Jason breaks down all angles of the Golden State Warriors’ offseason, what they're trying to do around the core of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green, the latest on the Jonathan Kuminga situation, whether Boston Celtics big man Al Horford is going to sign with the Dubs, and more. Then he discusses the Bradley Beal buyout rumors with the Phoenix Suns and which teams would be a good fit for him.
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Slash audio. All right, welcome to hoops tonight. You're at
(01:53):
the volume heavy Monday. If your buddy Hope, all the
guys had an incredible weekend. Got a jam pack show
for you guys today. We're getting a couple of big
storyline from around the NBA. I want to start with
the Golden State Warriors. We haven't actually talked about them
yet this offseason because they've had a very uneventful offseason
to this point, but there are a couple of things
that are hanging over them. A potential center signing that
(02:14):
we will discuss, as well as the Jonathan Minga situation.
Just how we got here, some of my frustrations just
from afar watching this whole situation and what could potentially
come good from that situation. So some Warriors talk off
the top after that. We've had extensive reporting from around
the league that Bradley Beal might reach a buy out
with the Phoenix Suns today, So I want to talk
(02:35):
about what Bradley Beal's season looked like, two seasons looked
like in Phoenix, some of the realities about his game,
how it didn't work there, and what types of teams
make sense for him to go to moving forward, including
a trade that took place this morning that I think
opens the door for an obvious Bradley Beal destination. So
lots of stuff to get into today. You guys are
(02:56):
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(03:17):
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So all you gotta do is in the YouTube comments,
put mail bag with a colon, write your question, and
once a week throughout the offseason, we'll be hitting your
guys's mail bag questions from those comments. All right, let's
talk some basketball. So this is the extent of the
(03:38):
Golden State Warriors offseason so far. They got into Kevin
Durant trade as one of the seven teams and acquired
the draft rights to a couple of late second round guys.
They lost Kevin Looney, who signed a deal with the
New Orleans Pelicans, and they're letting Gary Payton a second go,
although he hasn't signed elsewhere yet. But that's it. So
not an ideal summer yet for a Warriors team that
(04:01):
just loaded up with Jimmy Butler, it could really use
an upgrade in the form of a perimeter scoring threat.
I've been fixated it on this for a while, those
of you guys who have been listening to the show.
This is something I've been specifically shining a light on
over the course of the last few seasons, because even
though the Jimmy Butler trade addressed a myriad of issues,
and I still think it's a resounding success the Jimmy
(04:25):
Butler trade, and it definitely vaulted Golden State into that
second tier of contention. But what Jimmy did not do
is demonstrate reliable scoring. He was basically just as likely
to fail to score fifteen points as he was to
score twenty five points as a member of the Warriors
to end last season. Again, I still view the trade
(04:47):
as a massive success because of all of the other
things that Jimmy Butler brings, including his playmaking on both
ends of the four as a defensive playmaker alongside Draymond
and is a guy that created advantages on the offensive end,
his connective passing playing on off of Steph. There are
a million things that Jimmy has done well that have
made the Warriors better, but there's still a hole on
(05:08):
this team in the form of that reliable perimeter scoring.
Another stat to drive this home. When they got reliable
perimeter scoring last year off of Steph, they won. When
Buddy Heelds scored over twenty points last year, they were undefeated.
When he scored at least eighteen points, they were sixteen
(05:29):
and two. And all those numbers include playoff games. By
the way, this is why I spent so much of
the year last year talking about a guy like Cam Johnson,
who obviously is a Denver nugget now, but there's a
reason why I was fixated on that type of player.
We saw that for years with Klay Thompson playing off
of Steph, and we've seen it at Spurts when different
guys like Buddy heeld or Bandon Pajemski year, whoever it
(05:50):
was who was playing off of Steph at that second
perimeter guard. When that guy went off, they were very
difficult to beat. That isn't to say that they can't
contend is currently constructed with Jimmy Butler. They certainly can,
but it's what separates them from that first tier to
take that leap from being a team that can win
the title. If everything's if everything goes right versus we
(06:14):
are one of the apex predators in the NBA and
they just haven't been able to address that yet. But
there are a couple of things that are hanging around
out there that could potentially turn things around for them.
First of all, this mark Stein report. Mark Stein reports
that he believes Horford will sign with the Golden State Warriors.
I continue to hear. This is the exact quote from
(06:36):
his substack. And by the way, if you're an NBA fan,
I highly recommend mark Stein's substack. He just does such
great work with like quick concise reads on the goings
on around the NBA. It's a great way to stay
in the loop on that front. But the specific quote
for mark Stein's substack was quote, I continue to hear
that Horford is destined to land in the Bay Area.
(06:57):
That's pretty strong wording there from respectable reporter and mark Stein.
So I think Orford would be a great get for
Golden State. Golden State has been wanting a stretch five
that can defend for a while a couple reasons. They
want to play Draymond at the four more in the
regular season to save wear and tear on his body,
and they want to have a too big look for
(07:18):
certain playoff matchups. And the problem that they've had with
centers that they've tried over the years is either they
can't shoot, which causes problems for them in the form
of the top block and funnel scheme that everyone's been
running against them. Basically, if you have Draymond out there
with another non shooting big, the opponent's just going to
put their two best like vertical vertical rim protecting threats
(07:40):
in the paint. They're going to try to top lock
all the perimeterive players. That forces them to back cut
into all that size and it can cause issues for
them in the half court offensively. So when they've had
centers that can't shoot, that has caused it, whether it's
you know, Trace Jackson Davis or it's Kevon Looney, whoever
it's been over the years that has resulted in their
offense stalling out in the half court. Or they can
(08:03):
shoot guys like Quinton Post, but that don't bring the
level of defensive versatility and upside that they need from
that position group. Horford is a natural on those two fronts.
Even in old age, she's still a pretty useful switch defender.
He's good at just like kind of changing his pickup
point based on where he trusts his length to contest
(08:24):
a pull up shot or how much he views the
pull up shot as a threat. He's very good at
anticipating which direction a guy's gonna go and taking a
good angle to cut him off and beat him to
his spot. He's a particularly very high IQ defender, which
is something I'm very excited about because I would argue
that's half of the genius when it comes to Draymond
and Jimmy in the work they do defensively is just
(08:46):
the way they communicate, the way that they can kind
of like anticipate what's going to happen in terms of
what the offense is running and the types of looks
they're trying to get out of that action. They're just
kind of like a step ahead because of their defensive IQ,
and they can blow plays up that way. I'm legitimately
excited to watch Al Horford if Al Horford ends up
(09:06):
signing with Golden State, to watch some units with Jimmy,
Draymond and Al out there together just being this big, switchable,
super smart defensive front line and then Horford also brings
the ability to reliably shoot the ball from above the break,
and that unlocks all sorts of spacing upsides. Again, there's
(09:28):
a huge difference between above the break spacing and corner
spacing when it comes to biggs. The corner is the
shorter close out and it leaves the big man in
a more traditional help side position right underneath the basket.
So if you beat your man off the dribble, you're
running into a center. But if you have a center
that can space the floor out above the break and
(09:51):
you can put smaller players in the dunker spot smaller
players cutting smaller players in the corner, that puts those
smaller defenders at the rim. It inverts defensive spacing and
puts rim protectors out on the perimeter to deal with Horford.
Whatever bigger player you're putting there, you can stash them
further away from the basket. That is the upside of
(10:12):
having a shooting five in that lineup. It allows for
some more conducive spacing to score the ball. So to
put it simply, Horford would give the Warriors the look
they haven't had, a two big look, a reliable too
big look for a postseason setting, and it would make
them a deeper, better, more versatile basketball team throughout the
(10:33):
regular season. Now that perimeter scoring role would be harder
to come by, they basically look they have to look
to facilitate that type of move via a Jonathan Kaminga
sign in trade. If you look at their payroll right now,
you've got these big contracts at the top and Draymond,
Jimmy and Steph none of which you're willing to trade,
and then there's this Moses Moody contract in there that's
(10:55):
a kind of middling salary that at this point Moses
Moody is is a very important player for you. Is
your starting point of attack defender at this point in time,
and so you don't want to send him out unless
you're getting somebody back who can start in his position group.
And frankly, his salary is not big enough to be
able to pull back that type of player right now.
But Jonathan Kaminga could potentially be that vehicle. It could
(11:17):
be the vehicle through a sign and trade that gets
you back some of the salaries that you need to
potentially move for that type of perimeter score. And the
Warriors are actually sitting pretty in terms of their draft
compensation that they have available to them. If I'm not mistaken,
I believe they have all of their first round picks
available except for the twenty thirty first round pick, so
they can get some tradable salaries. They're positioned well for
(11:40):
something that could be there down the line. But before
we get to that, I do want to take a
minute to just look at the absurdity of this particular
situation with Jonathan Kaminga. It's hard to find options for
Jonathan Kaminga side and trade. Kaminga has not shown the
ability to do anything reliably well at the NBA level.
(12:04):
He can score the ball, but he's an iffy decision
maker and he's super inconsistent as a shot maker. Off
the ball, He's a poor three point shooter and a
poor closeout attacker. That puts him at slightly below average
as a spot up player this year. He's an OK rebounder,
but not exceptionally so considering his tools on defense, he
(12:28):
has some utility on the ball, but he's not an
elite on ball defender, and he's pretty bad off the
ball in terms of his attentiveness. The tools are there,
but none of it has come to fruition in a
real and consistent way. This has been the great miscalculation
of Golden State's management of the end of Steph's career.
The Warriors should have traded john Andan Kaminga in the
(12:51):
summer right after the twenty twenty three season when they
were eliminated by the Lakers. At that point, we had
two years of evidence. Jonathan Minga absolutely had some potential,
but was not a franchise altering, foundational future, top tier
(13:11):
superstar type of talent. He clearly had fringe All Star
potential and I still believe he does. Like if you
told me Jonathan Minga made one or two All Star
teams in his career, I would not be surprised. But
it seemed like fringe All Star was a ceiling and
it seemed to be at least five years away where
(13:35):
he would need to go refine his skills over years
and years and again, he was very clearly not the
untouchable franchise foundation that would guide the Golden State Warriors
into a new era. And most importantly and most damagingly,
(13:55):
his attitude and his skill set did not match with
what the Warriors were trying to do in the short term.
At that point in twenty twenty three, Jonathan Kaminga had
two years left on his rookie deal. He was a
very positive asset. You didn't have to do much to
(14:15):
match his salary. You could make a move for him
and evaluate him in your system for two years before
signing him to a rookie extension. The Warriors could have
legitimately moved him for a guy like a Pascal Siakam
or an og Ananobe, guys were that immediately vaulted their
(14:37):
respective new teams into deep playoff runs. But they did it.
Joe Lacab was unwilling to admit that Kaminga was not
that franchise altering star, so he clung to him in
hopes of his development painting out. And now here we are.
Jonathan Kminga is a very different asset. Now he's doing
(14:59):
new d He wants a lot of money, and so
now a team has to be willing to pay him
a large salary without actually knowing what he would look
like in their system. That makes him very high risk
relative to twenty twenty three. If you make a move
for him in twenty twenty three as a team, you
(15:20):
get to see what he looks like for two years
and then make that sort of decision at that point
in time. Any team that makes a sign and trade
for Kamina now is going to take on a good
amount of risk in the form of a large salary
and a theoretical basketball player. So now he's suddenly a
substantially lower value asset and the Warriors need to turn
(15:42):
him into something valuable, and that's going to be difficult
to do. And to make matters worse, it's just a
brutal offseason market for restricted free agents. I would argue
Quinton Grimes has more utility in the short term for
an NBA team than Jonathan Kaminga because he's such a
good shooter and he's actually a pretty good point of
(16:03):
attack defender in that role. Camino will be a better
player than Quentin Grimes in the long run, but in
the short term, Quentin's better, more useful, and he hasn't
been able to find a deal yet, and so now
the Warriors are in a holding pattern, just waiting for
something to materialize, and it feels like their best bet
now is just to get some middle range salaries back
(16:26):
that they might be able to package with some draft
compensation for that wing score archetype that we talked about
earlier on that front. Let's pretend that the Warriors pull
that off, they end up getting some middling salaries back. Obviously,
there are some pipe dream targets out there, Jannis and Tenakumpo,
for example, Lebron James potentially Devin Booker is another guy
(16:49):
that could potentially come onto the market within the next
year or two. But those guys are pipe dreams, and
it just it just I think it's a waste of
time to plan your future around that sort thing. You
want to be positioned for it, but it's not something
you can be planning your entire future around, especially when
you look at the realities of Steph and how old
he is and the very very short window you have
(17:12):
to operate there. So, what are some other guys, some
other guys around the league that could potentially come available
over the course of the year that can score the
basketball effectively and efficiently and consistently in Golden State system.
And so I put together just a short list out
of Boston guys like Derek White or Anthony Simons. Those
(17:35):
are guys that potentially come available over the course of
the year that I think both of them would be
fantastic in Golden State's system. Offensively, Tyler Harrow if the
Miami Heat fall apart, Tyler Harrow, if he's your lead
perimeter shot creator, gonna be a problem. If he's playing
off of Steph. I bet you he's very, very impactful
if things go south with the Miami Heat. Norman Powell
(17:56):
is a guy that you could potentially look at. There's
also some potential there for a sign and trade, considering
Miami could be interested in a guy like Jonathan kaminga,
Trey Murphy out of New Orleans, CJ. McCollum, or Chris
Middleton out of Washington. Those are obviously discounted options. Those
are veteran older options, But I think both Chris Middleton
or CJ. McCollum would be good basketball players in Golden
(18:16):
State system. A Manual Quickly out of Toronto as a
guy to keep an eye on. These are all guys
that I think would kick ass alongside Steph in Golden
State system. But in order to pull that off, you've
got to get some easily tradable salaries back from that
comming assigned and trade to pull something like that off.
All right, let's move on to the Bradley Beal saga.
(18:39):
So all the reporting is that Bradley bial is potentially
going to reach a buyout with the Phoenix Suns as
soon as today, so obviously we'll keep an eye on
that over the next couple of days. It's been reported
that he's canvassing the league looking for potential options. So
what kind of team makes sense for Bradley Beal to join.
I thought most of the issue for Bradley and Phoenix
had to do with redundancy. His strengths lined up with
(19:02):
the things the Suns were already great at, and his
weaknesses lined up with the things Phoenix actually needed him
to be good at. If you take a look at
the numbers, they weren't bad. Availability was an issue. He
only played fifty three games in each season, but his
production was there. Eighteen points per game is a third option.
That's fine. Fifty one percent from the field, forty one
(19:24):
percent from three to eighty one percent from the line
over the two years. That's sixty percent true shooting. He
was very efficient. He shot forty three percent on unguarded
catch and shoot jumpers. He was a knockdown catch and
shoot guy. He shot forty three percent on pull up
jump shots, so he had the ability to hit shots
off the bounce. He was efficient at the rim sixty
six percent overall according to Synergy, sixty four percent on layups.
(19:46):
The volume wasn't there, but a lot of that had
to do with usage as well, but it was still fine,
and he was efficient when he got there. His shot
creation was fine. He was a sixty second percentile pick
and roll creator according to Synergy. A seventy second percentile isocreate.
According to Synergy, he was up over a point per
possession one point zero one points per possession in ISO,
including passes. That's a really solid number. And yet in
(20:09):
both years the Sons were actually a better team when
he was off the floor versus when he was on.
They were one point four points better per one hundred
possessions when he was off the first year, seven point
one points per one hundred possessions better without him last year.
Why is that? Because Bradley Beal over the years in
(20:30):
Washington had built out the habits that many lead guards
in NBA history have built out. He was a capable defender.
You make some plays, but he wasn't used to the
incredible possession possession attention to detail that you need from
a role player guard whose job it is to do
those things. When I would watch Phoenix tape, Bradley Beal
(20:52):
was often the culprit in their defensive issues. He'd ball
watch and get back cut, or he'd lose a shooter
off the ball, or he'd give up an offensive rebound,
or he'd a rotation. He'd have good reps on the
ball because he's such a good athlete, but it wasn't
consistent their possession of possession, and on a team that
couldn't rebound and couldn't protect the rim, that was a problem.
(21:13):
There wasn't the requisite athleticism behind him to clean up
those mistakes. Now, it's typical for a basketball team to
have on the team on the floor some guys that
aren't necessarily great with dirty work. That's somewhat normal, But
usually the other three guys or four guys or two
(21:34):
guys wherever many it is on the floor, usually those
guys are professional dirty work players. And Bradley Beal just
added another guy who could handle a lot of offensive responsibility,
except he wasn't getting the ball all that much, and
it just meant one less guy on the floor. Who
specializes in dirty work, and then Phoenix exacerbated the issue
(21:55):
by bringing Tias Jones into the mix, and it was
just too much for those guys to overcome Tias Jones,
Bradley Veal, Kevin Duran, and Devin Booker. That foursome literally
had a negative net rating last year for the Phoenix Suns.
For Phoenix, this is actually a big part of why
I could see them being a more feisty, tougher regular
(22:16):
season team to play against. They'll now feel a team
with some professional dirty work guys like Dylan Brooks, like
Ryan Dunn, with a substantially better center rotation. Now, Devin
Booker and Jalen Green don't represent the best core of
shot creators in the world, but that team should be
more balanced. That doesn't mean they're going to go win
a playoff series or anything, but on the nights when
Jalen Green plays well, the Sons are going to be
(22:39):
a pain in the ass to be because of that
balance finally being restored. So, with Bradley Beal soon to
be a free agent, what kind of team makes sense
for him? So this would be a team that doesn't
need him to be a primary point of attack. Defender
that has the rim protection and rebounding to make up
(23:01):
for some of his off ball lapses, and that could
actually make use of his high volume ball handling. There
are actually a few teams that make sense here, but
we got to start with the obvious one. We git
a trade this morning. The Jazz, the Clippers, and the
Heat engaged in a three team deal sends Norman Powell
to Miami. They've been in desperate need of some reliable
(23:21):
scoring punch off of Tyler Harrow. Norman is a really
nice option for them there, Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson
in a second round pick to the Utah Jazz, and
then John Collins to the Clippers. And suddenly, with Norman
Powell's exit, a gaping hole in that scoring guard spot
next to James Harden. So now the Clippers suddenly make
(23:42):
a ton of sense as a Bradley Beal team. They
have plenty of interior size and rebounding and rim protection
that can cover for some of Bradley Beal's off ball mistakes.
They're suddenly like very deep. They have an excellent power
forward center rotation. Now, even in bench groups that Bradley
Beal's playing with bench gros Brook. Lopez can help in
that specific way, and now they're really light on ball handling.
(24:07):
You have Kawhi Leonard, who played thirty seven games last year.
In James Harden. Bradley Beal is almost the perfect type
of player for this situation because when Kawhi is out
of the lineup, which is obviously going to be at
minimum for twenty probably thirty or thirty five games this year,
Beal can scale up his usage and basically play as
(24:27):
the secondary ball handler off of James Harden, and then
when Kawhi is healthy, the Clippers can benefit from all
of the offensive stuff we talked about earlier. Again, offense
wasn't the issue with brad in Phoenix. I read you
guys the number. He was a fifty to forty eighty guy.
He was efficient driving closeouts and spot up situations. When
(24:48):
he put the ball on the floor to run action,
he was fine. Offense wasn't the issue in Phoenix. He
will be able to help the Clippers in that way,
but at the same time they have the size and
the rebounding and the rim protect to cover for him.
And when Kawhi Leonard steps out of the lineup, he
can step into that featured role on the ball and
do an admirable job of that. In other words, they
(25:11):
could benefit from Bradley Beal's strengths and they can withstand
his weaknesses, So I think the Clippers make a ton
of sense. They don't need him to guard the other
team's best player. Chris Dunn and Derek Jones Junior can
do that, and frankly, given Kawhi's injury history, it doesn't
make any sense for the Clippers to move Norman Powell
(25:33):
unless they know Bradley Beal is coming. So I'm guessing
this ends up happening sooner than later, but again it's
not confirmed yet. Other teams that have been brought up
that I've heard talk about Miami, but obviously that doesn't
make a ton of sense now that they have Norman Powell.
We're looking at big, physical teams that need ball handling.
Orlando makes some sense, Houston makes some sense, like Bradley
(25:56):
Beal next to Katie and Houston makes some sense in
a way that didn't back in Phoenix. Boston could use
some shot creation. They don't have the means with which
to make up for Bradley Beal's weaknesses, but they don't
really have championship goals at this point of more would
just be bringing him into the system and seeing how
the fit works. Milwaukee. This is another one that I've
(26:16):
been thinking about a lot this morning. If you a
tough sell for Beal, I don't think they can offer
him as much money, but this is a team in
Milwaukee that desperately needs his ball handling. Like he could
literally step in the front door and be in the
Damian Lillard role. He could walk right in as the
lead shot creator off of Giannis and Brad's in a
(26:38):
similar situation to what we talked about with DeAndre Ayton,
where you know, he's a guy puts up big numbers
and has kind of some some splash surrounding his name,
but there's obvious impact metrics that kind of undercut his
value over the last couple of years, which again I
think a good amount of that has to do with fit,
But the reality is those numbers exist and so be
(27:01):
kind of a distressed asset at this point going into
a place in Milwaukee where you'd have a very good
chance to make a conference finals run at minimum, if
not a finals run, to play alongside one of the
best players in the league in a featured Day one.
I'm leading this team from the perimeter type of role
(27:21):
like that makes a lot of sense to me. In Milwaukee.
I haven't heard buzz there, but that I would argue
if I was Bradley Beal, I'd rather go play in
Milwaukee than play in Los Angeles with the Clippers substantially
tougher conference. Like Bradley Beal goes to the Clippers, there's
still a just as likely chance as not that they
(27:42):
get eliminated in the first round. Again, you look at
the top of the West, if it ends up being
a Oklahoma city, in a Houston, in a Denver, if
you fall to six, seven or eight, you're gonna be
an underdog in the first round. So, like I look at, Milwaukee,
is a really, really seamless option for brad I don't
(28:04):
know if he'll seriously consider it. Again, I just don't
think you'll make the Norman Powell deal if you're the
Clippers unless you feel like Bradley's coming. So I would
be shocked if he doesn't end up with the Clippers
at this point. But Milwaukee makes a lot of sense
for me as well. All Right, guys, that's all we
have for today is always been. Sincerely appreciate you guys
for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back tomorrow.
(28:25):
We're gonna do a mail bag as well as a
We're gonna cover my top five biggest takeaways from last
year's season, which we do every year. So we'll see
you guys tomorrow, and then obviously we have a fun
weekend playing for Summer League. We'll see you guys then.
What so, guys, As always, I appreciate you for listening
to and supporting Oops tonight. They would actually be really
helpful for us if you guys would take a second
(28:45):
and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
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Slash audio. All right, welcome to hoops tonight. You're at
(01:53):
the volume heavy Monday. If your buddy Hope, all the
guys had an incredible weekend. Got a jam pack show
for you guys today. We're getting a couple of big
storyline from around the NBA. I want to start with
the Golden State Warriors. We haven't actually talked about them
yet this offseason because they've had a very uneventful offseason
to this point, but there are a couple of things
that are hanging over them. A potential center signing that
(02:14):
we will discuss, as well as the Jonathan Minga situation.
Just how we got here, some of my frustrations just
from afar watching this whole situation and what could potentially
come good from that situation. So some Warriors talk off
the top after that. We've had extensive reporting from around
the league that Bradley Beal might reach a buy out
with the Phoenix Suns today, So I want to talk
(02:35):
about what Bradley Beal's season looked like, two seasons looked
like in Phoenix, some of the realities about his game,
how it didn't work there, and what types of teams
make sense for him to go to moving forward, including
a trade that took place this morning that I think
opens the door for an obvious Bradley Beal destination. So
lots of stuff to get into today. You guys are
(02:56):
the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops
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Follow me on Twitter and underscore JCONLTC. You guys, don't
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great work. In the last but not least, keep dropping
(03:17):
mail bag questions. We're doing our mail bags out of
the YouTube comments now that we're out of our live shows.
So all you gotta do is in the YouTube comments,
put mail bag with a colon, write your question, and
once a week throughout the offseason, we'll be hitting your
guys's mail bag questions from those comments. All right, let's
talk some basketball. So this is the extent of the
(03:38):
Golden State Warriors offseason so far. They got into Kevin
Durant trade as one of the seven teams and acquired
the draft rights to a couple of late second round guys.
They lost Kevin Looney, who signed a deal with the
New Orleans Pelicans, and they're letting Gary Payton a second go,
although he hasn't signed elsewhere yet. But that's it. So
not an ideal summer yet for a Warriors team that
(04:01):
just loaded up with Jimmy Butler, it could really use
an upgrade in the form of a perimeter scoring threat.
I've been fixated it on this for a while, those
of you guys who have been listening to the show.
This is something I've been specifically shining a light on
over the course of the last few seasons, because even
though the Jimmy Butler trade addressed a myriad of issues,
and I still think it's a resounding success the Jimmy
(04:25):
Butler trade, and it definitely vaulted Golden State into that
second tier of contention. But what Jimmy did not do
is demonstrate reliable scoring. He was basically just as likely
to fail to score fifteen points as he was to
score twenty five points as a member of the Warriors
to end last season. Again, I still view the trade
(04:47):
as a massive success because of all of the other
things that Jimmy Butler brings, including his playmaking on both
ends of the four as a defensive playmaker alongside Draymond
and is a guy that created advantages on the offensive end,
his connective passing playing on off of Steph. There are
a million things that Jimmy has done well that have
made the Warriors better, but there's still a hole on
(05:08):
this team in the form of that reliable perimeter scoring.
Another stat to drive this home. When they got reliable
perimeter scoring last year off of Steph, they won. When
Buddy Heelds scored over twenty points last year, they were undefeated.
When he scored at least eighteen points, they were sixteen
(05:29):
and two. And all those numbers include playoff games. By
the way, this is why I spent so much of
the year last year talking about a guy like Cam Johnson,
who obviously is a Denver nugget now, but there's a
reason why I was fixated on that type of player.
We saw that for years with Klay Thompson playing off
of Steph, and we've seen it at Spurts when different
guys like Buddy heeld or Bandon Pajemski year, whoever it
(05:50):
was who was playing off of Steph at that second
perimeter guard. When that guy went off, they were very
difficult to beat. That isn't to say that they can't
contend is currently constructed with Jimmy Butler. They certainly can,
but it's what separates them from that first tier to
take that leap from being a team that can win
the title. If everything's if everything goes right versus we
(06:14):
are one of the apex predators in the NBA and
they just haven't been able to address that yet. But
there are a couple of things that are hanging around
out there that could potentially turn things around for them.
First of all, this mark Stein report. Mark Stein reports
that he believes Horford will sign with the Golden State Warriors.
I continue to hear. This is the exact quote from
(06:36):
his substack. And by the way, if you're an NBA fan,
I highly recommend mark Stein's substack. He just does such
great work with like quick concise reads on the goings
on around the NBA. It's a great way to stay
in the loop on that front. But the specific quote
for mark Stein's substack was quote, I continue to hear
that Horford is destined to land in the Bay Area.
(06:57):
That's pretty strong wording there from respectable reporter and mark Stein.
So I think Orford would be a great get for
Golden State. Golden State has been wanting a stretch five
that can defend for a while a couple reasons. They
want to play Draymond at the four more in the
regular season to save wear and tear on his body,
and they want to have a too big look for
(07:18):
certain playoff matchups. And the problem that they've had with
centers that they've tried over the years is either they
can't shoot, which causes problems for them in the form
of the top block and funnel scheme that everyone's been
running against them. Basically, if you have Draymond out there
with another non shooting big, the opponent's just going to
put their two best like vertical vertical rim protecting threats
(07:40):
in the paint. They're going to try to top lock
all the perimeterive players. That forces them to back cut
into all that size and it can cause issues for
them in the half court offensively. So when they've had
centers that can't shoot, that has caused it, whether it's
you know, Trace Jackson Davis or it's Kevon Looney, whoever
it's been over the years that has resulted in their
offense stalling out in the half court. Or they can
(08:03):
shoot guys like Quinton Post, but that don't bring the
level of defensive versatility and upside that they need from
that position group. Horford is a natural on those two fronts.
Even in old age, she's still a pretty useful switch defender.
He's good at just like kind of changing his pickup
point based on where he trusts his length to contest
(08:24):
a pull up shot or how much he views the
pull up shot as a threat. He's very good at
anticipating which direction a guy's gonna go and taking a
good angle to cut him off and beat him to
his spot. He's a particularly very high IQ defender, which
is something I'm very excited about because I would argue
that's half of the genius when it comes to Draymond
and Jimmy in the work they do defensively is just
(08:46):
the way they communicate, the way that they can kind
of like anticipate what's going to happen in terms of
what the offense is running and the types of looks
they're trying to get out of that action. They're just
kind of like a step ahead because of their defensive IQ,
and they can blow plays up that way. I'm legitimately
excited to watch Al Horford if Al Horford ends up
(09:06):
signing with Golden State, to watch some units with Jimmy,
Draymond and Al out there together just being this big, switchable,
super smart defensive front line and then Horford also brings
the ability to reliably shoot the ball from above the break,
and that unlocks all sorts of spacing upsides. Again, there's
(09:28):
a huge difference between above the break spacing and corner
spacing when it comes to biggs. The corner is the
shorter close out and it leaves the big man in
a more traditional help side position right underneath the basket.
So if you beat your man off the dribble, you're
running into a center. But if you have a center
that can space the floor out above the break and
(09:51):
you can put smaller players in the dunker spot smaller
players cutting smaller players in the corner, that puts those
smaller defenders at the rim. It inverts defensive spacing and
puts rim protectors out on the perimeter to deal with Horford.
Whatever bigger player you're putting there, you can stash them
further away from the basket. That is the upside of
(10:12):
having a shooting five in that lineup. It allows for
some more conducive spacing to score the ball. So to
put it simply, Horford would give the Warriors the look
they haven't had, a two big look, a reliable too
big look for a postseason setting, and it would make
them a deeper, better, more versatile basketball team throughout the
(10:33):
regular season. Now that perimeter scoring role would be harder
to come by, they basically look they have to look
to facilitate that type of move via a Jonathan Kaminga
sign in trade. If you look at their payroll right now,
you've got these big contracts at the top and Draymond,
Jimmy and Steph none of which you're willing to trade,
and then there's this Moses Moody contract in there that's
(10:55):
a kind of middling salary that at this point Moses
Moody is is a very important player for you. Is
your starting point of attack defender at this point in time,
and so you don't want to send him out unless
you're getting somebody back who can start in his position group.
And frankly, his salary is not big enough to be
able to pull back that type of player right now.
But Jonathan Kaminga could potentially be that vehicle. It could
(11:17):
be the vehicle through a sign and trade that gets
you back some of the salaries that you need to
potentially move for that type of perimeter score. And the
Warriors are actually sitting pretty in terms of their draft
compensation that they have available to them. If I'm not mistaken,
I believe they have all of their first round picks
available except for the twenty thirty first round pick, so
they can get some tradable salaries. They're positioned well for
(11:40):
something that could be there down the line. But before
we get to that, I do want to take a
minute to just look at the absurdity of this particular
situation with Jonathan Kaminga. It's hard to find options for
Jonathan Kaminga side and trade. Kaminga has not shown the
ability to do anything reliably well at the NBA level.
(12:04):
He can score the ball, but he's an iffy decision
maker and he's super inconsistent as a shot maker. Off
the ball, He's a poor three point shooter and a
poor closeout attacker. That puts him at slightly below average
as a spot up player this year. He's an OK rebounder,
but not exceptionally so considering his tools on defense, he
(12:28):
has some utility on the ball, but he's not an
elite on ball defender, and he's pretty bad off the
ball in terms of his attentiveness. The tools are there,
but none of it has come to fruition in a
real and consistent way. This has been the great miscalculation
of Golden State's management of the end of Steph's career.
The Warriors should have traded john Andan Kaminga in the
(12:51):
summer right after the twenty twenty three season when they
were eliminated by the Lakers. At that point, we had
two years of evidence. Jonathan Minga absolutely had some potential,
but was not a franchise altering, foundational future, top tier
(13:11):
superstar type of talent. He clearly had fringe All Star
potential and I still believe he does. Like if you
told me Jonathan Minga made one or two All Star
teams in his career, I would not be surprised. But
it seemed like fringe All Star was a ceiling and
it seemed to be at least five years away where
(13:35):
he would need to go refine his skills over years
and years and again, he was very clearly not the
untouchable franchise foundation that would guide the Golden State Warriors
into a new era. And most importantly and most damagingly,
(13:55):
his attitude and his skill set did not match with
what the Warriors were trying to do in the short term.
At that point in twenty twenty three, Jonathan Kaminga had
two years left on his rookie deal. He was a
very positive asset. You didn't have to do much to
(14:15):
match his salary. You could make a move for him
and evaluate him in your system for two years before
signing him to a rookie extension. The Warriors could have
legitimately moved him for a guy like a Pascal Siakam
or an og Ananobe, guys were that immediately vaulted their
(14:37):
respective new teams into deep playoff runs. But they did it.
Joe Lacab was unwilling to admit that Kaminga was not
that franchise altering star, so he clung to him in
hopes of his development painting out. And now here we are.
Jonathan Kminga is a very different asset. Now he's doing
(14:59):
new d He wants a lot of money, and so
now a team has to be willing to pay him
a large salary without actually knowing what he would look
like in their system. That makes him very high risk
relative to twenty twenty three. If you make a move
for him in twenty twenty three as a team, you
(15:20):
get to see what he looks like for two years
and then make that sort of decision at that point
in time. Any team that makes a sign and trade
for Kamina now is going to take on a good
amount of risk in the form of a large salary
and a theoretical basketball player. So now he's suddenly a
substantially lower value asset and the Warriors need to turn
(15:42):
him into something valuable, and that's going to be difficult
to do. And to make matters worse, it's just a
brutal offseason market for restricted free agents. I would argue
Quinton Grimes has more utility in the short term for
an NBA team than Jonathan Kaminga because he's such a
good shooter and he's actually a pretty good point of
(16:03):
attack defender in that role. Camino will be a better
player than Quentin Grimes in the long run, but in
the short term, Quentin's better, more useful, and he hasn't
been able to find a deal yet, and so now
the Warriors are in a holding pattern, just waiting for
something to materialize, and it feels like their best bet
now is just to get some middle range salaries back
(16:26):
that they might be able to package with some draft
compensation for that wing score archetype that we talked about
earlier on that front. Let's pretend that the Warriors pull
that off, they end up getting some middling salaries back. Obviously,
there are some pipe dream targets out there, Jannis and Tenakumpo,
for example, Lebron James potentially Devin Booker is another guy
(16:49):
that could potentially come onto the market within the next
year or two. But those guys are pipe dreams, and
it just it just I think it's a waste of
time to plan your future around that sort thing. You
want to be positioned for it, but it's not something
you can be planning your entire future around, especially when
you look at the realities of Steph and how old
he is and the very very short window you have
(17:12):
to operate there. So, what are some other guys, some
other guys around the league that could potentially come available
over the course of the year that can score the
basketball effectively and efficiently and consistently in Golden State system.
And so I put together just a short list out
of Boston guys like Derek White or Anthony Simons. Those
(17:35):
are guys that potentially come available over the course of
the year that I think both of them would be
fantastic in Golden State's system. Offensively, Tyler Harrow if the
Miami Heat fall apart, Tyler Harrow, if he's your lead
perimeter shot creator, gonna be a problem. If he's playing
off of Steph. I bet you he's very, very impactful
if things go south with the Miami Heat. Norman Powell
(17:56):
is a guy that you could potentially look at. There's
also some potential there for a sign and trade, considering
Miami could be interested in a guy like Jonathan kaminga,
Trey Murphy out of New Orleans, CJ. McCollum, or Chris
Middleton out of Washington. Those are obviously discounted options. Those
are veteran older options, But I think both Chris Middleton
or CJ. McCollum would be good basketball players in Golden
(18:16):
State system. A Manual Quickly out of Toronto as a
guy to keep an eye on. These are all guys
that I think would kick ass alongside Steph in Golden
State system. But in order to pull that off, you've
got to get some easily tradable salaries back from that
comming assigned and trade to pull something like that off.
All right, let's move on to the Bradley Beal saga.
(18:39):
So all the reporting is that Bradley bial is potentially
going to reach a buyout with the Phoenix Suns as
soon as today, so obviously we'll keep an eye on
that over the next couple of days. It's been reported
that he's canvassing the league looking for potential options. So
what kind of team makes sense for Bradley Beal to join.
I thought most of the issue for Bradley and Phoenix
had to do with redundancy. His strengths lined up with
(19:02):
the things the Suns were already great at, and his
weaknesses lined up with the things Phoenix actually needed him
to be good at. If you take a look at
the numbers, they weren't bad. Availability was an issue. He
only played fifty three games in each season, but his
production was there. Eighteen points per game is a third option.
That's fine. Fifty one percent from the field, forty one
(19:24):
percent from three to eighty one percent from the line
over the two years. That's sixty percent true shooting. He
was very efficient. He shot forty three percent on unguarded
catch and shoot jumpers. He was a knockdown catch and
shoot guy. He shot forty three percent on pull up
jump shots, so he had the ability to hit shots
off the bounce. He was efficient at the rim sixty
six percent overall according to Synergy, sixty four percent on layups.
(19:46):
The volume wasn't there, but a lot of that had
to do with usage as well, but it was still fine,
and he was efficient when he got there. His shot
creation was fine. He was a sixty second percentile pick
and roll creator according to Synergy. A seventy second percentile isocreate.
According to Synergy, he was up over a point per
possession one point zero one points per possession in ISO,
including passes. That's a really solid number. And yet in
(20:09):
both years the Sons were actually a better team when
he was off the floor versus when he was on.
They were one point four points better per one hundred
possessions when he was off the first year, seven point
one points per one hundred possessions better without him last year.
Why is that? Because Bradley Beal over the years in
(20:30):
Washington had built out the habits that many lead guards
in NBA history have built out. He was a capable defender.
You make some plays, but he wasn't used to the
incredible possession possession attention to detail that you need from
a role player guard whose job it is to do
those things. When I would watch Phoenix tape, Bradley Beal
(20:52):
was often the culprit in their defensive issues. He'd ball
watch and get back cut, or he'd lose a shooter
off the ball, or he'd give up an offensive rebound,
or he'd a rotation. He'd have good reps on the
ball because he's such a good athlete, but it wasn't
consistent their possession of possession, and on a team that
couldn't rebound and couldn't protect the rim, that was a problem.
(21:13):
There wasn't the requisite athleticism behind him to clean up
those mistakes. Now, it's typical for a basketball team to
have on the team on the floor some guys that
aren't necessarily great with dirty work. That's somewhat normal, But
usually the other three guys or four guys or two
(21:34):
guys wherever many it is on the floor, usually those
guys are professional dirty work players. And Bradley Beal just
added another guy who could handle a lot of offensive responsibility,
except he wasn't getting the ball all that much, and
it just meant one less guy on the floor. Who
specializes in dirty work, and then Phoenix exacerbated the issue
(21:55):
by bringing Tias Jones into the mix, and it was
just too much for those guys to overcome Tias Jones,
Bradley Veal, Kevin Duran, and Devin Booker. That foursome literally
had a negative net rating last year for the Phoenix Suns.
For Phoenix, this is actually a big part of why
I could see them being a more feisty, tougher regular
(22:16):
season team to play against. They'll now feel a team
with some professional dirty work guys like Dylan Brooks, like
Ryan Dunn, with a substantially better center rotation. Now, Devin
Booker and Jalen Green don't represent the best core of
shot creators in the world, but that team should be
more balanced. That doesn't mean they're going to go win
a playoff series or anything, but on the nights when
Jalen Green plays well, the Sons are going to be
(22:39):
a pain in the ass to be because of that
balance finally being restored. So, with Bradley Beal soon to
be a free agent, what kind of team makes sense
for him? So this would be a team that doesn't
need him to be a primary point of attack. Defender
that has the rim protection and rebounding to make up
(23:01):
for some of his off ball lapses, and that could
actually make use of his high volume ball handling. There
are actually a few teams that make sense here, but
we got to start with the obvious one. We git
a trade this morning. The Jazz, the Clippers, and the
Heat engaged in a three team deal sends Norman Powell
to Miami. They've been in desperate need of some reliable
(23:21):
scoring punch off of Tyler Harrow. Norman is a really
nice option for them there, Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson
in a second round pick to the Utah Jazz, and
then John Collins to the Clippers. And suddenly, with Norman
Powell's exit, a gaping hole in that scoring guard spot
next to James Harden. So now the Clippers suddenly make
(23:42):
a ton of sense as a Bradley Beal team. They
have plenty of interior size and rebounding and rim protection
that can cover for some of Bradley Beal's off ball mistakes.
They're suddenly like very deep. They have an excellent power
forward center rotation. Now, even in bench groups that Bradley
Beal's playing with bench gros Brook. Lopez can help in
that specific way, and now they're really light on ball handling.
(24:07):
You have Kawhi Leonard, who played thirty seven games last year.
In James Harden. Bradley Beal is almost the perfect type
of player for this situation because when Kawhi is out
of the lineup, which is obviously going to be at
minimum for twenty probably thirty or thirty five games this year,
Beal can scale up his usage and basically play as
(24:27):
the secondary ball handler off of James Harden, and then
when Kawhi is healthy, the Clippers can benefit from all
of the offensive stuff we talked about earlier. Again, offense
wasn't the issue with brad in Phoenix. I read you
guys the number. He was a fifty to forty eighty guy.
He was efficient driving closeouts and spot up situations. When
(24:48):
he put the ball on the floor to run action,
he was fine. Offense wasn't the issue in Phoenix. He
will be able to help the Clippers in that way,
but at the same time they have the size and
the rebounding and the rim protect to cover for him.
And when Kawhi Leonard steps out of the lineup, he
can step into that featured role on the ball and
do an admirable job of that. In other words, they
(25:11):
could benefit from Bradley Beal's strengths and they can withstand
his weaknesses, So I think the Clippers make a ton
of sense. They don't need him to guard the other
team's best player. Chris Dunn and Derek Jones Junior can
do that, and frankly, given Kawhi's injury history, it doesn't
make any sense for the Clippers to move Norman Powell
(25:33):
unless they know Bradley Beal is coming. So I'm guessing
this ends up happening sooner than later, but again it's
not confirmed yet. Other teams that have been brought up
that I've heard talk about Miami, but obviously that doesn't
make a ton of sense now that they have Norman Powell.
We're looking at big, physical teams that need ball handling.
Orlando makes some sense, Houston makes some sense, like Bradley
(25:56):
Beal next to Katie and Houston makes some sense in
a way that didn't back in Phoenix. Boston could use
some shot creation. They don't have the means with which
to make up for Bradley Beal's weaknesses, but they don't
really have championship goals at this point of more would
just be bringing him into the system and seeing how
the fit works. Milwaukee. This is another one that I've
(26:16):
been thinking about a lot this morning. If you a
tough sell for Beal, I don't think they can offer
him as much money, but this is a team in
Milwaukee that desperately needs his ball handling. Like he could
literally step in the front door and be in the
Damian Lillard role. He could walk right in as the
lead shot creator off of Giannis and Brad's in a
(26:38):
similar situation to what we talked about with DeAndre Ayton,
where you know, he's a guy puts up big numbers
and has kind of some some splash surrounding his name,
but there's obvious impact metrics that kind of undercut his
value over the last couple of years, which again I
think a good amount of that has to do with fit,
But the reality is those numbers exist and so be
(27:01):
kind of a distressed asset at this point going into
a place in Milwaukee where you'd have a very good
chance to make a conference finals run at minimum, if
not a finals run, to play alongside one of the
best players in the league in a featured Day one.
I'm leading this team from the perimeter type of role
(27:21):
like that makes a lot of sense to me. In Milwaukee.
I haven't heard buzz there, but that I would argue
if I was Bradley Beal, I'd rather go play in
Milwaukee than play in Los Angeles with the Clippers substantially
tougher conference. Like Bradley Beal goes to the Clippers, there's
still a just as likely chance as not that they
(27:42):
get eliminated in the first round. Again, you look at
the top of the West, if it ends up being
a Oklahoma city, in a Houston, in a Denver, if
you fall to six, seven or eight, you're gonna be
an underdog in the first round. So, like I look at, Milwaukee,
is a really, really seamless option for brad I don't
(28:04):
know if he'll seriously consider it. Again, I just don't
think you'll make the Norman Powell deal if you're the
Clippers unless you feel like Bradley's coming. So I would
be shocked if he doesn't end up with the Clippers
at this point. But Milwaukee makes a lot of sense
for me as well. All Right, guys, that's all we
have for today is always been. Sincerely appreciate you guys
for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back tomorrow.
(28:25):
We're gonna do a mail bag as well as a
We're gonna cover my top five biggest takeaways from last
year's season, which we do every year. So we'll see
you guys tomorrow, and then obviously we have a fun
weekend playing for Summer League. We'll see you guys then.
What so, guys, As always, I appreciate you for listening
to and supporting Oops tonight. They would actually be really
helpful for us if you guys would take a second
(28:45):
and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
a minute to do that, I really appreciate it. The
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The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.