February 18, 2025 • 33 mins
Jason Timpf breaks down his top 15 contenders for the NBA Finals following All-Star Weekend. Jason discusses which teams slot into each of his five championship tiers including Jayson Tatum's Boston Celtics, Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Oklahoma City Thunder. Where do LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers come in after winning 10 of their last 12 games? Are Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks or Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks a bigger threat to Boston in the Eastern Conference? And how dangerous are Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors after acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat? Jason answers all these questions and more!
Timeline:
4:00 - Introduction
5:30 - "Championship or Bust" Tier
14:30 - "Appropriate Fear" Tier
29:15 - "High Variance" Tier
34:45 - "Puncher's Chance" Tier
38:15 - "Can't See It Happening" Tier
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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(01:38):
All right, Oldcode Hoops Tonight. Here at the volume heavy Tuesday,
everybody ovath. You guys are having a great week like
we always do during the all star break. We're gonna
take some time today to zoom out and take a
look at our contender rankings. We're gonna be ranking fifteen
teams today. You guys have the drip before we get started.
Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss
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(02:00):
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Facebook where we're releasing content throughout the year. And the
last but not least, keepdropping mailbag questions and the YouTube
comments so we can keep getting to them on Fridays
throughout the remainder of the season. So again, this is
our contender rankings are kind of a living document, right,
(02:21):
like stuff is moving around as we get more information.
I just wanted to kind of peg down a list
right here at this point in the season. I'm going
to break these teams into five tiers. Okay, And remember
this is not like our power rankings, our power rankings,
which we're gonna get back to doing starting next Monday.
Those are where we're just kind of shouting out the
teams that are playing well as of late, right and
(02:42):
more kind of focusing on the regular season. This is
strictly who do I think has the best chance to
get all the way to the lari Obrian Trophy, not
to win one series, not even to win two series. Strictly,
how likely I think these teams are to hoist the
Larry O'Brian Trophy. Our first tier is our top tier contenders.
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These are teams that are so good and that have
so much in the way of expectations that anything involving
them losing before even getting to the finals would be
considered a complete failure. These are teams that are championship
or bust. Starting with number one, the Boston Celtics have
been number one all year for me. They are currently
(03:25):
at DraftKings at plus two thirty five to win the title.
They've actually been supplanted as the favorite on DraftKings. Now
the Thunder at plus two twenty five are the favorites.
I don't like that value for OKC. I think it's
far more likely that OKAC gets beat in the West
than Boston gets beat in the East, and I'd pick
Boston over OKC head to head. So like, in terms
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of the betting odds, I don't think that's a good
price for OKAC, but they are currently the favorite to
win the title. Boston is the clear number one pick
to me because they have the hardest weakness to exploit.
They don't actually have a personnel weakness really at all.
They just have a personality weakness. Their top six in
offense defense and defensive rating or defensive rebounding, their top
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ten paint defense, their top five three point line defense,
and Cleaning the Glass currently has them as the number
one transition defense in the NBA. Their weaknesses they occasionally
play really shitty basketball in the regular season, and that
to me has so much more to do with just
malaise than anything else. They have a one to twenty
three offensive rating against the top ten teams in point
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differential according to Cleaning the Glass that ranks second in
the NBA, and they're also seventh in defense in those matchups.
In terms of win loss in those matchups, they have
a sixty nine win percentage against teams in the top
ten and point differential that ranks number one in the NBA.
Even over the Thunder, even over the Calves, I even
think they've been feeling a little bit of like a
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reverse version of what the Calves got in the early
part of the year, where like several Celtics are shooting
well below their norms from three, and I think that's
something that will normally over the tail end of the season.
To me, they're better than the Thunder for a few
key reasons. Number one, I think Jason Tatum has gotten
a lot better and is now on the same tier
as a guy like Shay Gilders Alexander, So I don't
see the Thunder is having some substantial star advantage like
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I looked at it as a problem for the Celtics
in years past. I also, too, think the Celtics are
far more experienced down the roster in the playoff setting
than OKAC is. Later on, I'm going to talk to
you guys about age and I'm gonna list some of
the ages of some of the players on both rosters,
and you guys will get a better feel for that.
But I do think experience is a big advantage for Boston.
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And then three, I think Boston's offense translates much better
to the postseason than Oklahoma City's offense does, and I
think the gap between these two teams defensively in the
playoff context is substantially smaller. So I think again, I
think Boston, what we're seeing from them, what we know
they can do is more reliable in the playoff context,
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and what we've seen from ok Oklahoma City, they're versatile too.
They can protect the rim, they have great switching looks.
They have big lineups, they have small lineups. They have
more players that can initiate offense than anyone in the league.
But at the same time, they have a ton of
dudes who can play off ball as play finishers, and
I think they have an easier path through the conference.
I think Boston is the clear cut championship favorite at
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this point. I think a lot of the stuff we've
seen from them that's looked bad at times this year
is mostly just dealing with the eighty two game regular
season after you've already won the trophy, and again, all
these other teams that we're talking about are just dealing
with another level of urgency. The Celtics are still a
clear Number one for me. Number two the Oklahoma City
Thunder on DraftKings at plus two twenty five to win
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the title. The main point of optimism for me with
the Thunder is their defense. They have the best defense
in the league and it isn't particularly close. The gap
between their defensive rating and the second best defensive rating
is the same as the gap between the second best
defensive rating and the tenth best defensive rating in the NBA.
They defend well in every single area like Austin does,
but they also force a ton of turnovers and get
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out and transition off of those turnovers, which is something
that Boston doesn't. The only thing that don't do well
on defense is they're not a good defensive rebounding team.
But that is just a real asset that they have
in any playoff series, the best defense in the league,
that's going to provide a lot of problems for teams
to deal with. I also think Oklahoma City has a
much better primary weapon to deploy on stars in terms
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of Lou Dort, who I think is a top tier
guy in that regard and just like a real asset
to just be able to put him on the other
team's best player and just know for a fact that
he's going to make that guy uncomfortable. He does it
against guards like Donovan Mitchell and BIG's of big old
wings like Luka Doncic, like he's just as versatile as
they get, just a huge weapon for that defense, and
statistically their offense is excellent. Their sixth and overall offensive rating,
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their fifth and half court offensive rating, and cleaning the
Glass has them is the fourth best transition offense in
the league. Shay is still the substantial favorite to win
the MVP on DraftKings right now, so every metric would
tell us that Oklahoma City is the best team in
the league. Again, like I mentioned earlier, even DraftKings has
them as the championship favorite. So why do I have
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Boston ahead of them? I think Oklahoma City's dominance in
this particular regular season is a bit inflated over their
playoff viability. I have consistently talked about over the years
about how young super athletic teams have a certain impact
in the regular season that older veteran teams struggle to match.
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It gets even more exaggerated by the fact that in
the regular season you don't have as much time to prep.
When you run into OKC for a single game on
a random Tuesday in February, it can catch you off guard.
You can get your butt kicked, especially when their defense
is built on aggression enforcing mistakes. Every single one of
their top eight minutes per game guys in their rotation
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is twenty six or younger. Three of them are twenty
three or younger. Here's the Celtics as a counter example
of their time eight rotation players. Only Jason Tatum is
twenty six or younger, and he's exactly twenty six. Three
of their top eight are in their thirties. Two of
them are over age thirty four. You think those guys
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are gonna bring the same level of nightly intensity that
Oklahoma City is bringing this year, of course not. When
you get to the postseason, two things happen that limit
the effectiveness of this hillacious style that Oklahoma City is playing. One,
all of the Vets start matching the level of intensity
that the young guys bring. Now, the young guys are
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still more athletic, but the gap shrinks as the Vets
engage for urgent basketball. And then two, you get to
prepare for several days for the matchup, and then even
within the matchup, you get two weeks to try to
solve the problem. Simple example. Last year, the thunder were
also a dominant, forcing turnovers, get out and transition type
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of team. Four regular season matchups against the MAVs, they
force sixteen turnovers per game and scored twenty four point
three points off of those turnovers in the regular season.
In the four losses to Dallas in the postseason, they
only forced fourteen turnovers per game, and they only scored
eighteen points off of them, more than six points less.
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That makes a substantial difference when you're splitting tiny margins
between two great teams. The problem they present the confusion,
the chaos, the transition attack. The effectiveness goes down in
the postseason because the vets are more up for it
and teams are more prepared for it. So the question
is how good are the thunder Really. They're awesome. They're
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top tier contender. I think they're the second most likely
to win the title. But the reality of who they
are as a team is somewhere between what they were
last year against Dallas and what they are now, somewhere
in the middle there, and I think that that puts
them firmly below the Boston Celtics. I think the biggest
problem they'll face in the postseason is role players making shots.
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Isaiah Joe is the only player to hit forty percent
of his threes against Dallas last year. Cason Wallace, Jaylen Williams,
Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren. That's Jaylen Williams, backup
center Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Chet Holmgren all shot
thirty three percent. Are worse in that series from three
when they've lost games. This year, it's been a similar issue.
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The offense bogs down nobody but SGA can hit a shot.
To be clear, if they shoot the ball well across
the board, their defense is so good they'll win the title.
I'm just skeptical that they'll shoot the ball well enough.
They're seventeenth and three point percentage this year their bottom
ten and spot up efficiency according to Synergy. Teams are
going to pack the paint, They're going to dare other
guys to make shots and shay to try to score
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a million points. That is the one thing that I
think makes them a lot more vulnerable than their record
would lead you to believe, if that makes sense. Moving
on to our second tier, calling this the appropriate fear tier.
These are teams that have pretty high expectations, Like if
any of these teams lost a first round series, it
would be considered a massive failure. But at the same time,
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they're obviously aware that Boston and OKAC are gonna be
really tough challenges for them that it's an uphill climb there.
But on the flip side, I think both OKC and
Boston should have an appropriate fear of these teams and
the reality that they could potentially upset them. I also
think all three of these teams are particularly particularly vulnerable
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to matchups that they probably need to avoid to get
where they want to go. Well, I'm actually gonna name
all three tiers here for an exit so I can
demonstrate the matchup weakness. The three teams I have in
this tier are the Nuggets, the Calves, and then the Lakers.
To me, if the Nuggets see Minnesota, they're probably gonna lose.
If the Calves see Boston, I think they're probably gonna lose.
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And if the Lakers see the Nuggets, I think they're
probably going to lose. And by the way, we're gonna
get further into this when we get to the Lakers.
They're the one team in this entire list that is
like I don't feel very strongly about because they're just
kind of loosely thrown in here because we've just seen
so little of them with Luco, we just don't know
what they're capable of. We'll talk more about that when
we get to the Lakers. Number three. The Denver Nuggets
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currently at plus fourteen hundred to win the title on DraftKings,
one of the best values that I think I see
on that list. I gave Denver the not here over
Cleveland for a simple reason. They present an unsolvable problem
for everyone in the league, including the Celtics and the Thunder,
which is not something that I think the Calves present.
Nicole jokicch is far and away the best player in
the world and a guy that none of these teams
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can really do anything with. Again, we'll talk more about
the Calves in a minute, but I just don't think
they present that type of problem. The Nuggets have achieved
a similar level of unguardability to what they had in
twenty twenty three, in large part because Jokic got his
jump shot back in a huge way. He's been one
of the very best jump shooters in the league this year.
Here's a simple stat to demonstrate the difference between this
year's Nuggets offense and previous years. This year, the Nuggets
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have a one to twenty six point one offensive rating
with Nikole Jokic on the floor. Last year that number
was one twenty two point four, so a substantial drop there.
Even the year they won the title it was only
one twenty four point two. Think about how crazy that is.
The Nuggets are scoring two points better per one hundred
possessions then they did the year they won the title
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with Nikole Jokich on the floor, even with less shooting
around him than ever before. The main weakness with Denver
is their defense. Their sixteenth in defensive rating, twenty eighth
in transition defense according to Clinton the last twelfth, and
half court defense, seventeenth in clutch defense. They also give
up the fifth most points per game in the paint
and the seventh most made threes per game. So that's
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obviously where the hole is right now. It's a similar
idea to what we were talking about with OKC. This
is an older veteran team that isn't going to bring
the same level of intensity night tonight. Nuggets will be
a better defense when they get to the postseason. The
question is how much better will they be good enough?
But if they can leverage their defense enough to unlock
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their borderline unguardable offense with Jokic, they absolutely can win
the whole thing, and that's why I have them all
the way up at number three. Again. I do worry
about them for that Minnesota matchup, though, that's one that
I think they're yet to overcome and have some serious
issues with Number four, the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're currently at
plus seven hundred to win the title. According to DraftKings.
This is a really, really good basketball team by every measure, right.
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They're producing similar levels of insane offense to what Denver's doing,
and they're a very respectable defense, albeit not in the
same stratosphere as Boston and OKC. I think part of
the reason why they're still undervalued by a lot of
people is that Darius Garland and Evan Mobley kind of
have a reputation right they appeared to be the weak
points in their previous playoff exits. I just think both
of those guys are substantially better players now, especially Garland,
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who has become one of my favorite players to watch
in the league and has a remarkable ability to generate
dribble penetrate. The main reasons I'm lower on the Calves
than most people are is one. They also rely a
good amount enforcing turnovers and getting out in transition, which,
like we talked about earlier, can be less effective when
you get to May. In June and then two. They
shot the ball preposterously well to start the year. I
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remember at one point a month or so back, I
looked at and I was like, oh my god, they're
shooting forty five percent on transition threes, Like that's insane.
Since January twelfth, the Calves are eleventh and three point percentage,
and as they're hot shooting has come back a bit,
their defense has slipped. They're now only eleventh and defense
in that span, twelfth in points off of opponent turnovers
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in that span, and they're just eleven and six in
their last seventeen games, which is really good. I just
don't view them as the type of world beating team
that they were early in the year when they were
just making every damn three point shot their take. I
personally think the Calves are destined for a Conference finals
loss to the Boston Celtics, and I think they're capable
of losing to in Indiana or Milwaukee or New York
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in round two, although I'd favor them over all three
of those teams. The case if you're the case for Cleveland.
Beating Boston is having home court advantage, jumping up two
to Oho and then stealing game three or Game four
in Boston and just putting them too far behind the
eight ball to be able to come back and win
that series. But we've just seen time and time again,
even as recently as their last matchup, Boston just gets
(17:24):
great shots. And if it wasn't for a Donovan Mitchell
heater in a game where Jalen Brown didn't even play,
they would have been zero and three against the Celtics
this year, it just doesn't seem like a team that
I think they can overcome Number five the Los Angeles
Lakers plus eighteen hundred on DraftKings right now to win
the title. Again, I'm kind of just throwing them in
here at the bottom of this tier because we really
don't know how good they're going to be. I've seen
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a lot of strong opinions about how bad the Lakers
are going to be, and it's just not based on
anything we've actually seen. Every other team we're going to
cover today, as we've seen a lot of what they're
going to be, right, everything with the Lakers is conjecture.
I do think their offense is going to be absolutely amazing.
That's not something worth overthinking. It's arguably the best combination
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of shot creation and play finishing talent that we've seen
since the twenty eighteen Warriors. The two primary shot creators,
and Lebron and Luca are two of the best playoff
shot creators we've ever seen who thrive in the physicality
of that environment. They also require very similar types of defenders,
which I think will test the defensive depth of teams.
At the forward spot. I would recommend not overthinking the offense.
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They're going to score a million points. Defense is where
it gets tricky. The Lakers had an eleven to two
stretch right before Luca joined the team where they were
literally the number one defense in the league, and they
put forward several impressive defensive efforts against teams like Boston,
the Knicks, the Clippers. They have more good defensive players
than people think. They turned D'Angelo Russell into Dorian Finney Smith.
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Jared Vanderbilt is one of the better defenders in the league.
Lebron James, as he's become engaged with this new group,
has been a good defender. Gabe is a good defender
at the guard spot. Even a guy like Austin does
his job, even though he can get into some situations
early in the year where he's asked to guard the
other team's best player and it's not a good fit
for him, but he as a subsidiary defender can be
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just fine. They've started doing a much better job of
executing JJ redicks one through five switching scheme. I think
they have a good defensive punch that's been clearly demonstrated
over the course of the last month. But you're now
adding in forty ish minutes of Luka Doncic in the playoffs,
and he's a guy that can be downright damaging to
a defense in certain matchups, specifically teams that can really
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space the floor. It will be JJ Reddick's responsibility to
try to find ways to deploy him properly in each
playoff matchup. So here's the big question. With Luca in
the picture. Will the Lakers be a terrible defense, an
average defense, or a great defense. I don't think they'll
be great. It's too much of a downgrade getting forty
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minutes of Luke on the instead of two way wings, right,
But I don't think they'll be terrible either. Like I
was arguing with Carson Breber from Nerd Sessh on their
show the other day, and like he thinks they're gonna
be a bottom ten defense. I disagree. I think they're
gonna be a middle ten defense. They have too many
good defensive players to just be a bad defensive team.
But if they can get to the point where they're
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an upper middle team, like in that eleven to fifteen
range on the defensive end of the floor, that's where
I think they have a good enough offense that they
can be a legitimate championship contender. My main concerns are
matchup related. I think they really match up well with OKC.
Lou Dort can only guarden one of Luca and Lebron,
and the Lakers are just so much bigger and stronger
on the perimeter. I think it's a real advantage for them.
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I also think Luca and Lebron are great counters to
Oklahoma City's aggressive, turnover forcing defense, like they can get
the ball across the court to guys that get their
defense into rotation. But I think they match up really
poorly with Denver and really poorly with Boston Denver because
they will have a world of trouble with Jokic and
Boston because they'll be able to actually space the floor
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enough to where Luca's lack of lateral quickness will be
a huge problem. But even within the context of those matchups,
or the OKC matchup or matchups with teams we have
further down on this list, I don't really have a
strong opinion on anything because we just need to see
more of this new look Lakers team playing basketball. Last
note on the Lakers two injuries. Talked about this the
other day after they lost to the Jazz. If they
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lose Jackson Hayes, if they lose a Dorian Finney Smith,
they could be in a real rough spot because all
of a sudden, they're gonna have to play Vando or
Christian KloCo or Alex Lynn at all times, and if
one of those guys is on the floor, it allows
teams to park a rim protector under the basket, make
them a jump shooting team, which can bog down their offense.
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So they kind of have a narrow matchup matchup kind
of pathway, and they kind of have a narrow injury pathway.
But I don't overthink it. They're gonna score a million points.
They've been a good defense for a while. I do
believe they're a legitimate championship contender. The question is where,
and we'll have a better idea of that once we
get deeper into the season. On to our third tier,
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I'm going to start moving a little bit faster through
teams now because we got a bunch to get to.
This to me is the high variance tier. These are
teams with real upside, real potential to win the title,
but that also have glaring weaknesses that could get them
beat early. These are teams that if they lost in
the first round, I wouldn't be very surprised, but if
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they made it to the finals I wouldn't be very
surprised either. They all have huge strengths and huge weaknesses.
Starting with number six, the New York Knicks at plus
one thousand to win the title on DraftKings. They're the
second best offense in the league this year, led by
Jalen Brunson in superior play, finishing to just about everyone
in the league. Og McHale and Cat are all just
absolutely lethal. If you give them an advantage, they'll have
(23:00):
a brilliant transition attack. They don't force a turn of
turnovers or get a ton of stops. But when they do,
they'll get up down up the floor like a blur,
getting great shots. They've been a mediocre defense all year,
though they're eighteenth and defensive rating, absolutely brutal against the
top teams. They're twenty fourth and defensive rating against teams
in the top ten in point differential, and they're just
five and eight in those games. And it's the same
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story every time, Teams just picking on Cat, picking on
Jalen Brunson, sometimes both at the same time, and they
just get their defense in rotation and they get great shots.
They give up the highest opponent three point percentage in
the league and their twentieth and points in the paint
allowed per game. And we haven't even got to the
real issue facing them, which is that they appear utterly
incapable of getting buckets or stops against the Boston Celtics.
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Their offense and their defense falls apart against them. I
just think it's inevitable that Boston beats New York if
they ever run into him in the postseason. Their only
hope is that Mitchell Robinson comes back and gives them
a viable defensive look that can work against the top
teams in the league. The reason why I say they
have real upside though, is pretty simple. There are teams
that I think give Boss issues. The next team on
this list is an example. All it takes is Boston
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getting upset and suddenly the Knicks look like a team
that has real potential to get out of the conference.
So they obviously have that chance there. I just don't
think that they can get through Boston if they run
into them. Number seven, the Milwaukee Bucks plus three thousand
to win the title on DraftKings much more of a
threat now that Kyle Kuzma is in the picture. I
think he gives the Bucks a much more physically imposing frontline.
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The interesting thing for me with the Bucks is I
think they're the team that gives the Celtics the most
issues in the conference. They've consistently given them issues over
the last few years because they can protect the rim well,
they can bait Boston into jump shooting, and Gianness is
just this indomitable force, right. But they're an interesting team
because they're just as likely to lose in the first
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round to somebody as they already even make it to
a Boston matchup, which again is kind of the theme
for this tier. Again, these are high variance teams. Wouldn't
be surprised if they lost in the first round, wouldn't
be surprised if they made it to the finals. The
scary thing for the Bucks is they've been frankly terrible
against the top teams in the league. This year. They
won the big game against Oklahoma City and the Ncason
Tournament final, and that was an impressive win. That's the
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one you cling to for upside. But they are just
two and twelve this year against teams in the top
ten in point differential, in bottom four in both offense
and defense in those matchups. Number eight the Minnesota Timberwolves
plus six thousand. The Timberwolves are an interesting team to
me because they have these obvious gaping flaws on the
offensive end of the floor, which would lead you to
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believe that they could lose to anyone. And again, like
we talked about, that's the theme of this tier. But
the reason why I have the Wolves so high has
a lot to do with their playoff run last year.
Hey what they did? Okay, see the other night. They
have the ability to ratchet up their physical intensity in
a way that a lot of teams really struggle to match.
They have so many, like top tier defensive players that
(25:47):
can really make opponents uncomfortable, and you get to the
playoffs and the officials let you get away with being
more handsy and grabby, and it just is a huge
advantage for Minnesota. I also think the Wolves match up
really well with Denver and OKC, which bodes well for
them as just being a threat to upset them. I
think they're actually more vulnerable against a team like the
Lakers because they wouldn't be able to guard Luca or
(26:08):
Lebron just because they can toss Jade McDaniels around most
of their perimeter guys are a little too thin. But yeah,
like Minnesota is an interesting team because like they could
easily get beat in the first round by their offense
falls apart. But like I wouldn't be stunned if they
beat OKAC, or if they beat Denver and went on
a run and just started mauling everybody with their defense,
and nas Reed is playing so damn well, and like
(26:30):
they're just they just they just look to me as
a team that's more of a playoff threat than a
regular season threat. Then, lastly, in this tier, the minute.
The Memphis Grizzlies plus three thousand the metrics PEG. Memphis
is an upper tier team. They're fifth in offense, seventh
and defense, second in rebounding. They're a very very good
regular season team, but their offense just has a tendency
to bog down against the good teams. They're just eighteenth
and spot up efficiency just a one to oh nine
(26:52):
point seven offensive rating in matchups against the top ten
point differentials in the league according to Cleaning the Glass,
and they're just six and ten in those matchups. Same
sort of story that consistently happens there. They've also struggled
in the clutch, where teams just pack the paint. It
becomes kind of a shot making contest with John Morant
and Jaren Jackson, and it turns into a lot of
difficult shots. They just haven't been able to have the
(27:15):
same level of success against the best teams in the
league that they did against the rest of their schedule.
That's pretty typical for young athletic teams right Their success
will be very matchup dependent. I could see them upsetting
teams like Denver or LA because of their lack of
rim protection. But they're the sort of team that if
they ran into like the MAVs with a healthy Anthony
Davis or Minnesota, teams that can really pack the paint
(27:38):
with length, I could see them losing in the first round. So,
once again, sticking to the theme of that tier, our fourth tier.
These are the puncher's chance teams. These are teams that
are most likely first round exits, but you can at
least see a viable pathway towards them making a deep
playoff run if a bunch of things go their way.
(27:59):
Number ten, the Goal In State Warriors plus three thousand
is a very good defensive team with a lot of
perimeter speed to dominant front court defenders and Jimmy Butler
and Draymond Green. But their offense is limited and it
can really grind to a halt sometimes, especially when Steph
is having a rough night. But it really is this
simple to me. It doesn't matter what the metrics are.
If you find yourself in a playoff series and it's
(28:20):
Draymond and it's Steph and it's Jimmy on the floor,
they're gonna be really tough to deal with. And if
those guys dig deep, like if Steph has a throwback
throwback playoff run like what he had in twenty twenty two,
or if Jimmy Butler has a throwback playoff run like
he had in twenty twenty three, they can absolutely beat
some teams and make some noise. Number eleven the Dallas
Mavericks plus thirty five hundred feels like their legitimate championship
(28:43):
upside was taken off with the departure of Luka Doncic.
I loved this roster. I would have probably had them
right up around that, like number five spot if they
had kept Luca. That's the same guy who got to
got to them, got them within three wins of the
title last year, right, But it is possible to see
a tiny pathway for them this year on the strength
of their defense and a surgical playoff run from a
(29:06):
guy like Kyrie Irving. We haven't even seen what ad
will look like next to Derek Lively. I he's a
substantial better defender than Daniel Gaffert. They could be frightening.
They might not even make the playoffs with all the injuries.
But if they somehow get in and they get a
first round series and eighty's healthy and Derek Lively's healthy
and Kyrie Irving's healthy and Klay Thompson is healthy. PJ.
(29:26):
Washington's healthy. We'd be foolish to say that they can't
beat a top team and go on a run. They're
going to be an absolute pain in the ass to
deal with. But I think it's far more likely that
they lose in the first round and then number twelve
the Indiana Pacers plus thirteen thousand to win the title
on DraftKings right now, real long shot. There so some
value if you believe in the Pacers. They have the
(29:48):
fifth best record in the league since December thirteenth, the
twenty and eight, seventh in offense, and eleventh in defense.
I just don't think any of their units have the
level of resilience necessary to be a legit contender. I've
seen Siakam and Halliburton struggle to create shots too often.
I've seen their defense fall apart too often, and they
are terrible rebounding team. So I just don't think they
(30:10):
have any like specific unit that's good enough to really
carry them. But they won the War of Attrition last year.
While every team broke down around them, they just kept
trucking along. They even held leads late in the conference finals.
Against Boston. They're a good ball pressure team. They're a
good transition offense. They can keep games close and wear
(30:30):
you down. It's impossible not to at least consider them
a threat after they made the conference finals last year.
Number thirteen. Our last team in this year, the Los
Angeles Clippers. They're plus thirty five hundred to win the title.
Tons of perimeter speed, guys who can defend both on
and off the ball. James Harden was an All Star
this year for his shot creation ability. If Kazubas has
(30:51):
turned himself into like a super dependable starting center in
this league, Norman Palace having a career year, and Kawhi's
back now, theoretical championship upside for the Clippers comes down
to Kawhi reaching his peak and he just hasn't looked
like that guy yet. Can't write them off because if
Kawhi does get back to that level, this roster is
absolutely good enough to hoist the trophy. But we all
(31:13):
know that that's just a very narrow possibility that for
something like that to happen. Moving on to our last tier,
these are teams that think they can compete for a championship,
but that I can't actually see a viable path for them.
These are teams, like if I even just saw them
playing in the conference finals, I would be absolutely stunned.
(31:34):
Number fourteen the Houston Rockets plus six thousand to win
the title. They just don't have the shot creation to
hang with the top teams. Even just losing Fred van
Vliet caused the bottom to fall out for him. They're
two to six since he got hurt after being like
utterly dominant with him before that. They're even struggling against
bad teams in that stretch. I think it's highly likely
that they lose in the first round. And even if
(31:55):
they catch like a really favorable matchup and like beat
a bad playing team in the first round, I still
think they're certain to lose in the second round. And lastly,
Number fifteen the Phoenix Suns plus twelve thousand to win
the title, real long shot odds. There just a horrific defense,
a horrific rebounding team that doesn't score the ball nearly
well enough to be a threat to do anything. Even
(32:17):
with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker on the floor together
this year, they have only a one to fifteen point
six offensive rating. That's more than ten points worse than
the Nuggets are with Nicole Jokic, for example, per one
hundred possessions. The roster is full of guys who probably
shouldn't be in the rotation on a serious basketball team.
I think they're destined for a plan or first round
loss and probably completely blowing up the roster when they
(32:39):
get to this summer. That's it for our contender rankings. Also,
just to give you guys an idea of what I
thought were the best values in terms of betting odds
Denver at plus fourteen hundred, I think they got a
real shot to win it this year. That's a great
price in the Minnesota Timberwolves again, plus six thousand for
a team that matches up really well with the top
teams in the league and just as this otherworldly physical
(33:01):
defense potential when you get to the postseason. I just
think that's an interesting price to be able to jump
on for value as well. All right, guys, it's all
Hafford today is always as sincerely appreciate you guys for
supporting me and supporting the show. We're gonna take a
little break for this last little break before we get
into the home stretch of the season. Wednesday night, the
Lakers play the Hornets. We'll be breaking that game down
on Thursday morning. I will see you guys that the volume.
(33:27):
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(01:38):
All right, Oldcode Hoops Tonight. Here at the volume heavy Tuesday,
everybody ovath. You guys are having a great week like
we always do during the all star break. We're gonna
take some time today to zoom out and take a
look at our contender rankings. We're gonna be ranking fifteen
teams today. You guys have the drip before we get started.
Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss
any more of our videos, follow me on Twitter and
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(02:00):
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our brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and
Facebook where we're releasing content throughout the year. And the
last but not least, keepdropping mailbag questions and the YouTube
comments so we can keep getting to them on Fridays
throughout the remainder of the season. So again, this is
our contender rankings are kind of a living document, right,
(02:21):
like stuff is moving around as we get more information.
I just wanted to kind of peg down a list
right here at this point in the season. I'm going
to break these teams into five tiers. Okay, And remember
this is not like our power rankings, our power rankings,
which we're gonna get back to doing starting next Monday.
Those are where we're just kind of shouting out the
teams that are playing well as of late, right and
(02:42):
more kind of focusing on the regular season. This is
strictly who do I think has the best chance to
get all the way to the lari Obrian Trophy, not
to win one series, not even to win two series. Strictly,
how likely I think these teams are to hoist the
Larry O'Brian Trophy. Our first tier is our top tier contenders.
(03:04):
These are teams that are so good and that have
so much in the way of expectations that anything involving
them losing before even getting to the finals would be
considered a complete failure. These are teams that are championship
or bust. Starting with number one, the Boston Celtics have
been number one all year for me. They are currently
(03:25):
at DraftKings at plus two thirty five to win the title.
They've actually been supplanted as the favorite on DraftKings. Now
the Thunder at plus two twenty five are the favorites.
I don't like that value for OKC. I think it's
far more likely that OKAC gets beat in the West
than Boston gets beat in the East, and I'd pick
Boston over OKC head to head. So like, in terms
(03:46):
of the betting odds, I don't think that's a good
price for OKAC, but they are currently the favorite to
win the title. Boston is the clear number one pick
to me because they have the hardest weakness to exploit.
They don't actually have a personnel weakness really at all.
They just have a personality weakness. Their top six in
offense defense and defensive rating or defensive rebounding, their top
(04:09):
ten paint defense, their top five three point line defense,
and Cleaning the Glass currently has them as the number
one transition defense in the NBA. Their weaknesses they occasionally
play really shitty basketball in the regular season, and that
to me has so much more to do with just
malaise than anything else. They have a one to twenty
three offensive rating against the top ten teams in point
(04:29):
differential according to Cleaning the Glass that ranks second in
the NBA, and they're also seventh in defense in those matchups.
In terms of win loss in those matchups, they have
a sixty nine win percentage against teams in the top
ten and point differential that ranks number one in the NBA.
Even over the Thunder, even over the Calves, I even
think they've been feeling a little bit of like a
(04:51):
reverse version of what the Calves got in the early
part of the year, where like several Celtics are shooting
well below their norms from three, and I think that's
something that will normally over the tail end of the season.
To me, they're better than the Thunder for a few
key reasons. Number one, I think Jason Tatum has gotten
a lot better and is now on the same tier
as a guy like Shay Gilders Alexander, So I don't
see the Thunder is having some substantial star advantage like
(05:14):
I looked at it as a problem for the Celtics
in years past. I also, too, think the Celtics are
far more experienced down the roster in the playoff setting
than OKAC is. Later on, I'm going to talk to
you guys about age and I'm gonna list some of
the ages of some of the players on both rosters,
and you guys will get a better feel for that.
But I do think experience is a big advantage for Boston.
(05:35):
And then three, I think Boston's offense translates much better
to the postseason than Oklahoma City's offense does, and I
think the gap between these two teams defensively in the
playoff context is substantially smaller. So I think again, I
think Boston, what we're seeing from them, what we know
they can do is more reliable in the playoff context,
(05:57):
and what we've seen from ok Oklahoma City, they're versatile too.
They can protect the rim, they have great switching looks.
They have big lineups, they have small lineups. They have
more players that can initiate offense than anyone in the league.
But at the same time, they have a ton of
dudes who can play off ball as play finishers, and
I think they have an easier path through the conference.
I think Boston is the clear cut championship favorite at
(06:20):
this point. I think a lot of the stuff we've
seen from them that's looked bad at times this year
is mostly just dealing with the eighty two game regular
season after you've already won the trophy, and again, all
these other teams that we're talking about are just dealing
with another level of urgency. The Celtics are still a
clear Number one for me. Number two the Oklahoma City
Thunder on DraftKings at plus two twenty five to win
(06:41):
the title. The main point of optimism for me with
the Thunder is their defense. They have the best defense
in the league and it isn't particularly close. The gap
between their defensive rating and the second best defensive rating
is the same as the gap between the second best
defensive rating and the tenth best defensive rating in the NBA.
They defend well in every single area like Austin does,
but they also force a ton of turnovers and get
(07:03):
out and transition off of those turnovers, which is something
that Boston doesn't. The only thing that don't do well
on defense is they're not a good defensive rebounding team.
But that is just a real asset that they have
in any playoff series, the best defense in the league,
that's going to provide a lot of problems for teams
to deal with. I also think Oklahoma City has a
much better primary weapon to deploy on stars in terms
(07:25):
of Lou Dort, who I think is a top tier
guy in that regard and just like a real asset
to just be able to put him on the other
team's best player and just know for a fact that
he's going to make that guy uncomfortable. He does it
against guards like Donovan Mitchell and BIG's of big old
wings like Luka Doncic, like he's just as versatile as
they get, just a huge weapon for that defense, and
statistically their offense is excellent. Their sixth and overall offensive rating,
(07:48):
their fifth and half court offensive rating, and cleaning the
Glass has them is the fourth best transition offense in
the league. Shay is still the substantial favorite to win
the MVP on DraftKings right now, so every metric would
tell us that Oklahoma City is the best team in
the league. Again, like I mentioned earlier, even DraftKings has
them as the championship favorite. So why do I have
(08:09):
Boston ahead of them? I think Oklahoma City's dominance in
this particular regular season is a bit inflated over their
playoff viability. I have consistently talked about over the years
about how young super athletic teams have a certain impact
in the regular season that older veteran teams struggle to match.
(08:29):
It gets even more exaggerated by the fact that in
the regular season you don't have as much time to prep.
When you run into OKC for a single game on
a random Tuesday in February, it can catch you off guard.
You can get your butt kicked, especially when their defense
is built on aggression enforcing mistakes. Every single one of
their top eight minutes per game guys in their rotation
(08:52):
is twenty six or younger. Three of them are twenty
three or younger. Here's the Celtics as a counter example
of their time eight rotation players. Only Jason Tatum is
twenty six or younger, and he's exactly twenty six. Three
of their top eight are in their thirties. Two of
them are over age thirty four. You think those guys
(09:14):
are gonna bring the same level of nightly intensity that
Oklahoma City is bringing this year, of course not. When
you get to the postseason, two things happen that limit
the effectiveness of this hillacious style that Oklahoma City is playing. One,
all of the Vets start matching the level of intensity
that the young guys bring. Now, the young guys are
(09:36):
still more athletic, but the gap shrinks as the Vets
engage for urgent basketball. And then two, you get to
prepare for several days for the matchup, and then even
within the matchup, you get two weeks to try to
solve the problem. Simple example. Last year, the thunder were
also a dominant, forcing turnovers, get out and transition type
(09:59):
of team. Four regular season matchups against the MAVs, they
force sixteen turnovers per game and scored twenty four point
three points off of those turnovers in the regular season.
In the four losses to Dallas in the postseason, they
only forced fourteen turnovers per game, and they only scored
eighteen points off of them, more than six points less.
(10:22):
That makes a substantial difference when you're splitting tiny margins
between two great teams. The problem they present the confusion,
the chaos, the transition attack. The effectiveness goes down in
the postseason because the vets are more up for it
and teams are more prepared for it. So the question
is how good are the thunder Really. They're awesome. They're
(10:45):
top tier contender. I think they're the second most likely
to win the title. But the reality of who they
are as a team is somewhere between what they were
last year against Dallas and what they are now, somewhere
in the middle there, and I think that that puts
them firmly below the Boston Celtics. I think the biggest
problem they'll face in the postseason is role players making shots.
(11:08):
Isaiah Joe is the only player to hit forty percent
of his threes against Dallas last year. Cason Wallace, Jaylen Williams,
Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren. That's Jaylen Williams, backup
center Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Chet Holmgren all shot
thirty three percent. Are worse in that series from three
when they've lost games. This year, it's been a similar issue.
(11:28):
The offense bogs down nobody but SGA can hit a shot.
To be clear, if they shoot the ball well across
the board, their defense is so good they'll win the title.
I'm just skeptical that they'll shoot the ball well enough.
They're seventeenth and three point percentage this year their bottom
ten and spot up efficiency according to Synergy. Teams are
going to pack the paint, They're going to dare other
guys to make shots and shay to try to score
(11:49):
a million points. That is the one thing that I
think makes them a lot more vulnerable than their record
would lead you to believe, if that makes sense. Moving
on to our second tier, calling this the appropriate fear tier.
These are teams that have pretty high expectations, Like if
any of these teams lost a first round series, it
would be considered a massive failure. But at the same time,
(12:12):
they're obviously aware that Boston and OKAC are gonna be
really tough challenges for them that it's an uphill climb there.
But on the flip side, I think both OKC and
Boston should have an appropriate fear of these teams and
the reality that they could potentially upset them. I also
think all three of these teams are particularly particularly vulnerable
(12:35):
to matchups that they probably need to avoid to get
where they want to go. Well, I'm actually gonna name
all three tiers here for an exit so I can
demonstrate the matchup weakness. The three teams I have in
this tier are the Nuggets, the Calves, and then the Lakers.
To me, if the Nuggets see Minnesota, they're probably gonna lose.
If the Calves see Boston, I think they're probably gonna lose.
(12:56):
And if the Lakers see the Nuggets, I think they're
probably going to lose. And by the way, we're gonna
get further into this when we get to the Lakers.
They're the one team in this entire list that is
like I don't feel very strongly about because they're just
kind of loosely thrown in here because we've just seen
so little of them with Luco, we just don't know
what they're capable of. We'll talk more about that when
we get to the Lakers. Number three. The Denver Nuggets
(13:19):
currently at plus fourteen hundred to win the title on DraftKings,
one of the best values that I think I see
on that list. I gave Denver the not here over
Cleveland for a simple reason. They present an unsolvable problem
for everyone in the league, including the Celtics and the Thunder,
which is not something that I think the Calves present.
Nicole jokicch is far and away the best player in
the world and a guy that none of these teams
(13:41):
can really do anything with. Again, we'll talk more about
the Calves in a minute, but I just don't think
they present that type of problem. The Nuggets have achieved
a similar level of unguardability to what they had in
twenty twenty three, in large part because Jokic got his
jump shot back in a huge way. He's been one
of the very best jump shooters in the league this year.
Here's a simple stat to demonstrate the difference between this
year's Nuggets offense and previous years. This year, the Nuggets
(14:04):
have a one to twenty six point one offensive rating
with Nikole Jokic on the floor. Last year that number
was one twenty two point four, so a substantial drop there.
Even the year they won the title it was only
one twenty four point two. Think about how crazy that is.
The Nuggets are scoring two points better per one hundred
possessions then they did the year they won the title
(14:25):
with Nikole Jokich on the floor, even with less shooting
around him than ever before. The main weakness with Denver
is their defense. Their sixteenth in defensive rating, twenty eighth
in transition defense according to Clinton the last twelfth, and
half court defense, seventeenth in clutch defense. They also give
up the fifth most points per game in the paint
and the seventh most made threes per game. So that's
(14:49):
obviously where the hole is right now. It's a similar
idea to what we were talking about with OKC. This
is an older veteran team that isn't going to bring
the same level of intensity night tonight. Nuggets will be
a better defense when they get to the postseason. The
question is how much better will they be good enough?
But if they can leverage their defense enough to unlock
(15:10):
their borderline unguardable offense with Jokic, they absolutely can win
the whole thing, and that's why I have them all
the way up at number three. Again. I do worry
about them for that Minnesota matchup, though, that's one that
I think they're yet to overcome and have some serious
issues with Number four, the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're currently at
plus seven hundred to win the title. According to DraftKings.
This is a really, really good basketball team by every measure, right.
(15:32):
They're producing similar levels of insane offense to what Denver's doing,
and they're a very respectable defense, albeit not in the
same stratosphere as Boston and OKC. I think part of
the reason why they're still undervalued by a lot of
people is that Darius Garland and Evan Mobley kind of
have a reputation right they appeared to be the weak
points in their previous playoff exits. I just think both
of those guys are substantially better players now, especially Garland,
(15:55):
who has become one of my favorite players to watch
in the league and has a remarkable ability to generate
dribble penetrate. The main reasons I'm lower on the Calves
than most people are is one. They also rely a
good amount enforcing turnovers and getting out in transition, which,
like we talked about earlier, can be less effective when
you get to May. In June and then two. They
shot the ball preposterously well to start the year. I
(16:16):
remember at one point a month or so back, I
looked at and I was like, oh my god, they're
shooting forty five percent on transition threes, Like that's insane.
Since January twelfth, the Calves are eleventh and three point percentage,
and as they're hot shooting has come back a bit,
their defense has slipped. They're now only eleventh and defense
in that span, twelfth in points off of opponent turnovers
(16:39):
in that span, and they're just eleven and six in
their last seventeen games, which is really good. I just
don't view them as the type of world beating team
that they were early in the year when they were
just making every damn three point shot their take. I
personally think the Calves are destined for a Conference finals
loss to the Boston Celtics, and I think they're capable
of losing to in Indiana or Milwaukee or New York
(17:01):
in round two, although I'd favor them over all three
of those teams. The case if you're the case for Cleveland.
Beating Boston is having home court advantage, jumping up two
to Oho and then stealing game three or Game four
in Boston and just putting them too far behind the
eight ball to be able to come back and win
that series. But we've just seen time and time again,
even as recently as their last matchup, Boston just gets
(17:24):
great shots. And if it wasn't for a Donovan Mitchell
heater in a game where Jalen Brown didn't even play,
they would have been zero and three against the Celtics
this year, it just doesn't seem like a team that
I think they can overcome Number five the Los Angeles
Lakers plus eighteen hundred on DraftKings right now to win
the title. Again, I'm kind of just throwing them in
here at the bottom of this tier because we really
don't know how good they're going to be. I've seen
(17:45):
a lot of strong opinions about how bad the Lakers
are going to be, and it's just not based on
anything we've actually seen. Every other team we're going to
cover today, as we've seen a lot of what they're
going to be, right, everything with the Lakers is conjecture.
I do think their offense is going to be absolutely amazing.
That's not something worth overthinking. It's arguably the best combination
(18:08):
of shot creation and play finishing talent that we've seen
since the twenty eighteen Warriors. The two primary shot creators,
and Lebron and Luca are two of the best playoff
shot creators we've ever seen who thrive in the physicality
of that environment. They also require very similar types of defenders,
which I think will test the defensive depth of teams.
At the forward spot. I would recommend not overthinking the offense.
(18:31):
They're going to score a million points. Defense is where
it gets tricky. The Lakers had an eleven to two
stretch right before Luca joined the team where they were
literally the number one defense in the league, and they
put forward several impressive defensive efforts against teams like Boston,
the Knicks, the Clippers. They have more good defensive players
than people think. They turned D'Angelo Russell into Dorian Finney Smith.
(18:54):
Jared Vanderbilt is one of the better defenders in the league.
Lebron James, as he's become engaged with this new group,
has been a good defender. Gabe is a good defender
at the guard spot. Even a guy like Austin does
his job, even though he can get into some situations
early in the year where he's asked to guard the
other team's best player and it's not a good fit
for him, but he as a subsidiary defender can be
(19:15):
just fine. They've started doing a much better job of
executing JJ redicks one through five switching scheme. I think
they have a good defensive punch that's been clearly demonstrated
over the course of the last month. But you're now
adding in forty ish minutes of Luka Doncic in the playoffs,
and he's a guy that can be downright damaging to
a defense in certain matchups, specifically teams that can really
(19:38):
space the floor. It will be JJ Reddick's responsibility to
try to find ways to deploy him properly in each
playoff matchup. So here's the big question. With Luca in
the picture. Will the Lakers be a terrible defense, an
average defense, or a great defense. I don't think they'll
be great. It's too much of a downgrade getting forty
(19:59):
minutes of Luke on the instead of two way wings, right,
But I don't think they'll be terrible either. Like I
was arguing with Carson Breber from Nerd Sessh on their
show the other day, and like he thinks they're gonna
be a bottom ten defense. I disagree. I think they're
gonna be a middle ten defense. They have too many
good defensive players to just be a bad defensive team.
But if they can get to the point where they're
(20:19):
an upper middle team, like in that eleven to fifteen
range on the defensive end of the floor, that's where
I think they have a good enough offense that they
can be a legitimate championship contender. My main concerns are
matchup related. I think they really match up well with OKC.
Lou Dort can only guarden one of Luca and Lebron,
and the Lakers are just so much bigger and stronger
on the perimeter. I think it's a real advantage for them.
(20:42):
I also think Luca and Lebron are great counters to
Oklahoma City's aggressive, turnover forcing defense, like they can get
the ball across the court to guys that get their
defense into rotation. But I think they match up really
poorly with Denver and really poorly with Boston Denver because
they will have a world of trouble with Jokic and
Boston because they'll be able to actually space the floor
(21:04):
enough to where Luca's lack of lateral quickness will be
a huge problem. But even within the context of those matchups,
or the OKC matchup or matchups with teams we have
further down on this list, I don't really have a
strong opinion on anything because we just need to see
more of this new look Lakers team playing basketball. Last
note on the Lakers two injuries. Talked about this the
other day after they lost to the Jazz. If they
(21:24):
lose Jackson Hayes, if they lose a Dorian Finney Smith,
they could be in a real rough spot because all
of a sudden, they're gonna have to play Vando or
Christian KloCo or Alex Lynn at all times, and if
one of those guys is on the floor, it allows
teams to park a rim protector under the basket, make
them a jump shooting team, which can bog down their offense.
(21:45):
So they kind of have a narrow matchup matchup kind
of pathway, and they kind of have a narrow injury pathway.
But I don't overthink it. They're gonna score a million points.
They've been a good defense for a while. I do
believe they're a legitimate championship contender. The question is where,
and we'll have a better idea of that once we
get deeper into the season. On to our third tier,
(22:17):
I'm going to start moving a little bit faster through
teams now because we got a bunch to get to.
This to me is the high variance tier. These are
teams with real upside, real potential to win the title,
but that also have glaring weaknesses that could get them
beat early. These are teams that if they lost in
the first round, I wouldn't be very surprised, but if
(22:38):
they made it to the finals I wouldn't be very
surprised either. They all have huge strengths and huge weaknesses.
Starting with number six, the New York Knicks at plus
one thousand to win the title on DraftKings. They're the
second best offense in the league this year, led by
Jalen Brunson in superior play, finishing to just about everyone
in the league. Og McHale and Cat are all just
absolutely lethal. If you give them an advantage, they'll have
(23:00):
a brilliant transition attack. They don't force a turn of
turnovers or get a ton of stops. But when they do,
they'll get up down up the floor like a blur,
getting great shots. They've been a mediocre defense all year,
though they're eighteenth and defensive rating, absolutely brutal against the
top teams. They're twenty fourth and defensive rating against teams
in the top ten in point differential, and they're just
five and eight in those games. And it's the same
(23:20):
story every time, Teams just picking on Cat, picking on
Jalen Brunson, sometimes both at the same time, and they
just get their defense in rotation and they get great shots.
They give up the highest opponent three point percentage in
the league and their twentieth and points in the paint
allowed per game. And we haven't even got to the
real issue facing them, which is that they appear utterly
incapable of getting buckets or stops against the Boston Celtics.
(23:42):
Their offense and their defense falls apart against them. I
just think it's inevitable that Boston beats New York if
they ever run into him in the postseason. Their only
hope is that Mitchell Robinson comes back and gives them
a viable defensive look that can work against the top
teams in the league. The reason why I say they
have real upside though, is pretty simple. There are teams
that I think give Boss issues. The next team on
this list is an example. All it takes is Boston
(24:03):
getting upset and suddenly the Knicks look like a team
that has real potential to get out of the conference.
So they obviously have that chance there. I just don't
think that they can get through Boston if they run
into them. Number seven, the Milwaukee Bucks plus three thousand
to win the title on DraftKings much more of a
threat now that Kyle Kuzma is in the picture. I
think he gives the Bucks a much more physically imposing frontline.
(24:23):
The interesting thing for me with the Bucks is I
think they're the team that gives the Celtics the most
issues in the conference. They've consistently given them issues over
the last few years because they can protect the rim well,
they can bait Boston into jump shooting, and Gianness is
just this indomitable force, right. But they're an interesting team
because they're just as likely to lose in the first
(24:44):
round to somebody as they already even make it to
a Boston matchup, which again is kind of the theme
for this tier. Again, these are high variance teams. Wouldn't
be surprised if they lost in the first round, wouldn't
be surprised if they made it to the finals. The
scary thing for the Bucks is they've been frankly terrible
against the top teams in the league. This year. They
won the big game against Oklahoma City and the Ncason
Tournament final, and that was an impressive win. That's the
(25:05):
one you cling to for upside. But they are just
two and twelve this year against teams in the top
ten in point differential, in bottom four in both offense
and defense in those matchups. Number eight the Minnesota Timberwolves
plus six thousand. The Timberwolves are an interesting team to
me because they have these obvious gaping flaws on the
offensive end of the floor, which would lead you to
(25:26):
believe that they could lose to anyone. And again, like
we talked about, that's the theme of this tier. But
the reason why I have the Wolves so high has
a lot to do with their playoff run last year.
Hey what they did? Okay, see the other night. They
have the ability to ratchet up their physical intensity in
a way that a lot of teams really struggle to match.
They have so many, like top tier defensive players that
(25:47):
can really make opponents uncomfortable, and you get to the
playoffs and the officials let you get away with being
more handsy and grabby, and it just is a huge
advantage for Minnesota. I also think the Wolves match up
really well with Denver and OKC, which bodes well for
them as just being a threat to upset them. I
think they're actually more vulnerable against a team like the
Lakers because they wouldn't be able to guard Luca or
(26:08):
Lebron just because they can toss Jade McDaniels around most
of their perimeter guys are a little too thin. But yeah,
like Minnesota is an interesting team because like they could
easily get beat in the first round by their offense
falls apart. But like I wouldn't be stunned if they
beat OKAC, or if they beat Denver and went on
a run and just started mauling everybody with their defense,
and nas Reed is playing so damn well, and like
(26:30):
they're just they just they just look to me as
a team that's more of a playoff threat than a
regular season threat. Then, lastly, in this tier, the minute.
The Memphis Grizzlies plus three thousand the metrics PEG. Memphis
is an upper tier team. They're fifth in offense, seventh
and defense, second in rebounding. They're a very very good
regular season team, but their offense just has a tendency
to bog down against the good teams. They're just eighteenth
and spot up efficiency just a one to oh nine
(26:52):
point seven offensive rating in matchups against the top ten
point differentials in the league according to Cleaning the Glass,
and they're just six and ten in those matchups. Same
sort of story that consistently happens there. They've also struggled
in the clutch, where teams just pack the paint. It
becomes kind of a shot making contest with John Morant
and Jaren Jackson, and it turns into a lot of
difficult shots. They just haven't been able to have the
(27:15):
same level of success against the best teams in the
league that they did against the rest of their schedule.
That's pretty typical for young athletic teams right Their success
will be very matchup dependent. I could see them upsetting
teams like Denver or LA because of their lack of
rim protection. But they're the sort of team that if
they ran into like the MAVs with a healthy Anthony
Davis or Minnesota, teams that can really pack the paint
(27:38):
with length, I could see them losing in the first round. So,
once again, sticking to the theme of that tier, our fourth tier.
These are the puncher's chance teams. These are teams that
are most likely first round exits, but you can at
least see a viable pathway towards them making a deep
playoff run if a bunch of things go their way.
(27:59):
Number ten, the Goal In State Warriors plus three thousand
is a very good defensive team with a lot of
perimeter speed to dominant front court defenders and Jimmy Butler
and Draymond Green. But their offense is limited and it
can really grind to a halt sometimes, especially when Steph
is having a rough night. But it really is this
simple to me. It doesn't matter what the metrics are.
If you find yourself in a playoff series and it's
(28:20):
Draymond and it's Steph and it's Jimmy on the floor,
they're gonna be really tough to deal with. And if
those guys dig deep, like if Steph has a throwback
throwback playoff run like what he had in twenty twenty two,
or if Jimmy Butler has a throwback playoff run like
he had in twenty twenty three, they can absolutely beat
some teams and make some noise. Number eleven the Dallas
Mavericks plus thirty five hundred feels like their legitimate championship
(28:43):
upside was taken off with the departure of Luka Doncic.
I loved this roster. I would have probably had them
right up around that, like number five spot if they
had kept Luca. That's the same guy who got to
got to them, got them within three wins of the
title last year, right, But it is possible to see
a tiny pathway for them this year on the strength
of their defense and a surgical playoff run from a
(29:06):
guy like Kyrie Irving. We haven't even seen what ad
will look like next to Derek Lively. I he's a
substantial better defender than Daniel Gaffert. They could be frightening.
They might not even make the playoffs with all the injuries.
But if they somehow get in and they get a
first round series and eighty's healthy and Derek Lively's healthy
and Kyrie Irving's healthy and Klay Thompson is healthy. PJ.
(29:26):
Washington's healthy. We'd be foolish to say that they can't
beat a top team and go on a run. They're
going to be an absolute pain in the ass to
deal with. But I think it's far more likely that
they lose in the first round and then number twelve
the Indiana Pacers plus thirteen thousand to win the title
on DraftKings right now, real long shot. There so some
value if you believe in the Pacers. They have the
(29:48):
fifth best record in the league since December thirteenth, the
twenty and eight, seventh in offense, and eleventh in defense.
I just don't think any of their units have the
level of resilience necessary to be a legit contender. I've
seen Siakam and Halliburton struggle to create shots too often.
I've seen their defense fall apart too often, and they
are terrible rebounding team. So I just don't think they
(30:10):
have any like specific unit that's good enough to really
carry them. But they won the War of Attrition last year.
While every team broke down around them, they just kept
trucking along. They even held leads late in the conference finals.
Against Boston. They're a good ball pressure team. They're a
good transition offense. They can keep games close and wear
(30:30):
you down. It's impossible not to at least consider them
a threat after they made the conference finals last year.
Number thirteen. Our last team in this year, the Los
Angeles Clippers. They're plus thirty five hundred to win the title.
Tons of perimeter speed, guys who can defend both on
and off the ball. James Harden was an All Star
this year for his shot creation ability. If Kazubas has
(30:51):
turned himself into like a super dependable starting center in
this league, Norman Palace having a career year, and Kawhi's
back now, theoretical championship upside for the Clippers comes down
to Kawhi reaching his peak and he just hasn't looked
like that guy yet. Can't write them off because if
Kawhi does get back to that level, this roster is
absolutely good enough to hoist the trophy. But we all
(31:13):
know that that's just a very narrow possibility that for
something like that to happen. Moving on to our last tier,
these are teams that think they can compete for a championship,
but that I can't actually see a viable path for them.
These are teams, like if I even just saw them
playing in the conference finals, I would be absolutely stunned.
(31:34):
Number fourteen the Houston Rockets plus six thousand to win
the title. They just don't have the shot creation to
hang with the top teams. Even just losing Fred van
Vliet caused the bottom to fall out for him. They're
two to six since he got hurt after being like
utterly dominant with him before that. They're even struggling against
bad teams in that stretch. I think it's highly likely
that they lose in the first round. And even if
(31:55):
they catch like a really favorable matchup and like beat
a bad playing team in the first round, I still
think they're certain to lose in the second round. And lastly,
Number fifteen the Phoenix Suns plus twelve thousand to win
the title, real long shot odds. There just a horrific defense,
a horrific rebounding team that doesn't score the ball nearly
well enough to be a threat to do anything. Even
(32:17):
with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker on the floor together
this year, they have only a one to fifteen point
six offensive rating. That's more than ten points worse than
the Nuggets are with Nicole Jokic, for example, per one
hundred possessions. The roster is full of guys who probably
shouldn't be in the rotation on a serious basketball team.
I think they're destined for a plan or first round
loss and probably completely blowing up the roster when they
(32:39):
get to this summer. That's it for our contender rankings. Also,
just to give you guys an idea of what I
thought were the best values in terms of betting odds
Denver at plus fourteen hundred, I think they got a
real shot to win it this year. That's a great
price in the Minnesota Timberwolves again, plus six thousand for
a team that matches up really well with the top
teams in the league and just as this otherworldly physical
(33:01):
defense potential when you get to the postseason. I just
think that's an interesting price to be able to jump
on for value as well. All right, guys, it's all
Hafford today is always as sincerely appreciate you guys for
supporting me and supporting the show. We're gonna take a
little break for this last little break before we get
into the home stretch of the season. Wednesday night, the
Lakers play the Hornets. We'll be breaking that game down
on Thursday morning. I will see you guys that the volume.
(33:27):
What's Up guys, As always, I appreciate you for listening
to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would actually be really
helpful for us if you guys would take a second
and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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