Sharp or Square - NFL Week 3 Bets: Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Cowboys, Eagles-Bucs, Chargers-Giants and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Vett. We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am
joined by'm my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre,
professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, sioymon, God.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
It's always funny going back and watching our Sunday show
because I honestly don't remember. It's always a fever dream
where I'm like basically just going through the motions. I'm
just exhausted, chewed up at that point, and I want
to apologize everyone. I should have been more excited about
our block kicks. I just think it's a professional better.
I'm excited at the moment, but I'm also like, I
don't know if people saw the clip of Hurts when

(00:50):
they blocked the kick and took it back for the touchdown.

Speaker 3 (00:52):
I thought a little bit like that, a little bit
of like a psycho killer.

Speaker 2 (00:55):
So I don't want to say I was very excited
about our wins three and two.

Speaker 3 (00:58):
Love it every week.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
I just you just have to understand, I'm literally I'm
just holding on trying not to say anything crazy on
the Sun Night show. My mind is all over the place.
And if it didn't come off that was very excited.
I am anytime me and Chack and win, especially a
gross week like last week and we survive our Survivor pool,
I am on the inside elated. I just need twenty
four hours of sleep before I can really express it.

Speaker 1 (01:21):
It's so funny that you bring that up. You and
I haven't discussed that, but I got on that show
and I was like overwhelmed with joy.

Speaker 3 (01:33):
You're a normal human.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, And like I was, I was actually surprised, and
I thought to myself, Man, he's really taken this sort
of even Kilo professional better. I asked you, like on
the show, I texted you, can you believe what's happening?
And you just texted back football like and by that
I stand by I know, but your lack of enthusiasm
was marked. We haven't talked about it. I'm glad you're

(01:57):
that and.

Speaker 2 (01:58):
If I was all right, and I was like, yeah,
I'm not dead inside. I just it's just a hard job.
I know, it's people think you know, it's it's easy
at some points of your life. But yeah, the stress
of trying to get the pics right, not sleeping, and
then it comes through. I'm just yeah, arsonally show. I'm
just literally trying to hold it together and go through

(02:19):
the games. And that's why I think people enjoy the show.
It's like you just see two guys, either happy or
both just equally dead inside talking about their picks.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
Well, what's funny is I want people to picture this
when they think about the Sunday night show. You're miserable,
haven't slept in thirty six hours. I walk up from
to my third floor where my office in Slash Studio
is to do the show. And by that time, you know,
on the East Coast in the fall, it's dark and

(02:49):
I turn on the lights and that walk it feels
like the longest walk in the world, coming up to
the third floor to do that show on Sunday nights.
So when that respect, I completely feel your pain. Uh,
it's hard to be enthusiastic at the end of that day.
But we're going to do it for the listeners. We're

(03:09):
going to do it for the viewers. We're going to
do it for the people that are riding with us.
I hope they rode with us on the Chiefs minus
five and a half, I was all in. You were
semi in. I hope they rode with us on the
Lions at plus five and a half early in the
week last week, I was all in, you were semi in.

Speaker 3 (03:29):
I know confident.

Speaker 2 (03:29):
You were definitely the way more confident on the line side, Robers,
I'll do beaut's defense, But I still don't know about
that offensive line. And I think we got our answer,
which which which side has more problems right now?

Speaker 3 (03:40):
Though the lines offensive line doesn't.

Speaker 1 (03:42):
Well, that's what we're gonna get to, right We're gonna
we're gonna dig in on all that today. Uh listen,
I've got a lot of questions, all fair and appropriate
about how are we tracking our record? Where are we
telling people? The Tuesday show is where we will give
people the final results from Sunday and from the weekend
because sometimes we have the Sunday night Monday night games,
and then we will also reveal how we are doing

(04:04):
on the season. So for official record record keeping, we
went three and two over the weekend. For the season.
We are now nine and six. You should be seeing
if you're watching on YouTube, should be seeing a graphic
up there totally fair to be asking.

Speaker 2 (04:20):
It'll be clear in the future too, right. We both
agree we'll have something better in the future.

Speaker 1 (04:24):
We're just we're transitioning.

Speaker 2 (04:25):
Yeah, we're transitioning, trying to make it. We're doing the
best weekend people, We're doing the best we can. We
want we want something better in the future as well
for tracking our picks, and we will have that figured
out mostly.

Speaker 1 (04:35):
Listen. We used to have accounts at another company and
they disabled them so we can't use them.

Speaker 3 (04:40):
It's tough on both sides.

Speaker 1 (04:41):
Listen. That's where and then we'll do our final picks
here on Sunday mornings. You got to listen and watch.
We'll flash the graphics every Tuesday. We got a lot
to get to today, including the end of the show
the long promised winner of our reader comment contest. The
winner will get some amazing swag. Listen, we're gonna figure
out what the swag is. We barely know where the

(05:02):
Slack channel is at this point. This is our Tuesday show.
We're going to review the entire slate interesting lines, Simon.
As exciting as the games were over the weekend, we
still had eight games decided by double digits, more than
three of those were decided by thirty plus points. So
we're going to see some inflated lines, right, and we're

(05:24):
going to see some teams that are truly terrible and
potentially no inflation is enough. And I think we both
changed our tune on when you know it's not quite
as obvious as it used to be to back the
big dogs. Don't forget Get the show with Sharper Square
on YouTube, Go subscribe and like the video while you
are at it. You can subscribe to Sharper Square on

(05:44):
Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pots. Thursday Night football,
Seeattle at Arizona. Arizona is a one and a half
point favorite at Hard Rock Bet Simon. I immediately flagg
this is a game I was interested on Sunday night
liking the Cardinals. That was before the James Connor news.

(06:07):
That feels like a sharp play to back the Cardinals.
But I haven't bet it. I'm keeping my powder dry.
I don't feel strongly about it.

Speaker 3 (06:16):
Yeah, interesting number I did.

Speaker 2 (06:18):
I honestly thought they would make the Seahawks a favorite
just because coming off a huge win public, like we said,
public perception, and that's where the money's gonna go so
and the line. Am I rushing to bet? But I
am just as you. I'm on the Cardinal's side. Thursdays
have been good to us. I think we're three to
oh this season, and even though we haven't played in
the contest, only we played a Friday. We played the
Chargers in a Friday game in the contest, but no Thursdays.

Speaker 3 (06:41):
But they've been hitting for us.

Speaker 2 (06:42):
And this just feels like last week another easy spot
where it's like the home favorite.

Speaker 3 (06:50):
Getting less than a field goal on a short week.
And you know, the.

Speaker 2 (06:55):
Biggest concern is the Cardinals secondary, right, they're really banged
up Ken Sam Donald take advantage of that. We'll see
as in this matchup. So honestly want to flip Kyler
as a dog. I think he's like one of the
best guys.

Speaker 1 (07:09):
Yeah, that's kind of what I'm waiting for, right, But that's.

Speaker 2 (07:11):
Where I'm at where I'm like trying to be patient.
A lot of these numbers, like we talked on Sunday,
they're so close like that Vegas Chicago non that they
can flip. It all depends on what books you're shopping at,
So be patient to even get a plus one and
a half. Maybe we'll touch again on this one on Thursday,
but I just don't think anthing will change me and Chad,
we'll be on the Cardinals most likely, and uh, if

(07:32):
it doesn't flip, I'm stuck taking the one minus one
and a half. I'll take it on the Cardinals. But yeah,
not not one of my more confident bls this week.

Speaker 1 (07:40):
I don't know why it hasn't flipped yet. That's that's
what's confusing to me, especially with Connor being out, especially
with the Seahawks doing what they did.

Speaker 3 (07:49):
There's a month and a half points, Chad, and there's
a pick out there. It will flip. Okay, there's already.

Speaker 2 (07:55):
If they're if they're already moving to half a point,
which is such a dumb thing, they'll flip.

Speaker 3 (08:01):
So yeah, I'm I'm with you.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
Every every every book right now is one book did flip?
So a four lettered word, you're extu employee from back
in the day.

Speaker 3 (08:10):
They're the only book right now that has cars as
a dog. So that's that's that's Uh.

Speaker 2 (08:17):
Be patient, but we're already seeing, like here we are
very early Tuesday morning, they've already flipped that one book. Yeah,
I think you have the right rate here, just wait,
or you can go grab that plus one and a
half right now if you get in your state. So yeah,
pretty interesting line movement. I think your your early read
was right that Cardinals is the right side. But be patient.
The Seahawks will flip this line. They're just they just
had a blowout win. They're pretty healthy. Everyone's kind of

(08:40):
in love with them. They're they're going to get the
majority of the money in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (08:43):
They're gonna get got Yeah.

Speaker 3 (08:46):
Most likely.

Speaker 2 (08:47):
It's it's never a good spot early in the season
here where you have huge wins and you have a
short week playing against a team that just lost in
a divisional game.

Speaker 3 (08:54):
Yeah, it tends to be, uh historically at bad spot.

Speaker 2 (08:57):
So I'll look at the trends and stuff, but I'm
almost positive going to back the Cardinals here in this
number in.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
The spot, Simon, can I wish you a top of
the morning, because we're going to Dublin and the Minnesota
Vikings are playing the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Pittsburgh Steelers
are two and a half point underdogs the games at
nine point thirty Eastern. You're gonna have to get up
a little bit early to watch that game. Wacky wacky

(09:24):
line movement on this one, because the Steelers were actually
a point and a half favorites heading into the games
on Sunday, and then, you know, because of what the
Vikings did against the Bengals and I think a little
bit about what the Steelers did against the Patriots, the
line has moved a full four points since the end

(09:46):
of both of those games. You know, I get it.
I get the move Like, the Steelers have not been
impressive to me at all. They needed to bring blitzes
to get pressure against the Patriots on Sunday when they've
spent about one hundred million dollars on defensive specialists who

(10:08):
are designed who are supposed to be getting pressure without
needing to bring the Blaetz, Aaron Rodgers still looks pretty
mediocre and pedestrian. They kind of won that game because
the Patriots literally handed it to him. But am I
buying Carson Wentz? Is that a sharp idea, Simon? To
buy Carson Wentz?

Speaker 3 (10:26):
That would be the square idea? Right?

Speaker 2 (10:28):
Yeah, I'm killing myself because we joked on something. I
bet it because I thought this was in Pittsburgh And
this line makes total sense. Being in Dublin. The Steelers
have been outplayed in all through their games should be
oh and three. You know why they're not yet? That
Tomblin magic. The man does it every year, and every
year people have the same conversation you're having right now,
is they've been outplayed, They've done this, they've done that,

(10:50):
They're not that good, and they will be nine to
eight and it will not make sense to anybody.

Speaker 3 (10:55):
I don't really need validation. I just think it's difficult
to box without sparn shop and I sword for the battle.
But this is like the first year I could say that.

Speaker 2 (11:04):
People will have their doubts because there's so much to
point at, like how can this luck continue? Like you said,
their defense is bad, like Aaron Rodgers, you can just
look at the numbers and the next you dont need
to watch the tape. There are so many ways to
attack him now with all of his glaring weaknesses, there's
so many things he cannot do, and their offensive line
has major problems.

Speaker 3 (11:25):
So Pittsburgh here at this number.

Speaker 2 (11:28):
I think it's honestly right. Like I honestly didn't get
it because I thought they were at home. But in Dublin,
the Lakings are a better team right now and health
wise they're healthier. But you are a fool if you
are taking Wentz here with this number is like they're
our rock. I'm looking at live here in Jersey. They
just hit the plus three minus one fifteen on the Steelers,
so that's it's all Vikings money professionally early here. So

(11:54):
you know that could be the right read because it's
such a random game in Dublin. We've seen international games
the favorites cover, they win, Like that's usually the right
play to make.

Speaker 3 (12:04):
But I can't get over it, Like.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
Plus three chance of getting three and a half against
Wentz won't put more than a buck on it. But
I will no doubt end up on this Pittsburgh side.
And I said it last week. These backup quarterbacks, I
think they went owing to the guys who made to
start the week before. It's always different in the second week,
Carson Wentz. Can I be able to get away with
it because there's no real tape, Like they didn't really

(12:28):
have to do anything right the Vikings offense. They just
Jordan Mason needed to death and had two pick sixes,
Like they just didn't need to show anything on tape
with Wentz. So it's good spot for the Vikings. So
I get why the early money here is on them,
and I'll just be another spot. I'll be patient, not
going to force it. I'll take the plus the ear
three and a half. It gets there on this Pittsburgh side,

(12:49):
It's just a gross international game.

Speaker 3 (12:51):
But I love I love this for Tomlin.

Speaker 2 (12:54):
It's just this team is so Timeland where that they
should be owing three and that or somehow, like Chad said,
two and one, and it's it's the Pittsburgh Magic.

Speaker 1 (13:02):
By the way, put some respect on Mac Jones's name
because he did. He did win last week his second
week as a starter as a backup, which I liked.
And you know, you walk me back because you don't
believe in Mac the way I believe you didn't cover
in Big Mac. I believe in Big Mac. Here's my
question about the Steelers. Here's my question about the Steelers.

(13:27):
When in the past Tomlin magic worked because their defense
always found a way to strip, sack, get the interception.

Speaker 3 (13:35):
Just did this last week.

Speaker 1 (13:37):
I know, but sometimes like their defense was better when
they were doing it. To me, this felt like this
the Patriots handing into him, not so much the Steelers
defense making a play number one. Maybe look, maybe I'm
I'm picking nits.

Speaker 2 (13:52):
Here, tough number one, number two, We're on the same
page as that.

Speaker 3 (13:56):
But this is what they do every year. It's bizarre.
I know.

Speaker 1 (14:00):
I do wonder about Anna Rodgers, who's basically playing flat
footed against Brian Flores defense, which is you know, top
ten and pressure rate and bulitts rate.

Speaker 3 (14:10):
Yeah, no, that's what I mean.

Speaker 2 (14:11):
It's the early money here makes sense to be on
the Vikings. I agree with that. I just I can't
get over back and went again in the spot.

Speaker 1 (14:19):
LA Chargers, the dominant LA Chargers, the Chargers who are
breaking our hearts at the New York Football Giants. Giants
are six point underdogs at home at hard Rock Debt
in New Jersey. Look, the game opened five and a half.
We're going to talk about you know what the sharp

(14:39):
side is in a second. But my question is I
want you to answer these questions, four questions. I want
you to answer them for me. Yes, no, yes, no questions.
Do we think Justin Herbert is better than Patrick Mahomes
right now?

Speaker 3 (14:56):
No?

Speaker 1 (14:57):
Do we think the Chargers receiving corps is better than
the Chiefs receiving core right now?

Speaker 3 (15:02):
Yes.

Speaker 1 (15:03):
Do we think the Chargers defense can be as effective
as the Chiefs defense right now?

Speaker 3 (15:10):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (15:11):
Do we have the Chargers power rated ahead of the
Chiefs right now?

Speaker 3 (15:16):
Of course, of course yes.

Speaker 1 (15:19):
So isn't it interesting that the Chargers are the same
favorites in terms of point spread as the Chiefs were
last week when the Chargers are clearly a better team
than the Chiefs are right now, I'd be very curious
to see where you have this power rated because it
feels to me like the Chargers, you know, completely based

(15:42):
on the ratings and what the Chiefs were last week
and what the Giants did should be a little bit
bigger favorites to me.

Speaker 3 (15:52):
It's fair.

Speaker 2 (15:53):
Yeah, I believe I had the Chiefs, I'd have to
look almost posive head it at six or six and
a half. And that's why I said at six and
a half, you want to ta get giants understood, of
we said all a week the five and a half
was aside, and Chad knows me.

Speaker 3 (16:04):
I was just terrified of Mahomes winning big. So I
end up just really being heavy on the money line
the Chiefs. There.

Speaker 2 (16:09):
This this is different, where this is Chargers versus bad team.
I have this a minus seven. This is the type
of team that they beat twenty to seven or twenty
to three. Like, this is totally Herbert might not have
his best game. You saw you can get pass rush
against the Chargers right there. That was my whole thing
liking Denver there, like there was gonna be ways to
get after Herbert, which you know that final drop we

(16:35):
talked about that was like that's why everyone, all of
us all hype them, because.

Speaker 1 (16:40):
That's that's why for me. For me, he's a top
ten quarterback.

Speaker 2 (16:45):
Yeah, but that's not even saying much he's done anything.
Congrats on having him as your top two.

Speaker 1 (16:50):
From you don't have them in your top ten.

Speaker 3 (16:53):
I've in my top twelve.

Speaker 1 (16:55):
Oh by the way, when I made the argument that
Dak Prescott was in my top twelve, You're like, come.

Speaker 2 (16:59):
On, you just gave out your top twelve and you
had Tua ahead of Dak. I think you had Stafford
at eleven. Again, Chad, you don't wan to bring up
the QB rankings. You are terrible at the QB rankings.

Speaker 3 (17:08):
One year young, All I know.

Speaker 1 (17:09):
Is all I know is I and Herbert in my
top ten.

Speaker 3 (17:13):
Congrats and he still doesn't want anything.

Speaker 1 (17:18):
You can't argue against this guy, continue with your.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
With your argued against. I said he's been good in September.
It's like you guys always doing his career in the playoffs.
Chat's taking a victory.

Speaker 3 (17:28):
Lab.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
Also, Chad didn't have Hurts in the top ten last year.
Great call, Chad, you're killing it.

Speaker 3 (17:34):
Keep it up.

Speaker 1 (17:35):
I had hurts this year in the top ten.

Speaker 3 (17:36):
Wow. Great you won the super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (17:38):
Oh, don't get don't get pussy with me. Continue with
your analysis.

Speaker 3 (17:43):
Please what you wanted. You want to bring up Q ranks.
You're a terrible LAB every year. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (17:48):
Herbert's aside, like, I think our contest will be five
and a half because I was the opening line.

Speaker 3 (17:53):
I will be very tempted to put them in Sunday.

Speaker 2 (17:55):
It's just a good number and a team that should
have lost this week. Huge win if you're trying to
catch them here, right, because I think they're what three
to oh ats so historically probably a bad spot. But
it's just interesting where it's five and a half six
against this Giants team.

Speaker 3 (18:13):
You know, this should be a really good match for them.

Speaker 2 (18:15):
It's like they have a suffcading defense and an offense
that can move the ball against this type of defense
to the Giants EP. So yeah, I think your early
readers right probably should be seven. They're kind of giving
their respect to the Chiefs because that was such a
prime time area spot, I guess. But early money obviously
charges here. I'm like, looking at the Splits, it's same.

Speaker 3 (18:36):
Thing as the Chiefs. It's all all Chargers' money.

Speaker 2 (18:38):
So I think we're gonna start seeing a pattern here
of the the Pros, the Sharps. They're gonna like the
Giants side every week and the squares like we are,
we will try to feed this giant side every week
because we just we just think they're bad.

Speaker 1 (18:50):
Isn't that weird? Like why why aren't people able to
walk away from the Giants. It's totally got Panthers vibes.
And maybe by the second half of the year, that's
when the tide will turn a little bit and this
defense will be a little bit better, and you know,
the offense maybe can be more effective, which is what
happened with the Panthers last year. But they're trash right now,

(19:13):
and I do think with the Chargers, I think Jim
Harbaugh mitigates a lot of the emotional swings that befall
a lot of teams in this position. The way he
manages his team, the way he coaches his team. He's
so sharp with the rules, like he's not gonna there's

(19:34):
not going to be something that they don't take advantage
of that might wreck other teams that don't have him
as a coach. I think he's just really good.

Speaker 3 (19:44):
He's incredible. Yeah. I love guys who like football, and
guys who like football they like me back. I like
them back, even guys that don't like football. I mean
they try to avoid me because I'm always trying to
get them to like football more.

Speaker 1 (19:56):
I wanted to make this Chad loves. It scares me
a little bit because it's so chalky it is.

Speaker 3 (20:05):
You could be getting the best of the number where
this could easily get up to seven. I kick.

Speaker 2 (20:09):
I mean like that was the thing I was spooky
about the Chiefs, where it's like I couldn't believe we
were still getting the five and a half that Sunday night,
and it's like this is such a good number and
a matchup they should win. And you can't always be
scared off, right, Chiefs rule, but was it twenty two
to nine? And it's like, I gotta trust your guys.
So that was again a great call by you last week.

Speaker 3 (20:25):
If you want any chargers, I'm not going to fight
you off.

Speaker 2 (20:28):
I told you if it's five and a half chat,
I'll probably be with you on Sunday getting in our contest.

Speaker 1 (20:33):
I might want to come back to it. I'm going
to come back to it, all right. Uh you helped
talk me into that, and it was it was one
of like three or four that I'm debating. I didn't
have a consensus yet, Carolina. At New England the line
is five and a half right now. What's weird is
the line moved up four and a half to five
and a half with the wise guys coming in on

(20:54):
New England. Do you feel like that's the sharp side here?

Speaker 3 (20:59):
Definitely?

Speaker 2 (21:00):
Definitely, though definitely because I couldn't believe this number. My
model has a step four. But I'm not gonna I'm
not gonna get sucked in on this one because it
is Do we want to back the Panthers out there?
Just won thirty nothing against the raable team that once
again is very desperate in a corner, and like you
said had the worst turnover luck ever a prior week.

(21:21):
I mean two red zone, end zone turnovers, just absolute killers.
But that's what it's gonna be like with a young
quarterback in Drake May and running backs that just have
fumbling issues.

Speaker 3 (21:35):
And you know, the.

Speaker 2 (21:36):
Brutal part for the pitturetright now was the kid they
took Henderson, who was insane amount of talent.

Speaker 3 (21:40):
They can't get them on the field because it can't
pass blocked right.

Speaker 2 (21:43):
And that's always the scariest part of these teams taking
these kids out of college because some of these kids
are so good they never had to pass block right.
If they were on the field, they were getting the
ball and if a guy was blitzing, they would just
flank him out of the backfield.

Speaker 3 (21:56):
They never had to hit the guy up the middle.
So it's a little nerve wrecking.

Speaker 2 (22:01):
Like I honestly wanted to be on the Panther As
soon as I saw this line again, I didn't bet it.

Speaker 3 (22:04):
I was like, that's a Panther's line. We got to
do the Panthers.

Speaker 2 (22:07):
Like Chad said, it's moved up from four to four
and a half to five and a half for a
couple of books.

Speaker 3 (22:13):
Yeah, hard rock. Looking at it right now, it's up
to five and a half, so it gets a six.

Speaker 2 (22:18):
I don't know, maybe I won't be patient enough I
have to take this Panthers team. But I can tell
you the professional side is the Patriots. This is a
Patriots line, Patriot's number. But I just I can't get
over the fact that Panthers are undervalued. But yeah, it's
it's interesting this number is this big because I don't
know about you. I view these teams at the same
I think they're both, you know, bottom tier teams that

(22:39):
any week can be good if they get the right
QB play, but overall they're just not trustworthy.

Speaker 1 (22:44):
Yeah, I'm kind of surprised this line didn't open closer
to three or three and a half. To be honest,
it opened really big, which was surprising to me. And
that's why the move was surprising to me that it
went so heavy in the Patriots direction. And I don't
know if it's people looking at this game as the
Panthers were basically handed a game and won and didn't

(23:05):
really have to do anything outside of themselves to win it.
All they had to do was not screw it up,
and the Patriots flip side handed the game away. You
just mentioned it. They had a Drake May interception in
the end zone when they were driving for a touchdown.
They had a Remandre Stevenson fumble as he was about

(23:26):
to cross the goal line. Five overall turnovers. They didn't
recover any of their fumbles. That in itself is sort
of crazy crazy, right, Like you can force fumbles and
that as a skill, but recovery of the fumbles is
entirely luck. They had two other turnovers that were in
Steelers territory, including a Drake May fumble when they were driving,

(23:50):
which led to the Steelers game winning score. So I
can see why the number moved a little bit because
betters have to believe that the Pats will just be
less unlucky and the Panthers won't be as lucky, but
awfully high for a quarterback and Drake May, who we
have refused to bet on because we just don't believe

(24:12):
he can execute for a full sixty minutes.

Speaker 3 (24:15):
Yeah, there's a lot of fishy lines this week. This
is one of them.

Speaker 1 (24:19):
Fishy, fishy, stink stinks Philadelphia at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
is a three point dog. This one May be at
three at hard Rock, but it is three and a
half in a lot of places and moving in the
Eagles direction. And this one I want to ask you
specifically about because you highlighted this on Sunday night, before

(24:40):
we even started talking about games. You were saying it
was the week to fade the Eagles. I bet the
Bucks at plus three. Why is this line moving? Is
it the Eagles O line? Like are the Bucks O line?
Why is it going in the opposite direction?

Speaker 3 (24:55):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (24:55):
I think it's injuries. And this is a jersey. Hard
Rock is three and a half now on Tampa probably.

Speaker 3 (25:01):
In your hands is gonna be three and a half.
I probably should do it. I'll make it. Simon says,
give me Tampa three and a half.

Speaker 1 (25:06):
Wow, call me, Simon, what do you want?

Speaker 3 (25:10):
I want to play a game? What kind of game?

Speaker 2 (25:14):
Simon says, this really is to me just based on injuries.
We talked about the books. They've been lucky. They could
easily be Owen three. They're three and oh and the
bookmakers know it's only been going for so long. On
the flip side, this Eagles team, I think they've been
very lucky.

Speaker 3 (25:32):
They could easily be owing three. So I have a
very skewed view in this.

Speaker 2 (25:37):
Tampa has always played the Eagle as well, just as
an Eagles fan, it feels like every time we go
down there, we lose. I have to look up because
I don't know if that's true, but it feels like
for some reason, every year we play them, because every
year we either win our division or we're just scheduled
against them, and we go down to Tampa, it's one
hundred and ten degrees and we just get smoked. I
mean last year I can remember vividly, we got embarrassed
and they helped us though changed our entire offense because

(25:59):
of them. And this Tampa team has major injury star
offensive line, they have injuries to the secondary.

Speaker 3 (26:05):
They might be without Mike Evans.

Speaker 2 (26:07):
That's why this number is gonna keep moving like there's
a couple of games this week that a lot of
lines have moved because of injuries. So I'm gonna grab
the three and a half just in case the professionals
do come in and hit this back down to three,
which where I think, even with all the injuries, I
think that's where it should be. Because the Eagles have
their own injuries as well. They might be down. They're
already terrible number two and number three cornerbacks against an

(26:28):
offense with Baker that Okay, you take out Mike Evans,
there's gonna be no Godwin. We saw him last year
without Mike Evans and Godwin and just no names, and
he won the division. He pushed it downfield like there
are just a bunch of ways this team in the
bucks and attack you. And the Eagles right now, as
great as they looked last week, we talked about it,

(26:49):
there's so many of the things that went their way.
As unlucky as they were in the first half, was
very lucky in the second half.

Speaker 3 (26:54):
So championship pedigree.

Speaker 2 (26:56):
All respect to the Eagles team, I do think they'll
win this game somehow at the end.

Speaker 3 (27:00):
It's just what hurts does.

Speaker 2 (27:01):
But now that we have the hook three and a half,
I mean, this is another one on Sunday. Is gonna
be very, very tempted to put this in our contest
just it's going to be all Eagles and money, all
the teachers, all the parlays, the public is going to
be all over this Eagle team. Because don't know about you, Chad,
and I'm not the biggest social media person it felt
like every sucker in the world was complaining about their

(27:21):
Rams bet that loss last week and how it was
the worst beat of their lifetime, and it's.

Speaker 3 (27:25):
Like they don't get it. They're just a cog in
the machine.

Speaker 2 (27:28):
They probably have this every other week, worst bet of
their lives, worst bet of the year. So no one
like we're gonna talk about the Rams get coming up.
No one's going to be on them, but everyone that
loss of this Eagle team is going to be on them.
And they know the injury report of this Bucks team.
So this is for sharp and square. The square side
can be the Eagles, very very sharp side's going to
be this Tampa team. But respect to the professionals, they've

(27:51):
been taking the two and a half that was out
there on this Eagles team. They took it right away.
Some of them were even taking the three. So yeah,
three and a half. I feel like it is a
really good number for us to be taken on the spot.

Speaker 1 (28:01):
Yeah, I actually like it at three and a half.
And there are reports that Tristan Wurf's, their left tackle,
could be back. There are reports by the way that
Chris Godwin could be bad.

Speaker 2 (28:10):
I know, And that's how I'm wrapping now because, like
you just said, it could move.

Speaker 1 (28:14):
Totally could move. And by the way, thank god, you're
not spending too much time on social media. I feel
like when I was at ESPN, so much of my
job had to be policing talent who would get angry
at people who said things to them on social media

(28:36):
and then have to tell them why they can't do that.
I feel like I would spend all my time telling
you why you can't do that on social media.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
Well, now you can't see people's legs, So anytime a
hater says anything to you and I do see, I
give it a like because I just think it's all
kind of funny where it's like, you know, again, before
the games are over, people tell you how stupid your
picks are and then they win and they's just either
tim or they block you, and it's like okay.

Speaker 1 (28:59):
Guy Washington, Atlanta. So on Sunday night, this was the
first bet I made. I took the Falcons plus three simon.
If we're talking Sharper square, this was a sharp move
because it's down to two and a half. I don't
know if I like it as much at two and
a half.

Speaker 2 (29:16):
No, I would say, if you had confident at three,
still be confident two and a half.

Speaker 3 (29:20):
But I told you I don't. I don't know where
to go with this one.

Speaker 2 (29:25):
I needed more time to watch the Penix film terrible
wish I didn't watch it. I feel like if I
didn't watch it, I would go all over the number.
But my view was I didn't want to make a
move on it because I need to know what the
health is with Jane Daniels. And to me, your early
reader's right right of the Washington blowout now on the
road against an Atlanta team that day, which you want

(29:47):
about Penix, He's actually played well at home and again
extremely small sample size, but I just even when we
talk on it, I was like, there's no way I'm
gonna end up having this one be one of our fives.
And let's Atlanta got up to five or six in
our contest where Daniels got it got cleared, and just
people extremely overvalued Washington. This feels like a Daniels is

(30:10):
going to play number right.

Speaker 1 (30:12):
Yeah, and most of the reports are that he will,
and Ian Rappaport, you know, even even said that it
was likely on Sunday that he would play the following week.
So I don't think if anything here is changing, I
think it's going to end up being at two and
a half. You're right about Penix, Like there was zero

(30:32):
to like about that game against the Panthers, Like they
couldn't convert on short fields following Panther fumbles, they missed
multiple field goals. Here's what I don't get. Guess who
got fired this week?

Speaker 3 (30:48):
Yeah, it was weird right there, wide receiver Cord they fired.

Speaker 1 (30:50):
I kill your their wide receivers coach. Yeah, is that?
Like Michael Penix doesn't have any touchdown passes to wide receivers,
He's got one Robinson.

Speaker 3 (31:00):
Believing that guy.

Speaker 1 (31:01):
But I Killard when Michael Pennix is off of it
his worst game in a short sample size as a pro,
and I Killard is the guy who's the scapegoat. And
you give the wide receiver responsibility to the quarterbacks coach
who had been the wide receivers coach before, Like, what's
that about? That feels like that feels like sort of

(31:26):
corporate scapegoating to me.

Speaker 2 (31:28):
Okay, So because I didn't even when I first saw
that initial report, I just thought, again, always negative in
my mindset of Okay, he either broke some type of
law or something went on behind the scenes that we
don't know about. Because, like Chad just said, you don't
see the wide receiver coach go fired a week three.
It's that's a really random guy to blame. So I'm
with you on that that is one of the weird firing.

Speaker 1 (31:48):
So that even though I'm on the Falcons at three,
and it's because of the number, the reason I don't
like it because that just feels like scapegoating, excuse making
inside an organization where are flailing. You know, they brought
in Kirk Cousins, the coaches frustrated. Something about that just
doesn't feel right to me, you know. Then again, the

(32:12):
reason I bet the Falcons at plus three yesterday, I'm
doing my research and I saw this in the Arizona
Republic from a game right up from yesterday, and it
was clear the Arizona Republic was just trying to win
some SEO battle so they could be ranked first. When
you type in like give me analysis of the Commander's Falcons,

(32:35):
this was the write up and this is why I
bet it at plus three on Sunday night. It's logic
like this will Jade and Daniels play for the Commanders
in this game. Will it even matter? Marcus Mariota proved
to be more than a capable backup in Washington's NFL
Week three win over the Las Vegas Raiders, and the
Falcons couldn't even score against the Panthers. That is the
look of someone who read the box score, saw the

(32:58):
final score, wrote something as squeaks they could and has
no idea what they're talking about. That's why you bet
the Falcons plus three.

Speaker 3 (33:05):
There you go, that's it.

Speaker 1 (33:07):
I know you love trends. I did look on Killer
Sports NFL teams off a loss of twenty eight or more.
Falcons got blown out against the team who won by
seventeen or more. Basically a blowout fifty eight percent against
spread since nineteen eighty nine.

Speaker 3 (33:24):
Yeah, that makes sense. That's all one spot I got.

Speaker 1 (33:27):
I got one more for you after later in the show.
Cleveland at Detroit. Detroit is now an eight and a
half point favorite. Strange game because this was at ten
on Sunday on Saturday morning before the Browns game and
the Packers, and then it got down to seven after
the Browns won, moved back up to nine last night

(33:47):
after the Lions win now down to eight and a half.
I got thoughts. I want them to be the same
thoughts that you have, so tell me what yours are.

Speaker 2 (34:00):
I've I was praying even though we were on the lines,
I was praying that the Lions did lose, they would
get rolled because this was going to be the most
amazing line spot because it's it's indoors on a track,
and that's that's all you need to know about this
Lin's offense. There's ways to attack that the line of
that Lion's team when you get in this exact scenario

(34:20):
where outdoors at home we have we've seen the sample
now like two games of them outdoors at home. You
can now mess with this Browns defense. It's just a
totally different team. And I can't wait to see the
splits at the end of the year if this is
truly going to be our our our way with the
scene that we fade them on the road, we back
them at home, because you know, I ten, Like Chad

(34:41):
said on Saturday, I did make a bet the look
ahead on the Browns very small obviously, but I was
like thinking that you know, this will come down, Like
we said seven and a half, that makes more sense.

Speaker 3 (34:53):
So if you want to take the Browns eight and
a half, I get it.

Speaker 2 (34:56):
I got this right at nine and a half, so
I do have it as a line line, but I
just think situationally, matchup wise, this is very, very favorite
towards this Lion's offense and the Browns offensive.

Speaker 3 (35:10):
I just don't if they can keep up.

Speaker 2 (35:11):
But the fear for me will always just be we're
back in the Lion's team that just had a historical night.
I think it was like some insane stat It was
the first time that the Rains had given up a
ninety yard drive at home in like ten years. The
Lions did it twice, so you saw the best possible
game the Lions could play in prime time. And like

(35:34):
Chad just said, this number has come down like there's
still a professional smart money coming on the Cleveland side.

Speaker 3 (35:40):
So another line I'll be patient with.

Speaker 2 (35:43):
I can't see it getting that much higher, and we're
already in the dead zone here, like eight and a
half is the key number.

Speaker 3 (35:49):
If it gets a nine and half, I don't care.

Speaker 2 (35:50):
It's no different than me betting the Lions at eight
and a half. So I'll be patient, like the Lions
here like their offense.

Speaker 3 (35:58):
Just do the Lions show me what I need to
see last.

Speaker 2 (36:00):
That they can still run the ball and that that
offensive weapons between the Porta Almon, Rod Williams. It's just
it's just so deadly when it's all clicking for that
Lions team. So yeah, it's uh, I'm not gonna let
the big spread scare me off.

Speaker 3 (36:13):
I'll go a little truck here pick this Lion side.
Hello Detroit, you.

Speaker 1 (36:22):
I'm so glad you said that. So glad you said that.
There's a little bit of clarity after three weeks, right,
more than you have after two weeks. And what we
had last night was an example of the raven The
Raven's defense is troubled and we're going to talk about that.
But the Browns offense was so bad and so ineffective.

(36:48):
It could not move the ball against this Ravens defense
that has now been pretty much blown up by the
Lions and by the Bills.

Speaker 3 (36:56):
That's fair.

Speaker 1 (36:57):
So to me, I'm looking at this and thinking the
Lions defense and their past rush was pretty good last night,
and they were pretty efective against Lamar. You're getting a
much better team that loves to run up the score
and go full throttle at home, and they're feeling themselves

(37:19):
right now, and they're coming home against a team where
they know they can sort of assert dominance. And they're
now two and one and they got the Packers at
two and one, and this thing's wide freaking open.

Speaker 2 (37:36):
It's a tiebreaker game now, which is even crazy to
think if they win this that can be helped. The
tiebreaker at the end of the season were Green Bay,
which is just bizarre world.

Speaker 1 (37:44):
So I love the Lions here. Oh gosh, oh gosh.

Speaker 2 (37:52):
Say the poor Browns, Like I know, we talked about
how bad the Giants had to start the year. The
fact that the Browns have had to go you know,
a Bangal team Joe Burrow, then Green Bay and then
you know they're Ravens, now the Lions. It's just the
schedule makers, man, It's just I feel bad for some
of these teams. They just they started the year. They
were just like, Nope, you're gonna be zero and four,
one and three, no matter what.

Speaker 1 (38:11):
The question is, do I wait for the Lions to
get to eight because it could get there, Like That's.

Speaker 2 (38:16):
Why I said I said be patient, Like there, I
just I don't see it getting back to ten. I know,
I know some really smart professionals who are on this
brown side, and it's really about what we talked about
last week. It's just their D line is going to
be an insane problem for all these different teams that
have a little bit of questions at you know, guard positions,
which this is.

Speaker 3 (38:37):
You know, there's some questions about the lines in tier line.

Speaker 2 (38:40):
I know it didn't look at last week, but you
know they've improved three straight weeks.

Speaker 3 (38:43):
That's where we're banking.

Speaker 2 (38:44):
All this lines in tier line they keep they've gotten better,
they've gotten more in rhythm here, and you know, tons
of respect. Mason Graham, Miles Garrett are front four. We
know the deal with this brown steam, but I love
they were on the same Patriot's indoor. It's gonna be
a track meet. It's gonna be tons of points and
Joe Flacco you cannot keep up.

Speaker 1 (39:00):
With that, can't. My worry is that they bring in
Dylan Gabriel and that changes the scope a little bit
and he gets garbage time points and whatever I'm gonna
I'm gonna walk away and try to temper some of
my enthusiasm and not go all in on a team.
That just had a massive win on Monday Night. I
think the number is a little bit skewed. I think

(39:20):
that it should be closer to ten, to be honest.
Uh So, I still like the Lions, but I want
to wait until I can get a better number patients patients.

Speaker 3 (39:28):
Right, that's all our favorites, Like, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (39:31):
I know that's that's what's that's honestly what. I couldn't
make a a sort of choice yet because I keep
looking at this and I like the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (39:43):
Yea, like the I liked.

Speaker 1 (39:45):
I like the Lions. Like, let's talk about Tennessee Houston.
Houston is a seven point favorite. Here's how I think
we've grown you. Ready. Two years ago, I knew you
like when I go deep. Two years ago. I think
we automatically would have bet the Titans as Division home
dogs against the Colts this past weekend, but we didn't.

(40:08):
Right last year, we would have passed on the game
entirely instead of fading the Titans when they were playing
like trash. This year, we did the right thing. We
faded the Titans, and we bet on the Colts. The
Titans are now three and seventeen against the spread. With
Brian Callahan as their coach the last season, plus three

(40:30):
games this past weekend. They couldn't even get a field
goal off at the end of the first half because
they were too disorganized for the operation. This is a penalty.
It got moved back, they missed the field goal. The
offensive line, which we hoped would have been a strength,
is just atrocious against pressure, which is something that Texans
do well.

Speaker 3 (40:52):
C J.

Speaker 1 (40:52):
Stroud is seeing ghosts here on footsteps. Theirs success rates
amongst the worst in the NFL. The Titans are worse.
But what's more frightening for me about the Texans offense
is that they're not terrible against pressure. And that's and
yet CJ is still feeling the footsteps. So I don't

(41:14):
know what to do here. Tell me what sharp, Tell
me what's square, because I'm kind of at a loss.

Speaker 2 (41:19):
Yeah, I'm happy passing this one. I would say the Sharps,
I probably will be Tennessee. Like you said, they're going
to be undervalued here, and their biggest weakness looks like
it's against the run. You still can't run the ball,
so that right there, it's like, okay, there at least
is something you can bank on with this. Tennessee team
that their biggest weakness maybe won't be exposed in this matchup.

(41:39):
And it's just an insane number, like the fact that
this ozer and three Houston team is minus seven at
home against Tennessee. I can't believe the Tennessee is viewed
that poorly by the bookmakers, Like I have this line
four and a half, so I'm.

Speaker 3 (41:55):
Way off of it.

Speaker 2 (41:56):
I like the Tennessee's I would Chad just said, I
just even last week, I get it, it was a Tennessee
spot quote unquote, but I just couldn't get there with
the coaching staff and all their weaknesses. And it's the
same thing here where the number makes sense. They are
insanely undervalued against a bad Houston's team that's being overvalued
propped up. It feels the same because of what they

(42:16):
did last year, right like and even this year their
defense has been good, but overall, man, it's that offense
and that's a huge number for a struggling offense to cover.
And we know the deals CJ, like you know there's
Stroud has got issues right now. So yeah, yeah, I
just can't be confident back in this side, even though
I'm really tempted to because It just feels like the

(42:39):
books are telling themselves making this such a big number,
that this is a Houston game in a Houston spot.
But I'll just avoid this one like the plague hopefully
and want them to bet on it and that because
if I bet on I'm gonna have to put it
on one of my TVs. And I just I don't
have to watch this game. I've I experienced Houston last
week and that was enough for me. So yeah, I'm
happy that we can pass on this one.

Speaker 1 (42:58):
Corner TV game. The meme that's going around UH this
past week is where CJ. Stroud was talking to Caleb
Williams last year and saying, keep your head up, you know,
stop making these mistakes or you're going to do great,
like all this parental advice, and then someone has thrown
a stat box up of how CJ is done since

(43:21):
that game versus Caleb, and Caleb is just better in
every metric.

Speaker 3 (43:25):
You'll accept the major ones, which is win.

Speaker 1 (43:27):
This division, which just winning winning his division and winning
in the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (43:29):
Yeah yeah, you and your I know the things that matter.

Speaker 2 (43:34):
Who cares you and your winning ways?

Speaker 3 (43:37):
I need stats, I need I need touchdowns.

Speaker 1 (43:41):
I need superficial numbers. Okay, New Orleans at Buffalo. Oh god, dude,
hear me out. Okay, we've talked about, like in Favorites.
You flagged this on Sunday night when it was at
fifteen and a half and said your ratings would likely
have it at sixteen. Yeah, well now it's at sixteen

(44:01):
and a half.

Speaker 2 (44:02):
The initial reads right though, like I thought my motto
would have this at seventeen seventeen and a half. It does,
it has it's seventeen and a half. So I'll still
take this bull side.

Speaker 3 (44:11):
But this is just.

Speaker 2 (44:12):
Another game where Chad knows me, like I'll just be
a coward. I'll probably have a ton of either alternated
lines like I'll break this down to six and a
half or five and a half or Bill's money line
bet it that way. But this will most likely be
our survivor pick. Like I love we check this so
we can just take off pick the obvious one. There's
just no world. There is no world where the rat

(44:33):
Spencer's Spencer Rattler beats Josh Allen on this spot at
home because, as you know, much as you want to think, well,
they have so many interests to their defense, right, the Bills.
They are susceptible to offensive like right now, like there
are injuries to their defense. We've seen it exploited basically
in every game they played this season. I guess the

(44:54):
Jets it wasn't, but you've seen that josh Awna has
to be Superman, so big spread like this with a
bad defense, I get by guys might be on the
same side. I just I can't get there. I like,
after last week, me and chat talk about it.

Speaker 3 (45:09):
When you don't have.

Speaker 2 (45:10):
A coach, which I don't think Kellen Moore is a
head coach and you don't have a quarterback, you're so
far behind. Now in the new NFL where it's like
these teams that go for it on their own thirty,
on their own twenty, you'll never they're never gonna be
in that position the Saints, And if they are in
that position, it's because they're already down by fourteen, like
they're just it's just all so bad.

Speaker 3 (45:32):
And I know that we knew come to.

Speaker 2 (45:33):
The season they were gonna they were trying to tank
for that first pick, But they fooled me a little
bit in their first two home games where it's like, oh,
I saw some fight I saw little heart. That Seahawks
game is a total other way. They quit immediately after
getting down by a couple points. So you got a
well rested Bills team hopefully gets healthy on defense, huge spread.

Speaker 3 (45:51):
I'm on the Bill side. Even my pick pulls.

Speaker 2 (45:53):
I've taken the Bills because, like you said, a lot
of my pickpulls locked in at fifteen and a half,
sixteen as long as yours is blow is seventeen. I
think it's a good number, a huge favorite against a
really bad team. And we've seen the new NFL's it's
a huge gap between these really good teams and there's
really bad teams. So nothing here to wrap my head
around for Back in the Saints elllier, then the Bills

(46:13):
have an injured defense and it's a big spread. I
just I wonder who's betting the Saint side of their
Then you're one buddy who just loves betting big dogs
and the professionals that are just like this. This is
a model of fourteen and a half, it's sixte and
a half. I'll take that number.

Speaker 1 (46:26):
I don't know who's modeling that like that anymore. If
you're not. If you are, then you're not paying attention
to the past couple of years.

Speaker 2 (46:33):
It's fucking to judge. Everyone's got their own models. Some
work I like Chaz are saying here that somewhere just
absolute dogshit.

Speaker 1 (46:39):
Well, I'm a judger, That's what I do. I like
the Bills. I'm probably going to bet the bills at
sixteen and a half, I'm with you. Today's show is
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(48:28):
nine with it gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia, Indy.
At the Los Angeles rams rams are rams are three
and a half. Let's get some context. Okay. The look

(48:48):
aheadline on this was six and a half back in May.
The Rams wow, six and a half point favorites right
May in May.

Speaker 3 (48:55):
Okay, in May.

Speaker 1 (48:57):
On Sunday night. On Sunday Night, it was four and
a half. You talked about a Sunday night you said
you're going to take the Colts at plus four and
a half. It was the sharp move. You know, it's
moved down to three and a half shortly after we
got off the air on Sunday Night Live show Movese lines.
That's not surprising because the Colts were dominant again on Sunday,
but the Titans team is clearly pretty bad. What I'm

(49:20):
trying to figure out is what is the edge for
the Rams? Right? The Colts have gotten given up just
two sacks all season while being blitzed more than any
team in the league. The blitz right against the Colts
is higher than any other team. The Rams edge has
been their pressure and their their pressure rate in their
pass rush. So my question becomes, are we playing with
fire like we are three weeks in? How much of

(49:44):
your ratings on the Colts moved to give you confidence
betting the Colts in this game?

Speaker 3 (49:51):
I mean it's through a lot.

Speaker 2 (49:52):
I got very lucky though that I was. I mean,
people can go back, or I guess you can.

Speaker 3 (49:56):
But I said that if the Colts had made the movie.

Speaker 2 (49:59):
In the Jones I was mean much higher on that team,
and I never saw it being what it's become where
it's like he's doing some payton.

Speaker 3 (50:07):
Manny didn't do paynon.

Speaker 2 (50:08):
Manny had the most juggernaut insane offenses. Like I look
back to my childhood of like this pan Mann in
years my teenagers, it was like he was the goat.
He was the greatest, even though Daniel Jones has done
better and broken all his numbers early here, and it's like,
that's that's the Shane steck envision. That's what he's just
been pound the table, that if he just had the
right guy, that they had the pieces there to make

(50:30):
it all work.

Speaker 3 (50:31):
So Colts couldn't be.

Speaker 2 (50:33):
Higher the vibes right now, And that's what I bet
that opening line. I couldn't believe it was four and
a half, and I just knew there's no.

Speaker 3 (50:40):
Chance it would go up. But I am firmly on
the Rams side.

Speaker 2 (50:44):
Here you are, yeah, And this was almost as Sigmon says,
but I think we can be patient and we might
get the three like we did with the Eagles, which
again didn't matter.

Speaker 3 (50:54):
But that's my job.

Speaker 2 (50:55):
I'm just trying to get you people the best number
I have possibly can here, and this, to me looks
number that could keep coming down because I think a
lot of what you said is true, that the general
public and professionals alike will be on that cold side
with that number, because through three weeks they have looked
like the better side, and they look like a pretty
even team. I know it sounds crazy to say, but like,

(51:18):
they're not that different than this Rams team when all
of a sudden done. The biggest weakness to me is
this Colt secondary can be attacked. You saw though Knicks
miss thick throws again against this Colts team. They had
to settle for field goals that Stafford usually doesn't miss.
And that Eagles game, like I said, every little thing

(51:40):
went wrong and McVeigh he played like a coward.

Speaker 3 (51:42):
He really did. Where like in that second half he
took the field goals.

Speaker 2 (51:46):
Yeah, yeah, like he just he just went so safe
conservative against the team that if you give them a
little bit of life, they took it from him. So
I see this as being a spot that even if
they get up, they'll keep laying it on this Rams team.
And I look at this matchup wise, I think it
does come down, honestly to Jonathan Taylor as much as
I do give respect to Daniel Jones. If they can

(52:08):
get their running game going, then they can do stuff
off play action. That's where you've seen Daniel Jones ridly
excel because he's getting outside the pocket and he either
has a deep down the field read and Warren or
Pittman in the middle of the field, or he picks
up that five seven yards on that first down of
his legs. And that's been so huge for that Colts
team where it's like it's what Anthony Richardon couldn't do.

(52:28):
He always just took the run or he couldn't make
that middle level throw. Daniel Jones has been doing both perfectly.
So I get the love. The vibes are super high
for this Colts team. But like the Rams were faded
last week, this is such a RAMS spot in a
RAMS number. Of course, no one's taking the Rams minus
three and a half right now, right They're just they're
all gonna be taking the Colts numbers.

Speaker 3 (52:49):
So I'm gonna be patient here.

Speaker 2 (52:51):
Love the Rams well when we remember a serious discussion Sunday,
I maybe will make us force this one in because
they're probably one of my favorite favorite bets this week, this.

Speaker 3 (52:58):
Rams side, and I just love their matchup.

Speaker 2 (53:01):
Matchup offensively and like you said, defensively, there are ways
that the Daniel Jones can exploit them. But you're banking
on Daniel Jones to play very well for four straight weeks.
That is, in the NFL, only the very top level
guys can say consistent weekend week out.

Speaker 3 (53:18):
So like you said, it's scared. We're standing.

Speaker 2 (53:20):
We're stepping in front of obviously the hottest team, well
one of the hottest teams on football. But I'm gonna
trust the numbers here, trust that they're overvalued, and trust
that this is a cold same Colts team.

Speaker 3 (53:29):
That you know should have lost to Denver. That's that's
fair to say.

Speaker 2 (53:35):
And uh, they're a team that's kind of being overvalid
because they beat up on a really bad Miami team,
beat up a really bad Tennessee team, played well against
a pretty good Denver team where the Rams, they showed
last week they're a legit good team against like they'd
showed against the Egos team, and I think we're getting
a nice Bilo spot here on this Rams team.

Speaker 1 (53:54):
Yeah, in everything you just said to sum it up,
it sounds like we're betting this. We're not betting anything
about the matchup. We're not bet anything about the teams.
We're not even thinking about any advantages the Rams may
have maybe a little bit against the Colts secondary, but
I agree with you. I didn't want to bet the
Colts at all, even at four and a half. I've

(54:16):
just been trying to figure out how to get to
the Rams because I love them in this spot, totally
love them, and.

Speaker 3 (54:26):
Bring me on the four and a half of the Colts.

Speaker 2 (54:28):
Be patient, then wait for the three because that's a
real middle, Like that's a nice little middle. The books
you're giving you, and they usually don't move it that
much because they hate give them them middles. But I'm
checking right now and it's all the money. It's all
in the Colts. So, like I said, professionals, Joe Public,
they're all coming in and across the board. Every book

(54:49):
right now is three and a half on this number,
So just be patient. I think one will pop us.
We'll be able to get that three on this rams side.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
I'm going to wait. I'm with you. I'll end up
betting the three and a half. I entered never last week.
I never got the Eagles three in Connecticut. I couldn't
get it, so I had to bet the three and
a half. I bet it on Sunday morning. I was
walking my dog and I started to see the juice
moving the direction that was going to move the number
back to four. I'm like, oh, Jesus Christ, I'm just

(55:20):
going to bet it right now. And I was miserable
for about fifty nine minutes. Jacksonville at San Francisco. San
Francisco forty nine ers minus three minus one twenty at
hard Rock bet Listen. The news out of San Francisco
is that Nick Bosa is out for the year with
the torn Aco Here's the question you have to ask,

(55:45):
has any team had more high profile injuries to more
key players over the past five, six, seven years than
the Niners.

Speaker 3 (55:55):
Now they have the worst injury luck, and it's not close.
It's insane.

Speaker 2 (55:57):
This year was supposed to be the year they were
healthy because theyd such bad injury luck last year.

Speaker 1 (56:01):
But at some point, don't we have to sort of
ask the question, like, is there something going on with
the trainer, how they how they treat their players. Not
that I want to be defamatory, but I've heard for years.

Speaker 3 (56:15):
I've honestly heard that for years.

Speaker 2 (56:17):
You have yeah about the forty nine ers, and yeah,
I just I'm with you, Like it's interesting they have
all these soft tissue, soft tissue injuries.

Speaker 3 (56:27):
The most of one obviously is just bad luck.

Speaker 2 (56:30):
But yeah, this this game another game where I just
couldn't believe this opening line.

Speaker 3 (56:36):
To me, it's a pretty line.

Speaker 1 (56:37):
So yeah, because it gotten up to four and a
half after the game. Oh okay, at it got up
to four and a half on on after the games
on uh Sunday, and then the buyback started happening.

Speaker 2 (56:49):
Maybe it's not then, maybe it is a mac Joins line,
but I I have this if it's pretty, I have
some minus sticks. And I know there's a ton of
injuries this foreign enters team. Sala is like he might
be the best defensive coaching football. I know Flores is
unreal and Fangs isn't incredible for the Eagles, but like,
I can't get over the schemes and the stuff he's

(57:10):
doing with the talent they have on this Farings team,
which I talked about coming the year.

Speaker 3 (57:13):
They're a very young defense.

Speaker 1 (57:15):
And.

Speaker 2 (57:17):
He highlight whatever guys are good at. He just highlighted
so well. And they bringing these free agents and solids
just made them be so much better than they were
where they previously came from. So I just this is
totally like a pretty bed, but it's also just a
solid bet. This defense against this Jaguars offense that just
feels constipated, just not right, And.

Speaker 3 (57:38):
I just do not like this spot at all for
this Jacks team.

Speaker 2 (57:40):
Where I thought this was gonna be a way more
public side. Will see as the week goes along as here,
but every prop I've talked to was just like me,
they're on this forty nine ers team. So this could
be another chart first ware where the public is very
square on this. This Jaguars side taking a public dog
here and this forty nine ers team got away with
one last week, but I look at this matchup that's

(58:03):
very favorable to them and McCaffrey. I saw some crazy
stat where he's like leading the league in touches and
he could break if he keeps at this pace, or break.

Speaker 3 (58:11):
The NFL record for touches.

Speaker 2 (58:13):
But that's what they should be doing when you watch
he is such a difference maker to that offense and
everything should run through him. Just wear him out like
he got him. We've seen h McCaffrey when he's healthy.
He is the guy. So like, you can't predict injuries
and they, to me, they just keep doing what they're doing.
Run their offense to McCaffrey, and this is a great
matchup for McCaffrey as well. So this Jaguars team, they're

(58:36):
two and one, but they don't feel two in one.
They feel very fortunate to be two and one. EASi
it could be three and oh as well though another
team like that. But I think that's line mix toald Sence.
I had a couple people ask off this one because
like why are the Jags a dollar kick, especially against
Mac Jones?

Speaker 3 (58:49):
But I think I think that's a pretty line.

Speaker 2 (58:53):
Like again, I can't believe it came down for four
and a half, but I if this is Mac Jones,
I probably make it closer to a pick or maybe
minus one forty nine ers. But with Mac Jones, like
I said, uh, I mean pretty like I said, I
have this closer to six. So I think if it
is pretty he gets cleared, he's moving well in practice,
Like I'm even checking all the b writer's feed seeing
how he's moving, watching.

Speaker 3 (59:13):
Film him in practice this week.

Speaker 2 (59:14):
If he does practice, I need to see him pushing
off that dough and moving on that foot.

Speaker 3 (59:19):
And you know, I talked to the.

Speaker 2 (59:21):
X fooble player at the time these type injuries. They
say it doesn't matter because you're literally getting shot up
on Sunday anyway, or he won't feel it anyway.

Speaker 3 (59:28):
But I'd like to see him sober in practice.

Speaker 2 (59:31):
Pushing off the I just want to see the pain
threshold and how he can how he's maneuvering. Because we
talk all the time. Perty's legs is a big weapon
for him. Yeah, really mobile and right in the pocket
that way. So yeah, I know it's crazy we keep
giving out favorites here. If this is another favorite I like,
I like the talk this week.

Speaker 1 (59:47):
You just mentioned Trevor Lawrence. Let me give you some
some context here. How bad you know, we don't we're
not Trevor Lawrence fans for you.

Speaker 3 (59:55):
Stop.

Speaker 1 (59:56):
We're so off the train and that team feels like
it's on an ife's edge of just descending into chaos
and frustration with a lot of young talent that hasn't
had success and is going to get really frustrated with
yet another new coach who can't seem to And this
is not a Liam Cohne thing. This is just a

(01:00:16):
nature of the situation they're in because of the talent
they have. The Jags EPA per pass expected points added
perpass is twenty third in the league. That's not very good.
That's a reflection of the quarterback. This is while they're
sack rate sack raate allowed second lowest in the league,

(01:00:37):
pressure rate allowed lowest in the league. Blitz rate meaning
how often Trevor Lawrence is being blitzed fifth lowest in
the league.

Speaker 3 (01:00:47):
With no pressure they let's say what they played real quick.

Speaker 2 (01:00:50):
They played Carolina, Cincinnati and Houston and that's chat.

Speaker 3 (01:00:55):
Give it out those numbers.

Speaker 1 (01:00:56):
With no pressure. Trevor Lawrence cannot be effective in the past.
What is he going to do against Robert Salo who,
like Simon just said it. Who By the way, during
the offseason we kept saying he might be the most
important addition to a coaching staff other than Ben Johnson.
I'm dying to bet the Niners at minus three.

Speaker 3 (01:01:18):
Yeah, yeah, that's a good number.

Speaker 1 (01:01:20):
We're all over the favorites here, Baltimore A Kansas City,
Kansas City's plus two and a half hard rock bet.
We're being tempted. Oh my god, we are being tempted here,
Simon context Again, the Lions moved from touchdown to eight
and a half. After Monday Night football, the Ravens state

(01:01:41):
put at two and a half. Anyone who has done
any betting during the Mahomes era knows his record is
a dog. His record is a short favorite. Anyone who
has done any betting during the past two years has
watched since the Super Bowl, including the Super Bowl, this

(01:02:02):
offense is struggling to find a playmaker? Is it Taekwon Thornton?
Do we think the Ravens can game plan against him?
Are the Chiefs closer to the Browns who were ineffective?
Are they closer to the lines and the Bills who
couldn't be stopped? Like the Giants, game was a struggle
for this Chiefs team. They like they needed every mistake

(01:02:26):
the Giants made in order to to lock in and
cover against that team. The Homes had to be otherworldly.
What do we do here, Simon what do we do?
What is sharp? What is square?

Speaker 3 (01:02:42):
You know what to do here?

Speaker 2 (01:02:43):
This is the squarest line of the week. Ravens two
and a half. The book makers are they our friends?

Speaker 3 (01:02:50):
Job?

Speaker 2 (01:02:51):
They are our best friends apparently because this looks like
free money. I cannot believe this.

Speaker 3 (01:02:56):
Line is still holding at two and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:02:59):
So I personally I can't bet the Ravens side. I
just cannot do it and come on the show and
say that I'm a professional better.

Speaker 3 (01:03:08):
It is so chalky, so trappy, stinks to high heavens.
I cannot believe this line is at three and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:03:17):
At least three, just every book is sitting on two
and a half and getting bounded. I was a sucker
Sunday night as soon as I saw this number, just
in case the Ravens are gonna win. I took the
two and a half and it's like, there's no way
even the Ravens lose.

Speaker 3 (01:03:31):
There's no way.

Speaker 2 (01:03:31):
There's is still two and a half and here we
are at two and a half still, So in the playoffs,
I would be putting my life savings on the Chiefs
here at a home dog in the playoffs of this
number against Lamar team but Lamar in the regular season,
this is technically a good spot, a good number. I
can't believe it. I cannot believe this number is insane

(01:03:53):
because the books you're telling you the Raves are losing
this game, like they're they're not even saying they're gonna cover.
They're they're like, this is a crazy, crazy number to
hang by the sportsbook. So I have to be on
the Chiefs. There's no doubt I'll be on the Chiefs.
I'm gonna be patient and just hope it gets met up.
But just a bizarre number. And we talked Mahomes. Yes

(01:04:14):
he's been in Cremo's career as a dog or you know,
under three points. But I brought it up with that
Eagles matchup in this ZAC scenario that the only time
I ever been a dog at home was against the Bills,
and I believe he had lost twenty four to twenty
in that matchup and the Bills that covered, and we
just saw against the Eagles. Eagles were a favorite. I
think it was either one and a half or two.
It closed out. The Chiefs is a dog. They lost

(01:04:36):
by three. They almost backdwored it, but they just couldn't
get it going that end zone pick totally killed Mahomes.
So this is the exact type of game Mahomes and
Cheat and Andy Reid have won the last nine ten years.
They just pull these teams down to the mud. They
bring them on their shitty level and it works. But
it's just I can't believe it, Like something must be
wrong with this Ravens team for this line to be

(01:04:57):
what it is, and something must be wrong with them
more and I'm just not see it and I'm overlooking
it and I can't believe it.

Speaker 3 (01:05:04):
I cannot believe this is two and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:05:05):
It is to be the most shocking of we talked
about stinky, fishy lines this week. This is by far
the fishiest line. So if this was late in the year,
I would be all over the Ravens. I'm gonna trust
the trends, trust the spot. This is very telling by
the bookmakers about this line. So I'm gonna I'm gonna
take the Chiefs, but my god, I feel sick to
my stomach doing it. But I know to sell long

(01:05:27):
another long term winner spot and gotta gotta trust. A
model had this at a pick, so I know, I'm
I'm I'm still high.

Speaker 3 (01:05:36):
My model is still.

Speaker 2 (01:05:37):
High on this Chiefs team. It's just it really is.
I mean, I could say whatever I want about my
homes now, especially is it really is a SPACs thing though,
Like my model, just I always look get favoritism to
the Chiefs and SPACs defenses. The season goes along, the
defense always gets better. So now we're in four weeks,
I've seen every week since that Week one Chargers game,
the defense has improved. Yeah, and that's my takeaway from it.

(01:05:59):
Like you can say whatever you want. It's Russell Wilson.
I thought they played pretty well defensive against him and
that Giants team. So Chad Nailer, Our biggest question mark
is Mahomes his weapons, Gay Mick it work. This Ravens
team just looks like they have may or jior issues
on defense that they're working through right now.

Speaker 3 (01:06:15):
So I gotta can't believe this line.

Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
I cannot believe it gonna be the biggest need of
the book. There's two games are gonna be huge needs
for the books this week. This is one of them.
They the ones coming up a little later on the show.

Speaker 1 (01:06:27):
Uh, one of these teams is going to be one
and three after this weekend.

Speaker 3 (01:06:31):
And that was that crazy.

Speaker 1 (01:06:33):
It's insane because I got both of these teams in
every Super Bowl matchup bet that I have.

Speaker 2 (01:06:39):
Yeah, I mean it's again, mur Septembers. You've got plenty
of time. You're gonna be all right. But I'm with you,
that is crazy.

Speaker 1 (01:06:44):
One of them is going to have to come around
at some point. I'm surprised that you went that hard
on the Chiefs. I thought when you started talking, you
were gonna say, Ravens, I don't really have a game.

Speaker 3 (01:06:54):
I know, how do you not take Ravens. That's why
I can't believe this.

Speaker 1 (01:06:57):
Raven's coming off that loss, chief coming off their win.
You know, agree, It's like the Chiefs looked terrible beating
the Giants. They like Patrick Mahomes was running for his
life against the Giant.

Speaker 2 (01:07:12):
Your friend, though, just keep saying it to yourself. They
they're not they're not here to give you money.

Speaker 1 (01:07:16):
You know who my bff is.

Speaker 3 (01:07:18):
It's true, it is you're my bff.

Speaker 1 (01:07:20):
You're my friend, Chicago, at Las Vegas. This one is
bouncing all over the place, no matter where you know,
no matter where you live. The Raiders were favorites in
some spots. Dogs and the others minus one at hard
Rock Bet right now, you highlighted this immediately Sunday night
when the Raiders one and a half point dogs, Like

(01:07:41):
it's had a whole journey. At one point on Sunday
they were favorites, and so it keeps just bouncing back
and forth, back and forth. I think a lot of
it depends on, you know, the state you live in
and the book you're using. But the Bears beating the
Cowboys and the way the Raiders lost to the Commanders
is doing some bunkiness to this line.

Speaker 3 (01:08:01):
Yeah, And I just the Raiders team.

Speaker 2 (01:08:05):
I knew coming to the season they're gonna have some
weaknesses on the offensive line. I didn't know it was
gonna be this bad. They just they can't get any
sort of running game going. And we've seen g know
is not the best when he's under pressure. So there
are some if you're turning back to Bears, there are
some aspects you can like.

Speaker 3 (01:08:20):
Right, they've looked like the better team through three weeks.

Speaker 2 (01:08:22):
Their defense is I know it's a weakness of that
Bears team, but at least they have some.

Speaker 3 (01:08:27):
Guys and get pressure.

Speaker 2 (01:08:28):
But when I look at the Bears secondary, they got
away one against Dallas.

Speaker 3 (01:08:34):
Oh yeah, and.

Speaker 2 (01:08:36):
This matchup is not good for them against this Raiders
team indoors on a fast field and.

Speaker 3 (01:08:42):
Caleb we saw what he can be when there's no pressure.

Speaker 2 (01:08:46):
Next Crosby is not anything close to what the Dallas
Cowboys that I have on their front for He's gonna
get his. There are guys beatable on this Bears front line,
like they're their line is still working it out, figuring
out right. They brought in a much free agism and
they're just putting all these guys together.

Speaker 3 (01:09:01):
It takes a little bit.

Speaker 2 (01:09:02):
So once again, like this Bears team, I kept saying,
I really think they're gonna be much better later in
this season. That was the perfect game against Dallas, and
we talked that was a Bear spot. But between the
ceed injuries, the turnovers they kept getting, like it all
just really went.

Speaker 3 (01:09:15):
That Bears away.

Speaker 1 (01:09:16):
Cowboys right tackle left the game and it's done for
two weeks.

Speaker 3 (01:09:19):
Yeah yeah, so like it just kept.

Speaker 2 (01:09:21):
It was just so bad for that Cowboys team, and
that you'll see the line reflects the Cowboys out of
a bunch of injuries. Their numbers moved a ton this week,
so that makes sense. But I just think it's it's
the hate's gone too far in this Vegas team, where
the Bears might win this game, but this shouldn't be
more than them being a dog, right, Like they should
be a one point one and a half two point

(01:09:42):
dog in this game. There's a bunch of books out
there that still have them as a one and a
half point favorite, so people.

Speaker 3 (01:09:49):
Can easily see who my read here is.

Speaker 2 (01:09:51):
I'm just taking the value better number on a team
that isn't as bad as they think they are, and
Vegas at home in this matchup.

Speaker 3 (01:10:00):
To me, it's pretty favorable.

Speaker 2 (01:10:01):
Like that was not like a brutal spot last week,
but a little it was a little bit right then
go on the road. Yeah, sure, we against a backup. Uh,
they just from the get go, they were just getting mulled.
And we've seen it early early in the yearly in
the year here we overrate inflate too much on the
small sample side that we have of these these few games.

Speaker 3 (01:10:21):
So still hope for this.

Speaker 2 (01:10:22):
Raiders team, but they easily look like the fourth team
in this division. And you know that this line here
reflects that if they if they turned anything last week,
they easily would have been a favorite in this match
up against this Bears team, because, like I said, most
models aren't gonna have this bearre team highly rated. Right
as great as Klea Williams looked, there's still some things
to take away from them that he struggled with. So,

(01:10:44):
uh yeah, bet in the number. Don't know if I'll
force it into our contest. Will see as the week
goes along here. But I am on the Raid the
Raiders side of plus one and a half, but not
not one of my five favorite bets yet this week. Uh.

Speaker 1 (01:10:56):
You know, we got a lot of questions last week
why didn't we talk more about the Raiders and the
Commanders against Marcus Mariota, And like, we just didn't like
the game, and we talked about it on Tuesday, never
went back to it because we just couldn't figure out
what did we like about the Commanders? What do we
like about the Raiders? It just wasn't a game that
was you know, that we were tracking that was appealing

(01:11:18):
to us. This week a little bit different. You just
mentioned Dallas Cowboys, a lot of injuries. Now seven point
home underdogs on Sunday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers.
Like man does the NFL know how to do drama.
We thought the scriptwriters were crushing it with all those
block kicks, and then we forgot that they were coming

(01:11:40):
back with next week's episode and bringing Micah Parsons back
to Big d. It's brilliant, brilliant programming. I don't like
this game. Like Mike is back, CD's out, the right
tackle is out. They can't stop anyone on defense. Matt
eber Flues continues to be, you know, a recycled joke.

(01:12:03):
What do we do with this game? I honest to god,
I don't know what to do with this game.

Speaker 2 (01:12:07):
I'm taking the seven, but I'm not putting a lot
on it because I think you're early readable this.

Speaker 3 (01:12:11):
This will just keep growing.

Speaker 2 (01:12:12):
This is going to be green Bay will be in
every teaser, every parlay, just like they were last week.

Speaker 3 (01:12:18):
The public will not care that they lost.

Speaker 2 (01:12:20):
They will come right back on because Dallas has so
many injuries and they looked horrible, and they were I
think the number two most bet money and ticket almost
at every sportsbook last week.

Speaker 3 (01:12:30):
Everyone was all over Dallas last week.

Speaker 2 (01:12:32):
Now they are totally off of them because of all
these injuries and green Bay's defense through three weeks they
are another team. You're just like, man, that might be
a really, really good defense.

Speaker 3 (01:12:42):
And I know I don't want to take too much away.

Speaker 2 (01:12:44):
From week going to the Lions, but since then, the
Lions have looked like a juggernaut, and that Week one
they looked totally lost. And it's three weeks down. Green
Bay's defense every week has just looked the part. They
look incredible. So for me, it's all well again, playing
the number overvalue team in green Bay, undervalue team in Dallas,

(01:13:06):
that people still think this Green Bay team is a
top three team in the NFC. I mean they literally
had that number one. I think sportsbooks had them as
a favorite last week to win the Super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (01:13:16):
It's just overaction.

Speaker 2 (01:13:17):
This is a good green Bay team, but they have
their own injuries, especially to their offensive line in the
wide receiver position. And you know Tucker Kraft how important
he is. I thought you saw a little bit of
Jordan Love. He was using the other tight ends like
it didn't really matter that much because.

Speaker 3 (01:13:32):
The scheme they were on there with the floor. But
tug Craft's a big deal to me.

Speaker 2 (01:13:35):
When you already have injuries to your wide receiver position,
you're relying on Golden You're a rookie receiver that could
have turned it up field right. His body carried him
out of balance where he could have easily had a
touchdown if he just turned his body a little more
to carry up field.

Speaker 3 (01:13:46):
So it's a lot to.

Speaker 2 (01:13:48):
Put on a Green Bay team that the hype was
so high week one, and I think it's still there
in Dallas. I know they have all these injuries, and
I know their coach, Schettenheimer seems like might be an idiot,
but I can't get over that it's gonna be the
Sunday night game and we might be getting seven and.

Speaker 3 (01:14:05):
A half on Dak.

Speaker 2 (01:14:06):
Like Dak, he just as a big dog like the Eagles.
He just covers in those spots. I don't know how
he gets there, but he gets there. He always has
in his career. So yeah, I could lose. It could
be a bad one. I don't know if I'm gonna
force it into our contest because I don't think they'll
give us a seven.

Speaker 3 (01:14:21):
And a half.

Speaker 2 (01:14:22):
But at seven right now as it sits at hard Rock,
I'm taking that number on Dallas.

Speaker 3 (01:14:27):
I just I can't believe how.

Speaker 2 (01:14:29):
Much love the screen may team, which they are very good.
They are much better team than this Dallas team. But
a seven point road favorite on Sunday night. I can't
believe it. In Week four. It's like, I don't know.
It's just bizarre how much love and respect Ring Bay
got so early in the year. Just maybe it's because
people love them so much in the preseason, but they
just they're crowding this team so quick that Jordan Love

(01:14:51):
hasn't done anything to earn that. This offense isn't consistent
enough to earn that type of respect. So yeah, I
can't believe this number. But the pros are with the public.
They've been hammering this side of Green Bay. It was
like Chad said, it was five and a half Sunday night.
All the injuries, CD's most likely out, like you said,
didn't even know that they had injury to their right tackle.

Speaker 3 (01:15:12):
That's a big deal.

Speaker 2 (01:15:13):
So I'll play the number, I'll play the spot, but yeah,
not going to be super confident on it. It's just
insane the amount of injuries Cowboys have had to start
the year.

Speaker 1 (01:15:22):
Yeah, listen, Jordan Love, he's no Justin Herbert. Yeah, b
boom boom, A little callback for you there, New York
Jets at Miami. There's two Monday night football games. This
is one of them. The Dolphins are two and a
half point favorites. We discussed it on Sunday night. One

(01:15:42):
of our YouTube viewers asked about this Jets the Jets
in this game, we kind of both wanted to pass
like this didn't didn't compel me in any particular way.

Speaker 3 (01:15:56):
I'll say this though.

Speaker 2 (01:15:57):
I know I really respect the group that hit that
jet side. Jets did touch three, and I can't believe it.
Like to me, it was either Miami or no bet
at all in this matchup. Like we got away with
the one last week with that jet side, and I
know we had sem to half a contest. I had
a ton of six and a half personally, So it
was like, yeah, just total miracle.

Speaker 3 (01:16:17):
Uh pepa cover and went there.

Speaker 2 (01:16:19):
And looking at this matchup, it's really about their secondary.
I just can't get over how bad the Jets secondary
is their defense wise, and Miami, yeah, they've had some
injuries off its line, but overall wide receivers are healthy.
And you saw against the Bills two can't put it together.
When it clicks right, it's all going right. He does

(01:16:40):
make it work two against.

Speaker 3 (01:16:42):
A bad team. Like.

Speaker 2 (01:16:43):
That's the other part of it too. A beats up
on bad teams, So I'll take it. It's it feels like
another sucker number like that Ravens game, but this side,
I will take it. I don't think it's gonna be
as heavily public as Miamis side. But yeah, again, another
game I don't feel great about. I bet it. It's
my job to get out on A and on it.
I guess Miami. But my god, and thank god, there's

(01:17:03):
two games on Monday night, so I don't have to
watch either of them.

Speaker 1 (01:17:06):
Well that's what I was going to say about Cincinnati Denver.
Terrible dude. I fell asleep at halftime of last night's
game only because I stayed up way too late at
watching the Chiefs and the Giants, because I wanted to
make sure I could send all my karma the Chiefs
away so they could cover that five and a half
because they were trying to give it away and let
the Giants go down the field. Cincinnati Denver. Denver's a

(01:17:29):
seven point favored in the second Monday night game. I
might not make it to kickoff for this one. I'm
going to say it, right now I know you're gonna
laugh at me. I think the sharp side is taking
the seven in Cincinnati. They got blown out. There's never
going to be more value. I think Denver is still
being overvalued. The problem is Bonnicks looks great against bad

(01:17:54):
defenses and looks pedestrian against good defenses. So he's playing
a pretty bad defense. That means he could light him up.
I'm not going to bet this one. Slight slight lean
Cincinnati Sharper square.

Speaker 3 (01:18:08):
I agree. I guess.

Speaker 2 (01:18:09):
I guess the Bengals would be the sharp cycle. You said,
but I don't know. I'm on bone Knicks and I'm
again I said I'm on chalk this week. This is
another side where you have to get right Boone Nicks.
This is such a get right spot against just overall
a terrible, terrible Bengals team. And I know we took
a lot of heat from their fans being like, what

(01:18:30):
more do you want? They signed their receivers, they signed
their quarterback, they sign their d lineman. You guys are
too hard on them, and it's what we talk about
the time. It's like a ten year old building the team.
It's like a Madden team. They don't they don't address
the weaknesses that are defense out of their offensive line,
and now your quarterbacks out for the season, so.

Speaker 3 (01:18:47):
I'm not doing it.

Speaker 2 (01:18:48):
I think Demery's defense great match for them against a
horrible backup quarterback and Brownie that you know, he can't
make big throws, but we see the timetime again, he
can turn it over. He's just a guy that's loose
with the ball, and that's where Denver wants to be.
They want to be against a guy that's throwing the ball,
pushing downfield and on the flip side with bow Nicks.
They don't really have a guy that can spy him

(01:19:09):
like the Chargers really dead. There's ways for him to
attack with his feet outside the pocket.

Speaker 3 (01:19:13):
That's why this number is what it is.

Speaker 2 (01:19:15):
They win, they cover that game last week, probably seven
and a half eight at this point, I mean, I'm
looking right now. There's one book at seven and a half,
so I guess that's where it is heading. So I'll
take Denver and minus seven. I can't believe on Denver
and Miami Monday night chalk.

Speaker 3 (01:19:28):
But it's terrible. It's yeah, it's just terrible.

Speaker 1 (01:19:31):
It's just speaking of speaking of chalk, I've made my
Chad loves decision. Are you ready? Chad loves the Los
Angeles Chargers minus six.

Speaker 3 (01:19:41):
Couldn't get away from it.

Speaker 1 (01:19:50):
I couldn't get away from it because when we go
through the games, like I told you, other than the Falcons,
who I loved at plus three and now it's at
two and a half. Yeah, the only teams I this
week our favorites, all right, Simon, As we are talking
about this game, the Chargers game that I love, it's
been announced that Russell Wilson is being benched in favor
of Jackson Dark. The line is moving. You can't get

(01:20:11):
the six anymore. It's at six and a half. I
still love it at six and a half. I might
like it even more. Tell me why I'm being so
sharp right now?

Speaker 2 (01:20:20):
Yeah, we both love it, and it's it's really again.
It's gonna come back to that defense. It's a great defense.
Now going to be again to rookie making us first start.
And me and Chad have seen this before, right, we've
we've been burned by the rookie making us first start
because there's no tape on them, all the unknowns. But
when you have a defense that makes you bend to
their identity like the Chargers defense does. I still feel

(01:20:41):
confident and I'll think it's a good number. It's still're
still getting under seven. Still trust the number, and yeah,
obviously we both which more confident at the six.

Speaker 3 (01:20:50):
Six and a half's not gonna scare me off.

Speaker 2 (01:20:51):
As long as you can shop around people get under
that seven, which is such a key number.

Speaker 3 (01:20:54):
I think this is a good spot, good number for
the Chargers team and.

Speaker 2 (01:20:57):
Man Jackson Dark talk about a bad time pick your
first star.

Speaker 1 (01:21:00):
This is brutal, kind of crazy that Brian Dayball would
tell the world on Tuesday instead of waiting a little
bit longer. So now the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh can
prep for that. But that goes kind of in keeping
with how incompetent the Giants team has been throughout the
Joe Shine Brian Dayball tenure. All Right, the last thing
I want to do, Chad loves the Chargers. The last

(01:21:21):
thing I want to do, we'd be promising in for
a few weeks. Contest winners. You guys have been so
kind and in helping us relaunch Sharper Square or launch
Sharper Square new network with the volume who we love.
It's hard to relaunch an audio show and get it
to exist in the rankings and consistently be in the
rankings the way we have been. It's all thanks to you,

(01:21:43):
guys and continuing to rate and review leave us five stars,
saying whatever you want. We want to reward some people.
We have gotten some excellent feedback and some five star
reviews on Apple Podcasts. There will be many winners. Our
first batch of winners Team Mike Mac, Jimmy half Greek,

(01:22:05):
your compadre. I love that one. You're going to email
Sharper Square at gmail dot com. We're going to get
you a prize. But let me read the winning the
winning review from Tea Mike Mac. For some reason, I've
enjoyed gambling on football for thirty years, even though I
lost money. Since I started listening to Chad and Simon,

(01:22:27):
I am up around seven thousand dollars. You need thick skin, though.
Best advice Simon gave a while back is that when
you're betting a terrible dog, you have permission not to
watch it. There have been so many games that were
so hard to watch, but we pulled it out in
the end. Thank you for your five star review, Team,
Mike Mack and everybody else who has done it. Team Mike,

(01:22:49):
you're going to be getting some swag. Jimmy Half Greek,
your capadre, You're all getting some swag. Thank you everybody
who's been listening and leaving the reviews and rating and
keep doing it. We're going to steep giving out some
more stuff. Let me run down the games that we're
gonna focus on on Thursday. We'll probably probably talk a
little bit about the Cards and hopefully they've gotten to

(01:23:10):
be dogs at that point. Chargers minus six, it's moving, uh,
Simon says. Charge Chargers minus six is uh. Chad loves
Simon says, is the Bucks at plus three and a half,
Lions minus eight and a half. We're hoping it gets
down to eight. Buffalo minus sixteen and a half. What

(01:23:32):
happened to us? Rams minus three is what we're hoping
to get. It's a three and a half, Niners minus three,
Jesus Simon, Chiefs plus two and a half. Thank god,
we're getting back to who we are and the Raiders
minus one. We're hoping that flips back. A lot to

(01:23:53):
talk about on Thursday. Brother, It's a lot of freaking favorites.
This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Thursday with the games we
are zeroing in on, Plus Our Survivor, Pick Our Head
to Head, Battle, brass Ball, so much more. Watch or
listen on YouTube ait Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe

(01:24:17):
to the channel, download us on Spotify, Apple Pods wherever
you get your pods, Subscribe, rate, review, keep those Apple
podcasts five star ratings and reviews coming because feedback is
a gift. Until next time, Love you,

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Sharp or Square - NFL Week 3 Bets: Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Cowboys, Eagles-Bucs, Chargers-Giants and more

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