August 13, 2025 • 44 mins
Once again the Buffalo Bills enter the season as heavy division favorites in the AFC East, with newly betrothed MVP Josh Allen still hunting for the franchise's maiden Super Bowl victory. Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down Buffalo and their division foes Miami, New England and the New York Jets on today's show. Can Tua stay healthy? Should the Jets get the "new coach bump" or not? And how big of an impact will Mike Vrabel have in Foxboro in Year 1? #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
and Podcast Network.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Lots of conversations to have about life and the NFL. Today,
let's welcome in my co host, my companion, Michael Padre,
my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Heato.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
So I'm in Chad. How are we doing?
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Dude?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
You and I could not be on more opposite ends
of the spectrum of life. What I thought about multiple
times this past weekend when you were sending us a
picture of your whole crew which did not need to
make much of an effort to look exactly like Fred
(00:54):
Durst from Limp Biscuit at your bachelor party this weekend,
while I was managing so much family stuff and the
end of having kids at home, please tell me, please
give me like the highlight of something fun.
Speaker 5 (01:12):
I mean, there was a lot of I mean, they're
just it was just stupid as shit. I mean from
the get gostupid. I literally get there and one of
the guys I'm staying with his car is getting about
to get towed like the literally the truck is backing
up the tote and I had to tell the guy, hey,
that's my car, because I saw the kid had Delaware
Rugby stickers on the back of it. So it was
a bunch of you Dell rugby kids ten years later
(01:33):
in Dewey Beach, so they.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Were all reliving their glory days and it.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
Was Chad's old the picture. It was like thirty guys,
all different walks of life, all real characters, but they're
all connected through one person.
Speaker 4 (01:46):
Obviously that's what a bachelor party is. So it was
like his childhood buddies, his college buddies.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
And yeah, my first time really doing Dewey Beach. The
bar scene's the best way I can describe. Again, I'm
old now, so like there's milts, which are people my age,
and then above and then like young twenty year old
who didn't know who Fred Durst was and was like,
why are thirty you all dressed so weird? All these
guys run up to one bar all over. But yeah,
(02:13):
I'd say the funniest memory was again I'm an old man.
I go to bed early, and I'm woking up probably
every half hour because people are coming back.
Speaker 4 (02:24):
So again I'm a light sleeper.
Speaker 5 (02:28):
At four four thirty in the morning, it sounds like
someone just got thrown through a wall in the apartment
above me. Like, so we run out the bottom and
the top part of the apartment and all you hear
is just ship breaking, like insanity. And again I went
checked the kitchen make sure no one through the floor,
because that's how loud it was. We wake up the
(02:48):
next morning. I looked like a bomb went off upstairs.
It was just three guys fighting. Yeah, just again, not
fighting like you think, like, just guys being guys.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Yeah, resumes pretending they're in a hockey fight.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
Yeah, and he's suplex the guy and the guy could
barely walk and it's like, you guys are all in
your thirties, what's going on? So uh yeah, what exactly
you would think it would go with the rugby guys
from U Dell at Dewey Beach ten years later.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
So yeah, it was a great time. It was a
great crew, really funny group.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Ah Like yeah, it sounds amazing.
Speaker 5 (03:17):
Yeah, No, it was like I can't keep up. I like,
even with them, I can't keep up. But you forget
about the old days, right, You just go to the beach.
You start drinking at eleven am, and you drink all day,
you eat all day, go out to bars.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
And restaurants all day, all night, and it's just like,
damn man, those were the good days. No worries. You're
just boozing and eating and it's warm and sunny out.
Speaker 5 (03:39):
So yeah, I enjoyed it. But like I said, the
whole time we just talked football. It's like it's just
on the tip of everyone's tongue. So I was like
enjoying it. In the back of mind the whole time,
I'm just like, can I watch this Browns game on
my phone in this bar right now and not be
judged because I just want to watch standards. So yeah,
it was fun going out with everyone, but also always
football chat football.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
By the way, the last time I really did what
you talked about, which is starting to eat and drink
at eleven am and just going all night was spring
break my senior year of college, when we are maybe
my junior year of college and my sophomore year of college,
when we went to Panama City, Florida, and there were
like fifteen of us.
Speaker 5 (04:19):
Your Girl's Gone Wild video. I have to now go
through my collections if I can see Chad.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
We like drove from Bloomington, Indiana to Panama City. We
started eating and drinking so early. I don't think I
was hungry or sober for six days. Yeah I gained
on that trip. You know what I look like?
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Yeah, I gained thirteen pounds.
Speaker 5 (04:42):
Because you probably didn't go to the bathroom once. That's
how funny your bals got.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
I had a picture of me from that trip, and
I'm like, my face looked like a basketball.
Speaker 5 (04:53):
I can't even picture of fat Chad. That's how I'll
go to shape you are. I came to visualized you
see it.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
That was the last time.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
Meanwhile, I am going through the throes of emotion that
come from the final days having a kid in the
house before he goes to college, our youngest kid of
the two, and we like have been doing stuff and
I'm realizing, holy shit, we're sixteen days away from this now.
(05:19):
Last week we went to the Red Sox game. He
had never been Fenway, and we at some point every
summer I did this with my other kid too, would
go somewhere just the two of us. And this is
the last one, you know, before he goes to college.
We're driving up to the game. I'm like in tears
four or five different times recognizing this, he never looks
(05:41):
up from his phone.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
It's fine.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
This weekend, I made him watch the Bear's preseason game
with me, even though like he was dying to get
out of the house and go to the gym. I'm like, guy,
first half, just sit with me. We're gonna do it
like I'm envisioning. So my texting him during the Bears
games now non.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Stop, like we were watching the Cubs a little bit.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
I'm like last night, I'm like, so, how am I
gonna do this when he's not sitting next to me.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
I don't even know how I'm gonna function.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
And you know how last week, like I told you,
my wife actually asked me about points spreads. This week
she came downstairs in an old school favorite T shirt
that has cartoon caricatures of you and I on the back.
And then I realized why she's doing it. She's not
(06:30):
doing it because like she knows I'll be miserable when
our son leaves the house. It's because she knows I'm
the only one left.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
It's me and the dog. And right now the dog
is on my side. I am totally the dog's person.
So like my wife is realizing, oh no, she's going
to be home alone with us. I better start showing
my husband I like him again after twenty two years
of having kids in the house. That's where it's coming from.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
Melbourn, hold on one of the biggest story that or
she's about to get another dog. You don't even know it.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
It's entirely possible.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
That is possible, by the way, all right.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
You mentioned football today as our annual Division by division
NFL preview episode on the AFC East, home of the
league's MVP Josh Allen, its most bettable coach and Mike Vrabel,
its most disgruntled wide receiver in Tyreek Hill, the franchise
(07:39):
with the whiniest fan base, the New York.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Jets, at the request.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Of longtime listener Mike Schiffman, at least, I think.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
I think that's how you say his name. I'm kidding.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
I'm adding which divisions the AFC East plays both in
its own conference and in the NFC. The AFC East
plays this year, the NFC South and the AFC North. Simon,
We're gonna start with the Buffalo Bills Division minus two,
seventy five Conference plus three twenty five Super Bowl plus
(08:18):
seven hundred win total eleven and a half. There is
no division that has a bigger disparity between the odds
on favorite and anyone else in the division. You said
this last week you love the Bills. I will say
I went through the schedule to find twelve wins. They
(08:39):
open with Baltimore, then they have the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Panthers.
So they obviously get the Jets, Miami and the Patriots
two times each, plus they have the Browns. I might
be inclined to wait until after six or seven weeks
(09:00):
and then see how their season win total is and
maybe try and bet it then before I dive in
right now.
Speaker 4 (09:14):
Are you a non believer, Chad? Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Well, I'm not a non believer, but.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
I think Josh Allen last year obviously had the best
year he's ever had, and I think there were some
factors that helped him along the way. Specifically, as much
as he was brilliant when he was running the ball
and they developed sort of a tush push strategy, his
(09:47):
receivers averaged more than a yard more after the catch
than at any point in his career.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
And I remember watching last year, how.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Many times did his guys get open and then get
yardage that they needed to make the game shift untilt
in their direction. That's as big a factor as anything.
So and I don't don't. I just don't know if
their defense is good enough yet, Like and so, last
year to me was as good as they could possibly be.
(10:21):
Can they be better? They can be one of the
two three best teams in the AFC, but is that
going to be good enough?
Speaker 2 (10:27):
That's why I'm not like all in yet.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
I'm shocked.
Speaker 5 (10:30):
Yeah, I would say, of all the teams that are safe,
bet this feels like the safest.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
That's why the odds are what they are.
Speaker 5 (10:38):
Professionals came in and hit this as soon as they
opened it, and it was really.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
Based off the guess of what the schedule would be.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
And then once the schedule came out, this number really
moved up because it kind of laid out perfect for them.
Speaker 4 (10:49):
They do have a very easy schedule. So that's why
I wouldn't wait.
Speaker 5 (10:52):
If I'm gonna bet this, Like, if I'm betting their
win total, I'll take it eleven and a half, No problem.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
Gives the shit.
Speaker 6 (10:58):
It's like pizza baby, It's good no matter, there's the
shout yeah, shouting out, it's a good time, you know
what I mean, rubbing up against each other, trying to
make it honest.
Speaker 4 (11:11):
I get it.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
Their divisional lodge is high. So we've talked about like
I put them in parlays. But I don't know if
you're getting lost a little bit, but we I definitely
got lost in it last year where I took josh
Allen's talent for granted. And I can't believe I even
thought the Jets or anyone else in the division had
a chance all this.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
I don't think anyone has a chance.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
I know that.
Speaker 5 (11:33):
I'm just saying, like overall this is this is lined
up for them this season. Like you said, there's questions
on the defense, of course, like that's that's going to
be their weakness because he doesn't play defense.
Speaker 4 (11:44):
The MVP is not on defense.
Speaker 5 (11:45):
They have holes on defense, and they're older in some places.
So I get the skepticism, but it's all josh Awen.
That's why you asked me if they could be cursed
from the hard knocks, and it's like the Bills there
they are the curse, like the losing four straight Super
Bowl as I told you. They just this fan base
can't be phased by the bullshit of hard knocks, and
(12:05):
Josh Allen, I joke to you he is doing an
absurd amount of therapy in the offseason because he's zero
and four against Mahomes in the playoffs and he knows.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
He is better than he is better than Mahomes. We
all know this.
Speaker 5 (12:16):
But again, I had him at three, you had him
at two. We all put Homes above him because he
wins when it matters, like cool, Josh Allen MVP last year,
Matt Mitchell didn't go to a parade in Buffalo. No
one did because there isn't one. They don't matter and
MVP is cool. And that was my whole point with
the whole QB rankings is we've gone too far with
the stats. And Josh Allen knows that where it's his stats,
(12:38):
he likes it. He likes win an MVPs.
Speaker 4 (12:40):
But he even watched the hard Knocks.
Speaker 5 (12:42):
I love how he is just so he knows the deal.
It's all bullshit, like he wants to see people slam
through tables in February, rotting down Buffalo's main street with
all the fans. So I'm with you that you can
have skepticism on this team further win total and you
can try to go against it, but I'm not going
to overthink it. I'll go over and I would be
(13:02):
shocked if turn out the one or two. See the
way their schedule lines up in their division, like we're
about the dive of their division here.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
The only way it.
Speaker 5 (13:10):
Doesn't work out is if he gets hurt, Like if
he's healthy, at best, he's losing one home game. Josh
Allen just does not lose home games, like he is
just a different beast at home and even on the road.
We saw last year that was his biggest step up
as he's not doing those super turnovers like him and
Joe Brady. It's another year together. So yeah, this is
a team you can tell like I am on. I'm
(13:30):
all in on them, like them the Chiefs. They are
the only teams I've taken positions.
Speaker 4 (13:34):
On in the AFC for Super Bowl.
Speaker 5 (13:36):
And Josh Allen's so good that he makes me break
a rule, which I know it's a dumb rule, but
I usually don't put a high amount of money to
teams organizations that never won Super Bowls before. NFL is
really weird where teams that have won before in the
past or whatever, they tend to repeat teams have never
won before. I don't know why, they just they don't win.
Like we've seen it time and time again. The same organizations.
(13:59):
I mean, you can just go back to the last
ten years and look at the repeats. It's it's the
same organizations are always in the super Bowl. But with
the talent level they have, Chad, the money they've spent
on their young talent, of their defense, I do think
with the coaching staff they have, and this is like,
this is a true attend to this division. So and
then the not just the division of the league. So yeah,
minus two seventy five, Chad News I've bet that straight up. Yeah,
(14:20):
if someone out there you're making one divisional bet and
you want to go safe, go for it, like you're
probably not gonna lose your money unless Josh Allen gets hurt.
But again, there's too much risk for me with that
with injuries that I'd rather parlays parlay this into something
than putting all this into one bet. So yeah, as
you can tell, Chad, I'm very high on this team,
and I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
The biggest Achilles heel when you drive.
Speaker 5 (14:39):
Through the numbers, and this this organization is their drafting
of their defense. Have these guys improved enough on the
talent they've lost in the back end these last couple
of years to be a great defense to match Josh
Allen And they have not. They've not shown up in
the playoffs when it matters, it's always on Josh Allen.
And you know last year, I like I said, I
don't want to make the excuse for him, but you know,
you expect, you put up thirty points on the road,
(15:01):
you're probably gonna win. And that he fell apart in
the defense, fall apart there that against the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
So that that's the question. Chat like you have it.
It's the defense.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
But also we talked about the young talent they're adding
to the defense. Everything I keep reading is about Matt
Mulano coming back and how he's a game changer for
this defense. They weren't that good when he was playing
last year and so.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
He was hurt.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Yeah, but he's been hurt NonStop.
Speaker 5 (15:32):
But when he comes to the field, like even the playoffs,
he made a couple of plays, You're like, that's why
he's so special, Like even in that Ravens game, he
had a couple of players where we're like, that's why
he is special. I get you're coming from he's older
and he gets hurt a lot, but that's just a name.
That's why they're telling you that because there are other
guys in their defense.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
That aren't hiusehold names. That's why they're not talking about it.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
But to me, again, I get where you're coming from
where it's like he's an older guy, but he's not
like they have other parts that are gonna be more important.
Speaker 4 (15:57):
But I agree, the question for me is just going
to be there.
Speaker 5 (16:00):
Like they they've been drafting secondary, they've been spending money
on the secondary.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
Can can they cover?
Speaker 5 (16:06):
Because I still can't believe Mahomes and that that Chiefs
offense put up whatever it was, thirty three thirty points
last year.
Speaker 4 (16:14):
In that playoff game.
Speaker 5 (16:15):
That was not I think that might have been the
first time all year they put over thirty points, right,
something crazy like that.
Speaker 4 (16:19):
So that's that's the acchilles of this team.
Speaker 5 (16:21):
And I think that's why I get your skepticism when
you talked about it a little bit, but I've been
blind to it all summer. I'm just like, man, this
is he's twenty nine, Josh Allen whatever, this is his
seventh or ade season. It's just all lined up, like,
is he really about to go zero for five against
Mahomes and the playoffs? I just I can't believe it,
Like when you dive into the stats, it doesn't make sense.
It's an anomaly. He's just so talented, he's so good,
(16:44):
but he just keeps fucking up in these fourth quarters,
or the defense fucks up for them in the fourth quarters.
And it's like, if you're a Betty Mant Chad, eventually
it's gonna go the other way.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
Brother.
Speaker 5 (16:53):
So that's why I'm hitting it. You know, super Bowls
plus seven hundred. You could do what Chad's doing, which
is like bad, and maybe see if you can get
a better number. But I do matchups, so like I've
already thrown a couple of matchups with them in the Rams,
them and the Eagles, and they're all they're all nice
and juice. I think they're all like fifty or forty
five to one.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
You know, I do the matchups.
Speaker 1 (17:12):
I've already I actually did the Bills and the Niners
at forty five to one like that. I think we
talked about this with the NFC West.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
I just feel like I'm.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Not seeing any value in anything Betting the Bills outright
eleven and a half. I guess you could take it,
but it just feels like last year was so elite
and so special it's ripe for some regression. It wasn't
just Josh Allen. It was sort of everything being perfect
on the offense. I watched the movie Sinners over the weekend.
(17:44):
I didn't even know Hailey Steinfeld was in it, and
she was awesome, and it just made me excited for
her and Josh Allen because you know, I love love.
Speaker 5 (17:56):
She's the ultimate catch, and you know, Josh like, that's
why I love about it though, Like he's hype dives,
he has an off field life, but even watching Hard Knocks,
he's just so committed to that team and that organization,
the fan base.
Speaker 4 (18:08):
It's like they just I can't get over how they
deserve it. The Bills deserve this, but you really.
Speaker 5 (18:15):
You got you got one of a comment with Josh Allen.
He is he is superman, sotty, pretty sweet.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
I just think it'd be great if next year Josh
Allen is coming off of super Bowl win and Hailey
Steinfeld is walking the red carpet with him at the Oscars.
I think it'll be amazing, all right, Matt Mitchell. I
feel like we need to get Matt Mitchell's take here
because he's so aligned with the Bills and defined by
the Bills.
Speaker 3 (18:40):
I appreciate you making me a part of this.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Will you offer any insight as a fan?
Speaker 3 (18:48):
I'll say this, I am consumed with the exact same
amount of dread for the exact same amount of reasons
as I have been. I think Simon nailed it perfectly.
I do think if you want to get involved in
betting Buffalo, I actually do think the Super Bowl matchup
angle is probably a really smart one because seventy one's
(19:12):
asinine because it always feels like it's a billion to
one that they'll win the super Bowl the last season
in the old stadium, and wanting to know if you're
a conspiracy theorist, the league turning its eye to Buffalo.
They'll want them to be successful and make money in
this unbelievably expensive, publicly funded stadium. So I think there's
(19:32):
some angles there, all right.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
No, it's good for the script. I agree with that. Yeah,
New England Patriots.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
This is what's interesting, huge trendy team getting a trend
alert here. Matt Mitchell cue the alarm trend alert.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
Ms of bursting at the moment from Melbourne.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
Everyone loves this team. You can see it in the numbers.
For example, their conference styles are thirty five to one.
There's Super Bowl odds are seventy five to one. Their
win total is seven and a half, same exact across
the board as the Miami Dolphins, but the Patriots division
odds five to one, the Dolphins division odds seven to one.
(20:17):
So we know where the money's going. We know what
people are excited about. And then this past weekend against
the Bills, like everyone are not against the Bills. Oh
my god, I just totally forgot who they. I think
they played the Commanders the Patriots. They're starting with their
(20:38):
new left tackle. That kid from LSU looked amazing. Those
little videos were all over the TikTok of him doubling guys,
of him pancaking guys.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
So hooray the Patriots are back.
Speaker 5 (20:58):
It's going to be a team that, like you just said,
the general public's gonna hype up, and you know, is
it deserving?
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Chad of the hype. You know, it's all.
Speaker 5 (21:06):
It's all debatable, but I think we both look at
this team and we see the pieces they have and
it all comes back to Rabel, right. I think we're
both one of those guys. We just we look at
coach and it's such an important cog and I think
most professional betters do. And that's why they've taken a
position here where it's like, Okay, they.
Speaker 4 (21:22):
Have the schedule you expect.
Speaker 5 (21:25):
When they have they've addressed the offensive line, it should
be so much improved that you know, if Diggs just
gets back to seventy five percent is what he was
before the knee injury, that's.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
A huge upgrade for them. The wires super position, this
is someone that can run.
Speaker 5 (21:39):
Routes like he is really really crisp, but at running routes,
that's what Digs has always been so talented at. So,
you know, Drake May you know people people have taken
positions on them. We've had people on the show that
you know, talked about him being one of the best
quarterbacks they thought coming out in that group, and I've
just I've never seen it. And even last year he
(22:01):
had moments of that.
Speaker 4 (22:01):
He popped.
Speaker 5 (22:02):
But it's like, you know, we all know he has
the talent that have throat beat deep throws downfield, or
he can run the ball, and that's that.
Speaker 4 (22:11):
Was never the question with him.
Speaker 5 (22:12):
The question with him was being consistent, and that was
the problem with him coming out and last year was
kind of a throwaway because you know, this year is
gonna have Rabel McDaniel's coaching them up.
Speaker 4 (22:21):
That's a huge, huge upgrade than what he had last year.
Speaker 5 (22:24):
I think people might be a year early on him
because of what they're projecting, because people are like, well,
they have an easy schedule. Every fan base, you talk
to any fan base outside of New England, you're you're
the easy team on their schedule in New England, Like
you're talking about everyone being you have an easy schedules here.
When people look at their schedule and break it down No.
Thirty one, other teams are saying, that's a win against you, guys.
(22:45):
I don't think anyone's giving a loss to the Patriots.
So they're they're an interesting team where it's like I
get what the bookmakers they're doing. They're taking a position
on them and their model is projecting out this is
a really talented team.
Speaker 4 (22:58):
I think it's a year early.
Speaker 5 (22:59):
Like my model literally has them right next to Miami basically.
And you just talked about the difference like seven to
one Miami to win this division.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
They're five to one.
Speaker 5 (23:08):
That's a big that's a big difference. So yeah, I
like this Patriots team a lot. I love the pieces there,
but it's like, oh, I don't what is what is
the ceiling? It's they put them at seven and a
half wins. Are you taking their under? I'm not taking
their under because there's so many variables. They could easily
go over this with Rabel and Drake May.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
Because it sucks to lose. It fucking sucks losing awful.
That's why I want to win.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
Dude, I did the math, all right, I did the
math because a I've asked this before, But give me
your opinion on the number of wins you think Mike
Vrabel can get for this team because of his coaching.
Remember Mike Rabel managing the clock, managing the game overall, strategically,
(23:59):
understand the rules. Doesn't have any peers in the NFL
right now. The only one was Belichick, and he was
out maneuvering Belichick the last few times they played against
each other, So I have an opinion on how many
games I think he can win for them.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
How many do you think? How many do you think
he can win for them?
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Yeah? I think last time I said two, and I
think you had at two and a half, right, Yeah,
something like that.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Yeah, I set the line at two and a half.
I think it can be as many as three. There's
a couple factors for me that make me like this
over and it's actually not the Drake May hype. I
think that the offensive line will be improved. I think
it's a generally better coach team. I'm discounting Stefan Diggs.
You just don't know. So their skill positions haven't really
(24:44):
improved very much. But I think their defensive line will
be better. They got Milton Williams, Christian Barmore will be back.
I like their defensive back Fiel of the Lot Christian
Gonzales continuing to improve as a physical, lockdown corner. They
have really good offensive backs. But like you just said,
it's the schedule.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
I count.
Speaker 1 (25:05):
I count six fifty to fifty games Raiders, Steelers.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
Panthers, Dolphins twice.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
I count six games that they should win Giants, Jets
two times, Browns, Titans, Saints.
Speaker 5 (25:26):
So but this is my point, they're honestly not that
much better than those teams. So that's gonna be the
thing you need. You're gonna need Drake Man to take
that step.
Speaker 4 (25:35):
Like of course, that's the margin.
Speaker 5 (25:36):
With football is that you need you need the quarterback
to show it and be consistent. Where we all know
he has talent, but talent doesn't mean shit in the NFL.
Everybody has talent, So can he be consistent with the
talent that he has is the biggest question. And yeah,
for me, I wanted to take the over coming into this.
I mean, we talked about them months ago where I
(25:57):
felt they were the best value bet.
Speaker 4 (25:59):
For this division.
Speaker 5 (26:00):
I still think that's true in some sense, even though
it's come down a little bit. It's like if Drake
make takes that next step and Josh Allen eventually takes
the wrong hit, like he's such a physical quarterback, you know,
nothing lasts forever. Yeah, this would be their front runner
to me. So then all of a sudden, me and
you have amazing odds I'm most likely their front runner
team just because the hype is so high, Like you
(26:20):
said with this new England team and.
Speaker 4 (26:21):
The schedule breaks that way. So I get it.
Speaker 5 (26:24):
I get why guys are taking a position on them.
I just I can't find it like right now, like
we already talked about it, Like I was confident on
the Bills over eleven and a half, This one I
wanted to be confident on like I had confident. Like again,
my model has an eight and a half. That's a
full game up, So I would bet this if you
want to take the over here. I'm just I'm so
nervous about Drake May. I haven't seen enough even in
(26:45):
this training camp. I haven't read enough of him being
consistent where it's like I want to see them, you know,
a week out before the season before I put any
money to this Patriots team. I really need more time,
more info from the be writers, just because right now
it's just too much happiness and excite me with the
Patriots up there, Like everything just seems like such flowers
and bullshit. Able Like had some comment to some guy
in they meet and everyone went ape shit. They're like,
(27:06):
this is what we needed, this is what we miss
and it's like, yeah, I get it. We all love Rabel,
but we need to see what his actual game plan
will be on the field. So uh yeah, good start
to it, right. They blew that, like you said, they
blew out the Commanders. Good defense, discipline, that's what that
organization needs. So the right start for the preseason. But yeah,
(27:27):
I need to see what's going on with Drake Main
these next you know, three weeks to really have a
confident bet on them.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Yeah, I lean over, but it is not even close
to my favorite bet in the division. Have we gone
anywhere near any of your favorite bets in the division
so far?
Speaker 2 (27:44):
I just want to make sure it wills.
Speaker 5 (27:46):
I love Like we just talked about the bill super
Bowl bets against Super Bowl matchups and they're over. I
love low and a half, Like, okay, I get them
at thirteen wins, and like, as a huge that's my
model as a human. I'm just like I'm the opposite
of you. I look at their schedule, I'm like, where
do they lose? Like they're just they are just so
much better than some man of these other teams because
(28:06):
the style they play with Joe Brady and the ball
control of that running style they have on offense.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
Now, so yeah, I told you, I'm drinking too much
of the kool aid.
Speaker 5 (28:14):
So I was happy to hear you skeptical because I
need a little bit of pull back. I've talked to
other pros who pulled back a little bit because of
that defense. But I'm also just like, man, it's it's
so hard to pull back Josh Allen at this this
age and this prime. It's just we saw it last year,
Like you said, that was his best season ever. He
just has gotten better every year, and it's like, what
is this. Are we about to see the next step
(28:35):
where he literally has one to two turnovers this upcoming season.
I mean, that's that's gonna be the game changer for him.
Is just if he cannot fumble or throw those stupid
picks in the red zone, which we saw last year,
he became MVP. So that's that's the question with them
and with this team here, it's all about Drake May.
Like I don't think neither.
Speaker 4 (28:52):
You were either high on him or low on him.
We're just no opinion. He didn't showing.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
Yeah, I have a controversial favorite bet that I didn't
really come to a conclusion on until I finished my
research for this division this weekend. But first, quick heads
up to anybody playing fantasy football this season. The ultimate
twenty twenty five draft kit is here courtesy of our
(29:19):
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Speaker 2 (29:21):
That means our award.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
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Speaker 2 (29:28):
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Speaker 1 (29:28):
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Speaker 1 (29:48):
Twenty for twenty dollars off at fantasylabs dot com slash flex.
All right, Miami, As I said, Division seven to one,
Conference thirty five to one, Super Bowl seventy five to
one win total seven and a half. I'm telling you, man,
(30:08):
if Tua is healthy, this is a competitive team, no
matter how bad their defense is. Every time you look
at the stats for the past few years when he
is playing a full season, I know we don't like
him as a quarterback. I know we would never put
him in a top ten, but he is a top
ten quarterback across every single metric. Superficial stats, Advanced metrics,
(30:33):
anything you look at because of who he is, because
of the system he plays in. He is just too
good in this offense.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
He is too accurate.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
The offense is too hard to stop on short slants
and quick throws in short yardage situation. So everyone is
down on them, which screams to me, give me the
over seven and a half.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
I get it, I get it.
Speaker 5 (31:01):
I know some people that have taken positions on this
because of what you've just talked about. This team is
different with two, and you know that's that's the question
here is can you stay healthy? And I don't think
he can chad the guys. He just doesn't know how to
take these hits. And even though you know he might
dodge the head injuries and it might be something else,
he just seems brittle.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
And you know that one year.
Speaker 5 (31:25):
I think we both get sucked into it because they
were so incredibly dominant that one year. And I hate
everything about this team. You probably are right, like maybe
I'm getting sucked into it, but like the two and noise,
like everyone's finally getting tired of the McDaniels.
Speaker 4 (31:39):
Bullshit, Like why are we all here? What is death?
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Is?
Speaker 4 (31:44):
This? Death is just are we in a black hole.
Speaker 5 (31:45):
It's like, dude, you're a fucking football coach man, Like,
if you're winning, it's funny when you're just one and
done every year and you may be back through into
the playoffs and you get your asses smoked by a
real contender. It's just it gets old pretty quick. And
that's my fear with them is up their windows legit closed.
And you know they might have, you know, one of
(32:08):
the best front sevens in defense, but the back end
is a fercious, horrible, horrible secondary and they've already had
a couple injuries in the preseason to that secondary. So
it's I'm one of those people. I'm with the general public.
I'm just so down on this team. But once again,
they're like the Patriots. I'm not touching the win tot
because of the quarterback, where if he is healthy like
(32:29):
you're talking about, they'll get the ten wins.
Speaker 4 (32:31):
Like Tua.
Speaker 5 (32:32):
He puts up the numbers, and they have a defense
that can steal them some games at certain spots.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
So again, I.
Speaker 5 (32:39):
Could see it happen, like I could see them being
better than the Patriots and obviously better than the Jets
because they have a legit quarterback that we've seen do
it and in all sences the system that you know
there is one of the best running styles in all football.
Like as much as I like to give that coach,
he knows how to scheme it up like they are great.
Speaker 4 (32:55):
I mean not in the red zone.
Speaker 5 (32:56):
I know, we all know they're like the thirty second
or thirty first team to come are running the red zone,
but everywhere else they're really talented. So you know, between
a chan Waddle and Tyreek, if Tyreek gets head of
as asked, that's that's a really great offense when it's
ran by Tuus. So I get why you love it.
Speaker 4 (33:13):
Chat.
Speaker 5 (33:13):
I'm not gonna not gonna show in your bet. I'm
just I'm stuck on it where it's like my model
is like you, it hasn't met nine wins, And usually
I would slam that like a game and a half.
I want to be all over that, but I'm just
so scared of Tua, like everything about him, Like I
know he's got the weakend and I feel like he's
got a brittle body. It's just it's not the right
mix to me for betting these win totals with a
(33:33):
quarterback like that.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
If he's healthy, they play the Jets twice, they play
the Browns, and they play the Saints. My supposition, my bet,
for lack of a better term, can they find four
other wins in thirteen games? So it's like you said,
(33:58):
the key the key component here is do you believe
to uh will.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Be healthy.
Speaker 4 (34:05):
And you cannot stay healthy.
Speaker 1 (34:07):
The key component for the Bills is do you believe
their defense can improve enough to help Josh Allen? When
it really matters. I tend to believe the Bills defense
cannot improve enough to help Josh Allen. You tend to
believe it can. I tend to believe to it can
be healthy. You tend to believe he can. And that
is the difference right now between our opinions on both
(34:31):
of these bets, in which we are basically fifty one
forty nine right and I'm leaning into a being healthy
because I don't think anyone wants to make this bet.
Speaker 5 (34:44):
People have the like I told you, like the the
public is totally out and the media is toy.
Speaker 4 (34:49):
But the wise guys, the wise guys are.
Speaker 5 (34:51):
Taking position on them because they're like you, they think
it's been an undervalued team.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
I'm a fucking wise guy.
Speaker 1 (34:57):
I don't even need to know what you're talking about
and what you're hearing to know that the Dolphins with
everyone hitting on them, and what two his stats have
been when he's healthy to know over seven and a
half is the right side.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
But told you the why guys are on all these
fucking teams like they like the Patriots too.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
That's why. Yeah, we're about to get to this.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
Guys don't know anything.
Speaker 4 (35:16):
This is the team was talking about the Jets.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
All right, let's talk about the Jets.
Speaker 1 (35:21):
Let's get to them as long as we can recognize
that I'm on the right side as the wise guys
with the Dolphins, Jets.
Speaker 4 (35:27):
Your gambler, who bets on the Jets? Who have you
not learned anything about.
Speaker 1 (35:31):
Betting the Jets are gonna come back fourteen to one,
the win to win the division conference, seventy five to one,
Super Bowl two hundred to one win total five and
a half. So it's true. It's really tricky, right because
there's not a lot of reason to be optimistic about
(35:53):
the Jets. And this is part bias and part thinking.
It's bias for me in terms of how I feel
about defensive stats when it comes to betting. I think
they're vitally important, and I oftentimes think that they are
(36:14):
undervalued in creating a point spread and in how bookmakers
look at them and how fans look at defensive stats,
especially things that the Jets have proven to be good.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
At when they had good coaching.
Speaker 1 (36:28):
They've got a dominant defensive tackle in Quinn Williams, they
have a potentially dominant corner in Saucegardner. There is always
sneaky upside from this defense. For me, it was a
very good defense when Robert Salo was coaching it, and
then it creatored I like what Aaron Glenn did with
the Lions when they had nobody because everybody was injured.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
So those are the positives to me.
Speaker 1 (36:54):
But I'm not going to make a bet on anything
regarding this team because their offense is just so bad.
Speaker 4 (37:00):
I'm I'm drinking the kool aid. I can't believe it.
And it was funny.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
I was, dude.
Speaker 5 (37:05):
I know, I've been trying to fight it off, but
I've been just buying so many shares all summer in
fantasy football of Justin Fields, and I needed to see
one minute of him in preseason running that touchdown to
be like, this is the vision. This is the vision
of the stupid ass team getting to eight wins, eight
and nine somehow with Aaron Glenn, because I do believe
(37:27):
in him as a coach man, Like that Detroit defense
was held the game held together with bubble gum and bullshit.
Speaker 4 (37:33):
I don't know how they function.
Speaker 5 (37:36):
That line's defense could not believe it. They were the
one seed, like he held it together. His coaching is
so good, like his schemes, his adjustments.
Speaker 4 (37:46):
Again, you were talking about it. Maybe there was some
dude in.
Speaker 5 (37:49):
The background that's giving him all this data. But Aaron
Glenn everything I'm reading.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
I love the.
Speaker 5 (37:54):
Way he talks to his team, how the guys talk
about him.
Speaker 4 (37:58):
You know, we'll see this.
Speaker 5 (38:00):
But it's like, five and a half wins in this
division feels very, very dangerously low, Like this is should
be six and a half, seven and a half for
a team that, in my mind is no different than
that Patriots team or this Miami team, where it's like
if Justin Field's with all this potential, Like again, this guy,
(38:21):
I know, Bear fans don't want to hear it because
he was a loser and he just could not win
any of these games. But he was like a top three,
top four running quarterback in the league. Like his level
of athletic talent, that was never the question. The question
was can he become a pocket passer? And I feel
like we have our answer there. He is not a
pocket passer. So if they go into it being honest
(38:44):
with him and he's being honest with himself, this team
has an obsane amount of upside because what you just
talked about, Chad, you have the D line, you have
half of the field locked down. If Sauce can because
to me, Sauce fall off the cliff last year and
I don't know if that was him being you know,
off the field distract he just didn't care because no
one else in the team cared. But if you if
he can be what he was his first year in
(39:05):
the league and be a shutdown corner, that's a huge
deal for this defense, Like that's that can change the
whole identity because Aaron Glenz never had that type of talent.
I mean, again, they had some of the best safeties
on football in Detroit, and but they didn't really have
great cornerbacks. Like they had so many injuries across the board,
so yeah, I just I can't even believe it was
five and a half, and I hate that.
Speaker 4 (39:24):
I loved it right away.
Speaker 5 (39:26):
And I knew my model was gonna love it because
of what you just talked about it. Like, I'm so school,
I'm so skewed to defenses and the way the league
has gone with these running quarterbacks, like they just having
a guy that can get you a first down with
his legs on third or fourth down. It's become the
cheek coot. I mean, we're seeing it in this preseason chat.
We keep talking about these kickoffs overs are fourteen to two.
(39:46):
I believe in this preseason it's changed. The game has changed.
Starting at your own thirty five, start your own forty
has changed the game. And that's why Justin Fields, if
he can be true with himself and realize he's not
a pocket quarterback, they need to keep keep him either
moving outside the pocket or you know, doing these Reid options.
That's gonna be the key to success for this Jets team.
(40:07):
So yeah, they're They're a team I love because it's
going to be you know, five and a half. You're
never out of this bet. If you have two wins
with six weeks to go, you can lie to yourself
and be like this Jets team they can sneak they
can sneak out a couple wins here end the season.
Get me over this five and a half. So I'm
shocked on another one. It's like they're just they everything
(40:29):
about them, new coach, the new coach bump. Everyone's given
it to the Patriots, but no one's giving it to
this Jets team at all. I think that's interesting where
it's like Aaron Glenn Man, he's he's not that different
than Raverle in some aspects of his motivator of men.
But I get where you're coming from because we've seen
Brabel do it. We've never seen Aaron Glenn do it.
Speaker 1 (40:47):
Well, that's exactly why, Hey, we haven't seen we haven't
seen Glenn do it as a head coach, like you
loved what I saw with the Lions, like you totally
lean into defense, usually leaning to defense, especially when I
think there's value in the win total. And I don't
think that's being accounted for. I think the bookmakers are
seeing the public and saying it's the Jets.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
It's Justin Field's on his third team. He's a wash out.
Speaker 1 (41:12):
He can't throw, and it's a whiny fan base and
everyone is thinking Aaron Rodgers is gone. This team can't
get out of its own way. They're gonna be losers, right.
So I totally think there's value on the five and
a half. I just didn't jump on it because Aaron
Glenn is a defensive coach. That's where I think he
(41:35):
will really put his stamp. I don't know what they're
gonna do offensively, and even if they do do well offensively,
Justin Fields as a running quarterback cannot finish a season.
You know, we talk about Tua, right, it's the same
thing with Justin Fields.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
Last year.
Speaker 1 (41:53):
Justin Fields was great with the Steelers, but he didn't
finish with the Steelers.
Speaker 4 (41:57):
And that was an injuries. That was Tomlin and I
promise he made a promise, Russell.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Wilson promise, but also a little bit of the Steelers
were winning.
Speaker 4 (42:08):
But despite Justin Fields.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
I know who you're coming from by Justin Fields.
Speaker 4 (42:12):
But yeah, he wasn't hurting them either though, like he
went five and two or something.
Speaker 1 (42:15):
We are we saying that the model for the Jets
now is what the Steelers did last year, only we
think it can extend over the course of a season.
Speaker 5 (42:24):
At least to me, Pittsburgh was saying to him, don't
don't let us lose because of you. So they were
really pulling it back where Aaron Glenn's like apparently being
like all blown smoke up his ass, being like, you're
one of the top guys.
Speaker 4 (42:36):
We're gonna release you. We're not going to try to
contain you.
Speaker 5 (42:39):
We want you to be one of these guys that's
you know, slinging it, running around with it. So again,
I think they're totally from the viewpoint of they'd be happy.
Speaker 4 (42:48):
The Jets.
Speaker 5 (42:48):
I think if they went you know, three and fourteen,
but if they can if they can unlock something here
and justin fields, the right the game of a two
year deal, I believe if they can get to eight
nine wins, that's that's something to built on go head
into next year. So that's that's my hesitation here where
it's like I totally get where you're coming from, just
in fields and injuries and everything like that. It's just
(43:09):
when a new coach comes in you have a defense.
I usually I drink the kool aid on those type of.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
Teams, all right.
Speaker 1 (43:17):
Simon's favorite division bet is the Buffalo Bills over eleven
and a half. Mine is Miami over seven and a half.
He also likes the Jets over five and a half.
I probably could be convinced to join him on that enthusiastically,
but we're not going to jump in on the New
(43:37):
England Patriots. The Favorites will return with our next episode
Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page when we talk
NFC East. Also go subscribe at Real Chad Noman. Get
loads of extra content there, download us with Spotify, Apple Pods.
Speaker 2 (43:51):
Wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe. He was
five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
Speaker 1 (43:57):
Until next time, Love you.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
and Podcast Network.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Lots of conversations to have about life and the NFL. Today,
let's welcome in my co host, my companion, Michael Padre,
my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Heato.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
So I'm in Chad. How are we doing?
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Dude?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
You and I could not be on more opposite ends
of the spectrum of life. What I thought about multiple
times this past weekend when you were sending us a
picture of your whole crew which did not need to
make much of an effort to look exactly like Fred
(00:54):
Durst from Limp Biscuit at your bachelor party this weekend,
while I was managing so much family stuff and the
end of having kids at home, please tell me, please
give me like the highlight of something fun.
Speaker 5 (01:12):
I mean, there was a lot of I mean, they're
just it was just stupid as shit. I mean from
the get gostupid. I literally get there and one of
the guys I'm staying with his car is getting about
to get towed like the literally the truck is backing
up the tote and I had to tell the guy, hey,
that's my car, because I saw the kid had Delaware
Rugby stickers on the back of it. So it was
a bunch of you Dell rugby kids ten years later
(01:33):
in Dewey Beach, so they.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Were all reliving their glory days and it.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
Was Chad's old the picture. It was like thirty guys,
all different walks of life, all real characters, but they're
all connected through one person.
Speaker 4 (01:46):
Obviously that's what a bachelor party is. So it was
like his childhood buddies, his college buddies.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
And yeah, my first time really doing Dewey Beach. The
bar scene's the best way I can describe. Again, I'm
old now, so like there's milts, which are people my age,
and then above and then like young twenty year old
who didn't know who Fred Durst was and was like,
why are thirty you all dressed so weird? All these
guys run up to one bar all over. But yeah,
(02:13):
I'd say the funniest memory was again I'm an old man.
I go to bed early, and I'm woking up probably
every half hour because people are coming back.
Speaker 4 (02:24):
So again I'm a light sleeper.
Speaker 5 (02:28):
At four four thirty in the morning, it sounds like
someone just got thrown through a wall in the apartment
above me. Like, so we run out the bottom and
the top part of the apartment and all you hear
is just ship breaking, like insanity. And again I went
checked the kitchen make sure no one through the floor,
because that's how loud it was. We wake up the
(02:48):
next morning. I looked like a bomb went off upstairs.
It was just three guys fighting. Yeah, just again, not
fighting like you think, like, just guys being guys.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Yeah, resumes pretending they're in a hockey fight.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
Yeah, and he's suplex the guy and the guy could
barely walk and it's like, you guys are all in
your thirties, what's going on? So uh yeah, what exactly
you would think it would go with the rugby guys
from U Dell at Dewey Beach ten years later.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
So yeah, it was a great time. It was a
great crew, really funny group.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Ah Like yeah, it sounds amazing.
Speaker 5 (03:17):
Yeah, No, it was like I can't keep up. I like,
even with them, I can't keep up. But you forget
about the old days, right, You just go to the beach.
You start drinking at eleven am, and you drink all day,
you eat all day, go out to bars.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
And restaurants all day, all night, and it's just like,
damn man, those were the good days. No worries. You're
just boozing and eating and it's warm and sunny out.
Speaker 5 (03:39):
So yeah, I enjoyed it. But like I said, the
whole time we just talked football. It's like it's just
on the tip of everyone's tongue. So I was like
enjoying it. In the back of mind the whole time,
I'm just like, can I watch this Browns game on
my phone in this bar right now and not be
judged because I just want to watch standards. So yeah,
it was fun going out with everyone, but also always
football chat football.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
By the way, the last time I really did what
you talked about, which is starting to eat and drink
at eleven am and just going all night was spring
break my senior year of college, when we are maybe
my junior year of college and my sophomore year of college,
when we went to Panama City, Florida, and there were
like fifteen of us.
Speaker 5 (04:19):
Your Girl's Gone Wild video. I have to now go
through my collections if I can see Chad.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
We like drove from Bloomington, Indiana to Panama City. We
started eating and drinking so early. I don't think I
was hungry or sober for six days. Yeah I gained
on that trip. You know what I look like?
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Yeah, I gained thirteen pounds.
Speaker 5 (04:42):
Because you probably didn't go to the bathroom once. That's
how funny your bals got.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
I had a picture of me from that trip, and
I'm like, my face looked like a basketball.
Speaker 5 (04:53):
I can't even picture of fat Chad. That's how I'll
go to shape you are. I came to visualized you
see it.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
That was the last time.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
Meanwhile, I am going through the throes of emotion that
come from the final days having a kid in the
house before he goes to college, our youngest kid of
the two, and we like have been doing stuff and
I'm realizing, holy shit, we're sixteen days away from this now.
(05:19):
Last week we went to the Red Sox game. He
had never been Fenway, and we at some point every
summer I did this with my other kid too, would
go somewhere just the two of us. And this is
the last one, you know, before he goes to college.
We're driving up to the game. I'm like in tears
four or five different times recognizing this, he never looks
(05:41):
up from his phone.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
It's fine.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
This weekend, I made him watch the Bear's preseason game
with me, even though like he was dying to get
out of the house and go to the gym. I'm like, guy,
first half, just sit with me. We're gonna do it
like I'm envisioning. So my texting him during the Bears
games now non.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Stop, like we were watching the Cubs a little bit.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
I'm like last night, I'm like, so, how am I
gonna do this when he's not sitting next to me.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
I don't even know how I'm gonna function.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
And you know how last week, like I told you,
my wife actually asked me about points spreads. This week
she came downstairs in an old school favorite T shirt
that has cartoon caricatures of you and I on the back.
And then I realized why she's doing it. She's not
(06:30):
doing it because like she knows I'll be miserable when
our son leaves the house. It's because she knows I'm
the only one left.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
It's me and the dog. And right now the dog
is on my side. I am totally the dog's person.
So like my wife is realizing, oh no, she's going
to be home alone with us. I better start showing
my husband I like him again after twenty two years
of having kids in the house. That's where it's coming from.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
Melbourn, hold on one of the biggest story that or
she's about to get another dog. You don't even know it.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
It's entirely possible.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
That is possible, by the way, all right.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
You mentioned football today as our annual Division by division
NFL preview episode on the AFC East, home of the
league's MVP Josh Allen, its most bettable coach and Mike Vrabel,
its most disgruntled wide receiver in Tyreek Hill, the franchise
(07:39):
with the whiniest fan base, the New York.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Jets, at the request.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Of longtime listener Mike Schiffman, at least, I think.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
I think that's how you say his name. I'm kidding.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
I'm adding which divisions the AFC East plays both in
its own conference and in the NFC. The AFC East
plays this year, the NFC South and the AFC North. Simon,
We're gonna start with the Buffalo Bills Division minus two,
seventy five Conference plus three twenty five Super Bowl plus
(08:18):
seven hundred win total eleven and a half. There is
no division that has a bigger disparity between the odds
on favorite and anyone else in the division. You said
this last week you love the Bills. I will say
I went through the schedule to find twelve wins. They
(08:39):
open with Baltimore, then they have the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Panthers.
So they obviously get the Jets, Miami and the Patriots
two times each, plus they have the Browns. I might
be inclined to wait until after six or seven weeks
(09:00):
and then see how their season win total is and
maybe try and bet it then before I dive in
right now.
Speaker 4 (09:14):
Are you a non believer, Chad? Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 2 (09:18):
Well, I'm not a non believer, but.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
I think Josh Allen last year obviously had the best
year he's ever had, and I think there were some
factors that helped him along the way. Specifically, as much
as he was brilliant when he was running the ball
and they developed sort of a tush push strategy, his
(09:47):
receivers averaged more than a yard more after the catch
than at any point in his career.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
And I remember watching last year, how.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Many times did his guys get open and then get
yardage that they needed to make the game shift untilt
in their direction. That's as big a factor as anything.
So and I don't don't. I just don't know if
their defense is good enough yet, Like and so, last
year to me was as good as they could possibly be.
(10:21):
Can they be better? They can be one of the
two three best teams in the AFC, but is that
going to be good enough?
Speaker 2 (10:27):
That's why I'm not like all in yet.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
I'm shocked.
Speaker 5 (10:30):
Yeah, I would say, of all the teams that are safe,
bet this feels like the safest.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
That's why the odds are what they are.
Speaker 5 (10:38):
Professionals came in and hit this as soon as they
opened it, and it was really.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
Based off the guess of what the schedule would be.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
And then once the schedule came out, this number really
moved up because it kind of laid out perfect for them.
Speaker 4 (10:49):
They do have a very easy schedule. So that's why
I wouldn't wait.
Speaker 5 (10:52):
If I'm gonna bet this, Like, if I'm betting their
win total, I'll take it eleven and a half, No problem.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
Gives the shit.
Speaker 6 (10:58):
It's like pizza baby, It's good no matter, there's the
shout yeah, shouting out, it's a good time, you know
what I mean, rubbing up against each other, trying to
make it honest.
Speaker 4 (11:11):
I get it.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
Their divisional lodge is high. So we've talked about like
I put them in parlays. But I don't know if
you're getting lost a little bit, but we I definitely
got lost in it last year where I took josh
Allen's talent for granted. And I can't believe I even
thought the Jets or anyone else in the division had
a chance all this.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
I don't think anyone has a chance.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
I know that.
Speaker 5 (11:33):
I'm just saying, like overall this is this is lined
up for them this season. Like you said, there's questions
on the defense, of course, like that's that's going to
be their weakness because he doesn't play defense.
Speaker 4 (11:44):
The MVP is not on defense.
Speaker 5 (11:45):
They have holes on defense, and they're older in some places.
So I get the skepticism, but it's all josh Awen.
That's why you asked me if they could be cursed
from the hard knocks, and it's like the Bills there
they are the curse, like the losing four straight Super
Bowl as I told you. They just this fan base
can't be phased by the bullshit of hard knocks, and
(12:05):
Josh Allen, I joke to you he is doing an
absurd amount of therapy in the offseason because he's zero
and four against Mahomes in the playoffs and he knows.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
He is better than he is better than Mahomes. We
all know this.
Speaker 5 (12:16):
But again, I had him at three, you had him
at two. We all put Homes above him because he
wins when it matters, like cool, Josh Allen MVP last year,
Matt Mitchell didn't go to a parade in Buffalo. No
one did because there isn't one. They don't matter and
MVP is cool. And that was my whole point with
the whole QB rankings is we've gone too far with
the stats. And Josh Allen knows that where it's his stats,
(12:38):
he likes it. He likes win an MVPs.
Speaker 4 (12:40):
But he even watched the hard Knocks.
Speaker 5 (12:42):
I love how he is just so he knows the deal.
It's all bullshit, like he wants to see people slam
through tables in February, rotting down Buffalo's main street with
all the fans. So I'm with you that you can
have skepticism on this team further win total and you
can try to go against it, but I'm not going
to overthink it. I'll go over and I would be
(13:02):
shocked if turn out the one or two. See the
way their schedule lines up in their division, like we're
about the dive of their division here.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
The only way it.
Speaker 5 (13:10):
Doesn't work out is if he gets hurt, Like if
he's healthy, at best, he's losing one home game. Josh
Allen just does not lose home games, like he is
just a different beast at home and even on the road.
We saw last year that was his biggest step up
as he's not doing those super turnovers like him and
Joe Brady. It's another year together. So yeah, this is
a team you can tell like I am on. I'm
(13:30):
all in on them, like them the Chiefs. They are
the only teams I've taken positions.
Speaker 4 (13:34):
On in the AFC for Super Bowl.
Speaker 5 (13:36):
And Josh Allen's so good that he makes me break
a rule, which I know it's a dumb rule, but
I usually don't put a high amount of money to
teams organizations that never won Super Bowls before. NFL is
really weird where teams that have won before in the
past or whatever, they tend to repeat teams have never
won before. I don't know why, they just they don't win.
Like we've seen it time and time again. The same organizations.
(13:59):
I mean, you can just go back to the last
ten years and look at the repeats. It's it's the
same organizations are always in the super Bowl. But with
the talent level they have, Chad, the money they've spent
on their young talent, of their defense, I do think
with the coaching staff they have, and this is like,
this is a true attend to this division. So and
then the not just the division of the league. So yeah,
minus two seventy five, Chad News I've bet that straight up. Yeah,
(14:20):
if someone out there you're making one divisional bet and
you want to go safe, go for it, like you're
probably not gonna lose your money unless Josh Allen gets hurt.
But again, there's too much risk for me with that
with injuries that I'd rather parlays parlay this into something
than putting all this into one bet. So yeah, as
you can tell, Chad, I'm very high on this team,
and I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
The biggest Achilles heel when you drive.
Speaker 5 (14:39):
Through the numbers, and this this organization is their drafting
of their defense. Have these guys improved enough on the
talent they've lost in the back end these last couple
of years to be a great defense to match Josh
Allen And they have not. They've not shown up in
the playoffs when it matters, it's always on Josh Allen.
And you know last year, I like I said, I
don't want to make the excuse for him, but you know,
you expect, you put up thirty points on the road,
(15:01):
you're probably gonna win. And that he fell apart in
the defense, fall apart there that against the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
So that that's the question. Chat like you have it.
It's the defense.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
But also we talked about the young talent they're adding
to the defense. Everything I keep reading is about Matt
Mulano coming back and how he's a game changer for
this defense. They weren't that good when he was playing
last year and so.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
He was hurt.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Yeah, but he's been hurt NonStop.
Speaker 5 (15:32):
But when he comes to the field, like even the playoffs,
he made a couple of plays, You're like, that's why
he's so special, Like even in that Ravens game, he
had a couple of players where we're like, that's why
he is special. I get you're coming from he's older
and he gets hurt a lot, but that's just a name.
That's why they're telling you that because there are other
guys in their defense.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
That aren't hiusehold names. That's why they're not talking about it.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
But to me, again, I get where you're coming from
where it's like he's an older guy, but he's not
like they have other parts that are gonna be more important.
Speaker 4 (15:57):
But I agree, the question for me is just going
to be there.
Speaker 5 (16:00):
Like they they've been drafting secondary, they've been spending money
on the secondary.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
Can can they cover?
Speaker 5 (16:06):
Because I still can't believe Mahomes and that that Chiefs
offense put up whatever it was, thirty three thirty points
last year.
Speaker 4 (16:14):
In that playoff game.
Speaker 5 (16:15):
That was not I think that might have been the
first time all year they put over thirty points, right,
something crazy like that.
Speaker 4 (16:19):
So that's that's the acchilles of this team.
Speaker 5 (16:21):
And I think that's why I get your skepticism when
you talked about it a little bit, but I've been
blind to it all summer. I'm just like, man, this
is he's twenty nine, Josh Allen whatever, this is his
seventh or ade season. It's just all lined up, like,
is he really about to go zero for five against
Mahomes and the playoffs? I just I can't believe it,
Like when you dive into the stats, it doesn't make sense.
It's an anomaly. He's just so talented, he's so good,
(16:44):
but he just keeps fucking up in these fourth quarters,
or the defense fucks up for them in the fourth quarters.
And it's like, if you're a Betty Mant Chad, eventually
it's gonna go the other way.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
Brother.
Speaker 5 (16:53):
So that's why I'm hitting it. You know, super Bowls
plus seven hundred. You could do what Chad's doing, which
is like bad, and maybe see if you can get
a better number. But I do matchups, so like I've
already thrown a couple of matchups with them in the Rams,
them and the Eagles, and they're all they're all nice
and juice. I think they're all like fifty or forty
five to one.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
You know, I do the matchups.
Speaker 1 (17:12):
I've already I actually did the Bills and the Niners
at forty five to one like that. I think we
talked about this with the NFC West.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
I just feel like I'm.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Not seeing any value in anything Betting the Bills outright
eleven and a half. I guess you could take it,
but it just feels like last year was so elite
and so special it's ripe for some regression. It wasn't
just Josh Allen. It was sort of everything being perfect
on the offense. I watched the movie Sinners over the weekend.
(17:44):
I didn't even know Hailey Steinfeld was in it, and
she was awesome, and it just made me excited for
her and Josh Allen because you know, I love love.
Speaker 5 (17:56):
She's the ultimate catch, and you know, Josh like, that's
why I love about it though, Like he's hype dives,
he has an off field life, but even watching Hard Knocks,
he's just so committed to that team and that organization,
the fan base.
Speaker 4 (18:08):
It's like they just I can't get over how they
deserve it. The Bills deserve this, but you really.
Speaker 5 (18:15):
You got you got one of a comment with Josh Allen.
He is he is superman, sotty, pretty sweet.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
I just think it'd be great if next year Josh
Allen is coming off of super Bowl win and Hailey
Steinfeld is walking the red carpet with him at the Oscars.
I think it'll be amazing, all right, Matt Mitchell. I
feel like we need to get Matt Mitchell's take here
because he's so aligned with the Bills and defined by
the Bills.
Speaker 3 (18:40):
I appreciate you making me a part of this.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Will you offer any insight as a fan?
Speaker 3 (18:48):
I'll say this, I am consumed with the exact same
amount of dread for the exact same amount of reasons
as I have been. I think Simon nailed it perfectly.
I do think if you want to get involved in
betting Buffalo, I actually do think the Super Bowl matchup
angle is probably a really smart one because seventy one's
(19:12):
asinine because it always feels like it's a billion to
one that they'll win the super Bowl the last season
in the old stadium, and wanting to know if you're
a conspiracy theorist, the league turning its eye to Buffalo.
They'll want them to be successful and make money in
this unbelievably expensive, publicly funded stadium. So I think there's
(19:32):
some angles there, all right.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
No, it's good for the script. I agree with that. Yeah,
New England Patriots.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
This is what's interesting, huge trendy team getting a trend
alert here. Matt Mitchell cue the alarm trend alert.
Speaker 4 (19:46):
Ms of bursting at the moment from Melbourne.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
Everyone loves this team. You can see it in the numbers.
For example, their conference styles are thirty five to one.
There's Super Bowl odds are seventy five to one. Their
win total is seven and a half, same exact across
the board as the Miami Dolphins, but the Patriots division
odds five to one, the Dolphins division odds seven to one.
(20:17):
So we know where the money's going. We know what
people are excited about. And then this past weekend against
the Bills, like everyone are not against the Bills. Oh
my god, I just totally forgot who they. I think
they played the Commanders the Patriots. They're starting with their
(20:38):
new left tackle. That kid from LSU looked amazing. Those
little videos were all over the TikTok of him doubling guys,
of him pancaking guys.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
So hooray the Patriots are back.
Speaker 5 (20:58):
It's going to be a team that, like you just said,
the general public's gonna hype up, and you know, is
it deserving?
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Chad of the hype. You know, it's all.
Speaker 5 (21:06):
It's all debatable, but I think we both look at
this team and we see the pieces they have and
it all comes back to Rabel, right. I think we're
both one of those guys. We just we look at
coach and it's such an important cog and I think
most professional betters do. And that's why they've taken a
position here where it's like, Okay, they.
Speaker 4 (21:22):
Have the schedule you expect.
Speaker 5 (21:25):
When they have they've addressed the offensive line, it should
be so much improved that you know, if Diggs just
gets back to seventy five percent is what he was
before the knee injury, that's.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
A huge upgrade for them. The wires super position, this
is someone that can run.
Speaker 5 (21:39):
Routes like he is really really crisp, but at running routes,
that's what Digs has always been so talented at. So,
you know, Drake May you know people people have taken
positions on them. We've had people on the show that
you know, talked about him being one of the best
quarterbacks they thought coming out in that group, and I've
just I've never seen it. And even last year he
(22:01):
had moments of that.
Speaker 4 (22:01):
He popped.
Speaker 5 (22:02):
But it's like, you know, we all know he has
the talent that have throat beat deep throws downfield, or
he can run the ball, and that's that.
Speaker 4 (22:11):
Was never the question with him.
Speaker 5 (22:12):
The question with him was being consistent, and that was
the problem with him coming out and last year was
kind of a throwaway because you know, this year is
gonna have Rabel McDaniel's coaching them up.
Speaker 4 (22:21):
That's a huge, huge upgrade than what he had last year.
Speaker 5 (22:24):
I think people might be a year early on him
because of what they're projecting, because people are like, well,
they have an easy schedule. Every fan base, you talk
to any fan base outside of New England, you're you're
the easy team on their schedule in New England, Like
you're talking about everyone being you have an easy schedules here.
When people look at their schedule and break it down No.
Thirty one, other teams are saying, that's a win against you, guys.
(22:45):
I don't think anyone's giving a loss to the Patriots.
So they're they're an interesting team where it's like I
get what the bookmakers they're doing. They're taking a position
on them and their model is projecting out this is
a really talented team.
Speaker 4 (22:58):
I think it's a year early.
Speaker 5 (22:59):
Like my model literally has them right next to Miami basically.
And you just talked about the difference like seven to
one Miami to win this division.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
They're five to one.
Speaker 5 (23:08):
That's a big that's a big difference. So yeah, I
like this Patriots team a lot. I love the pieces there,
but it's like, oh, I don't what is what is
the ceiling? It's they put them at seven and a
half wins. Are you taking their under? I'm not taking
their under because there's so many variables. They could easily
go over this with Rabel and Drake May.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
Because it sucks to lose. It fucking sucks losing awful.
That's why I want to win.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
Dude, I did the math, all right, I did the
math because a I've asked this before, But give me
your opinion on the number of wins you think Mike
Vrabel can get for this team because of his coaching.
Remember Mike Rabel managing the clock, managing the game overall, strategically,
(23:59):
understand the rules. Doesn't have any peers in the NFL
right now. The only one was Belichick, and he was
out maneuvering Belichick the last few times they played against
each other, So I have an opinion on how many
games I think he can win for them.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
How many do you think? How many do you think
he can win for them?
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Yeah? I think last time I said two, and I
think you had at two and a half, right, Yeah,
something like that.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Yeah, I set the line at two and a half.
I think it can be as many as three. There's
a couple factors for me that make me like this
over and it's actually not the Drake May hype. I
think that the offensive line will be improved. I think
it's a generally better coach team. I'm discounting Stefan Diggs.
You just don't know. So their skill positions haven't really
(24:44):
improved very much. But I think their defensive line will
be better. They got Milton Williams, Christian Barmore will be back.
I like their defensive back Fiel of the Lot Christian
Gonzales continuing to improve as a physical, lockdown corner. They
have really good offensive backs. But like you just said,
it's the schedule.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
I count.
Speaker 1 (25:05):
I count six fifty to fifty games Raiders, Steelers.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
Panthers, Dolphins twice.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
I count six games that they should win Giants, Jets
two times, Browns, Titans, Saints.
Speaker 5 (25:26):
So but this is my point, they're honestly not that
much better than those teams. So that's gonna be the
thing you need. You're gonna need Drake Man to take
that step.
Speaker 4 (25:35):
Like of course, that's the margin.
Speaker 5 (25:36):
With football is that you need you need the quarterback
to show it and be consistent. Where we all know
he has talent, but talent doesn't mean shit in the NFL.
Everybody has talent, So can he be consistent with the
talent that he has is the biggest question. And yeah,
for me, I wanted to take the over coming into this.
I mean, we talked about them months ago where I
(25:57):
felt they were the best value bet.
Speaker 4 (25:59):
For this division.
Speaker 5 (26:00):
I still think that's true in some sense, even though
it's come down a little bit. It's like if Drake
make takes that next step and Josh Allen eventually takes
the wrong hit, like he's such a physical quarterback, you know,
nothing lasts forever. Yeah, this would be their front runner
to me. So then all of a sudden, me and
you have amazing odds I'm most likely their front runner
team just because the hype is so high, Like you
(26:20):
said with this new England team and.
Speaker 4 (26:21):
The schedule breaks that way. So I get it.
Speaker 5 (26:24):
I get why guys are taking a position on them.
I just I can't find it like right now, like
we already talked about it, Like I was confident on
the Bills over eleven and a half, This one I
wanted to be confident on like I had confident. Like again,
my model has an eight and a half. That's a
full game up, So I would bet this if you
want to take the over here. I'm just I'm so
nervous about Drake May. I haven't seen enough even in
(26:45):
this training camp. I haven't read enough of him being
consistent where it's like I want to see them, you know,
a week out before the season before I put any
money to this Patriots team. I really need more time,
more info from the be writers, just because right now
it's just too much happiness and excite me with the
Patriots up there, Like everything just seems like such flowers
and bullshit. Able Like had some comment to some guy
in they meet and everyone went ape shit. They're like,
(27:06):
this is what we needed, this is what we miss
and it's like, yeah, I get it. We all love Rabel,
but we need to see what his actual game plan
will be on the field. So uh yeah, good start
to it, right. They blew that, like you said, they
blew out the Commanders. Good defense, discipline, that's what that
organization needs. So the right start for the preseason. But yeah,
(27:27):
I need to see what's going on with Drake Main
these next you know, three weeks to really have a
confident bet on them.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Yeah, I lean over, but it is not even close
to my favorite bet in the division. Have we gone
anywhere near any of your favorite bets in the division
so far?
Speaker 2 (27:44):
I just want to make sure it wills.
Speaker 5 (27:46):
I love Like we just talked about the bill super
Bowl bets against Super Bowl matchups and they're over. I
love low and a half, Like, okay, I get them
at thirteen wins, and like, as a huge that's my
model as a human. I'm just like I'm the opposite
of you. I look at their schedule, I'm like, where
do they lose? Like they're just they are just so
much better than some man of these other teams because
(28:06):
the style they play with Joe Brady and the ball
control of that running style they have on offense.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
Now, so yeah, I told you, I'm drinking too much
of the kool aid.
Speaker 5 (28:14):
So I was happy to hear you skeptical because I
need a little bit of pull back. I've talked to
other pros who pulled back a little bit because of
that defense. But I'm also just like, man, it's it's
so hard to pull back Josh Allen at this this
age and this prime. It's just we saw it last year,
Like you said, that was his best season ever. He
just has gotten better every year, and it's like, what
is this. Are we about to see the next step
(28:35):
where he literally has one to two turnovers this upcoming season.
I mean, that's that's gonna be the game changer for him.
Is just if he cannot fumble or throw those stupid
picks in the red zone, which we saw last year,
he became MVP. So that's that's the question with them
and with this team here, it's all about Drake May.
Like I don't think neither.
Speaker 4 (28:52):
You were either high on him or low on him.
We're just no opinion. He didn't showing.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
Yeah, I have a controversial favorite bet that I didn't
really come to a conclusion on until I finished my
research for this division this weekend. But first, quick heads
up to anybody playing fantasy football this season. The ultimate
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(29:19):
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Speaker 2 (29:21):
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All right, Miami, As I said, Division seven to one,
Conference thirty five to one, Super Bowl seventy five to
one win total seven and a half. I'm telling you, man,
(30:08):
if Tua is healthy, this is a competitive team, no
matter how bad their defense is. Every time you look
at the stats for the past few years when he
is playing a full season, I know we don't like
him as a quarterback. I know we would never put
him in a top ten, but he is a top
ten quarterback across every single metric. Superficial stats, Advanced metrics,
(30:33):
anything you look at because of who he is, because
of the system he plays in. He is just too
good in this offense.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
He is too accurate.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
The offense is too hard to stop on short slants
and quick throws in short yardage situation. So everyone is
down on them, which screams to me, give me the
over seven and a half.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
I get it, I get it.
Speaker 5 (31:01):
I know some people that have taken positions on this
because of what you've just talked about. This team is
different with two, and you know that's that's the question
here is can you stay healthy? And I don't think
he can chad the guys. He just doesn't know how to
take these hits. And even though you know he might
dodge the head injuries and it might be something else,
he just seems brittle.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
And you know that one year.
Speaker 5 (31:25):
I think we both get sucked into it because they
were so incredibly dominant that one year. And I hate
everything about this team. You probably are right, like maybe
I'm getting sucked into it, but like the two and noise,
like everyone's finally getting tired of the McDaniels.
Speaker 4 (31:39):
Bullshit, Like why are we all here? What is death?
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Is?
Speaker 4 (31:44):
This? Death is just are we in a black hole.
Speaker 5 (31:45):
It's like, dude, you're a fucking football coach man, Like,
if you're winning, it's funny when you're just one and
done every year and you may be back through into
the playoffs and you get your asses smoked by a
real contender. It's just it gets old pretty quick. And
that's my fear with them is up their windows legit closed.
And you know they might have, you know, one of
(32:08):
the best front sevens in defense, but the back end
is a fercious, horrible, horrible secondary and they've already had
a couple injuries in the preseason to that secondary. So
it's I'm one of those people. I'm with the general public.
I'm just so down on this team. But once again,
they're like the Patriots. I'm not touching the win tot
because of the quarterback, where if he is healthy like
(32:29):
you're talking about, they'll get the ten wins.
Speaker 4 (32:31):
Like Tua.
Speaker 5 (32:32):
He puts up the numbers, and they have a defense
that can steal them some games at certain spots.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
So again, I.
Speaker 5 (32:39):
Could see it happen, like I could see them being
better than the Patriots and obviously better than the Jets
because they have a legit quarterback that we've seen do
it and in all sences the system that you know
there is one of the best running styles in all football.
Like as much as I like to give that coach,
he knows how to scheme it up like they are great.
Speaker 4 (32:55):
I mean not in the red zone.
Speaker 5 (32:56):
I know, we all know they're like the thirty second
or thirty first team to come are running the red zone,
but everywhere else they're really talented. So you know, between
a chan Waddle and Tyreek, if Tyreek gets head of
as asked, that's that's a really great offense when it's
ran by Tuus. So I get why you love it.
Speaker 4 (33:13):
Chat.
Speaker 5 (33:13):
I'm not gonna not gonna show in your bet. I'm
just I'm stuck on it where it's like my model
is like you, it hasn't met nine wins, And usually
I would slam that like a game and a half.
I want to be all over that, but I'm just
so scared of Tua, like everything about him, Like I
know he's got the weakend and I feel like he's
got a brittle body. It's just it's not the right
mix to me for betting these win totals with a
(33:33):
quarterback like that.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
If he's healthy, they play the Jets twice, they play
the Browns, and they play the Saints. My supposition, my bet,
for lack of a better term, can they find four
other wins in thirteen games? So it's like you said,
(33:58):
the key the key component here is do you believe
to uh will.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Be healthy.
Speaker 4 (34:05):
And you cannot stay healthy.
Speaker 1 (34:07):
The key component for the Bills is do you believe
their defense can improve enough to help Josh Allen? When
it really matters. I tend to believe the Bills defense
cannot improve enough to help Josh Allen. You tend to
believe it can. I tend to believe to it can
be healthy. You tend to believe he can. And that
is the difference right now between our opinions on both
(34:31):
of these bets, in which we are basically fifty one
forty nine right and I'm leaning into a being healthy
because I don't think anyone wants to make this bet.
Speaker 5 (34:44):
People have the like I told you, like the the
public is totally out and the media is toy.
Speaker 4 (34:49):
But the wise guys, the wise guys are.
Speaker 5 (34:51):
Taking position on them because they're like you, they think
it's been an undervalued team.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
I'm a fucking wise guy.
Speaker 1 (34:57):
I don't even need to know what you're talking about
and what you're hearing to know that the Dolphins with
everyone hitting on them, and what two his stats have
been when he's healthy to know over seven and a
half is the right side.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
But told you the why guys are on all these
fucking teams like they like the Patriots too.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
That's why. Yeah, we're about to get to this.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
Guys don't know anything.
Speaker 4 (35:16):
This is the team was talking about the Jets.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
All right, let's talk about the Jets.
Speaker 1 (35:21):
Let's get to them as long as we can recognize
that I'm on the right side as the wise guys
with the Dolphins, Jets.
Speaker 4 (35:27):
Your gambler, who bets on the Jets? Who have you
not learned anything about.
Speaker 1 (35:31):
Betting the Jets are gonna come back fourteen to one,
the win to win the division conference, seventy five to one,
Super Bowl two hundred to one win total five and
a half. So it's true. It's really tricky, right because
there's not a lot of reason to be optimistic about
(35:53):
the Jets. And this is part bias and part thinking.
It's bias for me in terms of how I feel
about defensive stats when it comes to betting. I think
they're vitally important, and I oftentimes think that they are
(36:14):
undervalued in creating a point spread and in how bookmakers
look at them and how fans look at defensive stats,
especially things that the Jets have proven to be good.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
At when they had good coaching.
Speaker 1 (36:28):
They've got a dominant defensive tackle in Quinn Williams, they
have a potentially dominant corner in Saucegardner. There is always
sneaky upside from this defense. For me, it was a
very good defense when Robert Salo was coaching it, and
then it creatored I like what Aaron Glenn did with
the Lions when they had nobody because everybody was injured.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
So those are the positives to me.
Speaker 1 (36:54):
But I'm not going to make a bet on anything
regarding this team because their offense is just so bad.
Speaker 4 (37:00):
I'm I'm drinking the kool aid. I can't believe it.
And it was funny.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
I was, dude.
Speaker 5 (37:05):
I know, I've been trying to fight it off, but
I've been just buying so many shares all summer in
fantasy football of Justin Fields, and I needed to see
one minute of him in preseason running that touchdown to
be like, this is the vision. This is the vision
of the stupid ass team getting to eight wins, eight
and nine somehow with Aaron Glenn, because I do believe
(37:27):
in him as a coach man, Like that Detroit defense
was held the game held together with bubble gum and bullshit.
Speaker 4 (37:33):
I don't know how they function.
Speaker 5 (37:36):
That line's defense could not believe it. They were the
one seed, like he held it together. His coaching is
so good, like his schemes, his adjustments.
Speaker 4 (37:46):
Again, you were talking about it. Maybe there was some
dude in.
Speaker 5 (37:49):
The background that's giving him all this data. But Aaron
Glenn everything I'm reading.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
I love the.
Speaker 5 (37:54):
Way he talks to his team, how the guys talk
about him.
Speaker 4 (37:58):
You know, we'll see this.
Speaker 5 (38:00):
But it's like, five and a half wins in this
division feels very, very dangerously low, Like this is should
be six and a half, seven and a half for
a team that, in my mind is no different than
that Patriots team or this Miami team, where it's like
if Justin Field's with all this potential, Like again, this guy,
(38:21):
I know, Bear fans don't want to hear it because
he was a loser and he just could not win
any of these games. But he was like a top three,
top four running quarterback in the league. Like his level
of athletic talent, that was never the question. The question
was can he become a pocket passer? And I feel
like we have our answer there. He is not a
pocket passer. So if they go into it being honest
(38:44):
with him and he's being honest with himself, this team
has an obsane amount of upside because what you just
talked about, Chad, you have the D line, you have
half of the field locked down. If Sauce can because
to me, Sauce fall off the cliff last year and
I don't know if that was him being you know,
off the field distract he just didn't care because no
one else in the team cared. But if you if
he can be what he was his first year in
(39:05):
the league and be a shutdown corner, that's a huge
deal for this defense, Like that's that can change the
whole identity because Aaron Glenz never had that type of talent.
I mean, again, they had some of the best safeties
on football in Detroit, and but they didn't really have
great cornerbacks. Like they had so many injuries across the board,
so yeah, I just I can't even believe it was
five and a half, and I hate that.
Speaker 4 (39:24):
I loved it right away.
Speaker 5 (39:26):
And I knew my model was gonna love it because
of what you just talked about it. Like, I'm so school,
I'm so skewed to defenses and the way the league
has gone with these running quarterbacks, like they just having
a guy that can get you a first down with
his legs on third or fourth down. It's become the
cheek coot. I mean, we're seeing it in this preseason chat.
We keep talking about these kickoffs overs are fourteen to two.
(39:46):
I believe in this preseason it's changed. The game has changed.
Starting at your own thirty five, start your own forty
has changed the game. And that's why Justin Fields, if
he can be true with himself and realize he's not
a pocket quarterback, they need to keep keep him either
moving outside the pocket or you know, doing these Reid options.
That's gonna be the key to success for this Jets team.
(40:07):
So yeah, they're They're a team I love because it's
going to be you know, five and a half. You're
never out of this bet. If you have two wins
with six weeks to go, you can lie to yourself
and be like this Jets team they can sneak they
can sneak out a couple wins here end the season.
Get me over this five and a half. So I'm
shocked on another one. It's like they're just they everything
(40:29):
about them, new coach, the new coach bump. Everyone's given
it to the Patriots, but no one's giving it to
this Jets team at all. I think that's interesting where
it's like Aaron Glenn Man, he's he's not that different
than Raverle in some aspects of his motivator of men.
But I get where you're coming from because we've seen
Brabel do it. We've never seen Aaron Glenn do it.
Speaker 1 (40:47):
Well, that's exactly why, Hey, we haven't seen we haven't
seen Glenn do it as a head coach, like you
loved what I saw with the Lions, like you totally
lean into defense, usually leaning to defense, especially when I
think there's value in the win total. And I don't
think that's being accounted for. I think the bookmakers are
seeing the public and saying it's the Jets.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
It's Justin Field's on his third team. He's a wash out.
Speaker 1 (41:12):
He can't throw, and it's a whiny fan base and
everyone is thinking Aaron Rodgers is gone. This team can't
get out of its own way. They're gonna be losers, right.
So I totally think there's value on the five and
a half. I just didn't jump on it because Aaron
Glenn is a defensive coach. That's where I think he
(41:35):
will really put his stamp. I don't know what they're
gonna do offensively, and even if they do do well offensively,
Justin Fields as a running quarterback cannot finish a season.
You know, we talk about Tua, right, it's the same
thing with Justin Fields.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
Last year.
Speaker 1 (41:53):
Justin Fields was great with the Steelers, but he didn't
finish with the Steelers.
Speaker 4 (41:57):
And that was an injuries. That was Tomlin and I
promise he made a promise, Russell.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Wilson promise, but also a little bit of the Steelers
were winning.
Speaker 4 (42:08):
But despite Justin Fields.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
I know who you're coming from by Justin Fields.
Speaker 4 (42:12):
But yeah, he wasn't hurting them either though, like he
went five and two or something.
Speaker 1 (42:15):
We are we saying that the model for the Jets
now is what the Steelers did last year, only we
think it can extend over the course of a season.
Speaker 5 (42:24):
At least to me, Pittsburgh was saying to him, don't
don't let us lose because of you. So they were
really pulling it back where Aaron Glenn's like apparently being
like all blown smoke up his ass, being like, you're
one of the top guys.
Speaker 4 (42:36):
We're gonna release you. We're not going to try to
contain you.
Speaker 5 (42:39):
We want you to be one of these guys that's
you know, slinging it, running around with it. So again,
I think they're totally from the viewpoint of they'd be happy.
Speaker 4 (42:48):
The Jets.
Speaker 5 (42:48):
I think if they went you know, three and fourteen,
but if they can if they can unlock something here
and justin fields, the right the game of a two
year deal, I believe if they can get to eight
nine wins, that's that's something to built on go head
into next year. So that's that's my hesitation here where
it's like I totally get where you're coming from, just
in fields and injuries and everything like that. It's just
(43:09):
when a new coach comes in you have a defense.
I usually I drink the kool aid on those type of.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
Teams, all right.
Speaker 1 (43:17):
Simon's favorite division bet is the Buffalo Bills over eleven
and a half. Mine is Miami over seven and a half.
He also likes the Jets over five and a half.
I probably could be convinced to join him on that enthusiastically,
but we're not going to jump in on the New
(43:37):
England Patriots. The Favorites will return with our next episode
Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page when we talk
NFC East. Also go subscribe at Real Chad Noman. Get
loads of extra content there, download us with Spotify, Apple Pods.
Speaker 2 (43:51):
Wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe. He was
five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
Speaker 1 (43:57):
Until next time, Love you.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
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