FantasyPros - Top 50 Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers (Ep. 1576) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Debro and Pat fitz Morris Fellas.
We are talking some wide receiver rankings today. I was
just saying to Debro before we started recording that when
the three of us are together, I always feel like
it's a Friday Key Questions episode in season. We're still
a few months away from that, but as I always

(00:21):
bring up, that's pretty much my favorite show to tape
each week when we're in season. So always enjoyed doing
shows with the three of you, fellas fits before we
dive in, where are you at? Kind of at this
point in the prepping for the season process, I'm.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
In the middle of my first redraft draft right now,
which is kind of fun. One of one of my
followers put together a little like half analyst, half civilian
draft and it's super flex and it's a lot of fun.
It's kind of interesting to see where some of these
guys are going and where some of the value is.

Speaker 3 (00:55):
So it's good to knock the rust off. But yeah,
that's it.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
Just like spruced up the rankings a little bit recently
and you know, working on some player notes some Dynasty content,
but I'm feeling pretty good. I'm ready for ready for
training camps for them.

Speaker 4 (01:13):
How about you, Debro.

Speaker 5 (01:15):
It's a player note season, baby, so getting through all
the positions, getting ready for best ball season, and just
tightening it up ranks. Man, we're I don't want to
say we're like at the precipice of redraft season, but
can we say it's like slowly heating up, like it's
on the horizon.

Speaker 1 (01:32):
Quick reminder for everybody that all of our twenty twenty
five consents, rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros
dot com slash rankings. If you want to kind of
follow along with those rankings as you work through the
top fifty wide receivers in those early rankings, you can
surely find them there. Basically, what we're gonna do with
this episode is kind of run through the top fifty.
We're not going to obviously deep dive on every single
player because we can't really be here for six hours,

(01:54):
but we'll kind of go through in groupings, you know,
roughly along the lines of where we have them tiered,
but not not strictly following those orders, and just have
some interesting conversations see where we agree, see where we disagree,
and kind of just get an early look as we
sit here in the second half of May, still you know,
three ish months away from most drafts, but kind of
getting a snapshot of where the receiver landscape, how it looks,

(02:17):
and how we think it might change in the next
few months. Sound good, Let's go top fifty. We'll start
with the top four. That is a tier on the
on the this by the way, we're looking at the
half PPR rankings on on fantasypros dot Com. Jamar Chase
number one, Justin Jefferson, number two, Cede Lamb number three,
Pooka Nakua number four, Debro. It's hard to imagine anybody

(02:38):
really disagreeing, not only with those names, but largely with
the order. You might quibble here and there with one
or two, but it feels that it's pretty clear top four.

Speaker 5 (02:47):
I think it's a clear top two my rankings. I
think there's a player that we're going to get to
that I think deserves to be in that top four
top five bucket. But jamar Cha is Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb,
Puka Takua. Like again, there's not a whole lot of
the discussion here. I mean all those guys to belong
inside of the top five, at the very.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
Least inside of the top how many for your actual draft, Like,
all these guys should be gone by what pick in
the first round deepro.

Speaker 5 (03:17):
All these guys in my rankings right now would be
gone by pick seven, like I've got it. In my
top six players, five of those are wide receivers.

Speaker 4 (03:26):
Okay, fits, what do you think I mean? Are these
are the right four names?

Speaker 1 (03:30):
And you know top seven ish in first half of
the first round is where they should all be going.

Speaker 2 (03:34):
So I think the top three guys, Chase, Jefferson, and
Lamb should be gone inside the top five overall, assuming
you're in a league where you have to start three
wide receivers, in which case that position is really important.
I would personally, even though I do have Pook a
wide receiver four, he is part of my tier two

(03:54):
and I think there is a case for some other
guys to be ranked ahead of him. But like, I
think Chase is pretty clear wide receiver number one. Uh,
And then I think you could debate Jefferson versus Lamb
for wide receiver two. And then I think it's kind
of a big second tier.

Speaker 1 (04:12):
Is Chase the number one overall pick By the way,
here's for me.

Speaker 5 (04:17):
He is for me?

Speaker 4 (04:18):
I think, I mean it's it's Immer Saquon, right, or
would you make the case.

Speaker 5 (04:22):
For me, it's it's Chaser Bijon one for this year.

Speaker 4 (04:27):
Is it the same for you? Fits? Is it Jon
or would it be Chas or Sauon you're picking.

Speaker 3 (04:30):
Up It's it's Chaser Bjeon for me.

Speaker 2 (04:32):
Also, you know, I'm definitely a little terrified of Saquon's
heavy workload last year, which really added up if you
cut the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (04:41):
That'll be fun to do when we do a running
back version of this episode. But yeah, Chase, Jefferson, Lambnkua,
we're not arguing too much there. Maybe with Puka you
could argue. In the next tier down, that's kind of
a group of names. It's it's kind of a larger
group here. It's A'min Ross, Saint Brown, Malik Neighbors, Nico Collins,
Brian Thomas Junior, A J.

Speaker 4 (04:58):
Brown, Drake London, and Lad mccon Hocky.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
That that is what the tier is in terms of
ECR right now, I think most people would look at
the top few names as you're clearly taking Saint Brown
and Melik Neighbors ahead of you know, Lad McConkie, for example,
as much as you might like Lad. So maybe there
should be really a tier within there, kind of those
that first group of names guys Mom and Ra, Malik Neighbors,

(05:20):
Nico Collins fits. Is this where you have Puka kind
of in with those names.

Speaker 2 (05:24):
Yes, I've got him at the top of that tier.
And I think there's a case that you could put
either of the LSU guys, Malik Neighbors or Brian Thomas
Junior I head of Pooka. But you know, I still
feel I still feel pretty good about Pooka despite the
addition of DeMont Adams and what that might mean for
his target share.

Speaker 1 (05:41):
Debra, who is the name that you have you said,
possibly ahead of Puka here in your top in your
top four.

Speaker 5 (05:48):
It's Brian Thomas Junior Man. He is my wide receiver
three this year. The only guys that I have above
him are Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson. And this comes
down to he is one of like, if I want
to rank a guy this high, and I think we're
also being like easier is being a little dismissive like
Brian Thomas Junior at wide receiver eight. I think is
honestly very dismissive considering what he did to tail end

(06:10):
of last year with Mac Jones as freaking quarterback. Like
after weeks thirteen through eighteen, this dude was the wide
receiver two in fantasy points per game, behind only Jamar Chase.
So can we not say that every single thing has
gotten better for him this offseason? No, One'm not worried
about Travis Hunter taking away targets. They are going to
be the twin pillars of that passing attack. Trevor Lawrence

(06:32):
back healthy, Liam Cohen in town. I don't see where
he doesn't have an access point to being the wide
receiver one overall this year and being in the conversation
with Jefferson and Chase, So yeah, he's gonna be my
wide receiver three throughout the rest of the process.

Speaker 1 (06:48):
Couldn't the debra Could you make a similar argument from
elak Neighbors where he just had this insane rookie season
with terrible quarterback play and now they have a rookie
that you like quite a bit there, and I mean
he's still gonna like a dominant target share guy in
this offense, you would think, and he was so insanely
good when he was on the field last year.

Speaker 4 (07:05):
With that quarterbacks he's reaching. He's also still pretty young.

Speaker 1 (07:08):
So I feel like a lot of I mean, the
situation is better for Thomas. I think most would agree,
but I feel like you could make a similar case
for Neighbors taking a step up from what is already
a very high starting point.

Speaker 5 (07:18):
I can't. And this all comes down to quarterback play.
And as much as I love Jackson Dart, he's still
an unown commodity and I don't even know if we
see him play unless we're talking about is Jamis Winston playing.
I can't get there because if Russell Wilson is starting games,
if he starts the entire season, it will impact Melik
Neighbors and we could talk about all the bad quarterback play.

(07:39):
The other part about Milite Neighbors, and honestly, like I've
got him below consensus, I've got Miliite Neighbors at wide
receiver nine because I'm worried about Russell Wilson limiting his ceiling.
What have we seen of the last two years, guys,
That's what Russell Wilson does. He doesn't access the middle
of the field. It's all go balls or nothing, and
he's going to impact how fast that offense, how much

(08:00):
they throw the ball. I mean, George Pickens, we made
the same kind of conversation last year, and yes we
could talk about the snap chare is going up and
down and stuff like that. But also the year before that,
Courtland Sutton similar kind of thing where it was like
he's the only guy to catch passes. Russell Wilson ruined
both of their seasons. So I still like Molie Neighbors
and I still have him as a wide receiver one

(08:20):
because of his talent. But Russell Wilson's starting games. Even
if I think Jackson Dart gets on the field, and
I do think that happens or Jamis Winston, Russell Wilson
still caps his ceiling for as long as he will
be the starting quarterback for the Giants.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
Do you think Russell Wilson is a worse quarterback for
him for fantasy than the situation he was in last year?
I do, because you have him ranked lower than he
finished last year.

Speaker 5 (08:43):
So I do. And the other part that I hadn't
even mentioned, what are we going to talk about the
defensive upgrades. If this is a team that is playing
and I know their schedule is brutal, but if this
is a team that is playing not catch up and
throwing the ball a ton, but if they're in neutral
game scripts or heck, if they're winning some of these
games because their defense is so dramatically improved from last
year as well, that's going to impact the passing rates.

Speaker 1 (09:06):
Fitz, what do you think, because I look at it
very differently from Debro. I'm like, there's no way a
healthy Milik Neighbors is getting fewer than like twelve targets
a game at worst. And I do think that in
the course of the season, because I don't think Russ
is going to start the whole year. I think in
the course of the season it is a quarterback upgrade
compared to what was last year, and he was so
good already as a rookie. Like I think, I'm clearly,

(09:27):
based on this conversation, much higher Neighbors than Debra is.

Speaker 2 (09:29):
What do you think, Fitz, I'm with you, like Ross, Yeah,
we're not getting vintage Seattle era Ross, but still he
averaged two hundred and twenty five passing yards a game
and seven point four yards per.

Speaker 3 (09:40):
Attempt last season.

Speaker 2 (09:41):
It's not like we're facing a Saints type quarterback situation, sorry, Deebro,
where it's Tyler Shacker or Jay Hayner or Spencer Rattler.
Like you know, I think the Giants are going to
get competent quarterbacking. There is a scenario where maybe we
get Jamis for a few starts, which would be a
be for all his past catchers and especially Neighbors, and uh,

(10:05):
you know, maybe we get some Jackson Dark two. Deebro
likes him more than I do, but not necessarily a
bad thing for Elik Neighbors. So I yeah, to me,
Neighbors is still I've got him at wide receiver five,
but I have not fully come to terms with how
I want to rank Pooka Neighbors and Brian Thomas. To me,
that's a really tight bunching at four through six.

Speaker 4 (10:26):
Very do you any go ahead?

Speaker 5 (10:27):
Malik Neighbors has wide receiver one overall upside because to
rank him that high, I think like he has to
have that type of upside for me, and I don't
see that at all from a Neighbors I do.

Speaker 1 (10:37):
I think, I think, I think Brian Thomas Junior has
a better chance at being wide receiver one overall this
year than Neighbors does. But I would say Neighbors has
that kind of upside, especially if I mean, if if
Dart is as good as as you believe he is, Debro,
then I think he will start early in the season.
I mean just a first round quarterbacks. Always they start
earlier and earlier. It feels like every year. And I

(10:57):
think if he is good, Neighbors was so good last year.
And again, this depth chart is not imposing. There's there's
no Travis Hunter here that's going to take away targets
right like there like he is going to get every
target he can handle. So I do think there is
that kind of upside.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
Put it this way, Deebro, if I told you Jamis
Winston was going to make ten starts this year, would
you think that Malik Neighbors had wide receiver one upside?

Speaker 5 (11:20):
I would This is a Russ thing. I don't like Russ,
and I think he hurts this overall offense. I think
it's very fair as Russ the number of starts that
he makes this year will hurt Malik Neighbors. If you
were telling me this is Winston. Yeah, i'd be I
would bump up my ranking. He'd be a top five
wide receiver for me, no doubt.

Speaker 1 (11:37):
I don't think there's a ton of argument about some
of these other guys here. I mean I'm a little
I'm not worried about aman Ros Saint Brown. He's really good,
but I'm curious to see what the offense looks like
without Ben Johnson. I mean, this is still a first
round pick. I'm not, like I said, I'm not overly concerned.
You know, Nico Collins, I think a lot of people
are going to agree with where he's at. Aj Brown, deebro,
do you want to take twenty seconds?

Speaker 4 (11:55):
Is clear? The paint on Drake London.

Speaker 5 (11:58):
Dude, I love Drake London. I think ceiling is so
much higher with Michael Pennix. Like I've got Drake London
as wide receiver seven. I think he is a dark
horse candidate for wide receiver one overall this year. You
look at how much consolidation, because really the path for
any one of those guys to say you have a
path for wide receiver one overall, there doesn't need to
be a ton of target competition that's going to impact

(12:21):
you getting to you probably need ten to twelve touchdowns
at least. You're probably gonna need to sniff in that
one sixty to one eighty target range. Who's taken that
away from Drake London. If Michael Pennix can unlock and
we saw this over the back half of the season,
unlock what we haven't seen from Drake London, and that's
the downfield role. Darnold Mooney, Kyle Pitts. They're not taking

(12:43):
away right red zone targets away from Drake London. So
if they're not going to take away the red zone
targets away from Drake London, he's getting the red zone usage,
so the touchdowns can be there, the downfield usage and
not all this checkdown Charlie crap we got from last
year out of Kirk Cousins. That's what can elevate Drake London.
It gives him that type of ceiling.

Speaker 1 (13:01):
Does lad McConkie belong in this tier? I mean, you
guys all have and ericson two. You're all in consensus.
You have him wide receiver eleven this year, which is
where he is in ECR. But do you see that
as a part of this tier two or more the
top end of tier three fits.

Speaker 2 (13:17):
I'm okay with putting him in this tier, but like
he's clearly at the bottom of the tier. To me,
it's either that or he's clearly at the top of
the next tier. Like he's almost a firewall between.

Speaker 3 (13:28):
The two tiers.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
Okay, Can I I expand on what you were saying
about Amenra?

Speaker 3 (13:32):
Real quick?

Speaker 4 (13:33):
Go ahead.

Speaker 2 (13:34):
I mean it's for me, it's not just Ben Johnson leaving,
although that is definitely a concern. Like his fantasy scoring
was down last year, Amanra went from seventeen half point
PPR Fantasy points per game in twenty twenty three to
fifteen point two last year. That's still really good, of course,
but for Amana Saint Brown to get within two fantasy

(13:55):
points per game of where he was in twenty twenty three,
he needed to set a career touchdowns with twelve last year,
and he boosted his catch rate by nine percentage points
to a career high eighty one point six percent, which
is just nuts. He had been living in the low seventies.
Eighty one point six and it's because his targets fell off.

(14:16):
He went from ten point three targets a game in
twenty twenty three to eight point three targets per game
in twenty twenty four and like two fewer targets a game.
The emergence of Jamison Williams was a big part of that,
I think, and that's why I'm not like, I don't
think Amana is a slam dunk middle of the first
round wide receiver anymore. I think he's more like a
guy you should be looking at on the turn in

(14:37):
the first round of redraft.

Speaker 1 (14:40):
We've got to move on debro. But do you have
any just quick thoughts in Saint Brown. I know you've
been a big fan of his in the past.

Speaker 5 (14:45):
I don't disagree with anything that fits he said, I've
got Amina as my eleventh overall player. I've got a
swath of running backs ahead of him, and I think
he did he belongs on the turn. I just think,
like Aman, my problem with Amina is I don't see
an out where he just absolutely buries me and burns
me as the wide receiver one overall.

Speaker 4 (15:04):
And if that's the.

Speaker 5 (15:04):
Case, he's just a mid tier, low end wide receiver one.
I mean, there's a lot of guys we could talk
ourselves in two with that.

Speaker 1 (15:11):
Do you guys think actually, before I move on from
this tier, I see it as there's maybe about five
running backs that are kind of sprinkled in amongst these
first eleven receivers at some point in your rankings. But
I kind of feel like all eleven of these receiver
names we've just mentioned should be off the board by
about pick sixteen, because I really don't think outside of
you know, Bijeon Gibbs, Barkley Genty, Derrick Henry, like maybe

(15:34):
you throw another one in there. For me, it's really
probably those five. Outside of that, I want my first
two picks to be coming from this pool of receivers.
Do you see it similarly, debro.

Speaker 5 (15:44):
Or No, I think I have more running backs in there.
Like I think Christian McCaffrey deserves to be back in
this conversation. I think Bucky I'm.

Speaker 4 (15:51):
Too scared to draft McCaffrey. I can't take him over
a receiver.

Speaker 5 (15:55):
I'm just saying where I'm at. I'm back on CMC.
I think Bucky Irving deserves to be in this conversation.
I think Derrick Henry. I'm honestly shocked, shocked worm that
you don't believe that Derrick Henry deserves to be in
that kind.

Speaker 1 (16:05):
Of No, I say, I would say Henry is the
fifth of this, I'd say Bjeon, Gibbs, Barkley, Gent Henry.

Speaker 5 (16:09):
But the other part about it is I think that
in the inside the top twenty, the two top tight ends,
Trey McBride and Brock Bowers deserve to be in that
conversation too, so that that pushes down the back end
of this wide receiver tier form.

Speaker 1 (16:20):
Okay, so do you see it that way too, fifs,
Because for me, the back end of this receiver tier
I would definitely rather take than Like I like those
tight ends, but I would just rather take one of
these receivers.

Speaker 2 (16:28):
And then I do the top ten receivers in the
top fifteen overall, and then mconkie, I've got a little
further down, I've got some I've got a group of
running backs in between number ten, AJ Brown and then
Lad McConkie at at eleven.

Speaker 1 (16:42):
Okay, and is it the similar group of names about
running back fits? I mean, like obviously Jean gives Barkley Gent.

Speaker 2 (16:48):
Yeah, I mean I've got those five squeezed into the
top fifteen, and then the guys I've got in front
of McConkie are guys like h Chen and Josh Shacobs
and Bucky Irving.

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Speaker 4 (18:26):
All right, guys.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
The next group of names here Jackson Smith and Jigua.
This is starting at wide receiver twelve Jackson Smith and
Jigba T Higgins, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Terry McClure, and
Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.

Speaker 4 (18:36):
That runs from wide Receiver twelve to eighteen.

Speaker 1 (18:39):
I want to hit on a couple of these names,
but I know the big disagreement here is going to
be DeVante Adams. Based on your guys' rankings, Debra, I'll
let you go first on why this is too.

Speaker 5 (18:47):
Low, Dude. Matthew Stafford is a king maker. We've seen
this year after year after year, and I think that
we're seeing we're going to see again. I'm and we've
discussed this on other shows, but I'm lower on Kiro
and Williams. I think that Matthew Stafford and we're looking
at what he's done as a quarterback over the last
few years. I think, and we all like to talk
about regression. We could talk about regression in a positive sense.

(19:09):
Matthew Stafford has had horrible passing touchdown rates, and what
are we seeing out of his pass game, weapons like
Cooper Cup fading to an endto oblivion. We talk about
Pookinakoua not being healthy, Tyler Higbee just being a supporting guy.
Matthew Stafford three point three, four point six, three point
nine passing touchdown rates. I'm old enough to remember in
his first year with the Rams six point eight percent.

(19:32):
So I think we're gonna get more passing touchdowns. Come
back to this offense. I've got DeVante Adams as my
wide receiver ten. I know that's aggressive, but Adams showed
no fall off last year with the Jets. Like after
he got to the Jets, he was top twenty eight
in both separation rate route win rate. He was on
pace for almost one hundred and eighty targets, and he
was the wide receiver seven and fantasy points per game,

(19:54):
Like he was giving Garrett Wilson a run for his
money every single week. And we could talk about okay, fine,
that's air Rogers and stuff like that. Matthew Stafford also
hyper targets, guys. It's legit, just Adams and Puka and
you want to throw Tyler Higbee into that that trio,
but he's a very distant third. I mean, both of
these guys are gonna get one hundred and sixty plus
targets this year, and Adams hasn't fallen off at all.

(20:14):
He's a wide receiver one.

Speaker 4 (20:16):
You said you have him at ten, and then did
you say you do have Pookah at.

Speaker 1 (20:19):
Four or did you have a Pooka at four? Yep,
ook at four. And then Adams at ten fits.

Speaker 4 (20:24):
What do you think?

Speaker 2 (20:25):
Yeah, just to give people a little peek behind the
curtain here. When we were briefly messaging each other about
the show over the weekend, mainly just figuring out when
exactly were going to record it, Debro said something like,
you know, the sec R for DeVante Adams is crazy,
and like I could just feel the contempt oozing from
Dee Bro as I'm reading this message. And then I
look at ECR. He's at wide receiver eighteen. I look

(20:47):
at my rankings, He's wide receiver seventeen. It's like, Okay,
I guess Geeverro and I are going to fight about this. Yeah,
And look, none of what I'm going to say is
meant to disparage the abilities of Devanta Adams.

Speaker 3 (20:58):
I'm a I'm a Green Bead Packers fan.

Speaker 2 (20:59):
I love Davante, but we have to acknowledge that, you know,
DeVante is playing with another prolific target earner in Puka,
and that Davante is now thirty two, and like, even
though Puka and DeVante are going to combine for a
big percentage of team targets for the Rams, that target
percentage is still likely to be under fifty percent, I
mean not not far under, but still under fifty percent.

(21:23):
And for Puka and Davante to both finish as top
ten receivers, we are obviously talking about a big, juicy
season for Matthew Stafford. Like let's open the bidding at
four thousand yards and thirty touchdowns. That's probably the bare
minimum Stafford would need to float top ten fantasy seasons
for two receivers. I mean, you could certainly do it,

(21:44):
and has done it. But Stafford has only hit thirty
touchdowns once in the last nine years and he's thirty
seven now.

Speaker 5 (21:51):
And the team was that for with PITZI wait to
say that again his So what team was that for
FITSI the Rams.

Speaker 3 (22:01):
Nine years ago?

Speaker 5 (22:03):
Well maybe it was no No, no forty one touchdowns
with the Rams.

Speaker 3 (22:07):
Sure, I know, but that's that's once in nine years.

Speaker 2 (22:09):
Like his his I checked DraftKings and his futures, Like
his over under on touchdowns is twenty four and a
half for this season, you know, and like the yardage
total is higher. I think he's at like forty one
hundred yards and something like. That's encouraging to see. But
look at it this way. Debro from the time DeVante

(22:30):
Adams joined the Jets in Week seven last year. Through
the end of the regular season, like Aaron Rodgers, played
reasonably well. He was the QB fifteen for Fantasy over
that stretch with DeVante, and he produced at about a
thirty nine hundred yard twenty nine touchdown pace. And over
that period, Devanta Adams was wide receiver nine and a

(22:51):
half point PPR Fantasy points per game, and Garret Wilson
was wide receiver twenty seven. And it's not like any
other Jets pass catcher was doing much. So it's really
hard to get like high level production from two receivers
in one passing attack unless the quarterbacks just putting up
insane numbers. And hey man, like I don't do rankings
based solely on how the projections work out, like I

(23:12):
do want to capture contingent upside. What if Puka missed
like four or five games, Like, if Puka misses any week,
I'm ranking Adams as a top five receiver that week, well,
unless he's up against you know, Patrick's or ten or
some other ace cover guy. But still I think we
at least have to tip our hats to the projections
and getting top ten fantasy seasons from two wideouts on

(23:34):
the same team as a pretty tough needle to thread.

Speaker 5 (23:38):
I don't disagree that it's a tough needle to thread,
but you did toss out Aaron Rodgers' stats towards the
end of the year. I'll give you some Matthew Stafford stats.
So he did fall off the last three regular seasons games,
so weeks fifteen through seventeen. Before that, so weeks eight
through fourteen with Puka Nakua and a washed version of
Cooper Cup, Matthew Stafford was averaging two hundred and seventy

(24:01):
three passing yards and two point three passing touchdowns per game.
He was on a full season pace, So this is
seven games, guys, it's almost a half a season. He
was on a full season pace for forty six hundred
passing touch of forty six hundred passing yards and thirty
nine passing touchdowns. So I think Stafford's still got a
lot more left in the tank. And I think the
Rams showed us in a small snippet of last year

(24:24):
with a an much improved wide receiver two in the
or should I say one wide receiver one B in
this passing attack Stafford's gonna have a huge resurgence this year.

Speaker 4 (24:36):
Where's Stafford ranked for you?

Speaker 5 (24:37):
D BRO QB thirteen, He's on the fringe of QB
one for me?

Speaker 4 (24:42):
Where's your ranks for you fits?

Speaker 2 (24:44):
Yeah, I've got him like in more mid range QB two,
Like I've kind of QB twenty right now. It's probably
too low. I got to move him up a little bit,
but he doesn't run.

Speaker 5 (24:56):
Also in that in that stretch he was the QB
eleven and fantasy points per game.

Speaker 1 (25:01):
Other names in this group, so again Adams is actually
at the bottom of this grouping wife there eighteen in ECR.
The other name's JSN, T Higgins, Tyree Kill, Mike Evans,
Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson.

Speaker 5 (25:14):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (25:15):
I mean, so these names are obviously on the older end,
like Tyrey Kill, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin is sneaky older
than you might realize. JSN obviously had a nice step
forward last year. He's got a new play caller now
in Seattle. But also, you know, no DK Metcalf around anymore.
Tyler Lockett, you know, T. Higgins sticks in Cincinnati. Garrett
Wilson gets reunited with his college quarterback and there is
nobody else to catch passes in that passing game. It's

(25:37):
kind of kind of an interesting group of names to
parse through, Deebra, how do you look at this grouping
of guys from twelve to eighteen?

Speaker 5 (25:44):
There are two guys that just stand out, like I
don't disagree. One, if Mike Evans can stay healthy and
he played a lot of games last year, showed no
fall off, Mike Evans is gonna be a value again
this year. But the two guys that I want to highlight,
especially in this tier is Jackson Smith and Jigmund Tyreek Hill. Like,
I will not be drafting Tyreek Hill as a top
fifteen wide receiver just I'm not doing it.

Speaker 3 (26:05):
Man.

Speaker 5 (26:05):
Whether you want to talk about the risk, you want
to talk about the age, you want to talk about
the falloff of last year with two way even back
in the lineup, Tyreek showed his age. He was the
wide receiver twenty four in weeks eight through sixteen with
Tua back and his per rout metrics all fell off
and stuff. So you can count me out on Tyreek
Hill this year. And Jackson Smith and Jigbub like I
loved him going into last year at this price point.

(26:27):
What the heck are we doing here? Guys? Like are
we serious with this? Like he was the wide receiver
seventeen in fantasy points per game last year? What improved
about his situation? Like Sam Donald versus Geno Smith? Give
me Gino every single time the offensive line we hope
is going to be better. If it's not Sam Donald, yikes,

(26:48):
If Sam Darnold's bad, then when we get Jalen Milroe,
they're not throwing the ball with him. They've already sent
and come out and say they're going to run more
this year. So JSN is a low a dot he is,
He's a low He's a short area guy. So, I
mean one hundred and thirty seven targets last year? Does
he get back to that this year? I just there's

(27:11):
no way that I can rank Jackson Smith in the
JIGBA this high man like look as I'm projecting. God
got him at wide receiver twenty. I look at him
as a mid to low range wide receiver two, and
I've got a lot of scary questions about him. If
he's not getting fueled by a ton of targets every
single week and if that offense goes more run heavy,
if Cooper Cup does show any sign of life and

(27:34):
he cuts into those underneath targets, if this offense is
just straight up bad man or they're just run heavy
like it all nothing points me to saying Jackson Smith
the jigbas should be one a wide receiver one in
rankings or two. Where's the ceiling? Like if you're ranking
him as a wide receiver twelve, I hope there's ceiling

(27:54):
for him to be a like a top five to
seven guy. And I just I don't see the outcome there.

Speaker 1 (28:00):
I'm curious what you think. I think Debra makes a
good point about the ceiling. I don't know that I
see a reasonable realistic outcome where he finishes his top
five receiver. Having said that, I do still think he's
going to get a ton of targets. I mean they
got rid of DK Metcalf, like maybe unless you think
Cooper Cup's turning back to the clock like I do
think Jasn is going to lead this team in targets,
like by a sizable amount.

Speaker 4 (28:21):
Is how I'm looking at this.

Speaker 1 (28:23):
And even with those targets not coming from Sam Donald,
I do think that means like close to one hundred catches.

Speaker 2 (28:29):
Yeah, I mean everyone was freaked out about Justin Jefferson
last year and how Sam Donald might pose a threat
to Jefferson's fantasy value, and that really was in the case.
I mean, Donald was okay, So I'm not really too
worried about that yet. I would prefer Gino Smith. But
and the other thing is just I don't know, deebro, Like,

(28:49):
I don't want to look at the full season with
JSN because of how well the back half of the
season went for him. Over the first eight weeks of
the season, I want to say, there was only one
game where JSN had more than sixty nine receiving yards.
But then from Week nine on he had a seven
game stretch, seven straight games with at least seventy four

(29:11):
receiving yards, topping out at like one hundred and eighty
in one of those games. Like, he was a different
guy over the second half of the season, high volume guy.
And he's totally poised to be a high volume guy again.
So yeah, Like, I don't think he belongs in that
upper tier, that second tier with like you know, Lad
and everyone who's above Lad.

Speaker 3 (29:31):
But I do think he belongs on the next tier.

Speaker 5 (29:34):
Do you think the passing rate goes down for Seattle
because that's the big worry for me, Like, I think
they are going to dial back the passing rate a
ton for a team that was seventh in passing attempts
last year? Do you think they sniff anywhere close to
that this year?

Speaker 2 (29:48):
FITZI yeah, I mean closer to the league average probably, So.

Speaker 5 (29:52):
If they dropped from seven to fifteenth, that's not going
to impact jsn.

Speaker 3 (29:55):
Oh, I mean marginally, Like no more than what.

Speaker 5 (30:00):
That leads me to, Like, he's not a wide receiver
one then for me, like with the with the massive
passing volume and over the stretch that you sided fits,
he was wide receiver eight, so like, okay, we're dinging
him a little bit at wide receiver twelve, but I
just don't think we're dinging him enough.

Speaker 2 (30:17):
Yeah, I mean, wide receiver twelve is where I have him,
and I do think, like you know, he's part of
a tier that stretches from like twelve to eighteen, so
you know, like I'm reluctant to categorize him as a
wide receiver one even though technically yes, I guess at
wide receiver twelve, I do have him there. So I'm
not like, I'm not totally I don't totally disagree with

(30:40):
what you said, Debro, but like I'm looking more at
the strong second half of the season he had as
like the harbinger of what's to come.

Speaker 5 (30:48):
I just look at it. It feels like a scenario.
We're buying a guy at probably close to, if not
his ceiling, like last year, if that was his ceiling,
with what way that I'm projecting this offense this year?
I think he takes a step back, But the question
is how much of a step back? And there's just
other guys like I would rather bet on, Like I'd
rather bet on Mike Evans continue to do Mike Evans things.

(31:12):
I'd rather bet on T Higgins in the passing right there,
I'd rather bet on Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, Davonte Smith
and still doing the things that they've done.

Speaker 1 (31:20):
So it's just I want to hit on Garrett Wilson
for a second. I feel like I'm going to be
getting a lot of him if he stays ranked tier.
I mean, he has never missed a game in his
three years in the NFL. He's only twenty four years old,
he's coming off of career highs and catches, yards and touchdowns.
You know, the lowest he's finished in his three years
outside of the middle year, which had just the worst

(31:41):
quarterback situation of all time, is wide receiver nineteen. That
feels like the floor he's now with his college quarterback again.
I really like Garret Wilson. I think he should be
closer to the top of this tier than the bottom.

Speaker 5 (31:52):
De Bro, I'm totally with you. Like he's wide receiver seventeen.
I've got him a smidge higher at wide receiver fourteen.
But dude, I just feel like this is justin fields
and DJ Moore all over again, and we were wrong then,
and I feel like people are gonna be wrong now.
Like I'm going to be drafting Garrett Wilson. I have
no problems with expecting and even if you want to

(32:13):
sit here and say, okay, fine, it's not justin fields
Tyro Taylor. Think he's good enough to support one wide
receiver and who else is catching passes for the Jets.

Speaker 1 (32:22):
Like, I would rather have him some of the guys
ahead of him. I would just rather draft Garrett Wilson
than Tyreek Hill. I'd rather draft than T Higgins. Honestly,
like Terry McLaurin, I just I'll draft him over JSN.

Speaker 4 (32:33):
I'll say it, yeah, if it's what you think about
Grett Wilson quickly before we move on.

Speaker 2 (32:37):
Yeah, I'm low man on the staff on Garrett Wilson,
and like I could make a case for moving him
up a little higher. So Justin Field's best season with
the Bears was twenty twenty three. He missed four games,
but Fields was on pace for about thirty four hundred
yards and twenty one touchdowns. DJ Moore was wide receiver
six overall and wide receiver ten in fantasy points per

(32:58):
game that season, So there's definitely only a case to
be made for Garrett Wilson being at the top of
that wide receiver two tier.

Speaker 1 (33:04):
Yeah, all right, let's go to the next group of
names here. This runs from wide receiver nineteen to twenty nine.
We're gonna kind of do larger groups as we get
further down, just to get through all the names, and
we don't have to hit on everybody, but just to
read through the names from wide receiver nineteen to twenty nine,
Rashi Rice, DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Junior, Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton,
Devonte Smith, DK Metcalf Xavier, were they Worthy, Jamison Williams,

(33:26):
Chris Godwin, and Chris alave Fits. I wanna, I'm curious
who stands out to you, but before I want to
just highlight the name that stands out to me, which
is Marvin Harrison Junior. This is somebody that we were
very high on last year, somebody who, despite the fact
that you know, everybody is viewing his season as this
major disappointment, was not bad for a rookie receiver. Almost

(33:47):
nine hundred yards, he had eight touchdowns. It was a
difficult situation in terms of the usage that Arizona was
putting him into and not giving him a lot of
easy targets and easy ways to get fantasy points. And
he didn't quite have that great connection with Kyler Murray.
But this is still a remarkably talented player that we
thought of as one of the best wide receiving prospects
to come into the NFL in a few years.

Speaker 4 (34:08):
Still only twenty two years old.

Speaker 1 (34:10):
I'm not saying he should be ranked higher right now,
but I think a year from now, there's a very
real chance he's a tier or two higher than he
is right now.

Speaker 3 (34:17):
Possibly, Yeah, I'm a little conflicted on him.

Speaker 2 (34:20):
Like I would be pretty surprised if he did not
outperform his rookie numbers on a per game basis.

Speaker 3 (34:28):
I expect that to happen.

Speaker 2 (34:29):
Like the target count in his rookie year wasn't what
we'd hoped for, and a lot of the targets were
of the deep variety. Like his average depth of target
was thirteen point four yards.

Speaker 3 (34:38):
That's like not ideal.

Speaker 2 (34:40):
Harrison isn't just like some vertical receiver, you know, he
should be an all over the field receiver like Jamar
Chase an average depth of target of eight point seven yards,
and he did catch deep balls, but he also caught
a little like little hitches, bubble screens, things designed to
get him the ball quickly, easy completions, and let him

(35:01):
make magic after the catch. And I want more of
that for Marvin Harrison. It does seem like I don't
know something about the Kyler Murray Marvin Harrison pairing just
worries me.

Speaker 3 (35:13):
A little bit.

Speaker 2 (35:14):
And you know, like I was on a guest on
a show the other week where one guy was worried
that it was because Kyler is trouble seeing over the
line of scrimmage, and maybe that's not ideal for Harrison.
You know, I'm not sure I totally buy that theory,
but like it's a plausible explanation. So yeah, I mean,
I do think Harrison's gonna have a better season, but like,

(35:36):
I don't know if this is going to be the
breakout we're really hoping for.

Speaker 1 (35:40):
One stat that Erickson likes to bring up a lot
is that the wide receiver one every year is always
the guy who led the league in red zone targets,
and Marvin Harrison Junior was that guy for the Cardinal
last year. Think it was red zone targets and not
end zone targets. I'm sorry if I'm mis quoting ericson
b which every one it was. Harrison was like by
far the number one guy for Arizona last year, you know,

(36:01):
ahead of like Trey mcbriden and anybody else in the team.

Speaker 4 (36:04):
They just weren't connecting on those targets.

Speaker 5 (36:06):
You know.

Speaker 1 (36:07):
Having said all that and kind of making the upside
case de bro at the same time.

Speaker 4 (36:11):
You know, we're we're hoping that.

Speaker 1 (36:14):
We're saying he's really talented, but the problem last year
was that, you know, the situation didn't work out because
of the play calling and play design and his usage
and also the quarterback. It's the same play caller and
the same quarterback this year, yep.

Speaker 5 (36:27):
And I'm Bluis cr on Marvin Irrison Junior. I've got
him out wide receiver twenty four right now.

Speaker 1 (36:31):
I just.

Speaker 5 (36:33):
To buy into Marvin Harrison Junior. I feel like I've
got a buy into Kyler Murray and I can't do that.
Man like he's played, he to be on it, like
on a per dropback basis. He's been god awful over
the last two years. If it wasn't for that contract,
you'd be hearing quarterback controversies in Arizona. And I just
I just can't man like, not only like we brought
up points about the offensive coordinator and the usage of

(36:56):
him last year. I brought this up previous shows, but
week one through nine, looking at a guy that ran
only less than thirty percent of his routes with horizontal
breaking routes. Almost fifty percent of them were vertical breaking routes.
Now weeks ten through eighteen, that flipped a little bit
forty one percent horizontal thirty eight percent vertical, So that
did change. But I worry that we see a revisiting

(37:18):
by Troupe petsing to last year's Oh, Marvin Harrison Junior
is our downfill guy, He's gonna be running clearouts because
the fact that it is is who the heck else
is going to be doing that on the Arizona depth chart.
They don't have that guy. So, like they had multiple
spots this offseason, like go add a field stretcher, add speed,
add somebody that can give you that verticality to this offense.

(37:39):
So you're not asking that out of Marvin Harrison Junior.
They didn't do that. So, like it's the assumption of
rational coaching. Can I tell you definitively that the OC
for Arizona is not going to do dumb stuff this
year and have Marvin Harrison Junior running clear outs and
it's Trey McBride again operating as the heavy underneath guy

(38:01):
for the Arizona Cardinals. No, can I tell you Kyler
Murray is gonna magically throw twenty five passing touchdowns this year?
Probably not. Can I tell you Kyler Murray is gonna
be a good quarterback this year on a per drop
back basis again, probably not. So It's just it comes
down to I'm probably gonna be close to ECR and
Marvin Harrison Junior. I'm not gonna bury him because the

(38:22):
people if I'm wrong, I want people to get exposure
to him in drafts, but I have a harder time
seeing the outcome of where he crushes his ADP. I
see more things pointing to Arizona doing dumb stuff and
Kyler playing bad for what will be a third year
in a row, and that'll lead me out on Marvin
Harrison Junior, Fitz.

Speaker 1 (38:42):
Who else stands out to you in this range of
players again, Rice, more Flowers, Sutton Smith, metcalf Asks Ever,
Harrison Worthy, William's Godwin Olive. I mean I feel like tomnta.
Smith is maybe a little under ranked. He'sa' Worthy is
maybe a little under ranked. Chris Elive if he is not,
you know, if he's healthy and on the field, I
think is definitely under ranked.

Speaker 4 (39:01):
Who stands out to you here?

Speaker 3 (39:02):
Rashi Rice?

Speaker 2 (39:04):
Like so many there are a lot of smart people
in the fantasy industry who are really high on Rashi Rice.
So it scares me a little bit to know where
I have him ranked. Like as a high end wide
receiver three. I mean, yeah, you were where do you
have in VICI? Because I think we might be handholding. No,
you're like you're fading him even more than I am.
I've got a mess, okay, because I have my wide
receiver thirty two. Yeah, I've got him at twenty eight

(39:27):
and even even Ericson. Ericson is high man at like
wide receiver twenty but I think that might still be
behind ECR or where's ECR on him?

Speaker 4 (39:36):
ECR is nineteen nineteen, Okay, so behind it?

Speaker 3 (39:39):
Yeah, I mean so yes.

Speaker 2 (39:40):
Rashi Rice was terrific in twenty twenty three when Patrick
Mahomes ed Rice and Travis Kelcey and pretty much no
one else to throw to, but it was sort of
gimmicky production. Rice had averaged up the target of four
point eight yards, and last year when he got off
to the fast start before the injury, like Xavier Worthy

(40:03):
was totally getting his sea legs in that offense, Like
he had not really made an impact other than that
opener where he just had the touchdowns, and like there's
no denying that Rashie Rice is really good at what
he does. But there is no denying the existence of
Xavier Worthy, who really came on down the stretch last
season and I think is a better conventional wide receiver,

(40:26):
a guy who can actually beat defenders with his route running. Plus,
they still have Hollywood Brown, who wasn't there when Rice
had the big year in twenty twenty three. They drafted
Jalen Royals, who a lot of people like Kelsey is
still there. And like, we should also probably consider the
possibility that even if ra Rice isn't facing a suspension

(40:48):
this year for that Dallas drag racing incident, is still
a little bit of a knucklehead. So yeah, I just
like I can't get on board with Rashi Rice as
like a late second round pick, like some of these
sharp people seem to believe.

Speaker 3 (41:02):
I just I don't get it.

Speaker 1 (41:05):
Steve bro I'm curious when you look at this Chiefs
team because you have Rice thirty two. As you say,
it looks like you're the one guy on the staff
who has Worthy even lower than Rice. And let me
know if these rankings aren't updated so it's been a
few days. You also have Travis Kelcey's tight end seven,
and yet you have Patrick Mahomes. You have them lower
than consensus, but you still have him as a top
twelve quarterback. So I'm wondering how the math adds up
that Mahomes is going to produce that much if you

(41:27):
don't have a single Chiefs receiver inside the top thirty,
and even their tight end is no longer a top
five tight end for you.

Speaker 5 (41:33):
It's wide receiver by committee. It comes down to they're
going to spread the ball around in some weeks, it
could be Hollywood Brown. Some weeks, it could be Rashi Rice.
Some weeks, it could be Exacer Worthy. Some weeks, it
could be Travis Kelcey. Some weeks it could be one
of the running backs catching passes out of the backfield.
I think Mahomes has shown that he can get there
as low en QB one. But my problem with this

(41:55):
passing offense, and there's a few passing offenses that we
could talk about, just that I don't really have a
ton of interest in this year because I feel like
it's gonna be an absolute dumpster fire mess to figure
out where the ball is going on a weekly basis.
You could talk about Buffalo, you could talk about Green Bay.
Kansas City is firmly in that and so Mahomes I
think can get there. But Rice. The big problem that

(42:17):
I have with him, dude, is there's one role. There's
one high volume role in this offense, and Rice played
it weeks one through three. He had an eight out
of four point eight twenty seven point six percent design
target rate. Exavier Worthy played this role in weeks thirteen
through sixty, and when FITZI talked about he came on,
he was playing the Rashi Rice role. His a DOT

(42:39):
was six point three, his design target rate was almost
twenty six percent. There's one role. Who gets the role?
I don't know. I have no clue. I don't even
know if both of those guys think maybe they share
it based off of matchups on a week to week basis.
So for me, it's like one of those where it's like,
I don't think these guys burn me based off of

(43:00):
how this offense operates this year. That's why it's like,
I can't definitively tell you when I've seen Rashi Rice
operate in that role, but also in the same exact
freaking season I've seen Exavier Worthy operate in that same role,
I cannot tell you definitively that. Okay, yeah, sure, Rice
comes back and he's gonna be that guy again. We've

(43:22):
seen Xavier Worthy do the same dang thing. Can you
can anybody definitively tell me without the like, outside of
just convicting their priors, that that will emphatically be Rashi Rice?
I don't think anybody can definitively say that, Deeverer.

Speaker 1 (43:37):
I know you want to talk why za Flowers? We
got to move on, so just keep it quick. But
do you think he's too high to lower? Just right
at wide receiver twenty two?

Speaker 5 (43:43):
I think people are drunk with ranking him where they're
ranking him. He hasn't produced as a wide receiver two
in any season so far. Wide receiver thirty two, Wide
receiver thirty one in fantasy points per game. We know
what this offense is going to look like for Baltimore
when they get in the red zone, it's gonna be
Lamar Legs, Dereck Henry running the ball in Mark Andrews
or hey, guess what, DeAndre Hopkins. So I don't see

(44:06):
the ceiling, whether it's passing volume or touchdowns for Zay
Flowers to all of a sudden in his third year
magically be a wide receiver two when he has never
done that in any point of his career at this point, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (44:19):
I kind of get that he had that stretch in
the middle of last season where he was really awesome,
but outside of that, it was I think underwhelming relative
to what his.

Speaker 5 (44:30):
Eight eight red zone targets all of last season. Does
anybody think that's going up? I don't know.

Speaker 1 (44:35):
I think it's still going to be a lot of
Derreck Henry and the tight ends when they're in close,
So it's going to need to come from the big place.

Speaker 4 (44:41):
All right.

Speaker 1 (44:42):
Welcome to this week's Chasing Challenges, brought to you by Microsoft.
Just like the athletes who push boundaries and redefine what's possible,
business decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities. Microsoft
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Players and teams are facing their own challenges. In this segment,
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(45:04):
what this means from a fantasy or betting standpoint, and
examine how we think they can overcome them. Whatever challenge
you're facing, Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to say
bring it on. This week, we're discussing the challenge faced
by Chris Alave as he enters a twenty twenty five
season marked by question marks surrounding both his health and
his quarterback situation. Alave has been a favorite early target
for fantasy managers in recent years as a polished, young

(45:26):
wide receiver product out of Ohio State. He topped one
thousand receiving yards in each of his first two seasons
in New Orleans, and many expected his touchdowns to jump
up in year three. Instead, last year was the toughest
of his career. Alave only played six full games after
suffering another concussion. Even when he played, Alave was out
produced by Rashid Shaheed, and now the Saints have one
of the potentially worst quarterback rooms in the NFL this season, Sorry, Debro.

(45:48):
Alave's first priority is getting past the concussions and hopefully
enjoying a fully healthy season. But even if he does,
he'll be catching passes from unknowns like Tyler Schuck, Spencer Rattler,
or even Jake Hayner. The talent is still there, may
not have the highest ceiling as a fantasy receiver, then
the injury history gives him a low floor too. He'll
look to overcome these challenges to bounce back for the
Saints and Fantasy Managers in twenty twenty five. That's it

(46:11):
for this week's Chasing Challenges. Remember Microsoft's AI solutions empower
you to take bold steps and make informed decisions, sparking
new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft
as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with confidence,
finding innovative solutions, and reaching new possibilities. Visit Microsoft dot
com Slash challengers to learn more. All right, guys, a

(46:32):
couple handful of names here in the early thirties Jalen Waddle,
Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Jerry Judy, Teteroa McMillan, and George
Pickens Debro. I know, well, actually I don't know if
you're going to gree with me on these two head
to head. I know you're gonna agree that the rookies
are both too low. I like Ted better than Travis
Hunter for this year. Part of that is just kind
of playing scared and like I need to see it
to believe it. With whatever the usage is going to

(46:52):
be in Jacksonville, and because of that reason, I'd rather
just take like the almost guaranteed if he's healthy, like
one hundred and twenty targets Ted's going to see looked
like an improved passing game at the second half last season.
So I do like both of these guys higher than
where they are in consensus, but I like Tet a
lot higher.

Speaker 5 (47:09):
I mean, I've got both of these guys. I've got
Tedro McMillan and Travis Hunter inside of my top twenty
four wide receivers for this year. I've got Tedro McMillan
at wide receiver twenty two. I've got Travis Hunter at
wide receiver twenty three. And I think you're looking at
a situation with Tedoro McMillan. Who else are we worried about?
Like I understand Adam Thlen was gobbling up targets last year.

(47:30):
If we're talking about where they're at in their respective careers,
do we really think that Adam Thielen I understand, like, okay,
fine thorn in the side, he's going to be the
number two in this passing attack, but still like where
he's at in his career, is he going to draw
targets over Tedro McMillan, who where he was drafted, the
talent upside and everything, I don't see it, man. And

(47:50):
the thing about Carolina that I'll point out real fast
is I also think when we saw the emergence of
Bryce Young, this team was thirteenth in neutral passing rate,
So there is stones throw away from being a top
twelve passing rate team. So we could also be underrating
the volume for Carolina this year from the passing department.
So that's why I've got tet where I've got like,

(48:12):
I'm going to bet on the talent, I'm going to
bet on underrated volume. And the same thing for Travis Hunter, man, Like,
I don't think you're Jacksonville and you make that type
of aggressive move up the board to go draft a
freaking corner. I think Travis Hunter is going to be
a full time wide receiver. I didn't think that going
into the draft, But considering the landing spot, considering the
aggressive move up, you don't make that move up and
give away that type of capital for a guy you

(48:34):
are going to play as a full time corner. They
could say whatever the heck they want to he is
going to be featured as a wide receiver. And if
it's only him and Brian Thomas Junior catching passes there
because Parker Washington, Diami Brown, Brenton Strange, none of these
guys are going to garner over a thirteen or fourteen
percent target share. It is not going to happen. So
you're looking at Travis Hunters probably walking into twenty two,

(48:57):
twenty three, twenty four to twenty five percent, Like yeah,
then that's going to put him somewhere around that top
twenty four range.

Speaker 1 (49:05):
It just feels fits like this, you're getting a discount
on tet because I don't see anyway, if he has
a healthy season, that he is going this low again
next year. Like I think this is the lowest he
will be for the next several years. He's just that
talented of a guy and again is going to get
all the targets he can handle in Carolina. It reminds
me of like a I don't think he's as good
a player as Milik Neighbors, but it reminds me a
lot of last year what I was saying about Neighbors,

(49:27):
as he's never going to go this low again. He's
going to get every target this year, and if he's healthy,
he's guaranteed to be a value at his current cost,
and again I don't think he's as good as neighbors.
But in a similar vein is how I'm looking at it,
and it looks like, based on your rankings, you agree
fits you do have Hunter below Tet like me, Is
that because of concerns about what the usage will be

(49:49):
or do you think like even if Hunter is getting
enough snaps to make us happy on the offensive side of.

Speaker 4 (49:55):
The ball, that you would still prefer Tet.

Speaker 2 (49:57):
I'm concerned Hunter says he wants to play defense, like
he you know, basically demanded that beforehand. He said he's
going to play some defense, or like he wouldn't want
to go to whichever team drafted him and wasn't going
to give him defensive snaps because of that. I do
not think he sees like an eighty percent snapchair offensively,
and like the top receivers are all around like a

(50:17):
ninety three percent snapchair, guys like jamar Cha is Ceedee
Lamb or whatever. If you're not seeing that, I mean,
it just chips away your possible production at the margins.
So no, like I can't I can't get Hunter inside
the top twenty or twenty five.

Speaker 1 (50:33):
I feel like Ted is easily my favorite name in
this group, and even I like him ahead of names
in a lot of the names in the tier ahead
of him. Is there anybody else in this group worth highlighting?
Fits you know, Jalen Wattle, Jordan Adison, Jerry Judy, George Pickens.

Speaker 2 (50:45):
Wattle, Let's talk about Waddle Like ECR is wide receiver thirty,
debro Erickson and I are all above consensus on him,
and I'm actually the lowest at wide receiver twenty seven.

Speaker 3 (50:55):
I'm a little I'm a little mad at diver.

Speaker 5 (50:58):
We're like right next to each other.

Speaker 2 (50:59):
Yeah, yeah, And I mean, like, here's a guy who
was a top ten draft pick who began his NFL
career with three straight thousand yard seasons and has a
plausible reason for the drop off last year, missed a
couple of games, Tua missed a couple of few games,
and like, the Miami offense was just dead in the
water without Tua, and I like, Wattles averaged nine point

(51:22):
three yards per target over his NFL career spanning four seasons,
Like that is an incredibly good number.

Speaker 3 (51:28):
This guy's a really good player, and he's ranked too
low an ECR.

Speaker 1 (51:33):
His target share has gone down every season, or his
total number of targets has gone down every season of
his career. He only has one year over one thousand
and fifteen yards, doesn't have a double day touchdown season.

Speaker 4 (51:44):
I like Wattle too.

Speaker 1 (51:45):
I'm just kind of stating the case of why maybe
he's ranked a little bit lower than we think he
should be. I mean, obviously last year was the worst
of his career, but as Fitz points out, de bro
accentuating circumstances there in terms of the injuries.

Speaker 5 (51:56):
Yeah. And the other part about this is if people
are doing early drafts and whether that's Best Ball or
early redrafts, I want people to get exposure to Wattle too,
because the other part about it is if you're getting
you're doing drafts right now, depending on whatever format you're in.
I want to be above consensus because I still think
that there's a possibility Tyreek Hill is gone. So I

(52:18):
want people to get exposure to Jail and Waddle because
if Tyreek Hill is out here, man Waddle is going
to go screaming up the ranks like he would be
a top twenty, like he would be somewhere around where
Tyreek Hill is currently ranked. So if people are using
our ranks right now in the early part of you know,
we're saying the summer, then I want people to get
exposure to Jail and Wattle as well.

Speaker 1 (52:38):
Next group of names here from wide receiver thirty six
to wide receiver forty four. Calvin Ridley, Roma Duneesa Khalil Shakir,
Brandon Ayuk, Juwan Jennings, Deebo, Samuel Jacobe Meyers, Jaden Reid,
and Stefan Diggs fits who stands out to you here?

Speaker 2 (52:52):
I want to call out Deebro for hating on Jayden Reid.
Like Deebro'spaently, I don't hate him at Lafloor hates him no, well,
like he he kind of forgot about Jayan Reid down
the stretch last season. But I will point out that
in the first twenty six regular season games of his
career that he played with Jordan Love, Jayden Reid scored
seventeen touchdowns. Like that that's a full season pace of

(53:15):
eleven touchdowns and that was a season and a half
so and like it should be noted that includes three
touchdown runs.

Speaker 3 (53:22):
But that's part of the appeal with Reid.

Speaker 2 (53:23):
I just think, you know, like he's not an anchor
player for your team, but as a third or fourth
wide receiver, I think he could do worse.

Speaker 5 (53:34):
My question about it is, when would you ever feel
comfortable about playing Jayden Reid in your lineup? Fitsie and
my other point.

Speaker 3 (53:41):
For the first season and a half of his career,
that entire story.

Speaker 5 (53:45):
When he was scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip and
we knew that it was going to come crashing down.
I mean, we all talk about regression here. Jadane Reid
in twenty twenty three was the wide receiver forty three
and expected fantasy points per game, like, playing way above
his usage in ceiling with touchdowns doing all of that.
The other part about Jayen Reid that I I have
big time worries about, dude, is you are we are

(54:07):
we definit are we all like one that Savion Williams
is not going to threaten his role in that offense
as the dary Bel debo and do it maybe better
than Jayane Reid ever did.

Speaker 3 (54:17):
That's true. He could be the new jet sweep guy
for the Packers.

Speaker 5 (54:20):
He could Jayden Reid, he could take his role from him.
And that's why, like I'm not ruling that out, man,
Like third round Capital looking at the player, Savion Williams
is basically Jane Reid. Upgrade is he not?

Speaker 3 (54:33):
I know about upgrade? Man, Like Savi has trouble after.

Speaker 5 (54:36):
He's bigger, he can do more in the run game,
and he's just as physical. I don't see how he's not.

Speaker 2 (54:42):
He's not a route runner. He doesn't catch the ball
well like he's gonna he's gonna launch red.

Speaker 3 (54:46):
Yeah, I don't know about that, dude.

Speaker 5 (54:49):
A lot of scheme touches, bro Like, we talk about it,
like a lot of the Jayan Reid uses is he
can't beat man coverage. It's it's a lot of funky usage. Man,
he had a really good run out, but I think
the runout is gone, dude, Like, so I yeah, I can't. Yeah,
I'm out on Jane Reid definitively.

Speaker 1 (55:08):
Who do you guys think finishes higher between the first
two names in this group, Calvin Ridley and Rome With
Dunes that I think it's an interesting conversation, guy. I
think with Dunes that you can easily paint the picture
for having a higher ceiling. A prospect we really liked
last year. He's now in year two, we think the
offense is just gonna be a lot better for everybody
in general. But there are a lot of mouths to
fill there, especially coming out of the draft. Calvin Ridley

(55:29):
has never in a healthy season finished that. He's wide
receiver thirty six right now in rankings. He's never been
outside the top. I think it's twenty seven in a
fully healthy season. He is the clear cut number one
target in this offense. He's now playing with the number
one overall pick. You're mileage may vary on you know
where cam Ward, you know how he holds up to
previous number one overall picks, But it's still the quarterback
that went first in the draft, and he's gonna be

(55:50):
the number one guy, and he's ranked as literally the
last wide receiver three you can get.

Speaker 4 (55:54):
That feels too low.

Speaker 1 (55:56):
I feel confident that a healthy Calvin Ridley is going
to return value, but the ceiling is higher for Odonsay.
So fits, who do you like better between the two Ridley?

Speaker 2 (56:04):
I think I'm above consensus on Ridley. I've got him
wide receiver thirty two, and I'm right in line with Odoonsay.

Speaker 3 (56:10):
I've got him at ECR wide receiver thirty seven.

Speaker 2 (56:13):
Yeah, I mean, like, I think cam Warden's gonna be
really good for Ridley because cam Warden is an aggressive
downfield thrower.

Speaker 5 (56:20):
Debra, I, this isn't even close. Like I and I
made a face when you said that, I think Rome
has the higher ceiling. I don't think Rome has the
higher ceiling at all.

Speaker 1 (56:30):
You don't think if he puts it together in year
two and is the prospect we thought he was last year.

Speaker 5 (56:34):
Okay, Now, dude, hold on, hold up, Let's let's back
this up. Let's back this this Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams
hype train, back up for a second. Here have we
seen Caleb Williams in the NFL to this point support
even one one high end fantasy producer, much less multiple
unless you think Roalm of Doonsay is going to be

(56:55):
the clear wide receiver one of this offense. And I
don't know how we make that case, but unless we
think that, like, okay, then Caleb Williams is gonna have
to support two weapons maybe three. I can't say that
at all, like with any stretch of confidence that Caleb
Williams has shown anything in his NFL career to prove
that he could support one high end weapon, much less two.

(57:18):
So for me, no, the ceiling is way lower for
roal Ma Doonsay. Like Calvin Ridley. Yes, I agree with
Fitzie like I've got him a wide receiver thirty one
in my rankings right now. Calvin Ridley's gonna have a
better year just simply based off if he's not catching
freaking passes for Will Levis and Mason Rudolph Dude like easily.
He was the wide receiver twenty eight and expected fantasy

(57:39):
points per game wide receiver thirty six and fantasy points
per game last year with dreadful quarterback play. It's gonna
do nothing but get better, and there's nobody else for
Tennessee to catch passes. I think the floor and the
ceiling for Calvin Ridley are immensely higher for roal Ma Doonsay.
I think people are getting way lost in the sauce
of hype on Caleb Williams when we haven't seen anything

(58:01):
close to substance saying that he could back up any
of that hype at all.

Speaker 1 (58:05):
I mean, I mean, we haven't seen it, but we've
only seen one year in a pretty terrible situation with
a coaching staff that wasn't even helping him watch film,
was doing absolutely nothing to make him better. A terrible
offensive line like if you think, if you think Ben
jon I'm not saying you, but I'm saying if one
thinks that Ben Johnson is like this, you know God's
gift to play calling, and is this going to be

(58:26):
this great head coach that everybody thought he was for
the last few years as a candidate, and he now
gets a guy who is really talented in Caleb Williams,
and just we didn't see it put together in year one.

Speaker 4 (58:36):
Like, I am not at all writing him off.

Speaker 1 (58:37):
I think it's fair to say, like maybe people are
getting a little over their skis with it, and that's reasonable.
And I actually agree that Calvin Ridle should be ranked
higher than Duneese because I'm much more confident in him
returning value than Odoonsay is. But I think if both
Ridley and a Dunees they hit their best case scenario
this year, I do think A Dunsa's is higher.

Speaker 5 (58:55):
I think Ridley's higher, man, I think you're just looking
at like target floor, target share. The fact that he's
the number one maybe not the number three dude. Roma Dunes.
I mean we can make cases of Okay, he's the
number two option, would it surprise anybody if he's the
number four option in that passing attack? Well?

Speaker 1 (59:14):
No, And that's why the floor I think is lower
than Redley. But I'm saying ceiling like it because again,
like this was a prospect that was like a very
clean coming in.

Speaker 5 (59:22):
I mean that also back to Caleb Williams. Dude, like
he was legendarily bad as a rookie. Like it's like,
let's not like Vince words here. He was bottom five,
bottom ten and every single efficiency accuracy metric you can
find out there. So even expecting a big step forward
in his second year, we're hoping he's league average. Anything

(59:44):
above that is just wish casting because I mean, we
could talk about the situation for days. Caleb compounded all
of those problems and made them exponentially worse.

Speaker 4 (59:57):
I think that's right.

Speaker 1 (59:58):
I'm just not I'm in no way shape or I
writing him off after one bad year in a terrible
situation fits.

Speaker 4 (01:00:03):
What do you think about this situation?

Speaker 2 (01:00:04):
Yeah, I'm a little more willing to give him am
all again, granted, like I'm not presuming your two success
for him but like the offensive line has been dramatically upgraded.
Ben Johnson is a much better play caller than Shane
waldern so like I'm trying to be optimistic, but I
like I agree, though I have concerns about Romo Doonzay's

(01:00:26):
target outlook with this team, Like what if Luther Burden
is the new Amen Ros Saint Brown for Ben Johnson?

Speaker 5 (01:00:32):
What if Colston Lovelan's the number two in the in
the passing attack? What if DJ Moore just runs away
is the clear number one and everybody else just is
picking scraps.

Speaker 4 (01:00:40):
Well and again not to believe with the point.

Speaker 1 (01:00:42):
These are all reasons why I think the floor I
totally agree with you is lower in a duneesay, and
why I think it's fair to rank him where he is.
I'm just saying the upside scenario I think is higher
than you're saying. But we don't need to keep, you know,
blavoring that point. The last group of names here, Ricky Piersall,
Josh Downs, Cooper Cup, Michael Pittman, Junior, Darnel Mooney and
Christian Kirk, I want to ask, like with Pearsal and

(01:01:03):
we didn't really talk about Brandon, I, Yuka, Juan Jennings
kind of in the last year. But these three forty
nine ers receivers are ranked thirty nine, forty and now
Pearsal at forty five. Is this going to be kind
of a tricky situation to decide who's the right guy
at target or fits? Is it easy for you to
say which of those three at cost you're most interested
in going after?

Speaker 2 (01:01:20):
It's funny Peersal is the lowest by ECR and Debro
and I both have him as our highest ranked forty
nine er. Deebro's super high on him. Debro, it's got
him as like a mid range wide receiver.

Speaker 5 (01:01:32):
Three.

Speaker 3 (01:01:32):
I've got him as a high wide receiver. Four.

Speaker 2 (01:01:37):
In fact, thank you Worm for reminding me too for
bringing up the forty nine ers receivers. And I do
have to give Debro little grief. Like Debro, the way
you have these forty nine ER receiver ranked receivers ranked,
it's like you've you've got some sort of what was
the HBO show The Leftovers where they have the rapture
type event where all of a sudden, five percent of

(01:01:58):
the Earth's population disappears. It looks like you're ranking the
forty nine ers receivers as if George Kittle and Christian
McCaffrey have disappeared off the face of the earth and
are not going to catch any passes for the Niners
this year.

Speaker 5 (01:02:10):
I mean, I've got Pearsall is wide receiver twenty eight,
I've got Jennings as thirty six, and Brandon Ayuk is
forty one. I don't think I'm there with that, Like
that's not I'm not stepping forward and saying all three
of these guys our top twenties.

Speaker 2 (01:02:24):
I do think like, unless McCaffrey and or Kittle miss
significant time, like one of these three guys is going
to be.

Speaker 3 (01:02:32):
A colossal disappointment, And I agree with that. I tend
to think it's gonna be Ayuk.

Speaker 2 (01:02:37):
Like he's he's got a major injury to come back
from and like he had the one great season where
everyone fell in love with them, Like I think he's
a good player, but also like he was just way
over his skis with efficiency, like his yards per route
run and yards per target metric were like unsustainably good
during that thirteen hundred yard season.

Speaker 5 (01:02:58):
So I don't disagree with you. I've got him as
my lowest forty nine ers wide receiver at wide receiver
forty one. Man, I think this is going to be
Ricky Pearsall show. I've got him ranked the highest out
of those guys. I mean, Brandon Ayut coming off with
the devastating injury, when does he ramp up? What does
that look like? What is his effectiveness? And then while
Juwan Jennings was really good last year, we're also talking

(01:03:21):
about a wide receiver that's been buried on the depth chart.
He's entering his age twenty seven season. So it's like,
I'm not discounting like what he showed last year. Obviously
that is what, you know, what's putting him ranked where
I have him ranked. But also, dude, can we not
talk about like Ricky Pearsall got an audition as the
leader of this passing attack last year to end the season,

(01:03:44):
and he flourished. He killed like in the final I
mean he crushed it, dude. In the final two games
of the season, he was wide receiver seven, wide receiver fourteen.
He saw almost a twenty two percent target chair, he
had over a thirty percent first read cheer. He was
producing two point eight four yards per route run. He's

(01:04:06):
a former first round pick who had his rookie season derailed,
derailed by off field stuff and injuries and stuff. So like, yes,
I want to be above consensus and over the moon
on a former first round pick that showed at the
tail end of last year. When San Francisco said, we're
gonna give you an audition as the number one guy,

(01:04:26):
can you be that guy? And he answered the bell,
I know.

Speaker 2 (01:04:29):
We're gonna get We're gonna get crushed for like overdoing
it on a small sample size, but like that, I
don't care.

Speaker 3 (01:04:35):
It was a very convincing two games.

Speaker 5 (01:04:37):
It's a small sample size until it's not a small
sample size. I would rather be ahead of the curve
on a player and be aggressive on a player. And
people are like when we turn over the cards for
the twenty twenty five season, all of us saying why
did we rank Ricky Piersol. He's a former first round player.
The team made moves in the offseason to say we

(01:04:58):
believe in this guy, gave him an audition. I would
rather be above consensus on a player like that than
be left holding water saying, oh man, but I mean
I was in a Juwan Jennings. I mean, come on, like,
that's not the way that I want to play this.

Speaker 1 (01:05:14):
Any other names quickly before you get out of here
that stand out in this group being Josh Downs, Cooper Cup,
Michael Pittman, Junior Darnal Mooney, Christian Kirk.

Speaker 4 (01:05:20):
That runs out the top fifty, either of you.

Speaker 5 (01:05:23):
Christian Kirk, he's going too low. I think it's the
injury discount. But when we saw him healthy last year,
and I know it's been varying degrees of health over
the last few years, he was still crushing in an
efficiency metrics, and I feel like with the supporting cast
it's around CJ. Stroud this year, I think he's going
to have a bounce back. And we were all, I

(01:05:45):
emphatically remember this, boys, we were all talking about last year,
which Texans wide receiver do we want to draft this year?
And now we get to play the same game, except
the Texans are coming off a down year with CJ.
Stroud and the only wide receiver in Houston that you're
having to pay up for is Nico Collins. Yeah, count

(01:06:07):
me in massively on Christian Kirk and a player that's
not even on this list, Jayden Higgins. Both of those
guys that want to be at or above consensus on
this year because we're not having to pay for it.

Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
Any final thoughts fits, I'm definitely not paying for Christian Kirk.
I totally disagree. I've got him at wide receiver sixty
dee ro. I just like it's too it's too messy
with like Higgins.

Speaker 3 (01:06:27):
Noel and Kirk.

Speaker 5 (01:06:29):
And I know you link CJ. Stroud's gonna have a
bounce back season.

Speaker 2 (01:06:32):
Well I do, but that offensive line is still trash.
I do worry about his time to throw, like that's
gonna be an issue. And the Houston defense is really good,
so it's not like they're going to have to play
shootouts every week. I just like it's a we know
Nico is going to get his in that target picture.
I just don't know what, like how the leftovers are

(01:06:53):
going to be sorted out from among the Iowa State
rookies and Christian Kirk and then just like I don't
have any major beef with where Downs is going, but
like it is Jamison Crowder syndrome. Everyone likes the small
slot receiver archetype and like I tend to think those
guys are overvalued and I just don't know, Like I

(01:07:14):
worry that Tyler Warren is going to usurp a lot
of what Josh Downs does with the short area targets.

Speaker 5 (01:07:21):
I'm pretty much with CONSENSUSM with you here, Fitsy like
I've got Downs at wide receiver forty nine and Pittman
and water receever fifty. I just again going back to
pieces and parts of offenses that we want to buy
into offensive ecosystems. Do the Colts feel like that type
of team?

Speaker 3 (01:07:39):
No, not for me, and down Downs is good at
what he does, but it's a low ceiling.

Speaker 5 (01:07:45):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:07:46):
I will go ahead and wrap up there.

Speaker 1 (01:07:47):
We went a little long, but obviously we're hitting on
a ton of names today, so I hope everybody enjoyed that.
For Debro and Fits, I'm Ryan Warming. Thanks everybody for
tuning in and we'll see again next time. Thanks for
listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at Fantasypros
dot com, slash review or on Spotify, Follow us on x,

(01:08:11):
Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com.

Speaker 4 (01:08:16):
Slash fantasy pros

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FantasyPros - Top 50 Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers (Ep. 1576)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}FantasyPros - Top 50 Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers (Ep. 1576)