Episode Transcript
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(02:33):
You're at the volume. Happy Friday, everybody hopeful of you
guys are having a great week. We got a quick
show for you guys tonight. Obviously only one game as
the first round is winding down. And there was one
dynamic that I talked about as we left for Game
five as Houston blew out the Golden State Warriors. That
was Houston's pathway to make this a series, and it
(02:54):
was Fred van Vliet now brin Shangoon and then being
able to go blow for blow as score with the
Warrior Stars. And they did it again tonight, fifty points
from those two as the Rockets win one fifteen to
one oh seven, extend this series to seven. Heading back
to Houston and what has been just a wild series
(03:16):
with all sorts of twists and turns and different vibes
and different trash talk and different dynamics at play. We're
gonna be breaking that game down from the perspective of
both teams. After that, we're gonna take a couple questions
from you guys in the chat. After that, we're gonna
head over to playback. So for those of you guys
who haven't been over there yet, we're gonna be going
right after we finish here Live Tonight over to playback.
That's where we can be more interactive with you guys.
(03:38):
You guys can come on stage with us and ask questions.
We can talk about some of the specific details of
the series. I also have the ability to put film
on the screen and we could talk about some of
the specific dynamics that are taking place in this particular game.
So make sure you guys are ready after the show
to head over to playback to hang out for a
little bit when we get done here. You guys know
the job before we get started. To subscribe to the
Hoops and I YouTube channels. You don't miss any more
(03:59):
of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LTCA.
You guys don't misshow announcement. So forget about a podcast feed.
Wherever you get your podcast on our Hoops Tonight. It's
also super helpful if you leave a rating in a review.
On that front, Jackson's also doing great work on our
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you guys follow us there. And the last pan at
least kep dropping mail back questions in the YouTube comments,
and we keep getting to him throughout the remainder of
(04:19):
the postseason. So Fred van Vliet, as I mentioned, over
the course of this season, a jump shot for Fred
van Vliet was worth less than a point. It was
worth zero point nine to nine points per possession, points
per shot, and through the first three games of the
series it was a lot of the same kind of
thing I've seen from Fred a lot this season, which
is he's kind of an important, you know, decision maker
(04:40):
for the Rockets in the half court, just kind of
getting the ball into the pocket to Shanggoon and just
kind of keeping the ball moving from side to side.
He's kind of like the guy who greases the wheels
for them on offense at the guard spot and as
you know, kind of in concert with what Alburn Shangoon
does in the middle of the floor. In the last
three games, though, Fred van Vliet is eighteen for twenty
(05:01):
seven from three, which is just unbelievable six for nine
again tonight, that's literally the difference in the game he goes.
He goes three for nine, which is like in line
with the season averages. This is a game Golden State wins.
And you know, I talked after Game five that if
there was one little like kind of playing with fire
(05:22):
that Golden State did over the tail end of the
series was that they lost control of Fred van Vliet,
and specifically in Game four, he got a bunch of
wide open looks, really really good looks. If you guys
remember down the stretch of that game, that was when
we saw a heavy dose because of foul trouble. We
saw a heavy dose of like trace Jackson Davis and
(05:42):
Quinton Post trying to guard Alburn Shangoon and the Rockets
were setting up Fred van Vliet one pass away and
he was, you know, posting up and drawing that second
defender and pitching it out to Fred. Fred was getting
clean looks that way. Fred was getting clean looks on
offensive rebounds. Fred was getting clean looks on inverted ball
screens with Alburn shangu And you know, the Warriors have
kind of lost control of him, and they've lost control
(06:04):
of Shangoon, and now it's in a situation where you know,
ultimately what's gonna happen in Game seven is going to
come down to the play of the stars. I you know,
I try to be consistent as much as I can
on this show, and you guys know that I'll be
critical of stars first and foremost more than coaches, more
than role players. And one of the main reasons why
(06:24):
is because the stars are the guys with the superpowers.
The coaches can only do so much to set you
up for success before it ultimately becomes about the best
guys on one team creating advantages versus the best guys
on the other team creating advantages. I talked about it
in the Pistons Knicks series about how every series or
every game came down the stretch to a gap in
(06:45):
decision making and shot making between Jalen Brunson and Kid Cunningham.
I talked about how in the Lakers Timberwolve series, it's
come down to whether or not Luka Doncic could beat
his one on one defender effectively enough to get the
defense in rotation so the Lakers could play advantage basketball.
Because Lebron at age forty in Austin Reeves as a
(07:07):
lesser athlete needs advantages to succeed. Looking at the Nuggets
Clippers series, I've talked about how James Harden and him
consistently getting downhill and breaking the defense, of breaking the
defense down is what's necessary for the Clippers to succeed.
These are what did I talk about in Game six
when the Clippers won. I talked about Nikola Jokic in
(07:28):
the third quarter not doing the job offensively. And this
has been the case in this series with the Warriors,
when Steph has gone unreal offensively as a shot maker,
the Warriors have won thirty one points in Game one
on nineteen shots, he gets the win, thirty six points
(07:50):
in Game three, he gets the win. They managed to
win a game in Game four with him not playing
particularly well, getting a bunch of contributions down the roster.
But in the games where Steph has struggled to generate
great offense, the team has struggled to win. He goes
six for fifteen for twenty points. In Game two, they lose.
He goes six for thirteen or excuse me, four for
(08:13):
twelve in Game five for thirteen points, and they lose. Tonight,
when he was hitting shots through the first three quarters,
they were attached. What happened in the fourth quarter when
Steph went ice cold, the Rockets pulled away. And again,
there are lots of other factors at play. The Warriors
missed a lot of clean looks tonight. They struggled a
ton on the offensive glass, They struggled with several basic
(08:35):
pieces of action that they couldn't defend tonight. There are
a lot of things that the Warrior struggled with. But ultimately,
the one guy in these situations that has the ability
to overcome the circumstances and carry his team to where
he needs to go is the guy who is initiating
offense for you, the guy that is starting everything. And
in this game, while Steph did still generate a bunch
(08:56):
of advantages, he wasn't able to match it with the
shot make in that fourth quarter when his team needed
to make a run. It was right there. It's a
two point game, it was right there for the taking,
and they immediately lost control to start that fourth quarter
and they were never able to get back in control
of it. And like, I don't think it's a coincidence
that when Fred and Shangoon straight up out play their counterparts,
(09:18):
that the Rockets look like the better team, and that's
going to be I mean, if you ask me what's
going to happen in Game seven, you can talk about
Pods making shots, you can talk about Draymond being more
impactful offensively, But I really think it's this simple. If
you guys can do a better job guarding Fred and
you can get Steph back to where he was offensively
(09:39):
earlier in the series, you're going to win. It is
that simple. In my opinion, I've always kind of focused
more on the stars than other elements that are just
that come with variability. Coach can only do so much.
Role Players are by design inconsistent. That's why they're role players.
If they were consistently great all those things, they'd make
(10:01):
thirty million dollars. I've heard a lot of talk about
the roster, the roster the Warriors. The Warriors roster was
number one in defense after the All Star break. If
those dudes were all also awesome offensive players, you'd have
a four hundred million dollar payroll. Like, the construct of
this team is, we have Draymond Green, we have all
(10:23):
these ass kicking athletes that play super hard and play
super smart. On defense, we get a ton of stops
and Steph lifts us over the top on offense. That
is the formula, and this series has absolutely swung on
Steph's production starting to tail off in Fred van Vliet's
starting to rise to the surface. So like we can talk,
(10:44):
I've talked about this a lot last night when we
were talking Nuggets Clippers. When you get to this point
in the series, there's there's nothing really fancy about it,
you know, like the there's no schematic adjustment, there's no
thing that Steve Kerr can do. It's your guys versus
their guys. At this point, no one's surprising anybody. You
(11:06):
know what the shangun Fred van Vliet two man game
is gonna look like. You know, you're gonna see some
zone and guess what, Steph's gonna have to get those
screens from the top man in the zone and he's
gonna have to get downhill and make something happen. And
we know he can do it because he's done it
out of other points in this series. There's a lot
of different elements tonight that went Houston's way. I thought
(11:26):
Steven Adams was just absolutely unbelievable. He was plus fifteen
and thirty one minutes. Did pretty well at the free
throw line, which I think was important with the way
that Steve Kerr was deliberately sending him there. He was
nine for sixteen at the foul line, made enough of
them to kind of stiff arm the Warriors when they
were trying to use the hack of Adams strategy. The
offensive rebounding from him was huge. Shanggun just brought enough
(11:49):
of that tough shot making in the short to mid range.
The defensive work that every Rockets player did on the perimeter,
rushing the Warriors offensive players and forcing them into turnovers.
You know, it's the Rockets are playing. They're playing Rockets basketball,
and the only way you're going to flip this dynamic
is if you can get them to start missing some
(12:09):
shots through the strength of your defense. And then on
the other end of the floor, if you can get
more out of Steph, get more out of Jimmy than
what you've been getting at this point in the series.
Stephan Jimmy seven for twenty two from three tonight. A
lot of shots were going up, not as many were
going in as we know that they're capable of. I
want to open it up to the floor here I
want to I'm gonna bring Jackson on. We're gonna take
(12:29):
some questions. We'll stay here for Jackson. We'll say here
for about ten minutes before we head over to playback.
But again, we're gonna take some questions here for a
little bit, and then we'll move the show over to playback.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Let's do it. Let's do it. First, question about Steven Adams.
He's obviously presented a ton of problems for the Warriors.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the Rockets have
won two games when he's playing a lot more minutes.
Do you think the Warriors counter should be to stay
with the smaller lineup? You know what generally is more
effective for them as a as a team, or play bigger.
(13:03):
Let a big try to box to Adams while Draymond
gets to guard Shanghu.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
It's a tough question. I actually think the answer to
dealing with Steven Adams Moore has to do with the
offensive end of the floor. By the way, as we
look at the numbers, Quinton post in eighteen minutes tonight
was minus nine, So having that second big on the
floor wasn't exactly doing a ton of positive work in
this specific case, I look at it like this. There
(13:27):
was a stretch in the third quarter there where Steph
was actually doing quite a bit of damage to Steven
Adams in space, and that really is the key. If
you guys remember, dating back to earlier in the series,
one of the ways that Steph was having a lot
of success was he was attacking up the floor with
pace and getting on too Steven Adams and screening action
and then immediately attacking and drawing that initial dribble penetration.
(13:51):
When they have Steven Adams and Albern Shangun on the floor,
they've got to get those guys in the blender and
they got to make them cover ground on the perimeter
more and more. I did think that there were several
examples tonight, specifically Moses Moody and Brandon Pajemski, which is
ironic because the two of them were kind of the
more reliable younger players throughout this season. I thought both
of them took a few too many shots tonight that
(14:12):
were in that like eight nine seconds on the shot
clock where we can at least work to try to
get it back to Steph because at the end of
the day, like those guys just aren't gonna hit enough
of them for it to be that impactful. And I do,
I do think there's something to be said about like Steph,
putting a shot up is your best chance to generate
points and you need to get it like empty the clip.
(14:34):
Steph needs to be taken like a lot more shots
than even than he even has been taking in situations
like this when they're not going down.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah, yeah, I agree. There's We've gotten a lot of
questions about the rotation. Is Jonathan kaminga the guy? There's
a lot of potentially misplaced Maybe Pat Spencer should get
some run talk in the chat right now, I'm not
sure I would quite go that far. It's obviously comes
down to the stars. Like you're saying, if you were
going to make any sort of rotation adjustments for the Warriors,
(15:04):
is it more Moses Moody, more, Buddy Healed, more, Gary Payton,
more quintin post trace Jackson Davis? What what would your
sort of chess move be?
Speaker 2 (15:12):
I was surprised at how quickly Steve Kerr bailed on
Buddy Heild. I know he was in some foul trouble,
but like Buddy when he's been on the floor in
this series as like a counterpart to Steph's spacing, has
actually generated a lot of openings for Steph, mainly meaning
like when Buddy's on the weak side, he's at least
being accounted for, And like I just I thought he
had just a little bit of too quick of a
(15:32):
hook tonight, especially considering the fact that it wasn't like
Brandon Pajemski was hitting everything he was taken and having
some sort of profound defensive impact. Again, like, I understand
the desire to start looking down the roster and being like,
wh what if we get more out of this guy?
What if we get more out of that guy? But
this is just my personal philosophy, and I know that
(15:52):
there are a lot of Warriors fans that disagree with me.
I was arguing with a couple of Warriors fans before
the show, like, there are Warriors fans that are like,
Steph's doing his job, it's on everyone else. And I
don't disagree that there are obviously some elements down the
roster that need to perform better than they've been performing.
But I am a firm believer that the superstar is
(16:14):
the superpower and they're the ones that can overcome. And
so yeah, you can lean a little bit more into
Buddy Heeld than I would. I would lean into Buddy
Heeld specifically for that counter spacing, having less congestion when
Steph is looking to attack into the middle of the floor.
One of the things that was missing Intonight's game is
it was a lot of threes from Steph. Sixteen of
his twenty three attempts from three. If you remember, in
(16:34):
earlier games in the series, he was really aggressive in
the short to mid range curling around action, taking stuff
that was closer to the basket, and I think counter
spacing was Steph playing Buddy alongside him more. I think
would be helpful. While you're asking the next question, I'm
actually going to go up to cleaning the glass and
see what Buddies on off numbers are in this series,
because I think they're pretty strong for sure.
Speaker 3 (16:53):
And I think that's one thing that I mean, the
zone has obviously, the Rocket Zone has obviously thrown the
Warriors offense off in a lot of ways, and I
think the biggest, I mean, the reason why they deploy
one of the reasons why they deployed is working it's
keeping Steven Adams close to the basket, and it really
makes it never mind get the ball even inside the paint,
which they struggle to do. But Steph Curry is not
(17:15):
getting any remotely easy looks the inside the arc when
they're playing zone. It is very It has definitely been very,
very effective at its goal, which is to muck it
up and then keep the Warriors out of the paint.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Another question, really quickly, just so that you guys have
the numbers, Buddy Healed, has the best plus minus of
any role player in the series. The Warriors are ten
point two points better per one hundred possessions with Buddy
on versus off. Moving Gary Payton into the starting lineup
Gary Payton in this series, and you and Jackson and
I are both big Bro, but he is the Warriors
(17:52):
at thirteen point two points worst per one hundred possessions
in the series. When he's on the floor, I just
what I'm seeing with my eyes is the counterspacing like
they're Steph and Buddy are consistently on opposite sides of
the floor and pulling help defenders away from each other
and making life easy for each other. I know he
was in foul trouble tonight, but I did think that
he was capable of providing more than he did.
Speaker 3 (18:11):
Next question, this is not necessarily directed at you because
you are critical of stuff today, But why does it
feel like Steph gets less criticism than other stars?
Speaker 2 (18:20):
I I think I think all of this really comes
down to stand behavior. Like I like, I try to
be consistent. I openly came on the show after the
Lakers game. It was like Lebron was shitty on the
defensive glass tonight and it was a huge part of
why they lost the game. Like, I am a big
Lebron fan, but like, I believe in trying to be
consistent with that kind of stuff. I also know that
(18:42):
when I'm dealing with the general public, like every Steph
fan is gonna say he's never done anything wrong, He's
the goat, you know, you know, like, and then every
Lebron fan is gonna be like, why are we never
critical of Steph? And it's like most of the people
that I watched that cover the league do a pretty
good job of trying to be honest as and fair
as best as they can. And so I think, like
I think, honestly, it's it's just about like the echo
(19:04):
chambers online, Like, yeah, if you if you go online
and you are scrolling through Twitter and you're watching a
bunch of Warriors fans, they're probably not gonna be blaming
Steph for what happened tonight. And for the record, I
don't think Steph's at fault for what's happening tonight or
what's happening in this series. It's I always, it's it's
this simple to me. He's the one guy who can
save them. He's the one guy who can save them. Jackson.
Who was the one guy who could have saved the
Lakers in the first round.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
I mean it probably would have been Luka Doncic.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
It was Luca. Luca was the one guy who was
capable of saving them by being so good on an
island one on one that everything else trickled down from that.
Like that that I'm a big believer in. Like looking
at Moses Moody and being like, why can't you do more?
Is like you're you're asking You're asking someone who's not
capable of it.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
It's like you're playing like meme basketball, like why can't
this other guy do it? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (19:52):
Exactly, and like and and that's the thing it's we're not. Yeah,
when we're discussing Steph with respect to Damian Lillard, like, yeah,
I'm gonna start saying stuff like Steph's a way better defender,
he's way better off ball, he's way better at this this,
this net. But when I'm comparing Steph to Shay Gilders,
Alexander and Nikola Jokic and the guys at the top
of the league, like they Steph to me was playing
(20:12):
at a top five level coming into this series. That
was the level he was at. I thought he was
better than Luka Dancic coming into this playoff run, and
like he is again the one guy who can save them.
And it really is that simple to me, really quickly
before you ask the next question. Thirty four possessions of
zone for Houston tonight zero point eight two four points
per possession. I'm pulling. I thought it was particularly bad
(20:35):
in the Yeah, it was all in the fourth quarter
where they fell apart. In the first three quarters, in
sixteen possessions, the Warriors got one point three eight Jesus
point points per possession against zone in the fourth quarter.
In the fourth quarter against zone eighteen possessions, only six
points so yeah, when we head over to playback here
(20:58):
in a little bit, guys, we will all we will
watch all eighteen of those possessions and we'll see if
there's something obvious that they can get away from. But yeah,
the zone definitely picked them to part picked them to pieces.
In that fourth quarter. I thought Steph was obviously fatigued too.
Like I thought Steph got some good looks. I thought
Steph got three or four very makeable Steph Curry shots
(21:19):
in that fourth quarter that he just didn't make. And
I think, like I think there's a wear and tear factor.
I think there's, you know, some of the reality of
the variants that comes with really difficult shot making. But yeah,
I mean that's some crazy numbers coming out of the
zone defense there.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
That is crazy. Let's see one more question and then
we'll head over to playback. You talked a lot about
the formula for the Warriors in game seven. Is one
thing on each end? Can they defend the Fred van
Vliet Shanhun two men action better, dramatically better on the
defensive end, and Ken Steph Curry, you know, lift them
up with shot making the other on the offensive end.
If you were watching the Warriors, and you had to
(21:54):
pick one of those two things that're going into game seven.
You were like, they're doing this, check it off, they
are doing one of those two things when you pick
what would give them the better chance to win being
much much better defensively against that two man game or
Steph Curry. I'm not gonna say Steph Curry going godmude,
because that's the obvious. You know, if he gets fifty,
they're gonna win. But if he is a better shot
maker than he was tonight, I.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Think I think the controllable is defense. I think there's
only so much you can cross your fingers in hope
in terms of Steph's shot making, like and if he's
if it's there, they're gonna win. But this is the thing,
like they they won, and like there is a way
to win on Sunday in Game seven without Steph Curry
having to score thirty points, and it's you get Shangun
(22:35):
and Fred van Vliet under control. I think there's a
certain amount of like those. There's certain guys that you
don't want shooting, and there are certain guys that you're
more comfortable with shooting, like Jabari Smith, Junior gott To
chase him off the line, Dylan Brooks over three, A
Men Thompson over one from three, Alprin Shangun over two
from three, Jalen Green one for six from three, Like
they they need to be pinching and making sure that
(22:56):
specifically Fred is not getting looks, specifically Jabbari Smith is
not getting looks the other guys who cares, Like Tar
Easton made two threes tonight. If Tar Easton gets a
bunch of open looks in game seven, I don't think
they're going to go in at a super high clay,
but like they need to do a better job of
shrinking the floor. I would switch. That was I would
switch without switching, without conceding switches. What that means is
(23:20):
like like, try to do what you did on the
final possession of game four, bust through the switch as
best you can, but ultimately don't give Fred van Vliet
clean looks that come out of him slipping out of
action because you put two on the ball. And I mean,
there is something to be said about leaning into size,
Like you know, I'm not even necessarily talking about Quentin
Post necessarily, but just playing your bigger, better athletes as
(23:41):
much as possible in the game for the purpose of
trying to get more stops and get out in transition.
Because transition is another way that can get going. I
would lean into it in different ways like I think
they're I think with the starting group, I still really
like having Buddy Healed out there next to step, but
I think you need to have lineups set, especially when
Steven Adams is on the floor, where you're built more
around the athleticism piece and try to get out and
(24:02):
transition more. All right, guys, So, as we mentioned, there's
a link in the description, we're headed over to playback
right now. We're going to take some questions. Have some
of you guys come on stage if you want, and
we will watch some of the film from the Warrior
Struggling against the Rocket Zone. We'll see you guys over
there in just a few minutes. What's up, guys, There's
always I appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight.
They would actually be really helpful for us if you
(24:22):
guys would take a second and leave a rating and
a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us,
but if you could take a minute to do that,
I really appreciate it the volume