March 4, 2025 • 44 mins
Listeners have submitted dozens of questions, and Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to answer some of their favorites. Together they discuss the most hopeless franchises in the NFL, the biggest changes in sports betting since PASPA's repeal, the proper way to fight Chris Long, and so much more.
Plus, they invite all Chicagoland fans far and wide to RSVP NOW for the free Favorites March Madness live event, March 29th at Joe's on Weed in Chicago. #Volume #herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from
our Tommy Jones home studios. I'm joined as always by
my co host, my companion, Mike Padre, my BFF professional
better Assignmon Hunter ed.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Oh, so I am mad Chad. How is your birthday week? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Oh my god, dude, I got so lucky. I do
a trip every year with friends, all my high school
buddies and their wives. There's about twenty five people that go.
We've been going for seven or eight years. It's the
highlight of my year. It is a phenomenal weekend, no kids.
It is constant ball busting laughing. It is truly a
(00:57):
gift of a trip. And my birthday happened to be
the weekend of this trip this year, so it was
just it was a weekend of love and laughter, a
day of love and laughter turning old and it was fantastic.
Simon just great.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Well, so other us were working watching the combine, So
I'm happy you had a good time. I was literally
bored out of my mind. I always forget how much
I love and hate the combine. It's cool at moments.
Other moments are just like what am I doing in
my life? Why am I even watching this? Am I
gaining anything from this? So yeah, another weekend of NFL
Combine gone, and yeah, already onto the next season. Brother,
it feels like that's the kickoff party. So into twenty
(01:36):
twenty five week go.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
I did get a nice text from you, which I loved.
So kind of you to think of me on my birthday.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
Well, I was gonna call, but God bless women. Dude.
I was out at dinner with a girl and the
luckily I was with her the day before and told
her I had texted you to make sure throughout the dinner.
She goes, you call your buddy, Chad. I go, holy shit,
I almost reach out to them before the birthday. Did
hit him on the birthday, So thank god for women.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
I'm a big fan of a preemptive birthday text, like
if I remember, if I remember the day before, I'm like,
oh shit, it's their birthday tomorrow. I'll send it the
day before me like this counts is your birthday text?
I'm not sure it's going to enter the banks tomorrow.
Speaking of NFL, signmon. Today is our first off season
mailback episode. We're going to answer questions submitted from listeners.
(02:22):
As you would expect, so many of these questions are
NFL related. So I'm glad you're thinking about it. I'm
thinking about it. We've both put in futures bets into
the app. I've already put in I think the Niners,
and I put in the Packers. You've put in the Rams.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
I did put it. The Rams in got it.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Rams didn't come up when we had our last conversation
for what they did.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
I like the Rams, I said, I just didn't bet
them because the unknown of Stafford. Once I knew what
was gonna happen with Stafford was going to do it.
And yeah, I mean, we can get into it, but
it was definitely a weekend of rumors, I'll tell you
that much. Chad like the hold Stafford to the Raiders. Yeah,
I almost got caught in that one because I thought
that was like, legit gonna happen. He was basically like
a done deal kind of thing. And then the last
(03:09):
minute the Rams came back and we're just like, you know,
we'll pay you. So, yeah, Glad, I did not put
the Raiders into the Action app because that's looking like
a Sam Darnold kind of bet. So yeah, glad I
avoided the Raiders Super Bowl Futures bet.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
Well, look, if you had put in the Raiders, it
could have been in our mail bag. Twenty twenty six.
Is your worst futures bet of twenty twenty nives out,
which is one of the questions that we have today
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Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Okay, before we get into
the questions, don't forget. You can officially RSVP for our free, free,
free favorites live show event in the greatest city in
the world, Chicago, Illinois. This will be for the Elite
(04:27):
eight March Madness Games on Saturday, March twenty ninth the
Joe's Bar on Weed Street also known more popularly known
as Joe's on Weed in Chicago. Free event, free drinks,
free live show. You must RSVP to reserve your spot.
Follow the link in this episode's description. What are we
doing there? We'll do an exclusive pregame Elite eight betting
(04:51):
show before tip with Stucky Action Network OG Stucky Jim
Root both of them at our Big Bets on Campus podcast.
Jim Rude, of course, one of the three man Weave
members one of the best college basketball analytics groups in
the country. We're going to break down the games from
(05:12):
a betting perspective. We'll do some trivia giveaways. We should
we should have another truckload of merch on hand if
those who were in Philly can recall it. Was basically
a moment in which Matt Mitchell created questions for people
to bash me and then get free hoodies. So that
(05:32):
sounds like it's going to be a good time. Some
folks might have asked why Chicago. One of the biggest
reasons It's Bet three sixty five is launching in the
state of Illinois in the weeks ahead. Very exciting development
for the fine folks of Illinois, my statehood brethren. All Right, Simon,
first question, the day before our Chicago live show. Friend
(05:54):
of the podcast, Chris Long turns forty. Man's getting old.
We love Chris. He retired after a stellar career as
a defensive end, a fantastic career, multiple Super Bowls. He's
hosted the green Light podcast for many years now. Most importantly,
Chris Long was and remains a physical beast. So the
(06:15):
question is, if we froze my current physical condition in place,
what age would Chris Long have to be for me
in Chad Milman twenty twenty five years to confidently defeat
him in a fight. What do you think? The answer is,
I mean.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
I think you're scrappy, Chad. I think you're a little
scrapp for the people perceive so I guess, just because
of the genetic freak, I guess at some point in
his eighties, right, like his hips, his knees, something's gonna
go on that guy. He's pushed his body to the limit.
Chad here not so much. So I feel like you
have an advantage there. So I guess, Yeah, I guess
(06:55):
Chris Long eighty five, Chad could easily take him down.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
All right, So I thought a lot about this. And
you know, I exercise a lot. I'm on the rowing machine,
I'm on the peloton, I do light weightlifting. You know,
I'm about bone density, I'm about flexibility, I'm about stability,
I'm about eating right, I'm about BO two max, all
those things. I'm looking for health span, Okay, not lifespan,
(07:20):
health span. And I believe I am in better physical
condition today than I've been in my entire life. So
if I was able to freeze this in place. My
diet consists of nuts, legomes, beans, occasional chicken, lots of salmon, vegetables,
(07:43):
very little sugar, very little processed food. I am a
specimen right now, Simon. I like I have tensile strength,
tensile strength. I'm doing the weighted step ups, and you
got a dumbbell in both hands. I'm stepping up. I
did it at the gym when we were in Palm Springs.
I went twice in the three days we were there.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
I think any of this is going to help you
in a fight in any way.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
My point, it's a good time for me to freeze
myself in place. The age for Chris long for me.
You said eighty five. I wrote down eighty three, and
my thoughts were, by then, maybe he'll have let himself go.
Like clearly he's physical marvel, naturally gifted, naturally athletic, naturally strong,
(08:29):
and then he did all the work with criored on
top of that, which he maintains. He's taller, he's stronger.
But I think by eighty three, maybe he's let himself go.
I think some of the achiness from football, like he
might not be able to move around. I'll be able to,
you know, maneuver, scurry, deflect. So I had it at
(08:50):
eighty three, Oh.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Said, that's the only way you could beat him, because
if he got his hands on you, it would even
at that age, old man's strength. Like I was gonna say,
I've seen like you were talking about you beat in
great shape. I've seen guys in peak physical fitness get
dropped by senior citizens because it's all about technique and fighting,
and Chris had the ultimate cheek code. He has a
house full of freak brothers who I'm sure they fought
(09:14):
a ton growing up. So yeah, we would both need
Chris to be incredibly old to be able to take
him down.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
You're right, the brother factor and sort of the muscle
memory of being in that position. It's not the same
for me, given that I had a sister who was
seven years younger than I am. At all, we get
a lot of questions about your model, namely, what are
the most important inputs, So let's start with that question.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Yeah, we tell people like to start at the top.
If you're trying to build a football model, the most
important position pretty basic, Go to the quarterback, and then
I think not enough people realize the next position on.
You know, fans think of the running backs, the wide receivers,
those type of positions, right, chare And we always talk
about it's all about the DEAL line, the O line.
So for me, if you want to go D line
(10:05):
over O line, no problem. I know plenty of people
who value that higher than they do O line. I
do put O line above D line and then you
can build out from there. So yeah, for me, it
really is all about the quarterback, the O lines D lines,
and then you know, I know plenty of people that
factor in the coaching and you know, the biggest adjustment
(10:25):
this year, I mean, I know that's part of this
question coming up. What's the you know, adjustments I'm making
through the model. It's going to be. We talked about
the fourth down success rate, Like I can't overlook how
important that was this past season, how much that changed football,
Like we just we've never seen it go up like
it did this past season. That's something I really do
need a factor in my model. You know, teams being
(10:45):
more risk averse and that's that is a big deal.
And we talk about like we did this past year,
about the favorites compared to the dogs, Right, the better quarterbacks,
even if they're on that not that much better of
a team. If the quarterback is such an important position
that if they teams have the trust to go from
their fourth downs rather than a team that you know,
like the Saints and Derek Carr, which means you had
to have zero faith on fourth down that it's going
(11:07):
to be a completion. It is a big difference when
youre talking about betting, Like I'm more I'm more able
to put money on it's a quarterback of a favorite
that I believe in rather than a dog at this
point with a quarterback I don't believe in, because these
fourth down tendencies are just it's just different in the
NFL than it was just say, four years ago. Like
this is really a new age type of thing we're
dealing with here. So that's definitely something this offseason I'm
(11:30):
going to dive way more into. Is the fourth down
success rate?
Speaker 1 (11:33):
When you say quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, do you
do anything with overall offensive power ratings, defensive power ratings?
Like to me, I would start top down offensive power rating,
defensive power rating, and then like incorporate quarterback and then
offensive line. But I feel like those two sides plus
(11:57):
quarterback would end up being like eighty five percent of
what I was looking at.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
You could I use what I use grading for, especially
like Pro Football Focus is like going to their grades
about different players where I'm not keen in on right,
Like there's a couple of guys that come in to
the league and you're not really sure about and you're
not paying attention to those teams, and they kind of
pop on film. Film doesn't really all explain if a
player is good or not. And that's really like you're
talking about individual stats and numbers. Definitely that's something I
(12:23):
dive into. But if you're trying to incorporate all that
into your model, you can do that, but that is
a ton of work, and you know them might muddy
the waters a little bit because it could make you
over adjust the different things. Like you know, we joked
about a Cooper de Gene join the Eagles. You look
at how he ended the year. He ended out of
the year is like a top five cornerback Nickel, Like,
(12:44):
that's that's the type of thing where you do need
to be ahead of and adjust that in your model.
The fact that he isn't proven a defense that much.
So I agree with you. There are there are individual
stats to dive into. But yeah, for what I do now,
it's it's kind of a median, right. I use them
and a bunch of other different websites to try get
one media number on each player grade rather than individual
each player grade.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
Right, But what I'm saying, is overall offensive power raiding
overall defensive.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
You're saying, you know that's v though we talk about
that all the time. That's that's DVA, Like do you
want to do that?
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Yeah, why do you hate DVOA.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
I don't. I just think it's like it's just the
boying lazy man tool in a lot of ways. Right,
Like the Lions played the the Washington the playoffs, DVOA,
they had a way better grade because they were better
all season. If they even if they adjust by the
season goes along, you know, dv O was gonna favorite
big time the Lions team against that Washington team, where
(13:42):
when you really break it down, their DVO is much
closer because that Washington kept on improving throughout the season
towards heading to the playoffs. Or on the flip side,
the Lions were just dying, like they were just slowly
dying and there was nothing they could really do. So
I do love DVA, but I explained to you, I
just think it's a tool where some people just simp
use that as their metric for every bet they make
on just I think that's way too risky and too
(14:04):
basic to use like that.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
No, I don't think you can do that. I've actually
you and I've talked about this from about the past month,
been thinking really hard about modeling and what the inputs
should be. And everyone I talked to they don't use
DVA exclusively, but they do use some form of offensive
(14:31):
power rating, defensive power rating, quarterback rating. Offensive line comes
up less, defensive line comes up less. And then like
success metrics, you know, because and that's a new advanced
analytic for the NFL that does measure sort of how
well you perform in those ten yard increments, right, And
(14:51):
so to me, that's a really interesting metric to start
to think about if you are looking for new keys
too analyzing teams, because it tends to indicate how well
a team is performing in the most basic of expectations,
which is getting a first down.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
Yeah, but like those numbers two you're diving into there,
that's that's also people looking for matchups that can take
advantage of. Right. So yeah, that makes total sense in
my view.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
I like when you agree with me makes me happy.
As I get older, Simon just makes me feel like
I'm getting smarter, But so are you, because you're thinking
on my level now. As an old person looking back
at last season. The first the worst futures bet you
made for me? It's easy, Like I saw this question
(15:49):
and I didn't have to think hard at all. I
bet on the Vikings to have the worst record in
the NFL because I had so little faith in Sam Donald.
I thought the team needed to restock. I was not
a fan of the signing of Andrew van Ginkel and
(16:10):
getting rid of Daniel Hunter, so I just thought, this
is a team that is going to start over. Little
did I know Kevin O'Connell really was the genius that
I thought he was, and Sam Donald was gonna have
a brilliant year. So for me, that's the one.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
Yeah, I'll join you on that one. That was definitely
our worst take, but it's also it's why we love football, right.
They were basically every one of those games were play
away pretty much from being you know, four and thirteen,
Like they had a ton of really good luck in
one square games and Sam Donald played it insane level
that there is no one in the world that can
say they knew that Sam Donald was gonna play at
(16:49):
that level for that whole season. So they're going to
be coming up a lot here. If we're talking about
worst things we did this past season, because it took
me a minute to believe in this Vikings team, like
I was fighting them, Like we talked about we were
heavy on them being the worst team. Like my three
worst teams were them, Tennessee and New England nailed the
other two got absolutely slaughtered obviously on the Vikings. But
(17:09):
we talk all the time. It's tough to know how
these quarterbacks can perform in new situations and new teams.
And Sam Darnold, you know, totally totally played out of
this world, just like we've seen Baker playing in Tampa. Like,
these guys get to these new teams, if they have
the right coach and the right talent around them, it's
pretty incredible what they can do. But yeah, the Vikings
(17:30):
clearly don't believe in the long term. They'll let him walk.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
What's interesting about the Bucks and Baker that has been
really impressive. That bodes well I think for him back
to back years now with a new offensive coordinator. Yeah,
and did great both years from Canalis to Liam Khne
and now he's going to have to do it again.
I would be less worried about it if I were
a Bucks fan, then I might have previously been because
(17:56):
he's proven what he's good at. They's got moxie get
behind and all of a sudden, I think that's a
lot to build on versus a right, here's another journeyman
QB that we're not really sold on. I think that's
gonna be the problem with Donald is you're gonna have
to see if people really start to rally around him
as he decided, if he ends up going somewhere else,
(18:17):
and if he can repeat the success the way Baker
has done it. Simon which individual game bet to you
look back on and hate the most. I have a
list of so many, and I've been trying to figure
out which one I hate the most. You tell me
what yours is.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
Mine's mind's easy. It's Week two. I'm almost positive was
week too. It was forty nine ers first the Vikings,
and it was like definitely one of these moments where
like everyone thinks the shit don't stink, and I had
a moment there where I was like, I thought I
was smarter than a lot of guys who I respect
in this business. They basically told me all week to
(19:00):
bet my house on the Vikings first to forty nine ers.
I think the Vikings opened as a plus six dog
or plus six and a half and it got down
to four and a half four by kickoff and whatever
happened that someday Morening, Not only did I load up
on the four nineers, I made you put them in
the competition. Well, we both knew. I said it too,
this is going to lose, but I need to bet
(19:21):
it anyway. Like I have no idea what I was
going through at that time period, my head wasn't just
spinning because normally nine out of ten times I would
have been on the Vikings in that spot ultimate trap spot,
undervalue team as a dog at home. And yeah, my
hate for the Vikings was just too strong. Again, we
all make mistakes, especially as a professional, but that was
(19:42):
when I was just like, fuck, that was such an
amateur bet, so that that definitely haunted me this past season.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
I am going to go to first week of October,
October sixth, Joe Burrow and the Bengals against the Baltimore
raven Yeah, Bengals are two and a half point dogs.
We still believe in the Bengals at this point. The
Ravens defense has been playing terribly. They're letting teams back
(20:10):
in it NonStop in the first half of the year.
We're thinking, Bengals outright is the play? So two and
a half is value.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
I swear you were gonna go Bears. Bears commanders here,
but that was such a Chad moment.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
That was That was God, that was pretty bad too.
I forgot about it, you know what I want.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
I'm sorry you blocked it. I should never even brought
it up.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
You just I totally forgot about it. Because the Bears
game that was on my list was when we had
the Lions minus nine and a half and they were
they should have been up there in the first half
and the Bears covered. It was Cincinnati two and a half,
because that was a game that also to me, like
the Bears. Whatever. The Bears, you know, they weren't a
(20:53):
team that we believed in. They were a team that
that if anything good happened, we were excited. That was
a bad beat, but this was a beat that felt
indicative of the season.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Okay for us, where.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
We're winning, we're winning, we're winning. Joe Burrow, who has
the best year he's ever had, maybe has the worst
play he makes the entire season, and we end up
losing the bet on a field goal by a kicker
who was having his worst season and happened to make
his best kick in that game. So it wasn't like
(21:28):
it wasn't like, oh, things weren't going our way. It's
like the extremes didn't go our way. No, and that
game was indicative of everything that went wrong for our season.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
They're brutal.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
You remember you know the game I'm talking about.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Oh yeah, I remember Moll Brother. I don't remember the wins.
I remember all the losses.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
Well, that's what makes this next question so hard. Like
when I saw this question, I made a bunch of
notes in the script and I had I had seven
or eight answers for this one, including any Tennessee boy
to bet at any point in the season, and any
Carolina bet in the first half of the season, and
basically any Jets bet all season, right because because they
(22:14):
were fucking us all year, the ones I liked. I
basically had three games a bet that I look back
on and it still makes me happy. I pinpointed Miami
minus five and a half at the Jets in early December,
where because jeff Elbrick is such a bad head coach,
(22:37):
and made such terrible decisions when it came to fourth
downs and managing the clock. Even when Miami had no
business covering a six point spread, they did it in
overtime against the Jets and it never felt like we
were out of it. And then Carolina covering again, covering
(22:57):
a six point spread against Tampa first week of to
say also was a big one for me.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
Yeah, I would just say regular season, that's that's a
big one for me. The Panthers over the Bucks just
because we love them, We hammered them. We kept saying
that was a great spot to take them. The Bucks
were going one way, the Panthers were going another way,
and yeah, that one was going for for the full season,
I would say I'd have to go to the playoffs. That
(23:25):
That Washington over the Lions game was just epic. It's
why I love the show like it was one of
the rare times we really loved the dog. We talked
about them a NonStop, even game out the money line,
and it's the best because you hear a ton of
noise those types of weeks, right because there's only four
games going on, Especially Lions fans, right, they have every
right to be really passionate about their team and them
(23:48):
and there the line fans and the backers of that
team were just NonStop that whole week. Like anytime I'd
say anything on social media, even if I didn't say shit,
I was getting messages constantly how big of a fucking
idiot I am. And just to see the fact that
they rolled like they did in Washington, the fact that
Jane Daniels played a perfect game. Their defense had the
three picks, the pick six, our four interceptions, three off golf,
(24:11):
but all of the just lined up and it was
just you know, obviously the Eagles fan, Eagle games as
a fan, those are the most fun games to watch.
Is just astray better. That Washington game was so much
fun to watch because of the build up to it
and the fact that it just kept going their way
throughout the game. Right, It was a nice slow burn
of just dominating that Detroit team because it was I mean,
(24:31):
people forget it was back and forth that Troy was
running for like two hundred yards. They could do whatever
they want, and then all of a sudden that pick
six happened and it just flipped that entire game. So yeah,
that was a really fun memory that Washington Lions game.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
Here's another question, Simon. So many of our listeners are
pondering but are afraid to ask. Luckily, using my incredible
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(25:08):
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That's Tommy john dot com slash favorites. This is going
to be the eighth NFL season since passed about The
Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act was repealed in May of
(26:14):
twenty eighteen. What are some of the biggest changes you've seen,
Simon in NFL betting markets? What are some of the
biggest differences between years prior to legalization and today. That
could be teaser pricing, market choices, sharper lines, availability to information, scrutiny,
you name it.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
Oh, it's tough, brother, because I hate being negative more
of the offseason. But people that bitch and moan about
the good old days, they're kind of right. In the systems.
Everything is just worse. Everything is just absolutely worse in
this field. But it's always darkest before the dawn, my friend,
and things will get turned around the future. I just
think we're in a weird, very weird time period right
(26:55):
now when it comes to sports betting values. I mean
some book legit give out I mean, Chad knows they
give out a minus one twenty on a side and
a minus one twenty on the other side. I can't
believe that's legal in this country, that these books can
do that type of stuff. So it's there's a lot,
there's there's so much I could go, well, get down.
It's been an episode on a whole episode on that
(27:16):
type of question. But my biggest one I always preach
to people is have multiple books. I hope, I hope
you're in a state where you have multiple books. We
can price and shop around because I mean, every dime
does matter, every every cent they take from you on
the line does matter, and that adds up if you
want to be a long term successful better it's a
(27:37):
big deal. But to me, the good thing in this
industry is that someone like me personally, I've got to
know people at different sports books, work with guys, and
there are good guys out there running books that will
take bets and you can work with them and they'll
reach out to you and try to help bounce their
books out. But a couple of the books that are
just too big to fail, that can do whatever the
(27:57):
hell they want. It's it's just a different, totally different world.
So yeah, as the public, my best advice would be
multiple books. It's the key to everything here is just
shop around, find the best number in the best line.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
It's so interesting you say, you know, every every dime
matters if you want to be a long term successful
better I don't know if people do want to be that.
You know, when we started Action and I when I
saw this question, the immediate answer to me was same
(28:31):
game parlays. And I don't mean that as a negative
or a positive. The question was what is the biggest difference. Obviously,
same game parlays were not a thing before we launched
Action and before the repeal of PASPA, they just didn't exist, right,
And so when we launched Action, we thought everyone want
(28:54):
to everyone would want to bet the way we do,
which is you don't care about the team that's playing.
You're searching for the biggest edge at the best price
on sides totals. That's really where that's the markets that
were most dominantly available, and that's how we approached it,
(29:15):
That's how operators were approaching it. And so remember this,
we wanted best bet, no matter the team, at best
price with the biggest edge. Parlays have become so popular.
Same game parlays have become so popular. And while there
(29:35):
are certainly edges and we do our best to identify
the edges and the opportunities and the value and all
these things. Those still aren't the bets that you make
that are the most ROI positive, the most positive ev
And so it turns out people kind of just want
the worst bets on their favorite team that's going to
(29:57):
make in the most money in the shortest amount of time.
And so to me, that's kind of the biggest difference
is the advent of these parlay markets.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
Yeah, and I've obviously tons of people I grew up with,
friends I've known a long time that's I could tell
them exactly the answers to the test, but they're going
to want to do their own take their own tests, right,
They don't. They don't want to bet the smart starup
sides like you talked about. Well, they might throw my
bet into the parlay, but what you just talked about
so true. Chat, I don't argue against it because you're right.
(30:31):
Most people watching, you know, they don't care. That's why
I love our show. It's unique where we're doing pick contests.
That's why most people listen to us as we're trying
to help them with their pick contests and give their
view of a different perspective on a pick contest where
you know, most betters these days, especially guys I know,
if they have one hundred dollars to bet that Sunday,
they want to do ten different five team t parlays
(30:52):
or whatever with ten dollars on each one, and they're
hoping to hit just one of them to get their
money back, or maybe make twenty bucks on top or
something like that. I get that's a lot of the
people now, and you know, Chad knows we have the
numbers that back it up. But I still think there
are a lot of guys that they like to see
the other side even how the pros do do it.
So I do think there is a market for what
(31:13):
we do, which is, you know, pick games straight up,
which is we talk all the time. It's hard as shit.
You want to go and make easy money, go bet
player props, right, That's that's an easy market. That's a
small market. And you know, if you don't need to
get big money down you can bet player markets. But
if you want to make real money long term, like
Chad just talked about, you got to bet it straight.
(31:34):
It's the only way. These guys online posting their five
team parlays making a million dollars every week. Only suckers
fall for that. Anyone that's in this long enough knows
that that's not long term winning. These guys are betting
both sides. They're messing with you. It's not real. It's
fake tickets. So yeah, it's tough out there, Like people
want me to call people out all the time, and
(31:54):
it's just like it's a waste. People need to learn.
Like all everyone's going through, everyone's been a sucker online
At some point the paint picks to someone that's a
fraud or thinking this guy who's winning these parlays all
week is going to keep hitting them for the rest
of the year, where it's like, no, that was the
one week this year it's going to hit So Chad's right.
It's a weird way the league that the sports betting
(32:15):
world has gone. But I saw it coming a mile away.
It's everyone used sports but as a get rich quick scheme,
and it's just that's the biggest lie they're being sold.
It's just simply is not.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
Well. I never saw it coming. I'll be honest. I
feel like I've been pretty pruscient about this business and
where it was going, and I thought, like I thought
player props would become much much bigger, and they have
and I'm a fan of them, and I think that
(32:47):
that the transition from fantasy to daily fantasy and the
ability to project player performance has been wondrous and fascinating
to watch. I did not see sort of the parlay
market becoming the lottery ticket that it has become. It's
fascinating to see it, and you know, we covered as
(33:10):
best we can. But to me, that's the biggest difference
in sort of pre PASPA and post PASPA is you know,
you're less I am. You're more cynical than I am.
So I didn't think people would want to get rich
quick in sports betting because it seems impossible to do it.
I figured people want to just be good at this
(33:30):
because they're enjoying it for watching the sports, and they
want to make a little bit of money and feel
connected and be the smartest person in the room, all
the things that interest me in it. So, yeah, the
sgps were a surprise for sure. Can change can happen
quickly in the NFL as of today, Simon, what NFL
(33:51):
team would you least like to be a fan of?
Because their status, their future, their hopes feels least, it
feels most hopeless.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
I mean, it's it's hard because that's why we love football, right,
is that your team can be changed on one draft. Right.
We saw that with Washington. I mean heuse all that
with Houston as well. Like you get the quarterback in there,
a couple of our pieces fall into place. You can
change your organization, and that's what so special about football.
But some some organizations can just cannot get it right.
It does not matter what they do. Even if they
(34:29):
get the guy, they let the guy either a coach
or whoever, they let them out of the building. So
for me, the team, I don't know what the hell
they're going to do going forward. It's the Saints. I
really don't know what the Saints are going to do
and what their game plan is. You know, maybe they
found their head coach. Maybe they found their guy and
(34:49):
he can you know, show some things this year and
then next year maybe they get their quarterback or whatever.
It's just when I really dive into their numbers and
their team and how bad they've done in drafts, money management,
all it, I just I feel like it's about to
be ten fifteen twenty years of just the dark ages
right now for the Saints, so they're definitely my number one.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
I had him on my list. They were the first
team I thought of as well, and then I added
on my list Brown's, Titans and Raiders Saints for all
the reasons you mentioned, I think that the cupboard is
kind of bear. They've got huge cap management issues, they
have not historically drafted that well Brown's, They've got the
(35:30):
d Shawn albatross. They've got ownership that I just don't
think is very good. All that savvy reputationally not known
as the sharpest knives in the drawer in the NFL community.
Now their best player in a generation in Miles Garrett
wants out because he sees how bad things are. They
(35:50):
have no real hope at quarterback right now unless they
can get you know, turn cam Ward into something brilliant.
But the Raids on him are not can't miss prospect.
The Titans because I think there's a lot of the issues,
like they're drafting number one at a time where there
isn't a can't miss prospect in a position that can
really change the game. And the Raiders not great ownership.
(36:14):
Totally bear cupboard just complete utter mismanagement from every level
over the past ten years. I would not want to
be a fan of that team. All fair want to
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(37:46):
favorites simon last two questions. We cannot leave the show
as members of football covering media without asking this question.
Is Aaron Rodgers relevant as a player?
Speaker 2 (38:05):
If I'm a terrible team that has no option to quarterback?
I want to see a guy for a year, I'd
bring him in. Why not? He did get better as
the season went along. I know that's not saying much
to a lot of people, but it's such an ugly
gross position chat when we've seen it. I mean, there's
just some teams that just have nothing at the position.
So yeah, would I rather than him than you know,
(38:25):
the thirtieth or you know Marcus Mariotea who I love
Marcus mariotte as a backup, but you don't want him
as I want of the thirty started thirty two starting quarterbacks.
So yeah, I think Rogers still has a place in
this league. Sure, but it's just hard because we're so
used to him being great, and you know a lot
of people don't like him because it was all field
antics and what he says off field, but just strictly
(38:46):
on field, I guess I'd still take them, like, if
you have nothing at the position, I'd give him a
job just because he does have. These moments are brilliance
and he does not a command at offense. But yeah,
it's it's just sad times. I mean, you know, this
might be it for him this year as a starter
of this league.
Speaker 1 (39:06):
I think he's irrelevant as a player. I think if
you don't have an offensive line that is perfect with
him as your quarterback, you're destined to be disappointed. I
think if you don't have uber talented receivers who can
read his mind, you're destined to be disappointed. I think
(39:27):
he will come in and change the chemistry of your
franchise in a way that you can't expect or understand
until he's in the building. I think the only reason
he's relevant is because people still like to talk to
him and talk about him, because he's always going to
give an interesting answer. He's always going to give an
(39:49):
answer where he is kind of smirking, kind of thinking
he's the smartest guy in the room, kind of think
he's getting one over on you. And for those reasons, alone,
you're going to want to talk about the guy. Are
those football reasons? No, but he's still going to be
a guy that has relevance because Aaron Rodgers at the
tail end of his career and things haven't been going
(40:09):
well and the expectations are always so high. So yeah,
he's relevant. Unfortunately. Last question, last question. We started the
show talking about inputs for models, offensive line, defensive line, quarterback.
What is your least relevant position.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
In football? Sheesh man, they're all tough.
Speaker 1 (40:40):
I thought about this a lot. I had two answers.
Speaker 2 (40:42):
Yeah, I would say, I guess, I guess it is
because it's kind of going extinct. Would be the fullback.
Speaker 1 (40:53):
That was my answer.
Speaker 2 (40:55):
That's a good one. I would say fullback's a good one.
I'm trying to think. It's like like I like to
make fun of kickers and punters, but they're they're crazy important,
Like they're crazy important to the team. If I had
to put one down, though, I would say, you could
win a game of all the positions. Have the worst
player in the entire field. You could win a game
(41:17):
if your slot corner, I guess it's just absolutely terrible.
Like if there's one position you could get away on
the field because everyone else, like, if you're a linebackers awful.
If there's a guy in the line that's just the
worst player on the team, safety, cornerback, Yeah, I think
I think Nichol is the only place you get away
with having just an absolute horror because maybe you can
just double that guy and you know, yeah, that's really tough. Though,
(41:39):
that's tough. Worst the least important position on the field,
it's really tough.
Speaker 1 (41:42):
Well, I think the least important position has to be
the position that is basically no longer in existence. How
many full backs can you name? Right, there's like three
full backs and uh two of them one of them
plays for the Ravens and one in place for the
Chargers and one in place for the Chiefs. And the
fullbacks for the Ravens and the Chargers end up just
(42:03):
being guys that the hardballs like to play both ways.
And so I think that's got to be the least
relevant because they don't even have to be on the field.
Their impact is so minimal. I thought punter kicker for
less than half a second, because anybody knows kickers, forget
about how important they are. Punters. You have two bed
(42:24):
punts in a game. It could fuck you. It could
change the entire tenor of the game.
Speaker 2 (42:30):
Yeah, brutal.
Speaker 1 (42:33):
We're going to do another mail bag. I didn't get
to all the questions today. We are going to do
another mail bag because they come flying in so we
want to get to as many as we can. As
a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
sixty five and now new Bet three six five. Customers
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when
you bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites,
(42:53):
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get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
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(43:15):
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Iowa Terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Don't forget sign up for
the Favorites Live event you got RSVP. Joe's on Weed
in Chicago, March twenty ninth, Elite eight Saturday. I'm going
to be there, Simon's going to be their, Stucky's going
to be there. Jim Root from Three Men, We even
(43:35):
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We'll do an exclusive show talking about the games that day,
plus some hangouts. Those are great events. Joe's on Weed
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Simon and I will return with our next episode of
The Favorites on the Action of Work You two page Thursday,
eleven am Eastern with special guest Field Yates talking NFL.
(44:00):
Download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
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(44:21):
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Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from
our Tommy Jones home studios. I'm joined as always by
my co host, my companion, Mike Padre, my BFF professional
better Assignmon Hunter ed.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Oh, so I am mad Chad. How is your birthday week? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Oh my god, dude, I got so lucky. I do
a trip every year with friends, all my high school
buddies and their wives. There's about twenty five people that go.
We've been going for seven or eight years. It's the
highlight of my year. It is a phenomenal weekend, no kids.
It is constant ball busting laughing. It is truly a
(00:57):
gift of a trip. And my birthday happened to be
the weekend of this trip this year, so it was
just it was a weekend of love and laughter, a
day of love and laughter turning old and it was fantastic.
Simon just great.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Well, so other us were working watching the combine, So
I'm happy you had a good time. I was literally
bored out of my mind. I always forget how much
I love and hate the combine. It's cool at moments.
Other moments are just like what am I doing in
my life? Why am I even watching this? Am I
gaining anything from this? So yeah, another weekend of NFL
Combine gone, and yeah, already onto the next season. Brother,
it feels like that's the kickoff party. So into twenty
(01:36):
twenty five week go.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
I did get a nice text from you, which I loved.
So kind of you to think of me on my birthday.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
Well, I was gonna call, but God bless women. Dude.
I was out at dinner with a girl and the
luckily I was with her the day before and told
her I had texted you to make sure throughout the dinner.
She goes, you call your buddy, Chad. I go, holy shit,
I almost reach out to them before the birthday. Did
hit him on the birthday, So thank god for women.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
I'm a big fan of a preemptive birthday text, like
if I remember, if I remember the day before, I'm like,
oh shit, it's their birthday tomorrow. I'll send it the
day before me like this counts is your birthday text?
I'm not sure it's going to enter the banks tomorrow.
Speaking of NFL, signmon. Today is our first off season
mailback episode. We're going to answer questions submitted from listeners.
(02:22):
As you would expect, so many of these questions are
NFL related. So I'm glad you're thinking about it. I'm
thinking about it. We've both put in futures bets into
the app. I've already put in I think the Niners,
and I put in the Packers. You've put in the Rams.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
I did put it. The Rams in got it.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Rams didn't come up when we had our last conversation
for what they did.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
I like the Rams, I said, I just didn't bet
them because the unknown of Stafford. Once I knew what
was gonna happen with Stafford was going to do it.
And yeah, I mean, we can get into it, but
it was definitely a weekend of rumors, I'll tell you
that much. Chad like the hold Stafford to the Raiders. Yeah,
I almost got caught in that one because I thought
that was like, legit gonna happen. He was basically like
a done deal kind of thing. And then the last
(03:09):
minute the Rams came back and we're just like, you know,
we'll pay you. So, yeah, Glad, I did not put
the Raiders into the Action app because that's looking like
a Sam Darnold kind of bet. So yeah, glad I
avoided the Raiders Super Bowl Futures bet.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
Well, look, if you had put in the Raiders, it
could have been in our mail bag. Twenty twenty six.
Is your worst futures bet of twenty twenty nives out,
which is one of the questions that we have today
as a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by
Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty
five customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus
bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo
(03:42):
code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five
dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. Bet three
sixty five must be twenty one or older and present
in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
(04:04):
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Okay, before we get into
the questions, don't forget. You can officially RSVP for our free, free,
free favorites live show event in the greatest city in
the world, Chicago, Illinois. This will be for the Elite
(04:27):
eight March Madness Games on Saturday, March twenty ninth the
Joe's Bar on Weed Street also known more popularly known
as Joe's on Weed in Chicago. Free event, free drinks,
free live show. You must RSVP to reserve your spot.
Follow the link in this episode's description. What are we
doing there? We'll do an exclusive pregame Elite eight betting
(04:51):
show before tip with Stucky Action Network OG Stucky Jim
Root both of them at our Big Bets on Campus podcast.
Jim Rude, of course, one of the three man Weave
members one of the best college basketball analytics groups in
the country. We're going to break down the games from
(05:12):
a betting perspective. We'll do some trivia giveaways. We should
we should have another truckload of merch on hand if
those who were in Philly can recall it. Was basically
a moment in which Matt Mitchell created questions for people
to bash me and then get free hoodies. So that
(05:32):
sounds like it's going to be a good time. Some
folks might have asked why Chicago. One of the biggest
reasons It's Bet three sixty five is launching in the
state of Illinois in the weeks ahead. Very exciting development
for the fine folks of Illinois, my statehood brethren. All Right, Simon,
first question, the day before our Chicago live show. Friend
(05:54):
of the podcast, Chris Long turns forty. Man's getting old.
We love Chris. He retired after a stellar career as
a defensive end, a fantastic career, multiple Super Bowls. He's
hosted the green Light podcast for many years now. Most importantly,
Chris Long was and remains a physical beast. So the
(06:15):
question is, if we froze my current physical condition in place,
what age would Chris Long have to be for me
in Chad Milman twenty twenty five years to confidently defeat
him in a fight. What do you think? The answer is,
I mean.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
I think you're scrappy, Chad. I think you're a little
scrapp for the people perceive so I guess, just because
of the genetic freak, I guess at some point in
his eighties, right, like his hips, his knees, something's gonna
go on that guy. He's pushed his body to the limit.
Chad here not so much. So I feel like you
have an advantage there. So I guess, Yeah, I guess
(06:55):
Chris Long eighty five, Chad could easily take him down.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
All right, So I thought a lot about this. And
you know, I exercise a lot. I'm on the rowing machine,
I'm on the peloton, I do light weightlifting. You know,
I'm about bone density, I'm about flexibility, I'm about stability,
I'm about eating right, I'm about BO two max, all
those things. I'm looking for health span, Okay, not lifespan,
(07:20):
health span. And I believe I am in better physical
condition today than I've been in my entire life. So
if I was able to freeze this in place. My
diet consists of nuts, legomes, beans, occasional chicken, lots of salmon, vegetables,
(07:43):
very little sugar, very little processed food. I am a
specimen right now, Simon. I like I have tensile strength,
tensile strength. I'm doing the weighted step ups, and you
got a dumbbell in both hands. I'm stepping up. I
did it at the gym when we were in Palm Springs.
I went twice in the three days we were there.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
I think any of this is going to help you
in a fight in any way.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
My point, it's a good time for me to freeze
myself in place. The age for Chris long for me.
You said eighty five. I wrote down eighty three, and
my thoughts were, by then, maybe he'll have let himself go.
Like clearly he's physical marvel, naturally gifted, naturally athletic, naturally strong,
(08:29):
and then he did all the work with criored on
top of that, which he maintains. He's taller, he's stronger.
But I think by eighty three, maybe he's let himself go.
I think some of the achiness from football, like he
might not be able to move around. I'll be able to,
you know, maneuver, scurry, deflect. So I had it at
(08:50):
eighty three, Oh.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Said, that's the only way you could beat him, because
if he got his hands on you, it would even
at that age, old man's strength. Like I was gonna say,
I've seen like you were talking about you beat in
great shape. I've seen guys in peak physical fitness get
dropped by senior citizens because it's all about technique and fighting,
and Chris had the ultimate cheek code. He has a
house full of freak brothers who I'm sure they fought
(09:14):
a ton growing up. So yeah, we would both need
Chris to be incredibly old to be able to take
him down.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
You're right, the brother factor and sort of the muscle
memory of being in that position. It's not the same
for me, given that I had a sister who was
seven years younger than I am. At all, we get
a lot of questions about your model, namely, what are
the most important inputs, So let's start with that question.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Yeah, we tell people like to start at the top.
If you're trying to build a football model, the most
important position pretty basic, Go to the quarterback, and then
I think not enough people realize the next position on.
You know, fans think of the running backs, the wide receivers,
those type of positions, right, chare And we always talk
about it's all about the DEAL line, the O line.
So for me, if you want to go D line
(10:05):
over O line, no problem. I know plenty of people
who value that higher than they do O line. I
do put O line above D line and then you
can build out from there. So yeah, for me, it
really is all about the quarterback, the O lines D lines,
and then you know, I know plenty of people that
factor in the coaching and you know, the biggest adjustment
(10:25):
this year, I mean, I know that's part of this
question coming up. What's the you know, adjustments I'm making
through the model. It's going to be. We talked about
the fourth down success rate, Like I can't overlook how
important that was this past season, how much that changed football,
Like we just we've never seen it go up like
it did this past season. That's something I really do
need a factor in my model. You know, teams being
(10:45):
more risk averse and that's that is a big deal.
And we talk about like we did this past year,
about the favorites compared to the dogs, Right, the better quarterbacks,
even if they're on that not that much better of
a team. If the quarterback is such an important position
that if they teams have the trust to go from
their fourth downs rather than a team that you know,
like the Saints and Derek Carr, which means you had
to have zero faith on fourth down that it's going
(11:07):
to be a completion. It is a big difference when
youre talking about betting, Like I'm more I'm more able
to put money on it's a quarterback of a favorite
that I believe in rather than a dog at this
point with a quarterback I don't believe in, because these
fourth down tendencies are just it's just different in the
NFL than it was just say, four years ago. Like
this is really a new age type of thing we're
dealing with here. So that's definitely something this offseason I'm
(11:30):
going to dive way more into. Is the fourth down
success rate?
Speaker 1 (11:33):
When you say quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, do you
do anything with overall offensive power ratings, defensive power ratings?
Like to me, I would start top down offensive power rating,
defensive power rating, and then like incorporate quarterback and then
offensive line. But I feel like those two sides plus
(11:57):
quarterback would end up being like eighty five percent of
what I was looking at.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
You could I use what I use grading for, especially
like Pro Football Focus is like going to their grades
about different players where I'm not keen in on right,
Like there's a couple of guys that come in to
the league and you're not really sure about and you're
not paying attention to those teams, and they kind of
pop on film. Film doesn't really all explain if a
player is good or not. And that's really like you're
talking about individual stats and numbers. Definitely that's something I
(12:23):
dive into. But if you're trying to incorporate all that
into your model, you can do that, but that is
a ton of work, and you know them might muddy
the waters a little bit because it could make you
over adjust the different things. Like you know, we joked
about a Cooper de Gene join the Eagles. You look
at how he ended the year. He ended out of
the year is like a top five cornerback Nickel, Like,
(12:44):
that's that's the type of thing where you do need
to be ahead of and adjust that in your model.
The fact that he isn't proven a defense that much.
So I agree with you. There are there are individual
stats to dive into. But yeah, for what I do now,
it's it's kind of a median, right. I use them
and a bunch of other different websites to try get
one media number on each player grade rather than individual
each player grade.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
Right, But what I'm saying, is overall offensive power raiding
overall defensive.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
You're saying, you know that's v though we talk about
that all the time. That's that's DVA, Like do you
want to do that?
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Yeah, why do you hate DVOA.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
I don't. I just think it's like it's just the
boying lazy man tool in a lot of ways. Right,
Like the Lions played the the Washington the playoffs, DVOA,
they had a way better grade because they were better
all season. If they even if they adjust by the
season goes along, you know, dv O was gonna favorite
big time the Lions team against that Washington team, where
(13:42):
when you really break it down, their DVO is much
closer because that Washington kept on improving throughout the season
towards heading to the playoffs. Or on the flip side,
the Lions were just dying, like they were just slowly
dying and there was nothing they could really do. So
I do love DVA, but I explained to you, I
just think it's a tool where some people just simp
use that as their metric for every bet they make
on just I think that's way too risky and too
(14:04):
basic to use like that.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
No, I don't think you can do that. I've actually
you and I've talked about this from about the past month,
been thinking really hard about modeling and what the inputs
should be. And everyone I talked to they don't use
DVA exclusively, but they do use some form of offensive
(14:31):
power rating, defensive power rating, quarterback rating. Offensive line comes
up less, defensive line comes up less. And then like
success metrics, you know, because and that's a new advanced
analytic for the NFL that does measure sort of how
well you perform in those ten yard increments, right, And
(14:51):
so to me, that's a really interesting metric to start
to think about if you are looking for new keys
too analyzing teams, because it tends to indicate how well
a team is performing in the most basic of expectations,
which is getting a first down.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
Yeah, but like those numbers two you're diving into there,
that's that's also people looking for matchups that can take
advantage of. Right. So yeah, that makes total sense in
my view.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
I like when you agree with me makes me happy.
As I get older, Simon just makes me feel like
I'm getting smarter, But so are you, because you're thinking
on my level now. As an old person looking back
at last season. The first the worst futures bet you
made for me? It's easy, Like I saw this question
(15:49):
and I didn't have to think hard at all. I
bet on the Vikings to have the worst record in
the NFL because I had so little faith in Sam Donald.
I thought the team needed to restock. I was not
a fan of the signing of Andrew van Ginkel and
(16:10):
getting rid of Daniel Hunter, so I just thought, this
is a team that is going to start over. Little
did I know Kevin O'Connell really was the genius that
I thought he was, and Sam Donald was gonna have
a brilliant year. So for me, that's the one.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
Yeah, I'll join you on that one. That was definitely
our worst take, but it's also it's why we love football, right.
They were basically every one of those games were play
away pretty much from being you know, four and thirteen,
Like they had a ton of really good luck in
one square games and Sam Donald played it insane level
that there is no one in the world that can
say they knew that Sam Donald was gonna play at
(16:49):
that level for that whole season. So they're going to
be coming up a lot here. If we're talking about
worst things we did this past season, because it took
me a minute to believe in this Vikings team, like
I was fighting them, Like we talked about we were
heavy on them being the worst team. Like my three
worst teams were them, Tennessee and New England nailed the
other two got absolutely slaughtered obviously on the Vikings. But
(17:09):
we talk all the time. It's tough to know how
these quarterbacks can perform in new situations and new teams.
And Sam Darnold, you know, totally totally played out of
this world, just like we've seen Baker playing in Tampa. Like,
these guys get to these new teams, if they have
the right coach and the right talent around them, it's
pretty incredible what they can do. But yeah, the Vikings
(17:30):
clearly don't believe in the long term. They'll let him walk.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
What's interesting about the Bucks and Baker that has been
really impressive. That bodes well I think for him back
to back years now with a new offensive coordinator. Yeah,
and did great both years from Canalis to Liam Khne
and now he's going to have to do it again.
I would be less worried about it if I were
a Bucks fan, then I might have previously been because
(17:56):
he's proven what he's good at. They's got moxie get
behind and all of a sudden, I think that's a
lot to build on versus a right, here's another journeyman
QB that we're not really sold on. I think that's
gonna be the problem with Donald is you're gonna have
to see if people really start to rally around him
as he decided, if he ends up going somewhere else,
(18:17):
and if he can repeat the success the way Baker
has done it. Simon which individual game bet to you
look back on and hate the most. I have a
list of so many, and I've been trying to figure
out which one I hate the most. You tell me
what yours is.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
Mine's mind's easy. It's Week two. I'm almost positive was
week too. It was forty nine ers first the Vikings,
and it was like definitely one of these moments where
like everyone thinks the shit don't stink, and I had
a moment there where I was like, I thought I
was smarter than a lot of guys who I respect
in this business. They basically told me all week to
(19:00):
bet my house on the Vikings first to forty nine ers.
I think the Vikings opened as a plus six dog
or plus six and a half and it got down
to four and a half four by kickoff and whatever
happened that someday Morening, Not only did I load up
on the four nineers, I made you put them in
the competition. Well, we both knew. I said it too,
this is going to lose, but I need to bet
(19:21):
it anyway. Like I have no idea what I was
going through at that time period, my head wasn't just
spinning because normally nine out of ten times I would
have been on the Vikings in that spot ultimate trap spot,
undervalue team as a dog at home. And yeah, my
hate for the Vikings was just too strong. Again, we
all make mistakes, especially as a professional, but that was
(19:42):
when I was just like, fuck, that was such an
amateur bet, so that that definitely haunted me this past season.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
I am going to go to first week of October,
October sixth, Joe Burrow and the Bengals against the Baltimore
raven Yeah, Bengals are two and a half point dogs.
We still believe in the Bengals at this point. The
Ravens defense has been playing terribly. They're letting teams back
(20:10):
in it NonStop in the first half of the year.
We're thinking, Bengals outright is the play? So two and
a half is value.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
I swear you were gonna go Bears. Bears commanders here,
but that was such a Chad moment.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
That was That was God, that was pretty bad too.
I forgot about it, you know what I want.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
I'm sorry you blocked it. I should never even brought
it up.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
You just I totally forgot about it. Because the Bears
game that was on my list was when we had
the Lions minus nine and a half and they were
they should have been up there in the first half
and the Bears covered. It was Cincinnati two and a half,
because that was a game that also to me, like
the Bears. Whatever. The Bears, you know, they weren't a
(20:53):
team that we believed in. They were a team that
that if anything good happened, we were excited. That was
a bad beat, but this was a beat that felt
indicative of the season.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Okay for us, where.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
We're winning, we're winning, we're winning. Joe Burrow, who has
the best year he's ever had, maybe has the worst
play he makes the entire season, and we end up
losing the bet on a field goal by a kicker
who was having his worst season and happened to make
his best kick in that game. So it wasn't like
(21:28):
it wasn't like, oh, things weren't going our way. It's
like the extremes didn't go our way. No, and that
game was indicative of everything that went wrong for our season.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
They're brutal.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
You remember you know the game I'm talking about.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Oh yeah, I remember Moll Brother. I don't remember the wins.
I remember all the losses.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
Well, that's what makes this next question so hard. Like
when I saw this question, I made a bunch of
notes in the script and I had I had seven
or eight answers for this one, including any Tennessee boy
to bet at any point in the season, and any
Carolina bet in the first half of the season, and
basically any Jets bet all season, right because because they
(22:14):
were fucking us all year, the ones I liked. I
basically had three games a bet that I look back
on and it still makes me happy. I pinpointed Miami
minus five and a half at the Jets in early December,
where because jeff Elbrick is such a bad head coach,
(22:37):
and made such terrible decisions when it came to fourth
downs and managing the clock. Even when Miami had no
business covering a six point spread, they did it in
overtime against the Jets and it never felt like we
were out of it. And then Carolina covering again, covering
(22:57):
a six point spread against Tampa first week of to
say also was a big one for me.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
Yeah, I would just say regular season, that's that's a
big one for me. The Panthers over the Bucks just
because we love them, We hammered them. We kept saying
that was a great spot to take them. The Bucks
were going one way, the Panthers were going another way,
and yeah, that one was going for for the full season,
I would say I'd have to go to the playoffs. That
(23:25):
That Washington over the Lions game was just epic. It's
why I love the show like it was one of
the rare times we really loved the dog. We talked
about them a NonStop, even game out the money line,
and it's the best because you hear a ton of
noise those types of weeks, right because there's only four
games going on, Especially Lions fans, right, they have every
right to be really passionate about their team and them
(23:48):
and there the line fans and the backers of that
team were just NonStop that whole week. Like anytime I'd
say anything on social media, even if I didn't say shit,
I was getting messages constantly how big of a fucking
idiot I am. And just to see the fact that
they rolled like they did in Washington, the fact that
Jane Daniels played a perfect game. Their defense had the
three picks, the pick six, our four interceptions, three off golf,
(24:11):
but all of the just lined up and it was
just you know, obviously the Eagles fan, Eagle games as
a fan, those are the most fun games to watch.
Is just astray better. That Washington game was so much
fun to watch because of the build up to it
and the fact that it just kept going their way
throughout the game. Right, It was a nice slow burn
of just dominating that Detroit team because it was I mean,
(24:31):
people forget it was back and forth that Troy was
running for like two hundred yards. They could do whatever
they want, and then all of a sudden that pick
six happened and it just flipped that entire game. So yeah,
that was a really fun memory that Washington Lions game.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
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That's Tommy john dot com slash favorites. This is going
to be the eighth NFL season since passed about The
Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act was repealed in May of
(26:14):
twenty eighteen. What are some of the biggest changes you've seen,
Simon in NFL betting markets? What are some of the
biggest differences between years prior to legalization and today. That
could be teaser pricing, market choices, sharper lines, availability to information, scrutiny,
you name it.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
Oh, it's tough, brother, because I hate being negative more
of the offseason. But people that bitch and moan about
the good old days, they're kind of right. In the systems.
Everything is just worse. Everything is just absolutely worse in
this field. But it's always darkest before the dawn, my friend,
and things will get turned around the future. I just
think we're in a weird, very weird time period right
(26:55):
now when it comes to sports betting values. I mean
some book legit give out I mean, Chad knows they
give out a minus one twenty on a side and
a minus one twenty on the other side. I can't
believe that's legal in this country, that these books can
do that type of stuff. So it's there's a lot,
there's there's so much I could go, well, get down.
It's been an episode on a whole episode on that
(27:16):
type of question. But my biggest one I always preach
to people is have multiple books. I hope, I hope
you're in a state where you have multiple books. We
can price and shop around because I mean, every dime
does matter, every every cent they take from you on
the line does matter, and that adds up if you
want to be a long term successful better it's a
(27:37):
big deal. But to me, the good thing in this
industry is that someone like me personally, I've got to
know people at different sports books, work with guys, and
there are good guys out there running books that will
take bets and you can work with them and they'll
reach out to you and try to help bounce their
books out. But a couple of the books that are
just too big to fail, that can do whatever the
(27:57):
hell they want. It's it's just a different, totally different world.
So yeah, as the public, my best advice would be
multiple books. It's the key to everything here is just
shop around, find the best number in the best line.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
It's so interesting you say, you know, every every dime
matters if you want to be a long term successful
better I don't know if people do want to be that.
You know, when we started Action and I when I
saw this question, the immediate answer to me was same
(28:31):
game parlays. And I don't mean that as a negative
or a positive. The question was what is the biggest difference. Obviously,
same game parlays were not a thing before we launched
Action and before the repeal of PASPA, they just didn't exist, right,
And so when we launched Action, we thought everyone want
(28:54):
to everyone would want to bet the way we do,
which is you don't care about the team that's playing.
You're searching for the biggest edge at the best price
on sides totals. That's really where that's the markets that
were most dominantly available, and that's how we approached it,
(29:15):
That's how operators were approaching it. And so remember this,
we wanted best bet, no matter the team, at best
price with the biggest edge. Parlays have become so popular.
Same game parlays have become so popular. And while there
(29:35):
are certainly edges and we do our best to identify
the edges and the opportunities and the value and all
these things. Those still aren't the bets that you make
that are the most ROI positive, the most positive ev
And so it turns out people kind of just want
the worst bets on their favorite team that's going to
(29:57):
make in the most money in the shortest amount of time.
And so to me, that's kind of the biggest difference
is the advent of these parlay markets.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
Yeah, and I've obviously tons of people I grew up with,
friends I've known a long time that's I could tell
them exactly the answers to the test, but they're going
to want to do their own take their own tests, right,
They don't. They don't want to bet the smart starup
sides like you talked about. Well, they might throw my
bet into the parlay, but what you just talked about
so true. Chat, I don't argue against it because you're right.
(30:31):
Most people watching, you know, they don't care. That's why
I love our show. It's unique where we're doing pick contests.
That's why most people listen to us as we're trying
to help them with their pick contests and give their
view of a different perspective on a pick contest where
you know, most betters these days, especially guys I know,
if they have one hundred dollars to bet that Sunday,
they want to do ten different five team t parlays
(30:52):
or whatever with ten dollars on each one, and they're
hoping to hit just one of them to get their
money back, or maybe make twenty bucks on top or
something like that. I get that's a lot of the
people now, and you know, Chad knows we have the
numbers that back it up. But I still think there
are a lot of guys that they like to see
the other side even how the pros do do it.
So I do think there is a market for what
(31:13):
we do, which is, you know, pick games straight up,
which is we talk all the time. It's hard as shit.
You want to go and make easy money, go bet
player props, right, That's that's an easy market. That's a
small market. And you know, if you don't need to
get big money down you can bet player markets. But
if you want to make real money long term, like
Chad just talked about, you got to bet it straight.
(31:34):
It's the only way. These guys online posting their five
team parlays making a million dollars every week. Only suckers
fall for that. Anyone that's in this long enough knows
that that's not long term winning. These guys are betting
both sides. They're messing with you. It's not real. It's
fake tickets. So yeah, it's tough out there, Like people
want me to call people out all the time, and
(31:54):
it's just like it's a waste. People need to learn.
Like all everyone's going through, everyone's been a sucker online
At some point the paint picks to someone that's a
fraud or thinking this guy who's winning these parlays all
week is going to keep hitting them for the rest
of the year, where it's like, no, that was the
one week this year it's going to hit So Chad's right.
It's a weird way the league that the sports betting
(32:15):
world has gone. But I saw it coming a mile away.
It's everyone used sports but as a get rich quick scheme,
and it's just that's the biggest lie they're being sold.
It's just simply is not.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
Well. I never saw it coming. I'll be honest. I
feel like I've been pretty pruscient about this business and
where it was going, and I thought, like I thought
player props would become much much bigger, and they have
and I'm a fan of them, and I think that
(32:47):
that the transition from fantasy to daily fantasy and the
ability to project player performance has been wondrous and fascinating
to watch. I did not see sort of the parlay
market becoming the lottery ticket that it has become. It's
fascinating to see it, and you know, we covered as
(33:10):
best we can. But to me, that's the biggest difference
in sort of pre PASPA and post PASPA is you know,
you're less I am. You're more cynical than I am.
So I didn't think people would want to get rich
quick in sports betting because it seems impossible to do it.
I figured people want to just be good at this
(33:30):
because they're enjoying it for watching the sports, and they
want to make a little bit of money and feel
connected and be the smartest person in the room, all
the things that interest me in it. So, yeah, the
sgps were a surprise for sure. Can change can happen
quickly in the NFL as of today, Simon, what NFL
(33:51):
team would you least like to be a fan of?
Because their status, their future, their hopes feels least, it
feels most hopeless.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
I mean, it's it's hard because that's why we love football, right,
is that your team can be changed on one draft. Right.
We saw that with Washington. I mean heuse all that
with Houston as well. Like you get the quarterback in there,
a couple of our pieces fall into place. You can
change your organization, and that's what so special about football.
But some some organizations can just cannot get it right.
It does not matter what they do. Even if they
(34:29):
get the guy, they let the guy either a coach
or whoever, they let them out of the building. So
for me, the team, I don't know what the hell
they're going to do going forward. It's the Saints. I
really don't know what the Saints are going to do
and what their game plan is. You know, maybe they
found their head coach. Maybe they found their guy and
(34:49):
he can you know, show some things this year and
then next year maybe they get their quarterback or whatever.
It's just when I really dive into their numbers and
their team and how bad they've done in drafts, money management,
all it, I just I feel like it's about to
be ten fifteen twenty years of just the dark ages
right now for the Saints, so they're definitely my number one.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
I had him on my list. They were the first
team I thought of as well, and then I added
on my list Brown's, Titans and Raiders Saints for all
the reasons you mentioned, I think that the cupboard is
kind of bear. They've got huge cap management issues, they
have not historically drafted that well Brown's, They've got the
(35:30):
d Shawn albatross. They've got ownership that I just don't
think is very good. All that savvy reputationally not known
as the sharpest knives in the drawer in the NFL community.
Now their best player in a generation in Miles Garrett
wants out because he sees how bad things are. They
(35:50):
have no real hope at quarterback right now unless they
can get you know, turn cam Ward into something brilliant.
But the Raids on him are not can't miss prospect.
The Titans because I think there's a lot of the issues,
like they're drafting number one at a time where there
isn't a can't miss prospect in a position that can
really change the game. And the Raiders not great ownership.
(36:14):
Totally bear cupboard just complete utter mismanagement from every level
over the past ten years. I would not want to
be a fan of that team. All fair want to
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(37:46):
favorites simon last two questions. We cannot leave the show
as members of football covering media without asking this question.
Is Aaron Rodgers relevant as a player?
Speaker 2 (38:05):
If I'm a terrible team that has no option to quarterback?
I want to see a guy for a year, I'd
bring him in. Why not? He did get better as
the season went along. I know that's not saying much
to a lot of people, but it's such an ugly
gross position chat when we've seen it. I mean, there's
just some teams that just have nothing at the position.
So yeah, would I rather than him than you know,
(38:25):
the thirtieth or you know Marcus Mariotea who I love
Marcus mariotte as a backup, but you don't want him
as I want of the thirty started thirty two starting quarterbacks.
So yeah, I think Rogers still has a place in
this league. Sure, but it's just hard because we're so
used to him being great, and you know a lot
of people don't like him because it was all field
antics and what he says off field, but just strictly
(38:46):
on field, I guess I'd still take them, like, if
you have nothing at the position, I'd give him a
job just because he does have. These moments are brilliance
and he does not a command at offense. But yeah,
it's it's just sad times. I mean, you know, this
might be it for him this year as a starter
of this league.
Speaker 1 (39:06):
I think he's irrelevant as a player. I think if
you don't have an offensive line that is perfect with
him as your quarterback, you're destined to be disappointed. I
think if you don't have uber talented receivers who can
read his mind, you're destined to be disappointed. I think
(39:27):
he will come in and change the chemistry of your
franchise in a way that you can't expect or understand
until he's in the building. I think the only reason
he's relevant is because people still like to talk to
him and talk about him, because he's always going to
give an interesting answer. He's always going to give an
(39:49):
answer where he is kind of smirking, kind of thinking
he's the smartest guy in the room, kind of think
he's getting one over on you. And for those reasons, alone,
you're going to want to talk about the guy. Are
those football reasons? No, but he's still going to be
a guy that has relevance because Aaron Rodgers at the
tail end of his career and things haven't been going
(40:09):
well and the expectations are always so high. So yeah,
he's relevant. Unfortunately. Last question, last question. We started the
show talking about inputs for models, offensive line, defensive line, quarterback.
What is your least relevant position.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
In football? Sheesh man, they're all tough.
Speaker 1 (40:40):
I thought about this a lot. I had two answers.
Speaker 2 (40:42):
Yeah, I would say, I guess, I guess it is
because it's kind of going extinct. Would be the fullback.
Speaker 1 (40:53):
That was my answer.
Speaker 2 (40:55):
That's a good one. I would say fullback's a good one.
I'm trying to think. It's like like I like to
make fun of kickers and punters, but they're they're crazy important,
Like they're crazy important to the team. If I had
to put one down, though, I would say, you could
win a game of all the positions. Have the worst
player in the entire field. You could win a game
(41:17):
if your slot corner, I guess it's just absolutely terrible.
Like if there's one position you could get away on
the field because everyone else, like, if you're a linebackers awful.
If there's a guy in the line that's just the
worst player on the team, safety, cornerback, Yeah, I think
I think Nichol is the only place you get away
with having just an absolute horror because maybe you can
just double that guy and you know, yeah, that's really tough. Though,
(41:39):
that's tough. Worst the least important position on the field,
it's really tough.
Speaker 1 (41:42):
Well, I think the least important position has to be
the position that is basically no longer in existence. How
many full backs can you name? Right, there's like three
full backs and uh two of them one of them
plays for the Ravens and one in place for the
Chargers and one in place for the Chiefs. And the
fullbacks for the Ravens and the Chargers end up just
(42:03):
being guys that the hardballs like to play both ways.
And so I think that's got to be the least
relevant because they don't even have to be on the field.
Their impact is so minimal. I thought punter kicker for
less than half a second, because anybody knows kickers, forget
about how important they are. Punters. You have two bed
(42:24):
punts in a game. It could fuck you. It could
change the entire tenor of the game.
Speaker 2 (42:30):
Yeah, brutal.
Speaker 1 (42:33):
We're going to do another mail bag. I didn't get
to all the questions today. We are going to do
another mail bag because they come flying in so we
want to get to as many as we can. As
a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
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Simon and I will return with our next episode of
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(44:00):
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