The Favorites - NFC North Betting Preview with Seth Wickersham

In a division that could be the most exciting in the NFL, the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings will compete for the crown. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss every team from a betting perspective, but first welcome on a very special returning guests. Intrepid reporter Seth Wickersham of ESPN joins the show to discuss Caleb Williams and the Bears, following the release of his new book AMERICAN KINGS: BIOGRAPHY OF THE QUARTERBACK, available now wherever books are sold. #Volume 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chad Milman of the Action Network.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Huge, huge show today, probably the biggest one of the
preseason so far, not just because of the division we're
going to be doing in our previews, but because we
have a very special guest. And I know, I know
for a fact my co host, my companion Mike and
Padre might be a professional better. Simon Hunter loves this guest,

(00:36):
and so I am in.

Speaker 3 (00:38):
Yeah, Chad, life's good.

Speaker 4 (00:39):
Two weeks from today we'll be talking week one lines
and even better, we have arguably arguably the number one
journalist sports journalist in America on the show today.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
Arguably.

Speaker 3 (00:52):
Yeah, someone's gonna argue the other side. There's always that guy.
You're not gonna be.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
Me, brother, He's not gonna be me. We are.

Speaker 1 (01:00):
We are going to have our final two episodes of
our annual division by division NFL previews this week. We're
finishing our team by team breakdowns. We will talk about
the NFC North today, we will talk about the Chicago Bears.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
We will talk about.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
Caleb Williams, which is appropriate because our guest today made
some big, big news about Caleb Williams earlier this past
spring because he's got a massive new book coming out,
which is brilliant, because he's brilliant, and he's an intrepid reporter.

(01:39):
He's a friend of the pot, He's my close buddy.

Speaker 2 (01:41):
He's the author of the.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
New book American Kings, Biography of the Quarterback great title.

Speaker 2 (01:51):
Seth Wickersham, my brother.

Speaker 5 (01:55):
I mean, can I just leave?

Speaker 3 (01:58):
It?

Speaker 6 (01:58):
Can only go downhill from here? Where did everybody fire
the book?

Speaker 5 (02:01):
I'll talk to you later, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
I'll good run.

Speaker 5 (02:04):
We had great come on.

Speaker 1 (02:05):
Yeah, listen, you made the news this past spring about Caleb.
It completely blew up that he did not want to
be on the Bears. I want to get much, much
deeper in the book, but give people a little bit
of insight into what that is like when you were
breaking that kind of story, and then how chaotic and

(02:26):
crazy the following weeks are, and a little bit about
sort of your building up of a relationship with Caleb
and his father, which is a huge, huge part of
the book.

Speaker 6 (02:40):
You know, I started working on the book in artist
in twenty twenty three, and Caleb was someone that I
wanted to meet with just because he had won the
Heisman trophies first USC, and he was kind of the
first above board, multimillionaire college quarterback. He was the first
professional amateur quarterback, and so I kind of wanted to
learn about that. So I spent some time with him
here in New York actually, and then I met with

(03:04):
his dad months later in outside of DC. And you know,
at that point his last season at USC, it was
a little bit of a struggle, like it just things
didn't look right. But his dad and the people who
knew Caleb best, who were all there at the meeting,
were all really focused on the draft, and they showed

(03:26):
me these slides of how Caleb picked a college, the
spreadsheet that he used, how he ranked and waited various
schools and programs and aspects of it. And the more
I learned everything from basically the beginning, you know, of
his junior year of college was reverse engineered for this

(03:47):
moment to be the first pick in the draft, and
my god, they were pulling it off. And so that
to me was just mind blowing. And then you had
this uncertainty. His dad is like, you know, the Chicago
is where quarterbacks go to die, and he wanted to
think big like Jack Elway did like Archie Manning did,
and try to figure out a way to give his

(04:08):
kids some agency over his future employer. And so while
I was working on the book with other characters, I
followed them through that process.

Speaker 5 (04:16):
I was in touch with them throughout. Then it happened.
I wasn't really sure.

Speaker 6 (04:21):
You know, he ends up going to the Bears. I
still wasn't sure what I would do with it. And
then every premonition that his dad had about how things
could go at the Bears went that way. I mean,
they were horrible in every way, and it was very predictable,
and his dad predicted it, and so at that point
I just kept reporting. I met with Caleb and his
dad separately earlier this year to kind of fact check things.

(04:45):
And then you know, it's kind of a waiting game.
Like the weird thing about books is that, like you
do all this work and then there are these massive
gulfs of no action, of nothing happening while the book
is in production, whatever it might be. And so that's
kind of how it all came together. And then you know,
you're putting together a new story. Some editors did that,

(05:06):
and then it goes out into the world and you're
doing a lot of talking.

Speaker 2 (05:12):
Listen.

Speaker 1 (05:13):
I know Simon wants to jump in because I was
talking to Simon yesterday. And you know, for those Seth
is one of my closest friends. We talked practically every day,
so I don't think of him as a brilliant, intrepid reporter.
But Simon is a true fanboy, so I want him
to get his questions in. But to that extent, the
book actually is brilliant, and I.

Speaker 2 (05:35):
Loved sort of the character development.

Speaker 1 (05:37):
And anybody who has ever watched a snap of football
should buy this book because it's everything you want as
a football fan.

Speaker 2 (05:46):
It's inside the game.

Speaker 1 (05:48):
You give great detail about various plays that anyone will
remember from John Elway's life.

Speaker 2 (05:55):
All the way through today.

Speaker 1 (05:57):
You mentioned el Way, you mention Man, you were with
both of them, in addition to probably half a dozen
other guys. Explain a little bit as succincly and sort
of your pitch as you can what people are going
to get out of this book as football fans.

Speaker 6 (06:15):
Well, I wrote it as you know, as a as
someone who came in it from a place of real curiosity,
having been a failed high school quarterback myself and having
had my entire identity, you know, at ages, you know, fourteen,
fifteen and sixteen wrapped up in being a quarterback and
what it's like walking through the hallway when you're the
quarterback of the school and you know that, you know,

(06:39):
as you know, I've worked at ESPN now for a
long time, twenty five years, and if you cover the NFL,
you cover quarterbacks. And even after all these years, I
still had questions and I wanted to write a book
for anybody who's ever played quarterback, who's ever wanted to
play quarterback.

Speaker 5 (06:52):
Or anyone who's ever been kind of fascinated with it.
And it's a very unique job.

Speaker 6 (06:58):
It's a very uniquely American job that I wanted to also,
not do a history of the forward past exactly, but
a history of quarterback, Like how did this job go
from its invention in nineteen oh six to very quickly
being something that our culture celebrated and put up there
with you know, other luminaries that you know, we honor

(07:20):
and mythologize.

Speaker 1 (07:22):
Said, you're leaving out two of my favorite things, which
I'll tease for people. John Elway, who is just such
a legend and is an important part of this book.
Has such an amazing quote that gives an example of
how he thinks about his life and makes those comebacks
throughout his career so much more clear about how he

(07:46):
dreams about what will happen after he dies. I don't
want to give it away because people should buy the
book to read it. There's also one of the best
quotes I have seen in a sports book, because you
are deep inside the recruitment at the time of Arch
Manning and there is a quote from one of the
coaches who is recruiting him from a school that he

(08:08):
did not end up going to that is.

Speaker 2 (08:11):
Just so money from that process.

Speaker 1 (08:15):
Again, I don't know, I don't want you know what
said you give the quote because I do want to.
I don't want to like completely have people going blind.
But do you know what I'm talking about from Alabama?

Speaker 5 (08:26):
Yeah, well, let's just say it got oh the Saban one.

Speaker 6 (08:30):
Yeah well, I mean, let's just say that, Like, you know,
I wanted to tell the entire history of the Mannings,
and the story of the Mannings through Arch and really
specifically through Arch's recruitment, and I think I have some
great details about how ruthless it got even though these
guys are like all buddies, like all the college coaches.
It's like they're all friends. But they are so ruthless
and they went to nearly any extent to try to

(08:53):
get arch to go to their school, including you know,
saying some things that you know, let's just say, like,
you know, they're they're pretty, they're pretty personal, you know
when when they when they go with other at their
at their competitors.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
It's great, It's really really good.

Speaker 3 (09:09):
Thanks.

Speaker 1 (09:10):
We just have to just buy the book. Just go
to Amazon, go to American Things, buy the book. Simon Sathy,
I'm fan Boing, but I'll let you.

Speaker 4 (09:19):
You've obviously spent a lot of time with quarterbacks in
your career, and again I'm I'm fifteen years older the
Killer Williams. I can't relate to this kid in many ways,
obviously generational difference when you spend time with him and
all these other quarterbacks you spent time with the have
done great things in the NFL. Does he have the
mental makeup to be a leader of men? Can you
see him leading men for the next ten years in

(09:42):
a battle eighteen weeks out of the year.

Speaker 3 (09:44):
Does he have that makeup to you? Or is he
still childish in some ways where.

Speaker 4 (09:48):
You know, the big thing in media this past week
was him throwing a hissy fit when he threw the ball,
missed the yeah, and again that's that's normal.

Speaker 3 (09:55):
We've all done that when we were thirteen. So that's when,
like all these pros.

Speaker 4 (09:59):
I'm talking all these guys betting big money, their big
question is can he be a leader of men?

Speaker 3 (10:04):
Caleb Williams, And what's your opinion on him?

Speaker 4 (10:06):
Because obviously you spent so much time with so many
great quarterbacks. I would love to know your view on
his mental makeup.

Speaker 6 (10:12):
Well, if I knew the exact answer to that, I
would have flown to New York on my private helicopter
and you know.

Speaker 5 (10:20):
Go back to my mansion.

Speaker 6 (10:22):
But I think that Caleb is in the ballpark of
having what it takes. I mean, we'll see. I think
that like the interesting thing to zoom out. I mean,
it's one point. I was sitting with Steve Young and
we started going through all of the hats that you
have to wear as a quarterback, everything from Mattine idol
to feel general to amateur psychologists to spokesperson for a

(10:43):
multi billion dollar organization to you know, read taking asshole,
the times, all these things, and I think we stopped
at seventeen and it was probably still incomplete. And I
think that what Caleb has in abundance and this is
a kind of a timeless quality. I think that's really
being clarified now is that the fame and the notoriety

(11:05):
that has come with this position and the place that
we hold it in our culture has created a monster
where I don't think having one of the ten best.

Speaker 5 (11:15):
Arms of your generation is just enough anymore.

Speaker 6 (11:18):
I think that you have to have that quality that
politicians have, that rock stars have, that lead actors have,
where there's a hole in your personality that needs constant adoration,
like writers that needs constant adoration, constant love that almost
leaves to lives, needs to live in a self constructed

(11:39):
ecosystem where everything revolves around you. And that in itself
is fascinating because it is something that these guys need
to do to hardwire themselves to make it through this
unbelievable winnowing from being one of like sixteen thousand starting
quarterbacks in high school in America to being one of
thirty two in the NFL, to being one of the

(12:00):
ten Good Ones, to being one of the three that
make it to.

Speaker 5 (12:03):
The Hall of Fame.

Speaker 6 (12:06):
And it's also not something you just turn off. And
I think that, like, it's not the healthiest way to live,
and I think that when you're in retirement, especially, like
there's something I wrote about it quite a bit in
the book. Because you don't just turn that off. You
don't play quarterback.

Speaker 5 (12:20):
You are one and.

Speaker 6 (12:21):
That doesn't end when you stop playing, and so how
you contend with that for the rest of your life
is something I was really fascinated with.

Speaker 1 (12:28):
Yeah, that to me was amazing sort of a lot
of these guys, Warren Moon, you spent a lot of
time with John Elway, Steve Young, you had in the
past written about why it's it all and maintained a
relationship with his family, so you understood sort of how
he managed the rest of his life. And everything is
not always as it appears with these guys.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
Even when they look great, right.

Speaker 1 (12:55):
John Elway has made tens of millions, if not one
hundreds of millions of dollars in his post NFL career.
Steve Young's same thing. Incredibly successful, But they're not They're
missing something right, Like you are a quarterback, what was
surprising to you, and the reporting went on and then

(13:16):
you were sort of examining it through the writing about
how these quarterbacks portrayed themselves.

Speaker 6 (13:23):
One of the requirements I had for a character, I thought,
is that, like they either have to be kind of
an indispensable part of the quarterback story like Uniteds Nameth
the Mannings, or have enough perspective on their career that
they almost had like an opinion about it and they
could see it from the distance and you know, contextualize

(13:44):
it in a way. And I think that in the
process of doing that, I tried to understand what makes
some of the guys more content in retirement than others,
because I mean a lot of guys are completely lost.
I mean Tom Brady talked about it. Think about of
all quarterbacks in history, if not professional athletes in history,

(14:04):
in American history, at least, who had a better runway
into retirement than Tom Brady. I mean, he played until
he chose to walk away at a high level. He
had all these gigs lined up before he officially retired.
He got to retire for a month and then come back,
and so he even had a glimpse of what it

(14:25):
would be like. And yet still even in that year
off that he had between his retirement and when he
started at Fox, he felt lost. And I mean he
did some curious things, including that roast, And I think
that going back to what Simon was talking about and
what we were discussing, it's like, why did he do
that roast? And I think it's for the same reason
that Mickey Mannle used to lock himself in his car

(14:47):
during rainstorms just so he could hear the rain pounding
on the car, because that was the closest thing that
he felt to what his every day was once like
a Yankee stadium. I think that Brady needed to be
back on stage and in the spotlight again.

Speaker 2 (15:04):
Samon, do you want to go next?

Speaker 3 (15:06):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (15:06):
I have so many questions about Caleb just because, yeah,
he's so unique in the sense that you know, they
talked about him getting ready to be an NFL player
when he was like fourteen fifteen, and yeah, you know,
we have plenty of people in the past history that
you know, they had those expectations right they were on
their high school team, was on ESPN.

Speaker 3 (15:25):
They all the lip and it's rare they actually live
up to it.

Speaker 4 (15:29):
Like this kid has met the moment every step in
his career from high school when he got to college,
winning the Heisman, you know, transferring, which is crazy to think,
like how many guys transferred to a different school then
to win a Heisman with that head coach. Now he's
in the NFL, and you know, I look at this
trajectory of it where he's not lived in any sense

(15:51):
of normal life, and I always wonder how does that
affect players like him where we're in a new age, right,
Like you just talk about the man is Eli Manning.
I mean, people might be too young to realize he
was an absolute legend at Ole miss partying his freshman year.
Like I know people that went to school with him,
he was a dog. He was really a legend. And
he turned it around right. His dad got in his head,

(16:12):
his brother got in his head and were like, you
have the potential to be the number one pick. He
got it right, he figured it out. But again he
went through that adversity.

Speaker 3 (16:20):
Caleb Williams.

Speaker 4 (16:21):
Adversity is different, right, This is this adversity is facing
is the Chicago media, And I wonder, how do you
think he's gonna handle that where you know, sure he
went through a little bit of usc nothing like this,
like this adversity's facing where you know they start one
to three this year, He's going to feel it, right,
So I would love to know your viewing him, how
you think he can face adversity.

Speaker 6 (16:42):
First of all, I actually am very bullish on Caleb,
and I think it's entirely possible that they start one
to three because despite what happens in the preseason, these
things take time, and you know, it takes time to
learn a new offense, and it takes time for the
new offense to learn the quarterback, and you know, context matters.
But I think that, like with Caleb, the interesting thing

(17:04):
with me is like Elway was the first player ever
to be number one out of high school, first peck
in the draft, first ballot, Hall of Fame, Peyton came
and followed that, and now Caleb he comes along at
a time where there is a way to do this right.
There's a path to being a quarterback. You have to

(17:24):
have media training, you have to have physical therapy training,
you have to have a throwing coach, you have to
have an armcare coach. You have to you know, shop
high schools and find the one that is doing an
offense that best suits your skill set. You have to
go to all of these passing camps that have no
predictive value, and these quarterback clinics that have no predictive value,

(17:46):
like a lead eleven that you know that, as one
person told me, breed little assholes and succeeded them. And
he did all that stuff right, And I think that,
like that to me is the most interesting. You know,
part of the Caleb story is that, like of this
new generation of guys who say, Okay, I want to

(18:09):
be a quarterback and there's a path to do this
and this is this is how you have to dedicate
your time and your resources and your energy, he managed
to do it. And I think that, like fast forward,
you know, what does that mean for the NFL?

Speaker 5 (18:23):
I mean, so he he had an up and down
last year at USC.

Speaker 6 (18:26):
He obviously had that moment where he's crying in the
stands after they lose to Washington, and then he doesn't
meet with the press after the game, and of course
that just doesn't fly in the NFL. Right, You cannot
you cannot do.

Speaker 5 (18:36):
That in the NFL. The locker room will turn on you.

Speaker 6 (18:40):
And he has a tough rookie year, and I thought
that the leadership and the toughness he displayed. I think
anyone's rookie year is about survival, Like you can't extract
too much from but I think that like, if you're
looking to extract things from Caleb going forward, he was
incredibly tough. Remember that shot he took to the knee
I think on Thanksgiving against Detroit when he was going

(19:01):
out of bounds.

Speaker 5 (19:02):
Got right back up.

Speaker 6 (19:04):
He obviously was working within an offense that wasn't cutting edge,
let's just put it that way.

Speaker 5 (19:12):
He left some plays on the field, but like, this
was not.

Speaker 6 (19:14):
A well organized offense and all wasn't a well organized
organization and yet an operation, and yet he had some
great moments at the end of the games where he
was in those known passing situations and.

Speaker 5 (19:25):
It's on him to make it work, and he did.
And I think that Sean Payton developed.

Speaker 6 (19:32):
This quarterback formula to try to measure processing speed that
I write about, and even though Caleb Williams was never
going to be someone that he was going to draft,
he ran Caleb through it. And one of the things
that he wondered about Caleb was like, how is he
going to react when he's broken because he really hasn't
been And if that rookie year counts as that, I'm

(19:53):
not sure it does, but let's just say it does.
I think that if I were a Bears fan, I'd
to feel pretty good.

Speaker 2 (19:59):
So he just the magic words.

Speaker 1 (20:00):
I know, You've got to get out of here because
you've got to go do much bigger podcast.

Speaker 5 (20:04):
I got time.

Speaker 6 (20:05):
How could I possibly leave when you guys are saying
such nice things about me?

Speaker 2 (20:09):
Well, we gotta go. We got this.

Speaker 1 (20:11):
But before you go, like on this show, one of
our favorite coaches of all time is the guy you
just mentioned, Sean Payton, and you've spent a lot of
time with Sean Payton. You wrote a great story about
him for ESPN and you profiled a lot of what
he was a lot of what you're talking about is
captured in the book as well. You just talked about
the processing speed. He gave you a lot of insight

(20:34):
pre draft about what he was doing that you know
you were sworn to secrecy, which you now have written
about on ESPN dot com as an excerpt for the book.
Tell people who haven't seen any of those things. The
relationship you had with Peyton in this book and what
he shared with you about how he got to b Nick's.

Speaker 6 (20:53):
Well, Sean Payton has, aside from the fact that you know,
he's just one of the best offensive coaches have ever,
he has always been haunted in a certain way. You know,
all of us ex quarterbacks were all Uncle Rico's in
some way, but with him in particular. He made it

(21:14):
to the NFL as a replacement player and in nineteen
eighty seven, and he struggled with processing speed, he struggled
with multitasking, and so he obviously, you know, coached the
hell out.

Speaker 5 (21:28):
Of Drew Brees.

Speaker 6 (21:28):
But when Breeze was on his way out and towards
the end of his career, he wanted to find a replacement,
and he wanted to figure out a way to quantify
college processing speed and if it has a predictive value
in the NFL, which is like, you know, that's that's
a gold mine in the analytics world, in and the
scouting world. And so when he did it, it wasn't

(21:49):
unlike Billy Bean, who obviously came from a very autobiographical
place in Moneyball of having had been a five tool
guy who didn't live up to it. So he knew
that there's something else there, and Sean knew that there.

Speaker 3 (22:01):
Was something else there, and.

Speaker 5 (22:02):
So what he did was he took statistics.

Speaker 6 (22:05):
That are available to everybody and he kind of waited
them and he created what is essentially a failure index.
And so he looked at all of the quarterbacks negative
plays and essentially tried to figure out how often they happened.
And he did that first in twenty seventeen, and the

(22:26):
quarterback that it led.

Speaker 5 (22:27):
Him to was Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 6 (22:29):
He was going to draft Patrick Mahomes and then the
Chiefs obviously traded up with Buffalo, took him, and the
rest is history. And even though he coached Breeze for
a couple more years, then he ended up sat out
for a year, got with the Broncos. Russell Wilson wasn't
going to work out, so he kind of dusted off
that formula when he was going to draft a quarterback
in twenty twenty four and bo Nicks had by far

(22:52):
the best score of anybody, including Jaden Daniels, including Caleb Williams,
JJ McCarthy, anybody.

Speaker 5 (22:58):
And so I think that he felt that he had.

Speaker 6 (23:03):
Found a diamond in the rough in bo Nicks using
this formula and subsequent meetings with Bo and all of
that stuff. I just found fascinating that, like, look, no
one's saying that this is a silver bullet when it
comes to quarterback evaluation. But here's a really smart guy
who's done some things and he managed to find something
that really looked like it worked, and I detail it

(23:25):
quite a bit in the book.

Speaker 2 (23:27):
It's fantastic. The whole book is fantastic.

Speaker 1 (23:30):
If you are a sports fan, if you are a
fan of pop culture and how legends and myths are
made and born, if you are a football fan, inside
football fan, narrative, storytelling, football fan, just go buy the
fucking book. Go buy American King's Biography of the Quarterback.
Go to Amazon, go to Barnes and Noble, walk into

(23:52):
your local bookstore. It's by Seth Wickersham. Go buy it.
Seti Wickersham for joining us. Buddy good days.

Speaker 5 (24:00):
Great to see you guys.

Speaker 1 (24:01):
As always, quick eggs up to anybody playing fantasy football
this season. It is fantasy football time. The ultimate twenty
twenty five draftkit is here courtesy of our Fantasy Labs team.
That means our award winning team a Sean Croner and
Chris raybund have their rankings, tiers and cheat sheets ready
for you. To get them, you'll need a Fantasy Labs subscription,

(24:23):
and right now new subscribers can use code flex twenty
for twenty dollars off at Fantasy labs dot com slash flex.
Let Sean and Chriss make your fantasy prep easier. Use
code flex twenty for twenty dollars off at Fantasy labs
dot com slash flex.

Speaker 2 (24:41):
Simon, I hope you enjoyed it, Seth.

Speaker 1 (24:42):
I know you're a big fan of his work and
what he does, and the book is amazing, so I
hope everyone will check it out. We're going on to
the NFC North. Just a reminder, NFC North plays the
AFC North and the NFC East. This is the only
division in football with all four teams over eight and

(25:04):
a half wins and Super Bowl odds of thirty to
one or less. It is so loaded with coaching talent.
The three veteran coaches Matt Lafleur, Kevin O'Connell, Dan Campbell
in this division have covered on a regular basis. They
have overchieved, They have won with backups. They have lifted
their teams up through personality and through strategy. They are

(25:28):
the guys that we love. Now here comes Ben Johnson
adding them.

Speaker 2 (25:32):
To the list. They all have huge.

Speaker 1 (25:36):
Personnel gaps that make a lot of this impossible to
handicap right now. But Simon, we're gonna try anyways.

Speaker 2 (25:46):
Are you ready?

Speaker 3 (25:47):
Yes?

Speaker 2 (25:48):
I am ready, Chad, Yes, start with the Lions.

Speaker 5 (25:53):
Hello, de try.

Speaker 1 (26:00):
Vision plus one forty five Conference plus four hundred Super
Bowl ten to one win total ten and a half.
Can talk about losing Ben Johnson, can talk about losing
Aaron Glenn. I do think that the defense is better
by virtue of just being healthy. I think that they
were on a path to be a really dominant defense
last year and then they just lost everybody.

Speaker 2 (26:19):
They obviously have great.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
Talent across the board, whether it's Jamison Williams, Amon Ross,
Saint Brown, the two running backs, the tight end Jared Goff,
who I think is great. But here's the butt to me.
Frank Ragnow center, retired, Kevin Seitler guard signed with the Titans.

(26:42):
I have serious concerns about their offensive line, and what
I can't figure out is is it an overreaction to
downgrade then because of the loss of Ben Johnson, and
Aaron Glenn have the books already accounted for that in
the adjustment, ten and a half wins lower than where
they were last year.

Speaker 2 (27:02):
I can't get rid on this one.

Speaker 1 (27:04):
I feel like everyone is off the Lions, and that
makes me think, are we missing something?

Speaker 4 (27:09):
Yeah, And I remember we talked about the you know
season coming into this year, you know, our preview of
playoff teams.

Speaker 3 (27:16):
I forced him in there because I was I just
gonn't get over the talent level.

Speaker 4 (27:19):
And I think I've come full circle in the sense
that I'm even higher than I was a month ago
on this team, and it is because.

Speaker 3 (27:28):
Of the talent level.

Speaker 4 (27:29):
And you just go through their last couple of drafts,
some of their free agency moves, and it's just home
run after a home run. So this is a team
I was trying to be down on because we've seen
a time and time again these windows are so small,
and when you lose coaches, it's a big deal, especially
in offensive genius like they had in a defensive genius
and Aaron Glenn like, I think that guy is highly

(27:50):
talted as well. But when you really dive into it,
it's unreal the talent of this team. Maybe you know,
the best safety group in football.

Speaker 3 (28:01):
I agree with you. The weakness is definitely given that
offensive line. Like I'm glad you brought that up, because
I don't think.

Speaker 4 (28:05):
Enough people are talking about that with this team. To me,
that is an adjustment. But you know, we've already talked
about a couple of teams that have suspicious offensive lines.
And I'm a big believer in scheme and quarterback can
always overcome.

Speaker 3 (28:18):
Bad offensive line.

Speaker 4 (28:20):
Like, yes, there's gonna be players you'll lose out on
because you have such a bad offensive line. They can't
you know, adjust the blitz coming, different things like that.
But overall, long term, you know, if you have a
really good quarterback and really good weapons and an offensive scheme,
they will they will figure out how to move around
that offensive line and make it work eventually. So for

(28:41):
this team, I was going, I was looking for other
teams this division.

Speaker 3 (28:43):
Of de thrown this team.

Speaker 4 (28:45):
It's not that it's been bad for all these other teams,
but it all feels like they're all still a year or.

Speaker 3 (28:50):
Two behind this Lion's team that's so established. That's just
they know the deal. Like in that locker room, there
is zero doubt with this team they put all the
blame of last season onto those injuries, like we talked about,
which is totally fair. I think we talked last week
of a week before.

Speaker 4 (29:08):
I had them as our number one team coming to
the season last year, and my model has them at
number four despite losing all that offensive you know, minded
talent with Ben Johnson and offensive line pieces, They're still
my number two offense graded wise.

Speaker 3 (29:21):
So it's like, I don't know I wanted.

Speaker 4 (29:25):
I wasn't trying to be over reactionary, and I feel
like I was making them my seventh seed we did
our playffrank is now when I really dive into it,
I've been investing heavily into their divisional odds.

Speaker 3 (29:35):
I've been investing into their win total, win the ten
and a half.

Speaker 4 (29:39):
If people are so confused about it, I think it
is because of the coaches they lost, But I just
think it's part of the schedule, right. They have a
tough schedule to what they had last year. And it's
also because I think their division obviously is better in
many ways. But you know the fact that you could
get them right now as a dog at Green Bay
week one where in Jordan Love has surgery and is

(30:01):
non thrown him. He's not practicing. That's I mean, people
know secret I've been hammering that. You can tease it
up right now to seven and a half, like that's
that's exactly where.

Speaker 3 (30:10):
I want to be with this this Detroit Lions team.

Speaker 4 (30:12):
So yeah, people can probably tell I've I really done
in one eighty. I'm fully all in on this Lions team.
And it's just the talent level is just so insane
that even if they do take a step back offensively,
I think getting guys back healthy on defense will be
such a bump that you know, at worst, you can
see this team being eleven to five, ten and seven,

(30:32):
you know, like eleven and six, ten and seven, like
that is a possibility. But I don't see them missing
the playoffs. I don't see them being outside this divisional race.
So yeah, I know it's boring people. I know we're
going with another another team that won their division last year,
but it's just all these other teams are having drama
right now, and everything I've read in camp about this

(30:52):
Lions team is They've not missed a beat. The offense
is super high flying, defense is just a bunch of
nuts playing hard for they're head coach, I just everything
I read about it, it's like, all right, this is
exactly what you want to be reading about a contending
team heading into two weeks away from heading of the season.
So yeah, gimme lines over ten and a half. Give
me lines plus one forty five divisional odds.

Speaker 2 (31:14):
I'm so glad to hear you say that. I really am.

Speaker 1 (31:17):
Like I've been looking at this team and looking really
mostly at the numbers, and all of it feels like, well,
like I said when I was launching into this, like
too much of an overreaction, Like all of it feels
the overreaction of the public feels priced in. And you know,
there are teams that when they've gotten to the level

(31:41):
the Lions have gotten to and have.

Speaker 2 (31:43):
Had back to back heartbreak years.

Speaker 1 (31:46):
Don't forget they were ahead in that NFC title game
against the Niners two years ago. Last year, they were
clearly the best team in the NFL, and they basically
they lost about nineteen guys on their defense and not
insignificant guys for an insigate amount of time. They're best
guys for season long, and so teams can crater. You

(32:08):
get none of that from the Lions, like they seem
to be so focused, so mentally strong. We talked a
lot with Seth about sort of mental toughness, right, and
can Caleb Williams.

Speaker 2 (32:19):
Be that guy.

Speaker 1 (32:20):
You don't get the sense that Jared Goff won't be
that guy, or that there's any less of confidence in
Jared Goff from that team At this point, if you're
making a bed in the Lions, there's no on field
metric that's going to tell you what to do. You
were only betting on the Lions being a well coached

(32:41):
team with incredible talent and getting over the transition of
Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson. That's it, Like you're just
having an opinion. There's no number that can get you there.
It's just an opinion. I think I'm with you. The
more I have thought about it coming in, it was
weighing on me. Hearing you talk about it. Getting plus
odds on them for the division feels good.

Speaker 4 (33:05):
Yeah, And it has to be this year though, because yes,
I look at this division. It is so talented, but
it's young. And that's the Chico that have. They have
the veteran team and a very young division. But we
know the deal right, Like this is you know outside
that AFC West, this is probably the best head coaching
group in all football in this division. So you know,

(33:27):
Lions fans know, we know it windows closed very quick.
The window could shut this year, right, They could have
easily have a year from hell. I know people think
they had one last year. They were the one seed.
Like as bad as it was last year, that that
offense didn't lose any cogs in the machine. That was
the defense that was hurt. So that's that's my view
on this Lions team is that you know, if you want.

Speaker 3 (33:46):
To take them ten to one super Bowl, I get it.

Speaker 4 (33:50):
I just don't do it because I have I have
mixed feelings about golf in the playoffs, but regular season wise,
this just feels like another juggernaut. And you know I
would not be show me and you were talking week
seven and eight, and I have them moved up to
my number one team in my power rank into my
model just because that's if they do overcome with Chad.
Just talk about their head coaching problems and the assistance

(34:11):
and you know that's that's the question here. It's it's
all on Man Campbell, like he's no longer has the
OC the DC that you know people can rely on
it's it really is on his plate, and with a
couple of new guys. So that's like we just said,
that's the only hesitation a question about this team.

Speaker 3 (34:27):
It's not the talent. It's just simply the coaching.

Speaker 1 (34:29):
A little bit of a Chiefs vibe, right when the
Chiefs sort of get overrated, when the Chiefs get discounted
by the public, and all of a sudden, there's value
on them because you know, they lost this, they lost that.

Speaker 2 (34:42):
People looking for holes and mahomes, whatever it is.

Speaker 1 (34:45):
It has a similar feeling to me of the past
couple of years, like let's let's.

Speaker 2 (34:50):
Go all in on the Eagles, let's find a way
to love the Packers, et cetera, et cetera.

Speaker 1 (34:53):
By the way, breaking news from the second floor of
my house here on West Herford from Owen Noman, who
is texting me literally while being on the floor in
the room directly below mine. Daniel Jones has been named
as the week one starter for the Indianapolis Cults.

Speaker 2 (35:12):
The Anthony Richardson era will continue to have to wait.

Speaker 4 (35:16):
That's good for me, someone that wants the Colts to
be a team I can bet on. So yeah, that's
that's a big deal, right, that's I don't want to
say nail on the call for me Anthony Richardson, but
his career might be done in Indianapolis.

Speaker 1 (35:30):
Green Bay Packers plus two fifty in the Division Conference,
ten to one, Super Bowl twenty to one win total
nine and a half.

Speaker 2 (35:37):
So look, we've talked about this.

Speaker 1 (35:38):
I think we both bet the Packers at twenty to
one to win the super Bowl early in the offseason.

Speaker 3 (35:43):
No way, did I really?

Speaker 2 (35:45):
I think you did?

Speaker 3 (35:47):
Yeah, well, the only thing I have in my book
is your forty nine ers bet and rams.

Speaker 2 (35:51):
I could have sworn we bet the Packers too. I
have it in my mind.

Speaker 3 (35:55):
I can't believe. I don't know what was wrong with
me in February. That's crazy.

Speaker 1 (36:00):
The offensive line got better. I think the receiving corps
got better. I think their pass rush is middling at best.
But I still think, like you're skeptical to me, I
don't hate this because if Jordan Love is fully healthy
for Week one, it's a non throwing injury. I do

(36:22):
believe he'll be back and sort of at full capabilities
and he can play all season. Mattvil Floor is one
of those guys like we don't want to bet against him.
He makes really good decisions. He gets the best out
of his talent. I'm not afraid of putting money. I'm
not upset that I have Packers' Super Bowl tickets at

(36:42):
twenty to one.

Speaker 4 (36:45):
I'm just I don't know what's happened, but I'm out
on them. I know I picked them for playoffs. I'll
cole once ago. I just when I look at this division,
there's other teams I like better. With that, I think
I have better value and are better and are just
built better.

Speaker 3 (36:57):
Where this team.

Speaker 4 (37:00):
I don't trust the wide receiving corps. Like they talked
about working on the drops. Everything I've seen in preseason
and read from their beat riders is the drops have
continued throughout practice with all different players. Now they might
have nailed Golden, like this kid might be an absolute stuff.
That kud they took in their first round speedster with
good hands. That's a big deal. But my issue is
the Jordan Love part two where you know Jordan Love

(37:23):
had an incredible seven game run beat the Cowboys in
the playoffs. You know well deserved took the forty nine
ers to it right, like they were really in that
game and he got paid for it.

Speaker 3 (37:34):
And last year was.

Speaker 4 (37:36):
The season from hell, but their head coach held that
team above water, right. He was able to make it
work with a backup quarterback and got that team in
to be, you know, a seventh seed in the playoffs.
Like tons of respected Green Bay, and I think that's
why coming into the r had so much respect for
them and just what they did last year. But I'm
really diving into it. Their defense still has holes to it.

(37:56):
Even though they've drafted the defense and they've tried to
add to it and make a better through freegency, it's
still to me ranks you know, below the Bears, like
I have them fourth in this division defensive wise and offensively.
I feel like I'm putting so much into Jordan Love
taking that next step where he's shown me zero signs

(38:17):
of him taking that next step. And I threw out
last year because he played through about three different injuries
and now he's already banged up. His not throwing in
which again not a big deal, but him not practicing
and doing the things he needs to do these last
couple of weeks. It's a big deal to me because
this is the guy that needs reps. He is such
an unfinished product that he needs these number one reps
with these receivers.

Speaker 3 (38:38):
That have drop issues. So it's just because of this division.

Speaker 4 (38:42):
If this team was in the NFC South, I'd probably
would be all over them to beat the Bucks and
win the South. But when I really go through it,
their division is so talented, I just don't think that
it's worth investing in them anymore. Like to me, you know,
I wanted to be on this team to win this division.
I was really high on them, but it's just all
been so negative in camp. I'm just worried about them

(39:04):
heading into the season where a lot of this rest
on you know, Jordan Love and what he's going to
be heading in the season, if he's healthy or not.
So yeah, in three four weeks in the season, I
could change my team of this team if they come
out and they look right. But I think they're gonna
come out and be sloppy and they can't afford to
drop early games, right they come out of the gates Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, Dallas,

(39:28):
and then their bye week. So I know it doesn't
sound that hard on paper, that's that could be a
one in three start. Head into their bye week, and
that's my fear, where if they start one and three
in this division, I don't know if they can crawl
back because I am again so high on all these
other teams. So yeah, there had to be one team
I was gonna be negative on, and it's Green Bay.

Speaker 3 (39:48):
I just I've totally shifted my position on them. I
just don't like.

Speaker 4 (39:52):
Everything coming out of camp, and they're a team that
I feel like is another you know, could they get
to ten and a half eleven wins? Of course if
things break right, Jordan Love, they could easily get there,
But I don't think the lines up for them compared
to these other teams in their division right now. I
just it's it seems like it's a bad camp heading
into a season that could be a little rough for them,
where you know, they've had two year straight years making

(40:13):
the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (40:14):
Chad's that's a nice run. It makes sense they would
have a down year.

Speaker 1 (40:18):
Well, look, their rushing game would have to be almost
historic and back to back seasons, right, what they did
last year with Josh Jacobs and their ability to have
him control the offense created so much momentum for them
and masked a lot of issues. You talk about it
with the wide receivers. Obviously they had a lot of
quarterback injury issues. That is how they dominated the game.

(40:41):
But it's also because Matt Lafleur recognized this and recognized
that was the way schematically for them to take advantage
of their best chances to win. Maybe I'm over evaluing
how good a coach Matt Lafleur.

Speaker 3 (40:58):
Not though, like that whole thing you didn't will as
I'm with you, Chad, that blew my mind last year.
It was incredible genius.

Speaker 1 (41:03):
Yeah, I think he's to me, he's on par with
in terms of strategy Sean McVeigh Kyle Shanahan, Like, these
are guys who know their personnel and know the oppositions
personnel so well that they can steal two to three
games a year no matter who is on the field
because other teams can't match up with them as well.

(41:26):
And I do think I can't decide if it's saying
a lot or not saying anything to say that the
Packers have the fourth best defense in this division, because
I do think the three defenses we're talking about with
the Vikings and the lines especially, but the Bears are
are elevating into elite level. They were incredible in the

(41:47):
second half of the year last year, and everything about
their defense during training camp has been dominant, whether it's
been joint practices. We obviously saw it in the preseason
and I know they don't count, but they mean something
in the preseason. So interesting, I feel like we're if
you got to be down on someone because you can't

(42:07):
love everything level four.

Speaker 4 (42:09):
Yeah, So I think I can't believe IVE flipped on
them because I really liked them coming to the season.
But when it's all negative like this heading into a season,
rarely with a young team like this is that work
out for But like you said, Lafleur's the chef code,
like he could easily write the ship pretty easily, and
this is gonna be another dominant season for Green Bay.

Speaker 5 (42:28):
Right.

Speaker 1 (42:28):
But the truth there's everyone in this division is a
cheat code exactly.

Speaker 3 (42:32):
That's all. That's why it's so hard.

Speaker 1 (42:33):
Right, Okay, here's what's interesting to me. The Vikings plus
three fifty conference eleven to one, super Bowl twenty to one,
same as the Packers win total eight and a half.
So either at twenty to one, either the Packers are overvalued,
which you may believe, and the Vikings then are undervalued

(42:54):
at twenty to one. To me, that's how you have
to sort of it's binary in this case. I don't
think like the Vikings and the Packers are necessarily even here,
and I don't think that they're I think the Packers
are closer to being priced right at twenty to one
than the Vikings, who I think there's probably like there.

(43:15):
To me, they're overvalued, I mean to say, because I
don't think they should be twenty to one. We don't
know about JJ McCarthy. What we know is that last
year we did not believe in this team because of
Sam Donald, which was a mistake. We under underestimated Kevin
O'Connell because while he was coaching with the suspect quarterback

(43:39):
and the hardest division of football, they were in it
until the very last game of the year. So now
he gets the guy that he liked and wanted to
start last year, and he's proven he can coach basically
any quarterback. So why shouldn't we believe in their ability
to compete?

Speaker 4 (43:56):
Yeah, this is the team I flipped on. It was
another year where I was like, Okay, I'm happy to
sit it out. And see if JJ can take that
next step. And not that I've been bullied, but every
pro I talked to who knows what they're talking about
while valuing quarterbacks, they love everything about this kid.

Speaker 3 (44:14):
And you know they loved it in July.

Speaker 4 (44:18):
Here we are at mid August and the beat writers
are coming around on this kid and they're really loving them.

Speaker 3 (44:24):
And you're seeing it in practice.

Speaker 4 (44:25):
He's being more confident and consistent, which is exactly what
if you're a better and you're taking position on him,
that's what you're hoping for. But Chad's right, like them
being the same with Green Bay to me is crazy.
That means someone very smart with a lot of money
has moved this number because this was not twenty to
one that me and.

Speaker 3 (44:42):
Chad talked months ago about the Vikings.

Speaker 4 (44:44):
So you know, I look at this team as you
know last year we did get burned by Sam Darnold,
anyone that was like flexing. They're like, yeah, see, my
model predicted that your model is trash. There is no
way your model predicted Sam Donald being a fourth quarter
hero like he was last year. That's just something that
it's unpredictable. Now, if you said you based off their

(45:07):
defense and what their defense can do. I agree that
was something I definitely missed that. You know, the year
before we talked about two years ago, they had this
flukeish thing where they basically led the league in fumber recoveries,
and that was part of the reason. We're like, Okay,
the defense might be great under Brian Flores, but they'll
take a step back with the turnovers. And it didn't
happen right They had Sam Donald was able to protect

(45:28):
the ball and they were able to force a ton
of turnovers last year. This fighting's defense, So we can
agree this is part of their scheme with Brian Flores,
Like he whatever he's running, it values attacking the ball
and getting turnovers. So yeah, looking at this team, it's
to me the probably the best value bet in this
division because of the unknown of JJ McCarthy. And I

(45:49):
know it sounds crazy to do. He was one twenty
to one to win MVP. He's down to eighty to one.
I still don't hate it, and I know again it
sounds crazy, but you have to look from the standpoint
of in the NFL, this happens all the time, where
a guy misses a year or whatever, someone's ahead of him,
like Mahomes with Alex Smith and that year two when

(46:11):
they come in and start, there's no tape on them
to prepare. These other teams can't adjust to it during
the season and they can have an incredible season and
a line's up for them where they have Hockinson, Aaron Jones,
justin Jefferson, all these incredible weapons on offense with a
top five offensive line.

Speaker 3 (46:30):
That if JJ is legit, this kid, who all he
did in.

Speaker 4 (46:33):
High school is win if you go back and look
at his stats, just an incredible winner gets the Michigan
same thing. And our biggest question was can this kid
throw the ball?

Speaker 3 (46:42):
Like hardball? Wouldn't let him pass the ball?

Speaker 4 (46:45):
So right there, it's tons of red flags, and now
we're seeing with koc who's opening it up for him.

Speaker 3 (46:51):
The kids got hell of an arm. It's all about
the confidence and he can believe in his own talent.

Speaker 4 (46:55):
So that's why again I'm still all in an alliance
on this division because I still think this team feels
like a year away, But.

Speaker 3 (47:03):
I see the light. I see why pros.

Speaker 4 (47:06):
Have been hyping up this team and talking about them
for the last six months now. Because if JJ is
that guy and he can do what Sam Donald did
last year, adding his athleticism and you know, be naive.
Like that's the key too, is he doesn't know any different, right,
This kid is so naive coming to this league. He
hasn't gone through all the bullshit that Sam Donald did.

Speaker 3 (47:25):
That.

Speaker 4 (47:25):
I mean, we can both admit that caught up to
whatever that mental thing is caught up to Sam in
Detroit in the Ram.

Speaker 2 (47:31):
That mental thing is called ghosts and interior pressure. That's
all it is.

Speaker 4 (47:36):
We all have that inner monologue, like we all that
self doubt. And that's the hope with JJ is he's
the puppet, has never been hit. He's got the good life, right,
he's at the owner that loves him like he's only
been smoke blowing up his ass. Tot out Grady is, Hey,
we got rid of Sam Donald because this is your team.

Speaker 3 (47:52):
This is all you lead us to the promised land.

Speaker 4 (47:55):
So to me, it's lined up for this team and
at eight and a half wins, I hate it. I
wanted to fade this team so bad. I have to
take the over cause it's like if this kid's legit
with a stacked.

Speaker 3 (48:07):
Defense and a stacked offense.

Speaker 4 (48:09):
This could be a really really tough team to get out,
so again, brutally hard division.

Speaker 3 (48:15):
That's why I'm not going all in.

Speaker 4 (48:16):
Like to me, the biggest bet I've made is the
Lion so far went total wise, but it's like eight
and a half. They should just be the same as
Green Bay. They should be nine and a half. Like
they should not be eight and a half. There should
be a nine and a half win total because we've
seen time and time again like a team like them that,
you know what, they win fourteen games last year? Is
that really that big of a drop off going from
JJ from Sam Donald to JJ. I don't think there is.

(48:39):
I think it really is scheme debates. So last year
I believe it was fluky in some ways, but come on,
they were gonna get to ten or eleven wins, like
even with Sam playing out of his mind all this
fourth quarters. This was a complete team last year. And
you just said it. They've added pieces this offseason to
this team because they're paying a rookie quarterback, so it's

(49:01):
lined up for this team, right. They brought in Jordan
Mason to be their red zone running back as well,
So yeah, people can tell I'm I've been around a
lot of Viking truthers these last couple of months, and
it's it's been picking away me. I've I've been holding strong.
But once I've watched tape on him from their their practices,
and once I've read the be writers, It's like, Okay,
this kid, I can't keep denying it. He might actually
have the goods, because that's that's the fear is betting.

(49:24):
Like chat I talked about, this kid is totally unknown.
I'm betting on preseason hype, which is never good. But again,
I'm not heavily invested. I still think the Lines are
the best team this division. I just out of the
Green Bay Bears Vikings Trio. I do put the Vikings
at number two.

Speaker 1 (49:40):
I watch a lot of Chase Daniel, the ex quarterback.

Speaker 2 (49:45):
He's got a great YouTube.

Speaker 1 (49:46):
Channel where he breaks down quarterbacks and he does it
on TikTok too. The three quarterbacks he has spent the
most time on pointing out.

Speaker 2 (49:54):
Like, oh this guy's good.

Speaker 3 (49:57):
Are you ready?

Speaker 2 (49:58):
One cam Ward, which you've been on for months?

Speaker 1 (50:04):
Two JJ McCarthy, three, Caleb Williams.

Speaker 3 (50:11):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (50:12):
So let's talk about the Bears for a second, because
their division is four fifty Conference sixteen to one, Super
Bowl thirty to one, win total eight and a half. Reminder,
NFC North is the only division that has all four
teams with win totals of eight and a half or
higher and Super Bowl odds of thirty or shorter.

Speaker 2 (50:33):
That's how good people expect this division to be.

Speaker 1 (50:35):
It's a little bit like if it was last year
or two years ago that was the AFC North where
the Browns, the Bengals, the Steelers, and the Ravens were
all over eight and a half.

Speaker 2 (50:46):
So look the Bears.

Speaker 1 (50:49):
Anyone would argue highest ceiling, lowest floor because their combination
of new coach and relatively new quarterback is so unknown
and so loaded with potential and no QB. We just
talked to Seth about it has been examined more during

(51:09):
the preseason. You asked Seth two questions. They were both
about Caleb Williams's mental state. No quarterback has been more
examined during the preseason, for missing the net on accuracy
drills to looking like a Hall of Famer on an
opening drive of the preseason. I was in Vegas all
last week. I got home later in the afternoon evening

(51:30):
on Saturday night. Got home just in time to turn
on the Bears playing the Bills, and like I turned
it on at ten after eight, that first drive, the
crowd was so insane. Caleb was so good, dropping back,
quick decisions, laser throws, no hesitation whatsoever, and then that

(51:59):
defense and that crowd. It felt like it was Bears
football in January. Right, That's how starved people in Chicago
are for a team that can perform at a halfway
decent level. But just because Ben Johnson has been a
coordinator doesn't mean he will be a genius head coach. Right,

(52:20):
And as much as I think the defense has gotten
so much better in personnel, in coaching, and the offensive
line is so much better, Joe Toney, Drew Dahlman, I
really worry about this team because this sket is such
a mix of high and low. They get the Saints,
but they get the Eagles, they get the Giants, but

(52:41):
they get the Ravens. Then they get the Lions, Packers,
and Vikings twice, including opening the season with the Vikings
and Lions. And by the way, the team that crushed
their soul and mine on a live podcast, the Washington
Commanders in.

Speaker 2 (52:58):
Week three eight and a half, Like.

Speaker 1 (53:03):
Seems like a tall order for a team where if
they got to seven or eight, I think it would
be a massive, massive success.

Speaker 3 (53:13):
And that's what I happened. I had him at a wins.

Speaker 4 (53:15):
So I am towards the under here, but I didn't
bet the under. I'm honestly leaning towards the over just
because of what you talked about, that that Ben Johnson upgrade.
And we talked to the phone last night and I
told you what got me really fired up wasn't the
touchdown pass, obviously, was the misdirection and having your second

(53:35):
tight end, Clement running thirty yards down the field in
stride Caleb Hittingham, And like, that's that's what I want
to see out of a Ben Johnson offense, is the
misdirection and a thirty yard bomb down the middle tier tight.

Speaker 3 (53:46):
End, because that's what makes him so special. It's like
you need.

Speaker 4 (53:49):
Someone to think differently when everyone else is thinking the same,
and that's what makes Ben so unique and special. And
I told you a month ago it was going to
be ugly early on with Kayleb because Ben is such
a psycho and if you're not running it right, he's
gonna make you run it again. And again and again,
and you're gonna hate them, you're gonna resent them, you're
gonna get pissed off about it. But that's his style

(54:11):
because he wants perfection. And you know, Caleb, like we
talked about, the reason I was asking Seth so much
about KiB is because I'm a believer in Caleb. Like
I've followed him obvious since he's in high school. I've
heard about this kid in the DC area. I've been
following him this whole run, and every step of the
way I've agreed with the other pundits of now, this
kid is the once in a generational talent. He's one

(54:33):
of a kind, and he's coming to the league, and
there was flashes of it. People already are bearing them,
leaving them for dead, right, they already had. Jamie Daniels
is by far the best quarterback in that class, and
maybe Drake may is even better than Caleb Williams. And that,
to me is just the overactionary of d NFL and
the general public. And I always say, two to three years, right,

(54:55):
that's what you should give these rookie kubis is a
two to three year window before you really start making
the this type of proclamations. And you know, when I
watched Caleb, I saw the flashes of why he is
so great. But that's what I was asking Saith about
his mental makeup, was there's so many things he did
last year that, yes, the coaching staff failed him in
many ways, but Caleb was failing in many ways. And

(55:18):
we all can agree that we saw what happened after
that Washington game that they completely you know, caved in
on themselves, and that all really started with him. He's
just that's why I wanted to know if he can
he be a leader of men, because this isn't you know,
little kids shit anymore. Like these are grown as men
looking for him for leadership in these dark moments, and
can he do that and be that personality type?

Speaker 3 (55:38):
So you know, when I dive into your guys roster,
the talent is there.

Speaker 4 (55:43):
And I do think the defense right now is probably
ahead of the offense in some ways because you know,
they have attacked that unit in a lot of ways,
and you know, we still have questions about even though
they spend money and they've attacked the offensive line, there's
still questions about the offensive line in some ways. So
you know, not enough I can get at a training camp.
But I I if I'm a Bears fan, this is

(56:04):
excited as I've been since that Mitch Trubisky year.

Speaker 3 (56:07):
That year too, where you know.

Speaker 4 (56:08):
I think Chad even bet the fifty to one Trubisky
MVP odds because I get it though, Like that's the
trajectory of these quarterbacks. So that's what I think this
year is for this Bears team, right, this is the
year before it, right, this is going to be which
I just said, seven eight wins for this team this year.
I think that would be a great first year for
this QB coach Combo, and that should be the expectations.

Speaker 3 (56:31):
Now.

Speaker 4 (56:32):
You know, fans are always gonna want more. If you
guys start hot, right, Let's look at the schedule. If
you guys beat Minnesota, Detroit, lose a Dallas, and then
beat Vegas, you're three and one head into that bye week.
How do you not drink the kool aid? So that's
why I like it's gonna be tough with Bears fans
here where you know, the excitement might be so hard
to pass on because it's great that you have the

(56:53):
Vikings in Detroit early on, because there's gonna be no
tape on Caleb in this offense, Like, you could beat
these teams early on because there's nothing to really defend against.
They don't know how to scheme against it. But me
and Chad know this could easily go the other way
that Caleb could look totally fucking lost from the bullet
start flying, and after the first fifteen scripted plays, it
could get ugly really quick because this is a whole

(57:15):
new scheme for this Bears team with a young team,
So with all that unknown, that is why I like
this Bear's team. But you know, I'm just I can't
bet this over. I can't bet their divisionalids. I can't
really do anything with them here because it's like what
am I investing in. I get why there's more confidence
in these pros betting the vikings there is in this

(57:35):
Bears team because I think there's just a little fear
of Caleb Williams and his mental makeup right now by
most better. So it's I'm really excited to see what
this teams like and how Caleb, you know, handles this
year because to me, he didn't once go to the
media and talk shit about anybody last year, and that
was so impressive. To me, But Caleb, I know again,
Seth just said it because has been trained to how

(57:57):
to talk to the media since he was fifteen years old.
But that impressive, Like he had so many times he
could have broke and shifted blame to the ownership that
had coaches to all that bullshit last year, and he
just kept eating it, owning it and moving on to
the next year. So as we say here right now
in mid August, if I was a bear saying, I'd
be so excited about this upcoming season and the future

(58:17):
because you have all the pieces. You just need to
go out there and see him have the growing pains
this upcoming season. This is not super Bowl divisional win season.
This is growing pains. If you can get in as
a seventh or sixth seed, that's a great season. Such
a hard division. So yeah, really excited obviously about disbarassing,
but I can't get there in over eight and a half.

Speaker 3 (58:36):
That's just too much in this division.

Speaker 1 (58:38):
This is how I'm living my life right now, in
sort of existential dread on a variety of platforms, my
younger son leaving for college. I'm breaking down every I
walked the dog this morning and I was envisioning drop

(59:01):
off and realizing, oh my god, he's not gonna be
home for the first Bears game, and like, my dog's
taking a shit, I'm picking it up and I'm like
just dropping tears on the grass. And on Saturday night,
I watched that first Bears drive and I thought to myself,

(59:21):
what do we do after the first fifteen? It's exactly
what I thought, all right, because he didn't He obviously
wasn't in for the second drive, and so immediately I
thought to myself, I think we'll be fine.

Speaker 2 (59:33):
And by the way, it's like, I'm so all in.

Speaker 1 (59:36):
I'm like, I think we'll be fine for the first fifteen,
but I don't know what we're gonna look like after that,
when teams start to settle in and get a sense
of who Caleb Williams.

Speaker 2 (59:46):
Is, I don't know yet. So I'm psyched, but I
don't know.

Speaker 4 (59:52):
Yeah, I mean, I really that Monday night game, I
really cannot wait.

Speaker 3 (59:55):
Just the JJ gonna be so good. Yeah, Caleb Williams,
Like this might be the start of a ten to
fifteen year matchup between these two quarterbacks. So I just
these are the type of things is a football geek.

Speaker 4 (01:00:05):
I love to think about where it's just how exciting
this is that not that this is going to termin
either of these team seasons, but holy shit that Tuesday
morning in Chicago if they win or lose. That's that's
what I live for, like that type of stuff with
sports media.

Speaker 3 (01:00:19):
It's the best.

Speaker 2 (01:00:20):
Favorite bat from Simon, I think it's the Lions over
ten and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:00:23):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:00:23):
I was leaning.

Speaker 1 (01:00:24):
Packers before I sort of started doing my notes, and
then I started falling in love with the Lions at
plus one and forty five, and then the conversation from
you confirmed it. So I'm going with Lions plus one
forty five because I like getting plus money on this
team to win the division. The Favorites will, oh, I.

Speaker 3 (01:00:42):
Just want to throw in there. JJ McCarthy eighty to
one day fun long shot.

Speaker 1 (01:00:47):
The Favorites will return with our next episode on Thursday
on the Action Network YouTube page. When we talk AFC North,
Download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,
We was five stars.

Speaker 2 (01:00:58):
Say what do you want to see? Thank us aaf Until
next time, Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble
responsibly if you or someone you care about has a
gambling problem. Help is available twenty four to seven at

(01:01:18):
one eight hundred Gambler