The Favorites - NFL Conference Championships Betting Preview

Only four teams remain in pursuit of Super Bowl LIX and the Lombardi Trophy, as the Washington Commanders visit the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Buffalo Bills square off against their playoff rivals the Kansas City Chiefs. Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to dive deeply into both games, giving their favorite sides. Later, we hear a montage of fake ad reads from back in August, when Chad was tricked into read imposter sponsorship scripts by producer Matt Mitchell. #Volume #herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday Conference Championship episode. We will break down the
lines for the AFC and NFC conference title games. We
will discuss our exec decision and ours Simon says, do

(00:32):
not fret. On Thursday. We will have the usual menu,
sharp calls, foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. Plus
we will get into some futures talk with the remaining teams.
The four remaining teams and their Super Bowl odds as
they stand right now, how do we want to play
those heading into Conference Championship weekend. Obviously, we're going to

(00:56):
believe there's some value there. You want to get ahead
of that. We're also going to have a lot of
conversations about hedging strategies. Before the season began, Simon and
I both gave out Super Bowl matchup plays. Simon actually
gave out a Super Bowl matchup with the winner. Both
of those were at very long odds. Both of those

(01:18):
bets from Simon and I are still alive. So we
want to talk a little bit about our hedging strategy
heading into this weekend. I would bet that a lot
of people have some kind of matchups in play that
certainly involved potentially the Bills the Eagles. The Bills are
the Chiefs and the Eagles, so good opportunity to run

(01:38):
through some of the strategies on Thursday Live from Her
Tell Me John Home Studios. I'm joined as always by
my co host, my companion Mike Capadre might beft professional
better Simon hunt at Also I'm in Chad.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Life is good sitting here my Tommy John sweatpants. My
Eagles team in the conference finals. Damn, Like Man Mitchell
saying before the show, you just there's a pep in
your step one of the sport you love. Your team
has one game away, one game away from super Bowl.
So yeah, it's been a fun two days so far
since the Eagles won.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
Listen, there's a pep in your step when your team
is a game away from the super Bowl. The way
you feel, the way Matt Mitchell feels. Matt Mitchell. If
people don't know Matt Mitchell, every year during the playoffs
promises his entire neighborhood free ice cream if the Bills
win a playoff game. So naturally, he spent yesterday going

(02:38):
to the grocery store in his entire bills get up
his bills, poncho. He sent us a picture and then
he buys pints of Ben and Jerry's and just passed
it around the neighborhood. It was minus twenty degrees in
Milwaukee yesterday. He made his son do it, and it
was lovely the way he sort of built some character

(03:00):
with his son walking around the neighborhood headter and not
Ice screaming. Now he's just got the entire neighborhood of
Packers fans screaming, go bills. You know what else? You
get a little pep in your step when you're moribund
historically crappy, bad decision making, poorly run franchise pulls the

(03:24):
hottest head coaching prospect of the past three years.

Speaker 2 (03:28):
We got him, Jeed, We got him, got him, and.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
He walks into the building and there's standing ovation from
all across Hallis Hall, Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams. This time
next year, we're probably gonna be talking about Caleb Williams
and Jayden Daniels in the NFC title game, and how
amazing it's going to be to see these guys playing

(03:53):
for the next decade against each other. Am I right?

Speaker 2 (03:57):
I was so happy for you because that was we talked.
He felt like a months ago. Now that's how long
this playoffs have felt the NFL season. But that was
the guy they had to get, that was in the division.
He knows the best team in your division's offense in
and out. Like, if there's one guy that has the
secrets how to stop Detroit Lions offense, he's the guy.
And then you think about the pairing of him offensive

(04:19):
mind with Caleb Williams, It's it's, I mean, how can
you not be over the moon at this point. I
mean I could be big between about the money, like, oh,
I think they're overpaying them thirteen million. Who cares this
organization never spends the money. Yeah, it's I'm just so happy.
Like the Bears owner, who are notoriously cheap, they put
the money up, they went and got the guy, and yeah,

(04:41):
it literally I love every move he's already made so
far too, Like his hirings Dennis Allen for your defense,
I know people are like, oh, he's such a shitty
head coach. This guy was a huge reason that Saints
defense had a huge turnaround when he went there, Like, again,
if you're a Bears fan, you're you're absolutely killing this
offseason already, and I'm excited to see what happens here

(05:01):
going forward because you already know that. You know, don't
just go sign a bunch of big weapons, Go get
that offensive line attack it. That's that's the key. The
rest of the for me, for the Bears, the rest
of this offseason addressed the offensive line. So yeah, I mean,
home run. Got got to give tons of credit to
the front, front, ownership, everybody that runs the Bears right now,
because I mean, you like to shoot on them because
how shitty they've been. But even you were just like,

(05:23):
holy shit, we got them.

Speaker 1 (05:25):
Yeah, I'm floored. I was convinced we were getting Brian
Flores or Mike McCarthy or Cliff Kings Bear.

Speaker 2 (05:31):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (05:34):
It's also Look, it's also interesting nobody was right, none
of the reporting.

Speaker 2 (05:40):
Schefty, Schefty. Let's give someone of the cheft.

Speaker 1 (05:42):
Schefty was right when it was right, but in the
run up, not a single person. The conversation all weekend
was about Ben Johnson going to the Raiders and all
the brew haha, which was idiotic about tom Brady. Tom
Brady flipped the ventures and him calling the game and
what he can say to Ben Johnson, and then that

(06:05):
incredibly awkward interlude he had with with with Kevin Burkhart
about are you staying at Fox? You know, is this
a conflict? Like it was so performative and stupid, and
none of it mattered because Ben Johnson went to the Bears.
And by the way, I happen to know, conversations with

(06:26):
the Bears were like deep in progress over the weekend
when all this was happening, so nobody had it and
nobody was right. So just fantastic.

Speaker 2 (06:37):
They got to change the rules. I mean, it's if
you're a Detroit's fan, I get the rage. But they
got to change the rules because, like like you just said,
they were deep into conversations over the weekend. I mean,
it's it's absurd, it was.

Speaker 1 (06:50):
It was astonishing. But good for the Bears. I'm proud
of them, so proud of this team. I love this franchise.
I've given them so much I want them to give back.
That's it. That's it. I don't want to consign my
kid to a lifetime of misery. As a reminder, the
Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and
now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred

(07:11):
and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,
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(07:32):
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or
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or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply. All right, we're going to go through Washington, Philadelphia,
We're going to go through Buffalo at Kansas City. I

(07:52):
will pull one important stat from Evan Abram's brilliant roundup
of stats, trends, and notes heading into the conference championship game,
which you can readnow on Action network dot com, read
it in the Action Network ap as. It pertains to underdogs.
So since two thousand and three, underdogs in the Conference

(08:16):
Championship are twenty and twenty two against the spread, the
only round of the playoffs below five hundred against the
spread in that span. In the Super Bowl era, since
nineteen sixty six, underdogs fifty three sixty two and one
against the spread in the Conference Championship. That surprised you, sim.

Speaker 2 (08:38):
A little bit, But like you just think too about
how random is I think you know obviously that Bengals
Rams here went two and oh dogs last year was
two and oh right, am I am? I wrong game?
I think last year was too and o Chiefs is
a dog against the Ravens. And I mean me and
Chad know we we or maybe travels on the other side.
But I remember the back door. The Lies are up
ten and we needed a backdoor to cover against.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
The finaty with on the Niners.

Speaker 2 (09:01):
No, no, I was definitely on the lines.

Speaker 1 (09:03):
What was the oh right, right, right, right right. We
were on the we were on the Lions and we
were thrilled because it was going well, but we were.

Speaker 2 (09:10):
Rather up ten. Then they had to back door to
get the like seven point covered everyone's But yeah, it's
so we're off to we have a couple of years
here since you know, since COVID where the dogs have
been covering. But what I take from that from Evan
is basically the laws of averages, Like we're due for
two and zero favorites week right, That's the way I'm
looking at it. Above. Yeah, the Dogs just went four

(09:31):
and oh against the closing number. I mean, we're going
to get into it here, but it's like, if the
line keeps moving on, obviously this Washington team, that's gonna
be value on the dog here. But right now, I
think we both talked Sunday night, I thought there was
value on the favorites. So yeah, it's not shocking to
see the early money coming in on the favorites.

Speaker 1 (09:48):
Dogs seven and three in the playoffs so far, including
four and oh against the closing number this past weekend
hour youiter rate. I was going through my notes yesterday
and looked back at the notes from Sunday night based
on Evans' tweet about Dogs going four and zero against

(10:09):
the closing number. But the way those games landed, that's
a hall of Fame betting weekend, the fact that it
came down to Ravens, who opened a plus two, missed
a two point conversion in a flucush drop by a
guy who doesn't drop passes, and a game in which

(10:33):
their loss was partially set up by that same guy fumbling,
which he hadn't done since twenty nineteen, the Chiefs getting
a safety self induced for that game to land on
nine when the number was between eight and a half
and nine and a half all week, the the Eagles

(10:57):
pushing at six because of Jake Elliot extra points like
and then, by the way, the college football playoff last night,
that game closed at eight and a half, opened at
nine and a half. It was at eight, and you know,
with ninety seconds left, it's third and long ish and
you're thinking, maybe we got a shot here to cover

(11:20):
as a Notre Dame backer. They go fifty six yards
and score a game clinching covering field goal. What it like,
the drama around the edges of these numbers has just
been insane.

Speaker 2 (11:34):
It's been so exciting, and it's it's also why you know,
there's plenty of crazy people out there that believe there's
some guy in the Swiss Alps with a time machine
that makes these lines. Because you see a weekend like this,
it's it's literally just shows how smart the bookmakers are
and why we give so much respect to them. We
talk about it because all these games are half a point,
half a point point here, and like you just said, stupidness,

(11:57):
randomness to land on those exact numbers, right, who missed
two pointers? Miss extra point? And yeah, that's why we
talk all the time that you know, people are like,
why do you guys get so spooked off the number?
This past year was just weird where numbers didn't really
matter when these island games happen, though, and the books
are really locked in, right, They're just all focused on
hyper focus on these games. There's always gonna be outliers

(12:19):
like that Commander's game, but usually the one to two
points are gonna matter, especially in the playoffs. And like
we just said, this past weekend, you know we personally
on the show or I did, I should say, went
three to zero to one, right, the one push against
the Eagles should have been a four to oh weekend.
But the books are just so sharp and make it
so tough on paper. Depends when you got our numbers

(12:40):
you might have went to and two. Right, you lost
them the Chiefs, you lost them the Eagles. Like it's
brutal because the books are just that sharp right now.
So yeah, we talked Sunday night the numbers we gave
out Chad. They got slammed. And that's just how it
is in this point in the time of year where
it's like the books are smart. They'll take the professional
money ear in the week and they'll move heavy off

(13:01):
respected money. And yeah, like I can't wait diving these
games because it's it's the best time here. You get
the best football and you get the smartest book bookmaker
wise like number wise, so it really is the best.

Speaker 1 (13:12):
Washington at Philly. The number is minus six. The total
is forty seven and a half, Eagles six point favorites.
We talked about it on Sunday night. I bet this
as soon as it opened at four and a half.
For two reasons. I just I wondered if bookmakers were
keeping it a bit low in case they were worried
about Jalen Hurts not playing. Since the line posted before

(13:35):
that Eagles Rams game was over, I had been wanting
to fade Washington since the second it's game with the Lions,
and yeah, like, when you beat the number one seeded
team as badly as they did in a high scoring
game in prime time with thirty three million people watching,
there is no way they are not going to be
overvalued the next day. So I was a little dismayed.

(14:00):
You and I chatted on Sunday night, and I was
all in on betting the four and a half. And
then even in the conversation, I got seven books in
front of me looking at Action Network and sort of
running across the screen. Five of them were at five
or five and a half, including bet three six five,
only two or at four and a half, And I
felt like you, even though you said your rating was

(14:22):
at seven, you weren't banging the drum to go after
the four and a half.

Speaker 2 (14:27):
Yeah, because I know my quarterback. I watched him after
the game laugh and give insane answers to the media
woman interviewing them, and it's like, this dude's on a
ton of drugs. This dude is drugged the fuck up,
Like his knees gotta be bad. Because Jalen's not the
type of dude that it's like, yeah, shoot me up
with whatever I need. To get out there. He's he's
the kind of guy that he just wants to fight
through and if he's in that much pain, I was like,

(14:49):
holy shit, I need them to do some tests before
I'm putting heavy money onto this team, because like we
talked about, like, yeah, I made the number seven, it
was four and a half. Obviously I'm going to take
a position on him, but my whole point was I'm
not going to hammer this one like I was with
the Chief Stummer because I'm just like this, this this,
you know, you nail it. Obviously this number is alway
up to six and a half and most books, but

(15:10):
you know that's part of my job. Like I put
the number out there that had at seven. If we
come in today and it's three and a half, I
look like a fucking idiot. It's like that number went
three and a half against what I just said. Luckily
it's gone the other way, and I think that, you know,
what you just talked about gives us more confidence about
Hurts that he is going to be healthy in this spot.
There are so many different things we could dive into
this game. Where do you want to start even start

(15:30):
a Commanders or Eagle side?

Speaker 1 (15:32):
I want to start with the person I think might
be the most important player on the field for the Eagles,
which is who is Jalen Carter. And the fact that
commanders are going to be without Sam Cosmi their right guard. Yeah,
and to me, normally a right guard not mean as
much on passing downs, but with Carter it's so different.

(15:56):
And Evan had this great stat in his packet, the
fourth most pass block snaps for any guard this year
were from Sam Cosmy. That's a fifty one guards with
at least five hundred pass blocking snaps. He was one
of eleven with one sack or fewer allowed. So to me,

(16:19):
I look, we already love the Eagles for a variety
of reasons, but to me, it begins and ends with
this defensive line, and that begins and ends with Jalen Carter.

Speaker 2 (16:28):
Yeah, just brutal, like brutal, brutal loss that offense. It's
basically it feels like the hierarchy goes jayde Daniels, Terry
McLaurin than him. Like that was the three most important
parts of my opinions of their offense, and you nailed it.
Like how dominant that guy's been in pass for now?
We know, Jadan Daniels helps those numbers, right, Like if
you have a like Josh Allen, Like, if you have

(16:48):
a quarterback that can move, it's gonna make the lines
and numbers look way better and kind of give them
the free bump. But when you really dive into it,
this guy is so legit and the fact that he's
gonna be missing here it's so macho. I've been just
I just want to touch on what you touched at
the top of it about we already knew were probably
can be on the Eagles just because the j nails
is get more of a value in the spot. I mean,
even screaming a Smith on espen Is saying he likes

(17:11):
them to win the Super Bowl. Now that this is
the team of destiny, You're dead. You are absolutely dead.
When the man who doesn't watch football in fifteen years
is saying you're the team of destiny, you are absolutely dead.
So I feel bad for the Washington Commanders, but they
can live in this moment. You never know. That's what's
so great about the playoffs, this exact spot, Like we're
a couple of just talking heads. Fuck if we know
like the game, the game can have weird bounces and

(17:32):
they can easily win this game. They've put themselves in
this position, but this is a game when you dive
into the numbers, they are dead on arrival. Like there
really is so many things that need to go their
way for them to pull off this upset, just because
they are so underwhelmingly matched in so many different areas
of this football game. And we just talked about them
being overvalued, Chad, have you looked at futures at all

(17:54):
for next season?

Speaker 1 (17:55):
Oh my god, it's fucking insane.

Speaker 2 (17:58):
They're sixteen to sixteen to one.

Speaker 1 (17:59):
These Commanders, the Commanders, the Commanders is absurd right now.

Speaker 2 (18:06):
So they're above the forty nine Ers, the Packers, the Bengals,
just to name a few right now. In the future
Bowl Super odds next year, it's it's peak, Like we
know the deal, Like Jane Dangels will be lucky, lucky
to make the playoffs next year because we know Regression's
gonna hit him like crack in the eighties. He is
gonna be hurting next year, Like the league is going

(18:27):
to figure him out and a bunch of different ways.
And that's just how it is in this league. Like
we talk all the time, these are the best of
the best. They the coaches are paid millions of dollars
to sit back there and figure out ways. And you
know this is this could be peaked. That's why I
don't want to be shitting on this Commander's think too much.
We've seen it so many times that you know, Dan
Marino the greatest quarterback when I was growing up in

(18:49):
my lifetime, like watching on him in film. You know,
paying man time, Brady replaced him in my opinion of
being the next, like the greatest. But Marino, you go
back and watch your tape. It's flucish that he never
made it back to the super Bowl. That's why Washington fans,
you should enjoy this. You're literally a win away from
the super Bowl. I'm sorry, I'm about to dive into
these numbers and just shit on your team in a

(19:09):
bunch of different ways, but that's what we're here to do. Chad,
and I just want to start right with their defense.
Something mean, you talked about their run defense. That is
the biggest thing that jumps out to you when you
dive in any of these numbers. I know, you know
there are summers that saying they do get better in
the second half, they are able to make adjustments and
their run defense doesn't prove in the second half, but
just over the over the course of the season. Twenty

(19:32):
six and run defense dvoa, Okay, that's alarming. Twenty thirty
and justin line thirty first and second level yards allowed
so past the five and ten yard marker twenty just
where lives twenty six and open field yards allowed.

Speaker 1 (19:47):
So when Barkley lives.

Speaker 2 (19:50):
Yeah, I mean it couldn't be worse. I mean, Evan
just put our chat rushing proper saquon one hundred and
twenty seven yards might be too low. It might be
too low. It's like to me, I was trying to
find an angle for the Commanders just because you know
hurts his banged up. Janie Daniels is the difference maker.
We've never seen a rookie quarterback like him. But that

(20:10):
defense is a real issue now when we really break
this down and look at the games, me and you
were all over Tampa against this Commander's team. We even
said it, if Baker just played a little bit smarter,
that's a no brainer win cover double digits. Yes, Like
we both feel the same exact way about that.

Speaker 1 (20:27):
I feel like I'm your chorus right now, anything you say.

Speaker 2 (20:32):
But it's just like you really dive into and I
get the hype, but that's what people have to push
through the media bullshit of the shiny new toy. No
one wants to see an Eagles chief Super Bowl. I'm
an Eagles fan. I would love nothing more for a
rookie quarterback to be playing the Bills, all the Bills
history shit. Honestly, I'm again I'm an Eagles fan. So yes,

(20:53):
deep down I want the Eagles clearly, but I'm saying
as a fan of football, no, Like, dude, it killed
me last year having to talk forty nine Ers Chiefs again.
No one wanted to talk that again. So it's like
that's part of it. I get where I get where
the media is coming from hyping up this team right now,
but when you really go through it, they needed Baker
to have a disaster game, to have that type of game.

(21:13):
They needed golf to melt, like absolutely melt. And we
joked about it, if they just handed the ball off
that entire game, I really do think they probably win
that game and Detroit Lions, and they're now in a
spot playing an Eagles team that is plus six in
the turnover rate. But I think we could both agree
chat they've not played their best football in two weeks
in the playoffs, like they've left a lot of plays

(21:35):
on the field, Like they have struggled different ways, And
now is it coming to a team that honestly, if
this is the regular season, this would be the perfect
spot to back this Eagles team in the sense of
they match up grade against them and this is the
kind of spot where they get back into their groove
of what they've been this regular season. And you know
the fact that the defensive numbers are what they are
for the rush defense, that's everything to me because I

(21:57):
agreed with a lot of what you said about the
Ravens and Bills, like those biggest weakness was the rush,
and that's why I got where you were coming from.
It's the same thing here and Hurts on the flip side,
he's been the gift that he's been doing. He's not
turning the ball over. That's why these Eagles teams have
been winning these last two games. So yeah, it's it's
when you dive into it and we're going to the
commander side right now. It's the first thing that jumps
out to me. Yes, we're all impressed by Jane Daniels,

(22:19):
but it's really this defense that they're just they're totally
being overlooked here, like no one's bringing up their defense
just because we're all so enamored with Jaden Daniels right now.

Speaker 1 (22:28):
Yeah, the defense, the defense got so torched by the
Lions running game. The Lions almost pulled not almost, they
kind of did pull what the Ravens pulled the year
before against the Chiefs and the championship game. All they
had to do was keep giving the ball to Jamiir
Gibbs and they kept you know, they got too cute

(22:51):
by half a couple of times, especially on that Jamison
Williams pass right, and so like those things are game
killers in the playoffs, the Eagles don't have that benefit.
Jalen Hurt is hobbled like and by the way, we
still don't have official confirmation he's playing this weekend. We

(23:13):
just haven't been given confirmation that he's got structural damage
or anything that would keep him from playing, So we
have to assume that he's playing. And by the way,
the way the numbers moving gives every indication that he
is playing.

Speaker 2 (23:26):
And Earl's respective money, Right, That's what I was going to.

Speaker 1 (23:30):
Say, Like, yeah, we've we've seen on this show how
often Simon is able to indicate ahead of the market
because he has sources throughout the NFL, as do a
lot of professional betters. It's not just Adam Schefter, Like
everybody has sources in the NFL. I knew over the
weekend what was going on with the Bears, Like the people.

Speaker 2 (23:52):
Have to talk, people like to talk, and so.

Speaker 1 (23:56):
Like it's it's people aren't heading heavy on the Eagles
right now because they're guessing Jalen Hurts, Yeah, might play.
The Eagles don't have the same predilections as as the Lions, right,
they don't have the same kind of offense. Their offense

(24:17):
is run behind Jordan Mylatta, run behind Lane Johnson, give
the ball the Saquon Bark. We let him get one
hundred and twenty seven and a half yards in one
play and on the third and four roll Jalen Hurts out,
you know, and like keep moving the ball, wait for
that big play beat down the other side of the defense.

(24:38):
So yeah, they're just good and the Commander's defense is
so bad.

Speaker 2 (24:44):
And even if Hurts is banged up. We just talked
about it. They'll shoot him up, and to me, we've
seen time time again. I mean, one of my favorite
bets ever. I lost to chat We went head to head.
I like Cleveland, he liked the Browns. It was Deshaun
Watson's last game maybe ever for the Cleveland Browns. And
basically they're down I think ten ten and a half and

(25:05):
Watson breaks his collar bone. They shoot him up. He
comes out and is basically perfect really against the Ravens
the second half. And you've seen that time and time again.
My favorite two Aaron Rodgers against your Bears team came
on that second half, all messed up, was perfect in
the game flowless to the second half, and it's just
because it turns off that thinking piece, right. And you know,
we joked about that egos game. People. I told you

(25:27):
they were gonna do it. They were gonna shit on
Hurts after that game last week because he'd have the
numbers negating AJ Brown dropped that touchdown, nagatting. He had
another drop for another twenty yards. You know, Smith had
a drop that was another twenty thirty yards. It's like,
that's just how it is, right because a lot of
these guys don't watch these games, which sounds crazy. People
what I'm telling you, they just don't. They're living the

(25:48):
good life, so to me. You know, even if Hurts
is hampered, here, we broke it down what we think
this is gonna be. This is going to be a lean,
heavy on run game. Hurts same thing he's been all season,
especially in the playoffs here. Fifteen to sixteen completions maybe
twenty five twenty four passes total. That's what the Egles
want to be. And it's we saw with Josh Allen

(26:10):
the Bills. The teams have figured it out where if
you're just smart, protect the ball and run it, let
the other team make them a stick. It's it's impossible
now to pick up big chunk plays usually let them
didn't get dunk down the field and wait for the
Nike mistake. I do think it's stolen from the Chiefs.
Like that's what the Chiefs model has been the last
two years, and all these teams have leaned into and
adapted to it. And that's not Washington's game, Like, that's

(26:33):
not who Jane Daniels is. So yeah, this I like
the hype. I just love it all right, now because
it is fueling the public reception even the Action app.
I was looking for a game on the tickets all
all in Washington, even though it's moved against them, because
you look in the action app, the money right now
is on the Eagles, so it is professional money obviously
early here. And you know, I know you love referee stats.

(26:55):
Have you seen any of the ref stats for this
game yet?

Speaker 1 (26:57):
I just saw one, the one about Sean Hockey Lee
that Evan had as the only one I've seen.

Speaker 2 (27:03):
Yeah, So Eagles six and oh we Shaan Hockley five
and one against the spread, Commanders one and two, oh
and three against a straight up oh and three against
the spread with him, And again it doesn't really matter.
That's kind of like a random, just stupid stat. But
there's a lot of ones this week that are just
like that, that kind of back up that you know,
this is just a bad spot for this Commander's team.

(27:23):
The biggest one I took from Evan was the Commanders
of the eighth team since two thousand air playoff game
on their fourth road ro game in a row, fourth
road game in a row, so pretty big deal. Those
previous seven oh and seven straight up won five and
one against the spread, this exact spot. So the Commanders
are just already in a really tough spot and there's
already a lot of factors going against them defensively, offensively.

(27:46):
So yeah, we talked about this. This rookie the greatest
we've ever seen, never see anything like it. He nearly
he literally needs to be perfect in this game for
them to pull up this upset. So that's why right
now I think we're both in agreeance. It's still under seven.
I still think the value is on this Eagles team.
It's so that's that was a long window way to
get there. But that's what I wanted to get into
is just there's so many different numbers back in this

(28:07):
Eagles team in this spot, not just what we know
is better is which is this is going to be
an overvalue team. On the flip side, Eagles who didn't
cover for about ninety percent of the betters who took them,
and you know, they look bad. They have a bang
up quarterback. They're now the underrated team, favored at home
and a spot that's great for them. So a very
unique spot for back in this Eagles team.

Speaker 1 (28:28):
Two things I'm glad you brought up number one. There
are when you get to this stage, a shitload of
red herring stats, right that, the Hockey League stat, the
other stat about the you know, four straight road games.
They're good information, but they're not the information you base

(28:52):
your decision on, and oftentimes our first instinct on the
after at this point, you know, what is it nineteen weeks,
twenty weeks of watching football and seeing these games and
seeing how the market is moving, your first instinct on
the number. I have found it much easier during the

(29:13):
playoffs to bet with confidence on Sunday Night than I
was during the season because there's only so many games.
At this point of the season, you have a good
at sense of which way the market is going to
move based on who won and the perception of that
team going forward. And so this was an obvious one.

(29:34):
I will give you one last stat because this one
felt like it was a big enough sample size. The
Commanders have won seven in a row. Fifteen teams have
entered a conference championship game on a seven plus game
straight up win streak since two thousand and four, four
and eleven against the spread, failing to cover by four

(29:58):
and a half points. So week you talked about an
autline on the Eagles at I think minus ten. That's
how this might line up too, if we want to
get a little funky and we're starting to feel really
confident about the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (30:17):
Yeah, there's a lot. There's a lot of meat on
that bone for sure.

Speaker 1 (30:21):
Hey, as an Eagles fan, now that I can bask
in the glory of having probably the best offensive mine
in a generation and a guy like already getting fitted
for Super Bowl rings, Nick Sirianni has clearly bought himself
another year and all this week because the media is
so predictable, glowing glowing, glowing, glowing stories about Nick Sirianni

(30:45):
and how he connects with his players and Nick Sirianni
and how he has remained calm and comfortable throughout this
entire hot seat process. How do you feel about Nick
Sirianni continuing to be the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Speaker 2 (31:03):
I'm tough to get off my views of people, Like,
once I have a view on you, you rub me
the wrong way, I'm kind of stuck in on it,
and I just I'll never get there with them. Unfortunately,
even if we get to the super Bowl, maybe that
would be it. Maybe if we win it, I'll be like, Okay,
I do give this guy too much, but I'm still
the mindset of it's all Howie baby, Like Howie's just
given him the best possible car you can drive, and

(31:26):
his whole job is just not to fuck this up.
And that rams game chat, I was about twenty seconds
away from him being fired, Like they scored that touchdown
there at the end, and we lose that game. I mean,
unless he knows something about Jeffrey Leard, we don't know.
You gotta fire him after that type of loss you
lose when you're up thirteen with four minutes to go
and you blow that, that would be on him. But yeah,

(31:48):
I mean I've seen all the stats. He has the
most wins in NFL history in his first four seasons coaching.
But i mean, we all see what's happening here. It's
like one of the best teams you can put onto
the field. It's all built by Howie. And you know,
I'll give him his roses that he is a good
team coach and he's kept these guys in his right
mindset and we're a game away from the super Bowl here,

(32:08):
But yeah, I's still like that game with that rams
game chat. That's why I just it's hard for me
with him sometimes because those games snowball and they keep
showing him on the sideline with his dumb look on
his face. I'm just like, he is there's nothing happening
right now, and this guy, this guy is not. There's
nothing he can do right now. This is totally out
of his control. And yeah, it's it's incredible what he's done.

(32:30):
You know, he might go back to back Super Bowls
in two years. It's pretty impressive. Obviously.

Speaker 1 (32:34):
It's like, by the way, you mentioned Dan Marino is
like in your lifetime, Dude, Den Marino's my lifetime. He's
not your lifetime.

Speaker 2 (32:43):
I drafted Dan Marino in fantasy football, so shut the
fuck up, chat, He's in my lifetime. When did you.

Speaker 1 (32:48):
Draft Dan Marino in fantasy football? He retired? And like,
when did you retire?

Speaker 2 (32:52):
Like eight ninety eight, Jesus Christ, you were three. I
appreciate that a little older than that, but I got him.

Speaker 1 (33:01):
Before we get to Bill's jeeves, it has come to
our attention, so we had a little fun before the
season started. A huge percentage of our current favorite audience
has never seen something something important, very important, which we
aired back on August twenty seventh. Let's fix that right now. So,
Matt Mitchell played a very long con on me over

(33:24):
the course of a full year. Enjoy all right, Matt
Mitchell pulled a long con on me all last football
season with an ad reag prank that took him months
to execute. I'm going to bring in Matt Mitchell to
explain the con that he pulled on me, and listen.

(33:47):
Kudos to him because he worked this and staged straight
faced for months while I made a fool of myself.

Speaker 2 (33:57):
Okay, last, but not least, Uncle.

Speaker 3 (33:59):
Mitch ched You and I have been working together now
for a seventh NFL season, And like a lot of
our talent, you're a.

Speaker 2 (34:07):
Real busy guy.

Speaker 3 (34:08):
You're busy being an executive doing meetings and such. You know,
a lot of our maniacs excimon are busy with you know,
handicapping Sam Houston, State or MLB stuff plus rates or whatever.
And like a lot of our talent, you're also made
to do ad reads by me for our network. Unlike
the rest of our talent, though, I learned that you
will read absolutely anything I put in front of you,

(34:30):
Ron Burgundy style with almost no feedback, You'll just knock
it out and you're onto the next thing, which is
a gift, and I do appreciate that. Unfortunately, I did
decide to take advantage of that, and over basically a
full calendar year, anytime we had a real ad read
to do, I would also write and make you read
a second entirely phony and increasingly ludicrous adread, which you

(34:54):
would happily knock out with almost no feedback whatsoever. And
once we'd gotten a lot of them, we cut them
together into a montage that Simon has now seen for.

Speaker 2 (35:05):
The first time.

Speaker 3 (35:06):
OCASEI skips all company meetings and and I just want
to say, I'm really proud of you, and we'll play
it right now so everyone can can have the context.
Please enjoy chad reading entirely fabricated sponsorship reads.

Speaker 1 (35:22):
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sea's delicious bounty. Captain Kinkaid Seafood Express, has you covered deliciousness?
Ahay Simon, Would you think.

Speaker 2 (37:22):
I loved it? As someone that's watching it, It's like,
how does this guy not know that these things are fake?

Speaker 1 (37:26):
Yeah, listen, I'm a professional. If someone is paying us,
I give it my all. I read it with enthusiasm.
I respect Matt Mitchell's time. I respect Matt Mitchell as
the producer of this show. If he says we got
to read, I say great, I'm going to go in.
I'm going to read it with gusto. The words I

(37:47):
don't know what they are. I am just reading them
with gusto. Matt Mitchell, you disrespect in my time and
my talent. This might be the last show you ever do.

Speaker 3 (37:56):
Yeah, it would be worth it because I will say
one ying Yang Twins, if you're listening, we'd love to
get in business with you. You guys are the best.
My wife loved that read the most. I'll also note
that a couple of times, when you'd stumble in them,
you'd go like, oh, this is kind of a weird one.
I'd want to totally crack up and lose it. So

(38:17):
I would react to that by just shouting at you,
because that was I need to react in a big
way to cover that I was laughing. So I'd be like,
shut up, Chad, just finish reading it, and you'd be like, okay, Jesus,
all right. So yeah, I almost lost it a couple
of times, but we uh, we stuck the landing. I'm
proud of you, and I look forward to taking advantage
of you in a similar way when you're least suspecting it.

Speaker 1 (38:37):
In the future, your suspect Matt Mitchell, and I am
onto you. I will be questioning everything from now on.
All right, Simon, it's time for an ad read, A
real ad read. Our producer Matt Mitchell does look incredibly
confident this week, full of zeal with a renewed lust

(38:57):
for life. I think some of his hair may even
be growing back, and I assumed it was because his
Buffalo bills are headed back to the AFC Championship Game.
Upon closer inspection, I was mistaken. It's because he's decked
out head to toe in the comfort of Tommy John
and with a special sale for our listeners. You two

(39:18):
can enjoy the comfort Matt Simon and I experience from
head to toe. Join the comfortable men and women who've
left thousands of five star reviews raving about Tommy John
as they enjoy maximum comfort. Simon, why will you be
wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?

Speaker 2 (39:38):
Because comfort is king.

Speaker 1 (39:40):
Right now, you can shop Tommy John dot com slash
favorites and get twenty five percent off your first order.
Save twenty five percent at Tommy john dot com slash Favorites.
That's Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. Buffalo at Kansas City.
This is the primetime game. Some would say it's the
main event. Kansas City is a one and a half

(40:01):
point favorite. At least they were as we came on
the air. I have not checked the number. In the
last you know, forty minutes, the total is forty seven
and a half. Before we get into it, I do
want to say I love our watchers and our viewers
and our listeners because the Saquon Barkley Russian prop that
started at one hundred and twenty seven and a half

(40:24):
is now up to one hundred and twenty nine and
a half. So good for you guys from jumping on
that so fast way to move the market. Here we
go again, Simon AFC Title Game, Patrick Mahomes short favorite.
We both loved it one and a half on Sunday night.

Speaker 2 (40:40):
Simon says, give me the Chiefs minus one and a half.

Speaker 1 (40:45):
Simon says Chiefs minus one and a half.

Speaker 4 (40:48):
When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says,
This line's gonna go up to two two and a
half by kicking my opinion, I just I do think
the professionals will come in on this chief side.

Speaker 2 (40:58):
It's it really is a game where you know, not
to take anything from this way. From this Bill's season,
it's been incredible. I think even Bills fans would tell
you this was supposed to be, you know, win the division,
maybe get in as a four to three seed. Happiest
hell to be at this spot and Obviously, when you're
carrying whatever it is, thirty million, it could be a

(41:20):
dead cap because of Stefan Diggs. It's a big deal.
They have an aging defense. We've heard ad nauseam how
they have a small, undersized defense that can be run on.
We know the deal. It's it's Josh Allen. It's the
magic of Josh Allen. So if you're something that is
betting him here, you're basically that's all you can hang
your hat on. You're just betting on the year of
Josh Allen. And again the reason I thought he was

(41:40):
the MVP, him and paying many the only All pros
ever to have no thether all pros on their team. Like,
that's an insane stat This guy was an All Pro.
I mean we talked that. You didn't do it alone. Obviously,
it's a full team. The offensive line cooks the running
back like he has weapons. But it is all Josh Allen.
Like that game again, the Rave that was the new

(42:01):
Josh Allen, the smart Josh Allen that doesn't make mistakes,
shoot himself in the foot, Josh Allen. I mean, you
know I was waiting for it. I don't know about you, Chaid.
I was waiting for it in that game, Like I
was like, one's coming with Josh. He's gonna throw one.
He's gonna be he's gonna get passed, he's gonna be impatient,
because you could see that second half he was getting
pissed off. He was like, why is mcderman not let
me just run this offense right now? Why we keep

(42:22):
running into these seven front walls? And he didn't, He
didn't do it, Like I really tend my hat to him.

Speaker 3 (42:30):
Great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they
have to do.

Speaker 2 (42:37):
It's that's my favorite part about this is seeing the
growth in different players, and it's like that was the
next step for Josh was to get rid of the
stupid turner, especially in the road zone, and he's done that.
So yeah, sad into this game. No one's model should
have the bills of the favorite here. They should be
an underdog on this spot like the Chiefs. They're a
better team across the board. The number being below three

(42:59):
is just to respect that the bookmakers and a lot
of professionals have for Josh Allen and what he's done
this season and the fear I've been against him. Right,
that's another part of this. But you know, when I
dove into this game, the first thing I thought to myself, Chad,
was I would handicap this totally different if this was
an Orchard Park rather than it's an Arrowhead. And that
to me is the difference. I mean, Matt Mitchell knows

(43:19):
the only games they've lost this year, what's the big
common de factor in all those games? It's on the road.
Like they were perfect at home this season, but on
the road it was just a different story. You know,
they lost the Ravens, we all remember that in September
ten to thirty five. Then they lost to Houston, a
game we loved. Then they had that you know, crazy
game against the Rams that josh Awen did everything he

(43:39):
could still fell short, right because of this defense. They
gave up forty four points. They lost forty two to
forty four, insane win. The next week against the Lions
were like, seriously, he was full on god mode. They
went forty eight to forty two. Like we're talking insane
numbers here. And then obviously we don't really account it.
They had lost the New England Patriots end of the
season and on the road. And you know, when I

(44:02):
break it, all down with this Bill's team. It's like
it's all about what kind of josh Allen's gonna show
up here, Chad, Like I know, betting the Chiefs here,
we could get easily get burned. If josh Awn has
the ball last, I just can't see him losing it,
like this is his year. It really is like it's
his moment. That's why I love all the conversation around
Lamar getting too much shape for that game. It's like, well,
if you would have got the two pointer, the game

(44:23):
would have been tied. Yeah, josh Awn had a minute
thirty two timeouts, Like that game was dead, it was over.
And you know when I look at this game here,
it's the same type of view. If if josh has
the ball and last, I do think I'll get burned here.
But I mean you talk Sunday night. I do think
it's about the number here and one and a half.
To me, that's great value. Like it's below the key

(44:43):
number of two, which I talk all the time about
that Ravens game landed on two. We see it all
the time now though it's it's too has become such
an important number. So that's why I made it. Simon
says Chad, I just when I saw that you could
still get one and a half right now at our
sponsor a BETHUSIXS five. It's like, tell the people go
a get I know depends on your look, but stay
here and you might already be stuck on the two.
But I really hope you can find the one and
a half. It's just such a key number.

Speaker 1 (45:05):
I'm actually I'm shocked that it hadn't moved to already,
because the juice has been headed in that direction for
at least twenty four hours, so the fact that it's
still send at one and a half is a bit
of surprise. You beat me at the punch on the
Simon says, because I want to make this my execut decision.

Speaker 3 (45:21):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.

Speaker 2 (45:25):
Are you heavy on Honor's text to cut the executive decision?
Do it? I mean there's like four games to pick up.
I mean there are two games to pick from.

Speaker 1 (45:34):
So what I would like to do, because the other
thing I was going to do was grab the Chiefs
on the money line at minus one twenty five, because
that is still available, yeah, still a relatively good price.
I would like permission from you and from Matt Mitchell
as the partners and arbiters of our rules, that it's

(45:58):
not a cop out to be taking Kansas DIY on
the money line, because I do have reasons to want
to do it, and the number is so short that
it's not like I'm taking a six point favorite.

Speaker 2 (46:08):
What the fuck is happening?

Speaker 1 (46:11):
What the fuck is.

Speaker 2 (46:16):
Yeah, it's blow minus one fifty. I'll definitely yeah, Matt
Mitchell allowed, I'll all out. It's not that I am taken.

Speaker 1 (46:22):
My exact decision is Casey on the money line. Here's
a stat from Yeah, give me some stats in home
games in November or later when the temperature is forty
degrees or less. Mahomes is twenty three and two straight
up in his career. He's won twenty in a row,

(46:43):
twenty in a row, hasn't lost since losing to Tom
Brady in twenty nineteen. So I know, like, okay, great regression,
jinx whatever, Like it's Patrick Mahomes. And Brady actually said
something he was on Cowhard the other day. He said
something that I thought was just crazy smart. Why is

(47:04):
Patrick Mahomes so good in the playoffs Because more often
than not, especially at the end of the game, You've
got to stop him for four downs. And it's so
freaking hard to stop Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes four
straight downs for moving the ball and getting the first
down that they need. It just is. And so as

(47:25):
much as you are saying Josh Allen gets the ball
at the end, Patrick Mahomes gets the ball at the end.

Speaker 2 (47:29):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (47:30):
And I also think if Patrick Mahomes has a lead
and he has the ball with four minutes left, they
win that game. They don't give the ball up, and
I don't think the Bills can stop them. So that's
why I like the Chiefs. I'm really excited about our

(47:50):
futures conversation because right now, the Eagles have the shortest
odds and the Chiefs have the second shortest odds, and
so when we are talking about this on Thursday, I'm
excited to get into this a little bit more deeply.
I do have concerns. I have big, big concerns about
the Chiefs. Would you like to hear some of them?

Speaker 2 (48:12):
I love to hear so.

Speaker 1 (48:13):
All right, So the Chiefs running game not nearly explosive
as the Ravens, and that's how the Chiefs got themselves
or the Ravens got themselves back into the game against
the Bills because I do think that rush defense was
a little bit exploitable. Concern or not concerned for you?

Speaker 2 (48:37):
Not concerned?

Speaker 1 (48:38):
How come?

Speaker 2 (48:40):
I think Houston is like a legit, like top five defense,
especially against the run. The Bills are bottom of the barrel.
They're just they're undersized. This is an undersized team. And
I think Matt mullane might miss this game as well.
If you go back and watch that Ravens game chat,
he was he was the changer. Yeah, he was big
time and and he basically didn't play the final three

(49:01):
snaps of that game because of an injury. So you know,
mcdermot's been shut mouth about it, but just reading between
the lines, it seems like he is going to miss
that switch. To me, the defense that can't afford to
lose someone who's poorting him and against the Chiefs team
like this, it's going to be deadly for matchups for offensively.

Speaker 1 (49:18):
Also might be missing wrap in the secondary and they
might be down two actually two defensive backs, two starters.
So okay, thank you for that. Here was a great
you know this this conversation about Patrick Mahomes and the
flopping and the penalties, and we talked about it, like
I love grouchy Troy Aikman. He's become my favorite announcer.

(49:42):
I think his attitude and approach and honesty with everything.
He's just entered the fucket. I'm a Hall of Famer
and I'm Troy Ikman making eighteen million year. I don't
give a shit what I say anymore.

Speaker 2 (49:51):
He's not Tony Kohneheiser, but he's good.

Speaker 1 (49:53):
He's he's great though. He's great, So I at first
I was like, are the refs going to be cautious
calling penalties on the homes giving the blowback this weekend?
Will they get a call from the league office? Do
you have any concerns about that? And then I have
something I heard from on the Ryan Roscilla pod which
blew me away.

Speaker 2 (50:12):
No, because even if you go, you don't watch it.
Like the thing I love about Troy against im mad
about was that that is when he slid in the
middle of the field and the two defenders hit above
his head and they flagged it right unnecessary roughness. They
flagged it because if those two dudes collide and meet
at Momes's head, the three peete is over. That dude
is concussed dead on the field. That's why they threw

(50:34):
that flag. Like they don't want it to be ended
because of a dirty hitter or an injury. They want
it to be ended because they lose a game. That
was the whole reason the reps were throwing those flags
to protect the guy. It's like, that's why I love
Troy Ikman losing a shit about It's like, Troy, you
probably could have played for five more years if they
would protect you the same way. Dude, Like it's just
he just like again, I know you love me. He
sounds like it just a bitter old man that's just

(50:55):
tired of how soft the league has gotten. But it's like,
we need this league to be soft. We all have
gone through seasons of backups. It is the worst ever
watching just terrible quarterback play in this league. So that's
why they need to protect guys, especially a guy like Mahomes.
So yeah, that that was, you know, the flop I
think was what really pissed him off, which everyone online

(51:16):
got pissed off about. But that wasn't even flagged. So again,
people think that Chiefs got all these flags when you
probably break it down it's probably closer to fifty to
fifty than people realize. But I guess, you know, as fans,
we just get pissed off about this stuff. So yeah,
it's it's low hanging fruit. I'm with him, though, it
pisses me off to watching Mahomes get all these flags
on Keith third downs.

Speaker 1 (51:33):
Well, for the record, Craigman's always been grumpy. I remember,
you know, I've been a reporter for a long time.
You have with Sports Illustrated. I went down to SI
in nineteen nine, to Dallas in nineteen ninety four. We
did an entire week with the Cowboys. We had full access.
We did an entire issue of Sports Illustrated about the
week with the Cowboys. Me and Rick Tallender was the

(51:54):
senior writer who was writing.

Speaker 2 (51:56):
Thirty Years of the Cowboys favorite time period.

Speaker 1 (51:58):
Yeah, it was great, right. It was like the early nineties,
and you knew exactly where to hang out, what clubs
they were at, Like you'd go hang out. Oh my god,
it was amazing, right. But I remember sitting with Aikman
in the locker room, and this was when the NFL
was changing a lot of the balls and sort of
making quarterbacks use different balls, and he was in the

(52:19):
locker room testing out a bag of balls, and just
so a he's like this fucking league they keep trying
to fuck think, like he was just so angry about
having to use different balls. Like he clearly just can
be a grouchy guy, which I've come to appreciate, which
is insane.

Speaker 2 (52:36):
Imagine imagine being that good looking, having the career he's had,
and then being grouchy. Will never make sense.

Speaker 1 (52:41):
I fucking love it. Uh Risillo had a great stat.
Here's a trivia for you. The past two years, Kansas
City opponents have been flagged for forty eight penalties in
the fourth quarter in ot of one score games. How
many have the Chiefs had in the same time period
in the same circumstances.

Speaker 2 (52:59):
Like I said, fifty to fifty, it is forty seven, yeah,
right right right near it. So yeah, that's that's what
I mean. We're just we're stupid fans. I mean, let's
be serious here. That's that's how we are. We we see,
we see that they get the calls because it's in
these big moments. But it's because the Chiefs are always
playing in these big games, and you know, it's been
making the rounds today or yesterday. That Chris Jones flag

(53:21):
against Tom Brady. You know that that was the last time,
like you just said, the last time he lost this game.
It was that game on a fourth down, Brady gets
an insane call, goes down, ties the game, or wins
the game in overtime. It's like, you know, they give
the breaks to the guys. That's just how it is.
He's always gonna get the calls because it's my homes.
But you just broke it down. It's not as egregious

(53:42):
as we make it out to be. But you know
that's we talk on the time. The refs dictated all
of these games, even that that Bills game, that ghost
holding call. So Lamar has that pick the Bills of
the ball, josh An has a perfect pass. There should
be third and three. They called a ridiculous holding playing
against the Bills. It wasn't even whold. You just smacked
the guy's arms down. So instead of being second and three,

(54:04):
it back to help to wherever it was second and nineteen,
and then they went three and down and they punted it.
So now i'd hear everyone today say, well, that picked
name hurt Lamar, and it's like, yeah, because the refs
made that call. So that's why. I mean, we talk
all the time like you're gonna get your bad calls
every game. And like most fans, I just I hate
the Chiefs, So no matter what, I'm gonna bitch about
the flag. So that's just how it is.

Speaker 1 (54:26):
The Bills rush defense rush offense is insanely good right now.
The best rush defense by success rate in the NFL
this past year was the Broncos. They allowed successful rushes
thirty three point six percent of the time. In the
wild card game, the Bills had a fifty percent success rate,

(54:46):
the best against the Broncos all season. The next week,
the second best rush defense by success rate was the Ravens.
The Bills ran all over the Ravens fifty five point
six percent success rate. Should I be concerned about the
Bills dominating on the ground against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (55:08):
Yeah, I mean they obviously have a good run game,
But it comes back to Spags. We trust Spags, don't we.
I mean he's been good to us. So yeah, like
you said, there's gonna be numbers that are gonna point
to this Bill's team. But just overall, I just I
can't get there because of the number. Brother, That's that
to me. The same thing with the Bills last week.
I told you it was like it's all about the

(55:30):
number here. If I was getting a little more at
anything gottter than plus two auto play, that came out
to be the right idea. The same thing here. It's like,
if you get Josh on a plus three, I'm happy
to take a position on him, But anything below that,
I just think, well, we just talked about it's an
over valued team, and I don't want to get too
sucked into the weeds with the numbers because we talked

(55:50):
about it last year. Like the Chiefs, they do this
to us like they have the twenty second ranked offense,
whatever the hell it is, and then none of it
makes sense. We know people, but we're living it like
that's that's the toughest part here where coming into this one,
I'm trying to find an angle to take Josh Allen
because I loved last week. I've loved this whole season
with him, and I want him to break down the curse.

(56:12):
Like we know the history here he's zero and three
against Mahomes and you know another funny part at another meme,
I love that's going around is poor Josh Allen Bills fan.
Even if they win this game, they got to face
an NFC East team in the super Bowl, no matter what.
So he could slay a bunch of demons and dragons
for this organization. He could get through, get over the hump,

(56:33):
get through Mahomes and arrow ahead, and then take on
an NFC East team to take them down as well.
So I get the love and why again another thing
in the media, everyone's talking Bill super Bowl. Everyone's picking
them now, everyone's all in because we're all sick of
this Chiefs team and Mahomes magic. But we know we're
getting great value here. How can we not take this number?
One and a half? Is just so insane to me
that we're actually still getting this number, Like you just said,

(56:56):
I thought we'd come in today in to be two
and I was gonna have to scramble find As Simon says,
that's why I try to jump ahead of you and
grab it, because I was like when you did some
anything in the Eagles game, like shit, Chad. Chad might
be on the Chiefs here, but we agree, this is
just it's too good of a number to pass on,
right now, there's so much value on this number at
this point. So yeah, it's it's tough because the heart,
the heart wants the Bills. I think any fan with

(57:18):
a soul wants the Bills in that fan base to
get to the super Bowl and win it. But it's
just a bad spot and this just doesn't feel like
the right team with Josh Allen, Like, eventually, I feel
like you will get over the hump. I can't see
it here, Like he just doesn't to me. He doesn't
have the dogs around him. But like you said, it's
all laid out there. If they can run the ball
no turnovers with him, he has the ball last. Like
you said, whoever is the ball last controls that clock, Chad,

(57:40):
that's who's gonna win. And we know that bet in
this game. That's why it is a coin flip game.
And to me, that's why you need to take the
value in the Chiefs the coin flip game. The value
is on this team right now because it's under the
two number of keys, So under the key number of two.
If you're just being patient, you want to bet the Bills.
I saw a late night a bunch of two twos
and a half's popping, especially off. I think I'll get

(58:01):
there by game time because I do think Chiefs money
will come in eventually as this week goes along.

Speaker 1 (58:05):
Here as part of my training. I have no soul,
so I don't I don't care if Josh Allen slays
his demons. And I love Matt Mitchell to death and
like his happiness is so important to me, and his

(58:26):
happiness during our entire relationship, going back to when he
was just a guy who listened to behind the Bets
and emailed me when I was at ESPN, nothing has
meant more to me outside of my family than his
happiness and growth in his career. But I don't care
if Josh Allen slays his demons. I think he's a

(58:48):
lovely guy. I want the Chiefs. I want history, I
want a threepeat, I want dominance. I want things that
have never been done before. That's what I'm rooting for.

Speaker 2 (59:00):
Yeah, I gotta say I'm a little ashamed of you.
I'd just like to ask you something. How much is enough?

Speaker 1 (59:07):
Hey?

Speaker 3 (59:07):
Sorry, this is Matt the producer. I'm just interjecting after
the fact the show's over. I'm just re listening to
this and I heard that line from Chad. He wants
to root for something that's never happened. He's rooting for history,
and that is why he's choosing against the Buffalo Bells
and for the Kansas City Chiefs to make the Super Bowl.

(59:29):
It feels like a totally incoherent point of view and
one of the most as nine arguments for batting or
rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (59:39):
Here a win or lose.

Speaker 3 (59:40):
Bill's probably lose inconsequential to me in this regard, But
I'm sorry that you guys heard that. Instead of cutting it,
I'll just let this rebuttal speak for itself.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
I like to root for teams to be historic, and
I think the Chiefs can be historic, and I actually
get to like rooting for them. Two better coach, much
better defensive coordinator. I've got the best quarterback in a generation,
the best tight end in a generation against the middle

(01:00:12):
of the Bills d that can't stop anybody. Even when
Matt Mulano was playing give me the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (01:00:19):
I didn't want to do too much of the numbers
who we were running up against the time. But yeah,
that's something we didn't get to it more on. But
just the numbers against tight ends like you saw, Isaiah,
I like you Mark Andrews. They felt like they're always
open when Lamar could find them, And you think, we
really think it's going to change here against you know,
arguably the greatest tight end it's ever played football and Kelsey.
So there are a lot of matchups that do favorite

(01:00:40):
this Chiefs team, but you kind of nail to how
the Bills can't pull off this upset. It really is
all about that run game, ball control and Josh Allen
and you know, we know Mahome is going to get
his We also know they're gonna sputter. Like you said,
they've been inconsistent offensively all season, running the ball and
a lot of things. So there are ways for the
Bills to do it. But I am happy we're both
at a greens here because it was no fun last

(01:01:02):
week going against you and then having to buil you
Sunday night for your love for Lamar. So I'm happy
we're both in love with us. Number on this Chiefs
team in minus one and.

Speaker 1 (01:01:09):
A half Likely and Andrews. By the way, Isaiah Likely
and Mark Andrews against the Bills combined for nine catches
one hundred and thirty nine yards in one touchdown and
Mark Andrews was wide open for a game time two
point conversion. And you and I are in such a
mind meld that I already had that stat.

Speaker 2 (01:01:25):
Love it.

Speaker 1 (01:01:25):
We searched it yesterday. All Right, We're going to dig
in more on both these games on Thursday. Plus, we're
gonna reveal the futures matchups bet that Simon and I
both made before the season began, separate from each other,
that we talked about on the show that is still
in play, and so we're going to talk about some

(01:01:47):
hedging strategies, and we will also talk about the Super
Bowl futures we like with the four remaining teams heading
into conference championship weekend on Thursday. As a reminder, the
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