January 26, 2025 • 34 mins
The Super Bowl stage is now set, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking for a championship three-peat against the Philadelphia Eagles. Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are elated with the results, cashing big futures tickets as well as sweeping their selections from earlier in the week. As producer Matt Mitchell picks up the broken pieces of his life and tries to move forward, the guys recap both conference championship contests and quickly preview a Super Bowl LIX matchup full of betting intrigue. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night
Conference Championship Round episode. What a day of Conference Championship
games it was. We will review the results of our
(00:32):
bets from the day, preview the early lines for the
Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Simon Hunters
Philadelphia Eagles. I'm joined as always by my co host,
my companion, Mike ca and padre My BFF Professional Better
Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
And Oh so I am in Chad. How are we doing?
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Your Philadelphia Eagles are in the Super Bowl? Man, they
are playing the Kansas City Chiefs. What a game between
the Bills and the Chiefs. We will get to that.
We will get to the Eagles commanders. We'll get to
the early look at our Super Bowl take in a second.
The Chiefs opened as one and a half point favorites.
We loved the Eagles at minus six today never a
(01:17):
sweat kind of We love the Chiefs at minus one
and a half and the money line that game was
everything We were hoping it would be. Uh, we're having
a really nice run here in the playoffs. We also
both had huge, huge future bets involving the Chiefs and
the Eagles. I had the matchup at twenty eight to one,
(01:37):
so this was a particularly enjoyable sweat. You have the
Chiefs beating the Eagles at fifty five to one, but
you got so many futures in this matchup that you're
feeling pretty great. Just give me your first reaction to
the Eagles being in the Super Bowl right now.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
So many emotions. You know, it is, brother, it's like
you can't believe it. You fall in love with.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Your team, especially your home team, and it's the best.
It's really the best, and it's the best feeling because
you know that nothing lasts forever like it. It You
could just be the bottom of the league for the
next twenty three years, which a lot of Diere Eagles
fans are in their fifties and sixties, that's what most
of their life was. It's only been recent that the
Eagles have been this type of team that you know,
(02:17):
can even make these type of runs. So yeah, pretty surreal.
Being in the sports book, obviously, it's filled off your
dominant because the area I live in, you know, like
literally was in the city at the books and the
amount of just grown men crying, that's that's the funniest
feeling because you just know everyone, you know, we're all fans,
we bet on these teams, but we also deep down
it's like, you know, you're fan first is you know
(02:38):
the money. Someone like me, I don't mind betting against
it because it's like it's part of my job.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
But the normal fan.
Speaker 4 (02:44):
The everyday worker, you know, that was that was, you know,
everything for them. So yeah, I'm gonna enjoy because I
know what's up ahead and I'm playing the Chiefs, and
I know that this could just be my super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Winning the NFC in itself, in the.
Speaker 4 (02:54):
Path Mahomes era is a super Bowl just because this
man is so dominant.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
But yeah, right now, you know, sitting on.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
A fifty burger, what the Egles just did, It's like,
I'm just gonna enjoy it. Highest scoring game ever, most
points ever scored by a team in the championship game
in the NFL history, So pretty special group this team.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Double nickel for the Philadelphia Eagles. And let's also like
feel so bad for Matt Mitchell like, I don't know
if that's what losing regular looked like in his head.
That catch at the end was so much closer. We'll
get to it. Yeah, let's line it up here. Catch
(03:32):
every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those
enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like
and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page as a reminder.
Of The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty
five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
(03:52):
ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, more,
whatever the moment, It's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five.
Must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling Problem called one eight hundred gambler
(04:16):
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply before we get to the games.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
This is really fun. People love what we're about to do.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Here we have the new Bet three six ' five
Super Bowl prop contest. This is this is a tradition
going back to when I started behind the Bets at
ESPN with bookmaker Bob Scucci.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
The ogs of.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
The podcast will remember this if you're new to the show,
it is It is such a fun contest. So what
happens is we will ask you to send your custom
bet live and ready to accept action on bet three
(05:04):
six five.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
You have a chance to get.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Your Super Bowl prop up on Bet three six five's board.
I put that in quotes. You just got to follow
some simple rules, okay. The bets must adhere to State
Gaming Commission regulations. Every part of the bet must be
(05:27):
settled on the field of play. No will they show
Taylor Swift on TV kind of stuff. It must be
on the field of play, in the in the box
sport kind of stuff. The winning submissions always have a
clever name. For example, last year the winner was will
Brock Purty score and octopus the touchdown plus a two
(05:50):
point conversion. The prop was called the Brock to Puss.
Eight years ago for the Falcons Patriots, the winner was
a prop about Matt Ryan passing stats called the Millennium Falcon.
The winner gets an Action Network prize, a chance to
come out of the show talk to me and Simon
(06:11):
about it. The pick will go live on the bet
three sixty five website. Email those submissions podcasts at actionnetwork
dot com, Matt Mitchell, do.
Speaker 5 (06:22):
We have a.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Podcasts? Sorry? Do we have a deadline?
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Email podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. Do we have a
deadline of when people have to get these up?
Speaker 5 (06:38):
We have to submit to bet through sixty five for
approval on Friday, so you'll have this episode in our
Tuesday and Thursday episode. But make sure to get those
in early enough. And I don't care if you submit
a hundred of them, as long as they all adhere
to the Gaming Commission rules.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
So we love them.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
It's a phenomenal contest. People go like, real people are
going to bet on. You're gonna get real action on this,
and it's super fun.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
All right.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Eagles were six point favorites. They were our big balls
bet of the week. It was a fascinating day to
day Simon. We pointed this out several times and I
talked about this on the Herd with Colin. The public
was all over the underdog lower seeds on the road
against the most dominant defense in the NFL and against
(07:27):
the greatest quarterback other than Tom Brady who's ever lived
In this first game, preponderance of tickets on Jayden Daniels,
which is why it sort of became our big Balls
bet of the week. One of the key factors for us.
We thought Jalen Carter against the interior of the Commander's
offensive line, especially without Sam Cosmi, was going to be
(07:48):
a factor. He blew up the first play of the
game against the replacement. But what a game this was.
I mean, there's so much to unpacked her Saquon, the
way he audibled Jalen audibled into that first play that
he ran for sixty yards in a touchdown. My feeling
(08:10):
about the Eagles is they left a lot of opportunities
on the field and there was a moment where it
felt like we were gonna not lose this game, but
maybe not cover this game.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
No, everyone loved Washington like you're saying, coming to this game,
and you know it's that Jason Kelsey song no one
likes us, No one likes us, we don't care, which
is actually Premier League song that Eagles fans just basically
stole made of their own. But it's the truth. No
one liked the Eagles. Everyone was just betting the Commanders.
They're trying to find reasons they're I mean, we joked
about they kind of regressing that straw as it was
(08:44):
like none of that stuff was logical. The only thing
he kept going back to was well they have the
better quarterback, which hard to argue about after watching that kid,
just playing that game. I mean, it is incredible how
good Jane Daniels is.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
And you know that.
Speaker 4 (08:59):
Type of game where that opening drive, they go three
for three on fourth downs and for some reason the
coach kicks the field goal. I honestly breathed like a
sigh of relief, and it was just like, Okay, they
are a little scared here, because that, to me, it
was like a really shocking moment where you had the
Eagles exhausted on their first drive. Yeah, and he kicks
the three, Like you said, first play touchdown, Barkley and
(09:22):
it basically, you know, like I said, I was at
the book, I turned the guy next to me and
it's like this this game, if they can't stop Barkley,
they're they're they're basically what we talked about, they're dead.
Like they're gonna have to stock the box, which honestly
is what the Eagles don't mind teams doing because they
can go over the top of them and they haven't
had to.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Because the run game has been so strong.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
And yeah, that brutal beat anyone that had his overprop
I think he finished with one to eighteen three touchdowns
obviously goes under, but you know what we talked about
kind of played out that Eagles one of the best
running teams.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
In all football.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Washington one of the worst runshing defenses in football.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
You know, Eagles had seven rushing touchdowns in this game.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
Yeah, again, not to show the Dallas Cowboys will had
a rushing touchdown. Yeah, Dallas Cowboys had six rushing touchdowns
all season. The Eagles had seven in one game. And
you know it's people talk about, you know, Jalen Hurts,
They bad mouth them, and I've realized, like I really
did this other day, that I don't know if you
remember the movie Shallow how Chad. Yeah, yeah, Eagles fans
(10:31):
are literally shallow Howe with our quarterback.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Like to us, he's a ten.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
To everyone else, they see a two or of three,
but to us, he's an absolute ten in every way.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
And it's like he just wins. And in that game,
you know, he had.
Speaker 4 (10:46):
A couple of big time throws and it's just like
I get why people hate him.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
I get why they hate.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
The Egles, but it's like he's been to two Super
Bowls and people just disrespect his name. Is if Tua
could be doing the same thing for this Eagles team
and it's just it's not logical. So yeah, I'm happy
he showed out big. And it's like, I can't believe it.
Fifty five points in a championship game against you know,
a divisional rival that I expect to be facing for
(11:11):
the next five to ten years. It's it's a great
feeling and it played out exactly how we talked chat.
So it feels good to know the fans got the
over and they got the Eagles minus six.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
So let me ask you this because I have so
many thoughts on Jalen Hurts I thought he was having
one of the best games I've seen him have, maybe
since the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
You know, he was up and down last year.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
You won't have him that Pittsburgh game in December. But
I get where you're coming from.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
Yeah, Like, you know, and.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
He was when he was decisive, he was accurate, he
was making good throws. But there were so many times
he is a heart attack in the pocket. If he
is not getting it out quickly, you know, he is
running backwards, he's running in circles. And I thought Tom
Brady did a real good job of pointing out many
(12:03):
times where he didn't throw the ball when he had
the guy a step open or an opportunity where you
just got to let it go. And I want your take, like,
as a fan and as someone who is a football expert,
is that an issue? Why do you think he does that?
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Like?
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Is it an Achilles heel? Am I looking too much
into it. Don't laugh at me. It's it's real.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
It's just it's hard to take it serious where it's
like he's in the super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
You know, yes, he's in the super Bowl, but but
but they left so many my notes on the game
where they kept leaving opportunities on the field. And when
when they were when they were up thirty four twenty
three and Jake Daniels had the ball, you can't tell
(12:55):
me that you felt like that game was in the bag.
It was not in the bag. If Austin Eckler doesn't fumble,
I am not really confident that the Eagles are going
to be able to stop Jaden Daniels on that drive.
I was doing the Gamblers math like I had the
Eagles four and a half because we bet them, you know,
right away last Sunday, I'm like, holy shit, I'm not
(13:17):
even going to cover the four and a half after
being up like eighteen points because I had so much,
so little faith in the Eagles ability to stop Jayden
Daniels when he started to get on a role.
Speaker 4 (13:28):
If not for that fumble, I'm laughing, because they scored
fifty five points, so they didn't have a defensive touchdown
or a special team stack.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
They went on a roll all day. They went on
a huge role.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
I know, but it's a.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Role because they dominated on the ground.
Speaker 4 (13:42):
Listen, you want perfection and you're just you're barking up
the wrong tree. That's just not it's not real what
you're looking for in life and especially here in football. Brother,
It's like, yeah, do I want Jalen Hurts to be
twenty seven of twenty eight? Passing today would have been
pretty sweet?
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Cheat, didn't I say? He had a great game? I said,
I know.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
But you're saying, are you worried that he's not forcing
it in there? It's like you haven't figured it out yet.
Jalen Hurts his whole job is not to lose the game.
That has been his job this entire season. This is
Saquon Barkley's team, and you talk to anyone the Eagles,
they tell you the same thing.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
He's the best athlete we have.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
He's generational, he's once in a lifetime type of guy.
And it's like, that's what this team is. Don't don't
let Hurts beat you. Let the other team make the mistakes.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
And they did so.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Yeah, Jayden Daniels, you watch him today making on these
big time throws. It's like, yeah, that's just not Hurts game.
Hurts is the second round pick. The guy has weaknesses,
but he plays in the system. He's incredible. It's like
you can fight, you can question it, but it's like
the biggest stat that matters is wins, and there's a
bunch of nerds out there there say, wins aren't QB stats?
Speaker 2 (14:49):
Have it?
Speaker 4 (14:50):
Have those people okay, like enjoy not winning games and
having a QB Like Justin Herbert, it's I'm happy for you,
like live live on to drink it in. I want
a guy like Hurts that wins games and he can
you know, in those tight moments he makes big time
throws in big time plays like that. AJ Brown throw
everyone's balls like you, same thing you're talking about. Everyone
got tight. It went into your stomach, like, oh my god.
(15:12):
Fourth down, Hurts has taken a shot down thirty yards downfield.
We haven't seen that in what a month? Throw the
ball thirty yards downfield. So I'm with you, Chad. It's
it's never easy. But yeah, as an Eagles fan and
some of that bet heavy on them today, just laugh
because it's like that was the perfect game they could play,
Like Jayane Daniels, like you said, he was so good
he finished. Their team finishes with twenty three points and
(15:34):
that kid played really well in that game.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
That's how dominished this Eagles team is.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
With twenty three points and I feel like his completion
percentage might not have been above fifty five percent.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
Sixty percent, But yeah, I know where you're coming from.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
No, No, I think I think he was like, what
was he twenty seven to forty five?
Speaker 4 (15:50):
Like it was twenty ninety eight, all right, So like
he's crazy, fantastic.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Yeah, it's crazy, it's amazing.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
But the Eagles defense, when they had to lock it down,
they did. And I think, I really can't wait to
talk about this Chiefs game against the Eagles, and I'm
so excited to break it down for two weeks. Like
we got a dream matchup here with a line that
is one and a half, maybe moving to two in
(16:18):
some places because the juice is already in that direction.
Money line in some places was one twenty and now
it's up to one twenty five. The prop for Saquon
in the Super Bowl right now, the Russian prop one
hundred and twelve and a half. Don't forget. Now it's
up to one fourteen and a half. Evan is reporting,
don't forget. We talked about this, you know, and you
(16:41):
just said it coming off the top. The prop opened
at one twenty seven and a half for the NFC
title game went up to one thirty and a half,
the highest Russian prop ever actually closed about one twenty
two or one twenty three and a half came down.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
So I don't mind. I don't mind one.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
Twelve and a half against the Chiefs defense that are
struggling against the run. Goodness, gracious, tell me before we
go to the Chiefs. Uh, why are they.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Going for the toushbush from the two and a half
yard line?
Speaker 2 (17:16):
Honestly, I'd have to see what situation you're talking about.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
To me, it's just about eating up clock in time
where like that, you know, they kept having them jump
off sides and they just wasted an extra.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
Minute or two.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
H No, but they did like that was they were
going for the tush push from the two and a
half yard line and they got stopped. They got lucky
that there was some kind of I think off sides,
but that wasn't on purpose. And then they had it
at the one. But multiple times it looked like they
were toush pushing from two yards two and a half yards,
which to me was like, what the fuck are we
(17:46):
doing here?
Speaker 4 (17:47):
It makes sense, Yeah, The only one I question was
they did it from the two yard line when Saquon
got them down there, and I was like, why do
you not just give it the Saquon here? You're not
on the one, you're on the two or the three.
Why not give the saqua instead? You just said they
toush pushed. Yeah, two or three times I got in,
But I think it's just they know they're gonna get
your rartitude at a time, they just.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Eats up more clocks.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
So yeah, again everyone talking about easy to touch bushes.
Eagles got stopped on it a couple of times in
that game. And same with Josh Allen today. Yeah, like
that's why I love when people talk about banning it.
It's like you can stop it, you just have to
game plan and have it the right the right type
of players to do it. So yeah, pretty insane the
fact that, uh, you know Hurts three rushing touchdowns and
(18:27):
I know our guy Chris Raybond gave out Saquon three
rushing touchdowns plus three not was it plus three fifty?
Raybond gave it out, So yeah, pretty insane hit by
Chris on that sae Quon three touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Unbelievable game. Uh.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Thrilled for the Eagles. Thrilled that we bet the Eagles
thrilled that we got to talk about it all week
and feel like, why are people on the commanders. This
doesn't make sense. It feels like it's you know, we.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
Got a lot of heat, a lot of pros, and
it's just like they were like, you guys are too
dugging on your futures. I'm like, no, So this is
like what the definition of being a pro is. Everyone's
telling you you're wrong and you're on the favorites at
home getting no respect with the books. It really lined
up so perfect. That's why I love these type of spots.
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Yeah, Like I felt so happy to be on the
side of the books and against the public and beyond
the better overall teams that were favorites at home. Like
you never get that normally you're like, all right, I
gotta take the shittier team that's getting the points. I
think there's the value, Like you never get the privilege
(19:32):
of being on the better team that is the favorite
because the public is enamored with these transcendent quarterbacks, including
Josh Allen Buffalo of Kansas City. Kansas City closes a
one and a half point favorite. By the way I
think of this game, kicks off half an hour later.
They close at one. Then the money line moved from
one twenty five down to one fifteen. Before the game,
(19:56):
the Chiefs were our Simon says at one and a half,
they were a exec decision on the money line. Arrow
had sounded so freaking loud through the TV, did it not?
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yeah, it was crazy.
Speaker 4 (20:08):
I'm going into it, Like I think Stuck got a
good tweet about there's something the way CBS does it
that's different than Fox. I don't know what it is,
but they do have better coverage to gets you more
ramped up. Like I really felt that in the coverage
of the CBS compared to Fox. Again, maybe it's because
it's nighttime that helps too, but I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
I was like so far up head into that game.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
I was so pumped and this game, God, did it
live up to the hype. It felt like in the
first half the Bills were so tight, right they like
Josh Allen that first series two near interceptions, he had
a fumble that he recovered himself, the way they lost
(20:47):
control at the on that touchdown where they had the
personal foul, It just felt like they were really edgy
and jittery. And I think that football that fumbled by
my Homes. They were up what was it ten three,
something like that, seven three, and they were driving like
the twenty three yard line and Mahomes pulled it out
(21:10):
on the RPO and the Bills recovered. I think that
saved the game for them. I think it might end
up being a blowout if not for that, because the
Chiefs were doing whatever they wanted to on offense in
the first half.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
Yeah, this is the type of game we need to
watch two or three more times, just because it felt
like there was just so much going on in this
game and instant classic. Obviously, it's the best feeling ever
when you talk about modeling numbers and it comes in
right on the number you.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Said it should be.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
So I said, if it was Bills plus three, I
would have been more than happy to take the plus three,
and it wasn't. We stuck to our numbers, and fuck man,
it's hard, like it's hard to go against Josh Allen,
and especially where what we talked about there's a human
element of this. Why everyone's sick of the Chiefs, Like
people are like, aren't you your happier butt buddies won
(21:54):
the Chiefs It's like, why would I like the Chiefs.
I hate the Chiefs. They really I didn't it for
a year.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
I love the Chiefs. This is exactly what I'm rooting for.
I want history, I want dominance. I want Patrick Mahomes
to win ten Super Bowls. I love watching him play.
I said to my kids sitting on the couch, like
I almost got sentimental, dude, this is magical what we're watching.
His ability to see the defense, read the defense, make
(22:23):
decisions and get the ball out of his hands in
the smallest windows from the craziest angles that play at
the end of the game to worthy like that was
a miracle throw that he made. And it's just like,
I hope they win every year that he's a quarterback.
Speaker 3 (22:40):
I just love amazing.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
Yeah, And it's why I basically told you before the
year if I wasn't putting any money on anyone else
in the AFC except the Chiefs, because I said exactly
what you just said. There minus the part of loving
this guy. It was more so of this is historical.
We're seeing something so special, so unique. The fact they
can keep all these players, all their coaches on that staff.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
It's very unique group.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
And if they get you at home in the playoffs,
They're gonna get you. It's incredible and it really is
a chess match, like you know, the Bills they totally
flipped that game at one point, right, They basically got
the touchdown before half, get the three and out they
needed to start the second half or not three and out,
but they punted the Chiefs. They go right down, score again,
(23:25):
Chiefs next possession, they punted again, and it was like, Oh,
this is happening, this is lining up for the Bills.
But no, they just wait. They wait that fourth down play.
You know, I get Bills fans being pissed. I mean,
you could go either way on that one that you know,
Josh Allen got that first down, did he not?
Speaker 2 (23:42):
But Josh Allen didn't get it.
Speaker 4 (23:44):
Mahomes got the ball, like you just said, knows what
he needs to do, right, and what he needs to
do is he runs the ball in the playoffs. That's
the biggest difference we see in his career. He just
there's something they do.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
Andy reading him.
Speaker 4 (23:55):
They talk about like that designed run for that last touchdown. Yeah,
vintage vintage Andrew Reid play call. Bill didn't see it
coming because why would they they've never run that play
this season.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
I gain to you.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
We can go back and look, they didn't run that play.
Lead blocker Travis Kelcey, So yeah, it's the whole reason
we want.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
We bet them. We loved it, We loved our spot,
our position on it.
Speaker 4 (24:14):
And yeah, it's like you just said, it's it's history,
like we've never seen.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
Anything like it.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
And anytime you think, oh, someone's finally got him, like
before you jumped on here, we were talking before everyone
else got on it. It's like Josh Allen had the
ball down three. I saw it, I could see it
happened him driving the field getting the touchdown, And that's
how you beat Mahomes.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
That's how you have to do.
Speaker 4 (24:36):
You can't tie him there, you can't kick the three
there because you're gonna somehow lose that game. You have
to drive the field get the touchdown. Like they just
couldn't do it.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Well, they did it here tonight.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Tell them, yo, that one.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
Had some sting on it.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
Yeah, heartbreak obviously for Bills fans. But yeah, if you're
a Chiefs better someone like us, it's it's the best
because you just keep trusting the process, You trust the numbers,
not only the models, but the trends. Right, the trends
were all over this Chiefs team in the spot. It's
just it's a unique spot. It's mahomes at home below
free degrees. It's just automatic basically from here on out.
(25:14):
So I'm glad we learned our lesson Chad last year
because we went against them, got burned in that Ravens game,
and since then we've just been on this Chiefs team
and they've been paying us big time in this playoff run.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Andy Reid knew what he was in for when he
went forward on fourth and one from their thirty nine. Yeah,
midway through the second quarter. Yeah, that ended with the
Xavier Worthy touchdown. By the way, let's get some shout outs.
Unconvinced me, obviously, you had the Chiefs minus one and
a half and you had the Eagles minus six. Sean
(25:47):
Kerner had Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown. If you listen to
the six Pack with Stucky and Raybond the Action Network podcast,
Raybaund on that show gave out the Eagles to have
more punts than the Commanders that cashed. He gave out,
(26:09):
as you said, Saquon three plus touchdowns that cashed. It's
been a banner playoffs for Action Network analysts.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
It really has.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
Like it was a tough season, but the playoffs have
been phenomenal. Hopefully people have been paying attention. The Bills
had six, by my count, turnover worthy plays that they
kept the ball on. They had those two year picks
from Allen, three fumbles from Allen, all of which he recovered,
(26:38):
and the one by Ray Davis.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
And it was all going the way.
Speaker 4 (26:42):
I mean, they scored, and they scored two fourth down touchdowns.
They're like you talked about their fumbles bounced their way, right,
Josh Allen picked it up. I think their rookie running
back Davis fumbled bounced right to them. Like they definitely
had bounces going their way in that game.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
So I almost feel like, you know, let's give let's
give a minute to that fourth down. I almost And
also on a previous fourth down, same drive, Josh Allen
fumbled the ball and recovered it. It almost felt like.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Karma.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
There had to be if we're thinking, thinking and speaking mathematically,
there was regression on that fourth down play, right, even
though it was a judgment call by the officials. Not
every single thing, not every fumble not every fourth down
was going to go the Bill's way.
Speaker 4 (27:29):
No, definitely, But like I said, though, they just they
felt like the team of destiny, this Bill's team, that
they're finally going to do it, and they were getting
the bounces and you know, the Chiefs weren't getting those
tiki tac calls that they're used to, right they felt like,
you know a lot of the calls were not going
their way. And the Eagles game, it felt like every
call was going the Eagles way. Like they're a home team,
(27:51):
they were definitely getting the refs on the home side.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
Did not feel like that way.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
In the Chief Spills game, that felt like a pretty
clean game both sides.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
You know.
Speaker 4 (28:01):
Again, the Josh all thing I can't get over is
he's out there with freaking Mac Collins making this dude,
you know, making these big time catches and these insane moments,
and it's like, it's just incredible what Josh Allen's done
with a bunch of just trash, and you know him
and James Cook, that's just something. Yeah, it's just something
incredible to build off of, Like that run Cook had
(28:22):
in that fourth down. You know, like they said that
the top tier is Derrick Henry and Saquan and then
right below that are guys like Cook, like just absolute
game changers, incredible running back. And yeah, like we say
all the time, brutal for Bills fans. I know they
don't want to hear we probably have two Bills fans
even left listening to the show after being against us
(28:43):
all a week on the Chiefs. But you know, you
got Josh Allen every year. Like I said, this is
to me one of the worst teams he's gonna have.
You had seventy million dead cap space. You know, there's
just so much to work with going forward. But you
know Joe Brady, the fact he's turning down jobs right now, it's.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
It's gonna be all good Bill's faces.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
But obviously, oh and form in the playoffs against Mahomes,
it's brutal.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
You're running.
Speaker 4 (29:07):
You're one in a lifetime generational talents running into the
Michael Jordan of the sport.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
So it is brutal. I get I get the hurt
right now coming.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
From day you know it's Karl Malone and the John
Stockton and dads, and yeah, you're so good.
Speaker 3 (29:22):
Can I go?
Speaker 1 (29:24):
Just the misfortune of being a generationally great quarterback playing
against a historically great quarterback. All right, Uh, the the
look ahead lines for the Chiefs and the Eagles one
and a half, one and a half Kansas City minus
one and a half.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
That is what it opened at.
Speaker 1 (29:45):
As I said, this thing was moving before we even came.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
Out in the air.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
I bet it at one and a half. I also
bet the Chiefs on the money line at minus one twenty.
The line now at bet three five is minus two.
What are your We're we're not going to go like
into the deepest, deepest breakdown, but what are your initial thoughts?
Speaker 4 (30:10):
Yeah, like you just said, if you want to know
what the pros are going, what models are going to
have this ad? I said it last week. I had
the Chiefs favorite. So you want to grab Chiefs minus
one and a half. Now, I got no issue with
it if that's your position. But yeah, I have so
much I need to dive into here and really break down.
And you know, obviously we all know the deal. Eagles
are the better team. They're gonna be a model. Is
(30:32):
a better team than most people. It's just my homes
is different, the Chiefs team is different, and computers just
don't understand it.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
And that's the toughest.
Speaker 4 (30:39):
Part here, where it's like you kind of need to
really dig into a lot of stuff that's not normal
to dig into.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
And you know, I'm.
Speaker 4 (30:46):
Looking forward to a lot of phone calls here because
it's going to be really insane breaking this down with
a lot of guys this week, just because it's it's
so opinion based and we knew that this number is
probably gonna move. I'm shocked to see it's already moving
to two already, so pretty interesting that respected people already
taking their money, not taking it out of like we
say at the time, you're not cashing that ticket for cash,
You're cashing it and rolling it over.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
So not shocking.
Speaker 4 (31:09):
You know, we talked about we really love and respected
this Chiefs team. I bet heavy on them in this spot.
I'm not going to take out that cash. I'm gonna
roll it over, most likely on the Chiefs. So yeah,
if you if you want to take that side, take it.
I'm not a rush because it feels like by the
time I get off this call, marke and missed the
one and a half. So yeah, I'm excited to break
this one down. It's it's gonna be a fun fun,
(31:29):
fun two weeks here coming up.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
But you haven't bet the Chiefs might as one and
a half yet.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
No, because you know the deal.
Speaker 4 (31:34):
I told you I got five K to win over
three hundred k, like I got. I have such an
insane position and you know, like my phone has just
been blown up. Not stop because not only did our
you know, our show do well my clients.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
My boss is like everyone, we're all living the dream
right now.
Speaker 4 (31:51):
Like my two my two futures were Eagles and Chiefs
both hit NFC title bets, AFC title bets, both cashed.
And yeah, the future market right now, you know, it's
it's rare.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
Chat.
Speaker 4 (32:03):
We're gonna come on here and give about fifty five
to the ones in August that hit so.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
And twenty eight to ones my man.
Speaker 4 (32:09):
So yeah, it's it's it's a nice spot to be
in right now. So that's why I'm not rushing, brother, Like,
if if I didn't have a position on it, I'm
with you, I probably would be rushing. I can be
patient here because I do want to really dive into
this one. And I'm just saying to the fans of
the show, if you didn't grab the plus two hundred
grab the minus one and a half right now if
you want to.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
All right, we will talk a lot more about this
game over the next few weeks. We will have our
rotation where Simon and I are gonna.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
Break this down.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
We will also have our regular props breakdown all the
good stuff that we look to and love for Super
Bowl week. This was our final Sunday night episode of
the season. What a freaking season. Thanks to everybody for
joining us. What I love about this season is our
audience were always bigger.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
On the days. We got crushed on us on the
days and we did okay.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
Nobody wanted to hear us talk about when we did well,
but they loved here and when we had to come
on impure misery.
Speaker 3 (33:18):
But we appreciate every.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
Single person who came in with us on Sundays. Our
next episode is live on Tuesday one thirty pm Eastern
on Action Networks YouTube channel.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
Be the first of our four Super Bowl episodes.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
Downloadus some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,
we lose five stars.
Speaker 3 (33:38):
Say whatever you want feedback is it? Get until Tuesday.
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
Help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight
(34:00):
hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night
Conference Championship Round episode. What a day of Conference Championship
games it was. We will review the results of our
(00:32):
bets from the day, preview the early lines for the
Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Simon Hunters
Philadelphia Eagles. I'm joined as always by my co host,
my companion, Mike ca and padre My BFF Professional Better
Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
And Oh so I am in Chad. How are we doing?
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Your Philadelphia Eagles are in the Super Bowl? Man, they
are playing the Kansas City Chiefs. What a game between
the Bills and the Chiefs. We will get to that.
We will get to the Eagles commanders. We'll get to
the early look at our Super Bowl take in a second.
The Chiefs opened as one and a half point favorites.
We loved the Eagles at minus six today never a
(01:17):
sweat kind of We love the Chiefs at minus one
and a half and the money line that game was
everything We were hoping it would be. Uh, we're having
a really nice run here in the playoffs. We also
both had huge, huge future bets involving the Chiefs and
the Eagles. I had the matchup at twenty eight to one,
(01:37):
so this was a particularly enjoyable sweat. You have the
Chiefs beating the Eagles at fifty five to one, but
you got so many futures in this matchup that you're
feeling pretty great. Just give me your first reaction to
the Eagles being in the Super Bowl right now.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
So many emotions. You know, it is, brother, it's like
you can't believe it. You fall in love with.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Your team, especially your home team, and it's the best.
It's really the best, and it's the best feeling because
you know that nothing lasts forever like it. It You
could just be the bottom of the league for the
next twenty three years, which a lot of Diere Eagles
fans are in their fifties and sixties, that's what most
of their life was. It's only been recent that the
Eagles have been this type of team that you know,
(02:17):
can even make these type of runs. So yeah, pretty surreal.
Being in the sports book, obviously, it's filled off your
dominant because the area I live in, you know, like
literally was in the city at the books and the
amount of just grown men crying, that's that's the funniest
feeling because you just know everyone, you know, we're all fans,
we bet on these teams, but we also deep down
it's like, you know, you're fan first is you know
(02:38):
the money. Someone like me, I don't mind betting against
it because it's like it's part of my job.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
But the normal fan.
Speaker 4 (02:44):
The everyday worker, you know, that was that was, you know,
everything for them. So yeah, I'm gonna enjoy because I
know what's up ahead and I'm playing the Chiefs, and
I know that this could just be my super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Winning the NFC in itself, in the.
Speaker 4 (02:54):
Path Mahomes era is a super Bowl just because this
man is so dominant.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
But yeah, right now, you know, sitting on.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
A fifty burger, what the Egles just did, It's like,
I'm just gonna enjoy it. Highest scoring game ever, most
points ever scored by a team in the championship game
in the NFL history, So pretty special group this team.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Double nickel for the Philadelphia Eagles. And let's also like
feel so bad for Matt Mitchell like, I don't know
if that's what losing regular looked like in his head.
That catch at the end was so much closer. We'll
get to it. Yeah, let's line it up here. Catch
(03:32):
every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those
enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like
and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page as a reminder.
Of The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty
five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
(03:52):
ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, more,
whatever the moment, It's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five.
Must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling Problem called one eight hundred gambler
(04:16):
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply before we get to the games.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
This is really fun. People love what we're about to do.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Here we have the new Bet three six ' five
Super Bowl prop contest. This is this is a tradition
going back to when I started behind the Bets at
ESPN with bookmaker Bob Scucci.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
The ogs of.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
The podcast will remember this if you're new to the show,
it is It is such a fun contest. So what
happens is we will ask you to send your custom
bet live and ready to accept action on bet three
(05:04):
six five.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
You have a chance to get.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Your Super Bowl prop up on Bet three six five's board.
I put that in quotes. You just got to follow
some simple rules, okay. The bets must adhere to State
Gaming Commission regulations. Every part of the bet must be
(05:27):
settled on the field of play. No will they show
Taylor Swift on TV kind of stuff. It must be
on the field of play, in the in the box
sport kind of stuff. The winning submissions always have a
clever name. For example, last year the winner was will
Brock Purty score and octopus the touchdown plus a two
(05:50):
point conversion. The prop was called the Brock to Puss.
Eight years ago for the Falcons Patriots, the winner was
a prop about Matt Ryan passing stats called the Millennium Falcon.
The winner gets an Action Network prize, a chance to
come out of the show talk to me and Simon
(06:11):
about it. The pick will go live on the bet
three sixty five website. Email those submissions podcasts at actionnetwork
dot com, Matt Mitchell, do.
Speaker 5 (06:22):
We have a.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Podcasts? Sorry? Do we have a deadline?
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Email podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. Do we have a
deadline of when people have to get these up?
Speaker 5 (06:38):
We have to submit to bet through sixty five for
approval on Friday, so you'll have this episode in our
Tuesday and Thursday episode. But make sure to get those
in early enough. And I don't care if you submit
a hundred of them, as long as they all adhere
to the Gaming Commission rules.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
So we love them.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
It's a phenomenal contest. People go like, real people are
going to bet on. You're gonna get real action on this,
and it's super fun.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
All right.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Eagles were six point favorites. They were our big balls
bet of the week. It was a fascinating day to
day Simon. We pointed this out several times and I
talked about this on the Herd with Colin. The public
was all over the underdog lower seeds on the road
against the most dominant defense in the NFL and against
(07:27):
the greatest quarterback other than Tom Brady who's ever lived
In this first game, preponderance of tickets on Jayden Daniels,
which is why it sort of became our big Balls
bet of the week. One of the key factors for us.
We thought Jalen Carter against the interior of the Commander's
offensive line, especially without Sam Cosmi, was going to be
(07:48):
a factor. He blew up the first play of the
game against the replacement. But what a game this was.
I mean, there's so much to unpacked her Saquon, the
way he audibled Jalen audibled into that first play that
he ran for sixty yards in a touchdown. My feeling
(08:10):
about the Eagles is they left a lot of opportunities
on the field and there was a moment where it
felt like we were gonna not lose this game, but
maybe not cover this game.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
No, everyone loved Washington like you're saying, coming to this game,
and you know it's that Jason Kelsey song no one
likes us, No one likes us, we don't care, which
is actually Premier League song that Eagles fans just basically
stole made of their own. But it's the truth. No
one liked the Eagles. Everyone was just betting the Commanders.
They're trying to find reasons they're I mean, we joked
about they kind of regressing that straw as it was
(08:44):
like none of that stuff was logical. The only thing
he kept going back to was well they have the
better quarterback, which hard to argue about after watching that kid,
just playing that game. I mean, it is incredible how
good Jane Daniels is.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
And you know that.
Speaker 4 (08:59):
Type of game where that opening drive, they go three
for three on fourth downs and for some reason the
coach kicks the field goal. I honestly breathed like a
sigh of relief, and it was just like, Okay, they
are a little scared here, because that, to me, it
was like a really shocking moment where you had the
Eagles exhausted on their first drive. Yeah, and he kicks
the three, Like you said, first play touchdown, Barkley and
(09:22):
it basically, you know, like I said, I was at
the book, I turned the guy next to me and
it's like this this game, if they can't stop Barkley,
they're they're they're basically what we talked about, they're dead.
Like they're gonna have to stock the box, which honestly
is what the Eagles don't mind teams doing because they
can go over the top of them and they haven't
had to.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Because the run game has been so strong.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
And yeah, that brutal beat anyone that had his overprop
I think he finished with one to eighteen three touchdowns
obviously goes under, but you know what we talked about
kind of played out that Eagles one of the best
running teams.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
In all football.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Washington one of the worst runshing defenses in football.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
You know, Eagles had seven rushing touchdowns in this game.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
Yeah, again, not to show the Dallas Cowboys will had
a rushing touchdown. Yeah, Dallas Cowboys had six rushing touchdowns
all season. The Eagles had seven in one game. And
you know it's people talk about, you know, Jalen Hurts,
They bad mouth them, and I've realized, like I really
did this other day, that I don't know if you
remember the movie Shallow how Chad. Yeah, yeah, Eagles fans
(10:31):
are literally shallow Howe with our quarterback.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Like to us, he's a ten.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
To everyone else, they see a two or of three,
but to us, he's an absolute ten in every way.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
And it's like he just wins. And in that game,
you know, he had.
Speaker 4 (10:46):
A couple of big time throws and it's just like
I get why people hate him.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
I get why they hate.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
The Egles, but it's like he's been to two Super
Bowls and people just disrespect his name. Is if Tua
could be doing the same thing for this Eagles team
and it's just it's not logical. So yeah, I'm happy
he showed out big. And it's like, I can't believe it.
Fifty five points in a championship game against you know,
a divisional rival that I expect to be facing for
(11:11):
the next five to ten years. It's it's a great
feeling and it played out exactly how we talked chat.
So it feels good to know the fans got the
over and they got the Eagles minus six.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
So let me ask you this because I have so
many thoughts on Jalen Hurts I thought he was having
one of the best games I've seen him have, maybe
since the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
You know, he was up and down last year.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
You won't have him that Pittsburgh game in December. But
I get where you're coming from.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
Yeah, Like, you know, and.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
He was when he was decisive, he was accurate, he
was making good throws. But there were so many times
he is a heart attack in the pocket. If he
is not getting it out quickly, you know, he is
running backwards, he's running in circles. And I thought Tom
Brady did a real good job of pointing out many
(12:03):
times where he didn't throw the ball when he had
the guy a step open or an opportunity where you
just got to let it go. And I want your take, like,
as a fan and as someone who is a football expert,
is that an issue? Why do you think he does that?
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Like?
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Is it an Achilles heel? Am I looking too much
into it. Don't laugh at me. It's it's real.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
It's just it's hard to take it serious where it's
like he's in the super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
You know, yes, he's in the super Bowl, but but
but they left so many my notes on the game
where they kept leaving opportunities on the field. And when
when they were when they were up thirty four twenty
three and Jake Daniels had the ball, you can't tell
(12:55):
me that you felt like that game was in the bag.
It was not in the bag. If Austin Eckler doesn't fumble,
I am not really confident that the Eagles are going
to be able to stop Jaden Daniels on that drive.
I was doing the Gamblers math like I had the
Eagles four and a half because we bet them, you know,
right away last Sunday, I'm like, holy shit, I'm not
(13:17):
even going to cover the four and a half after
being up like eighteen points because I had so much,
so little faith in the Eagles ability to stop Jayden
Daniels when he started to get on a role.
Speaker 4 (13:28):
If not for that fumble, I'm laughing, because they scored
fifty five points, so they didn't have a defensive touchdown
or a special team stack.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
They went on a roll all day. They went on
a huge role.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
I know, but it's a.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Role because they dominated on the ground.
Speaker 4 (13:42):
Listen, you want perfection and you're just you're barking up
the wrong tree. That's just not it's not real what
you're looking for in life and especially here in football. Brother,
It's like, yeah, do I want Jalen Hurts to be
twenty seven of twenty eight? Passing today would have been
pretty sweet?
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Cheat, didn't I say? He had a great game? I said,
I know.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
But you're saying, are you worried that he's not forcing
it in there? It's like you haven't figured it out yet.
Jalen Hurts his whole job is not to lose the game.
That has been his job this entire season. This is
Saquon Barkley's team, and you talk to anyone the Eagles,
they tell you the same thing.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
He's the best athlete we have.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
He's generational, he's once in a lifetime type of guy.
And it's like, that's what this team is. Don't don't
let Hurts beat you. Let the other team make the mistakes.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
And they did so.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Yeah, Jayden Daniels, you watch him today making on these
big time throws. It's like, yeah, that's just not Hurts game.
Hurts is the second round pick. The guy has weaknesses,
but he plays in the system. He's incredible. It's like
you can fight, you can question it, but it's like
the biggest stat that matters is wins, and there's a
bunch of nerds out there there say, wins aren't QB stats?
Speaker 2 (14:49):
Have it?
Speaker 4 (14:50):
Have those people okay, like enjoy not winning games and
having a QB Like Justin Herbert, it's I'm happy for you,
like live live on to drink it in. I want
a guy like Hurts that wins games and he can
you know, in those tight moments he makes big time
throws in big time plays like that. AJ Brown throw
everyone's balls like you, same thing you're talking about. Everyone
got tight. It went into your stomach, like, oh my god.
(15:12):
Fourth down, Hurts has taken a shot down thirty yards downfield.
We haven't seen that in what a month? Throw the
ball thirty yards downfield. So I'm with you, Chad. It's
it's never easy. But yeah, as an Eagles fan and
some of that bet heavy on them today, just laugh
because it's like that was the perfect game they could play,
Like Jayane Daniels, like you said, he was so good
he finished. Their team finishes with twenty three points and
(15:34):
that kid played really well in that game.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
That's how dominished this Eagles team is.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
With twenty three points and I feel like his completion
percentage might not have been above fifty five percent.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
Sixty percent, But yeah, I know where you're coming from.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
No, No, I think I think he was like, what
was he twenty seven to forty five?
Speaker 4 (15:50):
Like it was twenty ninety eight, all right, So like
he's crazy, fantastic.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Yeah, it's crazy, it's amazing.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
But the Eagles defense, when they had to lock it down,
they did. And I think, I really can't wait to
talk about this Chiefs game against the Eagles, and I'm
so excited to break it down for two weeks. Like
we got a dream matchup here with a line that
is one and a half, maybe moving to two in
(16:18):
some places because the juice is already in that direction.
Money line in some places was one twenty and now
it's up to one twenty five. The prop for Saquon
in the Super Bowl right now, the Russian prop one
hundred and twelve and a half. Don't forget. Now it's
up to one fourteen and a half. Evan is reporting,
don't forget. We talked about this, you know, and you
(16:41):
just said it coming off the top. The prop opened
at one twenty seven and a half for the NFC
title game went up to one thirty and a half,
the highest Russian prop ever actually closed about one twenty
two or one twenty three and a half came down.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
So I don't mind. I don't mind one.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
Twelve and a half against the Chiefs defense that are
struggling against the run. Goodness, gracious, tell me before we
go to the Chiefs. Uh, why are they.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Going for the toushbush from the two and a half
yard line?
Speaker 2 (17:16):
Honestly, I'd have to see what situation you're talking about.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
To me, it's just about eating up clock in time
where like that, you know, they kept having them jump
off sides and they just wasted an extra.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
Minute or two.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
H No, but they did like that was they were
going for the tush push from the two and a
half yard line and they got stopped. They got lucky
that there was some kind of I think off sides,
but that wasn't on purpose. And then they had it
at the one. But multiple times it looked like they
were toush pushing from two yards two and a half yards,
which to me was like, what the fuck are we
(17:46):
doing here?
Speaker 4 (17:47):
It makes sense, Yeah, The only one I question was
they did it from the two yard line when Saquon
got them down there, and I was like, why do
you not just give it the Saquon here? You're not
on the one, you're on the two or the three.
Why not give the saqua instead? You just said they
toush pushed. Yeah, two or three times I got in,
But I think it's just they know they're gonna get
your rartitude at a time, they just.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Eats up more clocks.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
So yeah, again everyone talking about easy to touch bushes.
Eagles got stopped on it a couple of times in
that game. And same with Josh Allen today. Yeah, like
that's why I love when people talk about banning it.
It's like you can stop it, you just have to
game plan and have it the right the right type
of players to do it. So yeah, pretty insane the
fact that, uh, you know Hurts three rushing touchdowns and
(18:27):
I know our guy Chris Raybond gave out Saquon three
rushing touchdowns plus three not was it plus three fifty?
Raybond gave it out, So yeah, pretty insane hit by
Chris on that sae Quon three touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Unbelievable game. Uh.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Thrilled for the Eagles. Thrilled that we bet the Eagles
thrilled that we got to talk about it all week
and feel like, why are people on the commanders. This
doesn't make sense. It feels like it's you know, we.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
Got a lot of heat, a lot of pros, and
it's just like they were like, you guys are too
dugging on your futures. I'm like, no, So this is
like what the definition of being a pro is. Everyone's
telling you you're wrong and you're on the favorites at
home getting no respect with the books. It really lined
up so perfect. That's why I love these type of spots.
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Yeah, Like I felt so happy to be on the
side of the books and against the public and beyond
the better overall teams that were favorites at home. Like
you never get that normally you're like, all right, I
gotta take the shittier team that's getting the points. I
think there's the value, Like you never get the privilege
(19:32):
of being on the better team that is the favorite
because the public is enamored with these transcendent quarterbacks, including
Josh Allen Buffalo of Kansas City. Kansas City closes a
one and a half point favorite. By the way I
think of this game, kicks off half an hour later.
They close at one. Then the money line moved from
one twenty five down to one fifteen. Before the game,
(19:56):
the Chiefs were our Simon says at one and a half,
they were a exec decision on the money line. Arrow
had sounded so freaking loud through the TV, did it not?
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yeah, it was crazy.
Speaker 4 (20:08):
I'm going into it, Like I think Stuck got a
good tweet about there's something the way CBS does it
that's different than Fox. I don't know what it is,
but they do have better coverage to gets you more
ramped up. Like I really felt that in the coverage
of the CBS compared to Fox. Again, maybe it's because
it's nighttime that helps too, but I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
I was like so far up head into that game.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
I was so pumped and this game, God, did it
live up to the hype. It felt like in the
first half the Bills were so tight, right they like
Josh Allen that first series two near interceptions, he had
a fumble that he recovered himself, the way they lost
(20:47):
control at the on that touchdown where they had the
personal foul, It just felt like they were really edgy
and jittery. And I think that football that fumbled by
my Homes. They were up what was it ten three,
something like that, seven three, and they were driving like
the twenty three yard line and Mahomes pulled it out
(21:10):
on the RPO and the Bills recovered. I think that
saved the game for them. I think it might end
up being a blowout if not for that, because the
Chiefs were doing whatever they wanted to on offense in
the first half.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
Yeah, this is the type of game we need to
watch two or three more times, just because it felt
like there was just so much going on in this
game and instant classic. Obviously, it's the best feeling ever
when you talk about modeling numbers and it comes in
right on the number you.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Said it should be.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
So I said, if it was Bills plus three, I
would have been more than happy to take the plus three,
and it wasn't. We stuck to our numbers, and fuck man,
it's hard, like it's hard to go against Josh Allen,
and especially where what we talked about there's a human
element of this. Why everyone's sick of the Chiefs, Like
people are like, aren't you your happier butt buddies won
(21:54):
the Chiefs It's like, why would I like the Chiefs.
I hate the Chiefs. They really I didn't it for
a year.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
I love the Chiefs. This is exactly what I'm rooting for.
I want history, I want dominance. I want Patrick Mahomes
to win ten Super Bowls. I love watching him play.
I said to my kids sitting on the couch, like
I almost got sentimental, dude, this is magical what we're watching.
His ability to see the defense, read the defense, make
(22:23):
decisions and get the ball out of his hands in
the smallest windows from the craziest angles that play at
the end of the game to worthy like that was
a miracle throw that he made. And it's just like,
I hope they win every year that he's a quarterback.
Speaker 3 (22:40):
I just love amazing.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
Yeah, And it's why I basically told you before the
year if I wasn't putting any money on anyone else
in the AFC except the Chiefs, because I said exactly
what you just said. There minus the part of loving
this guy. It was more so of this is historical.
We're seeing something so special, so unique. The fact they
can keep all these players, all their coaches on that staff.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
It's very unique group.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
And if they get you at home in the playoffs,
They're gonna get you. It's incredible and it really is
a chess match, like you know, the Bills they totally
flipped that game at one point, right, They basically got
the touchdown before half, get the three and out they
needed to start the second half or not three and out,
but they punted the Chiefs. They go right down, score again,
(23:25):
Chiefs next possession, they punted again, and it was like, Oh,
this is happening, this is lining up for the Bills.
But no, they just wait. They wait that fourth down play.
You know, I get Bills fans being pissed. I mean,
you could go either way on that one that you know,
Josh Allen got that first down, did he not?
Speaker 2 (23:42):
But Josh Allen didn't get it.
Speaker 4 (23:44):
Mahomes got the ball, like you just said, knows what
he needs to do, right, and what he needs to
do is he runs the ball in the playoffs. That's
the biggest difference we see in his career. He just
there's something they do.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
Andy reading him.
Speaker 4 (23:55):
They talk about like that designed run for that last touchdown. Yeah,
vintage vintage Andrew Reid play call. Bill didn't see it
coming because why would they they've never run that play
this season.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
I gain to you.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
We can go back and look, they didn't run that play.
Lead blocker Travis Kelcey, So yeah, it's the whole reason
we want.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
We bet them. We loved it, We loved our spot,
our position on it.
Speaker 4 (24:14):
And yeah, it's like you just said, it's it's history,
like we've never seen.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
Anything like it.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
And anytime you think, oh, someone's finally got him, like
before you jumped on here, we were talking before everyone
else got on it. It's like Josh Allen had the
ball down three. I saw it, I could see it
happened him driving the field getting the touchdown, And that's
how you beat Mahomes.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
That's how you have to do.
Speaker 4 (24:36):
You can't tie him there, you can't kick the three
there because you're gonna somehow lose that game. You have
to drive the field get the touchdown. Like they just
couldn't do it.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Well, they did it here tonight.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Tell them, yo, that one.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
Had some sting on it.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
Yeah, heartbreak obviously for Bills fans. But yeah, if you're
a Chiefs better someone like us, it's it's the best
because you just keep trusting the process, You trust the numbers,
not only the models, but the trends. Right, the trends
were all over this Chiefs team in the spot. It's
just it's a unique spot. It's mahomes at home below
free degrees. It's just automatic basically from here on out.
(25:14):
So I'm glad we learned our lesson Chad last year
because we went against them, got burned in that Ravens game,
and since then we've just been on this Chiefs team
and they've been paying us big time in this playoff run.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Andy Reid knew what he was in for when he
went forward on fourth and one from their thirty nine. Yeah,
midway through the second quarter. Yeah, that ended with the
Xavier Worthy touchdown. By the way, let's get some shout outs.
Unconvinced me, obviously, you had the Chiefs minus one and
a half and you had the Eagles minus six. Sean
(25:47):
Kerner had Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown. If you listen to
the six Pack with Stucky and Raybond the Action Network podcast,
Raybaund on that show gave out the Eagles to have
more punts than the Commanders that cashed. He gave out,
(26:09):
as you said, Saquon three plus touchdowns that cashed. It's
been a banner playoffs for Action Network analysts.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
It really has.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
Like it was a tough season, but the playoffs have
been phenomenal. Hopefully people have been paying attention. The Bills
had six, by my count, turnover worthy plays that they
kept the ball on. They had those two year picks
from Allen, three fumbles from Allen, all of which he recovered,
(26:38):
and the one by Ray Davis.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
And it was all going the way.
Speaker 4 (26:42):
I mean, they scored, and they scored two fourth down touchdowns.
They're like you talked about their fumbles bounced their way, right,
Josh Allen picked it up. I think their rookie running
back Davis fumbled bounced right to them. Like they definitely
had bounces going their way in that game.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
So I almost feel like, you know, let's give let's
give a minute to that fourth down. I almost And
also on a previous fourth down, same drive, Josh Allen
fumbled the ball and recovered it. It almost felt like.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Karma.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
There had to be if we're thinking, thinking and speaking mathematically,
there was regression on that fourth down play, right, even
though it was a judgment call by the officials. Not
every single thing, not every fumble not every fourth down
was going to go the Bill's way.
Speaker 4 (27:29):
No, definitely, But like I said, though, they just they
felt like the team of destiny, this Bill's team, that
they're finally going to do it, and they were getting
the bounces and you know, the Chiefs weren't getting those
tiki tac calls that they're used to, right they felt like,
you know a lot of the calls were not going
their way. And the Eagles game, it felt like every
call was going the Eagles way. Like they're a home team,
(27:51):
they were definitely getting the refs on the home side.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
Did not feel like that way.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
In the Chief Spills game, that felt like a pretty
clean game both sides.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
You know.
Speaker 4 (28:01):
Again, the Josh all thing I can't get over is
he's out there with freaking Mac Collins making this dude,
you know, making these big time catches and these insane moments,
and it's like, it's just incredible what Josh Allen's done
with a bunch of just trash, and you know him
and James Cook, that's just something. Yeah, it's just something
incredible to build off of, Like that run Cook had
(28:22):
in that fourth down. You know, like they said that
the top tier is Derrick Henry and Saquan and then
right below that are guys like Cook, like just absolute
game changers, incredible running back. And yeah, like we say
all the time, brutal for Bills fans. I know they
don't want to hear we probably have two Bills fans
even left listening to the show after being against us
(28:43):
all a week on the Chiefs. But you know, you
got Josh Allen every year. Like I said, this is
to me one of the worst teams he's gonna have.
You had seventy million dead cap space. You know, there's
just so much to work with going forward. But you
know Joe Brady, the fact he's turning down jobs right now, it's.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
It's gonna be all good Bill's faces.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
But obviously, oh and form in the playoffs against Mahomes,
it's brutal.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
You're running.
Speaker 4 (29:07):
You're one in a lifetime generational talents running into the
Michael Jordan of the sport.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
So it is brutal. I get I get the hurt
right now coming.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
From day you know it's Karl Malone and the John
Stockton and dads, and yeah, you're so good.
Speaker 3 (29:22):
Can I go?
Speaker 1 (29:24):
Just the misfortune of being a generationally great quarterback playing
against a historically great quarterback. All right, Uh, the the
look ahead lines for the Chiefs and the Eagles one
and a half, one and a half Kansas City minus
one and a half.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
That is what it opened at.
Speaker 1 (29:45):
As I said, this thing was moving before we even came.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
Out in the air.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
I bet it at one and a half. I also
bet the Chiefs on the money line at minus one twenty.
The line now at bet three five is minus two.
What are your We're we're not going to go like
into the deepest, deepest breakdown, but what are your initial thoughts?
Speaker 4 (30:10):
Yeah, like you just said, if you want to know
what the pros are going, what models are going to
have this ad? I said it last week. I had
the Chiefs favorite. So you want to grab Chiefs minus
one and a half. Now, I got no issue with
it if that's your position. But yeah, I have so
much I need to dive into here and really break down.
And you know, obviously we all know the deal. Eagles
are the better team. They're gonna be a model. Is
(30:32):
a better team than most people. It's just my homes
is different, the Chiefs team is different, and computers just
don't understand it.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
And that's the toughest.
Speaker 4 (30:39):
Part here, where it's like you kind of need to
really dig into a lot of stuff that's not normal
to dig into.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
And you know, I'm.
Speaker 4 (30:46):
Looking forward to a lot of phone calls here because
it's going to be really insane breaking this down with
a lot of guys this week, just because it's it's
so opinion based and we knew that this number is
probably gonna move. I'm shocked to see it's already moving
to two already, so pretty interesting that respected people already
taking their money, not taking it out of like we
say at the time, you're not cashing that ticket for cash,
You're cashing it and rolling it over.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
So not shocking.
Speaker 4 (31:09):
You know, we talked about we really love and respected
this Chiefs team. I bet heavy on them in this spot.
I'm not going to take out that cash. I'm gonna
roll it over, most likely on the Chiefs. So yeah,
if you if you want to take that side, take it.
I'm not a rush because it feels like by the
time I get off this call, marke and missed the
one and a half. So yeah, I'm excited to break
this one down. It's it's gonna be a fun fun,
(31:29):
fun two weeks here coming up.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
But you haven't bet the Chiefs might as one and
a half yet.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
No, because you know the deal.
Speaker 4 (31:34):
I told you I got five K to win over
three hundred k, like I got. I have such an
insane position and you know, like my phone has just
been blown up. Not stop because not only did our
you know, our show do well my clients.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
My boss is like everyone, we're all living the dream
right now.
Speaker 4 (31:51):
Like my two my two futures were Eagles and Chiefs
both hit NFC title bets, AFC title bets, both cashed.
And yeah, the future market right now, you know, it's
it's rare.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
Chat.
Speaker 4 (32:03):
We're gonna come on here and give about fifty five
to the ones in August that hit so.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
And twenty eight to ones my man.
Speaker 4 (32:09):
So yeah, it's it's it's a nice spot to be
in right now. So that's why I'm not rushing, brother, Like,
if if I didn't have a position on it, I'm
with you, I probably would be rushing. I can be
patient here because I do want to really dive into
this one. And I'm just saying to the fans of
the show, if you didn't grab the plus two hundred
grab the minus one and a half right now if
you want to.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
All right, we will talk a lot more about this
game over the next few weeks. We will have our
rotation where Simon and I are gonna.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
Break this down.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
We will also have our regular props breakdown all the
good stuff that we look to and love for Super
Bowl week. This was our final Sunday night episode of
the season. What a freaking season. Thanks to everybody for
joining us. What I love about this season is our
audience were always bigger.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
On the days. We got crushed on us on the
days and we did okay.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
Nobody wanted to hear us talk about when we did well,
but they loved here and when we had to come
on impure misery.
Speaker 3 (33:18):
But we appreciate every.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
Single person who came in with us on Sundays. Our
next episode is live on Tuesday one thirty pm Eastern
on Action Networks YouTube channel.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
Be the first of our four Super Bowl episodes.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
Downloadus some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,
we lose five stars.
Speaker 3 (33:38):
Say whatever you want feedback is it? Get until Tuesday.
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
Help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight
(34:00):
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Colin Cowherd
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