April 30, 2025 • 50 mins
The throngs of raucous NFL Draft fans have departed Green Bay, but Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to recap all the activity in the final part of this special two-part Draft recap episode. Today, the guys go through every team across the AFC. The Browns are strong-armed into Shedeur Sanders. The Buffalo Bills' GM gets testy. The Baltimore selects their kicker of the future. Bets were won, bets were lost, and Chad and Simon are excited to dive into it all. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is
our second day in a row, the rare two first
doubleheader talking about the NFL Draft.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Today, I'm joined as always buy my co.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Host, my companion, Mike and Padre might BFF professional better
Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Hello, Simon, just.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Talking football and mate Chad nothing better? Brother?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
How good is that?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
That's how much we love it and how much we
miss it. We're doing two back to back shows about
the NFL Draft.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
We don't even do.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Back to back shows about the Super Bowl, but we're
going back to back on the draft. Yesterday we did
the NFC. Today we are doing the AFC. And here's
what's interesting to me. It's more of an indication of
what the public market everybody thinks about the differences between
the AFC and the NFC.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
In the NFC.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
There was one team that was minus money to win
their division. That was the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
In the AFC, there are three teams that are minus
money to win their division, including the Super Bowl runner
up Kansas City Chiefs, including the Baltimore Ravens and the
(01:36):
Buffalo Bills, who have the longest odds of any team
or the shortest odds of any team. I'm sorry, it's
really like, yeah, the shortest dots. They have the largest
discrepancy of any team to win their division at minus
two seventy five. So we're going to get into the
(01:58):
AFC breakdown today. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and New Bet three
sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in
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(02:21):
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(02:43):
restrictions apply, all right, So we dug deep on a
lot of the storylines yesterday. Today, we're going to go
right to the teams, and I do want to start
Simon with the Buffalo Bills minus two to seventy five
at bet three sixty five to win their division.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Before we came on, you know, there.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Were radio hosts in Buffalo who were giving Brandon being
the Bills GM a hard time because they didn't go
after a receiver. And he basically threw up his hands
and was like, what.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Do you guys want me to do?
Speaker 1 (03:16):
We averaged thirty points a game last year, Like, I
think I know what I'm doing when it comes to
building the offense.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
I was just listening to the last few minutes of
your show before I came home, waiting on here. Sound
was like twenty eighteen all.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
Over with you guys. Well we're very how so well.
Speaker 4 (03:34):
You guys were bitching in twenty eighteen about Josh Allen.
You guys wanted Josh Rosen, and now you guys are
bitching that we don't have a receiver I don't get it.
We just scored thirty points in a row for eight
straight games a year ago. I get you guys asking
why we didn't have receivers, but I don't understand it now.
You just saw us lead the league in points. When
(03:55):
you add all the postseason, no one scored more points.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
I love that he was basically came came out and said,
fuck you guys, like you don't know what the hell
you're talking about. They drafted the cornerback Maxwell Harriston in
the first round from Kentucky, who, to me, was my
favorite player in the draft because he was the guy
who was the last person that dapped up every single
player who got drafted ahead of him in the green room,
(04:21):
and then he finally got drafted at the end of
the first round. So I was just happy for him
because he seemed like a sweetheart of a guy.
Speaker 5 (04:27):
Yeah, I'll piggyback off that. Good for Brandon bing to
b flexing his muscle. He's a guy that you know,
last year we thought there would be a borderline playoff team,
and you know, I talked a ton about, you know.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
The fact that they had so much dead cap.
Speaker 5 (04:42):
I couldn't believe that much dead cap they had and
how hard that is to overcome, or you're trying to
build out a team like you're going against teams that
don't have seventy million dollars in dead cap. And I
said the following year, they'll use that money and attack
the defense. They did it in a different way, right, He's
resigned a bunch of guys that they are kind of
paying ahead time, just getting it lined up right for
their defense.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
And then he went out and just drafted a don
of defense.
Speaker 5 (05:04):
And I love that move because you know, their offense
didn't fail them last year. They shouldn't have been giving
up so many points to that Chiefs offense like that,
to me was very alarming, and that was a reason
for them to attack the defense in this offseason. And
you know the fact that they've paid starters they trust
for the future, and they've gone out defensively in this
draft and really attacked it.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
I love it.
Speaker 5 (05:25):
So, you know, minus two to seventy five, Chad, we
don't bet those type of numbers around here. So if
you want to do what I love doing, like you know,
the Chiefs are a big number. You partlay these divisional
teams together and you kind of you know, if you
want to choose the Bills to be an anchor, you
can go for it. There's a team coming up we'll
talk about that I think might give them a little
bit of a run for their money here in this
(05:47):
division this upcoming season. So yeah, two seventy five. I
think it's warranted, but I wouldn't touch that straight up.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
I wonder if you and I are thinking about the
same team, it is not the team that has the
second shortest odds to win the division, in the Miami Dolphins,
who are.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Plus five point fifty at bet three six five.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Their first pick was Kenneth Grant, the defensive tackle from Michigan.
The one of their last picks, I think it might
have been. Their last pick was no.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Their second or.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Last pick was Quinn Ewers, the quarterback from Texas in
the seventh round.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
But kind of unspectacular as a draft.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
It didn't feel like they did a ton of things
that were going to take them from that that team
that was mediocre and really can do nothing without Tua
to being a team that can challenge the Bills, or
a team I think could be on their heels in
the AFC East.
Speaker 5 (06:42):
Yeah, I think we all view the Dolphins windows closed,
and it's tough to say. I know they don't want
to hear it, but it felt like that when he
you know, when Tua came on of the scene and
they kind of had this offense built around him with
Tyreek and Waddle and they were explosive. You know, two
years ago that was the team, and every year it
(07:04):
feels like they've gotten worse. Right, losing Fangs to the Eagles.
As a coach, that was a big deal. Their defense
just simply was not as good as it was the
year before. And you know, this year, I like the
moves in the draft. Of fact, they went and got
adtackle their first pick from Michigan, right, and who knows
if Grant's gonna.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
Be a stub.
Speaker 5 (07:22):
That's a good pick, that's a safe pick. Then you
have pick thirty seven, you get a guard.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Okay, that's fine. They didn't pick again until one forty three.
Speaker 5 (07:29):
So this is like another team that like they just
didn't really have the picks because they've traded so much
in previous years and now we're kind of seeing it.
The fact that they've paid their quarterback one crazy money,
the two wide receivers crazy money, there's nothing left throughout
the team. They should just have thin team across the board.
So yeah, I think we're on the same page. Plus
five fifty. I wouldn't bet this. This should be closer
(07:52):
to plus six hundred plus six fifty than it is.
So to me, Miami, you're I'm with Chad. I think
they're the third fourth team in this division will.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
In that plus six point fifty range, the New England Patriots,
And that is interesting to me. You and I love Rabel.
He has historically being a coach that we always want
to bet on, really performs well as an underdog. He
(08:21):
is Belichickian in his understanding of the rules and how
to take advantage of them and how to squeeze every
single opportunity out of the most strategic moments of a game.
And then they go out and do the smart thing.
They draft Will Campbell, the offensive tackle from LSU, with
the fourth overall pick, and then they get a guy
(08:43):
that a lot of people love, Traveon Henderson, in the
second round.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
They're running back from.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
Ohio State, so and all of a sudden, they're starting
to build a little bit and support Drake May who
was just a baller last year. So you bring in
a guy with an attitude like Vrabel, who brings structure
to the organization, and then start building infrastructure around Drake May,
and this team just gets much better. To me, I
(09:08):
think they're better just by virtue of who's in the building.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
Yeah, I'll just start at the top of saying that.
Speaker 5 (09:14):
As a fan, I think Patriots fans should know that
all fan bases of football want them to have twenty
thirty forty years of just hell. I want you guys
to be terrible. I hope every quarterback you draft is horrible.
I just want nothing but bad things for the Patriots.
That being said, I love to hire and Rabel. We
both agree. We think Drake May has a ton of upside,
(09:35):
a ton of talent. The reason we're betting on them
to win this division is because of the year two jump.
That's something we see time and time again where a
guy comes in year one and it's on an awful
team and it looks awful and they're a bad team.
We've seen it. If they can get the right type
of talent in the door, the right coaching staff in
the door, and they can build it out, there is
(09:57):
a year two jump and a possibility of Thatmber plus
six fifty plus seven hundred. A lot of books have
the Patriots division will take that number. But like we
said the top, there's a reason that Bills are minus
two seventy five, like they are so far ahead of
this Patriots team. We would need a major, major drump
from Drake May and we need a defense to go
(10:18):
to an another level. Like Chad just said, they basically
went offensive tackle, running back, wide receiver, center. Those are
their first fourth picks, so they've kind of said, Okay,
we'll address the defense down the road, either in free
agency or in next year's draft. This year, we're going
to put an emphasis on trying to put Drake Ma
in a better position than he was in the previous season.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
So I do really like that.
Speaker 5 (10:41):
If you're a Pageots fan, you have to be happy
with this draft, even if you don't love Will Campbell
at that spot, right, why wouldn't you trade back to
pick ten with the Bears or whoever it was offering
you a pick at that spot to take someone else
another offensive lineman. You know you probably would have the
same value there, just because oh there's offensive line at
the top.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
Of this draft.
Speaker 5 (10:59):
For of all the same, right, They're all really good,
high level offensive linemen with a little bit of weaknesses
here and there that can make them never be an
all pro. And that was kind of the whole deal
heading to this draft. So I get why people are
like they reach a little bit on Campbell. That could
be true, but I think at the end of the day, it.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Was Verbel's guy.
Speaker 5 (11:16):
No one was offered them good enough pick to get
up to pick four, and you know, to me, they
nailed this draft. So yeah, I think we're on the
same page. I had that the best value to me
right now for this division, it's got to be this
Patriots team.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
What a difference in year makes simon that when the
Jets had Aaron Rodgers, we were all in and then
being the challenger brand to the Buffalo to the Buffalo Bills.
The Jets are now fourteen to one to win the division.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
No faith in justin fields.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
The operators are saying the public has they draft an
offensive tackle. Might have reached for a guy at the
seventh overall pick in the first round. They probably needed
some weapons, specifically a tight end. People thought they might
take Tyler Warren with that pick. Instead, they got a
tight end in the second round. Not a ton of
(12:13):
sort of enthusiasm or hope coming out of this draft.
Speaker 5 (12:18):
No, And you know, part of me wants to throw
a little penny on this fourteen to one because it
is such an insane number and anything could happen, right,
Josh Allen could go down two, It could go down
like there could be a bunch of different injuries this division.
Drake may could fan out and all of a sudden
the Jets aol see this division eight to nine and
eight and you had great value on betting the butt
fourteen to one. The hardest port for me eachaz is
(12:41):
Justin Fields and we talk all the time in football
the quarterback position. Yes, people can make up a million
reasons why he never won in his career that the
Bears felt of YadA, YadA, YadA, But you see a
time and time again, some of these guys just can't
turn it around without the perfect scenario. And this doesn't
feel like a perfect scenario for him. Justin Field's walking
(13:02):
to this Jets team, it still feels like a dysfunctional
organization that starts the top with their ownership and it
works all the way down.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
So yeah, first year head coach.
Speaker 5 (13:11):
And you know, Aaron Glenn's already in the news because
he's getting shipped from how he dealt with Aaron Rodgers
and all this other stuff. So this is just not
a Jets team I want to invest in. I think
you're on the same page, like it's it's a team
I assume is trying to get a top five, top
ten pick next year in the draft. Like that's how
(13:34):
they're kind of building this team out. So the books
very telling having them at fourteen.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
To one right now in this division.
Speaker 5 (13:40):
So yeah, it's it's great drafts, Like we'll get to
the draft real quick. You know, the fact that you
guys went tackle, tight end, cornerback, wide receiver, like they're
taking positions that they just they're going best available.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
They weren't really filling in needs.
Speaker 5 (13:52):
They didn't feel like they didn't drafted to draft a guy, right,
they were taking the best guys they had on their board,
which I like.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
For the Jets' future for this season. Does nothing for.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Me, by the way, you just said, you guys, what
do I have to do with the Jets.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I don't I don't even think about the Jets.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
Maybe you guys talking to media, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Oh oh, so now I'm just media. Now I'm just
that's how you see me. I'm just a media guy.
Speaker 5 (14:18):
It was more, it was more in general. It wasn't
directed that you. Usually when I go more to you,
I go Chad.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
I like the ur Chad, you, thank you.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
I appreciate that. I don't want to be lumped in
with you.
Speaker 1 (14:28):
Just how you generalize, you know, the media people, media
under attack every day as an institution. The Baltimore Ravens
minus one thirty five to win the AFC North. Look,
I know what we're going to say here. Last year,
we love the Bengals, and I'm not sure I have
(14:50):
that kind of enthusiasm for the Bengals this year. I
was pretty unimpressed with their draft, and we'll get to
that part.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
But the Ravens. The Ravens did the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Like at the end of the first round, they get
Malachi Starks from Georgia, so they had released Marcus Williams
like he's going to come in perfectly aligned with Kyle Hamilton.
That defense got better and better as the second half
of the season went on, Like I love what they do.
They had a controversial pick with Mike Green, the kid
(15:20):
from Marshall who had played at Virginia, has had sexual
assault allegations in the past. That's partially why he was
at Marshall and partially why he's dropped. But it's supposed
to be a great talent like visit team that just
they know what they're doing. They also drafted a kicker,
by the way, in case Justin Tucker is no longer available.
Speaker 5 (15:39):
Yeah, I would say that was probably the craziest part
of their draft in my opinion, then taking that kicker
because allegedly, you know, Justin Tucker might be on his
way out of the league. So that's the type of
move that it's like, Okay, they're kind of being ahead
of it, right. I think they're kind of letting us
know what they're probably going to do here, because that's
a big deal for a team like this to take
a guy, and especially you.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Know, another team that we have to say.
Speaker 5 (16:03):
They're a top five front office or at least top
five front office the last twenty five years, like they
just always make the right decisions, and even they've had
guys step down and new people step up into these
front office positions, they've carried on the legacy of a
draft a great drafting team in Baltimore. So yeah, Mike Green,
major questions, No doubt about the talent, It's all about
(16:24):
the person you know, to them that that risk was
worth it at that position. You know, I'm with you
with Chatted the fact that you know the them being
minus one thirty five, they should be like, I have
them great up to minus one fifty in this division,
So I have there is value right now on this
number if you want to take it.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
I've thrown a little bit on them at this number,
and we'll talk about the other team this division. I
think as a chance.
Speaker 5 (16:47):
But you know, the Ravens just feel like they're so
far ahead of everyone else in this division because they
just draft so well every year.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
And you're going through.
Speaker 5 (16:58):
Their major weaknesses of this team, like we say every year,
there really isn't one. Like you could say the major
questions might be defensively that is fair, but offensively we
think it'll be even better this year. Lamar gets more
comfortable in this offense. Derrick Henry obviously year two in
this team should be more comfortable. It's just they're just
so good, Like you said, they just dropped so well
(17:19):
so yeah, really impressive.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
How much more comfortable can they get? Lamar Jackson should
have been the MVP and Derreck Henry could have run
for two thousand yards as a thirty one year old
like that is peak comfort to me.
Speaker 5 (17:34):
It was, but it was also felt like there were
a couple of things missing, and it was the first
year where they really opened up the offense to Lamar
having more say and passing the ball downfield in my opinion,
So it's just ton me to see what he does
this upcoming season where you're right, you know, you probably
could have won MVP last year, probably should have Kenny
Redo that in another season, I think he can. It's
(17:55):
just didn't feel like they lost anything from last season.
They've only gained him gotten better since last year.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Cincinnati Bengals plus two twenty. I had a long rant
on the show last week about Shamar Stewart, the defensive
end from Texas A and M and look, I don't
know anything, but I know that you got a lot
of film on a guy who has not produced despite
(18:20):
having all world athletic capability according to the numbers that
he showed at the Combine. And the team that bites
is the Cincinnati Bengals because they don't know if Trey
Hendricks is going to be there next year or not.
They've gone all in on the offense. He wants his bag,
he might not get it. So the answer is going
(18:41):
to be a guy who combined well and had four
and a half total saxon college.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Yeah, I hate everything. This Spangles team is just done.
Speaker 5 (18:51):
I feel like every year they do stupid things and
you know the t Higgins jamar chase them waiting till
the last hour to sign those guys where they have
all this time to work out these deals end up
just paying them both just a ton of money and
just above market just because they had to, because they
just couldn't lose those two. And you know, our guy
(19:11):
Nick Giffin last year is all over the Spangals team
being the worst defenses in all of football.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
Nothing's changed.
Speaker 5 (19:16):
They have not addressed a single thing the fre agency.
This draft to me, like I'm going through all these guys.
You know, I'm glad they went you know, Edge and
d Lineman their first two picks, but neither guy really
moves the needle for me. And I would be shocked
if Storret's a Day one starter. Like the kids just
so raw as Chad's saying, so yeah, I'm off this
(19:36):
team would not pay the price. Give me plus three
fifty on the Bengals at plus two twenty, no value.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
Plus two twenty on the Bengals. I'm curious because you
said there's a team that you like. Right now we're
going to talk about the Steelers at plus five point fifty.
I can't imagine it's the Steelers. Why not interesting? Explain yourself.
Speaker 5 (20:00):
This is just a perfect team of they have, you know,
DK Metcalf, who I think is one of the better
receivers on football. And they kept pickings like they kept
their two bigger They have these two big receivers. The
only negative is Aaron Rodgers. We don't know what his
mentality is, what he's gonna do. Is he gonna come back? YadA,
YadA YadA. If he comes back, Chad, it's it's gonna
(20:22):
be night and day. Him going from the Jets dysfunctional
organization to a Tomlin rand team in Pittsburgh. And to me,
this feels like a hell Mary all In Last Hurrah
type of season in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Like you know, TJ.
Speaker 5 (20:37):
Watt is gonna be I think thirty one at the
start of this season. He's basically on his way out,
and he's kind of been quietly rumored to be really
bitcherbhind the scenes about this team. But I think if
they're bringing Rodgers with this team, I like it. Like
I just like how it's built out that it's not
gonna be all on him and he's gonna have such
insane weapons that you know, we saw it last year.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
He took about I want to.
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Say, ten weeks to get that Achilles right in game
and playing in the games right. It didn't feel like
he was comfortable either moving the pocket or pushing off
that back Achilles until week ten or eleven, and you
did see the Jets get better.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Once he did get comfortable as the season went along.
So that's my view of a chat.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
I just I'm betting on Tomlin at an insane number,
Like I have them priced as the second best team
this division. They have him way down there. Plus five hundred,
a big drop down for this Pittsburgh team. So I
think if Rogers comes back, this immediately jumps to what
plus four hundred plus three fifty, So.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
I'm just trying to get ahead of it. I like
the number. I'm gonna back Pittsburgh here.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
I had to put on my glasses to make sure
I was reading the number right. For the Cleveland Browns
thirty to one. Yeah, to win the division thirty to one.
You're almost obligated to take a piece of that number
because it's so outrageous. What if Shador Sanders is as
(22:00):
as good as mel kiper thinks he is, and what
if he should have been the number one overall quarterback?
And one if he comes in and he takes Kevin
Stefanski's offense, which we know can be really effective, and
we know he's a good coach.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
We've seen him do it with Baker, We've seen him
do it with Joe Flacco.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Like if he's got a accurate, careful quarterback who can
make the plays that he asked them to make. What
if Shador Sanders is those things? Don't we have to
take the Browns at thirty to one just for a
little taste.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
I mean, I'll throw a hundred on it, and it's fun.
Speaker 5 (22:33):
It'd be fun to make this bet and have a
three K come back off one hundred dollars bet.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
That'd be insane.
Speaker 5 (22:39):
But you know, to me, I loved how they started
this draft, Like I thought they were going to make
the stupid mistake of taking Travis Hunter with that second pick,
and thank god they didn't. They traded down, took this smart,
safe pick, Mason Graham, brilliant pair him, you know up front,
Like that's that's their biggest strengths, their defense, And I
(23:01):
love that they went Dtackle linebacker, Like to start the draft,
They're like, we're gonna keep adding to this strength to
this defense. And I think what you said was kind
of sneaky of the Joe Flacco thing, you know, I
you don't remember. But another bet I gave out at
our live show was the over four and a half
for this Browns team to win their win total, and it.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Was just because they have the defense.
Speaker 5 (23:24):
The thing that was missing last year was just a
stable player at that quarterback position. And in my mind,
I thought, even if it was a guy they drafted
or an Aaron Rodgers Joe Flacco type, it's gonna be
so much better than it was last year.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
It was just so bad.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
Like Winston had one good game then just had four
games in a row of just nothing, just train wreck
in every game. They were kind of in it because
their defense is so good. Like Chad said, Stefanski is
such a good coach. So yeah, I just like this team.
I like their win total. The only reason I'm not
taking them to visional odds is I know they're gonna
peter out come November, like they just won't last.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
With the Ravens or these or Pittsburgh.
Speaker 5 (24:06):
I just think eventually they're gonnaet figured out and kind
of get caught up. But yeah, like you're saying thirty
to one, how do you not throw a penny on that?
That's that's crazy, long shot.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
They have to throw a penny, little little bit of
a taste.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
The only team in the AFC who uh the only
division in the AFC where the odds on favorite is
plus money are the Houston Texans in the AFC South
at plus one oh five. They had a lot of
offensive line needs last year. They have receiver needs and
(24:40):
to their credit, first pick wide receiver, second pick offensive tackle,
third pick wide receiver.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
They took both.
Speaker 1 (24:50):
Receivers from Iowa State, so they are clearly going after
the things that they felt they needed the most last year.
Stefan Diggs injured, Nico Collins was injured, tanked Oll injured.
They don't know when he'll be back. He had that
gruesome knee injury. So they're trying to get themselves back
in a position to get some weapons for CJ.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
Stroud plus one oh five to win the division. Signing.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
This division's really tough.
Speaker 5 (25:20):
It's one of the divisions where it's like, I'm kind
of at this point throwing my hands up and I'm
gonna need more guidance on what they do with this
division because I just don't trust Houston like I did
come into last season in the sense that last year
I wanted to fade Houston, and then I remember I
broke right before the season. I was just like, all right,
I'm gonna go with Houston. I just cannot trust the Jags,
couldn't trust the Colts, and I sure as all didn't
(25:42):
trust Tennessee. So I was okay taking Houston last year.
This year, I see the upside of the Jaguars, I
see the upside of the Colts. I even see the
upside of Tennessee. I don't really see the upside of
this Texans team, Like I feel like they're tapped out
and they're in kind of a rebuild mode. Here, especially
that offensive line, Like did I dream that they moved
(26:02):
Larry and Tunsil, Like I envisioned them moving their best
offensive player that's on their offensive line, their biggest weakness,
to a different team because what they don't want to
pay him, he's too old. Very bizarre move of them
getting rid of him. So yeah, great that they got Higgins.
You know, you think he's a solid receiver, you know,
like you said it pick seventy nine, they wouldn't.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
Got another receiver.
Speaker 5 (26:24):
That's great, But at the same time, it's like, I
don't know if that's the really the needle mover, like
they they just they so much.
Speaker 3 (26:30):
Other They need to attack.
Speaker 5 (26:31):
They need to attack that defense and to me, that
offensive line, they really did not answer those questions. I'm
you know, you're getting the forty eighth pick, taking the
OFFENSI attack from Minnesota could work out. He could be
a hitter, but the odds are saying and most likely not,
he's gonna be a two or three year kind of
thing where they're gonna maybe have to start him because
they have a choice, but he's not gonna be polishing anyway.
(26:51):
So yeah, I just don't think there's any value there
chet up plus one oh five, and I'm not shocked
the books that made them a plus number. I thought
this would be close for a plus one plus one
twenty five. So yeah, I just I don't think there's
any value on this Houston team.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
You were you didn't dream it.
Speaker 1 (27:07):
By the way, Larry Mntunstall, left tackle who a lot
of people consider to be grading out as the best
left tackle in football, was traded from Houston to the
Washington Commanders. So next up in that division the Jacksonville
Jaguars plus three hundred. They made the biggest Day one move.
(27:29):
They're young GM who came from the Rams. Traded up
from number five to number two so he could get
Travis Hunter.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
I don't know if you've.
Speaker 1 (27:39):
Watched this guy's press conferences in the first couple of
days after the draft, both when he explained the trade
for Travis Hunter and when Travis Hunter was introduced.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
But they're not They're not just platitudes, man.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
This guy is preaching about what this team is going
to be and looking at it from sixty thousand feet
as if.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
We are in the middle of church.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Like the way he is talking about this, it feels
so much bigger. To him, then we're just trying to
build a good football team, which it should be. He's
the youngest GM in football and he's getting a big
chance and he's taking big swings. But I'm enjoying that
more than I'm enjoying trying to figure out what this
team is going to be with a quarterback that neither
of us believe in.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
Yeah, he's a thirty four year old.
Speaker 5 (28:29):
That, you know, is basically why older generations fucking hate millennials.
Speaker 6 (28:34):
Like when he speaks, he's so confident, yeah, and why
why It's it's bizarre where it's like, Okay, make a
playoff run and then give that speech after the season.
Speaker 5 (28:46):
Okay, shock us first, Like, to me, it's all horrible
trade for an overrated player, but great situation to me
for Travis Hunter. Like he's got a team that is
totally all and believes the bullshit he's selling that he's
gonna play defense and offense. It's like, even though any
(29:07):
guy who's ever played in the league and current players
in the league are just like, he is going to
die if he tries to play defense and offense. And
I gave that that analogy to Chad, you know, the
other week. If he got drafted by Cleveland, I can
only imagine he gets laid out by Kyle Hamilton and
then the next drive they have him thrown in there
and he has to make a tackle on Derrick Henry Will.
He was going to die if he went to the
NFC North, So AFC North, so maybe he can get
(29:30):
away with it. Right, he's in the AFC South now
no one really cares.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
Maybe they can get away with it.
Speaker 5 (29:36):
But like this GM holy shit, talk about just thinking
he's got all the answers to the test and he
doesn't even know the fucking subject. Like this kid just
seems like he is always going to set the Jags
back another five or ten years. So I'm excited, Like
it's gonna be fun watching, you know, the house burned down,
or it could be this guy is a genius. Travis
(29:58):
Hunter can play both sides of the ball. And it's
like you nailed the pick then, because Brian Thomas Junior
to me is a great pick from last year I picked.
This kid did not make so they got to the
one receiver. If Trevor Hunter could be the number two
receiver and be an absolutely stud great, Like that's that's fantastic.
But me, me and you talk all the time. The
biggest issue we've had with the Jaguars is they can't
(30:20):
block for Trevor Lawrence, and they didn't address that. Like
they got an offensive guard from West Virginia at pick
eighty nine. That ain't gonna that ain't gonna change much
for that offensive line. So excited for them, high hopes
for the Jaguars. But yeah, plus three hundred, no, thank you.
I'm happy to wait and see how this crazy experiment
(30:42):
goes with this kid.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
It's so funny you mentioned the play in both ways
thing because I watched the draft coverage and I feel
like I'm being punked. Like watching a lot of the
analysts talk about Travis Hunter and how he's going to
be able to do that and how it might be
easier in the NFL because they play fewer plays, I'm like,
(31:05):
what the fuck is happening here? Am I not watching
the same league?
Speaker 3 (31:10):
Yeah, it's fun. It's fun to make up in your
own mind that this is gonna work and he's gonna be.
Speaker 1 (31:13):
But it's so dumb, and by the way, all of
this comes down to Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Yeah, like that's it.
Speaker 1 (31:20):
That's the ballgame is Trevor Lawrence and his ability to
be accurate and run the playbook and get the ball
into his weapons hands. By the way, with a brand
new coach, brand new coaching staff, like I am not
sold on this situation at all. I think the Browns
put themselves in a really good spot. I don't know
(31:42):
that the Jaguars are going to be playoff quality next year,
whereas like the next team we're talking about, the Indianapolis Colts,
they get Tyler Warren, who knows who their quarterback is
going to be, but either one of those guys, Daniel
Jones or Anthony Richardson are going to be in a
better position because they got a guy who a lot
(32:02):
of people thought could have been a maybe the fifth
to sixth best player in the draft. The Colts are
plus three twenty five, so not that far off from
the Jaguars. The market doesn't think there's much of a
difference between these two teams, I know.
Speaker 5 (32:17):
And people are gonna be shocked. This is not the
team I'm been in this division. So there's only one
team left, so it kind of gives it away. But
I liked the draft by the Colts. I Honestly, it's
it's a good, solid, boring draft, right. They took the
best available players I had on their board and.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
Didn't reach for people like Warren.
Speaker 5 (32:33):
To me, shout out to Anthony Dubundo, he predicted it,
you know, three two, three weeks before the draft, that
that's who they were gonna get, and I was shocked
the Bears pass on them. But again, the more you
dove into it, it makes sense, right, Like there's there are
questions that Warren won't but get any separation. If this
kid was a freaking college now he's in a different
level and that you know, he's not gonna project out
(32:54):
to keep getting better. So you know, fun interesting pick there.
The hope is obviously Dallas Clark, Like that's the dream scenarios.
They get the guy they've been looking for for forever.
But yeah, the fact they went tight end and then
went edge went d back, like we all like it.
You know, this is a team that it all comes
down to the quarterback position. So Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson,
(33:17):
I don't feel like putting any money on them at
this point of the year, but maybe that will change
come August. But we're sitting right now, Chad, I don't
have really confidence to put money on those either, quarterback.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
And you do want the Tennessee Titans at eight to one,
let's go.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
You do. You don't love it, look at that face.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
So I'm just curious. I don't actually have a strong
opinion on this one.
Speaker 5 (33:39):
So my view of it is this team that historically
was the worst team we've ever seen from a gambling perspective.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Last season like biggest, biggest blind spot, biggest miss by
far of the season for me and you.
Speaker 5 (33:52):
Chad was not just fading them every week and every
week I kept saying that to myself, and I just
couldn't do it because it was like, but they're getting
literally four or five points for free here and it
didn't matter.
Speaker 3 (34:02):
That's how bad Will Levis was. So when you really go.
Speaker 5 (34:04):
Back through and break down this team, he was such
a net negative for them. That their defense was actually
pretty good, especially against explosive plays, like they're actually really
good at stopping teams from explosive plays. They just got
grinded out by a lot of teams, right, They just
got worn down because tons of short fields, tons of
three and outs from their offense, and they just got
(34:25):
worn out defensively, offensively, there's a lot to work with here.
Like their offensive line, you saw, you know, you made
a big deal effect that the dad came over from Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
What's his name, Bill Callahan?
Speaker 3 (34:37):
Bill Callahan.
Speaker 5 (34:39):
He came over and you immediately saw that he did
make a difference to a terrible offensive line. Like by
the end of the season, their blocking teams were actually
pretty good.
Speaker 3 (34:46):
They weren't.
Speaker 5 (34:47):
You know, Will Levis was dying early on, but the
season went along. A lot of it fell onto him
just holding on the ball too long, him just being
a bad quarterback. I just don't see the same happening here,
Like this is a team that, you know.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
Say what you want.
Speaker 5 (35:00):
If cam Ward's a little bit overdrafted, you know, I
think people kept saying he had been the fifth or
sixth quarterback in the previous draft. I didn't think he
was that bad. I had him right there, right behind
Drake May. I view him as a guy that was
underrated to come out of high school. I think he
was like a one star as you were, star recruit zero.
That's crazy, and he just worked for everything he's gotten
(35:24):
and he just keeps getting better every stage of his life.
So maybe he hits the wall. Maybe what we just
saw him in Miami that is as good as it's
ever gonna get, or you believe and project out that
this kid is really smart football wise and he's gonna
transition really well into the next level, just like we
saw Jane Daniels do. Where these guys who are cool,
comp collective in the pocket, confident in the pocket, those
(35:45):
are the ones who can't transition the best into the NFL.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
So I know, I got crazy high opes here.
Speaker 5 (35:51):
I got a long rope. It's eight to one for
them to win this division. So that's that's my view
of it is. I think I got to take a
position here and come November they're all the way down
to you know, four to one or three to one,
and then maybe if I like you STI at that point,
I'll take a position on them. But I think you're
just getting way too long of odds for this team
that defensively is as bad as people think they're on offensively,
(36:12):
just with the quarterback change, I think we're gonna see
a major leap for this team. So get right for
a chet, We're gonna bet in Tennessee a lot.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
Brother Tennessee and Carolina.
Speaker 1 (36:19):
That's going to be our Super Bowl pick. AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs minus one thirty. Like, I don't know
that we'll ever not want to bet on the Chiefs
as long as this division exists. With Patrick Mahomes and
they did things that we thought they needed to do right.
(36:40):
They drafted Josh Simmons, the offensive tackle from Ohio State.
They drafted for speed at the edge. They drafted a
wide receiver later on, a guy who a lot of
people thought could have been a much higher pick. He
came in the fourth round, Jalen Royals from Utah State,
but he was injured and so people thought if he
(37:00):
could replicate his twenty twenty three production, then he would
have been drafted maybe second round. So they got guys
that can probably play immediately that they need to contribute immediately.
Plus they're going to have Hollywood Brown, Plus they're going
to have Rashi Rice, Like they're going to be better
by virtue of addition of players who had been injured
(37:21):
not coming back.
Speaker 5 (37:23):
Yeah, and definitely Rice as the biggest one, like them
losing him and the fact that they didn't really miss
it beat and they still just make it all work.
Just shows the level of greatness of Andrew reading this
team where they can just keep adjusting like chameleon and
changing their colors into whatever they need to be to
make it work for that team. And you know, offensively,
on paper, I look at this team as this might
(37:45):
be the best team they've had offensively since.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
The Tyreek Kelsey years.
Speaker 5 (37:49):
Like they've been winning all these championships basically off makeshift
offenses with a really good defense, and like Chad just said,
you know, adjusting the offensive line right with the first pick. Great,
that's what we all think they should do. Because they've
done a total reshuffle this off season over that offensive line.
They've let guys go, They've traded guys. I mean, they
traded a guy to Chad's Bears. Like they're just they're
(38:12):
moving pieces and then paying guys and trying to make
it all.
Speaker 3 (38:14):
Work because it's tough, right.
Speaker 5 (38:16):
It's like they paid Mahomes all this money. Now they're
trying to make it all work across the board, and
it's like, you know, that's the magic of all these
teams where like you know, the Eagles, they've had to
let a ton of guys go because they can't affording
when after the Super Bowls. That's what's so impressible with
the Chiefs is they keep making these super Bowls and
losing all these guys, and they keep going back, they
keep making work and it's just when are they gonna
(38:37):
get caught? Like it's that old uh you know, Aaron
Paul screamed with this guy. They can't keep getting away
from this. It's true. It's like, I can't believe the
Chiefs just keep getting away from this and this this draft,
I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
I think they nailed it like that.
Speaker 5 (38:52):
In fact, they drafted offensive lineman then went two defensive
linemen right after. I love that for them, Like, just
keep reloading.
Speaker 3 (38:59):
In the trenches. They're just they're so smart and savvy.
Speaker 5 (39:02):
So yeah, this is a team that, you know, great
value in my opinion, minus one thirty. This is a
team that's won the division seven eight years in a row,
something crazy like that. And it's because every year everyone
thinks in their mind that this is the year that
they take a step back, this is the year the
Chargers take the next step, this is the year the
(39:23):
Broncos finally step up. So it's a rare opportunity. Chib
minus one thirty for the Chiefs. To me, I have
a surprice that wont minus one seventy five. I really
liked this early value here on this Chiefs number and
minus one thirty.
Speaker 1 (39:37):
Sansas City Chiefs professionals. Los Angeles Chargers are trying to
be professionals, and I think they're getting closer. They're at
plus three hundred. They drafted mari and Hampton in the
first round. I know that Evan loved Hampton and we
had a lot of conversations about that last week when
we had him in raybaon On. I think they had
(39:57):
a totally good draft. Did they put themselves in a
position to be better than the Chiefs? Probably not, But
you can't get there unless you have Patrick Mahomes. The
real question for them is just another year playing with Harbaugh,
and he did a miraculous turnaround with them last year.
His team's always get that much better in the second year.
So if you're gonna bet on them, it's because you're
(40:18):
betting on Harbaugh and sort of the value of his system.
What's interesting to me is justin Herbert would get crushed
from the center of his offensive line, the middle of
that offensive line. Last year, they kind of didn't do
much in the draft to improve that.
Speaker 5 (40:37):
Yeah, and like, honestly, I didn't think the Church would
be that good last year. And what I relooked was
this kid Minter, like this DC they brought in that
totally changed the team. Like as much you want to
give credit to Horrorball, it was the defense that carried
them that entire season. Like they just basically ran it
first a second down, then you know Herbert would make
a nice plan third down. That was their offense, where
(41:00):
defense they kept getting stops and even against good teams
early on, Like I remember the Chiefs when they played
early on, they were really stout against them. And you know,
I get why the public is fascinating this team, but
I think they were a year early.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
And it's moved the number two much.
Speaker 5 (41:16):
I don't think there's any value here plus three hundred,
no value for me on this Chargers team. Like you
just said, this draft it was good, but it was
good in the sense that it's like, does it really
help them be so much better than they were last year?
Their run game was pretty stylid last year with a
bunch of nobody, so obviously Hampton should be a big uptick.
This kid seems like an absolute stud, you know, such
(41:37):
a horrorball pick and at that spot like taking a
running back where I didn't see it coming just because
they already have guys. But after they make the pick,
it makes total sense because he is so good. But
you know, looking at it over, the more I look
at their draft, I'm just like, Okay, it is a
horriball draft. Right he went running back, wide receiver, and
then a couple of guys in the D line like
(41:58):
they're just filling it out, trying to get better, like
you just said, trying to get more of his identity
as they go along here.
Speaker 3 (42:04):
But a plus three hundred that just feels like.
Speaker 5 (42:06):
Way too much respect for what they did last year
or last year felt very flukey based on the schedule
they had, and very fluke in the sense that Mint
during this defense was just out of this world how
good they were for the first twelve weeks. So yeah,
for value wise, I wouldn't bet them for this division.
Speaker 1 (42:23):
I thought it was interesting with the Broncos. Sean Payton
was really vocal all weekend defending Shador Sanders, talking about
how he knew the family. You know, he had been
in Dallas when Shador was in Texas and has a
relationship with them, and was truly saying teams are going
to regret passing on Shad Door Sanders. He didn't draft
(42:44):
Shad Door Sanders to be a backup to bo Nicks
at any point, no matter how valuable he thought the
placement might.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
Have been might have been. In the draft.
Speaker 1 (42:52):
They did draft that cornerback from Texas, Baron, who you know,
is crazy fast. To me, they're more interesting as a
play at plus three twenty five then the Chargers at
plus three hundred because we saw how good this defense was,
and we saw bo Knicks get better and better every
single week. So now all of a sudden they've got
another weapon in that secondary that makes them that much
(43:16):
more challenging for a team like Kansas City, which has
the best quarterback in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (43:22):
Yeah, you're gonna like it even more.
Speaker 4 (43:24):
Chet.
Speaker 3 (43:24):
It's plus three seventy five plus four hundred, so even better.
Speaker 2 (43:27):
Ma, dude should have put my glasses on for that one.
Speaker 5 (43:31):
No, it's to me, that's the value in this division,
right Like, I feel like you just nailed it. Where
we're banking on the year two jump from bow Knicks,
which we I know it's annoying people, but it's a
it's a real thing that year two jump with these
quarterbacks go through. You know Mahomes first MVP season, that
was this first year as a start, it was a
year two jump. Lamar first year's MVP year two jump,
(43:52):
you know, second season as a starter. So this draft,
to me, they nailed it. Like I love the quarterback
that got out of Texas and now you know your
secondary is one of your biggest straints. Now it's like
even more insane, like it's just another team that they
didn't force a draft pick. They didn't force a D
lineman that they do need. They took the best player
(44:12):
available on their draft board. And I loved it. And
you know, Harvey the running back from UFC. It'll be
unknown how good he'll be in the NFL, but he's
got all these free qualities to him. And I love
those type of running backs where it's like, yes see
the vision and a guy that you know, Peyton is
just like out of this world. He the stuff he
(44:32):
can do with running backs. You know, Darren Sproll is
the first one that pops on the mind what he
was able to do with him once he came down
there and Reggie Bush. Yeah right, Reggie Bush. He just
he can he can keep going. He no, but seriously,
he gets this vision for these guys and he can
mold the offense around them as well, which is something
(44:52):
very unique to Sean Payton and his offensive schemes.
Speaker 3 (44:55):
So you know, big big deal. They've done all this,
and our.
Speaker 5 (45:00):
View of it is just okay, the defense takes another step,
if bon next tacks another step, it's all there.
Speaker 3 (45:06):
Right.
Speaker 5 (45:06):
They have a coach who, in my mind, is on
the same type of level offensively as Andy Reid is.
And you saw that last year, like Bo Nicks. I
wish people could heard Man Mitchell talk about him coming
to the season this. I think most college fans buried that.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
Man.
Speaker 5 (45:19):
They're just like, who the hell are they taking their
first round and bone Knicks and he saw his year
went along like he fits so perfectly.
Speaker 3 (45:26):
Into that scheme that he was running.
Speaker 5 (45:27):
So really excited to see if they have a year
to jump or a team that could just be like
what they were last year they overachieved and just fall
in their face because bone Knicks is overrated and he
just got lucky after one fluke year in the NFL
so high upside team, huge floor, like really could drop
down to five six wins this up coming season just because.
Speaker 3 (45:48):
They were so ahead of the child. I remember they
had a run.
Speaker 5 (45:50):
At one point they had won like seven straight road games,
like very bizarre, how damnant they were. So yeah, this
is this is a team that you know, really out
kicked their cover left last season.
Speaker 3 (46:00):
We took them and take another step. We're gonna bet
on it, but I am nervous making this bet on Bonnicks.
Speaker 1 (46:07):
How do you feel about the Las Vegas Raiders at
sixteen to one with Gino Smith and Ashton Genty and
Pete Carroll as the head coach, I'd be tempted to
take their over season win total. Tempted because I do
think there's enough talent with Gino Smith and brought Bauers
(46:27):
and Ashton Genty, they will just be so much better
than last year offensively, and the market will keep them
being depressed.
Speaker 5 (46:36):
Well, something really depressing is I got this at twenty
to one, and then when they added Gino it only moved.
Speaker 3 (46:40):
To sixteen to one, So it just shows the books just.
Speaker 5 (46:43):
Don't respect Gino at all. I'm with you though, this
number feels insane. Like, like we said before, this is
a physical game. We've already seen Mahomes. You know, he
got injured on a touch push. That's why he doesn't
even do QB sneaks anymore, like his knee. Last time
he did a q YOU sneak, his knee popped out.
I remember that, and there's a reason they don't do
that with him anymore.
Speaker 3 (47:05):
You know, this is a fickle league.
Speaker 5 (47:07):
So it's like this, this Raiders team is going to
take such a huge jump going from Minshew to Gino Smith,
a guy who is smart and his patient in the
pocket and can read a defense. Yeah, like I hate
that genty win here, but maybe that pick saved my ass.
Like if he would have went after pick six, that
would have.
Speaker 3 (47:27):
Cost me an insane amount of money. So yeah, I
got really lucky he went there.
Speaker 5 (47:31):
Don't know if I love the fit for gent, but
it's like that's an instant a plus move for their
offense right Like this already this is already going to
let it be that the box if they ever even
try a stack against Gino.
Speaker 3 (47:44):
We've seen Geno.
Speaker 5 (47:45):
Maybe that was part of the DK effect, but to me,
Gino is best downfield, like him pushing the ball down
field is when he's at his best. For some reason,
it's when he's like you know, taking his time too
long in the pocket, trying to go through all his
motions that he struggles. So I'm with you, Chad. The
fact that this is sixteen to one. Still it's just
like Cleveland. We'll throw a little bet on it, just
because the crazy things that have happened. My big, big
(48:07):
bet like that, I'm gonna take a large position on
It's going to be the chiefs in this division at
minus one thirty. That's where if you want to lock
up your money now, that's where I would go with it.
But if you're like us, you love madness and the
crazy upside.
Speaker 3 (48:20):
Sixteen to one. Geno Smith, come on, let's throw a
little piece on that.
Speaker 1 (48:24):
We began our back to backs yesterday talking about mel
Kuiper and his meldowns about Shador Sanders and a chart
in which the exemplar, one of the exemplars of his
grading quarterbacks highly who then sunk down the draft, was
(48:46):
Geno Smith. We end it talking about how we believe
enough in Geno Smith they were willing to take a
taste on the Raiders at sixteen to one.
Speaker 2 (48:58):
Good for us, Good for that. We bring a full
circle light there. It is as a reminder of the Favorites.
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(50:21):
four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is
our second day in a row, the rare two first
doubleheader talking about the NFL Draft.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Today, I'm joined as always buy my co.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Host, my companion, Mike and Padre might BFF professional better
Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Hello, Simon, just.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Talking football and mate Chad nothing better? Brother?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
How good is that?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
That's how much we love it and how much we
miss it. We're doing two back to back shows about
the NFL Draft.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
We don't even do.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Back to back shows about the Super Bowl, but we're
going back to back on the draft. Yesterday we did
the NFC. Today we are doing the AFC. And here's
what's interesting to me. It's more of an indication of
what the public market everybody thinks about the differences between
the AFC and the NFC.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
In the NFC.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
There was one team that was minus money to win
their division. That was the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
In the AFC, there are three teams that are minus
money to win their division, including the Super Bowl runner
up Kansas City Chiefs, including the Baltimore Ravens and the
(01:36):
Buffalo Bills, who have the longest odds of any team
or the shortest odds of any team. I'm sorry, it's
really like, yeah, the shortest dots. They have the largest
discrepancy of any team to win their division at minus
two seventy five. So we're going to get into the
(01:58):
AFC breakdown today. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and New Bet three
sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using
promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars in place to bet
for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
(02:21):
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
(02:43):
restrictions apply, all right, So we dug deep on a
lot of the storylines yesterday. Today, we're going to go
right to the teams, and I do want to start
Simon with the Buffalo Bills minus two to seventy five
at bet three sixty five to win their division.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Before we came on, you know, there.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Were radio hosts in Buffalo who were giving Brandon being
the Bills GM a hard time because they didn't go
after a receiver. And he basically threw up his hands
and was like, what.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Do you guys want me to do?
Speaker 1 (03:16):
We averaged thirty points a game last year, Like, I
think I know what I'm doing when it comes to
building the offense.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
I was just listening to the last few minutes of
your show before I came home, waiting on here. Sound
was like twenty eighteen all.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
Over with you guys. Well we're very how so well.
Speaker 4 (03:34):
You guys were bitching in twenty eighteen about Josh Allen.
You guys wanted Josh Rosen, and now you guys are
bitching that we don't have a receiver I don't get it.
We just scored thirty points in a row for eight
straight games a year ago. I get you guys asking
why we didn't have receivers, but I don't understand it now.
You just saw us lead the league in points. When
(03:55):
you add all the postseason, no one scored more points.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
I love that he was basically came came out and said,
fuck you guys, like you don't know what the hell
you're talking about. They drafted the cornerback Maxwell Harriston in
the first round from Kentucky, who, to me, was my
favorite player in the draft because he was the guy
who was the last person that dapped up every single
player who got drafted ahead of him in the green room,
(04:21):
and then he finally got drafted at the end of
the first round. So I was just happy for him
because he seemed like a sweetheart of a guy.
Speaker 5 (04:27):
Yeah, I'll piggyback off that. Good for Brandon bing to
b flexing his muscle. He's a guy that you know,
last year we thought there would be a borderline playoff team,
and you know, I talked a ton about, you know.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
The fact that they had so much dead cap.
Speaker 5 (04:42):
I couldn't believe that much dead cap they had and
how hard that is to overcome, or you're trying to
build out a team like you're going against teams that
don't have seventy million dollars in dead cap. And I
said the following year, they'll use that money and attack
the defense. They did it in a different way, right, He's
resigned a bunch of guys that they are kind of
paying ahead time, just getting it lined up right for
their defense.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
And then he went out and just drafted a don
of defense.
Speaker 5 (05:04):
And I love that move because you know, their offense
didn't fail them last year. They shouldn't have been giving
up so many points to that Chiefs offense like that,
to me was very alarming, and that was a reason
for them to attack the defense in this offseason. And
you know the fact that they've paid starters they trust
for the future, and they've gone out defensively in this
draft and really attacked it.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
I love it.
Speaker 5 (05:25):
So, you know, minus two to seventy five, Chad, we
don't bet those type of numbers around here. So if
you want to do what I love doing, like you know,
the Chiefs are a big number. You partlay these divisional
teams together and you kind of you know, if you
want to choose the Bills to be an anchor, you
can go for it. There's a team coming up we'll
talk about that I think might give them a little
bit of a run for their money here in this
(05:47):
division this upcoming season. So yeah, two seventy five. I
think it's warranted, but I wouldn't touch that straight up.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
I wonder if you and I are thinking about the
same team, it is not the team that has the
second shortest odds to win the division, in the Miami Dolphins,
who are.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Plus five point fifty at bet three six five.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Their first pick was Kenneth Grant, the defensive tackle from Michigan.
The one of their last picks, I think it might
have been. Their last pick was no.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Their second or.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Last pick was Quinn Ewers, the quarterback from Texas in
the seventh round.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
But kind of unspectacular as a draft.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
It didn't feel like they did a ton of things
that were going to take them from that that team
that was mediocre and really can do nothing without Tua
to being a team that can challenge the Bills, or
a team I think could be on their heels in
the AFC East.
Speaker 5 (06:42):
Yeah, I think we all view the Dolphins windows closed,
and it's tough to say. I know they don't want
to hear it, but it felt like that when he
you know, when Tua came on of the scene and
they kind of had this offense built around him with
Tyreek and Waddle and they were explosive. You know, two
years ago that was the team, and every year it
(07:04):
feels like they've gotten worse. Right, losing Fangs to the Eagles.
As a coach, that was a big deal. Their defense
just simply was not as good as it was the
year before. And you know, this year, I like the
moves in the draft. Of fact, they went and got
adtackle their first pick from Michigan, right, and who knows
if Grant's gonna.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
Be a stub.
Speaker 5 (07:22):
That's a good pick, that's a safe pick. Then you
have pick thirty seven, you get a guard.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Okay, that's fine. They didn't pick again until one forty three.
Speaker 5 (07:29):
So this is like another team that like they just
didn't really have the picks because they've traded so much
in previous years and now we're kind of seeing it.
The fact that they've paid their quarterback one crazy money,
the two wide receivers crazy money, there's nothing left throughout
the team. They should just have thin team across the board.
So yeah, I think we're on the same page. Plus
five fifty. I wouldn't bet this. This should be closer
(07:52):
to plus six hundred plus six fifty than it is.
So to me, Miami, you're I'm with Chad. I think
they're the third fourth team in this division will.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
In that plus six point fifty range, the New England Patriots,
And that is interesting to me. You and I love Rabel.
He has historically being a coach that we always want
to bet on, really performs well as an underdog. He
(08:21):
is Belichickian in his understanding of the rules and how
to take advantage of them and how to squeeze every
single opportunity out of the most strategic moments of a game.
And then they go out and do the smart thing.
They draft Will Campbell, the offensive tackle from LSU, with
the fourth overall pick, and then they get a guy
(08:43):
that a lot of people love, Traveon Henderson, in the
second round.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
They're running back from.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
Ohio State, so and all of a sudden, they're starting
to build a little bit and support Drake May who
was just a baller last year. So you bring in
a guy with an attitude like Vrabel, who brings structure
to the organization, and then start building infrastructure around Drake May,
and this team just gets much better. To me, I
(09:08):
think they're better just by virtue of who's in the building.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
Yeah, I'll just start at the top of saying that.
Speaker 5 (09:14):
As a fan, I think Patriots fans should know that
all fan bases of football want them to have twenty
thirty forty years of just hell. I want you guys
to be terrible. I hope every quarterback you draft is horrible.
I just want nothing but bad things for the Patriots.
That being said, I love to hire and Rabel. We
both agree. We think Drake May has a ton of upside,
(09:35):
a ton of talent. The reason we're betting on them
to win this division is because of the year two jump.
That's something we see time and time again where a
guy comes in year one and it's on an awful
team and it looks awful and they're a bad team.
We've seen it. If they can get the right type
of talent in the door, the right coaching staff in
the door, and they can build it out, there is
(09:57):
a year two jump and a possibility of Thatmber plus
six fifty plus seven hundred. A lot of books have
the Patriots division will take that number. But like we
said the top, there's a reason that Bills are minus
two seventy five, like they are so far ahead of
this Patriots team. We would need a major, major drump
from Drake May and we need a defense to go
(10:18):
to an another level. Like Chad just said, they basically
went offensive tackle, running back, wide receiver, center. Those are
their first fourth picks, so they've kind of said, Okay,
we'll address the defense down the road, either in free
agency or in next year's draft. This year, we're going
to put an emphasis on trying to put Drake Ma
in a better position than he was in the previous season.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
So I do really like that.
Speaker 5 (10:41):
If you're a Pageots fan, you have to be happy
with this draft, even if you don't love Will Campbell
at that spot, right, why wouldn't you trade back to
pick ten with the Bears or whoever it was offering
you a pick at that spot to take someone else
another offensive lineman. You know you probably would have the
same value there, just because oh there's offensive line at
the top.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
Of this draft.
Speaker 5 (10:59):
For of all the same, right, They're all really good,
high level offensive linemen with a little bit of weaknesses
here and there that can make them never be an
all pro. And that was kind of the whole deal
heading to this draft. So I get why people are
like they reach a little bit on Campbell. That could
be true, but I think at the end of the day, it.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Was Verbel's guy.
Speaker 5 (11:16):
No one was offered them good enough pick to get
up to pick four, and you know, to me, they
nailed this draft. So yeah, I think we're on the
same page. I had that the best value to me
right now for this division, it's got to be this
Patriots team.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
What a difference in year makes simon that when the
Jets had Aaron Rodgers, we were all in and then
being the challenger brand to the Buffalo to the Buffalo Bills.
The Jets are now fourteen to one to win the division.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
No faith in justin fields.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
The operators are saying the public has they draft an
offensive tackle. Might have reached for a guy at the
seventh overall pick in the first round. They probably needed
some weapons, specifically a tight end. People thought they might
take Tyler Warren with that pick. Instead, they got a
tight end in the second round. Not a ton of
(12:13):
sort of enthusiasm or hope coming out of this draft.
Speaker 5 (12:18):
No, And you know, part of me wants to throw
a little penny on this fourteen to one because it
is such an insane number and anything could happen, right,
Josh Allen could go down two, It could go down
like there could be a bunch of different injuries this division.
Drake may could fan out and all of a sudden
the Jets aol see this division eight to nine and
eight and you had great value on betting the butt
fourteen to one. The hardest port for me eachaz is
(12:41):
Justin Fields and we talk all the time in football
the quarterback position. Yes, people can make up a million
reasons why he never won in his career that the
Bears felt of YadA, YadA, YadA, But you see a
time and time again, some of these guys just can't
turn it around without the perfect scenario. And this doesn't
feel like a perfect scenario for him. Justin Field's walking
(13:02):
to this Jets team, it still feels like a dysfunctional
organization that starts the top with their ownership and it
works all the way down.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
So yeah, first year head coach.
Speaker 5 (13:11):
And you know, Aaron Glenn's already in the news because
he's getting shipped from how he dealt with Aaron Rodgers
and all this other stuff. So this is just not
a Jets team I want to invest in. I think
you're on the same page, like it's it's a team
I assume is trying to get a top five, top
ten pick next year in the draft. Like that's how
(13:34):
they're kind of building this team out. So the books
very telling having them at fourteen.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
To one right now in this division.
Speaker 5 (13:40):
So yeah, it's it's great drafts, Like we'll get to
the draft real quick. You know, the fact that you
guys went tackle, tight end, cornerback, wide receiver, like they're
taking positions that they just they're going best available.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
They weren't really filling in needs.
Speaker 5 (13:52):
They didn't feel like they didn't drafted to draft a guy, right,
they were taking the best guys they had on their board,
which I like.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
For the Jets' future for this season. Does nothing for.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Me, by the way, you just said, you guys, what
do I have to do with the Jets.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I don't I don't even think about the Jets.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
Maybe you guys talking to media, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Oh oh, so now I'm just media. Now I'm just
that's how you see me. I'm just a media guy.
Speaker 5 (14:18):
It was more, it was more in general. It wasn't
directed that you. Usually when I go more to you,
I go Chad.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
I like the ur Chad, you, thank you.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
I appreciate that. I don't want to be lumped in
with you.
Speaker 1 (14:28):
Just how you generalize, you know, the media people, media
under attack every day as an institution. The Baltimore Ravens
minus one thirty five to win the AFC North. Look,
I know what we're going to say here. Last year,
we love the Bengals, and I'm not sure I have
(14:50):
that kind of enthusiasm for the Bengals this year. I
was pretty unimpressed with their draft, and we'll get to
that part.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
But the Ravens. The Ravens did the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Like at the end of the first round, they get
Malachi Starks from Georgia, so they had released Marcus Williams
like he's going to come in perfectly aligned with Kyle Hamilton.
That defense got better and better as the second half
of the season went on, Like I love what they do.
They had a controversial pick with Mike Green, the kid
(15:20):
from Marshall who had played at Virginia, has had sexual
assault allegations in the past. That's partially why he was
at Marshall and partially why he's dropped. But it's supposed
to be a great talent like visit team that just
they know what they're doing. They also drafted a kicker,
by the way, in case Justin Tucker is no longer available.
Speaker 5 (15:39):
Yeah, I would say that was probably the craziest part
of their draft in my opinion, then taking that kicker
because allegedly, you know, Justin Tucker might be on his
way out of the league. So that's the type of
move that it's like, Okay, they're kind of being ahead
of it, right. I think they're kind of letting us
know what they're probably going to do here, because that's
a big deal for a team like this to take
a guy, and especially you.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Know, another team that we have to say.
Speaker 5 (16:03):
They're a top five front office or at least top
five front office the last twenty five years, like they
just always make the right decisions, and even they've had
guys step down and new people step up into these
front office positions, they've carried on the legacy of a
draft a great drafting team in Baltimore. So yeah, Mike Green,
major questions, No doubt about the talent, It's all about
(16:24):
the person you know, to them that that risk was
worth it at that position. You know, I'm with you
with Chatted the fact that you know the them being
minus one thirty five, they should be like, I have
them great up to minus one fifty in this division,
So I have there is value right now on this
number if you want to take it.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
I've thrown a little bit on them at this number,
and we'll talk about the other team this division. I
think as a chance.
Speaker 5 (16:47):
But you know, the Ravens just feel like they're so
far ahead of everyone else in this division because they
just draft so well every year.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
And you're going through.
Speaker 5 (16:58):
Their major weaknesses of this team, like we say every year,
there really isn't one. Like you could say the major
questions might be defensively that is fair, but offensively we
think it'll be even better this year. Lamar gets more
comfortable in this offense. Derrick Henry obviously year two in
this team should be more comfortable. It's just they're just
so good, Like you said, they just dropped so well
(17:19):
so yeah, really impressive.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
How much more comfortable can they get? Lamar Jackson should
have been the MVP and Derreck Henry could have run
for two thousand yards as a thirty one year old
like that is peak comfort to me.
Speaker 5 (17:34):
It was, but it was also felt like there were
a couple of things missing, and it was the first
year where they really opened up the offense to Lamar
having more say and passing the ball downfield in my opinion,
So it's just ton me to see what he does
this upcoming season where you're right, you know, you probably
could have won MVP last year, probably should have Kenny
Redo that in another season, I think he can. It's
(17:55):
just didn't feel like they lost anything from last season.
They've only gained him gotten better since last year.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Cincinnati Bengals plus two twenty. I had a long rant
on the show last week about Shamar Stewart, the defensive
end from Texas A and M and look, I don't
know anything, but I know that you got a lot
of film on a guy who has not produced despite
(18:20):
having all world athletic capability according to the numbers that
he showed at the Combine. And the team that bites
is the Cincinnati Bengals because they don't know if Trey
Hendricks is going to be there next year or not.
They've gone all in on the offense. He wants his bag,
he might not get it. So the answer is going
(18:41):
to be a guy who combined well and had four
and a half total saxon college.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Yeah, I hate everything. This Spangles team is just done.
Speaker 5 (18:51):
I feel like every year they do stupid things and
you know the t Higgins jamar chase them waiting till
the last hour to sign those guys where they have
all this time to work out these deals end up
just paying them both just a ton of money and
just above market just because they had to, because they
just couldn't lose those two. And you know, our guy
(19:11):
Nick Giffin last year is all over the Spangals team
being the worst defenses in all of football.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
Nothing's changed.
Speaker 5 (19:16):
They have not addressed a single thing the fre agency.
This draft to me, like I'm going through all these guys.
You know, I'm glad they went you know, Edge and
d Lineman their first two picks, but neither guy really
moves the needle for me. And I would be shocked
if Storret's a Day one starter. Like the kids just
so raw as Chad's saying, so yeah, I'm off this
(19:36):
team would not pay the price. Give me plus three
fifty on the Bengals at plus two twenty, no value.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
Plus two twenty on the Bengals. I'm curious because you
said there's a team that you like. Right now we're
going to talk about the Steelers at plus five point fifty.
I can't imagine it's the Steelers. Why not interesting? Explain yourself.
Speaker 5 (20:00):
This is just a perfect team of they have, you know,
DK Metcalf, who I think is one of the better
receivers on football. And they kept pickings like they kept
their two bigger They have these two big receivers. The
only negative is Aaron Rodgers. We don't know what his
mentality is, what he's gonna do. Is he gonna come back? YadA,
YadA YadA. If he comes back, Chad, it's it's gonna
(20:22):
be night and day. Him going from the Jets dysfunctional
organization to a Tomlin rand team in Pittsburgh. And to me,
this feels like a hell Mary all In Last Hurrah
type of season in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Like you know, TJ.
Speaker 5 (20:37):
Watt is gonna be I think thirty one at the
start of this season. He's basically on his way out,
and he's kind of been quietly rumored to be really
bitcherbhind the scenes about this team. But I think if
they're bringing Rodgers with this team, I like it. Like
I just like how it's built out that it's not
gonna be all on him and he's gonna have such
insane weapons that you know, we saw it last year.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
He took about I want to.
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Say, ten weeks to get that Achilles right in game
and playing in the games right. It didn't feel like
he was comfortable either moving the pocket or pushing off
that back Achilles until week ten or eleven, and you
did see the Jets get better.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Once he did get comfortable as the season went along.
So that's my view of a chat.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
I just I'm betting on Tomlin at an insane number,
Like I have them priced as the second best team
this division. They have him way down there. Plus five hundred,
a big drop down for this Pittsburgh team. So I
think if Rogers comes back, this immediately jumps to what
plus four hundred plus three fifty, So.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
I'm just trying to get ahead of it. I like
the number. I'm gonna back Pittsburgh here.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
I had to put on my glasses to make sure
I was reading the number right. For the Cleveland Browns
thirty to one. Yeah, to win the division thirty to one.
You're almost obligated to take a piece of that number
because it's so outrageous. What if Shador Sanders is as
(22:00):
as good as mel kiper thinks he is, and what
if he should have been the number one overall quarterback?
And one if he comes in and he takes Kevin
Stefanski's offense, which we know can be really effective, and
we know he's a good coach.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
We've seen him do it with Baker, We've seen him
do it with Joe Flacco.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Like if he's got a accurate, careful quarterback who can
make the plays that he asked them to make. What
if Shador Sanders is those things? Don't we have to
take the Browns at thirty to one just for a
little taste.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
I mean, I'll throw a hundred on it, and it's fun.
Speaker 5 (22:33):
It'd be fun to make this bet and have a
three K come back off one hundred dollars bet.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
That'd be insane.
Speaker 5 (22:39):
But you know, to me, I loved how they started
this draft, Like I thought they were going to make
the stupid mistake of taking Travis Hunter with that second pick,
and thank god they didn't. They traded down, took this smart,
safe pick, Mason Graham, brilliant pair him, you know up front,
Like that's that's their biggest strengths, their defense, And I
(23:01):
love that they went Dtackle linebacker, Like to start the draft,
They're like, we're gonna keep adding to this strength to
this defense. And I think what you said was kind
of sneaky of the Joe Flacco thing, you know, I
you don't remember. But another bet I gave out at
our live show was the over four and a half
for this Browns team to win their win total, and it.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Was just because they have the defense.
Speaker 5 (23:24):
The thing that was missing last year was just a
stable player at that quarterback position. And in my mind,
I thought, even if it was a guy they drafted
or an Aaron Rodgers Joe Flacco type, it's gonna be
so much better than it was last year.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
It was just so bad.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
Like Winston had one good game then just had four
games in a row of just nothing, just train wreck
in every game. They were kind of in it because
their defense is so good. Like Chad said, Stefanski is
such a good coach. So yeah, I just like this team.
I like their win total. The only reason I'm not
taking them to visional odds is I know they're gonna
peter out come November, like they just won't last.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
With the Ravens or these or Pittsburgh.
Speaker 5 (24:06):
I just think eventually they're gonnaet figured out and kind
of get caught up. But yeah, like you're saying thirty
to one, how do you not throw a penny on that?
That's that's crazy, long shot.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
They have to throw a penny, little little bit of
a taste.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
The only team in the AFC who uh the only
division in the AFC where the odds on favorite is
plus money are the Houston Texans in the AFC South
at plus one oh five. They had a lot of
offensive line needs last year. They have receiver needs and
(24:40):
to their credit, first pick wide receiver, second pick offensive tackle,
third pick wide receiver.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
They took both.
Speaker 1 (24:50):
Receivers from Iowa State, so they are clearly going after
the things that they felt they needed the most last year.
Stefan Diggs injured, Nico Collins was injured, tanked Oll injured.
They don't know when he'll be back. He had that
gruesome knee injury. So they're trying to get themselves back
in a position to get some weapons for CJ.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
Stroud plus one oh five to win the division. Signing.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
This division's really tough.
Speaker 5 (25:20):
It's one of the divisions where it's like, I'm kind
of at this point throwing my hands up and I'm
gonna need more guidance on what they do with this
division because I just don't trust Houston like I did
come into last season in the sense that last year
I wanted to fade Houston, and then I remember I
broke right before the season. I was just like, all right,
I'm gonna go with Houston. I just cannot trust the Jags,
couldn't trust the Colts, and I sure as all didn't
(25:42):
trust Tennessee. So I was okay taking Houston last year.
This year, I see the upside of the Jaguars, I
see the upside of the Colts. I even see the
upside of Tennessee. I don't really see the upside of
this Texans team, Like I feel like they're tapped out
and they're in kind of a rebuild mode. Here, especially
that offensive line, Like did I dream that they moved
(26:02):
Larry and Tunsil, Like I envisioned them moving their best
offensive player that's on their offensive line, their biggest weakness,
to a different team because what they don't want to
pay him, he's too old. Very bizarre move of them
getting rid of him. So yeah, great that they got Higgins.
You know, you think he's a solid receiver, you know,
like you said it pick seventy nine, they wouldn't.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
Got another receiver.
Speaker 5 (26:24):
That's great, But at the same time, it's like, I
don't know if that's the really the needle mover, like
they they just they so much.
Speaker 3 (26:30):
Other They need to attack.
Speaker 5 (26:31):
They need to attack that defense and to me, that
offensive line, they really did not answer those questions. I'm
you know, you're getting the forty eighth pick, taking the
OFFENSI attack from Minnesota could work out. He could be
a hitter, but the odds are saying and most likely not,
he's gonna be a two or three year kind of
thing where they're gonna maybe have to start him because
they have a choice, but he's not gonna be polishing anyway.
(26:51):
So yeah, I just don't think there's any value there
chet up plus one oh five, and I'm not shocked
the books that made them a plus number. I thought
this would be close for a plus one plus one
twenty five. So yeah, I just I don't think there's
any value on this Houston team.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
You were you didn't dream it.
Speaker 1 (27:07):
By the way, Larry Mntunstall, left tackle who a lot
of people consider to be grading out as the best
left tackle in football, was traded from Houston to the
Washington Commanders. So next up in that division the Jacksonville
Jaguars plus three hundred. They made the biggest Day one move.
(27:29):
They're young GM who came from the Rams. Traded up
from number five to number two so he could get
Travis Hunter.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
I don't know if you've.
Speaker 1 (27:39):
Watched this guy's press conferences in the first couple of
days after the draft, both when he explained the trade
for Travis Hunter and when Travis Hunter was introduced.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
But they're not They're not just platitudes, man.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
This guy is preaching about what this team is going
to be and looking at it from sixty thousand feet
as if.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
We are in the middle of church.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Like the way he is talking about this, it feels
so much bigger. To him, then we're just trying to
build a good football team, which it should be. He's
the youngest GM in football and he's getting a big
chance and he's taking big swings. But I'm enjoying that
more than I'm enjoying trying to figure out what this
team is going to be with a quarterback that neither
of us believe in.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
Yeah, he's a thirty four year old.
Speaker 5 (28:29):
That, you know, is basically why older generations fucking hate millennials.
Speaker 6 (28:34):
Like when he speaks, he's so confident, yeah, and why
why It's it's bizarre where it's like, Okay, make a
playoff run and then give that speech after the season.
Speaker 5 (28:46):
Okay, shock us first, Like, to me, it's all horrible
trade for an overrated player, but great situation to me
for Travis Hunter. Like he's got a team that is
totally all and believes the bullshit he's selling that he's
gonna play defense and offense. It's like, even though any
(29:07):
guy who's ever played in the league and current players
in the league are just like, he is going to
die if he tries to play defense and offense. And
I gave that that analogy to Chad, you know, the
other week. If he got drafted by Cleveland, I can
only imagine he gets laid out by Kyle Hamilton and
then the next drive they have him thrown in there
and he has to make a tackle on Derrick Henry Will.
He was going to die if he went to the
NFC North, So AFC North, so maybe he can get
(29:30):
away with it. Right, he's in the AFC South now
no one really cares.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
Maybe they can get away with it.
Speaker 5 (29:36):
But like this GM holy shit, talk about just thinking
he's got all the answers to the test and he
doesn't even know the fucking subject. Like this kid just
seems like he is always going to set the Jags
back another five or ten years. So I'm excited, Like
it's gonna be fun watching, you know, the house burned down,
or it could be this guy is a genius. Travis
(29:58):
Hunter can play both sides of the ball. And it's
like you nailed the pick then, because Brian Thomas Junior
to me is a great pick from last year I picked.
This kid did not make so they got to the
one receiver. If Trevor Hunter could be the number two
receiver and be an absolutely stud great, Like that's that's fantastic.
But me, me and you talk all the time. The
biggest issue we've had with the Jaguars is they can't
(30:20):
block for Trevor Lawrence, and they didn't address that. Like
they got an offensive guard from West Virginia at pick
eighty nine. That ain't gonna that ain't gonna change much
for that offensive line. So excited for them, high hopes
for the Jaguars. But yeah, plus three hundred, no, thank you.
I'm happy to wait and see how this crazy experiment
(30:42):
goes with this kid.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
It's so funny you mentioned the play in both ways
thing because I watched the draft coverage and I feel
like I'm being punked. Like watching a lot of the
analysts talk about Travis Hunter and how he's going to
be able to do that and how it might be
easier in the NFL because they play fewer plays, I'm like,
(31:05):
what the fuck is happening here? Am I not watching
the same league?
Speaker 3 (31:10):
Yeah, it's fun. It's fun to make up in your
own mind that this is gonna work and he's gonna be.
Speaker 1 (31:13):
But it's so dumb, and by the way, all of
this comes down to Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Yeah, like that's it.
Speaker 1 (31:20):
That's the ballgame is Trevor Lawrence and his ability to
be accurate and run the playbook and get the ball
into his weapons hands. By the way, with a brand
new coach, brand new coaching staff, like I am not
sold on this situation at all. I think the Browns
put themselves in a really good spot. I don't know
(31:42):
that the Jaguars are going to be playoff quality next year,
whereas like the next team we're talking about, the Indianapolis Colts,
they get Tyler Warren, who knows who their quarterback is
going to be, but either one of those guys, Daniel
Jones or Anthony Richardson are going to be in a
better position because they got a guy who a lot
(32:02):
of people thought could have been a maybe the fifth
to sixth best player in the draft. The Colts are
plus three twenty five, so not that far off from
the Jaguars. The market doesn't think there's much of a
difference between these two teams, I know.
Speaker 5 (32:17):
And people are gonna be shocked. This is not the
team I'm been in this division. So there's only one
team left, so it kind of gives it away. But
I liked the draft by the Colts. I Honestly, it's
it's a good, solid, boring draft, right. They took the
best available players I had on their board and.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
Didn't reach for people like Warren.
Speaker 5 (32:33):
To me, shout out to Anthony Dubundo, he predicted it,
you know, three two, three weeks before the draft, that
that's who they were gonna get, and I was shocked
the Bears pass on them. But again, the more you
dove into it, it makes sense, right, Like there's there are
questions that Warren won't but get any separation. If this
kid was a freaking college now he's in a different
level and that you know, he's not gonna project out
(32:54):
to keep getting better. So you know, fun interesting pick there.
The hope is obviously Dallas Clark, Like that's the dream scenarios.
They get the guy they've been looking for for forever.
But yeah, the fact they went tight end and then
went edge went d back, like we all like it.
You know, this is a team that it all comes
down to the quarterback position. So Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson,
(33:17):
I don't feel like putting any money on them at
this point of the year, but maybe that will change
come August. But we're sitting right now, Chad, I don't
have really confidence to put money on those either, quarterback.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
And you do want the Tennessee Titans at eight to one,
let's go.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
You do. You don't love it, look at that face.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
So I'm just curious. I don't actually have a strong
opinion on this one.
Speaker 5 (33:39):
So my view of it is this team that historically
was the worst team we've ever seen from a gambling perspective.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Last season like biggest, biggest blind spot, biggest miss by
far of the season for me and you.
Speaker 5 (33:52):
Chad was not just fading them every week and every
week I kept saying that to myself, and I just
couldn't do it because it was like, but they're getting
literally four or five points for free here and it
didn't matter.
Speaker 3 (34:02):
That's how bad Will Levis was. So when you really go.
Speaker 5 (34:04):
Back through and break down this team, he was such
a net negative for them. That their defense was actually
pretty good, especially against explosive plays, like they're actually really
good at stopping teams from explosive plays. They just got
grinded out by a lot of teams, right, They just
got worn down because tons of short fields, tons of
three and outs from their offense, and they just got
(34:25):
worn out defensively, offensively, there's a lot to work with here.
Like their offensive line, you saw, you know, you made
a big deal effect that the dad came over from Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
What's his name, Bill Callahan?
Speaker 3 (34:37):
Bill Callahan.
Speaker 5 (34:39):
He came over and you immediately saw that he did
make a difference to a terrible offensive line. Like by
the end of the season, their blocking teams were actually
pretty good.
Speaker 3 (34:46):
They weren't.
Speaker 5 (34:47):
You know, Will Levis was dying early on, but the
season went along. A lot of it fell onto him
just holding on the ball too long, him just being
a bad quarterback. I just don't see the same happening here,
Like this is a team that, you know.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
Say what you want.
Speaker 5 (35:00):
If cam Ward's a little bit overdrafted, you know, I
think people kept saying he had been the fifth or
sixth quarterback in the previous draft. I didn't think he
was that bad. I had him right there, right behind
Drake May. I view him as a guy that was
underrated to come out of high school. I think he
was like a one star as you were, star recruit zero.
That's crazy, and he just worked for everything he's gotten
(35:24):
and he just keeps getting better every stage of his life.
So maybe he hits the wall. Maybe what we just
saw him in Miami that is as good as it's
ever gonna get, or you believe and project out that
this kid is really smart football wise and he's gonna
transition really well into the next level, just like we
saw Jane Daniels do. Where these guys who are cool,
comp collective in the pocket, confident in the pocket, those
(35:45):
are the ones who can't transition the best into the NFL.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
So I know, I got crazy high opes here.
Speaker 5 (35:51):
I got a long rope. It's eight to one for
them to win this division. So that's that's my view
of it is. I think I got to take a
position here and come November they're all the way down
to you know, four to one or three to one,
and then maybe if I like you STI at that point,
I'll take a position on them. But I think you're
just getting way too long of odds for this team
that defensively is as bad as people think they're on offensively,
(36:12):
just with the quarterback change, I think we're gonna see
a major leap for this team. So get right for
a chet, We're gonna bet in Tennessee a lot.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
Brother Tennessee and Carolina.
Speaker 1 (36:19):
That's going to be our Super Bowl pick. AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs minus one thirty. Like, I don't know
that we'll ever not want to bet on the Chiefs
as long as this division exists. With Patrick Mahomes and
they did things that we thought they needed to do right.
(36:40):
They drafted Josh Simmons, the offensive tackle from Ohio State.
They drafted for speed at the edge. They drafted a
wide receiver later on, a guy who a lot of
people thought could have been a much higher pick. He
came in the fourth round, Jalen Royals from Utah State,
but he was injured and so people thought if he
(37:00):
could replicate his twenty twenty three production, then he would
have been drafted maybe second round. So they got guys
that can probably play immediately that they need to contribute immediately.
Plus they're going to have Hollywood Brown, Plus they're going
to have Rashi Rice, Like they're going to be better
by virtue of addition of players who had been injured
(37:21):
not coming back.
Speaker 5 (37:23):
Yeah, and definitely Rice as the biggest one, like them
losing him and the fact that they didn't really miss
it beat and they still just make it all work.
Just shows the level of greatness of Andrew reading this
team where they can just keep adjusting like chameleon and
changing their colors into whatever they need to be to
make it work for that team. And you know, offensively,
on paper, I look at this team as this might
(37:45):
be the best team they've had offensively since.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
The Tyreek Kelsey years.
Speaker 5 (37:49):
Like they've been winning all these championships basically off makeshift
offenses with a really good defense, and like Chad just said,
you know, adjusting the offensive line right with the first pick. Great,
that's what we all think they should do. Because they've
done a total reshuffle this off season over that offensive line.
They've let guys go, They've traded guys. I mean, they
traded a guy to Chad's Bears. Like they're just they're
(38:12):
moving pieces and then paying guys and trying to make
it all.
Speaker 3 (38:14):
Work because it's tough, right.
Speaker 5 (38:16):
It's like they paid Mahomes all this money. Now they're
trying to make it all work across the board, and
it's like, you know, that's the magic of all these
teams where like you know, the Eagles, they've had to
let a ton of guys go because they can't affording
when after the Super Bowls. That's what's so impressible with
the Chiefs is they keep making these super Bowls and
losing all these guys, and they keep going back, they
keep making work and it's just when are they gonna
(38:37):
get caught? Like it's that old uh you know, Aaron
Paul screamed with this guy. They can't keep getting away
from this. It's true. It's like, I can't believe the
Chiefs just keep getting away from this and this this draft,
I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
I think they nailed it like that.
Speaker 5 (38:52):
In fact, they drafted offensive lineman then went two defensive
linemen right after. I love that for them, Like, just
keep reloading.
Speaker 3 (38:59):
In the trenches. They're just they're so smart and savvy.
Speaker 5 (39:02):
So yeah, this is a team that, you know, great
value in my opinion, minus one thirty. This is a
team that's won the division seven eight years in a row,
something crazy like that. And it's because every year everyone
thinks in their mind that this is the year that
they take a step back, this is the year the
Chargers take the next step, this is the year the
(39:23):
Broncos finally step up. So it's a rare opportunity. Chib
minus one thirty for the Chiefs. To me, I have
a surprice that wont minus one seventy five. I really
liked this early value here on this Chiefs number and
minus one thirty.
Speaker 1 (39:37):
Sansas City Chiefs professionals. Los Angeles Chargers are trying to
be professionals, and I think they're getting closer. They're at
plus three hundred. They drafted mari and Hampton in the
first round. I know that Evan loved Hampton and we
had a lot of conversations about that last week when
we had him in raybaon On. I think they had
(39:57):
a totally good draft. Did they put themselves in a
position to be better than the Chiefs? Probably not, But
you can't get there unless you have Patrick Mahomes. The
real question for them is just another year playing with Harbaugh,
and he did a miraculous turnaround with them last year.
His team's always get that much better in the second year.
So if you're gonna bet on them, it's because you're
(40:18):
betting on Harbaugh and sort of the value of his system.
What's interesting to me is justin Herbert would get crushed
from the center of his offensive line, the middle of
that offensive line. Last year, they kind of didn't do
much in the draft to improve that.
Speaker 5 (40:37):
Yeah, and like, honestly, I didn't think the Church would
be that good last year. And what I relooked was
this kid Minter, like this DC they brought in that
totally changed the team. Like as much you want to
give credit to Horrorball, it was the defense that carried
them that entire season. Like they just basically ran it
first a second down, then you know Herbert would make
a nice plan third down. That was their offense, where
(41:00):
defense they kept getting stops and even against good teams
early on, Like I remember the Chiefs when they played
early on, they were really stout against them. And you know,
I get why the public is fascinating this team, but
I think they were a year early.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
And it's moved the number two much.
Speaker 5 (41:16):
I don't think there's any value here plus three hundred,
no value for me on this Chargers team. Like you
just said, this draft it was good, but it was
good in the sense that it's like, does it really
help them be so much better than they were last year?
Their run game was pretty stylid last year with a
bunch of nobody, so obviously Hampton should be a big uptick.
This kid seems like an absolute stud, you know, such
(41:37):
a horrorball pick and at that spot like taking a
running back where I didn't see it coming just because
they already have guys. But after they make the pick,
it makes total sense because he is so good. But
you know, looking at it over, the more I look
at their draft, I'm just like, Okay, it is a
horriball draft. Right he went running back, wide receiver, and
then a couple of guys in the D line like
(41:58):
they're just filling it out, trying to get better, like
you just said, trying to get more of his identity
as they go along here.
Speaker 3 (42:04):
But a plus three hundred that just feels like.
Speaker 5 (42:06):
Way too much respect for what they did last year
or last year felt very flukey based on the schedule
they had, and very fluke in the sense that Mint
during this defense was just out of this world how
good they were for the first twelve weeks. So yeah,
for value wise, I wouldn't bet them for this division.
Speaker 1 (42:23):
I thought it was interesting with the Broncos. Sean Payton
was really vocal all weekend defending Shador Sanders, talking about
how he knew the family. You know, he had been
in Dallas when Shador was in Texas and has a
relationship with them, and was truly saying teams are going
to regret passing on Shad Door Sanders. He didn't draft
(42:44):
Shad Door Sanders to be a backup to bo Nicks
at any point, no matter how valuable he thought the
placement might.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
Have been might have been. In the draft.
Speaker 1 (42:52):
They did draft that cornerback from Texas, Baron, who you know,
is crazy fast. To me, they're more interesting as a
play at plus three twenty five then the Chargers at
plus three hundred because we saw how good this defense was,
and we saw bo Knicks get better and better every
single week. So now all of a sudden they've got
another weapon in that secondary that makes them that much
(43:16):
more challenging for a team like Kansas City, which has
the best quarterback in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (43:22):
Yeah, you're gonna like it even more.
Speaker 4 (43:24):
Chet.
Speaker 3 (43:24):
It's plus three seventy five plus four hundred, so even better.
Speaker 2 (43:27):
Ma, dude should have put my glasses on for that one.
Speaker 5 (43:31):
No, it's to me, that's the value in this division,
right Like, I feel like you just nailed it. Where
we're banking on the year two jump from bow Knicks,
which we I know it's annoying people, but it's a
it's a real thing that year two jump with these
quarterbacks go through. You know Mahomes first MVP season, that
was this first year as a start, it was a
year two jump. Lamar first year's MVP year two jump,
(43:52):
you know, second season as a starter. So this draft,
to me, they nailed it. Like I love the quarterback
that got out of Texas and now you know your
secondary is one of your biggest straints. Now it's like
even more insane, like it's just another team that they
didn't force a draft pick. They didn't force a D
lineman that they do need. They took the best player
(44:12):
available on their draft board. And I loved it. And
you know, Harvey the running back from UFC. It'll be
unknown how good he'll be in the NFL, but he's
got all these free qualities to him. And I love
those type of running backs where it's like, yes see
the vision and a guy that you know, Peyton is
just like out of this world. He the stuff he
(44:32):
can do with running backs. You know, Darren Sproll is
the first one that pops on the mind what he
was able to do with him once he came down
there and Reggie Bush. Yeah right, Reggie Bush. He just
he can he can keep going. He no, but seriously,
he gets this vision for these guys and he can
mold the offense around them as well, which is something
(44:52):
very unique to Sean Payton and his offensive schemes.
Speaker 3 (44:55):
So you know, big big deal. They've done all this,
and our.
Speaker 5 (45:00):
View of it is just okay, the defense takes another step,
if bon next tacks another step, it's all there.
Speaker 3 (45:06):
Right.
Speaker 5 (45:06):
They have a coach who, in my mind, is on
the same type of level offensively as Andy Reid is.
And you saw that last year, like Bo Nicks. I
wish people could heard Man Mitchell talk about him coming
to the season this. I think most college fans buried that.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
Man.
Speaker 5 (45:19):
They're just like, who the hell are they taking their
first round and bone Knicks and he saw his year
went along like he fits so perfectly.
Speaker 3 (45:26):
Into that scheme that he was running.
Speaker 5 (45:27):
So really excited to see if they have a year
to jump or a team that could just be like
what they were last year they overachieved and just fall
in their face because bone Knicks is overrated and he
just got lucky after one fluke year in the NFL
so high upside team, huge floor, like really could drop
down to five six wins this up coming season just because.
Speaker 3 (45:48):
They were so ahead of the child. I remember they
had a run.
Speaker 5 (45:50):
At one point they had won like seven straight road games,
like very bizarre, how damnant they were. So yeah, this
is this is a team that you know, really out
kicked their cover left last season.
Speaker 3 (46:00):
We took them and take another step. We're gonna bet
on it, but I am nervous making this bet on Bonnicks.
Speaker 1 (46:07):
How do you feel about the Las Vegas Raiders at
sixteen to one with Gino Smith and Ashton Genty and
Pete Carroll as the head coach, I'd be tempted to
take their over season win total. Tempted because I do
think there's enough talent with Gino Smith and brought Bauers
(46:27):
and Ashton Genty, they will just be so much better
than last year offensively, and the market will keep them
being depressed.
Speaker 5 (46:36):
Well, something really depressing is I got this at twenty
to one, and then when they added Gino it only moved.
Speaker 3 (46:40):
To sixteen to one, So it just shows the books just.
Speaker 5 (46:43):
Don't respect Gino at all. I'm with you though, this
number feels insane. Like, like we said before, this is
a physical game. We've already seen Mahomes. You know, he
got injured on a touch push. That's why he doesn't
even do QB sneaks anymore, like his knee. Last time
he did a q YOU sneak, his knee popped out.
I remember that, and there's a reason they don't do
that with him anymore.
Speaker 3 (47:05):
You know, this is a fickle league.
Speaker 5 (47:07):
So it's like this, this Raiders team is going to
take such a huge jump going from Minshew to Gino Smith,
a guy who is smart and his patient in the
pocket and can read a defense. Yeah, like I hate
that genty win here, but maybe that pick saved my ass.
Like if he would have went after pick six, that
would have.
Speaker 3 (47:27):
Cost me an insane amount of money. So yeah, I
got really lucky he went there.
Speaker 5 (47:31):
Don't know if I love the fit for gent, but
it's like that's an instant a plus move for their
offense right Like this already this is already going to
let it be that the box if they ever even
try a stack against Gino.
Speaker 3 (47:44):
We've seen Geno.
Speaker 5 (47:45):
Maybe that was part of the DK effect, but to me,
Gino is best downfield, like him pushing the ball down
field is when he's at his best. For some reason,
it's when he's like you know, taking his time too
long in the pocket, trying to go through all his
motions that he struggles. So I'm with you, Chad. The
fact that this is sixteen to one. Still it's just
like Cleveland. We'll throw a little bet on it, just
because the crazy things that have happened. My big, big
(48:07):
bet like that, I'm gonna take a large position on
It's going to be the chiefs in this division at
minus one thirty. That's where if you want to lock
up your money now, that's where I would go with it.
But if you're like us, you love madness and the
crazy upside.
Speaker 3 (48:20):
Sixteen to one. Geno Smith, come on, let's throw a
little piece on that.
Speaker 1 (48:24):
We began our back to backs yesterday talking about mel
Kuiper and his meldowns about Shador Sanders and a chart
in which the exemplar, one of the exemplars of his
grading quarterbacks highly who then sunk down the draft, was
(48:46):
Geno Smith. We end it talking about how we believe
enough in Geno Smith they were willing to take a
taste on the Raiders at sixteen to one.
Speaker 2 (48:58):
Good for us, Good for that. We bring a full
circle light there. It is as a reminder of the Favorites.
Speaker 1 (49:04):
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Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty
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Speaker 2 (49:21):
And more.
Speaker 1 (49:21):
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North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohiopen Sylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
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Speaker 2 (49:39):
Terms.
Speaker 1 (49:39):
Condition restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our
next episode of the Favorites. It's actually tomorrow on the
Action Network YouTube page. We're talking Kentucky Derby with Mike Conti.
Download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pads,
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Speaker 2 (50:00):
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care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty
(50:21):
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Jason McIntyre
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