April 18, 2025 • 12 mins
Jason breaks down his top 10 NBA Finals contenders heading into the playoffs. This is NOT a ranking of the BEST teams, it's a ranking of the teams with the best chance to win the title this season. He goes through how he ranked the Boston Celtics vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, why he has the Los Angeles Lakers high up, how the Los Angeles Clippers compare to the Golden State Warriors, and more
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. The NBA eighty two game grind is done,
and now the real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs are
here and it's time for all the high stakes drama,
clutch moments, and jaw dropping plays. I can't wait. If
you're looking to make the playoffs even more exciting, DraftKings
Sportsbook has you covered as an official sports betting partner
(00:21):
of the NBA from the playing games all the way
through to the finals. Now's the time to back your
favorite players and teams as they chase glory. All season long.
DraftKings has been the go to spot for NBA player
props and that does not stop. Now. Want to make
your playoff experience even more intense, Try placing a bet
on your favorite player's performance. Well they drop thirty points,
forty or more, it's your call. Ready to place your
(00:41):
first bet? Download the DraftKings Sportsbook gap Now lock in
your bets. Let's make this playoff run unforgettable. Here's something
special for first timers. New DraftKings customers. Bet five dollars
to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Instantly make
it a playoff run to remember with DraftKings. Download the
Draft Kings sportsbook gap and use code hoops. That's h oops.
(01:02):
That's code hoops for new customers to get two hundred
dollars in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks
only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called
Wayne hundred gambler In New York call eight seven seven
eight Hope and y or text hope and why to
four six seven three sixty nine. In Connecticut, help us
available for problem gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight
nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org.
(01:26):
Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort
in Kansas twenty one plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction.
Void in Ontario, New customers only. Bonus bets expire one
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms
and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio.
(01:57):
All right, welcome to tonight. You're at the volume hoop
all of you guys. They're having a great week today.
We are going through our contender rankings like we do
every single year. Usually we have Sam Vassini on, but
we had a scheduling conflict this week and we couldn't
make it work, but I still wanted to give you
guys my contender rankings before the playoffs starts. So today
we're gonna be listing the top ten contenders in the NBA,
(02:18):
and then I have about five or six little kind
of like follow up points to make about why I
have teams ranked in specific spots, so you guys can
understand my reasoning. You guys are the jow before we
get started, subscribe to the Hoops and O YouTube channels.
You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
on Twitter at Underscore JCNLTS. You guys don't miss you announcements.
So forget about a podcast feed wherever you get your
podcasts under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you
leave a rating in a review on that front. We
(02:40):
also have social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook
where Jackson's doing incredible work this year. Make sure you
guys follow us there and the last not at least
kee dropping mail back questions and YouTube comments so we
can keep getting to them throughout the remainder of the season.
So upfront, important context, This is not just a ranking
of the best teams in the NBA. There are teams
that I have on this list that are lower than
teams that I don't think are as good at basketball
(03:02):
as them. However, the sole purpose of this list is
to rank the teams based on what I think is
their chance to win the title. So matchups can play
a role, which conference you're in, health can play a role,
So many different things can go into it can be
factored in when we're talking about strictly hoisting the trophy. Now,
(03:23):
about a week ago, I did a list for the
Nerd Sash guys. This is what it looked like at
that point in time. Celtics at one, Thunder at two,
Lakers at three, Calves at four, Warriors at five, Timberwolves
at six, Pacers at seven, Nuggets at eight, Clippers at nine,
Knicks at ten. Now, after having another week's worth of
high leverage games, I would make two tweaks. I would
(03:46):
move the Clippers up to five, meaning everyone else is
going to slide down from there. I just thought they
were really impressive in their win in Golden State, and
Kawhi just looks so fantastic that I think they're a
little bit more dangerous as a four round win type
of team. But I'm keeping everyone else in order from there,
and then the other draw a kind of change that
I'm making. I had the Knicks at ten. I'm dropping
(04:08):
the Knicks off the list, and I'm moving the Bucks up.
I actually had twelve teams with the Bucks in the
Rockets being the too off the list, but I'm moving
the Bucks up and I'm moving the Knicks down. I
will explain my reasoning there for a minute. So the
final list that I'm going with into the playoffs this
year is Celtics at one, Thunder at two, Lakers at three,
Calves at four, Clippers at five, Warriors at six, Timberwolves
(04:32):
at seven, Pacers at eight, Nuggets at nine, Bucks at ten.
One other detail before we get into some of the specifics.
I think there's a drop off after six that one
through six. I view, as you know, that's how I
would rank those teams, and I think those are the
six teams that have the best chance to get this done.
I think there's a pretty considerable drop off down from there.
(04:54):
I think all those teams at big strengths, but their
weaknesses are very big, and it just seems inevitable to
me that other six teams will eventually run into a
team that can exploit that weakness and eliminate them. That
seven through twelve, so the Timberwolves, Pacers, Nuggets, Bucks, and
then the Knicks and the and the Knicks and the Rockets.
I view all those teams as more or less on
(05:14):
the same level that I'm less concerned about where they're
specifically ranked. I feel pretty strongly about those top six teams, though,
So let's get into some specifics. Why is Boston over OKAC?
Oklahoma City, last I checked, was still the favorite to
win the title. Why do I have Boston over Oka See? Well,
to put it simply, I think that their age has
(05:37):
caused them, relative to OKAC to have a somewhat less
successful statistical performance in the regular season, and I think
that that's not necessarily an accurate representation of those two
teams in their ceilings. I've said this a bunch of
times on the show. Alex Cruso is the only guy
in the core playoff rotation for the Thunder that's over
the age of twenty six. Jason Tatum is the only
guy in the Celtics actual playoff rotation that's twenty six
(06:01):
or younger. That whole team is older, considerably older than Okay. See,
they're not going to bring the night to night effort
that Okase did, and yet they were still a dominant
regular season team that still looked excellent on most nights.
So I don't think the regular season data is as
revealing of a gap between OKAC and Boston as everyone
else thinks. From there, I just think they're more experienced,
(06:24):
and I think they're more versatile. I think that makes
them more reliable to be at their ceiling as they
get into higher leverage games. I can count on Drew Holliday,
Derek White, Al Horford in a different way than I
feel like I can count on chet Holmgren, Lou Dort,
and Jalen Williams to consistently well when the stakes go
(06:45):
up to their highest. Do I think Okaye can win,
of course, and I have them at number two, But
I think the Celtics for me, deserve the nod as
the most likely team to win the championship this year.
Why are the Lakers over the Cavaliers. This is the
first example of what I talked about earlier in terms
of a team potentially being better than the team that's
above them, but me dropping them because I don't think
(07:06):
they're as likely to hoist the trophy. The Calves are
a better basketball team than the Lakers. They've demonstrated that
pretty much from start to finish this season. However, I
think the Lakers are more equipped to upset the Oklahoma
City Thunder than the Calves are to upset the Boston Celtics.
I think the Calves have a real chance to beat Boston.
(07:27):
I think their wins, though, showed that things worked for
them best in crunch time when guys were out of
the lineup. A lot of attacking Sam Hauser, a lot
of matchups in crunch time that Donovan Mitchell was able
to go at. That just won't be there when they
end up in a postseason series with Boston. When they
end up in a postseason series with Boston. I know
Tatum can score on Evan Mobley, I've seen him do it.
(07:48):
I know Tatum can score on Jared Allen. I've seen
him do it. I know Tatum can consistently generate good
shots against Darius Garland. I've seen him do it. I
think the Celtics just have more advantages that they can
exploit over the course of a real life play series
and not these regular season meetings that they have. I
think Boston is just a much much better team than
the Cleveland Cavaliers, and I think they'll show it when
(08:09):
they get into the postseason. The Lakers specifically present a
matchup problem for OKC. They are too big on the
perimeter for okc's smaller perimeter players. Lebron and Luke are
too comfortable. They have the ability to on defense, load
up on Shay and on offense spread them out and
pick them apart. I thought they demonstrated that pretty clearly
(08:30):
in their two game set that they played earlier this season.
I think the Lakers are more likely to upset OKC
and get into the finals than the Calves are to
upset Boston and get into the finals. Therefore, the Lakers
are more likely to win the championship this year than
the Calves, even though the Calves are a better team.
And so that's why I put the Lakers at three
on the championship contender list. Why did you drop the Warriors?
(08:52):
The Warriors have been a really hard team for me
to get a read on over the course of the
last couple of weeks, because they looked unbelievable there for
a long time after the dead line. But then they
just in several high leverage games in a row, the
Houston game on Sunday, the Spurs game, the Blazers game,
the Clippers game, the Grizzlies game. They just didn't look
like the same type of, you know, world beating, championship
(09:14):
contending type of team that they looked before. They lost
that game to Houston. They lost that game to San Antonio.
They beat Portland, but then they lost that game to
the Clippers, and they were in danger of losing that
game to the Grizzlies. And like, those teams are all good,
but none of them are among the teams that we
have in the top tier of this list, except for
the Clippers. And they lost that game. And so I'm
(09:35):
a little bit lower on Golden State than I was
before because they look a little worn down. The role
players look a little less confident. They've got what appears
to be a shooting problem that has risen to the surface.
I'm a little concerned about Golden State. That's why I
ended up dropping them, but I do still have them
on that tier. Big believer in their defense. I think
Jimmy has looked fantastic in these last two super high
(09:56):
leverage games. Still a believer in the Warriors, But to me,
the Clippers did more at the tail end of the
season to demonstrate to me that they had a championship
ceiling than the Warriors. So that's why I moved them.
Why are the Nuggets solow? I'm a huge believer in
Nikola Jokic. I think he's the best player in the world.
I think he's the best offensive player I've ever seen.
But I don't think their defense is anywhere near good
(10:17):
enough to win four playoff rounds. I think it's a
death sentence. I think they're high risk to lose in
round one. I think they're high risk to lose, like
their high risk to lose in every single round because
of their defense. And so I just would be stunned
if Denver ended up winning the title this year. For me,
I dropped him way down because I just think there's
a lot of teams playing much better basketball than them
right now. And then, lastly, why did I drop the
(10:40):
Knicks for the Milwaukee Bucks? Really just comes down to Giannis.
Over the course of the tail end of the season,
I was just so blown away by this work that
Giannis has been doing as an on ball shot creator
without Dame. I said this on my show the other day,
But over his last six games of the season, where
he went six to OHO, the team actually went eight
to OH their last dight, but Yanna sat out two
of those games. In those six wins, Giannas averaged thirty
(11:02):
two to twelve and twelve on over sixty percent from
the field, over forty percent from three on over two
attempts per game, and over seventy percent from the line.
He legitimately has been like two way Luka Doncic over
the course of the last month or so of the season.
I think that is a huge wild card going into
a postseason run. That makes the Bucks a substantially more
(11:23):
dangerous team than they looked earlier in the season than
when they were playing so much more through Dane. Also,
there's a version of this where Dame doesn't play and
they lean more into their defensive personnel. I think that
the Bucks have just a little bit more of a
puncher's chance to make some noise than the Knicks two
on the strength of Giannis Antennacumbo, and so that's why
I move them up to ten. But to put it frankly,
(11:44):
I don't think the Knicks or the Bucks really have
that much of a chance this year. All Right, that's
all I have for my top ten contender rankings. Again,
as always, I appreciate you guys for supporting me and
supporting the show. Super excited for this playoff run. Super
excited to get into the chess match in every series.
I will see you guys on Saturday. What's up guys?
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
(12:04):
OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us
if you guys would take a second and leave a
rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
do that, I'd really appreciate it. The volume
The volume. The NBA eighty two game grind is done,
and now the real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs are
here and it's time for all the high stakes drama,
clutch moments, and jaw dropping plays. I can't wait. If
you're looking to make the playoffs even more exciting, DraftKings
Sportsbook has you covered as an official sports betting partner
(00:21):
of the NBA from the playing games all the way
through to the finals. Now's the time to back your
favorite players and teams as they chase glory. All season long.
DraftKings has been the go to spot for NBA player
props and that does not stop. Now. Want to make
your playoff experience even more intense, Try placing a bet
on your favorite player's performance. Well they drop thirty points,
forty or more, it's your call. Ready to place your
(00:41):
first bet? Download the DraftKings Sportsbook gap Now lock in
your bets. Let's make this playoff run unforgettable. Here's something
special for first timers. New DraftKings customers. Bet five dollars
to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Instantly make
it a playoff run to remember with DraftKings. Download the
Draft Kings sportsbook gap and use code hoops. That's h oops.
(01:02):
That's code hoops for new customers to get two hundred
dollars in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks
only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called
Wayne hundred gambler In New York call eight seven seven
eight Hope and y or text hope and why to
four six seven three sixty nine. In Connecticut, help us
available for problem gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight
nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org.
(01:26):
Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort
in Kansas twenty one plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction.
Void in Ontario, New customers only. Bonus bets expire one
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms
and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio.
(01:57):
All right, welcome to tonight. You're at the volume hoop
all of you guys. They're having a great week today.
We are going through our contender rankings like we do
every single year. Usually we have Sam Vassini on, but
we had a scheduling conflict this week and we couldn't
make it work, but I still wanted to give you
guys my contender rankings before the playoffs starts. So today
we're gonna be listing the top ten contenders in the NBA,
(02:18):
and then I have about five or six little kind
of like follow up points to make about why I
have teams ranked in specific spots, so you guys can
understand my reasoning. You guys are the jow before we
get started, subscribe to the Hoops and O YouTube channels.
You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
on Twitter at Underscore JCNLTS. You guys don't miss you announcements.
So forget about a podcast feed wherever you get your
podcasts under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you
leave a rating in a review on that front. We
(02:40):
also have social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook
where Jackson's doing incredible work this year. Make sure you
guys follow us there and the last not at least
kee dropping mail back questions and YouTube comments so we
can keep getting to them throughout the remainder of the season.
So upfront, important context, This is not just a ranking
of the best teams in the NBA. There are teams
that I have on this list that are lower than
teams that I don't think are as good at basketball
(03:02):
as them. However, the sole purpose of this list is
to rank the teams based on what I think is
their chance to win the title. So matchups can play
a role, which conference you're in, health can play a role,
So many different things can go into it can be
factored in when we're talking about strictly hoisting the trophy. Now,
(03:23):
about a week ago, I did a list for the
Nerd Sash guys. This is what it looked like at
that point in time. Celtics at one, Thunder at two,
Lakers at three, Calves at four, Warriors at five, Timberwolves
at six, Pacers at seven, Nuggets at eight, Clippers at nine,
Knicks at ten. Now, after having another week's worth of
high leverage games, I would make two tweaks. I would
(03:46):
move the Clippers up to five, meaning everyone else is
going to slide down from there. I just thought they
were really impressive in their win in Golden State, and
Kawhi just looks so fantastic that I think they're a
little bit more dangerous as a four round win type
of team. But I'm keeping everyone else in order from there,
and then the other draw a kind of change that
I'm making. I had the Knicks at ten. I'm dropping
(04:08):
the Knicks off the list, and I'm moving the Bucks up.
I actually had twelve teams with the Bucks in the
Rockets being the too off the list, but I'm moving
the Bucks up and I'm moving the Knicks down. I
will explain my reasoning there for a minute. So the
final list that I'm going with into the playoffs this
year is Celtics at one, Thunder at two, Lakers at three,
Calves at four, Clippers at five, Warriors at six, Timberwolves
(04:32):
at seven, Pacers at eight, Nuggets at nine, Bucks at ten.
One other detail before we get into some of the specifics.
I think there's a drop off after six that one
through six. I view, as you know, that's how I
would rank those teams, and I think those are the
six teams that have the best chance to get this done.
I think there's a pretty considerable drop off down from there.
(04:54):
I think all those teams at big strengths, but their
weaknesses are very big, and it just seems inevitable to
me that other six teams will eventually run into a
team that can exploit that weakness and eliminate them. That
seven through twelve, so the Timberwolves, Pacers, Nuggets, Bucks, and
then the Knicks and the and the Knicks and the Rockets.
I view all those teams as more or less on
(05:14):
the same level that I'm less concerned about where they're
specifically ranked. I feel pretty strongly about those top six teams, though,
So let's get into some specifics. Why is Boston over OKAC?
Oklahoma City, last I checked, was still the favorite to
win the title. Why do I have Boston over Oka See? Well,
to put it simply, I think that their age has
(05:37):
caused them, relative to OKAC to have a somewhat less
successful statistical performance in the regular season, and I think
that that's not necessarily an accurate representation of those two
teams in their ceilings. I've said this a bunch of
times on the show. Alex Cruso is the only guy
in the core playoff rotation for the Thunder that's over
the age of twenty six. Jason Tatum is the only
guy in the Celtics actual playoff rotation that's twenty six
(06:01):
or younger. That whole team is older, considerably older than Okay. See,
they're not going to bring the night to night effort
that Okase did, and yet they were still a dominant
regular season team that still looked excellent on most nights.
So I don't think the regular season data is as
revealing of a gap between OKAC and Boston as everyone
else thinks. From there, I just think they're more experienced,
(06:24):
and I think they're more versatile. I think that makes
them more reliable to be at their ceiling as they
get into higher leverage games. I can count on Drew Holliday,
Derek White, Al Horford in a different way than I
feel like I can count on chet Holmgren, Lou Dort,
and Jalen Williams to consistently well when the stakes go
(06:45):
up to their highest. Do I think Okaye can win,
of course, and I have them at number two, But
I think the Celtics for me, deserve the nod as
the most likely team to win the championship this year.
Why are the Lakers over the Cavaliers. This is the
first example of what I talked about earlier in terms
of a team potentially being better than the team that's
above them, but me dropping them because I don't think
(07:06):
they're as likely to hoist the trophy. The Calves are
a better basketball team than the Lakers. They've demonstrated that
pretty much from start to finish this season. However, I
think the Lakers are more equipped to upset the Oklahoma
City Thunder than the Calves are to upset the Boston Celtics.
I think the Calves have a real chance to beat Boston.
(07:27):
I think their wins, though, showed that things worked for
them best in crunch time when guys were out of
the lineup. A lot of attacking Sam Hauser, a lot
of matchups in crunch time that Donovan Mitchell was able
to go at. That just won't be there when they
end up in a postseason series with Boston. When they
end up in a postseason series with Boston. I know
Tatum can score on Evan Mobley, I've seen him do it.
(07:48):
I know Tatum can score on Jared Allen. I've seen
him do it. I know Tatum can consistently generate good
shots against Darius Garland. I've seen him do it. I
think the Celtics just have more advantages that they can
exploit over the course of a real life play series
and not these regular season meetings that they have. I
think Boston is just a much much better team than
the Cleveland Cavaliers, and I think they'll show it when
(08:09):
they get into the postseason. The Lakers specifically present a
matchup problem for OKC. They are too big on the
perimeter for okc's smaller perimeter players. Lebron and Luke are
too comfortable. They have the ability to on defense, load
up on Shay and on offense spread them out and
pick them apart. I thought they demonstrated that pretty clearly
(08:30):
in their two game set that they played earlier this season.
I think the Lakers are more likely to upset OKC
and get into the finals than the Calves are to
upset Boston and get into the finals. Therefore, the Lakers
are more likely to win the championship this year than
the Calves, even though the Calves are a better team.
And so that's why I put the Lakers at three
on the championship contender list. Why did you drop the Warriors?
(08:52):
The Warriors have been a really hard team for me
to get a read on over the course of the
last couple of weeks, because they looked unbelievable there for
a long time after the dead line. But then they
just in several high leverage games in a row, the
Houston game on Sunday, the Spurs game, the Blazers game,
the Clippers game, the Grizzlies game. They just didn't look
like the same type of, you know, world beating, championship
(09:14):
contending type of team that they looked before. They lost
that game to Houston. They lost that game to San Antonio.
They beat Portland, but then they lost that game to
the Clippers, and they were in danger of losing that
game to the Grizzlies. And like, those teams are all good,
but none of them are among the teams that we
have in the top tier of this list, except for
the Clippers. And they lost that game. And so I'm
(09:35):
a little bit lower on Golden State than I was
before because they look a little worn down. The role
players look a little less confident. They've got what appears
to be a shooting problem that has risen to the surface.
I'm a little concerned about Golden State. That's why I
ended up dropping them, but I do still have them
on that tier. Big believer in their defense. I think
Jimmy has looked fantastic in these last two super high
(09:56):
leverage games. Still a believer in the Warriors, But to me,
the Clippers did more at the tail end of the
season to demonstrate to me that they had a championship
ceiling than the Warriors. So that's why I moved them.
Why are the Nuggets solow? I'm a huge believer in
Nikola Jokic. I think he's the best player in the world.
I think he's the best offensive player I've ever seen.
But I don't think their defense is anywhere near good
(10:17):
enough to win four playoff rounds. I think it's a
death sentence. I think they're high risk to lose in
round one. I think they're high risk to lose, like
their high risk to lose in every single round because
of their defense. And so I just would be stunned
if Denver ended up winning the title this year. For me,
I dropped him way down because I just think there's
a lot of teams playing much better basketball than them
right now. And then, lastly, why did I drop the
(10:40):
Knicks for the Milwaukee Bucks? Really just comes down to Giannis.
Over the course of the tail end of the season,
I was just so blown away by this work that
Giannis has been doing as an on ball shot creator
without Dame. I said this on my show the other day,
But over his last six games of the season, where
he went six to OHO, the team actually went eight
to OH their last dight, but Yanna sat out two
of those games. In those six wins, Giannas averaged thirty
(11:02):
two to twelve and twelve on over sixty percent from
the field, over forty percent from three on over two
attempts per game, and over seventy percent from the line.
He legitimately has been like two way Luka Doncic over
the course of the last month or so of the season.
I think that is a huge wild card going into
a postseason run. That makes the Bucks a substantially more
(11:23):
dangerous team than they looked earlier in the season than
when they were playing so much more through Dane. Also,
there's a version of this where Dame doesn't play and
they lean more into their defensive personnel. I think that
the Bucks have just a little bit more of a
puncher's chance to make some noise than the Knicks two
on the strength of Giannis Antennacumbo, and so that's why
I move them up to ten. But to put it frankly,
(11:44):
I don't think the Knicks or the Bucks really have
that much of a chance this year. All Right, that's
all I have for my top ten contender rankings. Again,
as always, I appreciate you guys for supporting me and
supporting the show. Super excited for this playoff run. Super
excited to get into the chess match in every series.
I will see you guys on Saturday. What's up guys?
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
(12:04):
OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us
if you guys would take a second and leave a
rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
do that, I'd really appreciate it. The volume
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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Gregg Rosenthal and a rotating crew of elite NFL Media co-hosts, including Patrick Claybon, Colleen Wolfe, Steve Wyche, Nick Shook and Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic get you caught up daily on all the NFL news and analysis you need to be smarter and funnier than your friends.