Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears and more

Another doubleheader on Monday Night Football really boils the potato of NFL betting expert Chad Millman, but he powers through his rage to join professional sports gambler Simon Hunter as they narrow down more best bets for NFL Week 7. They dive into their favorite NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets for their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest. We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the phone calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers responding to our Tuesday show. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include Sunday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts vs. LA Chargers, the Las Vegas Raiders vs. Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns, and of course MVP candidate Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys vs. Jayden Daniels’ Washington Commanders. Picks and predictions for NFL Week 7 also include our Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites and so much more. #Volume

0:03:00 - START

0:06:00 - SHARP CALLS

0:09:15 - RAIDERS-CHIEFS

0:12:15 - DOLPHINS-BROWNS

0:16:00 - SAINTS-BEARS

0:27:50 - EAGLES-VIKINGS

0:34:30 - PANTHERS-JETS

0:36:20 - PATRIOTS-TITANS

0:39:50 - COLTS-CHARGERS

0:44:15 - GIANTS-BRONCOS

0:45:40 - COMMANDERS-COWBOYS

0:54:00 - FALCONS-NINERS SNF

0:58:15 - BUCCANEERS-LIONS MNF

1:03:00 - TEXANS-SEAHAWKS MNF 

1:07:00 - SIMON'S BIGGEST BETS 

1:08:00 - ROUND ROBIN PARLAYS & MORE 

-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet 

Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter.

Follow on all platforms:

https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/

https://x.com/SharporSquare_

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
I am Chad Noman and I am joined.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
By my BFF, my companion, my Comfadre professional Better, Simon
hunt Are.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Hello, Simon, Chad.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
What's up? Brother?

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Listen? Man?

Speaker 1 (00:28):
A lot of concerns about your hair. And as anyone
can see, anyone who can see, anyone can see who's
watching this on YouTube right now? Like you are filling
the entire frame. My brother, you are flowing. You have
as the kids say, lettuce. But to me, this is
like our playoff Beard right now. No haircuts for you.

(00:51):
You cannot even think about it. You cannot be tempted.
Who is the biblical guy with the hair Sampson? You're
Sampson right now, and you cannot get a cut. For
the record, I'm getting a haircut on Saturday. I gotta
keep it tight. You never can't I live without. I'm

(01:11):
too vain to let it go.

Speaker 3 (01:12):
I can't wait. It's much needed.

Speaker 4 (01:15):
But like we said, I'm very superstitious. I will if
we get winning that's all it matters. So yeah, it's
me being uncomfortable having hair that's just constantly in my eyes.
It's annoying, but it's worth it if we get those
ws and I keep making money.

Speaker 1 (01:28):
Chad Man bun Simon's that is what we are going for.

Speaker 4 (01:37):
It'd be a mullet before it becomes a man. But
I promise to the people that i'd cut the edges
long before.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
Oh man, well, if we keep winning, I'd like to
see that too. If you're making promises, you're gonna.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
Have to deliver.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
This is our Thursday, Week seven episode. We're gonna narrow
down the options on our quest to find five picks
we agree on for this week. We're inching our way
ever close. A reminder, I know we've been saying this,
but we're getting so close. It's just a little bit
of logistics on the back end, but we are so
close to announcing the return of the free to play

(02:14):
five picks a week Pick them contest against the spread
thanks to our benevolent, benevolent sponsorship hard rock Beat All
credit to them.

Speaker 2 (02:22):
Another reminder, watch.

Speaker 1 (02:25):
On YouTube, Apple Pods, listen, Spotify, listen, subscribe.

Speaker 2 (02:31):
All right, let's get into this thing. Every week. We're
gonna get better picks every week.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
The professional betters, the wise guys, they're gonna have opinions
about what we talk about on Tuesday. It's a given
normally they don't like what we're saying, and we're going
to get some criticism. We're going to get some feedback,
We're going to get some pushback. They'll call Simon, they'll
tell him what they think. As usual on Thursdays, every

(02:55):
week it's time for sharp calls.

Speaker 3 (03:00):
I have to answer this phone, all.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Right, rain range telephone range.

Speaker 3 (03:07):
Somebody said, maybe want to do Yeah, it feels like
we gonna get a little disagreement.

Speaker 4 (03:13):
But this week we're going to start with the things
that maybe we're just on the other side of a
lot of these professionals talked about how we liked Atlanta.

Speaker 3 (03:21):
Know a lot of pros that are like the forty
nine ers. Once again, I'm.

Speaker 2 (03:24):
Kind of glad by the way, huh, I'm kind of glad.

Speaker 4 (03:27):
Yeah, but again, I my push back to them is like,
weren't you guys the same one shouting from the rooftops
how amazing on a spot last week was for the
forty nine ers against an overrated Bucks team.

Speaker 2 (03:36):
See you, Okay, but.

Speaker 4 (03:39):
I just I just got a lot of a shock
and I got a good amount of calls about that one.
Got a couple of calls that, uh, you know, about
Chad's choice, So we might have to dive into that
one a little bit, A lot, a lot of a
lot of love from Miami.

Speaker 2 (03:53):
Especially, I've noticed, I've noticed.

Speaker 3 (03:55):
Yeah, so got a couple ones about that.

Speaker 4 (03:57):
But again, I don't know if I totally agree with
I think I like Chad's choice. Got some calls about
the Rams. McVeigh apparently is really good International Games. Okay,
I mean that's not gonna be one. I'm gonna spend
too much time worrying about. It's like and I having
a position I've been taking much about. I just want
people to know that there are pros on that side
and for the Chalky side. A lot of love for Panthers,

(04:19):
for a couple of pros, I know. And let's get
to the ones that maybe we've nailed Chad. Tennessee they
love it, Minnesota, they love it. We didn't really spend
much time talking about the Saints. A lot of pros
love for the Saints. That's a good spot good number.
Obviously we're gonna talk about Raiders.

Speaker 3 (04:38):
We love.

Speaker 4 (04:39):
That was a big talking put a lot of pros
and aur on Monday Night's Special Chat. We might have
to do it. Every Probably talk you likes our Detroit pick.
Every Probably talk to you likes our Houston pick. So
we have some decisions to make this week because I
liked those spots. The more I talk to guys, the
more it feels like, Okay, we might have been locked
in and that those are really good spots.

Speaker 3 (05:00):
Those too Monday night double header games.

Speaker 4 (05:02):
So yeah, I would say we had a little bit
of pushback for the most part, a lot of love
for our picks. And we'll see because again the public
has just began crush this year. We know the data,
we've seen the numbers. It's been the dream is professional better.
And like I joke with people, if you're listening to
someone shows or you're you know, paying like a sucker

(05:22):
for someone's picks on social media and they have a
losing record in the NFL this season, they are the
square of squares.

Speaker 3 (05:28):
You are dealing with, a legit a square because.

Speaker 4 (05:32):
I know pros who they don't do anything work wise,
they don't put eighty hours of work in a week.
They simply fade the public and ride with the books.
It's like one of the most profitable years I can remember.

Speaker 3 (05:43):
So it's it's a good year to about the books.
It's been a good year about these dogs.

Speaker 4 (05:48):
And you know, I feel like me and you have
done well taken favorites we need to this season and
this week again we're on a couple of favorites. So
you love the dogs this week, like a lot of
the pros do. But there's some favorites they're not. You know,
you get a ton of calls about the Chargers. I
still love the Chargers just because a lot of pros
don't love and a couple of them are on the Colts.
I still think it's a Charger spot and like Washington,

(06:09):
a lot of pros I talk to you like Cowboys.

Speaker 3 (06:11):
I still think Washington's a good spot.

Speaker 4 (06:13):
So it's an interesting week with professionals going back and
forth in a lot of these games.

Speaker 1 (06:18):
Well, a lot of short lines, so you're gonna get
two way action on short lines.

Speaker 2 (06:22):
All right, that was sharp calls.

Speaker 1 (06:23):
Let's get into the games real quickly. You mentioned Chiefs Raiders.
I don't want to spend too much time on it.
I don't think we're going to put it in our contest.
We wanted to be patient, we wanted to get to twelve,
twelve and a half. In my opinion, sure, go ahead
bet the Raiders, but I don't think you're necessarily betting

(06:44):
a power ranking here. You're kind of just betting the number.
I don't think we're we need to spend too much
time on it because it's not going to be a
contest play. It's just sort of play the number, play
the dog, fade the public kind of play.

Speaker 4 (06:58):
To me, this is a long term winner, though. This
is a play you have to make if you listen
to the show.

Speaker 3 (07:03):
You have to bet the Raiders. I mean, I can
just give some quick numbers.

Speaker 4 (07:07):
Like there's tons of data that backs it up as
a favorite of a touchdown or more so Mahomes since
twenty twenty, he's thirty six and two straight up. There's
only two losses in that time frame chat since twenty twenty,
both against the Raiders.

Speaker 3 (07:19):
So it's a weird, unique spot.

Speaker 4 (07:23):
You know, he's thirteen and twenty four against the spread
as a favorite of seven points or more so, Like
we talked about we like to fade him. When he's
big favorites, we like to back them. He's a short
favorite or a dog Mahomes. These numbers all back that up,
and just something to keep in mind. It's divisional games
are very stupid. That was my whole point about bringing
this up, a kind of hammering home. Like I just
told you, Mahomes he doesn't lose ever in the spot.

(07:45):
He's only lost twice against Raiders, So if you go
back and look through those games, it's a joke. It's like,
you know, the the Raiders were I think one game
they were a third point thirteen point dog. In the
game they were like this, they were a twelve point dog.
So I get it, Like I'm not going to bang
the table here about this one. But it's just all

(08:05):
these numbers. There's even more numbers. There's another number of
Saul Mahomes is eleven point favorite or more. He's six
and twelve in his career against the spread, so again
another spot to like it. In his last eleven he's
two and nine against the spread. So it's like, we
got to do it. I know we have a lot
of games we like this week, so I probably won't
force it in. Just don't be shocked people if I

(08:28):
do get these glassy eyes to it come Sunday morning,
because I see how ugly it is with you know,
I think you're in the same boat. We just don't
trust him. But it's like historically we have to bet this.
This is a long term winner in a position we
need to take. And you know, Mahomes outside his division
is a big favorite. He's done really well in his division.
He's four to twelve and one his last sixteen so

(08:49):
against the spread.

Speaker 3 (08:49):
So it's just something to keep bringing up.

Speaker 4 (08:51):
That is, numbers are always inflated, and they're tend to
be more inflated against guys in his own division. So
I agree with you, though there are games I like more.
It's just taking a position on this one. I'm betting
the Raiders, And like I said, I was hoping I
was going to get the thirteen. The Pros they have
the same number as I do. They've they've they've come in.
It never touched thirteen. It only got up to twelve
and a half. Like CHET said, it's a dead number.

(09:11):
Not going to be one of our bets most likely,
But yeah, I do like the Raiders on the spot.

Speaker 1 (09:16):
All right, you just mentioned this in Sharp Calls. Miami
at Cleveland. Cleveland is a two and a half point favorite.
This was Chad's choice. The two and a half lasted
for about twenty four hours after our show, and it
got bumped up to three because I move lines. We
know that the betters buying it back and moving back

(09:37):
down to two and a half.

Speaker 2 (09:39):
I'm gonna be honest, and I.

Speaker 1 (09:41):
Didn't know this was going to be in Sharp Calls,
but I could have predicted it. I would have felt
better if it stayed at three for a little bit longer.
I'm kind of surprised by the buy back. And then
I will tell you also the fact that over the
past twenty four hours two has been taking blowback for
his comments about the team meeting in the players only meetings,
and now he's apologizing and Mike McDaniel gave him a

(10:04):
little bit of grief at a press conference about it.
That worries me. It worries me because when those teams
are at their lowest and you think you've got it nailed,
that's when you end up getting burned a little bit.
I'm still on the Browns. I still like the Browns
in this spot. I like it situationally, I like the

(10:25):
matchup karmically. If I can't think of a better word,
I'm getting a little anxious.

Speaker 4 (10:33):
That's funny because I've gotten those toll option away where
I was with you on clean because I liked the spot.
I thought two and a half was a good number.
The Miami dysfunction is like, this is the best. This
is exactly what I wanted and needed for this matchup.
Like they should be focused on the game and going
against some of the best defensive lines they're going to
face all year.

Speaker 3 (10:52):
They're not.

Speaker 4 (10:53):
They're worried about all this other bs, which is like,
this is what bad teams do. This is how bad
teams stay bad. Don't worry about what's on the field,
what they need to deal with on the field. They're
worrying about what guys aren't coming to meetings at the
right time. Or I mean, I don't know if you've
been watching the tool of stuff he and I don't
want to joke about TT, but the stuff he says

(11:13):
week to week, it feels like he's got something going
on upstairs, Like he doesn't make sense, and like he
was saying how he doesn't want guys on the team
talking about other people and being distraction where he's the
guy that just did it, and it's like, okay, maybe
a zero self awareness.

Speaker 3 (11:31):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (11:32):
He's just saying the most bizarre things that like people
just don't want to hear. Like even like a week
or two ago, you're talking about how like he doesn't
care what happens on the field because he goes home
to a loving family. That's great mentality. We all that's great,
Like everyone agrees with that. Don't say that to your
fans who know you're making hundreds of million dollars so
that's why you should care how you do on the
field and if you win or losing all of it.

(11:53):
It's just it's just so negative. So I'm still with you.
I was shocked, honestly, these pros. It's like, dude, you
got a way the one last week with Miami, Like
you're really going back to this Miami well again after
you clearly stole a game against the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (12:08):
I can't believe it. So I'm with you. I was
shocked here in sharp calls.

Speaker 4 (12:12):
I still like Cleveland, but yeah, if it's if we
get pushed off that this is down to you know,
Cleveland minus one and a half and the pros of
coming very heavy on Miami again. Sure, like, we'll avoid
it Sunday morning, won't put in the contest because we
have some other games we like. But yeah, I still
think this is just a great, great matchup for Cleveland.

Speaker 1 (12:32):
I'm so glad to hear you say that, because I
loved my handicap at the game. Like, I was so
excited about it when I finally came to that conclusion
at some point, you know, before we came out the
air Tuesday, I'm like, I nailed it. There's three or
four games that I freaking nailed and I feel like
I totally nailed this one. So now you're booing me

(12:52):
with confidence. I'm glad we'll stay on Cleveland minus two
and a half. I hope, I hope it doesn't continue
to go down and we don't get more chatter from
wise guys. But I like Cleveland two and a half.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
New Orleans Chicago.

Speaker 1 (13:03):
You mentioned this, We discussed it a little bit on Tuesday.
It's moved a half point in the same direction. Here's
my question. This moves so much. On Monday night, after
the Bears beat the Commanders in the final second to
move from four and a half to five and a half.

Speaker 2 (13:19):
I think it was a headfake.

Speaker 1 (13:21):
I think the wise Guy's moved it to five and
a half so they could buy back at four and
a half because I think the entire wise Guy community
right now is in love with Spencer Ratler.

Speaker 2 (13:33):
That's what I think.

Speaker 3 (13:35):
That could be fair.

Speaker 4 (13:36):
Honestly, I'm shocked, but I just the Saints, even Spencer Rattler,
he's not good on the road.

Speaker 3 (13:43):
I know it's a short sample this year, but even
this year he's not been good on the road. And
the Bears.

Speaker 4 (13:50):
My whole view was I just thought it was an
inflated line where like I said, the Saints, the public
is not on them, there's no one, no one public
like it is a PROS team. Like you're right, but
then yet, like you dive into the trends and the numbers.
Sure you as a Bears fan, you can probably a
test of this, but again it's it's different because the
coaching change, but it does include this year. So the

(14:11):
last four games on short rest with Kayler Williams, he's
ohing four straight up in those games, he's only getting
fifteen points per game, So okay, he struggles in short rests. Again,
that's a big deal. Less prep time the last two years. Okay,
he's own four. I try to dive into more. It's like, okay,
what are they like after these primetime games? Because that's

(14:34):
that is a big deal to me, is how these
young teams react after prime time games. So sadly, Chad
is not good. They are just two and seven the
last nine games coming off primetime games, and this year
obviously only because this is Ben Johnson's only his first year.
He lost against the Lions, right, he got smoked in

(14:55):
that game, So you know, it's it's how is this
young team going to react? That's that's probably what a
lot of professors are viewing this as, where it's you know,
it's treyk I mean even you know, there's it's Chicago
like there, it's so much better. They've coming off two
straight road winds, because it's going to be good vibes
for the most part. I mean, I feel like the
only dumb question they've had this week is the whole

(15:15):
Troy Aikman, which I'm hoping you've come to my side,
Troy Aikman being a dick and kind of being overrated,
H Troy.

Speaker 1 (15:23):
I actually, I actually it's funny you say that. I'm
on the other side. I feel like he was great
in that game. I have no problem with what he said.
I always feel like Troy Aikman is great in those games.
And the reason I want I like Troy Aikman. I
think he's such a curmudgeon and I think he's like
he gets he gets testy and sensitive about everything. At

(15:45):
one point he was talking about the K balls and
it being swapped out because it was raining and getting
to work the balls in And I always think about this,
and this this frames a lot of my Troy Aikman feelings.

Speaker 3 (15:59):
Uh you.

Speaker 2 (16:00):
Now, Back in the day when I was.

Speaker 1 (16:01):
A cub reporter at Sports Illustrated, I went to what
was then Valley Ranch working for Sports Illustrator and was part.

Speaker 2 (16:10):
Of a two person team.

Speaker 1 (16:11):
It was me and a guy, Rick Tellender, who was
a senior writer at Sports Illustrator. We spent an entire
week with the Cowboys, and we had full access, like
we were literally everywhere we were in the room where
like the pills were broken up into different colors.

Speaker 3 (16:26):
Right.

Speaker 2 (16:27):
I was with Bill.

Speaker 1 (16:28):
Bates, where the former safety when he got home to
his house and his wife told him that they were
having another kid. I think they had three kids at
the time. Like, I was at a club with different players.
It was a crazy week. But at one point I
was in the locker room when Troy Aikman had just
gotten a bag of new balls, new footballs, and he

(16:49):
had to break them in, and it was some new
rule that year about the balls, and he was just
so freaking mad about having to break in the ball
and just muttering under his breath. You know, the NFL
they want us to do these things with the balls
that makes it harder to play, Like I just have
that in my head, Like this Jew's just intense, and

(17:11):
I think he I think he's actually great. I know
I'm in the minority here, and I'm fine with what.

Speaker 3 (17:16):
The christ You're probably the one percent.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
You know what. I don't think the Bears are perfect
in that game.

Speaker 4 (17:23):
I like, but he was ridiculous him holding a garage
against Killer Williams because he didn't call him to have
a phone call.

Speaker 3 (17:30):
Before the game. It's just don't care, old boomer energy.

Speaker 2 (17:34):
I don't care. Loved it.

Speaker 4 (17:37):
I know, I know there's no one better in football
that tells you a team needs to call it time
out when there's less than two minutes left and they
get a first down than Troy Aikman. The man thinks
he's a genius every time he goes Yep, they gotta
call it time out here, Joe. Okay, Troy, thank you
for that.

Speaker 2 (17:53):
I love everything he does. I'm a huge, huge TROYK fan.

Speaker 4 (17:57):
I think this game, I guess, you know, we don't
have to take a position on it. I'll probably end
up being on rattler in this Saints team just because
it is this Bears defense that is just bad. They're
just a bad defense that has major holes. I think
they're still thirty thirty first against the run. So it's like,
I mean, you know, the Bears could easily win this game.

(18:18):
They are more talented both sides of the ball and
obviously have a better coach. But you know, just looking
through the trends, historically this has been a bad spot
and even with Ben Johnson, you know he's changed a lot. Here,
we'll see this would be a huge, huge, another thing
to show that the culture is different. If he can
get this young team up after a prime time win,

(18:39):
because it's just hard to do. It's hard not to
live for three four days with that win rather than
moving on to the next game.

Speaker 3 (18:47):
So give me interesting to see how this Bears team performs.

Speaker 2 (18:49):
I think it's a terrible spot for the Bears to cover.
I like him to win. Their defense is terrible.

Speaker 1 (18:54):
The Saints can get a pass rush, which is where
Caleb has struggled a little bit, get sacked, but against
the rush, I think he's still horribly inaccurate in intermediate roots.
I think he's holding the ball too long. I got
a lot of issues with Kleb. I love the Bears, obviously.
I love the Bears. I only want good things for

(19:15):
the Bears. I only want good things for all Bears fans,
including me and my younger son, who I've gifted with
the tragedy of Bears fandom. I hate the spot for
the Bears, and I think it's a statement game because
of what you just said. They got to figure out
a way to get beyond a really big win, a

(19:36):
dramatic win, and win a game against a bad team
at home.

Speaker 2 (19:40):
That's it.

Speaker 1 (19:41):
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor,
hard Rock. Bet Week seven kicks off with Steelers versus Bengals.

Speaker 2 (19:50):
Check out these streaks from hard Rock Bet stats up.

Speaker 1 (19:52):
You can find odds to bet on all of these
streaks right now in a hard Rock Bet app. Cincinnati
has lost nine in a row is on do but
receiver t Higgins has scored a touchdown in six straight
home games. If you like stats like those, you can
bet with them using live odds right there in hard
Rock bet stats Hub. If you haven't tried your first
bet on hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you

(20:14):
to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
if you win. Just place a five dollars bet and
if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but
also an extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
Plus Tonight on hard Rock Bet, you can get a
Thursday Night Parlay boost for the game boost, your same
game parlay or SGP Max, so your bet pays extra winnings.
Here's a parlay I like tonight in Cincy under in

(20:34):
the game under in the second half in Joe Flacco
over one and a half interceptions. There's new promos every day,
so if you're listening to this later, just open the
app and check out what you've got. Any day of
the week, download the hard Rock Bet app and make
your first deposit offered by the Seminal Tribe of Florida.
In Florida, offered by Seminal hard Rock Digital, LC and

(20:56):
all other states, must be twenty one or over physically
present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee,
or Virginia to play.

Speaker 2 (21:06):
Terms and conditions apply.

Speaker 1 (21:07):
Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight three three
play wise in Indiana, if you were someone you know
as a gambling problem and wants help one eight hundred
and nine with it, gambling problem called one eight hundred
gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia, Philadelphia, Minnesota.
Minnesota is now a one and a half point favorite.

(21:30):
Can I tell you a story that's going to feel
totally relevant.

Speaker 2 (21:33):
When I'm done? Yeah, it's gonna make you look good.

Speaker 1 (21:36):
So you know, I'm working on this book right And
one of the guys I'm profiling the book profiling the
book is professional better, very high stakes professional better like
you she's betting six figures on games. And he's got
a bunch of very high net worth guys who tail him,
and they get these free plays on the games, and
then he gets a percentage of whatever they win. And

(21:57):
so I happen to know completely random one of the
guys who tails him, and this guy works in finance,
and he's betting twenty twenty five grand a game on
whatever this guy bets, right, And he has told me
anytime this guy texts with a bet that he's making,
he will stop what he's doing.

Speaker 2 (22:14):
He will walk out of board meetings, he.

Speaker 1 (22:15):
Will walk out of phone calls, will whatever it takes
to get the bet down. When this guy says it
before the line moves, he will do it. So you know,
before the season began, I was with this professional better
and he happened to send out a text to a
bunch of folks that tail him, including this guy, And
this guy texted me. He said, I'm on the highway

(22:39):
right now and I just pulled over to make a
bet based on what this guy just texted me.

Speaker 2 (22:46):
Here's my point.

Speaker 1 (22:48):
When someone who knows something says something, you need to
stop whatever you're doing and get the best of the
number Simon on Tuesday show, you said take minutes plus
two and a half. I really hope people were paying attention,
and I hope they stopped whatever they were doing whenever
they heard that to go get the Bikings at two
and a half.

Speaker 2 (23:09):
Because it's now at one and a half.

Speaker 3 (23:11):
It might come back, though.

Speaker 4 (23:13):
I do think obviously that's the professional side that money
has come in. But we talked about the risk with
this bet and thinking this position was I didn't know
the injury report right we were doing that on Tuesday.
J J McCarthy did practice, which to me, I don't
know about you, Chad. I did not make this bet
to bet on JJ McCarthy against a Fangs defense like

(23:33):
that's not I'd much rather it be Wentz running this
offense where Yeah, I know Wentz is gonna throw us
a pick, but I also know he's gonna be able
to push the ball downfield with much better accuracy than JJ.

Speaker 3 (23:43):
And for the.

Speaker 4 (23:45):
Eagle side, looks like they're gonna get Dalen. Carter Back
Quinnion Mitchell did practice yesterday limited, so I don't know
if he's actually gonna play, which to me, that is
the factor Jalen Carr obviously is.

Speaker 3 (23:55):
A big deal. He's not I mean, he's gonna he
can be a non factor.

Speaker 4 (23:59):
What we've seen this year with the Eagles is the
teams just double him because the Eagles have literally four
pass rushers on their staff right now, like we have
four d ns, and none of them are talented enough
to warrant a double team. So you can mitigate Card,
you cannot mitigate Quinny and Mitchell and what he can
do for this team that we're talking about, justin Jefferson,

(24:20):
if he's going against the Eagles number two or number
three corner.

Speaker 3 (24:23):
It's over. This is a horrible, horrible matchup for this
Eagles team.

Speaker 4 (24:26):
And even diving into some of the numbers with Jalen Hurts,
like we talked last week, we talked a little bit
about the Giants taking the number at seven and a
half and how the trends just loved that Giants team
in that exact spot. It was the same thing with
the trend just hated the Eagles in that exact spot.
The Egles are just not a good team for some reason.
After they have straight up losses, they've been very fortunate.

(24:47):
They just don't lose so you could say, well, these
are old stats because they just went whatever it was.
Hurts just went twenty and one the last year. But
you saw last year earlier in the year when they
were losing, it took them a cup weeks to get
into that groove and start covering spread. So you know, Hurts,
this is gonna be his twenty second game off a
straight up loss. He's ten and eleven the following game

(25:10):
seven and fourteen against the spread. So historically just not
good because again the public still overvalues them, and it's
just whenever the Eagles do lose, it seems like in
his career it's a skid.

Speaker 3 (25:21):
It's not.

Speaker 4 (25:22):
It's not the type of thing where it's like, Okay,
they win one week, they'll win the next. It's no,
it's like three four weeks of just bad. Like it
takes them a lot to get out of this hole.
So we said it's it's gonna be interesting how they
use the extended time. I don't think they're gonna fix
the offense. I know they're saying all the right things
right now. I just think that's a you know, Hurts
is a professional, classy guy. He's never gonna throw his
bus his coach under the bus. But aj Brown the

(25:45):
true truth teller, He's the one who he's the guy
you want to hear from because he's gonna kind of
give you that is. And he said what I think
is true. He said, everything's fine, but we do need
to make it just We need to run the ball more.
We need to do different things where you know, if
I'm one on one, I should be getting the ball.
That's that's the key here. It's like his Eagles offense
going to show up because I do think the Vikings
right now offensively to me are the better team.

Speaker 3 (26:08):
They are.

Speaker 4 (26:09):
You know, you could say there it's Carson Wentz. They're
not in that much of a rhythm either. They're still
better than Eagles on paper statistically in a lot of categories,
and they don't have they even played the easiest schedule
the Wakens.

Speaker 3 (26:19):
They've had a hard schedule as well.

Speaker 4 (26:21):
And defensively they're getting guys back like Floresa's getting guys
back this week.

Speaker 3 (26:26):
So yeah, I just it's a get right spot for
this Eagles team.

Speaker 4 (26:30):
I think it's just another bad spot for them and
the publics walking into it. So, like Chad said, this
numbers moved. Hopefully you did get the two and a half.
I think you can be patient here. I think if
Quanya Mitchell gets cleared, Jayalen Carter gets cleared, hopefully it's
Carson Wentz still, I think it could get back to
two and a half. Off it's JJ, this could get
up to three three and a half. Like this could
really move if it's JJ McCarthy getting cleared here. But

(26:52):
everything I've seen from Koc, it seems like he wants
it to be Wentz in this game. He doesn't want
to just throw the rookie at eight percent. He is
right now back into this type of game. So I'm
hoping Casey goes with Wentz, which I think is this
smart move. My model isn't great at higher and I
think he's smart enough to know why would you not
want to play the vet here, who's seen a lot
a lot of stuff things are going to throw at him,

(27:13):
rather than JJ McCarthy making and what his third start
now in the league, it's just not a good ideal
spot for him.

Speaker 2 (27:19):
All would look, it's a tricky game.

Speaker 1 (27:20):
It's one of those games that we're going to have
to really nail down on Sunday when we got a
better sense of who's starting in everybody who is expected
to play because it is so dependent on quarterback and injury.

Speaker 3 (27:36):
But that was a lot of games. We love this week.

Speaker 4 (27:38):
Like, if this is a tough week and I just
not having a lot of games, I probably would force
his winning because I do really like them on the
spot we're gonna see.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
I have like just a lot of games.

Speaker 4 (27:45):
I like this week's surprise, and I think there's a
lot of really good numbers. Yeah, the public just keeps
overreacting to what happened last week, where this this year
has just been seesaw none of these these teams and
origins is a difference is so slim. These are my
favorite years I've been into because it's like we just
over what we saw the week before rather than the
whole pitcher.

Speaker 3 (28:03):
So there's a lot of games this week. I like
with the lines.

Speaker 1 (28:08):
This next game, I don't want to spend too much
time on because I don't think we're going to do
anything with it other than to say Carolina and the
New York Jets. This line was at two, it's moved
to one and a half. Betting the New York Jets
right now requires amnesia.

Speaker 2 (28:24):
That's it.

Speaker 1 (28:25):
We know it's the sharp side. We know it's what
everybody wants to play. We know what it looks like
from a metrics point of view. We know that Carolina
is coming off two dramatic wins, that they've done it
with running games against the two worst defenses in the NFL.
The Jets statistically are not the worst defense in the NFL,

(28:45):
like the Cowboys, like the Dolphins. We know the Jets
of the right side. But it's going to take more
than brass balls to bet the Jets. It's going to
take forgetting everything we've seen about the Jets for the
past couple of weeks. I don't know if there's anything
more to say about it other than we're taking the Jets.

Speaker 2 (29:02):
It's not going to be in the contest. We're moving on.

Speaker 4 (29:06):
Yeah, who knows, Maybe i'll convince you something morning, But yeah,
I'm starting to really warm up to this Jets team
in the Jet spots because how much I do hate
it where it's like, like you said, we're playing the
number here. I can't let emotions get involved here. And
this is a good, a very good number for a
Jets team against a parallel Carolina Panthers team that we've

(29:26):
all seen it like, they just they haven't won as
a favorite in like, what is it chat five years
or something, maybe it's seven years.

Speaker 3 (29:32):
It's something insane, So it's hard to.

Speaker 2 (29:34):
Know, but I know it's not when we were betting them.

Speaker 4 (29:37):
No, no, no, we definitely took positions on in his
favorites and lost along the way. But yeah, that's fair.
We're gonna make our fans do some gross things this week.
I don't know that's to be one of them, but
I'm definitely on the Jets.

Speaker 1 (29:51):
We are going to make fans do gross things this week,
and that includes this next game, New England at Tennessee.
A buddy texted me the other day and he said,
this has to be brass balls. You know what, He's right?

Speaker 2 (30:09):
Our brass balls better the.

Speaker 1 (30:12):
Week presented by hard Rock Bat the Tennessee Titans plus seven.

Speaker 3 (30:19):
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.

Speaker 1 (30:25):
Talk about not wanting to get to a spot. We
did not want to get to this spot.

Speaker 3 (30:29):
Again.

Speaker 4 (30:29):
People are listening to the show, SOS sharp, birsh Square.
This is the sharp side we know, and we know
the public side is going to be the Patriots. They're
going to be in every teaser. I'm sure you were
going to take them survivor contest. Just be careful, like,
even though it's not a huge advantage the first game
after the coach is fired, I do think these type

(30:51):
of scenarios where coach was so bad and it was
so negative and a lot of the stuff they lost
felt like it was self inflicted.

Speaker 3 (30:59):
I do think these type of spots matter. And yeah,
it's it's gross.

Speaker 4 (31:04):
Like if this was seven and a half, like it's
going to be for us most likely in the contest,
I would be banging the table. You have to grab
it right now because it's to me at seven, this
is right where it should be, Like this is a
good number, probably getting two free points. And Chad really
talked about it's again there's always lazy stats, but there

(31:26):
are things to tick away from it. Three straight road
games for a team, that's a lazy stat, but it's
profitable to fade fading teams that are off three straight
road games, let alone they've already won two straight. This yeah,
all two straight wins, horrible horrible spots. So that that
to me is another thing where it's like, okay, we
have our favorite dead cat bounce with the new coach.

(31:49):
Now you're mixing in just how horrible of a spot
this is? If anyone can win it? It is variable,
but like you said, I think you said, it's like
a thirty win rate or something.

Speaker 3 (31:58):
Horrible spot.

Speaker 4 (32:00):
Yeah, so I'm with you, brother, like I'm I'm invested
in this, Tennessee. I bet a lot into this seven,
this plus seven. At this point, it's a lot of
safety in this number two. You're getting the seven. There's
no excuse. If this is five and a half, maybe
I could lie to Chad and talk them out of
it and try to get away from it. But at
this number, it's insane. It's so inflated. We got to
take it. And yeah, versus this type of game will

(32:22):
look like an idiot with that going on our face
Sunday night, or our fans who love and trust this,
they'll they'll see this is why we bet these spots.

Speaker 3 (32:29):
It's all about the number.

Speaker 4 (32:30):
Dorm a wat if you can't stay in Tennessee, you
don't watch it, because I agree, it's probably not gonna
be fun. But it is just so much about the
number in the spot here, And I love that you
brought up how the third.

Speaker 3 (32:40):
Trade road game.

Speaker 4 (32:41):
To me, that's all I needed to hear to really
get me behind this Tennessee team.

Speaker 1 (32:44):
Tennessee Titans plus seven. That is our brass balls bet
of the week. Indianapolis at the LA Chargers. That game
is now at Chargers minus two. This was going to
be your assignment, says if we didn't go with Minnesota.
This one has moved as well, well, not as aggressively
moved from one and a half to two. You were
a little surprised that we didn't get feedback from sharp

(33:07):
calls on this. But I look at this game right now,
and I, like you, am kind of falling in love
with the Chargers and they seem to do this to
us every single week, and shame on us because when
we've been doing it, we've been betting them as short
road favorites and not as short home favorites. And I
feel like there's just got to be regression with Daniel Jones.

(33:31):
That's at the end of the day. That's what this
is about to me, is regression for Daniel Jones. It's
a five and one team that could just easily be
four and three, right or four and two, So.

Speaker 2 (33:44):
That's my thought. I'm still with you on the try.

Speaker 4 (33:47):
Yeah, pretty chich In hard rock is that too? Because
most books have moved the minus one and a half. Again,
there's one book out there plus two and a half,
but that to me, will come down. That just means
one very very very smart professional group must have came
in heavy at this one book.

Speaker 3 (34:03):
But to me, it should just be one and a half.

Speaker 4 (34:05):
Like this, I don't know why the books are gonna
move it unless it is professional money, because to me,
it's just gonna be all public money on this Colts team.
Every bet, everyone I know is gonna be on the
Colts team. And that's why I'm shocked more pros weren't
lining up like we are on this Chargers team. You're
getting a team that I'm almost positive I've lost three
straight against the spread games. So to me, you're buying

(34:27):
very low on a Chargers team. And this we talked
all the time about coaches and spots. This is a
horrorball spot. This is the type of game that he
gets the guys up for. I mean, I'm gonna I'll
look into maybe off on norths for us on Sunday.
I am assuming horrorball in his career has never between
college or pro, has ever lost four straight against the spread. Again,

(34:48):
this is a guest, but it's like, if you look
through his record, he's always well above five hundred wherever
he goes against the spread. So to go on this
type of run here is pretty wild. It just shows,
like we said last week that we were a part
of it. We were still overrating this Chargers team from
what they did in the first couple of weeks, which
happens in football right teams get banged up. Something that's

(35:10):
really exciting to me is Joe Alt was practicing this week. Yeah,
so that to me is a little sneaky thing that
he might be back in this game.

Speaker 3 (35:17):
And you know.

Speaker 4 (35:20):
It's it's really we talked about the Daniel Jones regression.
I mean, what he's done against pressure has been ubseceneasts
and I said that last week. I couldn't believe it
was a real number. He went nine for nine last
week against pressure, which is just unbelievable.

Speaker 3 (35:35):
The hot route.

Speaker 4 (35:36):
Connecting nine for nine in the hot reading hot route
is just crazy. So I know we both know we're
walking into it a little bit here against this Colt
Steam and how good they've been. But like I said,
no teams go perfect, no teams go fifteen to one.
It's just teams lose. Daniel Jones is gonna have a
bad game. This is a bad matchup. And on the
flip side for Herbert, you know he I think you'll

(36:00):
get confident, especially if Joe altzback. His confidence will keep
growing and he'll feel more comfortable obviously dropping back and passing.
But like I said, horrorball spot for this Chargers team,
Like this is the type of game where he wins
might be ugly.

Speaker 3 (36:13):
Maybe we'll land on two.

Speaker 4 (36:15):
We're getting one and a half almost every book right now,
Like that's such a great number, so you don't have
to take it here at hard Rock that hard Rock
is usually a sharper book. Like we've seen, they usually
get smart money coming in on certain sides, so hard
Rock could easily get up to two and a half.
I could see professionals keep taking this Charger side. For
all of you out there, shop around, find the one

(36:35):
and a half. It's out there. I know the juice
isn't great usually minus went fifteen, Minus went twelve, but
I think it's worth paying. In the spot with his
line on this Chargers team.

Speaker 1 (36:45):
I also think the Colts are going to be a
public dog this week, and.

Speaker 3 (36:51):
So they're gonna be the biggest public dog.

Speaker 1 (36:53):
Yeah. I mean any single time we can be fading
the public dog, especially this season, I feel like that's
the side we want to be in. Getting interesting to me,
Simon is I feel like we're narrowing dead on five
on five that we really really like. I think there's
going to be one game that sort of is on
the on the edge that we'll talk about in a
little bit New York Giants at Denver. I don't think

(37:17):
we need to spend too much time in this. I
don't think it's going to make it. I love it.

Speaker 2 (37:21):
I totally love it.

Speaker 1 (37:22):
It never got to the six and a half like
I was hoping it would. It actually is moving closer
to seven half. You can see the juice and it's
heading in that direction. So my final statement on the game,
I think there's a defense advantage for the defensive advantage
for the Broncos. I think it's a home advantage for

(37:42):
the Broncos. I think it's a coaching advantage for the Broncos.
I don't think that camp Scataboo and Jackson Dart have
seen anything close to what the Broncos can do to
confuse them, to stop the run, to make it challenging,
to lock down their outside receivers with pascertain when they
don't have a Lak Neighbors. Massive situation would have vanished

(38:04):
to me. I bet it at seven. I don't have
to stand on ceremony about it. I think there's gonna
be other games we want to put in. It didn't
come up in sharp calls. I don't know your strong
opinion on this.

Speaker 3 (38:18):
No, I just haven't talked much about it.

Speaker 4 (38:20):
I took a position Sunday night on Giants seven and
a half, and that's honestly, that's it. There's just other
games I like more, and there's just I don't trust Bonix,
I don't trust Denver, And like you said at seven
and a half, I could push back against you and
be like, oh, you gotta take a Giants here.

Speaker 3 (38:33):
But I'm not dug in on this game at all.

Speaker 1 (38:37):
Washington ed Dallas, this one's moving. It was too it's
now one and a half. A lot of negativity around
the Commanders right now. I think that game against the Bears,
it seemed like they were gonna win it. It seemed
like the Bears were giving it away. It seemed like
Jayden Daniels was moving well enough to slip by really

(39:01):
defenders in the backfield against the Bears, and then he
converted some really nice plays on third and long against
horrific horrific play calls from Dennis Allen. But people don't
like this defense. They don't think Jayden Daniels looks as
good as he did last year. He's been injured, and
people just love DAK. So the question is this Cowboys

(39:21):
defense is so unbetable right now? Are we willing to
take a shot with the Dallas Cowboys as home underdogs
because we love DAK more than we hate their defense.

Speaker 4 (39:35):
I can answered the trends because I honestly I liked
the Commander show. I thought this was gonna be a
good Commander's spot because I just think they're like we said,
I think there are a better team than Cowboys. Colways
just have a ton of injuries and DAK is the
only thing you can really wrap your head around of
a reason to back this Cowboys team, and the numbers
back it up.

Speaker 3 (39:53):
I mean I talked earlier the week, I.

Speaker 4 (39:55):
Think in position on the under here, and I joke,
there's no way there's ever been a total this in
this match between these two teams.

Speaker 3 (40:02):
I was wrong. So the last time.

Speaker 4 (40:05):
They were fifty four the spread total was fifty four
or above was nineteen eighty in this matchup.

Speaker 3 (40:11):
So it did happen. It was just forty five years ago.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
Forty five years ago. Yeah, yeah, I'm pretty sure. I'm
pretty sure. I watched that game. It was like, you know,
Danny White and Drew Pearson against against Joe Thaisman and
the Smurfs.

Speaker 4 (40:25):
I couldn't believe that it's happened before because it's like, man, that's.

Speaker 3 (40:28):
It's just such a huge total.

Speaker 4 (40:30):
For a divisional game and just so many things go wrong.
So yeah, that's that's shocked. That stats shocked me. Let's
run throw the Cowboys stats because I just I was
trying to find why is there so much love by
the pros for this Cowboys team.

Speaker 3 (40:45):
It's got to be historical data. So let's go through it.

Speaker 4 (40:48):
Their last eight games against the Commanders, there's seven to
one against the spread. This this Dallas team. That's four
straight covers at home. So okay, it's a team that
they at matchup well against again. You can even go
back to the Kirk Cousins years, even he struggled with
Washington against this Dallas team. So all right, let's dive

(41:10):
into Dak thing because it must be a Dak thing.
Dak ten and three against Washington against the spread in
his career, that's the best quarterback the last twenty years
against Washington. He is six and oh straight up in
his career, five to one against the spread against Washington.
So I get it.

Speaker 3 (41:28):
Maybe I won't force us to take this Washington just
because there's certain there's certain teams, and just in your.

Speaker 4 (41:32):
Division, you have the number of I mean, ask tons
of fans about certain quarterbacks in their divisions. It's just
like like the Roethlisberger thing against the Cleveland It was stupid,
but I made a lifechanging amount of money betting Roethlisberger's
money line against the Browns every time they played. He
just I feel I can't remember if you ever lost them.
Only time I could think of as that playoff game

(41:53):
with Baker. So it's like there's certain guys that are
just auto plays against certain teams. I guess the stats
are telling me that with this Dak team. But it's like, dude,
Dak's defense. This is the worst defense he's ever had
in that whole career. But once again, it's the reasons
to scare me off because I went through a lot
of those games. It really was Dak leading his team

(42:16):
and a game and a couple of those to get
the win and get the cover. So even when they
didn't have great defenses in the last couple of years
of Dak's career, they've He's still played up and played
well against him. So I don't have to deal with it.
I wanted to be on Washington. I can't afford to
be patient here. If you want Dallas, i'd grabbed the
two and a half. I could see it. Like we said,
it's already one and a half year at hard Rock.

(42:37):
You better go grab two and a half because I
think the pro's gonna keep betting it. I'll be patient,
I'll grab Washington. I just like this matchupespecially if Terry
mclaarin comes back, thinking him and Deebo this is a
great get right spot. And then you add in the
fact that any team that wants to run the ball
against his Cowboys team Ken and that's such a huge deal,
especially for.

Speaker 3 (42:56):
Guy like Jane Daniels that you've seen it.

Speaker 4 (42:58):
Like Jad said, he's looked differ in this year when
he's in a guy he's third and ten rather than
when he's third and five.

Speaker 3 (43:04):
So this is just a good match up for Wes
Washington team.

Speaker 4 (43:07):
And it's just interesting me that pros are coming in
so heavy on Dallas.

Speaker 3 (43:13):
I just I can't believe it. I thought this was going.

Speaker 4 (43:15):
To be, oh, Washington public and pros, but yeah, it's split.
It looks like it's gonna be the public on Washington
the pros are on Dallas.

Speaker 1 (43:26):
I think all those trends are because Dak was on
a better team than the Commanders for the almost the
entire time he's played, So.

Speaker 3 (43:33):
Teams are good. Yeah, that's fair though, that is fair.

Speaker 2 (43:37):
You know, I mean that's normally the case.

Speaker 1 (43:38):
Like it's Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, it's Broethlisberger against
the Browns, like you know, that's that's usually how it goes.
I'm agnostic on this game, don't have a strong opinion
one way or the other. Let's talk about Atlanta at
San Francisco, because the wise Guy's coming in on San Francisco.

Speaker 2 (44:03):
The other day when we were on the show.

Speaker 1 (44:05):
You completely talked yourself into the Falcons as we were
discussing the game. I'm still hesitant because of brock Perdit.
He practiced on Wednesday. George Kittle practiced. By the way,
we don't know what the status is going to be.
We don't know if they're gonna be playing. But to me,
I really don't want to bet into a game where
I still don't know who the starting quarterback is going

(44:25):
to be for the team that I think might have
a slight advantage if he's playing.

Speaker 2 (44:31):
So I don't want to bet in Atlanta.

Speaker 3 (44:37):
All right, that's fair.

Speaker 2 (44:38):
I just you love Atlanta.

Speaker 4 (44:41):
I don't know if I love him, but I do
love I love the number, and obviously it's moved here
at hard Rock.

Speaker 3 (44:47):
They're down to plus two. Yeah, two and a half.

Speaker 4 (44:50):
Like I talked about the time, It sounds stupid, but
I do think it's such a key number. At that number,
I was like feeling much better about the Falcons in
the sense that this game should be a better Like no,
Fred Warner, I can't describe you how big of a
deal it is, especially like.

Speaker 3 (45:06):
Again, I hate the whole film culture.

Speaker 4 (45:07):
I watch film no one else does, but if anyone
that does watch film, it's noticeable how important he is
to that team.

Speaker 3 (45:14):
He is the general.

Speaker 4 (45:15):
He he literally lines guys up. I felt like fifty
percent of their snaps, he's lining up their defenders time
exactly where they need to be. Because it's a young defense.
We talked coming in the year, it's like Salah has
got to do a miracle job here because it's such
a young defense. They lost Nick Bosa and Fred Warner,
two guys they literally could not lose. I mean just

(45:37):
since twenty nineteen, no Nick Bosa, they're seven and fourteen
against this, straight up seven and fourteen without Nick Bosa.
Now writing in Fred Warner, I can't get over how
big of a deal it is.

Speaker 1 (45:49):
And we don't even know how bad they are without
Fred Warner because he's never missed.

Speaker 4 (45:52):
Every leaps, yeah, never, never, And it's like I just
can't get over the impact that maybe they get away
with it here. But I think we're with an agree
it's our future bets, our positions on the forty nine.

Speaker 3 (46:02):
Ers, it's dead.

Speaker 4 (46:04):
Yeah, you're just to win a super Bowl, you need
at least one absolute, no doubt leader on that defense
to be there. And this is the team that could
not afford it, and now he has gone and fret,
and you know, it's it's interesting when you think about
this spot for this Falcons team, which again it's all

(46:25):
different because it's these are different quarterbacks, different pieces.

Speaker 3 (46:28):
But historically this is not a good spot for the Falcons. Right.

Speaker 4 (46:30):
They just had a huge win against the Bills at home,
a team above five hundred. Yeah, since twenty eighteen games
following that, when they play another team above five hundred,
they're eleven and twenty two against the spread historically this
Falcons team, So I get it.

Speaker 3 (46:44):
Historically not a great spot.

Speaker 4 (46:46):
Maybe I'm the sucker on the Joe public here, but
the line movement agrees with me. Like the two and
a halfs are disappearing, there's twos out there, there's one
and a half's out there now. So I can't be
totally Joe Public here taking this position on the Falcon
So I like it. Like Chad said, I'm betting it
for a lot of the wrong reasons. That's why I'm
not super confident about it. But at least I do

(47:06):
have a good model number on. I do make this
game a pick. I am getting two points of value
on Atlanta right now. So I'll take that position. But
I just don't think the books have reacted enough to
how big of a deal Fred Warner is. And yeah,
great rock Pretty coming back, Kittle coming back. Obviously that's
a huge deal, big upgrade to their offense. But I
don't know. Totals forty seven, maybe I'll take the over

(47:26):
as well. It's like, I just don't know if they
have a just enough to them losing their field general
in this spot.

Speaker 1 (47:32):
Well, look, you're the one thing you mentioned which I
just keep forgetting and I don't know why is Fred Warner?
So that does change the calculus for me a little
bit in that Oh wait a second, this defense, I
know they'll fix things. I know Silo is a great
coach and I got a lot of faith in him,
but this defense was really out of sorts after Fred
Warner went out. From a communication point of view, can

(47:55):
they fix that? I completely disagree with you. The absence
of Fred Warner is a huge, huge challenge for the
Niners to overcome. So maybe on Sunday we have a
different conversation. Yeah, it's all about that number, you know,
We'll see what happens on Sunday two games that were
not I don't think we're going to be able to
avoid the primetime games. First up, we've got Detroit as

(48:19):
a five and a half point favorite at home against
Tampa Bay. Opened at five and a half, got bet
down to four and a half. We loved it on
Tuesday when it was four and a half. We both
bet into it.

Speaker 2 (48:33):
At four and a half. It's now at five and
a half. Kind of a dead number. I'd still bet the.

Speaker 3 (48:40):
Key number, though. You want to get it before it gets.

Speaker 1 (48:42):
Yeah, oh yeah, you want to get it before it
gets to six. I mean between four and a half
and five and a half. I still like it at
five and a half. It's just I'm not going to
walk away from Dan Campbell and Jared Goff in a
dome with their offense basically healthy, in a get right
spot in prime time. They cover like seventy percent. You know,

(49:06):
I'm not even exaggerating. I'm rounding up a little bit,
but they just do like this is a smash cover
spot for the Detroit Lions. And I know it pains
us to bet against Baker who's been so good to us, but.

Speaker 2 (49:22):
Lions, Lions, Lions.

Speaker 4 (49:25):
Yeah, and I've talked about like Baker, I normally would
not be betting the spot because he's just been so
good to me as a dog. And you know, shout
to our guy, Evan Abrams had just amazing stat Baker
sixteen and eight against the spread as an underdog, covering
by five point six points per game. And you know

(49:45):
that's that's a real thing with him with the Bucks,
like he since he's been the Bucks the dog, he's
been incredibly profitable. Now let's talk the other side, the
Cyberg betting, and why this is such a good spot
for Golf and Campbell.

Speaker 3 (50:00):
So after a straight up loss Jared Goff.

Speaker 4 (50:03):
Campbell twenty and eight against the spread after a straight
up loss, and even better, they've won and covered eleven
straight since twenty twenty two.

Speaker 3 (50:13):
Yeah, a juggernut in this They.

Speaker 2 (50:16):
Are magical in this spot.

Speaker 1 (50:18):
Dan Campbell, in so many ways, I don't think it
can be overstated.

Speaker 2 (50:23):
Everyone clearly sees he's a great coach.

Speaker 1 (50:25):
But the way he is coaching this team and the
predictability of which they come back and don't get too
far down when they lose games, the way they lost
against Kansas City of their night, this is not a
team that got that takes it.

Speaker 2 (50:42):
That goes into the dumps. Do you know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (50:44):
Like psychologically they are like they are strong.

Speaker 2 (50:50):
Yeah, sorry I interrupt. I'm just so interesting.

Speaker 4 (50:52):
And I had a ton of pros reached out last
week about why they loved Detroit so much was because
it was a night primetime game. And I remember I
went to the numbers and I goes like, is it
really that big of a deal. It's insane how good
Campbell and golf are in these nighttime games, which I
didn't realize last week when we bet into it again
when I change my bet, But I just like these stats.
I find it interesting as a favorite in night games.

(51:14):
Golf nineteen and three. Yeah that's nine and oh, well
I guess nine to one or nine and oh he
has a favorite with the Lions. Ats y is golf
twenty five, ten and one against the spreads seventy one
percent since he's been with the Lions, covering by more
than nine five points per game.

Speaker 3 (51:31):
It's all there, people.

Speaker 4 (51:32):
It was scary not gonna lie last week betting against
that Lions team.

Speaker 3 (51:37):
It's the same feeling we have this week.

Speaker 4 (51:38):
It doesn't feel good going against Baker here, trust the number,
trust the spot. This does feel like a touchdown game.
So I do want people to grab it now. Like
you said, at five and a half, it's kind of
a dead number if you're betting the dog as a favorite.
It's a key number. You want to get this while
you still can. So I love that we were able
to give out the four and a half. Kind of
wish I made, Simon says, and I had the balls
to do it.

Speaker 3 (51:57):
But I thought professional money was going to bet down.
I really did.

Speaker 4 (52:01):
I thought professional public of coming on Tampa. It's totally
the other way. It's like eighty percent of the bets,
eighty percent of the money is all on Detroit side.
So I don't think it's gonna come down people. I
just don't email. All the money's coming and still going up.
So I just want you guys to get it before
it gets a six and that key number.

Speaker 1 (52:21):
Yeah, we're not going to be able to avoid that one.
I don't know how I'm going to get any sleep
over the weekend. Last game on the board, Houston. I
loved it the other day, A plus three and a half.
I nearly made it Chad's choice. They're visiting Seattle late
night Monday night doubleheader. I'm totally opposed to it. I
could go Troy, I've been crazy on this idea.

Speaker 3 (52:41):
But.

Speaker 1 (52:43):
I like, until this morning, I was surprised and concerned
that it did not move from three and a half
it has down to three, and then this morning it did,
and so uh, that was kind of the validation you know, I.

Speaker 2 (52:56):
Needed that I need.

Speaker 1 (52:59):
I need validation and positive feedback all the time in
every way, and moving that that, moving from three and
a half to three was the validation I needed on
a Thursday morning.

Speaker 2 (53:09):
So I feel great. I feel great. I love it.
Let's bet it. It's already bet for me at three
and a half.

Speaker 1 (53:15):
We're gonna put it in the contest. Someone's gonna watch
this game. Not gonna be me.

Speaker 2 (53:18):
I wake up Tuesday morning and be surprised.

Speaker 4 (53:21):
Yeah, I love love this match up for this Houston defense.
You know they have a number one shut down corner.
Hopefully no one's been able to do it.

Speaker 3 (53:30):
He can.

Speaker 4 (53:31):
He can shut down Jayasien and that that to me,
will be a big deal to see how Sam Donald
does without his safety valve, because every time they need
a third down, he just goes to him and it's
it's working, like Jackson said, with a jibba top two,
top of three receiver in football right now, he's just
playing out of his mind and Sam Donald is feeding him.
So we got the right matchup. We have a shutdown

(53:52):
corner in this matchup. We have a D line in
Houston that can get pressure, which we know Sam Donald
does not like. With four right, they don't need to
rush five they can. And the trends, like the trends
here are just incredible where I know people have talked
a little bit more about it the general public, but
the McDonald on the road thing is real. This guy

(54:14):
and his teams are different teams on the road, we're
at home. In his career, he's four and eight straight up,
three to nine against the spread. Again, short, small sample,
but this is getting into year two now and these
things are holding true. So I like it a lot
for the Texans. And then we add in the fact
that you know they they had a bye week, and

(54:38):
when you're having these early bye weeks in the year,
it is such a big deal. And you can see
with certain teams they do have their legs back. And
when you look at these numbers on the data, and
it's like, okay, let's look at teams that you know,
they played a primetime game, right, their last game was
a primetime game, and they had a bye week, and
now they're coming back after fifteen days Is that too

(55:00):
much rest? So teams with a total of fifteen days
off and then they're on the road since two thousand
and three, twenty and eleven against the spread in this exact.

Speaker 3 (55:09):
Spot, so they get up for it.

Speaker 4 (55:12):
There's no dragging their feet, right, It's not like they're
at home, you know, going through the motions. They're on
the road in a tense environment, and they're historically these
teams get ready to play in these spots. So, like
Chad said, it's it's really about the number three and
a half. Such a great number here for this Houston team,
this defense against the Seattle team that is it very talented.
They're warranted that number, but it's a little inflated, feels

(55:34):
a little overpriced. And the fact that there's a rest
of sparency here, the fact that you know, Seattle is
just a different team now at home, it's like all
of us we're still living the Beast Quake era, right,
We just remember that Seattle, New Orleans States.

Speaker 3 (55:47):
That's that home field advantage. It has not been true
over the last couple of years. That's not been the
case these last couple of years. So three and a
half key number.

Speaker 4 (55:56):
Chad said, we might be on two Monday night games
in our contest.

Speaker 2 (56:00):
I don't know what we're gonna talk about it on
Sunday night.

Speaker 4 (56:03):
We'll be fired up. Hopefully we're not sitting there own three.
They're dying to go two and oh on Monday night.

Speaker 2 (56:08):
Well, you might miss the show because you're getting a haircut.

Speaker 1 (56:10):
If that's the case, Simon, Simon, I'm going to recap
everything that we're thinking about for Sunday morning in a second,
but first, give me your biggest bets right now.

Speaker 3 (56:20):
Pull up those pants and be a man.

Speaker 4 (56:23):
I've taken a pretty large position here on this Houston game,
Detroit game, Chargers, Vikings, Tennessee. I'm probably gonna get there.
I don't know about Atlanta yet, but I'm like, the
more I talk about the more I start to love it.
So yeah, as you city right now, like my biggest
positions if you can get to Houston three and a half,
join me lines as long as we're getting under six,

(56:44):
that's gonna be one of my bigger positions. And uh,
you know, we'll see about this Tennessee line, Like I
have a lot on the sevens. If it gets six
and a half, I won't be putting that much into it.
If it's if it's all six and a half across
the board comes Sunday, it won't be one of my
bigger bets. We city right now, I've taken a pretty
large position on this Tennessee team a plus seven.

Speaker 2 (57:02):
I love that.

Speaker 1 (57:04):
It's one of the rare weeks where I think you
and I are completely in lockstep, like there might not
need to be any convincing when it gets to Sunday.

Speaker 2 (57:15):
Well, we'll see. I think there might be one game
that requires a little bit of convincing.

Speaker 1 (57:22):
My dog blocks your dog, your dog blocks mon dog.
Our money line, round robin, underdog parlay. This is who
I put in Vikings, Titans, Jets, Falcons, and Texans.

Speaker 4 (57:42):
Let's take out uh Tennessee and put in Dallas. That's
asking a lot that win back Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (57:50):
My on deck was the Cowboys, the Cowboys, the Colts,
and the Jacks.

Speaker 2 (57:56):
So I'm happy to take out and again.

Speaker 3 (57:58):
We hit last week.

Speaker 4 (57:59):
Finally the Dogs came through and we hit last week
that Chicago.

Speaker 1 (58:04):
I was having a hard time with the favorites probably,
to be honest, I couldn't figure out who I wanted
to put in there.

Speaker 2 (58:08):
Who do you think?

Speaker 4 (58:09):
Well, first of one, with the record show you did
miss I did give out the Rams last week?

Speaker 2 (58:13):
Oh did I miss that?

Speaker 3 (58:15):
Okay? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (58:15):
Which is again, as long as the fans bet it
and made some money off of That's all I honestly
care about. Because I'm betting this soft too, And it's
like I couldn't believe I bet it and then didn't
give them a show. It's like, how did I? How
did I miss that one? Yeah, it's it's an interesting
week for favorites. You know, I'm not going to put
the Chiefs in and minus eight fifty, But if you
want to do the same thing I did with Green

(58:38):
Bay take them down to minus five and a half,
I'd be willing to put that in.

Speaker 3 (58:43):
If people hear this in time.

Speaker 4 (58:44):
If you want to get Pittsburgh in there minus two seven,
even though it's like a trap spot, very stinky, it's
still worth the value to me getting them in there.
But let's get to the actual ones we're going to
put in. So give me the Bears minus two twenty five.
I know it's not ideally the best spot, but still
Spencer Rattler on the road, guys only won won one
game in his career. We got to take the Bears

(59:06):
in that spot, especially at minus two twenty five. Patriots
they're minus three forty five. I'm not crazy about that one.
It feels like that's that's been bet up. I mean
it's it's literally getting nine percent of the money in
the bets right now, so that is that is pretty crazy.
But we don't We only have so many options, so
we have to put that one in. Yeah, give me
the Chargers minus one thirty. We really like that spot

(59:28):
for the Chargers team. That'll help us eat up some
of these big chalk favorites we're taking. Which again, Green Bay,
we can put them in there. They're minus three forty five.
I know you love Denver. I'm on board with it.
They're minus two sixty. And the last one we have
to get in there Detroit minus wow, minus two fifty
right now, so that's six yeah, yeah, because I want

(59:51):
to put I want to put them in case people
miss between the if you don't want to put the
Steelers in, if you don't put.

Speaker 3 (59:56):
The Chiefs adjusted line in, I want to give out
a plenty of options.

Speaker 1 (01:00:00):
That's six after those two Green Bay Bears, Patriots, Chargers,
Detroit and Denver.

Speaker 3 (01:00:06):
I like it again.

Speaker 4 (01:00:07):
I did six last week. I'll do six again this week.
We've been talking about it. It's been really good for
the favorites. Last week we got some really good, out
outright dog wins, but still favorites this year.

Speaker 3 (01:00:19):
It's overwhelming how much they're they're winning out right.

Speaker 2 (01:00:23):
All right.

Speaker 1 (01:00:24):
So the underdog parlay Vikings, Cowboys, Jets, Falcons, Texans, the
favorite parlay.

Speaker 2 (01:00:34):
We're going big.

Speaker 1 (01:00:35):
If you can get the Chiefs minus five and a
half and you can get the Steelers tonight Thursday Night Football,
grab it. Otherwise the Packers, the Bears, the Broncos, the Chargers,
the Patriots, the Lions. I mean, we're out of survivor.
But if we were playing, I would say the Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (01:01:00):
I don't hate it.

Speaker 4 (01:01:01):
I still have a couple of lefts. I might put
Chiefs in one of them. I'm not, like Chad said,
this is probably tougher week. So that's probably the safest
option to take. I do have two of them that
like I need to use I already you know, I
want to save the Chiefs. So I'm taking the Patriots,
but I'm with Chad. Safest one this week for survivor feels.

Speaker 1 (01:01:24):
Like the Chiefs sharp versus square. We both won last week.
I had the Panthers, you had the Chiefs. I defer
to you, good friend.

Speaker 4 (01:01:36):
Uh, God, this is a tough one.

Speaker 3 (01:01:42):
I guess I gotta do it, gotta gotta take the lines.
Give me the Lions minus five and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:01:50):
God, you know what. That's that's fine, that's fine.

Speaker 3 (01:01:53):
I almost say the Chargers.

Speaker 2 (01:01:54):
But I'm surprised you didn't do the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (01:01:56):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:01:56):
I just feel more confident about feel safe about those
golf stats.

Speaker 3 (01:02:00):
He's just the moneymaker in these spots.

Speaker 1 (01:02:01):
I'm taking Houston. I'll take the plus three for me.
It came down to Houston, the Chargers, and the Lions.
So since you took the Lions, I don't love. I
don't love the Chargers, you know too much, So I'm
taking Houston at plus three. The games that I think
we're gonna have a conversation about Cleveland minus two and

(01:02:22):
a half, Tennessee plus seven, Detroit minus five and a half,
Houston plus three three and a half if we can
get it, and the Chargers minus one and a half.
I think we're gonna want to see what's happening on
Sunday with Minnesota. I think we're gonna want to see

(01:02:42):
what's happening with Atlanta and the Niners. And I think
we're gonna want to see what's happening with the Saints.
I think they'll still I think they're still going to
be in the conversation, to be honest.

Speaker 3 (01:02:52):
Yeah, no, we again, it's it's always scary. Like last week.

Speaker 4 (01:02:56):
I you know, we had a tough get into the five.
This week it feels like you have like two or
three rounds to kick to the curb comes Sunday.

Speaker 1 (01:03:02):
Yeah, yeah, all right. This has been Sharper Square, part
of the Volume podcast Network. We will be back on
Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You're going to get
to easdrop on an intimate conversation between me and my
bff and we're going to make utterly human decisions and
be miserable the rest of the day. We will be
back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven point thirty

(01:03:25):
pm Eastern to recap.

Speaker 2 (01:03:26):
All the misery that will be live.

Speaker 1 (01:03:28):
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video,
subscribe to the channel. Also, download some Spotify Apple Pods
wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe me this
spot stars state whatever you want, feedback is it?

Speaker 2 (01:03:40):
Gift?

Speaker 1 (01:03:41):
Until next time, Love you,