Betting Mike Tomlin as a huge favorite? Kickoff approaches for NFL Week 6, and betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter are here to deliver their final five against the spread contest picks. After all their picks and predictions this week, they deliver their very best bets, including Dak Prescott's Dallas Cowboys visiting the Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions vs KC Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, the Titans vs Raiders, the Chargers visiting the Miami Dolphins, the New Orleans Saints hosting Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, and Monday Night Football between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders. All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume
0:03:00 - start
0:05:00 - Cowboys-Panthers
0:07:00 - Chargers-Dolphins
0:09:00 - Browns-Steelers
0:12:00 - Lions-Chiefs
0:22:00 - Cardinals-Colts
0:23:30 - Patriots-Saints, Titans-Raiders and Bears-Commanders
--
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by Hard Rought that we
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chadmlman. I am joined
as always by my BFF, my companion, my compadre professional better,
(00:22):
Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Are we doing brother?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Listen? This is why we do the show on Sunday
mornings because so much has changed even since the Thursday show.
There are injuries to a lot of the games we discussed.
There have been a lot of line moves for a
lot of the games we've discussed the entire week, both
positively and negatively. So I love that we're getting a
(00:47):
chance to review and make decisions after we have full
clarity of the entire field. We're going to get into
that in a second. First, I want to remind everybody,
as many of you know in the past, in a
previous iteration of the show, we've had a totally free
to play NFL Pick Them contest. We've given away some
(01:10):
big prizes. Because we had to launch Sharper Square so
quickly before the season began, we ran out of time
to launch the contest. But thanks to our very benevolent
sponsors at hard Rock Back Week by hard Rock Back,
we can announce that a free Sharper Square NFL Pick
Them contest will be launching very very very very very
(01:34):
very very soon. We can't give out the official date yet,
but stay tuned. We'll have more announcements coming up this week.
All right, this is the strip down in the room
eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going
to try to nail down our final five picks. Now that,
as I've said, we've got injuries, we've got line moves,
all that stuff. Simon, are you ready ready?
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Brother?
Speaker 1 (01:55):
All right? So starting off Dallas at Carolina. We've let
Carolina all week. It was at three and a half.
It's now down to three. We're getting it at three
and a half in our contest. The wise guys have
liked it. Bryce Young is improving, Carolina's defense is actually improving.
Carolina is getting healthier. Dallas still incredibly banged up coming
(02:18):
off of two incredibly big, high profile wins. The Cowboys
have I still like the Panthers at plus three and
a half.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
Yeah, and you know it's a line that I thought
would keep coming down. There's one book at minus two
and a half, so you know that's where I thought
they would be someday. So I'm honestly shocked its stolen
at three. But for a good reason. Right The public
loves this Cowboys team. They've been good to them. Carolina
is an up and down team. I don't think people
(02:51):
fully trust them yet. I don't think people fully come
around to what mean you have, which is a ton
of love and respect for Bryce Young, Like I just
you go back and watch. This is not like we
said there. This is not a good Carolina team. But
he keeps finding a way. He keeps pushing the ball downfield,
which is what we wanted to see from the man
in this matchup. We talked about Dak could easily burn
us here, but at this number.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
I feel a lot safer. And even at the.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
Plus three, I still think that's a good number for
this Carolina team. I just can see this easily being
a shootout. Last team the ball obviously wins, you know
the To me, the bump in this line, I know
it sounds crazy. I do think it has to do
a lot with the Cowboys kicker that he is such
a weapon, and that's why it's held at this three
because I do think normally this would be a two
(03:37):
to two and a half line. So we've loved it.
I would say I loved it more than you, and
I think you've come around, especially on Thursday show this
Carolina side, and you know three and a half.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
I knew.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
I feel like I knew Sunday we were never gonna
avoid this one at this number. I just the Cowboys team,
like we keep saying, they have so many injuries, how
can they not be overvalued? It's really I mean, Dak
is just you know, he's in the MVP conversation.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
He should be. It's like what he's done this season
with this team is incredible.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
So yeah, once again, all about the number trying to
go up, hyper focused on the quarterbacks here and all
the trends that loved Dak in this exact spot.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
I think this is a number.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
That's a little overvalued in a three and a half
in the contest, I got to take it.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Brother.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Look, the only thing that is starting to scare me
a little bit is there's potential weather and wind impacting
the game. Yeah, and like that could turn it into
a much lower scoring game. Right, that could change how
these teams approached the passing game and see what it'll
do to their ability to move the ball downfield. But
I and look the Cowboys. Javonte Williams has been great
(04:44):
this year, but things trending for chib Hubbard to play again.
Even then, Rico Daudell had two hundred yards rushing last week,
So I'm still going to be on the side of
the Panthers here. Agree. It took me a minute, but
I got there.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I even think about They're right. I think we're getting
like a crazy Nor'eastern crazy So yeah, that's fair.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
I have honest I think that might play in our total.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
The totals come down from fifteen out of forty and
a half, so yeah, obviously the money has agreed with
you that this weather could affect this game.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
All right, Chargers minus three and a half. Now at Miami,
this was our brass balls bet of the week when
it was Chargers minus four. I am not going to
feel obligated to put this into the contest because there
are other lines that are moving so aggressively that we
got to play the best opportunities that we have when
(05:34):
we're putting our favorite five in there. So the fact
that it's moved against us, it's at four and a
half in the contest, it's it's three and a half now.
There have been some more injuries reported for the Chargers,
Quentin Johnston potentially going to be out, if not already
ruled out. People were asking me why this was brass balls,
(05:56):
and the reason it was brass balls is because we
were betting on the road favorite that is getting a
preponderance of the bets, but the money is coming in
on Miami, so that makes it a ballsy pick because
we are definitively against the wise guys. I don't like
the way the number has moved against us in terms
of putting it in the contest.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
I still like them, but I agree they're probably number
five or six now for me, so I have no
issue if they're the last one out. I just I
love this spot for the Chargers, and that's why it's
a rest balls bet. It's it feels like a very
very small amount of professionals are taking this Chargers team.
I think everyone's kind of left them for dead here
because of all the injuries, and like we said, this
(06:36):
is usually a game where TUA at Home performs well,
but I still think the Chargers a undervalue here. But
I agree, there's there's other games we can we can
break down.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
To be clear for anyone watching, we still like the Chargers.
We're both on the Chargers. If you want to take
the Chargers three and a half, take the Chargers of
three and a half. I just don't like the value
that we're getting in the contest compared to what the
Suger currently is. Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh currently is six
point favorite. Look, we've been touting the Steelers every show
(07:09):
this week. Tuesday we loved him at four and a half.
Thursday we loved him at five and a half. It's
now six trending to six and a half. It's good.
It's going to be a bigger number than what we
have been saying people should choose all week four and
a half in our contest lines a lock on Wednesday.
Reminder to people, I think anyone who is watching right now,
(07:31):
you've lost the value on the Steelers. It's at you know,
most places, it's probably trending to six and a half,
so you're just not getting the best of the number.
But geez, the Steelers rested with just about everybody back
still like him in the contest for sure.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Yeah, and this is probably once in seven years of
us doing that. We're taking Tomlin over a field goal
favorite at home and this is always a fade spot
for us, So it must really really be a good
spot if we're taking them in our contests and we've
been preaching in all week. We just it's the number.
It's a situation. The trends all point to it as well.
Like I read off all those Tomlin trends after the
(08:09):
bye week, especially early bye weeks.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
If you're terrified of it, I get it. People, just
you have to at.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Least take the Steelers money aline here, Like there's no
excuse to pass on this one in this spot. So yeah,
it's as the Browns go. This would be legendary. If
they can go in here and win this team and
cover this number, that would be an all timer, because
it just feels like such a horrible spot for them,
So gonna be a sweat.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
I have no doubt we will be.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Down three heading into half with this Pittsburgh side. That's
just how it is when you're taking tom as a favorite.
But like Chad said, we bet it all week. I
bet it four. I bet at four and a half.
I've even betted it still this morning it's five and
a half. I bet it again because I'm like Chad,
I think it's going to keep going up to six
six and a half as the public wakes up here
early in the morning. So four and a half contest,
can't avoid it, got to put it in shed.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City is now a two
and a half point favorite. Simon. This is our rock
and a hard plays bet of the Week, presented by
a hard rock bet o.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
What a rock.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Look the chiefs of the pro side here. Any bookmaker
you talked to is telling you they have huge, huge
number of bets coming in on the Detroit Lions. They
are by far and away the public side here. And
yet this line one and a half two two and
a half, like it has not gotten to three. This
(09:46):
two and a half seems to be sort of the
line of demarcation right now. You and I have both
been betting the Chiefs. We've been betting the chief since
it was at one and a half two two and
a half. It is one and a half in our contest,
which makes me feel very good about taking them. But
this is a pro Joe's game. Is probably one of
the most pro Joe's game on the board this.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
Week for sure, And I mean, I can't tell you
many football clips.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
I felt like people are sending me of.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
People in this business trying to figure out why this
line is what it is, while also being like, this
is the easiest bet of my life taking Detroit. This
is a no brainer and we've seen all the time
public wins that could be proven right, but long term,
very very very stupid bet to think you are smarter
than the books and you know more about a line.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Well, these people don't even have models.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
They're just guys who are living is throwing a shit
against the wall and hoping it sticks. When they're the
ones that are feeling super confident about Detroit. Anyone, if
you had any type of read and you were like, well,
you guys are overthicking this. You think you're so smart
taking this Chiefs team. I gave you I know it's
small trends, but I gave you all those exact trends
of my homes in this spot against these type of
teams and spags against these type of teams. So it's
(11:00):
a juggernaut. We're standing in front of a really great
team here in Detroit. I think we're both banking on
a letdown and the fact that they have had a
very very weak schedule up to this point. It's fair
to say that. So I'm excited for this one, like,
this is a perfect game for Sunday night. And like
you said, you could have maybe tucked me out of
(11:22):
the chat this morning if it was two and a
half in our contest at one and a half. This
has been locked in for us since Tuesday, Like, this
is one of the first bets I put in for us,
no brainer, can't avoid it. We are all in on
these home teams, like I. People are gonna see this
a quick trend. Yeah, we love the home teams this week.
And this is another one where it's a good number
short favorite here, mahomes, we might get burned here long
(11:44):
term for the rest of our lives. This is a
smart bet and you should join us here. I know
it's scary, just trust the numbers, trust the data. This
is a good spot. This is a Detroit team that
is very talented. This is peak peak peak value for
them this season, and I think they're going to quickly
see like the reason all these people have them powering
to is the number one team because they haven't played
(12:05):
a great team since week one.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
So I'm going to be interesting how they do with
what we talked about.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
I think it's going to be a Spags type of
game where he takes away the run, it forces GoF
to beat them, and that's what I'm so interested to
see how how this chess match goes because I just
saw something different last week with Mahomes. I think Mahome's
going to get his They could be able to get
the thirty points in this game. Ken Goff keep up?
Can he get to that number? So yeah, minus one
and a half love the Chiefs here.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Well, look, there's also a lot of injuries for the
Lions that really haven't been discussed very much this week,
especially in their defensive backfield, but also along their offensive line.
Amman Russ Saint Brown was banged up most of the week,
didn't practice most of the week. This game is on grass,
which is a different track than the Allions have been
(12:51):
winning and dominating on for the past few weeks, and
as many trends as there are for Mahomes that are
also those trends for the Lions covering in prime time
and how good Dan Campbell is. I don't want to
discount that, but I still feel like we're just it's
the very first thing you said. People need to understand.
(13:12):
Bookmakers don't have models for the lines they set. They
eyeball these things, They get some numbers from consultants, The
lines get pounded into shape, generally by betters around the world. Really,
this line has been moving in the Chiefs direction despite
every single bet from the public coming in on the Lions.
(13:35):
It's rare that bookmakers take a stand. They've taken a
stand and said that they like the Chiefs in this game.
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and Virginia. I think we've got Carolina three and a half,
(15:47):
Pittsburgh four and a half. It's bigger currently, we understand,
but we're playing the contest line Kansas City minus one
and a half. Again, we still like the Chiefs of
two and a half. We're playing the contest line. I
think we got to talk about Arizona at Indianapolis. We've
been talking about us since Sunday. You said last Sunday Night,
Early Leans on the Sunday Night Show Indy was four
(16:10):
and a half. I think that's what I bet it
at We liked it. Then it's been slowly creeping up. Now,
probability that Kyler Murray isn't going to play this line
has jumped from moving It was at six and a
half seven now it's at nine nine and a half,
nine at hard Rock nine and a half, other places
in our contest at six and a half. I'm not
(16:32):
recommending anybody play it at nine and a half, but sorry, folks,
we got to talk about it. We've liked the Colts
all week at a good number. Now it's exploded. How
do we not play this?
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Yeah, six and a half we're not played.
Speaker 3 (16:46):
I mean, it's if you didn't miss it, even though
we talked while you should have taken on Thursday show.
Is that Kyler is banged up, he wasn't practicing. There
were still six and a half's even on our Thursday show.
You know, did jump up to seven and a half Friday,
then back down and then once the chefid tweet came
out that he's has a really high chance of missing.
Like Chad said, it shot away to nine and a half.
(17:08):
I don't hate it obviously at nine and a half,
but I obviously much prefer when it was under those
key numbers.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
And it's just a bad spot.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
Pers And I gave you those trends about teams that
play in three straight games that have lost by a
field goal of the fourth game either two and eight
against the spread one and nine straight up, so historically
bad spot going back, just teams, they can only take
so much, right, Like we said, these are human beings.
How do you not just get beaten by this? Like
beaten down by losing so many close games in a row.
(17:37):
Now you've lost your supposed leader, your quarterback, and you know,
Scubersecund maybe win you a game.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
He's the type of guy. He could steal a game.
He is a vet.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
He is also a statue, but that's very limited mobility,
doesn't have the best arm. This is just it feels
like to me, a locker room guy, like not someone
you want starting for you, let alone against a Colt
team that just like it looks like absolutely juggering out.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
So could we get burned?
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Could the Colts finally have a really bad game and
we get burned by it?
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Sure?
Speaker 3 (18:07):
And they're coming off what a thirty forty point win
against the Raiders last week, But I just think they're rolling.
They're such a good team. Arizona feels like the totally opposite.
They are just not as not as well coached in
the sense. And yeah, this is like we said all
about the number six and a half, no brainer got
to put in the contest.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
It's a number play, all right. So now we got
four games that we like. We got three games that
we got to discuss, New England at New Orleans. This
is three and a half for New Orleans. This is
your assignment, says lots of love both sides here from professionals.
You were taking a stand. I disagree. Doesn't mean we
(18:47):
don't have to put it in the contest. The other game,
Tennessee at the Raiders. The Raiders are minus four. This
was Chad's choice. Sometimes we got to do gross things
and bet on bad quarterbacks who are a bit of
a train wreck, like Geno Smith. I feel like I'm
kind of dragging you along on this one. So we
(19:07):
have those two competing with each other. Then we got
the Chicago Bears plus four and a half at Washington,
and I want to talk about all three of them
together because the Bears will be healthier than they have
been all year. TJ. Edwards the linebacker is back, Kyler Gordon.
Defensive back is back, Austin Booker back at defensive end,
Colston leveland back at tight end. Darnell right tackle is back.
(19:30):
Terry McLaurin is out. For Washington. So we've got a
game that you like that I don't in New Orleans,
New England, a game that I love that you're mediocre
on in the Raiders and Tennessee, and then the Chicago
Bears plus four and a half at Washington on Monday night.
Speaker 3 (19:49):
So I mean, I can we talk to other things
because right now what I'm looking at, I know it's stupid.
People shouldn't think this way, but like, this is the
original five I've put in for us on whatever that
was Tuesday after our show. I had the Colts, I
had Pittsburgh, I had Carolina, I had New Orleans, and
I had the Chiefs. So those are five home teams,
which again not a big deal. It doesn't really matter.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
And by the way, those are four other than the Saints.
Those are the four teams we're still.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
On and for of those picks, so Colts, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Saints,
they're all one o'clock. So it's also like a thing
where it's like, well, no, right away, are we zero
for four for the day?
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Four? No, whatever it is, it's all we're all in
on the one o'clock.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
That's why it's like, I'm not as confident as you
are in the Vegas one at all.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
But like I bet it, it's it is a good spot.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
Obviously nordbrock Bowers is like a huge negative sea. But
the fact that, like you know, most books, it is
Tennessee money, which was shocking to me. There is professional
love for Tennessee in the public for the most part
has joined them. But yeah, I just I don't really
have a read on it. I mean, it is tough.
(21:02):
Like I love the Bears, I'm with you on it.
I just I don't get why it's still four and
a half at every book.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
I don't either. It's so it's so weird that this
thing has not budged.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
So that's when I had attention with that one.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
That really worries me. I'm not gonna lie because I
get just this game never should have been four and
a half. It should have been three.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
No.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
So like right now, two very public players were on
Colts Pittsburgh. Both are very good numbers if you want
to just go with the professional side, Carolina Saints Chiefs.
That's basically where we're at with those where it's just
like we're trusting the number.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
We're with the pros. It's good numbers, you know, but.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
Like my my fear is the public has just been
getting killed. That's why, like I'm a little hesitant speak
where it's like they're going to have their weak the public.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
They're going to get their revenge at some point.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
So still, like I guess said, still saying, still think
it's a good number.
Speaker 2 (21:59):
Can it be our last one out? Like would I
rather have Vegas in there?
Speaker 3 (22:02):
If Chad's feeling really good about it, got no issue
with it, Chicago one. That's that's a little hesitation for
me because it's like I don't know if I can
allow us to do it because we both know there's
red flags right now.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
With red flags. Yeah it is.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
It is the red flag boyfriend of all games. Yeah,
it's weird that I never feel confident about the Bears
and I feel confident and maybe I'm leaning too much
into this is the this is the game where the Bears,
you know, get rid of their demons from last year
where the trouble started and they cratered after that, lost
(22:39):
to the Commanders, and they got players coming back, they're
off a bye week. I'm all in on Ben and Caleb,
Like I'm just so enthusiastic.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
So, like, my view is, you supported me on the Chiefs,
you supported me on Carolina.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
You don't want to support me on the Saints. If
you want to go Raiders.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
Over SATs Raiders.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
Yeah, I'm okay with it, even though it's like a
spot we normally don't take. I just I can't get
over how how insane this line movement has been with
this Raider's number. And I know again all the pros
on the other side. I think I even saw some
three and a half's pop with that Tennessee side, so
like you could get Raiders of minus three and a half,
which is shocking to me.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
So we're going against it.
Speaker 3 (23:19):
But like I said, it's uh, I got to pick
and choose my battles. You're nice enough to give me
these Panthers, which is gross, and the Chiefs, which is gross.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Yeah, but I don't.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Feel like I'm giving you that. I actually I now
love the Panthers and loved I've loved the Chiefs all week.
So to me, we're we're compromising really on the Saints
and the Patriots where we just completely disagree, and the
(23:50):
Raiders I feel like you don't love but you still
bet it and you can.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Yeah, Like I said, I bet it and I completely
see you, rationale, and I told you. The trends also
point to it being, yes, technically a good spot for
this Raires team, which aget I couldn't leave they exist
because this Rares team just seems dreadful in so many ways.
But yeah, it's uh. I just locked it in, brother.
Because game Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Pittsburgh Colts.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Our final picks are Carolina plus three and a half,
Steelers minus four and a half, Colts minus six and
a half, Chiefs minus one and a half, Raiders minus
four and a half. Don't forget all these contest lines.
Sometimes they move. That's why we're taking them. We're playing
(24:40):
the market and the numbers and the latest information. Well done,
really good dialogue, Simon, I really appreciate it. This has
been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We
will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight live seven
point thirty ish to recap all the misery and glory
of the day, probably coming on right after the disgustingness
(25:01):
of that Raiders Titans games. Watch or listen on YouTube
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Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get
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you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love
you
Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by Hard Rought that we
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chadmlman. I am joined
as always by my BFF, my companion, my compadre professional better,
(00:22):
Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Are we doing brother?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Listen? This is why we do the show on Sunday
mornings because so much has changed even since the Thursday show.
There are injuries to a lot of the games we discussed.
There have been a lot of line moves for a
lot of the games we've discussed the entire week, both
positively and negatively. So I love that we're getting a
(00:47):
chance to review and make decisions after we have full
clarity of the entire field. We're going to get into
that in a second. First, I want to remind everybody,
as many of you know in the past, in a
previous iteration of the show, we've had a totally free
to play NFL Pick Them contest. We've given away some
(01:10):
big prizes. Because we had to launch Sharper Square so
quickly before the season began, we ran out of time
to launch the contest. But thanks to our very benevolent
sponsors at hard Rock Back Week by hard Rock Back,
we can announce that a free Sharper Square NFL Pick
Them contest will be launching very very very very very
(01:34):
very very soon. We can't give out the official date yet,
but stay tuned. We'll have more announcements coming up this week.
All right, this is the strip down in the room
eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going
to try to nail down our final five picks. Now that,
as I've said, we've got injuries, we've got line moves,
all that stuff. Simon, are you ready ready?
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Brother?
Speaker 1 (01:55):
All right? So starting off Dallas at Carolina. We've let
Carolina all week. It was at three and a half.
It's now down to three. We're getting it at three
and a half in our contest. The wise guys have
liked it. Bryce Young is improving, Carolina's defense is actually improving.
Carolina is getting healthier. Dallas still incredibly banged up coming
(02:18):
off of two incredibly big, high profile wins. The Cowboys
have I still like the Panthers at plus three and
a half.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
Yeah, and you know it's a line that I thought
would keep coming down. There's one book at minus two
and a half, so you know that's where I thought
they would be someday. So I'm honestly shocked its stolen
at three. But for a good reason. Right The public
loves this Cowboys team. They've been good to them. Carolina
is an up and down team. I don't think people
(02:51):
fully trust them yet. I don't think people fully come
around to what mean you have, which is a ton
of love and respect for Bryce Young, Like I just
you go back and watch. This is not like we
said there. This is not a good Carolina team. But
he keeps finding a way. He keeps pushing the ball downfield,
which is what we wanted to see from the man
in this matchup. We talked about Dak could easily burn
us here, but at this number.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
I feel a lot safer. And even at the.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
Plus three, I still think that's a good number for
this Carolina team. I just can see this easily being
a shootout. Last team the ball obviously wins, you know
the To me, the bump in this line, I know
it sounds crazy. I do think it has to do
a lot with the Cowboys kicker that he is such
a weapon, and that's why it's held at this three
because I do think normally this would be a two
(03:37):
to two and a half line. So we've loved it.
I would say I loved it more than you, and
I think you've come around, especially on Thursday show this
Carolina side, and you know three and a half.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
I knew.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
I feel like I knew Sunday we were never gonna
avoid this one at this number. I just the Cowboys team,
like we keep saying, they have so many injuries, how
can they not be overvalued? It's really I mean, Dak
is just you know, he's in the MVP conversation.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
He should be. It's like what he's done this season
with this team is incredible.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
So yeah, once again, all about the number trying to
go up, hyper focused on the quarterbacks here and all
the trends that loved Dak in this exact spot.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
I think this is a number.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
That's a little overvalued in a three and a half
in the contest, I got to take it.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Brother.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Look, the only thing that is starting to scare me
a little bit is there's potential weather and wind impacting
the game. Yeah, and like that could turn it into
a much lower scoring game. Right, that could change how
these teams approached the passing game and see what it'll
do to their ability to move the ball downfield. But
I and look the Cowboys. Javonte Williams has been great
(04:44):
this year, but things trending for chib Hubbard to play again.
Even then, Rico Daudell had two hundred yards rushing last week,
So I'm still going to be on the side of
the Panthers here. Agree. It took me a minute, but
I got there.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I even think about They're right. I think we're getting
like a crazy Nor'eastern crazy So yeah, that's fair.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
I have honest I think that might play in our total.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
The totals come down from fifteen out of forty and
a half, so yeah, obviously the money has agreed with
you that this weather could affect this game.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
All right, Chargers minus three and a half. Now at Miami,
this was our brass balls bet of the week when
it was Chargers minus four. I am not going to
feel obligated to put this into the contest because there
are other lines that are moving so aggressively that we
got to play the best opportunities that we have when
(05:34):
we're putting our favorite five in there. So the fact
that it's moved against us, it's at four and a
half in the contest, it's it's three and a half now.
There have been some more injuries reported for the Chargers,
Quentin Johnston potentially going to be out, if not already
ruled out. People were asking me why this was brass balls,
(05:56):
and the reason it was brass balls is because we
were betting on the road favorite that is getting a
preponderance of the bets, but the money is coming in
on Miami, so that makes it a ballsy pick because
we are definitively against the wise guys. I don't like
the way the number has moved against us in terms
of putting it in the contest.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
I still like them, but I agree they're probably number
five or six now for me, so I have no
issue if they're the last one out. I just I
love this spot for the Chargers, and that's why it's
a rest balls bet. It's it feels like a very
very small amount of professionals are taking this Chargers team.
I think everyone's kind of left them for dead here
because of all the injuries, and like we said, this
(06:36):
is usually a game where TUA at Home performs well,
but I still think the Chargers a undervalue here. But
I agree, there's there's other games we can we can
break down.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
To be clear for anyone watching, we still like the Chargers.
We're both on the Chargers. If you want to take
the Chargers three and a half, take the Chargers of
three and a half. I just don't like the value
that we're getting in the contest compared to what the
Suger currently is. Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh currently is six
point favorite. Look, we've been touting the Steelers every show
(07:09):
this week. Tuesday we loved him at four and a half.
Thursday we loved him at five and a half. It's
now six trending to six and a half. It's good.
It's going to be a bigger number than what we
have been saying people should choose all week four and
a half in our contest lines a lock on Wednesday.
Reminder to people, I think anyone who is watching right now,
(07:31):
you've lost the value on the Steelers. It's at you know,
most places, it's probably trending to six and a half,
so you're just not getting the best of the number.
But geez, the Steelers rested with just about everybody back
still like him in the contest for sure.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Yeah, and this is probably once in seven years of
us doing that. We're taking Tomlin over a field goal
favorite at home and this is always a fade spot
for us, So it must really really be a good
spot if we're taking them in our contests and we've
been preaching in all week. We just it's the number.
It's a situation. The trends all point to it as well.
Like I read off all those Tomlin trends after the
(08:09):
bye week, especially early bye weeks.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
If you're terrified of it, I get it. People, just
you have to at.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Least take the Steelers money aline here, Like there's no
excuse to pass on this one in this spot. So yeah,
it's as the Browns go. This would be legendary. If
they can go in here and win this team and
cover this number, that would be an all timer, because
it just feels like such a horrible spot for them,
So gonna be a sweat.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
I have no doubt we will be.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Down three heading into half with this Pittsburgh side. That's
just how it is when you're taking tom as a favorite.
But like Chad said, we bet it all week. I
bet it four. I bet at four and a half.
I've even betted it still this morning it's five and
a half. I bet it again because I'm like Chad,
I think it's going to keep going up to six
six and a half as the public wakes up here
early in the morning. So four and a half contest,
can't avoid it, got to put it in shed.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City is now a two
and a half point favorite. Simon. This is our rock
and a hard plays bet of the Week, presented by
a hard rock bet o.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
What a rock.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Look the chiefs of the pro side here. Any bookmaker
you talked to is telling you they have huge, huge
number of bets coming in on the Detroit Lions. They
are by far and away the public side here. And
yet this line one and a half two two and
a half, like it has not gotten to three. This
(09:46):
two and a half seems to be sort of the
line of demarcation right now. You and I have both
been betting the Chiefs. We've been betting the chief since
it was at one and a half two two and
a half. It is one and a half in our contest,
which makes me feel very good about taking them. But
this is a pro Joe's game. Is probably one of
the most pro Joe's game on the board this.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
Week for sure, And I mean, I can't tell you
many football clips.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
I felt like people are sending me of.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
People in this business trying to figure out why this
line is what it is, while also being like, this
is the easiest bet of my life taking Detroit. This
is a no brainer and we've seen all the time
public wins that could be proven right, but long term,
very very very stupid bet to think you are smarter
than the books and you know more about a line.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Well, these people don't even have models.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
They're just guys who are living is throwing a shit
against the wall and hoping it sticks. When they're the
ones that are feeling super confident about Detroit. Anyone, if
you had any type of read and you were like, well,
you guys are overthicking this. You think you're so smart
taking this Chiefs team. I gave you I know it's
small trends, but I gave you all those exact trends
of my homes in this spot against these type of
teams and spags against these type of teams. So it's
(11:00):
a juggernaut. We're standing in front of a really great
team here in Detroit. I think we're both banking on
a letdown and the fact that they have had a
very very weak schedule up to this point. It's fair
to say that. So I'm excited for this one, like,
this is a perfect game for Sunday night. And like
you said, you could have maybe tucked me out of
(11:22):
the chat this morning if it was two and a
half in our contest at one and a half. This
has been locked in for us since Tuesday, Like, this
is one of the first bets I put in for us,
no brainer, can't avoid it. We are all in on
these home teams, like I. People are gonna see this
a quick trend. Yeah, we love the home teams this week.
And this is another one where it's a good number
short favorite here, mahomes, we might get burned here long
(11:44):
term for the rest of our lives. This is a
smart bet and you should join us here. I know
it's scary, just trust the numbers, trust the data. This
is a good spot. This is a Detroit team that
is very talented. This is peak peak peak value for
them this season, and I think they're going to quickly
see like the reason all these people have them powering
to is the number one team because they haven't played
(12:05):
a great team since week one.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
So I'm going to be interesting how they do with
what we talked about.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
I think it's going to be a Spags type of
game where he takes away the run, it forces GoF
to beat them, and that's what I'm so interested to
see how how this chess match goes because I just
saw something different last week with Mahomes. I think Mahome's
going to get his They could be able to get
the thirty points in this game. Ken Goff keep up?
Can he get to that number? So yeah, minus one
and a half love the Chiefs here.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Well, look, there's also a lot of injuries for the
Lions that really haven't been discussed very much this week,
especially in their defensive backfield, but also along their offensive line.
Amman Russ Saint Brown was banged up most of the week,
didn't practice most of the week. This game is on grass,
which is a different track than the Allions have been
(12:51):
winning and dominating on for the past few weeks, and
as many trends as there are for Mahomes that are
also those trends for the Lions covering in prime time
and how good Dan Campbell is. I don't want to
discount that, but I still feel like we're just it's
the very first thing you said. People need to understand.
(13:12):
Bookmakers don't have models for the lines they set. They
eyeball these things, They get some numbers from consultants, The
lines get pounded into shape, generally by betters around the world. Really,
this line has been moving in the Chiefs direction despite
every single bet from the public coming in on the Lions.
(13:35):
It's rare that bookmakers take a stand. They've taken a
stand and said that they like the Chiefs in this game.
So we're going to be with the bookmakers. Today's show
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and Virginia. I think we've got Carolina three and a half,
(15:47):
Pittsburgh four and a half. It's bigger currently, we understand,
but we're playing the contest line Kansas City minus one
and a half. Again, we still like the Chiefs of
two and a half. We're playing the contest line. I
think we got to talk about Arizona at Indianapolis. We've
been talking about us since Sunday. You said last Sunday Night,
Early Leans on the Sunday Night Show Indy was four
(16:10):
and a half. I think that's what I bet it
at We liked it. Then it's been slowly creeping up. Now,
probability that Kyler Murray isn't going to play this line
has jumped from moving It was at six and a
half seven now it's at nine nine and a half,
nine at hard Rock nine and a half, other places
in our contest at six and a half. I'm not
(16:32):
recommending anybody play it at nine and a half, but sorry, folks,
we got to talk about it. We've liked the Colts
all week at a good number. Now it's exploded. How
do we not play this?
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Yeah, six and a half we're not played.
Speaker 3 (16:46):
I mean, it's if you didn't miss it, even though
we talked while you should have taken on Thursday show.
Is that Kyler is banged up, he wasn't practicing. There
were still six and a half's even on our Thursday show.
You know, did jump up to seven and a half Friday,
then back down and then once the chefid tweet came
out that he's has a really high chance of missing.
Like Chad said, it shot away to nine and a half.
(17:08):
I don't hate it obviously at nine and a half,
but I obviously much prefer when it was under those
key numbers.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
And it's just a bad spot.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
Pers And I gave you those trends about teams that
play in three straight games that have lost by a
field goal of the fourth game either two and eight
against the spread one and nine straight up, so historically
bad spot going back, just teams, they can only take
so much, right, Like we said, these are human beings.
How do you not just get beaten by this? Like
beaten down by losing so many close games in a row.
(17:37):
Now you've lost your supposed leader, your quarterback, and you know,
Scubersecund maybe win you a game.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
He's the type of guy. He could steal a game.
He is a vet.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
He is also a statue, but that's very limited mobility,
doesn't have the best arm. This is just it feels
like to me, a locker room guy, like not someone
you want starting for you, let alone against a Colt
team that just like it looks like absolutely juggering out.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
So could we get burned?
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Could the Colts finally have a really bad game and
we get burned by it?
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Sure?
Speaker 3 (18:07):
And they're coming off what a thirty forty point win
against the Raiders last week, But I just think they're rolling.
They're such a good team. Arizona feels like the totally opposite.
They are just not as not as well coached in
the sense. And yeah, this is like we said all
about the number six and a half, no brainer got
to put in the contest.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
It's a number play, all right. So now we got
four games that we like. We got three games that
we got to discuss, New England at New Orleans. This
is three and a half for New Orleans. This is
your assignment, says lots of love both sides here from professionals.
You were taking a stand. I disagree. Doesn't mean we
(18:47):
don't have to put it in the contest. The other game,
Tennessee at the Raiders. The Raiders are minus four. This
was Chad's choice. Sometimes we got to do gross things
and bet on bad quarterbacks who are a bit of
a train wreck, like Geno Smith. I feel like I'm
kind of dragging you along on this one. So we
(19:07):
have those two competing with each other. Then we got
the Chicago Bears plus four and a half at Washington,
and I want to talk about all three of them
together because the Bears will be healthier than they have
been all year. TJ. Edwards the linebacker is back, Kyler Gordon.
Defensive back is back, Austin Booker back at defensive end,
Colston leveland back at tight end. Darnell right tackle is back.
(19:30):
Terry McLaurin is out. For Washington. So we've got a
game that you like that I don't in New Orleans,
New England, a game that I love that you're mediocre
on in the Raiders and Tennessee, and then the Chicago
Bears plus four and a half at Washington on Monday night.
Speaker 3 (19:49):
So I mean, I can we talk to other things
because right now what I'm looking at, I know it's stupid.
People shouldn't think this way, but like, this is the
original five I've put in for us on whatever that
was Tuesday after our show. I had the Colts, I
had Pittsburgh, I had Carolina, I had New Orleans, and
I had the Chiefs. So those are five home teams,
which again not a big deal. It doesn't really matter.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
And by the way, those are four other than the Saints.
Those are the four teams we're still.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
On and for of those picks, so Colts, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Saints,
they're all one o'clock. So it's also like a thing
where it's like, well, no, right away, are we zero
for four for the day?
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Four? No, whatever it is, it's all we're all in
on the one o'clock.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
That's why it's like, I'm not as confident as you
are in the Vegas one at all.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
But like I bet it, it's it is a good spot.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
Obviously nordbrock Bowers is like a huge negative sea. But
the fact that, like you know, most books, it is
Tennessee money, which was shocking to me. There is professional
love for Tennessee in the public for the most part
has joined them. But yeah, I just I don't really
have a read on it. I mean, it is tough.
(21:02):
Like I love the Bears, I'm with you on it.
I just I don't get why it's still four and
a half at every book.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
I don't either. It's so it's so weird that this
thing has not budged.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
So that's when I had attention with that one.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
That really worries me. I'm not gonna lie because I
get just this game never should have been four and
a half. It should have been three.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
No.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
So like right now, two very public players were on
Colts Pittsburgh. Both are very good numbers if you want
to just go with the professional side, Carolina Saints Chiefs.
That's basically where we're at with those where it's just
like we're trusting the number.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
We're with the pros. It's good numbers, you know, but.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
Like my my fear is the public has just been
getting killed. That's why, like I'm a little hesitant speak
where it's like they're going to have their weak the public.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
They're going to get their revenge at some point.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
So still, like I guess said, still saying, still think
it's a good number.
Speaker 2 (21:59):
Can it be our last one out? Like would I
rather have Vegas in there?
Speaker 3 (22:02):
If Chad's feeling really good about it, got no issue
with it, Chicago one. That's that's a little hesitation for
me because it's like I don't know if I can
allow us to do it because we both know there's
red flags right now.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
With red flags. Yeah it is.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
It is the red flag boyfriend of all games. Yeah,
it's weird that I never feel confident about the Bears
and I feel confident and maybe I'm leaning too much
into this is the this is the game where the Bears,
you know, get rid of their demons from last year
where the trouble started and they cratered after that, lost
(22:39):
to the Commanders, and they got players coming back, they're
off a bye week. I'm all in on Ben and Caleb,
Like I'm just so enthusiastic.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
So, like, my view is, you supported me on the Chiefs,
you supported me on Carolina.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
You don't want to support me on the Saints. If
you want to go Raiders.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
Over SATs Raiders.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
Yeah, I'm okay with it, even though it's like a
spot we normally don't take. I just I can't get
over how how insane this line movement has been with
this Raider's number. And I know again all the pros
on the other side. I think I even saw some
three and a half's pop with that Tennessee side, so
like you could get Raiders of minus three and a half,
which is shocking to me.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
So we're going against it.
Speaker 3 (23:19):
But like I said, it's uh, I got to pick
and choose my battles. You're nice enough to give me
these Panthers, which is gross, and the Chiefs, which is gross.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Yeah, but I don't.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Feel like I'm giving you that. I actually I now
love the Panthers and loved I've loved the Chiefs all week.
So to me, we're we're compromising really on the Saints
and the Patriots where we just completely disagree, and the
(23:50):
Raiders I feel like you don't love but you still
bet it and you can.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Yeah, Like I said, I bet it and I completely
see you, rationale, and I told you. The trends also
point to it being, yes, technically a good spot for
this Raires team, which aget I couldn't leave they exist
because this Rares team just seems dreadful in so many ways.
But yeah, it's uh. I just locked it in, brother.
Because game Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Pittsburgh Colts.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Our final picks are Carolina plus three and a half,
Steelers minus four and a half, Colts minus six and
a half, Chiefs minus one and a half, Raiders minus
four and a half. Don't forget all these contest lines.
Sometimes they move. That's why we're taking them. We're playing
(24:40):
the market and the numbers and the latest information. Well done,
really good dialogue, Simon, I really appreciate it. This has
been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We
will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight live seven
point thirty ish to recap all the misery and glory
of the day, probably coming on right after the disgustingness
(25:01):
of that Raiders Titans games. Watch or listen on YouTube
at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel.
Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get
your pods. Rate review, subscribe us five stars, Say whatever
you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love
you
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Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!