May 22, 2025 • 24 mins
Today we return with our deep dive into the 2025 NFL schedule release and NFL Spring Meeting, as hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter speak with Warren Sharp, the impresario of Sharp Football Analysis and a NFL schedule fanatic. Together they dive into the Buffalo Bills advantages, Brock Purdy, and so much more. #Volume
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network.
Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Mike cam Padre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello,
So I'm in Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
How we doing. We had a.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Great time with Warren on Tuesday. We went through potential
changes to playoff seedings. We went through tush push, We
went through the benefits of rest advantage, both from a
betting point of view and from a one loss point
of view. But we dug very, very deep into the
teams in this upcoming season that are getting the best
(00:48):
of the rest advantage and how that's indicating which teams
we might like the most when it comes to winning division,
win totals, futures, odds, et cetera. Again, a little bit
deeper with our friend Warrensharp.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Cisco.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Warren, you brought up the Niners and brock Perty just
signed this contract for fifty three million dollars a year.
And the Niners historically have been successful because they've generally
kept their costs under control, and they've kept their quarterback
costs under control. Specifically, while this is an outsized contract.
It's not like a break the bank for a quarterback
(01:34):
contract this year when you look at the Niners from
a rest advantage, and we've not We've said earlier they've
been getting screwed on rest advantages for the past three years,
and I do think it really came back to haunt
them last year with players going down again and again
and again and again. You look at the Niners, how
do you position them in terms of rest Because Simon
(01:55):
and I have talked a lot about the Niners as
being a team that we like as a futures beat.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah. So the other thing too, You mentioned all those
players going down. The one guy who should have probably
gone down but didn't is a dog Fred Warner who
broke his ankle in Week four and played one hundred
percent of the snaps the next seven straight games, did
not miss a game for the rest of the season,
even though the Niners only won six games that were
eliminated from the playoffs. So if he with his and
(02:22):
by the way, makes the Pro Bowl again.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
And just signed a contract to make him the highest
paid linebacker.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Well deserved, I mean, and but but to your point,
where is all the money coming from and the forty
nine Ers are one of those teams that's very top heavy.
They have a lot of obous, say a lot. They
have more studs than many teams do, and they're paying
those studs what they deserve. So then they're going to
have to get by with better players that are playing
(02:48):
on their rookie deals to try to get a fifty
three man roster that is talented enough top to bottom
that can withstand the rigors of an NFL season and
produce success. The Niners have been generally solid when their
guys are out on the field together, but I think
last season when you're talking about like a Yuk and
Debo and CMC and Kittle, those guys were on the
(03:10):
field with Brock Perdy, I want to say less than
forty snaps or something because of all of those injuries.
And so when they're missing guys, that's when it becomes
more difficult for Kyle Shanahan to elevate the rest of
the players. And it makes a lot of sense. Kyle
is such a genius when it comes to designing offense,
but he he's taking advantage. He's building everything into I've
(03:31):
got CMC here, here's all the things I can do
with CMC. Let's design unique things for CMC plus Kittle
over here, and we're going to work off of this.
We're going to use play action, whatever the case might be.
And then when those guys aren't there and the players
that are replacing them don't have the same level of
skill set, Kyle's working much many more steps behind than
most other offenses are able to because they don't have
(03:53):
such unique game plans designed to such unique talented players.
I mean Kyle Uschek and George Kittle, two of the
most unique players at their positions in the NFL that
can do so much. The Niners. Number one, we start
with something that doesn't even involve rest, and that's just
their general schedule. They play the easiest schedule of any
team in the NFL because they had that rare horrible
(04:14):
season from a records perspective, they haven't played a schedule
like this in a while. You know, they haven't had
a year where they've won only six games in a while.
This is a team that's going to the NFC Championship
more often than they're having a losing record. So this
team has been successful. Now they get an easy schedule.
Now they're rest schedule. I've got them as the fourth
(04:36):
easiest net rest edge schedule of any team this year.
And if I look at some of the details here
on the Niners, I rank them fifth best in total
netrest edge. They don't have any massive edges, but they
do play four games with more rest than their opponent,
only two games with less rest than their opponent. And
to Simon's point, and if you guys are on board
(04:59):
with the forty nine, if they get their main players healthy,
this team is a solid team. Everybody loves to hate
Kyle shaneon but the key to me is this, and
I said this before the draft. If they continue to
botch their drafts, which they've done a little bit more
than I think forty nine Ers fans would like, that
is why their team isn't getting over the hump. In
(05:21):
my opinion, they need to hit. They needed to hit
as a secret team that I felt really needed to
hit in this year's draft to then be able to
provide that lower end talent that's going to need to
play some snaps when they're paying all those bigger named guys.
So I've got higher expectations than most, I think for
the San Francisco forty nine ers because of their rest schedule,
(05:42):
because of the strength of their schedule. But they're going
to need this draft class to impact their twenty twenty
five season if they're going to get to where they
need to get. I feel like paying brock Party is
fine because of what he has been able to deliver
and how well he fits. He's obviously atypical. He's not
a prototypical quarterback. You know, he doesn't have the size
and the stature back in the pocket. So people are
(06:04):
going to say, well, this guy's not worth it. But
for Kyle Shanahan, he's worth it. And so in this
offense with Kyle, I'm fine with paying brock Party. You
just have to build up that bottom end of the roster.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Simon. Now that we've seen the schedule, who you're playing,
we've seen the win totals. We were talking a lot
about the Niners before we saw any of this. It
was sort of based on their team being bad last
year and getting healthy and what their odds were. Has
your opinion changed or is it strengthened. What's your status
right now with the Niners.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
Definitely strengthened because it was what we already knew. The
teams that were gonna play. We just need how they
were going to lay the schedule off for them. And
then once you see the schedule, like Warren't talked about it,
it's like the dream. Them and the Bills, to me
are two teams that really jumped out where the schedule
really worked.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
In their favor.
Speaker 4 (06:50):
And in the sense that this forty nine Ers team
we talked about, and Warren just alluded to it, that
they needed to hit in these drafts because they've had
to pay all these big time players and they're having
to make it all work chat and this this to
me feels like a really tight window here, because we
could either see them be a really good team this
season or one or two more key injuries away key
positions and then it all falls apart, right because they
(07:11):
have not drafted well. And you know, we've seen teams
like Detroit, Philadelphia, like these other teams in their conference
that have drafted well right, hitting on big time rookies
that have progressed into year two, and that's something that's
been lacking a little bit with that forty Niners team.
So to me, Payne Party, we knew it was coming.
The way the schedule broke all of it. It's just
(07:32):
lined up for this team. Like if McCaffrey's right, you
know you got solid back coach in that defense. Like
it feels like it's all lined up for this team.
And we know the Rams historically get off slow, so
it's gonna be all lined up for them, like get
out to a fast start, stay healthy.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
I mean, this is easy to be a team that
can make another run.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
And that's why, I mean you talked about them before
the season started, just they fit the exact same build
the Eagles fit the year before the year from hell
tons of doubt from the public perception, and we took
the early value. The number already moved up, so we
got good value on that number wed better early. Now
everything Warren's telling me, it's making me feel good where
it's like I want to hear other people saying they
have the same view as I do, which is grading
(08:12):
them out as a very easy schedule.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Do you have the latest number on the Niners Super
Bowl odds? Well, I asked my next question, see if
you guys can look it up or if someone like
that can tell me what it is.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
So they're basically when we opened it up Chad, what'd
you think we got it?
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Was it twenty to one?
Speaker 1 (08:32):
I think it was twenty to one, so that's what.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
I think we originally got a twenty to one. I'm
seeing most books now fifteen sixteen to one, so again
not being crazy, but still that's what we do it for.
Like that, plus four ngers are really nice something to
hold on to.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
I would not be afraid to still bet them at
fifteen or sixteen to one.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
That's fair and I would not.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Be surprised if come the start of the regular season.
You know, I love to do that round robin of
the teams that are are I think twelve to one
or less. I bet the Niners. As the season goes
on and more and more people take a bite of
that fifteen to sixteen to one, especially after listening to
(09:12):
the show, because we move numbers that it's going to
get under that twelve to one range. It'll be, you know, interestingly,
I think it'll be the Lions, the Eagles, Niners, who
are probably the three teams from the NFC with the
shortest odds that'll be part of that round robin. You
(09:35):
mentioned the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo Bills, the Athletic did a
story about this yesterday or two days ago. There are
numbers for literally spreads for every game right we saw
raybaun already put in a team total for the Eagles
in the first game of the year in the app.
(09:56):
Simon and I have bet the Cowboys at plus seven
and plus forty against the Eagles in the first game
of the year. But there are literally points spreads for
every single game, for every single week of the NFL
season right now. The Buffalo Bills. The Athletic wrote about
this the other day, the only team in the NFL
that are favored in every single game. I put this
(10:18):
in the Favorites podcast Slack channel last night and to
make sure Matt Mitchell was aware and he was not
in a good place with this. But Simon, you think
they're worthy of that?
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Oh yeah, it's they're worthy of it.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
But I mean, Warren's probably the same mindset I have
that Ravens opening week. That's a gift. You're getting Lamar
as a dog. It's not the playoffs. Like the playoffs,
I got why the Bills had the number they had
against Lamar. This is totally different. This is Week one.
Bill's historically come out slow as well, and then we've
seen it with Josh Allen that you know, he rallies
the team that carries them. We so much earlier in
(10:55):
the season when the guys are just figuring out. But
to me, the their schedule shots they play all the
big dogs. They're playing the Eagles, a team that Josh
Allen's never beat, and he's a favorite against them because
he is at home and he should be. It's it's
interesting for them though that you know, last year they
snuck up on us because they have seventy million in
dead cap. We thought it was gonna be a rebuilding year.
(11:16):
This year, it seems like everyone's on board. Right they're
what minus two to seventy five their division. They're big
time Super Bowl bet for a lot of bookmakers right now.
That's one of their biggest teams bet on right now
by the general public. So the fact that this schedule
broke the way, did I love this for this Bills team.
So yeah, if you're if you're hedging and putting a
lot of Bill's malefield, you know in your divisional parlays,
(11:40):
I can't hate it right now. They just seem look
a team that's going to easily get to eleven twelve
wins the way the schedules set up for them.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Chad, I might do a Bill's Niners' Super Bowl matchup
bet right now before the number on the Niners drops
even more. Get better odds on that. What do you
think of that, Simon?
Speaker 2 (12:02):
I love it?
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Thank you? I like it? What thing be? It makes
me feel vindicated and validated, Warren, give us your Bills
take Yeah, I.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Was going to throw in on the Buffalo Bills. You know,
part of the reason that they're favorite in every single
game is their four toughest games that they play this
year are in Buffalo. So they play the Ravens, they
play the Chiefs, they play the Eagles, and they play
the Bengals. Those aren't easy games, but they're all in Buffalo,
and so that definitely helps the Buffalo Bills. And then
if you're talking about a team that needs to exceed
(12:31):
their win total, obviously you want to play the toughest
games at home where you're most likely to have a
little bit of extra edge with your crowd. Easy games
on the road are never a bad thing, and the
Buffalo Bills play the number one easiest strength of schedule
of opponents on the road of this entire season. Their
road schedule is the easiest, so that's a positive. The
(12:52):
only negative to throw in there is that the Bills
from Week ten through Week eighteen, they're playing four games
at a rest disadvantage, only one game at a rest advantage.
They are minus ten days in net rest from Week
ten onwards, which is the third worst of any team
in the NFL down the stretch. But these games are
(13:13):
Week ten versus the Dolphins, they're at a rest disadvantage
of three days. Fourteen versus the Cincinnati Bengals, they're at
a rest disadvantage of three days Week fifteen against the Patriots.
The very next week they play the Patriots who are
off of a bye. We just mentioned while buys aren't great,
it hasn't been as big of a benefit to most
(13:34):
teams nowadays as it was back in the day. And
then they play the Eagles week seventeen at a one
day rest disadvantage, So that rest isn't beautiful. But everything
else with the way the schedule is falling for them,
I think is really nice for the Buffalo Bills. And
the other thing is if you just look visually, I'm
(13:55):
a very visual learner I like looking at things visually.
When I'm looking at the Buffalo Bills schedule, they have
like clear tent polls on their schedule. Week one, Sunday
Night Football, Baltimore Ravens at home. Week nine, halfway through
the season, Kansas City Chiefs at home. Two weeks off
after a bye week. They play the Carolina Panthers in
the middle there, so they got plenty of time to
(14:17):
rest and get healthy and focus on that since Kansas
City Chiefs game. And then Week seventeen, second to last
week of the season, they play at home against the
Philadelphia Eagles after playing the Cleveland Browns. So again you're
hoping that when you play the Cleveland Browns, when you
play the Carolina Panthers, you're putting up some points early
in that game, you're pulling out your guys a little
(14:37):
bit early, you're getting healthy, rested and focused on those
other big games that you have. But there's only three
of them beginning, middle and end of the schedule. So
I do think it sets up very well for the
Buffalo Bills. But it seems, guys, every single year it's
like if not now when like for the Buffalo Bulls,
it's always like when is the time that they're finally
going to get over the hump here? So maybe it's
(14:59):
this year, but we've been saying that for several years now.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
Look, we say that about the Bills, we say it
about the Niners. Warren, you said the magic words Carolina
Panthers in a look ahead spot for the Buffalo Bills.
Oh my god, I feel like that's Week eight. I
(15:24):
feel like we gotta bet that game right now, do
you know what I mean? It just feels like that's candy.
We got to take advantage of that.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, I love too, Like.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
There's so many things that just break Buffalo's way. With
deskcover that Eagles game Chad in Week seventeen, it's in
between two Washington Commander games, so like again, just catching
the Eagles in a bad spot when they're gonna be
really focused on their division obviously if the Commanders be
the team that everyone talks about them being the season.
So it just it felt like it's all breaking Buffalo's way.
(15:54):
And you're right, like they're a team that you know,
this window for them it's gonna be what two to
three ys here if they do this rebuild right like
they're they've kind of gone in a new direction where
you know, the offense it's really about you know, cooking,
Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things, and then defense will
be they're paying all their young guys. So I'm really
excited to see that the direction of this team this
(16:14):
pills the next two to three years, because yeah, it
feels like every year we're gonna be saying is this it?
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Like? Is this final? The year this curse franchise gets
over the hump?
Speaker 4 (16:22):
And if there's one guy to do it, it's going
to be Superman himself. Josh Allen like he's he's got
it all, Chad. Last year he was an inch short.
This year, we'll see if he gets that extra inch
and makes his way to the super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
What do we think of early season buys versus late
season buys? You mentioned the Bears. I feel like the
Bears are getting screwed here. But how does that play out? Historically?
Speaker 3 (16:51):
Warren Well more teams now have been able to request
their preference in terms of when they take a bye.
All the international teams are low the request exactly when
they want to buy, and then other teams can kind
of file a request. In the NFL, it wasn't long ago.
I mean, I guess it was. We're getting old now.
But like in the early two thousands when they first
did division re alignment, there was four teams that had
(17:15):
to buy every single week from week three to week ten,
and that was it, four four for every single week.
Now we've got four games in week four, teams in
Week fourteen that have a bye, and we've got four
teams in Week twelve that had to buy, and we
got a couple teams in Week eleven that out of buy.
Last year was a little bit more skewed to the
(17:37):
end of the season. We had six teams in Week
twelve that out of buy, and six teams in Week
fourteen that had to buy. This year, we don't have
that the last two years. Each of the last two years,
just as a little note for anybody who cares, zero
bye week's Week thirteen, and they try to get everybody
playing on that Thanksgiving Day weekend so they don't have buys.
Then they have buys the week before that, they buys
(17:58):
the week after that, and then it ends. But there
have been some teams with the seventeen game schedule that
and only one team getting a first round by in
the playoffs that have done some homework internally and thought
to themselves it might be more advantageous to have a
buy later on in the season. We wouldn't want to
(18:19):
have a bye let's say week four, Week five, Week six,
and then have to go all through the playoffs not
have a shot at like being the first overall seed
and then playing all the way through until the Super
Bowl having had no extra week off since you know,
early October. Many teams are trying to avoid that by
requesting a buy a lot later, but then you just
have to survive until you know, week twelve, Week fourteen.
(18:42):
So I don't know that we have enough data because
they just started doing these week fourteen Sorry, yeah, week
fourteen buys. The first season they started doing that was
twenty twenty one, So we don't have a whole lot
of data to show how much that helps these teams yet,
but it definitely has been a growing trend with the
(19:03):
extra game that they added to the schedule of some
teams requesting to have buys later in the year.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
You look at how physical these games are and the
way these players get beat up, and you really marvel
at the fact so many years went by without bye weeks,
and these guys were just going week after week after
week for sixteen game schedules. I'm not talking about the
sixties and seventies when it was fourteen games. Like the
(19:33):
bye is probably saving years on people's careers because it
is a signon this is a brutal, brutal game.
Speaker 4 (19:43):
Yeah, and we talk all the time too about how
there's no mystery here.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
The reason that one.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
Or two seeds usually make a far run of the
playoffs right easy because they're going to rest a guy
early or.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
They get that bye week.
Speaker 4 (19:55):
Like it's it's not like remember years ago, it used
to be, well, we don't know if you want to
rest players, we don't want them to lose their rhythm.
That's kind of died out now with especially with the
extended season that we've had, where teams are.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Just no like we just need to make it to
that get the rest.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
I mean, my favorite ever will always be Detroit last year, right,
they didn't take off the final week of the season
because Campbell's a psycho.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
He wanted to lose that rhythm.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
They had to buy a week and then they couldn't
find it against Washington. So you know that is something
that does happen. But yeah, my view of it, Like
my most interesting takeaway, especially with what we're talking about here,
is that you know, there's certain teams that you want
to look out there not on the main stage. Like
last year, a team that jumped out that I got
really wrong was the Vikings. Right, the Vikings had basically
(20:39):
no primetime games. They are a team that pretty standard
schedule chat always one o'clock, maybe four thirties, but they're there.
They had a pretty simple setup that you're a team
this year that really jumps out to me, it's a
unicorn team.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Is Tennessee a team that took the.
Speaker 4 (20:54):
Number one quarterback, number one pick zero games outside of
that one. I don't even think they gave him a
Thursday game, Chad Tennessee. So this is a team in
a very unique scenario of very simple all season one o'clock,
four thirty Sunday. I love that for a team that
I'm very interested in.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
This upcoming season in Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (21:15):
So those are the type of things where I like, Again,
once I get Warren's book, I'll dive into his information
on Tennessee, because that jumped out to me right away
of huge huge advantage a team that no one's talking about.
Born cam Ward barely talked about in the draft. The
scheduling guys reflected that giving them zero primetime games, I
could not believe when I saw it.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Well, Tennessee and New Orleans the only teams without primetime
games this year. Simon, you and I have talked in
abundance about the Tennessee Titans at eight to one in
the AFC South, where honestly, anything can happen, and there's
no reason why they couldn't be the Texans of two
years ago. I'm glad you mentioned Warren's book so I
(21:56):
can remind people go to Sharp dot Football all use
promo code action get his preseason Bible for one dollar.
One dollar. That's ridiculous. I mean, you're basically giving away
the best preseason football book that there is one. You
(22:17):
should be a shame to yourself. You should be a
shame to yourself.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
I don't want to even promote the book. You did
a great job with that. I appreciate that. I just
want to get on my soapbox for one second about
the bye weeks and just say one more thing about
these bye weeks. Teams care about when their bye week
is and they're trying to focus on it, and we
know there are seventeen games, and we know that only
one team has a buye in the playoffs. Teams need
(22:41):
to play every single game that they play a little
bit more focused on the fact that if we're up big,
we can take our starters out and they avoid all
the wear and tear. Injuries are going to happen league wide.
You never know when a player is going to get injured,
but what you do know is that they're more likely
to be injured if they're playing a hundred percent of
their snaps because the game is close all the way
(23:02):
to that final whistle. The twenty twenty two Philadelphia Eagles
were a prime example of this, jumping out to big
leads early in games so they could rest their guys,
they could stay healthier in the season. They made it
all the way in Super Bowl. Obviously, we know it
didn't end the way that it did just this past year,
but the Philadelphia Eagles are a great example. More teams
need to be aggressive early in games to jump out
(23:24):
to leeds, to be up at halftime, to put games
to bed by the middle of the third quarter so
they could rest these guys to get through the season.
I don't know why it's not a bigger focus. Teams
want to be ahead. Their number one priorities being ahead
at the final whistle after sixty minutes. Their priority should
be to be up by double digits entering the fourth quarter.
(23:45):
That would help their players stay a lot healthier throughout
the course of the season, and I wish more teams
cared about that than they do.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
Look, you're preaching to the choir, war on, because that
would also mean a lot more backdoor covers. Hey, everybody wins.
Start resting your starters. NFL coaches Warren Sharp, thanks for
coming on, Simon and I will return with our next
episode of The Favorites Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube
page with special guest Jason Bennetti. Download us from Spotify,
Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
(24:16):
leave us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as
a gift until next time, I love you. Action Network
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four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network.
Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Mike cam Padre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello,
So I'm in Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
How we doing. We had a.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Great time with Warren on Tuesday. We went through potential
changes to playoff seedings. We went through tush push, We
went through the benefits of rest advantage, both from a
betting point of view and from a one loss point
of view. But we dug very, very deep into the
teams in this upcoming season that are getting the best
(00:48):
of the rest advantage and how that's indicating which teams
we might like the most when it comes to winning division,
win totals, futures, odds, et cetera. Again, a little bit
deeper with our friend Warrensharp.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Cisco.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Warren, you brought up the Niners and brock Perty just
signed this contract for fifty three million dollars a year.
And the Niners historically have been successful because they've generally
kept their costs under control, and they've kept their quarterback
costs under control. Specifically, while this is an outsized contract.
It's not like a break the bank for a quarterback
(01:34):
contract this year when you look at the Niners from
a rest advantage, and we've not We've said earlier they've
been getting screwed on rest advantages for the past three years,
and I do think it really came back to haunt
them last year with players going down again and again
and again and again. You look at the Niners, how
do you position them in terms of rest Because Simon
(01:55):
and I have talked a lot about the Niners as
being a team that we like as a futures beat.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah. So the other thing too, You mentioned all those
players going down. The one guy who should have probably
gone down but didn't is a dog Fred Warner who
broke his ankle in Week four and played one hundred
percent of the snaps the next seven straight games, did
not miss a game for the rest of the season,
even though the Niners only won six games that were
eliminated from the playoffs. So if he with his and
(02:22):
by the way, makes the Pro Bowl again.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
And just signed a contract to make him the highest
paid linebacker.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Well deserved, I mean, and but but to your point,
where is all the money coming from and the forty
nine Ers are one of those teams that's very top heavy.
They have a lot of obous, say a lot. They
have more studs than many teams do, and they're paying
those studs what they deserve. So then they're going to
have to get by with better players that are playing
(02:48):
on their rookie deals to try to get a fifty
three man roster that is talented enough top to bottom
that can withstand the rigors of an NFL season and
produce success. The Niners have been generally solid when their
guys are out on the field together, but I think
last season when you're talking about like a Yuk and
Debo and CMC and Kittle, those guys were on the
(03:10):
field with Brock Perdy, I want to say less than
forty snaps or something because of all of those injuries.
And so when they're missing guys, that's when it becomes
more difficult for Kyle Shanahan to elevate the rest of
the players. And it makes a lot of sense. Kyle
is such a genius when it comes to designing offense,
but he he's taking advantage. He's building everything into I've
(03:31):
got CMC here, here's all the things I can do
with CMC. Let's design unique things for CMC plus Kittle
over here, and we're going to work off of this.
We're going to use play action, whatever the case might be.
And then when those guys aren't there and the players
that are replacing them don't have the same level of
skill set, Kyle's working much many more steps behind than
most other offenses are able to because they don't have
(03:53):
such unique game plans designed to such unique talented players.
I mean Kyle Uschek and George Kittle, two of the
most unique players at their positions in the NFL that
can do so much. The Niners. Number one, we start
with something that doesn't even involve rest, and that's just
their general schedule. They play the easiest schedule of any
team in the NFL because they had that rare horrible
(04:14):
season from a records perspective, they haven't played a schedule
like this in a while. You know, they haven't had
a year where they've won only six games in a while.
This is a team that's going to the NFC Championship
more often than they're having a losing record. So this
team has been successful. Now they get an easy schedule.
Now they're rest schedule. I've got them as the fourth
(04:36):
easiest net rest edge schedule of any team this year.
And if I look at some of the details here
on the Niners, I rank them fifth best in total
netrest edge. They don't have any massive edges, but they
do play four games with more rest than their opponent,
only two games with less rest than their opponent. And
to Simon's point, and if you guys are on board
(04:59):
with the forty nine, if they get their main players healthy,
this team is a solid team. Everybody loves to hate
Kyle shaneon but the key to me is this, and
I said this before the draft. If they continue to
botch their drafts, which they've done a little bit more
than I think forty nine Ers fans would like, that
is why their team isn't getting over the hump. In
(05:21):
my opinion, they need to hit. They needed to hit
as a secret team that I felt really needed to
hit in this year's draft to then be able to
provide that lower end talent that's going to need to
play some snaps when they're paying all those bigger named guys.
So I've got higher expectations than most, I think for
the San Francisco forty nine ers because of their rest schedule,
(05:42):
because of the strength of their schedule. But they're going
to need this draft class to impact their twenty twenty
five season if they're going to get to where they
need to get. I feel like paying brock Party is
fine because of what he has been able to deliver
and how well he fits. He's obviously atypical. He's not
a prototypical quarterback. You know, he doesn't have the size
and the stature back in the pocket. So people are
(06:04):
going to say, well, this guy's not worth it. But
for Kyle Shanahan, he's worth it. And so in this
offense with Kyle, I'm fine with paying brock Party. You
just have to build up that bottom end of the roster.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Simon. Now that we've seen the schedule, who you're playing,
we've seen the win totals. We were talking a lot
about the Niners before we saw any of this. It
was sort of based on their team being bad last
year and getting healthy and what their odds were. Has
your opinion changed or is it strengthened. What's your status
right now with the Niners.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
Definitely strengthened because it was what we already knew. The
teams that were gonna play. We just need how they
were going to lay the schedule off for them. And
then once you see the schedule, like Warren't talked about it,
it's like the dream. Them and the Bills, to me
are two teams that really jumped out where the schedule
really worked.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
In their favor.
Speaker 4 (06:50):
And in the sense that this forty nine Ers team
we talked about, and Warren just alluded to it, that
they needed to hit in these drafts because they've had
to pay all these big time players and they're having
to make it all work chat and this this to
me feels like a really tight window here, because we
could either see them be a really good team this
season or one or two more key injuries away key
positions and then it all falls apart, right because they
(07:11):
have not drafted well. And you know, we've seen teams
like Detroit, Philadelphia, like these other teams in their conference
that have drafted well right, hitting on big time rookies
that have progressed into year two, and that's something that's
been lacking a little bit with that forty Niners team.
So to me, Payne Party, we knew it was coming.
The way the schedule broke all of it. It's just
(07:32):
lined up for this team. Like if McCaffrey's right, you
know you got solid back coach in that defense. Like
it feels like it's all lined up for this team.
And we know the Rams historically get off slow, so
it's gonna be all lined up for them, like get
out to a fast start, stay healthy.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
I mean, this is easy to be a team that
can make another run.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
And that's why, I mean you talked about them before
the season started, just they fit the exact same build
the Eagles fit the year before the year from hell
tons of doubt from the public perception, and we took
the early value. The number already moved up, so we
got good value on that number wed better early. Now
everything Warren's telling me, it's making me feel good where
it's like I want to hear other people saying they
have the same view as I do, which is grading
(08:12):
them out as a very easy schedule.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Do you have the latest number on the Niners Super
Bowl odds? Well, I asked my next question, see if
you guys can look it up or if someone like
that can tell me what it is.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
So they're basically when we opened it up Chad, what'd
you think we got it?
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Was it twenty to one?
Speaker 1 (08:32):
I think it was twenty to one, so that's what.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
I think we originally got a twenty to one. I'm
seeing most books now fifteen sixteen to one, so again
not being crazy, but still that's what we do it for.
Like that, plus four ngers are really nice something to
hold on to.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
I would not be afraid to still bet them at
fifteen or sixteen to one.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
That's fair and I would not.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Be surprised if come the start of the regular season.
You know, I love to do that round robin of
the teams that are are I think twelve to one
or less. I bet the Niners. As the season goes
on and more and more people take a bite of
that fifteen to sixteen to one, especially after listening to
(09:12):
the show, because we move numbers that it's going to
get under that twelve to one range. It'll be, you know, interestingly,
I think it'll be the Lions, the Eagles, Niners, who
are probably the three teams from the NFC with the
shortest odds that'll be part of that round robin. You
(09:35):
mentioned the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo Bills, the Athletic did a
story about this yesterday or two days ago. There are
numbers for literally spreads for every game right we saw
raybaun already put in a team total for the Eagles
in the first game of the year in the app.
(09:56):
Simon and I have bet the Cowboys at plus seven
and plus forty against the Eagles in the first game
of the year. But there are literally points spreads for
every single game, for every single week of the NFL
season right now. The Buffalo Bills. The Athletic wrote about
this the other day, the only team in the NFL
that are favored in every single game. I put this
(10:18):
in the Favorites podcast Slack channel last night and to
make sure Matt Mitchell was aware and he was not
in a good place with this. But Simon, you think
they're worthy of that?
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Oh yeah, it's they're worthy of it.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
But I mean, Warren's probably the same mindset I have
that Ravens opening week. That's a gift. You're getting Lamar
as a dog. It's not the playoffs. Like the playoffs,
I got why the Bills had the number they had
against Lamar. This is totally different. This is Week one.
Bill's historically come out slow as well, and then we've
seen it with Josh Allen that you know, he rallies
the team that carries them. We so much earlier in
(10:55):
the season when the guys are just figuring out. But
to me, the their schedule shots they play all the
big dogs. They're playing the Eagles, a team that Josh
Allen's never beat, and he's a favorite against them because
he is at home and he should be. It's it's
interesting for them though that you know, last year they
snuck up on us because they have seventy million in
dead cap. We thought it was gonna be a rebuilding year.
(11:16):
This year, it seems like everyone's on board. Right they're
what minus two to seventy five their division. They're big
time Super Bowl bet for a lot of bookmakers right now.
That's one of their biggest teams bet on right now
by the general public. So the fact that this schedule
broke the way, did I love this for this Bills team.
So yeah, if you're if you're hedging and putting a
lot of Bill's malefield, you know in your divisional parlays,
(11:40):
I can't hate it right now. They just seem look
a team that's going to easily get to eleven twelve
wins the way the schedules set up for them.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Chad, I might do a Bill's Niners' Super Bowl matchup
bet right now before the number on the Niners drops
even more. Get better odds on that. What do you
think of that, Simon?
Speaker 2 (12:02):
I love it?
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Thank you? I like it? What thing be? It makes
me feel vindicated and validated, Warren, give us your Bills
take Yeah, I.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Was going to throw in on the Buffalo Bills. You know,
part of the reason that they're favorite in every single
game is their four toughest games that they play this
year are in Buffalo. So they play the Ravens, they
play the Chiefs, they play the Eagles, and they play
the Bengals. Those aren't easy games, but they're all in Buffalo,
and so that definitely helps the Buffalo Bills. And then
if you're talking about a team that needs to exceed
(12:31):
their win total, obviously you want to play the toughest
games at home where you're most likely to have a
little bit of extra edge with your crowd. Easy games
on the road are never a bad thing, and the
Buffalo Bills play the number one easiest strength of schedule
of opponents on the road of this entire season. Their
road schedule is the easiest, so that's a positive. The
(12:52):
only negative to throw in there is that the Bills
from Week ten through Week eighteen, they're playing four games
at a rest disadvantage, only one game at a rest advantage.
They are minus ten days in net rest from Week
ten onwards, which is the third worst of any team
in the NFL down the stretch. But these games are
(13:13):
Week ten versus the Dolphins, they're at a rest disadvantage
of three days. Fourteen versus the Cincinnati Bengals, they're at
a rest disadvantage of three days Week fifteen against the Patriots.
The very next week they play the Patriots who are
off of a bye. We just mentioned while buys aren't great,
it hasn't been as big of a benefit to most
(13:34):
teams nowadays as it was back in the day. And
then they play the Eagles week seventeen at a one
day rest disadvantage, So that rest isn't beautiful. But everything
else with the way the schedule is falling for them,
I think is really nice for the Buffalo Bills. And
the other thing is if you just look visually, I'm
(13:55):
a very visual learner I like looking at things visually.
When I'm looking at the Buffalo Bills schedule, they have
like clear tent polls on their schedule. Week one, Sunday
Night Football, Baltimore Ravens at home. Week nine, halfway through
the season, Kansas City Chiefs at home. Two weeks off
after a bye week. They play the Carolina Panthers in
the middle there, so they got plenty of time to
(14:17):
rest and get healthy and focus on that since Kansas
City Chiefs game. And then Week seventeen, second to last
week of the season, they play at home against the
Philadelphia Eagles after playing the Cleveland Browns. So again you're
hoping that when you play the Cleveland Browns, when you
play the Carolina Panthers, you're putting up some points early
in that game, you're pulling out your guys a little
(14:37):
bit early, you're getting healthy, rested and focused on those
other big games that you have. But there's only three
of them beginning, middle and end of the schedule. So
I do think it sets up very well for the
Buffalo Bills. But it seems, guys, every single year it's
like if not now when like for the Buffalo Bulls,
it's always like when is the time that they're finally
going to get over the hump here? So maybe it's
(14:59):
this year, but we've been saying that for several years now.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
Look, we say that about the Bills, we say it
about the Niners. Warren, you said the magic words Carolina
Panthers in a look ahead spot for the Buffalo Bills.
Oh my god, I feel like that's Week eight. I
(15:24):
feel like we gotta bet that game right now, do
you know what I mean? It just feels like that's candy.
We got to take advantage of that.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, I love too, Like.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
There's so many things that just break Buffalo's way. With
deskcover that Eagles game Chad in Week seventeen, it's in
between two Washington Commander games, so like again, just catching
the Eagles in a bad spot when they're gonna be
really focused on their division obviously if the Commanders be
the team that everyone talks about them being the season.
So it just it felt like it's all breaking Buffalo's way.
(15:54):
And you're right, like they're a team that you know,
this window for them it's gonna be what two to
three ys here if they do this rebuild right like
they're they've kind of gone in a new direction where
you know, the offense it's really about you know, cooking,
Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things, and then defense will
be they're paying all their young guys. So I'm really
excited to see that the direction of this team this
(16:14):
pills the next two to three years, because yeah, it
feels like every year we're gonna be saying is this it?
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Like? Is this final? The year this curse franchise gets
over the hump?
Speaker 4 (16:22):
And if there's one guy to do it, it's going
to be Superman himself. Josh Allen like he's he's got
it all, Chad. Last year he was an inch short.
This year, we'll see if he gets that extra inch
and makes his way to the super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
What do we think of early season buys versus late
season buys? You mentioned the Bears. I feel like the
Bears are getting screwed here. But how does that play out? Historically?
Speaker 3 (16:51):
Warren Well more teams now have been able to request
their preference in terms of when they take a bye.
All the international teams are low the request exactly when
they want to buy, and then other teams can kind
of file a request. In the NFL, it wasn't long ago.
I mean, I guess it was. We're getting old now.
But like in the early two thousands when they first
did division re alignment, there was four teams that had
(17:15):
to buy every single week from week three to week ten,
and that was it, four four for every single week.
Now we've got four games in week four, teams in
Week fourteen that have a bye, and we've got four
teams in Week twelve that had to buy, and we
got a couple teams in Week eleven that out of buy.
Last year was a little bit more skewed to the
(17:37):
end of the season. We had six teams in Week
twelve that out of buy, and six teams in Week
fourteen that had to buy. This year, we don't have
that the last two years. Each of the last two years,
just as a little note for anybody who cares, zero
bye week's Week thirteen, and they try to get everybody
playing on that Thanksgiving Day weekend so they don't have buys.
Then they have buys the week before that, they buys
(17:58):
the week after that, and then it ends. But there
have been some teams with the seventeen game schedule that
and only one team getting a first round by in
the playoffs that have done some homework internally and thought
to themselves it might be more advantageous to have a
buy later on in the season. We wouldn't want to
(18:19):
have a bye let's say week four, Week five, Week six,
and then have to go all through the playoffs not
have a shot at like being the first overall seed
and then playing all the way through until the Super
Bowl having had no extra week off since you know,
early October. Many teams are trying to avoid that by
requesting a buy a lot later, but then you just
have to survive until you know, week twelve, Week fourteen.
(18:42):
So I don't know that we have enough data because
they just started doing these week fourteen Sorry, yeah, week
fourteen buys. The first season they started doing that was
twenty twenty one, So we don't have a whole lot
of data to show how much that helps these teams yet,
but it definitely has been a growing trend with the
(19:03):
extra game that they added to the schedule of some
teams requesting to have buys later in the year.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
You look at how physical these games are and the
way these players get beat up, and you really marvel
at the fact so many years went by without bye weeks,
and these guys were just going week after week after
week for sixteen game schedules. I'm not talking about the
sixties and seventies when it was fourteen games. Like the
(19:33):
bye is probably saving years on people's careers because it
is a signon this is a brutal, brutal game.
Speaker 4 (19:43):
Yeah, and we talk all the time too about how
there's no mystery here.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
The reason that one.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
Or two seeds usually make a far run of the
playoffs right easy because they're going to rest a guy
early or.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
They get that bye week.
Speaker 4 (19:55):
Like it's it's not like remember years ago, it used
to be, well, we don't know if you want to
rest players, we don't want them to lose their rhythm.
That's kind of died out now with especially with the
extended season that we've had, where teams are.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Just no like we just need to make it to
that get the rest.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
I mean, my favorite ever will always be Detroit last year, right,
they didn't take off the final week of the season
because Campbell's a psycho.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
He wanted to lose that rhythm.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
They had to buy a week and then they couldn't
find it against Washington. So you know that is something
that does happen. But yeah, my view of it, Like
my most interesting takeaway, especially with what we're talking about here,
is that you know, there's certain teams that you want
to look out there not on the main stage. Like
last year, a team that jumped out that I got
really wrong was the Vikings. Right, the Vikings had basically
(20:39):
no primetime games. They are a team that pretty standard
schedule chat always one o'clock, maybe four thirties, but they're there.
They had a pretty simple setup that you're a team
this year that really jumps out to me, it's a
unicorn team.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Is Tennessee a team that took the.
Speaker 4 (20:54):
Number one quarterback, number one pick zero games outside of
that one. I don't even think they gave him a
Thursday game, Chad Tennessee. So this is a team in
a very unique scenario of very simple all season one o'clock,
four thirty Sunday. I love that for a team that
I'm very interested in.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
This upcoming season in Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (21:15):
So those are the type of things where I like, Again,
once I get Warren's book, I'll dive into his information
on Tennessee, because that jumped out to me right away
of huge huge advantage a team that no one's talking about.
Born cam Ward barely talked about in the draft. The
scheduling guys reflected that giving them zero primetime games, I
could not believe when I saw it.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Well, Tennessee and New Orleans the only teams without primetime
games this year. Simon, you and I have talked in
abundance about the Tennessee Titans at eight to one in
the AFC South, where honestly, anything can happen, and there's
no reason why they couldn't be the Texans of two
years ago. I'm glad you mentioned Warren's book so I
(21:56):
can remind people go to Sharp dot Football all use
promo code action get his preseason Bible for one dollar.
One dollar. That's ridiculous. I mean, you're basically giving away
the best preseason football book that there is one. You
(22:17):
should be a shame to yourself. You should be a
shame to yourself.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
I don't want to even promote the book. You did
a great job with that. I appreciate that. I just
want to get on my soapbox for one second about
the bye weeks and just say one more thing about
these bye weeks. Teams care about when their bye week
is and they're trying to focus on it, and we
know there are seventeen games, and we know that only
one team has a buye in the playoffs. Teams need
(22:41):
to play every single game that they play a little
bit more focused on the fact that if we're up big,
we can take our starters out and they avoid all
the wear and tear. Injuries are going to happen league wide.
You never know when a player is going to get injured,
but what you do know is that they're more likely
to be injured if they're playing a hundred percent of
their snaps because the game is close all the way
(23:02):
to that final whistle. The twenty twenty two Philadelphia Eagles
were a prime example of this, jumping out to big
leads early in games so they could rest their guys,
they could stay healthier in the season. They made it
all the way in Super Bowl. Obviously, we know it
didn't end the way that it did just this past year,
but the Philadelphia Eagles are a great example. More teams
need to be aggressive early in games to jump out
(23:24):
to leeds, to be up at halftime, to put games
to bed by the middle of the third quarter so
they could rest these guys to get through the season.
I don't know why it's not a bigger focus. Teams
want to be ahead. Their number one priorities being ahead
at the final whistle after sixty minutes. Their priority should
be to be up by double digits entering the fourth quarter.
(23:45):
That would help their players stay a lot healthier throughout
the course of the season, and I wish more teams
cared about that than they do.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
Look, you're preaching to the choir, war on, because that
would also mean a lot more backdoor covers. Hey, everybody wins.
Start resting your starters. NFL coaches Warren Sharp, thanks for
coming on, Simon and I will return with our next
episode of The Favorites Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube
page with special guest Jason Bennetti. Download us from Spotify,
Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
(24:16):
leave us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as
a gift until next time, I love you. Action Network
reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you
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