The Favorites - Academy Awards Betting Preview with Michael Lasker

The 97th Academy Awards are this Sunday night, as Hollywood's elite wait nervously for the most iconic trophy in American entertainment: the Oscar. Today is also a huge day, because Action Network host Chad Millman gets to welcome on his favorite annual guest!

Michael Lasker is a true Hollywood insider, a top talent manager at Mosaic in Los Angeles, and one of Hollywood Reporter's 40 Most Powerful People in Comedy. He returns to the show for his 4th annual Oscars preview, and provides plenty of insights into races across the eight major categories.

And for those looking to join us for our FREE podcast live event in Chicago next month, be sure to RSVP now! Events starts at 4pm on March 29th, at Joe's on Weed in Chicago for the Elite 8 Saturday games of March Madness. #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Noman of the Action Network. I am
live from my Tommy John home studio. I'm joined as
always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff,
professional better Simon Hunter, and os im In.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
Hello, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?

Speaker 1 (00:35):
You know I'm so excited for today. You know, it's
one of my favorite days. It's one of my favorite
days of the year. It's one of my favorite episodes
that we do every year. I get to talk to
my favorite and you will guess he's truly become my bff.
We talk even beyond the show.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
It's true.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
It's a true Hollywood insider, a top talent manager at
Mosaic in Los Angeles, a man named one of the
forty most powerful people in comedy by The Hollywood Reporter.
Most importantly, he's one of America's true Academy Awards savants
who can effortlessly rattle off every major category nominee across

(01:20):
every year. He's our favorite kind of Sickoh, He's Michael Lasker.
Welcome back to the show. Laskar.

Speaker 3 (01:28):
Thank you. It's great to be back with you guys.
Thanks Chad, Thanks Simon. I want to point out that
you're you're reporting on a Hollywood Reporter issue that is
like maybe seven or eight years old. Points.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
I liked that it's in there. Every single year we
do it. And I remember when you first came on
and we mentioned it. You very humbly try to distract
from the mention because at that point it was like,
I don't know, a year or two old. So at
this point it is like five six years old. Matt

(02:02):
Mitchell continues to put it in there. He loves to
put it in there. He thinks it brings a lot
of credibility and grount no.

Speaker 3 (02:07):
We should well Matt Mitchell, He's our guru. He knows
going on, guys, how are you? I mean, by the way,
I'm gonna just say not to not to immediately take
over the pod, but I'm going to say what I
think is very exciting and must be super exciting for
you guys. This is a great year for the Oscars.
This is a year with a lot of suspense. I mean,
last year, of course, Oppenheimer was like mowing everybody down.

(02:28):
The previous year, everything everywhere was like on its way
towards the end. They're like, I don't know if I'm
gonna be right today. There's a lot of good races still,
let's break him down. But I mean, I would think,
I mean, you guys are the experts, like there's a
way to actually make some money this year.

Speaker 1 (02:42):
I think there is going to be. It's really interesting
that we're starting to see a lot of sort of
movement in the markets just because some of the awards
have been so inconsistent. There have been some controversies. We're
going to get into all of it as a reminder.
The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six y
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(03:02):
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(03:25):
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before we dive in another reminder, you can officially RSVP
for our free Favorites live show event in Chicago. Let's

(03:49):
fill this room, folks. This will be for the Elite
eight March Madness Games Saturday, March twenty ninth. Joe's Bar
on Weed Street also better known as joe'son Weed nearest
Lincoln Park in Chicago. Free event, free drinks, free live show.
Me Simon plus some other folks going to be joined

(04:10):
and please RSVP to reserve your spot. Click the link
in this episode's description or just Google Favorites Live Event Chicago. Simon.
I'm already losing sleep over like people coming to this thing.
I just wanted to.

Speaker 3 (04:27):
Know, like, how big is this place? What do we
have to fill here?

Speaker 1 (04:31):
It's it's a decent size. We got it, we got it.
We gotta get some people in there. That's all I'm saying.
And I feel extra pressure being from Chicago. Like I've
already texted, like you know, you got different text chains
and stuff, and I got a text chain with all
my friends that I went to college with to Indiana
with who all live in Chicago. I'm like, please come,
let's make it a reunion. Tell all your kids and

(04:52):
tell all your friends, Like, let's just fill this room.

Speaker 2 (04:55):
Heyay, you're gota fudge numbers. I try to bring in
twenty five relatives. That's what my move was in the
Philadelphia one.

Speaker 1 (04:59):
So oh my god, I like every one of my
dad's eighty year old friends. They're going to be turning out,
that's all. We'll get them a special room. All right,
We're ready to dig in here where we're gonna get
We're going to focus on the eight major categories. Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress,
Supporting Actor, actress, Screenplay, Original screenplay, Adapted screenplay. This will

(05:20):
be fun because Lasker, you and I we spoke in
December for a little while late in December, and we
went through the odds, like on prediction markets, and we
talked about sort of what the markets were saying and
you gave me your best instincts of what you were hearing, seeing, wondering, thinking,
based on your expertise through a bunch of categories. So

(05:43):
I tried to remember having not taken notes on that call,
because you're my bff, and I don't take notes on
those calls.

Speaker 3 (05:49):
I know we just were just like staring at each
other's eyes, even though we're not even We weren't even facetiming.

Speaker 1 (05:54):
No, no, I was just thinking about your face. So
the ones I remember specifically were Best Director and Best
Supporting Actress. I added context to those at least I'm
gonna try. But let's start with Best Actress. Okay, this
one has had so much controversy because Carla Sophia Guess Gohone,

(06:14):
the nominee from Amelia Perez, has basically tweeted herself out
of the running. Do you want to explain? Do you
want me to explain? Do you want to give your
take on so well.

Speaker 3 (06:23):
The take that I would give, and you know not to,
you know, not to wade into politics. I think it's
actually weirdly irrelevant because I really liked Emilia Prez and
I thought she was excellent in the movie. I don't.
I never thought she was going to win. So yes,
it was a very weird classic Hollywood meltdown that the
entire town watched in real time. And I talked to

(06:45):
people associated with Netflix who were basically like, we've never
seen anything like it, Like, I mean, she really really
just went rogue and and so you know, but I
don't think she was ever gonna win. And so really
this race, as you know, is between to Me Moore
and Mikey Madison and it's a really really compelling race.
Now let's just go back, you know, two days, which

(07:07):
will we do that?

Speaker 1 (07:08):
Let me just give the odds right now, we got
to me more.

Speaker 3 (07:10):
You know, it's your show.

Speaker 1 (07:12):
Yeah, thank you, thank you de Me Moore for the substance.
She's at minus three hundred, Mikey Madison for Honora plus
one sixty five. Uh, and then the rest of the
field is pretty far off. So it's really is between
those two. So yes, give us your take.

Speaker 3 (07:29):
Well, so what's interesting is okay, So to me, one
Sag on Sunday, and the thing about Sag just as
one predictor and one thing I want to you know,
maintain and always sort of give the blanket statement is
that it's great that there's all these precursor awards, and
in a certain way, they do kind of start to
calcify a perception as to who's going to win. But

(07:51):
for everybody listening at home, there's no body in any
of these precursor awards, the PGA, the DJA, SAG, WGA
Golden Globes that truly truly correlates to the Academy as
of For instance, I think there's like ten thousand members
in the Academy. The Acting branch of the Academy is
the largest branch. I should have looked it up before
we got here, But let's say it's like three to

(08:11):
five thousand members are in the actors branch. There's one
hundred and fifty thousand people in SAG who were eligible
to vote, you know, in the last week for the
SAG Awards, which we're announced on Sunday. So ultimately, like
just because of something they did does not mean it's
going to completely correlate, because you've got people that are
doing day player parts on TV shows voting for who
they think should win, you know, best Actress. So with

(08:34):
that said, you can still look at this stuff to
figure out if there's patterns. So what I decided to
do was for a lot of this was go back
to like twenty ten basically, like you know, start with
that decade and go forward. So from twenty ten to now,
ten of the fourteen winners for SAG Best Actress then
correlated to the Oscar winner. So that's you guys are numbers,

(08:56):
guys like ten to fourteen. That's pretty decent. With that said,
and this is my kind of hunch on this race,
which will lead into some of the other races I'm
thinking about last year. Last year Lily Gladstone beat Emma Stone,
and I thought Lily Gladstone was excellent in Killers of
the Flower Moon. And there were two narratives she had.
One was there was a question the entire year, which

(09:17):
was was she the lead actress or was she the
supporting actress because she's really kind of the supporting part
of that movie. But the other issue or not issue
that the narrative was she's a Native American woman playing
a Native American character in a movie that is about
the plight of Native American people. And you know, there's
a sense of like, well, we want to honor this
because this representation has not been around enough, and I

(09:39):
picked Loly Gladstone to win at the Oscars, and the
minute Michelle Yo announced Emma Stone winning, I was like,
I'm an idiot. Of course Emmastone was winning the whole time,
because if you had watched Poor Things, it was impossible
to not come away thinking Emma Stone was every single
inch of that movie. She was absolutely brilliant. Not to

(09:59):
mention she's kind of one of the most famous people
working in Hollywood. And when you go back to like
who's winning two Oscars for Best Actor or Actress before
they're forty, that is a very very rarefied list. My
point is, now you look at de Me versus Mikey,
I love to me Moore. I mean, I'm forty five
years old. Demi Moore was a huge part of my childhood.

(10:20):
A few good men, you know, like she was married
to Bruce willis my all time favorite actor. Like I
love Deme Moore. I'm rooting for Demi more just as
a human being, and she's run an amazing press to her.
If you watch The Substance, it is truly a fifty
to fifty movie. I mean, by design, she takes the
Substance and then Margaret Qally, you know, appears not to
give too much of it away, and then the rest

(10:41):
of the movie they're going back and forth sharing the
body and she's amazing in it, but it's like a
fifty to fifty split if you watch A Nora, not
unlike Poor Things. Every inch of that movie is Mikey Madison.
And not to get into the other categories, but obviously
A Noor is surging, and we'll come back to that
later and we get to like Best Picture and Director,
but I do feel like, frankly, if there's this much

(11:05):
love for Anora, well, how can you have that much
love for it and not have the love for Mikey Madison.
The thing going against her has been that she's twenty
five years old. The youngest actress to ever win the
Best Actress oscar is Marley Mattlin. She won in nineteen
eighty six for Children of a Lesser God. She was
twenty one. Now, there are young actresses that win relatively frequently.
Jennifer Lawrence won when she was really young for Silver

(11:25):
Lenning's Playbook. It's the best actor category where typically young
men do not win. Ironically, we'll get to this later,
but when Adrian Brody won in two thousand and two
for The Pianist. He was the youngest actress. Since he
might have beaten the record, I have to look it up,
but since Richard Dreyfus won in nineteen seventy seven for
The Goodbye Girl. So typically best actor goes to like

(11:46):
older men, and we'll get to that between Tim Shallmay
and Adrian. Now now Adrian's the older man. So but
this is an amazing race. I mean, Mikey Madison, you
know one Indie Spirit Award, she won the BAFTA, which
is not nothing. Demi won the Golden Globe to me
one sag. Demi has a huge following, obviously in Hollywood

(12:07):
for years. I think there's probably a sense that like,
will do me be nominated again? Who knows? Whereas Mikey's
at the beginning of her career and she can be
nominated five more times for all we know. This one
is such a toss up. But I am going to
go with Mikey Madison.

Speaker 1 (12:22):
I'm shocked because I feel like you said two things
that actually contradict your theory about Emma Stone Demi Moore.
Demi Mour is the significantly more famous actor in this case. Yeah,
there is a history of wanting to give the award

(12:44):
as a career award for someone at this stage when
they haven't won before, haven't been appreciated, haven't been acknowledged.
And I love that your reference point for Demi Moore
is being married to Bruce Willis and if you have
read and like in the movie's Disclosure and a few
Good Men, and I'm thinking, like you know, seeing almost Fire, Yeah,

(13:07):
because because I'm because that's my reference point. But number one,
she's more famous. Number two, I do think in the
substance she had, I do feel like she carried that
movie and margaret quality was amazing in the movie, but
like her acting was much more muted to me, almost

(13:31):
literally like she just had didn't have a lot of lines,
like in the first thirty five to forty minutes of
the movie, whereas to me more was she felt like
a different person to me compared to her public persona Simon,
you're nodding back and forth. I think you're with me.

Speaker 2 (13:47):
I think it is all part of the game. Like
there's a couple of things we'll talk about. He's coming up.
But it's like even if like you just said, it's career, right,
It's not just you know that, it's that part of
the game, right, it's not just for the one movie.
They've done it for their body of work. And like
you said, she knows a lot of these people in
this business better than you know, unfortunately for Mickey. But

(14:09):
I'm gonna be betting here on the dog. So I
already know where I'm going. I mean, I get it,
DEMI should be minus three hundred. But you know me, Chaed,
I like the dog. I like the upside of the
value here where what he's talking about, Like we've seen
last minute flips here in the oscars, right, they've gotten
the favorites wrong because it is kind of the human element, right,
they don't know how these people are going to vote.

(14:30):
All they can do is just project. So you know me, Jed,
I'm a sucker for the dog.

Speaker 3 (14:34):
Well, the other thing too, keep in mind, like you
have to go back to, like, okay, what are the
narratives we have, like get you get a narrative on
the day of the nominations, and you get a narrative
now basically to this moment when we've had every precursor
award except obviously the Oscars. The narrative on the day
of the nominations were a couple of things. Over reformers
were a complete unknown substance actually, which helps to me more.

(14:57):
And I'm still here. The the Brazilian film that got
into the Best Picture race and Fernanda Taurus got you know,
Best Actress nomination. Those were the over performers, So that
would bode well for to me more. But then when
you look at the next two months, the massive overperformer
has been an Aura, which you know, Best Picture of
the PGA's Best Director of the DJA. We'll get to DGA.

(15:18):
That's a highly correlative, you know, one to one over
like ninety years, you know, winning Critics Choice Awards, did
not win baf TO or did not win BAFTA or SAG.
We'll come back to that. I have some stats, and
Golden Globes went to Brutalist. But and I'm very much
on the record here, like I don't think the Golden
Globes matter. I mean, the Golden Globes are not even

(15:40):
voted on people who even work in the business. Technically,
you know, you could at least make a correlation to say,
well the producers are you know, there's a certain body
of producers in the Oscar, you know, in the Academy
blah blah blah blah. So to me, I just feel
like you have to pay attention to Like it's been
a weird year of movies. I thought it was actually
a very good year, despite they're not being some massive heavyweight.

(16:01):
Everybody agreed was the Second Coming. But in talking to
a lot of Academy members and voters, one of the
movies people always come back to is Anora, And by
the way, a lot of the movies people come back
to his Brutalist. But it just seems like Brutalist is
like not dead on arrival, but like you know, is
not going to win Best Picture. I think feel like
it had its moment, it had its money. So we
like Mikey Madison here, well you guys do well, you listen.

(16:24):
I'm happy it's going to be to me, Yeah, but
I do.

Speaker 1 (16:26):
I want to talk. I want to get to I
want to get to director, because Lasker, when you and
I spoke, Brady Corbett, I think was who directed The Brutalist. Yeah,
was the odds on favorite at the time, and I
had just seen a Noora. I freaking loved it. I
thought it was amazing. Sean Baker, the director of A

(16:48):
Noor He was I think the second shortest odds now
Sean Baker minus one eighty five Brady Corbett plus one
twenty five. I feel like, if Demi Moore has had
an incredible OSCARS campaign, Britty Corbett peaked and then has

(17:11):
gone downhill since he gave that speech, and now he
just continues to look like a very precious, unself aware director.
And that, along with the fact Anora has gotten so
much more heat the past few months, has catapulted Sean Baker.

Speaker 3 (17:33):
Here's what I would say. I think, you know, I
always want to be politically correct because I work in
this business. I think that Seawan Baker's speeches at the
DGA and at the Indie Spirit Awards were like really
strong and really big rally cries, and look, they're both
incredible artists. They both have been very on the record,

(17:53):
like these guys. I a producer who produced some of
Sewan's movies, who produced a film for one of my clients,
was telling me, like, Sean Baker doesn't moonlight for the
studios and rewrite rom comms for them when he's not
making movies. He is an independent filmmaker. He goes from
one project to the next. He makes it every money
he can make. He literally said in his speech on

(18:14):
Saturday the Indian Spirit Awards. They doesn't have children, and
if he had children, he wasn't sure he'd be able
to survive because of the way him and his wife
you know live, you know, making these movies. And Brady
has been very open on many many interviews and on
many podcasts about you know, the life they're living. Hasn't
made anything off The Brutalist. I thought The Brutalist was
absolutely incredible. Definitely when it like really hit in December,

(18:35):
it was like, Okay, Brutalist is here to stay. He's
going to do it. I don't think the Golden Globe
speech helped, but I think on the bigger level, you know,
I loved the movie, but it's not a movie for everybody,
and it's not a movie where like it landed for everybody.
There's a lot of people that are like that first
half was incredible, second half less incredible. Wasn't sure that

(18:56):
the coda like totally landed, And there's a lot of
people think that it's an absolute masterpiece, but it does
feel like it's faded. I was very surprising didn't win
Best Director from the DGAs, and frankly very surprised they
didn't win to the PGAs because what a lot of
us thought was, we have a bunch of producers voting
on this and the whole story of the Brutalist. One
of the stories has been that they made it for

(19:17):
ten million bucks and it looks like fifty So like,
why would the producers vote for that? Because that's really
impressive and they didn't care. And by the way, Honora
was made for like, you know, a similar amount of money.
And also is it I mean, people love Anora, so
I think you know, yeah, I mean you can't. You
don't have really good odds on Sean Baker, but it
would be very hard to bet against him. The DGA

(19:38):
almost always correlates, and sometimes when it doesn't correlate, that's
because I have to look up the years. I mean,
one of them, notably was nineteen ninety five. In nineteen
ninety five, Ron Howard wins Best Director to the DGA
for Paul thirteen and then is not nominated for the
for the Oscars. And that's when Mel Gibson wins for Braveheart.
So there's years like that where the winner doesn't correlate.

(19:59):
But that's all so a very weird exception when the
winner of the DGA is also nominated for the Oscar.
I'd have to look it up, but like I think,
maybe the last time where it was in both fields
was I want to say, Sam Mendy's one for nineteen
seventeen of the DGAs and then of course Bank Juneo
won at the Oscars, which was a massive like surge
that night because he won so many Academy Awards. But

(20:21):
typically it does correlate, I mean almost always, So I
think you have to go over Sean Baker for director
right now, Well, you.

Speaker 1 (20:28):
Could parlay Sean Baker at minus win eighty five and
to me more at minus three hundred and get a
little better, right, Simon.

Speaker 3 (20:35):
That's it.

Speaker 1 (20:36):
That's what we like to do.

Speaker 3 (20:37):
Well, by the way, speaking of that, and this will
come to a non of the big eight categories, but
it's a category I want to bring up in a
second as it relates to Best Picture. Can you guys
actually bet in real time as the show's going on,
like can you place it? It has to be locked
in now they close it like an hour before. Usually
got it.

Speaker 2 (20:56):
As soon as I hit the red carpet, they almost
all markets go off just because it's like that's where
the information is being shared, right, that's where the leaks
start happening.

Speaker 3 (21:06):
Once into the building, Well once when we get the
best picture. I want to throw out a side category
that could connect to that, but we'll come back to
that in a second.

Speaker 1 (21:16):
All right, So we're going with Anora and Sean Baker.

Speaker 3 (21:21):
Yeah, we're best director.

Speaker 1 (21:22):
Yeah, the Substance to me, we're going to go on
to Best Original Screenplay. And this is a race between
again a Noora, which is about minus I think two
thirty and Substance, which is plus two eighty and a
Real Pain is sort of drifting around on there plus

(21:44):
seven fifty. That's the Jesse Eisenberg movie that he did
with Kieran Culkin. So Anora and Substance both amazing, amazing movies.
I felt like the last twenty minutes of the Substance

(22:06):
kind of went from mind boggling horror slash big think
piece to kind of silly and lazy, whereas Anura like
went from this is a fun, cool, sexy romp with
a really smart lead and kind of a dopey supporting

(22:31):
actor and had a crazy pivot that just made it
more and more insane in a really good way. Simon,
you agree with me on this, you're shaking your head.

Speaker 2 (22:43):
I thought it was good where it just felt like
I don't want to age myself here. But it feels
like so many movies nowadays are four forte and above,
and you don't really get too many twenties in like
twenties in below that's actually well done, right, like you
get kind of these romp comps or whatever. But this
felt like the actual thing of someone from this age,

(23:03):
from my generation, wrote a piece of their life into
a good, actual movie with actual good characters like not
the shit on female roles, but a lot of times
they don't keep them real, right. It's all about either
them chasing a boy or them going through heartbreak or
just something stupid in general, they don't really develop as
a character in this movie. I felt like they really

(23:25):
developed the female role in these characters, which is great
for this time period. Right, it's all about you know,
people my age wanting to get I want to see
things about the things they've gone through in their lives,
and it felt like we had a dead period, right
and the nineties we had a ton, the early two
thousands we had a ton. And then we've had a
run here of maybe one every two years of a
time piece of young people in my age living in

(23:46):
New York or Chicago, LA and showing what the life
is like there. So I'm right there with each other.
That's why I'm shocked to see it's picked up steam
here right Like every category we're going through right here,
they're kind of the favorite, right, So it's interesting they've
picked up so much steam such so late here.

Speaker 3 (24:00):
Well, I think you make a good point. I mean,
you know, some people on other podcasts have talked about
like is Anora does have too much sex to win
like Best Picture, and people reference that, you know, the
only X rated film to ever win Best Picture was
Midnight Cowboy in nineteen sixty nine, and that movie would
not be rady to X sday. That was just because
of the time. There's not even that much sex in it.
I think the thing about Anora what connected to people

(24:21):
is that you just saw her as this real person.
You didn't see her she wasn't a prostitute. She was
a stripper who sometimes would you know, you know, do
other things, you know, as the movie sets up, and
it really I think tapped you into like this is
just a young person who's trying to live their life
and has dreams. And I think a lot of what
people enjoy about the movie is like it's this debate

(24:43):
of like is she dumb? Is she not dumb? Like
she really thinks this guy's in love with it, She
really thinks she's gonna she's gonna be married to this guy.
Like she's surprised that it turns out he's just a
video game loving you know, team you know, and all
that stuff. So what a lot of people thought going
into the nomination you know season, was that, oh, Honora
would be a lock to win Original Screenplay because that

(25:04):
would be the Constellation Prize for Anura. Other movies would
win the other big awards, and now turned out to
have all this momentum. The thing about the substance, And
I do think the screenplay, I mean, the movie is
way too long, but the screenplay is really good. And
what it's saying obviously about like modern beauty and societal standards,
you know, specifically for women, but not to compare one
French movie to another. But I do think back to

(25:25):
Anatomy of a Fall, you know, the movie that won
Best Original Screenplay last year. That movie, to me just
had so much more momentum in the way people talked
about it and what it was sort of analyzing about,
you know, marriage. I think CORALI you know, obviously getting
not director nomination, right a nomination producer nomination is huge.
I still don't think she's gonna win. What's interesting in

(25:45):
talking to a lot of people the last few days,
people do not want to count out a real pain.
Yet he won the Indie Spirit Award on Saturday. The
Town Loves when when actors also write. Emma Thompson adapted
Sentences of Ability in Night ten a five won the
Oscar for Best Adaptation. So I would not entirely be
surprised if he pulled an upset. I still think and

(26:08):
I'm and I'm going you know, as you'll see later,
with just the momentum of like you've got to think
about the end of the night and the next morning
of like what was the story and the only viable
story going into this Academy Awards is anura you know,
it's not going to be a year where something wins
seven eight nine Oscars. Will get back to some of
those stats when we get to Best Picture. But I

(26:29):
think you have to bet on Anora because it would
be surprising to me that like Substance or real Pain
is winning that, and then he's winning Director in Picture
and she's winning actress if we think she's winning actress.
But I don't know. I mean, it's it's another good
you know, up in the air category. I've talked to
Academy voters. They voted for September fifth. You know, that's
obviously not going to win, but you just never know.

(26:49):
That's the beauty. And to remind your listeners at home,
the way the Academy Awards work is that the individual
branches nominate their respective members. So all the writers nominate
the Writing comide. But for this Sunday, everybody who's voting
votes for the entire ballot. So a cinematographer is voting
for screenplay, an actor is voting for screenplay. You know,

(27:10):
somebody who's an at large member because they're in the
business as an agent or a manager or a lawyer,
they're voting for everything. So it's not all just writers
looking at the craft of writing. I do think also,
I mean Sean Baker, and same thing for Brady and
same thing for CORALI. But like Sean Baker has, so
you know, in a major way, been this kind of
outlier of like I'm not in the system, and he's

(27:33):
made other movies that have flirted with the Academy Awards.
I mean, he made The Florida Project, which a lot
of people thought I was going for Best Picture. It wasn't,
but Wilm Dafoe is nominated for Best Supporting Actor. So
like he's been kind of like knocking me on the
door of the Academy and people really really like him
and they really respect him. So I think it could
be a very big night for him. Sean Baker. People

(27:53):
really really like him and they really respect him.

Speaker 1 (27:55):
What do you think happens to that guy's career if
he wins.

Speaker 3 (28:00):
I've talked about this. I asked my friend who produced
a couple movies for him, and she was like, nothing,
he will just keep making movies. He's not gonna You know,
Edward Berger, who's a genius. Every two months you open
up the trades and it's like Edward Berger is doing
Ocean's fourteen. Edward Berger's rebooting The Boorn Supremacy. Like Edward Berger,

(28:21):
who I thought was amazing, we'll talk about Conclave. He
seems to like really be like I'm in Hollywood and like,
give me Hollywood stuff to do. I want to make
huge movies. Sean Baker is an artist. You know, he's
just going to go make his next story. I literally
asked a friend this and she was like, yeah, he's
He's not going to go do a weekly for Warner Brothers,
for Turner fifty grand to help him on a movie.
That's like not who he is.

Speaker 1 (28:43):
Simon, You and I are artists.

Speaker 3 (28:44):
Oh, you guys are total artists.

Speaker 1 (28:45):
Yeah, we would never we would never ever. So I
like the idea. I like the idea of Jesse Eisenberg
getting a little bit of love at plus seven to fifty.
I liked the real pain. I didn't love it.

Speaker 2 (28:56):
Did you watch his speech the other night?

Speaker 1 (28:58):
I thought his speech was great. I think last year
that's maybe why you were thinking Emma Stone is because
he kept referring to Emma Stone in his speech. I thought,
and I thought the speech was great. I thought the
movie was to me okay, and we'll get to Kieran Culkin.
I didn't know you could, you know, be in a
lead for you know, supporting actor or actor. I forgot

(29:23):
what he is for playing yourself apparently that.

Speaker 3 (29:26):
Playing character you already played on a TV show on HBO.

Speaker 1 (29:28):
It's layers, that's basically what he's doing. And he's just,
you know, he seems to be very charming, and people
like to have him at award show, so they just
keep letting him win. All right, let's talk about Best
Picture here for a second, because we're just we're coming
out of original Screenplay. Okay, Honora minus three hundred Conclave

(29:48):
you just mentioned h plus two fifteen, then The Brutalist
plus six hundred, Complete Unknown plus twenty eight hundred. So
I thought Conclave was amazing, and Laskar, you and I
and Simon, I think it was two years ago. The

(30:09):
Menu to me was one of the best movies of
the year.

Speaker 3 (30:12):
You do here on the record, and you love that movie.

Speaker 1 (30:15):
I actually just watched it again. You can see it now.
I think it's on Netflix. It's so freaking good. It
is so good. Conclave obviously reminds me a little bit
of that movie, and because the actors and all that
kind of stuff. But give me your take on Conclave
or is this just anora?

Speaker 3 (30:37):
This one is so up in the air. I mean,
first of all, I really really liked Conclave. I thought yea,
and I actually watched it twice, and the second time
I watched it with my seventy eight year old mother
and she gasped when it ended at the ending, which
was hilarious to watch in real time. I thought it
was great. I mean, I do think, and I want
to be careful not to spoil for people haven't seen it.

(31:00):
I still am not sure that the ending entirely works
of Conclave, like the you know, the kind of what
you find out at the very very end. And I
do think that a lot of these movies that tend
to win Best Picture sometimes they do come down to
like the ending. Like you know, I look back at
twenty eighteen when Green Book beat Roma, and you know,
if you just look at it from like a movie

(31:21):
going standpoint, you know, Roma was a piece of art.
Green Book was a movie that like made you feel
and you remember back to like when the door knocks
at the end of the movie and Marshal Ali is
standing there freezing and they hug each other, and that's
why that movie wins Best Picture. That's what people want
and no different than CODA. And you know twenty twenty

(31:42):
which is non by Land and twenty twenty one is CODA.
Those were weird years because of COVID. But like you
look at CODA when the dad says, I want to
hear you sing and he puts his hand on her
neck to feel her vocal chords. That's why these movies win.
And I kind of thought Conclave botched that a little
bit with you know the twist. I loved the movie
and I thought he was directed within an inch of

(32:03):
its life, and the editing and the photography and the acting,
and I could watch Ray Fines do literally anything. He's
never won an Oscar. He was nominated in ninety three
for Shindler's List for Sporting Actor, in ninety six for
Best Actor for The English Patient, and he's been overlooked
like seven times. Should have been nominated for the Grand
Buddapest Hotel, like another amazing, another movie. He's amazing and

(32:25):
an amazing film. So let's look at some of the
Best Picture of stats. So Honora won the PGA, the DGA,
the WGA, the CCA that's Critics' choice. Brutalist won Golden Globes.
That's like a distant memory. And now Conclave has won
BAFTA and SAG. Okay, all right, let's go to SAG.
They call it Best Ensemble. That's the version of Best Picture.

(32:46):
SAG has been around for twenty nine years. Fifteen of
the twenty nine years of SAG, the winners that have
won Best Ensemble one Best Picture. You guys are numbers, guys,
not good. That's not good. That's fifty to fifty. That's
not good at all. So now there's all kinds of
like substats out there about, like, you know, get people

(33:08):
that are way smarter than me, that are like, you know, well,
the last time a movie only one X and Y
and one SAG one Best Picture, and like one of
those was Coda, you know what I mean. So this
has happened recently. The way I look at uh SAG ensemble,
to be quite honest, is sometimes I think people are
truly voting for an ensemble, you know, literally the word

(33:28):
and Conclave is an ensemble. You know, you've got like
nine people with major parts. Anora has four people in it, right,
it has you know, Mikey, it has the guy who's nominated,
you know, the Russian you know guy that she has
Russian Timothy right, then it has the Russian Timothy Schell
made the other guy, and then it has the older
guy who I loved. I need to write their names

(33:50):
down for a future podcast appearance. But it's it. It's
a four person movie. I don't think people see it
as an ensemble. So with all that said, there's only
two movies really now that feel like they could win,
and it's Anora. In Conclave, there was a feeling on
the day the nominations, a complete Unknown had a real chance.
People thought because of the preferential ballot that it could

(34:13):
be so many people's ones, twos, and threes it could
get there. I loved that movie, but I just don't
feel like it's shown any real momentum in any of
the other precursor awards. I never thought Wicked was going
to win. Brutalist is completely faded, so it's a nourra
in Conclave. Now. The funny thing about Conclave is that
it is the quintessential older Academy movie, you know. And

(34:34):
I talked to one Academy member that is in his seventies,
like a month ago, and he was like, it's a
process movie. And people in Hollywood love process movies because
it's kind of like making a movie, you know, so
it has a shot. Doesn't matter that it didn't get
a Best Director nomination. Coda did not have a Best
Director nomination and one Best Picture. Argo in twenty twelve

(34:57):
did not have a Best Director anomation nomination. One Best Picture.
Driving Miss Daisy in nineteen eighty nine did not have
a Best Director nomination one Best Picture happens all the time.
The Best Director race was unbelievably competitive this year. So
what I was going to talk about earlier, and this
is why I asked you, you know, Chad and Simon
about because you vote during the show. So let's talk
about Best Editing. Okay, pre nineteen ninety nine, usually the

(35:20):
movie that won Best Picture also won Best Editing because
there was a feeling that like, if it's the best
movie of the year, it was obviously the best edited
film of the year, because that means the movie is
put together in the best possible way. If you look
in the nineties, movies like Schindler's List, Dance with the Wolves, Unforgiven,
Forrest Gump, you know, on and on and on. From
nineteen ninety nine until now, only nine films that have

(35:44):
won Best Editing also won Best Picture, right, So it
doesn't correlate now at all. It did correlate the last
two years Obenheimer won Best Editing and everything everywhere all
once one Best Editing. But what happens now a lot
of times is Best Editing will go to maybe a
more unique film, like in nineteen Night nine it went
to the Matrix, you know, so it might go to

(36:04):
a movie that like really stood out for its editing.
One year, one of the Born movies, I think The Supremacy,
the second one one Best Editing. People remember those movies
were edited in really cool ways, like how they did
the fight scenes. So meanwhile, the five Best Picture, the
five Best Editing nominees are Amelia Prez, Conclave, Wicked, Anora,

(36:24):
and The Brutalist. Okay, well, we know Amelia Prez is
not winning Best Picture, and we don't think Wicked's winning
Best Picture, and we don't think The Brutal is winning
Best Picture. And what do you have left Conclave and Anora?
So here's my point. When you're watching the show on Sunday.
If Conclave wins Best Editing, assume it's probably winning Best Picture.
You know. And by the way, it's interesting that movie
was edited. The editing was incredible. Now I think the

(36:48):
editing of Anora was incredible too. I think the movie
was too long. I think most movies are too long today.
But you know, so you have to really that can
be a really strong precursor award going back up to
Best Picture. I mean, I still will go with Anura
because I'm just going to go with the momentum. And
I also think that if you are looking at the
proferential system of like what's in the top one, twos

(37:09):
and threes, you know, the movies I have heard anecdotally
about from the most people that I talked to that
are in the Academy are a nourra burillist and actually
a complete unknown. Because one of the things that a
complete unknown did, which you can imagine, I mean, you're
not a boomer, Chad, You're you're right after the boomers,
but the boomers right after. I would say, okay, twenty.

Speaker 1 (37:28):
Years after, long long after, Okay, okay, very long after.

Speaker 3 (37:32):
Okay, excuse me, but I'm telling you the people I
had two clients in New York who went to one
of the Complete Unknown Oscar screenings and they were like,
we were the youngest. These guys are both in their forties,
Like we were actually a client and a friend, and
they were like, we were twenty years younger than everybody
in the room. And people went nuts, and as you know,
and I felt this way. I felt this way about

(37:55):
Elvis a couple of years ago, which was that what
And I like the movie Elvis, but I think Elvis
resonated with the Academy is that a quarter of the
Academy was alive for Elvis Presley and they were like,
oh my god, like this is my childhood. This is
when I was twenty, this when I was thirty. I
remember Elvis Presley and I loved to Complete Unknown. I
was so happy Mangold was nominated and Monica Barbara. I

(38:16):
had them both on my nomination list that I made
the night before like a nerd. And I thought the
movie was great. I thought Mangold crushed it. And I
think there is that feeling of like he went out
and he recreated the Bob Dylan these four years that
a lot of us know. And when I talked to
a friend of mine whose mother is a retired producer
who's in the Academy, and she told me that her

(38:37):
mother and her dad literally got out all their Bob
Dylan albums like that week and like put them on
the mantle, like to kind of like pay respect, you know,
back to Bob Dylan. So I would say to me,
those are only three movies that really have a chance.
I think the Brutalis is out a lot of the
other movies in the top ten, you know, from you know,
Nickel Boys to you know, I'm Still here, you know,

(39:00):
to the Substance. I mean, they ever never going to win.
So I think you have to go with an Aura.

Speaker 1 (39:06):
All right, then it's going to be anura. We're getting
into a noora like sweep category at this point.

Speaker 3 (39:14):
Well that's where my head is at. I'm sorry to
rupt you. Is that is at the end of it,
you'll be like, okay, anor one picture director, screenplay actress,
maybe picked up another one, and then you'll be like okay,
one like four or five oscars, And that will make
sense because the other thing I was gonna mention earlier
is that which I touched on, is that you know,
a lot of these Best Picture winners now they win

(39:34):
less than five Oscars, so like Aubenheimer and everything everywhere,
each one seven. But then when you look back in
the previous you know, several years Code one three, no
Medland one three, Parasite one four, green Book one three,
Spotlight one two, are Go one three, So we're definitely
still out of this like huge epic, you know phase.
I mean, if The Brutalist ended up being the dominating movie,

(39:57):
that could have won like seven, eight or nine, but
just not meant to be. But I'm sorry I interrupted you.

Speaker 1 (40:02):
Now, when you look back on history, green Book winning
three Oscars is gonna be one of those years where
you're like, what the fuck were people? Thank you? It's
a sweet movie.

Speaker 3 (40:12):
I liked green Book.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
It was fine, totally fine, Simon. The twenty seventeen Academy
Awards presentation featured one of the biggest live gaps in
the history of modern television. Many will remember that for
the final category of the night, the incorrect winner was
announced for Best Picture. This sent the entire broadcast into
complete chasts, tarnished the reputation of the Academy, and generally

(40:37):
embarrassed people on the biggest stage, and there's something else
that can send each of us into complete chaos, something
else that can tarnish our reputations. Signmon, something else they
can embarrass you on your biggest stage inferior, low quality underwear.

(40:58):
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(41:21):
of Tommy John in twenty twenty.

Speaker 3 (41:24):
Five because comfort is gang.

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Save twenty five percent of Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Laskar chuckled at that,
which was fun.

Speaker 3 (41:42):
Well, I actually thought you were going towards a piece
of trivia, and then the way you tied it into
the underwear at.

Speaker 1 (41:46):
It, I can take no credit. It's all that, and
it's the first time I read these without having read
them before, and so I am I'm reading it. I'm
learning the story as I go. It's like reading.

Speaker 3 (41:58):
That's why they feel so natural.

Speaker 1 (42:00):
Yeah, as I go, And so it's so fun. I
can't wait to see how it ends. All right, best
actor Timothy Shallamy.

Speaker 3 (42:06):
He just won SAG and then let's say, I looked
at my stats. Okay, so let me give you.

Speaker 1 (42:10):
While you're looking at the stats, let me just give
the answer. Because while he won the SAG Adrianan Brody
at the Brutalist minus two twenty five Timothy Shallomey plus
one forty Ray Finds plus twelve hundred, and everything sort
of skyrockets from there. Appropriately. So, look, Shalome wants to
do what Brody did, which is win it as the

(42:31):
youngest person ever. As you mentioned, Brody did it. What
was it twenty five years ago or whatever?

Speaker 3 (42:36):
Yeah, two thousand and two.

Speaker 1 (42:37):
Yeah, give it to us, tell us what's well?

Speaker 3 (42:41):
Look, I mean again, what's interesting is that you know,
Shalmy hadn't won anything until Sunday Night, and then he
won the SAG Award. Now SAG since twenty ten has
gone twelve or fourteen predicting Best Actor. The notable exceptions
were Denzel Washington won for Fences in twenty sixteen, as
opposed to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea, and
then in twenty twenty, Chadick Boseman won for Ma Rainey's

(43:03):
Black Bottom instead of Anthony Hopkins for The Father. Now,
I had Anthony Hopkins winning that night at the Oscars
because if you watch Ma Raine's Black Bottom, he really
was a supporting person of that movie, and I actually thought,
I don't think people are going to vote for him,
just because unfortunately he tragically had passed away. So to me,
I feel like looking I mean, both of those from
SAG were just sort of like none of those made

(43:25):
sense because even Denzel and Fences wasn't really contending as
like maybe the runner up from Casey anyways, and a
lot of the other races that were being predicted that
year back in twenty sixteen, so it's pretty predictive. I mean, look,
it's it's so tricky because there's definitely this feeling of
like Challo May is our new Leo, and like, let's

(43:46):
make him work for it. Leo didn't win until he
was nominated, I think in his fifth time in twenty
fifteen for The Revenant. But shall may. I mean it's cool.
I mean he's a special, special actor. I think he's
unbelievable in the movie this. This is such a toss up.
I mean, I think I would still lean Adrian just

(44:08):
because he won so many of the early awards, and
I think people think he's just so amazing in that movie.
And I do think there's a little bit of a
sense of like Shalome will be back so many more times.
There was this weird narrative of like, you know, Adrian
Brody already won for this exact same role in The Pianist,
which that's a very reductive thing to say, just because
they're both, you know, Jewish Holocaust survivors. He's amazing in

(44:30):
The Brutalist. So I would still lean Brody. But it's
another toss up.

Speaker 1 (44:35):
Snon loves to Mithew Shaname he's amazing. I did.

Speaker 2 (44:39):
I think it's he's in a rare spot where, like
he talked about Leo, Leo probably would have won if
things were a little different in the nineties, where it
was really you got to earn it before you can
get it. Where I feel like there's been a shift
nowadays where you know, someone like him, I feel like
he has put in the work and movies do they
need a movie like we need young movie stars. We're

(45:02):
in this weird thing where, like I love Michael B. Jordan,
I thought he was gonna be the next one to
step up for people around my age. He kind of hasn't.
And there's been this void still of someone to fill
this void of the next Leo tom Cruise type, like
someone that you know like there was there's there's strutches
of different people, like even Brad Pitt. I put him
on the same pedestal where Matt Damon too. They make

(45:23):
a movie, I don't care what the movie is. I
go and see it, and they think they know they
need to start getting back to that with this younger
generation because we have had some dead like duds, Like
you know, I like Zach Effron, He's kind of a dud.
He didn't really turn out to be the guy like
I love Iron Claw, but I had to beg people
to go see that movie. They weren't going to see
it simply because Zach Effron's in it. Where you know,

(45:46):
if that was the nineties or eighties and it's Tom
Cruise in the Iron Claw. Everyone's seeing it, men and women.
So yeah, I think Timmy's in this cool spot of
his range of doom to then do a movie like
this right where he can be the action star guy.
And you know, I just think he could pull the
upsete off here, Like I love that he's a dog
in this number. And I do think it's like after

(46:09):
how he gave that speech at SAG where it's like
he's not backing away from it, He's lean into it.
Be like I want to be great. I want to
be the big guy. I do like that. I wonder
your percession of it is that gonna hurt him or
benefit him?

Speaker 3 (46:21):
Well, the thing is the voting was the voting was
done on like February twenty ohr eighteenth, though the voting
closed like ten days ago, so it doesn't really matter.
I mean, look, I think honestly, for people that are
betting on this, it's like take Schalamey for Best Actor,
take to be More for Best actress, Like just head
your bets, you know what I mean? Like, look, I
thought Shallome was unreal in that movie. I would be

(46:42):
so happy if he wins. I don't know if this
one is just like a complete complete uh toss up.
But you're right, he definitely has been annoyed as like
he's going to be the next guy. But the SAG
Awards are always pretty late. Somebody said that they were
moved because of the LA fires, but yeah, I mean
they're you know, the voting has been done so and look,
I think shall May he was already doing so much press.

(47:02):
I mean, he played himself as Bob Dylan on SNL,
like you know, he was leaving it all out on
the on the floor these days exactly.

Speaker 1 (47:14):
I want to take Shallo May here.

Speaker 3 (47:17):
I love.

Speaker 1 (47:19):
I thought the movie was amazing, just rush it. But again,
I'm close to Boomer so it's almost almost my music.
But I've never been a Bob Dylan guy. And I
watched that movie and then couldn't stop listening. You know,
I was your friend's parents like just streaming Dylan NonStop

(47:42):
because he was so so good in this movie. I
also found him to be and you know, I'm a sucker,
so incredibly charming on his press tour right yea in
college game day, he was amazing. And then the old
stuff surfaced about what a huge Knicks fan he was,
and his sports knowledge, I mean that connected with me.
And then so then it was just this guy who

(48:04):
I want to hang out with. Andy happens to be
a great actor and he's so freaking ambitious, which I loved.
Simon to your point, I love that speech, and I
like the way Adam Sandler says Timothy Shallowy.

Speaker 3 (48:17):
Of course, no, he's he's amazing. It would be very
cool if he won. And I mean Adrian Birdie already
has an Oscar. But yeah, I think because Adrian Birdie
won in two thousand and two. You know, people I
saw amos at an Academy member yesterday, it's like, do
you want to put Adrian Brody in the two timer? Club?
Is winning two best after Oscars? But it's so far apart,
I don't think people really think about it. And by

(48:37):
the way, in this newer era, we've had a lot
of people win two Oscars relatively fast. I mean, Emma
Stone won two in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty three,
Christoph Waltz won two two thousand and nine twenty twelve,
Mershaw Alie won two twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen. I mean,
like it's happening kind of faster. I don't think people
care about that stuff as much anymore. It's a total

(48:58):
toss up. I mean, I literally might change my mind
at like four o'clock on Sunday when I like finished
doing my ballot at my house.

Speaker 1 (49:04):
You know, oscars are practically a participation trophy now, the
way they're just giving away. They don't even have standards anymore.
Best Adapted Screenplay Conclave runaway here has.

Speaker 3 (49:16):
To be relatively weak category. The other thing too, going
back to Best after for one second, just again thinking
about what happens the next day. One thing that's happened
recently with the Academy Awards is every year there have
been some major major movies with like ten or eleven
nominations to get nothing. Notably Killers of Flower Moon, Irishmen
Banshees of an Asheron Tar like Tarn Banshees each had

(49:40):
nine nominations, got zero, so completely unknown as eight nominations, like,
don't be surprised if it wins zero oscars, Like that's
just how it shakes out sometimes now. But back to adapted, Yeah,
Conclave has been the runaway you know favorite for this
you know, non stock you know the entire narrative, the
entire year, and I don't see why wouldn't win. You

(50:01):
can't go off the WGA's. It's very confusing because thinking
about the WGA's, they only nominate WGA scripts, and a
lot of these movies you get nominated for oscars are
written by foreign, non American writers who are not in
the WGA. So I don't think Conclave was even eligible
at the w's. The Brutalist wasn't eligible, blah blah blah blah.
So the Conclave is gonna win. I don't see anything

(50:22):
upsetting it. I can't ever. I mean, I know, like
Complete Unknown was nominated. I'm forgetting Oh Nickel Boys, that's
not going to win. Yeah, I'm forgetting the other two
nomination Amelia Perez not gonna win and Sing Sing, Yeah,
not gonna win. The Sing Sing nomination. I loved Sing Sing.
I was bummed it was nominated for Best Picture. That
was definitely a way of nominating the guys behind that
movie to like show them some love. But it's not

(50:44):
gonna win.

Speaker 1 (50:45):
This does feel like the award that is Conclave's consolation, right,
Like it's sort of second place in a lot of
different categories and this is the one. Everyone can be like, oh.

Speaker 3 (50:56):
Yeah, but but how about this. What if Conclave wins
Best Editing, Best at After Screenplay, and Best Picture with
no director nomination. You know, that would be tantamount too
a little movie called Argo.

Speaker 1 (51:08):
I was just going to say, that feels Argo at.

Speaker 3 (51:10):
Argo, you know. So it's possible. It's completely, completely possible,
and it's that's why it's fun, and that's you know,
the new proferential balloting they do is really interesting, and
Conclave could win. You know, the BAFTAs are are to
be taken seriously because the Academy has gotten very international,
has a much more international voting body. Although I think

(51:34):
the producers of Conclave were British and so you could
argue because it won Best British Film and it won
Best Film at BAFTA, so you know, maybe a one
because it was kind of the hometown favorite a little bit.
You know, I don't know, I really liked it. If
it wins, I'll be okay with that. I think there's
parts of Conclave that are incredible.

Speaker 1 (51:52):
Yeah, she's an inter sharing by the way, you.

Speaker 3 (51:54):
Know, you're you're on the record you loved inter Sharing.

Speaker 1 (51:57):
I thought that was as good a examination of the
price of success, the price of a life like that was.

Speaker 3 (52:06):
Well, it was about you and Simon. It was I mean,
you saw you and Simon's relationship reflected between Branglemon has
told me.

Speaker 1 (52:12):
So many times, if I keep talking to him, he
is just going to start cutting off the body.

Speaker 3 (52:16):
Exactly.

Speaker 1 (52:17):
You can't babom wasting any more time when there is
real stuff to be done. Correct, best supporting actress.

Speaker 3 (52:26):
Both of these are locked. I mean not to you know,
they're locked.

Speaker 1 (52:30):
She was the pick when you and I spoke like,
she was the odds on.

Speaker 3 (52:33):
She and the Amelia press controversy did not affect her
on any level for the obvious reasons of she's great
in the movie, She's beloved in the business. It's kind
of a weak category this year, and people are not
that you know, uh mean, they're not going to like
hold that against her. She's she's getting up there, and
she has played her press and speeches post the controversy perfectly.

(52:54):
She's she's winning.

Speaker 1 (52:56):
She was so good in that movie. Yeah, she danced
that scene when they're at that dinner. You know, there's
thousands of people there and she is dancing in the
middle of the tables, Like her movement is great, her
voice is amazing, she speaks Spanish so much in the movie,

(53:17):
Like she was tremendous. This is a no brainer. Lock
it in. She's minus three thousand, no discussion. Ye's so,
then the question is, as you just said, best Supporting Actor,
Kieran Culkin in a real pain. He's minus five thousand.
He's been winning everything.

Speaker 3 (53:37):
He's a log as well. Look, I think in both
categories you could do fun upsets if you want to
try to make some money. Going back to supporting actress,
I did talk to her Academy member last week who
not only told me they were voting for Isabelle Rossellini,
but also we're like, oh, yeah, she's winning. It's kind
of the same thing as to me. More it's like
a career oscar. I do not think she's going to win,
but maybe if you wanted to find like a fun upset.

(53:58):
And I think in supporting actor there's two upsets to
be at, because because Kieran obviously seems to be winning,
one would be Yuri Borisov from Anora if you want
to go the full Honora like sweep. But the other
one the performance that everybody talks about in Hollywood is
Jeremy Strong. Yeah, and when you think about the fact

(54:20):
that Sebastian Stan was also nominated, shows you some real
love for that movie. And Jeremy Strong is just having
one of those moments where people are like, no one
quite knows what to make of him. He seems really weird,
but he's a hell of an actor. And don't be surprised,
I mean be hysterical because him and Kieran obviously were
on a show together for four years, and you know

(54:41):
how whatever relationship they have, I don't know. They both
seem odd frankly, but but Kieran probably is gonna win.
In the last ten to fifteen years, we're better or worse.
The supporting categories calcify really early, and I can barely
remember upsets. You know, I'd have to think about, but
there's very, very, very few upsets that come to mind.

Speaker 1 (55:03):
Isabella Rosselini in Conclave plus two thousand. I feel like
she had five lines in the movie. I agree that
wasn't a supporting actor in any sense. She was like,
you know, a cameo.

Speaker 3 (55:20):
Yeah, I completely completely agree with you, and I was
I actually didn't even have her on my nomination ballot,
you know, but like Felicity, you know, Jones never really
took flight, Ariana Grande never took flight. And who the
fifth one would have? Who's the fifth one of that category?

Speaker 1 (55:35):
Blank?

Speaker 3 (55:35):
And was Monica Barbaro, who I love, but again not
I mean her nomination is the win.

Speaker 1 (55:45):
Yes, I feel like I feel like she was great,
but you know, it's not like maybe a lot of
people could have done that part and she just hadn't
be really good at that part. It's always al Donna.
I don't know anyone else who could have on this
part like she was. She put her stamp on it.
She was brilliant. It was her.

Speaker 3 (56:06):
She was. The interesting thing about Monica Barbarro. I was
talking to Fred Berger, the nominated producer of A Complete Unknown,
who's a really good friend of mine, and I was saying,
next time at a wedding at the end of the
Christmas break and right is the movie is kind of surging,
and I was just peppering him with a gazillion questions
and a lot of this has been in the press now.

(56:27):
I mean Monica, I don't think she actually could sing
when they cast her they I mean, she could carry
a tune. They must have been able to suggest that somehow,
but they had to teach her to be able to
sing like that, and they ended up, you know, had
they all these shutdowns with COVID and so forth. And
I mean, she's amazing in the movie. I thought she
was just incredible.

Speaker 1 (56:45):
Also great in Top Gun Maverick, she's amazing.

Speaker 3 (56:48):
I was flying bat them buying flying back from New
York last weekend. I rewatched the final scene of Top
Gun Maverick about four times in a row. Failed tears
every time when he says, thank you for saving my life,
and then Miles Teller says, is what my father would
have done. And it's so brilliant because he saved his

(57:08):
life technically by rescuing him, but he saved his life
by giving him purpose. It's an incredible movie.

Speaker 1 (57:14):
It's a dude. I've seen it so many times. I've
made my kid watch it probably four times, and I've
made him watch the original Top Gun, which I still love.
It's much slower than it's interesting. You watch movies now,
Like my kid was sick last week and so we

(57:36):
ended up watching a bunch of movies together. We did
like we did Meet the Parents and then we did
we did Wedding Crashers, and like, even the difference between
those two movies as comedies with just a few years
between them, the pacing is different, right, And so one
of the nights I just happened to watch All the

(57:57):
Right Moves with Tom Cruise from nineteen eighty three, Tom
Cruising Lea Thompson, Right. My wife was out of town
this weekend, so like, and I don't have any friends,
so I was just watching a lot of movies, and
All the Right Moves was on you know, Amazon Prime
in the first row. So I watched it. It's so
and I was gonna call my kid up from the

(58:18):
basement and play in two k to come watch it
with me. And it's so slow. I'm like, he'll walk
out in two seconds. It's a great I loved it,
but it is so slow.

Speaker 3 (58:27):
Well, there's all these movies from that era where like
the first acts are forty minutes long, and like, yeah,
I mean people today, granted we're making really long movies
right now, but people just would not They just wouldn't
get how much time. But then you know, there are
actual there's funny examples. I have to clock it but
if you go back and watch Tutsie, I think it's
like minute nine when he's the woman he goes to

(58:49):
lunch with Sidney Pollock, and Sydney Pollock is like, you're busted.
Nobody likes working with you. You got to like shake it
up hard. Cut to him walking down the street of
New York dressed as Dorothy Michael and you just buy
it because you know he's an actor. You know he
has access to makeup, bright hair and that and that's
it and they and it's one of the fastest buy
ins for a movie ever, you know. But uh yeah,

(59:10):
a lot of those movies they take their time. So anyways,
I mean, look, as you guys know, it's a it's
a great year. I mean, I thought it was a
great year for movies there. It's going to be really
spread around on Sunday and there's still like a lot
of surprises to come. It's exciting.

Speaker 1 (59:25):
It is exciting. Michael Laskar, you are a super powerful
manager at Mosaic, and so we appreciate you coming on
the favorite podcast to waste your time with us. Simon
is going to chop off all those fingers after probably
the next few episodes, of talking to me. So this
was a good rest bite for him.

Speaker 3 (59:45):
You guys didn't You didn't even give any trivia this.

Speaker 1 (59:47):
Time, Matt Mitchell, do we have any trivia? I mean, Michael,
you're we know you're a savant. Our listeners know your savant.

Speaker 2 (59:56):
The Hollywood reporter knows you're a powerful and so powerful.

Speaker 1 (01:00:01):
I didn't make you. Uh, we didn't need to wheel
out that parlor trick.

Speaker 3 (01:00:04):
Okay, Okay, I'll ask you one thing.

Speaker 1 (01:00:06):
I'll ask you one thing.

Speaker 3 (01:00:07):
Oh, I hope I get it right.

Speaker 1 (01:00:08):
And this is this is more of an opinion to
see if you can match sort of my perspective on
pop culture. Yes, earlier in the show we mentioned Green
Book as a movie. I think it's should not have
won three Oscars, should not have won. I think it
won Best Picture that year, should not have won. Can

(01:00:32):
you name What's in My Head as the other movie
that looking back is on the wrong side of history
and given the competition and how those movies have played
out historically over the past, say twenty five years, should
not have won Best Picture but did win because of
the marketing, might have a certain studio.

Speaker 3 (01:00:53):
Well, you have to be referring to Shakespeare in Love.
Michael Asker, you have won again. I mean, it's funny.
People talk about it all the time. Harvey, who's in
prison for life where he should be, he changed it forever.
I was talking to an exec who worked at Miramax
in the mid nineties, and she was telling me, she

(01:01:14):
was like an assistant. This was the year of Ill Postina,
which is a very beautiful Italian film that Miramax got
a Best Picture and Director and actor nomination, that the
actor had died, Masimo Treesi, and he was nominated possionously
for Best Actor. And she was like, it was like basically,
Harvey ran the campaigns like political campaigns, and they would

(01:01:35):
get the numbers of all the Academy members, and all
these assistants would sit in a room and they would
dial up. There was no cell phones. They would dial
people up at home. They'd say, have you watched Ill Postino?
Can I tell you all about it? Blah blah blah
blah blah. And he just completely changed the face of campaigning.
I don't think I don't really think that people like
I don't think there's like, you know, people are actually

(01:01:55):
trying to hurt people, like when that AI thing came
out about, like how they altered Adrian Rody's voice for
some of the foreign language and brutalists. I don't think
that's like a plant. I don't think you know, people
have been wondering, like was it a rival movie that
dug up that the tweets from the Starving lay Prez No,
I don't believe any of that. But everything just obviously

(01:02:15):
is more amplified than it's ever been now. And yeah,
I mean people look back at Shakespeare Love, but the
thing is, and I love Sam Briar Ryan, but when
it lost, even in that moment, I reconciled that, like, well,
let's break the movie down, like it's the greatest first
act in the history of movies basically, and then it

(01:02:36):
is really strong. But like, I don't remember actually feeling that, Like,
I mean, I like the third act a lot, you know,
when they have to like defend you know, the bridge
and everything, But I don't remember actually thinking in the
end the movie was like perfect Shakespeare in Love and
Chad and I year old enough as am I I
was in college. That movie really knocked people. That took
people by storm. It was so clever and the acting

(01:02:59):
was incredible in the writing was incredible and the way
it kind of created this amalgamation of where all his
stories came from. So like, I don't personally think I
thought you were gonna say Crash because people talk about
Crash beating broke By.

Speaker 1 (01:03:10):
That's another one.

Speaker 3 (01:03:11):
I don't think Shakespeare Love is that bad. There are
worse Oscar winners than Shakespeare in Love. I mean, in
that movie, it ended up winning the most Oscars of
the night because it won Actress, Supporting Actress, Best Picture,
Best Original Screenplay, and it won some like below the
line stuff. So I think Sampire won four and they
won five or something like that. So I don't think
it was so controversial. What's controversial is it was the

(01:03:33):
beginning of Harvey being a terrorist and kind of willing
his might on people. And you know, you want to
talk about controversial. The artist. Another Harvey Weinstein special wins
Best Picture in twenty eleven, right over movies like The
Descendants and other good movies that year, and like, have
you has anybody ever talked about the artist ever again?

(01:03:54):
Picture Director, Actor, Like that was a Harvey Weinstein special.

Speaker 1 (01:04:00):
I had just had my first grandkid when Shakespeare in
love now you know you have a baby face because
I'm old. I'm old, Simon. That was the joke. Laster,
You're the best brother. Thanks for coming on.

Speaker 3 (01:04:14):
So wonderful seeing you guys. Let's compare notes on Sunday
and Monday, and you know, happy heavy betting to your audience.

Speaker 1 (01:04:21):
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(01:05:02):
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