In the first episode of "Sharp or Square", sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter give their best bets for all the big NFL Week 1 matchups including Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, and more!
02:00 - Intro
05:58 - Cowboys-Eagles
10:03 - Chiefs-Chargers
13:30 - Raiders-Patriots
23:37 - Cardinals-Saints
26:03 - Giants-Commanders
29:45 - Panthers-Jaguars
33:36 - Dolphins-Colts
36:33 - Steelers-Jets
43:45 - Buccaneers-Falcons
46:49 - Titans-Broncos
53:03 - Texans-Rams
54:00 - Lions-Packers
59:56 - Ravens-Bills
1:01:37 - Vikings-Bears
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharp or Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper
and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman.
I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
my Comfadre Professional Better, Simon Hunter, and us Simon Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I'm liking our new digs, Dude, look at us, brother.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
We got a brand new title, Sharper Square, brand new graphics,
brand new home, brand new YouTube channel. Go subscribe to
the Sharp or Square YouTube channel. You can get the
shows on YouTube in the afternoons before they drop into
audio feeds. That's important when getting the best of the number.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Again.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
That is Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe like the
video while you are at it. Of course, you will
be able to get the show in your audio feeds.
It's going to be dropped directly into the Hurt feed.
You can also subscribe to Sharper Square through Apple, through Spotify,
(01:14):
et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Dude, we loved our
time at Action, we loved doing the favorites, but I
got to tell you, I'm feeling re energized by this
new show. I could feel it yesterday on O a
call planning today's show. How are you feeling?
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Yeah, just insane timing. I'm sure you have the same thing,
which is a lot going on. And you know, now
we have a new show, we have week one, Brother,
and I'm really excited just to dive back in.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
Yeah, look for those for those who are new to
the show, and I don't know how many people there
are that are new to the show. I've been a
sports journalist and media exec for twenty five years. I've
been covering the gambling space for that long, starting with
my Simon as you know, best selling book The Odds.
I also helped launch the Action Network, where Simon and
I used to be until recently. Simon is professional better
(02:04):
with more than a decade experience betting the NFL. Together,
we take entirely different approaches to find consensus over the
course of the week of our shows for five games
that we want to put into our pick Them contest.
You can come along for the ride as we debate,
we cajole, we support, we ridicule. Tuesday shows air at
(02:29):
one thirty pm Eastern on YouTube, covers the entire slate
of games Thursday show also at one thirty, discusses a
narrower set of games as we see injuries get reported,
as lines start to move, as we get more intel
from the wise guy in professional betting community, we're zeroing
in on those. We will do a short show Sunday
mornings at eleven am for those who have been with
(02:49):
us for years. You know that, like Simon and I
will talk about the pigs that we ultimately decide to
settle on our five favorite picks for our contests on
Sunday morning, going to broad broadcast that conversation at eleven am,
so you're going to hear as we go back and
forth and try to keep ourselves from making bad, impulsive decisions.
(03:09):
And then we will do our wrap up show look
aheadline show on Sundays after the late afternoon games and
before Monday Sunday Night football begins. We'll do that seven
thirty pm Eastern again. All that's going to be on
the Sharper Square YouTube channel you gotta subscribe, and on
your favorite audio platforms. As you said, our lives have
(03:34):
been nutty the past few days. As we wrapped up
our time with Action, I moved my kid into his
dorm at Maryland. The very next morning, took a quick
trip to Costa Rica for the bookground reporting. But here
we are. We've made it. We've been waiting for the
season to start long enough. Let's get into it, my brother,
(03:57):
here we go Thursday night. Dude, crazy crazy, Dallas plus
eight and a half at Philly. You're wearing the green today. Look,
we talked a lot about this game back in the spring.
We loved the Cowboys. I bet the Cowboys at plus seven.
(04:19):
I bet the Cowboys on the money line at plus
two forty. We were bought in on Dak coming back
on a offensive line that was being healthier, a defensive
line that was being healthier. We thought there was general
anti sentiment, public sentiment, and on the Cowboys, and inflation
(04:41):
on the Eagles. Dude, in the last twenty four hours,
this line has gone from seven and a half to
eight and a half. What the actual freak?
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Yeah, it's it's pretty amazing that Parsons is worth two
points to this Cowboys stand two points.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
It's nuts. When I was working on the script yesterday,
I was like, all right, he's worth one point. That
is a ton. This line has steamed to two points.
It's freaking nuts. And I can't see any other reason
it's happening other than the Parsons news and people just
thinking there's complete and total chaos, you know inside the
(05:22):
Cowboys locker room right now. Normally that would be a
spot where we're even more encouraged to play the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
Pretty crazy that the bookmakers are kind of telling us
that Parsons worth two points and the fact that they
have to move it to protect against all these teasers, right,
That's the first thing jumped out to me is you know,
talk to a couple of guys.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I'm like, why is this moving so fast?
Speaker 3 (05:41):
And the reveal was the public came and the professionals
came in, and they had no other option to go
to eight and a half. So I mean, and like
you said, first first thought is I came with parts
is worth two points.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
So I'm sure that shock do you as much as
a shock today?
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Yeah, I can't. Like, we've been talking about the Eagles
all training camp and they've looked so good, right, Jalen
Carter has been as good as he has been in
his career in two seasons. And we both met him
twenty to one on defensive Player of the year, and
(06:14):
we like how Howie Roseman built that team, and we
like their draft picks, and they've gotten even better in
the defensive backfield and you've got Jalen Hurts as your
number two overall quarterback and all that's amazing. So I
do think there's been a lot of energy around the
Eagles that's been pushing this number up. Even before Parsons
(06:34):
was traded, what people thought he might have been continuing
to play with the Cowboys and just to hole that
would end aggressive aggressive move at eight and a half,
I don't know how we don't back the Cowboys here,
Like this number has kind of gotten out of control.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Yeah, it's a rare but tore right, it's dak as
an eight and a half point dog. So it's not
that it feels like a no brainer, right, there's reasons
it's this high, right, the larry and weakness.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
So this Dallas team was the defense last year.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
And yes they just traded for a dtackle and that's
a big deal to help that.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
But that's the question.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
But the Eagles have their own questions chat and that's
why I think there is value where their number two
corner is a big question market something they just traded
for three weeks ago. That's how bad their second corner
position has been. So you know, to me, this type
of game where we're really betting on matchups, and you know,
eight and a half, that's a lot of wiggle room.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
That's a lot of.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Wiggle room for a back door, especially where we know
the weakness of this Eagles team is probably gonna be
that secondary. So you know, for me, it's a lot
through banking on pickings and this new offense here. But
you know, Shaanheimer, he's been taking all of shit, but
I think that this is actually a nice spot for him,
and they're kind of a team that everyone's turning into
a joke and they're piling on and lucky for us
(07:47):
as now up date and a half. So I don't
know if we'll be in our contest, but I do
like this one. Just betting it at eight and a half,
it's a good number.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Simon new show, same contrarian views. I love it. The
uglier the better. There's gonna be a whole lot of
that today. Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers. This is
the Brazil game. Chargers are three point dogs, pretty much
painted three. It was Chiefs two and a half. It's
(08:16):
moved up a tick. I don't really have an opinion
on this one. To be honest, like mahonees it less
than three or as a dog, I'm still inclined to
take it. Even though it didn't work out for us
in the Super Bowl. The Chargers defense is fierce. I
think we're only guessing at this point about Kansas City
and how much they've improved their offensive line. I like
(08:39):
justin Herbert more than you do. As a contest play.
This is a pass. As a bet, this is kind
of a pass. I don't know if you have a
strong opinion.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
I do. I'm shocked you don't like this one.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
To me, it's the Reportuini right, it's Herbert as a
dog that might grow higher than three. At three and
a half, you have to audit anyone listening to this.
If you have at that, you can get three and
a half. I feel like this might have to be
an auto play for everyone out there listen to this show,
and it's really strictly based off of what we've seen
with Herbert. Herbert does not win these games. I agree
(09:10):
with Chad that if this is three or below, I
would not take them. But we see a time time again.
Anytime he's a three and a half point dog against
a competition with people have view better than him.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
He covers. He's a cover machine in this exact spot.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
So you know, just going through his career record, so
three and a half when dog or more, he's eleven
and two and one against the spread eleven to two and
one chet. So it's like, this is this is the
Herbert window where you want Herbert again. There's other spots
called back Herbert, but this is really ones that jump
out to me is when every time he is three
and a half dog or more, it's been a cash
(09:44):
cow again eleven two on one people.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
So this is one where I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
Like because it's in Brazil, I was a little a
little hesitant with it, but I think that actually benefits
this team more than with the Chiefs, and the fact
that it's an even playing field, right, there is no
home field advantage for the charters at home, let's be honest.
So to me, it's beneficial for them to be on
a neutral field like this is. And if you get
to that magic number, that key number, three and a
(10:08):
half with Herbert, don't think about it, just take it.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
He'll lose, he will lose, he will get outplayed.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
I'm sure in the fourth quarter, like we know the deal, right, cheack,
he'll have a ten point lead and he'll somehow they'll
lose by thirteen in the fourth quarter, right, And that's
just that's Herbert's problem.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
So you know, to me, I wouldn't touch the money
like maybe we will. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
It's a little early in the week, but just strictly betting.
Right now, I'm waiting for the three and a half
to fop. A couple of books have touched three and
a half. I've hit it, they've gone back down to three.
I'm hoping we get back there by game time because
again it's a standalone game.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
The public will be bet in this chief side.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
All right, Well, it's not at three and a half
right now. I love the logic. Get it to three
and a half and then take the three and a
half as it stands right now. It might get there,
but that's still a big move, and it you know,
for most of us mortals who aren't up in the
middle of the night watching the lines move from three
(11:02):
to three and a half, it might never be a
possibility if we can get it into contest play fantastic.
The three and a half is definitely on the table. Personally,
I feel like we're going to find so many games
that we like. I mean, we've got a full slate
that we like more. But I'm putting the Chargers on
the board for a deeper conversation when we get to
(11:23):
it on Thursday, see how things evolve between now and
then this next game. We've touched on this a couple
of times during the preseason, the Las Vegas Raiders visiting
the New England Patriots. The Patriots are two and a
half point favorites. This line has moved from three to
two and a half, and I feel like that's indicative
(11:45):
of how you and I have been thinking about the Raiders,
and of how the market is starting to think about
the Raiders, and the combination of Pete Carroll and Ashton
Gent and Brock Bauers and the idea that Max Crosby
is coming back, and like there has been so much
(12:06):
hype about the Patriots and Drake May and his development
and Mike Vrabel all of a sudden, like the professional
community is starting to think a little bit more about
who the Raiders are what they can be. We both
bet them as an over six and a half, one
(12:27):
of our best bets in our preseason betting menu at
two and a half? Are we still backing them?
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Yeah, Raiders. I'm wory chat We're too close. That's my
fear of now is that we are too close to it.
And this one also feels too easy, right, I had
a plus three, That's where I thought we'd be at.
This is another game where it's like I thought public
would just keep typing up Drake May, who I keep
saying he was one in nine last year.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
And this really does remind me of.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
The whole field discussion, Right, people are just basing their
prediction of this upcoming Sea on Drake mayoff potential, and
I agree it's exciting, right, they got Drake Man, they
got Vrabel, but that's something that's like season long potential.
This isn't week one potential. So I think we're both
in the st page of Pete Carroll. The veteran head
coach with a veteran quarterback, to me, is a much
(13:17):
better position than a young quarterback with a ton of
hype and the veteran coach and Verrabel where It's like
I like Verbel obviously for long term for the rest
of the season, but it's gone too far. And when
this was minus three, that felt way too much of
a respect to Vrabel in this Patriots team, right, that
was way too much respect. And so now most books
(13:40):
have been hit, like you just said, by professionals.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
It's down at two and a half? Are we going
to force this bet in? I don't think so.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Like to me, if this stayed three, it went to
three and a half, mean, Chad would really like this one,
maybe make it a contest play, but two and a half,
I'll still take Raiders Sunday most likely, even if it
doesn't get back to three. But I'm not going to
force this one year. We're gonna have ortun newis on
this Raiders team. It doesn't need to be weak one here.
I'm happy to be patient on this Raiders team and
pick spots later on.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
I am trying to teach myself this season. You know,
I've been reporting this book and spending a freak load
of time with professional betters and also doing a lot
of self scouting. I went through every pick I've made
on NFL sides since twenty seventeen I broke down when
I do well. When I don't do well, what I
(14:28):
fall prey to when I seem to win games? What
are the patterns? The best way to make money is
to not lose money, and so I'm trying to be
really disciplined about the picks I make and the numbers
I chase and not getting too excited about what I
think is the right side. If the number isn't matching
(14:51):
that at two and a half, it starts to make
me feel like I'm willingness to happen instead of being
thoughtful about the bet like it to get back to three.
I don't think it's going to get there.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Yeah, again two and a half. I still think it's
that's a fine number. Like I make this game Leary
one and a half, So I still think there's one
point value on this Raiders team.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
But you just nailed it.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
It's we're trying to make money long term here and
get the best of the number. The three is the
best number. Don't don't force don't force it here on
the two and a half because there's plenty of times
where this game does land on Patriots win by three.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
You know I'm doing there. Simon I'm taking a professional
attitude and a professional approach to my betting for the
twenty twenty five NFL season. I say all that because
I don't know. I might just toss it to the
wind on this next one, Cleveland plus five and a
half hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. Oh my god, Simon, I
(15:48):
know my lean without giving it away. My question is
what do we have to believe in order to buy
into the Browns?
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Simon says, give me the Browns.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Come on, come on it, dude. We got a whole
new segment on the show Chad Loves Love. Everyone knows
I'm a romantic. You know, I've been married forever, beautiful wife,
kids that I love who are no longer in the
house because they've decided to abandon us and go live
their lives and spend all their time going to fucking darties.
(16:28):
But you know what a darty is, Simon, A party
to day party. That's what in college they called They
called day parties darties. So all I'm hearing about this
weekend is Darty's at the University of Maryland campus. But
this was going to be my Chad Love's Love. Bet.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
I'll give it to you if you want.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
I got other ones I can fire on, but this
one jumped out to me just because I think this
number is moving.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
I may I might want it at some point, but
let me see how we go through the rest of
the board. Give me, give me your take, because like
I wanted to marry this bet.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
The reason I love this spot so much, that is
just this the Week one home underdog, and that's why
I love the Browns in this exact spot. So week
one of the divisional home underdogs are twenty three and
seven against the spread since twenty ten. They are ten
and two since twenty eighteen and eighteen and four since
twenty twelve.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
Thank you, Evan Abrams.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
I love that stat so much about the divisional home underdogs.
It's it's the money maker, right, It's the public overrating
road favorite that just happens playing against the divisional team.
We talk all the time divisional teams just play weird.
I know Joe Burrow actually has done pretty well against
the Browns here these last couple of years.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
This is a really bad spot, right.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
This is a fully healthy Browns team that actually believes
in themselves. This isn't this is Week ten Browns and
they were one and nine, we'd be betting this different.
This is even in their minds they can make up
maybe be a seventh seat. So to me, the Browns
gonna be playing hard and this number should be three,
three and a half.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
Public has bet this up to five, five and a half. Six.
We love that free value.
Speaker 3 (17:59):
So yeah, this is obviously one of my favorite bets
on the board, and I bet I've been betting all summer.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
Yeah, look, I think that where you're getting the Joe
Burrow effect on this game.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
Right.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
The Browns defense, we know is dominant. The Bengals offensive
line was one of the worst offensive lines in football
last year, and then the Bengals did absolutely zero. In fact,
they might have made it worse. So if there's a
worse number than thirty two, the Bengals are now the
(18:32):
negative thirty two, best worst offensive line in the NFL.
Then you've got all the drama with Trey Hendrickson that
even if he has signed his deal, what kind of
shape is he going to be in? How long will
it take him to get back into playing shape. You
had all the drama with Shamar Stewart, who I'm not
sold is really an answer to anything on the defensive
(18:54):
line for the Bengals. Their defense was terrible also, and
the best thing they've really done is Al Golden as
a defensive coordinator. So I just think there's holes all
over this team and they think they can be papered
over with Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase and T Higgins and
they can't. And they're going against one of the best
pass rushes and one of the best pass rushers in
(19:15):
a generation. Give me the Browns plus five and a half.
I can't see how this is not a contest play
this is a Simon says. It may be Hchad loves
love unless I can find something better to con vince
Simon to take. As as Simon says, old habits, die hard,
(19:36):
Go Browns plus five and a half. Arizona at New
Orleans plus six and a half. I don't really have
a ton of thoughts on this game, like maybe Arizona,
maybe the Saints get into our money line underdog round
robin when we talk about it on Thursday. It's been
about full point of line movement since line's open started
(19:59):
at five and a half, is going up to six
and a half? Really just bets coming in and money
coming in on Arizona. Get any thoughts here, Like Spencer
Rattler is the Saints starter. I just don't have enough
faith that the Cardinals can go on the road and
win by a touchdown. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
I agree with your point that this number just feels
way too big at this point and that they're they're
trying to get us to bet this Saints team.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
So I'd rather just go the other way.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
I'll take Kyler first half, and you know, I assume
that you'll somehow falter this in the second half and
they'll somehow cover this number because this will be one
of the book's biggest needs.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
Right. No one's betting the Saints. No, no one is
going in there and.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
Taking a position, and everybody's probably thrown in their four
five team teaser on the back end this Cardinals team.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
And this is to me two fishy. I don't know
why they would do that to me.
Speaker 3 (20:51):
I trusting Kyler at this big of a number, especially
in Week one, just not a smart bet.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
It's way too big.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
And you know, if we had I would say if
this got up to seven, I would be more confident
in playing contest or thinking about putting injur just because
at that point that's way too much respect to a
Cardinals team that doesn't deserve it, and disrespect to a
Saint thing we talked about. They're a veteran team, right,
They're just really bad at the quarterback position. So the
(21:19):
value there is not there for me yet to play
the Saints team. Like I said, I feel stafer taking
collar first half, but the.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
Books will get me there eventually.
Speaker 3 (21:27):
If this reaches seven and seven and a half on
Sunday morning, I'll be tempted to throw some money in,
but no, like this is not gonna be one of
our five, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
I am so bad at making bets on Sunday morning.
In terms of my historical record, almost all of my
wins come the first three days of the week. Every
game I bet in the first three days a week,
I do so much better than I do when we
get to Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I need to be
disciplined this year. I can't be making silly bets on
Sunday morning because I'm getting excited about a half point.
(21:58):
Discipline and simon, that's what I do. New York Giants
at Washington Commanders, the Commanders are now six point favorites. Look,
we've talked about this all season in a previous iteration
of our show. We don't love the Commanders, like under
nine and a half wins was one of my favorite
(22:20):
season win total bets. We expect some natural regression, not
a knock on Jane Daniels at all. It's just the
natural order of things. The problem is, I think the
Giants are trash, and we went through their schedule. We
could not find five wins to get them over four
(22:41):
and a half wins. I know this is a big
divisional dog, but this is a to me, a little
bit of a different scenario because I do think the
Commanders are better overall than say the Bengals, and I
think that the Giants traveling makes this a little bit
(23:04):
sketchier to me. It has dropped from seven to six
and a half to six, so we know wise guys
have been coming in on the Giants. We've missed the
best of it.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Yeah, I actually love the Commanders here, and I talked
to those wise guys. I get their reasoning for it.
My pushback against them is that Commanders with Jane Daniels
is the perfect type of quarterback to neutralize a good
defensive line like they have, right.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
And you know, saying which you want.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
Last year in the NFC Championship game, they didn't lose
because of Daniels against that Eagles team, Right, that was
not on him. It felt like it was a lot
of the other stuff where k had guys are around
him fumbling the ball and his defense not be able
to get stops. You look here in this matchup, that's
the strength of this Giants team is that D line. Again,
he's a perfect guy to neutralize that. They're gonna be
able to get him outside the pocket and attack that
(23:54):
D a lot of different ways. So this numbers move
to five and a half Chad so like, I really
like it. But it's very interesting that that much respect
and professional money has come in this heavy on this
Giants team moved to this much. So to me, they're
kind of banking heavily here on Russell Wilson and him
being you know, much more consistent. And they're also looking
(24:15):
at the history of the Giants, you know, for the
Daniel Jones there they owned this Washington team.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
I just think that's totally off basis.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
Those are totally two different teams, and this Washington team
has a totally different identity. So I know that last
year they did play them tough, and I remember we
were we had the Giants in that game. The Giants,
if they just had simply had a kicker, would have
probably won the game outright. So I get while they're
going back to that tape and thinking that the Giants
have the players to make me get this type of
stops and be able to keep them in this game
(24:43):
and keep this as a close one.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
And I can't believe.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
I don't love them as a divisional road dog here,
but I think she had nailed it.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Like this number moved too much. I think it could
literally land right on sticks.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
And to me, if you're getting the five and a half,
which a lot of books have right now, that's the play.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
That's the move for me on this Washington team.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
All right. So I'm putting this on the board as
a revisit because I agree with you. At five and
a half, it starts to all of a sudden become
wait a second, what Like Russell Wilson hasn't been effective
in two years. This is not a team that has
proven it can execute against a home team and a
(25:19):
guy who's already a top ten quarterback.
Speaker 2 (25:23):
Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson two and six against the spread
and week one.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
Yeah, it's gonna be time again to pass that night
at less than six. But I'm curious, like you know,
we'll do. We'll get some calls from wise guys on Thursday,
and so we'll we'll see what some of the thinking
is on that and if they can change our minds
on this game. Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars. Dude, Jaguars
(25:53):
are three and a half point favorites right now. We
love the Panthers always, full stop. This is a Carolina
Panthers podcast. We loved their season win total of over
six and a half. We like their offensive line enough.
We loved how Bryce Young was a gamer the second
(26:14):
half of last year. He went seven and two against
the spread, four outright wins. He was just much much
better as he made decisions. He was extending plays, helping
the scramble rate jump from twenty five percent to forty
seven percent. And it wasn't just because of us offensive
(26:34):
line troubles. It was him moving in the pocket to
make plays and then using his accuracy on the run,
and that's why we liked him. What's interesting to me
is the Jags looked like trash during the preseason for
parts of it. This line has moved from just in
(26:55):
the last twenty four hours from three to three and
a half, so it's moved off a key number. Enough
money has come in the bookmakers had to move it
off three. What do you think is going on here?
Speaker 3 (27:04):
Yeah, just like you were saying, it's the Liam Cohen hype, right,
this is all Jaguars love. It's all good right now, right,
everyone's paying the rosiest picture.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Look what you did with Baker. He'll come here. Save
Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 3 (27:15):
Hey, Chad, you know Trevor Lawrence was eight and three
at one point and one of the best quarterbacks of
football before you got a slight injury. And now it's
been two years of just absolute hell for that Jaguars organization. Yes,
we do know, and I just think it's a lot
of love for this Jaguars team that, yes, to have talent,
but they have many, many weaknesses across the board on
this team, and lucky for them, I don't know if
(27:38):
the Panthers can to exploit those weaknesses. Right who on
that pass rush of the Panthers is really giving you
scare if you're a Jaguars offensive line, not really.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Much there at work with.
Speaker 3 (27:47):
So you know, we'll bet to three and a half.
That to me is the plus three and a half.
That's where the value is on the Panthers. But I'm
not in love with this one. It feels like a bet.
I'm forcing in there just because it feels like a
little bit of an off number. And you know I
had this number right at three. So yes, the value
is on three and a half. But I assume I'll
skip pulling this on the contest and maybe we'll just
(28:09):
get that money line around Robin come Thursday.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
Well, I'm putting it on the list because maybe things
will change over the next forty eight hours. I want
to love the Panthers so much here, I feel like
it would be irresponsible to make the m a Chad
Loves Love bet right now, because that would just be
torture for all of our listeners given our history with
(28:35):
the Panthers. However, Miami visiting the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts
are one and a half point favorites painted one and
a half across the board as my close friend Billy
Joel likes to say, for the longest time, Oh did
(28:58):
you see that documentary?
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Now, I must have missed that.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
It's amazing. It's an HBO Max five and a half
hours of Billy Joe, who is just straight crazier than
you would think. But this line has been at one
and a half the entire summer. We're going to completely
disagree on this one. I like Miami. You're gonna like Indy.
If tu A stays upright against a mediocre to bad
(29:23):
defense that doesn't have a great pass rush, that's just
a clear advantage to me. And I know like you
are so off of Miami, and I know you like
Indy even more now that we know Daniel Jones is starting.
I'm not seeing it.
Speaker 2 (29:40):
Again, Chad. These are all season long thoughts.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Don't try to put me into a corner here, Okay,
I'm talking season longer. Yeah, so I get the Miami
love to me. I'll just tease him. I'll get this
up to seven and a half. That's where I'm coomfortable
because Miami is heavily heavy the public side. It's for
good reason, right, I think anyone unless you've been on
(30:05):
Mars Nos this Colts team has been trash in Week one.
Doesn't matter if it was Andrew Luck or Philip Rivers,
it's always been bad. And I believe they're two and
fourteen straight up and against the spread in week one,
two and fourteen, TUA pretty good, pretty good Week one.
(30:27):
Don't know if you've seen his stats. He's actually two
and oh straight up and against the spread in week
one on the road in his career. I think he's
four to oh in his career and week one straight up,
So yeah, two obviously, week one on the road in
the hostile environment, he's done really well.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
I get Chad's love for it. I'll join them, but again.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
In a teaser, I would not play the one and
a half just because it just feels way too risky.
It just both these teams, Like you just said, Daniel Jones,
I don't know what I'm getting, but I know this
can be better than Anthony Richardson in this exact spot.
I know I hate saying they're due, but my god,
are they du Chad to cover a week one spread
(31:09):
two and fourteen? I can't ran my head around the
last sixteen years. So yeah, Miami, I'm not letting you
put them in our contest. It's too public, but for
a teaser, I like it seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (31:20):
Right until that last comment, I'm like, all right, I
feel like we got a chance here with Miami, and
I agree it's it's so public as with a nod
to our new show. It's pretty fun square and I
love it so much. If you hadn't have just said
(31:43):
all that stuff, I might have to marry this.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
I could get there because then the biggest weakness of
this cold seams are secondary.
Speaker 2 (31:52):
The biggest strength of Miami's.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Their passing attack, right with Tyreek and Water, who are
both healthy right now, So I get what your love
for it. I'm just man, why is this number not
moved at all? And it's just been taking money, taking money,
taking money for the last five months, So it's that's
what's scaring me, brother.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
Right, Like, what's the logic here? Bookmakers know they're lopsided
on Miami, so why are they not trying to change
anything at this point? No one is biting all right,
all right, I still got to commit to somebody. I
got to fall in love. I got to marry someone
I haven't yet other than the Browns, And you came
(32:32):
in undercut me classic Pitt at New York Jets, New
York Jets plus three. I know you want to bet
the Jets. I don't even have to hear you explain it.
And I feel like they've got looked. They've got Quinn
Williams dominanant defensive tackle, potentially dominant corner, and Sauce Gardner
(32:53):
if he can return to what he was in his
rookie year. It was a good defense before Robert Sala
got fired and the creatored and we loved what Aaron
Glenn did with the Lions when they were literally down
to guys off the street. We think he can motivate
this team, but we know the ceiling on Justin Fields,
(33:15):
and the Steelers know the ceiling on Justin Fields. So
to me, if I think about this as a matchup
and if there's a play like an advantage in the handicap,
I don't really see it. Like I don't think Aaron
Rodgers is the Aaron Rodgers of old. I think he
had a couple good years with Lafloor, Matt Lafloor because
(33:35):
he listened to Matt Lafloor, But he had a crappy year,
mediocre year last year on a garbage situation. Now he's
got a relatively conservative offensive coordinator. You say you don't
know what you're getting in Miami and Indy. I don't
really feel like I know what I'm getting in this
(33:56):
game and the key players and quarterback of Justin Fields
and Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Yeah, you know me too well, Chad.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
I love the Jets and it's I love that it's
season long though. Once again, I don't need to force
a week one, but I'm just gonna play the three.
You know me, it's it's Tomlin on the road as
a favorite. Is this not a spot we always fade
him in this exact spot, like this man hates to
have love, he hates to be loved in this exact spot.
So to me, it's a no brainer where you know,
(34:25):
I like to the Jets. Identity right now to the
general public is a little unknown where when you listen
to insiders you can get a really good read on
this team where we know what they're gonna be right.
They're gonna be an extremely run heavy team and I
think they will unleash Fields here in this type of
matchup where you're getting the read option and he'll be
carrying it pretty heavy against his former team. Again, this
(34:45):
is gonna mean a lot. Then this is a team
that had him in house and let him walk. You
know that's gonna that's gonna be on top of his mind.
And you know, Aaron Rodgers obviously a revenge game. It's
it's not a great matchup for him, right. This is
a defensive line that gets out for the quarterback and
it's going to be keep on moving him off his spot,
especially up the middle, which we've seen him struggle with.
Speaker 2 (35:06):
So yeah, just.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Really comes down to the number, Like if this was
one and a half, I really wanted to be on
Pittsburgh never got down even close to It's been three
two and a half almost every book.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
So at three, that's a Jets number. I'll take it.
Speaker 3 (35:19):
But like Chad said, no need to force this one
another game where it's like I'm Bennett because it feels
like this is what I do, taking these ugly home
dogs in this exact spot where no one believes in them.
But it's also a team that we just don't know
much enough about this Jets team that my only rule
advantage here is that I think they're going to be
able to run the ball pretty well against this Pittsburgh
(35:39):
team the way they're going to be able to run block.
So yeah, really excited for this Jets team this upcoming season.
But I will make Chad taket here, dude.
Speaker 1 (35:47):
We got a couple of games coming up that I
actually am pretty sweet on and I'm excited to get
your opinion. It's not Tampa Bay Atlanta Atlanta's two and
a half. It's an interesting game. Like I mentioned the
Saints Cardinals game that that game had moved a full point,
So is this one not A ton of games have
moved that much. It's one of the few that has
(36:09):
moved sort of that much. To be honest, I'm not
sure I understand the move which has happened over the
excuse me, it's happened over the past week. I kind
of lean Falcons at this spot. In this number. You know,
we have Baker's the top ten QB, but a lot
(36:30):
of that is based on what he did last year,
and that was predicated on increased screen passes to help
him manage the pressure. His EPA expected points added on
screens was the second highest the past four seasons, behind
just Patrick Mahomes. Like it helped him decrease his sack rate.
(36:53):
New offensive coordinator. Again, we don't really know how they're
going to utilize Baker in a screen game. To me,
it's really about Penix. Can Pennix be protected? Can he
stay as the football experts like to stay, like to say,
on schedule, Because if he was on schedule, meaning clean
pocket throwing in rhythm, only Lamar Jackson was better in
(37:19):
those scenarios. And when he needs to run and that's
with the minimum of one hundred passes, when he needs
to scramble and he's sort of out of sync, he craters.
So we kind of need to know is Michael Pennock's
going to get protected to feel confident betting them as dogs.
Love the weapons though, love the weapons, don't love this
(37:42):
game yet.
Speaker 3 (37:44):
No, this is I had to go some chalk somewhere, people,
This is where I'm going chalk. So I'll take books here.
And now that it's still under three, I think that's
a good number. But I'm going to read this line
again because this is why I'm so hesitant to really
hammer this one, and you know, jump on the table
for a week when Division home under dogs twenty three
and seven against the spread since twenty ten, so.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
It is technically a spy. You should be taking Atlanta.
Speaker 3 (38:06):
But I think they're getting too much respect here and
too much disrespect to a Bucks team that you know
they're highly talented. And last year against his exact Atlanta team,
they let a couple of games get away that they
shouldn't have, So I think there would be a.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
Highly motivated Bucks team here.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
And I like this spot and a key number under three,
So I get the Atlanta love. The trends point to
it as well. I just I can't He's lost key
guys to the offensive line, and Penis cannot be moved
off his spot. He struggles when he's moved off the spot,
so I just can't get there with Penicks.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
I'm back in Slanta.
Speaker 1 (38:36):
Team Simon, You've said it a couple of times. This
show you feel good about a team season long, but
it doesn't necessarily mean you like them. This weekend, Tennessee
is at Denver. Denver is a seven and a half
(38:57):
point favorite, along with the Cowboys and in the Eagles.
This is the biggest number on the board, and this
until the past twenty four hours, it's the only number
on the board that it touched eight with the Broncos,
and then there was a little bit of buyback on
the eight by professionals and it went back down to
seven and a half. Look, Denver's defense is elite like.
(39:21):
Depending on the category you want to focus on, it
could be the best in the NFL. In this case,
I want to focus on pass rush, which it was
the best in the NFL. And they have the defending
defensive Player of the Year and pascertain at defensive back.
We like the Titans season long, and we like what
we've seen from cam Ward. You know, Chase Daniel, the
(39:46):
former quarterback. I love his tiktoks and he has been
loving cam Ward. Don't laugh at me. I can like
TikTok and he has been loving cam Ward and how
he's been developing and what he's seen in the preseason.
Number one overall quarterbacks past sixteen one in fifteen against
(40:06):
the spread in their first game. It's been twenty three
years since the number one overall pick at quarterback even
won his first start. That was David Carr with the Texans.
Believe it or not, Simon I covered that game for
ESPN the magazine. I know we love cam Ward I'm
super high on their offensive line. We love Bill Callahan.
(40:26):
They signed the dude Kevin Seitzer from is that his name?
From the Lions. I feel like I want to be
on Denver here.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
Chad, I can't believe you're saying that.
Speaker 3 (40:38):
I cannot believe you liked them the spot where this
is you don't even have to be in a sports
but I know this is a terrible spot.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
So what did what did you know bo Nicks do
that was so historical last year?
Speaker 3 (40:50):
He never lost or didn't cover as his favorite last year,
I believe he was eight and oh or nine to oh,
something insane like that. On the flip side, we have
a Tennessee team that I went two and fifteen against
this part, I believe last season. So just off that alone,
you are getting what two three free points? Just off that,
(41:10):
off the public perception of that right there, which is
like a cash cow in Denver to all these betters
and Tennessee an easy faith for all them, where it's
it's a whole new world, like this is totally different.
This is not the same Tennessee team and it's not
the same Denver team. Like again, as much as we're
all painting a rosie pitcher of this Denver team, and hey,
they might win this division. This is a tall task
(41:32):
to ask them to cover this big of a number
at home in Week one, with all those expectations and pressure,
playing against a Tennessee team that they have no worries.
And Chad nailed it. The fear here is the rookie
quarterback on the road in their first start. So survivor pool, Yeah,
Denver lay up week one? Right, I think rookies since
the nineteen seventy merger eighteen twenty one straight up in
(41:56):
this exact spot on the road in their first start.
Speaker 2 (42:00):
I mentioned the last.
Speaker 3 (42:00):
Rookie quarterback to win, you know, tons of respect, David Carr.
Kaylyn Williams did it last year, right, kayleb Williams won
as a rookie in his first start, which was a
really big deals. So number one pick it just doesn't happen, right,
The number one picks tend to lose.
Speaker 2 (42:16):
We've seen historical data.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
So once again it's another nice spot to take Denver
and survivor. But against the spread, it feels like a horrible,
horrible spot to back Denver. And as bad as these
rookie quarterbacks are, covering the spread on the road. They're
thirteen or fourteen against the spread in Week one on
the road, so you know this isn't that terrible spot
against spread. It's just a bad spot for him to
(42:37):
win outright. So people out there tease Denver. I think
that's a great one to throw in there. I just
cannot see them losing this game. All this stuff points
to Tennessee team losing this game but covering seven and
a half. There's eight and a half's out there. I
don't know if you've seen it. There's been eight and
a half's popping up in a couple different books, and
eights popping up all around.
Speaker 2 (42:55):
So you know, to me, this is a.
Speaker 3 (42:58):
Type of game where it's like the closer we get
and if our contest as this eight and a half,
how do we not play it? That's an insane number
when all the atstup points in this Tennessee team being
heavily underrated, Denver being heavily overrated based off last.
Speaker 1 (43:13):
Sear I'm not even thinking about last season, dude. I'm
only thinking about the situation for a rookie quarterback going
against one of the best defenses in the NFL and
one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and having
to play in altitude in an entirely different situation, that is,
even from what he's been practicing against and what he
had in the preseason. I think the Broncos might kill them.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
That's fair. Again, that's fair.
Speaker 3 (43:39):
This Tennessee team has a lot of issues, but I
still think a lot of their problems last year just
went back to the quarterback position, and people are overrating
too much about their defensive strugglies.
Speaker 2 (43:49):
Their defense on Tennessee is not as bad as you think.
Speaker 3 (43:51):
I think they might give some problems to bon Nicks
and this Deptember offense. So I get you where your
love's coming from, Chad, but I just think it's way two,
way too high to be bet in this one.
Speaker 2 (44:03):
Seven and a half is high.
Speaker 1 (44:04):
Oh look, we're we're going to do our annual weekly
head to head on Thursday on Thursday show. So it
feels like this game might be in contention that one
of us might pick Ford and one of us might
pick against it.
Speaker 2 (44:25):
I don't need to I wonder which ones which one.
I wonder which one sharper square.
Speaker 1 (44:29):
Yeah, exactly, we'll see. We'll see exactly. I don't know.
I already I'm already against the name of this new show.
I feel like, by the way, we need a new
bet category called S O S because you know, that's
the name of the show, but also it highlights an
emergency situation, and I feel like we're going to run
(44:52):
into some of those over the course.
Speaker 2 (44:53):
I'm trying to save you. Right now, you're fighting me.
That's all I'm gonna say.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
I can't be saved.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
You can't. You got to do You're gonna go into it, don't.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
I am just a lost cause there's just gonna be
times where I can't help myself. Houston at the Rams
Leen Rams moved actually in the last twenty four hours
from two and a half to three. No strong opinion here.
Speaker 2 (45:14):
Yeah, let's keep it moving.
Speaker 3 (45:15):
I'm with Chad like I want to be on the RAMS,
but it's just there's just so much little to go
off here. And yeah, to me, it's under three. That's
a good number. I'll take the Rams, but I'm with
you chat. Maybe all more confidence come Thursday, but right
now I have again, I.
Speaker 2 (45:30):
Have thousands of bets.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
People for a week one you wouldn't want to see
my binder filled with tickets right.
Speaker 2 (45:35):
Now, this game is so small.
Speaker 3 (45:38):
I bed so little on it because of all the
injuries to Houston's team, all the injuries to this Rams,
and all the questions around Stafford.
Speaker 2 (45:44):
So yeah, two and a half. I'll take the Rams.
I'm with Chad. I just don't have a real read
on it. As we said, you're on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (45:50):
Guess what are you ready?
Speaker 2 (45:53):
Yes, sir.
Speaker 1 (45:56):
The biggest move of the offseason, Detroit Lions are head
into Green Bay. They were one and a half point favorites.
The line moved a month ago to favor the Packers
of one and a half. Since the Micah Parsons news,
(46:18):
it has gone to two and a half. Like on
our old show, we talked about liking Detroit more and
more as training camp went on and finding value and
wanting to like them at plus one forty five to
win the division again. This was all before the Micah
Parsons news and we started to like them as one
(46:40):
and a half point docs. Now they are two and
a half point docs thanks to the Micah Parsons trade.
Again a point of value being ascribed to Micah Parsons.
Let me tell you a story, So Micaeh Parsons was
traded at about five o'clock on Thursday. I went back
(47:02):
and I looked to see when the exact line moved happened.
It was five oh seven pm at that time. I
had literally just said goodbye to my son after we
had moved him into his dorm, and we were walking
away and we are like barely functioning walking to our car.
(47:28):
Our son and his new roommate were, you know, probably
fifteen steps ahead of us. We just happened to be
walking in the same direction, but they were ahead of us.
And his new roommate is a huge Packers fan, and
I had been giving him shit the entire day that
we were moving in about the Packers, right, And as
we are all walking away, my son, who's ahead of us,
(47:50):
turns around and says to me, Dad, the Packers just
traded for Micah Parsons. This was just after five pm.
And the roommate starts going crazy and saying wildly inappropriate
shit to someone who is an elder. But I look
(48:11):
at the when the line move happened five oh seven pm,
you can think like exactly when Persons was traded. That's
when the line went from one and a half to
two and a half, Simon, I'm going to tell you
right now there are reports that he's going to need
an injection to play. Chad loves Love, Chad loves the
(48:40):
Detroit Lions at plus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (48:42):
I will say this, Chad, I want to hate it.
I won't lie to you. I do want to hate it.
Speaker 3 (48:47):
I want to go against it because this is going
to be the most lopsided game and I feel like
it's such a sucker where I have I probably have
fifty teasers and about half of them have the lines
in there at seven and a half and now it's
eight and a half. Now, like it's even better to
throw them in a teaser. But if you're going off
just straightly against the spread, this is why I love
(49:08):
Lions with you, and I'm like, again, it's hard for
me to go against green Bay in the spot because
this is such a green Bay spot. But Dan Campbell
eleven and three against the spread in September, that's pretty
incredible golf our guy eight to oh against the spread
Week one, eight and oh against the spread, and even better,
(49:31):
he's four and oh straight up and against the spread
with the Rams, and he's four and oh against the
spread with the Lions. So it's like this guy just
does it doesn't matter if he was with the Rams,
he came to Detroit and they were terrible when he
came here, and he's still been a covering machine in
week one.
Speaker 2 (49:46):
So I don't get it. I don't get it.
Speaker 3 (49:48):
I dove into the numbers and it's like who is
because again I know some professionals who have put six
figures now onto the Screen Bay team and this was
before the Parsons news, Like they've been taking a position
for months on this Green Bay team, even with all
the you know, Love hurting his non throwing hand and
you know, all the wide receivers being hurt. Again, Golden's
(50:09):
look great in camp for them, but all their other
receivers around him have been either injured or falling apart.
I couldn't be lower on this Packers team coming this
season because I was high coming in and it was
just so negative in camp. It really made me doubt them.
But it really is the little floor factor, right. I
think that's why people love this Packers team so much.
In the spot where the Packers they're fifty to three
(50:30):
against the spread since twenty nineteen in their first three games,
they're seven to zero against the.
Speaker 2 (50:36):
Spread in that stretch at Lambeau.
Speaker 3 (50:39):
So it's all there, like the trends are telling you
that this is a spot to back this grave Green
Bay team at home, But we just went through it.
This Lion's team with Campbell and Golf had been incredible
in September and especially in the Week one.
Speaker 2 (50:55):
So man, this is a tough one.
Speaker 3 (50:57):
I'm going to support my guy here, Chad, even though
it feels inanely trappy.
Speaker 2 (51:01):
I'm with him.
Speaker 3 (51:02):
I think the books you're overacting too much. The loss
of the coordinators. The town level is still very high
for Detroit, and you know we'll see like Green Bay again,
they might be better down the road. But that Parsons thing,
I'm with you. That through a real wrench to those
sole thing where it's like he's getting a shut in
his back before this game.
Speaker 2 (51:19):
So I'll join I'll take that two and a half
with this lines.
Speaker 1 (51:22):
All right, now we are freaking talking. Now we are
on the same page. Now we are finding our rhythm.
Speaker 2 (51:29):
I'm gonna get a lot of calls about this one.
Speaker 1 (51:31):
Oh, we are going to get so many calls about
this one. I cannot wait but we're going to stand
our ground. We have gone against the wise guy community
before and it has worked out well for us. There
is just not enough respect for this Lion's team. There's
one other team that's getting woefully disrespected that we're going
to talk about. But I'm glad to see we're on
(51:52):
the same page. I'm glad to see we're starting to
narrow down our five that we love for a contest,
Baltimore at Buffalo. Buffalo is a one and a half
point favorites. We can agree that I think Baltimore and
the Eagles might have the best all around rosters in
the NFL. The Bills opened at one and a half,
money kind of flowed into Baltimore. The market moved it
(52:13):
to one. Now it's sort of everywhere between pick and
one and a half, and I'm a little bit lost
on this game. If I can get to one and
a half, I really want to back Baltimore. I think
they're the better overall team. There's always going to be
(52:34):
a little bit of more hype on the reigning MVP.
That's a narrative that people want to bet into if
they are public betters. Baltimore to me feels like the
play here.
Speaker 3 (52:49):
Yeah, let's put Baltimore and we'll talk more of this
about this one on Thursday. For right now, I'm with
Chad that I think this is a big advantish this
Baltimore team.
Speaker 2 (52:56):
I think they're the better team on paper.
Speaker 3 (52:58):
My favorite part two is that the last time they
were in this exact spot was them losing the playoffs
on a heartbreaking drop by you know, a tight times
their tight end and Mark Andrews, and that's a big deal, Like,
you know, that's that's something that's hung about them. They've
trained all off season thinking about that with the Bills,
they're thinking about the Chiefs. They're not thinking about this
Ravens team like that. So yeah, again a game I
(53:21):
think we'll dive way more to on Thursday. For right now,
I want to talk to more people, But I'm with
Chad like this one feels very easy on this Raven side.
And you know, I have this ad a pick I
could get to minus one of the Ravens. I'm sure,
like I'm not really dive into it more, but to me,
I just think this is a good value on this
especially a plus one and a half that's great value
on this Graven side.
Speaker 2 (53:40):
Right.
Speaker 1 (53:40):
Speaking of disrespectful Minnesota, the Chicago Bears. The Chicago Bears
are home dogs of one and a half points on
Monday Night with a visiting quarterback who was essentially a rookie,
JJ McCarthy, who missed all of last season in prime
time in his first game. Like last year, the Bears
(54:05):
were overinflated because of Caleb Hike hype. But this is insanity.
Explain this to me, Simon. Explain this to me as
if I'm not a diehard Bears fan who is thinking
about this game constantly and is so looking forward to it.
Speaker 3 (54:24):
Just from a fan perspective, chat, I'll tell you this
is that we don't trust Caleb Williams. I think that's
the first part of it, where when I'm looking at
betting this side, that was like, my hardest part is
getting over everything I saw last year from Caleb.
Speaker 2 (54:37):
And again that's not all Caleb, that.
Speaker 3 (54:38):
Was on the coaching staff and how they failed him
in many ways. And then it's a question of your
head coaching position.
Speaker 2 (54:43):
It's like I like this guy a lot.
Speaker 3 (54:44):
I love what he's going to do for your team
going forward, but in Week one, I'm going to give
the advantage to this Viking step that I've been together
that you know, their biggest changes obviously had the quarterback position,
which is a big one. But the Bears this is
all new. This is the new defeasive scheme. It's a
new offensive scheme with a lot of moving parts, and
there might be some really hard growing pains for this team.
(55:07):
Especially you have calem going against Brian Flores, one of
the best defensive coordinators in football.
Speaker 2 (55:11):
So I would say that is why they've made them
a dog. But I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (55:15):
It's like JJ McCarthy is a favorite in his first
start on the road in divisional game at.
Speaker 1 (55:23):
Monday night football. Are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (55:25):
So I'm with you, like I'm back in this Barriers team.
But I would say from the public perspective, that is
why I guess people are betting this Vikings team and
they're getting the respect as a favorite right now.
Speaker 2 (55:36):
But I'm right there with you.
Speaker 3 (55:37):
I could not believe, I mean months ago when this
opened up and they were a favorite on.
Speaker 2 (55:42):
The road, Vikings in this exact spot.
Speaker 3 (55:44):
So yeah, it's once again, it's the off season hype, right.
People are thinking themselves, Well, if Sam Darnov, you get
this team to fourteen, and do imagine what JJ McCarthy
can do if he's just you know, half the quarterback
we think he can be with the potential he has
coming out of Michigan. So the hype is right now
for this Vikings team. And you're right you want to be.
If you're a Bears fan, you're being counted out already,
(56:05):
underdogged week one at home. So I think this is
a nice spot in this primetime game for this Bears team.
Speaker 1 (56:10):
Simon, you know, like a bunch of my buddies will
send me money before the season starts, and I will,
as I like to say, invest the money wisely over
the course of the season. And I will give our
investment group a new name every year, normally related to
(56:30):
the Bears. Last year it was Calebkncash. Not a great
year for the Caleb can Cash Investment Group.
Speaker 2 (56:37):
This year, the.
Speaker 1 (56:38):
Name, it's all about the Ben jim In Johnson.
Speaker 2 (56:47):
I see what you did that I did there.
Speaker 1 (56:50):
I feel like we got like a great roster of
games that were narrowing down and digging in on the Bears,
the Lion, the Ravens, the Browns, maybe the Cowboys, Uh,
maybe the Panthers, maybe the commanders. This is good. I
(57:13):
like where we're headed. And we get to Thursday, we're
gonna talk about your biggest bet of the week. We're
gonna go head to head. We're gonna have our favorite
calls from our favorite wise guys. We're gonna have a
very ballsy bet. Uh. We're gonna have one more special
(57:36):
bet for all of our listeners new and old. Thursday,
one thirty pm Eastern on YouTube. We are Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast Network. Like I said, one
thirty Thursday afternoon, we'll be zeroing in on some of
(57:58):
the picks we love the most. Listen, Apple Pods, Spotify,
wherever you get your podcasts, find the Sharp or Square feed.
It's also going to be posted into the Herd feed.
Directly into the Herd feed. You can get it from
both places, but definitely subscribe to the Sharp or Square feed.
(58:21):
Obviously subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube like the videos
comments if you'd like to do that. You know, we
love when people rate when they review because feedback is
always a gift. Until next time, Love you,
Welcome to Sharp or Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper
and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman.
I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
my Comfadre Professional Better, Simon Hunter, and us Simon Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I'm liking our new digs, Dude, look at us, brother.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
We got a brand new title, Sharper Square, brand new graphics,
brand new home, brand new YouTube channel. Go subscribe to
the Sharp or Square YouTube channel. You can get the
shows on YouTube in the afternoons before they drop into
audio feeds. That's important when getting the best of the number.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Again.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
That is Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe like the
video while you are at it. Of course, you will
be able to get the show in your audio feeds.
It's going to be dropped directly into the Hurt feed.
You can also subscribe to Sharper Square through Apple, through Spotify,
(01:14):
et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Dude, we loved our
time at Action, we loved doing the favorites, but I
got to tell you, I'm feeling re energized by this
new show. I could feel it yesterday on O a
call planning today's show. How are you feeling?
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Yeah, just insane timing. I'm sure you have the same thing,
which is a lot going on. And you know, now
we have a new show, we have week one, Brother,
and I'm really excited just to dive back in.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
Yeah, look for those for those who are new to
the show, and I don't know how many people there
are that are new to the show. I've been a
sports journalist and media exec for twenty five years. I've
been covering the gambling space for that long, starting with
my Simon as you know, best selling book The Odds.
I also helped launch the Action Network, where Simon and
I used to be until recently. Simon is professional better
(02:04):
with more than a decade experience betting the NFL. Together,
we take entirely different approaches to find consensus over the
course of the week of our shows for five games
that we want to put into our pick Them contest.
You can come along for the ride as we debate,
we cajole, we support, we ridicule. Tuesday shows air at
(02:29):
one thirty pm Eastern on YouTube, covers the entire slate
of games Thursday show also at one thirty, discusses a
narrower set of games as we see injuries get reported,
as lines start to move, as we get more intel
from the wise guy in professional betting community, we're zeroing
in on those. We will do a short show Sunday
mornings at eleven am for those who have been with
(02:49):
us for years. You know that, like Simon and I
will talk about the pigs that we ultimately decide to
settle on our five favorite picks for our contests on
Sunday morning, going to broad broadcast that conversation at eleven am,
so you're going to hear as we go back and
forth and try to keep ourselves from making bad, impulsive decisions.
(03:09):
And then we will do our wrap up show look
aheadline show on Sundays after the late afternoon games and
before Monday Sunday Night football begins. We'll do that seven
thirty pm Eastern again. All that's going to be on
the Sharper Square YouTube channel you gotta subscribe, and on
your favorite audio platforms. As you said, our lives have
(03:34):
been nutty the past few days. As we wrapped up
our time with Action, I moved my kid into his
dorm at Maryland. The very next morning, took a quick
trip to Costa Rica for the bookground reporting. But here
we are. We've made it. We've been waiting for the
season to start long enough. Let's get into it, my brother,
(03:57):
here we go Thursday night. Dude, crazy crazy, Dallas plus
eight and a half at Philly. You're wearing the green today. Look,
we talked a lot about this game back in the spring.
We loved the Cowboys. I bet the Cowboys at plus seven.
(04:19):
I bet the Cowboys on the money line at plus
two forty. We were bought in on Dak coming back
on a offensive line that was being healthier, a defensive
line that was being healthier. We thought there was general
anti sentiment, public sentiment, and on the Cowboys, and inflation
(04:41):
on the Eagles. Dude, in the last twenty four hours,
this line has gone from seven and a half to
eight and a half. What the actual freak?
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Yeah, it's it's pretty amazing that Parsons is worth two
points to this Cowboys stand two points.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
It's nuts. When I was working on the script yesterday,
I was like, all right, he's worth one point. That
is a ton. This line has steamed to two points.
It's freaking nuts. And I can't see any other reason
it's happening other than the Parsons news and people just
thinking there's complete and total chaos, you know inside the
(05:22):
Cowboys locker room right now. Normally that would be a
spot where we're even more encouraged to play the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
Pretty crazy that the bookmakers are kind of telling us
that Parsons worth two points and the fact that they
have to move it to protect against all these teasers, right,
That's the first thing jumped out to me is you know,
talk to a couple of guys.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I'm like, why is this moving so fast?
Speaker 3 (05:41):
And the reveal was the public came and the professionals
came in, and they had no other option to go
to eight and a half. So I mean, and like
you said, first first thought is I came with parts
is worth two points.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
So I'm sure that shock do you as much as
a shock today?
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Yeah, I can't. Like, we've been talking about the Eagles
all training camp and they've looked so good, right, Jalen
Carter has been as good as he has been in
his career in two seasons. And we both met him
twenty to one on defensive Player of the year, and
(06:14):
we like how Howie Roseman built that team, and we
like their draft picks, and they've gotten even better in
the defensive backfield and you've got Jalen Hurts as your
number two overall quarterback and all that's amazing. So I
do think there's been a lot of energy around the
Eagles that's been pushing this number up. Even before Parsons
(06:34):
was traded, what people thought he might have been continuing
to play with the Cowboys and just to hole that
would end aggressive aggressive move at eight and a half,
I don't know how we don't back the Cowboys here,
Like this number has kind of gotten out of control.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Yeah, it's a rare but tore right, it's dak as
an eight and a half point dog. So it's not
that it feels like a no brainer, right, there's reasons
it's this high, right, the larry and weakness.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
So this Dallas team was the defense last year.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
And yes they just traded for a dtackle and that's
a big deal to help that.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
But that's the question.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
But the Eagles have their own questions chat and that's
why I think there is value where their number two
corner is a big question market something they just traded
for three weeks ago. That's how bad their second corner
position has been. So you know, to me, this type
of game where we're really betting on matchups, and you know,
eight and a half, that's a lot of wiggle room.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
That's a lot of.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Wiggle room for a back door, especially where we know
the weakness of this Eagles team is probably gonna be
that secondary. So you know, for me, it's a lot
through banking on pickings and this new offense here. But
you know, Shaanheimer, he's been taking all of shit, but
I think that this is actually a nice spot for him,
and they're kind of a team that everyone's turning into
a joke and they're piling on and lucky for us
(07:47):
as now up date and a half. So I don't
know if we'll be in our contest, but I do
like this one. Just betting it at eight and a half,
it's a good number.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Simon new show, same contrarian views. I love it. The
uglier the better. There's gonna be a whole lot of
that today. Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers. This is
the Brazil game. Chargers are three point dogs, pretty much
painted three. It was Chiefs two and a half. It's
(08:16):
moved up a tick. I don't really have an opinion
on this one. To be honest, like mahonees it less
than three or as a dog, I'm still inclined to
take it. Even though it didn't work out for us
in the Super Bowl. The Chargers defense is fierce. I
think we're only guessing at this point about Kansas City
and how much they've improved their offensive line. I like
(08:39):
justin Herbert more than you do. As a contest play.
This is a pass. As a bet, this is kind
of a pass. I don't know if you have a
strong opinion.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
I do. I'm shocked you don't like this one.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
To me, it's the Reportuini right, it's Herbert as a
dog that might grow higher than three. At three and
a half, you have to audit anyone listening to this.
If you have at that, you can get three and
a half. I feel like this might have to be
an auto play for everyone out there listen to this show,
and it's really strictly based off of what we've seen
with Herbert. Herbert does not win these games. I agree
(09:10):
with Chad that if this is three or below, I
would not take them. But we see a time time again.
Anytime he's a three and a half point dog against
a competition with people have view better than him.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
He covers. He's a cover machine in this exact spot.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
So you know, just going through his career record, so
three and a half when dog or more, he's eleven
and two and one against the spread eleven to two and
one chet. So it's like, this is this is the
Herbert window where you want Herbert again. There's other spots
called back Herbert, but this is really ones that jump
out to me is when every time he is three
and a half dog or more, it's been a cash
(09:44):
cow again eleven two on one people.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
So this is one where I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
Like because it's in Brazil, I was a little a
little hesitant with it, but I think that actually benefits
this team more than with the Chiefs, and the fact
that it's an even playing field, right, there is no
home field advantage for the charters at home, let's be honest.
So to me, it's beneficial for them to be on
a neutral field like this is. And if you get
to that magic number, that key number, three and a
(10:08):
half with Herbert, don't think about it, just take it.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
He'll lose, he will lose, he will get outplayed.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
I'm sure in the fourth quarter, like we know the deal, right, cheack,
he'll have a ten point lead and he'll somehow they'll
lose by thirteen in the fourth quarter, right, And that's
just that's Herbert's problem.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
So you know, to me, I wouldn't touch the money
like maybe we will. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
It's a little early in the week, but just strictly betting.
Right now, I'm waiting for the three and a half
to fop. A couple of books have touched three and
a half. I've hit it, they've gone back down to three.
I'm hoping we get back there by game time because
again it's a standalone game.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
The public will be bet in this chief side.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
All right, Well, it's not at three and a half
right now. I love the logic. Get it to three
and a half and then take the three and a
half as it stands right now. It might get there,
but that's still a big move, and it you know,
for most of us mortals who aren't up in the
middle of the night watching the lines move from three
(11:02):
to three and a half, it might never be a
possibility if we can get it into contest play fantastic.
The three and a half is definitely on the table. Personally,
I feel like we're going to find so many games
that we like. I mean, we've got a full slate
that we like more. But I'm putting the Chargers on
the board for a deeper conversation when we get to
(11:23):
it on Thursday, see how things evolve between now and
then this next game. We've touched on this a couple
of times during the preseason, the Las Vegas Raiders visiting
the New England Patriots. The Patriots are two and a
half point favorites. This line has moved from three to
two and a half, and I feel like that's indicative
(11:45):
of how you and I have been thinking about the Raiders,
and of how the market is starting to think about
the Raiders, and the combination of Pete Carroll and Ashton
Gent and Brock Bauers and the idea that Max Crosby
is coming back, and like there has been so much
(12:06):
hype about the Patriots and Drake May and his development
and Mike Vrabel all of a sudden, like the professional
community is starting to think a little bit more about
who the Raiders are what they can be. We both
bet them as an over six and a half, one
(12:27):
of our best bets in our preseason betting menu at
two and a half? Are we still backing them?
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Yeah, Raiders. I'm wory chat We're too close. That's my
fear of now is that we are too close to it.
And this one also feels too easy, right, I had
a plus three, That's where I thought we'd be at.
This is another game where it's like I thought public
would just keep typing up Drake May, who I keep
saying he was one in nine last year.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
And this really does remind me of.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
The whole field discussion, Right, people are just basing their
prediction of this upcoming Sea on Drake mayoff potential, and
I agree it's exciting, right, they got Drake Man, they
got Vrabel, but that's something that's like season long potential.
This isn't week one potential. So I think we're both
in the st page of Pete Carroll. The veteran head
coach with a veteran quarterback, to me, is a much
(13:17):
better position than a young quarterback with a ton of
hype and the veteran coach and Verrabel where It's like
I like Verbel obviously for long term for the rest
of the season, but it's gone too far. And when
this was minus three, that felt way too much of
a respect to Vrabel in this Patriots team, right, that
was way too much respect. And so now most books
(13:40):
have been hit, like you just said, by professionals.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
It's down at two and a half? Are we going
to force this bet in? I don't think so.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Like to me, if this stayed three, it went to
three and a half, mean, Chad would really like this one,
maybe make it a contest play, but two and a half,
I'll still take Raiders Sunday most likely, even if it
doesn't get back to three. But I'm not going to
force this one year. We're gonna have ortun newis on
this Raiders team. It doesn't need to be weak one here.
I'm happy to be patient on this Raiders team and
pick spots later on.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
I am trying to teach myself this season. You know,
I've been reporting this book and spending a freak load
of time with professional betters and also doing a lot
of self scouting. I went through every pick I've made
on NFL sides since twenty seventeen I broke down when
I do well. When I don't do well, what I
(14:28):
fall prey to when I seem to win games? What
are the patterns? The best way to make money is
to not lose money, and so I'm trying to be
really disciplined about the picks I make and the numbers
I chase and not getting too excited about what I
think is the right side. If the number isn't matching
(14:51):
that at two and a half, it starts to make
me feel like I'm willingness to happen instead of being
thoughtful about the bet like it to get back to three.
I don't think it's going to get there.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Yeah, again two and a half. I still think it's
that's a fine number. Like I make this game Leary
one and a half, So I still think there's one
point value on this Raiders team.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
But you just nailed it.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
It's we're trying to make money long term here and
get the best of the number. The three is the
best number. Don't don't force don't force it here on
the two and a half because there's plenty of times
where this game does land on Patriots win by three.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
You know I'm doing there. Simon I'm taking a professional
attitude and a professional approach to my betting for the
twenty twenty five NFL season. I say all that because
I don't know. I might just toss it to the
wind on this next one, Cleveland plus five and a
half hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. Oh my god, Simon, I
(15:48):
know my lean without giving it away. My question is
what do we have to believe in order to buy
into the Browns?
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Simon says, give me the Browns.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Come on, come on it, dude. We got a whole
new segment on the show Chad Loves Love. Everyone knows
I'm a romantic. You know, I've been married forever, beautiful wife,
kids that I love who are no longer in the
house because they've decided to abandon us and go live
their lives and spend all their time going to fucking darties.
(16:28):
But you know what a darty is, Simon, A party
to day party. That's what in college they called They
called day parties darties. So all I'm hearing about this
weekend is Darty's at the University of Maryland campus. But
this was going to be my Chad Love's Love. Bet.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
I'll give it to you if you want.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
I got other ones I can fire on, but this
one jumped out to me just because I think this
number is moving.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
I may I might want it at some point, but
let me see how we go through the rest of
the board. Give me, give me your take, because like
I wanted to marry this bet.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
The reason I love this spot so much, that is
just this the Week one home underdog, and that's why
I love the Browns in this exact spot. So week
one of the divisional home underdogs are twenty three and
seven against the spread since twenty ten. They are ten
and two since twenty eighteen and eighteen and four since
twenty twelve.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
Thank you, Evan Abrams.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
I love that stat so much about the divisional home underdogs.
It's it's the money maker, right, It's the public overrating
road favorite that just happens playing against the divisional team.
We talk all the time divisional teams just play weird.
I know Joe Burrow actually has done pretty well against
the Browns here these last couple of years.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
This is a really bad spot, right.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
This is a fully healthy Browns team that actually believes
in themselves. This isn't this is Week ten Browns and
they were one and nine, we'd be betting this different.
This is even in their minds they can make up
maybe be a seventh seat. So to me, the Browns
gonna be playing hard and this number should be three,
three and a half.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
Public has bet this up to five, five and a half. Six.
We love that free value.
Speaker 3 (17:59):
So yeah, this is obviously one of my favorite bets
on the board, and I bet I've been betting all summer.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
Yeah, look, I think that where you're getting the Joe
Burrow effect on this game.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
Right.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
The Browns defense, we know is dominant. The Bengals offensive
line was one of the worst offensive lines in football
last year, and then the Bengals did absolutely zero. In fact,
they might have made it worse. So if there's a
worse number than thirty two, the Bengals are now the
(18:32):
negative thirty two, best worst offensive line in the NFL.
Then you've got all the drama with Trey Hendrickson that
even if he has signed his deal, what kind of
shape is he going to be in? How long will
it take him to get back into playing shape. You
had all the drama with Shamar Stewart, who I'm not
sold is really an answer to anything on the defensive
(18:54):
line for the Bengals. Their defense was terrible also, and
the best thing they've really done is Al Golden as
a defensive coordinator. So I just think there's holes all
over this team and they think they can be papered
over with Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase and T Higgins and
they can't. And they're going against one of the best
pass rushes and one of the best pass rushers in
(19:15):
a generation. Give me the Browns plus five and a half.
I can't see how this is not a contest play
this is a Simon says. It may be Hchad loves
love unless I can find something better to con vince
Simon to take. As as Simon says, old habits, die hard,
(19:36):
Go Browns plus five and a half. Arizona at New
Orleans plus six and a half. I don't really have
a ton of thoughts on this game, like maybe Arizona,
maybe the Saints get into our money line underdog round
robin when we talk about it on Thursday. It's been
about full point of line movement since line's open started
(19:59):
at five and a half, is going up to six
and a half? Really just bets coming in and money
coming in on Arizona. Get any thoughts here, Like Spencer
Rattler is the Saints starter. I just don't have enough
faith that the Cardinals can go on the road and
win by a touchdown. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
I agree with your point that this number just feels
way too big at this point and that they're they're
trying to get us to bet this Saints team.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
So I'd rather just go the other way.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
I'll take Kyler first half, and you know, I assume
that you'll somehow falter this in the second half and
they'll somehow cover this number because this will be one
of the book's biggest needs.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
Right. No one's betting the Saints. No, no one is
going in there and.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
Taking a position, and everybody's probably thrown in their four
five team teaser on the back end this Cardinals team.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
And this is to me two fishy. I don't know
why they would do that to me.
Speaker 3 (20:51):
I trusting Kyler at this big of a number, especially
in Week one, just not a smart bet.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
It's way too big.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
And you know, if we had I would say if
this got up to seven, I would be more confident
in playing contest or thinking about putting injur just because
at that point that's way too much respect to a
Cardinals team that doesn't deserve it, and disrespect to a
Saint thing we talked about. They're a veteran team, right,
They're just really bad at the quarterback position. So the
(21:19):
value there is not there for me yet to play
the Saints team. Like I said, I feel stafer taking
collar first half, but the.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
Books will get me there eventually.
Speaker 3 (21:27):
If this reaches seven and seven and a half on
Sunday morning, I'll be tempted to throw some money in,
but no, like this is not gonna be one of
our five, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
I am so bad at making bets on Sunday morning.
In terms of my historical record, almost all of my
wins come the first three days of the week. Every
game I bet in the first three days a week,
I do so much better than I do when we
get to Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I need to be
disciplined this year. I can't be making silly bets on
Sunday morning because I'm getting excited about a half point.
(21:58):
Discipline and simon, that's what I do. New York Giants
at Washington Commanders, the Commanders are now six point favorites. Look,
we've talked about this all season in a previous iteration
of our show. We don't love the Commanders, like under
nine and a half wins was one of my favorite
(22:20):
season win total bets. We expect some natural regression, not
a knock on Jane Daniels at all. It's just the
natural order of things. The problem is, I think the
Giants are trash, and we went through their schedule. We
could not find five wins to get them over four
(22:41):
and a half wins. I know this is a big
divisional dog, but this is a to me, a little
bit of a different scenario because I do think the
Commanders are better overall than say the Bengals, and I
think that the Giants traveling makes this a little bit
(23:04):
sketchier to me. It has dropped from seven to six
and a half to six, so we know wise guys
have been coming in on the Giants. We've missed the
best of it.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
Yeah, I actually love the Commanders here, and I talked
to those wise guys. I get their reasoning for it.
My pushback against them is that Commanders with Jane Daniels
is the perfect type of quarterback to neutralize a good
defensive line like they have, right.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
And you know, saying which you want.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
Last year in the NFC Championship game, they didn't lose
because of Daniels against that Eagles team, Right, that was
not on him. It felt like it was a lot
of the other stuff where k had guys are around
him fumbling the ball and his defense not be able
to get stops. You look here in this matchup, that's
the strength of this Giants team is that D line. Again,
he's a perfect guy to neutralize that. They're gonna be
able to get him outside the pocket and attack that
(23:54):
D a lot of different ways. So this numbers move
to five and a half Chad so like, I really
like it. But it's very interesting that that much respect
and professional money has come in this heavy on this
Giants team moved to this much. So to me, they're
kind of banking heavily here on Russell Wilson and him
being you know, much more consistent. And they're also looking
(24:15):
at the history of the Giants, you know, for the
Daniel Jones there they owned this Washington team.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
I just think that's totally off basis.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
Those are totally two different teams, and this Washington team
has a totally different identity. So I know that last
year they did play them tough, and I remember we
were we had the Giants in that game. The Giants,
if they just had simply had a kicker, would have
probably won the game outright. So I get while they're
going back to that tape and thinking that the Giants
have the players to make me get this type of
stops and be able to keep them in this game
(24:43):
and keep this as a close one.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
And I can't believe.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
I don't love them as a divisional road dog here,
but I think she had nailed it.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Like this number moved too much. I think it could
literally land right on sticks.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
And to me, if you're getting the five and a half,
which a lot of books have right now, that's the play.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
That's the move for me on this Washington team.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
All right. So I'm putting this on the board as
a revisit because I agree with you. At five and
a half, it starts to all of a sudden become
wait a second, what Like Russell Wilson hasn't been effective
in two years. This is not a team that has
proven it can execute against a home team and a
(25:19):
guy who's already a top ten quarterback.
Speaker 2 (25:23):
Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson two and six against the spread
and week one.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
Yeah, it's gonna be time again to pass that night
at less than six. But I'm curious, like you know,
we'll do. We'll get some calls from wise guys on Thursday,
and so we'll we'll see what some of the thinking
is on that and if they can change our minds
on this game. Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars. Dude, Jaguars
(25:53):
are three and a half point favorites right now. We
love the Panthers always, full stop. This is a Carolina
Panthers podcast. We loved their season win total of over
six and a half. We like their offensive line enough.
We loved how Bryce Young was a gamer the second
(26:14):
half of last year. He went seven and two against
the spread, four outright wins. He was just much much
better as he made decisions. He was extending plays, helping
the scramble rate jump from twenty five percent to forty
seven percent. And it wasn't just because of us offensive
(26:34):
line troubles. It was him moving in the pocket to
make plays and then using his accuracy on the run,
and that's why we liked him. What's interesting to me
is the Jags looked like trash during the preseason for
parts of it. This line has moved from just in
(26:55):
the last twenty four hours from three to three and
a half, so it's moved off a key number. Enough
money has come in the bookmakers had to move it
off three. What do you think is going on here?
Speaker 3 (27:04):
Yeah, just like you were saying, it's the Liam Cohen hype, right,
this is all Jaguars love. It's all good right now, right,
everyone's paying the rosiest picture.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Look what you did with Baker. He'll come here. Save
Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 3 (27:15):
Hey, Chad, you know Trevor Lawrence was eight and three
at one point and one of the best quarterbacks of
football before you got a slight injury. And now it's
been two years of just absolute hell for that Jaguars organization. Yes,
we do know, and I just think it's a lot
of love for this Jaguars team that, yes, to have talent,
but they have many, many weaknesses across the board on
this team, and lucky for them, I don't know if
(27:38):
the Panthers can to exploit those weaknesses. Right who on
that pass rush of the Panthers is really giving you
scare if you're a Jaguars offensive line, not really.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Much there at work with.
Speaker 3 (27:47):
So you know, we'll bet to three and a half.
That to me is the plus three and a half.
That's where the value is on the Panthers. But I'm
not in love with this one. It feels like a bet.
I'm forcing in there just because it feels like a
little bit of an off number. And you know I
had this number right at three. So yes, the value
is on three and a half. But I assume I'll
skip pulling this on the contest and maybe we'll just
(28:09):
get that money line around Robin come Thursday.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
Well, I'm putting it on the list because maybe things
will change over the next forty eight hours. I want
to love the Panthers so much here, I feel like
it would be irresponsible to make the m a Chad
Loves Love bet right now, because that would just be
torture for all of our listeners given our history with
(28:35):
the Panthers. However, Miami visiting the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts
are one and a half point favorites painted one and
a half across the board as my close friend Billy
Joel likes to say, for the longest time, Oh did
(28:58):
you see that documentary?
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Now, I must have missed that.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
It's amazing. It's an HBO Max five and a half
hours of Billy Joe, who is just straight crazier than
you would think. But this line has been at one
and a half the entire summer. We're going to completely
disagree on this one. I like Miami. You're gonna like Indy.
If tu A stays upright against a mediocre to bad
(29:23):
defense that doesn't have a great pass rush, that's just
a clear advantage to me. And I know like you
are so off of Miami, and I know you like
Indy even more now that we know Daniel Jones is starting.
I'm not seeing it.
Speaker 2 (29:40):
Again, Chad. These are all season long thoughts.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Don't try to put me into a corner here, Okay,
I'm talking season longer. Yeah, so I get the Miami
love to me. I'll just tease him. I'll get this
up to seven and a half. That's where I'm coomfortable
because Miami is heavily heavy the public side. It's for
good reason, right, I think anyone unless you've been on
(30:05):
Mars Nos this Colts team has been trash in Week one.
Doesn't matter if it was Andrew Luck or Philip Rivers,
it's always been bad. And I believe they're two and
fourteen straight up and against the spread in week one,
two and fourteen, TUA pretty good, pretty good Week one.
(30:27):
Don't know if you've seen his stats. He's actually two
and oh straight up and against the spread in week
one on the road in his career. I think he's
four to oh in his career and week one straight up,
So yeah, two obviously, week one on the road in
the hostile environment, he's done really well.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
I get Chad's love for it. I'll join them, but again.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
In a teaser, I would not play the one and
a half just because it just feels way too risky.
It just both these teams, Like you just said, Daniel Jones,
I don't know what I'm getting, but I know this
can be better than Anthony Richardson in this exact spot.
I know I hate saying they're due, but my god,
are they du Chad to cover a week one spread
(31:09):
two and fourteen? I can't ran my head around the
last sixteen years. So yeah, Miami, I'm not letting you
put them in our contest. It's too public, but for
a teaser, I like it seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (31:20):
Right until that last comment, I'm like, all right, I
feel like we got a chance here with Miami, and
I agree it's it's so public as with a nod
to our new show. It's pretty fun square and I
love it so much. If you hadn't have just said
(31:43):
all that stuff, I might have to marry this.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
I could get there because then the biggest weakness of
this cold seams are secondary.
Speaker 2 (31:52):
The biggest strength of Miami's.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Their passing attack, right with Tyreek and Water, who are
both healthy right now, So I get what your love
for it. I'm just man, why is this number not
moved at all? And it's just been taking money, taking money,
taking money for the last five months, So it's that's
what's scaring me, brother.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
Right, Like, what's the logic here? Bookmakers know they're lopsided
on Miami, so why are they not trying to change
anything at this point? No one is biting all right,
all right, I still got to commit to somebody. I
got to fall in love. I got to marry someone
I haven't yet other than the Browns, And you came
(32:32):
in undercut me classic Pitt at New York Jets, New
York Jets plus three. I know you want to bet
the Jets. I don't even have to hear you explain it.
And I feel like they've got looked. They've got Quinn
Williams dominanant defensive tackle, potentially dominant corner, and Sauce Gardner
(32:53):
if he can return to what he was in his
rookie year. It was a good defense before Robert Sala
got fired and the creatored and we loved what Aaron
Glenn did with the Lions when they were literally down
to guys off the street. We think he can motivate
this team, but we know the ceiling on Justin Fields,
(33:15):
and the Steelers know the ceiling on Justin Fields. So
to me, if I think about this as a matchup
and if there's a play like an advantage in the handicap,
I don't really see it. Like I don't think Aaron
Rodgers is the Aaron Rodgers of old. I think he
had a couple good years with Lafloor, Matt Lafloor because
(33:35):
he listened to Matt Lafloor, But he had a crappy year,
mediocre year last year on a garbage situation. Now he's
got a relatively conservative offensive coordinator. You say you don't
know what you're getting in Miami and Indy. I don't
really feel like I know what I'm getting in this
(33:56):
game and the key players and quarterback of Justin Fields
and Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Yeah, you know me too well, Chad.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
I love the Jets and it's I love that it's
season long though. Once again, I don't need to force
a week one, but I'm just gonna play the three.
You know me, it's it's Tomlin on the road as
a favorite. Is this not a spot we always fade
him in this exact spot, like this man hates to
have love, he hates to be loved in this exact spot.
So to me, it's a no brainer where you know,
(34:25):
I like to the Jets. Identity right now to the
general public is a little unknown where when you listen
to insiders you can get a really good read on
this team where we know what they're gonna be right.
They're gonna be an extremely run heavy team and I
think they will unleash Fields here in this type of
matchup where you're getting the read option and he'll be
carrying it pretty heavy against his former team. Again, this
(34:45):
is gonna mean a lot. Then this is a team
that had him in house and let him walk. You
know that's gonna that's gonna be on top of his mind.
And you know, Aaron Rodgers obviously a revenge game. It's
it's not a great matchup for him, right. This is
a defensive line that gets out for the quarterback and
it's going to be keep on moving him off his spot,
especially up the middle, which we've seen him struggle with.
Speaker 2 (35:06):
So yeah, just.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Really comes down to the number, Like if this was
one and a half, I really wanted to be on
Pittsburgh never got down even close to It's been three
two and a half almost every book.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
So at three, that's a Jets number. I'll take it.
Speaker 3 (35:19):
But like Chad said, no need to force this one
another game where it's like I'm Bennett because it feels
like this is what I do, taking these ugly home
dogs in this exact spot where no one believes in them.
But it's also a team that we just don't know
much enough about this Jets team that my only rule
advantage here is that I think they're going to be
able to run the ball pretty well against this Pittsburgh
(35:39):
team the way they're going to be able to run block.
So yeah, really excited for this Jets team this upcoming season.
But I will make Chad taket here, dude.
Speaker 1 (35:47):
We got a couple of games coming up that I
actually am pretty sweet on and I'm excited to get
your opinion. It's not Tampa Bay Atlanta Atlanta's two and
a half. It's an interesting game. Like I mentioned the
Saints Cardinals game that that game had moved a full point,
So is this one not A ton of games have
moved that much. It's one of the few that has
(36:09):
moved sort of that much. To be honest, I'm not
sure I understand the move which has happened over the
excuse me, it's happened over the past week. I kind
of lean Falcons at this spot. In this number. You know,
we have Baker's the top ten QB, but a lot
(36:30):
of that is based on what he did last year,
and that was predicated on increased screen passes to help
him manage the pressure. His EPA expected points added on
screens was the second highest the past four seasons, behind
just Patrick Mahomes. Like it helped him decrease his sack rate.
(36:53):
New offensive coordinator. Again, we don't really know how they're
going to utilize Baker in a screen game. To me,
it's really about Penix. Can Pennix be protected? Can he
stay as the football experts like to stay, like to say,
on schedule, Because if he was on schedule, meaning clean
pocket throwing in rhythm, only Lamar Jackson was better in
(37:19):
those scenarios. And when he needs to run and that's
with the minimum of one hundred passes, when he needs
to scramble and he's sort of out of sync, he craters.
So we kind of need to know is Michael Pennock's
going to get protected to feel confident betting them as dogs.
Love the weapons though, love the weapons, don't love this
(37:42):
game yet.
Speaker 3 (37:44):
No, this is I had to go some chalk somewhere, people,
This is where I'm going chalk. So I'll take books here.
And now that it's still under three, I think that's
a good number. But I'm going to read this line
again because this is why I'm so hesitant to really
hammer this one, and you know, jump on the table
for a week when Division home under dogs twenty three
and seven against the spread since twenty ten, so.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
It is technically a spy. You should be taking Atlanta.
Speaker 3 (38:06):
But I think they're getting too much respect here and
too much disrespect to a Bucks team that you know
they're highly talented. And last year against his exact Atlanta team,
they let a couple of games get away that they
shouldn't have, So I think there would be a.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
Highly motivated Bucks team here.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
And I like this spot and a key number under three,
So I get the Atlanta love. The trends point to
it as well. I just I can't He's lost key
guys to the offensive line, and Penis cannot be moved
off his spot. He struggles when he's moved off the spot,
so I just can't get there with Penicks.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
I'm back in Slanta.
Speaker 1 (38:36):
Team Simon, You've said it a couple of times. This
show you feel good about a team season long, but
it doesn't necessarily mean you like them. This weekend, Tennessee
is at Denver. Denver is a seven and a half
(38:57):
point favorite, along with the Cowboys and in the Eagles.
This is the biggest number on the board, and this
until the past twenty four hours, it's the only number
on the board that it touched eight with the Broncos,
and then there was a little bit of buyback on
the eight by professionals and it went back down to
seven and a half. Look, Denver's defense is elite like.
(39:21):
Depending on the category you want to focus on, it
could be the best in the NFL. In this case,
I want to focus on pass rush, which it was
the best in the NFL. And they have the defending
defensive Player of the Year and pascertain at defensive back.
We like the Titans season long, and we like what
we've seen from cam Ward. You know, Chase Daniel, the
(39:46):
former quarterback. I love his tiktoks and he has been
loving cam Ward. Don't laugh at me. I can like
TikTok and he has been loving cam Ward and how
he's been developing and what he's seen in the preseason.
Number one overall quarterbacks past sixteen one in fifteen against
(40:06):
the spread in their first game. It's been twenty three
years since the number one overall pick at quarterback even
won his first start. That was David Carr with the Texans.
Believe it or not, Simon I covered that game for
ESPN the magazine. I know we love cam Ward I'm
super high on their offensive line. We love Bill Callahan.
(40:26):
They signed the dude Kevin Seitzer from is that his name?
From the Lions. I feel like I want to be
on Denver here.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
Chad, I can't believe you're saying that.
Speaker 3 (40:38):
I cannot believe you liked them the spot where this
is you don't even have to be in a sports
but I know this is a terrible spot.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
So what did what did you know bo Nicks do
that was so historical last year?
Speaker 3 (40:50):
He never lost or didn't cover as his favorite last year,
I believe he was eight and oh or nine to oh,
something insane like that. On the flip side, we have
a Tennessee team that I went two and fifteen against
this part, I believe last season. So just off that alone,
you are getting what two three free points? Just off that,
(41:10):
off the public perception of that right there, which is
like a cash cow in Denver to all these betters
and Tennessee an easy faith for all them, where it's
it's a whole new world, like this is totally different.
This is not the same Tennessee team and it's not
the same Denver team. Like again, as much as we're
all painting a rosie pitcher of this Denver team, and hey,
they might win this division. This is a tall task
(41:32):
to ask them to cover this big of a number
at home in Week one, with all those expectations and pressure,
playing against a Tennessee team that they have no worries.
And Chad nailed it. The fear here is the rookie
quarterback on the road in their first start. So survivor pool, Yeah,
Denver lay up week one? Right, I think rookies since
the nineteen seventy merger eighteen twenty one straight up in
(41:56):
this exact spot on the road in their first start.
Speaker 2 (42:00):
I mentioned the last.
Speaker 3 (42:00):
Rookie quarterback to win, you know, tons of respect, David Carr.
Kaylyn Williams did it last year, right, kayleb Williams won
as a rookie in his first start, which was a
really big deals. So number one pick it just doesn't happen, right,
The number one picks tend to lose.
Speaker 2 (42:16):
We've seen historical data.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
So once again it's another nice spot to take Denver
and survivor. But against the spread, it feels like a horrible,
horrible spot to back Denver. And as bad as these
rookie quarterbacks are, covering the spread on the road. They're
thirteen or fourteen against the spread in Week one on
the road, so you know this isn't that terrible spot
against spread. It's just a bad spot for him to
(42:37):
win outright. So people out there tease Denver. I think
that's a great one to throw in there. I just
cannot see them losing this game. All this stuff points
to Tennessee team losing this game but covering seven and
a half. There's eight and a half's out there. I
don't know if you've seen it. There's been eight and
a half's popping up in a couple different books, and
eights popping up all around.
Speaker 2 (42:55):
So you know, to me, this is a.
Speaker 3 (42:58):
Type of game where it's like the closer we get
and if our contest as this eight and a half,
how do we not play it? That's an insane number
when all the atstup points in this Tennessee team being
heavily underrated, Denver being heavily overrated based off last.
Speaker 1 (43:13):
Sear I'm not even thinking about last season, dude. I'm
only thinking about the situation for a rookie quarterback going
against one of the best defenses in the NFL and
one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and having
to play in altitude in an entirely different situation, that is,
even from what he's been practicing against and what he
had in the preseason. I think the Broncos might kill them.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
That's fair. Again, that's fair.
Speaker 3 (43:39):
This Tennessee team has a lot of issues, but I
still think a lot of their problems last year just
went back to the quarterback position, and people are overrating
too much about their defensive strugglies.
Speaker 2 (43:49):
Their defense on Tennessee is not as bad as you think.
Speaker 3 (43:51):
I think they might give some problems to bon Nicks
and this Deptember offense. So I get you where your
love's coming from, Chad, but I just think it's way two,
way too high to be bet in this one.
Speaker 2 (44:03):
Seven and a half is high.
Speaker 1 (44:04):
Oh look, we're we're going to do our annual weekly
head to head on Thursday on Thursday show. So it
feels like this game might be in contention that one
of us might pick Ford and one of us might
pick against it.
Speaker 2 (44:25):
I don't need to I wonder which ones which one.
I wonder which one sharper square.
Speaker 1 (44:29):
Yeah, exactly, we'll see. We'll see exactly. I don't know.
I already I'm already against the name of this new show.
I feel like, by the way, we need a new
bet category called S O S because you know, that's
the name of the show, but also it highlights an
emergency situation, and I feel like we're going to run
(44:52):
into some of those over the course.
Speaker 2 (44:53):
I'm trying to save you. Right now, you're fighting me.
That's all I'm gonna say.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
I can't be saved.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
You can't. You got to do You're gonna go into it, don't.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
I am just a lost cause there's just gonna be
times where I can't help myself. Houston at the Rams
Leen Rams moved actually in the last twenty four hours
from two and a half to three. No strong opinion here.
Speaker 2 (45:14):
Yeah, let's keep it moving.
Speaker 3 (45:15):
I'm with Chad like I want to be on the RAMS,
but it's just there's just so much little to go
off here. And yeah, to me, it's under three. That's
a good number. I'll take the Rams, but I'm with
you chat. Maybe all more confidence come Thursday, but right
now I have again, I.
Speaker 2 (45:30):
Have thousands of bets.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
People for a week one you wouldn't want to see
my binder filled with tickets right.
Speaker 2 (45:35):
Now, this game is so small.
Speaker 3 (45:38):
I bed so little on it because of all the
injuries to Houston's team, all the injuries to this Rams,
and all the questions around Stafford.
Speaker 2 (45:44):
So yeah, two and a half. I'll take the Rams.
I'm with Chad. I just don't have a real read
on it. As we said, you're on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (45:50):
Guess what are you ready?
Speaker 2 (45:53):
Yes, sir.
Speaker 1 (45:56):
The biggest move of the offseason, Detroit Lions are head
into Green Bay. They were one and a half point favorites.
The line moved a month ago to favor the Packers
of one and a half. Since the Micah Parsons news,
(46:18):
it has gone to two and a half. Like on
our old show, we talked about liking Detroit more and
more as training camp went on and finding value and
wanting to like them at plus one forty five to
win the division again. This was all before the Micah
Parsons news and we started to like them as one
(46:40):
and a half point docs. Now they are two and
a half point docs thanks to the Micah Parsons trade.
Again a point of value being ascribed to Micah Parsons.
Let me tell you a story, So Micaeh Parsons was
traded at about five o'clock on Thursday. I went back
(47:02):
and I looked to see when the exact line moved happened.
It was five oh seven pm at that time. I
had literally just said goodbye to my son after we
had moved him into his dorm, and we were walking
away and we are like barely functioning walking to our car.
(47:28):
Our son and his new roommate were, you know, probably
fifteen steps ahead of us. We just happened to be
walking in the same direction, but they were ahead of us.
And his new roommate is a huge Packers fan, and
I had been giving him shit the entire day that
we were moving in about the Packers, right, And as
we are all walking away, my son, who's ahead of us,
(47:50):
turns around and says to me, Dad, the Packers just
traded for Micah Parsons. This was just after five pm.
And the roommate starts going crazy and saying wildly inappropriate
shit to someone who is an elder. But I look
(48:11):
at the when the line move happened five oh seven pm,
you can think like exactly when Persons was traded. That's
when the line went from one and a half to
two and a half, Simon, I'm going to tell you
right now there are reports that he's going to need
an injection to play. Chad loves Love, Chad loves the
(48:40):
Detroit Lions at plus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (48:42):
I will say this, Chad, I want to hate it.
I won't lie to you. I do want to hate it.
Speaker 3 (48:47):
I want to go against it because this is going
to be the most lopsided game and I feel like
it's such a sucker where I have I probably have
fifty teasers and about half of them have the lines
in there at seven and a half and now it's
eight and a half. Now, like it's even better to
throw them in a teaser. But if you're going off
just straightly against the spread, this is why I love
(49:08):
Lions with you, and I'm like, again, it's hard for
me to go against green Bay in the spot because
this is such a green Bay spot. But Dan Campbell
eleven and three against the spread in September, that's pretty
incredible golf our guy eight to oh against the spread
Week one, eight and oh against the spread, and even better,
(49:31):
he's four and oh straight up and against the spread
with the Rams, and he's four and oh against the
spread with the Lions. So it's like this guy just
does it doesn't matter if he was with the Rams,
he came to Detroit and they were terrible when he
came here, and he's still been a covering machine in
week one.
Speaker 2 (49:46):
So I don't get it. I don't get it.
Speaker 3 (49:48):
I dove into the numbers and it's like who is
because again I know some professionals who have put six
figures now onto the Screen Bay team and this was
before the Parsons news, Like they've been taking a position
for months on this Green Bay team, even with all
the you know, Love hurting his non throwing hand and
you know, all the wide receivers being hurt. Again, Golden's
(50:09):
look great in camp for them, but all their other
receivers around him have been either injured or falling apart.
I couldn't be lower on this Packers team coming this
season because I was high coming in and it was
just so negative in camp. It really made me doubt them.
But it really is the little floor factor, right. I
think that's why people love this Packers team so much.
In the spot where the Packers they're fifty to three
(50:30):
against the spread since twenty nineteen in their first three games,
they're seven to zero against the.
Speaker 2 (50:36):
Spread in that stretch at Lambeau.
Speaker 3 (50:39):
So it's all there, like the trends are telling you
that this is a spot to back this grave Green
Bay team at home, But we just went through it.
This Lion's team with Campbell and Golf had been incredible
in September and especially in the Week one.
Speaker 2 (50:55):
So man, this is a tough one.
Speaker 3 (50:57):
I'm going to support my guy here, Chad, even though
it feels inanely trappy.
Speaker 2 (51:01):
I'm with him.
Speaker 3 (51:02):
I think the books you're overacting too much. The loss
of the coordinators. The town level is still very high
for Detroit, and you know we'll see like Green Bay again,
they might be better down the road. But that Parsons thing,
I'm with you. That through a real wrench to those
sole thing where it's like he's getting a shut in
his back before this game.
Speaker 2 (51:19):
So I'll join I'll take that two and a half
with this lines.
Speaker 1 (51:22):
All right, now we are freaking talking. Now we are
on the same page. Now we are finding our rhythm.
Speaker 2 (51:29):
I'm gonna get a lot of calls about this one.
Speaker 1 (51:31):
Oh, we are going to get so many calls about
this one. I cannot wait but we're going to stand
our ground. We have gone against the wise guy community
before and it has worked out well for us. There
is just not enough respect for this Lion's team. There's
one other team that's getting woefully disrespected that we're going
to talk about. But I'm glad to see we're on
(51:52):
the same page. I'm glad to see we're starting to
narrow down our five that we love for a contest,
Baltimore at Buffalo. Buffalo is a one and a half
point favorites. We can agree that I think Baltimore and
the Eagles might have the best all around rosters in
the NFL. The Bills opened at one and a half,
money kind of flowed into Baltimore. The market moved it
(52:13):
to one. Now it's sort of everywhere between pick and
one and a half, and I'm a little bit lost
on this game. If I can get to one and
a half, I really want to back Baltimore. I think
they're the better overall team. There's always going to be
(52:34):
a little bit of more hype on the reigning MVP.
That's a narrative that people want to bet into if
they are public betters. Baltimore to me feels like the
play here.
Speaker 3 (52:49):
Yeah, let's put Baltimore and we'll talk more of this
about this one on Thursday. For right now, I'm with
Chad that I think this is a big advantish this
Baltimore team.
Speaker 2 (52:56):
I think they're the better team on paper.
Speaker 3 (52:58):
My favorite part two is that the last time they
were in this exact spot was them losing the playoffs
on a heartbreaking drop by you know, a tight times
their tight end and Mark Andrews, and that's a big deal, Like,
you know, that's that's something that's hung about them. They've
trained all off season thinking about that with the Bills,
they're thinking about the Chiefs. They're not thinking about this
Ravens team like that. So yeah, again a game I
(53:21):
think we'll dive way more to on Thursday. For right now,
I want to talk to more people, But I'm with
Chad like this one feels very easy on this Raven side.
And you know, I have this ad a pick I
could get to minus one of the Ravens. I'm sure,
like I'm not really dive into it more, but to me,
I just think this is a good value on this
especially a plus one and a half that's great value
on this Graven side.
Speaker 2 (53:40):
Right.
Speaker 1 (53:40):
Speaking of disrespectful Minnesota, the Chicago Bears. The Chicago Bears
are home dogs of one and a half points on
Monday Night with a visiting quarterback who was essentially a rookie,
JJ McCarthy, who missed all of last season in prime
time in his first game. Like last year, the Bears
(54:05):
were overinflated because of Caleb Hike hype. But this is insanity.
Explain this to me, Simon. Explain this to me as
if I'm not a diehard Bears fan who is thinking
about this game constantly and is so looking forward to it.
Speaker 3 (54:24):
Just from a fan perspective, chat, I'll tell you this
is that we don't trust Caleb Williams. I think that's
the first part of it, where when I'm looking at
betting this side, that was like, my hardest part is
getting over everything I saw last year from Caleb.
Speaker 2 (54:37):
And again that's not all Caleb, that.
Speaker 3 (54:38):
Was on the coaching staff and how they failed him
in many ways. And then it's a question of your
head coaching position.
Speaker 2 (54:43):
It's like I like this guy a lot.
Speaker 3 (54:44):
I love what he's going to do for your team
going forward, but in Week one, I'm going to give
the advantage to this Viking step that I've been together
that you know, their biggest changes obviously had the quarterback position,
which is a big one. But the Bears this is
all new. This is the new defeasive scheme. It's a
new offensive scheme with a lot of moving parts, and
there might be some really hard growing pains for this team.
(55:07):
Especially you have calem going against Brian Flores, one of
the best defensive coordinators in football.
Speaker 2 (55:11):
So I would say that is why they've made them
a dog. But I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (55:15):
It's like JJ McCarthy is a favorite in his first
start on the road in divisional game at.
Speaker 1 (55:23):
Monday night football. Are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (55:25):
So I'm with you, like I'm back in this Barriers team.
But I would say from the public perspective, that is
why I guess people are betting this Vikings team and
they're getting the respect as a favorite right now.
Speaker 2 (55:36):
But I'm right there with you.
Speaker 3 (55:37):
I could not believe, I mean months ago when this
opened up and they were a favorite on.
Speaker 2 (55:42):
The road, Vikings in this exact spot.
Speaker 3 (55:44):
So yeah, it's once again, it's the off season hype, right.
People are thinking themselves, Well, if Sam Darnov, you get
this team to fourteen, and do imagine what JJ McCarthy
can do if he's just you know, half the quarterback
we think he can be with the potential he has
coming out of Michigan. So the hype is right now
for this Vikings team. And you're right you want to be.
If you're a Bears fan, you're being counted out already,
(56:05):
underdogged week one at home. So I think this is
a nice spot in this primetime game for this Bears team.
Speaker 1 (56:10):
Simon, you know, like a bunch of my buddies will
send me money before the season starts, and I will,
as I like to say, invest the money wisely over
the course of the season. And I will give our
investment group a new name every year, normally related to
(56:30):
the Bears. Last year it was Calebkncash. Not a great
year for the Caleb can Cash Investment Group.
Speaker 2 (56:37):
This year, the.
Speaker 1 (56:38):
Name, it's all about the Ben jim In Johnson.
Speaker 2 (56:47):
I see what you did that I did there.
Speaker 1 (56:50):
I feel like we got like a great roster of
games that were narrowing down and digging in on the Bears,
the Lion, the Ravens, the Browns, maybe the Cowboys, Uh,
maybe the Panthers, maybe the commanders. This is good. I
(57:13):
like where we're headed. And we get to Thursday, we're
gonna talk about your biggest bet of the week. We're
gonna go head to head. We're gonna have our favorite
calls from our favorite wise guys. We're gonna have a
very ballsy bet. Uh. We're gonna have one more special
(57:36):
bet for all of our listeners new and old. Thursday,
one thirty pm Eastern on YouTube. We are Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast Network. Like I said, one
thirty Thursday afternoon, we'll be zeroing in on some of
(57:58):
the picks we love the most. Listen, Apple Pods, Spotify,
wherever you get your podcasts, find the Sharp or Square feed.
It's also going to be posted into the Herd feed.
Directly into the Herd feed. You can get it from
both places, but definitely subscribe to the Sharp or Square feed.
(58:21):
Obviously subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube like the videos
comments if you'd like to do that. You know, we
love when people rate when they review because feedback is
always a gift. Until next time, Love you,
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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