Colin is joined by Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs and the college football national championship!
They dissect the huge advantages Big Ten schools have compared to SEC schools when it comes to athletics, why they’re both amazed at the Indiana Fever announcing they are building a new 90 million dollar stadium after Caitlin Clark’s rookie season, and their five favorite things in sports.
3:00 - Texans vs Chiefs
6:15 - Commanders vs Lions
10:00 - Eagles vs Rams
13:30 - Bills vs Ravens
22:00 - Ohio State vs Notre Dame
26:00 - Big Ten’s advantage over the SEC
35:00 - Indiana Fever building a new stadium
47:00 Five favorite things in sports
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!
#Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
All right, everybody, Chad Millman, I'm relishing in a rare
winning week. I went three and two. I've told you
I've had an absolutely terrible year betting. I do think
it's a little easier in the playoffs because you get
greater quarterbacks, and I kind of know, especially at home,
your better quarterbacks generally play pretty well at home. So
(00:34):
that said, Kansas City minus seven and a half, I
know there's a hook warm weather team on the road
after playing really well.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
CJ.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Stroud's home and a waste splits don't play in his favor,
Andy Reid and Abye, Kansas City's going to win the game.
The question is by how much. So I'm inclined to
say I had a winning week last week and I
lost one of those underdogs that everybody loved. And that's
what I did all year. So I do think the
(01:08):
weakest team left in the playoffs AFC or NFC is
not the Commanders because I think their quarterback, maybe better
than Andrew Lucke is a rookie. Is probably Houston on
the road in cold weather. So I know it's wrong,
but I'm going to take the Chiefs minus seven and
a half.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
What say you.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Yeah, at seven and a half, I think it's the
sharp side. At eight and a half, you're starting to
get a little bit of interest in the Texans. And
what you just said is exactly what the wise guys
are seeing too. They're more interested in betting the Commanders,
let's say, is big underdogs, than on betting than betting
on the Texans right now. And there's one thing that
(01:49):
you have to consider, which is Patrick Mahomes as a
favorite of three or more generally has been a losing bet.
Patrick Mahomes as a seven plus point favorite fifty two
and five straight up, so he generally wins those games.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
They're going to win the game.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
Twenty two thirty two and three against the spread, that's
forty one percent. Normally, I will not give you the
exact numbers. I'll just give you the percentage because I'm
not going to give you anything that is a data
set of two.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
Right.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
I'm going to give you a sample size that is
relevant so people understand we're not just sort of giving
out really small numbers to make ourselves look good. Forty
one percent against the spread on a sample size that
is twenty two plus thirty two, what is that fifth
and three fifty seven, right, So that's a decent sized
number at a point spread of seven plus.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
So dig a little deeper because.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
Don't forget this game is going to be played in very,
very cold weather. Okay, Patrick mahomes as a favorite of
seven plus points in weather under forty degree z, he's
ten and six against the spread. Under thirty degrees, he's
four and one against the spread.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
So what I just tell you?
Speaker 1 (03:08):
I just told you his record was twenty two and
thirty two and three against spread as a seven plus
point favorite. Nearly fifty percent of those wins against the
spread have come in cold weather. So now all of
a sudden it changes to form me a little bit,
makes me feel more comfortable betting on the Chiefs. So
the wise guys have been betting on the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (03:27):
They bet this up.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
It's about fifty to fifty in terms of the the feelings,
the expectations on either side. At eight and a half,
I still like the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Here, Commanders plus nine and a half is the side
to me. A side note my favorite part, Detroit's going
to win the game. But since they have a pocket
quarterback and they don't have a hyper mobile quarterback on
the roster. The advantage here to playing against Jayden Daniels
in this game is who, however, they face next and
(04:01):
in the Super Bowl is likely Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson,
Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. So this is a really
good test case on how they defend a running quarterback
because they don't have one on their roster. So I
think it's instructive. This is a really good game for Detroit.
I think they'll win the game. Jayden Daniels, however, has
been so good and so good late. Now if it's
(04:21):
a blowout, and that's certainly possible, we know one team's
going to blow.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
The other out.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
But the Commanders are the rare team in a rebuild
that's actually great late. That's usually veteran teams and veteran
staffs very rarely.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Are you like the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
You'd be surprised if they were great in close games
because they have a new staff and kind of a
new culture. I would take the points here. I think
it's going to be a Detroit win. But if the
Commanders get the opening snap, take it and score, I'm
like game on sixteen and a half points. I'm Okay
with that, Sharper scare.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Well, there's no consensus here, and this is going to
be a little bit of a theme today. The Lions
have been so dominant against the spread during the Dan
Campbell and Jared Goff era.
Speaker 4 (05:14):
When I say.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Dominant, I mean their three and four year records against
the spread are the best in the Super Bowl era.
Jared Goff indoors thirty four and thirteen against the spread.
This is a team that doesn't matter what the number is,
they cover the number. They're eighteen to two and one
(05:37):
against the spread against teams averaging more than twenty four
points per game. The Commander's average twenty eight points per game.
There are pockets of professional betters who like the Commanders
for exactly what you just said. They have won their
last five games on the last play of the game.
(05:57):
I don't mean good comeback, last two minutes, I mean
literally last play of the game. If you break it down,
you see, Okay, well, that was against New Orleans and
they kind of underperformed and needed a miracle to win
at the end.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
The next one that was against Philly.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Jalen Hurts got hurt in the beginning of the game
and they needed a miracle to come back against a
team that was a little bit banged up and didn't
have its quarterback playing for him right the next game
Atlanta and the coach Raheem Morris for the Falcons screwed
up the timeouts and took the Falcons out of position
(06:35):
to win that game. And then they won in a
last minute, last second play against Dallas in a game
that didn't really matter. And then last week with some
flukiness from the Baker Mayfield fumble and then the field
goal kicking the upright, So you can look at it
either way and say, yeah, they're great in the end,
or yeah they're getting lucky against inferior teams or getting
(06:56):
fluky plays at the end. So you're one hundred per
right in that if they score early, this is a
game that you can expect to be a shootout, expect
to go over the fifty five and a half, and
because sixteen and a halves a lot to cover when
your defense for the Lions still isn't that great and
(07:16):
it's going to be playing against a very good running quarterback.
But I can't give you like a strong opinion on
the wise guys.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
So my favorite pick last week was Philly a grint's
Green Bay to cover, and I don't even think Philly
played well, and they did it. I like this game
Philly minus six as well for about twenty reasons. Number
one warm weather team that tends to perform very well
on extra rest. Now it's short rest flight across the
(07:45):
country in cold weather. Kyraen Williams is hurt. They played
a perfect football game largely against Minnesota. They did earlier
this year against Buffalo. How they look the next week.
Even in the professional ranks, you do not play perfect
ball back to back weeks. And when McVeigh has extra time,
it's like watching it's symphonic. I mean, they're just the
(08:06):
first play of the games, like Puka twenty seven yards,
You're like, yep, it's gonna be a rough one for
the Vikings Philadelphia at home. You can always coach a
team more harshly when they win and play like crap.
I think one of the strengths of the Eagles that
had previously previous year's been a weakness is corner so
(08:29):
Puka nakua. This Rams team is very pukah centric. They
match up well with them. I also think the Rams
offensive line in pass protection can be very inconsistent. They
have a rookie center, a seventh round pick six or
seventh from Arkansas against Jalen Carter who is virtually unblockable.
For twenty reasons, I like Philadelphia minus six to cover
(08:52):
Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Yeah, totally sharp.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
I think you're finding real consensus here for a lot
of the reasons you just said. And if you look
at that game last week, in reality, it probably should
have ended twenty nine to ten. Sequon took a dive
to end the game and at twenty to ten. But
everything you're saying, and from front to back, even without
(09:17):
Nakobe Dean, this Eagles defense is so fierce and what
they did to the Packers in making them look bad
is the opposite of what the Vikings did to Matthew
Stafford and that offensive line that the Vikings had made.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
The Rams defense look like the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
The Rams defense is not the Eagles, and the Eagles
offensive line is not the Vikings offensive line.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
This is a.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Team that is so completely dominant at the line of
scrimmage on both sides. The wise guys are wondering why
this isn't a little bit higher, and they'd betted up
to seven. To be honest, if you look back to
when these teams played earlier.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Than Eagles totally dominated the second.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Half, destroyed them. The line in that game was three. Okay,
the Eagles are favored by three. Now the Eagles are
favored by six. Even if you say, okay, I'm discounting
the home field advantage for the Rams and it's really
not worth that much, and then you translate all that
like home field is usually worth three. Right, So in reality,
(10:22):
what the bookmakers would be thinking is, well, shouldn't the
Eagles be favored by nine? Right? Because it's they're three
on the road at a neutral field, they're six.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
At home, they're nine.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Say that the Rams at home is not worth anything,
it still isn't worth zero, So there's a little bit
of value here. This line should probably be seven. I
would not be surprised if it gets there. Wise, guys
will definitely be betting it at six.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
So I like the Bills plus one and a half
at homes. A. Flowers is the only Ravens player who
has not practiced. In fact, it's been a while since
he did practice, so if he plays, he'll be You know,
this is kind of walking on the field and going
I understand the Bills run game. The Bill's defense is
susceptible to the run game, and I don't doubt that
(11:16):
Baltimore will have some success. Whether they have success in
the red zone, we'll see. And there have been teams
that beat the Bills. The Rams played a perfect football game.
But this Buffalo team really between an elite offensive play caller,
left tackle, quarterback, running back. I really like their wide
(11:38):
receiving antight end group. You may not have a superstar,
but it's B plus stuff. I think you know, there's
a sense that Lamar gets tens in big games. Lamar
also doesn't like cold weather, and it's going to be
twenty four degrees. I don't get the line getting Josh
Allen's best team at home plus points. I know what
(12:00):
the analytics say, it just feels wrong. I think the
Bills are going to win the Super Bowl. So wow, yeah,
So I'm taking Buffalo here, Sharper square.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
So the line opened Ravens plus two, and it moved
very quickly with wise guy money to Ravens minus one.
It was less than twenty four hours before the Ravens
went from underdogs to favorites. It got up to one
(12:31):
and a half. The wise guys have started buying the
Bills back from one and a half, it's down to one.
In a lot of places, like the wise guys like
generally whoever the underdog is in this matchups, that's what
they're betting. So if you like the Bills, you can
get him as an underdog. Get him as an underdog.
I am I would not. I don't like either side
(12:54):
in this game. If I have to bet, I'm gonna
wait as long as I can try to get the
Ravens at pick and hope this line comes back down.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
As much as Lamar doesn't like playing in.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
The cold, he's still succeed He's four to zero games
when it's less, when it's thirty degrees or less, He's
twenty six and nine against the spread as a favorite
of three or less or as an underdog. I get
what Josh Allen is. I think Lamar Jackson is the MVP.
This is a more well rounded team. I think you're
(13:26):
playing with fire if you're betting the Bills.
Speaker 4 (13:28):
But the wise guys are liking him as an underdog.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
But there's also plenty of wise guys who still like
the Ravens to win this game.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
NFL playoffs. We're talking about NFL playoffs. You bet we are.
Get in on the action of DraftKings Sportsbook, an official
sports betting partner of the NFL. Scoring touchdowns is a
key to winning in the NFL playoffs, and the key
tou scoring big is betting on him at DraftKings, the
number one place to bet touchdowns. If you're ready to
place your first bet, make it really simple. A player
scoring a touchdown, go to Draftking Sportsbooks app, download it,
(14:02):
make your pick. Here's another reason to watch your favorite
players crush it on the playoffs. If you're a new customer,
you bet five bucks. That's it, five bucks, get two
hundred in bonus bets instantly by betting just five bucks,
So score big Draftking Sportsbook during the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
Download the app.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Use the code colin c l I N That will
get you two hundred bucks in bonus bet. So if
you want two hundred dollars in bonus bets, you got
to put in the code colin only on Draftking Sportsbook.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
The Crown is yours.
Speaker 5 (14:28):
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in New York
called eight seven seven eight ope and why, or text
hope and WY four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut,
help is available for a problem gambling called eight eight
eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit
CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill
Casino when resorting Kansas twenty one on over agent eligibility
varies by jurisdiction, Void and Ontario. Bonus bets expire one
(14:51):
hundred and sixty eight hours efterichuins four. Additional terms and
responsible gaming resources see DKNG dot co slash audio.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
So, whether it's young fighters or young football teams, there
is something about youth that confidence can ebb and flow
based on your most recent date, success, fight game, Ohio
State's in this. I don't know vo Texas is the
(15:24):
right space, but they are on fire. Their self belief
is unbelievable. They are making good teams look awful. They
made Oregon look like like, you know, a third tier team.
They humiliated physically Tennessee, and I mean again, Texas was
(15:46):
arguably for most of the year, everybody's sort of belief
until they've lost to Georgia for the second time. Texas
was the team and you watch them line up with
Ohio State and you're like, yeah, nil money, and see
who spent the most money. It's Ohio State. I also
think chip Kelly has given Ohio State an advantage in
(16:08):
the NIL and NFL playoff like tournament, where it's a
great team after great team after great team. You hide
some stuff, you unveil some stuff later. I think what
they've done to their offense, the pacing, the tempo, delivering
kind of new sets and looks. I think it's a
really smart football team. And this is the first time
(16:29):
in college football you've had an NFL style playoff, and
I think Chip Kelly has helped. Notre Dame has one
five star athlete. I do think the game will be
close in the first half because I think Marcus Freeman
is my Sean mcvayh in college. I think culture and belief.
But you know, Sean McVay in his career has lost
when he has faced better teams. When he faced the
Niners for years, when all these Shanahan, when Shanahan's players
(16:52):
were all in their prime, he had great game plans
and by the third quarter late, you're like San Francisco's
got better players. I I love Marcus Freeman. I think
they're outmanned here. I think it gets I think it's
a very competitive, low scoring game early. I don't think
it is late. I'll take the buck guys minus eight
and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4 (17:12):
Well.
Speaker 1 (17:12):
At this point, there's no real dominance on either side.
Right the line opened at nine and a half, got
be down to eight and a half. It's kind of
in that no man's land between seven and ten. The
real interest from professional betters is on the under right
(17:33):
now in this game. I think it's at forty five
and a half right now. These defenses, as much as
the buck Eys offense is so good, Notre Dame's defense
has been phenomenal and Al Golden has been creating incredible
game plans, and if you look at sort of every
single metric, they're just about even. Either one is number
(17:55):
one at one and the other one is number five,
or vice versa. The only differences are Ohio State is
not nearly as good as stopping teams on third down
and Ohio State is not nearly as good at converting
turnovers as a defensive team.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
But on the flip.
Speaker 1 (18:12):
Side, Notre Dame has things where they're not as good
so they're not as good at getting sacks as Ohio State.
So there's definitely this game feels like a defensive battle
and the wise guys are looking at the under. There
is a lot of data backup what you like about this.
There have been twenty four national title games in the
(18:34):
BCS era, yeah favorites, Twelve of those have been won
by the favorites by more than a touchdown. So if
you do like Ohio State, it is likely they will
cover this game. So if you're thinking that they're going
to win, bet them to cover, because that's usually how
those things go with the favorites.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
International Title game for college.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Football, I will tell you though, it's funny about college football.
There are some suggesting that the SEC's run is over,
and then others are saying it's a one off. But
there is some advantage to this. If the NIL never
has a cap. Schools like Alabama are begging boosters like
it's a bake sale to give money. Notre Dame's got
(19:20):
more money than SEC. Schools outside of Texas, Ohio State, Michigan,
Penn State, a lot of these Oregon, a lot of
these Northern tier teams. There's a lot of CEOs from
those schools, and there's.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
A lot of money in the North.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
And when Alabama is basically saying we need help one
hundred dollars fifty bucks, all help, that's a car wash,
that's a plea for help. And you're getting that from
some of the sort of SEC fan bases. Which is
one of the great things about the SEC has been
the tribal nature of it. The Big Ten, although there
(19:58):
is some parochialism to it. Big ten graduates go to
the coast and they make big money. SEC graduates largely
stand the footprint of the South to a large degree.
Big ten graduates they go to La San Francisco, Seattle,
Tech Jobs, Boston, Minneapolis, New York, DC, overseas and they
make great money. And I just look at like Notre Dame.
(20:18):
I'm like, I know, like six.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
Notre Dame guys, they're all rolling in it.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
They're all doing well. So I think there's something to
be said about there are some financial realities. And this
is not to say there's not money in the South.
George has got a lot of money. But when Alabama's
coming out and begging for it, it's like wow. And
Alabama is sort of the Bentley, you know, it's sort
(20:42):
of the standard of the South. I do think SEC
will still be the deepest conference for a while. But
remember this year, Washington was in a rebuild, USC was
in a rebuild, Michigan was in a rebuild. They're not
in rebuilds next year. And Penn State brings everybody back,
(21:03):
and Ohio State's Ohio State and Oregon with their money
is Oregon, I think, I think it's inches, not feet now.
I think these I think these conferences are going to
go toe to toe Ohio State. I mean, we don't
even count Oregon because they got blown out by Ohio State.
I think Oregon would have beaten everybody except Georgia in
the SEC.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
I'm so glad you brought this up. I saw that
same story about Alabama, and I wasn't shocked at all
to see that they were having a hard time withinn
Iow money. And granted, everyone should take this with a
grain of salt. Where two East coast West Coast media
(21:46):
dudes who have not spent an extraordinary amount of time
living in the South. But I think your theory and
your thesis is spot on, and we're seeing it in
different ways. I don't think of the University of Miami
as a southern school. The University of Miami is a
(22:07):
school where a lot of people with a lot of
money from the East Coast, from really wealthy communities in
the Midwest send their kids to school, and those kids
then go out. Maybe they live in Miami, but they
usually go back to their hometown, whether it's New York
or Chicago, and they end up working in huge corporate environments,
making it a ton of money. They can funnel a
(22:28):
lot of money in NIL for Miami. Where Carson Beck
is going right, Think about Duke Duke in basketball, Duke
hass some of the wealthiest alumni in the country. How
to Duke get money so quickly for NIL? Partially because
their program is amazing and that's where they're going to focus.
But they're getting NIL money for football too, And so
(22:48):
I think you're one hundred percent right. NIL is going
to even the scales a little bit, and it's not
going to be one of those things where, oh my god,
Alabama's going to get so much better. They didn't get
so much better, and now we're seeing what's happening. It's
teams that have huge alumni networks that are going to
get so much better.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
I agree a one hundred.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
Percent, And think about this. I don't think people realize this.
Big ten schools are much bigger than SEC schools. Wisconsin
forty thousand, Ohio state forty five thousand. SEC schools may
fill their stadiums, but these Penn State. I mean, if
you folks, if you're listening to this, go look it up.
Big ten schools often have double the kids, and they
(23:31):
spread out over the country or internationally. I know a
lot of SEC kids that do go to New York City.
Speaker 3 (23:37):
I'm not saying they don't.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
But whereas the South economically there's a lot of jobs,
the South is still growing. The Midwest isn't necessarily growing
and has bad weather, so a lot of Big ten
students flee to better weather. Whereas a lot of SEC
students say, like, listen, it's I like the winners down
(23:59):
here of Atlanta. You know, my friends, my family so
and this is just anecdotal, but in my life, the
one city SEC students go to outside of the South
is New York City. You know a lot of financial majors, yep,
economy majors, accounting majors or whatever. But I do think
(24:19):
that the fact that the South, the economy is pretty good.
In the South, cities like Nashville are fun, cool and growing,
Atlanta same thing. Not a lot of places outside of
Chicago in the Midwest are economic powers. I mean a
lot of Indies and Saint Louis and and so a
lot of big ten kids they flee after they graduate Detroit,
(24:42):
you know, a lot of these kids they want to go,
they want to go to school there.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
Then I want to live there.
Speaker 1 (24:47):
I think, Well, Number one, let me tell you that
Penn State student body. I think it's close to sixty
seventy thousand people, like it is a massive student body, right,
it is much much bigger than when you're going to
get in an SEC school. Don't disagree with you at
all about kids wanting to go to the SEC schools
(25:07):
and then leaving the SEC schools. Right I'm going through
it right now. It is so hard to get into
SEC schools. Georgia, Auburn, Florida. Those are some of the
most competitive state schools in the country right now.
Speaker 4 (25:22):
I'm seeing it.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
And partially it is because kids from the Northeast, like
my kid, kids from the Midwest, they're tired of the weather,
they're tired of the weather, and they're seeing it on
social media every single.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
And the girls are beautiful and it's your everybody's wearing
sun dresses all year.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
Everyone's going to football games, having the time of their life,
partying in the grove, and they're like, why would I
want to go to somewhere where it's gray eight months out.
Speaker 4 (25:48):
Of the year.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
Of the top twenty three school enrollments, thirteen are in
the Big ten.
Speaker 4 (25:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (25:58):
Yeah, so that's almost the whole Big ten. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
So you know, remember USC's private, they're Big ten. Now
Northwestern's private, they're big ten. So of the sixteen, two
of them are private, small privates. Now Vanderbilt's also private,
so I'm sure they're enrollment Smaller privates usually are. But no,
I think I think our points are valid. That listen,
(26:21):
if you grow up in warm weather, it is hard
to go cold. If you grow up in cold weather,
it's much easier to go warm.
Speaker 1 (26:30):
Yeah, this is a fat It'll be fascinating to see
how this develops over the next five years, right because
or even longer, because we are seeing so many kids
from the East Coast and the Midwest who are going
to these sec schools, and over say a generation from now,
(26:53):
as these kids maybe decide to stay in the Southeast,
is there more money in corporate culture? Is there more
NIO money that gets funneled into these SEC schools that
otherwise would have gone to a Michigan that would have
gone to an Ohio state, that would have gone to
a Penn state.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
Because those are the places where those kids were going
and they're no longer headed there.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
And so there's a lot more corporate money that can
flow into the SEC schools to your point from earlier,
But it's going to take it might take.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
A while, right, So I was now all I know
is here's something else that jumped out to me before
we go, is that I always love kind of where
sports is going, not just where it is. And so
college football, I think between transfer portal ANDIL and playoff
(27:43):
has made a lot of changes, and I tend to
love change in sports and where it's going. I think
college football is in a really cool place. I just
need some guardrails on the NIL and transfer portal. And
I think the twelve team playoff will become fourteen or sixteen.
But did you see last couple of days when it
was announced that Caitlin Clark's Indiana Fever are spending ninety
(28:06):
million dollars on a new arena, And so there's something
about the WNBA. It's a league that got very defensive
when you suggested that Caitlin Clark was driving a lot
of their ratings growth, almost all of it. What does
it tell you that a WNBA team, this is a
league that hasn't made a profit, is spending ninety million
(28:28):
in Indiana on a basketball arena and it's the right
move the year after Caitlin Clark arrives. If you don't
think she has economic superpowers, you're not paying attention. That
is nothing to against any other WNBA player. The league
is better she is. She is.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
A super nova, She is a comet.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Why would anyone ever get defensive about saying when someone
says that their success is defined by this singular moment,
this singular person. Did the NBA and the Bulls really
suffer because Michael Jordan came out of nowhere and took
(29:15):
the mantle from Larry Bird and Doctor j and turned
the Bulls into a global franchise. Are the owners of
the Warriors thinking of themselves?
Speaker 4 (29:27):
Man?
Speaker 1 (29:28):
It was so much more fun before Steph Curry, when
our franchise was worth about three hundred and fifty million
dollars instead of these seven billion dollars it's worth today
with our brand new arena, the Indiana Fever, the Warriors
with their arena, they're doing the exactly the right thing.
They're taking advantage of the moment in time when they
have everybody's interest, can funnel a lot of revenue into
(29:53):
new projects and get attention for it, and then all
of a sudden it makes everything they're doing more valuable
down the line. They're using Caitlin Clark to build a
generationally great franchise and help the league grow because there
is so much interesting wind sports right now.
Speaker 4 (30:09):
It's a brilliant, brilliant idea.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
By the way, I had Adam Silver on for kind
of a wide ranging thirty minute interview this week.
Speaker 3 (30:17):
He is really really good.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
He's really good, and most of what he says I
gave him a platform for it, and I agree with it.
But I got into this thing where he said it,
and I thought about it and I was driving into
work today. Is that, you know, he and I think
the league is saying, listen, we've had six champs in
six years, and I think what has happened.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
We're a much more distracted nation.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
A lot of it is we're on our phones more
than we watch TV, and that it's hard to get
us to watch stuff that's not special. You have so
many platforms, so many streamers, so many networks, so many
cable channels, so many subscriptions to so many different platforms
that you to get me to watch something. And I'm
a sportscaster, there's got to be a special. A UFC
fight on a Satdaturday is special. College football playoffs special,
(31:02):
World Cup special, Olympic special, NFL once a week special,
Caitlin Clark games, occasionally special, O Taani playoff games special.
All of those that I just mentioned were rewarded this
year with big ratings. I think hockey, most of baseball,
in the NBA, in volume sports. I think it's going
(31:24):
to be increasingly difficult for the rest of my lifetime
to get ratings in the regular season unless you create
special This is what Fox did to baseball. They said,
how about a game in a cornfield? How about Mets
phillies in Europe? You need more special events. We're becoming
an event society and the dynasties feel special. When Kevin
(31:50):
Durant went to the Warriors, though it felt lobsided. Their
games were events Shaq and Kobe events in the NBA,
now is the events are maybe the finals a Nick's
Celtic Eastern Conference Final would feel like an event. When
(32:10):
you combine load management where many stars miss big games,
with the new reality of a distracted populace, I think
I think baseball, hockey and the NBA are going to
struggle in the regular seasons going forward.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
Well, the NBA is trying to fix that right with
the NBA Cup, the midseason tournament and the NBA Cup,
trying to make something that feels more like an event,
and to me, those games are a little bit more intense.
Speaker 4 (32:39):
I love the NBA. I love NBA playoffs.
Speaker 1 (32:44):
You talk about Knicks Celtic's Eastern Conference Finals, that is
must setv the intensity level, the level of defense, and
I think, obviously, and I know Adam talked about this
with you on the show, and the three point shooting,
like there is a level of intensity that is missing
from the regular season and trying to create that with
(33:05):
the NBA Cup is one way to do it, but
it's also hard when you don't have a dynasty. And
I am a massive, massive fan of dynasties. I want
sports dominance. I want to see history. I want to
see teams do it again and again and again, and
I want to see them annihilate their opponents and I
(33:26):
want to do I want to see them do things
that can be compared in history, not just on a
season a season basis, And it's getting harder and harder
to do that with the NBA. And also, look the
best athletes, Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembinyamo, they are Shay Gilders, Alexander,
They are so much fun to watch. Only one of
(33:50):
them really has anything close to the charisma of is
Steph Curry, Anthony Edwards of a lebron James Anthony Edwards.
But he's still growing up and like he's not connecting
with the fans in the same way that these guys did. Right,
there's something that isn't that isn't translating from fans, even
though I think he's phenomenal and he's so much fun.
(34:12):
That's the challenge is they need they need dominance right now.
And the Celtics, you know they're not dominant. Jason Tatum
isn't a guy that fans are getting behind Jalen Brown.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
The word the word special. The Celtics won the title
because they had the greatest depth one through eight. They
were easily the best team in the league. Tatum was
disappointing in big games. In fact, Jalen Brown was getting
the MVP. So even on that team, like Shaq and
Kobe both felt generational. Brown and Tatum feel really good.
So our championship team now, even even on Cleveland, Donovan
(34:46):
Mitchell's very good. We don't think he's Jordan or Kobe
or the Braun or Steph and so right now, Luca
is great, but his game isn't flashy. It's like Dirk,
it's not a flashy game. I'll give you this question.
(35:08):
You get five things in sports. Everything else leaves, So
mine would be NFL, college football, sports, gambling, NBA playoffs, UFC.
Speaker 3 (35:22):
You can't count.
Speaker 2 (35:24):
World Cup in the Olympics, those are every four years.
You have to go through all of sports. You get
to keep five things, NFL, college football, gambling, NBA playoffs, UFC.
Speaker 3 (35:36):
I like the World couple lot too. What would your
five be? What would you get rid of? What would
your five, and I say.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
This, I loved the baseball playoffs. I loved it this year,
especially in the National League.
Speaker 4 (35:49):
I would add World Series.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
I would take off UFC because I love playoff baseball.
It is so intense, it is every pitch, and it's
the same context we're just talking about. During the season,
I'm not going to watch that many baseball games. I'm
going to keep track of what's going on. I'm a
(36:15):
stat geek, so I love reading about how teams are
performing and how certain players are developing.
Speaker 4 (36:22):
But I'm not going to.
Speaker 1 (36:23):
Watch a mid season game with the same intensity and
the same joy that I'm watching a World Series game.
Even the past World Series that was essentially a blowout,
That last game was so intense and you couldn't turn
it off no matter how late it was going to go.
I feel the same way about the NBA playoffs. I
(36:44):
would not get rid of anything for the NBA. I
love the NBA all year round. I'm going to watch
the thunder and the Calves, and even though nobody knows
who any of those players are, I love the game
of basketball that they're all playing and the way they
passed amongst themselves I think is amazing. Obviously, I'm not
gonna get rid of sports betting. That to me has
(37:05):
to be number one. Sports betting. You know, sports betting
is the invisible hand influencing the current and future state
of sports, I think more than anything else. And so
that to me is the umbrella that all of this
lives under the NFL. I wouldn't get rid of a
second of the NFL. I cannot live without it. I
(37:28):
love it so much.
Speaker 4 (37:30):
And college football. Here's my problem with college football.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
The games are just too long, Like there are I
don't need four and a half hours of college football games.
And I think they're great, they're fun, but I can't
sit for that long.
Speaker 4 (37:45):
So if it's going to stay, I need.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
The reason the NFL is king and so much greater
than college football is because it has a commissioner and
it's constantly tweaking. It's the same reason UFC is better
than boxing it has a central voice and is constantly tweaking.
Is that college football is like a really good product,
poorly run. I mean, essentially, the twelve team playoff happened,
(38:10):
and Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC and the PAC
twelve folding and four teams moving into the Big Ten.
All that happened because Fox and ESPN wanted it to happen,
So that's it. They just got tired of college football
wasting so many monetization opportunities that Fox and ESPN said, guys,
we're going to take it over. Yeah, And that's what
(38:31):
Dana White said, Boxing, You're ridiculous. I'm going to create something.
The Fertida family and Dana White and so college football
and boxing, which I love growing up, have just been
poorly managed my entire life. And so Dana White and
TV networks changed both and for the better. I mean,
college football now like a twelve team playoff.
Speaker 3 (38:52):
You're like, what, why aren't we and it's not even done.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
They're going to keep tweaking it. But why didn't this
happen twenty five thirty years ago.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
It's interesting the way you talk about UFC because I
know the sport well, you know, I wrote Chuck Liddell's
autobiography with him, and I've watched more UFC fights than
I can count.
Speaker 4 (39:18):
I would still take.
Speaker 1 (39:20):
A heavyweight boxing match over UFC with the pomp and
circumstance any day, like Lennox Lewis, Evander Holyfield Tyson Evander.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
I used to be like that and Dana White. I
asked Dana about that because Dana grew up with boxing
and so did I. I used to be like that,
and I still love a great boxing match, but they're
so infrequent now, there's like one every other year. I mean,
you got you know, Logan Paul is like one of
the attractions. Hey, let's put Connor McGregor and boxing line.
Speaker 1 (39:54):
Yeah, it's gimmicky. Now it's not the same thing. But
I'm saying historically, if I could have back a brilliant
heavyweight boxer, or if I could even have Floyd Mayweather
and Manny Pacquiao in their prime, I would rather have
that than UFC.
Speaker 4 (40:15):
It's just more interesting to me. I just like it more.
Speaker 1 (40:18):
I'm not anti UFC, but if I could have boxing
at its height, I would take boxing at its height
over UFC at its height.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
Yeah. I used to be like that. I'm not anymore.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
And I also think I mean, I'm in the UFC
business at the volume.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
And the one thing I think UFC is so brilliant
they picked today. It's Saturday night. You know what you're getting.
You don't get bad cards. You get either sensational cards
or good cards. Boxing was a coin flip whether you
were pissed off at the end of the night for
buying the pay per view and selling nothing for three hours,
(40:56):
by the way, and then the fight would start an
hour and a half late. It was like watching Guns
and Roses going to a concert. They're going to hit
the stage two hours late. Just just smoke another bawl
and enjoy your night, dude.
Speaker 1 (41:08):
I remember getting together with my buddies in high school
and one guy would buy the Tyson fight and we'd
be all sitting around. We'd be jacked. We're like, this
is what we're doing tonight. It's going to be amazing.
We don't have to be going we don't have to
go look for a party. We were such losers.
Speaker 4 (41:23):
We weren't going to find a party anyway.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
As you're like, this is it, We're in We're doing
this tonight, and then Tyson would knock the guy out
in thirty seconds, where we're like, ah, fuck, what do
we do now. We'd get in some guy's minivan, cruise
around town, listening to the Smiths and hoping we can
find something to do.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
Chad Millman Sharper square All odds provided by DraftKings. He's
a co host of the Favorites.
Speaker 4 (41:46):
Good seeing you body, Good to see you too, brother,
Have a great weekend. Go football.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
The volume
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
All right, everybody, Chad Millman, I'm relishing in a rare
winning week. I went three and two. I've told you
I've had an absolutely terrible year betting. I do think
it's a little easier in the playoffs because you get
greater quarterbacks, and I kind of know, especially at home,
your better quarterbacks generally play pretty well at home. So
(00:34):
that said, Kansas City minus seven and a half, I
know there's a hook warm weather team on the road
after playing really well.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
CJ.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Stroud's home and a waste splits don't play in his favor,
Andy Reid and Abye, Kansas City's going to win the game.
The question is by how much. So I'm inclined to
say I had a winning week last week and I
lost one of those underdogs that everybody loved. And that's
what I did all year. So I do think the
(01:08):
weakest team left in the playoffs AFC or NFC is
not the Commanders because I think their quarterback, maybe better
than Andrew Lucke is a rookie. Is probably Houston on
the road in cold weather. So I know it's wrong,
but I'm going to take the Chiefs minus seven and
a half.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
What say you.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Yeah, at seven and a half, I think it's the
sharp side. At eight and a half, you're starting to
get a little bit of interest in the Texans. And
what you just said is exactly what the wise guys
are seeing too. They're more interested in betting the Commanders,
let's say, is big underdogs, than on betting than betting
on the Texans right now. And there's one thing that
(01:49):
you have to consider, which is Patrick Mahomes as a
favorite of three or more generally has been a losing bet.
Patrick Mahomes as a seven plus point favorite fifty two
and five straight up, so he generally wins those games.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
They're going to win the game.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
Twenty two thirty two and three against the spread, that's
forty one percent. Normally, I will not give you the
exact numbers. I'll just give you the percentage because I'm
not going to give you anything that is a data
set of two.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
Right.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
I'm going to give you a sample size that is
relevant so people understand we're not just sort of giving
out really small numbers to make ourselves look good. Forty
one percent against the spread on a sample size that
is twenty two plus thirty two, what is that fifth
and three fifty seven, right, So that's a decent sized
number at a point spread of seven plus.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
So dig a little deeper because.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
Don't forget this game is going to be played in very,
very cold weather. Okay, Patrick mahomes as a favorite of
seven plus points in weather under forty degree z, he's
ten and six against the spread. Under thirty degrees, he's
four and one against the spread.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
So what I just tell you?
Speaker 1 (03:08):
I just told you his record was twenty two and
thirty two and three against spread as a seven plus
point favorite. Nearly fifty percent of those wins against the
spread have come in cold weather. So now all of
a sudden it changes to form me a little bit,
makes me feel more comfortable betting on the Chiefs. So
the wise guys have been betting on the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (03:27):
They bet this up.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
It's about fifty to fifty in terms of the the feelings,
the expectations on either side. At eight and a half,
I still like the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Here, Commanders plus nine and a half is the side
to me. A side note my favorite part, Detroit's going
to win the game. But since they have a pocket
quarterback and they don't have a hyper mobile quarterback on
the roster. The advantage here to playing against Jayden Daniels
in this game is who, however, they face next and
(04:01):
in the Super Bowl is likely Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson,
Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. So this is a really
good test case on how they defend a running quarterback
because they don't have one on their roster. So I
think it's instructive. This is a really good game for Detroit.
I think they'll win the game. Jayden Daniels, however, has
been so good and so good late. Now if it's
(04:21):
a blowout, and that's certainly possible, we know one team's
going to blow.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
The other out.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
But the Commanders are the rare team in a rebuild
that's actually great late. That's usually veteran teams and veteran
staffs very rarely.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Are you like the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
You'd be surprised if they were great in close games
because they have a new staff and kind of a
new culture. I would take the points here. I think
it's going to be a Detroit win. But if the
Commanders get the opening snap, take it and score, I'm
like game on sixteen and a half points. I'm Okay
with that, Sharper scare.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Well, there's no consensus here, and this is going to
be a little bit of a theme today. The Lions
have been so dominant against the spread during the Dan
Campbell and Jared Goff era.
Speaker 4 (05:14):
When I say.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Dominant, I mean their three and four year records against
the spread are the best in the Super Bowl era.
Jared Goff indoors thirty four and thirteen against the spread.
This is a team that doesn't matter what the number is,
they cover the number. They're eighteen to two and one
(05:37):
against the spread against teams averaging more than twenty four
points per game. The Commander's average twenty eight points per game.
There are pockets of professional betters who like the Commanders
for exactly what you just said. They have won their
last five games on the last play of the game.
(05:57):
I don't mean good comeback, last two minutes, I mean
literally last play of the game. If you break it down,
you see, Okay, well, that was against New Orleans and
they kind of underperformed and needed a miracle to win
at the end.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
The next one that was against Philly.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Jalen Hurts got hurt in the beginning of the game
and they needed a miracle to come back against a
team that was a little bit banged up and didn't
have its quarterback playing for him right the next game
Atlanta and the coach Raheem Morris for the Falcons screwed
up the timeouts and took the Falcons out of position
(06:35):
to win that game. And then they won in a
last minute, last second play against Dallas in a game
that didn't really matter. And then last week with some
flukiness from the Baker Mayfield fumble and then the field
goal kicking the upright, So you can look at it
either way and say, yeah, they're great in the end,
or yeah they're getting lucky against inferior teams or getting
(06:56):
fluky plays at the end. So you're one hundred per
right in that if they score early, this is a
game that you can expect to be a shootout, expect
to go over the fifty five and a half, and
because sixteen and a halves a lot to cover when
your defense for the Lions still isn't that great and
(07:16):
it's going to be playing against a very good running quarterback.
But I can't give you like a strong opinion on
the wise guys.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
So my favorite pick last week was Philly a grint's
Green Bay to cover, and I don't even think Philly
played well, and they did it. I like this game
Philly minus six as well for about twenty reasons. Number
one warm weather team that tends to perform very well
on extra rest. Now it's short rest flight across the
(07:45):
country in cold weather. Kyraen Williams is hurt. They played
a perfect football game largely against Minnesota. They did earlier
this year against Buffalo. How they look the next week.
Even in the professional ranks, you do not play perfect
ball back to back weeks. And when McVeigh has extra time,
it's like watching it's symphonic. I mean, they're just the
(08:06):
first play of the games, like Puka twenty seven yards,
You're like, yep, it's gonna be a rough one for
the Vikings Philadelphia at home. You can always coach a
team more harshly when they win and play like crap.
I think one of the strengths of the Eagles that
had previously previous year's been a weakness is corner so
(08:29):
Puka nakua. This Rams team is very pukah centric. They
match up well with them. I also think the Rams
offensive line in pass protection can be very inconsistent. They
have a rookie center, a seventh round pick six or
seventh from Arkansas against Jalen Carter who is virtually unblockable.
For twenty reasons, I like Philadelphia minus six to cover
(08:52):
Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Yeah, totally sharp.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
I think you're finding real consensus here for a lot
of the reasons you just said. And if you look
at that game last week, in reality, it probably should
have ended twenty nine to ten. Sequon took a dive
to end the game and at twenty to ten. But
everything you're saying, and from front to back, even without
(09:17):
Nakobe Dean, this Eagles defense is so fierce and what
they did to the Packers in making them look bad
is the opposite of what the Vikings did to Matthew
Stafford and that offensive line that the Vikings had made.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
The Rams defense look like the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
The Rams defense is not the Eagles, and the Eagles
offensive line is not the Vikings offensive line.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
This is a.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Team that is so completely dominant at the line of
scrimmage on both sides. The wise guys are wondering why
this isn't a little bit higher, and they'd betted up
to seven. To be honest, if you look back to
when these teams played earlier.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Than Eagles totally dominated the second.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Half, destroyed them. The line in that game was three. Okay,
the Eagles are favored by three. Now the Eagles are
favored by six. Even if you say, okay, I'm discounting
the home field advantage for the Rams and it's really
not worth that much, and then you translate all that
like home field is usually worth three. Right, So in reality,
(10:22):
what the bookmakers would be thinking is, well, shouldn't the
Eagles be favored by nine? Right? Because it's they're three
on the road at a neutral field, they're six.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
At home, they're nine.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Say that the Rams at home is not worth anything,
it still isn't worth zero, So there's a little bit
of value here. This line should probably be seven. I
would not be surprised if it gets there. Wise, guys
will definitely be betting it at six.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
So I like the Bills plus one and a half
at homes. A. Flowers is the only Ravens player who
has not practiced. In fact, it's been a while since
he did practice, so if he plays, he'll be You know,
this is kind of walking on the field and going
I understand the Bills run game. The Bill's defense is
susceptible to the run game, and I don't doubt that
(11:16):
Baltimore will have some success. Whether they have success in
the red zone, we'll see. And there have been teams
that beat the Bills. The Rams played a perfect football game.
But this Buffalo team really between an elite offensive play caller,
left tackle, quarterback, running back. I really like their wide
(11:38):
receiving antight end group. You may not have a superstar,
but it's B plus stuff. I think you know, there's
a sense that Lamar gets tens in big games. Lamar
also doesn't like cold weather, and it's going to be
twenty four degrees. I don't get the line getting Josh
Allen's best team at home plus points. I know what
(12:00):
the analytics say, it just feels wrong. I think the
Bills are going to win the Super Bowl. So wow, yeah,
So I'm taking Buffalo here, Sharper square.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
So the line opened Ravens plus two, and it moved
very quickly with wise guy money to Ravens minus one.
It was less than twenty four hours before the Ravens
went from underdogs to favorites. It got up to one
(12:31):
and a half. The wise guys have started buying the
Bills back from one and a half, it's down to one.
In a lot of places, like the wise guys like
generally whoever the underdog is in this matchups, that's what
they're betting. So if you like the Bills, you can
get him as an underdog. Get him as an underdog.
I am I would not. I don't like either side
(12:54):
in this game. If I have to bet, I'm gonna
wait as long as I can try to get the
Ravens at pick and hope this line comes back down.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
As much as Lamar doesn't like playing in.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
The cold, he's still succeed He's four to zero games
when it's less, when it's thirty degrees or less, He's
twenty six and nine against the spread as a favorite
of three or less or as an underdog. I get
what Josh Allen is. I think Lamar Jackson is the MVP.
This is a more well rounded team. I think you're
(13:26):
playing with fire if you're betting the Bills.
Speaker 4 (13:28):
But the wise guys are liking him as an underdog.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
But there's also plenty of wise guys who still like
the Ravens to win this game.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
NFL playoffs. We're talking about NFL playoffs. You bet we are.
Get in on the action of DraftKings Sportsbook, an official
sports betting partner of the NFL. Scoring touchdowns is a
key to winning in the NFL playoffs, and the key
tou scoring big is betting on him at DraftKings, the
number one place to bet touchdowns. If you're ready to
place your first bet, make it really simple. A player
scoring a touchdown, go to Draftking Sportsbooks app, download it,
(14:02):
make your pick. Here's another reason to watch your favorite
players crush it on the playoffs. If you're a new customer,
you bet five bucks. That's it, five bucks, get two
hundred in bonus bets instantly by betting just five bucks,
So score big Draftking Sportsbook during the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
Download the app.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Use the code colin c l I N That will
get you two hundred bucks in bonus bet. So if
you want two hundred dollars in bonus bets, you got
to put in the code colin only on Draftking Sportsbook.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
The Crown is yours.
Speaker 5 (14:28):
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in New York
called eight seven seven eight ope and why, or text
hope and WY four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut,
help is available for a problem gambling called eight eight
eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit
CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill
Casino when resorting Kansas twenty one on over agent eligibility
varies by jurisdiction, Void and Ontario. Bonus bets expire one
(14:51):
hundred and sixty eight hours efterichuins four. Additional terms and
responsible gaming resources see DKNG dot co slash audio.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
So, whether it's young fighters or young football teams, there
is something about youth that confidence can ebb and flow
based on your most recent date, success, fight game, Ohio
State's in this. I don't know vo Texas is the
(15:24):
right space, but they are on fire. Their self belief
is unbelievable. They are making good teams look awful. They
made Oregon look like like, you know, a third tier team.
They humiliated physically Tennessee, and I mean again, Texas was
(15:46):
arguably for most of the year, everybody's sort of belief
until they've lost to Georgia for the second time. Texas
was the team and you watch them line up with
Ohio State and you're like, yeah, nil money, and see
who spent the most money. It's Ohio State. I also
think chip Kelly has given Ohio State an advantage in
(16:08):
the NIL and NFL playoff like tournament, where it's a
great team after great team after great team. You hide
some stuff, you unveil some stuff later. I think what
they've done to their offense, the pacing, the tempo, delivering
kind of new sets and looks. I think it's a
really smart football team. And this is the first time
(16:29):
in college football you've had an NFL style playoff, and
I think Chip Kelly has helped. Notre Dame has one
five star athlete. I do think the game will be
close in the first half because I think Marcus Freeman
is my Sean mcvayh in college. I think culture and belief.
But you know, Sean McVay in his career has lost
when he has faced better teams. When he faced the
Niners for years, when all these Shanahan, when Shanahan's players
(16:52):
were all in their prime, he had great game plans
and by the third quarter late, you're like San Francisco's
got better players. I I love Marcus Freeman. I think
they're outmanned here. I think it gets I think it's
a very competitive, low scoring game early. I don't think
it is late. I'll take the buck guys minus eight
and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4 (17:12):
Well.
Speaker 1 (17:12):
At this point, there's no real dominance on either side.
Right the line opened at nine and a half, got
be down to eight and a half. It's kind of
in that no man's land between seven and ten. The
real interest from professional betters is on the under right
(17:33):
now in this game. I think it's at forty five
and a half right now. These defenses, as much as
the buck Eys offense is so good, Notre Dame's defense
has been phenomenal and Al Golden has been creating incredible
game plans, and if you look at sort of every
single metric, they're just about even. Either one is number
(17:55):
one at one and the other one is number five,
or vice versa. The only differences are Ohio State is
not nearly as good as stopping teams on third down
and Ohio State is not nearly as good at converting
turnovers as a defensive team.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
But on the flip.
Speaker 1 (18:12):
Side, Notre Dame has things where they're not as good
so they're not as good at getting sacks as Ohio State.
So there's definitely this game feels like a defensive battle
and the wise guys are looking at the under. There
is a lot of data backup what you like about this.
There have been twenty four national title games in the
(18:34):
BCS era, yeah favorites, Twelve of those have been won
by the favorites by more than a touchdown. So if
you do like Ohio State, it is likely they will
cover this game. So if you're thinking that they're going
to win, bet them to cover, because that's usually how
those things go with the favorites.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
International Title game for college.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Football, I will tell you though, it's funny about college football.
There are some suggesting that the SEC's run is over,
and then others are saying it's a one off. But
there is some advantage to this. If the NIL never
has a cap. Schools like Alabama are begging boosters like
it's a bake sale to give money. Notre Dame's got
(19:20):
more money than SEC. Schools outside of Texas, Ohio State, Michigan,
Penn State, a lot of these Oregon, a lot of
these Northern tier teams. There's a lot of CEOs from
those schools, and there's.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
A lot of money in the North.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
And when Alabama is basically saying we need help one
hundred dollars fifty bucks, all help, that's a car wash,
that's a plea for help. And you're getting that from
some of the sort of SEC fan bases. Which is
one of the great things about the SEC has been
the tribal nature of it. The Big Ten, although there
(19:58):
is some parochialism to it. Big ten graduates go to
the coast and they make big money. SEC graduates largely
stand the footprint of the South to a large degree.
Big ten graduates they go to La San Francisco, Seattle,
Tech Jobs, Boston, Minneapolis, New York, DC, overseas and they
make great money. And I just look at like Notre Dame.
(20:18):
I'm like, I know, like six.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
Notre Dame guys, they're all rolling in it.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
They're all doing well. So I think there's something to
be said about there are some financial realities. And this
is not to say there's not money in the South.
George has got a lot of money. But when Alabama's
coming out and begging for it, it's like wow. And
Alabama is sort of the Bentley, you know, it's sort
(20:42):
of the standard of the South. I do think SEC
will still be the deepest conference for a while. But
remember this year, Washington was in a rebuild, USC was
in a rebuild, Michigan was in a rebuild. They're not
in rebuilds next year. And Penn State brings everybody back,
(21:03):
and Ohio State's Ohio State and Oregon with their money
is Oregon, I think, I think it's inches, not feet now.
I think these I think these conferences are going to
go toe to toe Ohio State. I mean, we don't
even count Oregon because they got blown out by Ohio State.
I think Oregon would have beaten everybody except Georgia in
the SEC.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
I'm so glad you brought this up. I saw that
same story about Alabama, and I wasn't shocked at all
to see that they were having a hard time withinn
Iow money. And granted, everyone should take this with a
grain of salt. Where two East coast West Coast media
(21:46):
dudes who have not spent an extraordinary amount of time
living in the South. But I think your theory and
your thesis is spot on, and we're seeing it in
different ways. I don't think of the University of Miami
as a southern school. The University of Miami is a
(22:07):
school where a lot of people with a lot of
money from the East Coast, from really wealthy communities in
the Midwest send their kids to school, and those kids
then go out. Maybe they live in Miami, but they
usually go back to their hometown, whether it's New York
or Chicago, and they end up working in huge corporate environments,
making it a ton of money. They can funnel a
(22:28):
lot of money in NIL for Miami. Where Carson Beck
is going right, Think about Duke Duke in basketball, Duke
hass some of the wealthiest alumni in the country. How
to Duke get money so quickly for NIL? Partially because
their program is amazing and that's where they're going to focus.
But they're getting NIL money for football too, And so
(22:48):
I think you're one hundred percent right. NIL is going
to even the scales a little bit, and it's not
going to be one of those things where, oh my god,
Alabama's going to get so much better. They didn't get
so much better, and now we're seeing what's happening. It's
teams that have huge alumni networks that are going to
get so much better.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
I agree a one hundred.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
Percent, And think about this. I don't think people realize this.
Big ten schools are much bigger than SEC schools. Wisconsin
forty thousand, Ohio state forty five thousand. SEC schools may
fill their stadiums, but these Penn State. I mean, if
you folks, if you're listening to this, go look it up.
Big ten schools often have double the kids, and they
(23:31):
spread out over the country or internationally. I know a
lot of SEC kids that do go to New York City.
Speaker 3 (23:37):
I'm not saying they don't.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
But whereas the South economically there's a lot of jobs,
the South is still growing. The Midwest isn't necessarily growing
and has bad weather, so a lot of Big ten
students flee to better weather. Whereas a lot of SEC
students say, like, listen, it's I like the winners down
(23:59):
here of Atlanta. You know, my friends, my family so
and this is just anecdotal, but in my life, the
one city SEC students go to outside of the South
is New York City. You know a lot of financial majors, yep,
economy majors, accounting majors or whatever. But I do think
(24:19):
that the fact that the South, the economy is pretty good.
In the South, cities like Nashville are fun, cool and growing,
Atlanta same thing. Not a lot of places outside of
Chicago in the Midwest are economic powers. I mean a
lot of Indies and Saint Louis and and so a
lot of big ten kids they flee after they graduate Detroit,
(24:42):
you know, a lot of these kids they want to go,
they want to go to school there.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
Then I want to live there.
Speaker 1 (24:47):
I think, Well, Number one, let me tell you that
Penn State student body. I think it's close to sixty
seventy thousand people, like it is a massive student body, right,
it is much much bigger than when you're going to
get in an SEC school. Don't disagree with you at
all about kids wanting to go to the SEC schools
(25:07):
and then leaving the SEC schools. Right I'm going through
it right now. It is so hard to get into
SEC schools. Georgia, Auburn, Florida. Those are some of the
most competitive state schools in the country right now.
Speaker 4 (25:22):
I'm seeing it.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
And partially it is because kids from the Northeast, like
my kid, kids from the Midwest, they're tired of the weather,
they're tired of the weather, and they're seeing it on
social media every single.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
And the girls are beautiful and it's your everybody's wearing
sun dresses all year.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
Everyone's going to football games, having the time of their life,
partying in the grove, and they're like, why would I
want to go to somewhere where it's gray eight months out.
Speaker 4 (25:48):
Of the year.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
Of the top twenty three school enrollments, thirteen are in
the Big ten.
Speaker 4 (25:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (25:58):
Yeah, so that's almost the whole Big ten. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
So you know, remember USC's private, they're Big ten. Now
Northwestern's private, they're big ten. So of the sixteen, two
of them are private, small privates. Now Vanderbilt's also private,
so I'm sure they're enrollment Smaller privates usually are. But no,
I think I think our points are valid. That listen,
(26:21):
if you grow up in warm weather, it is hard
to go cold. If you grow up in cold weather,
it's much easier to go warm.
Speaker 1 (26:30):
Yeah, this is a fat It'll be fascinating to see
how this develops over the next five years, right because
or even longer, because we are seeing so many kids
from the East Coast and the Midwest who are going
to these sec schools, and over say a generation from now,
(26:53):
as these kids maybe decide to stay in the Southeast,
is there more money in corporate culture? Is there more
NIO money that gets funneled into these SEC schools that
otherwise would have gone to a Michigan that would have
gone to an Ohio state, that would have gone to
a Penn state.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
Because those are the places where those kids were going
and they're no longer headed there.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
And so there's a lot more corporate money that can
flow into the SEC schools to your point from earlier,
But it's going to take it might take.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
A while, right, So I was now all I know
is here's something else that jumped out to me before
we go, is that I always love kind of where
sports is going, not just where it is. And so
college football, I think between transfer portal ANDIL and playoff
(27:43):
has made a lot of changes, and I tend to
love change in sports and where it's going. I think
college football is in a really cool place. I just
need some guardrails on the NIL and transfer portal. And
I think the twelve team playoff will become fourteen or sixteen.
But did you see last couple of days when it
was announced that Caitlin Clark's Indiana Fever are spending ninety
(28:06):
million dollars on a new arena, And so there's something
about the WNBA. It's a league that got very defensive
when you suggested that Caitlin Clark was driving a lot
of their ratings growth, almost all of it. What does
it tell you that a WNBA team, this is a
league that hasn't made a profit, is spending ninety million
(28:28):
in Indiana on a basketball arena and it's the right
move the year after Caitlin Clark arrives. If you don't
think she has economic superpowers, you're not paying attention. That
is nothing to against any other WNBA player. The league
is better she is. She is.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
A super nova, She is a comet.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Why would anyone ever get defensive about saying when someone
says that their success is defined by this singular moment,
this singular person. Did the NBA and the Bulls really
suffer because Michael Jordan came out of nowhere and took
(29:15):
the mantle from Larry Bird and Doctor j and turned
the Bulls into a global franchise. Are the owners of
the Warriors thinking of themselves?
Speaker 4 (29:27):
Man?
Speaker 1 (29:28):
It was so much more fun before Steph Curry, when
our franchise was worth about three hundred and fifty million
dollars instead of these seven billion dollars it's worth today
with our brand new arena, the Indiana Fever, the Warriors
with their arena, they're doing the exactly the right thing.
They're taking advantage of the moment in time when they
have everybody's interest, can funnel a lot of revenue into
(29:53):
new projects and get attention for it, and then all
of a sudden it makes everything they're doing more valuable
down the line. They're using Caitlin Clark to build a
generationally great franchise and help the league grow because there
is so much interesting wind sports right now.
Speaker 4 (30:09):
It's a brilliant, brilliant idea.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
By the way, I had Adam Silver on for kind
of a wide ranging thirty minute interview this week.
Speaker 3 (30:17):
He is really really good.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
He's really good, and most of what he says I
gave him a platform for it, and I agree with it.
But I got into this thing where he said it,
and I thought about it and I was driving into
work today. Is that, you know, he and I think
the league is saying, listen, we've had six champs in
six years, and I think what has happened.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
We're a much more distracted nation.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
A lot of it is we're on our phones more
than we watch TV, and that it's hard to get
us to watch stuff that's not special. You have so
many platforms, so many streamers, so many networks, so many
cable channels, so many subscriptions to so many different platforms
that you to get me to watch something. And I'm
a sportscaster, there's got to be a special. A UFC
fight on a Satdaturday is special. College football playoffs special,
(31:02):
World Cup special, Olympic special, NFL once a week special,
Caitlin Clark games, occasionally special, O Taani playoff games special.
All of those that I just mentioned were rewarded this
year with big ratings. I think hockey, most of baseball,
in the NBA, in volume sports. I think it's going
(31:24):
to be increasingly difficult for the rest of my lifetime
to get ratings in the regular season unless you create
special This is what Fox did to baseball. They said,
how about a game in a cornfield? How about Mets
phillies in Europe? You need more special events. We're becoming
an event society and the dynasties feel special. When Kevin
(31:50):
Durant went to the Warriors, though it felt lobsided. Their
games were events Shaq and Kobe events in the NBA,
now is the events are maybe the finals a Nick's
Celtic Eastern Conference Final would feel like an event. When
(32:10):
you combine load management where many stars miss big games,
with the new reality of a distracted populace, I think
I think baseball, hockey and the NBA are going to
struggle in the regular seasons going forward.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
Well, the NBA is trying to fix that right with
the NBA Cup, the midseason tournament and the NBA Cup,
trying to make something that feels more like an event,
and to me, those games are a little bit more intense.
Speaker 4 (32:39):
I love the NBA. I love NBA playoffs.
Speaker 1 (32:44):
You talk about Knicks Celtic's Eastern Conference Finals, that is
must setv the intensity level, the level of defense, and
I think, obviously, and I know Adam talked about this
with you on the show, and the three point shooting,
like there is a level of intensity that is missing
from the regular season and trying to create that with
(33:05):
the NBA Cup is one way to do it, but
it's also hard when you don't have a dynasty. And
I am a massive, massive fan of dynasties. I want
sports dominance. I want to see history. I want to
see teams do it again and again and again, and
I want to see them annihilate their opponents and I
(33:26):
want to do I want to see them do things
that can be compared in history, not just on a
season a season basis, And it's getting harder and harder
to do that with the NBA. And also, look the
best athletes, Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembinyamo, they are Shay Gilders, Alexander,
They are so much fun to watch. Only one of
(33:50):
them really has anything close to the charisma of is
Steph Curry, Anthony Edwards of a lebron James Anthony Edwards.
But he's still growing up and like he's not connecting
with the fans in the same way that these guys did. Right,
there's something that isn't that isn't translating from fans, even
though I think he's phenomenal and he's so much fun.
(34:12):
That's the challenge is they need they need dominance right now.
And the Celtics, you know they're not dominant. Jason Tatum
isn't a guy that fans are getting behind Jalen Brown.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
The word the word special. The Celtics won the title
because they had the greatest depth one through eight. They
were easily the best team in the league. Tatum was
disappointing in big games. In fact, Jalen Brown was getting
the MVP. So even on that team, like Shaq and
Kobe both felt generational. Brown and Tatum feel really good.
So our championship team now, even even on Cleveland, Donovan
(34:46):
Mitchell's very good. We don't think he's Jordan or Kobe
or the Braun or Steph and so right now, Luca
is great, but his game isn't flashy. It's like Dirk,
it's not a flashy game. I'll give you this question.
(35:08):
You get five things in sports. Everything else leaves, So
mine would be NFL, college football, sports, gambling, NBA playoffs, UFC.
Speaker 3 (35:22):
You can't count.
Speaker 2 (35:24):
World Cup in the Olympics, those are every four years.
You have to go through all of sports. You get
to keep five things, NFL, college football, gambling, NBA playoffs, UFC.
Speaker 3 (35:36):
I like the World couple lot too. What would your
five be? What would you get rid of? What would
your five, and I say.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
This, I loved the baseball playoffs. I loved it this year,
especially in the National League.
Speaker 4 (35:49):
I would add World Series.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
I would take off UFC because I love playoff baseball.
It is so intense, it is every pitch, and it's
the same context we're just talking about. During the season,
I'm not going to watch that many baseball games. I'm
going to keep track of what's going on. I'm a
(36:15):
stat geek, so I love reading about how teams are
performing and how certain players are developing.
Speaker 4 (36:22):
But I'm not going to.
Speaker 1 (36:23):
Watch a mid season game with the same intensity and
the same joy that I'm watching a World Series game.
Even the past World Series that was essentially a blowout,
That last game was so intense and you couldn't turn
it off no matter how late it was going to go.
I feel the same way about the NBA playoffs. I
(36:44):
would not get rid of anything for the NBA. I
love the NBA all year round. I'm going to watch
the thunder and the Calves, and even though nobody knows
who any of those players are, I love the game
of basketball that they're all playing and the way they
passed amongst themselves I think is amazing. Obviously, I'm not
gonna get rid of sports betting. That to me has
(37:05):
to be number one. Sports betting. You know, sports betting
is the invisible hand influencing the current and future state
of sports, I think more than anything else. And so
that to me is the umbrella that all of this
lives under the NFL. I wouldn't get rid of a
second of the NFL. I cannot live without it. I
(37:28):
love it so much.
Speaker 4 (37:30):
And college football. Here's my problem with college football.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
The games are just too long, Like there are I
don't need four and a half hours of college football games.
And I think they're great, they're fun, but I can't
sit for that long.
Speaker 4 (37:45):
So if it's going to stay, I need.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
The reason the NFL is king and so much greater
than college football is because it has a commissioner and
it's constantly tweaking. It's the same reason UFC is better
than boxing it has a central voice and is constantly tweaking.
Is that college football is like a really good product,
poorly run. I mean, essentially, the twelve team playoff happened,
(38:10):
and Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC and the PAC
twelve folding and four teams moving into the Big Ten.
All that happened because Fox and ESPN wanted it to happen,
So that's it. They just got tired of college football
wasting so many monetization opportunities that Fox and ESPN said, guys,
we're going to take it over. Yeah, And that's what
(38:31):
Dana White said, Boxing, You're ridiculous. I'm going to create something.
The Fertida family and Dana White and so college football
and boxing, which I love growing up, have just been
poorly managed my entire life. And so Dana White and
TV networks changed both and for the better. I mean,
college football now like a twelve team playoff.
Speaker 3 (38:52):
You're like, what, why aren't we and it's not even done.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
They're going to keep tweaking it. But why didn't this
happen twenty five thirty years ago.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
It's interesting the way you talk about UFC because I
know the sport well, you know, I wrote Chuck Liddell's
autobiography with him, and I've watched more UFC fights than
I can count.
Speaker 4 (39:18):
I would still take.
Speaker 1 (39:20):
A heavyweight boxing match over UFC with the pomp and
circumstance any day, like Lennox Lewis, Evander Holyfield Tyson Evander.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
I used to be like that and Dana White. I
asked Dana about that because Dana grew up with boxing
and so did I. I used to be like that,
and I still love a great boxing match, but they're
so infrequent now, there's like one every other year. I mean,
you got you know, Logan Paul is like one of
the attractions. Hey, let's put Connor McGregor and boxing line.
Speaker 1 (39:54):
Yeah, it's gimmicky. Now it's not the same thing. But
I'm saying historically, if I could have back a brilliant
heavyweight boxer, or if I could even have Floyd Mayweather
and Manny Pacquiao in their prime, I would rather have
that than UFC.
Speaker 4 (40:15):
It's just more interesting to me. I just like it more.
Speaker 1 (40:18):
I'm not anti UFC, but if I could have boxing
at its height, I would take boxing at its height
over UFC at its height.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
Yeah. I used to be like that. I'm not anymore.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
And I also think I mean, I'm in the UFC
business at the volume.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
And the one thing I think UFC is so brilliant
they picked today. It's Saturday night. You know what you're getting.
You don't get bad cards. You get either sensational cards
or good cards. Boxing was a coin flip whether you
were pissed off at the end of the night for
buying the pay per view and selling nothing for three hours,
(40:56):
by the way, and then the fight would start an
hour and a half late. It was like watching Guns
and Roses going to a concert. They're going to hit
the stage two hours late. Just just smoke another bawl
and enjoy your night, dude.
Speaker 1 (41:08):
I remember getting together with my buddies in high school
and one guy would buy the Tyson fight and we'd
be all sitting around. We'd be jacked. We're like, this
is what we're doing tonight. It's going to be amazing.
We don't have to be going we don't have to
go look for a party. We were such losers.
Speaker 4 (41:23):
We weren't going to find a party anyway.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
As you're like, this is it, We're in We're doing
this tonight, and then Tyson would knock the guy out
in thirty seconds, where we're like, ah, fuck, what do
we do now. We'd get in some guy's minivan, cruise
around town, listening to the Smiths and hoping we can
find something to do.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
Chad Millman Sharper square All odds provided by DraftKings. He's
a co host of the Favorites.
Speaker 4 (41:46):
Good seeing you body, Good to see you too, brother,
Have a great weekend. Go football.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
The volume
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
True Crime Tonight
If you eat, sleep, and breathe true crime, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT is serving up your nightly fix. Five nights a week, KT STUDIOS & iHEART RADIO invite listeners to pull up a seat for an unfiltered look at the biggest cases making headlines, celebrity scandals, and the trials everyone is watching. With a mix of expert analysis, hot takes, and listener call-ins, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT goes beyond the headlines to uncover the twists, turns, and unanswered questions that keep us all obsessed—because, at TRUE CRIME TONIGHT, there’s a seat for everyone. Whether breaking down crime scene forensics, scrutinizing serial killers, or debating the most binge-worthy true crime docs, True Crime Tonight is the fresh, fast-paced, and slightly addictive home for true crime lovers.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.