
saw a stat that since twenty eleven Jim Harboughs first
year in San Francisco, over the next fifteen years or whatever,
he has more player victories than Mike Tomlin. And obviously
he left for like eight years to Michigan. So this
guy's success in the playoffs in the NFL. He hit

(34:08):
the ground running with the forty nine Ers, and honestly,
that first year people probably don't remember this, but they
played Eli Manning, who went on to win a second
Super Bowl. Kyle Williams, the GM's kid for the White
Sox at the time, like muffed a punt. I mean,
the forty nine Ers probably should have won that game.
And Alex Smith I think was like one to fifteen

(34:30):
or something on third downs and it was I don't
think it went to overtime, but it came down to
the final seconds and it was just he is a
great playoff coach. I mean, he's comfortable playing in these
games because he plays him normally during the regular season,
like just tight contested defensive battles. But I feel like everyone,

(34:50):
you know, you talk about like road playoff games. You know,
now Flacco is not as good as Herbert, but going
on the road is just Now. The Texans aren't exactly
like Buffalo, you know, or Philly or something. But still,
I mean, it's it's difficult. This team has playoff experience,
and I think everyone goes, well, the Texans suck, and yeah,
relative to the hype, they're not as good. But I

(35:12):
kind of like the Texans and the points in this play.
I don't necessarily think they win, but if it's a
low scoring game, couldn't you see the Chargers win them,
like a game winning field goal like nineteen to seventeen
or something.

Speaker 1 (35:23):
Got to take the points here. Completely agree with you.
I mean I project this like a coin flip. This
is this line is crazy, Like this is assuming we're
assuming now that the Charters are like over four points
better than the Texans. The Texans seene that was just
plus three and a half in Kansas City a couple
of weeks ago. I know that they had a couple
of defensive injuries. Tank Dell got hurt. But this line

(35:43):
is crazy. Give me the three points all day, especially
with a total, like you said, a total of a
low total. It's like points are going to be at
a premium. Historically, this is a favorite year in the
NFL in the regular season. We'll see how it plays
out in playoffs. Historically, Wildcar Weekend is a dog weekend.
Just you go back, just to twenty seventeen dogs fifty
two and thirty four against the spread overall, twenty four

(36:05):
and twelve, sixty seven percent in the wildcard round ten
three and two home underdogs past ten years.

Speaker 2 (36:13):
So yeah, I mean that was Look look at last
year the Bucks, the Packers, I mean, were the Texans
an underdog to the Browns in that Wildcar Weekend? Or
were they favored? Maybe it was pickhim or something, but it.

Speaker 1 (36:26):
Was, Yeah, it was.

Speaker 2 (36:27):
It was felt like there's a lot of Browns love.

Speaker 1 (36:29):
There was a ton of Browns love. And here's the thing, like, yeah, yes,
I'm worried about the Texans. The Texans early down offense
was troublesome all year. They had a their point differential
was zero. They were thirty first and success right on
early downs. They're more likely to turn it over than Herbert,
who never throws picks. The Charters have two really good
offensive tackles to kind of neutralize that Texans pass rush.

(36:53):
They're blitz Chargers, They're blitz under Mintter has been really
good when they use it. Texans struggle with their offensive
line to pick up Blitz's. But again, this number is
way too high, and this Texans d is still elite.
It's still a really, really really good defense. And I
just think this line is outrageous. And like you said,

(37:14):
and by the way, the Charters they're they're good, but
they're not like one of the elite teams. And here's
where they beat on the road this year Carolina Denver, who,
by the way, Denver is the only playoff team the
Chargers beat the entire season. Carolina, Denver, Cleveland, New England, Vegas,
and Atlanta, only one playoff team. And Atlanta, again they

(37:37):
were dominated and Kirk Kirk Cousins was just throwing.

Speaker 2 (37:40):
The ball to them through four picks.

Speaker 1 (37:42):
Yeah, through four picks, and they still almost won the game.
One was a pick six, So that that's it. That's
what they've done on the road. The Chargers are the
lowest strength of victory in the entire playoffs. So, and
like you said, the Texans. Now, it's really funny to
see this in the NFL. Well did everyone is talking

(38:03):
about the Texans like they're the Broncos or the Steelers right,
like they're ten point nine eight, ten point underd dollars,
they have no chance and this people already talk about
charges of the Chiefs. I look at all my mentions,
the charge is gonna be the Chiefs this weekend. Well
as if they don't have to go on the road
and be a team with a really good defense and
still a really good quarterback in Stroud. I think Mixon

(38:24):
will be able to find some holes here running the ball.
You have Nico Collins. Stroud's gonna see a lot of
zone here. That's generally speaking, what he excels against. Like,
so the Texans could come in here loose house money,
play the disrespect card all week everyone's writing us off.
So yeah, I think you got to take the three here.

(38:45):
There should be a lower scoring game two points at
a premium.

Speaker 2 (38:48):
And the Texans O line issues are up the center
of the middle of the field, where the Chargers dominant
pass rush is the Edges. I mean, Khalil Mack has
kind of resurrected his career and her really looks fantastic.
But he's not Chris Joe. I mean, he's lining up
over tackles. So that is if you told me that
they had, you know, some elite If Aaron Donald was
on the Chargers, I'd be like, yeah, I Stroud might

(39:11):
get sacked ten times, but that's not necessarily the case here.
So I'm glad we think alike. This next game almost
feels too easy because the Steelers look like shit, like
there's no dispute, Like they have looked terrible defensive holes everywhere,
even in the game that was you know, in theory
was closed last week. They were down nineteen to seven

(39:33):
going into the fourth quarter. George Pickens, you take enough
of these flyers on these red flag wide receivers. Yeah,
you hit some Hall of famers like Antonio Brown and
then you get some of this. He thinks he's Antonio Brown.
He sure doesn't play like it. And let's face it,
it got cold and Russell Wilson has not looked the same.
But part of the reason this team dominated is like
it felt like the first couple of months, their defense

(39:54):
was awesome, and now you got guys wide open. They
have good defensive linemen, but I don't us anyone else
and that the mojo and even TJ. Watt. They interviewed
him right before that Bengal game. He's like they were
already in and he said it was right. He's like,
we need to get some momentum, right, we need to
get going. And then immediately they're down and they lose.

(40:16):
You know, and the Ravens last week, we're kind of
in a tough spot because they needed to win, so
they're playing their guys and then say Flowers gets hurt
on that sucks, because shit, he's become good. But man,
I mean, I just I get this rivalry and all
this stuff, but you get one team. These teams are

(40:37):
trending in completely different areas, and it does feel like
there's an implosion factor for the Steelers this back to
back years. Ducky, I mean, you know this, but they
have been enormous underdogs in the first round, not against
the back to back champion, the Chiefs, the next tier
of the two teams, the Bills in the Ravens. So
if I'm a Steeler fan, I'm like, well, clearly the

(40:58):
Chiefs are in a different universe than us, But that
next two teams that are clearly two of the best
teams in the league that just can't beat the Chiefs,
We're not even in their world anymore. So it's like,
what the fuck are we doing? I like the Raves,
if you told me this, the final score is like,
I don't know, twenty seven to ten or something like.

(41:19):
That's that's what it kind of feels like. It may
be close, you know, for like twenty minutes a game time,
and then you just watch it You're like, I don't
know if that was actually close.

Speaker 1 (41:28):
Yeah, Steelers fans have to be like if they get
blown out here, Like I think Tomlin's a really good coach,
like one of the best row I like motivators in
the game, but like, is it time in the Steelers organization.
They're really loyal to him, and.

Speaker 2 (41:42):
I've been saying that the trade them to the Bears
recent franchise.

Speaker 1 (41:46):
This is like sometimes it's just time for a new voice.
But if they don't, they don't win this game, they'll
be Owen six straight up and Owen six against the
Spreading their last six playoff games, and it's been a
very long time since they won a playoff game. And
their seasons all go it's like a script. They all
go the same way. It's like hots like of late

(42:06):
hots start fade down the stretch, lose the playoff game.
Like that gets tiring. Ah, you know, everything inside me
says that this game will just weirdly be close, just
because every Raven Steelers game, I should say everyone, but
like eighty ninety percent of them and the Harball Tomlin
Air are just always close and low scoring. I kind
of like the under here as well. Everything on the field,

(42:27):
as you alluded to, says that Ravens win easily. The
markets kind of hinting at that too, but like the
Ravens were just seven and a half point favorites at
home a couple of weeks ago. They did end up covering,
but the Steelers were without two starting defensive backs. Joey
Porter gets hurt early in that game. Ogan Joby was out,
Pickens was out. Like they were decimated by injuries in

(42:49):
that game. They're gonna be healthier here at least end
There's no Day Flowers, which is massive. I mean, now
you're starting wide receivers or Bateman, Aguilar and Tylan Wallace.
You're gonna miss You're really gonna miss Flowers and just.

Speaker 2 (43:04):
I will say this, Bateman's look good this year.

Speaker 1 (43:06):
He has, but he also is benefiting from the waves
of Flowers. So you know, the Ravens would probably go
with more two tight end sets. Here. You still have Henry,
you still have Lamar Jackson. But the biggest thing with
the Ravens is that their offense has been historically dominant
all year, and by the way, they have the hardest schedule.
They faced the hardest schedule opposing defenses in the entire league,

(43:29):
and they have a top ten regular season offensive all
time by some metrics this year. The thing that has
really made the Ravens dangerous and will make them dangerous
in the playoffs is that they fix their defense. First
ten weeks of the year twenty fifth and scoring twenty seventh,
then yards allowed. Since week eleven, they are number one
in the league in almost every defensive category. What happened

(43:52):
in week eleven. They made a switch at safety. They
took Kyle Hamilton, put them back at safety. They put
our Darius Washington in at safety. They got rid of
Marcus Williams, get rid of their veterans who were just washed,
inserted Humphrey into the slot more basically, full time changed
how they communicate the defense. Call simplified their scheme a
bit as well. Call goes into roquwand roquwand communicates to

(44:16):
Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton make sure everyone is set and needs
to be where they need to be, and everything has
been like a smooth operation. Now they've been number one
in the league. I got since that since week eleven
first and scoring first, in the yards first, and passing
defense first, and yards per play allowed first and epa
per play. Now they have faced them underwhelming offenses. They

(44:37):
place the Giants, the Browns and even you know, the
Steelers twice the Texans, and neither those teams are firing
on all cylinders. But they also face the Chargers and
the Eagles, and five of those seven teams are in
the playoffs. At least it has been boosted a little
bit by who they've played, but there's no doubt that
the defense is you know, has gone from a bottom
feed er to one of the best in the league.

(44:58):
They've always been good against the all year, but now
they've fixed the issues in the secondary simplified the scheme,
and that defense now is playing at a championship level.
So that's what makes them dangerous. And we'll say this
line is hitting ten nine and a half. Ten double
digit favorites in the NFL are usually good bets in

(45:20):
the playoffs thirteen and five against the spread since twenty ten,
seventeen and one straight up. There's usually a reason why
an NFL playoff team would be a double digit favorite
against another. I just I can't lay. I can't lay ten.
But I wouldn't blame anyone taking the Ravens. Everything you've
seen on the field over the past month, the Ravens

(45:41):
defensive improvement, and just do you what Picking shows up too?
Does he like just just decide he doesn't get a
couple of balls early and then he just is done
for the day, Because that's basically there. They're only avenue
for offense. Tom is gonna they're gonna be fired up
for this game. They're gonna try to ugly it up.

(46:01):
But I kind of like the under. I really do
believe in the Ravens defensive improvement. I do think that
they'll miss Flowers. Steelers defense will be healthier this time around.
They didn't have Porter against the Ravens in that second meeting.
They lost him. They were already on their other corner
down in safety. They can't they couldn't just run what
they want to run. So I think this will be
a lower scoring game. I don't have a real true
feel on the side, but I wouldn't blame anyone for

(46:23):
taking the Ravens.

Speaker 2 (46:24):
Kay. You mentioned rookie quarterbacks on the road, you know,
making their first obviously playoffs start. It's challenging no matter what.
Let alone going to Buffalo, which has got to be
on the short list not just of home field advantages,
but I mean a pretty special place come January. It's
tough for both. I mean, listen, he's battled this season.

(46:48):
He's probably just in terms of improvement from start to
finish of the year. It's pretty remarkable what Sean Payton
has done. Now, the Bills, you know, they're not for
Sean Payton team. They're really more of a defensive team.
I know they just scored one hundred points against the
Chiefs practice squad, but I mean they hang their hat
on defense and pass rush. But this does feel like

(47:08):
a spot do we look up and like bow Knicks
from several picks. You know, it's one of those things
that just unravels and go on to have a fantastic
career when we look back, like remember Bo Nicks's first
playoff start against you know, who knows? Maybe the Super
Bowl champion Buffalo Bills on the road feels like a big,
big challenge, And I think we'd all agree, and I'd

(47:31):
say the same for the Chargers. Incredible season for Harbaugh
Sean Baiden, right, I mean both their win totals were
like five and six or something. I mean the Chargers
won five games last year. Everyone, and I know I'm
guilty of this thought the Broncos were gonna suck. Now
part of it, yeah, but part of it is last year. Now,
granted they got better as the season went on. You

(47:53):
score seventy points in a game against you, like, I
don't view your defense as great, and then they turns
out their defense was just elite and Benito turned into
like Lawrence Taylor. But I feel I would feel stronger
if you told me I had to make the biggest
bet of my life, who would cover the Bills or
the Ravens. I hear what you said, and just be like, well,

(48:13):
Bill's Ray or I mean raven Steelers could see divisional matchup.
Maybe it is tight, this is a game. I would
be stunned if the Broncos cover the spread. I like
the Bills, and this is a big number, it's playoffs.
But rookie quarterback, I don't know. I like the Bills
here might say to half, Yeah, it's.

Speaker 1 (48:33):
In a way, the Broncos have the path to cover
as a dog of over a touchdown in that they
have a really good defense, they have a really good
offensive line, and they have a really good coach who
has thrived as an underdog throughout his career. Those three
things good coach, good offensive line, elite defense, we'll get

(48:55):
you a long way as far as just like covering
spreads of over in the NFL. And and just if
you look at these if you just look at the
metrics of these two teams, you have elite Bills offense
versus elite Broncos defense. I will call it average Broncos
offense versus if you adjust for opponent, it's an average

(49:17):
ish Bill's defense. But the biggest difference by far, which
probably will end up deciding this game. It's the quarterbacks,
Bonnicks said, an amazing season. He's improved on a weekly basis.

Speaker 2 (49:30):
I didn't realize he threw for twenty nine touchdowns just
looking at us stats.

Speaker 1 (49:34):
Yeah, pretty wild. And but the Broncos have you know,
I mean, how many playoff teams if the Broncos beat
if you don't count the Chiefs, who's said other stars one?
I think the Bucks?

Speaker 2 (49:46):
That was it, And we don't count the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (49:49):
Yeah, we're not fan in that game, but they but
they arguably they should have beat the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (49:54):
And to be fair, they match up well against Chiefs,
right because they can rush the pass or the Chiefs
offense one it's a little iffy.

Speaker 1 (49:59):
Yeah, So that's just the biggest difference. Is you a
rookie quarterback making his first start, he's more likely to
just make a couple critical mistakes. Rookie quarterbacks against McDermott's
defenses zone heavy, want to take away the exposive play,
make you drive down the field and then hope that
you eventually make a mistake or they get a negative play.

(50:20):
Rookie quarterbacks against mcdermot's sven touchdown seventeen interceptions historically, So
that's probably what happens in this game is You're not
gonna be able to completely shut down Allen. He's gonna
make plays. He's gonna make plays of his legs and
his arm, and Nicks probably makes a couple catastrophic mistakes,
as rookies tend to do in their first playoff start,
especially on the road. I did play some under here

(50:43):
as well. Under forty seven. Historically, totals of forty seven
or more on Wildcard weekend outdoors have been a very,
very good bet. I do think the Broncos defense can
hold its own here, and I think, look, the Bills
aren't going to give up any exposive plays. I think
Peyton knows that he's got to just keep this close

(51:03):
as long as he can. And I do think that
they'll have some success. Like just Peyton's scheming ups things.
It's gonna be just very methodical and that's gonna keep
the clock moving. But he's gonna play conservative play field position,
not not gonna be taken too many risks early. Now,
eventually they get down you're gonna have to, which is

(51:24):
when it could get out of hand. But I think
this total is a bit too high because I don't
see the Broncos offense going off. I think their defense
will hold its own, and I think Peyton will call
this game close to the best, and Nixon that offense
can do enough to just keep Drives alive, like you
don't want them failing miserably, and then they're just punting

(51:44):
three and out punt punt, and then they get way
behind and they have to come out and chuck, which
is then the game could get out of hand. So
I like some under there as well, but this game, yeah,
I mean, it just comes down to it's Josh Allen
versus a rookie quarterback on the road in their first
Plaouf star. It's probably the difference.

Speaker 2 (52:16):
You know, we haven't talked about this yet, but if
you'd had to do pressure rankings, I would put Sean
McDermott on the I would put Sean McDermott, Sirianni and Lamar.
I mean, you could you could convince me of any
different order of that group, but I would say, you know,
Sean McDermott in one of these games, if they're down,

(52:39):
I could just see it getting a little tight, you know.
I Mean there's just a lot of pressure on him,
probably as the MVP. Of the league regardless. You know,
Lamar has had the best season of his career. But
like clearly, you know, John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott have
two of the greatest quarterbacks we've seen, like not only

(52:59):
of their era, but like in my life, just pure
talents and the different last year the Ravens were in
the AFC Championship game. Now you lose the Chiefs sometimes
like losing to Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods, tip your hat,
but like you got the Bills to me, at minimum
for this season to be a success, have to win
these next two games. And like, like you said, the
Broncos have a guy that's i mean getting paid eighteen

(53:22):
million dollars for reason. He's he was one of the
best coaches in the league, and I think this year
was a pretty big muscle flex for him. So it's
like this is a tough little matchup from a coaching perspective,
advanced Joseph in the defense is like this, maybe I'm underestimating,
Like I like the Bills because of the road advantage,
but from just a pure coaching advantage, like Denver's really
well coached, you know, and then that really really matters

(53:46):
in the playoffs. It's why like the Chargers Dexans game,
like I think Demko's really good, right, I don't. It's
not this isn't Jim Harbaugh against some guys, like how
did he make the playoffs? You know, just because he
won some shitty division Like that's a that's a good
coaching matchup. And so is this Bill You know to
me that the Bills Bronco game is just just a
lot in the line with a lot of guys. Now

(54:06):
this you know, listen, Joe Brady's been a stud too,
and it's like that's the Philly thing. Like, so you know, Sirianni,
I would say, at minimum, right, you just got to
win these next two games. You lose on the road
in the NFC Championship game, people, you know, depending on
how it looks, would be mad. But it's like, listen,

(54:26):
you go back to the NFC Championship game, you lose
the Lions, like it's been a successful season, but this game,
could this game be a little trickier that everyone thinks,
like everyone's off the Packers now, Jordan Love's been banged up.
Christian Watson towards ACL he honestly wasn't even that productive
this season was banged up defensively. Is it safe to

(54:47):
say Jeff Hafley upgrade over Joe Berry? Have they been
better this season? And like this Packer team and you know,
this gets back to like the Sean Payton thing, like
google the Floor's resume and I know he's had Rogers,
but even last year with le Jordan Love, like he's
won playoff games. This is not like fresh bright lights,
like I'm overwhelmed here, Like they went into Dallas last

(55:08):
year a twelve win team and beat the shit out
of them. So it's like this is not a team
and a group of guys. It's all their core guys.
And Josh Jacobs is like you know, from Alabama and
he played on that team a couple of years ago
with Derek Carr that made the playoffs at the end,
like they've been in big games. I just I like Philly.
I mean, obviously their roster I think you could argue

(55:29):
is given his health is if Jalen's healthy, is the
best in the NFL top to bottom. But this is
this is not like an easy first round matchup for
being a two seven.

Speaker 1 (55:39):
Yeah you you mentioned it with the with coaches, Uh,
can't trust out enough how important coaches and coordinators are
in the playoffs. It like I can talk, I can
sit here and talk about, Okay, this is what this
team does, this is there, these are these Tennessees. This
is how much this team runs zone man blah blah.
But this this is the time that you switch that

(56:01):
up right and you have curve balls and you come
out with it the high leverage games and that's that's
where you can see these types of things where the
coaches can make all the difference. And then those high
leverage decisions on fourth downs and your your script in
the beginning of games. All those things magnifies of coaching
is just absolutely massive. And the floor I think is

(56:23):
one of the best, been very very one of the best.
Is an underdog too against the spread, for what it's worth,
I've played the Packers first half plus three. I think
the line is too high. In general, I looked the
Eagles defense is legit. Like since week after they're by
they put Cooper Degena in the starting lineup. They're both
of their rookie cornerbacks have been outstading. That was the

(56:43):
biggest stut weakness last year. Their linebacker room was a
weakness last year. Zach Baum came over from the Saints.
He's been great, and Fangio has been obviously a massive
upgrade a defensive coordinator. They have all the pieces on offense.
Hurts does still hold onto the ball too long, which
leads to like he has the highest rate of dropbacks
that lead to sacks, throwaways, or scrambles in the league

(57:05):
at twenty five percent. So he does still just hold
it a bit too long. That's like kind of what
holds their passing offense back a bit. And they faced
the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the league. Packers
faced a much harder schedule, played in a much tougher
division overall as well. But the reason I like first
half on the Packers plus three at show value in

(57:26):
the number. But I think number one the four is
gonna have a good script. Number two Hurts could come
out a little rusty. You know, he hasn't played in
a while. There's also data out there that suggests there
is in production in your first game back from concussion.
Now it's been a while, but maybe that's not its magnified.
But we still don't have a ton of data.

Speaker 2 (57:46):
Do you think they were screwed with people like did
he was he could have been cleared weeks ago or
they have They've just been like is it just a
league mandate? From my understanding is like you clear it
when you clear it, Like he wouldn't have played last
week anyway, so why would they even care? That to
me is a little concerning that, like he was in
the protocol. It's one thing, maybe you miss a game

(58:07):
and clear at the next Monday or Tuesday, but like
this carried on for like weeks.

Speaker 1 (58:12):
I agree, Yeah, it is more it seems that, I mean,
he's gonna play, but it seems like is there gonna
be a residual effect and just general rust right now?
Playing for twenty days, you know, you see that in
Week one with quarterbacks after they don't play in the
preseason so early on that could be a problem. And
then just in general, the Eagles all year were slow starters.

(58:33):
This is the team. They averaged three point six points
in the first quarter. That's twenty first in the NFL,
twelve point four in the first half, it's right around average.
Packers are six point four in the first quarter, thirteen
point six in the first half, that's fourth and sixth.
So Packers very good first half offense, Eagles not. You
just take the first two drives of first two drives

(58:54):
of the all for the offense of the Eagles all year,
they're a bottom three offense terms of EPA from the
third drive on top three offense. So they just did
this script is not working. They there's something they haven't
been able to figure out. And these are two very
run heavy teams, two of the I think in neutral

(59:15):
game states the d two heaviest run offenses in the NFL.
What does that mean, especially like in the in the
first half, fewer possessions, so there might not be that
many such So if the Eagles start slow a couple
of possessions, Packers have a good script. Hurts a little rusty.
I want that plus three in my pocket. And yeah,

(59:36):
I am a bit worried about the green Bay defense.

Speaker 2 (59:39):
Starts slow sometimes too, though, I feel like Minnesota game,
the Detroit game, and then then Jordan gets going in
the second half. Yeah, if the Eagles start slow too,
maybe it's just ten to seven and a half, you know.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
Yeah, yeah, and that that happened last year too as well.
But I trust to the floor script in this spot
the pa where they miss Watson. If you look with
and without Watson on the field, their explosive play rate
goes way down in the passing game, and the running
games impacted a little bit too, because he just stretches
the field. They need read to step up and not

(01:00:12):
have drops and need duves to step up. And but
they're gonna play zone here on defense. A lot of
zone hurts his better versus man. I think that they
can get him maybe for a turnover too, especially if
he's just a little off early on. And yeah, alex no,
Alexander worries me if you look at that they're splits

(01:00:32):
just against receivers with him without him, and he's been
hurt for a lot of the year, but with him
on the field when he's healthy, like, they have a
bona fide top corner, which they just do not have
right now, which is scary going up against Smith and
Brown when you already have to worry about Barkley. So
I worry about just if the dam breaks, and then

(01:00:55):
the Eagles are such good front runners. If they get
a lead, they can go on like an eight touchdown
drive and then just just suck you suck the soul
out of the other team with the trush pushes and
then it's just like a nine minute touchdown drive and
then it's lights out. But I don't mind the Packers here.
I think this will be a really good game. I
don't mind taking the points I took some first half

(01:01:16):
plus three.

Speaker 2 (01:01:17):
I think the way someone beats Philly in the next
three rounds and the way that they don't, you know,
win the NFC is you get up on them and
they got a crack, yeah, and then just force them
to crack because, like you said, they get a lead.
They are the best front running team because they got
so much talent and they're so explosive, and then they
start vibing.

Speaker 1 (01:01:37):
They only have to get nine yards for a first down.

Speaker 2 (01:01:40):
You get like fourteen to three, especially in these either
this week or next week at the link, and they
start booing and fucking aj Brown start sight eyeing people
and Sirianni and it just can get weird. It's to me,
they have the most weird potential if they get down
in a spot, like even the Bills, if they got down.
I've watched the Bills get down a lot of games.

(01:02:02):
I think Sean's mellowed a little bit and clearly like
he's not as insecure about the whole situation, like he's
the boss. I think the people looking like, what's Sirianna
even doing on the sideline, so I hear you there,
and uh, you know the one thing with Lafloor, I
think we saw it last week with Kevin O'Connell and
honestly this all year, he treats Sam Darnold like he's

(01:02:23):
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen just fling flingtt Flingant McVeigh like
they're Shanahan guys. I mean, Kevin O'Connell technically isn't, but
like they're all under that tree. Lafleur is the closest
to Kyle of like, I'll run it forty times if
it's working, like I'm a run game guy. That's how
we got Rogers rolling again, Like Aaron, get back under center.
Let's just control the game and then the passing game

(01:02:44):
comes from there. And I you know, he was with
Kyle for so long and that that shit works in
the playoffs, especially as a dog, you know, because you
can control the game where you just saw like, hey, Kevin,
run the ball, get something easy for Sam. I bet
Lafleur and Kyle We're watching that, like, why are you
force feeding these passes when you're guys off a little bit.
It's like the Houston Rockets when they just kept shooting

(01:03:06):
threes against the Warriors, Like just get a layup, you know, espe.

Speaker 1 (01:03:10):
Like inside the ten you weren't even trying to run.

Speaker 2 (01:03:13):
I know, but you're wired. I having worked for Andy Reid,
who is like, you know, the steroid version of those guys.
You're wired. Like you're wired and like your true colors,
you're a pass guy or a run game guy, and
like that's when all fails, you lean one way or
the other, and it's why. So I'm with you. I
think this game is going to be very, very interesting.
I'm staying away. I just think that I'm with you.

(01:03:36):
Though that number feels a little big. Though it wouldn't
shock me if the Eagles win by like fifteen. I
think this We talked about the Washington Bucks game. I'm
going rams now. Obviously there's this curveball in the world
of these fires that are just raging, that are impacting everything,
and they might have to play the game in Glendale,
and it just uproots a little bit of their just

(01:03:59):
not just home field advantage, but who knows, maybe guys
have had to evacuate some homes or people they know,
or maybe their girlfriend. Who knows. It's just it's it's
not an ideal situation. But I think you saw that.
You know, listen, I'm pro Sam Darnold. It can't really
be argued what we witnessed, but that first half, like
he's airmailing. He airmailed eight passes and he started like

(01:04:24):
there were a lot of clips going around, like guys
were open. He did the seeing ghosts again. He struggled
to pull the trigger and it just unraveled with the
Rams get after him a little bit. I mean, that's
what I'm saying. So, and we taught coaching, coaching, coaching coaching, Listen,
Kevin easy guy to like, media loves him, like Google

(01:04:45):
how many big games the guy's won in his life?
You know? I mean this is like I think we
just look at him like an equal to all these cats,
like zero career playoff wins last time I checked. So
and now he's a road dog against Sean McVeigh road favorite.
Excuse me, Like, I just think people are underestimate. Now listen,
the Rams have not looked good when they were playing guys,

(01:05:07):
but remove the Buffalo game. Offense has been off. But
to me, like this is a classic spot Like last week, right,
Sean mcvagy didn't give a shit about that game. Who
do you think they were game planning for during the
week of the Seattle game. They were probably breaking down
the Lions and the vikings. Half the staff does one,
half the staff does other, and Jimmy just run ten
of our plays all game long. He didn't care about

(01:05:29):
that game, which you could argue whether he should have
because now he plays Washington, but we know that's not
what Sean does. I just think coaching coaching. Coaching matters
a lot, and listen, I'm not acting like Kevin O'Connell
and Flores aren't good, but I'm pro Sam Darnold. But
if he gets off. The other thing is confidence. It
takes a while to build up, and it really kind

(01:05:50):
of came for him. It could go away. I don't
care what you do really quick. So now like short week,
ton of pressure, everyone's kind of questioning him. Now, what
if you have a bad couple of early drives. I
could just see that getting weird fast or just goes well.
I mean, they clearly have a lot of talent and
Sam's made a lot of big plays, but their coach

(01:06:11):
is not gonna keep like he is going to be
relentless on calling pass plays. That's just what he does.

Speaker 1 (01:06:17):
Yeah, the Rams secondary worries me a bit here against
the Vikings, and like, I feel like I'm selling the Vikings.
I'm selling like low on them after what we saw
last week. But I'm with you on the Rams. I
bet the Rams Now. It's a little dicey with way
more important things in the world, but you know, the

(01:06:38):
air quality just and the fire that they could force
in the move, which obviously wouldn't be ideal. But at
the end of the day, give me the better quarterback
as a home dog in this matchup.

Speaker 2 (01:06:50):
Likely it definitely wouldn't be ideal too if they came here,
because I feel like a lot of people from the
general Minnesota region live in Arizona and definitely signing I
could see that being like eighty bike.

Speaker 1 (01:07:05):
Expanse yep uh. Yeah, So that wouldn't be ideal, But
as of right now, they're still planning to play it
that so far, Just give me the better quarterback, and again,
I mentioned the stat before first time quarterback, a quarterback
making their first time first playoff start thirty three percent.
I think it's nineteen thirty seven and one against quarterbacks

(01:07:25):
of playoff experience hasn't gone well. And Darnald it looked
like he was seeing ghosts last week. I mean, and
you mentioned it, they have a Now you've won fourteen games,
but you might have you have to go on the road,
which is crazy a while a weekend, but you might
have a quarterback and a kicker who are lacking in
confidence because Will Reker really struggled down the stretch and

(01:07:47):
Rams kicker Cardy who's had his struggles at times, he's
now has a ton of I think you have a
fifty seven and a fifty eight year order that could
make the difference. But yeah, and you mentioned with McVeigh.
Some people agree with it, some people don't. But that's
what he always does. He did in twenty seventeen, did
it last year, did it this year. He doesn't care
about the seeding in in this case, I can see

(01:08:07):
it in a way like Stafford's older down the stretch,
he looked a little bit older, and they didn't have
a buy since like week five, So I think that
the rest the preparation. They they just had a bye
week last weeks. You have Stafford and this offense, home
dog better quarterback. Yeah, I'm taking it. And then the
Bikes has been good. O'Connell hell of the season what

(01:08:27):
he's done with Darnell. But I think the Rams can
get pressure here. And look the Vikings. They did win
ten games in a row before the loss of the lines.
The only playoff team that they beat during that stretch
was the Packers by two. That was it during that stretch.
And I still think that their secondary is very vulnerable,
like just from a talent perspective, and the Rams receivers,

(01:08:52):
I think they can. I actually think the Rams can
run it to The Vikings have a really good statistical
run defense, but that's because most of the year they
were up and like they were leading teams and dictating
the game state, and like he saw when they played
teams like the Lions, when they weren't up, they Lions
ran all over them. So I think Kien Williams can
have enough success here. So yeah, I would be very

(01:09:14):
concerned about Donald, especially if he gets off to a
slow start. But even at Donald's on, like the Rams
can still keep up, Like look at the Bills game right,
Like the Rams can still win this in a shootout
if they need to. And yeah, they have the rest
of preparation advantage. I am super curious, Like there's there's
a lot of matchups here. One thing I should mention
back to the Bucks coaching, like Liam, give me Liam

(01:09:37):
Cohn over Cliff Kingsbury too, so like that that matters too.
But here Floras versus McVeigh is such a fascinating chess
mesh to me, because what does Floras do in the
first meeting. So the Rams beat the Vikings are this
year at home. In that game, it was a pretty
tricky spot for the Bikings. They were on a short

(01:09:58):
week Thursday night, had a go out West. They didn't
know Nikool was going to play, like he was highly questionable.
Flora said he wasn't he didn't think he was gonna play.
He found that he was shocked, so he didn't really
have a game plan Ford Nikkoh and like it was
a short week anyway, they didn't blitz as much as
they usually do, but they play a ton of zone
and then they're gonna blitz a lot Stafford picks up

(01:10:20):
and those receivers did just destroy zone. And I think
Stafford this year some metch is like thirty first against Man,
the top three against Zone. Flora is one, you know,
one game this year and Jordan Love is kind of
similar splits too. Flora's won one of the games against
the Packers this year went just against everything they've been

(01:10:40):
doing all here and played went Man heavy. So I'm
very curious to see, like the game plan to mcdagh
has he always has like a really good wrinkle, you know,
like just something you wouldn't expect them on the offense
and how what they're gonna run and then what does
Floras do? Like that's such a cool chess match to me,
But to boil it down to the most simplified terms

(01:11:03):
would sometimes you just have to do better quarterback home dog,
assuming they're playing at home. Give me.

Speaker 2 (01:11:10):
I also think, you know, two years ago when they
lost the Giants in this round, they had won thirteen
games and I just had to google it because I
was like, they win twelve, they went thirteen to four.
This year they have fourteen wins. If you lose twice
in three years in the first round, when you win
a total of twenty seven games, Like I do think
we'd Kevin O'Connell's good, but I also thought that, and listen,

(01:11:34):
it might not have directly come from him, but for
a story to come out in one of the biggest
days of his coaching career that like teams might trade
for him, clearly he wants to get paid. Like it
was kind of parcelsy in it's like, bro, let's pump
the brakes. You're gonna get paid this offseason. If I
was Dan Campbell, I would have been licking my lips.
It's like these players aren't dumb, like they know what's

(01:11:55):
going on. It's like, okay, you tell all these players
with focus, focus, focus. Meanwhile, you got fucking Glazer talking
about like guys are gonna trade essentially like it's I
make seven million, it's time to pay me like fifteen.
It's like, oh, I was like, oh, that's not a
good sign. And that's kind of classic football. You can
do that if you're if you're Andy Reid or something

(01:12:16):
like Kevin, let's let's slow down, and then you get
your ass kicked against Aaron Glenn. I mean, come on, man.

Speaker 1 (01:12:22):
Very very interesting timing on those reports.

Speaker 2 (01:12:25):
Yeah, to me, I I didn't like that at all,
and if I was a Vikings fan, and I know
they're not as like inside baseball on at all, but
it's pretty clear, uh you know who wants to why
that report comes out, right, especially when it comes out
you know, Minnesota hasn't talked to him about a contract extension.
It's like, well, let's let's win a real game. You
win a lot of regular SHOs and games like that's cool.

(01:12:46):
Like Mike mcgaaniel's won some regular Sheason games. He's got
bounced in the first round a couple times. Like are
you getting bounced in the first round a couple of times?
So I think this is a big moment for Kevin O'Connell,
who is like, now again, I'm not anti Kevin O'Connell,
but he you know, Brandon Staley, was this really really quick?
Then everyone jumped off of McDaniel. Was this for a while?

(01:13:07):
Kevin O'Connell's that new version now again, thirteen fourteen wins.
Those are great regular seasons. You start winning a real
game and this is a real game.

Speaker 1 (01:13:18):
Yep. I agree with you. That makes the playoffs so
fascinating and some of it's not fair, and some of
it's fair right for sure. The world you live in
in the NFL with one and done's and then questions
start getting asked. By the way, I'm curious to get
your thoughts on this. We debated this on my NFL
podcast this week. If you had we're just gonna take

(01:13:39):
the NFC this year's NFC, and that you have to
get through the NFC and then you have to play
the AC your goal is to win a Super Bowl.
All of the rosters are the same, all of the
coaching stats are the same. There's no advantage. You have
the same scheme that every other player is the same. Like,
so if you were like playing on Madden, you would

(01:14:00):
have the same players except quarterback. And you can choose
which quarterback for your team in the NFC that you
would take that's currently in the playoffs. Which quarterback are
you taking? If your goal is to win a Super
Bowl this year and to get through the playoffs this
year and then the beat you know either presumably the Chiefs,

(01:14:22):
Bills are Ravens. Which NFC quarterback are you rolling with.

Speaker 2 (01:14:27):
It's gonna sound crazy because I probably talk some shit
about this guy, but I might take Jalen hurts just
because he can move, you know, almost, aid Jaden, I
just the Jared Goff thing. If what if my offensive
line is not great? And who's my coach? All of
a sudden he can't move like he's he's pretty predicad
like his success is predicated on some.

Speaker 1 (01:14:44):
Protection, right And yeah, Ben Ben Johnson.

Speaker 2 (01:14:48):
Yeah, so I I aw Stafford, but like you said,
I mean the version of Stafford a couple of years ago.
He's looked a little.

Speaker 1 (01:14:53):
Old, so he can't move.

Speaker 2 (01:14:56):
No, So I that's tough. It's it's hard to ranked
the NFC quarterbacks because like Jordan loves like this raw
big time talent who we've seen have some moments, but
he can also look like crap.

Speaker 1 (01:15:08):
It's love because just if there there, you could make
a case for so many of them. But I wouldn't
take Daniels just because he's a rookie.

Speaker 2 (01:15:16):
But like you could, I would need I would need
mobility in this exercise.

Speaker 1 (01:15:21):
Yeah, you could argue, Baker, you could argue many. I
think I would take love. I think I might take
love because I want to win the super Bowl and
I need to like beat the Chiefs or the Ravens.
Of the bills and all the ross is the same
in the NFC. Love's upside, I know, is really high,
like when he's on and clicking. But yeah, there's no

(01:15:42):
like this is the clear, the right answer in the NFC,
different universe.

Speaker 4 (01:15:47):
Yeah, from a quarterback perspective, for sure, I think the
you even have Herbert, like even the you have the
top tier, second tier, and then even the next tier
with you know, Herbert and Stroud out.

Speaker 2 (01:16:01):
You would take Herbert over every guy in the NFC
without hesitation. Yes, you know, absolutely the one thing that
I gotta Two things were pretty cool last weekend. Obviously
Bryce Young. It's just what a cool story. I mean,
he looked I mean he looked like a UFL player,
and then to come back in after Andy Dalton gets
in the car accident and not just look like a
real NFL player, like be kind of a fun like, Ah,

(01:16:23):
they might have something there. I do think, Baker no.

Speaker 1 (01:16:26):
Look throw the guy who looked like said your own confidence,
like hated his life being out there, to then in
one season then be throwing a no look throw like
taking leadership, yelling at guys, having fun, smiling. Yeah, it's uh,
it was definitely encouraging him. So it was nice to say,
for a guys.

Speaker 2 (01:16:46):
We could all be jaded and negative, you know, the
longer you work in this and just it's easier to be,
you know, down on guys. But that was just an
easy story to kind of make you smile and easy
got a roof for I do think there are some similarities.
It's way different. But in terms of like what Baker
has turned into these last two years, I don't know
if it's getting married, having a child. Clearly he's you know,

(01:17:07):
it's hard to tell like his body, but I think
he's talking about slim down a little bit because he
moves dramatically better. He's always had a really explosive arm.
I mean, he's just a really good player. You know,
he's not in the Josh Allen Lamar mahomes, but he
for sure to me as a top ten quarterback in
the NFL. And he's a really good player.

Speaker 1 (01:17:27):
Yeah, he just has to avoid the catastrophic mistakes which
he can at times just throw a ball in waywards
way a bit too much. But yeah, his mobility and
then like Liam Cohen has been amazing and you do
need help as a quarterback and you can't just have
a one dimensional offense. They couldn't run the ball a
lick and now they have a dynamic rushing attack. It

(01:17:49):
helps everything else out. So yeah, that Baker has been
fun to watch this year, and his scrambling has been
has been great. But yeah, young, there's there's definitely some
some promise there now for sure for Carolina in the
future where it looked like it was it was dead.

Speaker 2 (01:18:08):
I mean, the Bucks are just well run, aren't they.
I mean, they draft well, they just they just run
a good operation. Obviously, it's you know, now starts with Baker.
So okay, let's uh, let's have an exciting weekend and uh,
I hope at least, like, I don't know, seventy five
of these games are good because we're gonna get a
couple of blowouts and the duds in the second half,

(01:18:29):
but hopefully some of them are, you know, really good.
Maybe we even get like a legendary, you know, just
game of the year.

Speaker 1 (01:18:35):
But at least four really good'd be awesome. If there's
five that are really good.

Speaker 2 (01:18:41):
But the Monday Night game recently has been a dud,
right Dak blew out Tom Brady last year, the Bucks
blew out the Eagles, so hopefully I wouldn't mind it.
A couple of years ago, remember the Rams kicked Kingsbury
and Kyler's ass. Yeah, yeah, I wouldn't mind a good
Monday night game.

Speaker 1 (01:18:57):
Yeah, that would be nice, especially since they're making those
teams play on a short week Anyway, the yeah, just
keep in mind historically doesn't mean it's prorective. But this
weekend you're listening, this weekend generally a dog weekend, and
that's what Wildcard weekend has been. If you're if you're

(01:19:18):
looking to bet the and home dog weekend. Specifically, I
happen to like both home dogs to speak, Charger Texans
and Rams.

Speaker 2 (01:19:27):
Okay, stuck y, I'll talk to you next week. We'll
dive into the Divisional round and we'll dive into uh,
we'll know who's playing in the National Championship, So be
an exciting I mean, Divisional round widely considered the best
weekend and you know, all football and obviously the National
Championship is we're recording this on Thursday before the games
has a chance to be I mean, pretty incredible matchups.
So fired up for some football. Talk to you soon, buddy,

(01:19:48):
You bet have a good wee gun brother. The volume

All Episodes

3 & Out - Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeat Penn State in THRILLING College Football Playoff battle

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Colin Cowherd

Jason McIntyre

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

The Joe Rogan Experience

True Crime Tonight

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}3 & Out - Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeat Penn State in THRILLING College Football Playoff battle