The Favorites - NFL Divisional Round Betting Preview

After the Rams finished dismantling the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night, the stage was set for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Now, we've got four excellent matchups in store across the AFC and NFC, and Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into every side and total. Together they select Executive Decision and Simon Says bets, speculate about Conference Championship matchups, and worry about producer Matt's mental health heading into an epic Ravens at Bills showdown in Orchard Park. #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday Divisional Round episode. We will break down the
lines for the best weekend of the NFL season. We
will also discuss our exec decision and our as Simon says,

(00:32):
do not fret. Thursday, we will have the usual menu
foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. We will also
get into some totals other bets we like both today
and on Thursday, expand a little bit since we've only
got four games live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios.

(00:52):
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Mike and padre my BFF professional bet or Simon Hunter
at O Simon.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Hello chat. Yeah, we're looking into this week to have
a little bit of a bounce back, right three on
three on sides and you know, totals five and one
to the under, which was great, but obviously we know
people come here for our sides. Pixel. Yeah, hopefully we
go above five hundred this week.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
Yeah. Well, look, we were on the Rams yesterday as
we were on the Bucks on Sunday night, And I'm
not kidding Matthew Stafford when it looked like he had
fumbled the ball when they were up ten to three
and had been dominating and the Eagle and the Vikings
ran it back. Yeah, I immediately flashed back to Baker

(01:37):
the night before All Star quarterback random fluke fumble in
a game that they were dominating or starting to dominate.
I'm like, are you fucking kidding me? This is happening
two nights in a row. Did you feel that way.

Speaker 2 (01:55):
A little bit? But it's also about this is why
playoffs are the best, Right. It's this game of chess,
and you're just if your opponent makes this little mistake
that dictates the whole game, right, And that's that's what
you're talking about there at Baker. So the Stafford play,
I was never worried about it, but it also makes
me just hate the quarterback position. It's just like that.
Even Belichick, I don't know if you saw in the

(02:15):
many casts, he's just disgusted by it, and he's just like,
only in the NFL would that be allowed to get
away with that? Right? Just a little shuffle pass, flick
of the wrist at your receiver's ankles basically, and yeah,
I feel like we definitely got away one in that play,
but I think once you watch that whole game, we
were never gonna not cover that game. I mean, even

(02:35):
if it was ten ten at that point, I still
think long term the Rams would have won that game.
We just that game really did well. We talk of
all the time, comes down to the quarterbacks and Sam Donald.
Back to back worst games of the season form so
pretty brutal stretch for Sam Donald.

Speaker 1 (02:49):
Yeah. I saw that Stafford play in replay, and I
thought to myself, that's why we like to bet Matthew Stafford.
The guy knew where his receiver was going to be,
and without even seeing it, did the veteran savvy move
of backhanded flick of the wrist got away with it.

(03:10):
Exactly why we like Matthew Stafford.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
I get why people are get upset because you could
you definitely saw the ball moving and becoming loose when
he flicked it again. Like you just said, super veteran play,
like he had enough on his singer tips to move it.
But you definitely saw the ball leaving the palm of
his hand when he got hit and was moving. It
was just like like you just said, thank God for
a veteran quarterback, because that is a guy who's been
in the league a long time in his savvy vet.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
There's one other thing I want to ask you about
before we get into the games. So good news, Mike
Rabel is back. We lost Doug Peterson last week. We
get Mike Rabel back. Yeah this week.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
Ah.

Speaker 1 (03:43):
We love betting Frabel, along with Tomlin, one of the
best coaches to bet of the past twenty years, whether
it's straight up as a dog or as a dog,
he always had the Titans coming through for us. Now
he's got a talented young QB, a lockdown corner along
with the pen. I cannot wait to start betting the
Patriots next year. But in reality, off the top of

(04:05):
your head, as we inch closer to off season, when
we're starting to project these things, how much of a
difference do you think it will make with Vrabel as
a coach who has historically covered when you start evaluating
the Patriots in the off season.

Speaker 2 (04:23):
You definitely are going to give them a one and
a half to two wins bump just because of variable
and now you'll see what their off season moves are,
what their schedules, like how people have them power rated
vice versa your power ratings. And yeah, my initial thought
was just yeah, if they have hit on the quarterback position,
they could become a juggernaut and what a year or

(04:44):
two like if they can draft right, We've seen it.
If you if you hit on the quarterback, it shifts
the whole confidence of the whole you know, the whole organization.
It's it really is life changing. And then if you
bringing the right coach, it's even more so. Right, That's
that's the key. And we've seen that this season where
you know, not that I had a major question about
Dan Quinn, but I did, and he came in. He
apparently adjusted. He became more of a team player coach,

(05:05):
more of a players guy. And you know, Jane Daniels
obviously changed organization. Bo Nicks, Sean Payton changed that Denver organization.
So yeah, I saw some crazy stat It was basically,
Jane Daniels was born in two thousand. That was the
last time the Miami Dolphins won a playoff game. So
it just shows how it can just be hell if

(05:26):
you don't have the right coach to right quarterback in
an organization, and if you do hit on it, it
changes everything in just a year. So that's what's so
cool with the NFL. The quarterback position is just such
a special position.

Speaker 1 (05:35):
Well, that's a great transition to my next question for you,
which is on Sunday afternoon, my son was telling me
about a bunch of different social handles that are playing
this game where they're predicting which coaches are going to
land where in the NFL. Every single one of them
had the Bears getting Cliff Kingsbury. This was this was

(06:00):
before the McCarthy news. And then this morning I read
on ESPN dot com Dan Graziano was predicting based on
the people he's spoken to, which coaches were going to
land where, and he had Brian Flores going to the Bears. So,
if you are me, do you prefer with Kingsbury, Mike

(06:23):
McCarthy or Brian Flores? Do we prefer falling off the
cliff in November? Do we prefer not winning in the playoffs?
Do we prefer a coach who was already potentially or
could have ruined a franchise quarterback.

Speaker 2 (06:42):
I would only reason I'll go Cliff is because you
just want the offensive guy when you have the quarterback
like you do. Like the defense of mentality. Even if
you bring in the right coordinator like a Ben Johnson
is not He's not going to be there for a
long haul. He'll eventually leave for the next better opportunity
the offensive coordinator. So to me, you want to get
the offensive mine with the quarterback that you guys have,
And that makes me so sad to hear. Like again,

(07:05):
we like and respect Brian Flores. I don't know if
you saw Ryan Fitzpatrick talking about him. It's like this
man has to stay and discuss for this guy years
and years later. And you know he was the one
that was treated well by Brian Flores. He wasn't even
the TUA in the relationship. So yeah, it's a man.
I feel bad for you, Chad. It's just tough being
a Bears fan. And I mean this sounds crazy to say,

(07:26):
but yeah, my mentality of it would be I would
hope they would just go offensive. And I get why Brian.
People love Brian Flores. What he's done with that Viking's
defense has been incredible, but you know, I just I
can't see that working well, especially the personalities of him
being the old school guy where Caleb is the definition
of new wave gen Z right, Like, I just I

(07:48):
can't see that working well. So yeah, for you, I know,
it's painful because we just don't trust the guy at all.
But Kingsbury, I guess would be the best fit.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
It's been an interesting experience going through this with my son.
It's like the first time he's feeling invested in who
the Bears hire as a coach, right because because the
Bears have Caleb and so it feels like we have
an opportunity. And you know, the last time we hired
a coach Iria Flew was like, we didn't really have

(08:16):
high expectations. And so he's feeling it and he's texting
me when he should be paying attention to whatever class
he's in about the latest thing he's hearing about the
Bears coaching search. And I just keep saying to him,
imagine the worst possible resolution and then make it worse.

(08:41):
If there is a coach out there who's not on
the radar the Bear's going to hire. They can hire
my high school football coach, not my coach, but the
guy who coached my high school football team. They'll find
a way to make it look like it's the exact
right decision when we all know it's not. So I'm
just trying to tempering his expectations. And last night we
were talking about it, I'm like, I just don't think

(09:03):
you get it. I don't think you get how painful
and horrible this is gonna be. I'm sorry for.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
You and your division. Right Like, you're coming into a
vision with Dan Campbell, Lafleur and KOC and it's like, man,
you really do need to hit on someone here, because
it is you guys are lagging in that category by
a mile.

Speaker 1 (09:21):
The things we do to our children. As a reminder,
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one
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five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites the positive
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(09:42):
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Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply four games to get through,

(10:06):
four sides, four totals, anything else that comes up. The
best football weekend during the NFL season, We love the
Divisional playoffs. Houston at Kansas City, first game on the board,
Saturday afternoon. Kansas City is an eight point favorite at
bet three six five. The total was forty one and
a half bigger than the Mountains, taller than jgrees half before.

Speaker 2 (10:34):
Take the hard to the place squee below Kansas City.

Speaker 1 (10:45):
The line has moved within a very specific narrow band.
It opened at seven and a half, got it up
to eight and a half, down to eight seven and
a half in a lot of spots. The elephant in
the room Mahomes is a favorite of more than three,

(11:06):
being a historically bad bet versus the combo of home
teams and favorites this season and during the wild card
being the right side. These teams did play each other
about three weeks ago. They played on the twenty first
of December. The line was three and a half. Simon.

(11:26):
I'm going to dig deeper into what we did in
that game. But if you're looking at this and it's eight,
it's seven and a half, a difference of four points
from the last time they played at home for Kansas City.
What do you see here?

Speaker 2 (11:41):
Yeah, and this is honestly because it is the playoffs
to meet Chad, that the books will adjust this way
because we know it's just different. And the same thing
with my model. My model has this as great value
on Houston, right, and it's just because it simply doesn't
understand the Mahomes factor. We talked about that last year.
I had the forty nine ers as favorites in the

(12:03):
Super Bowl, but I still bet the Chiefs. I had
the Eagles unfortunately as the favor in the Super Bowl,
and I went against it, and I learned that lesson
pretty hard that day. It's just like these models, it's
like the Tom Brady effect. They just can't compute Mahomes
and what that just does to the guys in the
other sideline. Right. We always talk about that the guys
on the other side, and I'm looking across at my home.
Especially in the playoffs, it's different. You know that that

(12:25):
killers across the field and he's coming for you. So yeah,
in a normal regular season, Chad, we would be hammering
the Texans. Here it's CJ as a huge dog against
Mahomes who plays with his food. But that changes in
the playoffs. So we talked about it a little bit
on Sunday night. If you do want to take a
position on Houston, I'm not doing it up saying if
you do, Chad gave it out. I believe it was
five and a half six first half on the Houston number.

(12:47):
Dake it Houston, I think there, what Evan are they
fourteen and three or fifteen and two this season? First
half against the spread? Incredible. They've been incredible, and we've
seen the Chiefs do come out slow. I personally just
can't do it. I'm even thinking about it right now.
I'm getting visions of them in arrow ahead. It's twenty
five degrees and it'shus Mahomes first drive touchdown fourteen and

(13:09):
four against the first half. So Houston has just been
incredible at first half, and yeah, this is and it's
just a number in the fact that you've seen a
lot of these numbers get bumped up because it is
what the sports books need to do. They need to
protect against the money line parlays and the teasers. And
when this number opened seven and a half, that to
me was right, Like I said, my model is this

(13:29):
at seven. So it's like, okay, it's up half a
point for people doing the seven point teasers, doing the
six point teasers, right, that's they're still getting the key number.
Now that it is up to eight and a half,
you know, that's that's crossed a bunch of key numbers
at this point. This is now if you do teaser,
this is at two and a half, which is still value.
But it's also reason I could still see this keep
going up. I could still see the books keep moving

(13:51):
this just because the pros that are going to bet Houston.
I don't know why they had rushed about it. It's
the same thing we're gonna talk about this week. Like
if you like the dogs, you kind of can be
patient at this point because the numbers have basically moved
to where they're going to be at at this point,
like they might keep going up because of public money
and some professional may they do like the favorites. But yeah,
this this spot for me, Like it's crazy to look

(14:12):
back on last week. I should have went six and
zer on those unders. The only under I didn't hit
was that fluke Houston Chargers game, which was like the
stupidest over. Like it really killed me too, because I
was the start of the week and it was just like,
oh god, if I made a huge mistake ben these unders,
if we got such bullshit like that. No, it's you
gotta trust the numbers, and right here, most people are
gonna know if they break it down. It's if you

(14:34):
look at these totals and especially this game, this is
going to be the lowest total of the week, right,
I think it's already down to forty two a lot
of books. That's because we saw it last week. Houston
has a great pass rush. We know that the Chiefs
have struggles on the offensive line. On the flip side,
it spags in the playoffs. It spags at home in
the playoffs, like they just the Chiefs dominate unless it's
Josh Allen. They dominate teams at home in this exact

(14:56):
spot defensively. So yeah, if you're looking for my early
side right now. On Tuesday, I liked the Chiefs of
this number. I'd betted up to nine ten. Once it
gains to ten, that's when I stopped. But at this number,
I still feel confident in my homes just closing out
this Houston team that you know, they got away with
them last week. And I do get people's view on this,
taking taking CJ in this exact spot. I can't can't

(15:17):
say a bad word about it because it is the
professional sharp side. But to me, it's like, at what
point does the number make sense? A nine and a
half ten, I can be talked into Houston at that point,
But at nine and below, I think the value still
in this Chiefs team.

Speaker 1 (15:31):
So when they played on the twenty first and the
line was three and a half, to me, that was
about up to that point, the Chiefs had been winning
games by one point two point three points. They'd also
been playing sort of with with you know, one arm

(15:51):
tied behind their back in terms of the weapons, right
they were missing Jalen Watson on defense at cornerback, and
we talked about this on the show a bunch. When
Spags runs his offense his defense, he really needs to
have great coverage in the secondary. Well, it's possible Jalen

(16:14):
Watson is coming back this week. They were playing obviously
all season without Hollywood Brown. They played most of the
season and were just getting DeAndre Hopkins into rhythm in
the latter half of the year. Isaiah Picheko, that was
one of his first games.

Speaker 2 (16:30):
The biggest things.

Speaker 1 (16:32):
That was one of his first games back. Right, So
in the latter half of the year, forget about the
Broncos game. In the three games before the Broncos game,
when they sat everybody, they were favorites on the road
against the Browns. Normally you'd automatically want to fade the
Chiefs in that spot. They won twenty one to seven.

(16:53):
The next week, they're three and a half point favorites
at home against the Texans. Again, historically you want to
fade Patrick Mahomes as more than a three point favorite,
and they're going against a good defense and a good
quarterback who struggled, but still a good quarterback. They win
by seventeen points. The next weekend, they're on the road again,

(17:14):
two point favorites against the Steelers. It's a spot you
want to smash. Mike Tomlin at home Rah rah. They
cover with these so at some point and we bet
by the way we did bet, I went back and looked,
we bet the Chiefs against the Texans when they were
three and a half point favorites, because we were starting
to feel like this was a team that was coming

(17:38):
into its own and through the hard phase and realizing
how they were going to play once they got to
the playoffs. I'm glad you're saying the Chiefs because I
wanted to bet the Chiefs and like I needed a
little bit of reassurance.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
And another way, I wanted to bet Houston honestly coming
into it, and I was like trying to find reasons,
even looking for trends off the wait and see if
Evans finds out better ones about why you should back Houston.
But my biggest one was just, man, this this feels
like you're getting free points here because of these teasers
in these parlays. But we talk all the time like
there's certain certain numbers that do make sense and when
you really dive into the numbers that back it up,

(18:13):
and it's like, man, that Houston team they definitely got
away of the one last week and that we're let's
gonna be a theme this week about certain teams that
are a little inflated, overrated from their previous week, and
it feels like that might be here with Houston, because
I thought this would just be all Chiefs money. And
you know, we've had two days now and I've talked
to a bunch of different book makers, not just here
in Jersey, a couple of guys in PA and it's

(18:36):
plenty of Houston money at this point. So I think
the public is still in the perspective of this Chiefs
team is not this juggernut one seed where I'm on
the other way, I'm like, this is one of the
best runs we've ever seen, one of the best organizations,
and they just always get better as the season goes along,
and you just laid it out for people like you
saw a turn. As they've gotten back these guys on offense,

(18:56):
I've gotten healthy that they can if they want to
run up the scroll on these teams, and we've seen
the playoffs. They don't take their foot off the gas.
Andy Reid leans into and tries to dominate these teams,
especially at home.

Speaker 1 (19:08):
It feels weird to say people are sleeping on them.
A fifteen win two time, defending champ number one seed,
but all of the attention is on Buffalo and Baltimore.
And the one thing I think about with this defense
that the Texans have, and everyone gets excited about Danielle
Hunter and Will Anderson and how many sacks they had

(19:32):
against the Chiefs, against the Chargers and what they did
during the year, and I just think to myself, Patrick
Mahomes is so hard to sack. They've had a bad
left tackle the entire season, and they figured out how
to manage it, including the last few weeks when they
just moved Joe Tooney out there. Patrick Mahomes on third

(19:53):
down knows exactly when to run. He is so frustrating
to try to defend. I think he breaks your spirit.
I really do. It's a big number. I'm not afraid
of it. It's not assignment says, it's not an exact decision,
but we're leaning the Chiefs here. And it seems to
me you mentioned the under it's forty one and a half.

Speaker 2 (20:17):
I mean, in Jersey there's Bethrieix five's forty two, but
if you shop around there is there is a forty
two and a half out there at a very public book.
But yeah, so that's literally come down while we've done
the show, Like before we hopped on, there's a bunch
of forty two and a half, its forty two out there. Now,
you're right, it's moving people. It's moving down to forty
one and a half in a lot of books. But
do we like the under I like it, but it's
starting to move through key numbers at this point, like

(20:38):
it's at the edge. Is like incredibly swolln On and
I literally have this game of forty one, so like, yeah,
I like it a forty one and a half sure,
but yeah, we're losing a little bit of value there
with the big money coming in moving this number.

Speaker 1 (20:49):
Now, Washington at Detroit Detroit is a nine and a
half point favorite. The total is fifty five and a half.
This is the primetime game on Saturday night.

Speaker 2 (21:03):
There's so many many reasons any time, any season is
the right time to be with you. Hello, Detroy, do you.

Speaker 1 (21:27):
Want my first instinct on this? Holy moly, this is
a huge number.

Speaker 2 (21:35):
Yes, Simon says, give me Washington plus nine and a half.
Chat When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says,
this is an insane number. What is this number is
this is this US overreacting too much to last week?
And Daniels, I don't think it is all the praise
he's getting. I haven't had this amazing tweet that went viral.
Zero pun zero turnovers on the road. Only him and

(21:56):
Peyton Maney have ever done that in the playoffs. So yeah,
we're like we said, we're seeing something special here. But
me and you talked about a little bit that was
Baker's game that he blew, Like, yeah, his defense, Tampa
did make stops on fourth down. Right, we talked about
the regression that was coming for Washington. It showed up.
They did have the regression on the fourth down and
they got the stops. And you know, there was a

(22:17):
bunch of different times that Baker could have taken a
lead by four points. Right, they had that four point
lead he fumbles up.

Speaker 1 (22:23):
They should have won this game by double digits, like,
honest to god, as well as Jaden played, he ran,
he threw, he converted at least outside of the red zone. Yeah,
but it was seventeen thirteen. The Bucks had just stopped
the Commanders in the red zone on fourth down from

(22:44):
the goal line, and they were starting to dominate that game.
Bucky Irving was starting to dominate that game. Baker was
finding Mike Evans whenever he wanted Mike Evans to the
point where they had to take Marshawn Lattimore off of
Mike Evans start double teaming him. They were going to
go up twenty four to thirteen when they got the
ball back and Baker fumbled. Like the defense mainly looked

(23:09):
good for the Commanders because the Commander's offense engineered so
many long, freaking drives. The time of possession was eleven
minutes in Washington's favorite and they had twenty five more plays.
If you dig into the stats on this game, Baker
was fifteen of eighteen with the yards per attempt of

(23:30):
nine and a half. Like, what worries me about this
is what is Jared Goff going to do to this defense?

Speaker 2 (23:39):
I mean, he might do well, honestly though. The fear
for me is the running game of That's why I
think this number makes sense when it's moved so high
above seven again once again protecting against tezers and everything
like that, this is going to be and everyone's parlay.
Why would like Chads is breaking down you? Why would
Detroit lose this game, right, they are arguably the best
running team of football going against the Commanders team that

(24:01):
I mean, we know the deal. They can't stop the run,
Like you said, they did really well early on stopping Bucky,
but once the game gets into the second half and
they're worn out that front line, you can run the
ball in Washington. Now, you know, we're in a different
stratus for at this point, especially if you know Montgomery's back.
I mean, yeah, it's the ultimate combos So that's why

(24:21):
I understand the move. But to me, it's really all
about the fourth downs and that's what I'm banking here,
bet in this summer where it's this game is basically
to come down to both sides and what they can
do on fourth downs. And you know, James Daniels, I
don't there's no one on Detroit's front seven that can
stay with him and stop him. Like they don't have
that X factor that can slow him down and kind

(24:43):
of change the game with what we've seen Jane Daniels do,
which is he's so cool, common collective. You know exactly
when to run, when to make the right pass, when
to make the right read. And you know we knew
going to that game that whoever made the mistake was
going to lose. He was the vet in that game, right,
Like you just said, Baker with that fumbo stupid. But
the really dumb bonehead to play by Baker was him

(25:04):
trying to run the ball himself, say hand it off
the Bucky again stopped on that short what was that
second and one or third and one? And then they
get stuffed the next play.

Speaker 1 (25:11):
Right in the next play, the center snapped it right,
anybody ready ready, and so the whole thing was blown up.

Speaker 2 (25:18):
And like again, that's a veteran team making those stupid
mistakes and clutch moments. On the flip side, Jane and
Daniels once again, two minute drill drove the field whatever
that was, four minutes left in the game, ate all
the clock up, perfect drive, sailed it with a field goal.
It's you know, we talk all the time, there's just
certain guys that you've never seen it before and you
have to adjust to it. And like Chad just said,

(25:40):
he got lucky. Jane Daniels, he put us team in
the best position, but we just broke it down. Baker
lost that game. He was all set up for Baker
on multiple times to either close the game out or
go up two scores and kind of put the nail
on the dagger right end that game and nail the
coffin and end that game. And you know he just
didn't do it. On the flip side. As much respect
we do have for Thisroit Detroit team, I mean, this

(26:03):
is gonna shock people. I actually like the over two
in this game. It's fifty five. It's a huge over.
But this is just everything about this game just scream shootout,
like there's nothing defensively. I know people are like, well,
look at their last game against the Vikings, aren't we
all in agreement? That was more about sam Donold than
anything else. Even if you break down that film, he
had guys open and you know that Jane Daniels ain't

(26:26):
going to miss those throws. I don't think this kid
is just so poised. And you know the pros I
talked to that are betting against him in this spot.
The reasoning in his sound right, it's really relying on
that offense to Detroit and the fact that they're they're
betting on what we bet on last week because it
was a fourth down regression from that team in Washington,
which you know, we know it's gonna happen. Me and

(26:46):
chatted ready for that, But I also think, you know
what he did last week? What were they were they
sixty percent? I've been on fourth down last week, but
that feels right rather than I think they're eighty percent
or something above that for the whole season, Like sixty
percent makes more sense. I saw special. Jane Daniels is
so yeah for me in this matchup, Chad. I know
it's crazy, but of all the games this week, this

(27:06):
one feels like not the most inflated line, but it
really does. Of all the lines, like this is the
one that doesn't seem right to me at all. And
you know the fact that you can get Jane Daniels
right now at plus three eighty plus four hundred a
couple of books straight up to win this game, how
do I not bet that? Like there is value there
facing the Detroit team that has had issue stopping really

(27:28):
high powered offenses, and we've seen, you know, Lions are incredible.
The one game most recently they did lose to Josh
Allen was a shootout. I think it was forty eight
to forty two. And that's that's my envision if me
and you are betting this Washington team. We think they
could pull the upside off. That's where're gonna need this
to be. It's going to be a forty to thirty three,
forty to thirty five type of win for this Jane

(27:50):
Daniels team. So yeah, I know it's a lot to
put on this rookie, but he's just different. And we've
talked about it, so you know, could be in my words,
come next week, next Tuesday, if he just gets absolutely
rolled in this matchup. But I just after watching them
back to back starts now against my own team now
in the playoffs, and it's just his confidence is pois,
especially to close these games out. I have to come
to terms with this kid as a unique freak. He's

(28:11):
just one of the kinds. So to me, this is
a disrespectful line of Jane Daniels, And you know, I
feel like we're getting a ton of value here just
because there is so much love and respect for this
Lions team show.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
I'm really surprised to hear this all from you, not
that you don't like the Lions at nine and a half,
but that the Commanders would be your Simon says with
a rookie quarterback.

Speaker 2 (28:36):
But he did take the Eagles.

Speaker 1 (28:38):
What's that?

Speaker 2 (28:39):
So he did take the Eagles?

Speaker 1 (28:40):
But yeah, yeah, well, I mean it's just it's just
it's a hard one to swallow, it really is.

Speaker 2 (28:48):
Yeah, it's tough. I mean again, because we love the Lions.
We've loved them all season chat I mean, deep down,
do I really want them to lose here? No, it's
this is the sleeper team for me, just like the
Buffalo that I want to win the Super Bowl. Their
fans deserve it. But when you go through their numbers,
it's like they couldn't have picked a more trap team
for this Detroit team, like everything they can do offensively

(29:10):
and Washington is going to give major problems this Detroit defense.
And I just this is the dream scenario for me,
Like a high scoring playoff game total of fifty five.
I love it. And I love them taking the over
here because you know me, I love under especially when
it's above fifty, but not this one. Indoors track me
between these two teams, I can't wait. You're never gonna
feel comfortable either what side you're on this entire game.

(29:31):
I could see the Troy gain up by seventeen at
one point and we're still going to be like, you
know what, we got a chance, Chad, we got a
chance covering this big one.

Speaker 1 (29:38):
Well that's the thing. It's like the number is so
big and Jayden Daniels is such a wild card that
and they do go for it so frequently on fourth down.
The variance is just so much higher, Like the chance
to score a lot of points is going to be there.
That's I was not like immediately when I saw this
fifty five and a half, I'm like, oh, yeah, we're

(29:58):
going to be on the under in this game. And
so this is a completely This is like the alternative
the opposite day Simon taking the huge rookie underdog and
the huge over basket.

Speaker 2 (30:16):
You know, it's gonna be a lot for me to
take it over because I just I always want to
take under. So yeah, I really do have a vision
for this game. I'm hoping it pans out that way.

Speaker 1 (30:24):
Los Angeles Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are
six point favorites. The total is forty three and a half.
This is the Sunday afternoon game. It opened at five
and a half. It's bumped up to six. Executive decision Eagles.

Speaker 2 (30:39):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
have your honors? Text cut, executive decision, Let's go.

Speaker 1 (30:49):
What I don't get is on November twenty fourth, the
Eagles were three point favorites on the road in LA.
So obviously we realize home field means a lot less
in the NFL this year. But what bookmakers are basically

(31:10):
saying by making this game six in Philly after making
it three in LA, is that LA's home field is zero.
There is no advantage to playing in LA. There is
not even from a crowd perspective. Forget it. There's no
advantage to practicing all week at home, to being in

(31:31):
your bed until Saturday night, to not traveling like there
is zero. There is not even a one point advantage
for the Rams to play in LA. That to me
is what bookmakers are saying in this game.

Speaker 2 (31:46):
Yeah, I wouldn't overact to it too much. So it's
also it's it's week to week with bookmakers, right, they're
making the lines for that week. They don't really think
about the previous line and where the value was in
that for home field. And you know, to me, is
someone that had Green Bay power rate are just a
little higher and a higher grade. Yeah, I have this
line at six and a half, so it's only a

(32:07):
half point difference than what I had great on Green Bay.
But I also think I'm my model and everything else
is kind of underrating this Egles team, which we can
dive into. You're of the sense that, you know, it
feels like a lot of pros right now we're rating
this RAMS team, and I think it is because of
their model. And you know, we saw them come in
heavy on the six and a half when it opened
on this RAMS team, and the book makers, like you said,

(32:29):
immediately moved to five and a half, took some Egles
of money, bumped up to six, and now they're moving
a couple of books our backup to six and a half.
So it could be the sense of the public and
the pros early on we're thinking, you know, that's great
value on the Eagles, and me and you are hoping
they're going to get caught here because I'm with you.
I love this Eagles team. I think this is what
we love in the playoffs. Of team in first round

(32:53):
doesn't look that good because of expectations, and people hold
that against in the next round, and a team that
people didn't think we're gonna win or be that good
gets a little overrated because of what they did in
their previous game. And I think we both had the
same view of that Vikings game that, yes, that first
drive by Stafford Vin Didge Stafford, I thought they were

(33:14):
gonna win that thirty five to ten or something like that.
He was just gonna pretty close. Yeah, put up a
ton of points. But when you go into it that offense,
you know, take away the defensive touchdown. They put up
twenty points against that Vikings defense in which they should
have dominated, like they had that team on their heels
basically the whole game. They had a good field position
basically the whole game because they had sacked Darnold about

(33:36):
nine times in that game, had a bunch of turnovers.
So you dive into the numbers. Is Higbee really that
important to the Rams because those first two drives when
he was in there, they looked incredible moving the ball.
Five targets, five catches, Yeah, and then he leaves and
it kind of falls apart. Puka had nine targets, He
had five catches for forty forty yards. Cooper Cup What

(33:58):
has happened to Cooper Cup, Like, I mean, there's tons
of jokes going around the internet, but I don't know
what the hell is real, what's going on there. But
he had one catch for twenty nine yards Cooper Cup
in that game.

Speaker 1 (34:09):
That it's not like a great catch though, yeah it
was a great.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
Catch, but it's just bizarre where it's like something something
is off. We talked about going into something's been off
about Stafford in this offense for weeks now, and they have,
you know, becoming in these playoffs. They had moved to
a defensive team, So maybe I am underrating their defense
too much, But I do think that was just about
Sam Donald. Like the dude was holding them the ball
for over four or five seconds in his pocket. Me

(34:36):
and you watched him all season. Hell, I lost so
much money on him early in the year. I was
obsessed with Sam Donald watching that offense. And I did move.
I turned it around and gave them a ton of credit.
But that Sam Donald we saw these last two weeks,
That's what I thought the season was gonna be with him.
Like this guy who holds onto the ball too long,
He's indecisive in the pocket, he is not comfortable in
the read and reading the offense. That was not him

(34:57):
for this season. He was so comfortable, so confident, that
pass heavy offense. You know, we just what happened these
last two games is bizarre. And that's we talk all
the time, that's the mental side of football, right and
we see that especially here with Sam Darnold. And we
do want to give credit to the Rams defense. They
did play really well. The Eagles are a different beast
and now you have Okay, they weren't even home, right,

(35:21):
they're in Arizonas they have to fly home on Monday,
back to LA on our short week, now fly out
east to come play in Philly, and what's going to
be a thirty degrees game that starts at three pm,
so gonna end up being a night game at one point.
And you know that's not the best spot for Stafford
in these exact situations. I mean, if you go through
even this season, not that they've had an easy schedule,

(35:43):
but he never really had to play outdoors in the
cold and basically any game this year. And you just
I still think in my mind too, I came to
the season thinking I had Stafford from years past. We've
just seen it's just different, Like Stafford is not the
guy he was of the past. They are a different
offense and they want to do be a run heavy,
front first type of team with Williams, which makes sense, right,

(36:03):
that's part of their identity. But we've seen these two
teams play earlier this year. Eagles, you know, they put
up thirty seven. I know, if you look back, you
see the Rams put up twenty one. Of that last
touchdown they scored in the final minute, it really was
thirty seven to twelve. Like that was not by any metric,
even that close of a game anyway, So I do

(36:25):
think the publics are raiding and it's just a great
matchup once again for this Eagles team, like they if
they want to lean on the run here they can
do it. This is a very young, talented, very talented
front line of the Rams. Well, they are very young,
and we've seen they struggle against really good run dominant
teams this season. So yeah, for me, if this was

(36:45):
in La Indoors, I probably would have a different grade
on this number. But the fact that we're getting the
Eagles at home in this exact spot, I just love
the Eagles defensive role and shock another game. I like
the under here. I just I just can't see the
Rams putting up any type of points and Eagles to me,
will just be run heavy. I know people don'tant to
hear they want to hear it Jalen Hurts throwing the
ball twenty five thirty times, but there's just no there's

(37:07):
gonna be no need for in this matchup. You just
gotta lean in your strength here with the run game,
and just just feels like another twenty five to ten,
twenty four to ten type of win for this Eagles team.
It's just I just can't see how the Rams put
up multiple grid drives against this Eagles defense. Where the
Eagle strength is that secondary and that's to me, that's
the strength of this Rams team with Cooper and Pooka,
and it's just not been that way this later half

(37:29):
of the season. So yeah, I'm with Chattier. I love
this Eagles. I honestly would bet it up to seven.
So even if you're like, my only book is only
shown six and a half, I still would take that number.
I still think there's value there. But we just talked
about it. If you want to do teasers, there's plenty
of good options this week to tease as well.

Speaker 1 (37:45):
RAMS had one cold game this year. I don't know
if you remember it. I do. It was the New
York Jets, and I believe, yeah, I believe we were
on the.

Speaker 2 (37:55):
Jets and the under. That was a good undergame, and
it was the.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
Game I think, I think where Jeff Ulbrick consistently went
forward and fourth down in a game where it was clear.

Speaker 2 (38:06):
From right. I do remember that.

Speaker 1 (38:09):
Yeah, any number, if he had twelve points, he was
going to win the game. And of course he went
forward and fourth down every opportunity, including on his own
thirty and they end up losing. The number is the
last time the Eagles played the Rams. Freakish. Yeah, four
hundred and eighty one total yards, seven yards per play.

(38:30):
The Eagles had five sacks. Don't forget. That was the game.
Saquon ran for two hundred and fifty five yards. I
am not going to be fooled by the Rams dominance
against the Vikings. When the Eagles are so physically dominant,

(38:51):
their offensive line is not the Vikings offensive line. Their
defensive line, as good as the Vikings defense is, is
not the Vikings defensive line. These are physical, aggressive, really
powerful line of scrimmage opportunities for the Eagles to dominate.

Speaker 2 (39:13):
Yeah, and amazing stat from Evan Stafford's only outdoor game
forty degrees or quarter since twenty twenty one, So twenty
twenty one that Jets game, so like he just never
plays outdoors in the cold, and Jad just broke that game.
If you go back and watch that Jets game, they
won that game thirty different ways. They basically wear the
offense for the RAMS team, basically just giving them short

(39:34):
fields time and time again. They're not gonna have that
same scenario here against this Eagles team, who is well coached,
doesn't do stupid plays like that. And you know, as
you just broke it down, they have gotten better this
RAMS team defensively, but you have to go back and
look at the competition they've done it against. Now they're
going against ar wab Be, the best run team of
football with the best pass defense in football, and it's

(39:55):
just a really perfect matchup for this Eagles team. Honestly, Like,
I actually, as an Eagles fan, wanted Sam Donald, but
after watching that Rams game, I'm just as happy to
get them. They're just I don't think they're the same
team as they were even two years ago. Right, They're
just I think Stafford's in a much different stage of
his career.

Speaker 1 (40:12):
AJ Brown even at one hundred yards in a touchdown
in that game, the last time he was truly inspired.
But boom, boom bam, Simon. A lot of things went
sideways over the weekend, coaching misshaps, bad calls by officials,
Kansas City being given a bye week, But the biggest

(40:33):
impact on performance was simple comfort levels. The Bills and
Ravens looked incredibly comfortable and rolled the victory, and just
last night the Rams made Sam Donald almost criminally uncomfortable
and it was a disaster because when you're not comfortable,
you can't do anything properly. Our friends with Tommy John's

(40:54):
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(41:16):
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you be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?

Speaker 2 (41:26):
Because comfort is king.

Speaker 1 (41:28):
Right Now you can shop Tommy john dot com slash
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Save twenty five percent at Tommy john dot com slash Favorites.
That's Tommy john dot com slash Favorites. I saved the
best for last. Baltimore at Buffalo.

Speaker 2 (41:50):
Good afternoon everyone. This is Van Miller and the road
to the Super.

Speaker 1 (41:53):
Bowl goes through Orchard Park.

Speaker 2 (41:55):
New York.

Speaker 1 (41:56):
It's playoff time. It is bedlam, it isium, it is
fan noemodium, it is fantastic. Depending on where you look,
Buffalo is a one point favorite and the total is
fifty one and a half. This game is at six
thirty pm Eastern on Sunday Night. It's all over the place,

(42:17):
though Some places have the Bills minus one. Other places
the Ravens minus one. I've seen the bills as high
as plus one and a half. You know. On Sunday Night.
Producer Gifford was very upset after the show because he
thought you and I were fighting when you said you
liked the bills, and I thought it was overreacting to

(42:41):
the to the Bill's victory, And so are we still fighting?
Who do we trust the most in this game? Lamar
or Josh.

Speaker 2 (42:54):
No, I think the line's been drawing the sand. You
think Lamar's the MVP. I think Josh's MVP. You love
this Ravens team, love this Bills team. There's no there's
no fighting. We're just two men with two different opinions,
and someone's going to be right, someone's going to be wrong. Chad.
I'm seeing basically every book has the Ravens as a favorite.

Speaker 1 (43:14):
So yeah, it's possible. It's updated. Like, yeah, to be fair,
I got caught up doing something before the show began.
Normally I'm checking all the lines right before we come on,
and the last time I checked them was like ten
o'clock this morning. So it's very possible that right now
the Bills are no longer the favorite and they are
now an underdog of one.

Speaker 2 (43:33):
Hey, you're a squirrel. You're forging for nuts before the show.
I get it. But this line is there's the truth.

Speaker 1 (43:39):
I am starving and I didn't eat before the show
and it was a mistake.

Speaker 2 (43:46):
No, that's I never eat before the show. You think
better when you're hungry. It's truely true. It is. Look
at it this line, honestly, Chad, I told you this
is what was going to happen. I really knew that
this was gonna flip, just because I know you thought
that public was over overacting to the Bills game, but
in my mind, it was like they're going to overact
to that Ravens game like that was. I mean, Derrick

(44:09):
Henry just looks like the ultimate game changer. Like that,
people in their mind are going to say, this is
what Lamar needed to get him over the hump of
a Josh Allen or the Chiefs. Right, this is the difference.
You got Derrick Henry, the ultimate game changer him and
him and Lamar are the one two punch. And I
mean you touch on a little bit. You said to me,
aren't you scared that the Bills won't be able to

(44:29):
stop it? Yeah? Of course. Like I mean, if you
go back and watch the first time they played, I
think the first carrier or whatever it was, might have
been the first quarter, like Derek Henry was busting this
insane run for a touchdown, just grown man shit. And
I get where you're coming from with this Ravens team,
and public and professionals agree with you. We've seen this
number flip now because so much money has come in

(44:51):
on this Ravens team, and this is exactly where I
want to be. I'm getting now the Bills as a
home dog. This is what I wanted and nothing shame
true me. It's like this is the exact spot, like
this Bill's locker room being told they're a dog here,
Josh Allen being a home dog. You know, Evan or
maybe it was Matt Mitchell our slack was talking in

(45:12):
our slack that this is the first time since nineteen
seventy the Bills are a home dog in the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (45:19):
Its first first time. I think Matt Mitchell put this
in the chat. Isn't this the first time they've ever
been a home dog in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (45:27):
I just told you since nineteen seventy, I.

Speaker 1 (45:29):
Know, but I think that's the beginning of their That's
our first home playoff game, I believe.

Speaker 2 (45:35):
Yeah, So this is pretty pretty special, unique opportunity here, Chad,
and does Lamar deserve that type of respect? Yes, we
just broke it down. This man might be the three
time MVP should be. He's got arguably the best running
back or second best running back in all football, and
Derrick Henry and you know we talk they have all

(45:57):
pros across the defense. Like you know, Rakewan and Hambleton
are just the ultimate combo for that defense. And you
know we've seen them now in this second half really
make a huge adjustment and just get so much better.
But I told you, I just can't get over the
fact that if Josh Allen has the ball and the

(46:18):
opportunity to go win this game, I have the ultimate
faith of him in this exact spot where Lamar Chad,
I just do not. I do not if he needs
to have a final drive to make you know, a
winner take all type of moment for Lamar in this
playoff in this spot, I just don't have the faith
in him. So this one really is tough because the
number you can throw it out right, we both know
it's like one and a half. If this game does

(46:39):
come down to one team winning by one, I'll eat
my fucking words. But this this game feels like, you know,
either a field goal to a touchdown type of win
where it's it's going to be one team kind of
dominating the other team, kind of getting a late late
driver or a back door here. And when I really
dive into it, yes, the numbers are not great for
this Bills team, especially against a type of team that

(47:01):
this Ravens team is. But I just keep keep going
back to the fact that it's Josh Allen as a
home dog in this exact spot. And if you look
at the Action app, the Action app, no one believes
in them. It's all the money. All the tickets right
now are all Baltimore. So I just love this spot.
This just feels like the perfect spot to back the Bills.
And my dream scenario Bills win big, dominate, Chiefs look bad.

(47:24):
They go to Kansas City as somehow a road favorite.
Mahomes is a home dog and Arrowhead Like, that's my
dream set up right now if you're trying to get
there with this Chiefs team. So yeah, I can't believe
that they are up TI plus one and a half,
this Bill's team right now as a home dog, So
I can't help it that much.

Speaker 1 (47:43):
It makes no sense to bet them at one, like
you might as well bet them on the money line, right.

Speaker 2 (47:51):
Yeah, we're like we talk all the time, like if
you are scared off by the number, it's a good
tease number, and now I can get them up to
seven or if you do a and a half point teaser,
you get up to seven and a half. So, like
I said, though on Sunday night, I could easily be
flipped on this game if the if that had gone
with Chat thought, Chat thought, what do you think the
Bills would be a two point favorite at this point

(48:13):
or something like that?

Speaker 1 (48:14):
Well, they, I think they they It was one and
a half when we spoke, they had been two, and
I thought it might go back to two because I
thought people would overreact to the Bills.

Speaker 2 (48:25):
And to me, that would have been great because then
we are getting a little more yes across the key
number of two, and that's where I would have been happy.
So to me, this is all about the number and
who I have trust in. And these are the best
games because it is a game where you know, not
that my model can't figure this one out, but it's
like you got to throw it out. This is the
most human part of sports betting at this point, because

(48:48):
it is who do you trust? Which quarterback do you
trust at the end of this game? And you want
to dive into all the numbers, all the numbers. I'm
telling you people, I dove into all of it. It
favors a team that's six all pros on in Baltimore, Like,
there's a reason this team is an absolute juggernaut where
the Bills, you know, they were left for dead. That's
why again I want to give MVP to Josh Allen.
They don't have that across They don't have a bunch

(49:10):
of studs across the board. Right, They're a team that
has just been thrown together and it works like that.
I can't wait to go in the off season really
break down. It was the offensive line dominant for the
Bills or was that once again all Josh Allen? Because
how great they are now running down team's throats at
the end of the games. How Josh Allen never takes sacks.
It's just been incredible, how this nameless front line, how

(49:33):
this Bill's offense has done it. We're on the flip side,
Ravens are the same thing. They're a nameless offensive line.
They've been dominant all season. So yeah, this is, in
my opinion, probably the best game we're going to get
in the playoffs until the super Bowl. Like, it doesn't
get much better than this. These are two teams that
Jenny even said the top of the show, like no
one's talking about the Chiefs. Everyone's talking about Bills or
Ravens super Bowl at this point. So I love it.

(49:57):
This is this is my favorite part about betting playofootball.

Speaker 1 (49:59):
You are, I'm very fired up about this game. It's
the best and I am. It feels suckerish to be
betting the Ravens right now.

Speaker 2 (50:10):
Is the sucker has been winning this year, brother, I know,
don't let that scary off. I mean, being a sucker
has been paying big this year.

Speaker 1 (50:18):
Part of me feels like I'm waiting to bet this
game live because whoever scores the first touchdown the other
team is likely to be an underdog of more than one.

Speaker 2 (50:30):
But these teams are who they are. Chat where the Ravens,
I mean Stucky's bet. It feels like every week is
him giving us Ravens first half right, and it's been
me banging you over the head about it doesn't matter
what the score is. You take Josh Allen the second half.
He's just been it's been incredible. I think that's another
Evan stat, right is he fifteen to two Evans second

(50:50):
half against the spread. It's something insane like that this season.
So that to me is the biggest thing here where
It's like that's another reason I have confidence in Josh Allen.
If this game is Ravens thirteen, Bills ten and half, Chad,
I honestly think you're dead. You're dead if you have
the Ravens. If this is Ravens by two scores, if

(51:11):
they're up by ten and a half, I think that's your
best chance as somehow pulling off this win if you're
the Raves team. Because to me, if this is three
points or less, Josh Allen's gonna get them the second half.
He's just been so dominant and the adjustments defensively by
this Bills team has been great in the second half.
So that's why I do love this matchup for this
Bills team.

Speaker 1 (51:29):
Ravens are minus half a point first half.

Speaker 2 (51:34):
Can't beat that value. That's good value.

Speaker 1 (51:38):
That feels like a good one to play, right.

Speaker 2 (51:40):
Yeah, that's nice because I thought they would give them
the just the bump that Lamar gets in these first halfs, Like,
even if he's not a big favorite in the game,
that a lot of times they've just been hanging two
and a half three first half just because he's been
that dominant. So yeah, that's actually pretty interesting. Tell by
the books, they're given that number right, Yeah, fishy.

Speaker 1 (52:00):
It's fishy. Yeah, this one's tough. I don't have a
conclusion here. I'm glad you didn't make it. Simon says,
it's definitely.

Speaker 2 (52:08):
Time on it too, because I'm with you. This is
a tough game.

Speaker 1 (52:12):
Tough game, really tough game. What do you think of
the total? The total right now is fifty one and
a half feels high to me.

Speaker 2 (52:19):
I know under, so I don't want to give it away.
But once again, I'm on three unders and one over.
So yeah, last week I couldn't find it over. I
liked even even though Chad almost scared me off my
rams back because the lucky did get over. But yeah,
once once we got so many unders, I was like,
now this everyone's just so tight right now in the
playoffs and teams are just not forcing the ball, and

(52:41):
I feel like the refs have been calling a lot
of penalties. I'm know about you, but it feels like
the refs too have been more involved in a lot
of like not just holds, but a lot of stuff
making the offense is kind of stagnate. That's that feels
like we've had that with a bunch of games so far.
So yeah, this I couldn't. I know, it sounds stupid
because I'm betting over a fifty five and a half,
but this one fifty one and a half. I have.

(53:02):
This had forty eight and a half. So I think
there's a ton of value on the under here, especially
with these two teams that you know it's gonna be
cold as hell up in Buffalo Chaw. This's gonna be
a tight game with two run heavy teams. So I
do like the clock to be running. This to be
a low score.

Speaker 1 (53:16):
There was a I think it was the Bucks Commander's
game where even though it was close a lot of
the game and we had the Bucks, I didn't have
that usual nervous pit in my stomach. And I think
it's because the game just kept moving, like there weren't
a lot of penalties. They just kept playing. It was
really it was a really good game and really good football.

(53:37):
Really just enjoyed it. One of the rare moments when
I did watching the NFL this year, and I think
the fact there weren't a lot of penalties and it
just Kevi Roland was a big part of it.

Speaker 2 (53:48):
There's a good one, all right.

Speaker 1 (53:49):
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(54:33):
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Speaker 2 (55:00):
Love You.

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