Another winning week in their contest is locked in, as Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into their betting results from NFL Week 6. Together they check in on the gambling action after a tumultuous Sunday of NFL action left them a successful 3-1 with their contest pick on Sunday Night Football still pending. Plus, we get all their early NFL Week 7 picks, predictions, best bets and leans. Games recapped today include Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers vs Miami Dolphins, the New Orleans Saints vs Drake Maye and New England Patriots, Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, and much more. #Volume
0:07:30 - PANTHERS vs COWBOYS
0:012:49 - BROWNS vs STEELERS
0:17:39 - CARDINALS vs COLTS
0:21:00 - TITANS vs RAIDERS
0:27:39 - REMAINING GAMES RECAP
0:53:09 - EARLY NFL WEEK 7 BETS
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention very true. Today, I am Chadmullman.
I am joined by my co host, my companion Mike Cambadre,
(00:22):
my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Hello, So I'm in Chad. How are we doing? Brother man?
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Oh Man? I feel like we're awesome because we're gonna
break down the day and I think we feel pretty
good about where we landed three and one on the day.
We got the Chiefs minus one and a half. Later
tonight that line is steaming up to three in some spots,
(00:54):
so we feel pretty good about the closing line value
we got there. Our picks from today the winners the
Panthers plus three and a half, the Steelers minus four
and a half, the Raiders minus four and a half.
They made it a little bit of a sweat, and
then we had the Colts minus six and a half,
which we lost. Our last ones out today where the
(01:18):
Saints plus three and a half and the Chargers minus
four and a half. So as always, we are exactly
where we would be no matter what decisions we had made,
because we would have replaced the Colts with the Saints
or the Chargers. We're going to get to all of
our early leans. We're going to get to an entire
(01:40):
review of all of our picks. We're going to get
to our live comments from the chat. One thing I
do want to say. The most remarkable stat I heard today, Simon,
are you ready?
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (01:55):
The New York Jets had minus ten total passing yards
accounting for all the sacks and lost yardage on passing
downs today. That is the lowest in I think twenty
seven years in the NFL. Justin Fields was sacked nine times.
(02:19):
He had nine completions in a game the Jets lost
thirteen to eleven. We didn't bet it. We talked all
week how we leaned Jets plus seven and a half,
but we didn't really have the guts to do it,
and to ask anyone listening or watching to do it
as far as putting it in the contest. But they
(02:40):
are just thinking and finding new ways to look incompetent
and lose games. I don't know if you watched any
of that game, you know came on as we were
doing our show this morning. But wow, wow, I just
I don't even feel bad for him because it's so incompetent.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Yeah, I bet it, and I got really lucky. You
had the Denver money line right the round robin and uh,
never in a million year should they have won that
game Denver. Yeah, Aaron Glenn experiment it might be over
on that flight back. He looks totally incompetent, and yeah,
just a disaster right now for the Jets and the organization.
(03:19):
And you're right, like we we talked about that. It
was just simply playing the number ad zero faith in
that Jets team, and Denver did everything they could to
keep the Jets in that game. So yeah, that was
a game. I'm I'm glad it was in England. That's
the perfect game for yes, type that type of game.
So yeah, the the Jets get the cover. Should have
won in a million different ways. And I can't believe
(03:40):
they're what owns six now?
Speaker 1 (03:42):
So win six Dallas at Carolina Carolina plus three and
a half. Look, kudos to you. On Tuesday, I was noncommittal.
You were all in. You wanted to make this, Simon says.
I came around, I saw the beat in the play.
(04:02):
We've now cashed a couple of tickets on the Panthers.
Good for us. Like, the game was kind of everything
we thought it would be in the first half, right,
like whether it was not a factor, it was just
pure offense. The defense was terrible. Nobody could stop anybody.
Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. Just
(04:23):
a blast to watch this game because I honestly never
felt like we were out of it. I felt like,
no matter what happened, we were going to be able
to keep this game close and have a little bit
of a sweat and not feel like it was a
dead bet at any point.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Yeah, and Dak still playing out of his mind, gave
us a scare there. But brag Seong obviously played really well.
But the Rico Dow thing, it's there's no model, there's
nothing that can predict there. That's like totally fluke of fluke.
I think he's a first play in NFL history to
have twenty yards from scrimmage up back to back games
that was undrafted. It's like pretty legendary. Uh. Yeah, that's
(04:58):
again not something we accounted ford. We did to account
for it just being an absolutely shoot out. Two terrible defenses,
and uh yeah, surprisingly Carolina's defense got to stop playing
needed to Like, yes, bray Seung went three and out,
they punted it to deck and they held him and
they got the ball back, and yeah, the obviously the
rest is history. They'd rather feel got that field goal.
And it's it sounds stupid because the sample sizes so small,
(05:21):
but there's real evidence and it keeps happening. You saw
a bray Seong plays better at home, Like yeah, yeah,
for sure, whatever it is, I don't know, there's there's
nothing we can really factor into it. But he just
looked more comfortable even when they're they're losing. He kept
getting the ball back. He just kept driving down the field.
And like we said, Ricadal the run game, Uh yeah,
(05:43):
they got a real decision of making true behobble. It
comes back because he's he's talented, but this is this
is insane, like like again flashing the pan, who knows,
but back to back games two hundred yards from scrimmage,
just as fluky as that could be, it's not flucky
if he does it back to back.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Well, look, he We've got a segment later in the
show where I want to break down Rico dow Dell
because he's been so awesome the past two weeks, one
hundred and eighty three rushing yards today. He also led
the team in receiving. I think it was four catches
for fifty six yards. And we're gonna go deeper on
(06:20):
his success and what that how it sort of is
indicative of some things that the Panthers have been doing.
This is what I loved about this game. Eight straight
drives without a punt. The Cowboys had thirty one rushing yards.
I don't know if you noticed, but in the past
twenty four hours, like all the buzz and the alerts
(06:43):
you get at ESPN for various teams and the headlines,
should the Cowboys start thinking about re signing Javonte Williams
now because he's on a one year deal and he's
gonna be a free agent and he's been so amazing.
Thirty one yards of rushing today for the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
They couldn't stick them block though. Again that's why this
whole acting is crazy. I can't get around good he's playing.
Whether they have I think they showed the stat it's
like the most guys through five games on their offensive line.
I've pretty much played and start for them since nineteen seventy.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
So that's that's what's crazy, and that's why we like
the game. Like it's one of the reasons we like
the game. We thought the Panthers were getting healthier, we
like you know, and we like the Panthers defense. I
think it's been improving. There's metrics to show that it
has been getting better. Again, doesn't mean we're going to
bet the Panthers by the way plus one and a
half on the road next week against the New York Jets.
(07:42):
It's astounding how the NFL does this right, like puts
us in this position where we want to go now
back a team on the road in a terrible spot
that we've now won two weeks in a row with
or I just.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Told you the deal with Bryce Yeng.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
I know we don't, but that's what I'm saying, Like,
that's how they set it up up, Like they are
playing with our minds.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
No, they're playing with there, that's the public's minds they're
playing with. We're sharp. We're sharp, chab, we won't get
sucked in.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
We are very sharp.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
So we'll talk about I mean, no rush to go
get that Jets number though I was gonna say.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Like, in twenty five minutes, are you telling me we're
going to be answering questions about what we'd be betting the
Jets at minus one and a half, Carolina outgained them
by one hundred and twenty yards, had twelve More's first downs.
It shouldn't have been It shouldn't even have been that close.
Like they really were just a much much better team
than the Cowboys, And anytime the Cowboys started to run
(08:38):
away with it or had a chance to, Bryce Young
found a way to brice it up. The Bryce is right.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
I just thought, Bryce, that was again big time through
is them McMillan getting more comfortable. I think it was
his first game the touchdown. He had two touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
Yeah, yeah, he also had a babble that led to
a Bryce Young pick. Young was a baller fourth and two.
They go for it. Love this team, Love them at home.
We're going to talk a little bit more about Rico
later Cleveland. At Pittsburgh, we had the Steelers minus four
and a half. Got a ton of closing line value
(09:16):
because this thing closed at six and a half. We
had we'd started betting the Steelers early in the week
I don't know about you. I want to get your
take here. I kind of got the sense that the
Steelers were going to be very conservative because they knew
the Browns offense was going to struggle. It was nine
to three at half.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
A little bit. Honestly, I think it's just the Steelers offense,
like Rogers, He's not gonna he's gonna always take what
the defense the defense gives them, and he's gonna wait
for him make a mistake. And that's what it felt like.
He missed a couple of throws in that first half,
like you said, and it was really boring and he
was patient. Yeah, but once him and Deca kind of
got into a groove, it's that's the key for them.
(09:59):
Like it's just such a big hit weapon. Anytime touched
to the ball, I could take it the whole way.
So yeah, that was honestly went exactly as we talked
about how it was gonna go this. This They're putting
this rookie in a brutal situation, a brutal spot maybe
would have been a little differently. Obviously, if it's Joe Flacco,
like I thought, he would be able to handle that
travel short rest week better than a rookie, and you
(10:22):
saw it like that, like shows nine to nothing first half.
I don't know about you, but I was like, there's
no scenario. Even when they got the field goal was
nine three, It's like, there's still no scenario. I think
they're gonna come back. So yeah, that's uh, that was
pretty insane.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Honestly, that was the you know, before we came out
of the air, I felt like we didn't have a
ton of anxiety in that early window. You know, the
Panthers was a sweat, but the Panthers, I also felt
like the whole time they were in the game, I
never felt like we needed a miracle from the Panthers
(11:00):
to cover and the Steelers they were just in control
the whole time. I got a theory. I'm not saying, like,
oh my god, the Steelers are going to run away
with the division, but you just said something that I
was thinking about earlier today. Mike Tomlin loves to play conservative, right.
(11:22):
He just wants his quarterbacks to not screw it up
because no, he knows his defense in certain situations is
going to be able to make the plays. And today
they were like when they were fully healthy. Alex Highsmith
was all over the field. They had a really good game,
right Aaron Rodgers twenty one to twenty eight, couple hundred yards,
(11:42):
you know, totally perfectly fine game, didn't throw it away.
When's the last time Mike Tomlin had a quarterback that
he could rely on to really not make the stupid
mistakes that would have to make his defense be playmakers,
not just normal defensive play.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, like I'm saying there, he's boring. Like you just said,
it's it's working for him. Yeah, but I think we're
all on the same board where it's like it's not
gonna work. It can't keep working all year. So like
it's working like it did last year for them early
in the year. It's gonna be interesting how teams adjust
to this what they're doing with Rogers because, like I
just said, he's not pushed on the ball downfield and
it's working so well.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Look, their best drive, their best drive after you know,
they had been struggling offensively. They got a fourth and four,
they punted the ball, there was a roughing the kicker,
the punter, They get the first down. The rest of
that drive is John Newsmith a ten yard run. Jalen
Warren an eleven yard run, Jalen Warren a ten yard run,
(12:47):
a couple of non plays, Aaron Rodgers a twelve yeard
touchdown pass Like that was sort of the classic Steelers playbook.
Take advantage of penalty, drive down the field with conservative play,
run the ball, don't make mistakes. Keep Dylan Gabriel throwing
it fifty two times for three yards in attempt. Did
(13:10):
you know that? Three yards in attempt? I mean, that's
it's gonna be interest.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Pittsburgh defense looked much healthier obviously in this game after
the five weeks, so it gonna be interesting what they're
gonna be like going forward.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
It's also gonna be interesting with the Browns. They're they're
kind of an unbetable offense, accept in the most obvious situations,
which is when they are at home.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
Is big underdogs just at home though, like at home
against the bad team again, They're they're gonna be an
interesting team going forward because, like you said, it's anytime
we bet them, it's it's one hundred percent faith in
the defense, zero faith in the quarterback.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
Well, guess what we get to do this week? Talk
about Cleveland is a one and a half point home
favorite against the Miami.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Dolphins already two and a half.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
It's already up to two and a half. Yeah, wow,
well we're not going to talk about that. Then Arizona
at Indie. This was our lone loss of the day
so far.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
Look like.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Whether whether we put Arizona and Indie in or the
Chargers in Miami when we like the Chargers, or the
Saints and the Patriots where you and I just couldn't agree, like,
or the Jags and the Seahawks where you and I
weren't on the same page, Like there was no scenario here.
We weren't going to lose this game.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
Yeah, honestly, just tough beat Perssette just played out of
his mind and expected there there's to be some flicky players.
But like we joked about, like when he's hid in
thirty and eighteens and third and fifteen's and there's this
guy streaking wide open. I think before the game, like
the number one or number two corner of the Colt's
got concussion and warm ups and anthey Richards had hurt
(14:47):
himself in warm ups.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
Like there he broke his orbital bone in warm ups.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Yeah, so yeah, bizarre start of the game, you know,
really felt like if Daniel Jones had his ace game,
they probably would have rolled and blown him out. But
he just didn't play well for the start of the game,
missed a couple of throws, threw a really bad pick,
and Prissette just made big time throws, Like you just
(15:13):
didn't expect that there as an offense, and uh, yeah,
it's tough you bet these big chalk favorites like that perfect. Yeah,
you just you can't really have the mistakes and you
also you can't have the other team always just in
a weird number. Right. There was either they were up
by three or the game was tied, and at no
point it was like, okay, we need kind of a
(15:34):
miracle here to cover a six and a half and yeah,
we just didn't bounce our way in that game. So fortunate,
Like it's the one game that honestly going into when
we were picking through the games, it's like, oh, this
one feels honestly easy. Was getting three points of value
on it and uh, just a bad number. We got
suckered into it.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
Although one of the things that we thought the Colts,
if we've been betting the close this year, it's been
because of Jonathan Taylor like we talked about how good
their offensive line is, how big they are. Jonathan Taylor
once again on one of their scoring drives early in
the game, carried it five times for fifty three yards,
(16:11):
including a fourteen yarder and a thirty yarder. We talked
about earlier in the week how this guy has more
ten yard rushing plays than anybody in the league. Also,
they had a great stat in the game. He's one
of five players to average ninety more than ninety yards
(16:33):
per game to start his career, I think in his
first five years or something like that. How amazing is
that it's like him, Eric Dickerson, Jim Brown, Walter Payton, like,
you know, just Hall of famers and Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Yeah, his draft class. I don't even think he was
the first running back take and I think the Chiefs
a free Dame guy took another guy, ce H I
forgot his name.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
Oh oh oh yeah, Clyde Humphy, Clyde Hilaire, right, yes,
that guy from Els.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
As much shit as I like giving the Colts GM
that was That was a nice draft pick.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
All right, we got to talk about Tennessee at Las Vegas.
This was Chad's choice. I made the call this morning
that we're going to put this one in and listen,
Geno Smith is really bad. Yeah, Which do you think
(17:35):
was the most incompetent play of Genios because he had
a couple back to back. Was it when he was
pressured and threw the ball inside the Titans red zone
directly to Cody Barton when they were up seventeen to
three and basically could have put the game away. Or
(17:55):
was it when he tried to slide I think in
the next series and didn't slide and instead banged his
knee and came limping off the field.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
I mean, they're all terrible. My favorite thing was they
kept putting up his stats and it was like twenty
to three or seventeen to three, like you said, and
he had like forty six yards passing he did. Well, look,
that's just a wreck offense.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Right. When we talked about this game, my breakdown of
it was, just give it to Ashton Genty. Give it
to Ashton Genty. Just run the ball, like Tennessee is
not very good at stopping the run. Take it out
of Gino's hands. It really felt for a little while
like Chip Kelly had totally listened to this podcast and
(18:37):
was channeling everything that you and I had talked about
during the week. At one point, until midway through the
fourth quarter, Gino Smith had not thrown a ball more
than fifteen yards downfield. Then he had one play where
he threw it more than fifteen yards downfield converted a
first down. The announcers all of a sudden, they're like,
(18:58):
he's playing great, He's so efficient, They're doing such a
good job. He's understanding that his mistakes are coming when
he's dropping back and taking too much time, and Chip
Kelly understands that it's the mistakes that come when he's
trying to get receivers open downfield. Make the quick throw,
don't make it. The decision for Gino Literally the next
(19:18):
play is when he's rushed, just dumps it into Cody
Barton's arms like he's the only thing that would have
kept that from winning that game. It's great.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
You know Raiders defense did step up. I think you
know a bunch of times they needed big time sacks
or big time plays. Overall, Yes, they gave a lot
of problems with cam Warden. That trend about those quarterbacks.
You know that cam Wardon's going to join it of
having these insane comebacks as a rookie and then losing
by double digits. It held true. They lost by ten
in this game, So yeah, that was a unique spot
(19:51):
to back a Raiders team that I don't know about you,
but it feels like the Jacks from last week, like
we got away with one here totally. I don't know
if I feel like back them at all, no matter
what their number is the next week.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
I don't ever want to bet the Raiders again. I
don't want to. I don't want to, Like there are
teams that I just want to take up the board
that I feel like.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
You know, get right. He's just not right yet, like
you said, And that's why I don't want to bet him.
It's just I can't trust him.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
The Raiders and the Jacks, I don't want to bet
either of them any more. I feel like we got
our money, you know, we earned it. We by the
way we did the right thing and fading the Titans.
You know, it's always been scary for us to fade
a team that is always, you know, is such a
huge underdog, and yet we did the right thing. The
Raiders did try to give it away right, Like.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
Oh my god, I thought for sure we were getting
back door at the end.
Speaker 1 (20:36):
I mean like that back door for anybody who wasn't
watching it. And the only reason you would watch it
is because you had money on this game, even though
it was like one of three games. So if you
can do a triple box through multiview, you might have
had it on. It was literally the corner TV game,
like it was on in the corner of my television.
And of the game, it's fourth and fifteen from the
(20:58):
Titans two yard line and the Raiders don't defend the
middle of the field and the Titans were to throw
a little dump off and the guy gets the first down,
and then the very next play they throw a long
out to Van Jefferson. All of a sudden they're at
the fifty yard line, like with a minute left. I'm like,
are you are you fucking kidding me that we're going
(21:19):
to give up this game? And then cam Wore fumbles
the ball and they recover and it's over it. But
that one had me standing. It had me standing in
front of the television.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Yeah, and just I don't know the analytics stuff, like
Pikaro had the ball at the thirty sixth of Tennessee.
I don't get why not kick the field goal? There?
Go up right, go bat another three? Now you're up,
you know whatever. That would have been sixteen or thirteen
whatever it was. And just I was like, oh my god,
I mean chedd are really gonna get this back door here?
But yeah, in the end, it worked out.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
It worked out for us. All right, let's do a
quick quick word from our friends at hard Rocks. I
want to catch up on some other games that we
didn't get into the contest. Today's show is brought to
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(22:07):
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All right, look. One of the most controversial games that
we talked about this week was New England at New
(23:32):
Orleans at three and a half. We left it out
to save our marriage, frankly, and Drake May was great.
He was just great. And Vrabel coached him up. And
what did you see in that game? Did the Saints
feel like the team that you thought they were going
to be? Where the paths better than you expected? Give
me your take on that game.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Yeah, I mean, honestly, the Saints fell like the right side.
You needed Drake May to do something that I honestly
didn't think he was going to do, which is play
out of his mind. And once he did in that
first half, he didn't do shit the second half.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:05):
Two huge throws in the second half, honestly, I'll give
him credit for that were like third and eleven and
a third and seven that were really big time throws.
But that first half he was making these plays that
were just like, dude, you there's there's no way this
kid can make these plays like out of the world,
moving in the pocket, just bombing a downfield. It would
(24:25):
either be perfectly underthrown or perfectly timed on the receiver's part,
where like the defenders would just miss. It could just
be the same. Secondary was just terrible at you know,
a lot of stuff they were doing, but tons of
credit to Drake may Like that. That Bills game again,
that felt like a very will win. He did some
nice things with this Saints game. This was Drake may Like,
this is the type of game that a top five,
(24:48):
top ten quarterback wins. And again I don't think he
is that. So I was like, there's no way he's
gonna be to live up to the next game, and
he did. Like that first half. You know, I think
they got the two point of so they scored twenty
two points in the first half. Yeah, only scored three
in the second, and that was the kind of Verabel
half where it was like, Bendon, don't break defense, let
(25:11):
Rattler make a mistake, and he shockingly didn't. It was
a receiver that fumbled the ball and just sucked all
the momentum out of the Saints. So Saints as well.
I think they only scored three points. I think it
was in the fourth quarter or so. Yeah, two teams out. Again,
they're not that different. I know the public reception is
they're very different. But yeah, respect to Drake may Like,
that was to me the most impressive half I've seen
(25:32):
him play as a professional, like his moving in the
pocket when he ran the ball outside the pocket, all
of it very impressive. So yeah, good read by you.
I'll give you credit on a bunch of things. Chad,
you got that right. And Task. I love to task
so much as it way, Yeah, and you gave it
to me. Like early on, I was like, all right,
fucking what is Chat Now, I'll check it out, I guess,
(25:53):
And yeah it's great, so good, right, it's so good.
They got the accidents right. And like when I was
really young, the most kind of country thing I would
do is go to the quarries and swim in the quarries. Yeah,
and they do it a lot on the show, like
all of it. Like yeah, so yeah, tons of props
to Chat in Indiana Hoosiers. It's just, oh my god,
it's all coming up, Chat dude.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
Yesterday I watched that game and I feel like I
know what it's like for a second to root for
a team that knows what it's doing, that isn't winning miraculously,
that isn't surprising me when they win. I'm texting a
buddy of mine who uh went to ut and I've
(26:37):
been just making fun of them all season for how
we're a football school and you know it's sad for
ut but they'll make it back. And yesterday I texted h,
I'm like, dude, big win yesterday. I totally remember those
days when we would have those big wins that we
weren't expected to win on how good it feels like
I'm rooting for you guys because Indiana their football power.
(27:00):
They're faster than they were last year, They're more talented, they.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Were no makes. That's your coach, dude. College football is
crazy what the coach does.
Speaker 1 (27:07):
He is such a good coach.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
He is looking at your recruits. It's insane what he
gets out of these kids.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
But if he stays, that team is just going to
get better and better. Better people are going to want
to play for them. The nil see.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
I got a client who is a penn State alumni
and he was just joking in our group text they're
just going to fly him an airplane with cash in it.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
Well, listen, my biggest fear right now is that Penny
State is going to go get Chris Signetti, who's got
Pennsylvania roots, and they're going to go get Malik Washington
from Maryland and so basically, the only two college football
teams I care about are then going to be starting over.
That's it. Like yesterday on multi view, I had Maryland
and I had Indiana, and like they're both going to
(27:49):
be gone next year. But Drake May, he'll be Drake May.
Just to put a period on that. To your point
about how good he was. He was five for five
with two touchdowns to start the game, perfect passer rating
in the first half eleven to thirteen, four three touchdowns,
including a great throw to boot A for twenty nine
(28:11):
years in a touchdown with thirty one seconds left. You're right,
the Saints kind of kept it exciting. Vrabel all of
a sudden didn't seem like the guy who we always
kind of under cover in the second half because he
was just trying to bleed that clock and not let
his team give it back to the Saints.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
But you don't want to turn over, and that's why
I think he coached the right where he was like
someone was gonna blink, Someone's going to make the dumb play,
and uh yeah, just a great punch out by the
defender for New England right in midfield and totally flipped
flipped the game because the momentum had just shifted. Like
you said, the New England wasn't doing anything. The moment
had to shift the Saints and we talked about coming
to the year of Vrabel is going to account for
(28:46):
two or three wins you might get to three or
four of us or like it feels like he already
has two wins this year that are verbel wins.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
We set the line of two and a half and
we bet the over cow many wins he would be
responsible for Chargers at Miami minus four and a half.
Look good for us that we cut this one out right,
like we were clearly thinking more clearly when we took
this one out, even if we replaced it with the Chiefs.
It's kind of the second time that we got got
by the Chargers in the past couple of weeks. And
(29:15):
you nailed this because you said on the show, if
this game is under ten with half a quarter left,
our bet is dead, and dude, like the Chargers were
up twenty six thirteen and then basically just gave the
game away. What the actual freak, Why can't justin Herbert
(29:37):
close teams out. It's kind of it's getting ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Well, respect him because he did actually come back and
win the game, which I'm not gonna lie. I thought,
like what you thought? I thought they were dead, Like
I couldn't believe they'd given up that lead. This is
definitely my biggest loss to day. Like I had a
bunch of adjusted lines bet two on this Chargers team
and obviously feeling pretty good. Like Chet said, they're up thirteen,
just fell apart defensively. Tough loss, and uh yeah, that
(30:03):
was brutal, Like you saw that number go from I
think it opened five to five and a half and
right before kick it was three to three and a
half in a lot of books. So some really smart
money came into that charge. Again. That Miami side that
they did, well, that was a good read by them.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
It was.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
It was a the classic, you know, Miami hot in
the sun team is worn out in the second half,
and like you said, they they basically scored a touchdown
and it's instant three and out by Chargers and their
defense team to catch your breath back on the field,
right down the field another touchdown and uh yeah, big
big deal to come back and win that game for
the Chargers because like we just said, they're sliding right now.
(30:40):
So you lose that game to a bad Miami team,
it's just don't even think about the division. You're thinking,
just can you get lucky heading forward and get a
wild card? So huge, huge win for the Chargers.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
We'll have more on the Chargers and shame, shame, shame
in a couple of minutes. One more game Seattle at Jacksonville. Really,
I just want to point out that Trevor Lawrence is trash.
That's basically it. Like, I'm kind of sick to my
stomach that I never pulled the trigger on Seattle. I
was nervous about the flipping and flopping and flipping and flopping,
(31:13):
and then I passed because of all the injuries to
their secondary. But if I'm sick to my stomach about
Trevor Lawrence, Liam cohane has to be like, can I
please get out of this contract? Do you agree with
me or disagree that Trevor Lawrence is at this point
an impediment for this Jacksonville Draguars team.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
I don't know that thing because there's like there's also
moments where he'll make throws. We're just like this, this
guy has an insane amount of talent.
Speaker 1 (31:40):
Insane talent, but I just don't think, like I know, he's.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Also head coach. I hate him. He drives me crazy.
But now they're stuck. Like it's just it's like Miami
with Tua. It's like, what are you going to do?
You didn't even get hurt or just have a toll
tank of a season, get a different quarterback just because
how many times kind of Baker Sam Donald's situation happen.
These things just don't happen. Usually turned into what Ginos
(32:04):
Smith has turned into. So they're in a tough spot
with Trevor. It's like, we see the potential. You're right,
it's he's hindering that team. That defense played well enough
to win today. Jackson Smith and Jigba in our lost tapes,
I gave him out to lead the league of thirty
five to one, and I never predicted that he would
actually be in the running to lead the league in receptions.
(32:26):
With Sam Donald, My god, is their chemistry out of
this world right now? They just I think you have
thirty points of fantasy football today. Just he's out of control.
How good he is, and he felt like he won
that game, like he was just the difference. You know,
Brian Tups junior try to match it. Had an insane
touchdown call back on a really bad penalty. And yeah,
(32:46):
they're just Seattle. This is an interesting team. Like all
the trends for them on the road, They're just a
different team on the road for some reason. They're just
a covering machine.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Yeah, I'm going to want to talk about Seattle. It's
an interesting line for them coming up next week. What
do you think is round with the Packers right now?
That offense, I thought they would destroy the Bengals. The
Bengals have been a terrible defense all year. The Packers
should have run the ball fifty times and gained eight
hundred yards and scored seventy two points against this Bengals
(33:17):
rush defense, and they can never pull away. They like
the Bengals stuck around. The Packers could not get any
offensive flow. They don't look very good.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
Now I'm part of the problem. I think. I just
like a lot of people have overrated them based off
the one game. And it happens in football. We see
a team play potentially their best game of the season
Week one against a really talented team that we had
the higher expectations for, and yeah, they couldn't. Like they
(33:50):
feel like they played with their food in a lot
of ways with this game, Like they could have pulled
away and they could have made bigger plays, and they
just do enough to win. They're an interesting team. Like
even Golden him getting more comfortable that offense, I see
that being a huge lift to that offense. Like if
you can have a reason for those two safeties to
stay up high, that could change everything, because you see,
(34:11):
their best weapon is Josh Jacobs, like his the run
game and the way he runs so violently and so hard.
It feels like when he's going, that's that's when the
offense is going. And you know Jordan Love, when he
uses his legs, it looks right and he is good.
But like you said, they just they don't have that
killer instinct, that killer mentality, and they let teams hang
around and they easily could have lost that game, Like
(34:32):
there was an opening there for a split second, and
now Jordan Love stepped up made some big throws and
uh yeah, that's a team. I think all of us
just all overrated because of Week one, And I still
think they're really talented team. I just don't think they're
that highest level super Bowl favorite juggernaut team that we
all were like, oh my god, this defense with Parsons
(34:54):
is going to be incredible. And now we're after week six,
I think all of us are just like, Okay, they're
in mid tier defense. They're not the cream of the
crop like Seattle.
Speaker 1 (35:04):
They're actually not even forcing the takeaways they did this year.
They're actually less explosive on defense and more vulnerable. They're
giving up more yards. They're looking like they don't really
know how to put teams away, like you said, offensively
or defensively. Another interesting team to watch because like you
want to bet him so bad, Like I know, we
(35:25):
both took a taste. You had the Packers outline minus six.
What a squeaky that turned out to be. But boy,
I was just hoping for a push there and then
lost all all hope at the end.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
And Joe Flacco give them props Joe Flacco for coming
in flying commercial. Man look good, Man look good. So
I don't know, it's gonna be interesting handicapping this Bengals
team going forward, because he was a difference in this game.
Like you saw Chase have confidence, you saw Higgins have
more confidence. That's that was something very noticeable in that game.
(36:01):
So yeah, They're gonna be interesting going forward.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
Since it's the Bengals. I'm surprised they even flew them.
I thought they'd just figure a horse and buggy or something.
All right, let's do shame shame, shame, shame, shame on you.
Shame shame, shame on the Chargers defense. I'd love to
(36:23):
blame their old line, I really would, which gave Justin
Herbert no no help at the end of the game.
But in the fourth quarter, the Chargers were up twenty
six to thirteen. Their defense then allowed a nine play
sixty nine yard drive and a thirteen play eighty two
(36:44):
yard drive to take the lead. In those two drives,
the Dolphins only had three third downs, so we're talking
about twenty two plays. All of them were first or
second down except for three. All of those three downs,
all three of them, we're third and short. The defense
could not come close to getting off the field, Like,
(37:05):
was it all of a sudden. They couldn't scheme was it?
Like you said, it's the end of the game, it's
the heat. I don't know. Give me your take, because
this team keeps finding ways to give away opportunities.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
I just I mean, it is injuries, but I just
think it's it's the Miami Sun. Like you get down there,
it's late in the game, and they just didn't have
their legs. Like I said, you give up that long
touchdown drive and then you're right back out there after
three plays. It just the Chargers going through and out
there killed him. So I'm with you on that one.
My shame is pretty much the same thing. My shame
is this Colts defense, same shame we're set through for
(37:49):
I believe three hundred yards or three hundred and twenty
yards against them. The craziest thing was him on third downs.
He was nine or fourteen on third downs against this
Colts defense. And it's like, okay, if it was third
and two and third and four's short field short, you know,
short yardage, it happens. But these were like third and tens,
thirty and fifteens, thirty and eighteens that they were giving
(38:09):
up wide open. Just really lazy's own defense. Just that
makes sense. Like Marvion Harris went out very early in
that game. They don't want to play man and man
with receivers after a team's number one's out. Just a
bizarre game planned by this Colts team. And again they're
so lucky, they're offensive so talent that you know, Daniel
Jones did have a great day, but like you said,
(38:30):
Jonathan Taylor averaging almost six yards per carry, he's just
an absolute game changer for this Colts team. So yeah,
for me, the shame it's got to be that Colts
defense just a total no show for us today.
Speaker 1 (38:41):
Yeah, I was actually going to go with the Colts
defense and then decided I was just angrier at the
Chargers because we had a good chance. Like we never
really had a chance to cover with the Colts, and
we did have a chance to cover.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
Because their defense. So like you can put up thirty one,
you're telling me that defense can't hold for set to
twenty points. They're giving up twenty seven points. It's crazy,
Oh totally.
Speaker 1 (39:01):
But like that was back and forth the whole time,
and like they would come back to get to that
thirty one, whereas the Chargers there were eight minutes left
in the game, six minutes left in the game when
they were up twenty six to thirteen, and they still
found a way to have to win it in the
final seconds. That is shameful, Jesse Minterter, that is shameful.
(39:22):
All right, I know who your hero of the week is.
I'm going to give you mine, but there's one game
we got to talk about that you were on a
week that is going to be your hero of the week.
Mine is Rico Dowdell. Thirty carries, one hundred and eighty
(39:44):
three yards. Here's what's interesting. I looked at next Gen Stats.
I looked at the rush chart in next Gen Stats,
which is really really cool. All but four of his
carries were up the middle. If you look at the chart,
drought with my hands here, get them really high. Like
everything was between the hash marks, you know, between the
(40:08):
tackles basically except for like four runs that were really outlied.
It's like a big you. Here's what's interesting about that. Also,
I mentioned before four reception fifty six yards team high.
The week before he had two hundred and six yards
on twenty three carries. All but two of his carries
last week went to the right side. So how cool
(40:30):
is that that back to back weeks he goes from
everything to the right side to everything up the middle.
That to me is why we were betting on the
Panthers this week. Dave Canalis is a really good coach
and He's scheming up really good game plans for his
offensive line to take advantage of weaknesses. Last week Miami,
(40:51):
this week the Cowboys. We know they're not very good defenses,
but a lot of times coaches don't take advantage of that,
and he did. I think that's awesome that may Rico
dow Doll the Panther's offensive line, and Dave canallis my
hero of the week.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
I'm gonna go with Baker. Yeah. I just look at
that line all week. I wish I had the ball
to just make us put in the contest, but it
was minus three and a half, and I said, if
it was minus two and a half would have been
a no brainer. But I just was. I didn't get
the line and the hook scared me off. Honestly, where
it's like the books must know something here they didn't.
That was a horrible spot for this four nine ers team.
(41:29):
And in another world, they sure Fred Warner plays that
full game to cover it. But you know, a mecha
Buca goes out. Yeah, it doesn't matter, Baker.
Speaker 1 (41:38):
They've lost another offensive lineman.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
Yeah. I think they're on their third right guard or
third right tackle or something crazy like that. We talked
about it. Like that play the anticitis of Baker. Third
and fifteen. He avoids a sack, you know, makes a move,
avoids another tackler, then fights through one more tackler and
reaches out with the ball to pick up the first down.
(42:00):
Next play, absolute bomb up the seam too. A guy
named I think his name is Tez, like ye a
total no name, and guy makes an unreal catch. He's
doing like backflips and shit in the back of the
end zone and Baker's just yelling the dude's face. He's
going absolutely mental after it, and it's like people want
to keep down it. They can keep trying to fade it.
(42:21):
This was a huge pro spot the pros. Basically the
book is out where top bowles defense cannot beat Shannan's offense,
like you go through any time they never played against
each other. Chan doesn't matter who the quarterback. Kiss has
dominated this matchup and it was looking that way once again,
like they were moving the ball with mac Jones. Mac
Jones though, making throws like insane throws. But you know
(42:44):
you saw it the eventually he was gonna it was
gonna catch up to him, right, He's just he's a gunslinger.
He's gonna put the balls in crazy places. And yeah,
the defense stepped up obviously made the plays, but at
the end of the day, it's just Baker incredible. I
think they one by eleven. Yeah, crazy, crazy, Like this
(43:04):
is a team that, like we just said, a mecha
book goes out for the rest of the game, Like
they just have these huge injuries right now, This this
Bucks team, they keep winning. So yeah, it's I don't
know if we'll bet on next week, but I honestly try.
I can't get enough of betting this guy. It's it's
the best.
Speaker 1 (43:17):
It's it's unreal. And that player're talking about the back
to backs that third and fourteen that he converted, he
had two guys on his back in the offensive backfield.
He escapes, he totally like deeks a guy and then
he dives to get the first down, stretches his arm.
He's stretching his arm as he's falling, like he knows
(43:39):
exactly He's like looking down the line. He knows exactly
where the first down is. Guess the first down. That
next play that was improv like the dude the receiver
broke off his his route and Baker just Loft at one.
It was one of those perfect NFL films, balls like
you'll hear the sound and then it just drops down
(44:02):
and the guy catches the back end of it. Glorious.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
They are a mature, physically powerful squad with a special
confidence that allows them to reach for heroism instead of
merely trying to avoid mistakes.
Speaker 1 (44:19):
Baker's impossible not to love, impossible not to love true,
like his MVP odds are gonna have to be the
shortest when everything reopens in the morning. Like he's just
flat balin, Baker balin the freaking best. It's gonna be
a shame. It's gonna be a shame when next week
(44:41):
we got to talk about betting against Baker Mayfield. Those
were our shame, shame shames, and our heroes of the week.
Let's recapital fast before we get the comments and Leans
Saints plus three and a half. That was Simon says,
Chad loves the Raiders minus four, Brass the Chargers minus
(45:01):
four rock in a hard place. It's tonight, Chiefs minus
two and a half, shar versus square. I had Carolina
plus three and a half. You have the Chiefs minus two.
Favorite parlay Raiders cashed, Steelers cashed, Colts cashed, Chargers cashed,
Pack minus six cashed, who lost? Simon, we had one
(45:25):
team lose Eagles, Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2 (45:31):
But I thought that was only if you were able
to make it. What was the other one we had
in there? I think that was it was the Raiders, No,
because we said we weren't going to use it. I
said it we gave about six because I said not
enough people would hear the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (45:43):
Right, that was the sixth. So it was the Pack
minus six was the other one?
Speaker 2 (45:46):
Oh, okay, okay.
Speaker 1 (45:48):
Underdog parlay was Saints lost, Panthers one Detroit that don't
know yet, Seahawks who were plus one and a half
at the time they won Bears. Tomorrow Night survivor was
Packers barely got by. Okay, A lot of questions, obviously,
(46:10):
we got to talk about uh next week. Mike Vrabel,
I think he's a five and a half point favorite, No.
Six and a half point favorite on the road at
New England, I mean at Tennessee rematch game. I mean,
what do we do here? What's our plan? How do
how like, you know, how do we not bet Mike Vrabel?
(46:35):
How do we not bet Tennessee. This is a question
from Jags by the way, j A g Z.
Speaker 2 (46:43):
That's fair, honestly, if excuse to tell the number. It's
just like, don't we have to bet New England. Just
there's no reason for us to trust Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (46:51):
There's none. They're not good enough.
Speaker 2 (46:53):
That's fair. Like again, this is just gonna be sick
to the stomach because guess the number is inflated, but
is it? This is the tennis team is so poor,
the coach and their offense looks so lost unless they
run out of two minute drolls. So that's fair if
you want to grab that line early.
Speaker 1 (47:08):
Tampa Bay is a I just want to get this
out of the way because we just talked about it.
Tampa Bay is a five and a half point underdog
at Detroit next week. It's a Monday night game, part
of the Monday Night doubleheader.
Speaker 2 (47:24):
I don't have to deal with it because I remember,
I think it might have been two years ago. Baker
was like a nine and a half point dog against
his Detroit team in the regular season, and he went
in there and he beat him, and it was like incredible.
That was when he had gywin and Mike Evans as
the receivers, not these no name guys, and you know,
it's how long can this keep going? So I don't
(47:46):
know what to do. I kind of want to take Detroit,
and I assume that they get smoked tonight and they
take it all out on this Bucks team, so I
don't have to deal with it. My early incline is
to take Detroit. That's a good Detroit number.
Speaker 1 (48:00):
By the way, Alison Norris was the one who was
asking about Baker MVP, like, of course his odds will
you have to expect who else at this point could
be leading or have the shortest odds for MVP.
Speaker 2 (48:15):
Yeah, I blew that one. Like there. He was eleven
to one when we came on Sunday, and I put
it in my notes last week to say something totally
blanked on it. And by the time we did Tuesday show,
he's already down to eight to one. Yeah, apparently that
was still good enough, because, like you said, I think
he's gonna be the favorite now. The only person I
could see still being the guy back up there would
(48:36):
be Josh Allen if he wins obviously tomorrow or if
Golf wins tonight, I could see him if he has
a big game Tonay against the Chiefs being up top there.
Speaker 1 (48:44):
Oh that's interesting. All right, that's really interesting Cleveland. As
you said, it's now at two and a half, two
and a half point favorites over Miami.
Speaker 2 (48:55):
This is just a hard rock I should say that
for everyone.
Speaker 1 (48:57):
I see it at two elsewhere. Yeah, yeah, but definitely
moving in that direction. What do we think of Jacksonville
as a three point home underdog against the Los Angeles Rams.
Speaker 2 (49:10):
I mean, obviously you know what to think. It's the
professional side the Jags, But I don't know.
Speaker 1 (49:17):
Light to day. We're gonna walk away from all this.
Jacksonville never bet him again?
Speaker 2 (49:23):
Right? We should?
Speaker 1 (49:24):
Here is we're gonna bet. We're gonna bet the Jacks.
Speaker 2 (49:28):
Yeah, I'll be patient though, maybe maybe give us the hook.
Maybe we get that three and a half. But I
do not think the Rams are three points better by
the way.
Speaker 1 (49:36):
That game.
Speaker 2 (49:37):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (49:37):
That game is overseas. That is not a game in Jacksonville.
Speaker 2 (49:41):
Back in England again, another England game. How many of
these we got? NFL?
Speaker 1 (49:44):
Oh my god, listen, we're expanding. It's a global it's
a global business.
Speaker 2 (49:49):
Well, Jags, they dominate England. So that's even more reason
to like the Jacks.
Speaker 1 (49:53):
They're basically the London j Jaguars. Yeah, who else are
we looking at right now?
Speaker 2 (50:02):
I mean we haven't talked much about Philly, the ship
show that is Philly right now. Minnesota is plus two
and a half Carson Wentz. I mean this, this would
be rock bottom for a lot of Eagles fans. Of
course it wins smokes us, but that's an intriguing number honestly,
just because Quinny and Mitchell might be out, Carter might
(50:23):
be out. Those are easily the two best defenders on
the Eagles defense. Yea, and without them in the secondary
against Addison Jefferson, that could be a real problem for
that Eagles team. Uh, Chargers, I know we talked about
staying away from it. It's just another pro line. They're
minus one against this Colts team at home. Once again,
be patient, but I know everyone I'm sick to it.
(50:44):
I don't want to I didn't want to have to
bet the Chargers, but this is this is a Chargers line, honestly,
So that's another one that jumps out where I'm hoping
I could be patient. Public comes into the Colts and
I get Chargers out like a nice dog number. Yeah, interesting,
and that one popped out and last one that I
really just jumped out to me just because it's interesting.
(51:06):
That's where they opened it. The Giants were plus seven
and a half against Denver. Yeah, so that's Denver playing
international coming home to a home game. Well that's nice,
but they're playing against arrested Giants team that I think
a mobile quarterback you can't see with fields today, but
I think that type of style can give a type
of defense like Denver real problems. So interesting. The books
(51:28):
are still giving you the hook at seven and a
half a year at hard Rock, so that's just a
number I'll grab early in case professional money does comes in.
The Giants have bet this under the seven, so you
saw it today. The Denver closed all that books at
six and a half today, so yeah, you know it's
interesting that it books open that to get Giants money
because they know how much Denver money will come in
by the public.
Speaker 1 (51:48):
We're getting a lot of questions right now, and we
talked about this right before we came on air. The
line on the Bears game has moved from Washington minus
four and a half to Washington minus five and a half.
We didn't get a chance to really dig in on
why that's happening. It's been happening as we've been on
the air. Really, I'm not understanding the move. I don't
(52:09):
know of any injuries that have been reported in the
last hour or so. In fact, the Bears were going
into the game really healthy, and we know that Diebo
might be out. We know Terry McLaurin is out. What
do you make of the move?
Speaker 2 (52:23):
It asked to be injured and there's something we're not
I know that you guys now announced so much players
that are out. So yeah, like we said, I couldn't
believe when we logged on here, we're looking at early
lines and the number was up to five and a half.
So I'm just thankful we to put in a contest
because I would be hurting right now.
Speaker 1 (52:38):
Really really thankful we didn't put it in the contest
because I'm really glad we have the chiefs. Oh, they're
saying the Bears left tackle is ruled out, but I
don't that doesn't actually make sense. That can't be right,
because the Bears announced that left tackle Braxton Jones was
not going to be starting, and it was going to
be a guy who had been getting a lot of
(53:01):
snaps and have been playing on the offensive line, and
it was this dude who Brax and Jones barely beat
out in training camp, So that can't be the reason
unless all of a sudden that guy is out too.
But then Braxton Jones is playing who's been the starting
left tackle, So I'm not sure that makes any sense.
So we're not really getting good until it, you know,
this time of night on Sunday. As to why that
(53:22):
line is moving yet, we.
Speaker 2 (53:23):
Would say in all week though, that clearly the professional
side is the commander's side, so just clearly be careful.
Speaker 1 (53:28):
It's clearly a professional side, because it had all week
to move from four and a half with all the
news about Washington's health and all the news about the
Bears who are coming back, and instead has moved in
the opposite direction. So something's going on. Finally, just to
remind people, we're three and one heading into Sunday night.
We got Kansas City minus one and a half tonight.
(53:52):
The line is currently two and a half. We've been
liking it all week at one and a half, at two,
even at two and a half, and.
Speaker 2 (53:58):
If you didn't bet it. If Detroit drives the field
here in scores, take the Chiefs live, you'll get a
great number exactly.
Speaker 1 (54:06):
We won with the Raiders minus four and a half.
We won with who else to the Steelers minus four
and a half and the Panthers plus three and a half.
We lost with the Colts minus six and a half.
This has been Sharper Square presented by hard Rock Bet,
part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back
with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday. To go over
(54:27):
the entire NFL slate, watch or listen on YouTube at
Sharper Square like this video, Subscribe to the channel. Also
downloads from Spotify, Apple Pod wherever you get your pods.
Rate review, subscribe us five stars say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love,
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention very true. Today, I am Chadmullman.
I am joined by my co host, my companion Mike Cambadre,
(00:22):
my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Hello, So I'm in Chad. How are we doing? Brother man?
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Oh Man? I feel like we're awesome because we're gonna
break down the day and I think we feel pretty
good about where we landed three and one on the day.
We got the Chiefs minus one and a half. Later
tonight that line is steaming up to three in some spots,
(00:54):
so we feel pretty good about the closing line value
we got there. Our picks from today the winners the
Panthers plus three and a half, the Steelers minus four
and a half, the Raiders minus four and a half.
They made it a little bit of a sweat, and
then we had the Colts minus six and a half,
which we lost. Our last ones out today where the
(01:18):
Saints plus three and a half and the Chargers minus
four and a half. So as always, we are exactly
where we would be no matter what decisions we had made,
because we would have replaced the Colts with the Saints
or the Chargers. We're going to get to all of
our early leans. We're going to get to an entire
(01:40):
review of all of our picks. We're going to get
to our live comments from the chat. One thing I
do want to say. The most remarkable stat I heard today, Simon,
are you ready?
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (01:55):
The New York Jets had minus ten total passing yards
accounting for all the sacks and lost yardage on passing
downs today. That is the lowest in I think twenty
seven years in the NFL. Justin Fields was sacked nine times.
(02:19):
He had nine completions in a game the Jets lost
thirteen to eleven. We didn't bet it. We talked all
week how we leaned Jets plus seven and a half,
but we didn't really have the guts to do it,
and to ask anyone listening or watching to do it
as far as putting it in the contest. But they
(02:40):
are just thinking and finding new ways to look incompetent
and lose games. I don't know if you watched any
of that game, you know came on as we were
doing our show this morning. But wow, wow, I just
I don't even feel bad for him because it's so incompetent.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Yeah, I bet it, and I got really lucky. You
had the Denver money line right the round robin and uh,
never in a million year should they have won that
game Denver. Yeah, Aaron Glenn experiment it might be over
on that flight back. He looks totally incompetent, and yeah,
just a disaster right now for the Jets and the organization.
(03:19):
And you're right, like we we talked about that. It
was just simply playing the number ad zero faith in
that Jets team, and Denver did everything they could to
keep the Jets in that game. So yeah, that was
a game. I'm I'm glad it was in England. That's
the perfect game for yes, type that type of game.
So yeah, the the Jets get the cover. Should have
won in a million different ways. And I can't believe
(03:40):
they're what owns six now?
Speaker 1 (03:42):
So win six Dallas at Carolina Carolina plus three and
a half. Look, kudos to you. On Tuesday, I was noncommittal.
You were all in. You wanted to make this, Simon says.
I came around, I saw the beat in the play.
(04:02):
We've now cashed a couple of tickets on the Panthers.
Good for us. Like, the game was kind of everything
we thought it would be in the first half, right,
like whether it was not a factor, it was just
pure offense. The defense was terrible. Nobody could stop anybody.
Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. Just
(04:23):
a blast to watch this game because I honestly never
felt like we were out of it. I felt like,
no matter what happened, we were going to be able
to keep this game close and have a little bit
of a sweat and not feel like it was a
dead bet at any point.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Yeah, and Dak still playing out of his mind, gave
us a scare there. But brag Seong obviously played really well.
But the Rico Dow thing, it's there's no model, there's
nothing that can predict there. That's like totally fluke of fluke.
I think he's a first play in NFL history to
have twenty yards from scrimmage up back to back games
that was undrafted. It's like pretty legendary. Uh. Yeah, that's
(04:58):
again not something we accounted ford. We did to account
for it just being an absolutely shoot out. Two terrible defenses,
and uh yeah, surprisingly Carolina's defense got to stop playing
needed to Like, yes, bray Seung went three and out,
they punted it to deck and they held him and
they got the ball back, and yeah, the obviously the
rest is history. They'd rather feel got that field goal.
And it's it sounds stupid because the sample sizes so small,
(05:21):
but there's real evidence and it keeps happening. You saw
a bray Seong plays better at home, Like yeah, yeah,
for sure, whatever it is, I don't know, there's there's
nothing we can really factor into it. But he just
looked more comfortable even when they're they're losing. He kept
getting the ball back. He just kept driving down the field.
And like we said, Ricadal the run game, Uh yeah,
(05:43):
they got a real decision of making true behobble. It
comes back because he's he's talented, but this is this
is insane, like like again flashing the pan, who knows,
but back to back games two hundred yards from scrimmage,
just as fluky as that could be, it's not flucky
if he does it back to back.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Well, look, he We've got a segment later in the
show where I want to break down Rico dow Dell
because he's been so awesome the past two weeks, one
hundred and eighty three rushing yards today. He also led
the team in receiving. I think it was four catches
for fifty six yards. And we're gonna go deeper on
(06:20):
his success and what that how it sort of is
indicative of some things that the Panthers have been doing.
This is what I loved about this game. Eight straight
drives without a punt. The Cowboys had thirty one rushing yards.
I don't know if you noticed, but in the past
twenty four hours, like all the buzz and the alerts
(06:43):
you get at ESPN for various teams and the headlines,
should the Cowboys start thinking about re signing Javonte Williams
now because he's on a one year deal and he's
gonna be a free agent and he's been so amazing.
Thirty one yards of rushing today for the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
They couldn't stick them block though. Again that's why this
whole acting is crazy. I can't get around good he's playing.
Whether they have I think they showed the stat it's
like the most guys through five games on their offensive line.
I've pretty much played and start for them since nineteen seventy.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
So that's that's what's crazy, and that's why we like
the game. Like it's one of the reasons we like
the game. We thought the Panthers were getting healthier, we
like you know, and we like the Panthers defense. I
think it's been improving. There's metrics to show that it
has been getting better. Again, doesn't mean we're going to
bet the Panthers by the way plus one and a
half on the road next week against the New York Jets.
(07:42):
It's astounding how the NFL does this right, like puts
us in this position where we want to go now
back a team on the road in a terrible spot
that we've now won two weeks in a row with
or I just.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Told you the deal with Bryce Yeng.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
I know we don't, but that's what I'm saying, Like,
that's how they set it up up, Like they are
playing with our minds.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
No, they're playing with there, that's the public's minds they're
playing with. We're sharp. We're sharp, chab, we won't get
sucked in.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
We are very sharp.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
So we'll talk about I mean, no rush to go
get that Jets number though I was gonna say.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Like, in twenty five minutes, are you telling me we're
going to be answering questions about what we'd be betting the
Jets at minus one and a half, Carolina outgained them
by one hundred and twenty yards, had twelve More's first downs.
It shouldn't have been It shouldn't even have been that close.
Like they really were just a much much better team
than the Cowboys, And anytime the Cowboys started to run
(08:38):
away with it or had a chance to, Bryce Young
found a way to brice it up. The Bryce is right.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
I just thought, Bryce, that was again big time through
is them McMillan getting more comfortable. I think it was
his first game the touchdown. He had two touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
Yeah, yeah, he also had a babble that led to
a Bryce Young pick. Young was a baller fourth and two.
They go for it. Love this team, Love them at home.
We're going to talk a little bit more about Rico
later Cleveland. At Pittsburgh, we had the Steelers minus four
and a half. Got a ton of closing line value
(09:16):
because this thing closed at six and a half. We
had we'd started betting the Steelers early in the week
I don't know about you. I want to get your
take here. I kind of got the sense that the
Steelers were going to be very conservative because they knew
the Browns offense was going to struggle. It was nine
to three at half.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
A little bit. Honestly, I think it's just the Steelers offense,
like Rogers, He's not gonna he's gonna always take what
the defense the defense gives them, and he's gonna wait
for him make a mistake. And that's what it felt like.
He missed a couple of throws in that first half,
like you said, and it was really boring and he
was patient. Yeah, but once him and Deca kind of
got into a groove, it's that's the key for them.
(09:59):
Like it's just such a big hit weapon. Anytime touched
to the ball, I could take it the whole way.
So yeah, that was honestly went exactly as we talked
about how it was gonna go this. This They're putting
this rookie in a brutal situation, a brutal spot maybe
would have been a little differently. Obviously, if it's Joe Flacco,
like I thought, he would be able to handle that
travel short rest week better than a rookie, and you
(10:22):
saw it like that, like shows nine to nothing first half.
I don't know about you, but I was like, there's
no scenario. Even when they got the field goal was
nine three, It's like, there's still no scenario. I think
they're gonna come back. So yeah, that's uh, that was
pretty insane.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Honestly, that was the you know, before we came out
of the air, I felt like we didn't have a
ton of anxiety in that early window. You know, the
Panthers was a sweat, but the Panthers, I also felt
like the whole time they were in the game, I
never felt like we needed a miracle from the Panthers
(11:00):
to cover and the Steelers they were just in control
the whole time. I got a theory. I'm not saying, like,
oh my god, the Steelers are going to run away
with the division, but you just said something that I
was thinking about earlier today. Mike Tomlin loves to play conservative, right.
(11:22):
He just wants his quarterbacks to not screw it up
because no, he knows his defense in certain situations is
going to be able to make the plays. And today
they were like when they were fully healthy. Alex Highsmith
was all over the field. They had a really good game,
right Aaron Rodgers twenty one to twenty eight, couple hundred yards,
(11:42):
you know, totally perfectly fine game, didn't throw it away.
When's the last time Mike Tomlin had a quarterback that
he could rely on to really not make the stupid
mistakes that would have to make his defense be playmakers,
not just normal defensive play.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, like I'm saying there, he's boring. Like you just said,
it's it's working for him. Yeah, but I think we're
all on the same board where it's like it's not
gonna work. It can't keep working all year. So like
it's working like it did last year for them early
in the year. It's gonna be interesting how teams adjust
to this what they're doing with Rogers because, like I
just said, he's not pushed on the ball downfield and
it's working so well.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Look, their best drive, their best drive after you know,
they had been struggling offensively. They got a fourth and four,
they punted the ball, there was a roughing the kicker,
the punter, They get the first down. The rest of
that drive is John Newsmith a ten yard run. Jalen
Warren an eleven yard run, Jalen Warren a ten yard run,
(12:47):
a couple of non plays, Aaron Rodgers a twelve yeard
touchdown pass Like that was sort of the classic Steelers playbook.
Take advantage of penalty, drive down the field with conservative play,
run the ball, don't make mistakes. Keep Dylan Gabriel throwing
it fifty two times for three yards in attempt. Did
(13:10):
you know that? Three yards in attempt? I mean, that's
it's gonna be interest.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Pittsburgh defense looked much healthier obviously in this game after
the five weeks, so it gonna be interesting what they're
gonna be like going forward.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
It's also gonna be interesting with the Browns. They're they're
kind of an unbetable offense, accept in the most obvious situations,
which is when they are at home.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
Is big underdogs just at home though, like at home
against the bad team again, They're they're gonna be an
interesting team going forward because, like you said, it's anytime
we bet them, it's it's one hundred percent faith in
the defense, zero faith in the quarterback.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
Well, guess what we get to do this week? Talk
about Cleveland is a one and a half point home
favorite against the Miami.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Dolphins already two and a half.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
It's already up to two and a half. Yeah, wow,
well we're not going to talk about that. Then Arizona
at Indie. This was our lone loss of the day
so far.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
Look like.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Whether whether we put Arizona and Indie in or the
Chargers in Miami when we like the Chargers, or the
Saints and the Patriots where you and I just couldn't agree, like,
or the Jags and the Seahawks where you and I
weren't on the same page, Like there was no scenario here.
We weren't going to lose this game.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
Yeah, honestly, just tough beat Perssette just played out of
his mind and expected there there's to be some flicky players.
But like we joked about, like when he's hid in
thirty and eighteens and third and fifteen's and there's this
guy streaking wide open. I think before the game, like
the number one or number two corner of the Colt's
got concussion and warm ups and anthey Richards had hurt
(14:47):
himself in warm ups.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
Like there he broke his orbital bone in warm ups.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Yeah, so yeah, bizarre start of the game, you know,
really felt like if Daniel Jones had his ace game,
they probably would have rolled and blown him out. But
he just didn't play well for the start of the game,
missed a couple of throws, threw a really bad pick,
and Prissette just made big time throws, Like you just
(15:13):
didn't expect that there as an offense, and uh, yeah,
it's tough you bet these big chalk favorites like that perfect. Yeah,
you just you can't really have the mistakes and you
also you can't have the other team always just in
a weird number. Right. There was either they were up
by three or the game was tied, and at no
point it was like, okay, we need kind of a
(15:34):
miracle here to cover a six and a half and yeah,
we just didn't bounce our way in that game. So fortunate,
Like it's the one game that honestly going into when
we were picking through the games, it's like, oh, this
one feels honestly easy. Was getting three points of value
on it and uh, just a bad number. We got
suckered into it.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
Although one of the things that we thought the Colts,
if we've been betting the close this year, it's been
because of Jonathan Taylor like we talked about how good
their offensive line is, how big they are. Jonathan Taylor
once again on one of their scoring drives early in
the game, carried it five times for fifty three yards,
(16:11):
including a fourteen yarder and a thirty yarder. We talked
about earlier in the week how this guy has more
ten yard rushing plays than anybody in the league. Also,
they had a great stat in the game. He's one
of five players to average ninety more than ninety yards
(16:33):
per game to start his career, I think in his
first five years or something like that. How amazing is
that it's like him, Eric Dickerson, Jim Brown, Walter Payton, like,
you know, just Hall of famers and Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Yeah, his draft class. I don't even think he was
the first running back take and I think the Chiefs
a free Dame guy took another guy, ce H I
forgot his name.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
Oh oh oh yeah, Clyde Humphy, Clyde Hilaire, right, yes,
that guy from Els.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
As much shit as I like giving the Colts GM
that was That was a nice draft pick.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
All right, we got to talk about Tennessee at Las Vegas.
This was Chad's choice. I made the call this morning
that we're going to put this one in and listen,
Geno Smith is really bad. Yeah, Which do you think
(17:35):
was the most incompetent play of Genios because he had
a couple back to back. Was it when he was
pressured and threw the ball inside the Titans red zone
directly to Cody Barton when they were up seventeen to
three and basically could have put the game away. Or
(17:55):
was it when he tried to slide I think in
the next series and didn't slide and instead banged his
knee and came limping off the field.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
I mean, they're all terrible. My favorite thing was they
kept putting up his stats and it was like twenty
to three or seventeen to three, like you said, and
he had like forty six yards passing he did. Well, look,
that's just a wreck offense.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Right. When we talked about this game, my breakdown of
it was, just give it to Ashton Genty. Give it
to Ashton Genty. Just run the ball, like Tennessee is
not very good at stopping the run. Take it out
of Gino's hands. It really felt for a little while
like Chip Kelly had totally listened to this podcast and
(18:37):
was channeling everything that you and I had talked about
during the week. At one point, until midway through the
fourth quarter, Gino Smith had not thrown a ball more
than fifteen yards downfield. Then he had one play where
he threw it more than fifteen yards downfield converted a
first down. The announcers all of a sudden, they're like,
(18:58):
he's playing great, He's so efficient, They're doing such a
good job. He's understanding that his mistakes are coming when
he's dropping back and taking too much time, and Chip
Kelly understands that it's the mistakes that come when he's
trying to get receivers open downfield. Make the quick throw,
don't make it. The decision for Gino Literally the next
(19:18):
play is when he's rushed, just dumps it into Cody
Barton's arms like he's the only thing that would have
kept that from winning that game. It's great.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
You know Raiders defense did step up. I think you
know a bunch of times they needed big time sacks
or big time plays. Overall, Yes, they gave a lot
of problems with cam Warden. That trend about those quarterbacks.
You know that cam Wardon's going to join it of
having these insane comebacks as a rookie and then losing
by double digits. It held true. They lost by ten
in this game, So yeah, that was a unique spot
(19:51):
to back a Raiders team that I don't know about you,
but it feels like the Jacks from last week, like
we got away with one here totally. I don't know
if I feel like back them at all, no matter
what their number is the next week.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
I don't ever want to bet the Raiders again. I
don't want to. I don't want to, Like there are
teams that I just want to take up the board
that I feel like.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
You know, get right. He's just not right yet, like
you said, And that's why I don't want to bet him.
It's just I can't trust him.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
The Raiders and the Jacks, I don't want to bet
either of them any more. I feel like we got
our money, you know, we earned it. We by the
way we did the right thing and fading the Titans.
You know, it's always been scary for us to fade
a team that is always, you know, is such a
huge underdog, and yet we did the right thing. The
Raiders did try to give it away right, Like.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
Oh my god, I thought for sure we were getting
back door at the end.
Speaker 1 (20:36):
I mean like that back door for anybody who wasn't
watching it. And the only reason you would watch it
is because you had money on this game, even though
it was like one of three games. So if you
can do a triple box through multiview, you might have
had it on. It was literally the corner TV game,
like it was on in the corner of my television.
And of the game, it's fourth and fifteen from the
(20:58):
Titans two yard line and the Raiders don't defend the
middle of the field and the Titans were to throw
a little dump off and the guy gets the first down,
and then the very next play they throw a long
out to Van Jefferson. All of a sudden they're at
the fifty yard line, like with a minute left. I'm like,
are you are you fucking kidding me that we're going
(21:19):
to give up this game? And then cam Wore fumbles
the ball and they recover and it's over it. But
that one had me standing. It had me standing in
front of the television.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Yeah, and just I don't know the analytics stuff, like
Pikaro had the ball at the thirty sixth of Tennessee.
I don't get why not kick the field goal? There?
Go up right, go bat another three? Now you're up,
you know whatever. That would have been sixteen or thirteen
whatever it was. And just I was like, oh my god,
I mean chedd are really gonna get this back door here?
But yeah, in the end, it worked out.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
It worked out for us. All right, let's do a
quick quick word from our friends at hard Rocks. I
want to catch up on some other games that we
didn't get into the contest. Today's show is brought to
you by our new presenting sponsor, hard Rod Bet. Week
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All right, look. One of the most controversial games that
we talked about this week was New England at New
(23:32):
Orleans at three and a half. We left it out
to save our marriage, frankly, and Drake May was great.
He was just great. And Vrabel coached him up. And
what did you see in that game? Did the Saints
feel like the team that you thought they were going
to be? Where the paths better than you expected? Give
me your take on that game.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Yeah, I mean, honestly, the Saints fell like the right side.
You needed Drake May to do something that I honestly
didn't think he was going to do, which is play
out of his mind. And once he did in that
first half, he didn't do shit the second half.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:05):
Two huge throws in the second half, honestly, I'll give
him credit for that were like third and eleven and
a third and seven that were really big time throws.
But that first half he was making these plays that
were just like, dude, you there's there's no way this
kid can make these plays like out of the world,
moving in the pocket, just bombing a downfield. It would
(24:25):
either be perfectly underthrown or perfectly timed on the receiver's part,
where like the defenders would just miss. It could just
be the same. Secondary was just terrible at you know,
a lot of stuff they were doing, but tons of
credit to Drake may Like that. That Bills game again,
that felt like a very will win. He did some
nice things with this Saints game. This was Drake may Like,
this is the type of game that a top five,
(24:48):
top ten quarterback wins. And again I don't think he
is that. So I was like, there's no way he's
gonna be to live up to the next game, and
he did. Like that first half. You know, I think
they got the two point of so they scored twenty
two points in the first half. Yeah, only scored three
in the second, and that was the kind of Verabel
half where it was like, Bendon, don't break defense, let
(25:11):
Rattler make a mistake, and he shockingly didn't. It was
a receiver that fumbled the ball and just sucked all
the momentum out of the Saints. So Saints as well.
I think they only scored three points. I think it
was in the fourth quarter or so. Yeah, two teams out. Again,
they're not that different. I know the public reception is
they're very different. But yeah, respect to Drake may Like,
that was to me the most impressive half I've seen
(25:32):
him play as a professional, like his moving in the
pocket when he ran the ball outside the pocket, all
of it very impressive. So yeah, good read by you.
I'll give you credit on a bunch of things. Chad,
you got that right. And Task. I love to task
so much as it way, Yeah, and you gave it
to me. Like early on, I was like, all right,
fucking what is Chat Now, I'll check it out, I guess,
(25:53):
And yeah it's great, so good, right, it's so good.
They got the accidents right. And like when I was
really young, the most kind of country thing I would
do is go to the quarries and swim in the quarries. Yeah,
and they do it a lot on the show, like
all of it. Like yeah, so yeah, tons of props
to Chat in Indiana Hoosiers. It's just, oh my god,
it's all coming up, Chat dude.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
Yesterday I watched that game and I feel like I
know what it's like for a second to root for
a team that knows what it's doing, that isn't winning miraculously,
that isn't surprising me when they win. I'm texting a
buddy of mine who uh went to ut and I've
(26:37):
been just making fun of them all season for how
we're a football school and you know it's sad for
ut but they'll make it back. And yesterday I texted h,
I'm like, dude, big win yesterday. I totally remember those
days when we would have those big wins that we
weren't expected to win on how good it feels like
I'm rooting for you guys because Indiana their football power.
(27:00):
They're faster than they were last year, They're more talented, they.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Were no makes. That's your coach, dude. College football is
crazy what the coach does.
Speaker 1 (27:07):
He is such a good coach.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
He is looking at your recruits. It's insane what he
gets out of these kids.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
But if he stays, that team is just going to
get better and better. Better people are going to want
to play for them. The nil see.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
I got a client who is a penn State alumni
and he was just joking in our group text they're
just going to fly him an airplane with cash in it.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
Well, listen, my biggest fear right now is that Penny
State is going to go get Chris Signetti, who's got
Pennsylvania roots, and they're going to go get Malik Washington
from Maryland and so basically, the only two college football
teams I care about are then going to be starting over.
That's it. Like yesterday on multi view, I had Maryland
and I had Indiana, and like they're both going to
(27:49):
be gone next year. But Drake May, he'll be Drake May.
Just to put a period on that. To your point
about how good he was. He was five for five
with two touchdowns to start the game, perfect passer rating
in the first half eleven to thirteen, four three touchdowns,
including a great throw to boot A for twenty nine
(28:11):
years in a touchdown with thirty one seconds left. You're right,
the Saints kind of kept it exciting. Vrabel all of
a sudden didn't seem like the guy who we always
kind of under cover in the second half because he
was just trying to bleed that clock and not let
his team give it back to the Saints.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
But you don't want to turn over, and that's why
I think he coached the right where he was like
someone was gonna blink, Someone's going to make the dumb play,
and uh yeah, just a great punch out by the
defender for New England right in midfield and totally flipped
flipped the game because the momentum had just shifted. Like
you said, the New England wasn't doing anything. The moment
had to shift the Saints and we talked about coming
to the year of Vrabel is going to account for
(28:46):
two or three wins you might get to three or
four of us or like it feels like he already
has two wins this year that are verbel wins.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
We set the line of two and a half and
we bet the over cow many wins he would be
responsible for Chargers at Miami minus four and a half.
Look good for us that we cut this one out right,
like we were clearly thinking more clearly when we took
this one out, even if we replaced it with the Chiefs.
It's kind of the second time that we got got
by the Chargers in the past couple of weeks. And
(29:15):
you nailed this because you said on the show, if
this game is under ten with half a quarter left,
our bet is dead, and dude, like the Chargers were
up twenty six thirteen and then basically just gave the
game away. What the actual freak, Why can't justin Herbert
(29:37):
close teams out. It's kind of it's getting ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Well, respect him because he did actually come back and
win the game, which I'm not gonna lie. I thought,
like what you thought? I thought they were dead, Like
I couldn't believe they'd given up that lead. This is
definitely my biggest loss to day. Like I had a
bunch of adjusted lines bet two on this Chargers team
and obviously feeling pretty good. Like Chet said, they're up thirteen,
just fell apart defensively. Tough loss, and uh yeah, that
(30:03):
was brutal, Like you saw that number go from I
think it opened five to five and a half and
right before kick it was three to three and a
half in a lot of books. So some really smart
money came into that charge. Again. That Miami side that
they did, well, that was a good read by them.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
It was.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
It was a the classic, you know, Miami hot in
the sun team is worn out in the second half,
and like you said, they they basically scored a touchdown
and it's instant three and out by Chargers and their
defense team to catch your breath back on the field,
right down the field another touchdown and uh yeah, big
big deal to come back and win that game for
the Chargers because like we just said, they're sliding right now.
(30:40):
So you lose that game to a bad Miami team,
it's just don't even think about the division. You're thinking,
just can you get lucky heading forward and get a
wild card? So huge, huge win for the Chargers.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
We'll have more on the Chargers and shame, shame, shame
in a couple of minutes. One more game Seattle at Jacksonville. Really,
I just want to point out that Trevor Lawrence is trash.
That's basically it. Like, I'm kind of sick to my
stomach that I never pulled the trigger on Seattle. I
was nervous about the flipping and flopping and flipping and flopping,
(31:13):
and then I passed because of all the injuries to
their secondary. But if I'm sick to my stomach about
Trevor Lawrence, Liam cohane has to be like, can I
please get out of this contract? Do you agree with
me or disagree that Trevor Lawrence is at this point
an impediment for this Jacksonville Draguars team.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
I don't know that thing because there's like there's also
moments where he'll make throws. We're just like this, this
guy has an insane amount of talent.
Speaker 1 (31:40):
Insane talent, but I just don't think, like I know, he's.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Also head coach. I hate him. He drives me crazy.
But now they're stuck. Like it's just it's like Miami
with Tua. It's like, what are you going to do?
You didn't even get hurt or just have a toll
tank of a season, get a different quarterback just because
how many times kind of Baker Sam Donald's situation happen.
These things just don't happen. Usually turned into what Ginos
(32:04):
Smith has turned into. So they're in a tough spot
with Trevor. It's like, we see the potential. You're right,
it's he's hindering that team. That defense played well enough
to win today. Jackson Smith and Jigba in our lost tapes,
I gave him out to lead the league of thirty
five to one, and I never predicted that he would
actually be in the running to lead the league in receptions.
(32:26):
With Sam Donald, My god, is their chemistry out of
this world right now? They just I think you have
thirty points of fantasy football today. Just he's out of control.
How good he is, and he felt like he won
that game, like he was just the difference. You know,
Brian Tups junior try to match it. Had an insane
touchdown call back on a really bad penalty. And yeah,
(32:46):
they're just Seattle. This is an interesting team. Like all
the trends for them on the road, They're just a
different team on the road for some reason. They're just
a covering machine.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Yeah, I'm going to want to talk about Seattle. It's
an interesting line for them coming up next week. What
do you think is round with the Packers right now?
That offense, I thought they would destroy the Bengals. The
Bengals have been a terrible defense all year. The Packers
should have run the ball fifty times and gained eight
hundred yards and scored seventy two points against this Bengals
(33:17):
rush defense, and they can never pull away. They like
the Bengals stuck around. The Packers could not get any
offensive flow. They don't look very good.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
Now I'm part of the problem. I think. I just
like a lot of people have overrated them based off
the one game. And it happens in football. We see
a team play potentially their best game of the season
Week one against a really talented team that we had
the higher expectations for, and yeah, they couldn't. Like they
(33:50):
feel like they played with their food in a lot
of ways with this game, Like they could have pulled
away and they could have made bigger plays, and they
just do enough to win. They're an interesting team. Like
even Golden him getting more comfortable that offense, I see
that being a huge lift to that offense. Like if
you can have a reason for those two safeties to
stay up high, that could change everything, because you see,
(34:11):
their best weapon is Josh Jacobs, like his the run
game and the way he runs so violently and so hard.
It feels like when he's going, that's that's when the
offense is going. And you know Jordan Love, when he
uses his legs, it looks right and he is good.
But like you said, they just they don't have that
killer instinct, that killer mentality, and they let teams hang
around and they easily could have lost that game, Like
(34:32):
there was an opening there for a split second, and
now Jordan Love stepped up made some big throws and
uh yeah, that's a team. I think all of us
just all overrated because of Week one, And I still
think they're really talented team. I just don't think they're
that highest level super Bowl favorite juggernaut team that we
all were like, oh my god, this defense with Parsons
(34:54):
is going to be incredible. And now we're after week six,
I think all of us are just like, Okay, they're
in mid tier defense. They're not the cream of the
crop like Seattle.
Speaker 1 (35:04):
They're actually not even forcing the takeaways they did this year.
They're actually less explosive on defense and more vulnerable. They're
giving up more yards. They're looking like they don't really
know how to put teams away, like you said, offensively
or defensively. Another interesting team to watch because like you
want to bet him so bad, Like I know, we
(35:25):
both took a taste. You had the Packers outline minus six.
What a squeaky that turned out to be. But boy,
I was just hoping for a push there and then
lost all all hope at the end.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
And Joe Flacco give them props Joe Flacco for coming
in flying commercial. Man look good, Man look good. So
I don't know, it's gonna be interesting handicapping this Bengals
team going forward, because he was a difference in this game.
Like you saw Chase have confidence, you saw Higgins have
more confidence. That's that was something very noticeable in that game.
(36:01):
So yeah, They're gonna be interesting going forward.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
Since it's the Bengals. I'm surprised they even flew them.
I thought they'd just figure a horse and buggy or something.
All right, let's do shame shame, shame, shame, shame on you.
Shame shame, shame on the Chargers defense. I'd love to
(36:23):
blame their old line, I really would, which gave Justin
Herbert no no help at the end of the game.
But in the fourth quarter, the Chargers were up twenty
six to thirteen. Their defense then allowed a nine play
sixty nine yard drive and a thirteen play eighty two
(36:44):
yard drive to take the lead. In those two drives,
the Dolphins only had three third downs, so we're talking
about twenty two plays. All of them were first or
second down except for three. All of those three downs,
all three of them, we're third and short. The defense
could not come close to getting off the field, Like,
(37:05):
was it all of a sudden. They couldn't scheme was it?
Like you said, it's the end of the game, it's
the heat. I don't know. Give me your take, because
this team keeps finding ways to give away opportunities.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
I just I mean, it is injuries, but I just
think it's it's the Miami Sun. Like you get down there,
it's late in the game, and they just didn't have
their legs. Like I said, you give up that long
touchdown drive and then you're right back out there after
three plays. It just the Chargers going through and out
there killed him. So I'm with you on that one.
My shame is pretty much the same thing. My shame
is this Colts defense, same shame we're set through for
(37:49):
I believe three hundred yards or three hundred and twenty
yards against them. The craziest thing was him on third downs.
He was nine or fourteen on third downs against this
Colts defense. And it's like, okay, if it was third
and two and third and four's short field short, you know,
short yardage, it happens. But these were like third and tens,
thirty and fifteens, thirty and eighteens that they were giving
(38:09):
up wide open. Just really lazy's own defense. Just that
makes sense. Like Marvion Harris went out very early in
that game. They don't want to play man and man
with receivers after a team's number one's out. Just a
bizarre game planned by this Colts team. And again they're
so lucky, they're offensive so talent that you know, Daniel
Jones did have a great day, but like you said,
(38:30):
Jonathan Taylor averaging almost six yards per carry, he's just
an absolute game changer for this Colts team. So yeah,
for me, the shame it's got to be that Colts
defense just a total no show for us today.
Speaker 1 (38:41):
Yeah, I was actually going to go with the Colts
defense and then decided I was just angrier at the
Chargers because we had a good chance. Like we never
really had a chance to cover with the Colts, and
we did have a chance to cover.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
Because their defense. So like you can put up thirty one,
you're telling me that defense can't hold for set to
twenty points. They're giving up twenty seven points. It's crazy,
Oh totally.
Speaker 1 (39:01):
But like that was back and forth the whole time,
and like they would come back to get to that
thirty one, whereas the Chargers there were eight minutes left
in the game, six minutes left in the game when
they were up twenty six to thirteen, and they still
found a way to have to win it in the
final seconds. That is shameful, Jesse Minterter, that is shameful.
(39:22):
All right, I know who your hero of the week is.
I'm going to give you mine, but there's one game
we got to talk about that you were on a
week that is going to be your hero of the week.
Mine is Rico Dowdell. Thirty carries, one hundred and eighty
(39:44):
three yards. Here's what's interesting. I looked at next Gen Stats.
I looked at the rush chart in next Gen Stats,
which is really really cool. All but four of his
carries were up the middle. If you look at the chart,
drought with my hands here, get them really high. Like
everything was between the hash marks, you know, between the
(40:08):
tackles basically except for like four runs that were really outlied.
It's like a big you. Here's what's interesting about that. Also,
I mentioned before four reception fifty six yards team high.
The week before he had two hundred and six yards
on twenty three carries. All but two of his carries
last week went to the right side. So how cool
(40:30):
is that that back to back weeks he goes from
everything to the right side to everything up the middle.
That to me is why we were betting on the
Panthers this week. Dave Canalis is a really good coach
and He's scheming up really good game plans for his
offensive line to take advantage of weaknesses. Last week Miami,
(40:51):
this week the Cowboys. We know they're not very good defenses,
but a lot of times coaches don't take advantage of that,
and he did. I think that's awesome that may Rico
dow Doll the Panther's offensive line, and Dave canallis my
hero of the week.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
I'm gonna go with Baker. Yeah. I just look at
that line all week. I wish I had the ball
to just make us put in the contest, but it
was minus three and a half, and I said, if
it was minus two and a half would have been
a no brainer. But I just was. I didn't get
the line and the hook scared me off. Honestly, where
it's like the books must know something here they didn't.
That was a horrible spot for this four nine ers team.
(41:29):
And in another world, they sure Fred Warner plays that
full game to cover it. But you know, a mecha
Buca goes out. Yeah, it doesn't matter, Baker.
Speaker 1 (41:38):
They've lost another offensive lineman.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
Yeah. I think they're on their third right guard or
third right tackle or something crazy like that. We talked
about it. Like that play the anticitis of Baker. Third
and fifteen. He avoids a sack, you know, makes a move,
avoids another tackler, then fights through one more tackler and
reaches out with the ball to pick up the first down.
(42:00):
Next play, absolute bomb up the seam too. A guy
named I think his name is Tez, like ye a
total no name, and guy makes an unreal catch. He's
doing like backflips and shit in the back of the
end zone and Baker's just yelling the dude's face. He's
going absolutely mental after it, and it's like people want
to keep down it. They can keep trying to fade it.
(42:21):
This was a huge pro spot the pros. Basically the
book is out where top bowles defense cannot beat Shannan's offense,
like you go through any time they never played against
each other. Chan doesn't matter who the quarterback. Kiss has
dominated this matchup and it was looking that way once again,
like they were moving the ball with mac Jones. Mac
Jones though, making throws like insane throws. But you know
(42:44):
you saw it the eventually he was gonna it was
gonna catch up to him, right, He's just he's a gunslinger.
He's gonna put the balls in crazy places. And yeah,
the defense stepped up obviously made the plays, but at
the end of the day, it's just Baker incredible. I
think they one by eleven. Yeah, crazy, crazy, Like this
(43:04):
is a team that, like we just said, a mecha
book goes out for the rest of the game, Like
they just have these huge injuries right now, This this
Bucks team, they keep winning. So yeah, it's I don't
know if we'll bet on next week, but I honestly try.
I can't get enough of betting this guy. It's it's
the best.
Speaker 1 (43:17):
It's it's unreal. And that player're talking about the back
to backs that third and fourteen that he converted, he
had two guys on his back in the offensive backfield.
He escapes, he totally like deeks a guy and then
he dives to get the first down, stretches his arm.
He's stretching his arm as he's falling, like he knows
(43:39):
exactly He's like looking down the line. He knows exactly
where the first down is. Guess the first down. That
next play that was improv like the dude the receiver
broke off his his route and Baker just Loft at one.
It was one of those perfect NFL films, balls like
you'll hear the sound and then it just drops down
(44:02):
and the guy catches the back end of it. Glorious.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
They are a mature, physically powerful squad with a special
confidence that allows them to reach for heroism instead of
merely trying to avoid mistakes.
Speaker 1 (44:19):
Baker's impossible not to love, impossible not to love true,
like his MVP odds are gonna have to be the
shortest when everything reopens in the morning. Like he's just
flat balin, Baker balin the freaking best. It's gonna be
a shame. It's gonna be a shame when next week
(44:41):
we got to talk about betting against Baker Mayfield. Those
were our shame, shame shames, and our heroes of the week.
Let's recapital fast before we get the comments and Leans
Saints plus three and a half. That was Simon says,
Chad loves the Raiders minus four, Brass the Chargers minus
(45:01):
four rock in a hard place. It's tonight, Chiefs minus
two and a half, shar versus square. I had Carolina
plus three and a half. You have the Chiefs minus two.
Favorite parlay Raiders cashed, Steelers cashed, Colts cashed, Chargers cashed,
Pack minus six cashed, who lost? Simon, we had one
(45:25):
team lose Eagles, Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2 (45:31):
But I thought that was only if you were able
to make it. What was the other one we had
in there? I think that was it was the Raiders, No,
because we said we weren't going to use it. I
said it we gave about six because I said not
enough people would hear the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (45:43):
Right, that was the sixth. So it was the Pack
minus six was the other one?
Speaker 2 (45:46):
Oh, okay, okay.
Speaker 1 (45:48):
Underdog parlay was Saints lost, Panthers one Detroit that don't
know yet, Seahawks who were plus one and a half
at the time they won Bears. Tomorrow Night survivor was
Packers barely got by. Okay, A lot of questions, obviously,
(46:10):
we got to talk about uh next week. Mike Vrabel,
I think he's a five and a half point favorite, No.
Six and a half point favorite on the road at
New England, I mean at Tennessee rematch game. I mean,
what do we do here? What's our plan? How do
how like, you know, how do we not bet Mike Vrabel?
(46:35):
How do we not bet Tennessee. This is a question
from Jags by the way, j A g Z.
Speaker 2 (46:43):
That's fair, honestly, if excuse to tell the number. It's
just like, don't we have to bet New England. Just
there's no reason for us to trust Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (46:51):
There's none. They're not good enough.
Speaker 2 (46:53):
That's fair. Like again, this is just gonna be sick
to the stomach because guess the number is inflated, but
is it? This is the tennis team is so poor,
the coach and their offense looks so lost unless they
run out of two minute drolls. So that's fair if
you want to grab that line early.
Speaker 1 (47:08):
Tampa Bay is a I just want to get this
out of the way because we just talked about it.
Tampa Bay is a five and a half point underdog
at Detroit next week. It's a Monday night game, part
of the Monday Night doubleheader.
Speaker 2 (47:24):
I don't have to deal with it because I remember,
I think it might have been two years ago. Baker
was like a nine and a half point dog against
his Detroit team in the regular season, and he went
in there and he beat him, and it was like incredible.
That was when he had gywin and Mike Evans as
the receivers, not these no name guys, and you know,
it's how long can this keep going? So I don't
(47:46):
know what to do. I kind of want to take Detroit,
and I assume that they get smoked tonight and they
take it all out on this Bucks team, so I
don't have to deal with it. My early incline is
to take Detroit. That's a good Detroit number.
Speaker 1 (48:00):
By the way, Alison Norris was the one who was
asking about Baker MVP, like, of course his odds will
you have to expect who else at this point could
be leading or have the shortest odds for MVP.
Speaker 2 (48:15):
Yeah, I blew that one. Like there. He was eleven
to one when we came on Sunday, and I put
it in my notes last week to say something totally
blanked on it. And by the time we did Tuesday show,
he's already down to eight to one. Yeah, apparently that
was still good enough, because, like you said, I think
he's gonna be the favorite now. The only person I
could see still being the guy back up there would
(48:36):
be Josh Allen if he wins obviously tomorrow or if
Golf wins tonight, I could see him if he has
a big game Tonay against the Chiefs being up top there.
Speaker 1 (48:44):
Oh that's interesting. All right, that's really interesting Cleveland. As
you said, it's now at two and a half, two
and a half point favorites over Miami.
Speaker 2 (48:55):
This is just a hard rock I should say that
for everyone.
Speaker 1 (48:57):
I see it at two elsewhere. Yeah, yeah, but definitely
moving in that direction. What do we think of Jacksonville
as a three point home underdog against the Los Angeles Rams.
Speaker 2 (49:10):
I mean, obviously you know what to think. It's the
professional side the Jags, But I don't know.
Speaker 1 (49:17):
Light to day. We're gonna walk away from all this.
Jacksonville never bet him again?
Speaker 2 (49:23):
Right? We should?
Speaker 1 (49:24):
Here is we're gonna bet. We're gonna bet the Jacks.
Speaker 2 (49:28):
Yeah, I'll be patient though, maybe maybe give us the hook.
Maybe we get that three and a half. But I
do not think the Rams are three points better by
the way.
Speaker 1 (49:36):
That game.
Speaker 2 (49:37):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (49:37):
That game is overseas. That is not a game in Jacksonville.
Speaker 2 (49:41):
Back in England again, another England game. How many of
these we got? NFL?
Speaker 1 (49:44):
Oh my god, listen, we're expanding. It's a global it's
a global business.
Speaker 2 (49:49):
Well, Jags, they dominate England. So that's even more reason
to like the Jacks.
Speaker 1 (49:53):
They're basically the London j Jaguars. Yeah, who else are
we looking at right now?
Speaker 2 (50:02):
I mean we haven't talked much about Philly, the ship
show that is Philly right now. Minnesota is plus two
and a half Carson Wentz. I mean this, this would
be rock bottom for a lot of Eagles fans. Of
course it wins smokes us, but that's an intriguing number honestly,
just because Quinny and Mitchell might be out, Carter might
(50:23):
be out. Those are easily the two best defenders on
the Eagles defense. Yea, and without them in the secondary
against Addison Jefferson, that could be a real problem for
that Eagles team. Uh, Chargers, I know we talked about
staying away from it. It's just another pro line. They're
minus one against this Colts team at home. Once again,
be patient, but I know everyone I'm sick to it.
(50:44):
I don't want to I didn't want to have to
bet the Chargers, but this is this is a Chargers line, honestly,
So that's another one that jumps out where I'm hoping
I could be patient. Public comes into the Colts and
I get Chargers out like a nice dog number. Yeah, interesting,
and that one popped out and last one that I
really just jumped out to me just because it's interesting.
(51:06):
That's where they opened it. The Giants were plus seven
and a half against Denver. Yeah, so that's Denver playing
international coming home to a home game. Well that's nice,
but they're playing against arrested Giants team that I think
a mobile quarterback you can't see with fields today, but
I think that type of style can give a type
of defense like Denver real problems. So interesting. The books
(51:28):
are still giving you the hook at seven and a
half a year at hard Rock, so that's just a
number I'll grab early in case professional money does comes in.
The Giants have bet this under the seven, so you
saw it today. The Denver closed all that books at
six and a half today, so yeah, you know it's
interesting that it books open that to get Giants money
because they know how much Denver money will come in
by the public.
Speaker 1 (51:48):
We're getting a lot of questions right now, and we
talked about this right before we came on air. The
line on the Bears game has moved from Washington minus
four and a half to Washington minus five and a half.
We didn't get a chance to really dig in on
why that's happening. It's been happening as we've been on
the air. Really, I'm not understanding the move. I don't
(52:09):
know of any injuries that have been reported in the
last hour or so. In fact, the Bears were going
into the game really healthy, and we know that Diebo
might be out. We know Terry McLaurin is out. What
do you make of the move?
Speaker 2 (52:23):
It asked to be injured and there's something we're not
I know that you guys now announced so much players
that are out. So yeah, like we said, I couldn't
believe when we logged on here, we're looking at early
lines and the number was up to five and a half.
So I'm just thankful we to put in a contest
because I would be hurting right now.
Speaker 1 (52:38):
Really really thankful we didn't put it in the contest
because I'm really glad we have the chiefs. Oh, they're
saying the Bears left tackle is ruled out, but I
don't that doesn't actually make sense. That can't be right,
because the Bears announced that left tackle Braxton Jones was
not going to be starting, and it was going to
be a guy who had been getting a lot of
(53:01):
snaps and have been playing on the offensive line, and
it was this dude who Brax and Jones barely beat
out in training camp, So that can't be the reason
unless all of a sudden that guy is out too.
But then Braxton Jones is playing who's been the starting
left tackle, So I'm not sure that makes any sense.
So we're not really getting good until it, you know,
this time of night on Sunday. As to why that
(53:22):
line is moving yet, we.
Speaker 2 (53:23):
Would say in all week though, that clearly the professional
side is the commander's side, so just clearly be careful.
Speaker 1 (53:28):
It's clearly a professional side, because it had all week
to move from four and a half with all the
news about Washington's health and all the news about the
Bears who are coming back, and instead has moved in
the opposite direction. So something's going on. Finally, just to
remind people, we're three and one heading into Sunday night.
We got Kansas City minus one and a half tonight.
(53:52):
The line is currently two and a half. We've been
liking it all week at one and a half, at two,
even at two and a half, and.
Speaker 2 (53:58):
If you didn't bet it. If Detroit drives the field
here in scores, take the Chiefs live, you'll get a
great number exactly.
Speaker 1 (54:06):
We won with the Raiders minus four and a half.
We won with who else to the Steelers minus four
and a half and the Panthers plus three and a half.
We lost with the Colts minus six and a half.
This has been Sharper Square presented by hard Rock Bet,
part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back
with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday. To go over
(54:27):
the entire NFL slate, watch or listen on YouTube at
Sharper Square like this video, Subscribe to the channel. Also
downloads from Spotify, Apple Pod wherever you get your pods.
Rate review, subscribe us five stars say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love,
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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