April 24, 2025 • 46 mins
The NFL Draft is just hours away, and Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to provide their final bets before Round One begins. Today they are joined by colleagues Chris Raybon and Evan Abrams, who share their insights into what promises to be a tumultuous Thursday night affair. Plus, we hear about the latest specials at bet365 for the big night, a landing spot for Ashton Jeanty, and so much more. #Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by That three
sixty five.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
We are a part of.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
The Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the
Action Network.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Today.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
I am joined as always by my cos my companion
Mike and Padre and my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter
l Simon.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Chad.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
We made it, brother, we made it, and I needed
it bad. I don't know if you know this, but
it is the dark days in Philadelphia with Philadelphia sports
right now. We don't have playoffs and hockey, we don't
have playoffs in basketball. The Phillies have already been there's
seasons over. It's only in April. The season's over for
Philadelphia Phillies. So I need this draft. I just need
(00:59):
k So I'm so happy it's her brother. We're four
months away from the start of the season. This will
at least hold us over for what two weeks a
little draft talks.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
I'm so happy it's here.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Well, look, it'll be two weeks and then we also get.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Schedule release, and then we get win totals, and then
we get to start the real work of digging in
because we'll know the rosters, will know the draft picks,
we'll know the schemes.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
We'll know it all. Brother. What we're going to.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Know today after we talk to our guests is so
much more than we know right now, because the fifteen
minutes we were waiting to go on the air was insane.
Revelatory prices are moving, there are rumors everywhere, There are
mock tracks that are so contradictory, two with each other.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Nobody knows anything.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
We begin the twenty twenty five NFL Draft in Green
Bay tonight. Today's show has are co hosts of the
Action Network podcast, who have been leading that show's NFL
Draft coverage for the past two months. Two mainstays as
guests on The Favorites. Chris Ravem, one of the best
(02:16):
fantasy rankers in the history of fantasy rankers. You can
also hear him every week on The Fantasy Flex with
Sean Kerner maybe his only equal when it comes to
fantasy rankers. And Evan Abrams, our regular director of research,
the man who signs authentic jerseys filled with stats he
(02:40):
spews on the show.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
We're going to get to him in a second.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
As a reminder, The Favorite podcast is presented by BET
three sixty five and New BET three six five customers
get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets. When
you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites,
deposit ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can use on spreads to those player props.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Features, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
At bet three six five, must be twenty one or
older than present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
restrictions apply. All right, Simon, I want to start with
you because we had McShay on the show about a
(03:27):
week ago and he mentioned something about Ashton Genty, the
running back from Boise State who everyone agrees is a
singular talent except for maybe Matthew Friedman, and his draft
prospects have been rising. I know Raybon has a lot
(03:49):
of thoughts on Genty. I know Evan has been combing
the catacombs for research on Gent. A lot of opinions
about j who seems to be of a pivot point
in this draft. Give me and give the audience our
listeners the intel that you started hearing after.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Mcshae came on the show and talked about genty.
Speaker 4 (04:13):
Yeah, I'll give tons of credit to mcshagh where he
came on here, and again my ears perked up because
I had heard people talk a little bit about gent
going outside the top ten, and he was priced that
way right when he was on here.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
He was over under eight and a half pick eight
and a half, and.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
The over I believe was like plus one point fifty
at the time, so you know, minus two hundred on
the under of eight and a half at that point,
it was something around there.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
He came on here and talked about.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
The possibility of him going to the Patriots, which at
the time was sixteen to one. Now it's four to one,
you know, a week later, so he was really head
of the market. I took a large position on it
just because I believe what he was saying. I love
the Gente talent. I think what really came down to
what me and you talked about just the fact that
teams have overreacted, in my opinion, to what happened with
(05:02):
the Eagles last year in Saquon. Teams think now they
think they're running back away where it's just it's never
that easy, right cheat. We always joke about that it's
not just one piece. For most teams, that was a
very unique situation, but in the NFL, we've seen that
these teams really do believe that. Now you know, we're
sitting here a week later, he might not go to Patriots,
but all of a sudden, the Jaguars are that fifth pick,
(05:23):
the trade out position has become the hot bet, and
he is now minus two fifty to go Genti at
pick five, which is crazy to think that, you know,
just a week ago he wasn't even supposed to go
in the top ten. Now it's big money minus money
that he's going to be a pick five. And to me,
(05:44):
I have two big things I need to happen that
I bet on. I need Sanders to go top ten.
That'd be very profitable for me because I've just been
betting really high plus numbers.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Just in case everyone isn't hasn't been listening, You mean
shoud or Sanders.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
Shador Sanders, Yes, and genty to be a top five pick, Like,
as long as he goes under that six and a half,
you know, if he slips past the Raiders, I'm gonna
take a big negative on the day. It's really my
largest position, and it's you know, the type of thing
where everyone takes position for different reasons. I mainly took
a position just because every scout I talked to said
(06:20):
he was their number three, number two prospect, every single
one I talk to, Chad. So if I'm getting that info,
and then someone like Todd mcshaye comes on here and
says what he says and then goes on a bunch
of other big mainstream shows and start saying the same
thing that what he's hearing is gent going top five.
I feel very lucky that we got him in here
early and I was able to bet it really before
(06:41):
anyone else, And it's like that's the dream, snare.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
I told you, I bet it the whole weekend.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
So when people ask about the draft in my betting
style with it, I do bet a lot of stuff,
but I try to find one or two edges and
just lean into it hard, like really take a position
on it, and then I get caught every now and then,
like me, Chad knows the story. Bryce on my worst
call ever. I just I never thought in any world
he'd be number one pick. It does happen. So I'm
(07:05):
not telling you everyone to go out there for your
life season here on gent being a top five pick.
We all sit here and we talk with different people.
But at the end of the day, like Chris and
I'm sure Evan can attest to it, it's a guessing
game the in the day, right we're playing off people's mocks.
So I do feel confident chat. But you know the deal, brother,
I didn't sleep last night. It's a lot of nerves
because you're just you're betting on the what if, not
(07:28):
so much what you.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Know, Ray Bund, You've been loving genty for a long time.
You guys have been talking about this. How do you
feel about this movement?
Speaker 5 (07:39):
It'll expected it, I think, I know, me and Evnant
have been kind of talking about kind of taking like
looking at that top of the board, we didn't there
was so much uncertainty, even going back throughout the whole process,
kind of take what's the second most likely think? I know,
Dan back and I talked about gent in March to
the Jaguars. I think it was something ridiculous fifty to
(08:00):
one or something like they already there was nowhere near
what it is now. So I think one of the
things with the draft, if if you've been betting it
like throughout the process, you're probably in a great spot
right now, is Simon alluded to.
Speaker 6 (08:15):
But now is the time when you really, really, I.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
Think, want to fade the consensus, like it's not the
time to bet an actor denty. He's but the reason
he's there is he as he should be is because
look at the t leaves. This is a bad quarterback class.
This is a bad draft class in general. Acording to
most scouts, teams don't have more than probably ten to
fifteen first round grades on guys in this whole draft.
(08:44):
So what you're seeing is the best players. The cream
is rising to the top, and the best players are
Travis Hunter, ABDW. Carter, and Ashta GenZ. In my opinion,
cam Ward the Titans are just like, oh man, Will
Levis on his knee.
Speaker 6 (09:00):
We can't do that again. So we got it. But
cam Ward's not.
Speaker 5 (09:03):
He's not the fourth best, you know, prospect in this
class and probably somebody like Mason Graham or something like that.
So it's not surprising at all with Gens rising. But
I don't think now is the time you want to
be investing in him. I think now is the time
where you start hitting up these hype guys and kind
of fading the hype of guys like Banks, who like
(09:25):
nothing changed, and he's all of a sudden, you know,
like a mock mocks him number six and now his
over unders like number seven, where it was what Evan
was like in the twenties or thirteen. It was just
thirteen just yesterday at Plus money, and now it's like
seven and a.
Speaker 6 (09:40):
Half at some books. So you just got to kind
of fade the hype now.
Speaker 5 (09:43):
But Gens is there because he's he's I think he's
a top five prospect in a week class.
Speaker 1 (09:49):
All right, before we get to Banks, and we're talking
about Calvin Banks, the offensive tackle from Texas whose numbers
are moving up and his odds are shrinking, Evan I
want and we're going to get to that conversation. Before
we came out of the air, you started talking about
what some books have been saying about their positioning and
(10:10):
what they need tonight.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
Related to Genty, some of this is universal.
Speaker 7 (10:14):
I've heard from a few different ones, but the quote
is basically, they're hoping that gent falls out of the
top five, and everything else they'll figure out later. It
just seems like everyone has invested in that, whether it's
at four, at five, top five. I've even heard some
people say, hey, let's take a shot at three. I
just think what Raybond said, most talented players one, two, three, Carter.
Speaker 8 (10:35):
Hunter eats Genty at the top.
Speaker 7 (10:37):
So I just think in a class where the offensive
skill position players, including the quarterbacks, are being questioned all
over the place, he's just not being questioned. He's one
of the more talented running backs we've seen even enter
the NFL in the last few years. So I just
think it's becoming a what do I want to give
up to move up to get him or just let
(10:59):
someone take the talented guy. So I think right now,
if you're giving like gambling advice on this, like hours
before the draft, I don't think you can invest much
into him, because again, even at three sixty five right now,
under six and a half is like minus five fifty.
There's just hard to even invest in those areas and
minus two fifty again, and even in the last twenty
four hours that five slot, he's gone from one to
(11:21):
seventy to two hundred.
Speaker 8 (11:22):
To two fifty. It just keeps moving up. So it
seems to be the consensus. Honestly.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
Yeah, the movement on a lot of these players has
been pretty insane. The other player where there's a ton
of movement really on his draft position is shud Or Sanders,
quarterback from Colorado ray Bound. What have you seen and
why do you think this is moving so much?
Speaker 7 (11:47):
So?
Speaker 5 (11:48):
Yeah, to start the process, there was a time when
Shor Sanders was expected to be the number one overall pick.
Then he kind of settled in as the you know,
the consensus number two two for a while, and then
I think, you know, he worked out for some teams
and started sliding a bit, But I just don't think that.
Speaker 6 (12:10):
Again.
Speaker 5 (12:10):
So, the way the draft works for people that are
unfamiliar is teams have their draft boards and they kind
of rate their prospects by round. So they'll be like,
all right, you know, we have ten players for the
first round. Grade now that's thirty two have to go
in the first round. But I think it's a situation
where a lot of teams have a second round or
(12:31):
even lower grade on a Shade or Sanders, and so
you're just seeing them fall. And I think it's interesting
because if you look back at the last ten years
or so, quarterbacks that go in the first round, they
only go to teams that they've done a top thirty
workout for the only time that didn't happen in the
(12:53):
first round was to in the COVID year where I
think he sent the tape workout in to the Dolphins
or something like that.
Speaker 6 (13:01):
Should or Dark all these guys could fall.
Speaker 5 (13:04):
Like I think cam Ward is pretty safe, but I
don't think should or Sanders is a great fit in Pittsburgh.
I know people are talking about the intangibles, but that's
because everyone's just it's they're just looking at team needs
where we don't really know the grades that these teams
have on guys, but just reading between the lines, no
(13:25):
one seems in a rush or no one seems kind
of pressed to take or to to to trade up.
So that tells you what these kind of you know,
what they feel about the quarterback class and just the
class in general. No one's been able to trade period
because everyone wants to trade back because it's better to
just take a bunch of shots because no one really
likes anyone, so I should always just kind of included
(13:47):
in that. I think I think the issue with him
is arm strength, uh and that and and that's it.
That would be a real issue for Pittsburgh, which is
why I don't think he goes twenty one, or if
he doesn't go there, you might just see the second
round play out like the thought a month ago or
even a couple of weeks ago, that the first round
would play out where you know Cleveland, it's between Cleveland
and the Giants. You know who gets Shudor and who
(14:08):
gets Jackson Dark Because just the quarterbacks as a whole
are kind of kind of falling, and if other guys
are rising, I think it's just kind of fake hype
to make up for the fact that you know, Shador
was at one point expected to go number two. So
now you're seeing like, oh, well, maybe mill Road takes
his place. They're like, it's like, no, just no one
likes any of these guys. Cam Ward is the best
quarterback and he's met Like I heard a scout say
(14:32):
Mason Rudolph Mason Rudolph would be the number three quarterback
in this class. So that tells you what people think
about this quarterback class.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Well, Simon, you just said that you're heavily invested in
Shadoor top ten.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
How did you get there?
Speaker 3 (14:49):
Just because of the numbers? It was most books yesterday.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
Moved to ten and a half at plus three hundred.
I said, okay, I'll take a position, and then it
goes to fourteen and a half.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
Chap plus three hundred.
Speaker 4 (15:00):
Got to take another position, I guess, And then it
gets up the twenty one and a half and it goes, okay,
well we're at this point now.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
It's not as juiced up, right.
Speaker 4 (15:08):
I think the twenty and a half was minus one
p fifteen when I first saw it, So you know
you're not getting that crazy value obviously with the plus number.
But still bet it just because of how much is moved.
I could easily be caught here chat. But my bet
is simply on desperation. And you know these teams act
confident insecure, but we've seen teams panic time and time
(15:28):
again when this draft starts, and it is because so
many of these guys are thinking future, right, Like if
you're a GM Sanders might extend you another year or
two of a life because you got this young kid
in there, right, You got the young quarterback, and it's
all about potential, Like this is someone that you know.
People I respect have him great as their number one quarterback.
(15:48):
So when I see that, I'm just like, Okay, all
it takes is one team to love the kid. That's
That's what I'm betting on, one team to love them.
They finally take a position, they move either to take
them or they take them to the draft.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Spot have.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
So my view of this class is like when I've
talked to scouts chat, it's been they love next year.
So most that's the biggest issue for this class right
now is next year's class looks like a jugger or not.
It looks like the year before right, like you might
have one, two, maybe even three legit QB one all
pros where this class, like Chris just said, we would
(16:23):
all be shocked if cam Ward ends up being an
All pro. I think he could be talented. I think
he could be a pro bowler, but like we've heard,
the ceiling for him is like what people compare him
through Steve McNair. That would be insane if he could
reach out potential, but the odds are so slim where
the next year's class, there's feels like there's a couple
of guys that have a lot more potential. So that's
(16:43):
been interesting to me chat talking to these different teams
where it's like, Okay, the Browns, they do need a quarterback,
like Chris just said, they might be confident in just
waiting to the second round taking Millrow. They might have
a different grade than we all know on Sanders, right,
they might have him below Dart and Milrow. So that's
what's so funnering about the betting market. It's like you're
hearing so many teams super negative. Are you hearing much
(17:05):
positive chat about Sanders?
Speaker 7 (17:07):
No?
Speaker 4 (17:07):
And that's for a good reason, right, So that's why
i love making these type of bets. I'm betting on
that dark horse team that's just not saying a word,
like the Atlanta Falcons last year taking Pendix when they
did right, no one saw it coming.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
That's kind of what I'm banking on here.
Speaker 4 (17:20):
So yeah, it's it's really fun where like you know,
the Rams, I've taken a position on them to take
Sanders at fifty to one, because I could see in
some crazy world McVeigh loves him.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
We want to know. So there's always teams like that.
I'll do that chat. But it's like, do I've inside info?
Speaker 4 (17:36):
No? If I did, people we'd be we'd be going
crazy on here right now. But yeah, the Sanders chatter
to me is interesting. It's all negative the last two
three days before the draft. Zero positive. And that's very
telling that there are teams out there that love them.
They're just playing the game right now.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
How do we get here?
Speaker 8 (17:53):
Here's what.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
None of this makes sense to me, and it's so stupid.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
And these are these are billion dollar franchises, right, These
are not in insignificant businesses that are flying under the radar.
And these are decisions that have generational impacts on the
success of these teams. The revenue these teams can drive,
(18:19):
the fandom of these teams, the profile of these teams.
These are massive decisions. Shedroy Sanders during the college football season,
everybody's like, Oh, this guy's gonna be the number one pick.
There wasn't even a question, right, it was like consensus.
He's the best, He's the guy we want. It's not
(18:42):
like cam Ward, who had a great year at Miami
was that different of a quarterback at Washington State? He
just did it against you could argue nominally better competition.
It's not like the ACC was so much better than.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
The pack twelve.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
So why is this thing so fucking flawed? It is
so stupid. The entire decision making process. To me, it
just feels like Evan, it just feels like we're throwing darts.
How are we making any decisions here with any confidence.
Speaker 7 (19:17):
I think people started, and this is just my opinion,
and you guys can disagree or agree. I think they
started meeting with Shador and that's what ended up happening.
Like I think you were there, people started to get
like a one on one experience of talking through the playbook,
talking through different things, maybe hearing what he had to
say on some of these things.
Speaker 8 (19:37):
That's when this started to move.
Speaker 7 (19:38):
Like, no one's done almost anything on the field, No
one's done almost anything to move anything really, aside from
having conversations with these players, looking at tape on these
players and trying to make let's call it one hundred
million dollar decisions for billion dollar franchises, right, And I
think he's moved from three and a half in terms
of his draft position all the way up to twenty
(19:58):
one and a half, and at the moment you've got,
you know, maybe your top eight mock drafters, four or
five of them completely out of the first round, while
the other one is like Pittsburgh as shrug emoji. And
that's kind of what the other person has said, because
at this point, no one is saying, like Simon said
that they like him.
Speaker 8 (20:16):
It's all negative.
Speaker 7 (20:17):
Energy leading up to the draft, which is completely moving
his number up. So I mean, personally today, what I
would do to bet on it. I mean, I'd probably
take a stab on that top ten. But right now
the best odds is three to one, So I mean,
maybe New Orleans are ten to one and it all
being just a smoke screen. And you know, we heard
the car stuff yesterday which was completely strange, completely odd,
(20:41):
like they have no answers, they won't have an answer
before the draft, and now we say, well, they need
a quarterback, so at ten to one, that would probably
be the way I look at it. But you're right, Chad,
I mean it's really really strange considering I think it's
just movement off of conversations and kind of the GMS
and coaches being played awful a little bit like that.
I just don't think they want the circus.
Speaker 5 (21:04):
I think this is this is all just all of
the draft stuff, and the movement is media generated and
prognostication generated. Like I don't think that these teams are
necessarily you know here like kind of I don't think
there's any I don't think they're doing it wrong. I
(21:25):
think I think they probably knew the whole time where
their draft board it was, and then it wasn't until
people really started laying things out and everyone was kind
of waiting for some domino to for like O, I
wish there was a trade so like we could kind
of get some sense of like who's gonna go where
Literally guys are moving like halfway up and down the
board off one mock draft and we're day of the draft,
(21:48):
Day of the draft, and dudes who I couldn't even
name put out a mock like I'm not like you
know what I mean, Like there's just too many of them,
but one guy it's not even like okay.
Speaker 6 (21:59):
Overwhelming them my mocks are doing this.
Speaker 5 (22:01):
It's like, okay, well this guy who does mox and
like finished in the top ten that one year, but
this guy here, so we got to move him from
thirteen to six. It's just no one knows anything. The
team's new all along, I think. But I think media,
first of all, we're a little we're always gonna be
infatuated with quarterbacks.
Speaker 6 (22:20):
And when it's early.
Speaker 5 (22:22):
In the process and you know, you're kind of looking at, okay, well,
quarterbacks at the top of the board. To Simer's point,
you're kind of betting on a desperation. But as we've
gotten I think closer and closer to the draft, I
just think we're kind of seeing a lack of desperation
in the actions. Like it's not just like I don't
(22:43):
think it's just like a teams are. It's like a
smoke screen. And you know, I think the fact that
no movement has been able to happen, no trades have
been able to happen, just tells you that teams don't
have a lot of first round grades, and no one's
really trying to trade up for anyone, and everyone's kind
of comfortable where they are just letting them word fault
to them because there's not really a lot of upside
(23:03):
and less the real reports have been Hunter and Gentee
and cam Ward, So it makes sense the top quarterback
who's probably in a tier above everyone else, and then
just top prospects. So I think I think that I
think the team's knew awlong, but you know, it was
just kind of the and the media hype drives it,
and it's still driving this crazy movement and we're hours out.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
McShay alluded to this last week. There really is no
upside for any GM, any scout, any executive to give
anybody in the media who covers the draft any real information.
So it's all dependent upon us believing that somebody has
a good enough relationship that they're getting directional content. They're
(23:54):
never going to get real content, and more than likely
they're getting shitty content. And so you know, Raybund, you
mentioned Calvin Banks earlier in the show. This is a
guy who the tackle from Texas, was not listed anywhere
as the top overall offensive line prospect. It has been
Will Campbell, Will Campbell, Will Campbell, Will Campbell. All of
(24:16):
a sudden, Evan, you can tell us the numbers Calvin
Banks like could be going as high as number six
to the Raiders at this point. What has the movement
been like for him, but he's a very good example
of Raybon. What you're talking about, Evan, give us the numbers.
Speaker 7 (24:36):
Yeah, it's been consistent movement, honestly, and each week me
and Raybond do the Action podcast. Banks has been like
the conversation every time because it's been steady. So he
opened a twenty four and a half even just yesterday,
I'm about three sixty five. He was at thirteen and
a half, but ends up thirteen and a half over
plus three fifty, ends up moving to now seven and
(24:56):
a half at over at even odds. So I mean,
at at this point, we're just trying to I don't
want to call it randomly, but we're just selecting offensive
tackles at this point. To put into that, I've seen
member with that sixth lot. As soon as we heard
genty going five, I think everyone is trying to figure
out what the heck the Raiders are going to do,
especially because it's a new Raiders. There's Brady involved, there's Cara.
(25:19):
I just think we don't know this Raiders team, so
I think trying to figure out what's going on there.
But Banks a ton of mock drafts. If genty doesn't
go five, I think he'll go six. I think, but
if he goes five, I think Membo Banks are both
the possibilities there. But I think if I look at
it right, I think Banks has been the biggest mover
(25:41):
up out of almost anyone. Second's probably McMillan, but right
now it's Banks. The numbers are crazy. I sent a
screenshot to Raybon and our producer Matt Mitchell last night.
Banks was minus twelve hundred to go top ten at
a certain book. At that point, it's just the movement's insane.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
And nothing has happened. That's what's crazy.
Speaker 5 (25:59):
That's why I tell people should like Evan, you were
talking about Banks being like the number two tackle at
what like ten to one odds and greater than that.
You were high on Banks when he was still people
were still mocking him as a guard.
Speaker 6 (26:13):
Now all of a sudden he's at the top tackle.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Like what this is?
Speaker 5 (26:16):
Nothing has happened, no one, He didn't block anyone, Like
the what what are we doing?
Speaker 8 (26:25):
Well?
Speaker 1 (26:25):
This is what I love about the draft, And I
do want to get to Simon. You've laid out your positions,
but Ray Bond and Evan, I want I want you
to recap positions for people Shamar Stewart defensive end from
Texas A and m you know, he's got four and
a half career sacks in three seasons, but he tested
(26:46):
as the best athlete at the Combine. He's either Mike Mamula,
who old heads will remember, Mike Mamula who was a
defensive end at Boston College who had done thing, went
to the Combine and all of a sudden became a
top ten pick for the Philadelphia Eagles because his athleticism
(27:08):
so wowed every single scout there. Or you know the
Wall Street Journal, which you guys know I love the
sports section of the Wall Street Journal. They had a
story this morning about Stuart where you know, people are
grading him as anything from Javon Curse, who was an
athletic freak who played for the Titans, to Miles Garrett
who is going to be in the Hall of Fame
for the Cleveland Browns. But the guy didn't do anything
(27:32):
in college. And the response you get is, well, it
wasn't a scheme, it wasn't a system that was conducive
to him doing anything. Why can anyone say that and
everyone accepts that without any pushback whatsoever. If the guy
is that good of an athlete in college football, What
(27:54):
coach isn't building the system to take advantage of a
guy who can dominate that. You don't make like a
guy like that a fucking compliment on the defensive line.
You make him the focal point of the defensive line.
This makes no sense to me, Simon, explain it to me.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
Because you're going it from it from just one perspective
where it it does work out that where where you're
taking the potential and I get whe you're coming from
check because there are, in my opinion, way more missus
than hits. But when you do hit on the right
type of potential, it's like you got an all time
or all pro. Like my favorite ever always be the
Jordan of Malata, Like a guy played rugby. Wasn't nobody
(28:38):
The Eagles had them on their board. So we can
get this kid in the seventh round. He's some Australian
guy that plays rugby. He's eighteen, he's biggest shit. We'll
turn him into a left tackle. Now he's probably number one,
number two best left tackle. I know what you're saying, Jet,
and I'm saying, Dad's drafted on potential where like you're
saying the first round. To me, I'm with you that
(28:59):
the risk isn't the same where you're you're taking a
guy a potential in the first round of that greater risk.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
It is not the same.
Speaker 4 (29:05):
But these teams talk themselves into it, Chad, because they
see these guys work out and they say, well, we
have much better coaching, Like right, there's not this kid's
not wasting time going to class. He's going to be
in here work and putting the work in. We're like,
you're saying, it doesn't work that way.
Speaker 3 (29:21):
So I'm with you. I hate it, but I get
why they.
Speaker 4 (29:24):
Do it because for every you know, four or five misses,
the one thing that does it on the one guy.
It's it's huge in football, right, It's it's game changing potential.
So I'm with you, it's it's tough. But you know,
there's this draft class, like we're talking about here at
Chris said it's a weak draft class.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
To me, I love this draft class because they're they're all.
Speaker 4 (29:45):
Feels like the same type of level, Like you can
get really good guys at pick forty two, forty five,
as these teams reaching right now at pick seven, pick six,
So to me.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
It's really interesting.
Speaker 4 (29:57):
Like we're talking about here, like Will Campbell, some people
chat don't even have him as a first rounder because
of his arms.
Speaker 3 (30:03):
Like that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (30:04):
This is crazy that this game might go pick four
and you have some scouts to have a second round
grade on them because of potential. So yeah, it's this
is gonna be a crazy draft class. I can tell
you that from just to get go, you.
Speaker 6 (30:17):
Get some great second rounders in the first round this year.
Speaker 7 (30:20):
I think that's true though. I think that's why the
trading back is so interesting right now, because I think
other teams are looking at the board and saying to themselves, Okay,
well we can draft at eleven or twelve or thirteen,
or we can try to double up and triple up
and get more players. Because I do think it's a
little bit level, Like look at the defensive line. You
have like seven, eight, nine defensive linemen who could be
(30:40):
going in the first round. And I'm sure team's grades
are all over the place, like even Stewart is fifth
or sixth if you look at order on some mock drafts.
So it's just about preference. I think a preference draft
is a real good way to kind of cap it.
Speaker 5 (30:53):
Yeah, and you're gonna you're going to take more risks
in a year, So Stuart, like listen.
Speaker 6 (31:00):
Top quarterback and in the second quarterback. Definitely some teams.
Speaker 5 (31:04):
I don't think I have a top fifty grade on
schuer Sanders Tat McMillan, the same thing was said about him,
he's the consensus number one receiver, and then the minute
they said that about him, the next day, all of
a sudden, teams in the top six are one a
draft that's that's complete damage control. Like to your point
about you know, there's a lot of the media is
kind of being used as you know, mouthpieces. So that's
(31:26):
why I'm just kind of like anti you just got
to kind of fade the consensus. And the earlier you
start doing it in the process, the better positions you're
gonna have. But oh man, this is just a great
a great draft for kind of going against the grain
because I think teams legit have like eight to twelve
first round grades if that, so it could go any
(31:48):
which way.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Well, I want to get into Raybon to what your
thoughts are right now. I just say one more thing
before I ask you that question, is if the Bears
draft Shamar Stewart, I am gonna freaking lose it because
we know the Bears need a defensive end and if
this is how they decide to spend their.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Draft capital, I will freak out.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
Also for pouring one out rip Steve McMichael nineteen eighty five,
Bears legend, Ray Bond, give me your.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
I just gonna say real quick chat.
Speaker 4 (32:17):
But that's our point though, is you can get a
d M in the second round. That's why like this
class it's so fun.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Let's get Stewart in the second round, number ten.
Speaker 4 (32:27):
That's all just say for your drafting style, like you
not wanting to draft on something that only gets four
sacks in college. You don't want to draft that potential.
There are more than half the GM's are legit your
drafting style, Chad, so you're not an island there. So
people might think Chad's being off basis he's not.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Like.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
There's a lot of guys that think the exact same way.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
But there's always gonna be that young punk, right, the
new guy with this computer that's going to come in
and be like, no, the numbers say this, and they
say that, So yeah, I just want to give both
perspective that I agree with Chad that I draft the
same way. I would never draft someone that's not a
football player first.
Speaker 3 (32:59):
That to me is the biggest thing. I wanted an athlete,
all that, but I want a football player first. So
I think Chad's the same way.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
Listen, Chad loves hitting home runs. Chad loves being a
genius for finding a diamond in the rough. I'm looking
at three people that I have hired over the course
of my career who had no business doing any of
the jobs that I hired him for, and it turns
out they were genius. Genius moves home runs. But Chad
(33:27):
knows that home runs are really hard to hit. And
Chad knows that at the end of the day, if
you're building a team, you've got to have a lot
of people who are really good at what they do
and have proven that they're really good at what they
do and have proven they can deliver at high numbers
over an extended period of time if you're going to
spend the money.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
Chad understands these things.
Speaker 1 (33:51):
Shamar Stewart, Shamar Stewart, Chad would not be making Shamar
Stewart a first round pick Raybond, give me your best
bets right now.
Speaker 5 (34:00):
Okay, so we're doing this, you know, all the day
of the draft, so a bunch of over unders are
kind of going crazy. So those are the ones I've
been attacking today. So I'll run through some pretty quick.
Calvin Banks Junior over picked seven and a half at
even money. He's still probably the consensus across all mocks.
(34:21):
He's still at thirteen, but I think Ken is probably
a much more realistic even if you want to buy
to the hype, but it's all hype. Then I got
Ted McMillan over picked twelve and a half at plus
one sixty. I think he's at best probably a fifty
to fifty shot to go to the Cowboys. We don't
even know if they prefer him to Golden And I
(34:45):
think I think the stuff about the Jags and the Raiders,
that was all just damage control after you had and
like mock drafters saying they had they had low grades
on him, and you had teams report teams saying they
barely had him cracked in the top fifty. So I
think that's great value. Then I got Will Johnson under
(35:10):
pick twenty four and a half. I think that the
slide has been too crazy. I mean, he's he was
going in the top ten at some point and nothing's
really changed, But all of a sudden, you know, now
he's like he's not even gonna crack the top twenty four.
Speaker 6 (35:24):
I think that's crazy. And then mill Roe over picked
thirty eight and a half.
Speaker 5 (35:29):
I mean, we're talking about the QB two falling out
of the first round. I think it's more of a
indictment on the whole quarterback class than the fact that,
like Anthony Richardson, light is gonna dart up people's draft boards.
So faded him and one more a mecca of Bucah.
Speaker 6 (35:49):
This one's probably makes me the most nervous.
Speaker 5 (35:52):
But over pick twenty six and a half at plus
one twenty two, or over pick twenty nine and a
half at plus two fifteen. I just most times I've
seen him mocked have been like pick thirty thirty one,
thirty two, or just out of the first round completely,
because there's still a lot of potential to kind of
jockey for that jockeying for position with the quarterback situations,
(36:14):
and there's still I think more defensive players that there's
gonna be runs on positions, you know, like corner and
Edgdress kind of come into an end where teams are
going to feel comfortable kind of waiting on him, so
like him to not crack the top thirty either. I
think in general, I think I think offensive skill positions
are a bit inflated in this draft, top to bottom
(36:36):
in the first rounround.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
Ev I want to get your your latest as well.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
But let me ask the group right now, based on
what we're hearing about Sanders, what you just said about
Milroe Raybond, Like, if the number two rated passer isn't
even may fall out of the first round, what do
we think of under two and a half quarterbacks taken
in the first round.
Speaker 8 (37:04):
I'm a fan.
Speaker 5 (37:04):
It's kind of yeah, it's it's It's probably just not
the best way to attack it, because there is the
possibility that, you know, they just if one team trades up,
then another team might have to trade up just to
make sure because New Orleans is luming.
Speaker 6 (37:20):
But yeah, I think it's probably more likely than not.
Speaker 5 (37:23):
That it's round two is what we thought round one
was gonna be, and no one moves like anywhere.
Speaker 8 (37:30):
The interesting thing is, I think I was just saying
I think Raymond hit on that though.
Speaker 7 (37:33):
I've been betting this draft with him for like over
a month now, and I don't think I've touched that
market of the two and a half quarterbacks because I
think there's just different ways to play it. But if
I had to bet it, i'd probably say under two
and a half just going through some of my bets, though,
I've been betting SEC players over fourteen and a half
for a while now. It's under two to one, under
(37:53):
one to two, so it's minus one ninety five minus
one ninety I don't have to go through all the players,
but I do think fifteen is the record, it would
tie the record, and I see at least fifteen sixteen
getting in there. So that's one bet I like I
was with raybon on Banks. Listen, I've got Banks top
ten at like seven to one, six to one, So
at this point over seven and a half is going
(38:14):
to be the way that I'm at least going to
get back into the market to play it the other
way a little bit. Some first round bets I like,
So I've been on Kenneth Grant for a long time now.
I got him at minus two thirty minus two fifty.
He's up to like three fifty at some places, but
there is a book out there that'll let you like
parlay first round picks, so I think there's at least
(38:35):
an ability to put him in a parlay to potentially
do something.
Speaker 8 (38:39):
The other one I like is Chavon Revel. He was
three to one yesterday to get in the first round quarterback.
It's now plus one eighty.
Speaker 7 (38:46):
I think anything above like plus one fifty range is
still something I would consider. And the other one I
keep betting and listen. I don't know because the odds
keep coming down, but I'm still a fan. Is Hampton
to be the second running back. I just have him
overson in almost every scenario.
Speaker 8 (39:01):
It's down to like minus two fifty. I've seen minus
two thirty.
Speaker 7 (39:05):
I still think at twenty at Denver, and even if
they both fall to the end of the first round
or second round, I still see Hampton as a better option.
So right now those are probably the ones I would consider.
I will say this, yesterday I took some dart throws
on McMillan at nine and McMillan at ten, complete dart
throws eighteen to one at nine, twenty five to one
(39:28):
at ten, they are both now sixteen to one and under,
so him kind of falling or being I know, the
trade up is kind of crazy at this point, but
in those slots seem to be getting some momentum. I
have some specials, but we can talk about that in
a second. Those are direct from bet three sixty five,
but right now, again a lot has moved, but those
are probably the bets.
Speaker 2 (39:50):
Simon. Anything to add other than what we've discussed, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (39:55):
I would say from the beginning of the show what
Chris said about, you know, all this crazy movements off
people's very late mock drafts of the last couple of days,
embrace it like they're talking about the banks play go
against the norm.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
And that quarterback movement, to me is a.
Speaker 4 (40:13):
Incredibly interesting chat because it was up to what minus
three point fifty the over on quarterbacks in the first round.
So that is either they're moving that off air, or
someone incredibly smart with a lot of money and know
and knows what's going on in the league took a
position the books respected and moved off it. Now more
often not in the draft chat, they move off air.
(40:35):
So I'm probably gonna be patient. I'm gonna hope the
public ups following and I'm probably going to bet the
over two and a half and I'll probably bet the
over three and a half just because i know next
year's draft class is really strong with the quarterbacks. But
we've seen these teams trade back into the first round
to get the quarterback just because of the fifth year option, right, Like,
you know how many times have we seen that happen.
(40:56):
I'll bank on that, But I do agree where it's
like we're gonna know pretty right if Sanders falls to
twenty one, Chad, I'm probably gonna eat that, eat that bet.
Speaker 3 (41:04):
That's probably a dead bet because if.
Speaker 4 (41:06):
Pittsburgh or any of these teams pass on him and
he falls out of the first I'm gonna need to
get really lucky on Dart and mill Row to hit
this bet.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
So it really is a bet.
Speaker 4 (41:16):
Where I'm like I said in the beginning of the show,
I'm heavy on betting on Sanders, heavy on gent Ye.
I need a little bit of luck with Sanders here
because every move I've made it's going against me.
Speaker 3 (41:26):
It just keeps going down.
Speaker 4 (41:27):
So yeah, the people in the know, I know, Christmas
to say something here that I might be way off
on Sanders.
Speaker 7 (41:33):
No.
Speaker 6 (41:33):
What I was gonna say is.
Speaker 5 (41:36):
Another position that I'm kind of really strong on is
Sanders not to go to Pittsburgh. I think even people
that are mocking him there, And that's what a lot
of the books are kind of moving off to Simon's point.
They're just saying, like, Pittsburgh just needs a quarterback and
we don't know what else to do, so we're not
going to be right. Yeah, he just makes the least
sense from a skill perspective, giving the receipts they have.
(42:01):
And I know now they're talking about trade and pickings,
so who knows, but I think that it's very Again,
he didn't work out for them. It just doesn't happen
that teams end up going to a quarterback who they
didn't do any pre draft work with. And on top
of that, Pittsburgh could have a deal with Aaron Rodgers
in place, and they just don't want to tip their hand,
(42:21):
and Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to deal with like, you know,
more camp and media questions and stuff and pickings questions, and.
Speaker 6 (42:28):
So they might who knows, but I just don't.
Speaker 5 (42:31):
I think that's a great way to fade some of
like this in a smart way is like Giants plus
six fifty you can get his high to draft standards,
and the Browns.
Speaker 6 (42:42):
You could still get a plus five fifty.
Speaker 5 (42:44):
If Pittsburgh passes on him, the second round might literally
just be what we thought the first round was going
to be for most of the process, where it's the
Browns or the Giants and one of them takes Dart
and one of them takes Standards. And I think that's
a really smart way to attack it, because I just
do not think that that Pittsburgh makes a lot of
sense for uh should.
Speaker 8 (43:06):
Ing with that thought process.
Speaker 7 (43:08):
Milroe probably slides as well, which is why the thirty
eight and a half that you posted I think is
interesting because if you believe that they slide, he's gonna
slide as well.
Speaker 6 (43:16):
Yeah, we're gonna talk about shock.
Speaker 5 (43:17):
We're here and like Milroe teams have probably second third
round grade on him. But yeah, like if you just
look at the draft order, who's really trying to trade
up for him?
Speaker 6 (43:26):
Even and that like it just.
Speaker 5 (43:27):
Doesn't none of this quarter Quarterbacks are usually just inflated.
There's the one odd year where sometimes a bunch of
quarterbacks go, but generally speaking, and books can choose who
they post, and like you don't see over unders on
like Tonrely or guys like fringe first rounders that you
could that would kind of take the place of some
of these inflated guys.
Speaker 6 (43:47):
So just don't get quotam in a hype's you would.
Speaker 3 (43:50):
Agree that, Chris, there's so many teams you wouldn't be shocked.
Speaker 4 (43:52):
Like the Jets taking Sanders at seven ohet, we wouldn't
shock you just because they're a desperate team with a
crazy owner. So like that, there's a lot of that
where it's like there are teams who need quarterbacks justin fields.
He's not the answer to the Jets future, right, So
I do think that part's interesting when there was a
bunch of dark horse teams willn't even know about that.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
Could just, you know, take one of these quarterbacks.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
Guys in less than twenty four hours, we're going to
know the answers.
Speaker 2 (44:18):
Unless we're going to be we're going to be geniuses.
Speaker 8 (44:21):
We might not know, Yeah, sud we may not know,
but yes, a lot.
Speaker 6 (44:28):
About any quarterback you talked about it.
Speaker 1 (44:30):
If Sor hasn't been drafted, we'll know a lot more
than we did right now.
Speaker 4 (44:34):
That's fair as Steelers just moved the minus one fifty
to take Sanders so that another mock.
Speaker 6 (44:40):
Came in and they didn't know where else that's right.
Speaker 1 (44:44):
As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
Bet three six five. New Bet three six five customers
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when
you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
At Bet three sixty five.
Speaker 1 (45:07):
Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Luisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
older and in Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next
(45:27):
episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday,
one thirty pm Eastern, talking about NFL draft grades.
Speaker 2 (45:34):
Download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get.
Speaker 1 (45:36):
Your PA's rate review, subscribe he as five stars, Say
whatever you want, feedback is it gifts?
Speaker 2 (45:40):
Un till next time, I Love you.
Speaker 8 (45:49):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by That three
sixty five.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
We are a part of.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
The Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the
Action Network.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Today.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
I am joined as always by my cos my companion
Mike and Padre and my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter
l Simon.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Chad.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
We made it, brother, we made it, and I needed
it bad. I don't know if you know this, but
it is the dark days in Philadelphia with Philadelphia sports
right now. We don't have playoffs and hockey, we don't
have playoffs in basketball. The Phillies have already been there's
seasons over. It's only in April. The season's over for
Philadelphia Phillies. So I need this draft. I just need
(00:59):
k So I'm so happy it's her brother. We're four
months away from the start of the season. This will
at least hold us over for what two weeks a
little draft talks.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
I'm so happy it's here.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Well, look, it'll be two weeks and then we also get.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Schedule release, and then we get win totals, and then
we get to start the real work of digging in
because we'll know the rosters, will know the draft picks,
we'll know the schemes.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
We'll know it all. Brother. What we're going to.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Know today after we talk to our guests is so
much more than we know right now, because the fifteen
minutes we were waiting to go on the air was insane.
Revelatory prices are moving, there are rumors everywhere, There are
mock tracks that are so contradictory, two with each other.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Nobody knows anything.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
We begin the twenty twenty five NFL Draft in Green
Bay tonight. Today's show has are co hosts of the
Action Network podcast, who have been leading that show's NFL
Draft coverage for the past two months. Two mainstays as
guests on The Favorites. Chris Ravem, one of the best
(02:16):
fantasy rankers in the history of fantasy rankers. You can
also hear him every week on The Fantasy Flex with
Sean Kerner maybe his only equal when it comes to
fantasy rankers. And Evan Abrams, our regular director of research,
the man who signs authentic jerseys filled with stats he
(02:40):
spews on the show.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
We're going to get to him in a second.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
As a reminder, The Favorite podcast is presented by BET
three sixty five and New BET three six five customers
get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets. When
you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites,
deposit ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can use on spreads to those player props.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Features, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
At bet three six five, must be twenty one or
older than present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
restrictions apply. All right, Simon, I want to start with
you because we had McShay on the show about a
(03:27):
week ago and he mentioned something about Ashton Genty, the
running back from Boise State who everyone agrees is a
singular talent except for maybe Matthew Friedman, and his draft
prospects have been rising. I know Raybon has a lot
(03:49):
of thoughts on Genty. I know Evan has been combing
the catacombs for research on Gent. A lot of opinions
about j who seems to be of a pivot point
in this draft. Give me and give the audience our
listeners the intel that you started hearing after.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Mcshae came on the show and talked about genty.
Speaker 4 (04:13):
Yeah, I'll give tons of credit to mcshagh where he
came on here, and again my ears perked up because
I had heard people talk a little bit about gent
going outside the top ten, and he was priced that
way right when he was on here.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
He was over under eight and a half pick eight
and a half, and.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
The over I believe was like plus one point fifty
at the time, so you know, minus two hundred on
the under of eight and a half at that point,
it was something around there.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
He came on here and talked about.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
The possibility of him going to the Patriots, which at
the time was sixteen to one. Now it's four to one,
you know, a week later, so he was really head
of the market. I took a large position on it
just because I believe what he was saying. I love
the Gente talent. I think what really came down to
what me and you talked about just the fact that
teams have overreacted, in my opinion, to what happened with
(05:02):
the Eagles last year in Saquon. Teams think now they
think they're running back away where it's just it's never
that easy, right cheat. We always joke about that it's
not just one piece. For most teams, that was a
very unique situation, but in the NFL, we've seen that
these teams really do believe that. Now you know, we're
sitting here a week later, he might not go to Patriots,
but all of a sudden, the Jaguars are that fifth pick,
(05:23):
the trade out position has become the hot bet, and
he is now minus two fifty to go Genti at
pick five, which is crazy to think that, you know,
just a week ago he wasn't even supposed to go
in the top ten. Now it's big money minus money
that he's going to be a pick five. And to me,
(05:44):
I have two big things I need to happen that
I bet on. I need Sanders to go top ten.
That'd be very profitable for me because I've just been
betting really high plus numbers.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Just in case everyone isn't hasn't been listening, You mean
shoud or Sanders.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
Shador Sanders, Yes, and genty to be a top five pick, Like,
as long as he goes under that six and a half,
you know, if he slips past the Raiders, I'm gonna
take a big negative on the day. It's really my
largest position, and it's you know, the type of thing
where everyone takes position for different reasons. I mainly took
a position just because every scout I talked to said
(06:20):
he was their number three, number two prospect, every single
one I talk to, Chad. So if I'm getting that info,
and then someone like Todd mcshaye comes on here and
says what he says and then goes on a bunch
of other big mainstream shows and start saying the same
thing that what he's hearing is gent going top five.
I feel very lucky that we got him in here
early and I was able to bet it really before
(06:41):
anyone else, And it's like that's the dream, snare.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
I told you, I bet it the whole weekend.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
So when people ask about the draft in my betting
style with it, I do bet a lot of stuff,
but I try to find one or two edges and
just lean into it hard, like really take a position
on it, and then I get caught every now and then,
like me, Chad knows the story. Bryce on my worst
call ever. I just I never thought in any world
he'd be number one pick. It does happen. So I'm
(07:05):
not telling you everyone to go out there for your
life season here on gent being a top five pick.
We all sit here and we talk with different people.
But at the end of the day, like Chris and
I'm sure Evan can attest to it, it's a guessing
game the in the day, right we're playing off people's mocks.
So I do feel confident chat. But you know the deal, brother,
I didn't sleep last night. It's a lot of nerves
because you're just you're betting on the what if, not
(07:28):
so much what you.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Know, Ray Bund, You've been loving genty for a long time.
You guys have been talking about this. How do you
feel about this movement?
Speaker 5 (07:39):
It'll expected it, I think, I know, me and Evnant
have been kind of talking about kind of taking like
looking at that top of the board, we didn't there
was so much uncertainty, even going back throughout the whole process,
kind of take what's the second most likely think? I know,
Dan back and I talked about gent in March to
the Jaguars. I think it was something ridiculous fifty to
(08:00):
one or something like they already there was nowhere near
what it is now. So I think one of the
things with the draft, if if you've been betting it
like throughout the process, you're probably in a great spot
right now, is Simon alluded to.
Speaker 6 (08:15):
But now is the time when you really, really, I.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
Think, want to fade the consensus, like it's not the
time to bet an actor denty. He's but the reason
he's there is he as he should be is because
look at the t leaves. This is a bad quarterback class.
This is a bad draft class in general. Acording to
most scouts, teams don't have more than probably ten to
fifteen first round grades on guys in this whole draft.
(08:44):
So what you're seeing is the best players. The cream
is rising to the top, and the best players are
Travis Hunter, ABDW. Carter, and Ashta GenZ. In my opinion,
cam Ward the Titans are just like, oh man, Will
Levis on his knee.
Speaker 6 (09:00):
We can't do that again. So we got it. But
cam Ward's not.
Speaker 5 (09:03):
He's not the fourth best, you know, prospect in this
class and probably somebody like Mason Graham or something like that.
So it's not surprising at all with Gens rising. But
I don't think now is the time you want to
be investing in him. I think now is the time
where you start hitting up these hype guys and kind
of fading the hype of guys like Banks, who like
(09:25):
nothing changed, and he's all of a sudden, you know,
like a mock mocks him number six and now his
over unders like number seven, where it was what Evan
was like in the twenties or thirteen. It was just
thirteen just yesterday at Plus money, and now it's like
seven and a.
Speaker 6 (09:40):
Half at some books. So you just got to kind
of fade the hype now.
Speaker 5 (09:43):
But Gens is there because he's he's I think he's
a top five prospect in a week class.
Speaker 1 (09:49):
All right, before we get to Banks, and we're talking
about Calvin Banks, the offensive tackle from Texas whose numbers
are moving up and his odds are shrinking, Evan I
want and we're going to get to that conversation. Before
we came out of the air, you started talking about
what some books have been saying about their positioning and
(10:10):
what they need tonight.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
Related to Genty, some of this is universal.
Speaker 7 (10:14):
I've heard from a few different ones, but the quote
is basically, they're hoping that gent falls out of the
top five, and everything else they'll figure out later. It
just seems like everyone has invested in that, whether it's
at four, at five, top five. I've even heard some
people say, hey, let's take a shot at three. I
just think what Raybond said, most talented players one, two, three, Carter.
Speaker 8 (10:35):
Hunter eats Genty at the top.
Speaker 7 (10:37):
So I just think in a class where the offensive
skill position players, including the quarterbacks, are being questioned all
over the place, he's just not being questioned. He's one
of the more talented running backs we've seen even enter
the NFL in the last few years. So I just
think it's becoming a what do I want to give
up to move up to get him or just let
(10:59):
someone take the talented guy. So I think right now,
if you're giving like gambling advice on this, like hours
before the draft, I don't think you can invest much
into him, because again, even at three sixty five right now,
under six and a half is like minus five fifty.
There's just hard to even invest in those areas and
minus two fifty again, and even in the last twenty
four hours that five slot, he's gone from one to
(11:21):
seventy to two hundred.
Speaker 8 (11:22):
To two fifty. It just keeps moving up. So it
seems to be the consensus. Honestly.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
Yeah, the movement on a lot of these players has
been pretty insane. The other player where there's a ton
of movement really on his draft position is shud Or Sanders,
quarterback from Colorado ray Bound. What have you seen and
why do you think this is moving so much?
Speaker 7 (11:47):
So?
Speaker 5 (11:48):
Yeah, to start the process, there was a time when
Shor Sanders was expected to be the number one overall pick.
Then he kind of settled in as the you know,
the consensus number two two for a while, and then
I think, you know, he worked out for some teams
and started sliding a bit, But I just don't think that.
Speaker 6 (12:10):
Again.
Speaker 5 (12:10):
So, the way the draft works for people that are
unfamiliar is teams have their draft boards and they kind
of rate their prospects by round. So they'll be like,
all right, you know, we have ten players for the
first round. Grade now that's thirty two have to go
in the first round. But I think it's a situation
where a lot of teams have a second round or
(12:31):
even lower grade on a Shade or Sanders, and so
you're just seeing them fall. And I think it's interesting
because if you look back at the last ten years
or so, quarterbacks that go in the first round, they
only go to teams that they've done a top thirty
workout for the only time that didn't happen in the
(12:53):
first round was to in the COVID year where I
think he sent the tape workout in to the Dolphins
or something like that.
Speaker 6 (13:01):
Should or Dark all these guys could fall.
Speaker 5 (13:04):
Like I think cam Ward is pretty safe, but I
don't think should or Sanders is a great fit in Pittsburgh.
I know people are talking about the intangibles, but that's
because everyone's just it's they're just looking at team needs
where we don't really know the grades that these teams
have on guys, but just reading between the lines, no
(13:25):
one seems in a rush or no one seems kind
of pressed to take or to to to trade up.
So that tells you what these kind of you know,
what they feel about the quarterback class and just the
class in general. No one's been able to trade period
because everyone wants to trade back because it's better to
just take a bunch of shots because no one really
likes anyone, so I should always just kind of included
(13:47):
in that. I think I think the issue with him
is arm strength, uh and that and and that's it.
That would be a real issue for Pittsburgh, which is
why I don't think he goes twenty one, or if
he doesn't go there, you might just see the second
round play out like the thought a month ago or
even a couple of weeks ago, that the first round
would play out where you know Cleveland, it's between Cleveland
and the Giants. You know who gets Shudor and who
(14:08):
gets Jackson Dark Because just the quarterbacks as a whole
are kind of kind of falling, and if other guys
are rising, I think it's just kind of fake hype
to make up for the fact that you know, Shador
was at one point expected to go number two. So
now you're seeing like, oh, well, maybe mill Road takes
his place. They're like, it's like, no, just no one
likes any of these guys. Cam Ward is the best
quarterback and he's met Like I heard a scout say
(14:32):
Mason Rudolph Mason Rudolph would be the number three quarterback
in this class. So that tells you what people think
about this quarterback class.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Well, Simon, you just said that you're heavily invested in
Shadoor top ten.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
How did you get there?
Speaker 3 (14:49):
Just because of the numbers? It was most books yesterday.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
Moved to ten and a half at plus three hundred.
I said, okay, I'll take a position, and then it
goes to fourteen and a half.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
Chap plus three hundred.
Speaker 4 (15:00):
Got to take another position, I guess, And then it
gets up the twenty one and a half and it goes, okay,
well we're at this point now.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
It's not as juiced up, right.
Speaker 4 (15:08):
I think the twenty and a half was minus one
p fifteen when I first saw it, So you know
you're not getting that crazy value obviously with the plus number.
But still bet it just because of how much is moved.
I could easily be caught here chat. But my bet
is simply on desperation. And you know these teams act
confident insecure, but we've seen teams panic time and time
(15:28):
again when this draft starts, and it is because so
many of these guys are thinking future, right, Like if
you're a GM Sanders might extend you another year or
two of a life because you got this young kid
in there, right, You got the young quarterback, and it's
all about potential, Like this is someone that you know.
People I respect have him great as their number one quarterback.
(15:48):
So when I see that, I'm just like, Okay, all
it takes is one team to love the kid. That's
That's what I'm betting on, one team to love them.
They finally take a position, they move either to take
them or they take them to the draft.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Spot have.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
So my view of this class is like when I've
talked to scouts chat, it's been they love next year.
So most that's the biggest issue for this class right
now is next year's class looks like a jugger or not.
It looks like the year before right, like you might
have one, two, maybe even three legit QB one all
pros where this class, like Chris just said, we would
(16:23):
all be shocked if cam Ward ends up being an
All pro. I think he could be talented. I think
he could be a pro bowler, but like we've heard,
the ceiling for him is like what people compare him
through Steve McNair. That would be insane if he could
reach out potential, but the odds are so slim where
the next year's class, there's feels like there's a couple
of guys that have a lot more potential. So that's
(16:43):
been interesting to me chat talking to these different teams
where it's like, Okay, the Browns, they do need a quarterback,
like Chris just said, they might be confident in just
waiting to the second round taking Millrow. They might have
a different grade than we all know on Sanders, right,
they might have him below Dart and Milrow. So that's
what's so funnering about the betting market. It's like you're
hearing so many teams super negative. Are you hearing much
(17:05):
positive chat about Sanders?
Speaker 7 (17:07):
No?
Speaker 4 (17:07):
And that's for a good reason, right, So that's why
i love making these type of bets. I'm betting on
that dark horse team that's just not saying a word,
like the Atlanta Falcons last year taking Pendix when they
did right, no one saw it coming.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
That's kind of what I'm banking on here.
Speaker 4 (17:20):
So yeah, it's it's really fun where like you know,
the Rams, I've taken a position on them to take
Sanders at fifty to one, because I could see in
some crazy world McVeigh loves him.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
We want to know. So there's always teams like that.
I'll do that chat. But it's like, do I've inside info?
Speaker 4 (17:36):
No? If I did, people we'd be we'd be going
crazy on here right now. But yeah, the Sanders chatter
to me is interesting. It's all negative the last two
three days before the draft. Zero positive. And that's very
telling that there are teams out there that love them.
They're just playing the game right now.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
How do we get here?
Speaker 8 (17:53):
Here's what.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
None of this makes sense to me, and it's so stupid.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
And these are these are billion dollar franchises, right, These
are not in insignificant businesses that are flying under the radar.
And these are decisions that have generational impacts on the
success of these teams. The revenue these teams can drive,
(18:19):
the fandom of these teams, the profile of these teams.
These are massive decisions. Shedroy Sanders during the college football season,
everybody's like, Oh, this guy's gonna be the number one pick.
There wasn't even a question, right, it was like consensus.
He's the best, He's the guy we want. It's not
(18:42):
like cam Ward, who had a great year at Miami
was that different of a quarterback at Washington State? He
just did it against you could argue nominally better competition.
It's not like the ACC was so much better than.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
The pack twelve.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
So why is this thing so fucking flawed? It is
so stupid. The entire decision making process. To me, it
just feels like Evan, it just feels like we're throwing darts.
How are we making any decisions here with any confidence.
Speaker 7 (19:17):
I think people started, and this is just my opinion,
and you guys can disagree or agree. I think they
started meeting with Shador and that's what ended up happening.
Like I think you were there, people started to get
like a one on one experience of talking through the playbook,
talking through different things, maybe hearing what he had to
say on some of these things.
Speaker 8 (19:37):
That's when this started to move.
Speaker 7 (19:38):
Like, no one's done almost anything on the field, No
one's done almost anything to move anything really, aside from
having conversations with these players, looking at tape on these
players and trying to make let's call it one hundred
million dollar decisions for billion dollar franchises, right, And I
think he's moved from three and a half in terms
of his draft position all the way up to twenty
(19:58):
one and a half, and at the moment you've got,
you know, maybe your top eight mock drafters, four or
five of them completely out of the first round, while
the other one is like Pittsburgh as shrug emoji. And
that's kind of what the other person has said, because
at this point, no one is saying, like Simon said
that they like him.
Speaker 8 (20:16):
It's all negative.
Speaker 7 (20:17):
Energy leading up to the draft, which is completely moving
his number up. So I mean, personally today, what I
would do to bet on it. I mean, I'd probably
take a stab on that top ten. But right now
the best odds is three to one, So I mean,
maybe New Orleans are ten to one and it all
being just a smoke screen. And you know, we heard
the car stuff yesterday which was completely strange, completely odd,
(20:41):
like they have no answers, they won't have an answer
before the draft, and now we say, well, they need
a quarterback, so at ten to one, that would probably
be the way I look at it. But you're right, Chad,
I mean it's really really strange considering I think it's
just movement off of conversations and kind of the GMS
and coaches being played awful a little bit like that.
I just don't think they want the circus.
Speaker 5 (21:04):
I think this is this is all just all of
the draft stuff, and the movement is media generated and
prognostication generated. Like I don't think that these teams are
necessarily you know here like kind of I don't think
there's any I don't think they're doing it wrong. I
(21:25):
think I think they probably knew the whole time where
their draft board it was, and then it wasn't until
people really started laying things out and everyone was kind
of waiting for some domino to for like O, I
wish there was a trade so like we could kind
of get some sense of like who's gonna go where
Literally guys are moving like halfway up and down the
board off one mock draft and we're day of the draft,
(21:48):
Day of the draft, and dudes who I couldn't even
name put out a mock like I'm not like you
know what I mean, Like there's just too many of them,
but one guy it's not even like okay.
Speaker 6 (21:59):
Overwhelming them my mocks are doing this.
Speaker 5 (22:01):
It's like, okay, well this guy who does mox and
like finished in the top ten that one year, but
this guy here, so we got to move him from
thirteen to six. It's just no one knows anything. The
team's new all along, I think. But I think media,
first of all, we're a little we're always gonna be
infatuated with quarterbacks.
Speaker 6 (22:20):
And when it's early.
Speaker 5 (22:22):
In the process and you know, you're kind of looking at, okay, well,
quarterbacks at the top of the board. To Simer's point,
you're kind of betting on a desperation. But as we've
gotten I think closer and closer to the draft, I
just think we're kind of seeing a lack of desperation
in the actions. Like it's not just like I don't
(22:43):
think it's just like a teams are. It's like a
smoke screen. And you know, I think the fact that
no movement has been able to happen, no trades have
been able to happen, just tells you that teams don't
have a lot of first round grades, and no one's
really trying to trade up for anyone, and everyone's kind
of comfortable where they are just letting them word fault
to them because there's not really a lot of upside
(23:03):
and less the real reports have been Hunter and Gentee
and cam Ward, So it makes sense the top quarterback
who's probably in a tier above everyone else, and then
just top prospects. So I think I think that I
think the team's knew awlong, but you know, it was
just kind of the and the media hype drives it,
and it's still driving this crazy movement and we're hours out.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
McShay alluded to this last week. There really is no
upside for any GM, any scout, any executive to give
anybody in the media who covers the draft any real information.
So it's all dependent upon us believing that somebody has
a good enough relationship that they're getting directional content. They're
(23:54):
never going to get real content, and more than likely
they're getting shitty content. And so you know, Raybund, you
mentioned Calvin Banks earlier in the show. This is a
guy who the tackle from Texas, was not listed anywhere
as the top overall offensive line prospect. It has been
Will Campbell, Will Campbell, Will Campbell, Will Campbell. All of
(24:16):
a sudden, Evan, you can tell us the numbers Calvin
Banks like could be going as high as number six
to the Raiders at this point. What has the movement
been like for him, but he's a very good example
of Raybon. What you're talking about, Evan, give us the numbers.
Speaker 7 (24:36):
Yeah, it's been consistent movement, honestly, and each week me
and Raybond do the Action podcast. Banks has been like
the conversation every time because it's been steady. So he
opened a twenty four and a half even just yesterday,
I'm about three sixty five. He was at thirteen and
a half, but ends up thirteen and a half over
plus three fifty, ends up moving to now seven and
(24:56):
a half at over at even odds. So I mean,
at at this point, we're just trying to I don't
want to call it randomly, but we're just selecting offensive
tackles at this point. To put into that, I've seen
member with that sixth lot. As soon as we heard
genty going five, I think everyone is trying to figure
out what the heck the Raiders are going to do,
especially because it's a new Raiders. There's Brady involved, there's Cara.
(25:19):
I just think we don't know this Raiders team, so
I think trying to figure out what's going on there.
But Banks a ton of mock drafts. If genty doesn't
go five, I think he'll go six. I think, but
if he goes five, I think Membo Banks are both
the possibilities there. But I think if I look at
it right, I think Banks has been the biggest mover
(25:41):
up out of almost anyone. Second's probably McMillan, but right
now it's Banks. The numbers are crazy. I sent a
screenshot to Raybon and our producer Matt Mitchell last night.
Banks was minus twelve hundred to go top ten at
a certain book. At that point, it's just the movement's insane.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
And nothing has happened. That's what's crazy.
Speaker 5 (25:59):
That's why I tell people should like Evan, you were
talking about Banks being like the number two tackle at
what like ten to one odds and greater than that.
You were high on Banks when he was still people
were still mocking him as a guard.
Speaker 6 (26:13):
Now all of a sudden he's at the top tackle.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Like what this is?
Speaker 5 (26:16):
Nothing has happened, no one, He didn't block anyone, Like
the what what are we doing?
Speaker 8 (26:25):
Well?
Speaker 1 (26:25):
This is what I love about the draft, And I
do want to get to Simon. You've laid out your positions,
but Ray Bond and Evan, I want I want you
to recap positions for people Shamar Stewart defensive end from
Texas A and m you know, he's got four and
a half career sacks in three seasons, but he tested
(26:46):
as the best athlete at the Combine. He's either Mike Mamula,
who old heads will remember, Mike Mamula who was a
defensive end at Boston College who had done thing, went
to the Combine and all of a sudden became a
top ten pick for the Philadelphia Eagles because his athleticism
(27:08):
so wowed every single scout there. Or you know the
Wall Street Journal, which you guys know I love the
sports section of the Wall Street Journal. They had a
story this morning about Stuart where you know, people are
grading him as anything from Javon Curse, who was an
athletic freak who played for the Titans, to Miles Garrett
who is going to be in the Hall of Fame
for the Cleveland Browns. But the guy didn't do anything
(27:32):
in college. And the response you get is, well, it
wasn't a scheme, it wasn't a system that was conducive
to him doing anything. Why can anyone say that and
everyone accepts that without any pushback whatsoever. If the guy
is that good of an athlete in college football, What
(27:54):
coach isn't building the system to take advantage of a
guy who can dominate that. You don't make like a
guy like that a fucking compliment on the defensive line.
You make him the focal point of the defensive line.
This makes no sense to me, Simon, explain it to me.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
Because you're going it from it from just one perspective
where it it does work out that where where you're
taking the potential and I get whe you're coming from
check because there are, in my opinion, way more missus
than hits. But when you do hit on the right
type of potential, it's like you got an all time
or all pro. Like my favorite ever always be the
Jordan of Malata, Like a guy played rugby. Wasn't nobody
(28:38):
The Eagles had them on their board. So we can
get this kid in the seventh round. He's some Australian
guy that plays rugby. He's eighteen, he's biggest shit. We'll
turn him into a left tackle. Now he's probably number one,
number two best left tackle. I know what you're saying, Jet,
and I'm saying, Dad's drafted on potential where like you're
saying the first round. To me, I'm with you that
(28:59):
the risk isn't the same where you're you're taking a
guy a potential in the first round of that greater risk.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
It is not the same.
Speaker 4 (29:05):
But these teams talk themselves into it, Chad, because they
see these guys work out and they say, well, we
have much better coaching, Like right, there's not this kid's
not wasting time going to class. He's going to be
in here work and putting the work in. We're like,
you're saying, it doesn't work that way.
Speaker 3 (29:21):
So I'm with you. I hate it, but I get
why they.
Speaker 4 (29:24):
Do it because for every you know, four or five misses,
the one thing that does it on the one guy.
It's it's huge in football, right, It's it's game changing potential.
So I'm with you, it's it's tough. But you know,
there's this draft class, like we're talking about here at
Chris said it's a weak draft class.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
To me, I love this draft class because they're they're all.
Speaker 4 (29:45):
Feels like the same type of level, Like you can
get really good guys at pick forty two, forty five,
as these teams reaching right now at pick seven, pick six,
So to me.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
It's really interesting.
Speaker 4 (29:57):
Like we're talking about here, like Will Campbell, some people
chat don't even have him as a first rounder because
of his arms.
Speaker 3 (30:03):
Like that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (30:04):
This is crazy that this game might go pick four
and you have some scouts to have a second round
grade on them because of potential. So yeah, it's this
is gonna be a crazy draft class. I can tell
you that from just to get go, you.
Speaker 6 (30:17):
Get some great second rounders in the first round this year.
Speaker 7 (30:20):
I think that's true though. I think that's why the
trading back is so interesting right now, because I think
other teams are looking at the board and saying to themselves, Okay,
well we can draft at eleven or twelve or thirteen,
or we can try to double up and triple up
and get more players. Because I do think it's a
little bit level, Like look at the defensive line. You
have like seven, eight, nine defensive linemen who could be
(30:40):
going in the first round. And I'm sure team's grades
are all over the place, like even Stewart is fifth
or sixth if you look at order on some mock drafts.
So it's just about preference. I think a preference draft
is a real good way to kind of cap it.
Speaker 5 (30:53):
Yeah, and you're gonna you're going to take more risks
in a year, So Stuart, like listen.
Speaker 6 (31:00):
Top quarterback and in the second quarterback. Definitely some teams.
Speaker 5 (31:04):
I don't think I have a top fifty grade on
schuer Sanders Tat McMillan, the same thing was said about him,
he's the consensus number one receiver, and then the minute
they said that about him, the next day, all of
a sudden, teams in the top six are one a
draft that's that's complete damage control. Like to your point
about you know, there's a lot of the media is
kind of being used as you know, mouthpieces. So that's
(31:26):
why I'm just kind of like anti you just got
to kind of fade the consensus. And the earlier you
start doing it in the process, the better positions you're
gonna have. But oh man, this is just a great
a great draft for kind of going against the grain
because I think teams legit have like eight to twelve
first round grades if that, so it could go any
(31:48):
which way.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Well, I want to get into Raybon to what your
thoughts are right now. I just say one more thing
before I ask you that question, is if the Bears
draft Shamar Stewart, I am gonna freaking lose it because
we know the Bears need a defensive end and if
this is how they decide to spend their.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Draft capital, I will freak out.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
Also for pouring one out rip Steve McMichael nineteen eighty five,
Bears legend, Ray Bond, give me your.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
I just gonna say real quick chat.
Speaker 4 (32:17):
But that's our point though, is you can get a
d M in the second round. That's why like this
class it's so fun.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Let's get Stewart in the second round, number ten.
Speaker 4 (32:27):
That's all just say for your drafting style, like you
not wanting to draft on something that only gets four
sacks in college. You don't want to draft that potential.
There are more than half the GM's are legit your
drafting style, Chad, so you're not an island there. So
people might think Chad's being off basis he's not.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Like.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
There's a lot of guys that think the exact same way.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
But there's always gonna be that young punk, right, the
new guy with this computer that's going to come in
and be like, no, the numbers say this, and they
say that, So yeah, I just want to give both
perspective that I agree with Chad that I draft the
same way. I would never draft someone that's not a
football player first.
Speaker 3 (32:59):
That to me is the biggest thing. I wanted an athlete,
all that, but I want a football player first. So
I think Chad's the same way.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
Listen, Chad loves hitting home runs. Chad loves being a
genius for finding a diamond in the rough. I'm looking
at three people that I have hired over the course
of my career who had no business doing any of
the jobs that I hired him for, and it turns
out they were genius. Genius moves home runs. But Chad
(33:27):
knows that home runs are really hard to hit. And
Chad knows that at the end of the day, if
you're building a team, you've got to have a lot
of people who are really good at what they do
and have proven that they're really good at what they
do and have proven they can deliver at high numbers
over an extended period of time if you're going to
spend the money.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
Chad understands these things.
Speaker 1 (33:51):
Shamar Stewart, Shamar Stewart, Chad would not be making Shamar
Stewart a first round pick Raybond, give me your best
bets right now.
Speaker 5 (34:00):
Okay, so we're doing this, you know, all the day
of the draft, so a bunch of over unders are
kind of going crazy. So those are the ones I've
been attacking today. So I'll run through some pretty quick.
Calvin Banks Junior over picked seven and a half at
even money. He's still probably the consensus across all mocks.
(34:21):
He's still at thirteen, but I think Ken is probably
a much more realistic even if you want to buy
to the hype, but it's all hype. Then I got
Ted McMillan over picked twelve and a half at plus
one sixty. I think he's at best probably a fifty
to fifty shot to go to the Cowboys. We don't
even know if they prefer him to Golden And I
(34:45):
think I think the stuff about the Jags and the Raiders,
that was all just damage control after you had and
like mock drafters saying they had they had low grades
on him, and you had teams report teams saying they
barely had him cracked in the top fifty. So I
think that's great value. Then I got Will Johnson under
(35:10):
pick twenty four and a half. I think that the
slide has been too crazy. I mean, he's he was
going in the top ten at some point and nothing's
really changed, But all of a sudden, you know, now
he's like he's not even gonna crack the top twenty four.
Speaker 6 (35:24):
I think that's crazy. And then mill Roe over picked
thirty eight and a half.
Speaker 5 (35:29):
I mean, we're talking about the QB two falling out
of the first round. I think it's more of a
indictment on the whole quarterback class than the fact that,
like Anthony Richardson, light is gonna dart up people's draft boards.
So faded him and one more a mecca of Bucah.
Speaker 6 (35:49):
This one's probably makes me the most nervous.
Speaker 5 (35:52):
But over pick twenty six and a half at plus
one twenty two, or over pick twenty nine and a
half at plus two fifteen. I just most times I've
seen him mocked have been like pick thirty thirty one,
thirty two, or just out of the first round completely,
because there's still a lot of potential to kind of
jockey for that jockeying for position with the quarterback situations,
(36:14):
and there's still I think more defensive players that there's
gonna be runs on positions, you know, like corner and
Edgdress kind of come into an end where teams are
going to feel comfortable kind of waiting on him, so
like him to not crack the top thirty either. I
think in general, I think I think offensive skill positions
are a bit inflated in this draft, top to bottom
(36:36):
in the first rounround.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
Ev I want to get your your latest as well.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
But let me ask the group right now, based on
what we're hearing about Sanders, what you just said about
Milroe Raybond, Like, if the number two rated passer isn't
even may fall out of the first round, what do
we think of under two and a half quarterbacks taken
in the first round.
Speaker 8 (37:04):
I'm a fan.
Speaker 5 (37:04):
It's kind of yeah, it's it's It's probably just not
the best way to attack it, because there is the
possibility that, you know, they just if one team trades up,
then another team might have to trade up just to
make sure because New Orleans is luming.
Speaker 6 (37:20):
But yeah, I think it's probably more likely than not.
Speaker 5 (37:23):
That it's round two is what we thought round one
was gonna be, and no one moves like anywhere.
Speaker 8 (37:30):
The interesting thing is, I think I was just saying
I think Raymond hit on that though.
Speaker 7 (37:33):
I've been betting this draft with him for like over
a month now, and I don't think I've touched that
market of the two and a half quarterbacks because I
think there's just different ways to play it. But if
I had to bet it, i'd probably say under two
and a half just going through some of my bets, though,
I've been betting SEC players over fourteen and a half
for a while now. It's under two to one, under
(37:53):
one to two, so it's minus one ninety five minus
one ninety I don't have to go through all the players,
but I do think fifteen is the record, it would
tie the record, and I see at least fifteen sixteen
getting in there. So that's one bet I like I
was with raybon on Banks. Listen, I've got Banks top
ten at like seven to one, six to one, So
at this point over seven and a half is going
(38:14):
to be the way that I'm at least going to
get back into the market to play it the other
way a little bit. Some first round bets I like,
So I've been on Kenneth Grant for a long time now.
I got him at minus two thirty minus two fifty.
He's up to like three fifty at some places, but
there is a book out there that'll let you like
parlay first round picks, so I think there's at least
(38:35):
an ability to put him in a parlay to potentially
do something.
Speaker 8 (38:39):
The other one I like is Chavon Revel. He was
three to one yesterday to get in the first round quarterback.
It's now plus one eighty.
Speaker 7 (38:46):
I think anything above like plus one fifty range is
still something I would consider. And the other one I
keep betting and listen. I don't know because the odds
keep coming down, but I'm still a fan. Is Hampton
to be the second running back. I just have him
overson in almost every scenario.
Speaker 8 (39:01):
It's down to like minus two fifty. I've seen minus
two thirty.
Speaker 7 (39:05):
I still think at twenty at Denver, and even if
they both fall to the end of the first round
or second round, I still see Hampton as a better option.
So right now those are probably the ones I would consider.
I will say this, yesterday I took some dart throws
on McMillan at nine and McMillan at ten, complete dart
throws eighteen to one at nine, twenty five to one
(39:28):
at ten, they are both now sixteen to one and under,
so him kind of falling or being I know, the
trade up is kind of crazy at this point, but
in those slots seem to be getting some momentum. I
have some specials, but we can talk about that in
a second. Those are direct from bet three sixty five,
but right now, again a lot has moved, but those
are probably the bets.
Speaker 2 (39:50):
Simon. Anything to add other than what we've discussed, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (39:55):
I would say from the beginning of the show what
Chris said about, you know, all this crazy movements off
people's very late mock drafts of the last couple of days,
embrace it like they're talking about the banks play go
against the norm.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
And that quarterback movement, to me is a.
Speaker 4 (40:13):
Incredibly interesting chat because it was up to what minus
three point fifty the over on quarterbacks in the first round.
So that is either they're moving that off air, or
someone incredibly smart with a lot of money and know
and knows what's going on in the league took a
position the books respected and moved off it. Now more
often not in the draft chat, they move off air.
(40:35):
So I'm probably gonna be patient. I'm gonna hope the
public ups following and I'm probably going to bet the
over two and a half and I'll probably bet the
over three and a half just because i know next
year's draft class is really strong with the quarterbacks. But
we've seen these teams trade back into the first round
to get the quarterback just because of the fifth year option, right, Like,
you know how many times have we seen that happen.
(40:56):
I'll bank on that, But I do agree where it's
like we're gonna know pretty right if Sanders falls to
twenty one, Chad, I'm probably gonna eat that, eat that bet.
Speaker 3 (41:04):
That's probably a dead bet because if.
Speaker 4 (41:06):
Pittsburgh or any of these teams pass on him and
he falls out of the first I'm gonna need to
get really lucky on Dart and mill Row to hit
this bet.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
So it really is a bet.
Speaker 4 (41:16):
Where I'm like I said in the beginning of the show,
I'm heavy on betting on Sanders, heavy on gent Ye.
I need a little bit of luck with Sanders here
because every move I've made it's going against me.
Speaker 3 (41:26):
It just keeps going down.
Speaker 4 (41:27):
So yeah, the people in the know, I know, Christmas
to say something here that I might be way off
on Sanders.
Speaker 7 (41:33):
No.
Speaker 6 (41:33):
What I was gonna say is.
Speaker 5 (41:36):
Another position that I'm kind of really strong on is
Sanders not to go to Pittsburgh. I think even people
that are mocking him there, And that's what a lot
of the books are kind of moving off to Simon's point.
They're just saying, like, Pittsburgh just needs a quarterback and
we don't know what else to do, so we're not
going to be right. Yeah, he just makes the least
sense from a skill perspective, giving the receipts they have.
(42:01):
And I know now they're talking about trade and pickings,
so who knows, but I think that it's very Again,
he didn't work out for them. It just doesn't happen
that teams end up going to a quarterback who they
didn't do any pre draft work with. And on top
of that, Pittsburgh could have a deal with Aaron Rodgers
in place, and they just don't want to tip their hand,
(42:21):
and Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to deal with like, you know,
more camp and media questions and stuff and pickings questions, and.
Speaker 6 (42:28):
So they might who knows, but I just don't.
Speaker 5 (42:31):
I think that's a great way to fade some of
like this in a smart way is like Giants plus
six fifty you can get his high to draft standards,
and the Browns.
Speaker 6 (42:42):
You could still get a plus five fifty.
Speaker 5 (42:44):
If Pittsburgh passes on him, the second round might literally
just be what we thought the first round was going
to be for most of the process, where it's the
Browns or the Giants and one of them takes Dart
and one of them takes Standards. And I think that's
a really smart way to attack it, because I just
do not think that that Pittsburgh makes a lot of
sense for uh should.
Speaker 8 (43:06):
Ing with that thought process.
Speaker 7 (43:08):
Milroe probably slides as well, which is why the thirty
eight and a half that you posted I think is
interesting because if you believe that they slide, he's gonna
slide as well.
Speaker 6 (43:16):
Yeah, we're gonna talk about shock.
Speaker 5 (43:17):
We're here and like Milroe teams have probably second third
round grade on him. But yeah, like if you just
look at the draft order, who's really trying to trade
up for him?
Speaker 6 (43:26):
Even and that like it just.
Speaker 5 (43:27):
Doesn't none of this quarter Quarterbacks are usually just inflated.
There's the one odd year where sometimes a bunch of
quarterbacks go, but generally speaking, and books can choose who
they post, and like you don't see over unders on
like Tonrely or guys like fringe first rounders that you
could that would kind of take the place of some
of these inflated guys.
Speaker 6 (43:47):
So just don't get quotam in a hype's you would.
Speaker 3 (43:50):
Agree that, Chris, there's so many teams you wouldn't be shocked.
Speaker 4 (43:52):
Like the Jets taking Sanders at seven ohet, we wouldn't
shock you just because they're a desperate team with a
crazy owner. So like that, there's a lot of that
where it's like there are teams who need quarterbacks justin fields.
He's not the answer to the Jets future, right, So
I do think that part's interesting when there was a
bunch of dark horse teams willn't even know about that.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
Could just, you know, take one of these quarterbacks.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
Guys in less than twenty four hours, we're going to
know the answers.
Speaker 2 (44:18):
Unless we're going to be we're going to be geniuses.
Speaker 8 (44:21):
We might not know, Yeah, sud we may not know,
but yes, a lot.
Speaker 6 (44:28):
About any quarterback you talked about it.
Speaker 1 (44:30):
If Sor hasn't been drafted, we'll know a lot more
than we did right now.
Speaker 4 (44:34):
That's fair as Steelers just moved the minus one fifty
to take Sanders so that another mock.
Speaker 6 (44:40):
Came in and they didn't know where else that's right.
Speaker 1 (44:44):
As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
Bet three six five. New Bet three six five customers
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when
you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
At Bet three sixty five.
Speaker 1 (45:07):
Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Luisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
older and in Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next
(45:27):
episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday,
one thirty pm Eastern, talking about NFL draft grades.
Speaker 2 (45:34):
Download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get.
Speaker 1 (45:36):
Your PA's rate review, subscribe he as five stars, Say
whatever you want, feedback is it gifts?
Speaker 2 (45:40):
Un till next time, I Love you.
Speaker 8 (45:49):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.