June 17, 2025 • 31 mins
The NBA Finals have reached a boiling point, with the Oklahoma City Thunder up 3-2. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are on the precipice of cashing their OKC-in-six series bet from last episode.
The series moves back to Indiana for Game 6 on Thursday night, following a big Thunder win on Sunday. Back with us to discuss all things betting in this series and beyond, the host of Action’s NBA betting podcast BUCKETS, the effervescent Matt Moore. We also get some talk about Kevin Durant, future NBA free agents, and so much more. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the favorites of the podcast. We are part
of the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of
the Action Network. Today I am joined as always by
my co host, my companion, my padre, my BFF professional
better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I'm giving you a.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Very special, very exaggerated, very English hello.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Soymon, Hello Chad. Perfect day here in Burnley, lovely, lovely
sunny day here in the United Kingdom. It's beautiful.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Well listen, I know you've been in training trying to
throw down as many pints as you can getting ready.
You've been in England for less than twelve hours.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Are you drunk? Have you entered into any coal mines?
Have you joined?
Speaker 1 (01:00):
And peaky blinders? Are you carrying razor blades in your cap?
What's happening in Burnley right now?
Speaker 3 (01:09):
God bless my cousins. They bought me cors Light because
they said that they think I only could drink light beer.
So I had a cors Light and I've said a
couple in it. So other than that, that's as British
as I've gone so far. So early days, Chad News.
I landed this morning. I'm on two hours of sleep
and yeah, tonight I'm sure it's like six thirty here,
(01:30):
so I'm sure after this call I'm gonna have a
couple drinks and my cousins. I'm looking forward to it.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, what's gonna happen? Are you gonna go to a
public What happens in England?
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Yeah? Like literally, I mean that's why I love England.
I'm a block away, so walk down to the local pub,
have some fish and chips, have a couple of drinks
and watch some football matches. Will be a good night.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
I feel like you on two hours of sleep, flying
overnight is no different than me staying up to watch
the end of the NBA Finals, which is about two
and a half hours past my bedtime. Uh. We're going
to talk a little bit about that today with our
(02:11):
brilliant analyst host of the Buckets podcast, the man who
made us last week bet the Okac thunder in six
as well as the Pacers in seven. You know him
as the man who says the word subsequently subsequent.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
Mister Matt Moore, I did it again this week. I
did really again on a show and was just killing
myself for it. I'm like, what is wrong with me?
I'm gonna go to like a hypnotist therapist to get
me to say subsequent correctly.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
I don't even think they say it like that in England,
like it's not even a word.
Speaker 5 (02:51):
Nope, it's just me. It's just me. I'm the problem.
It's me.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
That's the problem for us. Matt Moore because after our
conversation last week, me and Simon both bet on the
Thunder to win in six and it's looking decent. I mean,
Tyrese Halliburton, we can talk a little bit about the game.
There's a lot to say, not just about the game,
but since the last time we spoke, there's a lot
(03:21):
of activity in a variety of markets for the NBA.
Whether it's what's going to happen with Kevin Durant, and
I think that has subsequent value in the betting markets
for where we think he might land. There are conversations
for top five markets for the NBA draft. Desmond Bane
was traded from Memphis to Orlando. That got it to
(03:44):
me kind of an outsized reaction from people, but also
having an impact on what people think now of the
Eastern Conference in the NBA. So there's a lot to
break down when it comes to NBA right now, We're
entering into that super dramatic high school drama off season
of the NBA, which I love. But right now, as
(04:04):
we talk about it, the Thunder of a three to
two lead shake Gilgess. Alexander is averaging about thirty three
a game. Jalen Williams had forty last night for the Thunder.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
They're up three to two.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Tyrese Halliburton has injured his calf. He played with a
tight calf. Here's what's interesting to me. I don't know
what's going to happen in the next two games, but
I do know that it seems very strange to me
how frequently frequently it takes Tyre's Halliburton to get into
(04:36):
the offensive flow in these big games. When he's great,
he's great, But why is it so hard for him
to find buckets in these big games? Too often it's
like the second quarter and you're seeing Tyres Haliburton hasn't
scored yet.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
Yeah, So I think there's a couple of things that happened,
depending on what the matchup is. You know, last night,
I think the injury really was pretty severe and it
was enough to really hamper him. Now he's going to
get so much treatment, Like the amount of treatment you
would not believe.
Speaker 5 (05:04):
I don't think people really understand.
Speaker 4 (05:05):
It's like, oh, he'll receive treatment, and they think it's like, oh,
he'll go in and they'll.
Speaker 5 (05:09):
Work on him.
Speaker 4 (05:09):
No, it's like they go to his house, they work
on him, he goes to sleep, they wake up, they
come to his house, they work on him.
Speaker 5 (05:14):
He goes to the arena, they work.
Speaker 4 (05:16):
It's constant over the next you know, seventy two hours
before they get to game six.
Speaker 5 (05:23):
So that was part of it.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
The other thing is that the Thunder have high pickup points,
so they're pressuring him up the court consistently, and they've
gotten to where there it's like, all right, we have
to pressure him all the way up the court. Then
there's the matter of the pick and roll coverage. Like, okay,
what's the easiest way to get Tyree's loose. Let's say
a screen for him and separate. Starting in game four,
the Thunder, we're like, fine, fine, we'll switch. They never
(05:46):
want to do that. They want to play drop because
it helps them protect the paint. They started switching and
like we called it on buckets pregame, which you can
catch every every pregame before the finals and have remaining
We have left at six point thirty eastern. We talked
about how, look, Tyree's unders are a great spot here
because they're gonna switch everything and Tyrese is not good
at challenging that, and that means the other thunder guys
don't have to help off, so his assist lanes are
(06:08):
not there. It's just one on one, go get a bucket,
and that's not Tyrese's game.
Speaker 5 (06:13):
He wants to shape it.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
He wants to force gravity and then separate things and
create open lanes for guys or work off ball, and
he's willing to defer if he feels like that's the
right play. Jokic had the same problem a couple of
years ago, and not a couple of years ago, like five,
six years ago, where I would actually like Joker and
I have like this ongoing tension because I'm always i
would ask him, I'm like, as the like, do you
(06:34):
feel like you're the best player on this team?
Speaker 5 (06:36):
And he'd always be like, no, not at all, and
I'm like, Choker, like come on.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
And Tyrese has the same thing where he just wants
to kind of be part of a team that makes
everybody better. He doesn't want to be the guy that
scores thirty five. He wants to win the game by
shaping it. But the thunder are saying, no, you're gonna
have to beat Chet Hunger in one on one and
get a bucket, and you're gonna have to do it
enough that we help off. And that lenge is what
really works against Tyrese, is what makes him disengage. And
(07:04):
they've beaten the Knicks, and they've beaten the Calves because Nemhard,
Nie Smith, Miles, Turner, Pascal have been able to attack
those matchups off ball with the space that's provided. Okay,
so he's a different beast and that's why I think
you're seeing some of this with Tyreee on top.
Speaker 5 (07:20):
Of the injury.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Simon, did you want to jump in because I have
another question.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
Yeah, I mean, I'm just like you know, I'm I've
loved this series. There's just so much that's going on
that's I mean, anyone that's just been knocking this series
just really has missed out on what is why we
love basketball. And to me, that Game four, that pivotal
moment of SGA and just okay, See's stepping up right
They're down ten points set into that fourth quarter, and
I don't know about you, but I thought this is
(07:46):
over right, Like this is they're down to a team
and you know the Pacers that can close these games out,
can they can they live up to the moment to
come back. And the fact that you know we've all
seen it. Sga at the end of that game, stepped up,
hits some shots, had his moment and now here we
are in the next game, right and you know Halliburton
goes down. He does not look like the same player.
(08:08):
We're all sitting here right that it's it's over for OKC.
I would love to know your view, Matt on this
opening number, because it opened six. Professionals came in obviously
quickly took that number. They've taken the five and a half.
I know some pros have taken the five, and now
you're seeing some four and a halfs. Is this because
of what you just talked about. Is Halliburton gonna be
game ready? Is that why this numbers moving or is
(08:30):
this just professionals taking a stand on a number where
you know this is a thunder team that struggles on
their road. Is that simply as simple as that so
this is.
Speaker 4 (08:39):
One of those, and we don't see this as often
in the NBA. Really takes until I think the finals
until we see this. From what I'm seeing, it very
much looks like groups are fighting over the number, and
we don't see that very often in NBA because there's
not enough interest or money on it, and then the
limits are lower. So this open, like you mentioned this
open six, it immediately pops down to five. There's some
four and a half showing, but now we're going back
(08:59):
up to five five and a half in the market
because now today we're seeing sharp action coming back in
on OKC. And whether that's Intel saying hey, Haliburton's probably
not gonna be ready, or the immediate move was just
based off of all right, look you pop this at six.
Indy's been competitive. OKC is oh and eight a t
or I'm sorry, now eight and one or one in
(09:20):
eight on the road ats in the playoffs. This is
enough to get me to go ahead and take Indy
as a reaction here with this price point. Now we're
seeing some of this coming back on OKA. See all
the trends are going to suggest, okay, see is the
spot here? It does look like Okac's gotten to be themselves.
Speaker 5 (09:37):
They look.
Speaker 4 (09:37):
Game five was the first game in this series where
I was like, oh, there's the thunder, Like I haven't
seen them since the Wolve series. And if that, I'm
resistant to these momentum shifts because if you'd ask me,
and if you told me, like, hey, they're gonna they're
gonna split in in OKAC one and two, I've been like, oh,
Indie wins three, OKAC wins four, OKAC wins five, Indie
(09:58):
wins six, Like that's a game script. The trends on
the spot with Tyre's Haliburton and probably suggests that OKAC
is better than what that that suggestion would lead you towards.
The number has been really interesting though, where this is
I mean this is also fighting over literally two possessions
here right Like this is right on the verge. If
it gets to four, that's like where the margin inside
(10:18):
of like five seconds, the team will let it go
like all right, we can't get this, we can't. We're
not gonna be able to close this gap. But at six,
now that's a different kind of margin here. So you're
fighting over these very very careful price points I think here,
and you're seeing a little bit more sharp action fighting
over this number than we've seen in most of the
other finals.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
I think, are we getting a clue from this number
in the movement how much Tyrese Haliburton is worth to
the point spread?
Speaker 4 (10:46):
Probably not, because it's like he's gonna play, like Rick
Carlisle said, He's going to play. And the question is,
now we're in this spot of trying to put a
number on an ephemeral thing because we always talk about
like he's ninety percent eight, like there's no way to
quantify that. You can't quantify the human body. So it's is,
if Tyrese is fifty or forty percent, this number has
(11:07):
to move two and a half three. If this is
Tyrese is seventy eighty percent, you're talking about a half point,
maybe a point.
Speaker 5 (11:14):
And I think that there's.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
Probably some of the buyback today based off of Look,
if Tyrese isn't one hundred percent, how are they going
to win this game? Like that's got to be some
of this conversation is just how are they going to
win this game if Tyrese is literally a decoy in
the corner. Now, the funny part is a really good
reaction would be it's Indiana, do not bring your logic
in here, because they have defied that consistently all playoffs.
(11:36):
But that's more of a gut feeling than a quantitative
edge perspective. So I think some of this is probably
reflective of the idea of Okase he's got momentum, the
trend support Game six road Favorites trying to close out
the series. Oka see is better based off of the
power rating. Still, they've re established control of the series,
and Tyrese Haliburton is not going to be one hundred
percent no matter what whatever he was before, because nobody's
(11:58):
one hundred percent right now. He was not now he's
seventy whatever. Wherever you land on, that has to I
think impact your cap on this. That's why it's gonna
be tough for pacers backers.
Speaker 5 (12:07):
I think in the spot.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
What's what's a little bit deceiving is Matt Maybe while
I'm asking this question, you can look up what was
the number in Game four in Indy Thunder were down
ten Shae hits, then they're down I think five, or
(12:29):
they're down four Shaye hits the three pointer, they're down
one oh three, one oh two. I think then he
hits that two pointer in the corner when he bumps
Nie Smith off. Now they're up one. From that point on,
the Pacers only score one more point. I think the
(12:50):
game closes seven. What was the spread in that game?
Game game four closed minus six ended at seven, And
thank you Matt Mitchell for throwing that in there. So
the Thunder ended up covering that game. What a deceptive
cover and what a bad be it. I think that's
(13:10):
what you're talking about when you're saying, look at this
number at the end, the number might be bigger than
the game appears.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
The fears and it took. It took off ball fouls too.
That was the killer, right.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
It was like they kept picking up off ball fouls
to get one and the ball, and that to me
is like absolutely crazy. Like Mitchell has commented here that
they covered for a total of six point seven seconds. Now,
I was on Thunder to cover in that game and
that was one of the all time like thank you
Jesus moments in that game. But yeah, like, Okaysee's ability
(13:42):
to win by their what is their overall margin on
the road has been extremely difficult throughout the playoffs. We
saw this not just the nugget series. We saw this
in Memphis, they go down thirty, they have to storm back,
but they don't cover. We see this in Minnesota, they
don't cover. They've consistently struggled to cover on the road.
Speaker 5 (14:01):
Here.
Speaker 4 (14:02):
The problem, I think is also a series flow, though.
If the Thunder are up in that fourth quarter and
Indy gets that sense of we can't do it, like
we're out, we've run out of gas and we're done.
There's a lot of spots where I've seen teams in
that kind of situation facing elimination down in the fourth
quarter and like you just don't and the other team, meanwhile,
is like, just keep punching, just keep punching them.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
We can finish this, we can win the title.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
That momentum shift, Like that's the highest point of adversity,
is you are down in the fourth quarter facing elimination
after playing for six months of basketball, you've gotten all
the way here. That's a really tough spot. And so
I think that both those things are true. Like it
doesn't feel like to me this is a I thought.
I thought Game five was a good Pacers cover Thunder
(14:50):
win spot, and the Thunder got over the line because
they were all the forced turnovers for the first time,
which is out of context for the series.
Speaker 5 (14:56):
This one does not feel like that. This one does not.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
I feel like, if you're look, if you like, you
need to be on money line. If they're going to
be within range of this game, they're going to have
the extra edge.
Speaker 5 (15:05):
We can do this. We're right there. We can win
this game.
Speaker 4 (15:08):
Thunder winning close to me, is the least likely of
the outcomes.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
I was in the sportsbook for that game, that game four,
just being on the professionals we bet on the NBA.
I love talking about it because the NBA Finals, the
books get so sharp. I remember at some point they
were down, like you said, they were down one or
two points, and SGA gets them back into the game
that he basically gets them up by one, and my
buddy turning to me, he said, they're going to somehow
(15:32):
cover this game. And while only hitting or two May
threes at the time, and then afink he hit one more,
so they're up to three mad threes. He's like, this
is why I love betting, though, because every sucker in
this room is on the Pacers because everyone knows that
stat that OKAC has not covered on the road and
he's like, I know this is going to land on
seven and sure enough, you know the exact what was
it at one eleven and one oh four? Yeah? I
(15:52):
turned to him, I was like, I love this is
why I love betting so much, because it's like you
knew any better knew that was coming, right though. Stupid
free throws, the Pacers missing free throws. So my view
of this, Matt is like you're saying that back and
forth on this number right now is the professionals are
fighting because the books are getting so sharp, right, I
mean last game, what did they what was the cover
(16:13):
that was nine and a half? I think the final
point was eleven? Right, was a one oh nine? Right?
So like the books, even with you know, Halliburna being injured,
it's still right there. Like the books are so sharp
right now. So anyone listening to this just be careful,
like you're betting into a right now, a market that
is at the highest level. Like the books just seem
(16:34):
like they're captinets so well. So I like what I'm
viewing here with Matt Moore talking about I like the
adjusted line, right, is this not a nice spot to take?
OKAC minus twelve and a half, a little Brandon Anderson
or take the Pacers money line, right. I love that
type of scenario here. Or do you think this is
gonna be a closer game and I'm giving a credit format.
Speaker 5 (16:50):
I don't mind this as an alt spot.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
The trick is though, one of the things that because
like I started Live Bett and thunder Alts last night
first quarter because I was like, man, pacers are dead here,
They're just looking like they're out of it.
Speaker 5 (17:02):
Okaysey's got this. If okase wins.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
At home, their average margin and victory in the playoffs
is twenty six points. This is good value here with
this kind of number. Indiana's got a rare ability to
just never get kicked off the ladder, like Okay Tyre's
Halliburton's hurt, Pascal si Okam seeing three defenders, Miles Turner
(17:24):
can't do anything.
Speaker 5 (17:25):
Here comes TJ.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
McConnell, gonna make things happen. Here's Ben dig Mathern hitting
big shots to keep them within range. And Okasey's half
court This is the big thing. If you really want
to know the reason, it's that Okasey's half court offense
never gears up, their defense gears up their half court
offense stays at the same.
Speaker 5 (17:46):
Level or lower. That's all they really do.
Speaker 4 (17:49):
They never hit this this gear where you're like, man,
what an incredible offensive performance. They got an amazing game
from Jadub, they got a good game from Shay. They
generate a lot of free throws for Shay, But like,
this wasn't a they're absolutely killing them because they don't
really have that gear offensively.
Speaker 5 (18:05):
It's all in the defensive end.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
It's why I like thunder Team total over and didn't
want Pacers anything.
Speaker 5 (18:11):
On their team total or the combined over.
Speaker 4 (18:13):
I only wanted Thunder Team total because I was like,
they're gonna go over this number because of the speed
of the game. But their offense never really gears up.
It just you hit a couple of more threes or not.
They're not gonna have this dominant performance where they blow
you out because they shot forty eight percent from three.
Speaker 5 (18:29):
That's not gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
If they're gonna blow you out, it's because you score
eighty and that's hard to do against an Indiana team
that's whose offensive floor is so high.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
When you look at this thunder team, I was watching
this game last night and everyone talks about dynasty. They
threw up that graphic about the Blazers and this is
the second youngest team since the Blazers.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
That has a chance to win a title.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
And Shay is twenty six and Jalen Williams is twenty three.
And obviously Shay's going to get a bag. He's going
to get seventy million a year, and Jalen Williams when
he's eligible, is going to get at whatever max deal
he's eligible for. You're gonna have a construct similar to
what the Celtics have right where you're paying north of
probably could be by then four hundred million dollars to
(19:13):
Shay Gilgis Alexander and to Jalen Williams. It's hard to
maintain a dynasty when you're spending that much money on
two players handicapped. For me, what this team looks like
over the next two to three years, who are the
pieces they can keep, Who are the players that are
gonna have to go somewhere else to get a bag
(19:34):
of cash?
Speaker 4 (19:35):
Yeah, it's a great question. So I think there's a
lot of interesting elements in this. One of the things
that we're seeing. Zachloe was talking about this morning on
his show, and this thing I've been talking about for
a while. One of the reasons that Memphis made the
Desmond Baine trade. It is very difficult right now to
build with three players making max money and the numbers
I've kind of put on it relative to where the
cap is now. It's going to go up with a
(19:56):
new media deal. But you can't have three guys make
it fifty million. You can have two, never three. You
need two guys making fifty million, one guy making above
thirty million, and then a bunch of guys making between
twenty and five. And that's how you fill in that roster.
That's the new model the owners built into the CBA. Well,
guess what, Chet Holmer and Jadab are both extension eligible
(20:18):
this summer, and they're gonna get the bag because you
can see how valuable they are. If Victor wemen Yama
had not gotten hurt and Chet Holmgren had not gotten hurt,
I still think Chet might have won Defensive Player of
the Year, that's how good he is defensively.
Speaker 5 (20:36):
He's insane.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
Jadob I mean, last night was for all of us
on jadub Island was like, take a look at this.
Speaker 5 (20:42):
So they're gonna extenend those guys. They got one more
year because those extensions.
Speaker 4 (20:46):
Don't kick in til twenty six, twenty seven, the year
after next year, they got one more year. And guess
who comes off the books then Isaiah Hartenstein. So you
clear off the money. Then Chet moves into the center role.
Hopefully he eats some spaghetti and gets a little bit thicker,
he can handle getting bumped on the interior and play
small ball five. You're gonna have guys. They'll fill in
(21:06):
the rest of that roster. But here's the big question
I have, Chad. I look at the Jadab situation and
I think a lot of James Harden twenty twelve. And
the misconception has always been that that move was made
because ownership was cheap, And that move was made because
James Harden knew that he could be an MVP candidate
with a exclusive deal with Adidas, being the front of
(21:28):
their entire shoe line and be that kind of a
star in that kind of a market in Houston. He
knew that kind of earning potential. Jade dubb is gonna
have be faced with that same decision, and Jadab may
have a different set of priorities and maybe like, nope,
I want to be here. This is what I want.
But even then, I'm of the belief you're gonna have
to choose between Chet and Jadub. Eventually you can do
(21:49):
it for maybe a couple of years if Bennet's like, yes,
we've won two championships, I will pay for the the
second Apron tax for a year or two. But eventually
you're gonna hit that snag. It's like things didn't go right,
the chemistry wasn't right, the fit wasn't right. Guys misshot,
someone got injured, and now it's the second round, and
now the pressure is how do you get back to
that top level? And the only way to do that
(22:10):
is to trade one of those Big three because the
second Apron rules in the NBACBA do not allow it.
The other big one, Cason Wallace, is extension eligible at
next summer, and to me, Cason Wallace is a guy
that I would absolutely want to be investing in, Like
he's a sneaky guy that can wind up being an
elite level defender. He's got more bounce off creation, he's
(22:31):
a good shooter. Like Caseon Wallace. Next year maybe one
of the biggest names that we're talking about on the
free agency market and talking about possible sign and trade
situations for OKC Kenrick Williams next summer.
Speaker 5 (22:41):
I think is gonna be a big choice.
Speaker 4 (22:43):
Okac's got next year to contend. They might be the
first team to go back to back since twenty eighteen.
But the talk around the league and all these shows
of like how many titles is OKC gonna win? I'm
setting the over at two and a half. I'm like,
let's settle down because this era is absolutely designed to
prevent that, and it's even harder in markets like Okay.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
See all right, So that's exactly what I wanted to hear.
And how what will be the salary Jalen Williams can get?
What is the salary check Holmegrin can get? What does
the salary Shay can get? He can get like four
for two eighty?
Speaker 2 (23:22):
Right? So is that what it is?
Speaker 3 (23:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (23:24):
I think it's four for two eighty, depending on whether
or not he qualifies. I think he's going to qualify
on your first team All NBA for the Supermax.
Speaker 5 (23:32):
I'll check on that. So that one's a tough one.
Speaker 4 (23:34):
The reality the better way to think about it instead
of getting caught into the specific numbers. Is just to
think about if you're making this money, you're making over fifty,
you're making over fifty mil. And if you're making over
fifty mil, if you're north of those numbers, even at forty,
it gets really tough to keep those course together. And
then you're going to think about the next time their
extension eligible down the line and what that's going to
look like as well.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
All right, So Simon, before we came on, we were
talking about Kevin Durant, how do we play this market, Matt,
how do we think about where Durant is going to go?
And how can we preemptively get into the Kevin Durant
sweepstakes by predicting the best landing spot with the best value.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
So there's a couple of these that I think are
interesting as ways to kind of look at it. I
think the best way to do it is to think
about what you're going to do immediately in the aftermath
an ideal situation.
Speaker 5 (24:30):
I understand because tav we were talking before our show.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
About like the outsized reaction to Desmond Dane right Arthury
Mitchell on the show, like the outside reaction that trade,
but like the dream scenario for a lot of us
is that Durant gets traded to Miami and Miami immediately
gets steamed, and then Orlando will fall into vision odds,
and that's going to be I think, a great opportunity
to get in or in Orlando. The biggest thing I
(24:55):
do want to tell listeners, don't get into the market
in the first twenty four hours after a trade. Do
not do it, like unless you are ahead of the move,
like if you were in the thirteen seconds that you've
got before news breaks and that market moves. Unless you're there,
do not buy into it.
Speaker 5 (25:09):
It's never worth it.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
These moves are always these trades are always exaggerated in
the market, and you're always gonna be able to get
a better price no matter what it is, Like it's
very rare that you don't get a better price.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
And also you're saying, Matt Metell, I mean more, it's
be careful people when you're betting in those markets. That's
how you get banned. Like people don't realize it. Like books,
they're looking for people like you that are ahead of
the marketer or you're getting intel quicker than them. So
I feel like he's giving you good advice here of
just being careful of betting these type of numbers because
either you're gonna get got because you're getting bad information,
(25:40):
or you're making a bad decision trying to buy in
early and try to get a good number.
Speaker 4 (25:45):
So as far as Katie's landing spot right now, the
favorites in the market are tied between Miami and Houston.
I would say Houston is more likely because that's a
solution where everyone wins. Katie wants to go to Houston,
Houston gets an offensive upgrade, and Houston can afford to
send stuff back to Phoenix that Phoenix isn't gonna be
thrilled with. It's not the hall they want. But if
(26:07):
the options are Andrew Wiggins and a bad first or
Jalen Green potentially Jabari Smith and a pretty good first,
especially if it's one of your own that they own
all of, that's a pretty good situation. Phoenix will Houston
will try and squeeze him for it. The best way
(26:28):
to kind of think of it. For Houston, there is
a disagreement there. I think Imadoka wants Kevin Durant. He
wants to win now because coaches want to win now,
and he knows like, give me Kevin Durant and my
defense and we'll go win games. Raphael Stone GM I
think is like we got to be we can.
Speaker 5 (26:43):
Get a top.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
Like if we keep squeezing them, we can get Devin Booker,
who's younger, a lot more upside. We can have him forever,
or we can go get another guy. With all these assets,
our investment in Phoenix's draft picks are only going to improve.
Look how desperate they are and that battle I think
is really interesting, Like does Phoenix wanted does Houston want
to help out Phoenix in this deal? But they are
(27:07):
a team that can help them out without saving them,
And then so to me, between those two is valuable.
The long shot for me is the Clippers at fifty
to one. They have consistently been They got popped up
over the weekend.
Speaker 5 (27:18):
First it was like, oh, yeah.
Speaker 4 (27:19):
It's Houston, It's Houston, San Antonio, Miami, New York, Minnesota,
and then all of a sudden, the Clippers started popping
up over the weekend. They've had a lot of talks,
Like I've heard about Clippers talks four weeks now. I
don't think there is substantive as talks between Minnesota, Houston,
San Antonio, even Miami. I don't think there is substantive,
but I do think that those conversations have been held,
(27:40):
and I think that the Clippers, especially if you're matt
Ishbia and you're like, I don't want to be bad,
I don't care about draft picks. I want to win games.
I told them that we would win.
Speaker 5 (27:49):
Let's win. We got Devin Booker, let's win.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
The Clippers can at least give you, like Norman Powell,
guys that will help you win. Now they're gonna want
Zoobach and I don't think the Clippers are gonna give
them up.
Speaker 5 (27:58):
But if they were to ever.
Speaker 4 (27:59):
Change on that, then boy, would that be a really
great situation to be a terrible trade for the Clippers.
But I also think Balmer, you know, coming off of
that playoff loss, wants to get more people into that
great new arena. I think that Katie makes a lot
of sense for them putting them back with Harden. So
Clippers fifty to one to me is the best long
shot in the market.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
Yeah, I feel like what you touched on that we
all know the East is wide open, you know, the professionals,
and it feels like the public are final. It's Orlando, right,
Is that the team that everyone's just piling in on
now to win the East because they're just a team
that people think they can make up Pacers run he
or Is that kind of fool's gold here that we're buying.
Speaker 5 (28:36):
I think.
Speaker 4 (28:39):
I think that nobody really knows yet. Like I wouldn't
buy into the East market at all right now because
you don't know if the Knicks are going to move
somebody to make another thing, because they got a lot
of chemistry questions, like, they got things they got to
figure out. I think Indiana you got to wait to
see what Miles Turner does. Like Miles Turner is up there.
If some team just comes in and is like, yeah,
we don't care, we'll pay forty Monell that's a huge
(29:01):
price for Miles Turner. It's also ten more than what
Indiana wants to pay him. I think they settle at
thirty five. But if somebody offers him forty, then you
could probably get Miles Turner in free agency. The Calves
are probably good value just because they're going to return
the same kind of guys, but they might make a move.
I think Jared Allen might be gone and you don't
know what they're going to get back for him. Orlando's
(29:21):
maybe good value at plus eight hundred, but I'm still
kind of like, are you really going to want a
big position on Orlando if they're in the conference finals
versus a veteran team that's been there and knows what
they're doing. Like, I like Orlando a lot, but I'm
not sure that I feel like they're going to be
the thunder. I don't think they're going to be that
kind of a team. Pistons actually, to me, is probably
the best value at twenty to one because they're only
(29:43):
going to get better and they got some They are
shopping in free agency like they are going for it.
So I think Detroit's really interesting at twenty to one.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
It's going to be interesting, though, chat to see what
free agent wants to go to Detroit though, right like
in the NBA, like we're talking about Miami San Antonio,
like it's it's gonna be funny with Kevin Durant to
somehow ended up in Detroit.
Speaker 1 (30:04):
Well, look, he doesn't want to go to Minnesota. We know,
and a lot of guys, but it becomes like one
of those things, how much do you want to ring?
How much do you want to play with Kaid Cunningham?
How much do you like JB. Bickerstaff? That roster showed
so well against the Knicks. That was a much closer
series than I think anyone anticipated.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
And so if I want.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
To win, I'm a mid I'm sort of a mid
career free agent. You get a really young team that's
got a great culture. Why wouldn't you go take a
shot four years try.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
To win your title? Matt Moore, I like it.
Speaker 1 (30:40):
Tasty, tasty stuff. Thank you for giving us the thunder
and six. I hope you continue to give us more
and more prescientt nuggets in subsequent episode of The Favorites
as well as buckets, don't forget Pacers, Thunder Game six
(31:01):
from Indie number open six now down to five, moving
back to five and a half. Simon and I will
return with our next episode of The Favorites Thursday on
the Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your podcasts, Rate review, subscribe, leave us
five stars, say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Feedback is a gift until next time. Love you.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help Us
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the favorites of the podcast. We are part
of the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of
the Action Network. Today I am joined as always by
my co host, my companion, my padre, my BFF professional
better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I'm giving you a.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Very special, very exaggerated, very English hello.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Soymon, Hello Chad. Perfect day here in Burnley, lovely, lovely
sunny day here in the United Kingdom. It's beautiful.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Well listen, I know you've been in training trying to
throw down as many pints as you can getting ready.
You've been in England for less than twelve hours.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Are you drunk? Have you entered into any coal mines?
Have you joined?
Speaker 1 (01:00):
And peaky blinders? Are you carrying razor blades in your cap?
What's happening in Burnley right now?
Speaker 3 (01:09):
God bless my cousins. They bought me cors Light because
they said that they think I only could drink light beer.
So I had a cors Light and I've said a
couple in it. So other than that, that's as British
as I've gone so far. So early days, Chad News.
I landed this morning. I'm on two hours of sleep
and yeah, tonight I'm sure it's like six thirty here,
(01:30):
so I'm sure after this call I'm gonna have a
couple drinks and my cousins. I'm looking forward to it.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, what's gonna happen? Are you gonna go to a
public What happens in England?
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Yeah? Like literally, I mean that's why I love England.
I'm a block away, so walk down to the local pub,
have some fish and chips, have a couple of drinks
and watch some football matches. Will be a good night.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
I feel like you on two hours of sleep, flying
overnight is no different than me staying up to watch
the end of the NBA Finals, which is about two
and a half hours past my bedtime. Uh. We're going
to talk a little bit about that today with our
(02:11):
brilliant analyst host of the Buckets podcast, the man who
made us last week bet the Okac thunder in six
as well as the Pacers in seven. You know him
as the man who says the word subsequently subsequent.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
Mister Matt Moore, I did it again this week. I
did really again on a show and was just killing
myself for it. I'm like, what is wrong with me?
I'm gonna go to like a hypnotist therapist to get
me to say subsequent correctly.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
I don't even think they say it like that in England,
like it's not even a word.
Speaker 5 (02:51):
Nope, it's just me. It's just me. I'm the problem.
It's me.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
That's the problem for us. Matt Moore because after our
conversation last week, me and Simon both bet on the
Thunder to win in six and it's looking decent. I mean,
Tyrese Halliburton, we can talk a little bit about the game.
There's a lot to say, not just about the game,
but since the last time we spoke, there's a lot
(03:21):
of activity in a variety of markets for the NBA.
Whether it's what's going to happen with Kevin Durant, and
I think that has subsequent value in the betting markets
for where we think he might land. There are conversations
for top five markets for the NBA draft. Desmond Bane
was traded from Memphis to Orlando. That got it to
(03:44):
me kind of an outsized reaction from people, but also
having an impact on what people think now of the
Eastern Conference in the NBA. So there's a lot to
break down when it comes to NBA right now, We're
entering into that super dramatic high school drama off season
of the NBA, which I love. But right now, as
(04:04):
we talk about it, the Thunder of a three to
two lead shake Gilgess. Alexander is averaging about thirty three
a game. Jalen Williams had forty last night for the Thunder.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
They're up three to two.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Tyrese Halliburton has injured his calf. He played with a
tight calf. Here's what's interesting to me. I don't know
what's going to happen in the next two games, but
I do know that it seems very strange to me
how frequently frequently it takes Tyre's Halliburton to get into
(04:36):
the offensive flow in these big games. When he's great,
he's great, But why is it so hard for him
to find buckets in these big games? Too often it's
like the second quarter and you're seeing Tyres Haliburton hasn't
scored yet.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
Yeah, So I think there's a couple of things that happened,
depending on what the matchup is. You know, last night,
I think the injury really was pretty severe and it
was enough to really hamper him. Now he's going to
get so much treatment, Like the amount of treatment you
would not believe.
Speaker 5 (05:04):
I don't think people really understand.
Speaker 4 (05:05):
It's like, oh, he'll receive treatment, and they think it's like, oh,
he'll go in and they'll.
Speaker 5 (05:09):
Work on him.
Speaker 4 (05:09):
No, it's like they go to his house, they work
on him, he goes to sleep, they wake up, they
come to his house, they work on him.
Speaker 5 (05:14):
He goes to the arena, they work.
Speaker 4 (05:16):
It's constant over the next you know, seventy two hours
before they get to game six.
Speaker 5 (05:23):
So that was part of it.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
The other thing is that the Thunder have high pickup points,
so they're pressuring him up the court consistently, and they've
gotten to where there it's like, all right, we have
to pressure him all the way up the court. Then
there's the matter of the pick and roll coverage. Like, okay,
what's the easiest way to get Tyree's loose. Let's say
a screen for him and separate. Starting in game four,
the Thunder, we're like, fine, fine, we'll switch. They never
(05:46):
want to do that. They want to play drop because
it helps them protect the paint. They started switching and
like we called it on buckets pregame, which you can
catch every every pregame before the finals and have remaining
We have left at six point thirty eastern. We talked
about how, look, Tyree's unders are a great spot here
because they're gonna switch everything and Tyrese is not good
at challenging that, and that means the other thunder guys
don't have to help off, so his assist lanes are
(06:08):
not there. It's just one on one, go get a bucket,
and that's not Tyrese's game.
Speaker 5 (06:13):
He wants to shape it.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
He wants to force gravity and then separate things and
create open lanes for guys or work off ball, and
he's willing to defer if he feels like that's the
right play. Jokic had the same problem a couple of
years ago, and not a couple of years ago, like five,
six years ago, where I would actually like Joker and
I have like this ongoing tension because I'm always i
would ask him, I'm like, as the like, do you
(06:34):
feel like you're the best player on this team?
Speaker 5 (06:36):
And he'd always be like, no, not at all, and
I'm like, Choker, like come on.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
And Tyrese has the same thing where he just wants
to kind of be part of a team that makes
everybody better. He doesn't want to be the guy that
scores thirty five. He wants to win the game by
shaping it. But the thunder are saying, no, you're gonna
have to beat Chet Hunger in one on one and
get a bucket, and you're gonna have to do it
enough that we help off. And that lenge is what
really works against Tyrese, is what makes him disengage. And
(07:04):
they've beaten the Knicks, and they've beaten the Calves because Nemhard,
Nie Smith, Miles, Turner, Pascal have been able to attack
those matchups off ball with the space that's provided. Okay,
so he's a different beast and that's why I think
you're seeing some of this with Tyreee on top.
Speaker 5 (07:20):
Of the injury.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Simon, did you want to jump in because I have
another question.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
Yeah, I mean, I'm just like you know, I'm I've
loved this series. There's just so much that's going on
that's I mean, anyone that's just been knocking this series
just really has missed out on what is why we
love basketball. And to me, that Game four, that pivotal
moment of SGA and just okay, See's stepping up right
They're down ten points set into that fourth quarter, and
I don't know about you, but I thought this is
(07:46):
over right, Like this is they're down to a team
and you know the Pacers that can close these games out,
can they can they live up to the moment to
come back. And the fact that you know we've all
seen it. Sga at the end of that game, stepped up,
hits some shots, had his moment and now here we
are in the next game, right and you know Halliburton
goes down. He does not look like the same player.
(08:08):
We're all sitting here right that it's it's over for OKC.
I would love to know your view, Matt on this
opening number, because it opened six. Professionals came in obviously
quickly took that number. They've taken the five and a half.
I know some pros have taken the five, and now
you're seeing some four and a halfs. Is this because
of what you just talked about. Is Halliburton gonna be
game ready? Is that why this numbers moving or is
(08:30):
this just professionals taking a stand on a number where
you know this is a thunder team that struggles on
their road. Is that simply as simple as that so
this is.
Speaker 4 (08:39):
One of those, and we don't see this as often
in the NBA. Really takes until I think the finals
until we see this. From what I'm seeing, it very
much looks like groups are fighting over the number, and
we don't see that very often in NBA because there's
not enough interest or money on it, and then the
limits are lower. So this open, like you mentioned this
open six, it immediately pops down to five. There's some
four and a half showing, but now we're going back
(08:59):
up to five five and a half in the market
because now today we're seeing sharp action coming back in
on OKC. And whether that's Intel saying hey, Haliburton's probably
not gonna be ready, or the immediate move was just
based off of all right, look you pop this at six.
Indy's been competitive. OKC is oh and eight a t
or I'm sorry, now eight and one or one in
(09:20):
eight on the road ats in the playoffs. This is
enough to get me to go ahead and take Indy
as a reaction here with this price point. Now we're
seeing some of this coming back on OKA. See all
the trends are going to suggest, okay, see is the
spot here? It does look like Okac's gotten to be themselves.
Speaker 5 (09:37):
They look.
Speaker 4 (09:37):
Game five was the first game in this series where
I was like, oh, there's the thunder, Like I haven't
seen them since the Wolve series. And if that, I'm
resistant to these momentum shifts because if you'd ask me,
and if you told me, like, hey, they're gonna they're
gonna split in in OKAC one and two, I've been like, oh,
Indie wins three, OKAC wins four, OKAC wins five, Indie
(09:58):
wins six, Like that's a game script. The trends on
the spot with Tyre's Haliburton and probably suggests that OKAC
is better than what that that suggestion would lead you towards.
The number has been really interesting though, where this is
I mean this is also fighting over literally two possessions
here right Like this is right on the verge. If
it gets to four, that's like where the margin inside
(10:18):
of like five seconds, the team will let it go
like all right, we can't get this, we can't. We're
not gonna be able to close this gap. But at six,
now that's a different kind of margin here. So you're
fighting over these very very careful price points I think here,
and you're seeing a little bit more sharp action fighting
over this number than we've seen in most of the
other finals.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
I think, are we getting a clue from this number
in the movement how much Tyrese Haliburton is worth to
the point spread?
Speaker 4 (10:46):
Probably not, because it's like he's gonna play, like Rick
Carlisle said, He's going to play. And the question is,
now we're in this spot of trying to put a
number on an ephemeral thing because we always talk about
like he's ninety percent eight, like there's no way to
quantify that. You can't quantify the human body. So it's is,
if Tyrese is fifty or forty percent, this number has
(11:07):
to move two and a half three. If this is
Tyrese is seventy eighty percent, you're talking about a half point,
maybe a point.
Speaker 5 (11:14):
And I think that there's.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
Probably some of the buyback today based off of Look,
if Tyrese isn't one hundred percent, how are they going
to win this game? Like that's got to be some
of this conversation is just how are they going to
win this game if Tyrese is literally a decoy in
the corner. Now, the funny part is a really good
reaction would be it's Indiana, do not bring your logic
in here, because they have defied that consistently all playoffs.
(11:36):
But that's more of a gut feeling than a quantitative
edge perspective. So I think some of this is probably
reflective of the idea of Okase he's got momentum, the
trend support Game six road Favorites trying to close out
the series. Oka see is better based off of the
power rating. Still, they've re established control of the series,
and Tyrese Haliburton is not going to be one hundred
percent no matter what whatever he was before, because nobody's
(11:58):
one hundred percent right now. He was not now he's
seventy whatever. Wherever you land on, that has to I
think impact your cap on this. That's why it's gonna
be tough for pacers backers.
Speaker 5 (12:07):
I think in the spot.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
What's what's a little bit deceiving is Matt Maybe while
I'm asking this question, you can look up what was
the number in Game four in Indy Thunder were down
ten Shae hits, then they're down I think five, or
(12:29):
they're down four Shaye hits the three pointer, they're down
one oh three, one oh two. I think then he
hits that two pointer in the corner when he bumps
Nie Smith off. Now they're up one. From that point on,
the Pacers only score one more point. I think the
(12:50):
game closes seven. What was the spread in that game?
Game game four closed minus six ended at seven, And
thank you Matt Mitchell for throwing that in there. So
the Thunder ended up covering that game. What a deceptive
cover and what a bad be it. I think that's
(13:10):
what you're talking about when you're saying, look at this
number at the end, the number might be bigger than
the game appears.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
The fears and it took. It took off ball fouls too.
That was the killer, right.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
It was like they kept picking up off ball fouls
to get one and the ball, and that to me
is like absolutely crazy. Like Mitchell has commented here that
they covered for a total of six point seven seconds. Now,
I was on Thunder to cover in that game and
that was one of the all time like thank you
Jesus moments in that game. But yeah, like, Okaysee's ability
(13:42):
to win by their what is their overall margin on
the road has been extremely difficult throughout the playoffs. We
saw this not just the nugget series. We saw this
in Memphis, they go down thirty, they have to storm back,
but they don't cover. We see this in Minnesota, they
don't cover. They've consistently struggled to cover on the road.
Speaker 5 (14:01):
Here.
Speaker 4 (14:02):
The problem, I think is also a series flow, though.
If the Thunder are up in that fourth quarter and
Indy gets that sense of we can't do it, like
we're out, we've run out of gas and we're done.
There's a lot of spots where I've seen teams in
that kind of situation facing elimination down in the fourth
quarter and like you just don't and the other team, meanwhile,
is like, just keep punching, just keep punching them.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
We can finish this, we can win the title.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
That momentum shift, Like that's the highest point of adversity,
is you are down in the fourth quarter facing elimination
after playing for six months of basketball, you've gotten all
the way here. That's a really tough spot. And so
I think that both those things are true. Like it
doesn't feel like to me this is a I thought.
I thought Game five was a good Pacers cover Thunder
(14:50):
win spot, and the Thunder got over the line because
they were all the forced turnovers for the first time,
which is out of context for the series.
Speaker 5 (14:56):
This one does not feel like that. This one does not.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
I feel like, if you're look, if you like, you
need to be on money line. If they're going to
be within range of this game, they're going to have
the extra edge.
Speaker 5 (15:05):
We can do this. We're right there. We can win
this game.
Speaker 4 (15:08):
Thunder winning close to me, is the least likely of
the outcomes.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
I was in the sportsbook for that game, that game four,
just being on the professionals we bet on the NBA.
I love talking about it because the NBA Finals, the
books get so sharp. I remember at some point they
were down, like you said, they were down one or
two points, and SGA gets them back into the game
that he basically gets them up by one, and my
buddy turning to me, he said, they're going to somehow
(15:32):
cover this game. And while only hitting or two May
threes at the time, and then afink he hit one more,
so they're up to three mad threes. He's like, this
is why I love betting, though, because every sucker in
this room is on the Pacers because everyone knows that
stat that OKAC has not covered on the road and
he's like, I know this is going to land on
seven and sure enough, you know the exact what was
it at one eleven and one oh four? Yeah? I
(15:52):
turned to him, I was like, I love this is
why I love betting so much, because it's like you
knew any better knew that was coming, right though. Stupid
free throws, the Pacers missing free throws. So my view
of this, Matt is like you're saying that back and
forth on this number right now is the professionals are
fighting because the books are getting so sharp, right, I
mean last game, what did they what was the cover
(16:13):
that was nine and a half? I think the final
point was eleven? Right, was a one oh nine? Right?
So like the books, even with you know, Halliburna being injured,
it's still right there. Like the books are so sharp
right now. So anyone listening to this just be careful,
like you're betting into a right now, a market that
is at the highest level. Like the books just seem
(16:34):
like they're captinets so well. So I like what I'm
viewing here with Matt Moore talking about I like the
adjusted line, right, is this not a nice spot to take?
OKAC minus twelve and a half, a little Brandon Anderson
or take the Pacers money line, right. I love that
type of scenario here. Or do you think this is
gonna be a closer game and I'm giving a credit format.
Speaker 5 (16:50):
I don't mind this as an alt spot.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
The trick is though, one of the things that because
like I started Live Bett and thunder Alts last night
first quarter because I was like, man, pacers are dead here,
They're just looking like they're out of it.
Speaker 5 (17:02):
Okaysey's got this. If okase wins.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
At home, their average margin and victory in the playoffs
is twenty six points. This is good value here with
this kind of number. Indiana's got a rare ability to
just never get kicked off the ladder, like Okay Tyre's
Halliburton's hurt, Pascal si Okam seeing three defenders, Miles Turner
(17:24):
can't do anything.
Speaker 5 (17:25):
Here comes TJ.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
McConnell, gonna make things happen. Here's Ben dig Mathern hitting
big shots to keep them within range. And Okasey's half
court This is the big thing. If you really want
to know the reason, it's that Okasey's half court offense
never gears up, their defense gears up their half court
offense stays at the same.
Speaker 5 (17:46):
Level or lower. That's all they really do.
Speaker 4 (17:49):
They never hit this this gear where you're like, man,
what an incredible offensive performance. They got an amazing game
from Jadub, they got a good game from Shay. They
generate a lot of free throws for Shay, But like,
this wasn't a they're absolutely killing them because they don't
really have that gear offensively.
Speaker 5 (18:05):
It's all in the defensive end.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
It's why I like thunder Team total over and didn't
want Pacers anything.
Speaker 5 (18:11):
On their team total or the combined over.
Speaker 4 (18:13):
I only wanted Thunder Team total because I was like,
they're gonna go over this number because of the speed
of the game. But their offense never really gears up.
It just you hit a couple of more threes or not.
They're not gonna have this dominant performance where they blow
you out because they shot forty eight percent from three.
Speaker 5 (18:29):
That's not gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
If they're gonna blow you out, it's because you score
eighty and that's hard to do against an Indiana team
that's whose offensive floor is so high.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
When you look at this thunder team, I was watching
this game last night and everyone talks about dynasty. They
threw up that graphic about the Blazers and this is
the second youngest team since the Blazers.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
That has a chance to win a title.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
And Shay is twenty six and Jalen Williams is twenty three.
And obviously Shay's going to get a bag. He's going
to get seventy million a year, and Jalen Williams when
he's eligible, is going to get at whatever max deal
he's eligible for. You're gonna have a construct similar to
what the Celtics have right where you're paying north of
probably could be by then four hundred million dollars to
(19:13):
Shay Gilgis Alexander and to Jalen Williams. It's hard to
maintain a dynasty when you're spending that much money on
two players handicapped. For me, what this team looks like
over the next two to three years, who are the
pieces they can keep, Who are the players that are
gonna have to go somewhere else to get a bag
(19:34):
of cash?
Speaker 4 (19:35):
Yeah, it's a great question. So I think there's a
lot of interesting elements in this. One of the things
that we're seeing. Zachloe was talking about this morning on
his show, and this thing I've been talking about for
a while. One of the reasons that Memphis made the
Desmond Baine trade. It is very difficult right now to
build with three players making max money and the numbers
I've kind of put on it relative to where the
cap is now. It's going to go up with a
(19:56):
new media deal. But you can't have three guys make
it fifty million. You can have two, never three. You
need two guys making fifty million, one guy making above
thirty million, and then a bunch of guys making between
twenty and five. And that's how you fill in that roster.
That's the new model the owners built into the CBA. Well,
guess what, Chet Holmer and Jadab are both extension eligible
(20:18):
this summer, and they're gonna get the bag because you
can see how valuable they are. If Victor wemen Yama
had not gotten hurt and Chet Holmgren had not gotten hurt,
I still think Chet might have won Defensive Player of
the Year, that's how good he is defensively.
Speaker 5 (20:36):
He's insane.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
Jadob I mean, last night was for all of us
on jadub Island was like, take a look at this.
Speaker 5 (20:42):
So they're gonna extenend those guys. They got one more
year because those extensions.
Speaker 4 (20:46):
Don't kick in til twenty six, twenty seven, the year
after next year, they got one more year. And guess
who comes off the books then Isaiah Hartenstein. So you
clear off the money. Then Chet moves into the center role.
Hopefully he eats some spaghetti and gets a little bit thicker,
he can handle getting bumped on the interior and play
small ball five. You're gonna have guys. They'll fill in
(21:06):
the rest of that roster. But here's the big question
I have, Chad. I look at the Jadab situation and
I think a lot of James Harden twenty twelve. And
the misconception has always been that that move was made
because ownership was cheap, And that move was made because
James Harden knew that he could be an MVP candidate
with a exclusive deal with Adidas, being the front of
(21:28):
their entire shoe line and be that kind of a
star in that kind of a market in Houston. He
knew that kind of earning potential. Jade dubb is gonna
have be faced with that same decision, and Jadab may
have a different set of priorities and maybe like, nope,
I want to be here. This is what I want.
But even then, I'm of the belief you're gonna have
to choose between Chet and Jadub. Eventually you can do
(21:49):
it for maybe a couple of years if Bennet's like, yes,
we've won two championships, I will pay for the the
second Apron tax for a year or two. But eventually
you're gonna hit that snag. It's like things didn't go right,
the chemistry wasn't right, the fit wasn't right. Guys misshot,
someone got injured, and now it's the second round, and
now the pressure is how do you get back to
that top level? And the only way to do that
(22:10):
is to trade one of those Big three because the
second Apron rules in the NBACBA do not allow it.
The other big one, Cason Wallace, is extension eligible at
next summer, and to me, Cason Wallace is a guy
that I would absolutely want to be investing in, Like
he's a sneaky guy that can wind up being an
elite level defender. He's got more bounce off creation, he's
(22:31):
a good shooter. Like Caseon Wallace. Next year maybe one
of the biggest names that we're talking about on the
free agency market and talking about possible sign and trade
situations for OKC Kenrick Williams next summer.
Speaker 5 (22:41):
I think is gonna be a big choice.
Speaker 4 (22:43):
Okac's got next year to contend. They might be the
first team to go back to back since twenty eighteen.
But the talk around the league and all these shows
of like how many titles is OKC gonna win? I'm
setting the over at two and a half. I'm like,
let's settle down because this era is absolutely designed to
prevent that, and it's even harder in markets like Okay.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
See all right, So that's exactly what I wanted to hear.
And how what will be the salary Jalen Williams can get?
What is the salary check Holmegrin can get? What does
the salary Shay can get? He can get like four
for two eighty?
Speaker 2 (23:22):
Right? So is that what it is?
Speaker 3 (23:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (23:24):
I think it's four for two eighty, depending on whether
or not he qualifies. I think he's going to qualify
on your first team All NBA for the Supermax.
Speaker 5 (23:32):
I'll check on that. So that one's a tough one.
Speaker 4 (23:34):
The reality the better way to think about it instead
of getting caught into the specific numbers. Is just to
think about if you're making this money, you're making over fifty,
you're making over fifty mil. And if you're making over
fifty mil, if you're north of those numbers, even at forty,
it gets really tough to keep those course together. And
then you're going to think about the next time their
extension eligible down the line and what that's going to
look like as well.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
All right, So Simon, before we came on, we were
talking about Kevin Durant, how do we play this market, Matt,
how do we think about where Durant is going to go?
And how can we preemptively get into the Kevin Durant
sweepstakes by predicting the best landing spot with the best value.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
So there's a couple of these that I think are
interesting as ways to kind of look at it. I
think the best way to do it is to think
about what you're going to do immediately in the aftermath
an ideal situation.
Speaker 5 (24:30):
I understand because tav we were talking before our show.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
About like the outsized reaction to Desmond Dane right Arthury
Mitchell on the show, like the outside reaction that trade,
but like the dream scenario for a lot of us
is that Durant gets traded to Miami and Miami immediately
gets steamed, and then Orlando will fall into vision odds,
and that's going to be I think, a great opportunity
to get in or in Orlando. The biggest thing I
(24:55):
do want to tell listeners, don't get into the market
in the first twenty four hours after a trade. Do
not do it, like unless you are ahead of the move,
like if you were in the thirteen seconds that you've
got before news breaks and that market moves. Unless you're there,
do not buy into it.
Speaker 5 (25:09):
It's never worth it.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
These moves are always these trades are always exaggerated in
the market, and you're always gonna be able to get
a better price no matter what it is, Like it's
very rare that you don't get a better price.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
And also you're saying, Matt Metell, I mean more, it's
be careful people when you're betting in those markets. That's
how you get banned. Like people don't realize it. Like books,
they're looking for people like you that are ahead of
the marketer or you're getting intel quicker than them. So
I feel like he's giving you good advice here of
just being careful of betting these type of numbers because
either you're gonna get got because you're getting bad information,
(25:40):
or you're making a bad decision trying to buy in
early and try to get a good number.
Speaker 4 (25:45):
So as far as Katie's landing spot right now, the
favorites in the market are tied between Miami and Houston.
I would say Houston is more likely because that's a
solution where everyone wins. Katie wants to go to Houston,
Houston gets an offensive upgrade, and Houston can afford to
send stuff back to Phoenix that Phoenix isn't gonna be
thrilled with. It's not the hall they want. But if
(26:07):
the options are Andrew Wiggins and a bad first or
Jalen Green potentially Jabari Smith and a pretty good first,
especially if it's one of your own that they own
all of, that's a pretty good situation. Phoenix will Houston
will try and squeeze him for it. The best way
(26:28):
to kind of think of it. For Houston, there is
a disagreement there. I think Imadoka wants Kevin Durant. He
wants to win now because coaches want to win now,
and he knows like, give me Kevin Durant and my
defense and we'll go win games. Raphael Stone GM I
think is like we got to be we can.
Speaker 5 (26:43):
Get a top.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
Like if we keep squeezing them, we can get Devin Booker,
who's younger, a lot more upside. We can have him forever,
or we can go get another guy. With all these assets,
our investment in Phoenix's draft picks are only going to improve.
Look how desperate they are and that battle I think
is really interesting, Like does Phoenix wanted does Houston want
to help out Phoenix in this deal? But they are
(27:07):
a team that can help them out without saving them,
And then so to me, between those two is valuable.
The long shot for me is the Clippers at fifty
to one. They have consistently been They got popped up
over the weekend.
Speaker 5 (27:18):
First it was like, oh, yeah.
Speaker 4 (27:19):
It's Houston, It's Houston, San Antonio, Miami, New York, Minnesota,
and then all of a sudden, the Clippers started popping
up over the weekend. They've had a lot of talks,
Like I've heard about Clippers talks four weeks now. I
don't think there is substantive as talks between Minnesota, Houston,
San Antonio, even Miami. I don't think there is substantive,
but I do think that those conversations have been held,
(27:40):
and I think that the Clippers, especially if you're matt
Ishbia and you're like, I don't want to be bad,
I don't care about draft picks. I want to win games.
I told them that we would win.
Speaker 5 (27:49):
Let's win. We got Devin Booker, let's win.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
The Clippers can at least give you, like Norman Powell,
guys that will help you win. Now they're gonna want
Zoobach and I don't think the Clippers are gonna give
them up.
Speaker 5 (27:58):
But if they were to ever.
Speaker 4 (27:59):
Change on that, then boy, would that be a really
great situation to be a terrible trade for the Clippers.
But I also think Balmer, you know, coming off of
that playoff loss, wants to get more people into that
great new arena. I think that Katie makes a lot
of sense for them putting them back with Harden. So
Clippers fifty to one to me is the best long
shot in the market.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
Yeah, I feel like what you touched on that we
all know the East is wide open, you know, the professionals,
and it feels like the public are final. It's Orlando, right,
Is that the team that everyone's just piling in on
now to win the East because they're just a team
that people think they can make up Pacers run he
or Is that kind of fool's gold here that we're buying.
Speaker 5 (28:36):
I think.
Speaker 4 (28:39):
I think that nobody really knows yet. Like I wouldn't
buy into the East market at all right now because
you don't know if the Knicks are going to move
somebody to make another thing, because they got a lot
of chemistry questions, like, they got things they got to
figure out. I think Indiana you got to wait to
see what Miles Turner does. Like Miles Turner is up there.
If some team just comes in and is like, yeah,
we don't care, we'll pay forty Monell that's a huge
(29:01):
price for Miles Turner. It's also ten more than what
Indiana wants to pay him. I think they settle at
thirty five. But if somebody offers him forty, then you
could probably get Miles Turner in free agency. The Calves
are probably good value just because they're going to return
the same kind of guys, but they might make a move.
I think Jared Allen might be gone and you don't
know what they're going to get back for him. Orlando's
(29:21):
maybe good value at plus eight hundred, but I'm still
kind of like, are you really going to want a
big position on Orlando if they're in the conference finals
versus a veteran team that's been there and knows what
they're doing. Like, I like Orlando a lot, but I'm
not sure that I feel like they're going to be
the thunder. I don't think they're going to be that
kind of a team. Pistons actually, to me, is probably
the best value at twenty to one because they're only
(29:43):
going to get better and they got some They are
shopping in free agency like they are going for it.
So I think Detroit's really interesting at twenty to one.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
It's going to be interesting, though, chat to see what
free agent wants to go to Detroit though, right like
in the NBA, like we're talking about Miami San Antonio,
like it's it's gonna be funny with Kevin Durant to
somehow ended up in Detroit.
Speaker 1 (30:04):
Well, look, he doesn't want to go to Minnesota. We know,
and a lot of guys, but it becomes like one
of those things, how much do you want to ring?
How much do you want to play with Kaid Cunningham?
How much do you like JB. Bickerstaff? That roster showed
so well against the Knicks. That was a much closer
series than I think anyone anticipated.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
And so if I want.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
To win, I'm a mid I'm sort of a mid
career free agent. You get a really young team that's
got a great culture. Why wouldn't you go take a
shot four years try.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
To win your title? Matt Moore, I like it.
Speaker 1 (30:40):
Tasty, tasty stuff. Thank you for giving us the thunder
and six. I hope you continue to give us more
and more prescientt nuggets in subsequent episode of The Favorites
as well as buckets, don't forget Pacers, Thunder Game six
(31:01):
from Indie number open six now down to five, moving
back to five and a half. Simon and I will
return with our next episode of The Favorites Thursday on
the Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your podcasts, Rate review, subscribe, leave us
five stars, say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Feedback is a gift until next time. Love you.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
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