Kickoff approaches for NFL Week 7, and betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter are here to deliver their final five against the spread contest bets. After all their picks and predictions this week, they deliver their very best bets, including Dak Prescott's Dallas Cowboys hosting Jayden Daniels’ Washington Commanders, the Carolina Panthers visiting the New York Jets, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots at the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts vs. LA Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs, plus Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football. Our expert NFL gamblers also provide betting picks for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume
0:03:00 - start
0:04:30 - MIAMI DOLPHINS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
0:07:10 - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS
0:09:25 - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS LA CHARGERS
0:13:04 - TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS DETROIT LIONS
0:20:24 - HOUSTON TEXANS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
0:22:25 - WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS DALLAS COWBOYS
0:29:00 FINAL WEEK 7 BETS
-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bat. We
are part of the Volume podcast and network. This is
the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman and I'm
joined as always by my BFF, my companion, my confadre
(00:22):
professional betterssignment hunter HEADO.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
So, I man, good morning, Chad, dude.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
I always feel like on Sunday mornings. I get up,
I'm fresh as a daisy, I shower, I shave, I'm stretched,
I'm ready to go, and you are looking for the
nearest way to collapse after.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
God knows how many hours are being awake.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
I know I don't want to. I don't want to
complain too much because I'm sure people a cick ofvite.
But yeah, this is uh. I like doing this because
we honestly do this. And I take a power nap after,
so I'm like, this is the best. I'm very excited
for the next hour because I get thirty minutes of
sleep before heading down to l.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Well, let's get into it.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
This is the strip down in the room eavesdropping version
of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going to try
it to nail down our final five picks. Now that
we know about injuries, of which there are many, lineups
have been set. Lines are moving, Simon, here we go.
These are the games that we zeroed in on the
other day. Plus, we're gonna have to get to the
(01:23):
rock and the hard place. I think we got four
we like, we're gonna have to find one that we
can throw in first. One up, Mammi Dolphins visiting the
Cleveland Browns. The Browns are two and a half point favorites. Look,
this line has kind of stayed steady all week. I
(01:44):
loved it early in the week. On Tuesday it was
Chad's choice. I still loved it on Thursday, even though
I started to waiver. You talked me off the ledge.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
It's inching towards three. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
Man like Joe Flacco lighting up the Steelers on on
Thursday night just makes me realize how much more incompetent
this Browns team is and the management is than we
even thought.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
But we still got to put it in. That's my take.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Unless you feel like, oh my god, everything I'm here
in the past forty eight hours is walk away.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
From this Browns team.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
Because sometimes when we are so confident we end up
having some blind spots.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Yeah, I'm I'm honestly ashamed. I didn't give up the
under that that was a bad mess by me just
because I love a good wind, weather under especially weather
it's affected by the Great Lakes. It's like unique spots.
They're saying, it's not supposed to be as bad. That's
my hesitation in your chat is you want to bet
a rookie as a favorite in forty permur, wind, gust,
(02:52):
potential rainstorm not ideal. And you know we can lie
to ourselves to say we're simply betting the Browns defense here,
but we're gonna need points. We are gonna need this
rookie to make plays in this bad weather oday.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
This this is NFL football. I mean, this is football.
And they in the pits are the Big West. That's
what it's all about. That's the worst thing. Thus, guards
box us up there and don't stay here for stuff.
We don't need that, right. If you can't get out
in the elements.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
You shouldn't even go to the game. Historically, this has
not been a good spot for TUA. On the road
in bad weather. Yeah, like I want to be on
the Browns. But it's hard not to see you throw
your model out the window there. You're not really betting
into something can be predicted here because of the randomness
that is highly highly highly windy games like this is
(03:40):
they say there's gonna be forty the prior wind gust
in this matchup, so we can still do it. It's
just you're throwing a huge variable here, and it's that's
that's a little bit of nerve wrecking here where it's
like I felt confidence because we had the defense. This
is a great matchup for the Browns offense because this
Miami defense is so bad. But we could we could
get unlucky of the weather. That's my only fear with
(04:01):
this one.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
All right, Well, it sounds like we're both trying to
tuck ourselves out of this game, and I don't know why.
I don't know what's going on. But we haven't even
talked since Thursday, and we're both feeling the anxiety juju
right now. So we're gonna come back to it. We're
going to put a pin in it. We don't know
if it's going to make the final five yet. Philadelphia
(04:23):
at Minnesota. Minnesota was plus two and a half it's
now down to two. We've been betting it at two
and a half. This was your Simon says, even when
we didn't know who the quarterback was going to be,
we were hoping it would be Carson Wentz. We got
a little nervous when we heard it might be JJ McCarthy.
(04:43):
It is Carson Wentz. That's I think why it has
moved because professionals like the idea of Wentz more than Jj.
We're getting it at two and a half in the contest,
we've been betting it at two and a half. I'm
feeling pretty confident about this one right now.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I'm still into it, but not as confident because the
Eagles did get unfortunately get cleared a bunch of guys
like Carter I read this morning, probably gonna play, Quinnon, Mitchell,
probably gonna play. That's that is a big deal because
we were about to have a huge advantage on that
back end with this Vikings team. So I'm still on Minnesota,
still bet into. Like Chad said, a couple of books
(05:23):
have popped back to two and a half. Hard Rock
is still sitting at the plus two, so you can
shop around five Minnesota plus two and a half I'm
still on it. If it makes it one of our five,
I'm okay with that. But yeah, it's it's not ideal.
We were gonna be in a really nice spot. There
is no Carter, no Quinn and Mitchell against his Vikings offense.
But yeah, now it's it's an interesting spot. Like we
(05:44):
talked about, it's gonna be the biggest, one of the
biggest public sides in Philadelphia. So we already know we're
gonna be on the side of the books need we're
getting a decent number. The question is are are we
Are we selling this team at their lowest point, and
that's the fear here. But like I said, it's you're
looking at the splits right now. It is all Philly money.
(06:07):
So pretty interesting that this number, like you said, a
couple of books has in Budge, there's still there's still
a plus one and a half minus one and a
half on this Eagles team, even after all the news
came out of them getting Carter back in Quinya and Mitchell.
So I like it still, But again there's there's it's
not going as perfectly as we were hoping it was
going to go for us in this matchup, all.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Right, zero for two on the games we were dead
set on Tuesday Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
That we're now wavering on.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
On Sunday, Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Chargers, another one
we felt great about. And look, the line has moved
in our direction. It took a while, but the money,
professional money has finally come in on the Chargers.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
It was one and a half now it's two.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Look, the offensive line issues for the Chargers I think
are so significant. We know we're sort of doing this
because we think there has to be a regression for
Daniel Jones and we want to get ahead of that.
We think the Colts are overvalued. That's what we're playing here.
(07:13):
We're not playing that.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
We love the Chargers. I feel a little bit.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
More confident that the line has moved in the Chargers
direction because we know that the Colts are going to
be the public dog this week.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Yeah, and that's that's been interesting to watch this line movement.
Like Chad said, it's shockingly moved towards us, which I
thought I was gonna go other way. I thought this
is gonna be one of the games I would flip
because the public is just so in love with this
Colts team and not that it's laziest being like, well
they're the five and one team, why they're the dog here.
But I think it's the classic case of they don't
(07:47):
look at the matchups they've played, the teams they've beaten.
We talked about it. To me, the biggest advantage for
the Chargers here is the secondary of this Colts team,
like they just got lit up by Burssette and backups,
like he didn't have Marvin Harris in that game. I'm
looking at the I'm looking at the injury part right here.
They should have everyone. I know Joe Alt might not
(08:08):
play here, but Johnston should be back. He should have
lad Keenan Allen and Johnston as wide receivers. That's a
huge deal for Herbert. So I don't know, is there
a guy I'm missing on the cold second and give
us problems in the past rush Like you know, they
do have some guys with some sext and they have
been able to get pressure, But there is no Max
Crosby type here, So I might I might have a
(08:29):
blind spot here. It might be too invested in this
Chargers team and just just overvaluing them in this matchup.
But I've talked about I just horriball losing four straight
against the spread. I did go back and look chat.
It's never happened in his NFL professional career. This number
being under three. I think it's a good number. Like
I just think the Chargers are undervalued against the Colts
(08:51):
team that how can we not sell this team. They've
They've been beating up on bad teams. This is a
well coached, good team. I know it's not a big name.
He's an old man. Khalil Mack is coming back as well.
Those things do matter. Like, that's another pass rush for
this Chargers team against Daniel Jones, who we've seen the stats.
He's incredible against the Blitz. So we're gonna need them
(09:12):
to get pressure with four. I gotta do it. I
gotta stay on the Chargers side so we can force
this one in. I'm with it. Like I said, there's
a lot of games I really like this this week.
They're minus one and a half in our contest yet,
so we're getting a good number. It's a good matchup.
I do like the Chargers.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Yeah, I don't think we're forcing it in. We gotta
find five. We've been on the Chargers all week in
the contest, it's the best number I'm feeling, I guess
most comfortable about the Chargers given the injury status and
the matchup. My biggest concern is the offensive line. It's
a concern everywhere. But I like being against the public
(09:51):
in this game.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
I like faith. I like fading a.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Very public dog. So right now, the Chargers are in.
We're still wavering on the Viking and the Browns. The
two Monday night games. We were feeling very confident about
all week, and the numbers have moved aggressively in our direction.
We are getting what they like to say is closing
(10:15):
line value. Right now, let's talk about Tampa Bay and Detroit.
Detroit is now a six point favorite in this game.
We got them at four and a half. They are
four and a half in the contest. This is after
the news that Mike Evans is back for the Bucks,
after the news that ameccha Abuka is likely to play
(10:37):
for the Bucks. So what we are betting on here
is Dan Campbell and Jared Goff basically being seventy percent
against the spread in this situation, you.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
Can name it.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Coming off a loss, playing in a dome, playing at home,
playing in prime time, you name it. This is a
spot where you're back in this team. We're getting great
line value. I have seen no reason to talk ourselves
out of this game.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
I see if you.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
I was not expecting a Mecca a Buka to be
in this game. That's a huge deal when you're missing
basically two thirds of your secondary, like Detroit is against
Baker here. That's not good. So I hate it. I
can't believe he might actually play this game. This guy
is supposed to have a Hamsterrick injury, so I mean,
he's just a mecha boo because a freak. So I'm
hoping they're just trying to scare us off and you know,
(11:28):
making Dan Campbell prepare for a guy that's not ever
gonna play. That could just be what Tampa is doing here,
write a little game and ship. But yeah, I just well,
as soon as I heard he might play in this game,
I'm just like, why did I make this my favorite
bet on Thursday? And like, there's so many games I
like this week. But like Chad said, I don't know,
we avoid it. It's minus four and a half. I
(11:50):
bet heavily into this one, not at four and a half,
at five and a half. So you know, you could
say it's not that big of a deal, it's just
a point. It's like it's crossing key numbers. It is
a big deal. You know, this might not be in
our biggest public play of the week. It is. Everybody
is just coming in on Detroit with us, which I'm
shocked by. I thought Tampa would be a really big
(12:10):
public dog. You know, some books they still are right,
some books do need Detroit. But yeah, I'm I'm shocked
this number has gone up to six. Like Chad said,
they they gave up the info. These guys might play.
A couple of books jumped to six and a half,
so it's you. It's very bizarre with the professionals coming
heavy on the lines even though they know a mecha
(12:33):
Buca might play. Mike Evans is definitely gonna play. You know,
I just expected people to love Baker at this back door.
It's going the other way. Like you said, Detroit, it's
it's moving their direction. A bunch of books a pop
six and a half. There's one book out there still
five and a half. So can't deny it. Like I
like it, I'm on it. I'm just again we've been
(12:55):
so well. I'm trying to see if I can avoid
these traps we're walking into because we're gonna step in
a couple of them. It's just hard half that we're in.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
With the Chargers multiple times.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
Yeah, so it's tough where it's like I'm trying to
I'm not trying to think myself, but it's like this
this line movement. All it does is give me more
confidence because it's there's pros on both sides this one.
The pros obviously that are really invested, are coming in
on Detroit rather than the Bucks. Like the pros that
are betting the Bucks, they're just betting small amounts. The
(13:25):
guys who like Detroit, they're coming in pretty heavy on
this side. So I'll stay with it. Like you said,
it's four and a half in the contest. We love
line value. That's that's a lot of line value right there.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Detroit is in, the Chargers are in.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
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Speaker 3 (15:02):
Or Virginia.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Houston at Seattle another one that has moved in the direction.
I've loved it all week. I haven't really found a
reason to walk away from it. That the line is
three and a half in the contest, we're getting a
half point of value.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
I don't think it's gonna to me.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
You know, going from three and a half to three
and getting the hook at three is as big as
getting a point and a half in other scenarios. This
to me is massive. I think it's going to be
a close game. The Seahawks have not been as good
at home. The Texans have been off. The Seahawks just
(15:48):
had a massive win on the road in which they
lit up the Jags. This feels to me like we
got the value in the Texans.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
We want to maintain that value.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
You.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
Even though I won't be able to watch this game,
which is probably better for me, I still feel like
the Texans are the side, and we can't talk ourselves
out of it.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Yeah, just a good game. I probably could find a way,
But no, I'm there's not that much to say. We're
getting a great number, great defense, great matchup scheme wise,
they matchup well against the Seahawks team. And you know
Whetherspoon might be back for the Seahawks, that is a
big deal. You know. They You're going against a passer
that wants to push the ball downfield. That's that's what
CJ likes to do. So yeah, it's an interesting matchup.
(16:33):
Like Chet said, it's all about the hook. We're getting
three and a half. I probably would still take Houston
our contest if it was three. That's that's how confident
I am just in having that key number in this
matchup of two teams that I think it's gonna be
defensive battle. I mean, the last time I looked, the
total was like forty. So yep, can't can't avoid it
too mony night games here we go.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
No, it's it's gonna be brutal, all right, are rocking
a hard place hard better the week.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
A rock.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
The Washington Commanders at the Dallas Cowboys. I'm highlighting this
basically because again people know we play in a contest,
those lines lock midweek. In the contest, this line is
Cowboys plus two and a half At hard Rock, the
Cowboys are currently one point favorites, so it has flipped
(17:30):
three and a half points across zero Cowboys from underdogs
two favorites.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Part of that, I.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
Think is because wise guy Money has been coming in
and the Cowboys all week, and now we've got confirmation
from yesterday. No Terry McLaurin, no Deebo, Samuel Look. Matt
Eberflus is a terrible defensive coordinator who does not make
adjustments no matter who he's playing, and he plays a
soft zone defense which plays to Jaden Daniels strength. I
(18:01):
just want to be Devil's advocate here for a second
about the scheme and the matchup, But from a numbers
point of view, it's basically flipped. It's three and a
half points according to hard Rock, four points in other places.
You like the Commanders all week. I feel like I
need your take on this because the CLV is extraordinary.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Yeah, and I'm I should listen to pros. Didn't didn't
realize uh Deebo was gonna miss as well. As Terry.
That's just I don't know. That has to be a
big deal when you're number one now has become Luke
McCaffrey can't act like that doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.
And sure you know Diggs hurt himself so he won't
be in this game as well. For Dallas, like their
secondary is just atrocious.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Doesn't matter, Like you know, it doesn't matter who's playing
that secondary. Their scheme is so bad, Like who cares?
Speaker 2 (18:57):
I don't know. I think it does matter. But you've
seen the total come down, Like again, even though all
the money is coming on the over, it's calmed down.
I gave it out. I think it was fifty fifty
five and a half. Yeah, some books are down to
fifty three at this point. So yeah, like you said
that there's value on Dallas here, I'm in a weird
spot where I haven't taken any position on it, but
(19:17):
we're strictly betting it because the line value and it
being plus two and a half, So at the end
of the day that would have to be your call.
I just I don't have a read on it. We're
simply playing it because it is a good number. And
like we said, the professionals. That's the side they were on.
I said that on Thursday. I believe that the pros
were coming in on Dallas. They knew something, and I
just didn't have a good info and I obviously missed
(19:38):
that number.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
All right, So right now we're locked in on Detroit,
we're locked in on Houston, and we're locked in on
the Chargers. The last game I want to raise, and
then we got to find two games from I think
a choice of four is New England at Tennessee. This
was our big balls bet of the week, the line
of seven. Do you have enough balls to put it
(20:02):
in the final five? It is seven and a half
in the contest.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yeah, auto play, waiting for you to bring it up.
There's not much talk about here. You can go back
with star shows Tennessee. Seven and a half. Got it?
Got to be in one over five?
Speaker 3 (20:14):
All right, So then that's great. We got four?
Speaker 2 (20:18):
Is it?
Speaker 3 (20:19):
We got four?
Speaker 2 (20:23):
Let's tuckle the games you're avoiding here? Jets plus one
and a half? No, no, you know you're supposed to
bet it. I don't want to bet it either. I'm
okay if you avoid.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
It, but you're going to bring up the Bears in
the Saints.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
You gotta bring up the Bears in the Saint Saints
or plus five and a half. I mean, you can
look at the live lines, I believe, yeah, four down.
Speaker 3 (20:42):
Actually there's some places it's three and a half.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Just like Cleveland. It's a bad weather game, So could
that benefit this Saints team that's an indoor team, And
is Caleb going to struggle on this weather worse than
Spencer Rattler? Again, how does anyone know that? Like, there's
just no no predictive analysis with that one. But like
me and Ched said during the week, this was a
(21:06):
Saint's number, This was a Saint side. The Bears are
not good enough to be a five and a half
point favorite over a Saints team that's just not that
much worse of them. So I'm not checked to the
line movement. I just thought it was really interesting that
in our contest that they were plus five and a half.
That talk about line value, they are down to three
and a half. But it's another game where it's like,
(21:28):
you know, obviously, if I'm betting it, I feel much
more comfortable taking the dog, especially with bad weather in
this matchup. But is it one of my five favorite
bets chat. I don't know. I just I doubt I
had to bring it up just because of the line movement.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
No, no, I get it, and I saw it this morning too,
and I knew we were going to discuss it. My
take on the Bears right now is this, to me,
thinking about this as a Bears fan, maybe one of
the most important games they've had, probably in five years.
Speaker 3 (21:59):
I'll tell you why this is the moment.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Are the Bears a good team that can manage their
emotions and come back from a stirring victory and beat
a team that they're.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
Supposed to beat.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Or are they a team that is still up and down,
good coaching, good talent, but undisciplined, still making mistakes that
can't move on in a short week and really beat
a highly competitive, scrappy team. That's it. That's the narrative
for this game. We don't know that yet. So how
(22:38):
comfortable are we betting one side or the other? I'm
not comfortable betting either. I think we're having a conversation
right now about Cleveland, Minnesota and Dallas, and.
Speaker 3 (22:54):
I still think it's Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Okay. I'll tell you what the five I put in
early in the week even though I did say I
was on Washington, it was Houston plus three and a half,
it was Detroit plus four and a half or minus
four and a half. Surprisingly, I did put Dallas in
early in the week of plus two and a half,
interesting Chargers minus one and a half, and then obviously
Tennessee plus seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
So so it's really coming down too.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
If you do you want to switch out Dallas for Cleveland,
like that could be the one we dodged. Because right
now the Cowboys they're catching seventy three percent of the money.
Eighty six percent of the money is on the Chargers.
I am shocked that much money is coming in on
that Chargers side. So people say we don't bet with
the public, those are two very public sides that we're on
(23:38):
right there. It's got to come back around. The public
has been getting killed. I mean yesterday, I think they
went zero to five once again against the top five
teams for college football, which was getting the most amount
of money. So it's just been professionals who have been
going against the public have just been cashing huge. So
we could be stepping into it here, But I like
(23:58):
trusting on my early week pick because it's before I
get all this bullshit in my head, all this noise
from the weekend of all these different teams. And yeah,
if you want to switch Dallas for Cleveland again, I'm
betting to Cleveland way more than I have any money
invested in the Cowboys. If you want to own that one,
I am happy to make that switch.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Let's do it.
Speaker 1 (24:19):
I got I just feel so much better betting a
good defense against a terrible Miami team and a two
quarterback who doesn't travel. We're going for Cleveland. I feel
good about it, all right. Our final five Cleveland minus
two and a half, the LA Chargers minus one and
a half, the Tennessee Titans. That's right, the Tennessee Titans
(24:44):
plus seven and a half. Those are the three games
we got on Sunday, and then we're betting into the
Monday night football doubleheader. We got Detroit in the contest.
We play there at minus four and a half. That
is our line. They are now at six. I want
to play in Houston. We get them at three and
a half. They're at three.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
I think we both.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
Still be comfortable playing them at plus three. That is
the final list. One more time, Cleveland minus two and
a half, Tennessee plus seven and a half, Chargers minus
one and a half, Detroit minus four and a half,
Houston plus three and a half. We got there, brother,
(25:24):
I don't know. It's gonna be hard. It's gonna be
really it's gonna be a really tough day. This has
been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
We will be back.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
On Sharper Square YouTube tonight live at seven point thirty
to recap all the misery and glory of the day.
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple, Pose,
wherever you get your pause rate, review, subscribe, leave a
spot stars say whatever you want.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Feedback is the gift the two Tonight's love you
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bat. We
are part of the Volume podcast and network. This is
the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman and I'm
joined as always by my BFF, my companion, my confadre
(00:22):
professional betterssignment hunter HEADO.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
So, I man, good morning, Chad, dude.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
I always feel like on Sunday mornings. I get up,
I'm fresh as a daisy, I shower, I shave, I'm stretched,
I'm ready to go, and you are looking for the
nearest way to collapse after.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
God knows how many hours are being awake.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
I know I don't want to. I don't want to
complain too much because I'm sure people a cick ofvite.
But yeah, this is uh. I like doing this because
we honestly do this. And I take a power nap after,
so I'm like, this is the best. I'm very excited
for the next hour because I get thirty minutes of
sleep before heading down to l.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Well, let's get into it.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
This is the strip down in the room eavesdropping version
of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going to try
it to nail down our final five picks. Now that
we know about injuries, of which there are many, lineups
have been set. Lines are moving, Simon, here we go.
These are the games that we zeroed in on the
other day. Plus, we're gonna have to get to the
(01:23):
rock and the hard place. I think we got four
we like, we're gonna have to find one that we
can throw in first. One up, Mammi Dolphins visiting the
Cleveland Browns. The Browns are two and a half point favorites. Look,
this line has kind of stayed steady all week. I
(01:44):
loved it early in the week. On Tuesday it was
Chad's choice. I still loved it on Thursday, even though
I started to waiver. You talked me off the ledge.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
It's inching towards three. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
Man like Joe Flacco lighting up the Steelers on on
Thursday night just makes me realize how much more incompetent
this Browns team is and the management is than we
even thought.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
But we still got to put it in. That's my take.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Unless you feel like, oh my god, everything I'm here
in the past forty eight hours is walk away.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
From this Browns team.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
Because sometimes when we are so confident we end up
having some blind spots.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Yeah, I'm I'm honestly ashamed. I didn't give up the
under that that was a bad mess by me just
because I love a good wind, weather under especially weather
it's affected by the Great Lakes. It's like unique spots.
They're saying, it's not supposed to be as bad. That's
my hesitation in your chat is you want to bet
a rookie as a favorite in forty permur, wind, gust,
(02:52):
potential rainstorm not ideal. And you know we can lie
to ourselves to say we're simply betting the Browns defense here,
but we're gonna need points. We are gonna need this
rookie to make plays in this bad weather oday.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
This this is NFL football. I mean, this is football.
And they in the pits are the Big West. That's
what it's all about. That's the worst thing. Thus, guards
box us up there and don't stay here for stuff.
We don't need that, right. If you can't get out
in the elements.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
You shouldn't even go to the game. Historically, this has
not been a good spot for TUA. On the road
in bad weather. Yeah, like I want to be on
the Browns. But it's hard not to see you throw
your model out the window there. You're not really betting
into something can be predicted here because of the randomness
that is highly highly highly windy games like this is
(03:40):
they say there's gonna be forty the prior wind gust
in this matchup, so we can still do it. It's
just you're throwing a huge variable here, and it's that's
that's a little bit of nerve wrecking here where it's
like I felt confidence because we had the defense. This
is a great matchup for the Browns offense because this
Miami defense is so bad. But we could we could
get unlucky of the weather. That's my only fear with
(04:01):
this one.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
All right, Well, it sounds like we're both trying to
tuck ourselves out of this game, and I don't know why.
I don't know what's going on. But we haven't even
talked since Thursday, and we're both feeling the anxiety juju
right now. So we're gonna come back to it. We're
going to put a pin in it. We don't know
if it's going to make the final five yet. Philadelphia
(04:23):
at Minnesota. Minnesota was plus two and a half it's
now down to two. We've been betting it at two
and a half. This was your Simon says, even when
we didn't know who the quarterback was going to be,
we were hoping it would be Carson Wentz. We got
a little nervous when we heard it might be JJ McCarthy.
(04:43):
It is Carson Wentz. That's I think why it has
moved because professionals like the idea of Wentz more than Jj.
We're getting it at two and a half in the contest,
we've been betting it at two and a half. I'm
feeling pretty confident about this one right now.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I'm still into it, but not as confident because the
Eagles did get unfortunately get cleared a bunch of guys
like Carter I read this morning, probably gonna play, Quinnon, Mitchell,
probably gonna play. That's that is a big deal because
we were about to have a huge advantage on that
back end with this Vikings team. So I'm still on Minnesota,
still bet into. Like Chad said, a couple of books
(05:23):
have popped back to two and a half. Hard Rock
is still sitting at the plus two, so you can
shop around five Minnesota plus two and a half I'm
still on it. If it makes it one of our five,
I'm okay with that. But yeah, it's it's not ideal.
We were gonna be in a really nice spot. There
is no Carter, no Quinn and Mitchell against his Vikings offense.
But yeah, now it's it's an interesting spot. Like we
(05:44):
talked about, it's gonna be the biggest, one of the
biggest public sides in Philadelphia. So we already know we're
gonna be on the side of the books need we're
getting a decent number. The question is are are we
Are we selling this team at their lowest point, and
that's the fear here. But like I said, it's you're
looking at the splits right now. It is all Philly money.
(06:07):
So pretty interesting that this number, like you said, a
couple of books has in Budge, there's still there's still
a plus one and a half minus one and a
half on this Eagles team, even after all the news
came out of them getting Carter back in Quinya and Mitchell.
So I like it still, But again there's there's it's
not going as perfectly as we were hoping it was
going to go for us in this matchup, all.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Right, zero for two on the games we were dead
set on Tuesday Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
That we're now wavering on.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
On Sunday, Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Chargers, another one
we felt great about. And look, the line has moved
in our direction. It took a while, but the money,
professional money has finally come in on the Chargers.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
It was one and a half now it's two.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Look, the offensive line issues for the Chargers I think
are so significant. We know we're sort of doing this
because we think there has to be a regression for
Daniel Jones and we want to get ahead of that.
We think the Colts are overvalued. That's what we're playing here.
(07:13):
We're not playing that.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
We love the Chargers. I feel a little bit.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
More confident that the line has moved in the Chargers
direction because we know that the Colts are going to
be the public dog this week.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Yeah, and that's that's been interesting to watch this line movement.
Like Chad said, it's shockingly moved towards us, which I
thought I was gonna go other way. I thought this
is gonna be one of the games I would flip
because the public is just so in love with this
Colts team and not that it's laziest being like, well
they're the five and one team, why they're the dog here.
But I think it's the classic case of they don't
(07:47):
look at the matchups they've played, the teams they've beaten.
We talked about it. To me, the biggest advantage for
the Chargers here is the secondary of this Colts team,
like they just got lit up by Burssette and backups,
like he didn't have Marvin Harris in that game. I'm
looking at the I'm looking at the injury part right here.
They should have everyone. I know Joe Alt might not
(08:08):
play here, but Johnston should be back. He should have
lad Keenan Allen and Johnston as wide receivers. That's a
huge deal for Herbert. So I don't know, is there
a guy I'm missing on the cold second and give
us problems in the past rush Like you know, they
do have some guys with some sext and they have
been able to get pressure, But there is no Max
Crosby type here, So I might I might have a
(08:29):
blind spot here. It might be too invested in this
Chargers team and just just overvaluing them in this matchup.
But I've talked about I just horriball losing four straight
against the spread. I did go back and look chat.
It's never happened in his NFL professional career. This number
being under three. I think it's a good number. Like
I just think the Chargers are undervalued against the Colts
(08:51):
team that how can we not sell this team. They've
They've been beating up on bad teams. This is a
well coached, good team. I know it's not a big name.
He's an old man. Khalil Mack is coming back as well.
Those things do matter. Like, that's another pass rush for
this Chargers team against Daniel Jones, who we've seen the stats.
He's incredible against the Blitz. So we're gonna need them
(09:12):
to get pressure with four. I gotta do it. I
gotta stay on the Chargers side so we can force
this one in. I'm with it. Like I said, there's
a lot of games I really like this this week.
They're minus one and a half in our contest yet,
so we're getting a good number. It's a good matchup.
I do like the Chargers.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Yeah, I don't think we're forcing it in. We gotta
find five. We've been on the Chargers all week in
the contest, it's the best number I'm feeling, I guess
most comfortable about the Chargers given the injury status and
the matchup. My biggest concern is the offensive line. It's
a concern everywhere. But I like being against the public
(09:51):
in this game.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
I like faith. I like fading a.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Very public dog. So right now, the Chargers are in.
We're still wavering on the Viking and the Browns. The
two Monday night games. We were feeling very confident about
all week, and the numbers have moved aggressively in our direction.
We are getting what they like to say is closing
(10:15):
line value. Right now, let's talk about Tampa Bay and Detroit.
Detroit is now a six point favorite in this game.
We got them at four and a half. They are
four and a half in the contest. This is after
the news that Mike Evans is back for the Bucks,
after the news that ameccha Abuka is likely to play
(10:37):
for the Bucks. So what we are betting on here
is Dan Campbell and Jared Goff basically being seventy percent
against the spread in this situation, you.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
Can name it.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Coming off a loss, playing in a dome, playing at home,
playing in prime time, you name it. This is a
spot where you're back in this team. We're getting great
line value. I have seen no reason to talk ourselves
out of this game.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
I see if you.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
I was not expecting a Mecca a Buka to be
in this game. That's a huge deal when you're missing
basically two thirds of your secondary, like Detroit is against
Baker here. That's not good. So I hate it. I
can't believe he might actually play this game. This guy
is supposed to have a Hamsterrick injury, so I mean,
he's just a mecha boo because a freak. So I'm
hoping they're just trying to scare us off and you know,
(11:28):
making Dan Campbell prepare for a guy that's not ever
gonna play. That could just be what Tampa is doing here,
write a little game and ship. But yeah, I just well,
as soon as I heard he might play in this game,
I'm just like, why did I make this my favorite
bet on Thursday? And like, there's so many games I
like this week. But like Chad said, I don't know,
we avoid it. It's minus four and a half. I
(11:50):
bet heavily into this one, not at four and a half,
at five and a half. So you know, you could
say it's not that big of a deal, it's just
a point. It's like it's crossing key numbers. It is
a big deal. You know, this might not be in
our biggest public play of the week. It is. Everybody
is just coming in on Detroit with us, which I'm
shocked by. I thought Tampa would be a really big
(12:10):
public dog. You know, some books they still are right,
some books do need Detroit. But yeah, I'm I'm shocked
this number has gone up to six. Like Chad said,
they they gave up the info. These guys might play.
A couple of books jumped to six and a half,
so it's you. It's very bizarre with the professionals coming
heavy on the lines even though they know a mecha
(12:33):
Buca might play. Mike Evans is definitely gonna play. You know,
I just expected people to love Baker at this back door.
It's going the other way. Like you said, Detroit, it's
it's moving their direction. A bunch of books a pop
six and a half. There's one book out there still
five and a half. So can't deny it. Like I
like it, I'm on it. I'm just again we've been
(12:55):
so well. I'm trying to see if I can avoid
these traps we're walking into because we're gonna step in
a couple of them. It's just hard half that we're in.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
With the Chargers multiple times.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
Yeah, so it's tough where it's like I'm trying to
I'm not trying to think myself, but it's like this
this line movement. All it does is give me more
confidence because it's there's pros on both sides this one.
The pros obviously that are really invested, are coming in
on Detroit rather than the Bucks. Like the pros that
are betting the Bucks, they're just betting small amounts. The
(13:25):
guys who like Detroit, they're coming in pretty heavy on
this side. So I'll stay with it. Like you said,
it's four and a half in the contest. We love
line value. That's that's a lot of line value right there.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Detroit is in, the Chargers are in.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
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Speaker 3 (15:02):
Or Virginia.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Houston at Seattle another one that has moved in the direction.
I've loved it all week. I haven't really found a
reason to walk away from it. That the line is
three and a half in the contest, we're getting a
half point of value.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
I don't think it's gonna to me.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
You know, going from three and a half to three
and getting the hook at three is as big as
getting a point and a half in other scenarios. This
to me is massive. I think it's going to be
a close game. The Seahawks have not been as good
at home. The Texans have been off. The Seahawks just
(15:48):
had a massive win on the road in which they
lit up the Jags. This feels to me like we
got the value in the Texans.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
We want to maintain that value.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
You.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
Even though I won't be able to watch this game,
which is probably better for me, I still feel like
the Texans are the side, and we can't talk ourselves
out of it.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Yeah, just a good game. I probably could find a way,
But no, I'm there's not that much to say. We're
getting a great number, great defense, great matchup scheme wise,
they matchup well against the Seahawks team. And you know
Whetherspoon might be back for the Seahawks, that is a
big deal. You know. They You're going against a passer
that wants to push the ball downfield. That's that's what
CJ likes to do. So yeah, it's an interesting matchup.
(16:33):
Like Chet said, it's all about the hook. We're getting
three and a half. I probably would still take Houston
our contest if it was three. That's that's how confident
I am just in having that key number in this
matchup of two teams that I think it's gonna be
defensive battle. I mean, the last time I looked, the
total was like forty. So yep, can't can't avoid it
too mony night games here we go.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
No, it's it's gonna be brutal, all right, are rocking
a hard place hard better the week.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
A rock.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
The Washington Commanders at the Dallas Cowboys. I'm highlighting this
basically because again people know we play in a contest,
those lines lock midweek. In the contest, this line is
Cowboys plus two and a half At hard Rock, the
Cowboys are currently one point favorites, so it has flipped
(17:30):
three and a half points across zero Cowboys from underdogs
two favorites.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Part of that, I.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
Think is because wise guy Money has been coming in
and the Cowboys all week, and now we've got confirmation
from yesterday. No Terry McLaurin, no Deebo, Samuel Look. Matt
Eberflus is a terrible defensive coordinator who does not make
adjustments no matter who he's playing, and he plays a
soft zone defense which plays to Jaden Daniels strength. I
(18:01):
just want to be Devil's advocate here for a second
about the scheme and the matchup, But from a numbers
point of view, it's basically flipped. It's three and a
half points according to hard Rock, four points in other places.
You like the Commanders all week. I feel like I
need your take on this because the CLV is extraordinary.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Yeah, and I'm I should listen to pros. Didn't didn't
realize uh Deebo was gonna miss as well. As Terry.
That's just I don't know. That has to be a
big deal when you're number one now has become Luke
McCaffrey can't act like that doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.
And sure you know Diggs hurt himself so he won't
be in this game as well. For Dallas, like their
secondary is just atrocious.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Doesn't matter, Like you know, it doesn't matter who's playing
that secondary. Their scheme is so bad, Like who cares?
Speaker 2 (18:57):
I don't know. I think it does matter. But you've
seen the total come down, Like again, even though all
the money is coming on the over, it's calmed down.
I gave it out. I think it was fifty fifty
five and a half. Yeah, some books are down to
fifty three at this point. So yeah, like you said
that there's value on Dallas here, I'm in a weird
spot where I haven't taken any position on it, but
(19:17):
we're strictly betting it because the line value and it
being plus two and a half, So at the end
of the day that would have to be your call.
I just I don't have a read on it. We're
simply playing it because it is a good number. And
like we said, the professionals. That's the side they were on.
I said that on Thursday. I believe that the pros
were coming in on Dallas. They knew something, and I
just didn't have a good info and I obviously missed
(19:38):
that number.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
All right, So right now we're locked in on Detroit,
we're locked in on Houston, and we're locked in on
the Chargers. The last game I want to raise, and
then we got to find two games from I think
a choice of four is New England at Tennessee. This
was our big balls bet of the week, the line
of seven. Do you have enough balls to put it
(20:02):
in the final five? It is seven and a half
in the contest.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yeah, auto play, waiting for you to bring it up.
There's not much talk about here. You can go back
with star shows Tennessee. Seven and a half. Got it?
Got to be in one over five?
Speaker 3 (20:14):
All right, So then that's great. We got four?
Speaker 2 (20:18):
Is it?
Speaker 3 (20:19):
We got four?
Speaker 2 (20:23):
Let's tuckle the games you're avoiding here? Jets plus one
and a half? No, no, you know you're supposed to
bet it. I don't want to bet it either. I'm
okay if you avoid.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
It, but you're going to bring up the Bears in
the Saints.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
You gotta bring up the Bears in the Saint Saints
or plus five and a half. I mean, you can
look at the live lines, I believe, yeah, four down.
Speaker 3 (20:42):
Actually there's some places it's three and a half.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Just like Cleveland. It's a bad weather game, So could
that benefit this Saints team that's an indoor team, And
is Caleb going to struggle on this weather worse than
Spencer Rattler? Again, how does anyone know that? Like, there's
just no no predictive analysis with that one. But like
me and Ched said during the week, this was a
(21:06):
Saint's number, This was a Saint side. The Bears are
not good enough to be a five and a half
point favorite over a Saints team that's just not that
much worse of them. So I'm not checked to the
line movement. I just thought it was really interesting that
in our contest that they were plus five and a half.
That talk about line value, they are down to three
and a half. But it's another game where it's like,
(21:28):
you know, obviously, if I'm betting it, I feel much
more comfortable taking the dog, especially with bad weather in
this matchup. But is it one of my five favorite
bets chat. I don't know. I just I doubt I
had to bring it up just because of the line movement.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
No, no, I get it, and I saw it this morning too,
and I knew we were going to discuss it. My
take on the Bears right now is this, to me,
thinking about this as a Bears fan, maybe one of
the most important games they've had, probably in five years.
Speaker 3 (21:59):
I'll tell you why this is the moment.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Are the Bears a good team that can manage their
emotions and come back from a stirring victory and beat
a team that they're.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
Supposed to beat.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Or are they a team that is still up and down,
good coaching, good talent, but undisciplined, still making mistakes that
can't move on in a short week and really beat
a highly competitive, scrappy team. That's it. That's the narrative
for this game. We don't know that yet. So how
(22:38):
comfortable are we betting one side or the other? I'm
not comfortable betting either. I think we're having a conversation
right now about Cleveland, Minnesota and Dallas, and.
Speaker 3 (22:54):
I still think it's Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Okay. I'll tell you what the five I put in
early in the week even though I did say I
was on Washington, it was Houston plus three and a half,
it was Detroit plus four and a half or minus
four and a half. Surprisingly, I did put Dallas in
early in the week of plus two and a half,
interesting Chargers minus one and a half, and then obviously
Tennessee plus seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
So so it's really coming down too.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
If you do you want to switch out Dallas for Cleveland,
like that could be the one we dodged. Because right
now the Cowboys they're catching seventy three percent of the money.
Eighty six percent of the money is on the Chargers.
I am shocked that much money is coming in on
that Chargers side. So people say we don't bet with
the public, those are two very public sides that we're on
(23:38):
right there. It's got to come back around. The public
has been getting killed. I mean yesterday, I think they
went zero to five once again against the top five
teams for college football, which was getting the most amount
of money. So it's just been professionals who have been
going against the public have just been cashing huge. So
we could be stepping into it here, But I like
(23:58):
trusting on my early week pick because it's before I
get all this bullshit in my head, all this noise
from the weekend of all these different teams. And yeah,
if you want to switch Dallas for Cleveland again, I'm
betting to Cleveland way more than I have any money
invested in the Cowboys. If you want to own that one,
I am happy to make that switch.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Let's do it.
Speaker 1 (24:19):
I got I just feel so much better betting a
good defense against a terrible Miami team and a two
quarterback who doesn't travel. We're going for Cleveland. I feel
good about it, all right. Our final five Cleveland minus
two and a half, the LA Chargers minus one and
a half, the Tennessee Titans. That's right, the Tennessee Titans
(24:44):
plus seven and a half. Those are the three games
we got on Sunday, and then we're betting into the
Monday night football doubleheader. We got Detroit in the contest.
We play there at minus four and a half. That
is our line. They are now at six. I want
to play in Houston. We get them at three and
a half. They're at three.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
I think we both.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
Still be comfortable playing them at plus three. That is
the final list. One more time, Cleveland minus two and
a half, Tennessee plus seven and a half, Chargers minus
one and a half, Detroit minus four and a half,
Houston plus three and a half. We got there, brother,
(25:24):
I don't know. It's gonna be hard. It's gonna be
really it's gonna be a really tough day. This has
been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
We will be back.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
On Sharper Square YouTube tonight live at seven point thirty
to recap all the misery and glory of the day.
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple, Pose,
wherever you get your pause rate, review, subscribe, leave a
spot stars say whatever you want.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Feedback is the gift the two Tonight's love you
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